Tories banjaxed in crucial bellwether seat of Nuneaton – politicalbetting.com

Andy_JS

Vale of Glamorgan -> Lab gain

Lab 17740
Con 13524
Ref 6973
PC 3245
Grn 1881
LD 1612
Abolish Welsh Assembly 669
Ind 182

Heathener

HYUFD said:

Reform now claiming they have beaten Shadow HS Yvette Cooper in Pontefract and Castleford
https://x.com/christopherhope/status/1809032509012779123

Heavily contested by Labour who say she’s going to increase her majority

GIN1138

PedestrianRock said:

Why are some of you saying the Tories are outperforming the exit poll?

Twitter consensus currently I’m seeing is that the Tories might do a lot worse than the exit poll suggests?

We need an update from Sir John C. I don't think the exit poll will be too far away but I could be wrong.

Sunil_Prasannan

Lab GAIN Carshalton

FrancisUrquhart

Sandpit said:

Broxbourne!

Three Con Holds!! 🍾

Getting close to needing to upgrade to an Uber Executive....

Cookie

Sunil_Prasannan said:

First Welsh result:

Lab GAIN Vale of Glamorgan from Con

That wasn't the first Welsh result! Lab have also gained Bridgend.

BatteryCorrectHorse

Reform have ridiculous spokespeople lol

viewcode

rcs1000 said:

IanB2 said:

rcs1000 said:

My LD seat sell is looking like a loser.

From what base?

Sold at 62.

Spin has them 60-63, so not a disaster.

PedestrianRock

Channel 4 correspondent: Penny Mordaunt in trouble in Portsmouth

EPG

Ripon was Liberal in 1906 and for a few months after a 70s by election. Skipton was Liberal in 1910. Edit, pity it wasn't a correct call.

RochdalePioneers

Sat here with Malcolm Bruce who is increasingly happy.

ANME turnout only 54%. Said it was shite

HYUFD

PedestrianRock said:

Why are some of you saying the Tories are outperforming the exit poll?

Twitter consensus currently I’m seeing is that the Tories might do a lot worse than the exit poll suggests?

No, the exit poll looks about right. For it to be significantly wrong Labour should have gained Castle Point and Broxbourne

Pro_Rata

MightyAlex said:

Andy_JS said:

Skipton & Ripon -> LD gain

LD 23976
Con 15738
Ref 5679
Lab 4153
Grn 1762
Ind 620
Ind 136

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001269

This isn't right, right? Seems skipton and ripon hasn't been called yet.

The link is for Harrogate & Knaresborough.

Hexxed by Mother Shipton, I think.

williamglenn

Tories hammered in Telford

MikeL

Con seats:

Under 100 - 2.18
Over 100 - 1.78

Wouldn't like to guess!

Andy_JS

Leigh & Atherton -> Lab gain

Lab 19971
Ref 11090
Con 6483
Grn 1653
LD 1597
ED 376

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001329

RobD

RochdalePioneers said:

Sat here with Malcolm Bruce who is increasingly happy.

ANME turnout only 54%. Said it was shite

Congrats on your campaign. I hope you get a fair showing from the electorate!

Sunil_Prasannan

Lab GAIN Redcar

Andy_JS

Hartlepool declaration incoming

tyson

MikeL said:

Telford Con goes from 59% to 21%!!!

The Tories are done in these areas...the Telfords, Swindons, Midlands, Northern seats..they'll hold on in areas where people have wealth and want to pay lower taxes...but hold on for now...

IanB2

Ashfield declaration Reform 17,000 Labour 11,000 Indy’s 6,200

Reform hold

TimS

Andy_JS said:

Skipton & Ripon -> LD gain

LD 23976
Con 15738
Ref 5679
Lab 4153
Grn 1762
Ind 620
Ind 136

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001269

Good to see the Lib Dems making gains in the North. There was a danger in becoming just a Southern party.

BobSykes

Think Skipton will be a Friday afternoon seat. It covers most of the Dales. Not sure they count until Friday.

FrancisUrquhart

williamglenn said:

Tories hammered in Telford

I stopped off in Telford the other week. It is looking very downtrodden these days. Not the shiny new town it used to be.

