Lawyers are awesome, a continuing series – politicalbetting.com

FrankBooth said:

Foxy said:

Foxy said:

Benpointer said:

dixiedean said:

Andy_JS said:

MikeL said:

CONSERVATIVE LEADERSHIP RULES (per The Sun!)

- 10 MPs to be nominated
- MP rounds of voting: Sept 4, 9, 10, 11
- Final four make pitch at Conference
- Further MP rounds of voting (to reduce to final two): Oct 9, 10
- Postal vote of members: Oct 15 to Oct 31
- Result: Nov 2

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/29395500/new-tory-leader-announced-nov-2/

Why are they spinning out for so long?

In the mistaken belief that it is a matter of the utmost national importance, and that it will command the fascination of the media and populace.

Also, because they are totally incompetent and incapable of organising a piss-up in a brewery.

I remember the Post Johnson leadership contest taking forever to whittle down the candidates to two, who then went to countrywide hustings.

They wound up with Truss and Sunak, demonstrating that a long contest may not end well.

Indeed thinking about it, the ascent of Kamala with near universal support across the party does make me think that the protracted rancor and expenditure on primaries and caucuses is not money well spent.

A long contest only seems to damage and divide a party.

So how else do you decide a candidate?

Fair point, behind closed doors wrangling does not exactly unite either in most places it happens, but all the same even if you have a primary approach the current methods do feel so, IDK, overblown and overdone. It feels like years of process just to get to the primaries, then months of convoluted further processes, and it's treated almost as sacrosanct as the actual elections, which is cool in a way but also so expensive and divisive.

FrankBooth said:

Foxy said:

Foxy said:

Benpointer said:

dixiedean said:

Andy_JS said:

MikeL said:

CONSERVATIVE LEADERSHIP RULES (per The Sun!)

- 10 MPs to be nominated
- MP rounds of voting: Sept 4, 9, 10, 11
- Final four make pitch at Conference
- Further MP rounds of voting (to reduce to final two): Oct 9, 10
- Postal vote of members: Oct 15 to Oct 31
- Result: Nov 2

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/29395500/new-tory-leader-announced-nov-2/

Why are they spinning out for so long?

In the mistaken belief that it is a matter of the utmost national importance, and that it will command the fascination of the media and populace.

Also, because they are totally incompetent and incapable of organising a piss-up in a brewery.

I remember the Post Johnson leadership contest taking forever to whittle down the candidates to two, who then went to countrywide hustings.

They wound up with Truss and Sunak, demonstrating that a long contest may not end well.

Indeed thinking about it, the ascent of Kamala with near universal support across the party does make me think that the protracted rancor and expenditure on primaries and caucuses is not money well spent.

A long contest only seems to damage and divide a party.

So how else do you decide a candidate?

You could have a national candidate election. Qualification: elected Senator, House Rep or Governor. Electorate: paid up party members.

Foxy said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Oh dear.

Jenrick is a more intellectual Truss.

Like how Vance is a more intellectual Trump? Hardly heavy lifting in either case!

To be fair, Vance is very intelligent. You don't get into Yale Law School on a nearly full scholarship otherwise.

As has been demonstrated here many times, having a high IQ doesn't guarantee any degree of compassion or humanity.

At least you finally admit I’m a lot fucking smarter than you. As for the compassion, perhaps you need brains to see it

rcs1000 said:

FrankBooth said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Oh dear.

Jenrick is a more intellectual Truss.

Like how Vance is a more intellectual Trump? Hardly heavy lifting in either case!

Like him or not, Vance is obviously clever. Take your opponents seriously.

Vance is clever, and he wrote an excellent book. And, while I'm no fan of Peter Thiel, he knows how to hire smart people.

It's just a shame I can't have the Hillbilly Elegy Vance rather than the Putin shill Vance.

While it makes some interesting, certainly debatable points, on the whole"Hillbilly Elegy" is dishonest and misleading.

Like it's author.

I do note, that Vance's book did for him, what "Dreams of My Father" did for Barack Obama.

FrankBooth said:

kle4 said:

FrankBooth said:

Foxy said:

Foxy said:

Benpointer said:

dixiedean said:

Andy_JS said:

MikeL said:

CONSERVATIVE LEADERSHIP RULES (per The Sun!)

- 10 MPs to be nominated
- MP rounds of voting: Sept 4, 9, 10, 11
- Final four make pitch at Conference
- Further MP rounds of voting (to reduce to final two): Oct 9, 10
- Postal vote of members: Oct 15 to Oct 31
- Result: Nov 2

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/29395500/new-tory-leader-announced-nov-2/

Why are they spinning out for so long?

In the mistaken belief that it is a matter of the utmost national importance, and that it will command the fascination of the media and populace.

Also, because they are totally incompetent and incapable of organising a piss-up in a brewery.

I remember the Post Johnson leadership contest taking forever to whittle down the candidates to two, who then went to countrywide hustings.

They wound up with Truss and Sunak, demonstrating that a long contest may not end well.

Indeed thinking about it, the ascent of Kamala with near universal support across the party does make me think that the protracted rancor and expenditure on primaries and caucuses is not money well spent.

A long contest only seems to damage and divide a party.

So how else do you decide a candidate?

Fair point, behind closed doors wrangling does not exactly unite either in most places it happens, but all the same even if you have a primary approach the current methods do feel so, IDK, overblown and overdone. It feels like years of process just to get to the primaries, then months of convoluted further processes, and it's treated almost as sacrosanct as the actual elections, which is cool in a way but also so expensive and divisive.

Yes though simply anointing someone who did badly when she ran previously hardly seems like a better idea.

That's an experiment that we are yet to see the results of.

Maybe picking a deputy leader the way Biden did, then standing down and endorsing them will be shown to be a good system.

