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The Tory soap opera continues – politicalbetting.com

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  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    No, I voted Labour, unlike you!
    U voted for Tory Streeting.

    Hang your head in shame
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,011
    Adam Bienkov
    @AdamBienkov
    ·
    35m

    Becca Lyon from @savechildrenuk
    : "It's an outrage 440,000 families are denied vital support because of the two-child limit, a rise of over 30,000 since last year

    “The cruel two-child limit should be scrapped immediately to prevent families facing hardship and destitution".

    https://x.com/AdamBienkov/status/1811327732908720210
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,820
    edited July 2024

    Labour havent actually done anything yet except a few PRish positioning calls. It is way to early too say what is happening. Give it 6 months and then see how things are looking.

    Rachel Reeves is trying to talk us all in to gloom while the economic data behind her just isnt playing ball. I'd have more respect for her if she just stopped spinning crap and provided a balanced view.

    You've been in business all your life, AB.
    You know that when a new boss takes over a company, they get all the bad news out in public at the first opportunity. Why do you expect the public sector to be different from the private ?
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,116
    The struggle is real

    Families are 'desperately' downsizing so they can afford to keep children in private schools as Labour's tax raid looms, a leading estate agency boss has said.

    Of course I would trust an Estate Agent, nothing to do with drumming up work. Makes a good header though.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/parents-downsizing-so-they-can-afford-labour-s-school-fee-hike/ar-BB1pLebh?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=7d984031a2564ccdbc48d3adad5e5fc0&ei=67
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 981

    Prediction, imho while the Tory party view the audience of GB News as their key demographic to win over then they will not form a government.

    They won't form a government anyway. It's about competence. Putting people mortgage at risk won't be forgiven or forgotten easily
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,126
    Nigelb said:

    I thought the Greens opposed nuclear ?
    Green party policy is anti-nuclear. Plenty of prominent Greens have been in favour. Some Greens have been equivocal, pointing out that nuclear is just too slow to build - something the small modular reactors might be better at.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    It took the Labour party to create the NHS in defiance of Tory wishes, it just takes Wes and the Labour Party to destroy it with their new Tory supporters like Sunil cheering on.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,149
    boulay said:

    Not sure about reg plates for cyclists as such but when I lived in Switzerland you had to buy a little metal sticker for your bike each year which gave it a registration number that you downloaded to a database in case it was found etc but more importantly the cost of the sticker paid for an insurance policy.

    So all cyclists were insured for accidents on their bikes for damage to anyone or anything else which was a good thing. Wasn’t expensive, about £30 per year I think I recall.
    This may be an FTP (not sure).

    Switzerland started phasing out their £30 per annum insurance and decals from 2010/12 ish, because they assessed that the costs heavily outweighed any benefits.

    We have a far better system in the UK, where for most people (not sure of exact number) 3rd Party insurance for cycling comes free with House Contents Insurance for the whole household. There has been quite a bit of fairly low profile social media campaigning pointing it out, and a lot of trolls have dropped this particular "but insurance..." red herring from their portfolio. Here is one of the charts I have been using for my daily photo.


    I would love to see some formal research done, because goons like Lord Hogan-Howe were wasting House of Lords type stirring this up as recently as last month.

    My tweet:
    https://x.com/mattwardman/status/1628327909906608129

  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,424

    The rules have changed, I think, since I was refereeing so I am on slightly dodgy ground here, but in my day it would not have been a penalty because there was no apparent intent and it therefore could not have been a 'technical offence' i.e., a free kick. It could have been a non-technical offence, namely dangerous play. That would have meant an indirect free-kick. I have rarely seen an indirect free-kick given to the attacking team inside the penalty area, but it is not unknown. You tend to remember the incidents because they usually produce the oddity of most of the outfield players standing on the goal line. (It's a rare instance of players being able to stand less than ten yards from the ball while the kick is being taken if the offence happened closer than ten yards from from the goal-line. Players must stand ten yards OR on the goal-line, even if that is less - so they obviously cram the goal.)

    I think the VAR team got it wrong. In my opinion it was simply an accidental collision arising from the genuine attempts of both players to play the ball. You could reasonably argue that it was possibly dangerous play, but VAR has no power to intervene for such an offence, and if the ref didn't give it, they had no basis for intervention. There was no intent, so no foul on that basis, and since it was a legitimate and normal attempt to play the ball I can't see why any penalty was given. I wouldn't have given a foul for that no matter where it was on the field of play, and I don't think many refs would.

    It was just a mistake.
    I think the easiest test is to reverse the teams - if that had been given against England we would be up in arms for years.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,766
    Nigelb said:

    You've been in business all your life, AB.
    You know that when a new boss takes over a company, they get all the bad news out in public at the first opportunity. Why do you expect the public sector to be different from the private ?
    Yes of course, and like most organisations where this happens the workforce think the CEO is a lying bastard and is simply softening us up for a shafting.

    Reeves has been spouting twaddle for the last week and rather than convince me at any rate. I now think she's a bit shifty, The UK undoubtedly has problems but its a mixed picture. Growth, inflation looking better than expected public finances a mess. But she cant give a balanced view because she needs to tax the arse of everyone rather than cut spending.

    Gordon Brown in a dress I fear.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,948

    I see Kendall is this morning on about how terrible child poverty is. But planning not to do anything about the two child cap.

