So this was a useful test of the idea of RefCon and LLG blocs. A PR voting pattern in a FPTP election.
Final scores on the doors are LLG 52.7%, RefCon 38%. But the polls were GB and this is UK with 2.5% going to Northern Ireland, so the adjusted GB numbers are LLG 54, RefCon 39. That's somewhat higher for RefCon than the polls, and lower for LLG. So a polling miss on left vs right.
What has this election told us about tactical voting? It's that Labour and the Lib Dems have got their tactical dance so in-step that they are practically operating as a single party. Extreme efficiency. But little or no evidence of any tactical voting between Labour and Green, and virtually none between Con and Reform.
That tactical vote surely cannot account for the difference between 35% and 41% can it?
I think the clue was there in the poll (was it @IanB2 who posted it?) Showing 39% LAB, but only 30% were real Lab, the rest preferring other parties as first choice, mostly Green. It looks to me that about half decided to go with their real preference.
I agree - we forget how late many ordinary voters start to pay attention. There will be a fair few who'd intended to vote Labour tactically, who revisited it in the runup to polling day and since it was clear Labour would win by miles, went back to their original preference. You can see this in a lot of the seats Labour won, where the LibDem vote wasn't really squeezed. Similarly the Greens chalked up some decent results in Labour held seats; in many they overtook the LibDems.
Raworth disappointed there's no redux - it's raining, there's no flags waving in Downing Street etc.
One suspects rules have changed a bit on who is allowed into downing street.
Didn't they have pretty tight security even at the time? There was an IRA mortar attack on the Cabinet in 1991 and, although the threat had lessened by 1997, there wasn't yet a ceasefire in place and it certainly wasn't like the old days when you could wander down and have your photo taken.
Dignified resignation speech from Rishi, he also confirmed he would resign as PM
Morning Mr HYUFD. You must be feeling a bit relieved this morning. Could have worse for the Conservatives in Essex.
Could have been better - Priti could have lost!
My thoughts exactly!
What shook me was both Southend seats going red. East I could understand; it was close a couple of times when I was involved in the past, but David Amess and the Channon family’s’in house’ seat…..Wow.
I wonder if these Hamas Independents will formally set themselves up as a party? Ahead of ReFuk and Green in seat numbers if they do.
Labour losing the Hamas sympathisers is a big part of the reason they're fit for, and won, office.
PMQs will be something of a pain for Starmer with quite an array of minor groups. Greens, Reform, Corbyn, the new Palestine related independents, residual and angry SNP, and the strange wooliness that only the LDs can do. I forsee quite a lot of international travel ahead for him. Poor Angela.
We had over 5,000 comments in the 12 hours after the exit poll came out and the PB servers coped.
And to you, impressed by the number of threads you spammed out overnight and the efficient closure of comments.
Last night was the fourth general election night I edited PB.
I am getting the hang of things.
Yeah your moderation was decent.
Encouraging Sean to finish his first bottle rapidly was a masterstroke, knocking him out for the key part of the night and allowing us to get on with our business seriously.
I wonder if these Hamas Independents will formally set themselves up as a party? Ahead of ReFuk and Green in seat numbers if they do.
So anyone who opposes the genocide is a Hamas supporter? You disgusting twat
I think calling it a genocide is going down the same line as calling people Hamas supporters. I think Israel has probably gone too far, but I also don't know what else they could do. There are still hostages in Gaza. The Gazan leadership would drop a nuke on Israel in seconds if they could.
I'd cycle to Buck House, take the armoured Jag on the way back (bike on the roof). I might get Olof Palmed but tootling down the Mall would be worth it.
I wonder if these Hamas Independents will formally set themselves up as a party? Ahead of ReFuk and Green in seat numbers if they do.
So anyone who opposes the genocide is a Hamas supporter? You disgusting twat
I think calling it a genocide is going down the same line as calling people Hamas supporters. I think Israel has probably gone too far, but I also don't know what else they could do. There are still hostages in Gaza. The Gazan leadership would drop a nuke on Israel in seconds if they could.
Dignified resignation speech from Rishi, he also confirmed he would resign as PM
Morning Mr HYUFD. You must be feeling a bit relieved this morning. Could have worse for the Conservatives in Essex.
