OT - With respect to Nikki Haley, reckon that she has played her cards with considerable finesse since she dropped out of the 2024 Republican presidential race.
While I'm disappointed that NH ended up, not only folding her tent but endorsing DJT, that was a shrewd move for someone who wants to have a future in the GOP post-2024.
Haley made no bones about her disagreement with the Trump-MAGA perversion of the once Grand Old Party. BUT at same time signed the traditional Republican loyalty oath on the dotted line. Somewhat in the same spirit as some of the newly elected/reelected Celtic nationalist MPs did recently at Westminster.
"What happened was completely out of character and does not reflect how I train my horses or coach my pupils"
Sounds bad - is the video circulating?
The more worrying aspect is that some absolute shitbag sat on the video for four years before deciding to pass it on just before the Olympics.
If the motivation was concern for animal welfare why not pass it on immediately to the authorities so she couldn’t be at risk of repeating over the next four years or maybe some fuck thought they would maximise a payout from a paper or had a personal feud. People are such arseholes.
The poll was in the aftermath of the GOP convention and before the Biden announcement.
What have OGH and I told you about hypothetical polls.
Generally they are accurate
Nope.
I’ve been pointing out for years the flaw with hypothetical polling, in 2019 I wrote ‘Hypothetical polls are a lot like Hawaiian pizzas, they should be avoided at all costs by right thinking people everywhere‘ from 2019 here’s why.
Nope, they were right Major would beat Kinnock in 1990 and Thatcher wouldn't and they were right Boris would beat Corbyn in 2019.
A muppet would have beaten Corbyn in 2019. Oh, hang on..................
May didn't in 2017, nor would Hunt have won the redwall in 2019 either
I didn't say 2017 and Jeremy Hunt would most likely have beaten Mr Thicky. The disaster that then followed for the Tories under that complete muppet Johnson that only the insanely stupid still admire would not have happened. Did Bozo give you a BJ once or something? There must be some reason for it?
He wouldn't, the redwall seats only went for Boris in 2019 to get Brexit done, they would not have voted for Remainer Hunt
I have a lot of time for your analysis. However although Johnson won in 2019, on the balance of probability, not least his behaviour, he would have been/ would be spanked in GE2024/5. He is also exactly what the Tories don't need to climb back to electoral relevance.
Instinctively you may be right that Trump will win, but I doubt it will be the shoo-in you suggest. I am surprised you keep using unsafe data when if you hang on for a couple of weeks or so you will have a clearer idea of how things might shake down.
The Conservatives would have won over 200 seats and got over 30% of the vote had Boris remained leader and Reform would not have got more than 10% like they did. Even if Starmer had still won
What actual evidence do you have for that claim?
None
Wish casting again unfortunately
Boris derangement syndrome alive and well in parts of the conservative party
‘Let’s be clear about Beckham. He likes pineapple on his pizza. He can’t get enough of “The Lion King”. He admits that he has never read a book in his life, almost certainly including the ones he wrote himself.’
The poll was in the aftermath of the GOP convention and before the Biden announcement.
What have OGH and I told you about hypothetical polls.
Generally they are accurate
Nope.
I’ve been pointing out for years the flaw with hypothetical polling, in 2019 I wrote ‘Hypothetical polls are a lot like Hawaiian pizzas, they should be avoided at all costs by right thinking people everywhere‘ from 2019 here’s why.
Nope, they were right Major would beat Kinnock in 1990 and Thatcher wouldn't and they were right Boris would beat Corbyn in 2019.
A muppet would have beaten Corbyn in 2019. Oh, hang on..................
May didn't in 2017, nor would Hunt have won the redwall in 2019 either
I didn't say 2017 and Jeremy Hunt would most likely have beaten Mr Thicky. The disaster that then followed for the Tories under that complete muppet Johnson that only the insanely stupid still admire would not have happened. Did Bozo give you a BJ once or something? There must be some reason for it?
He wouldn't, the redwall seats only went for Boris in 2019 to get Brexit done, they would not have voted for Remainer Hunt
I have a lot of time for your analysis. However although Johnson won in 2019, on the balance of probability, not least his behaviour, he would have been/ would be spanked in GE2024/5. He is also exactly what the Tories don't need to climb back to electoral relevance.
Instinctively you may be right that Trump will win, but I doubt it will be the shoo-in you suggest. I am surprised you keep using unsafe data when if you hang on for a couple of weeks or so you will have a clearer idea of how things might shake down.
The Conservatives would have won over 200 seats and got over 30% of the vote had Boris remained leader and Reform would not have got more than 10% like they did. Even if Starmer had still won
You cannot confirm that with any surity.
Johnson might have done better in the RedWall, but the Conservatives might have done even worse in their BlueWall. There was a visceral hatred of the Conservative Party and that disdain would have been focused more directly on Johnson had he returned after Truss.
Apart from Hunt's the Tories lost all the Remain seats they were going to lose in the Bluewall this month anyway, Johnson would probably have saved 100 Leave marginal seats though.
Johnson staying also would have meant no Truss Kwarteng budget and interest rates surge
"Johnson staying" would have split the Conservatives asunder. The nation's voters pictured Johnson partying like it's 1999 whilst the Queen mourned Phil the Greek alone in her chapel. The nation despised Johnson, and they still do.
No, correction left liberals and Remainers despised Johnson, most Leavers couldn't care less about his drinks in the No 10 garden.
What split the Tories asunder was the votes lost to Labour and Reform after he was removed
No, anymore than Mondale in his 50s failed to beat Reagan in his seventies in 1984
Reagan had that rather good joke in one of the debates that some people were trying to make age into an election issue, but that he promised not to hold his opponent's youth and inexperience against him.
I think, as Democrats found with Biden, there is a real difference between early 70s (as Reagan was in 1984) and late 70s/early 80s. The aging process is really brutal when you get to and beyond that sort of stage. Some people bear up remarkably well, but they are fairly rare - the attrition rate is very high and the physical and mental decline is often very visible to those nearby.It's no longer steady, later life decline - it gets precipitous in many cases.
Indeed, Reagan probably had early stage Alzheimers by the time he left office in 1988 (at the same age Trump is now). It wasn't an issue in 1984, but he declined really sharply right at the end of his time in office and soon after it.
I suspect a reason for Biden's initial stubbornness was that the very same people who urged him to give way to Hillary in 2016 were the very same people who have been urging him to stand down now. No wonder his instinct was to raise two fingers.
If he had stood in 2016, he would have won, and the whole Trump nightmare would never have occurred.
Indeed, Democratic elites still don't understand that what wins in NYC, California and DC is not always what wins in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Ohio. Only after defeat in 2016 for Hillary did they reluctantly agree to back Biden who they felt not intellectually up to the job of POTUS and not really part of their culturally liberal crowd, now he has been forced out with Harris they again have one of their own as nominee.
It is no surprise that the most successful Democratic candidates tend to be southerners or from a rustbelt state like Texas raised LBJ, Georgia raised Carter, Arkansas raised Clinton or Scranton raised Biden rather than the coasts. Even Obama grew up in Kansas and worked in Illinois not NYC, DC, Boston or San Francisco.
The last truly liberal elite coastal Dem to win the Presidency was JFK, born and raised in Massachusetts but even he needed LBJ on his ticket to carry Texas and ensure he beat Nixon in a close race in 1960
Have you, out of interest, spent a lot of time in the US?
I have been to rural Pennsylvania and California and NYC and DC
Even my dog has been to twenty five US states, and in my longer lifetime I’ve managed a few more than him
That’s an awesome picture!
Where, can be this afternoon's quiz question.
Your clues:
- it's a film set rather than a real historical location - it was the set for a pivotal scene in a renowned American film, which was directed by its lead actor.
Full marks for the scene, film and actor; honourable mentions for either or both of the latter?
SSI - Glenn was first American to orbit in space, was elected US Senator (D-Ohio) several time, and was unsuccessful candidate for POTUS in 1984. Personally think he'd have made a better candidate than Walter Mondale.
Mark Kelly is the senator for Arizona; Scott Kelly is not, afaiaa, involved in politics.
The poll was in the aftermath of the GOP convention and before the Biden announcement.
What have OGH and I told you about hypothetical polls.
Generally they are accurate
Nope.
I’ve been pointing out for years the flaw with hypothetical polling, in 2019 I wrote ‘Hypothetical polls are a lot like Hawaiian pizzas, they should be avoided at all costs by right thinking people everywhere‘ from 2019 here’s why.
Nope, they were right Major would beat Kinnock in 1990 and Thatcher wouldn't and they were right Boris would beat Corbyn in 2019.
A muppet would have beaten Corbyn in 2019. Oh, hang on..................
May didn't in 2017, nor would Hunt have won the redwall in 2019 either
I didn't say 2017 and Jeremy Hunt would most likely have beaten Mr Thicky. The disaster that then followed for the Tories under that complete muppet Johnson that only the insanely stupid still admire would not have happened. Did Bozo give you a BJ once or something? There must be some reason for it?
He wouldn't, the redwall seats only went for Boris in 2019 to get Brexit done, they would not have voted for Remainer Hunt
I have a lot of time for your analysis. However although Johnson won in 2019, on the balance of probability, not least his behaviour, he would have been/ would be spanked in GE2024/5. He is also exactly what the Tories don't need to climb back to electoral relevance.
Instinctively you may be right that Trump will win, but I doubt it will be the shoo-in you suggest. I am surprised you keep using unsafe data when if you hang on for a couple of weeks or so you will have a clearer idea of how things might shake down.
The Conservatives would have won over 200 seats and got over 30% of the vote had Boris remained leader and Reform would not have got more than 10% like they did. Even if Starmer had still won
You cannot confirm that with any surity.
Johnson might have done better in the RedWall, but the Conservatives might have done even worse in their BlueWall. There was a visceral hatred of the Conservative Party and that disdain would have been focused more directly on Johnson had he returned after Truss.
Apart from Hunt's the Tories lost all the Remain seats they were going to lose in the Bluewall this month anyway, Johnson would probably have saved 100 Leave marginal seats though.
Johnson staying also would have meant no Truss Kwarteng budget and interest rates surge
"Johnson staying" would have split the Conservatives asunder. The nation's voters pictured Johnson partying like it's 1999 whilst the Queen mourned Phil the Greek alone in her chapel. The nation despised Johnson, and they still do.
No, correction left liberals and Remainers despised Johnson, most Leavers couldn't care less about his drinks in the No 10 garden.
What split the Tories asunder was the votes lost to Labour and Reform after he was removed
Keep believing that, and the Tories will be the third party in the next Parliament.
‘Let’s be clear about Beckham. He likes pineapple on his pizza. He can’t get enough of “The Lion King”. He admits that he has never read a book in his life, almost certainly including the ones he wrote himself.’
And there I was thinking that the Global Reduction in Pizza Pineapple talks had been successful. Poor old TSE has lost his GRIPP.
What a bonkers couple of weeks in American politics.
EDIT: FAKE NEWS, mods please delete.
Dead or alive. What's important on PB is he has comprehensively failed to endorse Harris.
Telling!
LOL. I saw he was trending on Twitter and clicked the ‘latest’ tab which was full of tributes, but it seems they all originate from a fake announcement posting amplified by a bunch of idiots who didn’t read it first. Including me.
‘Let’s be clear about Beckham. He likes pineapple on his pizza. He can’t get enough of “The Lion King”. He admits that he has never read a book in his life, almost certainly including the ones he wrote himself.’
‘Let’s be clear about Beckham. He likes pineapple on his pizza. He can’t get enough of “The Lion King”. He admits that he has never read a book in his life, almost certainly including the ones he wrote himself.’
In one interview, Bernie Sanders was cheekily asked whether he would be willing to run as vice president. He said he'd wait for the call before commenting.
And Jared Polis (Governor of Colorado) was asked on CNN, and replied 'If they decide they want a gay, bald, 49 year old lawyer from Boulder, they have my number.' It made the CNN anchor laugh.
In fairness to Trump, he isn't an 80 year old candidate (although he will turn 80 in office if elected).
My view is Trump remains relatively narrow favourite. So a decent chance Haley will be proved right, and Democrats have improved their chances by ditching Biden, but on balance I think Trump will get over the line (sadly).
I agree, for Harris to win she needs everything to turn out perfectly whereas Trump can get away with not having a perfect night and winning.
By the start of September we need to see some polls showing Harris winning the popular vote.
I disagree. Harris doesn't need everything to be 'perfect'; it's closer than that. But yes, the polls need to show a marked improvement within the next couple of weeks.