    I can't see how they keep this up for five years.
    The danger for Sir Keir is that he ends up like Francois Hollande. Alienates his natural (leftish) supporters by not delivering for them while the more transactional supporters drift off. To govern is to choose. Avoid doing that and you can land in big political trouble.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,116
    MattW said:

    This may be an FTP (not sure).

    Switzerland started phasing out their £30 per annum insurance and decals from 2010/12 ish, because they assessed that the costs heavily outweighed any benefits.

    We have a far better system in the UK, where for most people (not sure of exact number) 3rd Party insurance for cycling comes free with House Contents Insurance for the whole household. There has been quite a bit of fairly low profile social media campaigning pointing it out, and a lot of trolls have dropped this particular "but insurance..." red herring from their portfolio. Here is one of the charts I have been using for my daily photo.


    I would love to see some formal research done, because goons like Lord Hogan-Howe were wasting House of Lords type stirring this up as recently as last month.

    My tweet:
    https://x.com/mattwardman/status/1628327909906608129

    You also get cover if you join a group like Cycling UK. I am a member.

    I do think the insurance for cyclists point is a good one and if cyclist haters on social media ranting that we need insurance raises awareness that most of us already have it and also gets cyclists to check their position on it all well and good.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,906

    People talk about negative equity as if its a problem for life.

    In reality to be in negative equity you need to have:

    1) Bought pretty much at the top of the market
    2) Put down a very minimal deposit
    3) Not reduced the outstanding mortgage amount by repayment

    Negative equity results from a combination of greed, stupidity and bad luck.
    And negative equity is only an issue if you want to sell. Why not just stay put in the house you have bought?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,236
    Taz said:

    You also get cover if you join a group like Cycling UK. I am a member.

    I do think the insurance for cyclists point is a good one and if cyclist haters on social media ranting that we need insurance raises awareness that most of us already have it and also gets cyclists to check their position on it all well and good.
    I have no dog in this fight per se as I both ride a bike and drive a car. One question I would ask is what is the liability limit on most people's house and contents insurance? Will it be sufficient to cover for the claims resulting from injuring someone else?

    I have to have public liability for various public facing things I do including, for example, running events like open days or meetings. Generally this is in the low hundreds of pounds a year premium. How does this compare with the average person's house and contents insurance?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,000

    It took the Labour party to create the NHS in defiance of Tory wishes, it just takes Wes and the Labour Party to destroy it with their new Tory supporters like Sunil cheering on.

    Why do you object to the NHS helping people get back to work? And how does helping people get back to work somehow destroy the NHS?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    They are going to lose House, Senate and WH at this rate.
    That’s what’s worrying those in marginal House, Senate, and local seats.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,149
    edited July 2024
    Taz said:

    You also get cover if you join a group like Cycling UK. I am a member.

    I do think the insurance for cyclists point is a good one and if cyclist haters on social media ranting that we need insurance raises awareness that most of us already have it and also gets cyclists to check their position on it all well and good.
    Correct. I get it as a perk of my bank account too - for travel in Europe iirc.

    And there's also at least one trade union that has it as a standard benefit iirc.

    In my more mischievous moments I want cycling insurance to be a compulsory inclusion in all motor insurance policies, just to annoy Howard Cox. :wink:
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,820
    Nigelb said:

    Fresh from the meeting with Putin in Moscow.

    Trump will meet with Hungary's Viktor Orban in Florida on Thursday, per sources.
    https://x.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1811232720988570058

    Viktor Orbán’s trip to Moscow in breach of EU treaties, legal service says

    Hungarian PM’s freelance diplomacy sparked condemnation from European and Nato allies
    https://www.ft.com/content/81b1ccc4-e1af-4e34-a551-a05faad1f6e1
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,000

    I think the easiest test is to reverse the teams - if that had been given against England we would be up in arms for years.
    Of course. And when England play Netherlands in a World Cup knockout match in 2042 with Harry Kane as England manager it will be sweet revenge for them. Swings and roundabouts.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,116

    I have no dog in this fight per se as I both ride a bike and drive a car. One question I would ask is what is the liability limit on most people's house and contents insurance? Will it be sufficient to cover for the claims resulting from injuring someone else?

    I have to have public liability for various public facing things I do including, for example, running events like open days or meetings. Generally this is in the low hundreds of pounds a year premium. How does this compare with the average person's house and contents insurance?
    I am pretty sure the one I get is £100,000 which should be adequate. But it is not house and contents related.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,149
    edited July 2024

    I have no dog in this fight per se as I both ride a bike and drive a car. One question I would ask is what is the liability limit on most people's house and contents insurance? Will it be sufficient to cover for the claims resulting from injuring someone else?

    I have to have public liability for various public facing things I do including, for example, running events like open days or meetings. Generally this is in the low hundreds of pounds a year premium. How does this compare with the average person's house and contents insurance?
    The figures relevant to 3rd Party Liability are in my table for some of the policies, but it depends on the activity and would be for Personal liability, not corporate or events etc. Though terms vary between policies, and would be detailed in the booklet.

    There would also be exclusions around damage caused whilst doing a dangerous sport etc.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,562

    I think the easiest test is to reverse the teams - if that had been given against England we would be up in arms for years.
    It really depends why it happens though.

    Last night's ref controlled the game well, although he made a few mistakes (but not the penalty.) I seethe still over the Brazilian ref who took the England/France game in Qatar. He gave every marginal decision to France, so you knew he was crooked.