Tweedledee said:

Benpointer said:

Foxy said:

Benpointer said:

dixiedean said:

Andy_JS said:

MikeL said:

CONSERVATIVE LEADERSHIP RULES (per The Sun!)

- 10 MPs to be nominated
- MP rounds of voting: Sept 4, 9, 10, 11
- Final four make pitch at Conference
- Further MP rounds of voting (to reduce to final two): Oct 9, 10
- Postal vote of members: Oct 15 to Oct 31
- Result: Nov 2

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/29395500/new-tory-leader-announced-nov-2/

Why are they spinning out for so long?

In the mistaken belief that it is a matter of the utmost national importance, and that it will command the fascination of the media and populace.

Also, because they are totally incompetent and incapable of organising a piss-up in a brewery.

I remember the Post Johnson leadership contest taking forever to whittle down the candidates to two, who then went to countrywide hustings.

They wound up with Truss and Sunak, demonstrating that a long contest may not end well.

This is the party that spent £700m on getting four people to volunteer to be flown to Rwanda.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jul/22/failed-rwanda-deportation-scheme-cost-700m-says-yvette-cooper

I would rather waste 700m quid than murder 100 000 civilians. Even brown ones

The Tories supported the Iraq war too.

Leon said:

Foxy said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Oh dear.

Jenrick is a more intellectual Truss.

Like how Vance is a more intellectual Trump? Hardly heavy lifting in either case!

To be fair, Vance is very intelligent. You don't get into Yale Law School on a nearly full scholarship otherwise.

As has been demonstrated here many times, having a high IQ doesn't guarantee any degree of compassion or humanity.

At least you finally admit I’m a lot fucking smarter than you. As for the compassion, perhaps you need brains to see it

And as we can see, there are also dim people who lack compassion.

This is *really* interesting - I'm hearing that farmers may be to get paid for new access footpaths for walking, cycling, riding across their land under the Sustainable Farming Initiative. It's been in the works for a long time with a lot of lobbying from many groups, but may be here.

I should credit this as early this year, so under the Conservative Govt, though not Department for Transport.

eg £~80 per 100m per annum for a walking path created on the field alongside a country road. Higher payments for cycling, bridleway, accessible paths. Including upgrading Rights of Way.

Section 22b on here has a bit more, but it's a bit down a rabbtihole.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/agricultural-transition-plan-2021-to-2024/technical-annex-the-combined-environmental-land-management-offer#access-and-engagement

Commentary from a cycling man, but I'll need to have a deeper dig for the rest:
https://x.com/adamtranter/status/1815478923154612374

Potential creation of separated modes of travel in the countryside, which is where a lot of KSIs happen. An easy win for - I think - everyone.

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

bondegezou said:

Nigelb said:

I’d have to politely decline, too.
And am about as likely to be asked.

“ Joe Manchin says he wouldn’t serve as Harris VP. “

Has anyone checked whether Kyrsten Sinema is interested?

NOT being a Democrat any more bit of a barrier, methinks.

Also the fact that putting Sinema on the ticket, would be great way for Harris to ensure she loses Arizona.

Reckon she's about as electable in AZ, as Sarah Palin proved to be in AK in 2022.

Because my business is in Arizona (and because our continued success is in the gift of elected representatives), I met Ms Sinema a couple of times. And I came away pretty impressed: she was clearly smart, and hard working, and very determined.

But she was also clearly... of a very fixed mind.

As an entrepreneur, nothing kills a business as quickly as a fixed mind. My most oft repeated expression to my employees is "none of us is as smart as the market". In other words, you might thin you have a great idea (and I might think you have a great idea), but if people aren't actually buying the product... then then we have to listen to the market. Data beats brilliant analysis 10/10 times.

Benpointer said:

Leon said:

Foxy said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Oh dear.

Jenrick is a more intellectual Truss.

Like how Vance is a more intellectual Trump? Hardly heavy lifting in either case!

To be fair, Vance is very intelligent. You don't get into Yale Law School on a nearly full scholarship otherwise.

As has been demonstrated here many times, having a high IQ doesn't guarantee any degree of compassion or humanity.

At least you finally admit I’m a lot fucking smarter than you. As for the compassion, perhaps you need brains to see it

And as we can see, there are also dim people who lack compassion.

By definition. Eg you. Lefties like you who are - let us be kind - of midwitted intellect cannot see that your virtue signalling attitude to things like immigration in the end makes everyone worse off

williamglenn said:

It’s fair to say that Giorgia Meloni has better chemistry with Elon Musk than she has with Macron:

https://x.com/iam_smx/status/1815203134299369825

Famously Musk does not have sex with his baby mamas, preferring to inseminate them via artificial insemination (this is actually true)

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

FrankBooth said:

kle4 said:

FrankBooth said:

Foxy said:

Foxy said:

Benpointer said:

dixiedean said:

Andy_JS said:

MikeL said:

CONSERVATIVE LEADERSHIP RULES (per The Sun!)

- 10 MPs to be nominated
- MP rounds of voting: Sept 4, 9, 10, 11
- Final four make pitch at Conference
- Further MP rounds of voting (to reduce to final two): Oct 9, 10
- Postal vote of members: Oct 15 to Oct 31
- Result: Nov 2

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/29395500/new-tory-leader-announced-nov-2/

Why are they spinning out for so long?

In the mistaken belief that it is a matter of the utmost national importance, and that it will command the fascination of the media and populace.

Also, because they are totally incompetent and incapable of organising a piss-up in a brewery.

I remember the Post Johnson leadership contest taking forever to whittle down the candidates to two, who then went to countrywide hustings.

They wound up with Truss and Sunak, demonstrating that a long contest may not end well.

Indeed thinking about it, the ascent of Kamala with near universal support across the party does make me think that the protracted rancor and expenditure on primaries and caucuses is not money well spent.

A long contest only seems to damage and divide a party.

So how else do you decide a candidate?

