Current flap re: UK postal voting in the light of USA vote-by-mail:
> In USA prior to 2020 general election, lots of coverage in American media concerning problems with United States Postal Service (USPS) which is a quasi-government whatever-you-call-it. Problems both long-term AND exacerbated by Trump administration screw-ups (some accidental, others deliberate).
> In UK prior to 2024 general, sudden spike (if not frenzy) in media coverage of Royal Mail's Horizon scandal, along with other issues concerning deterioration (if PB's any indication) of basic postal service.
> In USA attacks by growing numbers of Republican politicos, pundits, activists on absentee and vote-by-mail as alleged conduits of electoral corruption (amplified by ramping & related disinformation) with effect of making many GOP voters reluctant to vote via the mail, and also making many Dems concerned whether Trump-inspired sabotage of USPS could disenfranchise them; in turn this led lost of Republicans to wait until Election Day to vote AND Democrats to either vote earlier via mail OR use ballot boxes and early in-person voting. My own guess is that Dems benefited more than Reps from this dynamic.
> In WA State where all elections are conducted via vote-by-mail, the Secretary of State and local county auditors have close & frequent contacts with USPS managers, in order to respond to problems that arise in mail ballots out to voters, and with voters mailing them back to election authorities. AND even better, to plan and prepare for massive numbers of individual postal ballots moving both directions through the system - ballots that need to be properly processed, indeed expedited, in order to enfranchise voters, guard against error AND tampering, and (lest we forget) move all that mail down the line so that BlancheLivermore & etc. can get it where it needs to go.
> In UK, there is relative absence (I think) of MAGA-GOP anti-postalism (though maybe NOT on PB) so that's not much of a factor. But appears to be growing angst about postal votes NOT getting counted because they're stuck on a truck somewhere on the M1.
Survation MRP today and their ‘final call’ MRP tomorrow will be interesting and informative hopefully
Also when are we getting our final yougov?
Final YouGov MRP tomorrow and I'd imagine there will be a final regular voting intention poll in the works as well (maybe that will be released later?)
LAB 468 (41%) CON 69 (22%) LIB DEM 67 (10%) REFUK 6 (16%) GREEN 3 (6%) SNP 15
Labour Majority 286
Lib Dems to finish 2nd in seats without Labour has drifted out to 7.6 and I really like it on these poll showings. Seems like it really doesn’t need a huge amount to line up to come off, even if it looks slightly less likely than when the Tories were polling in the teens
Unless you Baxter with UNS:
LAB 432 CON 142 LIB D 40 Ref 0 Green 1 SNP 13
Highlighting that how this GE’s swing falls will be absolutely critical.
For the Conservative Party. Not to the election result.
"A Workers Party of Britain candidate said he was "fearful for his life" after his son was attacked while canvassing for him.
Wajad Burkey, the party’s general election candidate for Sutton Coldfield, said his son had a head injury after being "beaten up" and was being treated in hospital. He has suspended his campaign.
West Midlands Police said a man was attacked by a group with a baseball bat on Beaconsfield Road in Sutton Coldfield on Sunday."
LAB 468 (41%) CON 69 (22%) LIB DEM 67 (10%) REFUK 6 (16%) GREEN 3 (6%) SNP 15
Labour Majority 286
Lib Dems to finish 2nd in seats without Labour has drifted out to 7.6 and I really like it on these poll showings. Seems like it really doesn’t need a huge amount to line up to come off, even if it looks slightly less likely than when the Tories were polling in the teens
It's interesting that the LDs continue to have low numbers when all the signs are they're doing well in their targets. Their vote cratering in non-target seats may well make it easier for them to come 2nd in total seats. So counter-intuitively a reason to back them for 2nd W/O Labour
She’s gone from the mid teens to the mid 30 percent. In one election. A ginormous leap
Also see this about Bardella, from the same FT article
“Driving much of the change is Le Pen’s 28-year old protégé Jordan Bardella, who appeals to women and does not have the baggage of the Le Pen name.”
Women - younger women - are shifting to the RN. Despite the mewlings of geriatric thermos-freak and self declared anarchist @Heathener, sitting under her tartan blankie on the top deck of her hipster revolutionary bus heading into suburban Sidmouth, I am right. The young are moving to the hard right
Yes, the claim that 'we have already done that' with Brexit is nonsense. Brexit was a) driven by the old, b) about one specific issue, and c) arguably didn't really entail any sort of change of view: the British had always been pretty Eurosceptic anyway and while there was probably a majority in support of the EU as it was circa 1987 or 1992 or even 2005, I don't think in retrospect there was ever really support for the EU as it was post Lisbon. It certainly wasn't a rightwards shift, still less one driven by the young.
Well Brexit was a (failed) project of the populist right (both inside and outside the Tory Party) and to the extent we have a certain amount of 'populist right energy' in the UK it has absorbed and stunted it rather than fed the flames. France is France but there doesn't seem to be much appetite for more of that sort of stuff here. The opposite in fact. Landslide majorities for a politician like Keir Starmer don't happen in countries gagging for a hard right strongman.
Except of course you fall at the first hurdle because Brexit has not failed. We have left the EU and will not be returning.
Yes it happened alright. If we just consider it as an event rather than a change then it can neither succeed nor fail. There's something in that but it's not how it was pitched or is usually discussed.
It was usually discussed as an existential catastrophe and an ELE for the British economy. If that's what you were expecting I suppose you could say that it's failed to live up to its billing.
Well give it time. It's more a slow poison than a nuclear bomb.
So you're predicting that Starmer's government will fail on the economy?
I'm hoping for a sterling job on damage limitation over the next decade or so.
Sources: Democratic governors held a call yesterday afternoon...
Just governors – no staffs – no one from campaign or WH...
Organized by Gov Tim Walz of Minnesota for the DGA...
On the call Dem. governors expressed concern about what's going on with the president
They know if they come forward publicly with concern that likely will cause Biden to dig in more
They were also surprised none of them had heard from him (!)
Did they regularly hear from him before?
The next week or so will be crucial: will enough pressure be placed on Biden that he decides to withdraw, or will he remain the nominee dragging his party down?
(FWIW, I don't think it is impossible for Biden to win. I think the Supreme Court has done a massive favour to the Democrats, first with Roe v Wade, next with Presidential immunity. The two of these are likely to be big drivers of turnout for the Democrats. That said, I'm sure the Dems would do better with Whitmer, Ossoff or Buttigieg as candidate.)
On UNS Sir John Curtice is forecasting a result closer to what Michael Howard got in 2005 for Sunak than what Major got in 1997 and Hague got in 2001. On an MRP forecast though Curtice says the Tory result could be even worse than 1997
'Sir John Curtice projects 370 Labour seats, 191 Tory seats and 34 LD and 34 SNP seats, 2 Plaid, 1 Green and 0 Reform on universal national swing based on analysis of 8 recent polls.
However on an MRP change the results look significantly different, with Curtice saying Labour could then get 447 seats, the Tories 98, the LDs 53, the SNP 21, Reform 8 and the Greens and Plaid 2 each' https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cl7y2xj728do
So he doesnt know.
Here's my regular reminder that if one methodology gives one result and another gives another, the truth is not in splitting the difference, the truth is that one of them is wrong. We now have to decide whether polls+UNS is right, or MRP is right.
Or neither, because something non-uniform is happening, but not based on the assumptions in the MRP model.
Curtice, good as he is doesn't know, and he thought Labour was going to win in Rochdale ! But at 10 PM he will know.
Even more tantalising than that he will start to know during the day, and will probably have a good idea several hours earlier.