    Mistakes you can live with, dishonesty should never be forgotten or forgiven.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,378
    HYUFD said:

    No they lost so badly because of Truss, it was her budget disaster and the consequent surge in interest rates and mortgage repayments that collapsed the Tories to around 20%. Under Boris even after partygate the Conservatives were still around 30%. Hence Truss lost her seat.

    Yes Reform gained from all parties but most voted Conservative last time, indeed Yougov has 25% of 2019 Conservative voters voting Reform in 2024 but just 3% of 2019 Labour voters voting Reform and 2% of 2019 LD voters voting Reform
    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49978-how-britain-voted-in-the-2024-general-election
    I disagree. You can't blame it all on Truss. It was an ongoing disaster. And why did Truss happen? Truss wouldn't have been an event if not for Boris. It is Boris that caused the scenario that allowed for the Truss disaster. It all goes back to Boris and Brexit. Yes the Tories would still have lost, just because, but he was the catalyst that started off the big decline.

    Re the percentage you quote, these are misleading. The Tories dropped their vote from 2019 to 2024. They had to go somewhere. But these aren't Tories these are the floaters that when a party is doing well are picked up (Tories in 2019) and are lost when they are doing badly (Tories 2024). They don't belong to the Tories, they belong to whoever is popular at the time, or picking up the none of the other vote.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,000
    Nigelb said:

    I'm still waiting for all those who argues a decade or so back that it was futile to subsidise renewables, as they'd never be economic, to admit that they've been proved wrong.
    The obvious economic path for the UK was surely to be a world leader in green tech. Instead we got a decade of focusing on Brexit.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,377

    It took the Labour party to create the NHS in defiance of Tory wishes, it just takes Wes and the Labour Party to destroy it with their new Tory supporters like Sunil cheering on.

    Why should you care about Labour now? You turned your back on it, and joined the Green Tories.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,732
    Taz said:

    The struggle is real

    Families are 'desperately' downsizing so they can afford to keep children in private schools as Labour's tax raid looms, a leading estate agency boss has said.

    Of course I would trust an Estate Agent, nothing to do with drumming up work. Makes a good header though.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/parents-downsizing-so-they-can-afford-labour-s-school-fee-hike/ar-BB1pLebh?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=7d984031a2564ccdbc48d3adad5e5fc0&ei=67

    If this is a genuine phenomenon then surely downsizing is more to do with mortgage costs than school fees. It would have to be a major downsize too to justify the moving and stamp duty costs.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,478
    Foxy said:

    If this is a genuine phenomenon then surely downsizing is more to do with mortgage costs than school fees. It would have to be a major downsize too to justify the moving and stamp duty costs.
    Yep - it's the typical story that only works for 30 seconds until the fundamental flaws (£x000 in stamp duty, £y000 in moving costs) make the story completely implausible.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,787

    Green party policy is anti-nuclear. Plenty of prominent Greens have been in favour. Some Greens have been equivocal, pointing out that nuclear is just too slow to build - something the small modular reactors might be better at.
    I've heard Greens especially opposing the small modular reactors because it will be hard to stop them.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,126
    Nigelb said:

    I'm still waiting for all those who argues a decade or so back that it was futile to subsidise renewables, as they'd never be economic, to admit that they've been proved wrong.
    I've tried to find out how long Hinkley Point C has been under construction, and I've found three different construction start dates, in 2016, 2017 and 2018.

    It's no wonder that people are able to avoid admitting mistakes, when the web provides such a plethora of facts to choose from.
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 981
    kjh said:

    I disagree. You can't blame it all on Truss. It was an ongoing disaster. And why did Truss happen? Truss wouldn't have been an event if not for Boris. It is Boris that caused the scenario that allowed for the Truss disaster. It all goes back to Boris and Brexit. Yes the Tories would still have lost, just because, but he was the catalyst that started off the big decline.

    Re the percentage you quote, these are misleading. The Tories dropped their vote from 2019 to 2024. They had to go somewhere. But these aren't Tories these are the floaters that when a party is doing well are picked up (Tories in 2019) and are lost when they are doing badly (Tories 2024). They don't belong to the Tories, they belong to whoever is popular at the time, or picking up the none of the other vote.
    Why didn't these floating voters go to Labour?
  • Mogg appearing in new Reality TV programme. Bless him!
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    edited July 2024
    On the big debate of the day.

    1. It is a penalty under the laws of the game (it's a certain foul anywhere else on the pitch).
    2. I would have been furious had it been given against England.
    3. Kane probably wasn't put off by the tackle.

    All of these things can be, and are, true simultaneously.

    One way I have learned to reconcile these matters is that if you allow a striker into your penalty area and attempt to tackle him, you are risking a penalty, pure and simple. If you don't want to concede a penalty don't let him breach your 18-yard box.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,149
    Final FPT.

    Do you have a linky for that last claim?
    Did @MrBedfordshire back this claim up, of someone pruning a TPO Tree being bankrupted after being pursued under Proceeds of Crime law?

    I'd really like to see it, as I have never seen POCA used wrt TPO trees, and it is in my area of interest. Getting permission to prune is not difficult, and is free, and we treat damaging TPO trees as an attack on the system of maintaining the public environment, which is what it is.

    The closest I am aware of was a millionaire scrote on Sandbanks who added £40k to the value of his property by destroying two TPO trees.

    He got off lightly: all he got done for was £2700 fine, £15500 court costs, and the £40k profits he had made by illegally destroying the trees. That fine could have been £25k.

    https://www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/17933907.millionaire-chopped-protected-trees-outside-1-2m-sandbanks-home-fined-60k/
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    "Bill Streeting was a huge Tory big influence on me" Says Wes

    Give it a rest.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,203

    I've tried to find out how long Hinkley Point C has been under construction, and I've found three different construction start dates, in 2016, 2017 and 2018.