TheScreamingEagles

Ashfield declaration.

rcs1000

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Lab GAIN Redcar

Oh come on: everyone has won Redcar.

Chameleon

Ashfield lining up...

Pro_Rata

Should be enough for LeeAnder?

SirNorfolkPassmore

Andy_JS said:

Funny if Holden loses Basildon by 20 votes after chicken-running.

The classic was Iain Sproat in 1983 who chicken ran and lost badly... while the seat he had previously had was very narrowly held.

At least Dick Holden won't suffer that, I suspect.

viewcode

Sunil_Prasannan said:

First Welsh result:

Lab GAIN Vale of Glamorgan from Con

Good grief. It's the posh bit of Wales.

state_go_away

HYUFD said:

Reform now claiming they have beaten Shadow HS Yvette Cooper in Pontefract and Castleford
https://x.com/christopherhope/status/1809032509012779123

Portillo moment!

TheScreamingEagles

Looks like Lee Anderson has won.

Flatlander

Ashfield REF.

FrancisUrquhart

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Nigelb said:

Just woken up.
Any news on turnout ?

Voting was not brisk....

On the other hand, no-voting WAS brisk. Especially by VERY shy Tories.

I think they were brisking walking anywhere but the polling station.

Chameleon

Anderson elected, so there's No.1.

HYUFD

Ashfield

Reform 17062
Green 1100
LD 619
Labour 11553
Cons 3271

Reform GAIN from Cons. Lee Anderson elected

Sunil_Prasannan

Lee Anderson wins Ashfield

EScrymgeour

Ref Gain

KentRising

That's one Reform seat at least.

Monksfield

Feck 30p Lee wins

Scott_xP

@PaulBrandITV

BREAKING: Lee Anderson wins Reform UK’s first seat of the night, keeping his seat in Ashfield.

williamglenn

TheScreamingEagles said:

Looks like Lee Anderson has won.

And it wasn't close.

state_go_away

HYUFD said:

Ashfield

Reform 17062
Green 1100
LD 619
Labour 11553
Cons 3271

Reform GAIN from Cons. Lee Anderson elected

yeah!

Benpointer

Sandpit said:

Broxbourne!

Three Con Holds!! 🍾

I was happy to support you getting one Tory seat but this is just greedy now.

AlsoLei

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Tories closer to 100 than 131 I think.

Noticeable that the 50-99 Con seats band on Betfair has come in sharply - now at 2.32

TimS

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Lab GAIN Carshalton

What? Surely not. Lib Dem?

tlg86

Someone on here said Anderson definitely wouldn't win.

noneoftheabove

Scott_xP said:

@PaulBrandITV

BREAKING: Lee Anderson wins Reform UK’s first seat of the night, keeping his seat in Ashfield.

Backed him for £1 @ 1.3

Gravitation

TheScreamingEagles said:

Looks like Lee Anderson has won.

Ugh

Chameleon

Christ that Conservative 3,000 vote share/4th place is shocking.

rcs1000

HYUFD said:

Ashfield

Reform 17062
Green 1100
LD 619
Labour 11553
Cons 3271

Reform GAIN from Cons. Lee Anderson elected

That's an incredible result for Reform: 50+% of the vote.

Forgot about Jason Z.

Sandpit

Scott_xP said:

@kiranstacey

Labour source - not only is Yvette Cooper going to win, she's going to increase her majority.

Sion Simon would be proud.

Sunil_Prasannan

Cons down in 4th in Ashfield

TheWhiteRabbit

state_go_away said:

HYUFD said:

Reform now claiming they have beaten Shadow HS Yvette Cooper in Pontefract and Castleford
https://x.com/christopherhope/status/1809032509012779123

Portillo moment!

"This is heavily contested" Lol

FrancisUrquhart

noneoftheabove said:

Scott_xP said:

@PaulBrandITV

BREAKING: Lee Anderson wins Reform UK’s first seat of the night, keeping his seat in Ashfield.

Backed him for £1 @ 1.3

Got a big bet on then ;-)

Jonathan

So Lee Anderson judged his defection well.

