The poll was in the aftermath of the GOP convention and before the Biden announcement.
What have OGH and I told you about hypothetical polls.
Generally they are accurate
Generally they are untestable. Most hypotheticals do not become actual.
If the 2 candidates tested are the party leaders or nominees they are
So far the only national poll conducted in the immediate aftermath of Biden dropping out is that by Morning Consult. They wrote it up as follows: "Former President Donald Trump leads Harris by 2 percentage points, 47% to 45%, in our survey conducted after Biden announced his decision to step aside, marking an improvement from the 6-point margin Biden faced in our surveys conducted ahead of his exit from the race."
That's a marked improvement in the Democrats' polling with Harris as the assumed nominee, even at a point before it became clear to all that she would be the one replacing Biden. Bear in mind too that that latest poll was also conducted in the immediate aftermath of a week of wall to wall coverage of the Republican convention, that is what was still a very favourable polling window for the Republicans.
So the Democrats are back in the game and there's all to play for.
Trump is toast given that's post-convention and post-near-martyrdom. And he has lost the female vote by being trump and choosing Vance.
A potential rebellion by some Labour MPs over the two-child benefit cap looks likely to peter out after Sir Lindsay Hoyle failed to select their amendment.
More than a dozen Labour MPs signed an amendment to the King’s Speech calling for the cap to be abolished but Sir Lindsay, the Commons Speaker, announced at lunchtime that he had not selected it for a vote later today.
He has selected a similar amendment put forward by the SNP but Labour MPs are unlikely to vote for an SNP amendment given the political optics of doing so.
Which signifies so much as to what is wrong with Westminster politics today. Voting for or against something should not depend on who is doing the proposing.
It also relates to the fact that Labour won a by-election in Falkirk a year or so back, against the SNP, by promising to adopt SNP policy and not to follow SKS and Tory policy on the two-child cap.
Is there any evidence that the two-child cap is less popular in Scotland than elsewhere? Most of the polling I have seen in the past indicates that Scots are just as socially conservative as the English.
@jaketapper In a statement to CNN, actor/Democratic fundraiser George Clooney endorses VP Kamala Harris:
“President Biden has shown what true leadership is. He’s saving democracy once again. We’re all so excited to do whatever we can to support Vice President Harris in her historic quest.”
No, anymore than Mondale in his 50s failed to beat Reagan in his seventies in 1984
You keep reaching for comparisons which bear no real relation to the current contest.
I think I know the reason for HYUFD’s antipathy towards Harris.
Harris supported Meghan Markle in her racism complaint against the Royals.
I suspect even the King might secretly be wearing a 'Make America Great Again' cap in November, he wrote to Trump after his assassination attempt. In 2020 Meghan said she was 'excited' Harris was on the Democratic ticket and Harris also posted supportive tweets to Meghan.
Wiliiam is close to the Obama's but equally any friend and ally of Meghan's and Harry is not likely to be top of his card list. He certainly won't want a Sussex cheerleader in the White House and may even too have to hold his nose and back Trump given Trump like him is an enemy of the Meghan and accused the Sussexes of 'breaking the late Queen's heart'
Why is no one speculating who harrises veep candidate will be yet?
Because it's so very hard to say. If you want speculation then Buttigieg seems plausible to me, AOC as a very long shot, but who knows, and I think Harris finds herself in the odd position that if she gets the nomination (and she will) that she can choose quite freely. The idea that it'll definitely be a white male seems wrong to me.
Harris will want someone who can deliver a swing state for her. That will be one of the mist important factors in her decision IMO.
No, anymore than Mondale in his 50s failed to beat Reagan in his seventies in 1984
You keep reaching for comparisons which bear no real relation to the current contest.
I think I know the reason for HYUFD’s antipathy towards Harris.
Harris supported Meghan Markle in her racism complaint against the Royals.
I suspect even the King might secretly be wearing a 'Make America Great Again' cap in November, he wrote to Trump after his assassination attempt. In 2020 Meghan said she was 'excited' Harris was on the Democratic ticket and Harris also posted supportive tweets to Meghan.
Wiliiam is close to the Obama's but equally any friend and ally of Meghan's and Harry is not likely to be top of his card list. He certainly won't want a Sussex cheerleader in the White House and may even too have to hold his nose and back Trump given Trump like him is an enemy of the Meghan and accused the Sussexes of 'breaking the late Queen's heart'
A potential rebellion by some Labour MPs over the two-child benefit cap looks likely to peter out after Sir Lindsay Hoyle failed to select their amendment.
More than a dozen Labour MPs signed an amendment to the King’s Speech calling for the cap to be abolished but Sir Lindsay, the Commons Speaker, announced at lunchtime that he had not selected it for a vote later today.
He has selected a similar amendment put forward by the SNP but Labour MPs are unlikely to vote for an SNP amendment given the political optics of doing so.
Which signifies so much as to what is wrong with Westminster politics today. Voting for or against something should not depend on who is doing the proposing.
It says a lot about the importance of that issue to this group of rebel Labour MPs. They don't really care about it. They are just playing politics.
One reason I did not vote tactically for Labour at the recent election.
Carbon monoxide is the TdF drug of the moment, expect a spate of amateurs to be found dead with their mouths clamped round the exhaust pipe
So they've taken what was a test for capacity and abused it to increase red blood cell production? You'd have thought the passports would catch that but perhaps they started on it early.
Performances this year were just too much.
I mean, Vingegaard was better than last year only a few months after being in ICU but still got distanced with ease.
The worst moment was him going full gas to try and drop Pogacar and Pogacar sitting behind, sat up, and taking swigs from a water bottle.
No, anymore than Mondale in his 50s failed to beat Reagan in his seventies in 1984
Reagan had that rather good joke in one of the debates that some people were trying to make age into an election issue, but that he promised not to hold his opponent's youth and inexperience against him.
I think, as Democrats found with Biden, there is a real difference between early 70s (as Reagan was in 1984) and late 70s/early 80s. The aging process is really brutal when you get to and beyond that sort of stage. Some people bear up remarkably well, but they are fairly rare - the attrition rate is very high and the physical and mental decline is often very visible to those nearby.It's no longer steady, later life decline - it gets precipitous in many cases.
Indeed, Reagan probably had early stage Alzheimers by the time he left office in 1988 (at the same age Trump is now). It wasn't an issue in 1984, but he declined really sharply right at the end of his time in office and soon after it.
I suspect a reason for Biden's initial stubbornness was that the very same people who urged him to give way to Hillary in 2016 were the very same people who have been urging him to stand down now. No wonder his instinct was to raise two fingers.
If he had stood in 2016, he would have won, and the whole Trump nightmare would never have occurred.
Indeed, Democratic elites still don't understand that what wins in NYC, California and DC is not always what wins in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Ohio. Only after defeat in 2016 for Hillary did they reluctantly agree to back Biden who they felt not intellectually up to the job of POTUS and not really part of their culturally liberal crowd, now he has been forced out with Harris they again have one of their own as nominee.
It is no surprise that the most successful Democratic candidates tend to be southerners or from a rustbelt state like Texas raised LBJ, Georgia raised Carter, Arkansas raised Clinton or Scranton raised Biden rather than the coasts. Even Obama grew up in Kansas and worked in Illinois not NYC, DC, Boston or San Francisco.
The last truly liberal elite coastal Dem to win the Presidency was JFK, born and raised in Massachusetts but even he needed LBJ on his ticket to carry Texas and ensure he beat Nixon in a close race in 1960
Have you, out of interest, spent a lot of time in the US?
The Harris ramping is insane. My timelines are being spammed with a video of her cracking an egg one handed.
(Impressive tbf. I've never tried it.)
It's not too hard and it really helps if you need to be beating the mixture at the same time with the other hand. Takes about the same amount of dexterity as using chopsticks. Not in itself sufficient to qualify for POTUS.
My wife does it - after years of making cakes for a hobby, she does it almost reflexively...
Why is no one speculating who harrises veep candidate will be yet?
Because it's so very hard to say. If you want speculation then Buttigieg seems plausible to me, AOC as a very long shot, but who knows, and I think Harris finds herself in the odd position that if she gets the nomination (and she will) that she can choose quite freely. The idea that it'll definitely be a white male seems wrong to me.
Harris will want someone who can deliver a swing state for her. That will be one of the mist important factors in her decision IMO.
Kelly (AZ), Whitmer (MI), Shapiro (PA), Cooper (NC)
You'd rule out the MN bod, Pritzer and Beshear on this basis.
Whitmer doesn't balance up the ticket imo, and NC is a stretch beyond both AZ and PA.
The poll was in the aftermath of the GOP convention and before the Biden announcement.
What have OGH and I told you about hypothetical polls.
Generally they are accurate
Generally they are untestable. Most hypotheticals do not become actual.
If the 2 candidates tested are the party leaders or nominees they are
So far the only national poll conducted in the immediate aftermath of Biden dropping out is that by Morning Consult. They wrote it up as follows: "Former President Donald Trump leads Harris by 2 percentage points, 47% to 45%, in our survey conducted after Biden announced his decision to step aside, marking an improvement from the 6-point margin Biden faced in our surveys conducted ahead of his exit from the race."
That's a marked improvement in the Democrats' polling with Harris as the assumed nominee, even at a point before it became clear to all that she would be the one replacing Biden. Bear in mind too that that latest poll was also conducted in the immediate aftermath of a week of wall to wall coverage of the Republican convention, that is what was still a very favourable polling window for the Republicans.
So the Democrats are back in the game and there's all to play for.
Trump is toast given that's post-convention and post-near-martyrdom. And he has lost the female vote by being trump and choosing Vance.
Hardly, given Harris on 45% would be the lowest Dem voteshare since Dukakis in a presidential election.
The Harris ramping is insane. My timelines are being spammed with a video of her cracking an egg one handed.
(Impressive tbf. I've never tried it.)
It's not too hard and it really helps if you need to be beating the mixture at the same time with the other hand. Takes about the same amount of dexterity as using chopsticks. Not in itself sufficient to qualify for POTUS.
My wife does it - after years of making cakes for a hobby, she does it almost reflexively...
You must get through a lot of eggs...
She does sugar arts as a semi-pro thing - people pay for the cakes.
The poll was in the aftermath of the GOP convention and before the Biden announcement.
What have OGH and I told you about hypothetical polls.
Generally they are accurate
Nope.
I’ve been pointing out for years the flaw with hypothetical polling, in 2019 I wrote ‘Hypothetical polls are a lot like Hawaiian pizzas, they should be avoided at all costs by right thinking people everywhere‘ from 2019 here’s why.
No, anymore than Mondale in his 50s failed to beat Reagan in his seventies in 1984
Reagan had that rather good joke in one of the debates that some people were trying to make age into an election issue, but that he promised not to hold his opponent's youth and inexperience against him.
I think, as Democrats found with Biden, there is a real difference between early 70s (as Reagan was in 1984) and late 70s/early 80s. The aging process is really brutal when you get to and beyond that sort of stage. Some people bear up remarkably well, but they are fairly rare - the attrition rate is very high and the physical and mental decline is often very visible to those nearby.It's no longer steady, later life decline - it gets precipitous in many cases.
Indeed, Reagan probably had early stage Alzheimers by the time he left office in 1988 (at the same age Trump is now). It wasn't an issue in 1984, but he declined really sharply right at the end of his time in office and soon after it.
I suspect a reason for Biden's initial stubbornness was that the very same people who urged him to give way to Hillary in 2016 were the very same people who have been urging him to stand down now. No wonder his instinct was to raise two fingers.
If he had stood in 2016, he would have won, and the whole Trump nightmare would never have occurred.
Indeed, Democratic elites still don't understand that what wins in NYC, California and DC is not always what wins in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Ohio. Only after defeat in 2016 for Hillary did they reluctantly agree to back Biden who they felt not intellectually up to the job of POTUS and not really part of their culturally liberal crowd, now he has been forced out with Harris they again have one of their own as nominee.
It is no surprise that the most successful Democratic candidates tend to be southerners or from a rustbelt state like Texas raised LBJ, Georgia raised Carter, Arkansas raised Clinton or Scranton raised Biden rather than the coasts. Even Obama grew up in Kansas and worked in Illinois not NYC, DC, Boston or San Francisco.
The last truly liberal elite coastal Dem to win the Presidency was JFK, born and raised in Massachusetts but even he needed LBJ on his ticket to carry Texas and ensure he beat Nixon in a close race in 1960
Have you, out of interest, spent a lot of time in the US?
I have been to rural Pennsylvania and California and NYC and DC
Why is no one speculating who harrises veep candidate will be yet?
Because it's so very hard to say. If you want speculation then Buttigieg seems plausible to me, AOC as a very long shot, but who knows, and I think Harris finds herself in the odd position that if she gets the nomination (and she will) that she can choose quite freely. The idea that it'll definitely be a white male seems wrong to me.
Harris will want someone who can deliver a swing state for her. That will be one of the mist important factors in her decision IMO.
Kelly (AZ), Whitmer (MI), Shapiro (PA), Cooper (NC)
You'd rule out the MN bod, Pritzer and Beshear on this basis.
Whitmer doesn't balance up the ticket imo, and NC is a stretch beyond both AZ and PA.
So one of Kelly or Shapiro.