Current flap re: UK postal voting in the light of USA vote-by-mail:
> In USA prior to 2020 general election, lots of coverage in American media concerning problems with United States Postal Service (USPS) which is a quasi-government whatever-you-call-it. Problems both long-term AND exacerbated by Trump administration screw-ups (some accidental, others deliberate).
> In UK prior to 2024 general, sudden spike (if not frenzy) in media coverage of Royal Mail's Horizon scandal, along with other issues concerning deterioration (if PB's any indication) of basic postal service.
> In USA attacks by growing numbers of Republican politicos, pundits, activists on absentee and vote-by-mail as alleged conduits of electoral corruption (amplified by ramping & related disinformation) with effect of making many GOP voters reluctant to vote via the mail, and also making many Dems concerned whether Trump-inspired sabotage of USPS could disenfranchise them; in turn this led lost of Republicans to wait until Election Day to vote AND Democrats to either vote earlier via mail OR use ballot boxes and early in-person voting. My own guess is that Dems benefited more than Reps from this dynamic.
> In WA State where all elections are conducted via vote-by-mail, the Secretary of State and local county auditors have close & frequent contacts with USPS managers, in order to respond to problems that arise in mail ballots out to voters, and with voters mailing them back to election authorities. AND even better, to plan and prepare for massive numbers of individual postal ballots moving both directions through the system - ballots that need to be properly processed, indeed expedited, in order to enfranchise voters, guard against error AND tampering, and (lest we forget) move all that mail down the line so that BlancheLivermore & etc. can get it where it needs to go.
> In UK, there is relative absence (I think) of MAGA-GOP anti-postalism (though maybe NOT on PB) so that's not much of a factor. But appears to be growing angst about postal votes NOT getting counted because they're stuck on a truck somewhere on the M1.
On your second point, Horizon is a Post Office issue, FA to do with the Royal Mail.
Redfield final call Labour leads the Conservatives by 19% in our final poll.
🇬🇧 Westminster Voting Intention (28 June - 2 July):
Labour 41% (-1) Conservative 22% (+3) Reform UK 16% (-2) Liberal Democrat 10% (-1) Green 6% (+1) SNP 3% (+1) Other 2% (–)
Changes +/- 26-27 Jun
redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…
Looks like a late Ref > Con switch is happening?
I feel like Reform will drop to the mid teens, Tories between 20-25, away from the worst predictions of sub 20 but not by much.
LDs seem rooted to 10-12, they have a low ceiling thesedays.
I think the LDs will outperform slightly, getting 12-13% on the night.
Years of disappointments with Lib Dem performances have taught me to trust the polls rather than my wishcasting hunches. Or rather, trust them if they're going down, ignore them if they're going up.
I suspect the LDs will outperform (slightly) in terms of votes, and underperform in seats. I think the Conservative vote share increase is very real, and they will end up on 25-27%, and will get 160 or so seats, while Reform drops back to vote share partity - or maybe slightly worse - with the LDs.)
Mr Sunak is having a laugh. IF 30,000 people vote Labour or Lib Dem and not Tory there will not be any Tory seats, that is how daft these suggestions are.. All the recent polls are supported by local by election results. It is going to be a slaughter.
The Liberal victory of 1906 was variously described at the time as an “avalanche”, a “wave”, a “landslide”, and a “deluge” – although George Whiteley, the Liberal Chief Whip, drew on the description of St Paul’s shipwreck in Acts 27:14 to describe it as “a veritable Euroclydon”, which isn’t a phrase you hear much these days from MPs talking to their constituents.
LAB 468 (41%) CON 69 (22%) LIB DEM 67 (10%) REFUK 6 (16%) GREEN 3 (6%) SNP 15
Labour Majority 286
Lib Dems to finish 2nd in seats without Labour has drifted out to 7.6 and I really like it on these poll showings. Seems like it really doesn’t need a huge amount to line up to come off, even if it looks slightly less likely than when the Tories were polling in the teens
It's interesting that the LDs continue to have low numbers when all the signs are they're doing well in their targets. Their vote cratering in non-target seats may well make it easier for them to come 2nd in total seats. So counter-intuitively a reason to back them for 2nd W/O Labour
How many target seats do you mean? Imagine if it's 30 seats and they're up 10 points in each of them and static on all the others... that's below a 0.5 point rise nationally.
I'm not saying those are the right numbers, just illustrating how a powerful seat effect could come from a negligible VI change if it's extremely efficient.
LAB 468 (41%) CON 69 (22%) LIB DEM 67 (10%) REFUK 6 (16%) GREEN 3 (6%) SNP 15
Labour Majority 286
Lib Dems to finish 2nd in seats without Labour has drifted out to 7.6 and I really like it on these poll showings. Seems like it really doesn’t need a huge amount to line up to come off, even if it looks slightly less likely than when the Tories were polling in the teens
It's interesting that the LDs continue to have low numbers when all the signs are they're doing well in their targets. Their vote cratering in non-target seats may well make it easier for them to come 2nd in total seats. So counter-intuitively a reason to back them for 2nd W/O Labour
I agree a lot. Everything is telling us that people are more intelligently sorting between Labour and the Lib Dems than ever. I agree with others above that it's hard to use Baxter or anything else with these conditions but I do think the fundamentals for the Lib Dems are good.
The Tories, as expected, are doing better as people move away from recording a protest to actually deciding who they will vote to lead the country for the next 5 years.
That coupled with that Tories usually turnout, imo suggests going to be closer than we think.
Speaking of UK postal voting 2024, IF approx 15% of eventual actual voters go postal, and about 50% of requested have been returned, does that mean that 7.5% or thereabouts of the total votes, are already in the can?
Am guessing that UK official & thus unofficial reporting on this is pretty hit-or-miss? Even more so than in US, where system is even more decentralized BUT most states & election jurisdictions (esp larger ones) have an established process for reporting absentee, early voting and/or vote-by-mail returns.
LAB 468 (41%) CON 69 (22%) LIB DEM 67 (10%) REFUK 6 (16%) GREEN 3 (6%) SNP 15
Labour Majority 286
If the Tories outpoll the LDs by 12% but only get 2 more seats I will, in the words of Paddy Ashdown, eat my hat.
Baxter is pretty broken, IMHO.
Not really, Lib Dem vote variation is really high. Remember the Lib Dems lose tonnes of deposits whereas the Conservatives will be getting lots of seats round 20%
LAB 468 (41%) CON 69 (22%) LIB DEM 67 (10%) REFUK 6 (16%) GREEN 3 (6%) SNP 15
Labour Majority 286
Lib Dems to finish 2nd in seats without Labour has drifted out to 7.6 and I really like it on these poll showings. Seems like it really doesn’t need a huge amount to line up to come off, even if it looks slightly less likely than when the Tories were polling in the teens
Unless you Baxter with UNS:
LAB 432 CON 142 LIB D 40 Ref 0 Green 1 SNP 13
Wouldn't it be funny if after all the sound and fury Ref got no seats?
It would be very funny, though I feel like they will get at least a couple, which would be an interesting foot in the door.
I started out thinking the Greens would get 0 seats, I do now think 1-2 is more likely.
You do realise that Rishi isn't that short don't you? And that a fair section of the population is by definition short? I'm not sure all these heightist jokes land quite as you want.
You're saying I shouldn't be punching down?
I don't really care about punching down. Just why the obsession with Rishi's height?
If the average height for a man is 5"10, then being 5"7 is no more unusual than being 6"1. He's not even that short anyway!
