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Were you up for Liz Truss? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,917
edited July 5 in General
Were you up for Liz Truss? – politicalbetting.com

Liz Truss’s political record breaking continues: – Shortest reigning PM– First PM in 100 years to lose their seat – Tory MP with largest ever swing to Labour

Read the full story here

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    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,588
    edited July 5
    First Like Labour.

    Yes, I was up for Truss
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    mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,449
    Indeed I was. She is a very strange person.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,748
    Podium out!
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    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 16,458
    I was not up. I was asleep, for the first GE in decades I went to bed early (11 ish). Foregone conclusion, no real enthusiasm for the incoming party from me, and a 17 month old son, so sleep is precious!
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    Great times! The most deserved loss in history
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    Still, the political prospects for Liz Truss are much better than for Scottish nationalism.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982

    Still, the political prospects for Liz Truss are much better than for Scottish nationalism.

    This, surely, was an opportunity for Sturgeon to admit some responsibility for the state of Scotland and the anger of an electorate let down by her government. Humility, however, is not a trait that comes easily to the former first minister. When Joanna Cherry, who had just lost her Edinburgh seat, said that the policy failings of Sturgeon’s government, the lack of debate within the party and Sturgeon’s style of leadership had contributed to the SNP’s defeat, Sturgeon only smiled thinly and shook her head. “Often you find in these kind of positions you are neither the hero or the villain,” she said. “Of course I take my share of responsibility, but to say it is all my fault is too easy a solution.”

    What, then, was her solution? “Look,” she said, “it’s never a mistake that the party of independence puts that front and central in their campaign. Not enough though has been given to make the case and win over the undecided and the strategy to deliver.”

    Independence, she added, had not gone away, and “it would be a great mistake to think this election result has killed it off”. In other words, if you find yourself in a hole, keep digging.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/scotland/article/nicola-sturgeons-night-of-humiliation-98k9kljbg
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,821
    Good riddance.
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    What will the Labour majority actually be?

    Looks like as I expected, the Tories have under-performed the exit poll?
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    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    tyson said:

    I'm posting this one again for those just popping in.....

    So the winner of the night is...our own Andy JS..our brilliant, statistician and political modeller....forget Curtice and his team....

    The lesson for us all is that we all could get exceedingly rich if we followed his modelling....

    Andy JS is not a predictor, he is a prophet that sees into the future...

    Yes - to be applauded.
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,034
    Went to bed alas. Wonder if she will try to run again.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,821

    Still, the political prospects for Liz Truss are much better than for Scottish nationalism.

    I wouldn't be surprised if Truss becomes a Trump groupie.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    BBC all over the shop “the King arriving at Buckingham Palace” as his car turns into Clarence House…..
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,246
    Dumfries & Galloway, result 648/650

    Con 13527
    SNP 12597
    Lab 11767
    Ref 4313
    LD 2092
    Grn 1249
    Heritage 230

    Turnout 58%

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/S14000073
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    Oooooft, Con Hold D and G on 29% by 2% from SNP and 4% from Lab!
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,748
    Andy_JS said:

    Dumfries & Galloway, result 648/650

    Con 13527
    SNP 12597
    Lab 11767
    Ref 4313
    LD 2092
    Grn 1249
    Heritage 230

    Turnout 58%

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/S14000073

    Now that's a threeway...
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    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    It has been such a strange election. Fascinating, but I'm also glad it has delivered a certain outcome.

    There were probably several Portillo Moments. Coffey was one for me. Truss the outstanding one for sure though.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    We have recalled Agent Truss from the field, her work is complete.

    https://x.com/timfarron/status/1809102027756052708
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    How many seats are the Scottish Tories on?
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 60,122
    Looks like a nice, smooth transfer of power.

    Contrast with what's coming in the US.
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    RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,234
    So with that Dumfries result in it means the SNP's sole gain of the night is basically down to Nigel Farage, as well as Douglas Ross being a twat.
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    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,367
    rkrkrk said:

    Went to bed alas. Wonder if she will try to run again.

    I suspect her preference would be to go off to a thinktank in America.

    But I wonder if there might be a chance for her to at least influence the direction of Refuk, and possibly become one of their big beasts if she were prepared to defect to them.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 60,122
    I was up for Shapps but not the lettuce.

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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743
    I expect @DougSeal to be eating humble pie, or does his tip for the return of Truss require some wilderness years?