AZ is 11 votes PA 19 votes so - Shapiro is the more likely on that basis...
Carbon monoxide is the TdF drug of the moment, expect a spate of amateurs to be found dead with their mouths clamped round the exhaust pipe
So they've taken what was a test for capacity and abused it to increase red blood cell production? You'd have thought the passports would catch that but perhaps they started on it early.
Performances this year were just too much.
I mean, Vingegaard was better than last year only a few months after being in ICU but still got distanced with ease.
The worst moment was him going full gas to try and drop Pogacar and Pogacar sitting behind, sat up, and taking swigs from a water bottle.
Not Normal, as they say.
Some of the power output numbers over incredibly long periods (after day after day of punishing stages) were insane.
Derek Gee finished 9th in 2024 Tour de France (+27:21 to Pogačar) and probably his current version would have won every Sky era Tour by 10+ minutes minimum or close to that. Egan Bernal in 2024 is around his 2019 level if not slightly better and he finished 29th in the 2024 Tour.
@jaketapper In a statement to CNN, actor/Democratic fundraiser George Clooney endorses VP Kamala Harris:
“President Biden has shown what true leadership is. He’s saving democracy once again. We’re all so excited to do whatever we can to support Vice President Harris in her historic quest.”
If there’s one thing guaranteed to stop Harris’s momentum in its tracks, it’s a whole load of elite Hollywood types appearing on CNN and MSNBC fawning over Harris. The Trump ads in the swing states almost write themselves.
A potential rebellion by some Labour MPs over the two-child benefit cap looks likely to peter out after Sir Lindsay Hoyle failed to select their amendment.
More than a dozen Labour MPs signed an amendment to the King’s Speech calling for the cap to be abolished but Sir Lindsay, the Commons Speaker, announced at lunchtime that he had not selected it for a vote later today.
He has selected a similar amendment put forward by the SNP but Labour MPs are unlikely to vote for an SNP amendment given the political optics of doing so.
Which signifies so much as to what is wrong with Westminster politics today. Voting for or against something should not depend on who is doing the proposing.
It says a lot about the importance of that issue to this group of rebel Labour MPs. They don't really care about it. They are just playing politics.
One reason I did not vote tactically for Labour at the recent election.
Yes, Labour is unbelievably partisan, and just as attached to our current two-party system as are the Tories.
The poll was in the aftermath of the GOP convention and before the Biden announcement.
What have OGH and I told you about hypothetical polls.
Generally they are accurate
Nope.
I’ve been pointing out for years the flaw with hypothetical polling, in 2019 I wrote ‘Hypothetical polls are a lot like Hawaiian pizzas, they should be avoided at all costs by right thinking people everywhere‘ from 2019 here’s why.
Nope, they were right Major would beat Kinnock in 1990 and Thatcher wouldn't and they were right Boris would beat Corbyn in 2019.
A muppet would have beaten Corbyn in 2019. Oh, hang on..................
May didn't in 2017, nor would Hunt have won the redwall in 2019 either
I didn't say 2017 and Jeremy Hunt would most likely have beaten Mr Thicky. The disaster that then followed for the Tories under that complete muppet Johnson that only the insanely stupid still admire would not have happened. Did Bozo give you a BJ once or something? There must be some reason for it?
Why is no one speculating who harrises veep candidate will be yet?
Because it's so very hard to say. If you want speculation then Buttigieg seems plausible to me, AOC as a very long shot, but who knows, and I think Harris finds herself in the odd position that if she gets the nomination (and she will) that she can choose quite freely. The idea that it'll definitely be a white male seems wrong to me.
Harris will want someone who can deliver a swing state for her. That will be one of the mist important factors in her decision IMO.
Kelly (AZ), Whitmer (MI), Shapiro (PA), Cooper (NC)
You'd rule out the MN bod, Pritzer and Beshear on this basis.
Whitmer doesn't balance up the ticket imo, and NC is a stretch beyond both AZ and PA.
So one of Kelly or Shapiro.
AZ is 11 votes PA 19 votes so - Shapiro is the more likely on that basis...
It has to be a white man, I’d suggest, and Beshear and Shapiro look like the obvious choices. Beshear is probably the more capable but Shapiro will be the Dems’ establishment choice.
Why is no one speculating who harrises veep candidate will be yet?
Because it's so very hard to say. If you want speculation then Buttigieg seems plausible to me, AOC as a very long shot, but who knows, and I think Harris finds herself in the odd position that if she gets the nomination (and she will) that she can choose quite freely. The idea that it'll definitely be a white male seems wrong to me.
Harris will want someone who can deliver a swing state for her. That will be one of the mist important factors in her decision IMO.
Kelly (AZ), Whitmer (MI), Shapiro (PA), Cooper (NC)
You'd rule out the MN bod, Pritzer and Beshear on this basis.
Whitmer doesn't balance up the ticket imo, and NC is a stretch beyond both AZ and PA.
So one of Kelly or Shapiro.
I'm thinking Mark Kelly. Senator, ex-astronaut and test pilot.
No, anymore than Mondale in his 50s failed to beat Reagan in his seventies in 1984
Reagan had that rather good joke in one of the debates that some people were trying to make age into an election issue, but that he promised not to hold his opponent's youth and inexperience against him.
I think, as Democrats found with Biden, there is a real difference between early 70s (as Reagan was in 1984) and late 70s/early 80s. The aging process is really brutal when you get to and beyond that sort of stage. Some people bear up remarkably well, but they are fairly rare - the attrition rate is very high and the physical and mental decline is often very visible to those nearby.It's no longer steady, later life decline - it gets precipitous in many cases.
Indeed, Reagan probably had early stage Alzheimers by the time he left office in 1988 (at the same age Trump is now). It wasn't an issue in 1984, but he declined really sharply right at the end of his time in office and soon after it.
I suspect a reason for Biden's initial stubbornness was that the very same people who urged him to give way to Hillary in 2016 were the very same people who have been urging him to stand down now. No wonder his instinct was to raise two fingers.
If he had stood in 2016, he would have won, and the whole Trump nightmare would never have occurred.
Indeed, Democratic elites still don't understand that what wins in NYC, California and DC is not always what wins in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Ohio. Only after defeat in 2016 for Hillary did they reluctantly agree to back Biden who they felt not intellectually up to the job of POTUS and not really part of their culturally liberal crowd, now he has been forced out with Harris they again have one of their own as nominee.
It is no surprise that the most successful Democratic candidates tend to be southerners or from a rustbelt state like Texas raised LBJ, Georgia raised Carter, Arkansas raised Clinton or Scranton raised Biden rather than the coasts. Even Obama grew up in Kansas and worked in Illinois not NYC, DC, Boston or San Francisco.
The last truly liberal elite coastal Dem to win the Presidency was JFK, born and raised in Massachusetts but even he needed LBJ on his ticket to carry Texas and ensure he beat Nixon in a close race in 1960
Have you, out of interest, spent a lot of time in the US?
I have been to rural Pennsylvania and California and NYC and DC
Why is no one speculating who harrises veep candidate will be yet?
Because it's so very hard to say. If you want speculation then Buttigieg seems plausible to me, AOC as a very long shot, but who knows, and I think Harris finds herself in the odd position that if she gets the nomination (and she will) that she can choose quite freely. The idea that it'll definitely be a white male seems wrong to me.
Harris will want someone who can deliver a swing state for her. That will be one of the mist important factors in her decision IMO.
Indeed. Pennsylvania's size makes it more of a must win than some other swing states, there are fewer paths to winning without it.
I think if Trump loses, the RNC will end up having a contested convention in 2028. The Hardcore MAGA /traditional GOP alliance is probably going to split in half just like the 2019 Conservative vote did here - whilst I don't think it'll end the party or anything like that it's going to get ultra-messy internally. On the -ve side for the Democrats they'll be going for the tricky third term... On the positive it'll be the incumbent's second.
No, anymore than Mondale in his 50s failed to beat Reagan in his seventies in 1984
Reagan had that rather good joke in one of the debates that some people were trying to make age into an election issue, but that he promised not to hold his opponent's youth and inexperience against him.
I think, as Democrats found with Biden, there is a real difference between early 70s (as Reagan was in 1984) and late 70s/early 80s. The aging process is really brutal when you get to and beyond that sort of stage. Some people bear up remarkably well, but they are fairly rare - the attrition rate is very high and the physical and mental decline is often very visible to those nearby.It's no longer steady, later life decline - it gets precipitous in many cases.
Indeed, Reagan probably had early stage Alzheimers by the time he left office in 1988 (at the same age Trump is now). It wasn't an issue in 1984, but he declined really sharply right at the end of his time in office and soon after it.
I suspect a reason for Biden's initial stubbornness was that the very same people who urged him to give way to Hillary in 2016 were the very same people who have been urging him to stand down now. No wonder his instinct was to raise two fingers.
If he had stood in 2016, he would have won, and the whole Trump nightmare would never have occurred.
Indeed, Democratic elites still don't understand that what wins in NYC, California and DC is not always what wins in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Ohio. Only after defeat in 2016 for Hillary did they reluctantly agree to back Biden who they felt not intellectually up to the job of POTUS and not really part of their culturally liberal crowd, now he has been forced out with Harris they again have one of their own as nominee.
It is no surprise that the most successful Democratic candidates tend to be southerners or from a rustbelt state like Texas raised LBJ, Georgia raised Carter, Arkansas raised Clinton or Scranton raised Biden rather than the coasts. Even Obama grew up in Kansas and worked in Illinois not NYC, DC, Boston or San Francisco.
The last truly liberal elite coastal Dem to win the Presidency was JFK, born and raised in Massachusetts but even he needed LBJ on his ticket to carry Texas and ensure he beat Nixon in a close race in 1960
Have you, out of interest, spent a lot of time in the US?
I have been to rural Pennsylvania and California and NYC and DC
Even my dog has been to twenty five US states, and in my longer lifetime I’ve managed a few more than him
Why is no one speculating who harrises veep candidate will be yet?
Because it's so very hard to say. If you want speculation then Buttigieg seems plausible to me, AOC as a very long shot, but who knows, and I think Harris finds herself in the odd position that if she gets the nomination (and she will) that she can choose quite freely. The idea that it'll definitely be a white male seems wrong to me.
Harris will want someone who can deliver a swing state for her. That will be one of the mist important factors in her decision IMO.
Kelly (AZ), Whitmer (MI), Shapiro (PA), Cooper (NC)
You'd rule out the MN bod, Pritzer and Beshear on this basis.
Whitmer doesn't balance up the ticket imo, and NC is a stretch beyond both AZ and PA.
So one of Kelly or Shapiro.
AZ is 11 votes PA 19 votes so - Shapiro is the more likely on that basis...
One potential difficulty with Shapiro is that he has been extremely uncompromising in his support for the Israeli government's recent actions.
Why is no one speculating who harrises veep candidate will be yet?
Because it's so very hard to say. If you want speculation then Buttigieg seems plausible to me, AOC as a very long shot, but who knows, and I think Harris finds herself in the odd position that if she gets the nomination (and she will) that she can choose quite freely. The idea that it'll definitely be a white male seems wrong to me.
Harris will want someone who can deliver a swing state for her. That will be one of the mist important factors in her decision IMO.
Kelly (AZ), Whitmer (MI), Shapiro (PA), Cooper (NC)
You'd rule out the MN bod, Pritzer and Beshear on this basis.
Whitmer doesn't balance up the ticket imo, and NC is a stretch beyond both AZ and PA.
So one of Kelly or Shapiro.
I'm thinking Mark Kelly. Senator, ex-astronaut and test pilot.
That would be my favourite although I understand the thinking that it probably needs to be Shapiro so he can bring his state with him.
In fairness to Trump, he isn't an 80 year old candidate (although he will turn 80 in office if elected).
My view is Trump remains relatively narrow favourite. So a decent chance Haley will be proved right, and Democrats have improved their chances by ditching Biden, but on balance I think Trump will get over the line (sadly).
I agree, for Harris to win she needs everything to turn out perfectly whereas Trump can get away with not having a perfect night and winning.
By the start of September we need to see some polls showing Harris winning the popular vote.
I think you're somewhat exaggerating the situation. Harris has a lot of work to do. She has to build the Harris brand basically from scratch in a couple of months. However there is so much in her favour that it should be quite a forgiving path.
Trump on the other hand is a bit short on ideas as to how to fight this. He probably can't do nothing, but there are a lot of risks about rerunning the ideas he used against Clinton.
I currently have the race as 50/50, and have a suitably large bet accordingly. I'm factoring in a little bit of an ongoing improvement in Harris' numbers in this, but I suspect I may be underestimating that. (FWIW I think we'll see polls with almost no lead for Trump soon_)
Harris needs to build her brand, and "introduce herself to the voters" (insert additional clichés as you see fit). However, I think the Dems will do best when the focus is on Trump's flaws. There's still work to be done banging home the message that he's a felon, reminding people what really happened on 6 Jan, etc. You don't want the electorate to forget that.
"Harris was 17 when she arrived at Howard her freshman year. Friends remember her big earrings and red lipstick. Her dark hair, clipped into curly layers, framed her face. She was a cool girl with honey-colored skin. She was disarmingly warm with a boisterous laugh — the same one that punctuates her campaign speeches."
