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Tories banjaxed in crucial bellwether seat of Nuneaton – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,008
edited July 5 in General
Tories banjaxed in crucial bellwether seat of Nuneaton – politicalbetting.com

Labour have gained Nuneaton – one of the first seats where Reform have literally taken the vote away from the Tories… Look at that split!Full recount taking place in Basildon.(Sky News Graphics)#GeneralElection2024 #GE24 pic.twitter.com/OKVRKlWVQE

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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,982
    edited July 5
    Oh, first!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,530
    Second?
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,261
    Rumours that the Basildon recount has 20 votes in it, and it's which shade of blue that is under dispute.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,944
    edited July 5
    Extraordinary if Labour do win their landslide having gained just a few %-age points in national vote share!
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    Bishop Auckland a surprise hold possibly based on Darlington?
    One to watch
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,161
    Ouch, Nuneaton swing of 19%
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,445
    So - has Rishi held on to his seat?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,944
    Knowsley = Lab hold
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,415
    edited July 5
    FPT,
    Monksfield said:

    There’s definitely a Labour ladies look of bobs and bangs

    Moonrabbit did some really good commentary on this - she called them "the Labour fringes".

    It's an interesting lens through which to view the current crop of top Labour politicians, as so many of them arrived in parliament at the same time (which goes some way towards explaining why they have such similar 2010-ish haircuts)

    Partly its a result of the bottlenecking in the front bench-worthy Labour intake during the Corbyn years. The 2024 intake is going to make the party look very different, and it's worth wondering how soon the newcomers will find their way into ministerial positions.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,082
    FPT
    LostPassword said:

    Really notable how the Labour vote is hardly shifting.

    My forecast was for them to get 35.8% compared to 32.9% in 2019.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,082
    BBC: recount in Basildon is over 20 votes.
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,720
    edited July 5
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iFyVLRnJG_7HD1BrN6BQMzU_n2Vl-BjJEIz5H3qq6XA/edit?gid=1283546375#gid=1283546375

    @RobD Andy`s spreadsheets
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 2,958
    Shapps out
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,123
    tlg86 said:

    Oh, first!

    Not whilst Robert is about.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    LostPassword said:

    Really notable how the Labour vote is hardly shifting.

    My forecast was for them to get 35.8% compared to 32.9% in 2019.
    They’ll be shifting where it counts. As opposed the Jezza safe-seat stockpile.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,369
    Andy_JS said:

    BBC: recount in Basildon is over 20 votes.

    Who is ahead by 20 votes though ? They'll probably win.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 47,470
    Pro_Rata said:

    Ouch, Nuneaton swing of 19%

    dirty sleazy Tories on the slide.
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 920
    Chameleon said:

    Rumours that the Basildon recount has 20 votes in it, and it's which shade of blue that is under dispute.

    Who called it?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 50,329
    BoJo would have held Nuneaton.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Cicero said:

    Shapps out

    Good. Slimy sod.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,052
    MarqueeMark said:

    So - has Rishi held on to his seat?

    His first class seat on the next flight to LA? I'd have thought so.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Foxy said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Ouch, Nuneaton swing of 19%

    dirty sleazy Tories on the slide.
    SKSFPE
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,637
    Cicero said:

    Shapps out

    Bad night for the Green.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Cicero said:

    Shapps out

    For the lads
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,082
    edited July 5
    Barnsley North

    Lab 18,610
    Ref 10,799
    Con 3,083
    Grn 1,805
    LD 1,336
    Ind 616
    Yorkshire Party 603
    Eng Nat 42

    So the exit poll got it wrong?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,097
    AlsoLei said:

    FPT,

    Monksfield said:

    There’s definitely a Labour ladies look of bobs and bangs

    Moonrabbit did some really good commentary on this - she called them "the Labour fringes".

    It's an interesting lens through which to view the current crop of top Labour politicians, as so many of them arrived in parliament at the same time (which goes some way towards explaining why they have such similar 2010-ish haircuts)

    Partly its a result of the bottlenecking in the front bench-worthy Labour intake during the Corbyn years. The 2024 intake is going to make the party look very different, and it's worth wondering how soon the newcomers will find their way into ministerial positions.
    VERY soon.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,741
    Nothing from the NW yet? Come on.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 26,807
    AlsoLei said:

    FPT,

    Monksfield said:

    There’s definitely a Labour ladies look of bobs and bangs

    Moonrabbit did some really good commentary on this - she called them "the Labour fringes".

    It's an interesting lens through which to view the current crop of top Labour politicians, as so many of them arrived in parliament at the same time (which goes some way towards explaining why they have such similar 2010-ish haircuts)

    Partly its a result of the bottlenecking in the front bench-worthy Labour intake during the Corbyn years. The 2024 intake is going to make the party look very different, and it's worth wondering how soon the newcomers will find their way into ministerial positions.
    I'm with Moonrabbit. They are fringes not bangs, ffs.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,372
    Barnsley North not going Reform
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,075
    BBC coverage really is dreadful.
  • BobSykesBobSykes Posts: 46
    ITV call Barnsley N for labour. Wasn't that one of the Ref13 on the exit poll?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,400
    Barnsley, Labour hold 18,600 to Tory 3,000, Reform 10,700
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,741
    So much for the Barnsley rumour
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,655
    Yes in Nuneaton and Darlington it is Tory voters going Reform which has cost them the seat, the Labour vote is not up significantly.