"ANAS Sarwar has rejected calls for him to back the SNP campaign against outgoing Scottish Tory leader Douglas Ross – despite Labour not standing a candidate in the constituency."
Thanks for the heads up. Shows you how desperate the SNP are getting. My campaign is cutting through - I’m out-spending them talking about jobs, investment, public services and the cost of living. They’re putting out quotes from MSPs saying you have to vote SNP to stop the Tories.
EDIT - posting this under a tree sheltering from a passing shower here in Fochabers!
Any word on which water companies the SNP are allowing to dump sewage into our rivers, lochs and seas? It would be really good to know before I cast my vote. Perhaps you could do a bar chart showing the respective companies and their sewage dumping.
Scottish Water have the lowest rate of outfall monitoring at just 4%, but by some measures are still the worst performing in the whole U.K.
And they are, of course, publicly owned...
A Scotch water expert as I live and breathe. I'd still trust my fishing pals who are out on the water week in, week out, who haven't once mentioned sewage but endlessly complain about salmon farming and agri run off, with a soupçon of overfishing in the Clyde estuary. Anyway on the arguable basis that Scottish Water (a corporation) is a company, this piece of classic LD election literature mentions companies(pl); which are the other ones?
Presumably some of the lairdly estates which own islands 100%, ownership carefully converted to companies, with their own water supplies. And similar in the form of islander buyouts, SNH etc.
Though whether any cause pollution and which they are is a further question.
On UNS Sir John Curtice is forecasting a result closer to what Michael Howard got in 2005 for Sunak than what Major got in 1997 and Hague got in 2001. On an MRP forecast though Curtice says the Tory result could be even worse than 1997
'Sir John Curtice projects 370 Labour seats, 191 Tory seats and 34 LD and 34 SNP seats, 2 Plaid, 1 Green and 0 Reform on universal national swing based on analysis of 8 recent polls.
However on an MRP change the results look significantly different, with Curtice saying Labour could then get 447 seats, the Tories 98, the LDs 53, the SNP 21, Reform 8 and the Greens and Plaid 2 each' https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cl7y2xj728do
So he doesnt know.
Here's my regular reminder that if one methodology gives one result and another gives another, the truth is not in splitting the difference, the truth is that one of them is wrong. We now have to decide whether polls+UNS is right, or MRP is right.
Or neither, because something non-uniform is happening, but not based on the assumptions in the MRP model.
Curtice, good as he is doesn't know, and he thought Labour was going to win in Rochdale ! But at 10 PM he will know.
Even more tantalising than that he will start to know during the day, and will probably have a good idea several hours earlier.
You do realise that Rishi isn't that short don't you? And that a fair section of the population is by definition short? I'm not sure all these heightist jokes land quite as you want.
You're saying I shouldn't be punching down?
I don't really care about punching down. Just why the obsession with Rishi's height?
If the average height for a man is 5"10, then being 5"7 is no more unusual than being 6"1. He's not even that short anyway!
He looks shorter than he is, because he is so slender and wears skinny trousers.
Current flap re: UK postal voting in the light of USA vote-by-mail:
> In USA prior to 2020 general election, lots of coverage in American media concerning problems with United States Postal Service (USPS) which is a quasi-government whatever-you-call-it. Problems both long-term AND exacerbated by Trump administration screw-ups (some accidental, others deliberate).
> In UK prior to 2024 general, sudden spike (if not frenzy) in media coverage of Royal Mail's Horizon scandal, along with other issues concerning deterioration (if PB's any indication) of basic postal service.
> In USA attacks by growing numbers of Republican politicos, pundits, activists on absentee and vote-by-mail as alleged conduits of electoral corruption (amplified by ramping & related disinformation) with effect of making many GOP voters reluctant to vote via the mail, and also making many Dems concerned whether Trump-inspired sabotage of USPS could disenfranchise them; in turn this led lost of Republicans to wait until Election Day to vote AND Democrats to either vote earlier via mail OR use ballot boxes and early in-person voting. My own guess is that Dems benefited more than Reps from this dynamic.
> In WA State where all elections are conducted via vote-by-mail, the Secretary of State and local county auditors have close & frequent contacts with USPS managers, in order to respond to problems that arise in mail ballots out to voters, and with voters mailing them back to election authorities. AND even better, to plan and prepare for massive numbers of individual postal ballots moving both directions through the system - ballots that need to be properly processed, indeed expedited, in order to enfranchise voters, guard against error AND tampering, and (lest we forget) move all that mail down the line so that BlancheLivermore & etc. can get it where it needs to go.
> In UK, there is relative absence (I think) of MAGA-GOP anti-postalism (though maybe NOT on PB) so that's not much of a factor. But appears to be growing angst about postal votes NOT getting counted because they're stuck on a truck somewhere on the M1.
On your second point, Horizon is a Post Office issue, FA to do with the Royal Mail.
But PO and RM were one and the same company for much of the Horizon era, and still are in the public mind.
On SS's final point, I don't think the M1 delays are an issue so much as the sorting offices in some urban areas.
You do realise that Rishi isn't that short don't you? And that a fair section of the population is by definition short? I'm not sure all these heightist jokes land quite as you want.
You're saying I shouldn't be punching down?
I don't really care about punching down. Just why the obsession with Rishi's height?
If the average height for a man is 5"10, then being 5"7 is no more unusual than being 6"1. He's not even that short anyway!
LAB 468 (41%) CON 69 (22%) LIB DEM 67 (10%) REFUK 6 (16%) GREEN 3 (6%) SNP 15
Labour Majority 286
Lib Dems to finish 2nd in seats without Labour has drifted out to 7.6 and I really like it on these poll showings. Seems like it really doesn’t need a huge amount to line up to come off, even if it looks slightly less likely than when the Tories were polling in the teens
Current flap re: UK postal voting in the light of USA vote-by-mail:
> In USA prior to 2020 general election, lots of coverage in American media concerning problems with United States Postal Service (USPS) which is a quasi-government whatever-you-call-it. Problems both long-term AND exacerbated by Trump administration screw-ups (some accidental, others deliberate).
> In UK prior to 2024 general, sudden spike (if not frenzy) in media coverage of Royal Mail's Horizon scandal, along with other issues concerning deterioration (if PB's any indication) of basic postal service.
> In USA attacks by growing numbers of Republican politicos, pundits, activists on absentee and vote-by-mail as alleged conduits of electoral corruption (amplified by ramping & related disinformation) with effect of making many GOP voters reluctant to vote via the mail, and also making many Dems concerned whether Trump-inspired sabotage of USPS could disenfranchise them; in turn this led lost of Republicans to wait until Election Day to vote AND Democrats to either vote earlier via mail OR use ballot boxes and early in-person voting. My own guess is that Dems benefited more than Reps from this dynamic.
> In WA State where all elections are conducted via vote-by-mail, the Secretary of State and local county auditors have close & frequent contacts with USPS managers, in order to respond to problems that arise in mail ballots out to voters, and with voters mailing them back to election authorities. AND even better, to plan and prepare for massive numbers of individual postal ballots moving both directions through the system - ballots that need to be properly processed, indeed expedited, in order to enfranchise voters, guard against error AND tampering, and (lest we forget) move all that mail down the line so that BlancheLivermore & etc. can get it where it needs to go.
> In UK, there is relative absence (I think) of MAGA-GOP anti-postalism (though maybe NOT on PB) so that's not much of a factor. But appears to be growing angst about postal votes NOT getting counted because they're stuck on a truck somewhere on the M1.
Good analysis but I would not wear the proud badge of PB Pedant if I didn't point out that the Post Office Ltd ceased to be a subsidiary of Royal Mail Plc in 2012 and, generally speaking, I think the public is aware they are separate now.