No, anymore than Mondale in his 50s failed to beat Reagan in his seventies in 1984
Reagan had that rather good joke in one of the debates that some people were trying to make age into an election issue, but that he promised not to hold his opponent's youth and inexperience against him.
I think, as Democrats found with Biden, there is a real difference between early 70s (as Reagan was in 1984) and late 70s/early 80s. The aging process is really brutal when you get to and beyond that sort of stage. Some people bear up remarkably well, but they are fairly rare - the attrition rate is very high and the physical and mental decline is often very visible to those nearby.It's no longer steady, later life decline - it gets precipitous in many cases.
Indeed, Reagan probably had early stage Alzheimers by the time he left office in 1988 (at the same age Trump is now). It wasn't an issue in 1984, but he declined really sharply right at the end of his time in office and soon after it.
I suspect a reason for Biden's initial stubbornness was that the very same people who urged him to give way to Hillary in 2016 were the very same people who have been urging him to stand down now. No wonder his instinct was to raise two fingers.
If he had stood in 2016, he would have won, and the whole Trump nightmare would never have occurred.
Indeed, Democratic elites still don't understand that what wins in NYC, California and DC is not always what wins in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Ohio. Only after defeat in 2016 for Hillary did they reluctantly agree to back Biden who they felt not intellectually up to the job of POTUS and not really part of their culturally liberal crowd, now he has been forced out with Harris they again have one of their own as nominee.
It is no surprise that the most successful Democratic candidates tend to be southerners or from a rustbelt state like Texas raised LBJ, Georgia raised Carter, Arkansas raised Clinton or Scranton raised Biden rather than the coasts. Even Obama grew up in Kansas and worked in Illinois not NYC, DC, Boston or San Francisco.
The last truly liberal elite coastal Dem to win the Presidency was JFK, born and raised in Massachusetts but even he needed LBJ on his ticket to carry Texas and ensure he beat Nixon in a close race in 1960
Have you, out of interest, spent a lot of time in the US?
I have been to rural Pennsylvania and California and NYC and DC
Even my dog has been to twenty five US states, and in my longer lifetime I’ve managed a few more than him
Why is no one speculating who harrises veep candidate will be yet?
Because it's so very hard to say. If you want speculation then Buttigieg seems plausible to me, AOC as a very long shot, but who knows, and I think Harris finds herself in the odd position that if she gets the nomination (and she will) that she can choose quite freely. The idea that it'll definitely be a white male seems wrong to me.
Harris will want someone who can deliver a swing state for her. That will be one of the mist important factors in her decision IMO.
Kelly (AZ), Whitmer (MI), Shapiro (PA), Cooper (NC)
You'd rule out the MN bod, Pritzer and Beshear on this basis.
Whitmer doesn't balance up the ticket imo, and NC is a stretch beyond both AZ and PA.
So one of Kelly or Shapiro.
I'd really like it to be Mark Kelly. In part because space! ; but also because I've heard him interviewed many times on non-political issues, and he invariably sounds like the adult in the room. A considered, thoughtful man with a great life story - especially given the attempted assassination on his wife.
Why is no one speculating who harrises veep candidate will be yet?
Because it's so very hard to say. If you want speculation then Buttigieg seems plausible to me, AOC as a very long shot, but who knows, and I think Harris finds herself in the odd position that if she gets the nomination (and she will) that she can choose quite freely. The idea that it'll definitely be a white male seems wrong to me.
Harris will want someone who can deliver a swing state for her. That will be one of the mist important factors in her decision IMO.
Kelly (AZ), Whitmer (MI), Shapiro (PA), Cooper (NC)
You'd rule out the MN bod, Pritzer and Beshear on this basis.
Whitmer doesn't balance up the ticket imo, and NC is a stretch beyond both AZ and PA.
So one of Kelly or Shapiro.
AZ is 11 votes PA 19 votes so - Shapiro is the more likely on that basis...
One potential difficulty with Shapiro is that he has been extremely uncompromising in his support for the Israeli government's recent actions.
Michigan is probably the most vulnerable swing state to that particular issue I think ?
The poll was in the aftermath of the GOP convention and before the Biden announcement.
What have OGH and I told you about hypothetical polls.
Generally they are accurate
Nope.
I’ve been pointing out for years the flaw with hypothetical polling, in 2019 I wrote ‘Hypothetical polls are a lot like Hawaiian pizzas, they should be avoided at all costs by right thinking people everywhere‘ from 2019 here’s why.
Nope, they were right Major would beat Kinnock in 1990 and Thatcher wouldn't and they were right Boris would beat Corbyn in 2019.
A muppet would have beaten Corbyn in 2019. Oh, hang on..................
May didn't in 2017, nor would Hunt have won the redwall in 2019 either
I didn't say 2017 and Jeremy Hunt would most likely have beaten Mr Thicky. The disaster that then followed for the Tories under that complete muppet Johnson that only the insanely stupid still admire would not have happened. Did Bozo give you a BJ once or something? There must be some reason for it?
He wouldn't, the redwall seats only went for Boris in 2019 to get Brexit done, they would not have voted for Remainer Hunt
Why is no one speculating who harrises veep candidate will be yet?
Because it's so very hard to say. If you want speculation then Buttigieg seems plausible to me, AOC as a very long shot, but who knows, and I think Harris finds herself in the odd position that if she gets the nomination (and she will) that she can choose quite freely. The idea that it'll definitely be a white male seems wrong to me.
Harris will want someone who can deliver a swing state for her. That will be one of the most important factors in her decision IMO.
Kelly (AZ), Whitmer (MI), Shapiro (PA), Cooper (NC)
You'd rule out the MN bod, Pritzer and Beshear on this basis.
Whitmer doesn't balance up the ticket imo, and NC is a stretch beyond both AZ and PA.
So one of Kelly or Shapiro.
I don't quite buy this reductive 'will deliver a state'/'balances the ticket' business. Some of those candidates are good enough to do the business outside of their states. But while that probably includes Beshear, it also includes (eg) Shapiro - so who knows ?
Harris has game in the sunbelt, so does she look to reinforce that, rather than the rustbelt ?
I suspect she'll wait for more informative polling before she does anything, so I don't expect a particularly quick pick.
Why is no one speculating who harrises veep candidate will be yet?
Because it's so very hard to say. If you want speculation then Buttigieg seems plausible to me, AOC as a very long shot, but who knows, and I think Harris finds herself in the odd position that if she gets the nomination (and she will) that she can choose quite freely. The idea that it'll definitely be a white male seems wrong to me.
Harris will want someone who can deliver a swing state for her. That will be one of the mist important factors in her decision IMO.
Kelly (AZ), Whitmer (MI), Shapiro (PA), Cooper (NC)
You'd rule out the MN bod, Pritzer and Beshear on this basis.
Whitmer doesn't balance up the ticket imo, and NC is a stretch beyond both AZ and PA.
So one of Kelly or Shapiro.
AZ is 11 votes PA 19 votes so - Shapiro is the more likely on that basis...
It has to be a white man, I’d suggest, and Beshear and Shapiro look like the obvious choices. Beshear is probably the more capable but Shapiro will be the Dems’ establishment choice.
The contract for the Bibby Stockholm barge, which houses asylum seekers off the coast of Dorset, will not be renewed past January, the Home Office has announced.
The poll was in the aftermath of the GOP convention and before the Biden announcement.
What have OGH and I told you about hypothetical polls.
Generally they are accurate
Nope.
I’ve been pointing out for years the flaw with hypothetical polling, in 2019 I wrote ‘Hypothetical polls are a lot like Hawaiian pizzas, they should be avoided at all costs by right thinking people everywhere‘ from 2019 here’s why.
Nope, they were right Major would beat Kinnock in 1990 and Thatcher wouldn't and they were right Boris would beat Corbyn in 2019.
A muppet would have beaten Corbyn in 2019. Oh, hang on..................
May didn't in 2017, nor would Hunt have won the redwall in 2019 either
I didn't say 2017 and Jeremy Hunt would most likely have beaten Mr Thicky. The disaster that then followed for the Tories under that complete muppet Johnson that only the insanely stupid still admire would not have happened. Did Bozo give you a BJ once or something? There must be some reason for it?
He wouldn't, the redwall seats only went for Boris in 2019 to get Brexit done, they would not have voted for Remainer Hunt
Yes, we know you believe that and you want to so desperately believe it. I suspect you repeat it out loud in your sleep. But only the stupid believe it was a victory of "get Brexit done", it has been proved time and time again by OGH who produced polling evidence that it was simply a vote to keep the communist out. For once this is very clear. You are completely deluded.
In one interview, Bernie Sanders was cheekily asked whether he would be willing to run as vice president. He said he'd wait for the call before commenting.
The contract for the Bibby Stockholm barge, which houses asylum seekers off the coast of Dorset, will not be renewed past January, the Home Office has announced.
Why is no one speculating who harrises veep candidate will be yet?
Because it's so very hard to say. If you want speculation then Buttigieg seems plausible to me, AOC as a very long shot, but who knows, and I think Harris finds herself in the odd position that if she gets the nomination (and she will) that she can choose quite freely. The idea that it'll definitely be a white male seems wrong to me.
Harris will want someone who can deliver a swing state for her. That will be one of the mist important factors in her decision IMO.
Kelly (AZ), Whitmer (MI), Shapiro (PA), Cooper (NC)
You'd rule out the MN bod, Pritzer and Beshear on this basis.
Whitmer doesn't balance up the ticket imo, and NC is a stretch beyond both AZ and PA.
So one of Kelly or Shapiro.
I'd really like it to be Mark Kelly. In part because space! ; but also because I've heard him interviewed many times on non-political issues, and he invariably sounds like the adult in the room. A considered, thoughtful man with a great life story - especially given the attempted assassination on his wife.
Might nullify Trump going on about the attempted assassination on him.
The contract for the Bibby Stockholm barge, which houses asylum seekers off the coast of Dorset, will not be renewed past January, the Home Office has announced.
In fairness to Trump, he isn't an 80 year old candidate (although he will turn 80 in office if elected).
My view is Trump remains relatively narrow favourite. So a decent chance Haley will be proved right, and Democrats have improved their chances by ditching Biden, but on balance I think Trump will get over the line (sadly).
I agree, for Harris to win she needs everything to turn out perfectly whereas Trump can get away with not having a perfect night and winning.
By the start of September we need to see some polls showing Harris winning the popular vote.
I disagree. Harris doesn't need everything to be 'perfect'; it's closer than that. But yes, the polls need to show a marked improvement within the next couple of weeks.
This was an interesting snap poll.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4787602-kamala-harris-most-democrats-support-nomination-survey/ A CBS News/YouGov Poll, released Monday, found 79 percent of Democrats support the party nominating Harris to top the 2024 ticket, while 21 percent said someone else should be nominated. The poll, taken just after Biden announced he would withdraw from the race following weeks of calls from some Democrats to step aside over concerns about his stamina to serve another four years or beat former President Trump in November. Biden later endorsed Harris to run in his place and many on the left rapidly united around her candidacy. Harris crossed the threshold to secure the Democratic presidential nomination, receiving over 1,968 delegate endorsements less than two days after Biden dropped out of the race. Roughly 83 percent of Democratic voters said they approved of Biden’s withdrawal from the race, while just 17 percent disapproved, per the survey. About 45 percent of party voters said their chances of defeating Trump are “better” without Biden in the race, while 10 percent said their chances are “worse,” the poll found. Another 17 percent said the chances were not changed and 28 percent said it depends on the nominee. The survey also suggested that Biden’s decision to step aside may prompt more voters to head to the polls this November, with 39 percent of Democrats stating they are more motivated to vote now that the president is out of the race. About 49 percent said it did not change their motivation and 6 percent said it made them less motivated. The CBS News/YouGov poll was conducted July 21-22 among 1,071 registered voters who identify as Democrats. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points...
Certainly feels right, from my own perspective as an actual Democratic voter who is "coastal" (thank God for sea breeze on hot summer days!) but NOT exactly what you'd call "elite".
Yesterday reminded me strongly of the classic film "The African Queen".
In the movie, with Humphrey Bogart at the engine and Katherine Hepburn on the tiller, the old battered boat survives enemy gunfire and runs raging rapids, as Charlie & Rosie (Bogie & Kate) endure hordes of mosquitos, effect repairs heedless (sorta) of blood-sucking leeches, and end up hauling the AQ through tangles swamp until they find themselves stuck in the muck.
THEN the rains come . . . and slowly but surely float the boat and it's plucky but hitherto hapless crew out of the mud and out to open water . . . to face the might of a brutal, relentless foe . . .
YESTERDAY yours truly watched the clouds parting and the water rising higher, hour by hour, re-floating the Good Ship Democrat and bringing new hope to Democratic politicos, pundits, candidate, activists and above all voters. From California to the New York island, from the redwood forests to the Gulf Stream waters, from Dutch Harbor to Key West.
And NOT just the Presidential Barge. The rising tide of Democratic morale, the gnashing of teeth by the MAGA-maniacs, the increased flood of new campaign money, volunteer enthusiasm and above all HOPE for the future is likely to float a LOT of boats big, middling and small, up and down the ballot.
No, anymore than Mondale in his 50s failed to beat Reagan in his seventies in 1984
Reagan had that rather good joke in one of the debates that some people were trying to make age into an election issue, but that he promised not to hold his opponent's youth and inexperience against him.
