Were you up for Liz Truss? – politicalbetting.com
Were you up for Liz Truss? – politicalbetting.com
Liz Truss’s political record breaking continues: – Shortest reigning PM– First PM in 100 years to lose their seat – Tory MP with largest ever swing to Labour
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Yes, I was up for Truss
What, then, was her solution? “Look,” she said, “it’s never a mistake that the party of independence puts that front and central in their campaign. Not enough though has been given to make the case and win over the undecided and the strategy to deliver.”
Independence, she added, had not gone away, and “it would be a great mistake to think this election result has killed it off”. In other words, if you find yourself in a hole, keep digging.
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/scotland/article/nicola-sturgeons-night-of-humiliation-98k9kljbg
So the winner of the night is...our own Andy JS..our brilliant, statistician and political modeller....forget Curtice and his team....
The lesson for us all is that we all could get exceedingly rich if we followed his modelling....
Andy JS is not a predictor, he is a prophet that sees into the future...
Looks like as I expected, the Tories have under-performed the exit poll?
I know it's a tough moment, but she's not a wallflower. There's a set pattern - thank the returning officer and staff; thank your campaign team; congratulate the victor and wish him the best as he has the pleasure of representing this wonderful constituency; thank your family for their support and joke they'll be seeing much more of you in coming months; leave the stage.
It just looks so much better. People would be going, "Well, I didn't think much of her, but it must be a tough moment and at least she was gracious at the end". As it is, it was all a little undignified.
Con 13527
SNP 12597
Lab 11767
Ref 4313
LD 2092
Grn 1249
Heritage 230
Turnout 58%
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/S14000073
There were probably several Portillo Moments. Coffey was one for me. Truss the outstanding one for sure though.
https://x.com/timfarron/status/1809102027756052708
Contrast with what's coming in the US.
But I wonder if there might be a chance for her to at least influence the direction of Refuk, and possibly become one of their big beasts if she were prepared to defect to them.
😇
And Hunt has had them both pretty consistently since 2010.
Truss didn't show competence in office or acceptable conduct afterwards.
The Lib Dems though, over-performing by 17!
Why the BBC decided to update it, was baffling, it just made it worse.
Final scores on the doors are LLG 52.7%, RefCon 38%. But the polls were GB and this is UK with 2.5% going to Northern Ireland, so the adjusted GB numbers are LLG 54, RefCon 39. That's somewhat higher for RefCon than the polls, and lower for LLG. So a polling miss on left vs right.
What has this election told us about tactical voting? It's that Labour and the Lib Dems have got their tactical dance so in-step that they are practically operating as a single party. Extreme efficiency. But little or no evidence of any tactical voting between Labour and Green, and virtually none between Con and Reform.
https://www.thenational.scot/news/24425777.general-election-tracker-maps-charts-show-scotland-results-far/
In fairness, so was Matthew Goodwin's PeoplesPolling results.
iirc, reform = 24%
complete bollox!
Arguably good for the country to have more competitive seats?
https://x.com/TomHCalver/status/1809090481311064314?t=GxOPcUVrLWP_JmRZmoWUsQ&s=19
Does anyone know which these are and ehen they might deign to notify the world of the outcome in both cases. Pending which thousands of bets remain unsettled and in abeyance?
I do feel sorry for a certain Ian Bailey. Lib Dems should have got the Neither of the Above votes rather than carpet bagger Farage. They are strange people in that part of the world. Quite a few voted for Brexit.
Inverness - recount tomorrow!
K(IE/EI)R: no left turn, no construction!
But SKS has an awful lot to do, if he doesn't want to be a one term PM. This is a majority totally built on sand, with an insanely good operation from Morgan McSweeney who will be looked at as a man who managed to win an election despite such a poor share of the vote. As I said earlier, either he knew this beforehand, or he got lucky with targeting and the individual shares were just enough to get Labour over the line but either way, he's done something Ed Milliband failed to do in 2015 and actually pulled off a 35% strategy (remember that?).
But on the other hand, the expectations are so low for SKS that if he does anything, I suspect he won't find it difficult to increase that share, assuming the Tories don't re-group (which they don't at the moment want to).
A lot of SNP MPs being sent homeward to think again.
or am I now "Rossbane"?
I didn't like his politics, but credit to him, that was very good.
More of that and he might have won!
Now fuck off Sunak, you malignant little turd. Don't expect to be mourned.
Well done to Sunak though.
The Lib Dem updates were truly bizarre. They were picking up all the early ones that were in toss-up territory in the exit poll, often quite easily, then suddenly it downgraded them. It seemed fairly obvious early on that they were at least in line with the poll and probably ahead.
I guess there must be an internal magic to the model, but intuitively it always looked off.
This has been the election that has had the most predictable outcome but yet at the same time quite extraordinary. Labour getting so many seats from such a small vote share (polls massively over stated Labour's support). Lowest ever vote share for a majority, let alone a landslide. The start of the rise of Reform. Plus Labour also losing seats to Muslim specific independents.
It seems to me that the number of safe seats has been slashed. So many seats had results on a knife edge. It will be very easy in 4/5 years time if Labour do not do well for them to easily lose a couple of hundred seats. Governing is not easy and Labour don't have the golden economic legacy that there was in 1997 and Starmer doesn't have either the charisma of Blair or the vote share he achieved.
It is all to play for at the next general election.
Tried to post something like this before but it vanished. Just like the Conservative support!
@bjo had it right last night; excellent Parliamentary result but on around the support of about a third of those of the electorate who participated.
I think heartiest congratulations must go to Sir Ed Davey, who has led the LibDems to the best Third Party result since WWI.