This was an interesting snap poll.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4787602-kamala-harris-most-democrats-support-nomination-survey/ A CBS News/YouGov Poll, released Monday, found 79 percent of Democrats support the party nominating Harris to top the 2024 ticket, while 21 percent said someone else should be nominated. The poll, taken just after Biden announced he would withdraw from the race following weeks of calls from some Democrats to step aside over concerns about his stamina to serve another four years or beat former President Trump in November. Biden later endorsed Harris to run in his place and many on the left rapidly united around her candidacy. Harris crossed the threshold to secure the Democratic presidential nomination, receiving over 1,968 delegate endorsements less than two days after Biden dropped out of the race. Roughly 83 percent of Democratic voters said they approved of Biden’s withdrawal from the race, while just 17 percent disapproved, per the survey. About 45 percent of party voters said their chances of defeating Trump are “better” without Biden in the race, while 10 percent said their chances are “worse,” the poll found. Another 17 percent said the chances were not changed and 28 percent said it depends on the nominee. The survey also suggested that Biden’s decision to step aside may prompt more voters to head to the polls this November, with 39 percent of Democrats stating they are more motivated to vote now that the president is out of the race. About 49 percent said it did not change their motivation and 6 percent said it made them less motivated. The CBS News/YouGov poll was conducted July 21-22 among 1,071 registered voters who identify as Democrats. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points...
Certainly feels right, from my own perspective as an actual Democratic voter who is "coastal" (thank God for sea breeze on hot summer days!) but NOT exactly what you'd call "elite".
Yesterday reminded me strongly of the classic film "The African Queen".
In the movie, with Humphrey Bogart at the engine and Katherine Hepburn on the tiller, the old battered boat survives enemy gunfire and runs raging rapids, as Charlie & Rosie (Bogie & Kate) endure hordes of mosquitos, effect repairs heedless (sorta) of blood-sucking leeches, and end up hauling the AQ through tangles swamp until they find themselves stuck in the muck.
THEN the rains come . . . and slowly but surely float the boat and it's plucky but hitherto hapless crew out of the mud and out to open water . . . to face the might of a brutal, relentless foe . . .
YESTERDAY yours truly watched the clouds parting and the water rising higher, hour by hour, re-floating the Good Ship Democrat and bringing new hope to Democratic politicos, pundits, candidate, activists and above all voters. From California to the New York island, from the redwood forests to the Gulf Stream waters, from Dutch Harbor to Key West.
And NOT just the Presidential Barge. The rising tide of Democratic morale, the gnashing of teeth by the MAGA-maniacs, the increased flood of new campaign money, volunteer enthusiasm and above all HOPE for the future is likely to float a LOT of boats big, middling and small, up and down the ballot.
No, anymore than Mondale in his 50s failed to beat Reagan in his seventies in 1984
Reagan had that rather good joke in one of the debates that some people were trying to make age into an election issue, but that he promised not to hold his opponent's youth and inexperience against him.
I think, as Democrats found with Biden, there is a real difference between early 70s (as Reagan was in 1984) and late 70s/early 80s. The aging process is really brutal when you get to and beyond that sort of stage. Some people bear up remarkably well, but they are fairly rare - the attrition rate is very high and the physical and mental decline is often very visible to those nearby.It's no longer steady, later life decline - it gets precipitous in many cases.
Indeed, Reagan probably had early stage Alzheimers by the time he left office in 1988 (at the same age Trump is now). It wasn't an issue in 1984, but he declined really sharply right at the end of his time in office and soon after it.
I suspect a reason for Biden's initial stubbornness was that the very same people who urged him to give way to Hillary in 2016 were the very same people who have been urging him to stand down now. No wonder his instinct was to raise two fingers.
If he had stood in 2016, he would have won, and the whole Trump nightmare would never have occurred.
Indeed, Democratic elites still don't understand that what wins in NYC, California and DC is not always what wins in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Ohio. Only after defeat in 2016 for Hillary did they reluctantly agree to back Biden who they felt not intellectually up to the job of POTUS and not really part of their culturally liberal crowd, now he has been forced out with Harris they again have one of their own as nominee.
It is no surprise that the most successful Democratic candidates tend to be southerners or from a rustbelt state like Texas raised LBJ, Georgia raised Carter, Arkansas raised Clinton or Scranton raised Biden rather than the coasts. Even Obama grew up in Kansas and worked in Illinois not NYC, DC, Boston or San Francisco.
The last truly liberal elite coastal Dem to win the Presidency was JFK, born and raised in Massachusetts but even he needed LBJ on his ticket to carry Texas and ensure he beat Nixon in a close race in 1960
Have you, out of interest, spent a lot of time in the US?
I have been to rural Pennsylvania and California and NYC and DC
Even my dog has been to twenty five US states, and in my longer lifetime I’ve managed a few more than him
The poll was in the aftermath of the GOP convention and before the Biden announcement.
What have OGH and I told you about hypothetical polls.
Generally they are accurate
Nope.
I’ve been pointing out for years the flaw with hypothetical polling, in 2019 I wrote ‘Hypothetical polls are a lot like Hawaiian pizzas, they should be avoided at all costs by right thinking people everywhere‘ from 2019 here’s why.
Nope, they were right Major would beat Kinnock in 1990 and Thatcher wouldn't and they were right Boris would beat Corbyn in 2019.
A muppet would have beaten Corbyn in 2019. Oh, hang on..................
May didn't in 2017, nor would Hunt have won the redwall in 2019 either
I didn't say 2017 and Jeremy Hunt would most likely have beaten Mr Thicky. The disaster that then followed for the Tories under that complete muppet Johnson that only the insanely stupid still admire would not have happened. Did Bozo give you a BJ once or something? There must be some reason for it?
He wouldn't, the redwall seats only went for Boris in 2019 to get Brexit done, they would not have voted for Remainer Hunt
I have a lot of time for your analysis. However although Johnson won in 2019, on the balance of probability, not least his behaviour, he would have been/ would be spanked in GE2024/5. He is also exactly what the Tories don't need to climb back to electoral relevance.
Instinctively you may be right that Trump will win, but I doubt it will be the shoo-in you suggest. I am surprised you keep using unsafe data when if you hang on for a couple of weeks or so you will have a clearer idea of how things might shake down.
The Conservatives would have won over 200 seats and got over 30% of the vote had Boris remained leader and Reform would not have got more than 10% like they did. Even if Starmer had still won
What actual evidence do you have for that claim?
None
Wish casting again unfortunately
There wouldn't be many comments here but for wish casting
Half a million households cancelled their licence fee last year as the BBC struggled to connect with younger audiences drifting away to Netflix and YouTube.
The stark extent of the BBC’s challenges are set out in the corporation’s annual report, which shows the total number of British households paying the £169.50 licence fee fell to 23.9 million, suggesting a growing number of people feel able to go without BBC services.
When does Labour just add the TV tax to council tax?
The poll was in the aftermath of the GOP convention and before the Biden announcement.
What have OGH and I told you about hypothetical polls.
Generally they are accurate
Nope.
I’ve been pointing out for years the flaw with hypothetical polling, in 2019 I wrote ‘Hypothetical polls are a lot like Hawaiian pizzas, they should be avoided at all costs by right thinking people everywhere‘ from 2019 here’s why.
Nope, they were right Major would beat Kinnock in 1990 and Thatcher wouldn't and they were right Boris would beat Corbyn in 2019.
A muppet would have beaten Corbyn in 2019. Oh, hang on..................
May didn't in 2017, nor would Hunt have won the redwall in 2019 either
I didn't say 2017 and Jeremy Hunt would most likely have beaten Mr Thicky. The disaster that then followed for the Tories under that complete muppet Johnson that only the insanely stupid still admire would not have happened. Did Bozo give you a BJ once or something? There must be some reason for it?
He wouldn't, the redwall seats only went for Boris in 2019 to get Brexit done, they would not have voted for Remainer Hunt
I have a lot of time for your analysis. However although Johnson won in 2019, on the balance of probability, not least his behaviour, he would have been/ would be spanked in GE2024/5. He is also exactly what the Tories don't need to climb back to electoral relevance.
Instinctively you may be right that Trump will win, but I doubt it will be the shoo-in you suggest. I am surprised you keep using unsafe data when if you hang on for a couple of weeks or so you will have a clearer idea of how things might shake down.
The Conservatives would have won over 200 seats and got over 30% of the vote had Boris remained leader and Reform would not have got more than 10% like they did. Even if Starmer had still won
You cannot confirm that with any surity.
Johnson might have done better in the RedWall, but the Conservatives might have done even worse in their BlueWall. There was a visceral hatred of the Conservative Party and that disdain would have been focused more directly on Johnson had he returned after Truss.
Apart from Hunt's the Tories lost all the Remain seats they were going to lose in the Bluewall this month anyway, Johnson would probably have saved 100 Leave marginal seats though.
Johnson staying also would have meant no Truss Kwarteng budget and interest rates surge
"Johnson staying" would have split the Conservatives asunder. The nation's voters pictured Johnson partying like it's 1999 whilst the Queen mourned Phil the Greek alone in her chapel. The nation despised Johnson, and they still do.
No, correction left liberals and Remainers despised Johnson, most Leavers couldn't care less about his drinks in the No 10 garden.
What split the Tories asunder was the votes lost to Labour and Reform after he was removed
Keep believing that, and the Tories will be the third party in the next Parliament.
It is true. Tories and Reform combined were 38% on 4th July which would have been the first party in Parliament ahead of Labour on 33%, not even second let alone third with the LDs on just 12%.
It was Boris who united the Tory and BXP/Reform vote in 2019
The poll was in the aftermath of the GOP convention and before the Biden announcement.
What have OGH and I told you about hypothetical polls.
Generally they are accurate
Nope.
I’ve been pointing out for years the flaw with hypothetical polling, in 2019 I wrote ‘Hypothetical polls are a lot like Hawaiian pizzas, they should be avoided at all costs by right thinking people everywhere‘ from 2019 here’s why.
Nope, they were right Major would beat Kinnock in 1990 and Thatcher wouldn't and they were right Boris would beat Corbyn in 2019.
A muppet would have beaten Corbyn in 2019. Oh, hang on..................
May didn't in 2017, nor would Hunt have won the redwall in 2019 either
I didn't say 2017 and Jeremy Hunt would most likely have beaten Mr Thicky. The disaster that then followed for the Tories under that complete muppet Johnson that only the insanely stupid still admire would not have happened. Did Bozo give you a BJ once or something? There must be some reason for it?
He wouldn't, the redwall seats only went for Boris in 2019 to get Brexit done, they would not have voted for Remainer Hunt
I have a lot of time for your analysis. However although Johnson won in 2019, on the balance of probability, not least his behaviour, he would have been/ would be spanked in GE2024/5. He is also exactly what the Tories don't need to climb back to electoral relevance.
Instinctively you may be right that Trump will win, but I doubt it will be the shoo-in you suggest. I am surprised you keep using unsafe data when if you hang on for a couple of weeks or so you will have a clearer idea of how things might shake down.
The Conservatives would have won over 200 seats and got over 30% of the vote had Boris remained leader and Reform would not have got more than 10% like they did. Even if Starmer had still won
You cannot confirm that with any surity.
Johnson might have done better in the RedWall, but the Conservatives might have done even worse in their BlueWall. There was a visceral hatred of the Conservative Party and that disdain would have been focused more directly on Johnson had he returned after Truss.
Apart from Hunt's the Tories lost all the Remain seats they were going to lose in the Bluewall this month anyway, Johnson would probably have saved 100 Leave marginal seats though.
Johnson staying also would have meant no Truss Kwarteng budget and interest rates surge
"Johnson staying" would have split the Conservatives asunder. The nation's voters pictured Johnson partying like it's 1999 whilst the Queen mourned Phil the Greek alone in her chapel. The nation despised Johnson, and they still do.
No, correction left liberals and Remainers despised Johnson, most Leavers couldn't care less about his drinks in the No 10 garden.
What split the Tories asunder was the votes lost to Labour and Reform after he was removed
Keep believing that, and the Tories will be the third party in the next Parliament.
The likes of HY seem to think that the coalition put together by Johnson is a trick that could be repeated.
Yet he forgets:
- that Johnson was hugely helped by being up against Corbyn. - that the northern part of Johnson's coalition was won over by a promise of levelling up that turned out to be a lie. - that the southern part of Johnson's coalition wanted Brexit 'done with', not just 'done'.
Corbyn is history.
The northern voters are once fooled, twice shy.
The southern voters now see the Tory Brexit for the con trick that it always was.
Those voters who have stuck with the Tories will shortly be dying off at a very signficant rate.