    It's no wonder that people are able to avoid admitting mistakes, when the web provides such a plethora of facts to choose from.
    The bigger issue is when it will get finished, at what cost, whether it works - and how it is dealing with the failure to develop the fish-scarer that was one of the planning requirements.

    Half the Board of EDF resigning before the decision to proceed was taken should have sounded alarm bells with government. But the last government was sat so snugly in nuclear's lower intestine. Hopefully this government is significantly more curious about value for money.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,940
    edited July 2024
    Foxy said:

    If this is a genuine phenomenon then surely downsizing is more to do with mortgage costs than school fees. It would have to be a major downsize too to justify the moving and stamp duty costs.
    More efficient use of the housing stock increasing supply from nothing. 4D chess from Labour. Their genius is almost frightening.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,126

    I've heard Greens especially opposing the small modular reactors because it will be hard to stop them.
    Some Greens, doubtless, but it's irksome to have a whole group labelled with a view due to individual members of the group having that view.
  • Part of the programme will be him filmed at home with his family. Fantastic!
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,149
    edited July 2024

    The obvious economic path for the UK was surely to be a world leader in green tech. Instead we got a decade of focusing on Brexit.
    Industrial Strategies are not allowed to exist in Toryland.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    .

    I've heard Greens especially opposing the small modular reactors because it will be hard to stop them.
    Imagine a small, safe, and cheap source of huge amounts of energy that could be run out of a production line, generating both clean power for the domestic market and £billions in exports. What a horrible problem to have, imagine how much economic growth could be driven by such technology.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    James Timpson's idea to incentivise employers to hire ex-offenders is genius. And he has the experience and expertise in such matters. This could be Sir Keir's key appointment.

    (Yes, I know, I know.)
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    Labour 411 seats
    Green Tories 4 seats
    Fake news.

    Labour 412 seats.
  • I've heard Greens especially opposing the small modular reactors because it will be hard to stop them.
    Hard to start them, more like. Despite all the hype, I've yet to see any economic or environmental benefits for SMRs or indeed any concrete proposals for their installation. As far as I can see, while they, like nuclear fusion, may become useful energy sources in the long-term future, in the meantime they are at best an irrelevance and, at worst, a distraction from the more urgent need to generate clean electricity.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,149
    Eabhal said:

    More efficient use of the housing stock increasing supply from nothing. 4D chess from Labour. Their genius is almost frightening.
    4D chess would be doing various juggles to increase occupation density in the millions of owner occupied houses with 2 or more spare bedrooms.

    There are lots of options. Rebalancing costs whilst alive vs IHT so that oldsters rattling around in 4 and 5 bed houses were incentivised to downsize earlier rather than wait until they pop their clogs for the IHT exemption would be a start for one track.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    One would have hoped that Boris lover Owls would have left the stage after the SKS Fans were vindicated. But no. He drones on and on regardless.

    What happened to @Mexicanpete ? Is he still predicting a 1992-style Tory shock win with the certainty of the tides on here every bloody night?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,126

    James Timpson's idea to incentivise employers to hire ex-offenders is genius. And he has the experience and expertise in such matters. This could be Sir Keir's key appointment.

    (Yes, I know, I know.)

    It's going to be interesting to see how these non-MP ministerial appointments work out.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,906

    One would have hoped that Boris lover Owls would have left the stage after the SKS Fans were vindicated. But no. He drones on and on regardless.

    What happened to @Mexicanpete ? Is he still predicting a 1992-style Tory shock win with the certainty of the tides on here every bloody night?

    And where is MoonRabbit?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,000
    MattW said:

    Industrial Strategies are not allowed to exist in Toryland.
    But why? Is this some throwback to failed ones in the 70s (before my time). If so I'd suggest there is a big difference between protecting old industries and building new ones.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    It's going to be interesting to see how these non-MP ministerial appointments work out.
    Indeed, the Goats don't have a great track record, it must be said. I like the cut of Timpson's gib though. He seems like a man with a big idea.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,236
    edited July 2024
    MattW said:

    Final FPT.

    Did @MrBedfordshire back this claim up, of someone pruning a TPO Tree being bankrupted after being pursued under Proceeds of Crime law?

    I'd really like to see it, as I have never seen POCA used wrt TPO trees, and it is in my area of interest. Getting permission to prune is not difficult, and is free, and we treat damaging TPO trees as an attack on the system of maintaining the public environment, which is what it is.

    The closest I am aware of was a millionaire scrote on Sandbanks who added £40k to the value of his property by destroying two TPO trees.

    He got off lightly: all he got done for was £2700 fine, £15500 court costs, and the £40k profits he had made by illegally destroying the trees. That fine could have been £25k.

    https://www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/17933907.millionaire-chopped-protected-trees-outside-1-2m-sandbanks-home-fined-60k/
    Yes he posted the link https://www.timms-law.com/commercial-and-property-homeowner-fined-for-cutting-back-tree/

    The interesting point here is not the amount but the fact that, as @MrBedfordshire mentioned, the council used POCA in a separate court case after the criminal trial and fine to seize further monies. I would suggest it sets a very dangerous precedent, whatever you might think about the actual case. Using this logic almost anything might be considered as falling under the scope of POCA.

