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Will David Cameron have a better vote share than Keir Starmer? – politicalbetting.com

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  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,729

    Do you totally discount the JL Partners poll with Reform level with Labour among teenage boys?
    I think teenage boys play a small role in general elections.
  • So by now John Curtice pretty much knows the exit poll results.

    https://x.com/tomhfh/status/1808848239241617482
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Andy_JS said:

    They're economically left-wing and socially populist.
    No, they are economically left-wing and socially conservative.

    There is no other party like it.

    I will be voting for them after work.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,161

    Does anyone know how many Tory MPs with a majority of under 1,000 clung on in 1997? I strongly suspect they can be counted on the fingers of no hands.

    Seb Coe was possibly the MP who did best against the tide in that election - and even he saw his 3,000 majority turn to a 3,000 deficit. Doing better than average just won't cut it in this election in a seat like Cheltenham.

    And, only two months ago the Lib Dems wiped out the last Tory councillors in the Borough, so it's not like there is a sign of surprising Tory resilience or Lib Dem weakness in the seat.
    The best Tory defence in 1997 was Wells IIRC

    Checking the figures: Wells had a Tory maj of 6,649 (11.6%) in 1992 and they held it by 528 (0.9%) in 1997, perhaps because Michael Eavis, who founded the Glastonbury festival, was the Lab candidate and got 10,204 votes, thus preventing tactical votes.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,326
    EPG said:

    I think teenage boys play a small role in general elections.
    lol at the pb lefties ignoring “the voters of tomorrow”
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,767
    GIN1138 said:

    Potentially yes, because SKS is no Blair and Labour are no where near as ready for government as they were in 97 (which will become clear very quickly) also, the economy is in a much more perilous state than in 1997. Added to that voters are much more volatile now than they were 20 years ago.

    On the other hand in 1997 Con didn't have a split on the Right like they do now.

    The first thing the next Con leader has to do, before they even think of challenging Labour, is do what @MarqueeMark has correctly said Rishi failed to do, and take on Farage and Reform head on.
    That only benefits Starmer. I fail to see the logic in the Tories fighting Reform for seats they havent a hope of winning but Reform has. Better to cut a deal and go on the attack against a weak government.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,417
    Eabhal said:

    Not sure about that. Lots of knee issues with long time hillwalkers, tendon issues with climbers, elbows for tennis players, shoulders/necks for rugby players... then you have the trades, former soldiers and so on.

    Physiotherapy is so difficult to get on the NHS you have otherwise fit people struggling in their 50s and onwards, ending up on painkillers and worse.
    My vertebrae started to impact on my spinal column. In the neck area, which damages pretty well all activity from the neck down, including balance.
    I’ve been on to the NHS for physio and they’ve given me an app with exercises but it’s by no means the same as having a regular, or even occasional, chat with an actual physio.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,729
    Leon said:

    lol at the pb lefties ignoring “the voters of tomorrow”
    Tomorrow they won't be in their mum's bedroom, they will have jobs and will meet girls / boys / other.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,326
    edited July 2024

    My vertebrae started to impact on my spinal column. In the neck area, which damages pretty well all activity from the neck down, including balance.
    I’ve been on to the NHS for physio and they’ve given me an app with exercises but it’s by no means the same as having a regular, or even occasional, chat with an actual physio.
    There should be plenty soon as physiotherapy becomes one of the few jobs left

    I hope the service improves for you! Sounds a bit rough
  • KnightOutKnightOut Posts: 147
    I always assumed that Dart and Boulter were of roughly equal attractiveness, but watching them play each other, it's not even close. Boulter is fitter by magnitudes.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,729
    edited July 2024
    Leon said:

    Lunch with my agent at the Grouch (the restaurant of which is vastly improved under Mark Hix and the new management: wonderful hake fillet in sorrel and mussel sauce, superb)

    Also the club white is brilliant now

    Er; where was it? Ah yes - she had some tasty gossip about Starmer - if only I could relate it

    Also, she has the same prognosis as many of us. Labour will come in, be fairly ineffective, and the next UK government will be hard right. She’s centrist - she has voted Blair, LD and Tory in her time

    One reason she thinks this: her oldest son. Firmly right wing, andrew Tate listener, likes Farage. Age 17

    Just to extend the youngster sample size a little:

    There's my lad, age 20: Thinks Tate is a dick and can't stand Farage. Voting Labour.
    Partner's daughter, age 23: Also can't stand Tate or Farage. Voting Labour or possibly Green.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,272
    When I voted they asked for ID.