Twitter has been pretty quick to delete stuff, as have a lot of embarrased independent journalists who rely too much on Twitter because they don’t have access to the mainstream official communications channels that might report these things.
If nothing else, it’s an example of how screwed-up things are going to be for the next four months in US politics.
Now the important question: does this matter; does it swing any votes?
It might do. If Harris comes across as relatable I think she has a good chance of being president. I don't believe she's naturally touchy feely so she will need to learn very fast.
Trump isn't at all relatable. He has an extremely negative personality.
Half a million households cancelled their licence fee last year as the BBC struggled to connect with younger audiences drifting away to Netflix and YouTube.
The stark extent of the BBC’s challenges are set out in the corporation’s annual report, which shows the total number of British households paying the £169.50 licence fee fell to 23.9 million, suggesting a growing number of people feel able to go without BBC services.
When does Labour just add the TV tax to council tax?
It’s the most regressive tax of all, results in tens of thousands of mostly single mothers getting criminal convictions every year, and is going to end up going away anyway as the media landscape changes. There’s a huge opportunity for the new government to do the job properly and scrap the licence fee.
The poll was in the aftermath of the GOP convention and before the Biden announcement.
What have OGH and I told you about hypothetical polls.
Generally they are accurate
Nope.
I’ve been pointing out for years the flaw with hypothetical polling, in 2019 I wrote ‘Hypothetical polls are a lot like Hawaiian pizzas, they should be avoided at all costs by right thinking people everywhere‘ from 2019 here’s why.
Nope, they were right Major would beat Kinnock in 1990 and Thatcher wouldn't and they were right Boris would beat Corbyn in 2019.
A muppet would have beaten Corbyn in 2019. Oh, hang on..................
May didn't in 2017, nor would Hunt have won the redwall in 2019 either
I didn't say 2017 and Jeremy Hunt would most likely have beaten Mr Thicky. The disaster that then followed for the Tories under that complete muppet Johnson that only the insanely stupid still admire would not have happened. Did Bozo give you a BJ once or something? There must be some reason for it?
He wouldn't, the redwall seats only went for Boris in 2019 to get Brexit done, they would not have voted for Remainer Hunt
I have a lot of time for your analysis. However although Johnson won in 2019, on the balance of probability, not least his behaviour, he would have been/ would be spanked in GE2024/5. He is also exactly what the Tories don't need to climb back to electoral relevance.
Instinctively you may be right that Trump will win, but I doubt it will be the shoo-in you suggest. I am surprised you keep using unsafe data when if you hang on for a couple of weeks or so you will have a clearer idea of how things might shake down.
The Conservatives would have won over 200 seats and got over 30% of the vote had Boris remained leader and Reform would not have got more than 10% like they did. Even if Starmer had still won
You cannot confirm that with any surity.
Johnson might have done better in the RedWall, but the Conservatives might have done even worse in their BlueWall. There was a visceral hatred of the Conservative Party and that disdain would have been focused more directly on Johnson had he returned after Truss.
Apart from Hunt's the Tories lost all the Remain seats they were going to lose in the Bluewall this month anyway, Johnson would probably have saved 100 Leave marginal seats though.
Johnson staying also would have meant no Truss Kwarteng budget and interest rates surge
"Johnson staying" would have split the Conservatives asunder. The nation's voters pictured Johnson partying like it's 1999 whilst the Queen mourned Phil the Greek alone in her chapel. The nation despised Johnson, and they still do.
No, correction left liberals and Remainers despised Johnson, most Leavers couldn't care less about his drinks in the No 10 garden.
What split the Tories asunder was the votes lost to Labour and Reform after he was removed
Keep believing that, and the Tories will be the third party in the next Parliament.
It is true. Tories and Reform combined were 38% on 4th July which would have been the first party in Parliament ahead of Labour on 33%, not even second let alone third with the LDs on just 12%.
It was Boris who united the Tory and BXP/Reform vote in 2019
You can’t just add Tory and Reform together and present that as what you’d get in an election if there was an alliance .
The poll was in the aftermath of the GOP convention and before the Biden announcement.
What have OGH and I told you about hypothetical polls.
Generally they are accurate
Nope.
I’ve been pointing out for years the flaw with hypothetical polling, in 2019 I wrote ‘Hypothetical polls are a lot like Hawaiian pizzas, they should be avoided at all costs by right thinking people everywhere‘ from 2019 here’s why.
Nope, they were right Major would beat Kinnock in 1990 and Thatcher wouldn't and they were right Boris would beat Corbyn in 2019.
A muppet would have beaten Corbyn in 2019. Oh, hang on..................
May didn't in 2017, nor would Hunt have won the redwall in 2019 either
I didn't say 2017 and Jeremy Hunt would most likely have beaten Mr Thicky. The disaster that then followed for the Tories under that complete muppet Johnson that only the insanely stupid still admire would not have happened. Did Bozo give you a BJ once or something? There must be some reason for it?
He wouldn't, the redwall seats only went for Boris in 2019 to get Brexit done, they would not have voted for Remainer Hunt
I have a lot of time for your analysis. However although Johnson won in 2019, on the balance of probability, not least his behaviour, he would have been/ would be spanked in GE2024/5. He is also exactly what the Tories don't need to climb back to electoral relevance.
Instinctively you may be right that Trump will win, but I doubt it will be the shoo-in you suggest. I am surprised you keep using unsafe data when if you hang on for a couple of weeks or so you will have a clearer idea of how things might shake down.
The Conservatives would have won over 200 seats and got over 30% of the vote had Boris remained leader and Reform would not have got more than 10% like they did. Even if Starmer had still won
You cannot confirm that with any surity.
Johnson might have done better in the RedWall, but the Conservatives might have done even worse in their BlueWall. There was a visceral hatred of the Conservative Party and that disdain would have been focused more directly on Johnson had he returned after Truss.
Apart from Hunt's the Tories lost all the Remain seats they were going to lose in the Bluewall this month anyway, Johnson would probably have saved 100 Leave marginal seats though.
Johnson staying also would have meant no Truss Kwarteng budget and interest rates surge
"Johnson staying" would have split the Conservatives asunder. The nation's voters pictured Johnson partying like it's 1999 whilst the Queen mourned Phil the Greek alone in her chapel. The nation despised Johnson, and they still do.
No, correction left liberals and Remainers despised Johnson, most Leavers couldn't care less about his drinks in the No 10 garden.
What split the Tories asunder was the votes lost to Labour and Reform after he was removed
Keep believing that, and the Tories will be the third party in the next Parliament.
It is true. Tories and Reform combined were 38% on 4th July which would have been the first party in Parliament ahead of Labour on 33%, not even second let alone third with the LDs on just 12%.
It was Boris who united the Tory and BXP/Reform vote in 2019
38%? That's nothing. Biden and Trump were on 98.1% combined in 2020.
No, anymore than Mondale in his 50s failed to beat Reagan in his seventies in 1984
Reagan had that rather good joke in one of the debates that some people were trying to make age into an election issue, but that he promised not to hold his opponent's youth and inexperience against him.
I think, as Democrats found with Biden, there is a real difference between early 70s (as Reagan was in 1984) and late 70s/early 80s. The aging process is really brutal when you get to and beyond that sort of stage. Some people bear up remarkably well, but they are fairly rare - the attrition rate is very high and the physical and mental decline is often very visible to those nearby.It's no longer steady, later life decline - it gets precipitous in many cases.
Indeed, Reagan probably had early stage Alzheimers by the time he left office in 1988 (at the same age Trump is now). It wasn't an issue in 1984, but he declined really sharply right at the end of his time in office and soon after it.
I suspect a reason for Biden's initial stubbornness was that the very same people who urged him to give way to Hillary in 2016 were the very same people who have been urging him to stand down now. No wonder his instinct was to raise two fingers.
If he had stood in 2016, he would have won, and the whole Trump nightmare would never have occurred.
Indeed, Democratic elites still don't understand that what wins in NYC, California and DC is not always what wins in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Ohio. Only after defeat in 2016 for Hillary did they reluctantly agree to back Biden who they felt not intellectually up to the job of POTUS and not really part of their culturally liberal crowd, now he has been forced out with Harris they again have one of their own as nominee.
It is no surprise that the most successful Democratic candidates tend to be southerners or from a rustbelt state like Texas raised LBJ, Georgia raised Carter, Arkansas raised Clinton or Scranton raised Biden rather than the coasts. Even Obama grew up in Kansas and worked in Illinois not NYC, DC, Boston or San Francisco.
The last truly liberal elite coastal Dem to win the Presidency was JFK, born and raised in Massachusetts but even he needed LBJ on his ticket to carry Texas and ensure he beat Nixon in a close race in 1960
Have you, out of interest, spent a lot of time in the US?
I have been to rural Pennsylvania and California and NYC and DC
Even my dog has been to twenty five US states, and in my longer lifetime I’ve managed a few more than him
That’s an awesome picture!
Where, can be this afternoon's quiz question.
Your clues:
- it's a film set rather than a real historical location - it was the set for a pivotal scene in a renowned American film, which was directed by its lead actor.
Full marks for the scene, film and actor; honourable mentions for either or both of the latter?
Without googling, is it Dances With Wolves/Kevin Costner?
Twitter has been pretty quick to delete stuff, as have a lot of embarrased independent journalists who rely too much on Twitter because they don’t have access to the mainstream official communications channels that might report these things.
If nothing else, it’s an example of how screwed-up things are going to be for the next four months in US politics.
And one rather embarrassed independent PB poster, I gather.
For those of you who still think Israel impartially governs the West Bank, here is an example of how they protect Jewish settler vigilantes and prevent Palestinians from defending themselves.
The poll was in the aftermath of the GOP convention and before the Biden announcement.
What have OGH and I told you about hypothetical polls.
Generally they are accurate
Nope.
I’ve been pointing out for years the flaw with hypothetical polling, in 2019 I wrote ‘Hypothetical polls are a lot like Hawaiian pizzas, they should be avoided at all costs by right thinking people everywhere‘ from 2019 here’s why.
Nope, they were right Major would beat Kinnock in 1990 and Thatcher wouldn't and they were right Boris would beat Corbyn in 2019.
A muppet would have beaten Corbyn in 2019. Oh, hang on..................
May didn't in 2017, nor would Hunt have won the redwall in 2019 either
I didn't say 2017 and Jeremy Hunt would most likely have beaten Mr Thicky. The disaster that then followed for the Tories under that complete muppet Johnson that only the insanely stupid still admire would not have happened. Did Bozo give you a BJ once or something? There must be some reason for it?
He wouldn't, the redwall seats only went for Boris in 2019 to get Brexit done, they would not have voted for Remainer Hunt
I have a lot of time for your analysis. However although Johnson won in 2019, on the balance of probability, not least his behaviour, he would have been/ would be spanked in GE2024/5. He is also exactly what the Tories don't need to climb back to electoral relevance.
Instinctively you may be right that Trump will win, but I doubt it will be the shoo-in you suggest. I am surprised you keep using unsafe data when if you hang on for a couple of weeks or so you will have a clearer idea of how things might shake down.
The Conservatives would have won over 200 seats and got over 30% of the vote had Boris remained leader and Reform would not have got more than 10% like they did. Even if Starmer had still won
You cannot confirm that with any surity.
Johnson might have done better in the RedWall, but the Conservatives might have done even worse in their BlueWall. There was a visceral hatred of the Conservative Party and that disdain would have been focused more directly on Johnson had he returned after Truss.
Apart from Hunt's the Tories lost all the Remain seats they were going to lose in the Bluewall this month anyway, Johnson would probably have saved 100 Leave marginal seats though.
Johnson staying also would have meant no Truss Kwarteng budget and interest rates surge
"Johnson staying" would have split the Conservatives asunder. The nation's voters pictured Johnson partying like it's 1999 whilst the Queen mourned Phil the Greek alone in her chapel. The nation despised Johnson, and they still do.
No, correction left liberals and Remainers despised Johnson, most Leavers couldn't care less about his drinks in the No 10 garden.
What split the Tories asunder was the votes lost to Labour and Reform after he was removed
Keep believing that, and the Tories will be the third party in the next Parliament.
It is true. Tories and Reform combined were 38% on 4th July which would have been the first party in Parliament ahead of Labour on 33%, not even second let alone third with the LDs on just 12%.
It was Boris who united the Tory and BXP/Reform vote in 2019
You can’t just add Tory and Reform together and present that as what you’d get in an election if there was an alliance .
Half a million households cancelled their licence fee last year as the BBC struggled to connect with younger audiences drifting away to Netflix and YouTube.