LAB 468 (41%) CON 69 (22%) LIB DEM 67 (10%) REFUK 6 (16%) GREEN 3 (6%) SNP 15
Labour Majority 286
If the Tories outpoll the LDs by 12% but only get 2 more seats I will, in the words of Paddy Ashdown, eat my hat.
Baxter is pretty broken, IMHO.
Not really, Lib Dem vote variation is really high. Remember the Lib Dems lose tonnes of deposits whereas the Conservatives will be getting lots of seats round 20%
Yes, but I am far from convinced that the effect is magnified to anything like the extent Baxter is modelling right now.
Current flap re: UK postal voting in the light of USA vote-by-mail:
> In USA prior to 2020 general election, lots of coverage in American media concerning problems with United States Postal Service (USPS) which is a quasi-government whatever-you-call-it. Problems both long-term AND exacerbated by Trump administration screw-ups (some accidental, others deliberate).
> In UK prior to 2024 general, sudden spike (if not frenzy) in media coverage of Royal Mail's Horizon scandal, along with other issues concerning deterioration (if PB's any indication) of basic postal service.
> In USA attacks by growing numbers of Republican politicos, pundits, activists on absentee and vote-by-mail as alleged conduits of electoral corruption (amplified by ramping & related disinformation) with effect of making many GOP voters reluctant to vote via the mail, and also making many Dems concerned whether Trump-inspired sabotage of USPS could disenfranchise them; in turn this led lost of Republicans to wait until Election Day to vote AND Democrats to either vote earlier via mail OR use ballot boxes and early in-person voting. My own guess is that Dems benefited more than Reps from this dynamic.
> In WA State where all elections are conducted via vote-by-mail, the Secretary of State and local county auditors have close & frequent contacts with USPS managers, in order to respond to problems that arise in mail ballots out to voters, and with voters mailing them back to election authorities. AND even better, to plan and prepare for massive numbers of individual postal ballots moving both directions through the system - ballots that need to be properly processed, indeed expedited, in order to enfranchise voters, guard against error AND tampering, and (lest we forget) move all that mail down the line so that BlancheLivermore & etc. can get it where it needs to go.
> In UK, there is relative absence (I think) of MAGA-GOP anti-postalism (though maybe NOT on PB) so that's not much of a factor. But appears to be growing angst about postal votes NOT getting counted because they're stuck on a truck somewhere on the M1.
On your second point, Horizon is a Post Office issue, FA to do with the Royal Mail.
From my distant vantage point, concede your point but do NOT appreciate difference PO v RM.
AND am guessing that many Brits are in the same boat? Here in USA, plenty who do NOT know - let alone care - that USPS is NOT a federal government department, like the old US Post Office.
My point (perhaps misguided) being that voter perception is different from administrative operation.
Redfield final call Labour leads the Conservatives by 19% in our final poll.
🇬🇧 Westminster Voting Intention (28 June - 2 July):
Labour 41% (-1) Conservative 22% (+3) Reform UK 16% (-2) Liberal Democrat 10% (-1) Green 6% (+1) SNP 3% (+1) Other 2% (–)
Changes +/- 26-27 Jun
redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…
Looks like a late Ref > Con switch is happening?
I feel like Reform will drop to the mid teens, Tories between 20-25, away from the worst predictions of sub 20 but not by much.
LDs seem rooted to 10-12, they have a low ceiling thesedays.
I think the LDs will outperform slightly, getting 12-13% on the night.
Years of disappointments with Lib Dem performances have taught me to trust the polls rather than my wishcasting hunches. Or rather, trust them if they're going down, ignore them if they're going up.
I suspect the LDs will outperform (slightly) in terms of votes, and underperform in seats. I think the Conservative vote share increase is very real, and they will end up on 25-27%, and will get 160 or so seats, while Reform drops back to vote share partity - or maybe slightly worse - with the LDs.)
I’m inclined to agree with that. With Labour slated to win, the LibDems will probably pick up a few drifting back on the assumption that Labour will win anyway, but in the target seats they’re relying on people who said they would vote LibDem two weeks back sticking with it despite a fortnight of Sunak v Starmer all over the national media.
You need a cracking ground campaign to counter that; I’ve helped the LibDems in some of these rural seats, and you can spend a whole day navigating around their country lanes working really hard, and by dinner time you’ve only contacted a handful of voters.
I’ll be rooting for lots of Tory losses, but expect the LDs will chalk up a fair few near misses, I just hope they avoid the Swinson mistake and stay focused on their key targets.
It makes the Tory seats >100 and >140 seat bets that I’ve been backing for some time, still good bets.
Mr Sunak is having a laugh. IF 30,000 people vote Labour or Lib Dem and not Tory there will not be any Tory seats, that is how daft these suggestions are.. All the recent polls are supported by local by election results. It is going to be a slaughter.
The Liberal victory of 1906 was variously described at the time as an “avalanche”, a “wave”, a “landslide”, and a “deluge” – although George Whiteley, the Liberal Chief Whip, drew on the description of St Paul’s shipwreck in Acts 27:14 to describe it as “a veritable Euroclydon”, which isn’t a phrase you hear much these days from MPs talking to their constituents.
You do realise that Rishi isn't that short don't you? And that a fair section of the population is by definition short? I'm not sure all these heightist jokes land quite as you want.
You're saying I shouldn't be punching down?
I don't really care about punching down. Just why the obsession with Rishi's height?
If the average height for a man is 5"10, then being 5"7 is no more unusual than being 6"1. He's not even that short anyway!
I think that one went over your head
Don't flatter yourself. I'm just not seeing the constant comic potential in Rishi's size.
Speaking of UK postal voting 2024, IF approx 15% of eventual actual voters go postal, and about 50% of requested have been returned, does that mean that 7.5% or thereabouts of the total votes, are already in the can?
Am guessing that UK official & thus unofficial reporting on this is pretty hit-or-miss? Even more so than in US, where system is even more decentralized BUT most states & election jurisdictions (esp larger ones) have an established process for reporting absentee, early voting and/or vote-by-mail returns.
There are quite strict rules about what can and cannot be reported at this stage. The process involves putting your ballot paper in an envelope (Envelope A) and then putting that Envelope A into a pre-paid postal envelope (Envelope B ). The Envelope B is opened and a pile of Envelope As sits in various Town Halls/Civic Centres untouched until counting starts on Thursday. I think you can report on the number of Envelope B's that have arrived but that's about it...
You do realise that Rishi isn't that short don't you? And that a fair section of the population is by definition short? I'm not sure all these heightist jokes land quite as you want.
You're saying I shouldn't be punching down?
I don't really care about punching down. Just why the obsession with Rishi's height?
If the average height for a man is 5"10, then being 5"7 is no more unusual than being 6"1. He's not even that short anyway!
I think that one went over your head
Don't flatter yourself. I'm just not seeing the constant comic potential in Rishi's size.
Alright, alright, it's just a joke. Don't blow it out of all proportion.
Redfield final call Labour leads the Conservatives by 19% in our final poll.
🇬🇧 Westminster Voting Intention (28 June - 2 July):
Labour 41% (-1) Conservative 22% (+3) Reform UK 16% (-2) Liberal Democrat 10% (-1) Green 6% (+1) SNP 3% (+1) Other 2% (–)
Changes +/- 26-27 Jun
redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…
Looks like a late Ref > Con switch is happening?
I feel like Reform will drop to the mid teens, Tories between 20-25, away from the worst predictions of sub 20 but not by much.