    😇
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    TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,229

    Still, the political prospects for Liz Truss are much better than for Scottish nationalism.

    I wouldn't be surprised if Truss becomes a Trump groupie.
    The hope is that will be an obsolete or at least niche role by Christmas.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,821
    Comparing the Reform vote to the 2015 UKIP vote by constituency might be interesting.
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,034
    AlsoLei said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Went to bed alas. Wonder if she will try to run again.

    I suspect her preference would be to go off to a thinktank in America.

    But I wonder if there might be a chance for her to at least influence the direction of Refuk, and possibly become one of their big beasts if she were prepared to defect to them.
    In the interim perhaps America. But I suspect she wants another crack at being PM. She clearly thinks she did nothing wrong. I suspect she wants to try again.
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    SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,930
    edited July 5

    Still, the political prospects for Liz Truss are much better than for Scottish nationalism.

    I wouldn't be surprised if Truss becomes a Trump groupie.
    Why would Trump want her anywhere near him? She is what he would doubtless call a LOSER. I know that's harsh, but the very few Americans who know who the hell she is know she's notable as a catastrophic and short-lived PM. And for those who don't, what do you say? "Here's my pal Liz - she was PM of England or wherever it is for all of five minutes and got booted out, so now she's here..."
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    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 20,296

    The initial exit poll had Labour 421 and the Tories 131. So The Tories have under-performed by 10, Labour 8. Decent model.

    The Lib Dems though, over-performing by 17!

    Why the BBC decided to update it, was baffling, it just made it worse.

    It also gave Reform about 300% of the seats they actually got.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,782
    So when does Kier rock up to the King and get the keys to No 10?
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 16,372
    I believe Liz Truss had already checked out and moved onto saving the West.
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    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 16,458

    Looks like a nice, smooth transfer of power.

    Contrast with what's coming in the US.

    I am currently hosting two Texan exchange students, and they made that exact point this morning. Whether you are Tory, Labour, Lib Dem, SNP or even Reform, we can at least be proud that no-one with guns is going to invade parliament to try to keep Sunak in power.
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    Tim_in_RuislipTim_in_Ruislip Posts: 202

    The initial exit poll had Labour 421 and the Tories 131. So The Tories have under-performed by 10, Labour 8. Decent model.

    The Lib Dems though, over-performing by 17!

    Why the BBC decided to update it, was baffling, it just made it worse.

    yes, con went up to 460+ at some point, iirc. odd!
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    The initial exit poll had Labour 421 and the Tories 131. So The Tories have under-performed by 10, Labour 8. Decent model.

    The Lib Dems though, over-performing by 17!

    Why the BBC decided to update it, was baffling, it just made it worse.

    It also gave Reform about 300% of the seats they actually got.
    That too, not the best.
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    Survation are to do a review of their poll and understand why they got it so wrong.
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    TimSTimS Posts: 11,410
    So this was a useful test of the idea of RefCon and LLG blocs. A PR voting pattern in a FPTP election.

    Final scores on the doors are LLG 52.7%, RefCon 38%. But the polls were GB and this is UK with 2.5% going to Northern Ireland, so the adjusted GB numbers are LLG 54, RefCon 39. That's somewhat higher for RefCon than the polls, and lower for LLG. So a polling miss on left vs right.

    What has this election told us about tactical voting? It's that Labour and the Lib Dems have got their tactical dance so in-step that they are practically operating as a single party. Extreme efficiency. But little or no evidence of any tactical voting between Labour and Green, and virtually none between Con and Reform.
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Anyone who had Reform at 5 seats or more will be sweating...
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,748

    Looks like a nice, smooth transfer of power.

    Contrast with what's coming in the US.

    I am currently hosting two Texan exchange students, and they made that exact point this morning. Whether you are Tory, Labour, Lib Dem, SNP or even Reform, we can at least be proud that no-one with guns is going to invade parliament to try to keep Sunak in power.
    It's also very quick and brutal, off in the morning with a new PM by lunch....No transition period
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    TimS said:

    So this was a useful test of the idea of RefCon and LLG blocs. A PR voting pattern in a FPTP election.

    Final scores on the doors are LLG 52.7%, RefCon 38%. But the polls were GB and this is UK with 2.5% going to Northern Ireland, so the adjusted GB numbers are LLG 54, RefCon 39. That's somewhat higher for RefCon than the polls, and lower for LLG. So a polling miss on left vs right.