I think, as Democrats found with Biden, there is a real difference between early 70s (as Reagan was in 1984) and late 70s/early 80s. The aging process is really brutal when you get to and beyond that sort of stage. Some people bear up remarkably well, but they are fairly rare - the attrition rate is very high and the physical and mental decline is often very visible to those nearby.It's no longer steady, later life decline - it gets precipitous in many cases.
Indeed, Reagan probably had early stage Alzheimers by the time he left office in 1988 (at the same age Trump is now). It wasn't an issue in 1984, but he declined really sharply right at the end of his time in office and soon after it.
I suspect a reason for Biden's initial stubbornness was that the very same people who urged him to give way to Hillary in 2016 were the very same people who have been urging him to stand down now. No wonder his instinct was to raise two fingers.
If he had stood in 2016, he would have won, and the whole Trump nightmare would never have occurred.
Indeed, Democratic elites still don't understand that what wins in NYC, California and DC is not always what wins in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Ohio. Only after defeat in 2016 for Hillary did they reluctantly agree to back Biden who they felt not intellectually up to the job of POTUS and not really part of their culturally liberal crowd, now he has been forced out with Harris they again have one of their own as nominee.
It is no surprise that the most successful Democratic candidates tend to be southerners or from a rustbelt state like Texas raised LBJ, Georgia raised Carter, Arkansas raised Clinton or Scranton raised Biden rather than the coasts. Even Obama grew up in Kansas and worked in Illinois not NYC, DC, Boston or San Francisco.
The last truly liberal elite coastal Dem to win the Presidency was JFK, born and raised in Massachusetts but even he needed LBJ on his ticket to carry Texas and ensure he beat Nixon in a close race in 1960
Have you, out of interest, spent a lot of time in the US?
I have been to rural Pennsylvania and California and NYC and DC
Even my dog has been to twenty five US states, and in my longer lifetime I’ve managed a few more than him
Why is no one speculating who harrises veep candidate will be yet?
Because it's so very hard to say. If you want speculation then Buttigieg seems plausible to me, AOC as a very long shot, but who knows, and I think Harris finds herself in the odd position that if she gets the nomination (and she will) that she can choose quite freely. The idea that it'll definitely be a white male seems wrong to me.
Harris will want someone who can deliver a swing state for her. That will be one of the mist important factors in her decision IMO.
Kelly (AZ), Whitmer (MI), Shapiro (PA), Cooper (NC)
You'd rule out the MN bod, Pritzer and Beshear on this basis.
Whitmer doesn't balance up the ticket imo, and NC is a stretch beyond both AZ and PA.
https://x.com/KFILE/status/1815729998046642215 JD Vance repeatedly indicated in 2016 that he believed Trump committed repeated sexual assault, questioned Trump’s credibility over his accusers and even tweeted, “What percentage of the American population has @realDonaldTrump sexually assaulted?”
Why is no one speculating who harrises veep candidate will be yet?
Because it's so very hard to say. If you want speculation then Buttigieg seems plausible to me, AOC as a very long shot, but who knows, and I think Harris finds herself in the odd position that if she gets the nomination (and she will) that she can choose quite freely. The idea that it'll definitely be a white male seems wrong to me.
Harris will want someone who can deliver a swing state for her. That will be one of the mist important factors in her decision IMO.
Kelly (AZ), Whitmer (MI), Shapiro (PA), Cooper (NC)
You'd rule out the MN bod, Pritzer and Beshear on this basis.
Whitmer doesn't balance up the ticket imo, and NC is a stretch beyond both AZ and PA.
So one of Kelly or Shapiro.
I'd really like it to be Mark Kelly. In part because space! ; but also because I've heard him interviewed many times on non-political issues, and he invariably sounds like the adult in the room. A considered, thoughtful man with a great life story - especially given the attempted assassination on his wife.
The way he comes across and his family background and education relates well to middle America.
First degree from USMMA - a long way from the Ivy League. Or Annapolis, even.
In fairness to Trump, he isn't an 80 year old candidate (although he will turn 80 in office if elected).
My view is Trump remains relatively narrow favourite. So a decent chance Haley will be proved right, and Democrats have improved their chances by ditching Biden, but on balance I think Trump will get over the line (sadly).
I agree, for Harris to win she needs everything to turn out perfectly whereas Trump can get away with not having a perfect night and winning.
By the start of September we need to see some polls showing Harris winning the popular vote.
I disagree. Harris doesn't need everything to be 'perfect'; it's closer than that. But yes, the polls need to show a marked improvement within the next couple of weeks.
This was an interesting snap poll.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4787602-kamala-harris-most-democrats-support-nomination-survey/ A CBS News/YouGov Poll, released Monday, found 79 percent of Democrats support the party nominating Harris to top the 2024 ticket, while 21 percent said someone else should be nominated. The poll, taken just after Biden announced he would withdraw from the race following weeks of calls from some Democrats to step aside over concerns about his stamina to serve another four years or beat former President Trump in November. Biden later endorsed Harris to run in his place and many on the left rapidly united around her candidacy. Harris crossed the threshold to secure the Democratic presidential nomination, receiving over 1,968 delegate endorsements less than two days after Biden dropped out of the race. Roughly 83 percent of Democratic voters said they approved of Biden’s withdrawal from the race, while just 17 percent disapproved, per the survey. About 45 percent of party voters said their chances of defeating Trump are “better” without Biden in the race, while 10 percent said their chances are “worse,” the poll found. Another 17 percent said the chances were not changed and 28 percent said it depends on the nominee. The survey also suggested that Biden’s decision to step aside may prompt more voters to head to the polls this November, with 39 percent of Democrats stating they are more motivated to vote now that the president is out of the race. About 49 percent said it did not change their motivation and 6 percent said it made them less motivated. The CBS News/YouGov poll was conducted July 21-22 among 1,071 registered voters who identify as Democrats. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points...
Certainly feels right, from my own perspective as an actual Democratic voter who is "coastal" (thank God for sea breeze on hot summer days!) but NOT exactly what you'd call "elite".
Yesterday reminded me strongly of the classic film "The African Queen".
In the movie, with Humphrey Bogart at the engine and Katherine Hepburn on the tiller, the old battered boat survives enemy gunfire and runs raging rapids, as Charlie & Rosie (Bogie & Kate) endure hordes of mosquitos, effect repairs heedless (sorta) of blood-sucking leeches, and end up hauling the AQ through tangles swamp until they find themselves stuck in the muck.
THEN the rains come . . . and slowly but surely float the boat and it's plucky but hitherto hapless crew out of the mud and out to open water . . . to face the might of a brutal, relentless foe . . .
YESTERDAY yours truly watched the clouds parting and the water rising higher, hour by hour, re-floating the Good Ship Democrat and bringing new hope to Democratic politicos, pundits, candidate, activists and above all voters. From California to the New York island, from the redwood forests to the Gulf Stream waters, from Dutch Harbor to Key West.
And NOT just the Presidential Barge. The rising tide of Democratic morale, the gnashing of teeth by the MAGA-maniacs, the increased flood of new campaign money, volunteer enthusiasm and above all HOPE for the future is likely to float a LOT of boats big, middling and small, up and down the ballot.
Why is no one speculating who harrises veep candidate will be yet?
Because it's so very hard to say. If you want speculation then Buttigieg seems plausible to me, AOC as a very long shot, but who knows, and I think Harris finds herself in the odd position that if she gets the nomination (and she will) that she can choose quite freely. The idea that it'll definitely be a white male seems wrong to me.
Harris will want someone who can deliver a swing state for her. That will be one of the mist important factors in her decision IMO.
Kelly (AZ), Whitmer (MI), Shapiro (PA), Cooper (NC)
You'd rule out the MN bod, Pritzer and Beshear on this basis.
Whitmer doesn't balance up the ticket imo, and NC is a stretch beyond both AZ and PA.
So one of Kelly or Shapiro.
AZ is 11 votes PA 19 votes so - Shapiro is the more likely on that basis...
But AZ preserves the Senate seat as I understand it.
The way she is going on you would think, her daughter just got overexcited that one time...JSO literally have a week in the life of Cressie...bouncing from arrest to court, back to arrest. And of course acting like a spoilt child refusing to engage with the court proceedings.
Her brother and his missus can do a Handfasting ceremony whilst visiting his criminal sister in prison, if they must. For atmosphere, they could be joined by a pair of symbolic handcuffs.
Mum comes across as a BS-artist:
'Cressida also grew up completely understanding right and wrong. She has always been unable to stand by when she sees injustice. She has the courage of a lion and a moral compass that compels her to step forward when she sees wrong.
So she thought it OK to conspire to block up the SE of England reckless as to whether she prevented ambulances getting to hospital. Moral compass, my arse.
In fairness to Trump, he isn't an 80 year old candidate (although he will turn 80 in office if elected).
My view is Trump remains relatively narrow favourite. So a decent chance Haley will be proved right, and Democrats have improved their chances by ditching Biden, but on balance I think Trump will get over the line (sadly).
I agree, for Harris to win she needs everything to turn out perfectly whereas Trump can get away with not having a perfect night and winning.
By the start of September we need to see some polls showing Harris winning the popular vote.
I disagree. Harris doesn't need everything to be 'perfect'; it's closer than that. But yes, the polls need to show a marked improvement within the next couple of weeks.
This was an interesting snap poll.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4787602-kamala-harris-most-democrats-support-nomination-survey/ A CBS News/YouGov Poll, released Monday, found 79 percent of Democrats support the party nominating Harris to top the 2024 ticket, while 21 percent said someone else should be nominated. The poll, taken just after Biden announced he would withdraw from the race following weeks of calls from some Democrats to step aside over concerns about his stamina to serve another four years or beat former President Trump in November. Biden later endorsed Harris to run in his place and many on the left rapidly united around her candidacy. Harris crossed the threshold to secure the Democratic presidential nomination, receiving over 1,968 delegate endorsements less than two days after Biden dropped out of the race. Roughly 83 percent of Democratic voters said they approved of Biden’s withdrawal from the race, while just 17 percent disapproved, per the survey. About 45 percent of party voters said their chances of defeating Trump are “better” without Biden in the race, while 10 percent said their chances are “worse,” the poll found. Another 17 percent said the chances were not changed and 28 percent said it depends on the nominee. The survey also suggested that Biden’s decision to step aside may prompt more voters to head to the polls this November, with 39 percent of Democrats stating they are more motivated to vote now that the president is out of the race. About 49 percent said it did not change their motivation and 6 percent said it made them less motivated. The CBS News/YouGov poll was conducted July 21-22 among 1,071 registered voters who identify as Democrats. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points...
Certainly feels right, from my own perspective as an actual Democratic voter who is "coastal" (thank God for sea breeze on hot summer days!) but NOT exactly what you'd call "elite".
Yesterday reminded me strongly of the classic film "The African Queen".
In the movie, with Humphrey Bogart at the engine and Katherine Hepburn on the tiller, the old battered boat survives enemy gunfire and runs raging rapids, as Charlie & Rosie (Bogie & Kate) endure hordes of mosquitos, effect repairs heedless (sorta) of blood-sucking leeches, and end up hauling the AQ through tangles swamp until they find themselves stuck in the muck.
THEN the rains come . . . and slowly but surely float the boat and it's plucky but hitherto hapless crew out of the mud and out to open water . . . to face the might of a brutal, relentless foe . . .
YESTERDAY yours truly watched the clouds parting and the water rising higher, hour by hour, re-floating the Good Ship Democrat and bringing new hope to Democratic politicos, pundits, candidate, activists and above all voters. From California to the New York island, from the redwood forests to the Gulf Stream waters, from Dutch Harbor to Key West.
And NOT just the Presidential Barge. The rising tide of Democratic morale, the gnashing of teeth by the MAGA-maniacs, the increased flood of new campaign money, volunteer enthusiasm and above all HOPE for the future is likely to float a LOT of boats big, middling and small, up and down the ballot.
Under Biden, the Democrats were on the Titanic a few minutes past midnight on the 15th April 1912. They were sinking, and it was only going to get worse. They just did not know that yet.
Under Harris, the Democrats are sailing to Malta on the SS Ohio in August 1942. Will they make it to Grand Harbour and save the day, despite the efforts of the Republicans?
In fairness to Trump, he isn't an 80 year old candidate (although he will turn 80 in office if elected).
My view is Trump remains relatively narrow favourite. So a decent chance Haley will be proved right, and Democrats have improved their chances by ditching Biden, but on balance I think Trump will get over the line (sadly).
I agree, for Harris to win she needs everything to turn out perfectly whereas Trump can get away with not having a perfect night and winning.
By the start of September we need to see some polls showing Harris winning the popular vote.
I disagree. Harris doesn't need everything to be 'perfect'; it's closer than that. But yes, the polls need to show a marked improvement within the next couple of weeks.
