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London Rising – The Pentagon and the Election – politicalbetting.com

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  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Good. That would be a terribly messy place to be if you were....
    Indeed. It might be so bad that an Irish band are about to entertain us for the next couple of hours….
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,282

    "everyone will have forgotten that they exist by the autumn"

    This is the same Conservative Party that was going to be reduced to zero seats? Or replaced as the Official Opposition?

    Leave it out...
    We survived.

    Like Rorke's Drift.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,795

    We survived.

    Like Rorke's Drift.
    Rorke's Drips.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,471

    If the Tories don't crack on with their leadership election over the summer, everyone will have forgotten that they exist by the autumn.

    What do they gain by delaying? The same handful of candidates will be installing phone lines, whether next week or in October.

    When I was younger, so much younger than today (sorry), I used to cut code for a living (you know the drill, Perform A while B=C and all that old guff) and a wizened colleague once said to me "implement in haste, repent at leisure".

    Why should the Conservatives rush to have a new leader and especially if they get the answer wrong? On July 5th, as the scale of the disaster was becoming apparent, thoughtful Tories were coming out with such platitudes as "we need to reflect on what happened and work out what went wrong and why" which, given it was the early hours, is about as good as it gets.

    Barely ten days on and there seems an inordinate rush to figure out what happened and why it happened instead of asking the better questions of what might have happened and why did it not.

    There will be different theories but all the Conservatives can do is carry out their own private post mortem (now) and public post mortem (the Party Conference).

    From the outside, the first issue is those who were part of the problem now want to be part of the solution. Those who sat round the Cabinet table and followed Sunak's (and Truss's and even Johnson's) collective leadership look silly when they come out and say what the Government of which they were a part did wrong. If they thought a particular path or policy was wrong, why didn't they argue against it and then resign on principle?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,795
    stodge said:

    When I was younger, so much younger than today (sorry), I used to cut code for a living (you know the drill, Perform A while B=C and all that old guff) and a wizened colleague once said to me "implement in haste, repent at leisure".

    Why should the Conservatives rush to have a new leader and especially if they get the answer wrong? On July 5th, as the scale of the disaster was becoming apparent, thoughtful Tories were coming out with such platitudes as "we need to reflect on what happened and work out what went wrong and why" which, given it was the early hours, is about as good as it gets.

    Barely ten days on and there seems an inordinate rush to figure out what happened and why it happened instead of asking the better questions of what might have happened and why did it not.

    There will be different theories but all the Conservatives can do is carry out their own private post mortem (now) and public post mortem (the Party Conference).

    From the outside, the first issue is those who were part of the problem now want to be part of the solution. Those who sat round the Cabinet table and followed Sunak's (and Truss's and even Johnson's) collective leadership look silly when they come out and say what the Government of which they were a part did wrong. If they thought a particular path or policy was wrong, why didn't they argue against it and then resign on principle?
    Quite. Kemi 'DON'T LEAK THIS' Badenoch has very little to show for her time in office. All very well raging against the machine now. Suella has more credibility in this regard.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,743
    edited July 2024
    Andy_JS said:

    "Why so few men take up the pen
    With publishing now such a female-dominated industry, it’s no surprise that there are so few men writing fiction
    By Paul Burke"

    https://thecritic.co.uk/issues/july-2024/why-so-few-men-take-up-the-pen/

    Because so few men READ fiction

    Including me. I read about 40 books a year and maybe 1 or 2 will be fiction
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,221
    Sandpit said:

    They were definitely never ending up on zero seats!
    Who had Leicester East down as the nominally 50th safest Tory seat for 2029 ?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    Leon said:

    Because so few men READ fiction

    Including me. I read about 40 books a year and maybe 1 or 2 will be fiction
    I used to read about 10 novels a year but these days it's more like 3 or 4. My favourite writers are Kazuo Ishiguro and Zadie Smith, but I haven't got round to reading their most recent novels yet — "Klara and the Sun" and "The Fraud". Because of the distractions of websites like PB, etc.
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 982
    Pulpstar said:

    Who had Leicester East down as the nominally 50th safest Tory seat for 2029 ?
    or Harrow East as the safest seat. Although Hindu's swinging to the Conservatives was widely reported on here. The political local knowledge on this sit e is unmatched.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,917

    Quite. Kemi 'DON'T LEAK THIS' Badenoch has very little to show for her time in office. All very well raging against the machine now. Suella has more credibility in this regard.
    Because she resigned once over Brexit, resigned a second time before she was sacked, and the third time was just sacked?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255
    edited July 2024
    Andy_JS said:

    I used to read about 10 novels a year but these days it's more like 3 or 4. My favourite writers are Kazuo Ishiguro and Zadie Smith, but I haven't got round to reading their most recent novels yet — "Klara and the Sun" and "The Fraud". Because of the distractions of websites like PB, etc.
    I read something over 100 books a year. About half of them fiction of all types... well almost all types. Currently working hrogh the back catalogues of Stefan Zweig and Laurie Lee as well as rereading all of STP's books in publication order.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,605

    Consider the people who backed our recent run of prime ministers.