    What has this election told us about tactical voting? It's that Labour and the Lib Dems have got their tactical dance so in-step that they are practically operating as a single party. Extreme efficiency. But little or no evidence of any tactical voting between Labour and Green, and virtually none between Con and Reform.

    That tactical vote surely cannot account for the difference between 35% and 41% can it?
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    Tim_in_RuislipTim_in_Ruislip Posts: 202
    edited July 5

    Survation are to do a review of their poll and understand why they got it so wrong.

    They really were quite wrong!

    In fairness, so was Matthew Goodwin's PeoplesPolling results.

    iirc, reform = 24%

    complete bollox!
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    CiceroCicero Posts: 2,873
    MaxPB said:

    So when does Kier rock up to the King and get the keys to No 10?

    Strangely, Number 10 does not have keys, the front door locks from the inside.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 40,330

    Survation are to do a review of their poll and understand why they got it so wrong.

    Survation are to do a review of their poll and guess why they got it so wrong.
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    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 16,458

    Survation are to do a review of their poll and understand why they got it so wrong.

    Are you accepting that the polls were wrong now?
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,906
    Did anyone get more than Farron's 62.7% of the vote ?
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946

    How many seats are the Scottish Tories on?

    Five, all holds or notional hold (Gordon), Dross the loser
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    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,367

    The initial exit poll had Labour 421 and the Tories 131. So The Tories have under-performed by 10, Labour 8. Decent model.

    The Lib Dems though, over-performing by 17!

    Why the BBC decided to update it, was baffling, it just made it worse.

    ITV's update went in the opposite direction, didn't it? Did it turn out to be more accurate?
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    TimSTimS Posts: 11,410

    The initial exit poll had Labour 421 and the Tories 131. So The Tories have under-performed by 10, Labour 8. Decent model.

    The Lib Dems though, over-performing by 17!

    Why the BBC decided to update it, was baffling, it just made it worse.

    I wonder if Godalming and Ash was one of the seats sampled in the exit poll. That alone would probably be enough to account for the Lib Dem error.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033

    How many seats are the Scottish Tories on?

    Five, all holds or notional hold (Gordon), Dross the loser
    Ta.
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    Survation are to do a review of their poll and understand why they got it so wrong.

    Are you accepting that the polls were wrong now?
    I accepted that HOURS ago, please do try and keep up.
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,034
    Nice graphic showing how many more seats in UK are marginal now. Must be partly boundary changes as well as efficient lab/ldem targeting.

    Arguably good for the country to have more competitive seats?

    https://x.com/TomHCalver/status/1809090481311064314?t=GxOPcUVrLWP_JmRZmoWUsQ&s=19
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    peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    According to Sky News, currently the election reselts for 648 constituencies out of a total of 650 have been declared, leaving just 2 outstanding.
    Does anyone know which these are and ehen they might deign to notify the world of the outcome in both cases. Pending which thousands of bets remain unsettled and in abeyance?
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 60,122

    Still, the political prospects for Liz Truss are much better than for Scottish nationalism.

    I wouldn't be surprised if Truss becomes a Trump groupie.
    Why would Trump want her anywhere near him? She is what he would doubtless call a LOSER. I know that's harsh, but the very few Americans who know who the hell she is know she's notable as a catastrophic and short-lived PM. And for those who don't, what do you say? "Here's my pal Liz - she was PM of England or wherever it is for all of five minutes and got booted out, so now she's here..."
    Steve Bannon needs someone to make the coffee.
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    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 16,458

    Survation are to do a review of their poll and understand why they got it so wrong.

    Are you accepting that the polls were wrong now?
    I accepted that HOURS ago, please do try and keep up.
    Sorry - I basically went to bed at 11, when you were holding the line! :)
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,567
    Nah, I went to bed around 6am, so I missed Liz Truss :lol:
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 16,372

    So with that Dumfries result in it means the SNP's sole gain of the night is basically down to Nigel Farage, as well as Douglas Ross being a twat.

    Yep Tories didn't do good when they replaced Duguid with utter DRoss.