Could have been better - Priti could have lost!
My thoughts exactly!
And IDS, who deserved to lose after his arrogant hubristic victory speech. Every other person can see that he was bloody lucky to be running against two Labour candidates who split the vote exactly equally, so he gave us a lecture about how it was all down to his own brilliance and hard work.
He even went on to criticise some of his colleagues for "thinking it was all about being in Westminster" - effectively telling his losing colleagues that if only they'd been as good an MP as he is, they wouldn't have lost. I bet they really appreciate that.
I wonder if these Hamas Independents will formally set themselves up as a party? Ahead of ReFuk and Green in seat numbers if they do.
So anyone who opposes the genocide is a Hamas supporter? You disgusting twat
I think calling it a genocide is going down the same line as calling people Hamas supporters. I think Israel has probably gone too far, but I also don't know what else they could do. There are still hostages in Gaza. The Gazan leadership would drop a nuke on Israel in seconds if they could.
Purely hypothetical. It's Israel who've killed 40,000.
Is bigjohnowls on? Happy to donate £50 to charity of his choice - I offered a bet Starmer would outperform Corbyn... he was right!
Corbyn 262 seats Starmer 412 seats!
Don't forget, Magic Grandpa had a majestic win in 2017 which for technical reasons didn't involve him moving into Downing Street.
Whereas Sir K. has had a tragic failure which, for equally technical reasons, has resulted in the largest number of Labour MPs and a shift to the Government benches.
Dignified resignation speech from Rishi, he also confirmed he would resign as PM
Morning Mr HYUFD. You must be feeling a bit relieved this morning. Could have worse for the Conservatives in Essex.
Could have been better - Priti could have lost!
My thoughts exactly!
And IDS, who deserved to lose after his arrogant hubristic victory speech. Every other person can see that he was bloody lucky to be running against two Labour candidates who split the vote exactly equally, so he gave us a lecture about how it was all down to his own brilliance and hard work.
IDS was the one 1983 type result. Pity for them there weren't 250 more.
No, I was just pointing out the stupidity of your comment that to have concern about the Palestinians made you a Hamas supporter.
Your language is the language of Netanyahu which should make you reflect.
Having concerns for the Palestinians is fine. Having concerns for the Jews in Israel is fine.
When you put one of those as your top priority, in this country, over everything else - then it's very easy to appear a Hamas or Bibi supporter.
And I see a worrying amount of people whose 'concern' for the Palestinians appears to trump everything else that is happening in the world. And yes, I would class many of those people as Hamas supporters.
I do hope these new 'independent' MPs will look after the interests of all their constituents, even Jewish ones.
Five, all holds or notional hold (Gordon), Dross the loser
DRoss played a blinder.
Now finds himself as a back bencher in Holyrood.
Has DRoss actually resigned as ScotCon leader? I thought he said that he *would* resign *if* he was elected in ANME.
Don't think so. A quick check yields only this (and a Northern Scot story). He hgas promised to resign as party leader [edit] after the election full stop, as well as MSP if he got to keep the MP gig. But maybe he will suddenly decide he has changed his mind. Not being a MP any more, see. Plenty of time.
Is bigjohnowls on? Happy to donate £50 to charity of his choice - I offered a bet Starmer would outperform Corbyn... he was right!
Corbyn 262 seats Starmer 412 seats!
Don't forget, Magic Grandpa had a majestic win in 2017 which for technical reasons didn't involve him moving into Downing Street.
Whereas Sir K. has had a tragic failure which, for equally technical reasons, has resulted in the largest number of Labour MPs and a shift to the Government benches.
Given the Tories have been blaming both of them for UKG policy for the last 14 years, it hardly seems to matter.
It's fun to see the commentary on the SNP swing all the way back the other way. After 2015 there were shrill voices complaining of a one party state (when they got 50% of the vote). Now it's talk of annihilation (and they're heading for about 30% of the vote I think).
One of the reasons I don't like FPTP is the unjust seat distributions (honestly, 56/59 seats was insane), but the other aspect is how exaggerated the effects, and therefore the reactions, are.
None of this will dent the Labour joy or the SNP pain -- a huge number of seats have changed hands. But in the cold light of day it's looking like SNP have a decent base to build back on. If they can keep their fucking fingers out of tills/young boys/expenses/jail!