This was an interesting snap poll.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4787602-kamala-harris-most-democrats-support-nomination-survey/ A CBS News/YouGov Poll, released Monday, found 79 percent of Democrats support the party nominating Harris to top the 2024 ticket, while 21 percent said someone else should be nominated. The poll, taken just after Biden announced he would withdraw from the race following weeks of calls from some Democrats to step aside over concerns about his stamina to serve another four years or beat former President Trump in November. Biden later endorsed Harris to run in his place and many on the left rapidly united around her candidacy. Harris crossed the threshold to secure the Democratic presidential nomination, receiving over 1,968 delegate endorsements less than two days after Biden dropped out of the race. Roughly 83 percent of Democratic voters said they approved of Biden’s withdrawal from the race, while just 17 percent disapproved, per the survey. About 45 percent of party voters said their chances of defeating Trump are “better” without Biden in the race, while 10 percent said their chances are “worse,” the poll found. Another 17 percent said the chances were not changed and 28 percent said it depends on the nominee. The survey also suggested that Biden’s decision to step aside may prompt more voters to head to the polls this November, with 39 percent of Democrats stating they are more motivated to vote now that the president is out of the race. About 49 percent said it did not change their motivation and 6 percent said it made them less motivated. The CBS News/YouGov poll was conducted July 21-22 among 1,071 registered voters who identify as Democrats. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points...
Certainly feels right, from my own perspective as an actual Democratic voter who is "coastal" (thank God for sea breeze on hot summer days!) but NOT exactly what you'd call "elite".
Yesterday reminded me strongly of the classic film "The African Queen".
In the movie, with Humphrey Bogart at the engine and Katherine Hepburn on the tiller, the old battered boat survives enemy gunfire and runs raging rapids, as Charlie & Rosie (Bogie & Kate) endure hordes of mosquitos, effect repairs heedless (sorta) of blood-sucking leeches, and end up hauling the AQ through tangles swamp until they find themselves stuck in the muck.
THEN the rains come . . . and slowly but surely float the boat and it's plucky but hitherto hapless crew out of the mud and out to open water . . . to face the might of a brutal, relentless foe . . .
YESTERDAY yours truly watched the clouds parting and the water rising higher, hour by hour, re-floating the Good Ship Democrat and bringing new hope to Democratic politicos, pundits, candidate, activists and above all voters. From California to the New York island, from the redwood forests to the Gulf Stream waters, from Dutch Harbor to Key West.
And NOT just the Presidential Barge. The rising tide of Democratic morale, the gnashing of teeth by the MAGA-maniacs, the increased flood of new campaign money, volunteer enthusiasm and above all HOPE for the future is likely to float a LOT of boats big, middling and small, up and down the ballot.
So why didnt you get rid of Biden ages ago ?
As he is the only Democrat to have beaten Trump in the EC and come November that may well still be true
In one interview, Bernie Sanders was cheekily asked whether he would be willing to run as vice president. He said he'd wait for the call before commenting.
Harris-Sanders or Harris-AOC would be the most leftwing Democratic ticket since McGovern-Shriver in 1972. I can't see even Harris being that mad!
Why is no one speculating who harrises veep candidate will be yet?
Because it's so very hard to say. If you want speculation then Buttigieg seems plausible to me, AOC as a very long shot, but who knows, and I think Harris finds herself in the odd position that if she gets the nomination (and she will) that she can choose quite freely. The idea that it'll definitely be a white male seems wrong to me.
Harris will want someone who can deliver a swing state for her. That will be one of the mist important factors in her decision IMO.
Kelly (AZ), Whitmer (MI), Shapiro (PA), Cooper (NC)
You'd rule out the MN bod, Pritzer and Beshear on this basis.
Whitmer doesn't balance up the ticket imo, and NC is a stretch beyond both AZ and PA.
So one of Kelly or Shapiro.
I'd really like it to be Mark Kelly. In part because space! ; but also because I've heard him interviewed many times on non-political issues, and he invariably sounds like the adult in the room. A considered, thoughtful man with a great life story - especially given the attempted assassination on his wife.
Might nullify Trump going on about the attempted assassination on him.
AIUI (might be wrong), Kelly and Giffords both went from pro-gun to anti-gun after the assassination attempt.
That shows a willingness to learn from experience that I doubt Trump will show.
The poll was in the aftermath of the GOP convention and before the Biden announcement.
What have OGH and I told you about hypothetical polls.
Generally they are accurate
Nope.
I’ve been pointing out for years the flaw with hypothetical polling, in 2019 I wrote ‘Hypothetical polls are a lot like Hawaiian pizzas, they should be avoided at all costs by right thinking people everywhere‘ from 2019 here’s why.
Nope, they were right Major would beat Kinnock in 1990 and Thatcher wouldn't and they were right Boris would beat Corbyn in 2019.
A muppet would have beaten Corbyn in 2019. Oh, hang on..................
May didn't in 2017, nor would Hunt have won the redwall in 2019 either
I didn't say 2017 and Jeremy Hunt would most likely have beaten Mr Thicky. The disaster that then followed for the Tories under that complete muppet Johnson that only the insanely stupid still admire would not have happened. Did Bozo give you a BJ once or something? There must be some reason for it?
He wouldn't, the redwall seats only went for Boris in 2019 to get Brexit done, they would not have voted for Remainer Hunt
I have a lot of time for your analysis. However although Johnson won in 2019, on the balance of probability, not least his behaviour, he would have been/ would be spanked in GE2024/5. He is also exactly what the Tories don't need to climb back to electoral relevance.
Instinctively you may be right that Trump will win, but I doubt it will be the shoo-in you suggest. I am surprised you keep using unsafe data when if you hang on for a couple of weeks or so you will have a clearer idea of how things might shake down.
The poll was in the aftermath of the GOP convention and before the Biden announcement.
What have OGH and I told you about hypothetical polls.
Generally they are accurate
Nope.
I’ve been pointing out for years the flaw with hypothetical polling, in 2019 I wrote ‘Hypothetical polls are a lot like Hawaiian pizzas, they should be avoided at all costs by right thinking people everywhere‘ from 2019 here’s why.
Nope, they were right Major would beat Kinnock in 1990 and Thatcher wouldn't and they were right Boris would beat Corbyn in 2019.
A muppet would have beaten Corbyn in 2019. Oh, hang on..................
May didn't in 2017, nor would Hunt have won the redwall in 2019 either
I didn't say 2017 and Jeremy Hunt would most likely have beaten Mr Thicky. The disaster that then followed for the Tories under that complete muppet Johnson that only the insanely stupid still admire would not have happened. Did Bozo give you a BJ once or something? There must be some reason for it?
He wouldn't, the redwall seats only went for Boris in 2019 to get Brexit done, they would not have voted for Remainer Hunt
Yes, we know you believe that and you want to so desperately believe it. I suspect you repeat it out loud in your sleep. But only the stupid believe it was a victory of "get Brexit done", it has been proved time and time again by OGH who produced polling evidence that it was simply a vote to keep the communist out. For once this is very clear. You are completely deluded.
Except it wasn't, otherwise the redwall would not have voted for Corbyn in 2017 either but it did
AP survey of 2024 Democratic National Convention delegates nationwide (excluding super-delegates who cannot vote on first ballot for POTUS or VP) currently show Kamala Harris with 2,688 = 67.6% of 3,949.
Note that this is not only more than the 50% +1 required for nomination (1,979) it is also more than the 2/3 required to secure the Democratic Party nomination from before the Civil War until & including 1932.
Further note the survey current shows just 54 listed as Undecided, meaning that 31% of all DNC delegates have yet to be surveyed.
Why is no one speculating who harrises veep candidate will be yet?
Because it's so very hard to say. If you want speculation then Buttigieg seems plausible to me, AOC as a very long shot, but who knows, and I think Harris finds herself in the odd position that if she gets the nomination (and she will) that she can choose quite freely. The idea that it'll definitely be a white male seems wrong to me.
The white man argument comes from the theory that you need a balanced ticket. Reality is Harris does have a freehand but needs to pick someone who can bring in extra votes and States...
Not so much a "white man" but someone who has lots of appeal in the swing states, would be the traditional political thinking.
The poll was in the aftermath of the GOP convention and before the Biden announcement.
What have OGH and I told you about hypothetical polls.
Generally they are accurate
Nope.
I’ve been pointing out for years the flaw with hypothetical polling, in 2019 I wrote ‘Hypothetical polls are a lot like Hawaiian pizzas, they should be avoided at all costs by right thinking people everywhere‘ from 2019 here’s why.
Nope, they were right Major would beat Kinnock in 1990 and Thatcher wouldn't and they were right Boris would beat Corbyn in 2019.
A muppet would have beaten Corbyn in 2019. Oh, hang on..................
May didn't in 2017, nor would Hunt have won the redwall in 2019 either
I didn't say 2017 and Jeremy Hunt would most likely have beaten Mr Thicky. The disaster that then followed for the Tories under that complete muppet Johnson that only the insanely stupid still admire would not have happened. Did Bozo give you a BJ once or something? There must be some reason for it?
He wouldn't, the redwall seats only went for Boris in 2019 to get Brexit done, they would not have voted for Remainer Hunt
I have a lot of time for your analysis. However although Johnson won in 2019, on the balance of probability, not least his behaviour, he would have been/ would be spanked in GE2024/5. He is also exactly what the Tories don't need to climb back to electoral relevance.
Instinctively you may be right that Trump will win, but I doubt it will be the shoo-in you suggest. I am surprised you keep using unsafe data when if you hang on for a couple of weeks or so you will have a clearer idea of how things might shake down.
The Conservatives would have won over 200 seats and got over 30% of the vote had Boris remained leader and Reform would not have got more than 10% like they did. Even if Starmer had still won
Why is no one speculating who harrises veep candidate will be yet?
Because it's so very hard to say. If you want speculation then Buttigieg seems plausible to me, AOC as a very long shot, but who knows, and I think Harris finds herself in the odd position that if she gets the nomination (and she will) that she can choose quite freely. The idea that it'll definitely be a white male seems wrong to me.
Harris will want someone who can deliver a swing state for her. That will be one of the mist important factors in her decision IMO.
Kelly (AZ), Whitmer (MI), Shapiro (PA), Cooper (NC)
You'd rule out the MN bod, Pritzer and Beshear on this basis.
Whitmer doesn't balance up the ticket imo, and NC is a stretch beyond both AZ and PA.
So one of Kelly or Shapiro.
I'd really like it to be Mark Kelly. In part because space! ; but also because I've heard him interviewed many times on non-political issues, and he invariably sounds like the adult in the room. A considered, thoughtful man with a great life story - especially given the attempted assassination on his wife.
Was being eviscerated by both MAGA and AOC. Inevitable.
Well, she presided over the Secret service failing utterly at one of its chief functions. A failure that was entirely preventable by the Secret Service.
Why is no one speculating who harrises veep candidate will be yet?
Because it's so very hard to say. If you want speculation then Buttigieg seems plausible to me, AOC as a very long shot, but who knows, and I think Harris finds herself in the odd position that if she gets the nomination (and she will) that she can choose quite freely. The idea that it'll definitely be a white male seems wrong to me.
Harris will want someone who can deliver a swing state for her. That will be one of the mist important factors in her decision IMO.
Kelly (AZ), Whitmer (MI), Shapiro (PA), Cooper (NC)
You'd rule out the MN bod, Pritzer and Beshear on this basis.
Whitmer doesn't balance up the ticket imo, and NC is a stretch beyond both AZ and PA.
So one of Kelly or Shapiro.
I'd really like it to be Mark Kelly. In part because space! ; but also because I've heard him interviewed many times on non-political issues, and he invariably sounds like the adult in the room. A considered, thoughtful man with a great life story - especially given the attempted assassination on his wife.
Kelly debating Vance could be Bentsen vs Quayle.
& Harris would hope with a different ultimate outcome !
The poll was in the aftermath of the GOP convention and before the Biden announcement.
What have OGH and I told you about hypothetical polls.
Generally they are accurate
Nope.
I’ve been pointing out for years the flaw with hypothetical polling, in 2019 I wrote ‘Hypothetical polls are a lot like Hawaiian pizzas, they should be avoided at all costs by right thinking people everywhere‘ from 2019 here’s why.
Nope, they were right Major would beat Kinnock in 1990 and Thatcher wouldn't and they were right Boris would beat Corbyn in 2019.
A muppet would have beaten Corbyn in 2019. Oh, hang on..................
May didn't in 2017, nor would Hunt have won the redwall in 2019 either
I didn't say 2017 and Jeremy Hunt would most likely have beaten Mr Thicky. The disaster that then followed for the Tories under that complete muppet Johnson that only the insanely stupid still admire would not have happened. Did Bozo give you a BJ once or something? There must be some reason for it?
He wouldn't, the redwall seats only went for Boris in 2019 to get Brexit done, they would not have voted for Remainer Hunt
Yes, we know you believe that and you want to so desperately believe it. I suspect you repeat it out loud in your sleep. But only the stupid believe it was a victory of "get Brexit done", it has been proved time and time again by OGH who produced polling evidence that it was simply a vote to keep the communist out. For once this is very clear. You are completely deluded.
Except it wasn't, otherwise the redwall would not have voted for Corbyn in 2017 either but it did
People's views on Corbyn hadn't hardened by 2017 though. It was before the Salisbury poisonings, before the antisemitism issue picked up momentum, before all of the meaningful vote stuff etc etc. Hunt would have gone into 2019 pledging to implement Brexit as much as Boris did. True he may not have been able to sell it quite so well but probably well enough.
Was being eviscerated by both MAGA and AOC. Inevitable.