LDs seem rooted to 10-12, they have a low ceiling thesedays.
I think the LDs will outperform slightly, getting 12-13% on the night.
Years of disappointments with Lib Dem performances have taught me to trust the polls rather than my wishcasting hunches. Or rather, trust them if they're going down, ignore them if they're going up.
I suspect the LDs will outperform (slightly) in terms of votes, and underperform in seats. I think the Conservative vote share increase is very real, and they will end up on 25-27%, and will get 160 or so seats, while Reform drops back to vote share partity - or maybe slightly worse - with the LDs.)
I’m inclined to agree with that. With Labour slated to win, the LibDems will probably pick up a few drifting back on the assumption that Labour will win anyway, but in the target seats they’re relying on people who said they would vote LibDem two weeks back sticking with it despite a fortnight of Sunak v Starmer all over the national media.
You need a cracking ground campaign to counter that; I’ve helped the LibDems in some of these rural seats, and you can spend a whole day navigating around their country lanes working really hard, and by dinner time you’ve only contacted a handful of voters.
I’ll be rooting for lots of Tory losses, but expect the LDs will chalk up a fair few near misses, I just hope they avoid the Swinson mistake and stay focused on their key targets.
Predicting the LDs to fall short on seat expectations rarely goes wrong - it's just so hard for them to get over the line in most places. Their tipping point to pick up lots of seats is probably in the 20s, beyond that they have to rely on being really efficient in their targeting.
Current flap re: UK postal voting in the light of USA vote-by-mail:
> In USA prior to 2020 general election, lots of coverage in American media concerning problems with United States Postal Service (USPS) which is a quasi-government whatever-you-call-it. Problems both long-term AND exacerbated by Trump administration screw-ups (some accidental, others deliberate).
> In UK prior to 2024 general, sudden spike (if not frenzy) in media coverage of Royal Mail's Horizon scandal, along with other issues concerning deterioration (if PB's any indication) of basic postal service.
> In USA attacks by growing numbers of Republican politicos, pundits, activists on absentee and vote-by-mail as alleged conduits of electoral corruption (amplified by ramping & related disinformation) with effect of making many GOP voters reluctant to vote via the mail, and also making many Dems concerned whether Trump-inspired sabotage of USPS could disenfranchise them; in turn this led lost of Republicans to wait until Election Day to vote AND Democrats to either vote earlier via mail OR use ballot boxes and early in-person voting. My own guess is that Dems benefited more than Reps from this dynamic.
> In WA State where all elections are conducted via vote-by-mail, the Secretary of State and local county auditors have close & frequent contacts with USPS managers, in order to respond to problems that arise in mail ballots out to voters, and with voters mailing them back to election authorities. AND even better, to plan and prepare for massive numbers of individual postal ballots moving both directions through the system - ballots that need to be properly processed, indeed expedited, in order to enfranchise voters, guard against error AND tampering, and (lest we forget) move all that mail down the line so that BlancheLivermore & etc. can get it where it needs to go.
> In UK, there is relative absence (I think) of MAGA-GOP anti-postalism (though maybe NOT on PB) so that's not much of a factor. But appears to be growing angst about postal votes NOT getting counted because they're stuck on a truck somewhere on the M1.
I dislike postal voting because I think people should be forced to vote in private unless there is good reason not to.
Anabobazina said: » show previous quotes Indeed. By the way, I owe you an apology. Thanks for your explanation – I do remember @Paul_Bedfordshire and the cap fits. Sorry about the accusation you were @MrEd – a very odd poster who was a Trumpian shill and hated buses. I've enjoyed many of your posts today in particular.
Benpointer said: » show previous quotes [about letter from Tories dated 2044] That's totally ridiculous - no way will the Conservatives be still going in 2044; 2030 will be a stretch.
I don't know if Trump is going to be reelected in 2024. But I know that, if he is, he's going to preface every blatantly illegal thing he does by saying, "Official act, this is an official act. https://nitter.poast.org/OrinKerr/status/1807789782983913927#m
Current flap re: UK postal voting in the light of USA vote-by-mail:
> In USA prior to 2020 general election, lots of coverage in American media concerning problems with United States Postal Service (USPS) which is a quasi-government whatever-you-call-it. Problems both long-term AND exacerbated by Trump administration screw-ups (some accidental, others deliberate).
> In UK prior to 2024 general, sudden spike (if not frenzy) in media coverage of Royal Mail's Horizon scandal, along with other issues concerning deterioration (if PB's any indication) of basic postal service.
> In USA attacks by growing numbers of Republican politicos, pundits, activists on absentee and vote-by-mail as alleged conduits of electoral corruption (amplified by ramping & related disinformation) with effect of making many GOP voters reluctant to vote via the mail, and also making many Dems concerned whether Trump-inspired sabotage of USPS could disenfranchise them; in turn this led lost of Republicans to wait until Election Day to vote AND Democrats to either vote earlier via mail OR use ballot boxes and early in-person voting. My own guess is that Dems benefited more than Reps from this dynamic.
> In WA State where all elections are conducted via vote-by-mail, the Secretary of State and local county auditors have close & frequent contacts with USPS managers, in order to respond to problems that arise in mail ballots out to voters, and with voters mailing them back to election authorities. AND even better, to plan and prepare for massive numbers of individual postal ballots moving both directions through the system - ballots that need to be properly processed, indeed expedited, in order to enfranchise voters, guard against error AND tampering, and (lest we forget) move all that mail down the line so that BlancheLivermore & etc. can get it where it needs to go.
> In UK, there is relative absence (I think) of MAGA-GOP anti-postalism (though maybe NOT on PB) so that's not much of a factor. But appears to be growing angst about postal votes NOT getting counted because they're stuck on a truck somewhere on the M1.
On your second point, Horizon is a Post Office issue, FA to do with the Royal Mail.
But PO and RM were one and the same company for much of the Horizon era, and still are in the public mind.
On SS's final point, I don't think the M1 delays are an issue so much as the sorting offices in some urban areas.
In US major postal sorting centers can also be major bottlenecks for absentee and vote-by-mail ballots; this is exacerbated by fact that many 2nd-tier sorting centers on deliver mail every other day or suchlike. Including deliveries of outgoing & incoming ballots.
Here in WA State you can see this reflected in daily returned ballot statistics, where some counties - including some of the biggest - will have next to no returns one day, then thousands the next, then squat the day after that, then . . .
Pulpstar said: Good Lord, look at what's in the pipeline for VI come the 2030s !
16/17 yr old
Males:
REF: 35% LAB: 35% LDEM: 11% CON: 11% GRN: 2%
Females:
LAB: 43% GRN: 33% REF: 12% LDEM: 8% CON: 0%
Anecdotally this feels correct to me.
I recall the kids coming home from (Comprehensive) the day after Trump had been elected. Reported Girls and Teachers generally mortified about it. Meanwhile groups of boys gone all Nelly the Elephant (chanting "Trump, Trump, Trump")
MattW said: » show previous quotes it isn't suddenly anything ... the Jewish observance is public and known for years.
I think that a strong commitment to maintaining family life as a sane foundation to keep politics in context is great.
I expect most of our PMs have done the samr in some way.
I think the takeaway is the measure of Tory poor judgement and desperation. Just the latest pratfall.
The sabbath has started on Friday at Sundown for about the last five thousand years.
Yours a member of Reformed Judaism (ie Roman Catholicism).