Fair point, behind closed doors wrangling does not exactly unite either in most places it happens, but all the same even if you have a primary approach the current methods do feel so, IDK, overblown and overdone. It feels like years of process just to get to the primaries, then months of convoluted further processes, and it's treated almost as sacrosanct as the actual elections, which is cool in a way but also so expensive and divisive.

Yes though simply anointing someone who did badly when she ran previously hardly seems like a better idea.

Saying that Kamala Harris "did badly" is not really correct; she lost to Biden, but she was NOT alone in that.

Note that George W. Bush also was a loser, to Ronald Reagan in 1980. Which strangely enough did NOT mean he was DOA running against Dukakis in 1988.

As Starr said to Clinton…I think you have the wrong Bush.

viewcode said:

williamglenn said:

It’s fair to say that Giorgia Meloni has better chemistry with Elon Musk than she has with Macron:

https://x.com/iam_smx/status/1815203134299369825

Famously Musk does not have sex with his baby mamas, preferring to inseminate them via artificial insemination (this is actually true)

Er, is that, actually and, um, always, true??

Not doubting you. Just quite surprised

Sorry if I missed this being covered, but not an easy read.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c2q03ppzzz0o

Woman died after begging GP for help - inquest

...

The hearing in Exeter heard that she had told her GP, Dr Lucy Shenton, in June 2021: "Dear Dr Shenton, I know you are doing your best for me, but I really need help with feeding.

"I do not understand why the hospital did not do anything to help when I went in. I am hungry, I want to eat."

She continued: "I have been unable to sit up or chew since March and the only person helping me eat is my mum. I cannot get enough calories from a syringe.

"Please help me get enough food to live."

rcs1000 said:

rcs1000 said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

bondegezou said:

Nigelb said:

I’d have to politely decline, too.
And am about as likely to be asked.

“ Joe Manchin says he wouldn’t serve as Harris VP. “

Has anyone checked whether Kyrsten Sinema is interested?

NOT being a Democrat any more bit of a barrier, methinks.

Also the fact that putting Sinema on the ticket, would be great way for Harris to ensure she loses Arizona.

Reckon she's about as electable in AZ, as Sarah Palin proved to be in AK in 2022.

Because my business is in Arizona (and because our continued success is in the gift of elected representatives), I met Ms Sinema a couple of times. And I came away pretty impressed: she was clearly smart, and hard working, and very determined.

But she was also clearly... of a very fixed mind.

As an entrepreneur, nothing kills a business as quickly as a fixed mind. My most oft repeated expression to my employees is "none of us is as smart as the market". In other words, you might thin you have a great idea (and I might think you have a great idea), but if people aren't actually buying the product... then then we have to listen to the market. Data beats brilliant analysis 10/10 times.

As an aside, the former Republican Governor of Arizona - Doug Ducey - would be at the top of my list for Republicans I would like to run the US: he was smart, honest, and did a fantastic job making Arizona a great place to do business. What a shame that the Republican Party is no longer filled with people like him.

Any interactions with Sen. Mark Kelly? Who is reportedly a prospect for Kamala Harris running mate, and who IMHO would bring some potential advantages to her ticket in AZ and beyond.

Leon said:

I’m running out of France

Eurostar was cancelled??

AP - Harris claims most of the delegates she needs for the nomination, sets new fundraising record

Vice President Kamala Harris won the backing of more than half the Democratic delegates she needs to become her party’s nominee and set a new fundraising record Monday in her first 24 hours as a presidential candidate, as top Democrats rallied to her in their bid to defeat Republican Donald Trump. . . .

More than 1,200 pledged delegates have told The Associated Press or announced that they plan to support Harris at the convention — more than half the 1,976 benchmark set by Democratic National Committee rules [half of all pledge delegates, which excludes super-delegates].

On Sunday afternoon, Biden’s campaign formally changed its name to Harris for President, reflecting that she is inheriting his political operation of more than 1,000 staffers and a war chest that stood at nearly $96 million at the end of June. She added $81 million to that total in the first 24 hours after Biden’s endorsement, her campaign said — a presidential fundraising record — with contributions from more than 888,000 donors.

The campaign also saw a surge of interest after Harris took over, with more than 28,000 new volunteers registered since the announcement . . .

Congressional Hispanic Caucus chairwoman Nanette Barragan, who emphasized that she was “all in” behind the vice president, said she spoke Sunday with Harris, who communicated that she preferred to forgo a virtual roll call for the nomination process and instead hold a process that adheres to regular order [in-person vote at the Democratic National Convention].

Leon said:

viewcode said:

williamglenn said:

It’s fair to say that Giorgia Meloni has better chemistry with Elon Musk than she has with Macron:

https://x.com/iam_smx/status/1815203134299369825

Famously Musk does not have sex with his baby mamas, preferring to inseminate them via artificial insemination (this is actually true)

Er, is that, actually and, um, always, true??

Not doubting you. Just quite surprised

It shows a certain delicacy about exposing the laydeez to the full Musk.

Leon said:

I’m running out of France

They have some very remote colonies with very limited internet access. I hear they're worth a visit.

WillG said:

What a twat JD Vance is:

Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH), Donald Trump’s vice presidential pick, said in 2021 that Vice President Kamala Harris is one of the “childless cat ladies” who is “miserable” with her life and has no direct stake in America because she is not a mom, the HuffPost reports.

The Repulican lady interviewed on R4 this evening was derisive about that - said she was a single cat lady too.

NickPalmer said:

WillG said:

What a twat JD Vance is:

Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH), Donald Trump’s vice presidential pick, said in 2021 that Vice President Kamala Harris is one of the “childless cat ladies” who is “miserable” with her life and has no direct stake in America because she is not a mom, the HuffPost reports.

The Repulican lady interviewed on R4 this evening was derisive about that - said she was a single cat lady too.