    I have a family member (different constituency) who has recently moved and the polling card came correctly to the new address.

    She is going to use her driving license as ID when she goes to vote but this has her old address on it. She has no passport.

    So I asked the tellers what they would do in these circs and they hadn't a clue. After scratching their heads a bit they said they would need evidence that she has moved address.

    I was surprised by this answer and suspect it is not correct. I don't think the address which is on the driving licence matters as long as the photo shows the correct person.

    Any comments?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,161
    KnightOut said:

    I always assumed that Dart and Boulter were of roughly equal attractiveness, but watching them play each other, it's not even close. Boulter is fitter by magnitudes.

    Good to see we're discussing the most important aspect of women's tennis. 😊
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,210
    eek said:

    That's one of the unknowns of this election, how many people will actually vote?

    In this household all 4 of us have voted but I know my parents aren't going to bother and they usually do vote.
    Round here there is no buzz at all. No posters, no signs, nothing that would let you know an election was ongoing. I’m expecting a low turnout and a good amount of sub 50% seats.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,192

    So by now John Curtice pretty much knows the exit poll results.

    https://x.com/tomhfh/status/1808848239241617482

    Broad shape possibly but given how tight some of the races might end up, he may have quite a lot more work to do than in previous years with a lot more opportunity to undermine his reputation if things aren’t as clearly defined as in previous years.
  • mickydroymickydroy Posts: 316
    Taz said:

    Hi Heathener

    My best wishes to you.

    Today is your day. You have been forecasting what is coming long before it was trendy by following the polls.

    Vindication will be yours I suspect.
    Yes, if the Torys do get an absolute thumping, Heathener called it over a year ago, I must admit I certainly didn't believe her then, and I'm not 100% sure I do now
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,801

    That only benefits Starmer. I fail to see the logic in the Tories fighting Reform for seats they havent a hope of winning but Reform has. Better to cut a deal and go on the attack against a weak government.
    I just don't believe Con will ever win a general election pandering to a Putin sympathizer like Farage.

    The British people are far too sensible.
  • KnightOutKnightOut Posts: 147

    No, they are economically left-wing and socially conservative.

    There is no other party like it.

    I will be voting for them after work.

    Worst of all worlds to me. (Well, on a par with the combination of economically left-wing and socially woke, I suppose).

    I just wish there was a party to vote for that was economically right-wing and socially liberal. But can't see it happening any time soon...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,326

    Just to extend the youngster sample size a little:

    There's my lad, age 20: Thinks Tate is a dick and can't stand Farage. Voting Labour.
    Partner's daughter, age 23: Also can't stand Tate or Farage. Voting Labour or possibly Green.
    Except:


    “Here’s what you need to know about Nigel Farage’s mastery of TikTok”


    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jul/02/nigel-farage-tiktok-stardom-reform-uk-leader-content-creator
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,283
    Stocky said:

    When I voted they asked for ID.

    I have a family member (different constituency) who has recently moved and the polling card came correctly to the new address.

    She is going to use her driving license as ID when she goes to vote but this has her old address on it. She has no passport.

    So I asked the tellers what they would do in these circs and they hadn't a clue. After scratching their heads a bit they said they would need evidence that she has moved address.

    I was surprised by this answer and suspect it is not correct. I don't think the address which is on the driving licence matters as long as the photo shows the correct person.

    Any comments?

    Your address isn’t on your passport so I can’t see how it is relevant on your driving licence.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,337
    No bar charts from the LDs for me in this election, no bar charts from anyone in fact, but even though in Local Election terms the LDs are a strong second and Labour nowhere they didn't even attempt to push that angle.

    Yet Labour, in an leaflet dropped today, do say 'Only Labour can beat the Tories here'. And the source?

    ElectoralCalculus.com 4th June 2024 predicting LDs dropping 5% and Labour up 20%.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    Leon said:

    Except:


    “Here’s what you need to know about Nigel Farage’s mastery of TikTok”


    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jul/02/nigel-farage-tiktok-stardom-reform-uk-leader-content-creator
    I assumed the answer was bot farms pushing him on the algorithm?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,767
    GIN1138 said:

    I just don't believe Con will ever win a general election pandering to a Putin sympathizer like Farage.