(There were many Christians who also observed Jewish rituals and Traditions until Constantine (I think) went all Henry V111 and ordered them to drop it or else)
On UNS Sir John Curtice is forecasting a result closer to what Michael Howard got in 2005 for Sunak than what Major got in 1997 and Hague got in 2001. On an MRP forecast though Curtice says the Tory result could be even worse than 1997
'Sir John Curtice projects 370 Labour seats, 191 Tory seats and 34 LD and 34 SNP seats, 2 Plaid, 1 Green and 0 Reform on universal national swing based on analysis of 8 recent polls.
However on an MRP change the results look significantly different, with Curtice saying Labour could then get 447 seats, the Tories 98, the LDs 53, the SNP 21, Reform 8 and the Greens and Plaid 2 each' https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cl7y2xj728do
So he doesnt know.
Here's my regular reminder that if one methodology gives one result and another gives another, the truth is not in splitting the difference, the truth is that one of them is wrong. We now have to decide whether polls+UNS is right, or MRP is right.
Or neither, because something non-uniform is happening, but not based on the assumptions in the MRP model.
Curtice, good as he is doesn't know, and he thought Labour was going to win in Rochdale ! But at 10 PM he will know.
Even more tantalising than that he will start to know during the day, and will probably have a good idea several hours earlier.
Will he bet on it though
God what a sickener that would be if Sir John Curtice turns out to have millions offshore from insider betting off his exit poll info over the years.
It'd be like discovering your dad had another family in the next door town.
Speaking of UK postal voting 2024, IF approx 15% of eventual actual voters go postal, and about 50% of requested have been returned, does that mean that 7.5% or thereabouts of the total votes, are already in the can?
Am guessing that UK official & thus unofficial reporting on this is pretty hit-or-miss? Even more so than in US, where system is even more decentralized BUT most states & election jurisdictions (esp larger ones) have an established process for reporting absentee, early voting and/or vote-by-mail returns.
20% of the final vote tally will be postal and >10% of total votes are already in the can. But, despite the nonsense that usually circulates at this time in the campaign, no-one has seen them.
Presumably, this would be an "official act". After yesterday's decision, a re-elected Trump arranging the judicial murder of his opponents doesn't seem quite so farfetched as it ought to.
On UNS Sir John Curtice is forecasting a result closer to what Michael Howard got in 2005 for Sunak than what Major got in 1997 and Hague got in 2001. On an MRP forecast though Curtice says the Tory result could be even worse than 1997
'Sir John Curtice projects 370 Labour seats, 191 Tory seats and 34 LD and 34 SNP seats, 2 Plaid, 1 Green and 0 Reform on universal national swing based on analysis of 8 recent polls.
However on an MRP change the results look significantly different, with Curtice saying Labour could then get 447 seats, the Tories 98, the LDs 53, the SNP 21, Reform 8 and the Greens and Plaid 2 each' https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cl7y2xj728do
So he doesnt know.
Here's my regular reminder that if one methodology gives one result and another gives another, the truth is not in splitting the difference, the truth is that one of them is wrong. We now have to decide whether polls+UNS is right, or MRP is right.
Or neither, because something non-uniform is happening, but not based on the assumptions in the MRP model.
Curtice, good as he is doesn't know, and he thought Labour was going to win in Rochdale ! But at 10 PM he will know.
Even more tantalising than that he will start to know during the day, and will probably have a good idea several hours earlier.
Will he bet on it though
God what a sickener that would be if Sir John Curtice turns out to have millions offshore from insider betting off his exit poll info over the years.
It'd be like discovering your dad had another family in the next door town.
Looking at the state of him, he’d be well advised to go cash in some time very soon.
Pelosi on MSNBC re: Biden: "I think it's a legitimate question to say: Is this an episode or is this a condition?"
She says it's "legitimate" to ask of Biden & Trump. "Both candidates owe whatever test you want to put them to, in terms of their mental acuity and their health." https://x.com/sahilkapur/status/1808178608244248851
Pulpstar said: Good Lord, look at what's in the pipeline for VI come the 2030s !
16/17 yr old
Males:
REF: 35% LAB: 35% LDEM: 11% CON: 11% GRN: 2%
Females:
LAB: 43% GRN: 33% REF: 12% LDEM: 8% CON: 0%
Anecdotally this feels correct to me.
I recall the kids coming home from (Comprehensive) the day after Trump had been elected. Reported Girls and Teachers generally mortified about it. Meanwhile groups of boys gone all Nelly the Elephant (chanting "Trump, Trump, Trump")
Quite funny that if you average the two, we get Labour where the polls place it today, RefUK where they place the Tories, the LDs where they're placed today, and the Tories nowhere.
Current flap re: UK postal voting in the light of USA vote-by-mail:
> In USA prior to 2020 general election, lots of coverage in American media concerning problems with United States Postal Service (USPS) which is a quasi-government whatever-you-call-it. Problems both long-term AND exacerbated by Trump administration screw-ups (some accidental, others deliberate).
> In UK prior to 2024 general, sudden spike (if not frenzy) in media coverage of Royal Mail's Horizon scandal, along with other issues concerning deterioration (if PB's any indication) of basic postal service.
> In USA attacks by growing numbers of Republican politicos, pundits, activists on absentee and vote-by-mail as alleged conduits of electoral corruption (amplified by ramping & related disinformation) with effect of making many GOP voters reluctant to vote via the mail, and also making many Dems concerned whether Trump-inspired sabotage of USPS could disenfranchise them; in turn this led lost of Republicans to wait until Election Day to vote AND Democrats to either vote earlier via mail OR use ballot boxes and early in-person voting. My own guess is that Dems benefited more than Reps from this dynamic.
> In WA State where all elections are conducted via vote-by-mail, the Secretary of State and local county auditors have close & frequent contacts with USPS managers, in order to respond to problems that arise in mail ballots out to voters, and with voters mailing them back to election authorities. AND even better, to plan and prepare for massive numbers of individual postal ballots moving both directions through the system - ballots that need to be properly processed, indeed expedited, in order to enfranchise voters, guard against error AND tampering, and (lest we forget) move all that mail down the line so that BlancheLivermore & etc. can get it where it needs to go.
> In UK, there is relative absence (I think) of MAGA-GOP anti-postalism (though maybe NOT on PB) so that's not much of a factor. But appears to be growing angst about postal votes NOT getting counted because they're stuck on a truck somewhere on the M1.
On your second point, Horizon is a Post Office issue, FA to do with the Royal Mail.
But PO and RM were one and the same company for much of the Horizon era, and still are in the public mind.
On SS's final point, I don't think the M1 delays are an issue so much as the sorting offices in some urban areas.
In US major postal sorting centers can also be major bottlenecks for absentee and vote-by-mail ballots; this is exacerbated by fact that many 2nd-tier sorting centers on deliver mail every other day or suchlike. Including deliveries of outgoing & incoming ballots.
Here in WA State you can see this reflected in daily returned ballot statistics, where some counties - including some of the biggest - will have next to no returns one day, then thousands the next, then squat the day after that, then . . .
Yes, but in the UK, standard envelopes are all machine sorted and the office is configured to be clear of first class mail after every evening despatch. If there’s a problem in RM it’s with staffing shortages in delivery offices - but this affects delivery of PVs to punters and not their return to the council.