Meaning she was without spouse OR has just one cat?

NickPalmer said:

WillG said:

What a twat JD Vance is:

Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH), Donald Trump’s vice presidential pick, said in 2021 that Vice President Kamala Harris is one of the “childless cat ladies” who is “miserable” with her life and has no direct stake in America because she is not a mom, the HuffPost reports.

The Repulican lady interviewed on R4 this evening was derisive about that - said she was a single cat lady too.

That kind of comment is likely to go down badly . If Vance thinks trashing women who either choose not to have kids or can’t have them is a vote winner then he really is deluded .

nico679 said:

NickPalmer said:

WillG said:

What a twat JD Vance is:

Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH), Donald Trump’s vice presidential pick, said in 2021 that Vice President Kamala Harris is one of the “childless cat ladies” who is “miserable” with her life and has no direct stake in America because she is not a mom, the HuffPost reports.

The Repulican lady interviewed on R4 this evening was derisive about that - said she was a single cat lady too.

That kind of comment is likely to go down badly . If Vance thinks trashing women who either choose not to have kids or can’t have them is a vote winner then he really is deluded .

Wasn't it female voters who won it for Biden last time? I know he increased the Democrat share among white men, which was likely important too, but I seem to recall the gender gap was pretty large still.

If anyone followed my back tory permanent leader starting in 2025 or later suggestion, with the new confirmed time table it is - avoiding black swans - clearly a confirmed loser. There is still a possibility of exiting it for not much of a loss - only cost me £4.80.

Leon said:

viewcode said:

williamglenn said:

It’s fair to say that Giorgia Meloni has better chemistry with Elon Musk than she has with Macron:

https://x.com/iam_smx/status/1815203134299369825

Famously Musk does not have sex with his baby mamas, preferring to inseminate them via artificial insemination (this is actually true)

Er, is that, actually and, um, always, true??

Not doubting you. Just quite surprised

• Always? Doubtful: I assume he lost his virginity in the usual manner
  
• Exclusively: probably not. Given his age, very poor build, drug use and general nerdy manner I'm not sure he enjoys sex, but I assume he's had penile-vaginal sex with his girlfriends/wives at least once each
  
• Lately. Yes. He has many children and if the internet is correct (!!) the latter were produced by insemination.
  

He is, as I'm sure you've noticed, rather odd. If you scurry off and find it's not true I apologise, but it's been remarked more than once.

EDIT: Jeez, it's worse than I thought. Five of his sons were IVF and one of his daughters was by a surrogate.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexzhavoronkov/2022/07/27/elon-musk-and-other-billionaires-make-their-babies-via-ivf-and-surrogatesis-it-a-future-of-reproduction/#

EDIT 2: "...Did Musk use IVF to conceive his children? Yes, Musk used IVF to conceive five of his children with his first wife Justine, as were Musk's twins he had last year with his Neuralink employee, Shivon Zilis. His second and third children with Grimes were born through a surrogate...", see https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-children

viewcode said:

Leon said:

viewcode said:

williamglenn said:

It’s fair to say that Giorgia Meloni has better chemistry with Elon Musk than she has with Macron:

https://x.com/iam_smx/status/1815203134299369825

Famously Musk does not have sex with his baby mamas, preferring to inseminate them via artificial insemination (this is actually true)

Er, is that, actually and, um, always, true??

Not doubting you. Just quite surprised

• Always? Doubtful: I assume he lost his virginity in the usual manner
  
• Exclusively: probably not. Given his age, very poor build, drug use and general nerdy manner I'm not sure he enjoys sex, but I assume he's had penile-vaginal sex with his girlfriends/wives at least once each
  
• Lately. Yes. He has many children and if the internet is correct (!!) the latter were produced by insemination.
  

He is, as I'm sure you've noticed, rather odd. If you scurry off and find it's not true I apologise, but it's been remarked more than once.

EDIT: Jeez, it's worse than I thought. Five of his sons were IVF and one of his daughters was by a surrogate.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexzhavoronkov/2022/07/27/elon-musk-and-other-billionaires-make-their-babies-via-ivf-and-surrogatesis-it-a-future-of-reproduction/#

EDIT 2: "...Did Musk use IVF to conceive his children? Yes, Musk used IVF to conceive five of his children with his first wife Justine, as were Musk's twins he had last year with his Neuralink employee, Shivon Zilis. His second and third children with Grimes were born through a surrogate...", see https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-children

EDIT 3: "...Musk has relied on reproductive technologies in welcoming eight of his ten children. His family tree is nearly as complex as his portfolio. Five of Musk’s six children with ex-wife Justine Wilson were conceived via IVF. Musk fathered his next two children, X and Y, with girlfriend Claire Boucher–the first via surrogate who was born just a month after Musk welcomed twins conceived via IVF with employee Shivon Zilis...", see https://www.thepublicdiscourse.com/2023/08/90327/

kle4 said:

nico679 said:

NickPalmer said:

WillG said:

What a twat JD Vance is:

Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH), Donald Trump’s vice presidential pick, said in 2021 that Vice President Kamala Harris is one of the “childless cat ladies” who is “miserable” with her life and has no direct stake in America because she is not a mom, the HuffPost reports.

The Repulican lady interviewed on R4 this evening was derisive about that - said she was a single cat lady too.

That kind of comment is likely to go down badly . If Vance thinks trashing women who either choose not to have kids or can’t have them is a vote winner then he really is deluded .

Wasn't it female voters who won it for Biden last time? I know he increased the Democrat share among white men, which was likely important too, but I seem to recall the gender gap was pretty large still.

IIRC, the number of women now reaching the age of 45 without kids is about 25%. More pertinently, the number of these who have chosen not to have kids is about 3%.
That we have contrived to arrange society thus is one of history's biggest failures.

rottenborough said:

nico679 said:

NickPalmer said:

WillG said:

What a twat JD Vance is:

Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH), Donald Trump’s vice presidential pick, said in 2021 that Vice President Kamala Harris is one of the “childless cat ladies” who is “miserable” with her life and has no direct stake in America because she is not a mom, the HuffPost reports.