    Edit - it also seems very dodgy to me that they waited until 3 years after the original trial before pursuing him under POCA.
  • Sandpit said:

    .

    Imagine a small, safe, and cheap source of huge amounts of energy that could be run out of a production line, generating both clean power for the domestic market and £billions in exports. What a horrible problem to have, imagine how much economic growth could be driven by such technology.
    And then you woke up.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,236

    And then you woke up.
    And yet that is what Rolls Royce are working on right now.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,867
    edited July 2024
    If anyone really thinks the Tory party will have the sense not to elect Badenoch leader, they can make a killing by betting against her.

    But does anyone believe that?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    I know this is a controversial take but don’t have kids if you cannot afford them.
    A lot of people could when they had them. Not so much, now.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,425

    James Timpson's idea to incentivise employers to hire ex-offenders is genius. And he has the experience and expertise in such matters. This could be Sir Keir's key appointment.

    (Yes, I know, I know.)

    But can he cut recidivism?
  • Me and other Greens have been arguing for Britain to invest in new technology for decades, and people have told us we shouldn't do anything until China does.

    Now China has done it and it's pretty much too late for Britain to take a lead on any of the relevant technology, because Britain let other countries get there first.

    Just in the last year or two the opportunity to take a lead on small modular nuclear reactors has slipped through Britain's fingers. Unless Labour manage to dramatically turn this around, Britain will be paying other countries for the green energy technology they could have profited from.

    So don't lecture me about green watermelons, thank you very much.
    Sorry but that's just 100% categorically untrue in every way.

    image

    The UK has taken a lead on green technologies which is why China investing in renewables to cut its coal power down to 53% is about a decade and a bit behind the UK. The UK gets a far, far larger proportion of its power from clean power than China does. The UK has never been waiting for China.

    No thanks to the Greens who consistently oppose nuclear and even wind power for power generation.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,811

    Rather late on this, but does anyone else not give two figs for poor old Ronald Koeman's complaints about VAR? If VAR had been in use in 1993 he'd have been red carded and seen England awarded a penalty.

    England has endured more than its share of poor decisions over the years. The one you mention, the Hand of God goal, Lampard's goal disallowed, and so on. This time one went our way. We'll take it.

    And before anyone mentions Russian linesmen, remember the second German goal was dodgy too.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,425
    This thread should be read by everyone who thinks Biden has done a good job on Ukraine:

    https://x.com/mattlightcrim/status/1811148681229255031

    Having recently spent a few weeks in Poland and Estonia, I formed the impression that the Russian invasion of Ukraine has transformed neighbouring countries in ways that US and western governments completely fail to grasp. Two years of war have radically reshaped expectations.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,384

    James Timpson's idea to incentivise employers to hire ex-offenders is genius. And he has the experience and expertise in such matters. This could be Sir Keir's key appointment.

    (Yes, I know, I know.)

    Many years ago, when I was MD of a small business I was asked to consider employing someone who had been, especially as a pharmacy student, incredibly stupid with addictive drugs. I was all for it, but my colleague, who would have to work closely with the chap, was dead against it.
    I sometimes wonder how everything would have turned out if my colleague had been a bit more ‘forgiving’.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,811
    Nigelb said:

    I don't think that's true.
    The influence of China on global prices for both solar panels and batteries is immense. If we rely on increasing amounts of wind power, it will be partly thanks to cheap storage - and with the rate battery prices are falling, that's likely to be the dominant storage technology.

    China massively subsidised its renewable industries entirely out of calculated self-interest, but that doesn't mean that won't indirectly benefit the rest of the world.
    China subsidised its industries out of self-interest. America subsidises its industries out of self-interest. Britain is run by naive idiots who think everyone else is playing straight Adam Smith rules, and has been since at least the 1980s.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,787

    Hard to start them, more like. Despite all the hype, I've yet to see any economic or environmental benefits for SMRs or indeed any concrete proposals for their installation. As far as I can see, while they, like nuclear fusion, may become useful energy sources in the long-term future, in the meantime they are at best an irrelevance and, at worst, a distraction from the more urgent need to generate clean electricity.
    The opposition to them is interesting - quite a bit of cross over with the permanent officials preventing tidal ponds. Big Nuclear really doesn't like them.

    The advantages of the small reactors are

    1) Type certification - once you have the design certified, no amusing decade long investigations of the individual designs.
    2) Experience - we have companies making and installing small reactors now. Submarines. The SMRs are a slightly bigger and more powerful version of those. Basically the size of the reactors the Americans use in their aircraft carriers. Which are derived from their submarine reactors. And there is a lot of joint design work on US/UK reactors.
    3) Installation/Scaling - instead of having decades of construction, the individual SMRs can be trucked to the site (probably old nuclear plant) and individually brought on line.
  • Nigelb said:

    I'm still waiting for all those who argues a decade or so back that it was futile to subsidise renewables, as they'd never be economic, to admit that they've been proved wrong.
    They're never going to, but those of us who've been strongly advocating renewables have got our wish, the UK is far down the path of renewables. A genuine world leader and China is following us, not in the lead.

    No thanks to Greens who oppose investment in renewables.
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,508
    eek said:

    Transferrable mortgages were very much a thing in Northern Ireland when the Irish HPC impacted them - it wasn't a problem..
    They still are a thing (usually referred to as portable mortgages) - prices are still slightly below the 2007 peak. Pretty much every lender who operates in the NI market will offer them, with very few restrictions on acceptance or on increasing the amount borrowed.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,787

    One would have hoped that Boris lover Owls would have left the stage after the SKS Fans were vindicated. But no. He drones on and on regardless.