The stark extent of the BBC’s challenges are set out in the corporation’s annual report, which shows the total number of British households paying the £169.50 licence fee fell to 23.9 million, suggesting a growing number of people feel able to go without BBC services.
When does Labour just add the TV tax to council tax?
It’s the most regressive tax of all, results in tens of thousands of mostly single mothers getting criminal convictions every year, and is going to end up going away anyway as the media landscape changes. There’s a huge opportunity for the new government to do the job properly and scrap the licence fee.
There is, but I’m afraid that isn’t going to happen under Labour.
OT - With respect to Nikki Haley, reckon that she has played her cards with considerable finesse since she dropped out of the 2024 Republican presidential race.
While I'm disappointed that NH ended up, not only folding her tent but endorsing DJT, that was a shrewd move for someone who wants to have a future in the GOP post-2024.
Haley made no bones about her disagreement with the Trump-MAGA perversion of the once Grand Old Party. BUT at same time signed the traditional Republican loyalty oath on the dotted line. Somewhat in the same spirit as some of the newly elected/reelected Celtic nationalist MPs did recently at Westminster.
Nikki Haley has destroyed any credibility she ever had in her flip flopping. She said Trump was unfit to be president and then turns around to endorse him? A pathetic snivelling weasel.
The poll was in the aftermath of the GOP convention and before the Biden announcement.
What have OGH and I told you about hypothetical polls.
Generally they are accurate
Nope.
I’ve been pointing out for years the flaw with hypothetical polling, in 2019 I wrote ‘Hypothetical polls are a lot like Hawaiian pizzas, they should be avoided at all costs by right thinking people everywhere‘ from 2019 here’s why.
Nope, they were right Major would beat Kinnock in 1990 and Thatcher wouldn't and they were right Boris would beat Corbyn in 2019.
A muppet would have beaten Corbyn in 2019. Oh, hang on..................
May didn't in 2017, nor would Hunt have won the redwall in 2019 either
I didn't say 2017 and Jeremy Hunt would most likely have beaten Mr Thicky. The disaster that then followed for the Tories under that complete muppet Johnson that only the insanely stupid still admire would not have happened. Did Bozo give you a BJ once or something? There must be some reason for it?
He wouldn't, the redwall seats only went for Boris in 2019 to get Brexit done, they would not have voted for Remainer Hunt
I have a lot of time for your analysis. However although Johnson won in 2019, on the balance of probability, not least his behaviour, he would have been/ would be spanked in GE2024/5. He is also exactly what the Tories don't need to climb back to electoral relevance.
Instinctively you may be right that Trump will win, but I doubt it will be the shoo-in you suggest. I am surprised you keep using unsafe data when if you hang on for a couple of weeks or so you will have a clearer idea of how things might shake down.
The Conservatives would have won over 200 seats and got over 30% of the vote had Boris remained leader and Reform would not have got more than 10% like they did. Even if Starmer had still won
You cannot confirm that with any surity.
Johnson might have done better in the RedWall, but the Conservatives might have done even worse in their BlueWall. There was a visceral hatred of the Conservative Party and that disdain would have been focused more directly on Johnson had he returned after Truss.
Apart from Hunt's the Tories lost all the Remain seats they were going to lose in the Bluewall this month anyway, Johnson would probably have saved 100 Leave marginal seats though.
Johnson staying also would have meant no Truss Kwarteng budget and interest rates surge
"Johnson staying" would have split the Conservatives asunder. The nation's voters pictured Johnson partying like it's 1999 whilst the Queen mourned Phil the Greek alone in her chapel. The nation despised Johnson, and they still do.
No, correction left liberals and Remainers despised Johnson, most Leavers couldn't care less about his drinks in the No 10 garden.
What split the Tories asunder was the votes lost to Labour and Reform after he was removed
Keep believing that, and the Tories will be the third party in the next Parliament.
It is true. Tories and Reform combined were 38% on 4th July which would have been the first party in Parliament ahead of Labour on 33%, not even second let alone third with the LDs on just 12%.
It was Boris who united the Tory and BXP/Reform vote in 2019
You can’t just add Tory and Reform together and present that as what you’d get in an election if there was an alliance .
HYUFD can. And frequently does.
The polling evidence is most Tories would vote Reform over Labour and most Reform voters would vote Tory over Labour or the LDs.
2024 Tories are admittedly split about even whether they would vote Reform over LD or LD over Reform but there are far more Tory v Labour marginals than Tory v LD
The poll was in the aftermath of the GOP convention and before the Biden announcement.
What have OGH and I told you about hypothetical polls.
Generally they are accurate
Nope.
I’ve been pointing out for years the flaw with hypothetical polling, in 2019 I wrote ‘Hypothetical polls are a lot like Hawaiian pizzas, they should be avoided at all costs by right thinking people everywhere‘ from 2019 here’s why.
Nope, they were right Major would beat Kinnock in 1990 and Thatcher wouldn't and they were right Boris would beat Corbyn in 2019.
A muppet would have beaten Corbyn in 2019. Oh, hang on..................
May didn't in 2017, nor would Hunt have won the redwall in 2019 either
I didn't say 2017 and Jeremy Hunt would most likely have beaten Mr Thicky. The disaster that then followed for the Tories under that complete muppet Johnson that only the insanely stupid still admire would not have happened. Did Bozo give you a BJ once or something? There must be some reason for it?
He wouldn't, the redwall seats only went for Boris in 2019 to get Brexit done, they would not have voted for Remainer Hunt
I have a lot of time for your analysis. However although Johnson won in 2019, on the balance of probability, not least his behaviour, he would have been/ would be spanked in GE2024/5. He is also exactly what the Tories don't need to climb back to electoral relevance.
Instinctively you may be right that Trump will win, but I doubt it will be the shoo-in you suggest. I am surprised you keep using unsafe data when if you hang on for a couple of weeks or so you will have a clearer idea of how things might shake down.
The Conservatives would have won over 200 seats and got over 30% of the vote had Boris remained leader and Reform would not have got more than 10% like they did. Even if Starmer had still won
You cannot confirm that with any surity.
Johnson might have done better in the RedWall, but the Conservatives might have done even worse in their BlueWall. There was a visceral hatred of the Conservative Party and that disdain would have been focused more directly on Johnson had he returned after Truss.
Apart from Hunt's the Tories lost all the Remain seats they were going to lose in the Bluewall this month anyway, Johnson would probably have saved 100 Leave marginal seats though.
Johnson staying also would have meant no Truss Kwarteng budget and interest rates surge
"Johnson staying" would have split the Conservatives asunder. The nation's voters pictured Johnson partying like it's 1999 whilst the Queen mourned Phil the Greek alone in her chapel. The nation despised Johnson, and they still do.
No, correction left liberals and Remainers despised Johnson, most Leavers couldn't care less about his drinks in the No 10 garden.
What split the Tories asunder was the votes lost to Labour and Reform after he was removed
Keep believing that, and the Tories will be the third party in the next Parliament.
It is true. Tories and Reform combined were 38% on 4th July which would have been the first party in Parliament ahead of Labour on 33%, not even second let alone third with the LDs on just 12%.
It was Boris who united the Tory and BXP/Reform vote in 2019
38%? That's nothing. Biden and Trump were on 98.1% combined in 2020.
And 99% of their voters would not vote for the other one!
The poll was in the aftermath of the GOP convention and before the Biden announcement.
What have OGH and I told you about hypothetical polls.
Generally they are accurate
Nope.
I’ve been pointing out for years the flaw with hypothetical polling, in 2019 I wrote ‘Hypothetical polls are a lot like Hawaiian pizzas, they should be avoided at all costs by right thinking people everywhere‘ from 2019 here’s why.
Nope, they were right Major would beat Kinnock in 1990 and Thatcher wouldn't and they were right Boris would beat Corbyn in 2019.
A muppet would have beaten Corbyn in 2019. Oh, hang on..................
May didn't in 2017, nor would Hunt have won the redwall in 2019 either
I didn't say 2017 and Jeremy Hunt would most likely have beaten Mr Thicky. The disaster that then followed for the Tories under that complete muppet Johnson that only the insanely stupid still admire would not have happened. Did Bozo give you a BJ once or something? There must be some reason for it?
He wouldn't, the redwall seats only went for Boris in 2019 to get Brexit done, they would not have voted for Remainer Hunt
I have a lot of time for your analysis. However although Johnson won in 2019, on the balance of probability, not least his behaviour, he would have been/ would be spanked in GE2024/5. He is also exactly what the Tories don't need to climb back to electoral relevance.
Instinctively you may be right that Trump will win, but I doubt it will be the shoo-in you suggest. I am surprised you keep using unsafe data when if you hang on for a couple of weeks or so you will have a clearer idea of how things might shake down.
The Conservatives would have won over 200 seats and got over 30% of the vote had Boris remained leader and Reform would not have got more than 10% like they did. Even if Starmer had still won
You cannot confirm that with any surity.
Johnson might have done better in the RedWall, but the Conservatives might have done even worse in their BlueWall. There was a visceral hatred of the Conservative Party and that disdain would have been focused more directly on Johnson had he returned after Truss.
Apart from Hunt's the Tories lost all the Remain seats they were going to lose in the Bluewall this month anyway, Johnson would probably have saved 100 Leave marginal seats though.
Johnson staying also would have meant no Truss Kwarteng budget and interest rates surge
"Johnson staying" would have split the Conservatives asunder. The nation's voters pictured Johnson partying like it's 1999 whilst the Queen mourned Phil the Greek alone in her chapel. The nation despised Johnson, and they still do.
No, correction left liberals and Remainers despised Johnson, most Leavers couldn't care less about his drinks in the No 10 garden.
What split the Tories asunder was the votes lost to Labour and Reform after he was removed
Keep believing that, and the Tories will be the third party in the next Parliament.
It is true. Tories and Reform combined were 38% on 4th July which would have been the first party in Parliament ahead of Labour on 33%, not even second let alone third with the LDs on just 12%.
It was Boris who united the Tory and BXP/Reform vote in 2019
You can’t just add Tory and Reform together and present that as what you’d get in an election if there was an alliance .
HYUFD can. And frequently does.
The polling evidence is most Tories would vote Reform over Labour and most Reform voters would vote Tory over Labour or the LDs.
2024 Tories are admittedly split about even whether they would vote Reform over LD or LD over Reform but there are far more Tory v Labour marginals than Tory v LD
But you were counting ALL Tory voters and ALL Labour voters when getting a hypothetical B. Johnson over the electoral hedge in a hypothetical electoral Derby.
*Did* you do maths O level at your posh grammar school?
OT - With respect to Nikki Haley, reckon that she has played her cards with considerable finesse since she dropped out of the 2024 Republican presidential race.
While I'm disappointed that NH ended up, not only folding her tent but endorsing DJT, that was a shrewd move for someone who wants to have a future in the GOP post-2024.
Haley made no bones about her disagreement with the Trump-MAGA perversion of the once Grand Old Party. BUT at same time signed the traditional Republican loyalty oath on the dotted line. Somewhat in the same spirit as some of the newly elected/reelected Celtic nationalist MPs did recently at Westminster.
Nikki Haley has destroyed any credibility she ever had in her flip flopping. She said Trump was unfit to be president and then turns around to endorse him? A pathetic snivelling weasel.
That's 80% of the GOP. At least Haley held out for another few months...
Kayaking down the Gorge du Tarn on a cloudless summer day
Fucking sublime
Reminds me of a group "study tour of the Midi" I did in 1964 with AIESEC students, when my coach companion was Peter Lilley. His sister was the interpreter for monoglots. Have you done the red cathedral at Albi yet (I believe it has some "noom" as you call it) ?
Twitter has been pretty quick to delete stuff, as have a lot of embarrased independent journalists who rely too much on Twitter because they don’t have access to the mainstream official communications channels that might report these things.
If nothing else, it’s an example of how screwed-up things are going to be for the next four months in US politics.
And one rather embarrassed independent PB poster, I gather.
Ha yeah.
Here’s the actual letter from the source. It’s obviously bollocks if you read more than the first paragraph, but the key is the website link which was actually working.
It is absurdly idyllic. Enough rapids to make it exciting but then long calm stretches where the sun dapples on the cool green water and the kingfishers dip in dazzlement and jewel blue dragonflies alight on your paddle
And all the way down there are French families sitting in chairs in the water. Their teen daughters laughing and swimming with their boyfriends. Kids zip wire overhead and say Bonjour! Picnics on the pebbled river beaches. Flasks of cold wine and wheels of melting cheese and beers chilled in the backwaters
The poll was in the aftermath of the GOP convention and before the Biden announcement.
What have OGH and I told you about hypothetical polls.