The Repulican lady interviewed on R4 this evening was derisive about that - said she was a single cat lady too.

That kind of comment is likely to go down badly . If Vance thinks trashing women who either choose not to have kids or can’t have them is a vote winner then he really is deluded .

He also wants to force those who don't want to have kids to go through with pregnancy.

Although I think he has been generous enough to allow a week's grace for rape.

I guess Trump thinks Vance playing the total Rottweiler is good for the campaign, but I wonder.

And to be honest I think Vance is actually a better person than this. He's trying too hard to be uber Trump cult member.

Before he met Trump, J.D. Vance made his name & fame by branding his own kinfolk as White trash.

Better person my rosy red rump.

viewcode said:

viewcode said:

Leon said:

viewcode said:

williamglenn said:

It’s fair to say that Giorgia Meloni has better chemistry with Elon Musk than she has with Macron:

https://x.com/iam_smx/status/1815203134299369825

Famously Musk does not have sex with his baby mamas, preferring to inseminate them via artificial insemination (this is actually true)

Er, is that, actually and, um, always, true??

Not doubting you. Just quite surprised

• Always? Doubtful: I assume he lost his virginity in the usual manner
  
• Exclusively: probably not. Given his age, very poor build, drug use and general nerdy manner I'm not sure he enjoys sex, but I assume he's had penile-vaginal sex with his girlfriends/wives at least once each
  
• Lately. Yes. He has many children and if the internet is correct (!!) the latter were produced by insemination.
  

He is, as I'm sure you've noticed, rather odd. If you scurry off and find it's not true I apologise, but it's been remarked more than once.

EDIT: Jeez, it's worse than I thought. Five of his sons were IVF and one of his daughters was by a surrogate.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexzhavoronkov/2022/07/27/elon-musk-and-other-billionaires-make-their-babies-via-ivf-and-surrogatesis-it-a-future-of-reproduction/#

EDIT 2: "...Did Musk use IVF to conceive his children? Yes, Musk used IVF to conceive five of his children with his first wife Justine, as were Musk's twins he had last year with his Neuralink employee, Shivon Zilis. His second and third children with Grimes were born through a surrogate...", see https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-children

EDIT 3: "...Musk has relied on reproductive technologies in welcoming eight of his ten children. His family tree is nearly as complex as his portfolio. Five of Musk’s six children with ex-wife Justine Wilson were conceived via IVF. Musk fathered his next two children, X and Y, with girlfriend Claire Boucher–the first via surrogate who was born just a month after Musk welcomed twins conceived via IVF with employee Shivon Zilis...", see https://www.thepublicdiscourse.com/2023/08/90327/

EDIT 4:

I don't want to go into this overmuch, but he has approx 12 children, a majority of which were either surrogacy or IVF. It might be that all of them were except his first (his first died of SIDS at less than six months).

I can't really go into this further without names and dates and I'm sure the mods would hate that, but look at the links below.

https://bing.com/search?q=Elon+Musk+children
https://people.com/parents/everything-to-know-about-elon-musks-family-kids/
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/does-elon-musk-have-12-kids-heres-what-we-know-about-the-tesla-ceos-big-sized-family/articleshow/111239566.cms
https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-61880709
https://pagesix.com/article/elon-musk-children/

Leon said:

I’m running out of France

You need to turn the France bottle upside down and give it a good whack.

viewcode said:

Leon said:

I’m running out of France

You need to turn the France bottle upside down and give it a good whack.

Help! Stuck in Andorra!

Hillary was a lawyer, Biden was a lawyer, Kerry was a lawyer, Bill Clinton was a lawyer, Bob Dole was a lawyer, their records in presidential elections somewhat mixed

nico679 said:

Latest Morning Consult poll. Fieldwork 21 and 22 July .

Trump 47
Harris 45

Harris rises to Michael Dukakis levels.

Dukakis got 45.6% in 1988, so she may yet beat him, McGovern and Mondale at least as having led the Democrats to their biggest defeat in the last half century or so

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ooooh.

The Tory leadership election will be an online vote for members.

Next leader should be picked just before US election then, MPs will pick 4 candidates by the conference who will address members at conference then whittle down to 2 for members

Astonishing to think this could happen wrt a UK prime minister.

"Former PM Lord Wilson sold papers to help fund his care"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cljy0jw4rwpo

viewcode said:

Cookie said:

kle4 said:

nico679 said:

NickPalmer said:

WillG said:

What a twat JD Vance is:

Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH), Donald Trump’s vice presidential pick, said in 2021 that Vice President Kamala Harris is one of the “childless cat ladies” who is “miserable” with her life and has no direct stake in America because she is not a mom, the HuffPost reports.

The Repulican lady interviewed on R4 this evening was derisive about that - said she was a single cat lady too.

That kind of comment is likely to go down badly . If Vance thinks trashing women who either choose not to have kids or can’t have them is a vote winner then he really is deluded .

Wasn't it female voters who won it for Biden last time? I know he increased the Democrat share among white men, which was likely important too, but I seem to recall the gender gap was pretty large still.

IIRC, the number of women now reaching the age of 45 without kids is about 25%. More pertinently, the number of these who have chosen not to have kids is about 3%.
That we have contrived to arrange society thus is one of history's biggest failures.

A rather horrible cooperation between the Conservative Party (stop paying poor people to have children!) and boomers (give me money, not my children!) led to an outcome neither side wanted. In fairness to them, the extended childhood ushered in by New Labour (everybody must go to University!) didn't help either.

Isn't it more to do with housing and incomes than anything else?