    What happened to @Mexicanpete ? Is he still predicting a 1992-style Tory shock win with the certainty of the tides on here every bloody night?

    He's living in the timeline where Sunak got a 20 seat majority.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,384

    England has endured more than its share of poor decisions over the years. The one you mention, the Hand of God goal, Lampard's goal disallowed, and so on. This time one went our way. We'll take it.

    And before anyone mentions Russian linesmen, remember the second German goal was dodgy too.
    As I’ve mentioned upthread, I’m no expert on football, but ‘sin-binning’ does seem to have advantages.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,480
    edited July 2024
    Chris said:

    If anyone really thinks the Tory party will have the sense not to elect Badenoch leader, they can make a killing by betting against her.

    But does anyone believe that?

    Well the Conservative members might vote for Braverman over her granted.

    However it is not impossible Tory MPs only put say Tugendhat and Cleverly in the last 2 to members
  • And yet that is what Rolls Royce are working on right now.
    People are working on all sorts of things. This does not mean they are automatically going to solve all our problems or even have much chance of becoming commercially practicable within a useful time frame.

    There is an urgent need to decarbonise our electricity production, and we already know how to do it: through a combination of wind, solar, hydroelectric and traditional nuclear generation combined with storage and demand management. These are what we need to focus on. We simply don't have time left to rely on the pie-in-the-sky stuff.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,787

    This thread should be read by everyone who thinks Biden has done a good job on Ukraine:

    https://x.com/mattlightcrim/status/1811148681229255031

    Having recently spent a few weeks in Poland and Estonia, I formed the impression that the Russian invasion of Ukraine has transformed neighbouring countries in ways that US and western governments completely fail to grasp. Two years of war have radically reshaped expectations.

    The Poles I know (mostly liberal) are absolute in their support for a huge army and airforce. A specific mention is that Poland should ally with neighbouring countries in this, so that the Eastern Europe runs the defence policy of the EU - specifically that the Germans and French need to be relegated (at least) to equal partners. In turn this (they say) should mean that the foreign policy of the EU stops being run by Germany.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,867
    HYUFD said:

    Well the Conservative members might vote for Braverman over her granted.
    That says it all.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    HYUFD said:

    Well the Conservative members might vote for Braverman over her granted.

    However it is not impossible Tory MPs only put say Tugendhat and Cleverly in the last 2 to members
    That would be a smart move if the PCP can wangle it. Kemi and Suella are both clearly useless, and this schoolgirl-style bitching between them is both boring and deeply unedifying.
  • People are working on all sorts of things. This does not mean they are automatically going to solve all our problems or even have much chance of becoming commercially practicable within a useful time frame.

    There is an urgent need to decarbonise our electricity production, and we already know how to do it: through a combination of wind, solar, hydroelectric and traditional nuclear generation combined with storage and demand management. These are what we need to focus on. We simply don't have time left to rely on the pie-in-the-sky stuff.
    And we're already doing it.

    The UK has already eliminated coal.

    The UK is well down the path to eliminating gas too now.

    It'll take time to finish the job, and we need to invest especially in pylons and have the rollout of batteries/EVs continue (which are becoming cheaper year on year) but we're doing the right thing already and need to just keep calm and carry on with it.

    And encourage the likes of China to belatedly catch up with us. Which they're not doing yet.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,236
    edited July 2024

    People are working on all sorts of things. This does not mean they are automatically going to solve all our problems or even have much chance of becoming commercially practicable within a useful time frame.

    There is an urgent need to decarbonise our electricity production, and we already know how to do it: through a combination of wind, solar, hydroelectric and traditional nuclear generation combined with storage and demand management. These are what we need to focus on. We simply don't have time left to rely on the pie-in-the-sky stuff.
    1 Thinking we can get 100% of our energy supply 100% reliably 100% of the time from wind, solar, hydroelectric and traditional nuclear generation is pie in the sky.
    2. It is actually possible for a country to pursue more than one possible solution to a problem at the same time. Indeed that is what we have been doing for the last few decades. The trouble is that vested interest have meant we have ignored some of the important contributors (tidal power, small nuclear) in favour of the others (wind, solar and big nuclear).

    We should be doing all this stuff simultaneously rather than pursuing your pie in the sky ideas.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,126

    Sorry but that's just 100% categorically untrue in every way.

    image

    The UK has taken a lead on green technologies which is why China investing in renewables to cut its coal power down to 53% is about a decade and a bit behind the UK. The UK gets a far, far larger proportion of its power from clean power than China does. The UK has never been waiting for China.

    No thanks to the Greens who consistently oppose nuclear and even wind power for power generation.
    You have no right to tell me that I'm a liar. Just because a majority of Green Party members are anti-nuclear, doesn't mean there haven't always been a strong minority willing to use the technology, or that Greens in general haven't advocated for investment in new technology.

    How fucking dare you say that what I say about my own views is 100% untrue? What a miserable little shit you are.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,480
    kjh said:

    I disagree. You can't blame it all on Truss. It was an ongoing disaster. And why did Truss happen? Truss wouldn't have been an event if not for Boris. It is Boris that caused the scenario that allowed for the Truss disaster. It all goes back to Boris and Brexit. Yes the Tories would still have lost, just because, but he was the catalyst that started off the big decline.