Well, she presided over the Secret service failing utterly at one of its chief functions. A failure that was entirely preventable by the Secret Service.
I was staggered to hear that they could have included the building within their area and chose not to.
The poll was in the aftermath of the GOP convention and before the Biden announcement.
What have OGH and I told you about hypothetical polls.
Generally they are accurate
Nope.
I’ve been pointing out for years the flaw with hypothetical polling, in 2019 I wrote ‘Hypothetical polls are a lot like Hawaiian pizzas, they should be avoided at all costs by right thinking people everywhere‘ from 2019 here’s why.
Nope, they were right Major would beat Kinnock in 1990 and Thatcher wouldn't and they were right Boris would beat Corbyn in 2019.
A muppet would have beaten Corbyn in 2019. Oh, hang on..................
May didn't in 2017, nor would Hunt have won the redwall in 2019 either
I didn't say 2017 and Jeremy Hunt would most likely have beaten Mr Thicky. The disaster that then followed for the Tories under that complete muppet Johnson that only the insanely stupid still admire would not have happened. Did Bozo give you a BJ once or something? There must be some reason for it?
He wouldn't, the redwall seats only went for Boris in 2019 to get Brexit done, they would not have voted for Remainer Hunt
I have a lot of time for your analysis. However although Johnson won in 2019, on the balance of probability, not least his behaviour, he would have been/ would be spanked in GE2024/5. He is also exactly what the Tories don't need to climb back to electoral relevance.
Instinctively you may be right that Trump will win, but I doubt it will be the shoo-in you suggest. I am surprised you keep using unsafe data when if you hang on for a couple of weeks or so you will have a clearer idea of how things might shake down.
The Conservatives would have won over 200 seats and got over 30% of the vote had Boris remained leader and Reform would not have got more than 10% like they did. Even if Starmer had still won
You cannot confirm that with any certainty.
Johnson might have done better in the RedWall, but the Conservatives might have done even worse in their BlueWall. There was a visceral hatred of the Conservative Party and that disdain would have been focused more directly on Johnson had he returned after Truss.
The contract for the Bibby Stockholm barge, which houses asylum seekers off the coast of Dorset, will not be renewed past January, the Home Office has announced.
Was being eviscerated by both MAGA and AOC. Inevitable.
Well, she presided over the Secret service failing utterly at one of its chief functions. A failure that was entirely preventable by the Secret Service.
I was staggered to hear that they could have included the building within their area and chose not to.
They could even have told the local state troopers to put a man on the roof.
If you have to delegate stuff then fine, but delegate stuff properly and make sure there’s clear communication avenues such that everyone has situational awareness.
The poll was in the aftermath of the GOP convention and before the Biden announcement.
What have OGH and I told you about hypothetical polls.
Generally they are accurate
Nope.
I’ve been pointing out for years the flaw with hypothetical polling, in 2019 I wrote ‘Hypothetical polls are a lot like Hawaiian pizzas, they should be avoided at all costs by right thinking people everywhere‘ from 2019 here’s why.
Nope, they were right Major would beat Kinnock in 1990 and Thatcher wouldn't and they were right Boris would beat Corbyn in 2019.
A muppet would have beaten Corbyn in 2019. Oh, hang on..................
May didn't in 2017, nor would Hunt have won the redwall in 2019 either
I didn't say 2017 and Jeremy Hunt would most likely have beaten Mr Thicky. The disaster that then followed for the Tories under that complete muppet Johnson that only the insanely stupid still admire would not have happened. Did Bozo give you a BJ once or something? There must be some reason for it?
He wouldn't, the redwall seats only went for Boris in 2019 to get Brexit done, they would not have voted for Remainer Hunt
I have a lot of time for your analysis. However although Johnson won in 2019, on the balance of probability, not least his behaviour, he would have been/ would be spanked in GE2024/5. He is also exactly what the Tories don't need to climb back to electoral relevance.
Instinctively you may be right that Trump will win, but I doubt it will be the shoo-in you suggest. I am surprised you keep using unsafe data when if you hang on for a couple of weeks or so you will have a clearer idea of how things might shake down.
The Conservatives would have won over 200 seats and got over 30% of the vote had Boris remained leader and Reform would not have got more than 10% like they did. Even if Starmer had still won
You cannot confirm that with any surity.
Johnson might have done better in the RedWall, but the Conservatives might have done even worse in their BlueWall. There was a visceral hatred of the Conservative Party and that disdain would have been focused more directly on Johnson had he returned after Truss.
Apart from Hunt's the Tories lost all the Remain seats they were going to lose in the Bluewall this month anyway, Johnson would probably have saved 100 Leave marginal seats though.
Johnson staying also would have meant no Truss Kwarteng budget and interest rates surge
In fairness to Trump, he isn't an 80 year old candidate (although he will turn 80 in office if elected).
My view is Trump remains relatively narrow favourite. So a decent chance Haley will be proved right, and Democrats have improved their chances by ditching Biden, but on balance I think Trump will get over the line (sadly).
I agree, for Harris to win she needs everything to turn out perfectly whereas Trump can get away with not having a perfect night and winning.
By the start of September we need to see some polls showing Harris winning the popular vote.
I disagree. Harris doesn't need everything to be 'perfect'; it's closer than that. But yes, the polls need to show a marked improvement within the next couple of weeks.
This was an interesting snap poll.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4787602-kamala-harris-most-democrats-support-nomination-survey/ A CBS News/YouGov Poll, released Monday, found 79 percent of Democrats support the party nominating Harris to top the 2024 ticket, while 21 percent said someone else should be nominated. The poll, taken just after Biden announced he would withdraw from the race following weeks of calls from some Democrats to step aside over concerns about his stamina to serve another four years or beat former President Trump in November. Biden later endorsed Harris to run in his place and many on the left rapidly united around her candidacy. Harris crossed the threshold to secure the Democratic presidential nomination, receiving over 1,968 delegate endorsements less than two days after Biden dropped out of the race. Roughly 83 percent of Democratic voters said they approved of Biden’s withdrawal from the race, while just 17 percent disapproved, per the survey. About 45 percent of party voters said their chances of defeating Trump are “better” without Biden in the race, while 10 percent said their chances are “worse,” the poll found. Another 17 percent said the chances were not changed and 28 percent said it depends on the nominee. The survey also suggested that Biden’s decision to step aside may prompt more voters to head to the polls this November, with 39 percent of Democrats stating they are more motivated to vote now that the president is out of the race. About 49 percent said it did not change their motivation and 6 percent said it made them less motivated. The CBS News/YouGov poll was conducted July 21-22 among 1,071 registered voters who identify as Democrats. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points...
Certainly feels right, from my own perspective as an actual Democratic voter who is "coastal" (thank God for sea breeze on hot summer days!) but NOT exactly what you'd call "elite".
Yesterday reminded me strongly of the classic film "The African Queen".
In the movie, with Humphrey Bogart at the engine and Katherine Hepburn on the tiller, the old battered boat survives enemy gunfire and runs raging rapids, as Charlie & Rosie (Bogie & Kate) endure hordes of mosquitos, effect repairs heedless (sorta) of blood-sucking leeches, and end up hauling the AQ through tangles swamp until they find themselves stuck in the muck.
THEN the rains come . . . and slowly but surely float the boat and it's plucky but hitherto hapless crew out of the mud and out to open water . . . to face the might of a brutal, relentless foe . . .
YESTERDAY yours truly watched the clouds parting and the water rising higher, hour by hour, re-floating the Good Ship Democrat and bringing new hope to Democratic politicos, pundits, candidate, activists and above all voters. From California to the New York island, from the redwood forests to the Gulf Stream waters, from Dutch Harbor to Key West.
And NOT just the Presidential Barge. The rising tide of Democratic morale, the gnashing of teeth by the MAGA-maniacs, the increased flood of new campaign money, volunteer enthusiasm and above all HOPE for the future is likely to float a LOT of boats big, middling and small, up and down the ballot.
So why didn't you get rid of Biden ages ago ?
Because it was always going to have to be voluntary.
In fairness to Trump, he isn't an 80 year old candidate (although he will turn 80 in office if elected).
My view is Trump remains relatively narrow favourite. So a decent chance Haley will be proved right, and Democrats have improved their chances by ditching Biden, but on balance I think Trump will get over the line (sadly).
I agree, for Harris to win she needs everything to turn out perfectly whereas Trump can get away with not having a perfect night and winning.
By the start of September we need to see some polls showing Harris winning the popular vote.
I disagree. Harris doesn't need everything to be 'perfect'; it's closer than that. But yes, the polls need to show a marked improvement within the next couple of weeks.
This was an interesting snap poll.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4787602-kamala-harris-most-democrats-support-nomination-survey/ A CBS News/YouGov Poll, released Monday, found 79 percent of Democrats support the party nominating Harris to top the 2024 ticket, while 21 percent said someone else should be nominated. The poll, taken just after Biden announced he would withdraw from the race following weeks of calls from some Democrats to step aside over concerns about his stamina to serve another four years or beat former President Trump in November. Biden later endorsed Harris to run in his place and many on the left rapidly united around her candidacy. Harris crossed the threshold to secure the Democratic presidential nomination, receiving over 1,968 delegate endorsements less than two days after Biden dropped out of the race. Roughly 83 percent of Democratic voters said they approved of Biden’s withdrawal from the race, while just 17 percent disapproved, per the survey. About 45 percent of party voters said their chances of defeating Trump are “better” without Biden in the race, while 10 percent said their chances are “worse,” the poll found. Another 17 percent said the chances were not changed and 28 percent said it depends on the nominee. The survey also suggested that Biden’s decision to step aside may prompt more voters to head to the polls this November, with 39 percent of Democrats stating they are more motivated to vote now that the president is out of the race. About 49 percent said it did not change their motivation and 6 percent said it made them less motivated. The CBS News/YouGov poll was conducted July 21-22 among 1,071 registered voters who identify as Democrats. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points...
Certainly feels right, from my own perspective as an actual Democratic voter who is "coastal" (thank God for sea breeze on hot summer days!) but NOT exactly what you'd call "elite".
Yesterday reminded me strongly of the classic film "The African Queen".
In the movie, with Humphrey Bogart at the engine and Katherine Hepburn on the tiller, the old battered boat survives enemy gunfire and runs raging rapids, as Charlie & Rosie (Bogie & Kate) endure hordes of mosquitos, effect repairs heedless (sorta) of blood-sucking leeches, and end up hauling the AQ through tangles swamp until they find themselves stuck in the muck.
THEN the rains come . . . and slowly but surely float the boat and it's plucky but hitherto hapless crew out of the mud and out to open water . . . to face the might of a brutal, relentless foe . . .
YESTERDAY yours truly watched the clouds parting and the water rising higher, hour by hour, re-floating the Good Ship Democrat and bringing new hope to Democratic politicos, pundits, candidate, activists and above all voters. From California to the New York island, from the redwood forests to the Gulf Stream waters, from Dutch Harbor to Key West.
And NOT just the Presidential Barge. The rising tide of Democratic morale, the gnashing of teeth by the MAGA-maniacs, the increased flood of new campaign money, volunteer enthusiasm and above all HOPE for the future is likely to float a LOT of boats big, middling and small, up and down the ballot.
So why didnt you get rid of Biden ages ago ?
Well, for starters it was NOT up to me to "get rid of Biden" it was up to Biden. Given lack of clear, let alone preferable alternative and fact he won 98.4% of national Democratic delegates.
Situation changed dramatically when Biden laid an egg in the debate. As public reaction AND polling data clearly showed. Which is what it seems convinced him to take the dramatic, unprecedented and (for him) heart-breaking decision to withdraw from the race and forsake prospect of 2nd term. (Somewhat like "Apollo 13")
AS FOR TIMING, well you & I can criticize away over the timeline, but with respect to the end-game, am thinking that Biden played this amazing well, viz-a-viz the attempted assassination of Donald Trump, the entire GOP Convention, and MOST especially Trump's picking J.D. Vance as his running mate and Mini-Me.
Certainly does NOT appear to be what you'd call a post-convention bounce for DJT-JDV methinks. On the other hand, bounce hardly does justice to what's happening with KH and the Democrats right now.
The contract for the Bibby Stockholm barge, which houses asylum seekers off the coast of Dorset, will not be renewed past January, the Home Office has announced.
In fairness to Trump, he isn't an 80 year old candidate (although he will turn 80 in office if elected).
My view is Trump remains relatively narrow favourite. So a decent chance Haley will be proved right, and Democrats have improved their chances by ditching Biden, but on balance I think Trump will get over the line (sadly).
I agree, for Harris to win she needs everything to turn out perfectly whereas Trump can get away with not having a perfect night and winning.
By the start of September we need to see some polls showing Harris winning the popular vote.
I disagree. Harris doesn't need everything to be 'perfect'; it's closer than that. But yes, the polls need to show a marked improvement within the next couple of weeks.