SeaShantyIrish2

Farooq said:

Nikki Morgan and Rory Stewart sat at the same table on C4 and talking SO MUCH SENSE.
How the fuck did the Tories lose this whole wing of their party? Idiots.

It's BoJo the Bozo what done it!

SMukesh

Lee Anderson bet has come off!

Scott_xP

@robfordmancs

Cannock Chase has now broken the record set by Telford 20 minutes earlier - *25.7* point Con to Lab swing. Wow.

Cookie

Andy_JS said:

Funny if Holden loses Basildon by 20 votes after chicken-running.

I had two English pounds on Reform there at 25 to 1, inspired by Norman Lamont's unsuccessful chicken run in 1997.

Ghedebrav

Zadrozny vote small.

Andy_JS

Ashfield -> Ref gain

Ref 17062
Lab 11553
Ash Ind 6276
Con 3271
Grn 1100

Chameleon

AlsoLei said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Tories closer to 100 than 131 I think.

Noticeable that the 50-99 Con seats band on Betfair has come in sharply - now at 2.32

I got on there at 17 or 19 earlier this evening. Sadly only £10. Should have backed myself.

EPG

ITV have chosen Lee Anderson as their first winner's speech, at least for the last few hours I watched. Far from establishment conspiracy, media absolutely adore Reform.

noneoftheabove

FrancisUrquhart said:

noneoftheabove said:

Scott_xP said:

@PaulBrandITV

BREAKING: Lee Anderson wins Reform UK’s first seat of the night, keeping his seat in Ashfield.

Backed him for £1 @ 1.3

Got a big bet on then ;-)

Enough to feed a family of 4!

TimS

There are large swathes of the country now where the conservatives are no longer the main right wing party. Quite something.

nico679

So much for Labour not winning Hartlepool . Some of tonight’s so called sources are reminding me of the London Mayoral election tosh.

Andy_JS

Cannock Chase -> Lab gain

Lab 15670
Con 12046
Ref 11570
Grn 2137
LD 1029

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001150

Ghedebrav

Leanderthal can’t pronounce ‘Reform’

Pro_Rata

17% Con to Lab swing in Ashfield.

You may think it's not the headline here, but it all feeds in to the national swing.

Chameleon

First Scottish result - Douglas Alexander in.

Sandpit

Scott_xP said:

@PaulBrandITV

BREAKING: Lee Anderson wins Reform UK’s first seat of the night, keeping his seat in Ashfield.

He was a Tory defector no?

rcs1000

Ghedebrav said:

Zadrozny vote small.

Indeed: I'm surprised how poorly the soon to be imprisoned Zadrozny did.

SirNorfolkPassmore

That's the wildcard of RefUK. Exit poll had them nearly certain to win Barnsley and they lost badly... and under 50% chance of Ashfield, and they won well.

Suspect that reflects ground game, though. Not sure many of their candidates will have that like Anderson.

IanB2

Heathener said:

HYUFD said:

Reform now claiming they have beaten Shadow HS Yvette Cooper in Pontefract and Castleford
https://x.com/christopherhope/status/1809032509012779123

Heavily contested by Labour who say she’s going to increase her majority

So will Labour need an HS2, or not?

BatteryCorrectHorse

Labour a comfortable second in Ashfield, how does this chime with the MRPs?

wooliedyed

Green second in Norwich South

Monksfield

Scott_xP said:

@robfordmancs

Cannock Chase has now broken the record set by Telford 20 minutes earlier - *25.7* point Con to Lab swing. Wow.

Did I miss Telford? My neighbouring seat.

Cicero

RochdalePioneers said:

Sat here with Malcolm Bruce who is increasingly happy.

ANME turnout only 54%. Said it was shite

Hows it looking? Say Hi to Malcolm!

wooliedyed

Broxbourne Tory hold

MarqueeMark

Andy_JS said:

Funny if Holden loses Basildon by 20 votes after chicken-running.

Be left Holden his Dick rather than his seat....

tyson

state_go_away said:

HYUFD said:

Reform now claiming they have beaten Shadow HS Yvette Cooper in Pontefract and Castleford
https://x.com/christopherhope/status/1809032509012779123

Portillo moment!