ANME: final update. We did it, we shifted the Tories out! Big thanks to Rochdale for helping with that. I'm certain with a non-existent campaign from the Lib Dems the Tories would have clung on. Finishing last shouldn't be a mark of shame, it was a small contribution but a big effect. I'm delighted we have an MP who isn't Conservative or Reform.
Future: my vote is immediately back in play, and the rules have changed. The Tories have had the kicking they so richly deserved and needed. My priority is probably going to be back to Europe again next election. Immediate favourites will be Lib Dem and SNP, but we'll see how policy stances develop. I'm much less likely to vote tactically next time, but we're going to have to keep an eye on whether the Tories lurch rightwards. I could vote again to keep them out if they're still a shitshow or worse. But I think they'll turn towards the light.
How do you see yourself voting with your Holyrood votes in 2026?
(Tell me to feck off if you don't want to answer, heck tell me to feck off if you do want to answer.)
I think the Holyrood election of 2026 could re-energise Scottish nationalism.
The Conservative Keighley and Ilkley win was very impressive, especially as the Labour candidate was an ex-MP. I had heard Moore was effective and while I will bow to @SandyRentool's analysis I think he must be underselling Moore's popularity given how much he bucked the trend.
I wonder if these Hamas Independents will formally set themselves up as a party? Ahead of ReFuk and Green in seat numbers if they do.
So anyone who opposes the genocide is a Hamas supporter? You disgusting twat
I think calling it a genocide is going down the same line as calling people Hamas supporters. I think Israel has probably gone too far, but I also don't know what else they could do. There are still hostages in Gaza. The Gazan leadership would drop a nuke on Israel in seconds if they could.
"what else they could do"?
Not target the civilian population.
Gaza obviously matters to a significant segment of the population, not by any means all Muslim, but I think there is more to it than that. There is a feeling (very much like Red wall Reform voters) that Labour has taken them for granted for far too long and failed to invest in their communities. The two have a lot in common.
Big questions for how the Tories go up against this.
In one sense there are very big questions and in another there is a single, pretty simple question:
Absorb RefUK or kill them?
I know you then go on to "how?" but the Tory problem will be there will be violent disagreement on that basic point.
Reform may kill themselves. A year from now, they may have vanished in a myriad of factions.
But, let's say they're here for the duration. IMHO, to start with, take a leaf out of the left's book. Encourage tactical voting among right wing voters. Where Reform are best placed to go after Labour, let them do so. Labour will ultimately do stuff that pisses off right wing voters, who will want to remove the local Labour MP. Every Labour loss, even if it is to Reform, is a benfit to the Conservatives.
The Lab Govt is starting with 34% support. If they lose support then surely a Hung Parliament is almost certain next time. Even without a deal, the Con and Ref votes should be a bit more efficient as it will be obvious in each seat which of them is the strongest challenger.
Of course if the Govt does well and gains support then they will be re-elected.
Good to see all the counts done overnight now. I recall only a few elections ago there was talk of moving to counting the following day and indeed many counts were done so.
It's fun to see the commentary on the SNP swing all the way back the other way. After 2015 there were shrill voices complaining of a one party state (when they got 50% of the vote). Now it's talk of annihilation (and they're heading for about 30% of the vote I think).
One of the reasons I don't like FPTP is the unjust seat distributions (honestly, 56/59 seats was insane), but the other aspect is how exaggerated the effects, and therefore the reactions, are.
None of this will dent the Labour joy or the SNP pain -- a huge number of seats have changed hands. But in the cold light of day it's looking like SNP have a decent base to build back on. If they can keep their fucking fingers out of tills/young boys/expenses/jail!
ANME: final update. We did it, we shifted the Tories out! Big thanks to Rochdale for helping with that. I'm certain with a non-existent campaign from the Lib Dems the Tories would have clung on. Finishing last shouldn't be a mark of shame, it was a small contribution but a big effect. I'm delighted we have an MP who isn't Conservative or Reform.