Because the policies of successive governments have created a lack of housing, and because the demand curve for housing is very inelastic, people end up putting everything they can possibly afford into housing. Combine this with powerful government incentives to get women into the workplace (lots more tax revenue), and suddenly for many people there is a whole second income to hose at the housing market. And like magic, because demand remains constant, but we've nearly doubled the availabile money chasing those same houses, house prices double too.

In turn, this means that buying a house requires two incomes for most families. That means it's way harder for a woman to take the time to have kids.

There are other issues, but I think this is probably the biggest single driver of modern childlessness.

The bad news is that it will take more than just abolishing planning permission to fix this mess, if for no other reason than that build costs driven by miriads of well intentioned building regs are unpleasantly close to the current unaffordable market prices for large chunks of the country.

There is also the little matter that we've importing 3/4 million people a year as part of the immigration ponzi scheme, and they need about the same amount of housing a year as the system currently builds in total.

theProle said:

viewcode said:

Cookie said:

kle4 said:

nico679 said:

NickPalmer said:

WillG said:

What a twat JD Vance is:

Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH), Donald Trump’s vice presidential pick, said in 2021 that Vice President Kamala Harris is one of the “childless cat ladies” who is “miserable” with her life and has no direct stake in America because she is not a mom, the HuffPost reports.

The Repulican lady interviewed on R4 this evening was derisive about that - said she was a single cat lady too.

That kind of comment is likely to go down badly . If Vance thinks trashing women who either choose not to have kids or can’t have them is a vote winner then he really is deluded .

Wasn't it female voters who won it for Biden last time? I know he increased the Democrat share among white men, which was likely important too, but I seem to recall the gender gap was pretty large still.

IIRC, the number of women now reaching the age of 45 without kids is about 25%. More pertinently, the number of these who have chosen not to have kids is about 3%.
That we have contrived to arrange society thus is one of history's biggest failures.

A rather horrible cooperation between the Conservative Party (stop paying poor people to have children!) and boomers (give me money, not my children!) led to an outcome neither side wanted. In fairness to them, the extended childhood ushered in by New Labour (everybody must go to University!) didn't help either.

Isn't it more to do with housing and incomes than anything else?

Because the policies of successive governments have created a lack of housing, and because the demand curve for housing is very inelastic, people end up putting everything they can possibly afford into housing. Combine this with powerful government incentives to get women into the workplace (lots more tax revenue), and suddenly for many people there is a whole second income to hose at the housing market. And like magic, because demand remains constant, but we've nearly doubled the availabile money chasing those same houses, house prices double too.

In turn, this means that buying a house requires two incomes for most families. That means it's way harder for a woman to take the time to have kids.

There are other issues, but I think this is probably the biggest single driver of modern childlessness.

The bad news is that it will take more than just abolishing planning permission to fix this mess, if for no other reason than that build costs driven by miriads of well intentioned building regs are unpleasantly close to the current unaffordable market prices for large chunks of the country.

There is also the little matter that we've importing 3/4 million people a year as part of the immigration ponzi scheme, and they need about the same amount of housing a year as the system currently builds in total.

Yes more affordable homes needed as well as controlled immigration and more tax breaks for marriage and subsidies for mothers

edmundintokyo said:

I think Harris is value for election winner right now. It'll be at least a week or so before we can get useful information from the polling.

Normally the side that's having the most fun is winning, and all of a sudden the Dem side is having fun.

They had more fun with McGovern than Republicans did with Nixon too, Nixon still won a landslide

viewcode said:

viewcode said:

viewcode said:

Leon said:

viewcode said:

williamglenn said:

It’s fair to say that Giorgia Meloni has better chemistry with Elon Musk than she has with Macron:

https://x.com/iam_smx/status/1815203134299369825

Famously Musk does not have sex with his baby mamas, preferring to inseminate them via artificial insemination (this is actually true)

Er, is that, actually and, um, always, true??

Not doubting you. Just quite surprised

• Always? Doubtful: I assume he lost his virginity in the usual manner
  
• Exclusively: probably not. Given his age, very poor build, drug use and general nerdy manner I'm not sure he enjoys sex, but I assume he's had penile-vaginal sex with his girlfriends/wives at least once each
  
• Lately. Yes. He has many children and if the internet is correct (!!) the latter were produced by insemination.
  

He is, as I'm sure you've noticed, rather odd. If you scurry off and find it's not true I apologise, but it's been remarked more than once.

EDIT: Jeez, it's worse than I thought. Five of his sons were IVF and one of his daughters was by a surrogate.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexzhavoronkov/2022/07/27/elon-musk-and-other-billionaires-make-their-babies-via-ivf-and-surrogatesis-it-a-future-of-reproduction/#

EDIT 2: "...Did Musk use IVF to conceive his children? Yes, Musk used IVF to conceive five of his children with his first wife Justine, as were Musk's twins he had last year with his Neuralink employee, Shivon Zilis. His second and third children with Grimes were born through a surrogate...", see https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-children

EDIT 3: "...Musk has relied on reproductive technologies in welcoming eight of his ten children. His family tree is nearly as complex as his portfolio. Five of Musk’s six children with ex-wife Justine Wilson were conceived via IVF. Musk fathered his next two children, X and Y, with girlfriend Claire Boucher–the first via surrogate who was born just a month after Musk welcomed twins conceived via IVF with employee Shivon Zilis...", see https://www.thepublicdiscourse.com/2023/08/90327/

EDIT 4:

I don't want to go into this overmuch, but he has approx 12 children, a majority of which were either surrogacy or IVF. It might be that all of them were except his first (his first died of SIDS at less than six months).