    Denial is not just a river in Egypt. We have previously commented on the near delusional self belief in many top politicians - this probably extends to their immediate supporters.

    It’s worth considering, as well, that those close to Biden will be swept away if Harris becomes President. The first thing she will do is bring in her own people. So you are asking people to take the 50/50 possibility of losing theirs jobs and power and turn it into a 100% certainty.
    It was the same with Pelosi - her staff were propping her up for a long time, because that was the direction their self-interest pointed. Without her they were out of a job.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    edited July 2024
    Nunu5 said:

    or Harrow East as the safest seat. Although Hindu's swinging to the Conservatives was widely reported on here. The political local knowledge on this sit e is unmatched.
    I predicted the best 3 seats for the Tories would be Leicester East, Harrow East, and Harrow West. I was wrong about the last one. In fact Brent West was better for them.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,630
    One set all in the Men's Doubles!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,630

    We survived.

    Like Rorke's Drift.
    "TORIES, SIR! FOUSANDS OF 'EM!"
  • Chris said:

    Because she resigned once over Brexit, resigned a second time before she was sacked, and the third time was just sacked?
    She will soon catch up with Lord Falconer
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,661
    Andy_JS said:

    I used to read about 10 novels a year but these days it's more like 3 or 4. My favourite writers are Kazuo Ishiguro and Zadie Smith, but I haven't got round to reading their most recent novels yet — "Klara and the Sun" and "The Fraud". Because of the distractions of websites like PB, etc.
    I read novels on my commute. However, with WFH three days a week it takes a fair old while to get through a book - especially when they are close to 700 pages as with my current project. I did spend an hour or two reading earlier this afternoon in order to make progress, and it is an enjoyable book.

    You Can't Go Home Again by Thomas Wolfe.

    I have another 30 or so in my "to be read" shelf. Thankfully, all with fewer pages!
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,605

    There are quite a lot of books being published in the juvenile spy genre. The Alex Rider books by Anthony Horowitz and the Young James Bond books by Charlie Higson. There are also a lot of book series that are for both sexes but which have male protagonists from both the UK and US - The Gone series by Michael Grant, Artemis Fowl by Eoin Colfer and the Young Sherlock Holmes series by Andrew Lane. I have a 16 year old son and he has had no trouble finding plenty to read although he has now moved ontyo more adult books.
    Brandon Sanderson seems to be churning out books for this audience (young men looking for books that feature protagonists like them). My boys are hooked on them.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,206

    We survived.

    Like Rorke's Drift.
    More like Isandlwana...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,010

    If they are smart, they will install America's frst female President this week - and put Trump's Convention completely in the shade.
    They may as well install Hillary, she at least has more common touch than Harris.

    A Trump v Harris battle is exactly what he wants, a repeat of 2016 and an elitist coastal liberal with zero interest in the views of workers in the rustbelt
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,616
    edited July 2024

    In Abingdon, a local(ish) house builder proposed building an elevated roadway (sort of snaking around the site, with the houses elevated on pillars off it. The design was similar to some existing houses near the river.

    The idea was that when the area flooded, as it does every decade or so, water could flow around as it always does - your garden would get a bit damp, but your services, access etc would be fine.

    The design was rejected because it would have impacted local property values. The clowns at the council thought that such building “implied the area flooded”.
    That's more likely to be the Nimby clowns living next door - Council refusal, decision not to Appeal - surely?

    When I did mine it was amazing how many people suddenly became interested in the welfare of foxes.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,010

    This would be the Scotland where the Conservatives get a record low of 12.7% ?
    And held all but 1 seat
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,010
    Tres said:

    Also raises some questions about the competence of the Tory team that were campaigning against him.
    On what grounds? No other party were aware and given it was 20 years ago and he does not seem to have offended again but reformed himself I would have been uncomfortable making it an issue
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,661
    HYUFD said:

    And held all but 1 seat
    They didn’t lose any at all in Northern Ireland. Their best result by far.
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405
    HYUFD said:

    On what grounds? No other party were aware and given it was 20 years ago and he does not seem to have offended again but reformed himself I would have been uncomfortable making it an issue
    Daily Fail report says he got "a short prison term" implying there's no official record or they would know how long.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    Tory shares over 40%, (* => not won by Conservatives)