    What Harrogate shows however is in Tory v LD marginals a much larger percentage of 2019 Tories are going LD than 2019 Tories are going Labour in Tory v Labour marginals. LDs up 11.5% in Harrogate, slightly more than the Reform vote is up
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,944
    edited July 5
    Barnsley North held by Lab's Dan Jarvis.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,655
    Labour hold Barnsley over Reform
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,161
    Barnsley North exit was bill then.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Flatlander said:

    Barnsley North not going Reform

    Could they end up with just the one MP, Farage in Clacton? Their vote is simply not efficient enough.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,637
    williamglenn said:

    BoJo would have held Nuneaton.

    After losing by-elections on 30 point swings.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 20,841
    Andy_JS said:

    Barnsley North

    Lab 18,610
    Ref 10,799
    Con 3,083
    Grn 1,805
    LD 1,336
    Ind 616
    Yorkshire Party 603
    Eng Nat 42

    So the exit poll got it wrong?

    And badly!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,655
    Leeds W and Pudsey. Reeves' holds
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,944
    Rachel holds Leeds West! Reform in 3rd
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 17,158
    Nuneaton is an amazing result. Labour only had 31.5% of the vote in 2019, increased their vote by less than one thousand, and yet have won the seat.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,082
    Leeds West & Pudsey

    Lab 18,976
    Con 6,584
    Ref 6,281
    Grn 3,794
    LD 1,743
    Yorkshire 404
    SDP 79

    Rachel Reeves vote goes down from 23,220 to 18,976.

    https://electionresults.parliament.uk/elections/2309
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 47,470
    edited July 5
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    So - has Rishi held on to his seat?

    His first class seat on the next flight to LA? I'd have thought so.
    Flying scheduled? How are the mighty humbled!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,008
    Andy_JS said:

    BBC: recount in Basildon is over 20 votes.

    W00t! I have a sell on the smallest majority :-)
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,097
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Knowsley = Lab hold

    Clearly some of the Labour defectors voted for Reform, based on the numbers.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,161
    Pro_Rata said:

    Barnsley North exit was bill then.

    And even bull
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,530
    Sandpit said:

    CON HOLD Champagne. Thanks for the bet @Leon 🍾


    You've already spent your winnings, and then some!
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,316
    @PeterAdamSmith

    SNP now telling me they think they may have lost all of their seats in Edinburgh, including Joanna Cherry’s.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,041
    Reform not done so well in Leeds
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,002
    Sandpit said:

    CON HOLD Champagne. Thanks for the bet @Leon 🍾


    Looking tasty.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,741
    Farooq said:

    Cicero said:

    Shapps out

    Vote was split between him, Michael Green, Corinne Stockheath and Sebastian Fox
    The old ones are still best
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,041
    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Knowsley = Lab hold

    Clearly some of the Labour defectors voted for Reform, based on the numbers.
    I guess we will never know the reasons why.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,082
    Wasn't Barnsley North one of the 13 seats Reform were supposed to win?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,588
    Sandpit said:

    CON HOLD Champagne. Thanks for the bet @Leon 🍾


    That glass must be enormous.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    KentRising said:

    Flatlander said:

    Barnsley North not going Reform

    Could they end up with just the one MP, Farage in Clacton? Their vote is simply not efficient enough.
    Labour and LDs will benefit from campaigning well and focusing on winnable seats. Tories lose out by focusing instead on running the worst general election campaign in history.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,369
    BobSykes said:

    ITV call Barnsley N for labour. Wasn't that one of the Ref13 on the exit poll?

    Yep lol, think my Barnsley South bet is probably sunk tbh 99% according to exit poll.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    Rumours SNP could conceivably finish fourth in Scotland (wings)
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,316
    @BethRigby

    Lib Dems call win in Justice Secretary Alex Chalk's Cheltenham seat

    A Lib Dem source said: “This is a massive result for the Liberal Democrats and demonstrates the anger that so many Conservative voters have for this Government.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,041
    I will now confidently predict that Labour are going to win the largest majority in their history.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,920
    Leon is going to get a shock when he wakes up.....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,123
    Andy_JS said:

    Wasn't Barnsley North one of the 13 seats Reform were supposed to win?

    Yes, the exit got it badly wrong there.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,082
    Lab vote in Knowsley down from 36,961 to 24,243.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001317
    https://electionresults.parliament.uk/elections/2299
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,123
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Leon is going to get a shock when he wakes up.....

    Low IQ Leon is always wrong.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,545
    Con hold Castle Point.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Wasn't Barnsley North one of the 13 seats Reform were supposed to win?

    Yes, the exit got it badly wrong there.
    In fairness Curtice did say the Reform and SNP numbers were likely to be very volatile.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,041
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Leon is going to get a shock when he wakes up.....