I can't really go into this further without names and dates and I'm sure the mods would hate that, but look at the links below.

https://bing.com/search?q=Elon+Musk+children
https://people.com/parents/everything-to-know-about-elon-musks-family-kids/
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/does-elon-musk-have-12-kids-heres-what-we-know-about-the-tesla-ceos-big-sized-family/articleshow/111239566.cms
https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-61880709
https://pagesix.com/article/elon-musk-children/

EDIT 5:
...and famously, one of them is trans.

https://nitter.poast.org/CollinRugg/status/1815496170334204202#m

viewcode said:

viewcode said:

viewcode said:

viewcode said:

Leon said:

viewcode said:

williamglenn said:

It’s fair to say that Giorgia Meloni has better chemistry with Elon Musk than she has with Macron:

https://x.com/iam_smx/status/1815203134299369825

Famously Musk does not have sex with his baby mamas, preferring to inseminate them via artificial insemination (this is actually true)

Er, is that, actually and, um, always, true??

Not doubting you. Just quite surprised

• Always? Doubtful: I assume he lost his virginity in the usual manner
  
• Exclusively: probably not. Given his age, very poor build, drug use and general nerdy manner I'm not sure he enjoys sex, but I assume he's had penile-vaginal sex with his girlfriends/wives at least once each
  
• Lately. Yes. He has many children and if the internet is correct (!!) the latter were produced by insemination.
  

He is, as I'm sure you've noticed, rather odd. If you scurry off and find it's not true I apologise, but it's been remarked more than once.

EDIT: Jeez, it's worse than I thought. Five of his sons were IVF and one of his daughters was by a surrogate.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexzhavoronkov/2022/07/27/elon-musk-and-other-billionaires-make-their-babies-via-ivf-and-surrogatesis-it-a-future-of-reproduction/#

EDIT 2: "...Did Musk use IVF to conceive his children? Yes, Musk used IVF to conceive five of his children with his first wife Justine, as were Musk's twins he had last year with his Neuralink employee, Shivon Zilis. His second and third children with Grimes were born through a surrogate...", see https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-children

EDIT 3: "...Musk has relied on reproductive technologies in welcoming eight of his ten children. His family tree is nearly as complex as his portfolio. Five of Musk’s six children with ex-wife Justine Wilson were conceived via IVF. Musk fathered his next two children, X and Y, with girlfriend Claire Boucher–the first via surrogate who was born just a month after Musk welcomed twins conceived via IVF with employee Shivon Zilis...", see https://www.thepublicdiscourse.com/2023/08/90327/

EDIT 4:

I don't want to go into this overmuch, but he has approx 12 children, a majority of which were either surrogacy or IVF. It might be that all of them were except his first (his first died of SIDS at less than six months).

I can't really go into this further without names and dates and I'm sure the mods would hate that, but look at the links below.

https://bing.com/search?q=Elon+Musk+children
https://people.com/parents/everything-to-know-about-elon-musks-family-kids/
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/does-elon-musk-have-12-kids-heres-what-we-know-about-the-tesla-ceos-big-sized-family/articleshow/111239566.cms
https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-61880709
https://pagesix.com/article/elon-musk-children/

EDIT 5:
...and famously, one of them is trans.

https://nitter.poast.org/CollinRugg/status/1815496170334204202#m

Got a "this website is suspect" warning for this link!

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

viewcode said:

viewcode said:

viewcode said:

viewcode said:

Leon said:

viewcode said:

williamglenn said:

It’s fair to say that Giorgia Meloni has better chemistry with Elon Musk than she has with Macron:

https://x.com/iam_smx/status/1815203134299369825

Famously Musk does not have sex with his baby mamas, preferring to inseminate them via artificial insemination (this is actually true)

Er, is that, actually and, um, always, true??

Not doubting you. Just quite surprised

• Always? Doubtful: I assume he lost his virginity in the usual manner
  
• Exclusively: probably not. Given his age, very poor build, drug use and general nerdy manner I'm not sure he enjoys sex, but I assume he's had penile-vaginal sex with his girlfriends/wives at least once each
  
• Lately. Yes. He has many children and if the internet is correct (!!) the latter were produced by insemination.
  

He is, as I'm sure you've noticed, rather odd. If you scurry off and find it's not true I apologise, but it's been remarked more than once.

EDIT: Jeez, it's worse than I thought. Five of his sons were IVF and one of his daughters was by a surrogate.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexzhavoronkov/2022/07/27/elon-musk-and-other-billionaires-make-their-babies-via-ivf-and-surrogatesis-it-a-future-of-reproduction/#

EDIT 2: "...Did Musk use IVF to conceive his children? Yes, Musk used IVF to conceive five of his children with his first wife Justine, as were Musk's twins he had last year with his Neuralink employee, Shivon Zilis. His second and third children with Grimes were born through a surrogate...", see https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-children

EDIT 3: "...Musk has relied on reproductive technologies in welcoming eight of his ten children. His family tree is nearly as complex as his portfolio. Five of Musk’s six children with ex-wife Justine Wilson were conceived via IVF. Musk fathered his next two children, X and Y, with girlfriend Claire Boucher–the first via surrogate who was born just a month after Musk welcomed twins conceived via IVF with employee Shivon Zilis...", see https://www.thepublicdiscourse.com/2023/08/90327/

EDIT 4:

I don't want to go into this overmuch, but he has approx 12 children, a majority of which were either surrogacy or IVF. It might be that all of them were except his first (his first died of SIDS at less than six months).

I can't really go into this further without names and dates and I'm sure the mods would hate that, but look at the links below.

https://bing.com/search?q=Elon+Musk+children
https://people.com/parents/everything-to-know-about-elon-musks-family-kids/
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/does-elon-musk-have-12-kids-heres-what-we-know-about-the-tesla-ceos-big-sized-family/articleshow/111239566.cms
https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-61880709
https://pagesix.com/article/elon-musk-children/

EDIT 5:
...and famously, one of them is trans.

https://nitter.poast.org/CollinRugg/status/1815496170334204202#m

Got a "this website is suspect" warning for this link!

