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Tories banjaxed in crucial bellwether seat of Nuneaton – politicalbetting.com

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  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,200
    Vale of Glamorgan -> Lab gain

    Lab 17740
    Con 13524
    Ref 6973
    PC 3245
    Grn 1881
    LD 1612
    Abolish Welsh Assembly 669
    Ind 182
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,077
    HYUFD said:

    Reform now claiming they have beaten Shadow HS Yvette Cooper in Pontefract and Castleford
    https://x.com/christopherhope/status/1809032509012779123

    Heavily contested by Labour who say she’s going to increase her majority
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,876
    PedestrianRock said:

    Why are some of you saying the Tories are outperforming the exit poll?

    Twitter consensus currently I’m seeing is that the Tories might do a lot worse than the exit poll suggests?

    We need an update from Sir John C. I don't think the exit poll will be too far away but I could be wrong.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,003
    Lab GAIN Carshalton
  • CookieCookie Posts: 12,830
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    First Welsh result:

    Lab GAIN Vale of Glamorgan from Con

    That wasn't the first Welsh result! Lab have also gained Bridgend.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,961
    Sandpit said:

    Broxbourne!

    Three Con Holds!! 🍾

    Getting close to needing to upgrade to an Uber Executive....
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,041
    Reform have ridiculous spokespeople lol
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 20,927
    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    My LD seat sell is looking like a loser.

    From what base?
    Sold at 62.
    Spin has them 60-63, so not a disaster.
  • PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 578
    Channel 4 correspondent: Penny Mordaunt in trouble in Portsmouth
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,637
    edited July 5
    Ripon was Liberal in 1906 and for a few months after a 70s by election. Skipton was Liberal in 1910. Edit, pity it wasn't a correct call.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,622
    Sat here with Malcolm Bruce who is increasingly happy.

    ANME turnout only 54%. Said it was shite
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,806
    edited July 5
    PedestrianRock said:

    Why are some of you saying the Tories are outperforming the exit poll?

    Twitter consensus currently I’m seeing is that the Tories might do a lot worse than the exit poll suggests?

    No, the exit poll looks about right. For it to be significantly wrong Labour should have gained Castle Point and Broxbourne
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,164
    MightyAlex said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Skipton & Ripon -> LD gain

    LD 23976
    Con 15738
    Ref 5679
    Lab 4153
    Grn 1762
    Ind 620
    Ind 136

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001269

    This isn't right, right? Seems skipton and ripon hasn't been called yet.
    The link is for Harrogate & Knaresborough.

    Hexxed by Mother Shipton, I think.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 50,452
    Tories hammered in Telford
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,581
    Con seats:

    Under 100 - 2.18
    Over 100 - 1.78

    Wouldn't like to guess!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,200
    Leigh & Atherton -> Lab gain

    Lab 19971
    Ref 11090
    Con 6483
    Grn 1653
    LD 1597
    ED 376

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001329
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,534
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Sat here with Malcolm Bruce who is increasingly happy.

    ANME turnout only 54%. Said it was shite

    Congrats on your campaign. I hope you get a fair showing from the electorate!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,003
    Lab GAIN Redcar
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,200
    Hartlepool declaration incoming
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,100
    MikeL said:

    Telford Con goes from 59% to 21%!!!

    The Tories are done in these areas...the Telfords, Swindons, Midlands, Northern seats..they'll hold on in areas where people have wealth and want to pay lower taxes...but hold on for now...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,494
    edited July 5
    Ashfield declaration Reform 17,000 Labour 11,000 Indy’s 6,200

    Reform hold
  • TimSTimS Posts: 11,967
    Andy_JS said:

    Skipton & Ripon -> LD gain

    LD 23976
    Con 15738
    Ref 5679
    Lab 4153
    Grn 1762
    Ind 620
    Ind 136

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001269

    Good to see the Lib Dems making gains in the North. There was a danger in becoming just a Southern party.
  • BobSykesBobSykes Posts: 46
    Think Skipton will be a Friday afternoon seat. It covers most of the Dales. Not sure they count until Friday.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,961
    edited July 5
    williamglenn said:

    Tories hammered in Telford

    I stopped off in Telford the other week. It is looking very downtrodden these days. Not the shiny new town it used to be.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,277
    Ashfield declaration.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,078
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Lab GAIN Redcar

    Oh come on: everyone has won Redcar.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,261
    Ashfield lining up...
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,164
    Should be enough for LeeAnder?
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,057
    Andy_JS said:

    Funny if Holden loses Basildon by 20 votes after chicken-running.