    The British people are far too sensible.
    Then they will lose lots of elecions. We see it today in the Red Wall Blue wall split. Southern Tories dont travel well much beyond the prosperous South. In the less well off parts of the country being a Tory is a disadvantage.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    KnightOut said:


    Worst of all worlds to me. (Well, on a par with the combination of economically left-wing and socially woke, I suppose).

    I just wish there was a party to vote for that was economically right-wing and socially liberal. But can't see it happening any time soon...
    We've had precisely what you want since 1997, if by "economically right wing" you mean neo-liberal. And the country is not in a particularly amazing state for all that....
  • My mates the conspiracy theorists are going nuts because of pencils provided in polling booths. They're all smugly telling me I'm a fecking idiot and they take their own (green wax crayons) biros in with them. I got abused because I told them if I was counting the votes, I'd be slinging their ink smeared ballots in the bin if they voted the wrong way, and say they were spoiled papers. I'm a WEF shill, in the pay of Bill Gates or something.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,210
    Leon said:

    lol at the pb lefties ignoring “the voters of tomorrow”
    They asked for proof, got it, then just snarked.

    What a dickhead.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,161
    edited July 2024

    So by now John Curtice pretty much knows the exit poll results.

    https://x.com/tomhfh/status/1808848239241617482

    It's not just Sir John Curtice, it's also Prof Michael Thrasher. They work for BBC and Sky News but cooperate wrt the exit poll.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,417
    Leon said:

    There should be plenty soon as physiotherapy becomes one of the few jobs left

    I hope the service improves for you! Sounds a bit rough
    Thanks. Means my travelling days are done, I think. As the song says “I’ve never seen an arma dill a’dillowing in his arma. And I ‘spect I never will.”
    I’ve cruised down the Upper Mekong, though. And I’ve dived on the Great Barrier Reef. Among others. So I’ve not done too badly.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,210

    Just to extend the youngster sample size a little:

    There's my lad, age 20: Thinks Tate is a dick and can't stand Farage. Voting Labour.
    Partner's daughter, age 23: Also can't stand Tate or Farage. Voting Labour or possibly Green.
    Micro v Macro.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,719
    edited July 2024

    Do you totally discount the JL Partners poll with Reform level with Labour among teenage boys?
    It would be unwise to totally discount it, but it's completely out of line with other age stratified polls including those on issues like immigration and climate change.

    More importantly, and not mentioned in the breathless coverage, the combined boy-girl sample size was 201 of which 98 were boys. So they're deriving a Reform percentage literally from an actual "cent" of respondents. The error bars on that sort of sample are...KLAXON-worthy.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,719

    Your address isn’t on your passport so I can’t see how it is relevant on your driving licence.
    The tellers are wrong. Your ID doesn't need to have an up to date address. Indeed your ID doesn't itself need to be up to date either. It just needs to be a likeness.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,161
    edited July 2024

    No, they are economically left-wing and socially conservative.

    There is no other party like it.

    I will be voting for them after work.
    That's what I wrote originally, believe it or not. They're not standing in my constituency, they have 122 candidates altogether. In all the Sheffield seats they're standing instead of Reform UK in some sort of informal deal.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Candidates_in_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election
  • EScrymgeourEScrymgeour Posts: 141
    test
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,719
    Taz said:

    Micro v Macro.
    Did you see the sample size of the JLP poll?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,096
    Mike Wood might get back in in Dudley South slightly against the head. He's got my colleague's vote at any rate. Reason ?

    Stopped an enormous housing development to the west of Kingswinford apparently. So if he wins it will be down to that evergreen favourite of politicians everywhere NIMBYISM :D
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,337

    My mates the conspiracy theorists are going nuts because of pencils provided in polling booths. They're all smugly telling me I'm a fecking idiot and they take their own (green wax crayons) biros in with them. I got abused because I told them if I was counting the votes, I'd be slinging their ink smeared ballots in the bin if they voted the wrong way, and say they were spoiled papers. I'm a WEF shill, in the pay of Bill Gates or something.

    People make themselves the main character in life, perfectly naturally, and I think it shows with the pencil conspiracy theory, because imagine trying to scale up a fraud rubbing out legitimate votes and replacing the pencil mark, in sufficient numbers to change the results.