Generally they are accurate
Nope.
I’ve been pointing out for years the flaw with hypothetical polling, in 2019 I wrote ‘Hypothetical polls are a lot like Hawaiian pizzas, they should be avoided at all costs by right thinking people everywhere‘ from 2019 here’s why.
Nope, they were right Major would beat Kinnock in 1990 and Thatcher wouldn't and they were right Boris would beat Corbyn in 2019.
A muppet would have beaten Corbyn in 2019. Oh, hang on..................
May didn't in 2017, nor would Hunt have won the redwall in 2019 either
I didn't say 2017 and Jeremy Hunt would most likely have beaten Mr Thicky. The disaster that then followed for the Tories under that complete muppet Johnson that only the insanely stupid still admire would not have happened. Did Bozo give you a BJ once or something? There must be some reason for it?
He wouldn't, the redwall seats only went for Boris in 2019 to get Brexit done, they would not have voted for Remainer Hunt
I have a lot of time for your analysis. However although Johnson won in 2019, on the balance of probability, not least his behaviour, he would have been/ would be spanked in GE2024/5. He is also exactly what the Tories don't need to climb back to electoral relevance.
Instinctively you may be right that Trump will win, but I doubt it will be the shoo-in you suggest. I am surprised you keep using unsafe data when if you hang on for a couple of weeks or so you will have a clearer idea of how things might shake down.
The Conservatives would have won over 200 seats and got over 30% of the vote had Boris remained leader and Reform would not have got more than 10% like they did. Even if Starmer had still won
You cannot confirm that with any surity.
Johnson might have done better in the RedWall, but the Conservatives might have done even worse in their BlueWall. There was a visceral hatred of the Conservative Party and that disdain would have been focused more directly on Johnson had he returned after Truss.
Apart from Hunt's the Tories lost all the Remain seats they were going to lose in the Bluewall this month anyway, Johnson would probably have saved 100 Leave marginal seats though.
Johnson staying also would have meant no Truss Kwarteng budget and interest rates surge
"Johnson staying" would have split the Conservatives asunder. The nation's voters pictured Johnson partying like it's 1999 whilst the Queen mourned Phil the Greek alone in her chapel. The nation despised Johnson, and they still do.
No, correction left liberals and Remainers despised Johnson, most Leavers couldn't care less about his drinks in the No 10 garden.
What split the Tories asunder was the votes lost to Labour and Reform after he was removed
Keep believing that, and the Tories will be the third party in the next Parliament.
It is true. Tories and Reform combined were 38% on 4th July which would have been the first party in Parliament ahead of Labour on 33%, not even second let alone third with the LDs on just 12%.
It was Boris who united the Tory and BXP/Reform vote in 2019
You are still persisting in the fake claim of tory and reform combining percentage when everyone apart from yourself knows that is utter nonsense
As for 2019 that was then and since then Johnson shamed the nation with his partying during covid and many other misdemeanours which ordinary people just dispise even though you say some don't care
No, anymore than Mondale in his 50s failed to beat Reagan in his seventies in 1984
Reagan had that rather good joke in one of the debates that some people were trying to make age into an election issue, but that he promised not to hold his opponent's youth and inexperience against him.
I think, as Democrats found with Biden, there is a real difference between early 70s (as Reagan was in 1984) and late 70s/early 80s. The aging process is really brutal when you get to and beyond that sort of stage. Some people bear up remarkably well, but they are fairly rare - the attrition rate is very high and the physical and mental decline is often very visible to those nearby.It's no longer steady, later life decline - it gets precipitous in many cases.
Indeed, Reagan probably had early stage Alzheimers by the time he left office in 1988 (at the same age Trump is now). It wasn't an issue in 1984, but he declined really sharply right at the end of his time in office and soon after it.
I suspect a reason for Biden's initial stubbornness was that the very same people who urged him to give way to Hillary in 2016 were the very same people who have been urging him to stand down now. No wonder his instinct was to raise two fingers.
If he had stood in 2016, he would have won, and the whole Trump nightmare would never have occurred.
Indeed, Democratic elites still don't understand that what wins in NYC, California and DC is not always what wins in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Ohio. Only after defeat in 2016 for Hillary did they reluctantly agree to back Biden who they felt not intellectually up to the job of POTUS and not really part of their culturally liberal crowd, now he has been forced out with Harris they again have one of their own as nominee.
It is no surprise that the most successful Democratic candidates tend to be southerners or from a rustbelt state like Texas raised LBJ, Georgia raised Carter, Arkansas raised Clinton or Scranton raised Biden rather than the coasts. Even Obama grew up in Kansas and worked in Illinois not NYC, DC, Boston or San Francisco.
The last truly liberal elite coastal Dem to win the Presidency was JFK, born and raised in Massachusetts but even he needed LBJ on his ticket to carry Texas and ensure he beat Nixon in a close race in 1960
Have you, out of interest, spent a lot of time in the US?
I have been to rural Pennsylvania and California and NYC and DC
Even my dog has been to twenty five US states, and in my longer lifetime I’ve managed a few more than him
That’s an awesome picture!
Where, can be this afternoon's quiz question.
Your clues:
- it's a film set rather than a real historical location - it was the set for a pivotal scene in a renowned American film, which was directed by its lead actor.
Full marks for the scene, film and actor; honourable mentions for either or both of the latter?
Without googling, is it Dances With Wolves/Kevin Costner?
If you’re head of the Secret Service, you literally have one job to do*
*yes, I know they do other things like counterfeit banknotes and postage.
We can't put agents on roofs with slopes....
Except at least one of the SS sniper posts which was on…a sloping roof. Perhaps it was an angle thing.
And given that was her excuse, why she had to go, couldn't even come up with a credible lie. The roof the shooter was on was less steep than where the counter-snipers were located.
Only question now is where does Kimberley Cheatle fail upwards to next.
The poll was in the aftermath of the GOP convention and before the Biden announcement.
What have OGH and I told you about hypothetical polls.
Generally they are accurate
Nope.
I’ve been pointing out for years the flaw with hypothetical polling, in 2019 I wrote ‘Hypothetical polls are a lot like Hawaiian pizzas, they should be avoided at all costs by right thinking people everywhere‘ from 2019 here’s why.
Nope, they were right Major would beat Kinnock in 1990 and Thatcher wouldn't and they were right Boris would beat Corbyn in 2019.
A muppet would have beaten Corbyn in 2019. Oh, hang on..................
May didn't in 2017, nor would Hunt have won the redwall in 2019 either
I didn't say 2017 and Jeremy Hunt would most likely have beaten Mr Thicky. The disaster that then followed for the Tories under that complete muppet Johnson that only the insanely stupid still admire would not have happened. Did Bozo give you a BJ once or something? There must be some reason for it?
He wouldn't, the redwall seats only went for Boris in 2019 to get Brexit done, they would not have voted for Remainer Hunt
I have a lot of time for your analysis. However although Johnson won in 2019, on the balance of probability, not least his behaviour, he would have been/ would be spanked in GE2024/5. He is also exactly what the Tories don't need to climb back to electoral relevance.
Instinctively you may be right that Trump will win, but I doubt it will be the shoo-in you suggest. I am surprised you keep using unsafe data when if you hang on for a couple of weeks or so you will have a clearer idea of how things might shake down.
The Conservatives would have won over 200 seats and got over 30% of the vote had Boris remained leader and Reform would not have got more than 10% like they did. Even if Starmer had still won
You cannot confirm that with any surity.
Johnson might have done better in the RedWall, but the Conservatives might have done even worse in their BlueWall. There was a visceral hatred of the Conservative Party and that disdain would have been focused more directly on Johnson had he returned after Truss.
Apart from Hunt's the Tories lost all the Remain seats they were going to lose in the Bluewall this month anyway, Johnson would probably have saved 100 Leave marginal seats though.
Johnson staying also would have meant no Truss Kwarteng budget and interest rates surge
"Johnson staying" would have split the Conservatives asunder. The nation's voters pictured Johnson partying like it's 1999 whilst the Queen mourned Phil the Greek alone in her chapel. The nation despised Johnson, and they still do.
No, correction left liberals and Remainers despised Johnson, most Leavers couldn't care less about his drinks in the No 10 garden.
What split the Tories asunder was the votes lost to Labour and Reform after he was removed
Keep believing that, and the Tories will be the third party in the next Parliament.
It is true. Tories and Reform combined were 38% on 4th July which would have been the first party in Parliament ahead of Labour on 33%, not even second let alone third with the LDs on just 12%.
It was Boris who united the Tory and BXP/Reform vote in 2019
You can’t just add Tory and Reform together and present that as what you’d get in an election if there was an alliance .
HYUFD can. And frequently does.
The polling evidence is most Tories would vote Reform over Labour and most Reform voters would vote Tory over Labour or the LDs.
2024 Tories are admittedly split about even whether they would vote Reform over LD or LD over Reform but there are far more Tory v Labour marginals than Tory v LD
But you were counting ALL Tory voters and ALL Labour voters when getting a hypothetical B. Johnson over the electoral hedge in a hypothetical electoral Derby.
*Did* you do maths O level at your posh grammar school?
The numbers I gave would certainly have been enough to get Johnson over 30% and 200 seats as I originally said.
The poll was in the aftermath of the GOP convention and before the Biden announcement.
What have OGH and I told you about hypothetical polls.
Generally they are accurate
Nope.
I’ve been pointing out for years the flaw with hypothetical polling, in 2019 I wrote ‘Hypothetical polls are a lot like Hawaiian pizzas, they should be avoided at all costs by right thinking people everywhere‘ from 2019 here’s why.
Nope, they were right Major would beat Kinnock in 1990 and Thatcher wouldn't and they were right Boris would beat Corbyn in 2019.
A muppet would have beaten Corbyn in 2019. Oh, hang on..................
May didn't in 2017, nor would Hunt have won the redwall in 2019 either
I didn't say 2017 and Jeremy Hunt would most likely have beaten Mr Thicky. The disaster that then followed for the Tories under that complete muppet Johnson that only the insanely stupid still admire would not have happened. Did Bozo give you a BJ once or something? There must be some reason for it?
He wouldn't, the redwall seats only went for Boris in 2019 to get Brexit done, they would not have voted for Remainer Hunt
I have a lot of time for your analysis. However although Johnson won in 2019, on the balance of probability, not least his behaviour, he would have been/ would be spanked in GE2024/5. He is also exactly what the Tories don't need to climb back to electoral relevance.
Instinctively you may be right that Trump will win, but I doubt it will be the shoo-in you suggest. I am surprised you keep using unsafe data when if you hang on for a couple of weeks or so you will have a clearer idea of how things might shake down.
The Conservatives would have won over 200 seats and got over 30% of the vote had Boris remained leader and Reform would not have got more than 10% like they did. Even if Starmer had still won
You cannot confirm that with any surity.
Johnson might have done better in the RedWall, but the Conservatives might have done even worse in their BlueWall. There was a visceral hatred of the Conservative Party and that disdain would have been focused more directly on Johnson had he returned after Truss.
Apart from Hunt's the Tories lost all the Remain seats they were going to lose in the Bluewall this month anyway, Johnson would probably have saved 100 Leave marginal seats though.
Johnson staying also would have meant no Truss Kwarteng budget and interest rates surge
"Johnson staying" would have split the Conservatives asunder. The nation's voters pictured Johnson partying like it's 1999 whilst the Queen mourned Phil the Greek alone in her chapel. The nation despised Johnson, and they still do.
No, correction left liberals and Remainers despised Johnson, most Leavers couldn't care less about his drinks in the No 10 garden.
What split the Tories asunder was the votes lost to Labour and Reform after he was removed
Keep believing that, and the Tories will be the third party in the next Parliament.
It is true. Tories and Reform combined were 38% on 4th July which would have been the first party in Parliament ahead of Labour on 33%, not even second let alone third with the LDs on just 12%.
It was Boris who united the Tory and BXP/Reform vote in 2019
You can’t just add Tory and Reform together and present that as what you’d get in an election if there was an alliance .
HYUFD can. And frequently does.
The polling evidence is most Tories would vote Reform over Labour and most Reform voters would vote Tory over Labour or the LDs.
2024 Tories are admittedly split about even whether they would vote Reform over LD or LD over Reform but there are far more Tory v Labour marginals than Tory v LD
Not three weeks ago, it wasn't. Cf. West Dorset and Rotherham.
Twitter has been pretty quick to delete stuff, as have a lot of embarrased independent journalists who rely too much on Twitter because they don’t have access to the mainstream official communications channels that might report these things.
If nothing else, it’s an example of how screwed-up things are going to be for the next four months in US politics.