LAB 468 (41%) CON 69 (22%) LIB DEM 67 (10%) REFUK 6 (16%) GREEN 3 (6%) SNP 15
Labour Majority 286
Lib Dems to finish 2nd in seats without Labour has drifted out to 7.6 and I really like it on these poll showings. Seems like it really doesn’t need a huge amount to line up to come off, even if it looks slightly less likely than when the Tories were polling in the teens
The importance of the Opposition in the system of parliamentary government has long received practical recognition in the procedure of Parliament. In 1937 statutory recognition was accorded through the grant of a salary to the Leader of the Opposition. The prevalence (on the whole) of the two-party system has usually obviated any uncertainty as to which party has the right to be called the ‘Official Opposition’: it is the largest minority party which is prepared, in the event of the resignation of the government, to assume office [and in a footnote: The Speaker’s decision on the identity of the Leader of the Opposition is final (Ministerial and other Salaries Act 1975 (c27) s2 (2)).
- Erskine May, Parliamentary Practice, 23rd edition, pp247-48
If we ended up with the above results the Greens and LDs should state to the Speaker that they're prepared to form a coalition minority administration should the Government resign. That would give him a headache.
The SDP have a policy that all staff and pupils at schools must run, jog, or walk one mile per day 'except where extenuating circumstances permit'. Maybe we should have a similar thing for voting, beat the obesity epidemic for those physically able.
BBC use him as a numbers man. But seems to me he is just as good as a political commentator - ie analysing why the numbers move as they do.
Made a very telling remark about the next Govt having to conduct a spending review by October which will flush out where the cuts are going to have to be made. Implication was why aren't journalists challenging politicians on this. Can't be kicked into long grass - decisions will have to be made imminently.
LAB 468 (41%) CON 69 (22%) LIB DEM 67 (10%) REFUK 6 (16%) GREEN 3 (6%) SNP 15
Labour Majority 286
Lib Dems to finish 2nd in seats without Labour has drifted out to 7.6 and I really like it on these poll showings. Seems like it really doesn’t need a huge amount to line up to come off, even if it looks slightly less likely than when the Tories were polling in the teens
The importance of the Opposition in the system of parliamentary government has long received practical recognition in the procedure of Parliament. In 1937 statutory recognition was accorded through the grant of a salary to the Leader of the Opposition. The prevalence (on the whole) of the two-party system has usually obviated any uncertainty as to which party has the right to be called the ‘Official Opposition’: it is the largest minority party which is prepared, in the event of the resignation of the government, to assume office [and in a footnote: The Speaker’s decision on the identity of the Leader of the Opposition is final (Ministerial and other Salaries Act 1975 (c27) s2 (2)).
- Erskine May, Parliamentary Practice, 23rd edition, pp247-48
If we ended up with the above results the Greens and LDs should state to the Speaker that they're prepared to form a coalition minority administration should the Government resign. That would give him a headache.
Do the Greens and LDs have much in common at the moment? Both are imo certainly closer to Labour than they are each other.
The London Grammar and PJ were the best at Glasto. Available with rest on BBC I Player.
PJ Harvey.
I like Peej. But whenever I watch her I can't help lament that she is not what she was. Not 'worse' - but oh how I loved her original incarnation. She now does thoughtful and interesting where once she did raw and primal.
You do realise that Rishi isn't that short don't you? And that a fair section of the population is by definition short? I'm not sure all these heightist jokes land quite as you want.
You're saying I shouldn't be punching down?
I don't really care about punching down. Just why the obsession with Rishi's height?
If the average height for a man is 5"10, then being 5"7 is no more unusual than being 6"1. He's not even that short anyway!
He looks shorter than he is, because he is so slender and wears skinny trousers.
Yes it's not the height that's unusual it's the all round tininess.
Presumably, this would be an "official act". After yesterday's decision, a re-elected Trump arranging the judicial murder of his opponents doesn't seem quite so farfetched as it ought to.
Little bit of a Tory uptick, but nothing to set the world on fire.
Unless the Reform vote implodes in the privacy of the polling booth, the Conservatives will be well short of 30% of the popular vote. Easily their worst ever result at a GE.
Probably a swingback in seats where the Reform minded tories know Reform don't have a hope.
Speaking of UK postal voting 2024, IF approx 15% of eventual actual voters go postal, and about 50% of requested have been returned, does that mean that 7.5% or thereabouts of the total votes, are already in the can?
Am guessing that UK official & thus unofficial reporting on this is pretty hit-or-miss? Even more so than in US, where system is even more decentralized BUT most states & election jurisdictions (esp larger ones) have an established process for reporting absentee, early voting and/or vote-by-mail returns.
There are quite strict rules about what can and cannot be reported at this stage. The process involves putting your ballot paper in an envelope (Envelope A) and then putting that Envelope A into a pre-paid postal envelope (Envelope B ). The Envelope B is opened and a pile of Envelope As sits in various Town Halls/Civic Centres untouched until counting starts on Thursday. I think you can report on the number of Envelope B's that have arrived but that's about it...
Close, but not right. The A envelopes have to be opened to check the serial number of the returned ballot matches that sent to the voter. But the ballot paper should be kept face down at all times. Once verified they then get put into a ballot box, sealed, and ready to be mixed in with the polling station ballots at the main count.
@survation As @chrishanretty has now closed his MRP laptop, we're finalising materials and will have our MRP update out at around 6.30pm, based on 34,558 interviews, fieldwork ending July 1st.
If you are signed up to receive our press releases we'll be emailing you the full data and commentary from Chris, and the Survation team. The sign up form is here if not: eepurl.com/mOK8P
Also follow @VasilSurvation and @JackSurvation for insights later on. Complaints about seats forecasts you don't like can be sent directly to @DamianSurvation as he is a scarred veteran of election prediction.
Speaking of UK postal voting 2024, IF approx 15% of eventual actual voters go postal, and about 50% of requested have been returned, does that mean that 7.5% or thereabouts of the total votes, are already in the can?
Am guessing that UK official & thus unofficial reporting on this is pretty hit-or-miss? Even more so than in US, where system is even more decentralized BUT most states & election jurisdictions (esp larger ones) have an established process for reporting absentee, early voting and/or vote-by-mail returns.
There are quite strict rules about what can and cannot be reported at this stage. The process involves putting your ballot paper in an envelope (Envelope A) and then putting that Envelope A into a pre-paid postal envelope (Envelope B ). The Envelope B is opened and a pile of Envelope As sits in various Town Halls/Civic Centres untouched until counting starts on Thursday. I think you can report on the number of Envelope B's that have arrived but that's about it...
The number of envelopes, AND the voter ID numbers on those envelopes, is exactly the kind of ballot returns reporting I'm taking about.
In King Co WA, after ballots are verified for counting, they are then separated from return envelope, and given visual examination by workers to see if there are any weird makings or other issues that would interfere with their tabulation. At that time observers can see what's on ballots being stacked in totally random piles (NOT by voting decisions). BUT there are thousands of ballots with votes for many different offices from many different voting precincts, so getting more than a vague impression of voting patterns is impossible
"So it’s hardly surprising that Nigel Farage isn’t keen on Marine Le Pen and the RN. Rather than ‘far right’, he is really a malcontent of boomer liberalism, railing against the social outcomes of the post-1980s consensus while wishing to maintain the economic conditions that create them. He is ideologically hostile to the populist, nationalist and common good economics practised and advocated elsewhere in Europe by leaders and thinkers whom his followers and opponents would consider his natural allies. His natural ally is fellow boomer-whisperer Donald Trump.
When the liberal left casts Farage as a 20-a-day Oswald Mosley, it commits a cardinal sin of politics: misunderstanding the enemy. Farage flirts now and then with incendiary rhetoric but if he is the apogee of national populism in Britain, we will be very lucky indeed. I suspect, however, that he won’t be. A few years back, New York Times columnist Ross Douthat observed: ‘If you dislike the religious right, wait till you meet the post-religious right.’ I’d suggest to progressives that the same applies to Reform’s leader: if you dislike Farage, will till you see who comes after him."