    You'd need a lot of people, and you'd have to be slow and thorough about it, because you actually have to rub out quite a bit to remove evidence of the original vote such that people could not spot it. You'd need to co-opt so many people in the process to get at the ballots in the first place, especially since any delay to verification would be picked up quickly.

    If you were going to cheat an election there have to be better ways, stuffing, just faking the numbers etc, but 'They will cross out MY vote' plays more personally.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,801

    Then they will lose lots of elecions. We see it today in the Red Wall Blue wall split. Southern Tories dont travel well much beyond the prosperous South. In the less well off parts of the country being a Tory is a disadvantage.
    Well anyway, what Con do next is an argument for tomorrow and if they fall under 100 seats or lose Official Opposition status it's all a mute point as they'll be effectively finished.

    Their fate is now in the hands of the British public...
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited July 2024
    Labour's social media campaign has been excellent.

    Simple. Effective.

    https://twitter.com/uklabour/status/1808848243373322488

    Works especially well if your device autoplays sound. Less well if you automute, like I do.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,210
    Really interesting thread on council funding which chimes with what, IIRC @eek and @dixiedean have previously discussed and will need addressing promptly by the starmer govt.

    https://x.com/jonneale/status/1808537940395765980?s=61
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 800
    Leon said:

    Lunch with my agent at the Grouch (the restaurant of which is vastly improved under Mark Hix and the new management: wonderful hake fillet in sorrel and mussel sauce, superb)

    Also the club white is brilliant now

    Er; where was it? Ah yes - she had some tasty gossip about Starmer - if only I could relate it

    Also, she has the same prognosis as many of us. Labour will come in, be fairly ineffective, and the next UK government will be hard right. She’s centrist - she has voted Blair, LD and Tory in her time

    One reason she thinks this: her oldest son. Firmly right wing, andrew Tate listener, likes Farage. Age 17

    I don’t always agree with you on here but 100% agree about the improvement of the food at the Groucho under Mark Hicks. The new owners seem to be a bit stingier with the free booze and food at events but it’s an acceptable trade off for the improvements.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,210

    test

    Edge
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,337
    Pulpstar said:

    Mike Wood might get back in in Dudley South slightly against the head. He's got my colleague's vote at any rate. Reason ?

    Stopped an enormous housing development to the west of Kingswinford apparently. So if he wins it will be down to that evergreen favourite of politicians everywhere NIMBYISM :D

    At the hustings I attended only one person suggested brownfield first and stuffing town centre plots with housing might not be enough on its own, or that vague platitudes about building more affordable homes (where, who knows?) was the answer.

    Oddly enough it was the Green. But they were not the actual candidate, who is from Bristol Central, so was just there on behalf of the party generally I guess so perhaps off message.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,210
    ping said:

    Labour's social media campaign has been excellent.

    Simple. Effective.

    https://twitter.com/uklabour/status/1808848243373322488

    Works especially well if your device autoplays sound.

    Yes, very good. Everything the Tories has not been.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,247
    edited July 2024

    The cynic in me says that if electric scooter users had actually walked on these footpaths when they were younger, they might not need the scooter now.
    If you'll forgive me, that's too ambiguous as a comment imo, and confuses categories, and some of us may not be picking up quite what you intend to say. Unfit people is one thing, and we need to distinguish between "electric mobility scooters" (which are regulated mobility aids) and "electric scooters" (which are objects of hatred and anti-social behaviour) in the minds of some people.

    As one point that is not well known, for many push-scooters - or a normal pushbike - are their most effective and most suitable mobility aid.

    For many people becoming mobility impaired is not something they have been able to control - my condition Type 1 diabetes, for example, is essentially random (me: stomach bug killed my pancreas at age 34). And you then have to live with all the complications of managing the condition, and accept that there is a chance that you may end up with damage or blind eyes, no feeling in your hands or feet, and eventually amputations.

    For me that has affected major decisions, from my decision to change pension arrangements because the official line was an expected life expectancy reduction of 15 years, to my decision to live within walking distance of everything necessary as I could end up with no driving license if I have ONE hypo episode that requires third-party assistance. With many, many more along the way.

    There is also that much of our infrastructure is difficult or impossible to use for walking and wheeling; it's a standard experience for disabled people to be tipped out of their wheelchairs or tricycles by unsafe access ramps, or because some unthinking oaf has blocked it with their motor "because I need to - cant you wait or go in the road?", and they are left stranded.