    1. Harrow East 53.3
    2. Richmond & Northallerton 47.5
    3. Stone, Great Wyrley & Penkridge 46.5
    4. Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner 45.4
    5. Hertsmere 44.7
    6. Rutland & Stamford 43.7
    7. Epping Forest 43.2
    8. Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland* 42.7
    9. Godalming & Ash 42.6
    10.Stockton West 41.9
    11.North East Cambridgeshire 41.5
    12.Tonbridge 40.8
    13.Mid Dorset & North Poole* 40.6
    14.Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk 40.5
    15.Gosport 40.3
    16.Keighley 40.3
    17.Kingswinford & South Staffordshire 40.3
    18.Arundel & South Downs 40.2
    19.Droitwich & Evesham 40.1
    20.Croydon South 40.0
  • TresTres Posts: 2,819
    HYUFD said:

    On what grounds? No other party were aware and given it was 20 years ago and he does not seem to have offended again but reformed himself I would have been uncomfortable making it an issue
    On the grounds they let an MP lose a seat to a guy convicted for beating a woman.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,257
    edited July 2024
    @stodge, I can't remember if I said "good article, @stodge", but if I didn't, it was a good article thank you.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    "Democrats in disarray over Biden: ‘We’re totally, totally screwed’" (£)

    https://www.ft.com/content/7104f221-da21-492b-be5f-2cb3bedefe6f
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,630

    They didn’t lose any at all in Northern Ireland. Their best result by far.
    553 votes! 0.1%!
  • https://archive.md/lVXvN

    Sunak held secret talks about Farage Red Wall deal

    The Tories are idiots.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,008
    edited July 2024
    stodge said:

    When I was younger, so much younger than today (sorry), I used to cut code for a living (you know the drill, Perform A while B=C and all that old guff) and a wizened colleague once said to me "implement in haste, repent at leisure".

    Why should the Conservatives rush to have a new leader and especially if they get the answer wrong? On July 5th, as the scale of the disaster was becoming apparent, thoughtful Tories were coming out with such platitudes as "we need to reflect on what happened and work out what went wrong and why" which, given it was the early hours, is about as good as it gets.

    Barely ten days on and there seems an inordinate rush to figure out what happened and why it happened instead of asking the better questions of what might have happened and why did it not.

    There will be different theories but all the Conservatives can do is carry out their own private post mortem (now) and public post mortem (the Party Conference).

    From the outside, the first issue is those who were part of the problem now want to be part of the solution. Those who sat round the Cabinet table and followed Sunak's (and Truss's and even Johnson's) collective leadership look silly when they come out and say what the Government of which they were a part did wrong. If they thought a particular path or policy was wrong, why didn't they argue against it and then resign on principle?
    There is more than one sort of problem. The nature of the Tory party is a problem. It used to be a workable coalition but now the rift between those who vote for it because 'One Nation' and those who vote for it because 'Stop the Boats Support Reform' is not bridgeable.

    The other problem is what makes an outstanding leader. Charisma (Boris) Application (May) Dogma (Truss) Mastery of detail (Sunak) are no good if you are not a good leader. This is about character and personality type most of all.

    Unless the MPs work this out (it can be done) and put two outstanding leaders to the members they are sunk. And they are sunk anyway until they decide which voters they have lost they want back and get it right.

    BTW I think there is a realistic prospect, though well short of certainty, that Starmer is the most outstanding leader qua leader as PM we have had since the 50s. The competition is Blair and Thatcher. Both, outstanding of course, but both succumbed to hubris. Starmer is less likely to. For the sake of our poor old country we can but hope.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,010
    edited July 2024
    Tres said:

    On the grounds they let an MP lose a seat to a guy convicted for beating a woman.
    So? I would welcome having a few MPs with criminal records who have gone straight since and turned their lives around and have some experience of the criminal justice system.

    It is not as if most of those in Parliament are saints anyway
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,257
    Leon said:

    Because so few men READ fiction

    Including me. I read about 40 books a year and maybe 1 or 2 will be fiction
    If I were honest, it would be about 20pa: more than one a month, less than one a week. If I'm WFH I go to a local shop for sit down and tea at lunchtime, so I just take the book and work thru it. Since my later-life switch from science-fiction to military history and politics and philosophy, it's very unlikely to be fiction these days and the fiction I do read tends to be legacy authors. I don't really have the time or wish to develop a younger-author habit.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,881
    For the several people here who have an interest in electric vehicles a very informative thread and linked article on batteries. Takeaways: production way more than demand; battery prices have halved in the past year; eVs in some markets are cheaper than ICEs now; Chinese battery manufacturers have the industry sewn up - probably too late for any new entrants.

    https://twitter.com/colinmckerrache/status/1810926635660488915
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,657

    NEW THREAD

  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,979

    I read something over 100 books a year. About half of them fiction of all types... well almost all types. Currently working hrogh the back catalogues of Stefan Zweig and Laurie Lee as well as rereading all of STP's books in publication order.
    Have been reading Muriel Spark's novels in sequence. Very spiky - keeps you on your toes. But even she's as nothing compared to Dame Ivy Compton Burnett whom I'm just beginning, well read three. An utterly original novelist who deserves to be revived.
This discussion has been closed.