Not quite...that night the Tories lost by a landslide, tonight Labour win by a landslide...but nearly, sort of??

BatteryCorrectHorse

Labour win Hartlepool.

Pro_Rata

Andy_JS said:

Cannock Chase -> Lab gain

Lab 15670
Con 12046
Ref 11570
Grn 2137
LD 1029

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001150

25.7% swing.

TimS

Scott_xP said:

@robfordmancs

Cannock Chase has now broken the record set by Telford 20 minutes earlier - *25.7* point Con to Lab swing. Wow.

West Midlands swings to Con were disproportionately large in 2019, so I think that region is going to see a general adjustment.

Scott_xP

@jessicaelgot

Anna Turley returns as the Labour MP for Redcar after losing in 2019, Jacob Young who was a key champion of Sunak loses his seats

BatteryCorrectHorse

Hartlepool result: LAB GAIN
Jonathan Brash (Lab) - 16,414
Tommy Dudley (WPoB) - 248
Sam Lee (Ind) - 895
Peter Maughan (LD) - 572
Jill Mortimer (Con) - 7,767
Amanda Napper (Ref) - 8,716
Vivienne Neville (Her) - 65
Jeremy Spyby-Steanson (Grn) - 834

https://x.com/NicMarkoLDR/status/1809034248780710085

SirNorfolkPassmore

Sandpit said:

Scott_xP said:

@PaulBrandITV

BREAKING: Lee Anderson wins Reform UK’s first seat of the night, keeping his seat in Ashfield.

He was a Tory defector no?

He was a Labour defector first, to be fair. The Lib Dems should give him an application form... or perhaps not.

Andy_JS

Barnsley South -> Lab hold

Lab 16399
Ref 11651
Con 3247
Grn 1521
LD 1172
Yorkshire Party 716
Soc Lab 227
Eng Dem 149

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001075

PedestrianRock

I’ve been nibbling at Labour 450-499 for an hour now and it’s looking decent so far

williamglenn

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Hartlepool result: LAB GAIN
Jonathan Brash (Lab) - 16,414
Tommy Dudley (WPoB) - 248
Sam Lee (Ind) - 895
Peter Maughan (LD) - 572
Jill Mortimer (Con) - 7,767
Amanda Napper (Ref) - 8,716
Vivienne Neville (Her) - 65
Jeremy Spyby-Steanson (Grn) - 834

https://x.com/NicMarkoLDR/status/1809034248780710085

Big exit poll failure there.

Jonathan

The LDs have Chichester! Wow.

BatteryCorrectHorse

Pro_Rata said:

Andy_JS said:

Cannock Chase -> Lab gain

Lab 15670
Con 12046
Ref 11570
Grn 2137
LD 1029

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001150

25.7% swing.

Really does suggest that Labour is getting the swings just where they need them and no more, no less.

Gallowgate

Why are these lazy whoppers so slow at counting?

state_go_away

Sandpit said:

Scott_xP said:

@PaulBrandITV

BREAKING: Lee Anderson wins Reform UK’s first seat of the night, keeping his seat in Ashfield.

He was a Tory defector no?

got cancelled by them

TheScreamingEagles

NEW THREAD

Andy_JS

Tories didn't lose Broxbourne, they held it by 3,500, exit poll wrong again.

Gallowgate

williamglenn said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Hartlepool result: LAB GAIN
Jonathan Brash (Lab) - 16,414
Tommy Dudley (WPoB) - 248
Sam Lee (Ind) - 895
Peter Maughan (LD) - 572
Jill Mortimer (Con) - 7,767
Amanda Napper (Ref) - 8,716
Vivienne Neville (Her) - 65
Jeremy Spyby-Steanson (Grn) - 834

https://x.com/NicMarkoLDR/status/1809034248780710085

Big exit poll failure there.

Did the exit poll have it going Tory?

BatteryCorrectHorse

If I were a Tory, beyond saying "Labour have won on only 36% of the vote" (to be fair so has Novara), I would be more worried about how effective Labour has been at targeting their votes.

TheScreamingEagles

NEW THREAD