Future: my vote is immediately back in play, and the rules have changed. The Tories have had the kicking they so richly deserved and needed. My priority is probably going to be back to Europe again next election. Immediate favourites will be Lib Dem and SNP, but we'll see how policy stances develop. I'm much less likely to vote tactically next time, but we're going to have to keep an eye on whether the Tories lurch rightwards. I could vote again to keep them out if they're still a shitshow or worse. But I think they'll turn towards the light.
I think that's a decent take.
That graph Horse posted is fascinating - much of it is FPTP and vote efficiency and how it varies. That's the riules of the FPTP game, which to be fair to both parties the LDs and SNP have always decried.
Look I want him to be incontrovertibly senile and moved out of Kamala's way, but he is just stumbling over the point that he was VP to a black man and now has a black woman as VP. Let's not exaggerate.
It is. She is a broken woman. Everything she has ever wanted politically has crumbled into dust.
I would walk across broken glass to vote against her, but have some compassion.
Oh come on. That's a cheeky running joke from Farron based on Truss's Lib Dem past, and nothing more. If you're a politician and you're affected by that, you're most certainly in the wrong career.
At every election, a load of political careers end, or are at least very significantly set back. If you're giving a victory speech, you can be magnanimous etc. But you want to win and it means your opponent losing by definition. Truss or any other ex-MP can go and have a nice holiday and get on with the rest of their lives. Worse things happen at sea and it's the nature of the business.
Plus the old girl will always be an ex-PM, albeit with an asterisk. That'll get her a damned sight better table at the restaurant than, say, an unsuccessful Lib Dem ex-leader at the nadir of the party's fortunes.
Stockton, Redcar and Middlesborough/Cleveland along with Darlington were all above par efforts even if only one a hold, very close to a cluster of seats in Houchen land
So after some early thought they might not be too far off 1997 the LD successes in the South have meant the Tories are not too far off the upper end of my expected range of 115.
I'll cling to that due to be so wrong about SNP seats, here's hoping they don't get into double figures. Alba, well, what need be said?
Reform disappointed in some ways but they got a handful in and the Tories need to crush them or absorb them to get back inside a generation.
LDs made FPTP work for them, showing they at last get the system they hate.
Greens also proved themselves in seats and voteshare. I'm sure Lucas was fine but she was a sideshow. Now they are a force.
Still, the political prospects for Liz Truss are much better than for Scottish nationalism.
This, surely, was an opportunity for Sturgeon to admit some responsibility for the state of Scotland and the anger of an electorate let down by her government. Humility, however, is not a trait that comes easily to the former first minister. When Joanna Cherry, who had just lost her Edinburgh seat, said that the policy failings of Sturgeon’s government, the lack of debate within the party and Sturgeon’s style of leadership had contributed to the SNP’s defeat, Sturgeon only smiled thinly and shook her head. “Often you find in these kind of positions you are neither the hero or the villain,” she said. “Of course I take my share of responsibility, but to say it is all my fault is too easy a solution.”
What, then, was her solution? “Look,” she said, “it’s never a mistake that the party of independence puts that front and central in their campaign. Not enough though has been given to make the case and win over the undecided and the strategy to deliver.”
Independence, she added, had not gone away, and “it would be a great mistake to think this election result has killed it off”. In other words, if you find yourself in a hole, keep digging.
My highlight of last night was her face when the exit poll came out.
That's a woman thinking, "We used to need a 50 seater coach to transport our MPs around, now we could do it in a decent sized campervan... I wish I had one."
A Vauxhall Zafira and a Corsa would suffice.
Sadly, it seems that the maximum configuration for the Niesmann + Bischoff ‘iSmove’ is 5 seats with seatbelts etc.
Good to see all the counts done overnight now. I recall only a few elections ago there was talk of moving to counting the following day and indeed many counts were done so.
👍
We're lucky in that we're a country where it's practical to have the election, count the votes, and (most of the time...) know the winner by six the next morning. No mucking about, job jobbed. IMV the longer the election process - I'm looking at you, US Presidential elections - the more the chances of chicanery and chaos.
Mr. F, there's a difference, though, in that encouraging Reform to grow provides a rival to the Conservatives. Is that something they want in the long term?
Starmer and Reeves have to go for planning reform, to go for growth, and they have a mandate for it.
If they do, they'll get growth and they'll have done the right thing.
If they don't, the UK will continue to languish.