    Had that 8 weeks ago at the main pedestrian access to my local hospital, and all the people wheeling had to go 200m back down the pavement and wheel up the carriageway of the main drive which has 5000-6000 vehicle movements per day. Just because one selfish prat couldn't be bothered to put his Mercedes in a free parking space 20m further away. On gentle challenge it went from "but I need to" to "but I'm not causing a problem" to "fuck off, you prat".

    I'm not challenging you in person particularly, but there's a deep cultural ignorance to be addressed.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,210
    TimS said:

    Did you see the sample size of the JLP poll?
    I believe it was greater than two.and weighted.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,407

    We've had precisely what you want since 1997, if by "economically right wing" you mean neo-liberal. And the country is not in a particularly amazing state for all that....
    I don't think that's true. Perhaps rightish principles have been hinted at, but we've not seen anything approaching a move towards a smaller state and less regulation.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,666
    Andy_JS said:

    If you had to say whether SNP or Tory are going to get most votes in ANME, what would you say at the moment?
    SNP. But I was saying that before. I am now wondering who will get most votes LD or Tory…
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,161
    edited July 2024
    Is it possible to bet anywhere on the Labour lead over Tory being X %? I think it's going to be closer than the polls show (without affecting seats). Betfair Exchange doesn't seem to have this option.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,337
    Taz said:

    Really interesting thread on council funding which chimes with what, IIRC @eek and @dixiedean have previously discussed and will need addressing promptly by the starmer govt.

    https://x.com/jonneale/status/1808537940395765980?s=61

    Councils did have plenty of dead wood and have weathered cuts quite well since 2010, so I don't think enough people realise how precarious many are right now, and whilst the parties have mentioned it a bit in relation to Planning, I don't think the common people have any concept of what is going on. When planning departments are in local news people default to casual accusations of corruption and a belief the purpose of planning systems is to stop things, not deliver things in a good way.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,326
    Stereodog said:

    I don’t always agree with you on here but 100% agree about the improvement of the food at the Groucho under Mark Hicks. The new owners seem to be a bit stingier with the free booze and food at events but it’s an acceptable trade off for the improvements.
    Finally some real consensus on PB on amajor issue of the day

    The food at the Groucho under Mark Hix is a vast improvement

    Now maybe we can move on to more areas where the is room for accord. Like: Business Class in Eva Air keeps on getting better, or the Whitsundays are the best place for helisurfing
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,337

    SNP. But I was saying that before. I am now wondering who will get most votes LD or Tory…
    Whilst I hope you do very well, I am disappointed the Tory mess looks like meaning the SNP will hold onto another seat.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,161
    Pulpstar said:

    Mike Wood might get back in in Dudley South slightly against the head. He's got my colleague's vote at any rate. Reason ?

    Stopped an enormous housing development to the west of Kingswinford apparently. So if he wins it will be down to that evergreen favourite of politicians everywhere NIMBYISM :D

    There's a new constituency of Kingswinford and South Staffordshire. Dudley South and North become just Dudley.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited July 2024
    Pulpstar said:

    Mike Wood might get back in in Dudley South slightly against the head. He's got my colleague's vote at any rate. Reason ?

    Stopped an enormous housing development to the west of Kingswinford apparently. So if he wins it will be down to that evergreen favourite of politicians everywhere NIMBYISM :D

    He has a notional majority of nearly 30,000 in the new seat, he's the 7th safest Tory
  • Stocky said:

    When I voted they asked for ID.

    I have a family member (different constituency) who has recently moved and the polling card came correctly to the new address.

    She is going to use her driving license as ID when she goes to vote but this has her old address on it. She has no passport.

    So I asked the tellers what they would do in these circs and they hadn't a clue. After scratching their heads a bit they said they would need evidence that she has moved address.

    I was surprised by this answer and suspect it is not correct. I don't think the address which is on the driving licence matters as long as the photo shows the correct person.

    Any comments?