    The classic was Iain Sproat in 1983 who chicken ran and lost badly... while the seat he had previously had was very narrowly held.

    At least Dick Holden won't suffer that, I suspect.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 20,927
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    First Welsh result:

    Lab GAIN Vale of Glamorgan from Con

    Good grief. It's the posh bit of Wales.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,726
    HYUFD said:

    Reform now claiming they have beaten Shadow HS Yvette Cooper in Pontefract and Castleford
    https://x.com/christopherhope/status/1809032509012779123

    Portillo moment!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,277
    Looks like Lee Anderson has won.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,405
    Ashfield REF.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,961
    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Nigelb said:

    Just woken up.
    Any news on turnout ?

    Voting was not brisk....
    On the other hand, no-voting WAS brisk. Especially by VERY shy Tories.
    I think they were brisking walking anywhere but the polling station.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,261
    Anderson elected, so there's No.1.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,806
    edited July 5
    Ashfield

    Reform 17062
    Green 1100
    LD 619
    Labour 11553
    Cons 3271

    Reform GAIN from Cons. Lee Anderson elected
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,003
    Lee Anderson wins Ashfield
  • EScrymgeourEScrymgeour Posts: 125
    Ref Gain
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    That's one Reform seat at least.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,753
    Feck 30p Lee wins
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,326
    @PaulBrandITV

    BREAKING: Lee Anderson wins Reform UK’s first seat of the night, keeping his seat in Ashfield.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 50,452
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Looks like Lee Anderson has won.

    And it wasn't close.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,726
    HYUFD said:

    Ashfield

    Reform 17062
    Green 1100
    LD 619
    Labour 11553
    Cons 3271

    Reform GAIN from Cons. Lee Anderson elected

    yeah!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,323
    Sandpit said:

    Broxbourne!

    Three Con Holds!! 🍾

    I was happy to support you getting one Tory seat but this is just greedy now.
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,415
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Tories closer to 100 than 131 I think.

    Noticeable that the 50-99 Con seats band on Betfair has come in sharply - now at 2.32
  • TimSTimS Posts: 11,967
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Lab GAIN Carshalton

    What? Surely not. Lib Dem?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,995
    Someone on here said Anderson definitely wouldn't win.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,055
    Scott_xP said:

    @PaulBrandITV

    BREAKING: Lee Anderson wins Reform UK’s first seat of the night, keeping his seat in Ashfield.

    Backed him for £1 @ 1.3
  • GravitationGravitation Posts: 287
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Looks like Lee Anderson has won.

    Ugh
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,261
    Christ that Conservative 3,000 vote share/4th place is shocking.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,078
    edited July 5
    HYUFD said:

    Ashfield

    Reform 17062
    Green 1100
    LD 619
    Labour 11553
    Cons 3271

    Reform GAIN from Cons. Lee Anderson elected

    That's an incredible result for Reform: 50+% of the vote.

    Forgot about Jason Z.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 52,980
    Scott_xP said:

    @kiranstacey

    Labour source - not only is Yvette Cooper going to win, she's going to increase her majority.

    Sion Simon would be proud.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,003
    Cons down in 4th in Ashfield
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,442
    state_go_away said:

    HYUFD said:

    Reform now claiming they have beaten Shadow HS Yvette Cooper in Pontefract and Castleford
    https://x.com/christopherhope/status/1809032509012779123

    Portillo moment!
    "This is heavily contested" Lol
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,961
    noneoftheabove said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @PaulBrandITV

    BREAKING: Lee Anderson wins Reform UK’s first seat of the night, keeping his seat in Ashfield.