They will use the massive landslide to do some bad or stupid stuff. Hopefully they'll also use it for something good and transformative like this, it causes so many additional issues.
Mr. F, there's a difference, though, in that encouraging Reform to grow provides a rival to the Conservatives. Is that something they want in the long term?
Labour has learned to adapt to a left wing rival (the Lib Dems), that can win in seats they can't win in. The Conservatives can do the same.
I wonder if these Hamas Independents will formally set themselves up as a party? Ahead of ReFuk and Green in seat numbers if they do.
So anyone who opposes the genocide is a Hamas supporter? You disgusting twat
I think calling it a genocide is going down the same line as calling people Hamas supporters. I think Israel has probably gone too far, but I also don't know what else they could do. There are still hostages in Gaza. The Gazan leadership would drop a nuke on Israel in seconds if they could.
"what else they could do"?
Not target the civilian population.
Gaza obviously matters to a significant segment of the population, not by any means all Muslim, but I think there is more to it than that. There is a feeling (very much like Red wall Reform voters) that Labour has taken them for granted for far too long and failed to invest in their communities. The two have a lot in common.
I mentioned earlier an anecdote on ITV from Anushka Asthana. She went to the Muslim Wall seats during the campaign - by the way, I remember near-zero coverage from the main media about these seats. And she said that although Gaza was a key issue, the two-child benefits cap came up very often. Now, that all being said, in places like Knowsley and Bootle, you saw a distributed Green/Reform gain rather than a surge for one particular independent from the most vocal religious group.
Stockton, Redcar and Middlesborough/Cleveland along with Darlington were all above par efforts even if only one a hold, very close to a cluster of seats in Houchen land
Rod Liddle got almost 2,000 votes for the SDP in Middlesborough South & East Cleveland. Their best result was 2,000 votes and third place in Doncaster North.
So 121 Con MPs - which means 41 needed to make the Leadership Final 2. (40 would guarantee 2nd=).
@HYUFD - have you done an analysis yet re who will make the Final?
Has Braverman got the numbers?
I think Barclay or Cleverly are the likeliest contenders to be next leader, I don't think Tory MPs will put Braverman in the last 2 and her former campaign manager Steve Barclay lost his seat
It is. She is a broken woman. Everything she has ever wanted politically has crumbled into dust.
I would walk across broken glass to vote against her, but have some compassion.
Oh come on. That's a cheeky running joke from Farron based on Truss's Lib Dem past, and nothing more. If you're a politician and you're affected by that, you're most certainly in the wrong career.
At every election, a load of political careers end, or are at least very significantly set back. If you're giving a victory speech, you can be magnanimous etc. But you want to win and it means your opponent losing by definition. Truss or any other ex-MP can go and have a nice holiday and get on with the rest of their lives. Worse things happen at sea and it's the nature of the business.
Plus the old girl will always be an ex-PM, albeit with an asterisk. That'll get her a damned sight better table at the restaurant than, say, an unsuccessful Lib Dem ex-leader at the nadir of the party's fortunes.
I can have compassion for Truss up to a point. Her removal as PM was brutal and her successor did no better, and initially she handled it with some impressive dignity.
But rebranding as some kind of economic guru with Trumpian tendencies was her own choice later and compounded her humiliation.
It's fun to see the commentary on the SNP swing all the way back the other way. After 2015 there were shrill voices complaining of a one party state (when they got 50% of the vote). Now it's talk of annihilation (and they're heading for about 30% of the vote I think).
One of the reasons I don't like FPTP is the unjust seat distributions (honestly, 56/59 seats was insane), but the other aspect is how exaggerated the effects, and therefore the reactions, are.
None of this will dent the Labour joy or the SNP pain -- a huge number of seats have changed hands. But in the cold light of day it's looking like SNP have a decent base to build back on. If they can keep their fucking fingers out of tills/young boys/expenses/jail!
ANME: final update. We did it, we shifted the Tories out! Big thanks to Rochdale for helping with that. I'm certain with a non-existent campaign from the Lib Dems the Tories would have clung on. Finishing last shouldn't be a mark of shame, it was a small contribution but a big effect. I'm delighted we have an MP who isn't Conservative or Reform.