And one rather embarrassed independent PB poster, I gather.
Ha yeah.
Here’s the actual letter from the source. It’s obviously bollocks if you read more than the first paragraph, but the key is the website link which was actually working.
In fairness to Trump, he isn't an 80 year old candidate (although he will turn 80 in office if elected).
My view is Trump remains relatively narrow favourite. So a decent chance Haley will be proved right, and Democrats have improved their chances by ditching Biden, but on balance I think Trump will get over the line (sadly).
I agree, for Harris to win she needs everything to turn out perfectly whereas Trump can get away with not having a perfect night and winning.
By the start of September we need to see some polls showing Harris winning the popular vote.
I disagree. Harris doesn't need everything to be 'perfect'; it's closer than that. But yes, the polls need to show a marked improvement within the next couple of weeks.
This was an interesting snap poll.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4787602-kamala-harris-most-democrats-support-nomination-survey/ A CBS News/YouGov Poll, released Monday, found 79 percent of Democrats support the party nominating Harris to top the 2024 ticket, while 21 percent said someone else should be nominated. The poll, taken just after Biden announced he would withdraw from the race following weeks of calls from some Democrats to step aside over concerns about his stamina to serve another four years or beat former President Trump in November. Biden later endorsed Harris to run in his place and many on the left rapidly united around her candidacy. Harris crossed the threshold to secure the Democratic presidential nomination, receiving over 1,968 delegate endorsements less than two days after Biden dropped out of the race. Roughly 83 percent of Democratic voters said they approved of Biden’s withdrawal from the race, while just 17 percent disapproved, per the survey. About 45 percent of party voters said their chances of defeating Trump are “better” without Biden in the race, while 10 percent said their chances are “worse,” the poll found. Another 17 percent said the chances were not changed and 28 percent said it depends on the nominee. The survey also suggested that Biden’s decision to step aside may prompt more voters to head to the polls this November, with 39 percent of Democrats stating they are more motivated to vote now that the president is out of the race. About 49 percent said it did not change their motivation and 6 percent said it made them less motivated. The CBS News/YouGov poll was conducted July 21-22 among 1,071 registered voters who identify as Democrats. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points...
Certainly feels right, from my own perspective as an actual Democratic voter who is "coastal" (thank God for sea breeze on hot summer days!) but NOT exactly what you'd call "elite".
Yesterday reminded me strongly of the classic film "The African Queen".
In the movie, with Humphrey Bogart at the engine and Katherine Hepburn on the tiller, the old battered boat survives enemy gunfire and runs raging rapids, as Charlie & Rosie (Bogie & Kate) endure hordes of mosquitos, effect repairs heedless (sorta) of blood-sucking leeches, and end up hauling the AQ through tangles swamp until they find themselves stuck in the muck.
THEN the rains come . . . and slowly but surely float the boat and it's plucky but hitherto hapless crew out of the mud and out to open water . . . to face the might of a brutal, relentless foe . . .
YESTERDAY yours truly watched the clouds parting and the water rising higher, hour by hour, re-floating the Good Ship Democrat and bringing new hope to Democratic politicos, pundits, candidate, activists and above all voters. From California to the New York island, from the redwood forests to the Gulf Stream waters, from Dutch Harbor to Key West.
And NOT just the Presidential Barge. The rising tide of Democratic morale, the gnashing of teeth by the MAGA-maniacs, the increased flood of new campaign money, volunteer enthusiasm and above all HOPE for the future is likely to float a LOT of boats big, middling and small, up and down the ballot.
Under Biden, the Democrats were on the Titanic a few minutes past midnight on the 15th April 1912. They were sinking, and it was only going to get worse. They just did not know that yet.
Under Harris, the Democrats are sailing to Malta on the SS Ohio in August 1942. Will they make it to Grand Harbour and save the day, despite the efforts of the Republicans?
Kayaking down the Gorge du Tarn on a cloudless summer day
Fucking sublime
Reminds me of a group "study tour of the Midi" I did in 1964 with AIESEC students, when my coach companion was Peter Lilley. His sister was the interpreter for monoglots. Have you done the red cathedral at Albi yet (I believe it has some "noom" as you call it) ?
I have indeed done albi. And oui, je trouve un peu du noom
The poll was in the aftermath of the GOP convention and before the Biden announcement.
What have OGH and I told you about hypothetical polls.
Generally they are accurate
Nope.
I’ve been pointing out for years the flaw with hypothetical polling, in 2019 I wrote ‘Hypothetical polls are a lot like Hawaiian pizzas, they should be avoided at all costs by right thinking people everywhere‘ from 2019 here’s why.
Nope, they were right Major would beat Kinnock in 1990 and Thatcher wouldn't and they were right Boris would beat Corbyn in 2019.
A muppet would have beaten Corbyn in 2019. Oh, hang on..................
May didn't in 2017, nor would Hunt have won the redwall in 2019 either
I didn't say 2017 and Jeremy Hunt would most likely have beaten Mr Thicky. The disaster that then followed for the Tories under that complete muppet Johnson that only the insanely stupid still admire would not have happened. Did Bozo give you a BJ once or something? There must be some reason for it?
He wouldn't, the redwall seats only went for Boris in 2019 to get Brexit done, they would not have voted for Remainer Hunt
I have a lot of time for your analysis. However although Johnson won in 2019, on the balance of probability, not least his behaviour, he would have been/ would be spanked in GE2024/5. He is also exactly what the Tories don't need to climb back to electoral relevance.
Instinctively you may be right that Trump will win, but I doubt it will be the shoo-in you suggest. I am surprised you keep using unsafe data when if you hang on for a couple of weeks or so you will have a clearer idea of how things might shake down.
The Conservatives would have won over 200 seats and got over 30% of the vote had Boris remained leader and Reform would not have got more than 10% like they did. Even if Starmer had still won
You cannot confirm that with any surity.
Johnson might have done better in the RedWall, but the Conservatives might have done even worse in their BlueWall. There was a visceral hatred of the Conservative Party and that disdain would have been focused more directly on Johnson had he returned after Truss.
Apart from Hunt's the Tories lost all the Remain seats they were going to lose in the Bluewall this month anyway, Johnson would probably have saved 100 Leave marginal seats though.
Johnson staying also would have meant no Truss Kwarteng budget and interest rates surge
"Johnson staying" would have split the Conservatives asunder. The nation's voters pictured Johnson partying like it's 1999 whilst the Queen mourned Phil the Greek alone in her chapel. The nation despised Johnson, and they still do.
No, correction left liberals and Remainers despised Johnson, most Leavers couldn't care less about his drinks in the No 10 garden.
What split the Tories asunder was the votes lost to Labour and Reform after he was removed
Keep believing that, and the Tories will be the third party in the next Parliament.
It is true. Tories and Reform combined were 38% on 4th July which would have been the first party in Parliament ahead of Labour on 33%, not even second let alone third with the LDs on just 12%.
It was Boris who united the Tory and BXP/Reform vote in 2019
You can’t just add Tory and Reform together and present that as what you’d get in an election if there was an alliance .
HYUFD can. And frequently does.
The polling evidence is most Tories would vote Reform over Labour and most Reform voters would vote Tory over Labour or the LDs.
2024 Tories are admittedly split about even whether they would vote Reform over LD or LD over Reform but there are far more Tory v Labour marginals than Tory v LD
But you were counting ALL Tory voters and ALL Labour voters when getting a hypothetical B. Johnson over the electoral hedge in a hypothetical electoral Derby.
*Did* you do maths O level at your posh grammar school?
The numbers I gave would certainly have been enough to get Johnson over 30% and 200 seats as I originally said.
I went to public school not grammar school
But your numbers were based on adding all of them together. What they might or might not do is irrelevant to the unsoundness of that basic addition.
The poll was in the aftermath of the GOP convention and before the Biden announcement.
What have OGH and I told you about hypothetical polls.
Generally they are accurate
Nope.
I’ve been pointing out for years the flaw with hypothetical polling, in 2019 I wrote ‘Hypothetical polls are a lot like Hawaiian pizzas, they should be avoided at all costs by right thinking people everywhere‘ from 2019 here’s why.
Nope, they were right Major would beat Kinnock in 1990 and Thatcher wouldn't and they were right Boris would beat Corbyn in 2019.
A muppet would have beaten Corbyn in 2019. Oh, hang on..................
May didn't in 2017, nor would Hunt have won the redwall in 2019 either
I didn't say 2017 and Jeremy Hunt would most likely have beaten Mr Thicky. The disaster that then followed for the Tories under that complete muppet Johnson that only the insanely stupid still admire would not have happened. Did Bozo give you a BJ once or something? There must be some reason for it?
He wouldn't, the redwall seats only went for Boris in 2019 to get Brexit done, they would not have voted for Remainer Hunt
I have a lot of time for your analysis. However although Johnson won in 2019, on the balance of probability, not least his behaviour, he would have been/ would be spanked in GE2024/5. He is also exactly what the Tories don't need to climb back to electoral relevance.
Instinctively you may be right that Trump will win, but I doubt it will be the shoo-in you suggest. I am surprised you keep using unsafe data when if you hang on for a couple of weeks or so you will have a clearer idea of how things might shake down.
The Conservatives would have won over 200 seats and got over 30% of the vote had Boris remained leader and Reform would not have got more than 10% like they did. Even if Starmer had still won
You cannot confirm that with any surity.
Johnson might have done better in the RedWall, but the Conservatives might have done even worse in their BlueWall. There was a visceral hatred of the Conservative Party and that disdain would have been focused more directly on Johnson had he returned after Truss.
Apart from Hunt's the Tories lost all the Remain seats they were going to lose in the Bluewall this month anyway, Johnson would probably have saved 100 Leave marginal seats though.
Johnson staying also would have meant no Truss Kwarteng budget and interest rates surge
"Johnson staying" would have split the Conservatives asunder. The nation's voters pictured Johnson partying like it's 1999 whilst the Queen mourned Phil the Greek alone in her chapel. The nation despised Johnson, and they still do.
No, correction left liberals and Remainers despised Johnson, most Leavers couldn't care less about his drinks in the No 10 garden.
What split the Tories asunder was the votes lost to Labour and Reform after he was removed
Keep believing that, and the Tories will be the third party in the next Parliament.
It is true. Tories and Reform combined were 38% on 4th July which would have been the first party in Parliament ahead of Labour on 33%, not even second let alone third with the LDs on just 12%.
It was Boris who united the Tory and BXP/Reform vote in 2019
You can’t just add Tory and Reform together and present that as what you’d get in an election if there was an alliance .
HYUFD can. And frequently does.
The polling evidence is most Tories would vote Reform over Labour and most Reform voters would vote Tory over Labour or the LDs.
2024 Tories are admittedly split about even whether they would vote Reform over LD or LD over Reform but there are far more Tory v Labour marginals than Tory v LD
Not three weeks ago, it wasn't. Cf. West Dorset and Rotherham.
Yougov found in a post GE poll that 75% of 2024 Reform voters would vote Conservative over Labour. 70% of Reform voters would also vote Conservative over the LDs.
66% of 2024 Conservative voters would vote Reform over Labour. Albeit only 49% of 2024 Tory voters would vote Reform over LD.
AP updated survey of DNC delegate now 73% complete, with Harris = 2.868 compared with Undecided = 49.
Note that Harris supporters keep going up, while Undecided keeps going DOWN.
Currently Harris has support of 98.4% of all delegates surveyed so far.
Regional breakdown:
East = 700 Harris (98.2% of surveyed) with 21.5% of delegates as yet unsurveyed Midwest = 541 Harris (97.0%) with 32.1% unsurveyed South = 1,091 Harris (99.1%) with 7.4% unsurveyed West = 517 Harris (95.9% with 47.3% unsurveyed Offshore = 15 (93.8%) with 83.0% unsurveyed
Reporting 0 delegates surveyed so far = Alabama, Delaware, DC, Idaho, Washington, American Samoa, Democrats Abroad, Northern Marianas
His party has five seats in the Commons. He can shout and whinge to his heart's content - he has five seats. He is an irrelevance and wer eit for not for people like you and the Daily Reform (sorry, Express) he would become an irrelevance.
If he manages to tear the Conservative Party apart, it will be because you have given him the oxygen of publicity. Ignore him and he'll be no threat to your party.
No discussion of the fact the might Hundred is starting today....
The responses to the tweets from Sky are scathing.
Sky? So it’s not even on free TV any more?