    Backed him for £1 @ 1.3
    Got a big bet on then ;-)
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,352
    So Lee Anderson judged his defection well.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,116
    Farooq said:

    Nikki Morgan and Rory Stewart sat at the same table on C4 and talking SO MUCH SENSE.
    How the fuck did the Tories lose this whole wing of their party? Idiots.

    It's BoJo the Bozo what done it!
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,723
    Lee Anderson bet has come off!
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,326
    @robfordmancs

    Cannock Chase has now broken the record set by Telford 20 minutes earlier - *25.7* point Con to Lab swing. Wow.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 12,830
    Andy_JS said:

    Funny if Holden loses Basildon by 20 votes after chicken-running.

    I had two English pounds on Reform there at 25 to 1, inspired by Norman Lamont's unsuccessful chicken run in 1997.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Zadrozny vote small.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,200
    Ashfield -> Ref gain

    Ref 17062
    Lab 11553
    Ash Ind 6276
    Con 3271
    Grn 1100
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,261
    AlsoLei said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Tories closer to 100 than 131 I think.

    Noticeable that the 50-99 Con seats band on Betfair has come in sharply - now at 2.32
    I got on there at 17 or 19 earlier this evening. Sadly only £10. Should have backed myself.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,637
    ITV have chosen Lee Anderson as their first winner's speech, at least for the last few hours I watched. Far from establishment conspiracy, media absolutely adore Reform.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,055
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @PaulBrandITV

    BREAKING: Lee Anderson wins Reform UK’s first seat of the night, keeping his seat in Ashfield.

    Backed him for £1 @ 1.3
    Got a big bet on then ;-)
    Enough to feed a family of 4!
  • TimSTimS Posts: 11,967
    There are large swathes of the country now where the conservatives are no longer the main right wing party. Quite something.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 5,850
    edited July 5
    So much for Labour not winning Hartlepool . Some of tonight’s so called sources are reminding me of the London Mayoral election tosh.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,200
    Cannock Chase -> Lab gain

    Lab 15670
    Con 12046
    Ref 11570
    Grn 2137
    LD 1029

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001150
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Leanderthal can’t pronounce ‘Reform’
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,164
    17% Con to Lab swing in Ashfield.

    You may think it's not the headline here, but it all feeds in to the national swing.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,261
    First Scottish result - Douglas Alexander in.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 52,980
    Scott_xP said:

    @PaulBrandITV

    BREAKING: Lee Anderson wins Reform UK’s first seat of the night, keeping his seat in Ashfield.

    He was a Tory defector no?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,078
    Ghedebrav said:

    Zadrozny vote small.

    Indeed: I'm surprised how poorly the soon to be imprisoned Zadrozny did.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,057
    That's the wildcard of RefUK. Exit poll had them nearly certain to win Barnsley and they lost badly... and under 50% chance of Ashfield, and they won well.

    Suspect that reflects ground game, though. Not sure many of their candidates will have that like Anderson.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,041
    edited July 5
    Labour a comfortable second in Ashfield, how does this chime with the MRPs?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,494
    Heathener said:

    HYUFD said:

    Reform now claiming they have beaten Shadow HS Yvette Cooper in Pontefract and Castleford
    https://x.com/christopherhope/status/1809032509012779123

    Heavily contested by Labour who say she’s going to increase her majority
    So will Labour need an HS2, or not?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    Green second in Norwich South
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,753
    Scott_xP said:

    @robfordmancs

    Cannock Chase has now broken the record set by Telford 20 minutes earlier - *25.7* point Con to Lab swing. Wow.

    Did I miss Telford? My neighbouring seat.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 2,966
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Sat here with Malcolm Bruce who is increasingly happy.

    ANME turnout only 54%. Said it was shite

    Hows it looking? Say Hi to Malcolm!
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    Broxbourne Tory hold
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,528
    Andy_JS said:

    Funny if Holden loses Basildon by 20 votes after chicken-running.

    Be left Holden his Dick rather than his seat....
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,100
    state_go_away said:

    HYUFD said:

    Reform now claiming they have beaten Shadow HS Yvette Cooper in Pontefract and Castleford
    https://x.com/christopherhope/status/1809032509012779123

    Portillo moment!

