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Final Survation MRP predicts a truly terrible night for the SNP – politicalbetting.com
Final Survation MRP predicts a truly terrible night for the SNP – politicalbetting.com
Get the data: https://t.co/mjYqCxUrZj
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Show me what burying the lede looks like.
Something is up, I am not sure what yet.
Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, former leader of the DUP, is to face additional historical sex offence charges in court on Wednesday.
Donaldson, 61, is expected to appear at Newry magistrates’ court for a preliminary enquiry (PE) hearing to establish if there is sufficient evidence to send him for trial.
During previous court hearings, Donaldson had faced 11 holding charges brought by police.
However, an evidence file has since been reviewed by the Public Prosecution Service (PPS) and the former DUP leader will now face 18 charges.
He will face one charge of rape, four of gross indecency and 13 charges of indecent assault. The charges span a time period between 1985 and 2008.
The previous holding charges will be withdrawn in court on Wednesday.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/07/02/former-dup-leader-sir-jeffrey-donaldson-sex-offence-charges/
If Sir Keir truly is a lucky general then Nicola Sturgeon gets charged tomorrow.
That’s perilously close to extinction for the Tories. A fate has never been so richly deserved
I simply don’t buy its projection especially with a likely late swing from Reform to the Tories .
If Lab get that much of a Majority with less votes than Corbyn in 2017 I will be totally shocked.
Swingback underway but far too late to save the Tories (blue ones) a terrible night.
I see this as an outlier - if all the stars aligned for Labour this is a conceivable option.
I am not in the habit of Eating Hats, but I would be astonished if the Tories don't get over 100 seats
As one of PB’s two resident organists I’m willing to forego my usual rate for the funeral.
I do think Labour could come somewhere between 37 and 42 however.
How can you rely on a survey when the polling was done over close to a three week period?
MRPs are ridiculous.
Just because it’s a big swing doesn’t mean the poll is unreliable.
Also, Survation I think have one of the best records going in recent elections.
1. Reform 2 seats, but neither of them Farage, and the two rapidly falling out with each other
2. SNP losing half their seats or more
3. Conservatives under 100 but with Rishi getting home; leaving him unable to disappear to California and facing the humiliation of PMQs each week, and a squabbling ragbag behind him
4. Significant success for the Lib Dems, certainly third party, and possibly better
5. George Galloway losing
6. And last but not least, success for a personal friend, Dr David Nicholl standing for the Lib Dems in Bromsgrove. A fine man who would make a superb MP
Which is fair, no one should just trust them uncritically and people have pointed out how the constituency level projections can miss important local context and information. I'm predicting the Tories to be somewhere between 85-115 and even I cannot quite believe they would drop as low as some of these are suggesting, especially since Labour might well dip just below 40% of the vote.
But I don't know that they will be humiliated precisely. If the Tories get 120 instead of a predicted 70 that would be a long way out, but they will be doing so badly only anoraks will notice, and next time a new tweaked methodology would get people just as excited - it's too visual and engaging to ignore.
We know in 51 hours
This year, they certainly are not herding.
We cannot then criticise pollsters as BS just because they are outside what results we consider comfortable.
Fourteen of the forty five houses on it get CAM delivered to them. I think it stands for Cambridge Alumni Magazine
There can't be many streets outside of Cambridge with that ratio of CAs
A delay of one week could have avoided a mess.
Incidentally:
1979-1997 Conservative - ~18 years
1997-2010 Labour - ~13 years
2010-2024 Coalition / Conservative - ~14 years.
I think a Labour government will be in for at least three terms; not the least because the Tories will be in no position to challenge them in the next term.
Okay, if you think Labour are winning around 334 seats - bet on NOM and/or Labour 300-350 right now, and by Friday you’ll have a small fortune.
In 2017 the MRP did call it right when few others did.
In 2019 the first one was accurate but the second was not.
I think it’s because an hour ago, a poll showed Trump 49 Harris 47 - Harris doing better than Biden against Trump - and Lloyd Doggett, a Dem member of the House calling on Biden to step down.
The timing just *feels* wrong to me but as you said, thems the breaks.
*giggles quietly*
I can believe it. A party confident of sweeping ANME does not choose with 2 days to go to demand fealty from Labour and LibDem voters.
Thing is, you still can't trust the constituency level data. We can all point at seats where the prediction doesn't look remotely like what is on the ground. So we know it won't be this. But even if it's *close* to this...
The result may just be some of their readers feeling freer to vote for Reform again, now that it doesn't look so apolocalyptic for them ; and which might in fact not be right, according to these latest polls
Lab 41% Con 32% LD 18% gave Lab 412 seats Con 166 seats LD 52 seats in 2001
Lab 43% Con 31% LD 17% gave Lab 418 seats Con 165 seats LD 46 seats in 1997
The best polls for the Conservatives in the last couple of weeks have put them on 24%; the average is more like 21%.
If the blue team are getting that few votes, how many seats is it reasonable for them to expect?
The MRP outputs look bonkers, but that's in large part because the vote shares look bonkers. They're just consistent with every other bonkers poll over the last eighteen months and all the bonkers by-elections and bonkers local elections.
Which is a fair verdict on the bonkers government we have had recently.
(Talking of bonkers, the latest Rosindellgram is all about how Kahn is going to take over Romford if we don't re-elect our local MP. Which I don't think is how anything works...)
19 point Labour lead
As you know, my forecast is drastically different from this last Survation MRP, but I am thinking.. "what if they are right though?"
I wonder what happened to Eadric? Doubtless he joined a commune in Wales and is earning an honest living knitting caftans.
I think both are true but not necessarily to the extent that Survation is implying here.
We saw it a bit with Labour in 2010, before they went all-in in 2015.
The Conservatives really shouldn't have been let out in public from 1997 to about 2003.
Labour went off the deep end when they elected Foot in 1980.
Before that, I don't know. Rather sporting of the departing government to give their replacement a free run next time.
Labour 255
Lib Dems 59.
Rest 29.
All evidence says that the Tories are going to get trounced beyond even the worst fears a month ago, and will be lucky to get 100 seats.
Labour 447 - 517
Tory 34!! - 99
Lib Dems 49 - 73
Reform 1 - 16
There is a lot of scope for things to be even worse than we could ever have imagined for the Tories if they are unlucky in some of those seats.
Sam Freedman
@Samfr
·
46m
Looking at the probabilities this MRP has a 47% chance of Ed Davey being LOTO.
https://x.com/Samfr/status/1808199513028678140