    As others have said, this is sheer nonsense. ID is, as the name suggests, to confirm your identity, not your address.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,161
    Stereodog said:

    I don’t always agree with you on here but 100% agree about the improvement of the food at the Groucho under Mark Hicks. The new owners seem to be a bit stingier with the free booze and food at events but it’s an acceptable trade off for the improvements.
    Is it open to everyone or members only?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,326
    148grss said:

    I assumed the answer was bot farms pushing him on the algorithm?
    No, he is genuinely popular. The Guardian - presumably through gritted teeth - has actually run a series of articles on this: the real popularity of Farage - and other European populists - on social media, and they dexterity in using it
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,238
    mwadams said:

    Whereabouts (if you don't mind saying)
    Ancaster, on the Lincolnshire edge. We have an ongoing site just to the south of the Roman town on Ermine Street.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,210
    kle4 said:

    Councils did have plenty of dead wood and have weathered cuts quite well since 2010, so I don't think enough people realise how precarious many are right now, and whilst the parties have mentioned it a bit in relation to Planning, I don't think the common people have any concept of what is going on. When planning departments are in local news people default to casual accusations of corruption and a belief the purpose of planning systems is to stop things, not deliver things in a good way.
    At the moment the councils that have effectively gone bust, like Brum, Notts and Woking, are down to their own incompetence over many years.

    I get the impression many councils on the verge of bankruptcy now are those that generally been reasonably well managed previously.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,210

    SNP. But I was saying that before. I am now wondering who will get most votes LD or Tory…
    ‘Winning here’
  • PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 587
    edited July 2024
    The ‘Most seats without Labour’ market was about 4.5 for the Lib Dems for weeks.

    In the last few days, it had drifted out to 7.5.

    Today it’s started creeping back up. Currently 5.1.

    Probably just noise, but still. Anecdotally I’m hearing from tons of friends and acquaintances voting Lib Dem for the first time today.

    I have some long term trading bets on this. Have decided to stick with it until the end and just hope I get lucky, instead of trading some out.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,161

    Turnout really is shite. It’s the look on their faces when you ask how it compares with previous elections.

    The former Banff and Buchan seat had a bit of a history of low turnouts, which is pretty unusual for a small town / rural constituency.

    1983: 67.0%
    1987: 70.8%
    1992: 71.2%
    1997: 68.7%
    2001: 54.4%
    2005: 56.6%
    2010: 59.8%

    Maybe there's always been a certain sense of political disillusionment in that area.
  • Looking at betting moves the conservative 100 to 149 and 50 to 99 seat bands now show as equally likely.
    But the main move is conservative vs reform most votes where reform have come in dramtically to 3/1 now. I think they were about 8/1 yesterday. This shows reform may well be overperforming.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,337
    Taz said:

    At the moment the councils that have effectively gone bust, like Brum, Notts and Woking, are down to their own incompetence over many years.

    I get the impression many councils on the verge of bankruptcy now are those that generally been reasonably well managed previously.
    Yes, things are close to a tipping point but the big stories are the egregious councils.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,527

    The ‘Most seats without Labour’ market was about 4.5 for the Lib Dems for weeks.

    In the last few days, it had drifted out to 7.5.

    Today it’s started creeping back up. Currently 5.1.

    Probably just noise, but still.

    I have some long term trading bets on this. Have decided to stick with it until the end and just hope I get lucky. Anecdotally I’m hearing from tons of friends and acquaintances voting Lib Dem for the first time today.

    The election post-mortem might attribute a lot of Lib Dem seats to Starmer's refusal to pander to EU-philes.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,247

    Thanks. Means my travelling days are done, I think. As the song says “I’ve never seen an arma dill a’dillowing in his arma. And I ‘spect I never will.”
    I’ve cruised down the Upper Mekong, though. And I’ve dived on the Great Barrier Reef. Among others. So I’ve not done too badly.
    As a note (which may or may not help), do you have other channels to get a physio?

    If I need one I can get X sessions a year through my health cash plan, for example.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,326
    Andy_JS said:

    Is it open to everyone or members only?
    It's a members club but Hix has other restaurants open to all, eg in Lyme Regis

    https://theoysterandfishhouse.co.uk/

    He's really good with fish.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,852

    Will that rob the voters of their ability to make her the first woman President? They will just be rubber stamping it.
    It would rob voters of their ability to make Kamala Harris the 47th president, although they knew there was a chance this would happen when they voted to make Joe Biden the 46th. Same with LBJ after JFK was assassinated.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,096
    edited July 2024

    He has a notional majority of nearly 30,000 in the new seat, he's the 7th safest Tory
    Lol I looked up https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Dudley South - yes Kingswinford and South Staffs is a Tory shoo in.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,096
    Taz said:

    At the moment the councils that have effectively gone bust, like Brum, Notts and Woking, are down to their own incompetence over many years.