    I do feel sorry for a certain Ian Bailey. Lib Dems should have got the Neither of the Above votes rather than carpet bagger Farage. They are strange people in that part of the world. Quite a few voted for Brexit.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982

    According to Sky News, currently the election reselts for 648 constituencies out of a total of 650 have been declared, leaving just 2 outstanding.
    Does anyone know which these are and ehen they might deign to notify the world of the outcome in both cases. Pending which thousands of bets remain unsettled and in abeyance?

    Both full recounts later today I think
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    Rishi comes out.
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946

    According to Sky News, currently the election reselts for 648 constituencies out of a total of 650 have been declared, leaving just 2 outstanding.
    Does anyone know which these are and ehen they might deign to notify the world of the outcome in both cases. Pending which thousands of bets remain unsettled and in abeyance?

    Basildon South and Thurrock East recounting at 2 (Reform ahead)

    Inverness - recount tomorrow!
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    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,139
    Good speech. He’s fundamentally a decent man.
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    TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,229
    Cicero said:

    MaxPB said:

    So when does Kier rock up to the King and get the keys to No 10?

    Strangely, Number 10 does not have keys, the front door locks from the inside.
    I wouldn't bother locking when I went out if I had 2 armed coppers on the doorstep
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 60,122
    Sunak off once leadership decided
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    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 16,458

    Rishi comes out.

    Really? The defeat is so bad he's turned?
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    CiceroCicero Posts: 2,873

    The taking ages to take to the stage and refusing the opportunity to say some words was quite odd.

    I know it's a tough moment, but she's not a wallflower. There's a set pattern - thank the returning officer and staff; thank your campaign team; congratulate the victor and wish him the best as he has the pleasure of representing this wonderful constituency; thank your family for their support and joke they'll be seeing much more of you in coming months; leave the stage.

    It just looks so much better. People would be going, "Well, I didn't think much of her, but it must be a tough moment and at least she was gracious at the end". As it is, it was all a little undignified.

    Yes, it was absolutely graceless and guarantees that the Norfolk Tories would never reselect her. Keep people waiting and then just walking away,. That is not how we do things, no matter how upset one might be. Portillo came back on the strength of his elegant and graceful concession speech. Trusses petulance is her political epitaph.
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    DruttDrutt Posts: 1,116
    I am so metal that i was up for truss having had five hours' sleep
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 40,330
    A sign in my village:

    K(IE/EI)R: no left turn, no construction!

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    I am extremely happy this morning - :) - and glad to see the back of this frankly awful government that has very little over the fourteen years. Their biggest achievement will have been to stop Jeremy Corbyn - a decision which I disagreed with at the time but in hindsight accept was right.

    But SKS has an awful lot to do, if he doesn't want to be a one term PM. This is a majority totally built on sand, with an insanely good operation from Morgan McSweeney who will be looked at as a man who managed to win an election despite such a poor share of the vote. As I said earlier, either he knew this beforehand, or he got lucky with targeting and the individual shares were just enough to get Labour over the line but either way, he's done something Ed Milliband failed to do in 2015 and actually pulled off a 35% strategy (remember that?).

    But on the other hand, the expectations are so low for SKS that if he does anything, I suspect he won't find it difficult to increase that share, assuming the Tories don't re-group (which they don't at the moment want to).
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,748
    Good speech.. always liked Rishi, but not a leader and not PM material ultimately
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    Scott_xP said:

    According to Sky News, currently the election reselts for 648 constituencies out of a total of 650 have been declared, leaving just 2 outstanding.
    Does anyone know which these are and ehen they might deign to notify the world of the outcome in both cases. Pending which thousands of bets remain unsettled and in abeyance?

    Both full recounts later today I think
    Inverness is 10.30 am tomorrow
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    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,131

    Rishi comes out.

    Really? The defeat is so bad he's turned?
    Would explain Akshata's expression
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    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,367

    Sunak off once leadership decided

    No timetable for that, though - so we still don't know if it'll be an immediate election or an autumn/winter one.
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    sarissasarissa Posts: 1,906
    A couple of dissapointments aside, a reasonable return on my bets. 10/19 wins inc Tewkesbury, £175 profit on £200 wagered.

    A lot of SNP MPs being sent homeward to think again.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,423

    Cicero said:

    MaxPB said:

    So when does Kier rock up to the King and get the keys to No 10?