I don't watch the T20 Blast, but apparently, Sky's commentators were moaning about the schedule of that and didn't one mention the reason: The Hundred. As with the farce at the end of the 2021 F1 season, Sky won't call out the nonsense when they are trying to make money out of it. They only allowed Neville and Carragher to kick off about the Super League because they were worried they might not win the rights to it.
No discussion of the fact the might Hundred is starting today....
Is it called that, because a hundred people care about the tournament?
Apparently the ECB want to change it to Twenty20 format while still calling it 'The Hundred'. Is the ECB a veritable hothouse for very stupid ideas?
Did the ECB people run the Tories GE campaign?
They were told when they started that Hundred was stupid because everybody else plays T20. It costs the ECB money to subsidise the cost of the Hundred, so they need to sell it to investors, who have said, well its needs to be T20 (especially the Indians who want T20 global league). Also, lots of the top players are not coming to the Hundred now because the likes of MLC pay better and errh play T20.
And that is before we got to the mess of franchises that have pissed of the counties and then how they spread about the top talent, so players famously Yaaarrrrrrrkkkshire aren't playing for the franchise that is based in that part of the world.
Half a million households cancelled their licence fee last year as the BBC struggled to connect with younger audiences drifting away to Netflix and YouTube.
The stark extent of the BBC’s challenges are set out in the corporation’s annual report, which shows the total number of British households paying the £169.50 licence fee fell to 23.9 million, suggesting a growing number of people feel able to go without BBC services.
When does Labour just add the TV tax to council tax?
It’s the most regressive tax of all, results in tens of thousands of mostly single mothers getting criminal convictions every year, and is going to end up going away anyway as the media landscape changes. There’s a huge opportunity for the new government to do the job properly and scrap the licence fee.
I love the BBC and want it to thrive so I agree. I think it's a good opportunity for a government which doesn't ideologically hate the Beeb to do a fair minded review of the future funding model.
Half a million households cancelled their licence fee last year as the BBC struggled to connect with younger audiences drifting away to Netflix and YouTube.
The stark extent of the BBC’s challenges are set out in the corporation’s annual report, which shows the total number of British households paying the £169.50 licence fee fell to 23.9 million, suggesting a growing number of people feel able to go without BBC services.
When does Labour just add the TV tax to council tax?
It’s the most regressive tax of all, results in tens of thousands of mostly single mothers getting criminal convictions every year, and is going to end up going away anyway as the media landscape changes. There’s a huge opportunity for the new government to do the job properly and scrap the licence fee.
There is, but I’m afraid that isn’t going to happen under Labour.
Indeed. It’s such a weird hill for them to die on given the demographics of those most affected, people who they would otherwise describe as some of the poorest and most vulnerable in society.
Perhaps the perfect example of the disconnect between the different classes of Labour voter?
No, anymore than Mondale in his 50s failed to beat Reagan in his seventies in 1984
Reagan had that rather good joke in one of the debates that some people were trying to make age into an election issue, but that he promised not to hold his opponent's youth and inexperience against him.
I think, as Democrats found with Biden, there is a real difference between early 70s (as Reagan was in 1984) and late 70s/early 80s. The aging process is really brutal when you get to and beyond that sort of stage. Some people bear up remarkably well, but they are fairly rare - the attrition rate is very high and the physical and mental decline is often very visible to those nearby.It's no longer steady, later life decline - it gets precipitous in many cases.
Indeed, Reagan probably had early stage Alzheimers by the time he left office in 1988 (at the same age Trump is now). It wasn't an issue in 1984, but he declined really sharply right at the end of his time in office and soon after it.
I suspect a reason for Biden's initial stubbornness was that the very same people who urged him to give way to Hillary in 2016 were the very same people who have been urging him to stand down now. No wonder his instinct was to raise two fingers.
If he had stood in 2016, he would have won, and the whole Trump nightmare would never have occurred.
Indeed, Democratic elites still don't understand that what wins in NYC, California and DC is not always what wins in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Ohio. Only after defeat in 2016 for Hillary did they reluctantly agree to back Biden who they felt not intellectually up to the job of POTUS and not really part of their culturally liberal crowd, now he has been forced out with Harris they again have one of their own as nominee.
It is no surprise that the most successful Democratic candidates tend to be southerners or from a rustbelt state like Texas raised LBJ, Georgia raised Carter, Arkansas raised Clinton or Scranton raised Biden rather than the coasts. Even Obama grew up in Kansas and worked in Illinois not NYC, DC, Boston or San Francisco.
The last truly liberal elite coastal Dem to win the Presidency was JFK, born and raised in Massachusetts but even he needed LBJ on his ticket to carry Texas and ensure he beat Nixon in a close race in 1960
Have you, out of interest, spent a lot of time in the US?
I have been to rural Pennsylvania and California and NYC and DC
Even my dog has been to twenty five US states, and in my longer lifetime I’ve managed a few more than him
That’s an awesome picture!
Where, can be this afternoon's quiz question.
Your clues:
- it's a film set rather than a real historical location - it was the set for a pivotal scene in a renowned American film, which was directed by its lead actor.
Full marks for the scene, film and actor; honourable mentions for either or both of the latter?
Without googling, is it Dances With Wolves/Kevin Costner?
Top of the class for the honourable mention.
I was thinking. I noted the period lamp on the desk and the cavalry hat on the stand. I couldn't count the stars on the flag but it didn't look like 50. A still-standing film set meant recent, and only Eastwood and Costner are still doing historical cowboy movies (shuttup Bone Tomahawk), so i plumped for KC. Lucky guess 😃
The poll was in the aftermath of the GOP convention and before the Biden announcement.
What have OGH and I told you about hypothetical polls.
Generally they are accurate
Nope.
I’ve been pointing out for years the flaw with hypothetical polling, in 2019 I wrote ‘Hypothetical polls are a lot like Hawaiian pizzas, they should be avoided at all costs by right thinking people everywhere‘ from 2019 here’s why.
Nope, they were right Major would beat Kinnock in 1990 and Thatcher wouldn't and they were right Boris would beat Corbyn in 2019.
A muppet would have beaten Corbyn in 2019. Oh, hang on..................
May didn't in 2017, nor would Hunt have won the redwall in 2019 either
I didn't say 2017 and Jeremy Hunt would most likely have beaten Mr Thicky. The disaster that then followed for the Tories under that complete muppet Johnson that only the insanely stupid still admire would not have happened. Did Bozo give you a BJ once or something? There must be some reason for it?
He wouldn't, the redwall seats only went for Boris in 2019 to get Brexit done, they would not have voted for Remainer Hunt
I have a lot of time for your analysis. However although Johnson won in 2019, on the balance of probability, not least his behaviour, he would have been/ would be spanked in GE2024/5. He is also exactly what the Tories don't need to climb back to electoral relevance.
Instinctively you may be right that Trump will win, but I doubt it will be the shoo-in you suggest. I am surprised you keep using unsafe data when if you hang on for a couple of weeks or so you will have a clearer idea of how things might shake down.
The Conservatives would have won over 200 seats and got over 30% of the vote had Boris remained leader and Reform would not have got more than 10% like they did. Even if Starmer had still won
You cannot confirm that with any surity.
Johnson might have done better in the RedWall, but the Conservatives might have done even worse in their BlueWall. There was a visceral hatred of the Conservative Party and that disdain would have been focused more directly on Johnson had he returned after Truss.
Apart from Hunt's the Tories lost all the Remain seats they were going to lose in the Bluewall this month anyway, Johnson would probably have saved 100 Leave marginal seats though.
Johnson staying also would have meant no Truss Kwarteng budget and interest rates surge
"Johnson staying" would have split the Conservatives asunder. The nation's voters pictured Johnson partying like it's 1999 whilst the Queen mourned Phil the Greek alone in her chapel. The nation despised Johnson, and they still do.
No, correction left liberals and Remainers despised Johnson, most Leavers couldn't care less about his drinks in the No 10 garden.
What split the Tories asunder was the votes lost to Labour and Reform after he was removed
Keep believing that, and the Tories will be the third party in the next Parliament.
It is true. Tories and Reform combined were 38% on 4th July which would have been the first party in Parliament ahead of Labour on 33%, not even second let alone third with the LDs on just 12%.
It was Boris who united the Tory and BXP/Reform vote in 2019
You can’t just add Tory and Reform together and present that as what you’d get in an election if there was an alliance .
HYUFD can. And frequently does.
The polling evidence is most Tories would vote Reform over Labour and most Reform voters would vote Tory over Labour or the LDs.
2024 Tories are admittedly split about even whether they would vote Reform over LD or LD over Reform but there are far more Tory v Labour marginals than Tory v LD
But you were counting ALL Tory voters and ALL Labour voters when getting a hypothetical B. Johnson over the electoral hedge in a hypothetical electoral Derby.
*Did* you do maths O level at your posh grammar school?
The numbers I gave would certainly have been enough to get Johnson over 30% and 200 seats as I originally said.
I went to public school not grammar school
I went to grammar school and at least know when integrity matters unlike some Johnson supporters
No discussion of the fact the might Hundred is starting today....
The responses to the tweets from Sky are scathing.
Sky? So it’s not even on free TV any more?
I don't watch the T20 Blast, but apparently, Sky's commentators were moaning about the schedule of that and didn't one mention the reason: The Hundred. As with the farce at the end of the 2021 F1 season, Sky won't call out the nonsense when they are trying to make money out of it. They only allowed Neville and Carragher to kick off about the Super League because they were worried they might not win the rights to it.
You can't really have the T20 Blast and the Hundred...and 50 over ODI competition. Its a total mess.
They need one competition, make it massive, pay for the big players, play it Friday / Sat nights.
His party has five seats in the Commons. He can shout and whinge to his heart's content - he has five seats. He is an irrelevance and wer eit for not for people like you and the Daily Reform (sorry, Express) he would become an irrelevance.
Agree, but don't forget at the 2015 election the Lib-Dems went down to just 8 seats and now they are on 72 so you never know what the future holds...
No discussion of the fact the might Hundred is starting today....
The responses to the tweets from Sky are scathing.
Sky? So it’s not even on free TV any more?
I don't watch the T20 Blast, but apparently, Sky's commentators were moaning about the schedule of that and didn't one mention the reason: The Hundred. As with the farce at the end of the 2021 F1 season, Sky won't call out the nonsense when they are trying to make money out of it. They only allowed Neville and Carragher to kick off about the Super League because they were worried they might not win the rights to it.
You can't really have the T20 Blast and the Hundred...and 50 over ODI competition. Its a total mess.
They need one competition, make it massive, pay for the big players, play it Friday / Sat nights.
The poll was in the aftermath of the GOP convention and before the Biden announcement.
What have OGH and I told you about hypothetical polls.
Generally they are accurate
Nope.
I’ve been pointing out for years the flaw with hypothetical polling, in 2019 I wrote ‘Hypothetical polls are a lot like Hawaiian pizzas, they should be avoided at all costs by right thinking people everywhere‘ from 2019 here’s why.
Nope, they were right Major would beat Kinnock in 1990 and Thatcher wouldn't and they were right Boris would beat Corbyn in 2019.
A muppet would have beaten Corbyn in 2019. Oh, hang on..................
May didn't in 2017, nor would Hunt have won the redwall in 2019 either
I didn't say 2017 and Jeremy Hunt would most likely have beaten Mr Thicky. The disaster that then followed for the Tories under that complete muppet Johnson that only the insanely stupid still admire would not have happened. Did Bozo give you a BJ once or something? There must be some reason for it?
He wouldn't, the redwall seats only went for Boris in 2019 to get Brexit done, they would not have voted for Remainer Hunt
I have a lot of time for your analysis. However although Johnson won in 2019, on the balance of probability, not least his behaviour, he would have been/ would be spanked in GE2024/5. He is also exactly what the Tories don't need to climb back to electoral relevance.
Instinctively you may be right that Trump will win, but I doubt it will be the shoo-in you suggest. I am surprised you keep using unsafe data when if you hang on for a couple of weeks or so you will have a clearer idea of how things might shake down.
The Conservatives would have won over 200 seats and got over 30% of the vote had Boris remained leader and Reform would not have got more than 10% like they did. Even if Starmer had still won
You cannot confirm that with any surity.
Johnson might have done better in the RedWall, but the Conservatives might have done even worse in their BlueWall. There was a visceral hatred of the Conservative Party and that disdain would have been focused more directly on Johnson had he returned after Truss.
Apart from Hunt's the Tories lost all the Remain seats they were going to lose in the Bluewall this month anyway, Johnson would probably have saved 100 Leave marginal seats though.
Johnson staying also would have meant no Truss Kwarteng budget and interest rates surge
"Johnson staying" would have split the Conservatives asunder. The nation's voters pictured Johnson partying like it's 1999 whilst the Queen mourned Phil the Greek alone in her chapel. The nation despised Johnson, and they still do.