    I get the impression many councils on the verge of bankruptcy now are those that generally been reasonably well managed previously.
    Notts council isn't bust. Nottingham is, but you can't abbreviate it to Notts to my mind.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,093

    A friend just posted up a variation on the dogs at polling stations meme.


    Bonus points for the first Segway photo.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,010
    Taz said:

    Lots of Tories will sit on their hands.

    I’m more interested in if labour lose votes compared to 2019 and lose share and how their vote efficiency improves moving from Corbyn to Starmer. Labours polling has been falling from low forties to late thirties over the last week.

    A thumping labour majority on a smaller vote and smaller percentage vote than they got in 2019 would make for a good argument for PR.

    Who's going to make it though?

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,442

    NEW THREAD

  • EScrymgeourEScrymgeour Posts: 141
    Bromsgrove Lib Dems £2 100/1

    Shropshire South Lib Dems £5 13/5

    Maidenhead Lib Dems £5 11/4

    Frome and East Somerset Lib Dems £10 7/4

    ANME SNP £25 13/8
  • The election post-mortem might attribute a lot of Lib Dem seats to Starmer's refusal to pander to EU-philes.
    Yes I think Starmer will totally 180 on Europe post election, once the majority is secured. But would be funny if his comments yesterday on not rejoining in his lifetime, mean that the Lib Dems and Labour both pincer the Tories in seats more effectively somehow.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,877
    edited July 2024
    Been to vote in Flatland Central. Pointless really - the Red Team will accumulate > 50%. I have still not seen a single election poster in the constituency and voting was anything but brisk.

    Our soon to be new MP was previously a prison officer but it seems to be a union connection that got her the job which is not particularly encouraging.

    I don't really want to be responsible for what comes next so I voted Con because their candidate isn't terrible and the Lib Dems are absent.

    Reform are likely to be competing for second with the Tories in any case and with the longer term in mind I'd rather they were beaten into third (this is probably a forlorn hope).

    If it was a marginal seat I'd have had a much more difficult choice.

    If Starmer surprises on the upside I'll be as pleased as anyone but I can't say I want him to have a 250 seat majority on 38% of the vote.
  • Given the dramatic shortening of Reform most seats vs conservatives im going to have a bet on them at 3/1. Someone may know something or it may be noise we will find out soon enough.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,417
    MattW said:

    As a note (which may or may not help), do you have other channels to get a physio?

    If I need one I can get X sessions a year through my health cash plan, for example.
    Thanks; there's an excellent local private physio practice, but last time I talked to him he was reluctant to get involved, since he mainly deals in sport and other activity related problems.
    Been thinking of giving him another call, though, since the situation is slowly improving.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,161
    The Boulter / Dart match is turning into a real slugfest. 8 points all in the final set tiebreaker.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,210
    Pulpstar said:

    Notts council isn't bust. Nottingham is, but you can't abbreviate it to Notts to my mind.
    Notts in your view, then 👍
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,247

    Thanks; there's an excellent local private physio practice, but last time I talked to him he was reluctant to get involved, since he mainly deals in sport and other activity related problems.
    Been thinking of giving him another call, though, since the situation is slowly improving.
    For your circs, your local branch of Age UK may be a good source of advice to find local non-sports-focused physios.

    They may have a staffer or two based in the local hospital who's core role is likely to be advising on adaptations, but who may be able to signpost you usefully in a short telephone call.

    But it's all quite tactical.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,272

    As others have said, this is sheer nonsense. ID is, as the name suggests, to confirm your identity, not your address.
    It's worrying that the tellers gave an incorrect response.
  • KnightOutKnightOut Posts: 147
    Omnium said:

    I don't think that's true. Perhaps rightish principles have been hinted at, but we've not seen anything approaching a move towards a smaller state and less regulation.
    Quite. The closest we came to it was Coalition 'Austerity' (which barely scratched the surface in reality) and other ideas from that time like streamlining quangos and abolishing two pieces of legislation for every new one drafted, which were quietly forgotten.

    The state is bigger than its ever been, tax take is higher than ever, and the system is more complicated and unwieldy than at any point in history.

    Evidence for genuine economic libertarianism is scant at best and merely calling something 'right wing' doesn't make it so, whatever the left choose to believe...
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,442
    Heathener said:

    And also Draper v Norrie.