    Strangely, Number 10 does not have keys, the front door locks from the inside.
    I wouldn't bother locking when I went out if I had 2 armed coppers on the doorstep
    If I had two armed Met officers one the doorstep, I wouldn't have a door that opened from the outside, either.
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946

    Good speech.. always liked Rishi, but not a leader and not PM material ultimately

    Highest % of any Tory in the GE!
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 26,061
    Keir Starmer's first act should be to buy a new podium microphone.
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,399
    "Oh that's why he didn't have a brolly. His WIFE had it" says Mrs RP

    or am I now "Rossbane"?
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,602

    TimS said:

    So this was a useful test of the idea of RefCon and LLG blocs. A PR voting pattern in a FPTP election.

    Final scores on the doors are LLG 52.7%, RefCon 38%. But the polls were GB and this is UK with 2.5% going to Northern Ireland, so the adjusted GB numbers are LLG 54, RefCon 39. That's somewhat higher for RefCon than the polls, and lower for LLG. So a polling miss on left vs right.

    What has this election told us about tactical voting? It's that Labour and the Lib Dems have got their tactical dance so in-step that they are practically operating as a single party. Extreme efficiency. But little or no evidence of any tactical voting between Labour and Green, and virtually none between Con and Reform.

    That tactical vote surely cannot account for the difference between 35% and 41% can it?
    Apart from Savanta, I didn't see pollsters calling out the independent / Islamic surge. That alone could be near 1% in GB?
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 26,061
    Mrs S has an umbrella. It's not raining and they're going by car.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,782
    Good speech by Rishi. He just wasn't good enough though.
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    twistedfirestopper3twistedfirestopper3 Posts: 2,242
    edited July 5
    Decent speech by Sunak. They should always play "Walk Away" by Cast as the ex PM takes the walk of shame.
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,460
    I've said it before and I'll say it again. The British people will not elect a fucking Borrower as PM.

    Now fuck off Sunak, you malignant little turd. Don't expect to be mourned.
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    Good speech Rishi. I commend his commitment to public service.
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917

    Good speech.. always liked Rishi, but not a leader and not PM material ultimately

    Too gooey for me. Keep it dignified.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,763
    What a positive speech by Sunak. Compare and contrast with Steve "Brexit hard man" Baker's tearful self- indulged concession speech- diddums.

    Well done to Sunak though.
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    SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,930

    The initial exit poll had Labour 421 and the Tories 131. So The Tories have under-performed by 10, Labour 8. Decent model.

    The Lib Dems though, over-performing by 17!

    Why the BBC decided to update it, was baffling, it just made it worse.

    yes, con went up to 460+ at some point, iirc. odd!
    160, surely?

    The Lib Dem updates were truly bizarre. They were picking up all the early ones that were in toss-up territory in the exit poll, often quite easily, then suddenly it downgraded them. It seemed fairly obvious early on that they were at least in line with the poll and probably ahead.

    I guess there must be an internal magic to the model, but intuitively it always looked off.

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    AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    Haven't been on here or posted in a while but had to comment on the election.

    This has been the election that has had the most predictable outcome but yet at the same time quite extraordinary. Labour getting so many seats from such a small vote share (polls massively over stated Labour's support). Lowest ever vote share for a majority, let alone a landslide. The start of the rise of Reform. Plus Labour also losing seats to Muslim specific independents.

    It seems to me that the number of safe seats has been slashed. So many seats had results on a knife edge. It will be very easy in 4/5 years time if Labour do not do well for them to easily lose a couple of hundred seats. Governing is not easy and Labour don't have the golden economic legacy that there was in 1997 and Starmer doesn't have either the charisma of Blair or the vote share he achieved.

    It is all to play for at the next general election.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,567

    "Oh that's why he didn't have a brolly. His WIFE had it" says Mrs RP

    or am I now "Rossbane"?

    Morning, Rochdale. Commiserations on your loss, but hope it was a great campaign experience none the less.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,617
    Good morning everybody.

    Tried to post something like this before but it vanished. Just like the Conservative support!

    @bjo had it right last night; excellent Parliamentary result but on around the support of about a third of those of the electorate who participated.
    I think heartiest congratulations must go to Sir Ed Davey, who has led the LibDems to the best Third Party result since WWI.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,498
    Dignified resignation speech from Rishi, he also confirmed he would resign as PM
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917

    What a positive speech by Sunak. Compare and contrast with Steve "Brexit hard man" Baker's tearful self- indulged concession speech- diddums.

    Well done to Sunak though.

    Baker lost??

    So much has happened....
This discussion has been closed.