    Low IQ Leon is always wrong.
    He does post a lot of tripe.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,316
    @KateEMcCann

    Tory Lucy Allan has lost her seat to Labour in Telford
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,825
    Andy_JS said:

    Wasn't Barnsley North one of the 13 seats Reform were supposed to win?

    Yes, but on the other hand Ref could pick up one or two seats they're not expected to.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,601
    CON hold Castle Point!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,920
    edited July 5
    Foxy said:

    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    So - has Rishi held on to his seat?

    His first class seat on the next flight to LA? I'd have thought so.
    Flying scheduled? How are the mighty humbled!
    don't worry @RishiSunak we've got a seat for you
    https://x.com/Ryanair/status/1808885241051857103
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,944
    Eastleigh LD GAIN from Con
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,415
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    That Barnsley result is enormous. The exit poll was miles out... 99% chance of RefUK gain and they were nowhere near.

    Do we have a view yet on how the exit poll is holding up?

    Refuk piling up lots of second and third places, but perhaps not going to end up with as many seats as had been thought?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,530
    Sandpit said:

    CON HOLD Champagne. Thanks for the bet @Leon 🍾


    You've already spent your winnings, and then some!
    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    Sandpit said:

    CON HOLD Champagne. Thanks for the bet @Leon 🍾


    You've already spent your winnings, and then some!
    I didn’t even get my winnings. I had Leon donate it to a Ukranian charity when he was in Kiev.
    Cheers to that.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,123
    Nigel Farage will go full stop the steal bullshit when Reform end up with 3 MPs instead of the 13 the exit poll suggeted.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,825
    Tories totally walloped in Telford
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,530
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Leon is going to get a shock when he wakes up.....

    Low IQ Leon is always wrong.
    What was he predicting?
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,161
    edited July 5
    This is looking really good for Labour on a very, very small vote share gain. Even compared to the exits. Super efficient.

    The challenge from the left may still materialise in a few places, but Nuneaton and Barnsley are super results.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 52,822
    Two Con Holds!
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Wasn't Barnsley North one of the 13 seats Reform were supposed to win?

    Yes, the exit got it badly wrong there.
    ITV saying that Reform disowned the candidate there though, so that would be local factor influence depressing the reform vote that exit poll doesn’t factor in
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,097
    Andy_JS said:

    Wasn't Barnsley North one of the 13 seats Reform were supposed to win?

    I cannot tell you Andy how fucking impressed I am with your modelling. It gobsmacked me with the Brexit vote when you called it so early, but this is beyond even that. Well done.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,400
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    I will now confidently predict that Labour are going to win the largest majority in their history.

    Try to keep up
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,316
    Ghedebrav said:

    KentRising said:

    Flatlander said:

    Barnsley North not going Reform

    Could they end up with just the one MP, Farage in Clacton? Their vote is simply not efficient enough.
    Labour and LDs will benefit from campaigning well and focusing on winnable seats. Tories lose out by focusing instead on running the worst general election campaign in history.
    Tbf the Tories really succeeded with their focus on running the worst general election campaign in history.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,726
    Scott_xP said:

    @PeterAdamSmith

    SNP now telling me they think they may have lost all of their seats in Edinburgh, including Joanna Cherry’s.

    that would be seismic
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,052
    edited July 5
    Andy_JS said:

    Wasn't Barnsley North one of the 13 seats Reform were supposed to win?

    RefUK are just really hard to predict, and maybe they will win a couple where they had a 1% chance in the exit poll - it's not like they aren't getting some votes. But it's encouraging - lack of a ground game.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,041
    IanB2 said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    I will now confidently predict that Labour are going to win the largest majority in their history.

    Try to keep up
    Well I'm ahead of the exit poll.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,082
    I said Ref would get 3 seats and still confident they will.
  • GravitationGravitation Posts: 287
    Sandpit said:

    Two Con Holds!

    At least the leadership race will be contested!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 52,822
    biggles said:

    Sandpit said:

    CON HOLD Champagne. Thanks for the bet @Leon 🍾


    That glass must be enormous.
    No-one has standard pub 1/6th of a bottle glasses at home, do they?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,316
    state_go_away said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @PeterAdamSmith

    SNP now telling me they think they may have lost all of their seats in Edinburgh, including Joanna Cherry’s.

    that would be seismic
    And fucking magic !!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,082
    edited July 5
    tyson said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Wasn't Barnsley North one of the 13 seats Reform were supposed to win?

    I cannot tell you Andy how fucking impressed I am with your modelling. It gobsmacked me with the Brexit vote when you called it so early, but this is beyond even that. Well done.
    Thanks, I just did a few seats each day over the last 6 weeks, making a few adjustments every so often, such as when Farage made his Putin comments.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,545
    Telford Con goes from 59% to 21%!!!
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Nigel Farage will go full stop the steal bullshit when Reform end up with 3 MPs instead of the 13 the exit poll suggeted.

    I don’t think we’re as culturally accepting of sore-losery and grievance as the yanks are.

    That said - I reckon electoral reform may well start to get more of a groundswell of support after this election.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,920
    Gravitation said:

    Sandpit said:

    Two Con Holds!

    At least the leadership race will be contested!
    Still don't need more than a standard Uber though to get to and from parliament.
This discussion has been closed.