    Could Wimbledon really not have sorted this out with some British seeding?
    Are you for real? Seeding is done based on ranking points coming in. Unseeded players are then drawn out of a hat, with the route to the final determined at the start (unlike say the FA Cup in football which redraws each round).

    Personally I do not like seeding at all - I'd rather a random draw, but seeding is better for keeping the top players apart until the second week.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,442

    Before the introduction of the ID requirement, possession of a polling card was not taken as proof of ID - indeed, you didn't need to bring it. Saying "I am Sir Norfolk Passmore, and I am here to vote", was taken as perfectly sufficient. As, indeed, giving your name is perfectly sufficient for a range of circumstances.

    Personation was always vanishingly rare because it's very hard to get away with - ID requirement or not. A lot of places have CCTV, and you ran a huge risk of polling staff or other in the queue saying "Hang on a moment, that ain't Sir Norfolk..."

    The ID requirement was a bureaucratic nonsense designed to marginally reduce turnout by people who are fairly unlikely to vote Tory. It was an expensive solution to a problem that nobody at any point could show existed.
    And yet many if not most other countries use voter ID. I think for something as important as the vote, you should have to at least do as much as when you pick up mail from the post office. As long as access to said ID is easy, then what is the issue? If someone is so disengaged that they don't understand the need for ID, then frankly I'm not sure we want their vote (many will disagree).
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,970

    I quite like the German system whereby about half of the MPs are elected directly by their constituents, while the other half of the MPs are "top-ups" from party lists to make the total numbers roughly proportional. This means that a direct link is retained between constituencies and their representative, while minority parties (and hence viewpoints) also get proper representation. After all, we are, these days, identified as least as much by our worldviews as our geographical locations.
    And you can see such a system in operation for the London Assembly
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,970
    kle4 said:

    They're completely bonkers is what they are, I detected no underlying thread behind the policies in their manifesto (which was at least better designed than the others).

    The biggest thing about them is they are really anti-immigrant.
    It was just a brand lying about in the gutter, which someone has picked up and turned into something else.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    Taz said:

    Really interesting thread on council funding which chimes with what, IIRC @eek and @dixiedean have previously discussed and will need addressing promptly by the starmer govt.

    https://x.com/jonneale/status/1808537940395765980?s=61

    There is so much misinformation about local government and planning it is painful. The idea that senior planning officers have been made redundant as the result of austerity is not consistent with the fact they can be paid up to £150k per year working as contractors with near unlimited demand from Councils, even more for managers/senior managers. That is a reflection of the fact that the government have made the job so impossible with their insane policies and laws along with toxic politics that few people have the skills/patience to do it anymore. Recruiting 300 more will change little because many will leave the profession and you can't force them to stay. The actual problem is probably that many are just retiring because they are old and they are not being replaced because the job is so grim.





  • FlannerFlanner Posts: 437

    And yet many if not most other countries use voter ID. I think for something as important as the vote, you should have to at least do as much as when you pick up mail from the post office. As long as access to said ID is easy, then what is the issue? If someone is so disengaged that they don't understand the need for ID, then frankly I'm not sure we want their vote (many will disagree).
    A year ago, Jacob Rees-Mogg publicly accepted that the photo ID rules were simple gerrymandering. And possibly worse: they were counterproductive because they suppressed the votes of the wrong people.

    https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/voter-id-is-a-gerrymandering-scheme-admits-jacob-rees-mogg/

    It's absurd to defend a self-defeating stunt now under attack from one of the shower introducing it. And as for this claptrap about "other countries use it".... As my old mum (RIP) used to put it "if everyone else stuck their hand in a fire, would you?"
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,417
    Voted a couple of hours ago here in Ilford North, and it seemed really quiet. Pretty certain SKY news were outside my polling station in the morning (caption just called it "East London"), but they had long gone by the time I turned up!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,009
    kle4 said:

    Whilst I hope you do very well, I am disappointed the Tory mess looks like meaning the SNP will hold onto another seat.
    Boo Hoo Sucks, stick your Westminster sockpuppets where the sun does not shine
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,009
    Stocky said:

    It's worrying that the tellers gave an incorrect response.
    Why, they are jsut some dork picked up off the street for a days work, probably had 30 minutes training on very basics.
This discussion has been closed.