Does the original help? https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/1815496170334204202#m

viewcode said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

viewcode said:

viewcode said:

viewcode said:

viewcode said:

Leon said:

viewcode said:

williamglenn said:

It’s fair to say that Giorgia Meloni has better chemistry with Elon Musk than she has with Macron:

https://x.com/iam_smx/status/1815203134299369825

Famously Musk does not have sex with his baby mamas, preferring to inseminate them via artificial insemination (this is actually true)

Er, is that, actually and, um, always, true??

Not doubting you. Just quite surprised

• Always? Doubtful: I assume he lost his virginity in the usual manner
  
• Exclusively: probably not. Given his age, very poor build, drug use and general nerdy manner I'm not sure he enjoys sex, but I assume he's had penile-vaginal sex with his girlfriends/wives at least once each
  
• Lately. Yes. He has many children and if the internet is correct (!!) the latter were produced by insemination.
  

He is, as I'm sure you've noticed, rather odd. If you scurry off and find it's not true I apologise, but it's been remarked more than once.

EDIT: Jeez, it's worse than I thought. Five of his sons were IVF and one of his daughters was by a surrogate.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexzhavoronkov/2022/07/27/elon-musk-and-other-billionaires-make-their-babies-via-ivf-and-surrogatesis-it-a-future-of-reproduction/#

EDIT 2: "...Did Musk use IVF to conceive his children? Yes, Musk used IVF to conceive five of his children with his first wife Justine, as were Musk's twins he had last year with his Neuralink employee, Shivon Zilis. His second and third children with Grimes were born through a surrogate...", see https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-children

EDIT 3: "...Musk has relied on reproductive technologies in welcoming eight of his ten children. His family tree is nearly as complex as his portfolio. Five of Musk’s six children with ex-wife Justine Wilson were conceived via IVF. Musk fathered his next two children, X and Y, with girlfriend Claire Boucher–the first via surrogate who was born just a month after Musk welcomed twins conceived via IVF with employee Shivon Zilis...", see https://www.thepublicdiscourse.com/2023/08/90327/

EDIT 4:

I don't want to go into this overmuch, but he has approx 12 children, a majority of which were either surrogacy or IVF. It might be that all of them were except his first (his first died of SIDS at less than six months).

I can't really go into this further without names and dates and I'm sure the mods would hate that, but look at the links below.

https://bing.com/search?q=Elon+Musk+children
https://people.com/parents/everything-to-know-about-elon-musks-family-kids/
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/does-elon-musk-have-12-kids-heres-what-we-know-about-the-tesla-ceos-big-sized-family/articleshow/111239566.cms
https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-61880709
https://pagesix.com/article/elon-musk-children/

EDIT 5:
...and famously, one of them is trans.

https://nitter.poast.org/CollinRugg/status/1815496170334204202#m

Got a "this website is suspect" warning for this link!

Does the original help? https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/1815496170334204202#m

No as "something went wrong". But don't worry about it, was just gonna make a pretty obvious joke, about Musko refusing to share a bathroom with his pride & joy.

mwadams said:

HYUFD said:

nico679 said:

Latest Morning Consult poll. Fieldwork 21 and 22 July .

Trump 47
Harris 45

Harris rises to Michael Dukakis levels.

Dukakis got 45.6% in 1988, so she may yet beat him, McGovern and Mondale at least as having led the Democrats to their biggest defeat in the last half century or so

Trump is polling a a couple of points lower than. McCain's peak for late July 2008.

It's almost like these comparisons are meaningless.

No good polls for Abraham Lincoln at this stage in 1860 or 1864.

Maybe because there were ZERO polls back then?

Though it IS true, that in the summer of 1864, Abe and just about everybody else though he was a goner. That is, until two things happened - both game changers.

> Democratic National Convention, August 29-31, nominated former top Union Gen. George B. McClellan, a "War Democrat" but saddled him with a "Peace Democrat" platform that was even more sympathetic to Jeff Davis, than Trump & Vance are today toward Vladimir Putin.

> Fall of Atlanta, September 2, which broke previous military stalemate, denied Confederacy key railroad hub, and kicked off Sherman's "March to the Sea" across Georgia.

from wiki

The fall of Atlanta was especially noteworthy for its political ramifications. In the 1864 election, former Union General George B. McClellan, a Democrat, ran against President Lincoln, although he repudiated his own party's platform, calling for an armistice with the Confederacy. The capture of Atlanta and Hood's burning of military facilities as he evacuated were extensively covered by Northern newspapers, significantly boosting Northern morale, and Lincoln was re-elected by a significant margin.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Atlanta

Our protectors are working hard to make sure we don't do things that they disapprove of. I feel so much better now I am being protected from myself

https://www.theguardian.com/society/article/2024/jul/21/labour-urged-to-follow-through-on-tories-promised-100m-gambling-levy

Andy_JS said:

Nate Silver urges us to be cautious about polling for the moment.

"Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
The rule of thumb is that it's a huge mess. Yes, we'll turn the model back on before then, but I think people should be reasonably cautious about the polling until early August once things (maybe?) settle down a bit.
Quote
Benjy Sarlin
@BenjySarlin
·
1h
. @NateSilver538 what’s your usual rule of thumb for determining how an overlapping change of candidate, convention bump, and assassination attempt affect short term vs medium term polling, I’m sure there’s a formula or poli sci paper somewhere right"

https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1815519460490379410

Pete Thiel's pollster cautious about Pete Thiel's candidate's prospects.

Still, the venture cap guys are used to having to write off high risk/return investments.

Interesting.

It's been a busy newsweek, but let's not miss this story:

China has demonstrated the first commercial-scale passive cooling of a high temperature nuclear reactor with a pebble bed module.

They intentionally turned off the cooling and the reactor cooled itself down, no problem.
https://x.com/cremieuxrecueil/status/1815520928056344669