No, correction left liberals and Remainers despised Johnson, most Leavers couldn't care less about his drinks in the No 10 garden.
What split the Tories asunder was the votes lost to Labour and Reform after he was removed
Keep believing that, and the Tories will be the third party in the next Parliament.
It is true. Tories and Reform combined were 38% on 4th July which would have been the first party in Parliament ahead of Labour on 33%, not even second let alone third with the LDs on just 12%.
It was Boris who united the Tory and BXP/Reform vote in 2019
You can’t just add Tory and Reform together and present that as what you’d get in an election if there was an alliance .
HYUFD can. And frequently does.
The polling evidence is most Tories would vote Reform over Labour and most Reform voters would vote Tory over Labour or the LDs.
2024 Tories are admittedly split about even whether they would vote Reform over LD or LD over Reform but there are far more Tory v Labour marginals than Tory v LD
Not three weeks ago, it wasn't. Cf. West Dorset and Rotherham.
Yougov found in a post GE poll that 75% of 2024 Reform voters would vote Conservative over Labour. 70% of Reform voters would also vote Conservative over the LDs.
66% of 2024 Conservative voters would vote Reform over Labour. Albeit only 49% of 2024 Tory voters would vote Reform over LD.
The Tory voteshare declined by less than the national average in W Dorset and the Reform vote was well above average in Rotherham
So given that 51% of 2024 Tory voters prefer the LDs to Reform, and 34% prefer Labour to Reform, that suggests that should the Conservatives merge with Reform, you would be in danger of losing more than half of the pitiful 24% of vote share that the Conservatives managed in 2024.
It is absurdly idyllic. Enough rapids to make it exciting but then long calm stretches where the sun dapples on the cool green water and the kingfishers dip in dazzlement and jewel blue dragonflies alight on your paddle
And all the way down there are French families sitting in chairs in the water. Their teen daughters laughing and swimming with their boyfriends. Kids zip wire overhead and say Bonjour! Picnics on the pebbled river beaches. Flasks of cold wine and wheels of melting cheese and beers chilled in the backwaters
Like a Gallic Eden. Almost no foreign tourists
Almost no foreign tourists?
I've kayaked the Ardeche many times. It gets very busy this time of year.
How does the Verdon compare to the Ardeche area in general?
No discussion of the fact the might Hundred is starting today....
The responses to the tweets from Sky are scathing.
Sky? So it’s not even on free TV any more?
I don't watch the T20 Blast, but apparently, Sky's commentators were moaning about the schedule of that and didn't one mention the reason: The Hundred. As with the farce at the end of the 2021 F1 season, Sky won't call out the nonsense when they are trying to make money out of it. They only allowed Neville and Carragher to kick off about the Super League because they were worried they might not win the rights to it.
You can't really have the T20 Blast and the Hundred...and 50 over ODI competition. Its a total mess.
They need one competition, make it massive, pay for the big players, play it Friday / Sat nights.
Well you can
I just dont watch the 100
I don't know how they are doing on ticket sales these days. The first year was COVID, so everybody was just pleased to be allowed to go out to something. I think initially they did well attracting families / kids, but I don't know now. I personally won't be going, the overly kiddie focus isn't for me and the quality of the players is way down this year.
Twitter has been pretty quick to delete stuff, as have a lot of embarrased independent journalists who rely too much on Twitter because they don’t have access to the mainstream official communications channels that might report these things.
If nothing else, it’s an example of how screwed-up things are going to be for the next four months in US politics.
And one rather embarrassed independent PB poster, I gather.
Ha yeah.
Here’s the actual letter from the source. It’s obviously bollocks if you read more than the first paragraph, but the key is the website link which was actually working.
One early example of the total news media sh1t-show that’s coming in the US this autumn.
First thing I did when I saw your post, was google to see IF any other "news" source was reporting sad (non) demise of Jimmy Carter. Which none was.
Did he same thing when TSE posted news of Joe Biden withrawl from POTUS race. Which WAS being reported.
Coincidentally, NYT story says that close Biden ally US Sen. Chris Coons (D-Delaware) was at a security form where panel was discussing fake news; when they saw first report re: Biden, they all wondered IF was an example! Sen. Coons immediately called . . . wait for it . . . Joe Biden, who confirmed that it was true.
Comments
While I'm disappointed that NH ended up, not only folding her tent but endorsing DJT, that was a shrewd move for someone who wants to have a future in the GOP post-2024.
Haley made no bones about her disagreement with the Trump-MAGA perversion of the once Grand Old Party. BUT at same time signed the traditional Republican loyalty oath on the dotted line. Somewhat in the same spirit as some of the newly elected/reelected Celtic nationalist MPs did recently at Westminster.
If the motivation was concern for animal welfare why not pass it on immediately to the authorities so she couldn’t be at risk of repeating over the next four years or maybe some fuck thought they would maximise a payout from a paper or had a personal feud. People are such arseholes.
Telling!
Wish casting again unfortunately
Boris derangement syndrome alive and well in parts of the conservative party
‘Let’s be clear about Beckham. He likes pineapple on his pizza. He can’t get enough of “The Lion King”. He admits that he has never read a book in his life, almost certainly including the ones he wrote himself.’
Your clues:
- it's a film set rather than a real historical location
- it was the set for a pivotal scene in a renowned American film, which was directed by its lead actor.
Full marks for the scene, film and actor; honourable mentions for either or both of the latter?
(I have made the same mistake in the past...)
https://x.com/potus/status/1815766423056080912
And they choose a rather unflattering photo (oh and they've now changed). Odd.
There wouldn't be many comments here but for wish casting
https://www.theguardian.com/media/article/2024/jul/23/half-million-households-cancelled-bbc-licence-fee-last-year
Half a million households cancelled their licence fee last year as the BBC struggled to connect with younger audiences drifting away to Netflix and YouTube.
The stark extent of the BBC’s challenges are set out in the corporation’s annual report, which shows the total number of British households paying the £169.50 licence fee fell to 23.9 million, suggesting a growing number of people feel able to go without BBC services.
When does Labour just add the TV tax to council tax?
It was Boris who united the Tory and BXP/Reform vote in 2019
Yet he forgets:
- that Johnson was hugely helped by being up against Corbyn.
- that the northern part of Johnson's coalition was won over by a promise of levelling up that turned out to be a lie.
- that the southern part of Johnson's coalition wanted Brexit 'done with', not just 'done'.
Corbyn is history.
The northern voters are once fooled, twice shy.
The southern voters now see the Tory Brexit for the con trick that it always was.
Those voters who have stuck with the Tories will shortly be dying off at a very signficant rate.
https://x.com/daltonsuttonio/status/1815770355140591915
Twitter has been pretty quick to delete stuff, as have a lot of embarrased independent journalists who rely too much on Twitter because they don’t have access to the mainstream official communications channels that might report these things.
If nothing else, it’s an example of how screwed-up things are going to be for the next four months in US politics.
Trump isn't at all relatable. He has an extremely negative personality.
Biden and Trump were on 98.1% combined in 2020.
https://www.reddit.com/r/TikTokCringe/comments/1e9klax/gang_of_israeli_settlers_beat_members_of_a/
Israel practices governance equivalent to the segregation of pre-Civil Rights America or apartheid South Africa. They should be fully boycotted.
Fucking sublime
2024 Tories are admittedly split about even whether they would vote Reform over LD or LD over Reform but there are far more Tory v Labour marginals than Tory v LD
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O8cDfnQD0ws
(sorry, couldn't resist!)
*Did* you do maths O level at your posh grammar school?
At least Haley held out for another few months...
Here’s the actual letter from the source. It’s obviously bollocks if you read more than the first paragraph, but the key is the website link which was actually working.
https://x.com/stclairashley/status/1815773915844596015
One early example of the total news media sh1t-show that’s coming in the US this autumn.
https://www.canoe-gorges-du-tarn.com/fr/
It is absurdly idyllic. Enough rapids to make it exciting but then long calm stretches where the sun dapples on the cool green water and the kingfishers dip in dazzlement and jewel blue dragonflies alight on your paddle
And all the way down there are French families sitting in chairs in the water. Their teen daughters laughing and swimming with their boyfriends. Kids zip wire overhead and say Bonjour! Picnics on the pebbled river beaches. Flasks of cold wine and wheels of melting cheese and beers chilled in the backwaters
Like a Gallic Eden. Almost no foreign tourists
As for 2019 that was then and since then Johnson shamed the nation with his partying during covid and many other misdemeanours which ordinary people just dispise even though you say some don't care
Only question now is where does Kimberley Cheatle fail upwards to next.
I went to public school not grammar school
Ohio was a US built ship.
Trump is every bit a latter day Mussolini, let's hope his bombers are just as crap.
The rescue efforts were led by HMS Penn, a ship named after the the founder of Pennsylvania, a swing state.
And Lt Commander Swain, HMS Penn's captain, had a son who was a Labour member (and a friend of mine, RIP.)
It will be Trump vs Harris. Place your bets! (What was the name of that ghastly C4 thing?)
66% of 2024 Conservative voters would vote Reform over Labour. Albeit only 49% of 2024 Tory voters would vote Reform over LD.
On the other side 77% of 2024 LD voters and 74% of 2024 Labour voters would also vote Tory over Reform
https://x.com/YouGov/status/1813508818216599601
The Tory voteshare declined by less than the national average in W Dorset and the Reform vote was well above average in Rotherham
https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1815762263808086351
Harris, Beshear, Shapiro all ex state Attorneys General.
Note that Harris supporters keep going up, while Undecided keeps going DOWN.
Currently Harris has support of 98.4% of all delegates surveyed so far.
Regional breakdown:
East = 700 Harris (98.2% of surveyed) with 21.5% of delegates as yet unsurveyed
Midwest = 541 Harris (97.0%) with 32.1% unsurveyed
South = 1,091 Harris (99.1%) with 7.4% unsurveyed
West = 517 Harris (95.9% with 47.3% unsurveyed
Offshore = 15 (93.8%) with 83.0% unsurveyed
Reporting 0 delegates surveyed so far = Alabama, Delaware, DC, Idaho, Washington, American Samoa, Democrats Abroad, Northern Marianas
https://apnews.com/projects/election-results-2024/ap-dnc-delegate-survey/
If he manages to tear the Conservative Party apart, it will be because you have given him the oxygen of publicity. Ignore him and he'll be no threat to your party.
Harris 44%
LV - 7/21
https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1815757890726080956
Now the Republican Party AND ticket that is soft on crime. Surprise, surprise!
They were told when they started that Hundred was stupid because everybody else plays T20. It costs the ECB money to subsidise the cost of the Hundred, so they need to sell it to investors, who have said, well its needs to be T20 (especially the Indians who want T20 global league). Also, lots of the top players are not coming to the Hundred now because the likes of MLC pay better and errh play T20.
And that is before we got to the mess of franchises that have pissed of the counties and then how they spread about the top talent, so players famously Yaaarrrrrrrkkkshire aren't playing for the franchise that is based in that part of the world.
Perhaps the perfect example of the disconnect between the different classes of Labour voter?
If we do ever quit ECHR let is be through a manifesto commitment from an elected majority government!
He also is on 47% with women compared to 42% then and 37% with voters under 30 compared to 36% in 2020.
https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1815745610185650299
Trump also gets 54% of Independents v Harris compared to 41% in 2020 and 48% of white graduates (the same as 2020).
57% of men go for Trump over Harris compared to 53% who went for Trump over Biden in 2020. Pensioners over 65 are 58% for Trump compared to 52% for Trump in 2020
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kamala-harris-trump-biden-poll-analysis-cbs-news/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election#Voter_demographics
They need one competition, make it massive, pay for the big players, play it Friday / Sat nights.
Harris will clearly win and win precisely because her opponent is about as poor as it gets.
Wildly, Kamala Harris, a person with limited support, gets to choose the future!
I just dont watch the 100
I've kayaked the Ardeche many times. It gets very busy this time of year.
How does the Verdon compare to the Ardeche area in general?
Did he same thing when TSE posted news of Joe Biden withrawl from POTUS race. Which WAS being reported.
Coincidentally, NYT story says that close Biden ally US Sen. Chris Coons (D-Delaware) was at a security form where panel was discussing fake news; when they saw first report re: Biden, they all wondered IF was an example! Sen. Coons immediately called . . . wait for it . . . Joe Biden, who confirmed that it was true.
This morning Lee Anderson started his video "Morning, campers...".
https://x.com/LeeAndersonMP_/status/1815656957329489962