This was an interesting snap poll.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4787602-kamala-harris-most-democrats-support-nomination-survey/ A CBS News/YouGov Poll, released Monday, found 79 percent of Democrats support the party nominating Harris to top the 2024 ticket, while 21 percent said someone else should be nominated. The poll, taken just after Biden announced he would withdraw from the race following weeks of calls from some Democrats to step aside over concerns about his stamina to serve another four years or beat former President Trump in November. Biden later endorsed Harris to run in his place and many on the left rapidly united around her candidacy. Harris crossed the threshold to secure the Democratic presidential nomination, receiving over 1,968 delegate endorsements less than two days after Biden dropped out of the race. Roughly 83 percent of Democratic voters said they approved of Biden’s withdrawal from the race, while just 17 percent disapproved, per the survey. About 45 percent of party voters said their chances of defeating Trump are “better” without Biden in the race, while 10 percent said their chances are “worse,” the poll found. Another 17 percent said the chances were not changed and 28 percent said it depends on the nominee. The survey also suggested that Biden’s decision to step aside may prompt more voters to head to the polls this November, with 39 percent of Democrats stating they are more motivated to vote now that the president is out of the race. About 49 percent said it did not change their motivation and 6 percent said it made them less motivated. The CBS News/YouGov poll was conducted July 21-22 among 1,071 registered voters who identify as Democrats. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points...
Certainly feels right, from my own perspective as an actual Democratic voter who is "coastal" (thank God for sea breeze on hot summer days!) but NOT exactly what you'd call "elite".
Yesterday reminded me strongly of the classic film "The African Queen".
In the movie, with Humphrey Bogart at the engine and Katherine Hepburn on the tiller, the old battered boat survives enemy gunfire and runs raging rapids, as Charlie & Rosie (Bogie & Kate) endure hordes of mosquitos, effect repairs heedless (sorta) of blood-sucking leeches, and end up hauling the AQ through tangles swamp until they find themselves stuck in the muck.
THEN the rains come . . . and slowly but surely float the boat and it's plucky but hitherto hapless crew out of the mud and out to open water . . . to face the might of a brutal, relentless foe . . .
YESTERDAY yours truly watched the clouds parting and the water rising higher, hour by hour, re-floating the Good Ship Democrat and bringing new hope to Democratic politicos, pundits, candidate, activists and above all voters. From California to the New York island, from the redwood forests to the Gulf Stream waters, from Dutch Harbor to Key West.
And NOT just the Presidential Barge. The rising tide of Democratic morale, the gnashing of teeth by the MAGA-maniacs, the increased flood of new campaign money, volunteer enthusiasm and above all HOPE for the future is likely to float a LOT of boats big, middling and small, up and down the ballot.
Under Biden, the Democrats were on the Titanic a few minutes past midnight on the 15th April 1912. They were sinking, and it was only going to get worse. They just did not know that yet.
Under Harris, the Democrats are sailing to Malta on the SS Ohio in August 1942. Will they make it to Grand Harbour and save the day, despite the efforts of the Republicans?
Why is no one speculating who harrises veep candidate will be yet?
Because it's so very hard to say. If you want speculation then Buttigieg seems plausible to me, AOC as a very long shot, but who knows, and I think Harris finds herself in the odd position that if she gets the nomination (and she will) that she can choose quite freely. The idea that it'll definitely be a white male seems wrong to me.
Harris will want someone who can deliver a swing state for her. That will be one of the mist important factors in her decision IMO.
Kelly (AZ), Whitmer (MI), Shapiro (PA), Cooper (NC)
You'd rule out the MN bod, Pritzer and Beshear on this basis.
Whitmer doesn't balance up the ticket imo, and NC is a stretch beyond both AZ and PA.
So one of Kelly or Shapiro.
AZ is 11 votes PA 19 votes so - Shapiro is the more likely on that basis...
But AZ preserves the Senate seat as I understand it.
For 2025, as Kelly would retain his US Senate seat until elected (by electoral college) and appointed replacement would be on ballot in November 2025 for remainder of Kelly's term.
So a consideration but NOT as immediate as winning in 2024 and retaining the White House.
In fairness to Trump, he isn't an 80 year old candidate (although he will turn 80 in office if elected).
My view is Trump remains relatively narrow favourite. So a decent chance Haley will be proved right, and Democrats have improved their chances by ditching Biden, but on balance I think Trump will get over the line (sadly).
I agree, for Harris to win she needs everything to turn out perfectly whereas Trump can get away with not having a perfect night and winning.
By the start of September we need to see some polls showing Harris winning the popular vote.
I disagree. Harris doesn't need everything to be 'perfect'; it's closer than that. But yes, the polls need to show a marked improvement within the next couple of weeks.
This was an interesting snap poll.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4787602-kamala-harris-most-democrats-support-nomination-survey/ A CBS News/YouGov Poll, released Monday, found 79 percent of Democrats support the party nominating Harris to top the 2024 ticket, while 21 percent said someone else should be nominated. The poll, taken just after Biden announced he would withdraw from the race following weeks of calls from some Democrats to step aside over concerns about his stamina to serve another four years or beat former President Trump in November. Biden later endorsed Harris to run in his place and many on the left rapidly united around her candidacy. Harris crossed the threshold to secure the Democratic presidential nomination, receiving over 1,968 delegate endorsements less than two days after Biden dropped out of the race. Roughly 83 percent of Democratic voters said they approved of Biden’s withdrawal from the race, while just 17 percent disapproved, per the survey. About 45 percent of party voters said their chances of defeating Trump are “better” without Biden in the race, while 10 percent said their chances are “worse,” the poll found. Another 17 percent said the chances were not changed and 28 percent said it depends on the nominee. The survey also suggested that Biden’s decision to step aside may prompt more voters to head to the polls this November, with 39 percent of Democrats stating they are more motivated to vote now that the president is out of the race. About 49 percent said it did not change their motivation and 6 percent said it made them less motivated. The CBS News/YouGov poll was conducted July 21-22 among 1,071 registered voters who identify as Democrats. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points...
Certainly feels right, from my own perspective as an actual Democratic voter who is "coastal" (thank God for sea breeze on hot summer days!) but NOT exactly what you'd call "elite".
Yesterday reminded me strongly of the classic film "The African Queen".
In the movie, with Humphrey Bogart at the engine and Katherine Hepburn on the tiller, the old battered boat survives enemy gunfire and runs raging rapids, as Charlie & Rosie (Bogie & Kate) endure hordes of mosquitos, effect repairs heedless (sorta) of blood-sucking leeches, and end up hauling the AQ through tangles swamp until they find themselves stuck in the muck.
THEN the rains come . . . and slowly but surely float the boat and it's plucky but hitherto hapless crew out of the mud and out to open water . . . to face the might of a brutal, relentless foe . . .
YESTERDAY yours truly watched the clouds parting and the water rising higher, hour by hour, re-floating the Good Ship Democrat and bringing new hope to Democratic politicos, pundits, candidate, activists and above all voters. From California to the New York island, from the redwood forests to the Gulf Stream waters, from Dutch Harbor to Key West.
And NOT just the Presidential Barge. The rising tide of Democratic morale, the gnashing of teeth by the MAGA-maniacs, the increased flood of new campaign money, volunteer enthusiasm and above all HOPE for the future is likely to float a LOT of boats big, middling and small, up and down the ballot.
So why didnt you get rid of Biden ages ago ?
Well, for starters it was NOT up to me to "get rid of Biden" it was up to Biden. Given lack of clear, let alone preferable alternative and fact he won 98.4% of national Democratic delegates.
Situation changed dramatically when Biden laid an egg in the debate. As public reaction AND polling data clearly showed. Which is what it seems convinced him to take the dramatic, unprecedented and (for him) heart-breaking decision to withdraw from the race and forsake prospect of 2nd term. (Somewhat like "Apollo 13")
AS FOR TIMING, well you & I can criticize away over the timeline, but with respect to the end-game, am thinking that Biden played this amazing well, viz-a-viz the attempted assassination of Donald Trump, the entire GOP Convention, and MOST especially Trump's picking J.D. Vance as his running mate and Mini-Me.
Certainly does NOT appear to be what you'd call a post-convention bounce for DJT-JDV methinks. On the other hand, bounce hardly does justice to what's happening with KH and the Democrats right now.
Clearly trailing Trump-Vance in every national and swing state poll so far this week you mean?
The poll was in the aftermath of the GOP convention and before the Biden announcement.
What have OGH and I told you about hypothetical polls.
Generally they are accurate
Nope.
I’ve been pointing out for years the flaw with hypothetical polling, in 2019 I wrote ‘Hypothetical polls are a lot like Hawaiian pizzas, they should be avoided at all costs by right thinking people everywhere‘ from 2019 here’s why.
Nope, they were right Major would beat Kinnock in 1990 and Thatcher wouldn't and they were right Boris would beat Corbyn in 2019.
A muppet would have beaten Corbyn in 2019. Oh, hang on..................
May didn't in 2017, nor would Hunt have won the redwall in 2019 either
I didn't say 2017 and Jeremy Hunt would most likely have beaten Mr Thicky. The disaster that then followed for the Tories under that complete muppet Johnson that only the insanely stupid still admire would not have happened. Did Bozo give you a BJ once or something? There must be some reason for it?
He wouldn't, the redwall seats only went for Boris in 2019 to get Brexit done, they would not have voted for Remainer Hunt
I have a lot of time for your analysis. However although Johnson won in 2019, on the balance of probability, not least his behaviour, he would have been/ would be spanked in GE2024/5. He is also exactly what the Tories don't need to climb back to electoral relevance.
Instinctively you may be right that Trump will win, but I doubt it will be the shoo-in you suggest. I am surprised you keep using unsafe data when if you hang on for a couple of weeks or so you will have a clearer idea of how things might shake down.
The Conservatives would have won over 200 seats and got over 30% of the vote had Boris remained leader and Reform would not have got more than 10% like they did. Even if Starmer had still won
You cannot confirm that with any surity.
Johnson might have done better in the RedWall, but the Conservatives might have done even worse in their BlueWall. There was a visceral hatred of the Conservative Party and that disdain would have been focused more directly on Johnson had he returned after Truss.
Apart from Hunt's the Tories lost all the Remain seats they were going to lose in the Bluewall this month anyway, Johnson would probably have saved 100 Leave marginal seats though.
Johnson staying also would have meant no Truss Kwarteng budget and interest rates surge
"Johnson staying" would have split the Conservatives asunder. The nation's voters pictured Johnson partying like it's 1999 whilst the Queen mourned Phil the Greek alone in her chapel. The nation despised Johnson, and they still do.
The poll was in the aftermath of the GOP convention and before the Biden announcement.
What have OGH and I told you about hypothetical polls.
Generally they are accurate
Nope.
I’ve been pointing out for years the flaw with hypothetical polling, in 2019 I wrote ‘Hypothetical polls are a lot like Hawaiian pizzas, they should be avoided at all costs by right thinking people everywhere‘ from 2019 here’s why.
Nope, they were right Major would beat Kinnock in 1990 and Thatcher wouldn't and they were right Boris would beat Corbyn in 2019.
A muppet would have beaten Corbyn in 2019. Oh, hang on..................
May didn't in 2017, nor would Hunt have won the redwall in 2019 either
I didn't say 2017 and Jeremy Hunt would most likely have beaten Mr Thicky. The disaster that then followed for the Tories under that complete muppet Johnson that only the insanely stupid still admire would not have happened. Did Bozo give you a BJ once or something? There must be some reason for it?
He wouldn't, the redwall seats only went for Boris in 2019 to get Brexit done, they would not have voted for Remainer Hunt
I have a lot of time for your analysis. However although Johnson won in 2019, on the balance of probability, not least his behaviour, he would have been/ would be spanked in GE2024/5. He is also exactly what the Tories don't need to climb back to electoral relevance.
Instinctively you may be right that Trump will win, but I doubt it will be the shoo-in you suggest. I am surprised you keep using unsafe data when if you hang on for a couple of weeks or so you will have a clearer idea of how things might shake down.
The Conservatives would have won over 200 seats and got over 30% of the vote had Boris remained leader and Reform would not have got more than 10% like they did. Even if Starmer had still won
You cannot confirm that with any surity.
Johnson might have done better in the RedWall, but the Conservatives might have done even worse in their BlueWall. There was a visceral hatred of the Conservative Party and that disdain would have been focused more directly on Johnson had he returned after Truss.
Apart from Hunt's the Tories lost all the Remain seats they were going to lose in the Bluewall this month anyway, Johnson would probably have saved 100 Leave marginal seats though.
Johnson staying also would have meant no Truss Kwarteng budget and interest rates surge
You may well be right.
But remind me, why exactly did Johnson leave the stage, and whose fault was it that he ended up resigning?
The poll was in the aftermath of the GOP convention and before the Biden announcement.
What have OGH and I told you about hypothetical polls.
Generally they are accurate
Nope.
I’ve been pointing out for years the flaw with hypothetical polling, in 2019 I wrote ‘Hypothetical polls are a lot like Hawaiian pizzas, they should be avoided at all costs by right thinking people everywhere‘ from 2019 here’s why.
Nope, they were right Major would beat Kinnock in 1990 and Thatcher wouldn't and they were right Boris would beat Corbyn in 2019.
A muppet would have beaten Corbyn in 2019. Oh, hang on..................
May didn't in 2017, nor would Hunt have won the redwall in 2019 either
I didn't say 2017 and Jeremy Hunt would most likely have beaten Mr Thicky. The disaster that then followed for the Tories under that complete muppet Johnson that only the insanely stupid still admire would not have happened. Did Bozo give you a BJ once or something? There must be some reason for it?