    Not quite...that night the Tories lost by a landslide, tonight Labour win by a landslide...but nearly, sort of??
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,041
    Labour win Hartlepool.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,164
    Andy_JS said:

    Cannock Chase -> Lab gain

    Lab 15670
    Con 12046
    Ref 11570
    Grn 2137
    LD 1029

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001150

    25.7% swing.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 11,967
    Scott_xP said:

    @robfordmancs

    Cannock Chase has now broken the record set by Telford 20 minutes earlier - *25.7* point Con to Lab swing. Wow.

    West Midlands swings to Con were disproportionately large in 2019, so I think that region is going to see a general adjustment.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,326
    @jessicaelgot

    Anna Turley returns as the Labour MP for Redcar after losing in 2019, Jacob Young who was a key champion of Sunak loses his seats
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,041
    Hartlepool result: LAB GAIN
    Jonathan Brash (Lab) - 16,414
    Tommy Dudley (WPoB) - 248
    Sam Lee (Ind) - 895
    Peter Maughan (LD) - 572
    Jill Mortimer (Con) - 7,767
    Amanda Napper (Ref) - 8,716
    Vivienne Neville (Her) - 65
    Jeremy Spyby-Steanson (Grn) - 834

    https://x.com/NicMarkoLDR/status/1809034248780710085
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,200
    Barnsley South -> Lab hold

    Lab 16399
    Ref 11651
    Con 3247
    Grn 1521
    LD 1172
    Yorkshire Party 716
    Soc Lab 227
    Eng Dem 149

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001075
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,057
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @PaulBrandITV

    BREAKING: Lee Anderson wins Reform UK’s first seat of the night, keeping his seat in Ashfield.

    He was a Tory defector no?
    He was a Labour defector first, to be fair. The Lib Dems should give him an application form... or perhaps not.
  • PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 578
    I’ve been nibbling at Labour 450-499 for an hour now and it’s looking decent so far
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 50,452
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Hartlepool result: LAB GAIN
    Jonathan Brash (Lab) - 16,414
    Tommy Dudley (WPoB) - 248
    Sam Lee (Ind) - 895
    Peter Maughan (LD) - 572
    Jill Mortimer (Con) - 7,767
    Amanda Napper (Ref) - 8,716
    Vivienne Neville (Her) - 65
    Jeremy Spyby-Steanson (Grn) - 834

    https://x.com/NicMarkoLDR/status/1809034248780710085

    Big exit poll failure there.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,352
    The LDs have Chichester! Wow.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,041
    Pro_Rata said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Cannock Chase -> Lab gain

    Lab 15670
    Con 12046
    Ref 11570
    Grn 2137
    LD 1029

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001150

    25.7% swing.
    Really does suggest that Labour is getting the swings just where they need them and no more, no less.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,312
    Why are these lazy whoppers so slow at counting?
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,726
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @PaulBrandITV

    BREAKING: Lee Anderson wins Reform UK’s first seat of the night, keeping his seat in Ashfield.

    He was a Tory defector no?
    got cancelled by them
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,277

    NEW THREAD

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,200
    Tories didn't lose Broxbourne, they held it by 3,500, exit poll wrong again.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,041
    If I were a Tory, beyond saying "Labour have won on only 36% of the vote" (to be fair so has Novara), I would be more worried about how effective Labour has been at targeting their votes.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,312
    williamglenn said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Hartlepool result: LAB GAIN
    Jonathan Brash (Lab) - 16,414
    Tommy Dudley (WPoB) - 248
    Sam Lee (Ind) - 895
    Peter Maughan (LD) - 572
    Jill Mortimer (Con) - 7,767
    Amanda Napper (Ref) - 8,716
    Vivienne Neville (Her) - 65
    Jeremy Spyby-Steanson (Grn) - 834

    https://x.com/NicMarkoLDR/status/1809034248780710085

    Big exit poll failure there.
    Did the exit poll have it going Tory?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,277

    NEW THREAD

This discussion has been closed.