Wasn't Barnsley North one of the 13 seats Reform were supposed to win?
Yes, the exit got it badly wrong there.
In fairness Curtice did say the Reform and SNP numbers were likely to be very volatile.
I called sell on that Reform total the minute I saw it.
I also did so on the LibDems - there are some hopeful signs from the early results, but I still feel they will need a few total surprise gains in seats no poll or model tipped for them, to balance the ones in the list that I know they won’t win. With these huge falls in the Tory vote, it is possible.
Wasn't Barnsley North one of the 13 seats Reform were supposed to win?
Yes, the exit got it badly wrong there.
ITV saying that Reform disowned the candidate there though, so that would be local factor influence depressing the reform vote that exit poll doesn’t factor in
Wasn't Barnsley North one of the 13 seats Reform were supposed to win?
BARNSLEY NORTH Labour 50.4% +11.9% [compared with 2019] Reform 29.3% −0.3 [compared with Brexit Party?] Con 8.4% −15.6% Green 4.9% +2.5% Lib Dem 3.6% +0.1% Ind 1.7% +1.7% Yorkshire 1.6% 0
Wasn't Barnsley North one of the 13 seats Reform were supposed to win?
BARNSLEY NORTH Labour 50.4% +11.9% [compared with 2019] Reform 29.3% −0.3 [compared with Brexit Party?] Con 8.4% −15.6% Green 4.9% +2.5% Lib Dem 3.6% +0.1% Ind 1.7% +1.7% Yorkshire 1.6% 0
SSI - Not even close
That's similar to my prediction beforehand. I didn't believe the exit poll on that one.
Eastleigh a Lib Dem gain... but with a warning. Labour up and a fairly narrow win even though exit poll gave a 99% chance. It's always been a decent enough area for Labour, but LDs will need to do better on squeeze elsewhere.
Labour overturn a 16k Tory majority in North Swindon on a 18.6% swing.
This is where it matters. No doubt we’ll hear a lot of wittering about refuk’s many second places, but Labour and the LDs are toppling battleground seats with relative ease.
You have to say the Tory tactic of completely ignoring Reform has been utterly disastrous for them.
I’d have to have a heart of stone etc.
The creation of their own press has murdered them.
Well they didn't totally ignore them, they went with this weird half and half. The ridiculous national service policy made up in 10 minutes totally backfired then ducking all the obvious realistic things that could have parked their tanks on reform's lawn.
The massive balls up of the national service policy and Sunak being so poor in week one, got Farage to come off the bench. That was the moment the Tories were in big trouble. Richard Tice wasn't going to hold big rallies with crowds chanting for him, he would have been basically invisible.
Eastleigh a Lib Dem gain... but with a warning. Labour up and a fairly narrow win even though exit poll gave a 99% chance. It's always been a decent enough area for Labour, but LDs will need to do better on squeeze elsewhere.
I wouldn't be too concerned, nearest Gails is in Petersfield, so not natural LD territory.
Former Welsh Secretary Alun Cairns just lost his seat to Labour in the Vale of Glamorgan. Conservatives on course for total wipeout in Wales - zero seats.
The tepid increases in the Labour vote (for such a large landslide) doesn't suggest any great groundswell of enthusiasm for Starmer.
I can see him having a very short honeymoon. What's the betting on when we'll next have a poll that doesn't have Labour in the lead?
It depends on if he does a good job. If people expect nothing and he does alright, it would be a classic under promise and over deliver situation. He could have a long honeymoon.
This one is a VITAL one. Not on my target list. The MRPs had it either Con or Con/Lab marginal. Yet look at the Labour vote! That’s a huge fail by the MRPs. One MRP had it “likely Lab”.First LibDem gain from third place - and look at the margin!
Maybe the LDs can do the 61 after all, with a few more like that
Comments
I also did so on the LibDems - there are some hopeful signs from the early results, but I still feel they will need a few total surprise gains in seats no poll or model tipped for them, to balance the ones in the list that I know they won’t win. With these huge falls in the Tory vote, it is possible.
Lab 19000
Ref 15000
Con 4500
Grn 1500
LD 1750
Andy bang on for Lab, yet underestimating Green. Hmm. Mayhap Bristol Central is still in play...
*derisive snort*
Lab 17,930
Con 13,827
Ref 7,557
LD 2,086
Grn 2,366
Ind 260
TUSC 139
BARNSLEY NORTH
Labour 50.4% +11.9% [compared with 2019]
Reform 29.3% −0.3 [compared with Brexit Party?]
Con 8.4% −15.6%
Green 4.9% +2.5%
Lib Dem 3.6% +0.1%
Ind 1.7% +1.7%
Yorkshire 1.6% 0
SSI - Not even close
Lab 17930
Con 13827
Ref 7557
Grn 2366
LD 2086
Ind 260
Labour gain from Cons
The fun I might have had telling Mrs Sandpit that I was going to the bank and then getting a plane to London…
I’d have to have a heart of stone etc.
The creation of their own press has murdered them.
Lab GAIN Blackpool South
A day? Ten hours? Ten minutes?
Con seems to be outperforming the EP expectations so far.
Labour also hold on to Barnsley South - another seat the exit poll projected for Reform UK
https://x.com/harry_horton/status/1809031910099702001
LD 23976
Con 15738
Ref 5679
Lab 4153
Grn 1762
Ind 620
Ind 136
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001269
The massive balls up of the national service policy and Sunak being so poor in week one, got Farage to come off the bench. That was the moment the Tories were in big trouble. Richard Tice wasn't going to hold big rallies with crowds chanting for him, he would have been basically invisible.
Any news on turnout ?
Battersea Lab hold
Former Welsh Secretary Alun Cairns just lost his seat to Labour in the Vale of Glamorgan. Conservatives on course for total wipeout in Wales - zero seats.
I can see him having a very short honeymoon. What's the betting on when we'll next have a poll that doesn't have Labour in the lead?
Lab 16516
Ref 7921
Con 6764
PC 3629
Ind 3338
Grn 1760
LD 1446
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/W07000086
Oh yeah, Con shat the bed too. Well, omlettes, eggs, etc
I can't see Tories getting close to 130 here. Will they pass 100?
Lab GAIN Vale of Glamorgan from Con
https://x.com/christopherhope/status/1809032509012779123
Maybe the LDs can do the 61 after all, with a few more like that
Twitter consensus currently I’m seeing is that the Tories might do a lot worse than the exit poll suggests?
ETA: As noted, seat was Harrogate and Knaresborough
Is this going to be the most unbalanced parliament for vote share vs seats? Or were the SDP years worse?
Edit: Fake News
Three Con Holds!! 🍾
Labour source - not only is Yvette Cooper going to win, she's going to increase her majority.