Future: my vote is immediately back in play, and the rules have changed. The Tories have had the kicking they so richly deserved and needed. My priority is probably going to be back to Europe again next election. Immediate favourites will be Lib Dem and SNP, but we'll see how policy stances develop. I'm much less likely to vote tactically next time, but we're going to have to keep an eye on whether the Tories lurch rightwards. I could vote again to keep them out if they're still a shitshow or worse. But I think they'll turn towards the light.
How do you see yourself voting with your Holyrood votes in 2026?
(Tell me to feck off if you don't want to answer, heck tell me to feck off if you do want to answer.)
I think the Holyrood election of 2026 could re-energise Scottish nationalism.
Also, feck off. And I mean that nicely. Feck off to bed. You must be knackered.
It's fun to see the commentary on the SNP swing all the way back the other way. After 2015 there were shrill voices complaining of a one party state (when they got 50% of the vote). Now it's talk of annihilation (and they're heading for about 30% of the vote I think).
One of the reasons I don't like FPTP is the unjust seat distributions (honestly, 56/59 seats was insane), but the other aspect is how exaggerated the effects, and therefore the reactions, are.
None of this will dent the Labour joy or the SNP pain -- a huge number of seats have changed hands. But in the cold light of day it's looking like SNP have a decent base to build back on. If they can keep their fucking fingers out of tills/young boys/expenses/jail!
ANME: final update. We did it, we shifted the Tories out! Big thanks to Rochdale for helping with that. I'm certain with a non-existent campaign from the Lib Dems the Tories would have clung on. Finishing last shouldn't be a mark of shame, it was a small contribution but a big effect. I'm delighted we have an MP who isn't Conservative or Reform.
Future: my vote is immediately back in play, and the rules have changed. The Tories have had the kicking they so richly deserved and needed. My priority is probably going to be back to Europe again next election. Immediate favourites will be Lib Dem and SNP, but we'll see how policy stances develop. I'm much less likely to vote tactically next time, but we're going to have to keep an eye on whether the Tories lurch rightwards. I could vote again to keep them out if they're still a shitshow or worse. But I think they'll turn towards the light.
How do you see yourself voting with your Holyrood votes in 2026?
(Tell me to feck off if you don't want to answer, heck tell me to feck off if you do want to answer.)
I think the Holyrood election of 2026 could re-energise Scottish nationalism.
Except they'll be defending 19 yrs in Govt! They've not long to float the ferries, dual the roads, and transform education.
And it's not evident that, say, replacing Swinney with Forbes will help much. She was very prominent as deputy fm during the campaign. Mind, you do wonder what would have happened if they'd stuck with Humza.
Keir Starmer's plan for his first 100 days in government
- Diplomatic push at Nato and EPC meeting - Planning reform blitz - Push for private investment - Lifting ban on onshore wind - Sue Gray has "20 bills" for King's Speech
Comments
Big questions for how the Tories go up against this.
Didn't they have pretty tight security even at the time? There was an IRA mortar attack on the Cabinet in 1991 and, although the threat had lessened by 1997, there wasn't yet a ceasefire in place and it certainly wasn't like the old days when you could wander down and have your photo taken.
I am getting the hang of things.
https://x.com/michaelsavage/status/1809150399816839537
Would be a good interim leader while the Tories work out what they are for. If they pick Braverman we’ll know “not a lot”.
What shook me was both Southend seats going red. East I could understand; it was close a couple of times when I was involved in the past, but David Amess and the Channon family’s’in house’ seat…..Wow.
And did you see Jess Phillips acceptance speech?
https://x.com/_jack_carson/status/1809088902835085353
Apparently he is now a black woman. Completely incoherent. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/biden-kamala-harris-black-woman-president-gaffe-b2574597.html
Your language is the language of Netanyahu which should make you reflect.
I don't know what the final two seats are but my guess of them matching Blair is not looking too bad.
I would walk across broken glass to vote against her, but have some compassion.
Not target the civilian population.
Absorb RefUK or kill them?
I know you then go on to "how?" but the Tory problem will be there will be violent disagreement on that basic point.
He even went on to criticise some of his colleagues for "thinking it was all about being in Westminster" - effectively telling his losing colleagues that if only they'd been as good an MP as he is, they wouldn't have lost. I bet they really appreciate that.