    Re the percentage you quote, these are misleading. The Tories dropped their vote from 2019 to 2024. They had to go somewhere. But these aren't Tories these are the floaters that when a party is doing well are picked up (Tories in 2019) and are lost when they are doing badly (Tories 2024). They don't belong to the Tories, they belong to whoever is popular at the time, or picking up the none of the other vote.
    Had Boris remained PM Truss would never have become PM, Sunak would have stayed Chancellor not Kwarteng and the Conservatives would probably have got 30-35% on 4th July and over 200 seats.

    The fact the vast majority of the Reform vote came from the Tories shows they are mainly rightwingers, certainly on social issues
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,940

    I know this is a controversial take but don’t have kids if you cannot afford them.
    Great, but that doesn't help the kid growing up in poverty who will likely end up costing the state much more than the savings from the two-child limit.

    It's a bit like early release and employment for violent criminals. Feels wrong, but it's right. We need a government which can take a step back from a Daily Mail headline.

    (Also - from what we can see from the nosediving TFR, very few couples consider kids affordable at the moment.)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Big news - the first F-16 has been delivered to Ukraine, and they should be operational later in the summer.

    https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1811085407486091410
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,149
    edited July 2024

    Yes he posted the link https://www.timms-law.com/commercial-and-property-homeowner-fined-for-cutting-back-tree/

    The interesting point here is not the amount but the fact that, as @MrBedfordshire mentioned, the council used POCA in a separate court case after the criminal trial and fine to seize further monies. I would suggest it sets a very dangerous precedent, whatever you might think about the actual case. Using this logic almost anything might be considered as falling under the scope of POCA.

    Edit - it also seems very dodgy to me that they waited until 3 years after the original trial before pursuing him under POCA.
    I think that's appropriate, but probably inadequate.

    This is a rich individual cynically breaking the law because he thinks he's too important to need to obey it. For me it's in the same category as a developer who burns down a listed building because he doesn't want it there in his way.

    But I think it needs a heavier punishment than just depriving him of his illegal profits; that's not deterrent enough.

    I think the guy should have had a prison sentence as well, pour encourager les autres and deterring anyone else from doing it.

    The important point on POCA here is that it needs to be appropriately applied, which is a matter of checks and balances being correct.

    Reflecting, I can think of a similar case reported in2023 where the landowner went to jail. There was a case near Leominster where a farmer destroyed 70 trees in an SSI and seriously damaged a long stretch of the River Legg.

    He went to prison for 12 months, and was made to pay £1.2m. Repeat offender. At root he thinks it's HIS environment, when in reality it is OURS.

    For these types of criminals, imo it's only jail that deters, because they think they are upstanding citizens.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11996319/Farmer-hired-diggers-illegally-rip-trees-bank-River-Lugg-jailed-12-months.html
  • This thread should be read by everyone who thinks Biden has done a good job on Ukraine:

    https://x.com/mattlightcrim/status/1811148681229255031

    Having recently spent a few weeks in Poland and Estonia, I formed the impression that the Russian invasion of Ukraine has transformed neighbouring countries in ways that US and western governments completely fail to grasp. Two years of war have radically reshaped expectations.

    Nothing in that thread changes the view that Biden has done a good job on Ukraine, constrained by Trump and his supporters like MTG's opposition to sending aid to Ukraine.

    The Trump/MTG inspired shutdown of aid for months thanks to the GOP Congressional blockage is an utter disgrace that set Ukraine back. That the sane elements of the GOP eventually broke with Trump/MTG and supported Biden is to their credit and gives hope for a post-Trump future for the GOP.

    Everyone who supports Ukraine should definitely be hoping Trump is trounced in November and that the likes of MTG are setback too.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,157

    You need to understand that dogma is at the root of breaking the NHS and Streeting not only knows this but is addressing it directly and for the NHS to have a future he needs to succeed
    But also, it's why getting healthcare right matters.

    We've got to the point where waiting lists are a meaningful drag on the economy, and some spending in the right places will pay back pretty quickly.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,377
    edited July 2024

    Fake news.

    Labour 412 seats.
    411 excluding speaker Hoyle!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    This thread should be read by everyone who thinks Biden has done a good job on Ukraine:

    https://x.com/mattlightcrim/status/1811148681229255031

    Having recently spent a few weeks in Poland and Estonia, I formed the impression that the Russian invasion of Ukraine has transformed neighbouring countries in ways that US and western governments completely fail to grasp. Two years of war have radically reshaped expectations.

    It’s almost as if the closer your country is to Russia, the more scared you are of them.

    The whole point of NATO is that everyone defends Russian expansionism.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,724
    edited July 2024

    The opposition to them is interesting - quite a bit of cross over with the permanent officials preventing tidal ponds. Big Nuclear really doesn't like them.

    The advantages of the small reactors are

    1) Type certification - once you have the design certified, no amusing decade long investigations of the individual designs.
    2) Experience - we have companies making and installing small reactors now. Submarines. The SMRs are a slightly bigger and more powerful version of those. Basically the size of the reactors the Americans use in their aircraft carriers. Which are derived from their submarine reactors. And there is a lot of joint design work on US/UK reactors.
    3) Installation/Scaling - instead of having decades of construction, the individual SMRs can be trucked to the site (probably old nuclear plant) and individually brought on line.
    This doesn't sound at all convincing to me. They still need a cooling water supply and need to be linked up to generation facilities. They still need to be refuelled at some point. You still need to dispose of the waste. They still need security. Having, say, four SMRs on a site inside of a single traditional core just seems to me to make the whole thing more complex. I'm very sceptical about this.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,480

    Prediction, imho while the Tory party view the audience of GB News as their key demographic to win over then they will not form a government.