He wouldn't, the redwall seats only went for Boris in 2019 to get Brexit done, they would not have voted for Remainer Hunt
I have a lot of time for your analysis. However although Johnson won in 2019, on the balance of probability, not least his behaviour, he would have been/ would be spanked in GE2024/5. He is also exactly what the Tories don't need to climb back to electoral relevance.
Instinctively you may be right that Trump will win, but I doubt it will be the shoo-in you suggest. I am surprised you keep using unsafe data when if you hang on for a couple of weeks or so you will have a clearer idea of how things might shake down.
The Conservatives would have won over 200 seats and got over 30% of the vote had Boris remained leader and Reform would not have got more than 10% like they did. Even if Starmer had still won
You cannot confirm that with any surity.
Johnson might have done better in the RedWall, but the Conservatives might have done even worse in their BlueWall. There was a visceral hatred of the Conservative Party and that disdain would have been focused more directly on Johnson had he returned after Truss.
Apart from Hunt's the Tories lost all the Remain seats they were going to lose in the Bluewall this month anyway, Johnson would probably have saved 100 Leave marginal seats though.
Johnson staying also would have meant no Truss Kwarteng budget and interest rates surge
"Johnson staying" would have split the Conservatives asunder. The nation's voters pictured Johnson partying like it's 1999 whilst the Queen mourned Phil the Greek alone in her chapel. The nation despised Johnson, and they still do.
No, correction left liberals and Remainers despised Johnson, most Leavers couldn't care less about his drinks in the No 10 garden.
What split the Tories asunder was the votes lost to Labour and Reform after he was removed
The poll was in the aftermath of the GOP convention and before the Biden announcement.
What have OGH and I told you about hypothetical polls.
Generally they are accurate
Nope.
I’ve been pointing out for years the flaw with hypothetical polling, in 2019 I wrote ‘Hypothetical polls are a lot like Hawaiian pizzas, they should be avoided at all costs by right thinking people everywhere‘ from 2019 here’s why.
Nope, they were right Major would beat Kinnock in 1990 and Thatcher wouldn't and they were right Boris would beat Corbyn in 2019.
A muppet would have beaten Corbyn in 2019. Oh, hang on..................
May didn't in 2017, nor would Hunt have won the redwall in 2019 either
I didn't say 2017 and Jeremy Hunt would most likely have beaten Mr Thicky. The disaster that then followed for the Tories under that complete muppet Johnson that only the insanely stupid still admire would not have happened. Did Bozo give you a BJ once or something? There must be some reason for it?
He wouldn't, the redwall seats only went for Boris in 2019 to get Brexit done, they would not have voted for Remainer Hunt
I have a lot of time for your analysis. However although Johnson won in 2019, on the balance of probability, not least his behaviour, he would have been/ would be spanked in GE2024/5. He is also exactly what the Tories don't need to climb back to electoral relevance.
Instinctively you may be right that Trump will win, but I doubt it will be the shoo-in you suggest. I am surprised you keep using unsafe data when if you hang on for a couple of weeks or so you will have a clearer idea of how things might shake down.
The Conservatives would have won over 200 seats and got over 30% of the vote had Boris remained leader and Reform would not have got more than 10% like they did. Even if Starmer had still won
You cannot confirm that with any surity.
Johnson might have done better in the RedWall, but the Conservatives might have done even worse in their BlueWall. There was a visceral hatred of the Conservative Party and that disdain would have been focused more directly on Johnson had he returned after Truss.
Apart from Hunt's the Tories lost all the Remain seats they were going to lose in the Bluewall this month anyway, Johnson would probably have saved 100 Leave marginal seats though.
Johnson staying also would have meant no Truss Kwarteng budget and interest rates surge
"Johnson staying" would have split the Conservatives asunder. The nation's voters pictured Johnson partying like it's 1999 whilst the Queen mourned Phil the Greek alone in her chapel. The nation despised Johnson, and they still do.
No, correction left liberals and Remainers despised Johnson, most Leavers couldn't care less about his drinks in the No 10 garden.
What split the Tories asunder was the votes lost to Labour and Reform after he was removed
The poll was in the aftermath of the GOP convention and before the Biden announcement.
What have OGH and I told you about hypothetical polls.
Generally they are accurate
Nope.
I’ve been pointing out for years the flaw with hypothetical polling, in 2019 I wrote ‘Hypothetical polls are a lot like Hawaiian pizzas, they should be avoided at all costs by right thinking people everywhere‘ from 2019 here’s why.
Nope, they were right Major would beat Kinnock in 1990 and Thatcher wouldn't and they were right Boris would beat Corbyn in 2019.
A muppet would have beaten Corbyn in 2019. Oh, hang on..................
May didn't in 2017, nor would Hunt have won the redwall in 2019 either
I didn't say 2017 and Jeremy Hunt would most likely have beaten Mr Thicky. The disaster that then followed for the Tories under that complete muppet Johnson that only the insanely stupid still admire would not have happened. Did Bozo give you a BJ once or something? There must be some reason for it?
He wouldn't, the redwall seats only went for Boris in 2019 to get Brexit done, they would not have voted for Remainer Hunt
I have a lot of time for your analysis. However although Johnson won in 2019, on the balance of probability, not least his behaviour, he would have been/ would be spanked in GE2024/5. He is also exactly what the Tories don't need to climb back to electoral relevance.
Instinctively you may be right that Trump will win, but I doubt it will be the shoo-in you suggest. I am surprised you keep using unsafe data when if you hang on for a couple of weeks or so you will have a clearer idea of how things might shake down.
The Conservatives would have won over 200 seats and got over 30% of the vote had Boris remained leader and Reform would not have got more than 10% like they did. Even if Starmer had still won
SSI - Glenn was first American to orbit in space, was elected US Senator (D-Ohio) several time, and was unsuccessful candidate for POTUS in 1984. Personally think he'd have made a better candidate than Walter Mondale.
Comments
In a statement to CNN, actor/Democratic fundraiser George Clooney endorses VP Kamala Harris:
“President Biden has shown what true leadership is. He’s saving democracy once again. We’re all so excited to do whatever we can to support Vice President Harris in her historic quest.”
https://x.com/jaketapper/status/1815720170591056171
One reason I did not vote tactically for Labour at the recent election.
Performances this year were just too much.
I mean, Vingegaard was better than last year only a few months after being in ICU but still got distanced with ease.
The worst moment was him going full gas to try and drop Pogacar and Pogacar sitting behind, sat up, and taking swigs from a water bottle.
Not Normal, as they say.
You'd rule out the MN bod, Pritzer and Beshear on this basis.
Whitmer doesn't balance up the ticket imo, and NC is a stretch beyond both AZ and PA.
So one of Kelly or Shapiro.
SoCal Research has it Harris 43% Trump 51%
https://drive.google.com/file/d/19vb2NtgByJ5MtJkCBHbuI3zUKOB_71iw/view
Yes - by the dozen box....
PA 19 votes so - Shapiro is the more likely on that basis...
Derek Gee finished 9th in 2024 Tour de France (+27:21 to Pogačar) and probably his current version would have won every Sky era Tour by 10+ minutes minimum or close to that. Egan Bernal in 2024 is around his 2019 level if not slightly better and he finished 29th in the 2024 Tour.
https://x.com/CyclingGraphs/status/1815636032164876516
Must be all that baking soda.
It's not just looks. She also has a very pleasant smile, and a lovely laugh. The smile and laugh often look genuine.
Trump... doesn't have this. At all.
As an example:
https://x.com/DouglasEmhoff/status/1815736188595998835
Now the important question: does this matter; does it swing any votes?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/gender-identity/kamala-harris-attended-a-black-university-in-a-black-city-but-she-grew-up-in-a-mostly-white-world/
Some of those candidates are good enough to do the business outside of their states. But while that probably includes Beshear, it also includes (eg) Shapiro - so who knows ?
Harris has game in the sunbelt, so does she look to reinforce that, rather than the rustbelt ?
I suspect she'll wait for more informative polling before she does anything, so I don't expect a particularly quick pick.
But it's all really just guesswork,
Yesterday reminded me strongly of the classic film "The African Queen".
In the movie, with Humphrey Bogart at the engine and Katherine Hepburn on the tiller, the old battered boat survives enemy gunfire and runs raging rapids, as Charlie & Rosie (Bogie & Kate) endure hordes of mosquitos, effect repairs heedless (sorta) of blood-sucking leeches, and end up hauling the AQ through tangles swamp until they find themselves stuck in the muck.
THEN the rains come . . . and slowly but surely float the boat and it's plucky but hitherto hapless crew out of the mud and out to open water . . . to face the might of a brutal, relentless foe . . .
YESTERDAY yours truly watched the clouds parting and the water rising higher, hour by hour, re-floating the Good Ship Democrat and bringing new hope to Democratic politicos, pundits, candidate, activists and above all voters. From California to the New York island, from the redwood forests to the Gulf Stream waters, from Dutch Harbor to Key West.
And NOT just the Presidential Barge. The rising tide of Democratic morale, the gnashing of teeth by the MAGA-maniacs, the increased flood of new campaign money, volunteer enthusiasm and above all HOPE for the future is likely to float a LOT of boats big, middling and small, up and down the ballot.
https://x.com/KFILE/status/1815729998046642215
JD Vance repeatedly indicated in 2016 that he believed Trump committed repeated sexual assault, questioned Trump’s credibility over his accusers and even tweeted, “What percentage of the American population has @realDonaldTrump sexually assaulted?”
First degree from USMMA - a long way from the Ivy League. Or Annapolis, even.
Mum comes across as a BS-artist:
'Cressida also grew up completely understanding right and wrong. She has always been unable to stand by when she sees injustice. She has the courage of a lion and a moral compass that compels her to step forward when she sees wrong.
So she thought it OK to conspire to block up the SE of England reckless as to whether she prevented ambulances getting to hospital. Moral compass, my arse.
https://abcnews.go.com/US/secret-service-director-kimberly-cheatle-resigns-sources/story?id=111990439
Under Harris, the Democrats are sailing to Malta on the SS Ohio in August 1942. Will they make it to Grand Harbour and save the day, despite the efforts of the Republicans?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SS_Ohio_(1940)
That shows a willingness to learn from experience that I doubt Trump will show.
Instinctively you may be right that Trump will win, but I doubt it will be the shoo-in you suggest. I am surprised you keep using unsafe data when if you hang on for a couple of weeks or so you will have a clearer idea of how things might shake down.
Note that this is not only more than the 50% +1 required for nomination (1,979) it is also more than the 2/3 required to secure the Democratic Party nomination from before the Civil War until & including 1932.
Further note the survey current shows just 54 listed as Undecided, meaning that 31% of all DNC delegates have yet to be surveyed.
https://apnews.com/projects/election-results-2024/ap-dnc-delegate-survey/
If you’re head of the Secret Service, you literally have one job to do*
*yes, I know they do other things like counterfeit banknotes and postage.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hEJze4GSVK0
Johnson might have done better in the RedWall, but the Conservatives might have done even worse in their BlueWall. There was a visceral hatred of the Conservative Party and that disdain would have been focused more directly on Johnson had he returned after Truss.
Do we know what the whole scheme cost?
If you have to delegate stuff then fine, but delegate stuff properly and make sure there’s clear communication avenues such that everyone has situational awareness.
Johnson staying also would have meant no Truss Kwarteng budget and interest rates surge
Jeremy Clarkson got in a lot of trouble for saying something similar, but he was talking about a bridge rather than a roof.
Situation changed dramatically when Biden laid an egg in the debate. As public reaction AND polling data clearly showed. Which is what it seems convinced him to take the dramatic, unprecedented and (for him) heart-breaking decision to withdraw from the race and forsake prospect of 2nd term. (Somewhat like "Apollo 13")
AS FOR TIMING, well you & I can criticize away over the timeline, but with respect to the end-game, am thinking that Biden played this amazing well, viz-a-viz the attempted assassination of Donald Trump, the entire GOP Convention, and MOST especially Trump's picking J.D. Vance as his running mate and Mini-Me.
Certainly does NOT appear to be what you'd call a post-convention bounce for DJT-JDV methinks. On the other hand, bounce hardly does justice to what's happening with KH and the Democrats right now.
Hopefully Kamala will have the last laugh.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/05/17/housing-migrants-bibby-stockholm-barge-dorset-more-costly/#:~:text=NAO figures, based on access,4,500 per month per head.
So a consideration but NOT as immediate as winning in 2024 and retaining the White House.
But remind me, why exactly did Johnson leave the stage, and whose fault was it that he ended up resigning?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rHk0LLB5hoI
Edit: I couldn't use a hand whisk and do that as well safely, either, let alone an electric one.
What split the Tories asunder was the votes lost to Labour and Reform after he was removed
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/equestrian/articles/c97d4vnxv45o
"What happened was completely out of character and does not reflect how I train my horses or coach my pupils"
Sounds bad - is the video circulating?
Perhaps it was an angle thing.
Frasier - Frasier - Astronaut John Glenn talks about what he saw in outer space
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qVhDsxTXgPU&t=1s
SSI - Glenn was first American to orbit in space, was elected US Senator (D-Ohio) several time, and was unsuccessful candidate for POTUS in 1984. Personally think he'd have made a better candidate than Walter Mondale.