Whereas Sir K. has had a tragic failure which, for equally technical reasons, has resulted in the largest number of Labour MPs and a shift to the Government benches.
@HYUFD - have you done an analysis yet re who will make the Final?
Has Braverman got the numbers?
https://x.com/oflynnsocial/status/1809144510561034348
Having concerns for the Jews in Israel is fine.
When you put one of those as your top priority, in this country, over everything else - then it's very easy to appear a Hamas or Bibi supporter.
And I see a worrying amount of people whose 'concern' for the Palestinians appears to trump everything else that is happening in the world. And yes, I would class many of those people as Hamas supporters.
I do hope these new 'independent' MPs will look after the interests of all their constituents, even Jewish ones.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ceddenl8xz4o
Inverness, Skye & Ross West
Labour majority of 174. So just five shy of Blair.
My assumption that the Tories would under-perform seems to have been validated.
#Trotsout
(Tell me to feck off if you don't want to answer, heck tell me to feck off if you do want to answer.)
I think the Holyrood election of 2026 could re-energise Scottish nationalism.
Starmer and Reeves have to go for planning reform, to go for growth, and they have a mandate for it.
If they do, they'll get growth and they'll have done the right thing.
If they don't, the UK will continue to languish.
Build those phone masts.
But, let's say they're here for the duration. IMHO, to start with, take a leaf out of the left's book. Encourage tactical voting among right wing voters. Where Reform are best placed to go after Labour, let them do so. Labour will ultimately do stuff that pisses off right wing voters, who will want to remove the local Labour MP. Every Labour loss, even if it is to Reform, is a benfit to the Conservatives.
The Lab Govt is starting with 34% support. If they lose support then surely a Hung Parliament is almost certain next time. Even without a deal, the Con and Ref votes should be a bit more efficient as it will be obvious in each seat which of them is the strongest challenger.
Of course if the Govt does well and gains support then they will be re-elected.
👍
That graph Horse posted is fascinating - much of it is FPTP and vote efficiency and how it varies. That's the riules of the FPTP game, which to be fair to both parties the LDs and SNP have always decried.
At every election, a load of political careers end, or are at least very significantly set back. If you're giving a victory speech, you can be magnanimous etc. But you want to win and it means your opponent losing by definition. Truss or any other ex-MP can go and have a nice holiday and get on with the rest of their lives. Worse things happen at sea and it's the nature of the business.
Plus the old girl will always be an ex-PM, albeit with an asterisk. That'll get her a damned sight better table at the restaurant than, say, an unsuccessful Lib Dem ex-leader at the nadir of the party's fortunes.
Hope you enjoyed the campaign and thanks for keeping us posted! 👍
The Tories lost it, rather than Labour won it:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2x0g8nkzmzo
I'll cling to that due to be so wrong about SNP seats, here's hoping they don't get into double figures. Alba, well, what need be said?
Reform disappointed in some ways but they got a handful in and the Tories need to crush them or absorb them to get back inside a generation.
LDs made FPTP work for them, showing they at last get the system they hate.
Greens also proved themselves in seats and voteshare. I'm sure Lucas was fine but she was a sideshow. Now they are a force.
Planning reform is essential.
No limits on phone masts in urban areas.
(Cue Leon mode)
I WAS RIGHT !!!!!
Aliens! Woke! AI!
(/cue Leon mode)
Sorry, I didn't stop Leon mode soon enough...
Labour to be polling in fourth place with a BPC registered pollster in a Westminster VI poll in the next 18 months (excluding any by Matt Goodwin)
Nigel Farage will not serve a full term as MP.
The morning after the 2019 GE I struck a very great bet with one of these people that Boris Johnson's tenure as PM would be shorter than Dave's.
Worth capturing the moment
But rebranding as some kind of economic guru with Trumpian tendencies was her own choice later and compounded her humiliation.
And it's not evident that, say, replacing Swinney with Forbes will help much. She was very prominent as deputy fm during the campaign. Mind, you do wonder what would have happened if they'd stuck with Humza.
- Diplomatic push at Nato and EPC meeting
- Planning reform blitz
- Push for private investment
- Lifting ban on onshore wind
- Sue Gray has "20 bills" for King's Speech
https://x.com/PronouncedAlva/status/1809164454866591978