    And if they allow Farage to take over all the GB news demographic they may not even remain main opposition
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,537
    edited July 2024
    Potential fire in a spire at Rouen cathedral.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,940

    You have no right to tell me that I'm a liar. Just because a majority of Green Party members are anti-nuclear, doesn't mean there haven't always been a strong minority willing to use the technology, or that Greens in general haven't advocated for investment in new technology.

    How fucking dare you say that what I say about my own views is 100% untrue? What a miserable little shit you are.
    Also, as we can see from the polling, the number of people who would vote Green is much larger than what FPTP gives us. A very large proportion of the UK population consider the environment a key issue, stretching across traditional left:right bounds, with all the complexity that brings.

    Look at me. I'm stridently against road pricing on a per mile basis and have engaged in a raging argument with my local Green councillor on the matter.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,222

    Hard to start them, more like. Despite all the hype, I've yet to see any economic or environmental benefits for SMRs or indeed any concrete proposals for their installation. As far as I can see, while they, like nuclear fusion, may become useful energy sources in the long-term future, in the meantime they are at best an irrelevance and, at worst, a distraction from the more urgent need to generate clean electricity.
    Everything nuclear takes forever and costs loads more than planned. Or maybe everybody just lies at the start of the project to get it going. Either way, total dead end.
  • You have no right to tell me that I'm a liar. Just because a majority of Green Party members are anti-nuclear, doesn't mean there haven't always been a strong minority willing to use the technology, or that Greens in general haven't advocated for investment in new technology.

    How fucking dare you say that what I say about my own views is 100% untrue? What a miserable little shit you are.
    Get that stick out of your arse, I didn't say anything at all about your views.

    I said that "the Greens who consistently oppose nuclear and even wind power" are problematic.

    Since you're in the minority of Greens who don't oppose development, that doesn't include you. But it does include your party and most of your parties MPs, voters and members.

    The country has been doing the right thing for decades, despite opposition to the right thing by those Greens (not you) who are watermelons and oppose investing in clean technologies.

    It'd be better if your views were your party and your elected MPs views - but they're not. You having good views makes no more difference to your party than BigG or DavidL having good views means the Tories were electable last week.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,377

    James Timpson's idea to incentivise employers to hire ex-offenders is genius. And he has the experience and expertise in such matters. This could be Sir Keir's key appointment.

    (Yes, I know, I know.)

    Will he be involved with the Triple Lock??
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,157
    Eabhal said:

    Are Labour brave enough to cut (or slow) hospital spending and re-direct it to primary care and public health?

    *doubt*
    It's the urgent/important thing again.

    The current NHS capacity is enough to deal with urgent things sort-of-adequately. But there's very little capacity to deal with important things (like prevention and lifestyle), because one can't ignore the backlog in the urgent pile.

    TLDR: I wouldn't start from here if I were you.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,921

    And then you woke up.
    Because they would be fearsome engines? (ducks)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,060

    But can he cut recidivism?
    Just remembered the rt hon for Eddisbury was his brother. Timpson family politics clearly cut both ways
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,666

    Will he be involved with the Triple Lock??
    Get him focused on working out where the cuts will fall.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,921

    This doesn't sound at all convincing to me. They still need a cooling water supply and need to be linked up to generation facilities. They still need to be refuelled at some point. You still need to dispose of the waste. They still need security. Having, say, four SMRs on a site inside of a single traditional core just seems to me to make the whole thing more complex. I'm very sceptical about this.
    Repetition of small standard items isn't complexity, it's simplicity surely? Consider the buttons on a shirt.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,820

    But why? Is this some throwback to failed ones in the 70s (before my time). If so I'd suggest there is a big difference between protecting old industries and building new ones.
    It very much is, I'm afraid.
    Another legacy of Thatcher, which has become embedded as an unrecognised dogma, rather than what was at the time a fairly pragmatic response to recent history.

    If you asked Mrs T to explain (for example) South Korea today, she'd be somewhat flummoxed. Back in the 80s it was still a military dictatorship under General Chun Doo-hwan who led a coup in 1979.
    History has moved on; it's time we did too.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,110
    edited July 2024


    411 excluding speaker Hoyle!
    What’s that old footballing meme about the referee being a team’s 12th man? Or 412th in this case.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,787

    This doesn't sound at all convincing to me. They still need a cooling water supply and need to be linked up to generation facilities. They still need to be refuelled at some point. You still need to dispose of the waste. They still need security. Having, say, four SMRs on a site inside of a single traditional core just seems to me to make the whole thing more complex. I'm very sceptical about this.
    The waste is the whole reactor. Probably go with lifetime cores - no refuelling. The actual radioactive bit is surprisingly small.

    They will almost certainly be sited on old nuclear plant sites, many as replacements for the original reactors. So cooling water is available. And they can be guarded by Wayne Couzen's ex colleagues who are already there.

    Many of the problems of nuclear are down to each reactor being a different design - production is how to refine a design to high availability and reliability. See the experience of the US Navy with their reactors.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,149
    HYUFD said:

    And if they allow Farage to take over all the GB news demographic they may not even remain main opposition
    How big is the actual GBNews demographic? Serious Q.

    Figures for the final quarter of 2023, published on 1 February 2024, showed an average weekly audience of 430,000.

    But they appear to watch it for approximately one minute per day.
This discussion has been closed.