You do realise that Rishi isn't that short don't you? And that a fair section of the population is by definition short? I'm not sure all these heightist jokes land quite as you want.
You're saying I shouldn't be punching down?
I don't really care about punching down. Just why the obsession with Rishi's height?
If the average height for a man is 5"10, then being 5"7 is no more unusual than being 6"1. He's not even that short anyway!
He looks shorter than he is, because he is so slender and wears skinny trousers.
Yes it's not the height that's unusual it's the all round tininess.
Though the height too - 5'7''? Really? I think there's some stretching of the truth going on there.
I have, I should point out, nothing against the tragically undersized. But he is remarkably small.
@Carnyx flagged that the SNP (Flynn) had written to Labour demanding that they cede votes to the SNP "to beat the Tories".
I've now seen targeted letters sent by the SNP (again, Flynn) to LD supporters to switch to the SNP "to beat the Tories".
And Ross is putting out campaign stuff addressed to named voters imploring people to "make my vote count" by voting Ross "to stop the SNP". Kind of him to write to me personally (its my name on the leaflet).
There is an air of desperation. The Tories have been desperate since day 1 as they can see what is coming. But now the SNP punting for business? Clearly plenty of people have told them to go forth and multiply on the doors as I witnessed at the start of the campaign a street away from Alex Salmond's house.
I know that @Farooq mentioned polls. What polls? The closest we have had is MRP extrapolation, and we can all cite examples of how daft some of those have been.
And it isn't just in ANME. The response we're getting across the shire is good. Don't take my word for it, look at the increasingly desperate tactics being deployed by the supposed big 2...
The SDP have a policy that all staff and pupils at schools must run, jog, or walk one mile per day 'except where extenuating circumstances permit'. Maybe we should have a similar thing for voting, beat the obesity epidemic for those physically able.
That's a classic old school third party policy, that.
Actually, it's a good idea. My local primary school has such a scheme, though it appears to have fallen away a bit in recent years. I fully support it. But it doesn't really strike me as something a national government need get involved in.
Presumably, this would be an "official act". After yesterday's decision, a re-elected Trump arranging the judicial murder of his opponents doesn't seem quite so farfetched as it ought to.
There's a risk that fear of Trump2 makes it more likely. People are scared of his vindictiveness therefore loath to stand in his way. It's a gangster dynamic.
BBC use him as a numbers man. But seems to me he is just as good as a political commentator - ie analysing why the numbers move as they do.
Made a very telling remark about the next Govt having to conduct a spending review by October which will flush out where the cuts are going to have to be made. Implication was why aren't journalists challenging politicians on this. Can't be kicked into long grass - decisions will have to be made imminently.
Yes, Sir John was very bullish when speaking to Lady Harman. Have a feeling this may be his final election calculating the numbers and he'll be retiring to become a general political commentator soon?
BBC use him as a numbers man. But seems to me he is just as good as a political commentator - ie analysing why the numbers move as they do.
Made a very telling remark about the next Govt having to conduct a spending review by October which will flush out where the cuts are going to have to be made. Implication was why aren't journalists challenging politicians on this. Can't be kicked into long grass - decisions will have to be made imminently.
Did Curtice screw up the numbers on the 2015 exit poll. Can someone clarify this. Thanks.
The SDP have a policy that all staff and pupils at schools must run, jog, or walk one mile per day 'except where extenuating circumstances permit'. Maybe we should have a similar thing for voting, beat the obesity epidemic for those physically able.
I'm actually feeling moderately well-disposed towards the SDP in the run up to Thursday. I don't necessarily agree with them, but of all the parties they are the one who has treated me most like an adult in their communications with me and offered reasons to vote for them rather than against their opponents. And their candidate has actually been seen locally in the flesh.
EDIT by which I mean 'in person' of course, rather than 'naked'.
On UNS Sir John Curtice is forecasting a result closer to what Michael Howard got in 2005 for Sunak than what Major got in 1997 and Hague got in 2001. On an MRP forecast though Curtice says the Tory result could be even worse than 1997
'Sir John Curtice projects 370 Labour seats, 191 Tory seats and 34 LD and 34 SNP seats, 2 Plaid, 1 Green and 0 Reform on universal national swing based on analysis of 8 recent polls.
However on an MRP change the results look significantly different, with Curtice saying Labour could then get 447 seats, the Tories 98, the LDs 53, the SNP 21, Reform 8 and the Greens and Plaid 2 each' https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cl7y2xj728do
So he doesnt know.
Here's my regular reminder that if one methodology gives one result and another gives another, the truth is not in splitting the difference, the truth is that one of them is wrong. We now have to decide whether polls+UNS is right, or MRP is right.
Or neither, because something non-uniform is happening, but not based on the assumptions in the MRP model.
Curtice, good as he is doesn't know, and he thought Labour was going to win in Rochdale ! But at 10 PM he will know.
Even more tantalising than that he will start to know during the day, and will probably have a good idea several hours earlier.
Will he bet on it though
God what a sickener that would be if Sir John Curtice turns out to have millions offshore from insider betting off his exit poll info over the years.
It'd be like discovering your dad had another family in the next door town.
Looking at the state of him, he’d be well advised to go cash in some time very soon.
Something about him I do like. I do find him trustworthy.
Comments
Baxter is pretty broken, IMHO.
> In USA prior to 2020 general election, lots of coverage in American media concerning problems with United States Postal Service (USPS) which is a quasi-government whatever-you-call-it. Problems both long-term AND exacerbated by Trump administration screw-ups (some accidental, others deliberate).
> In UK prior to 2024 general, sudden spike (if not frenzy) in media coverage of Royal Mail's Horizon scandal, along with other issues concerning deterioration (if PB's any indication) of basic postal service.
> In USA attacks by growing numbers of Republican politicos, pundits, activists on absentee and vote-by-mail as alleged conduits of electoral corruption (amplified by ramping & related disinformation) with effect of making many GOP voters reluctant to vote via the mail, and also making many Dems concerned whether Trump-inspired sabotage of USPS could disenfranchise them; in turn this led lost of Republicans to wait until Election Day to vote AND Democrats to either vote earlier via mail OR use ballot boxes and early in-person voting. My own guess is that Dems benefited more than Reps from this dynamic.
> In WA State where all elections are conducted via vote-by-mail, the Secretary of State and local county auditors have close & frequent contacts with USPS managers, in order to respond to problems that arise in mail ballots out to voters, and with voters mailing them back to election authorities. AND even better, to plan and prepare for massive numbers of individual postal ballots moving both directions through the system - ballots that need to be properly processed, indeed expedited, in order to enfranchise voters, guard against error AND tampering, and (lest we forget) move all that mail down the line so that BlancheLivermore & etc. can get it where it needs to go.
> In UK, there is relative absence (I think) of MAGA-GOP anti-postalism (though maybe NOT on PB) so that's not much of a factor. But appears to be growing angst about postal votes NOT getting counted because they're stuck on a truck somewhere on the M1.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crgrwdex9zzo
"A Workers Party of Britain candidate said he was "fearful for his life" after his son was attacked while canvassing for him.
Wajad Burkey, the party’s general election candidate for Sutton Coldfield, said his son had a head injury after being "beaten up" and was being treated in hospital. He has suspended his campaign.
West Midlands Police said a man was attacked by a group with a baseball bat on Beaconsfield Road in Sutton Coldfield on Sunday."
Their vote cratering in non-target seats may well make it easier for them to come 2nd in total seats.
So counter-intuitively a reason to back them for 2nd W/O Labour
The next week or so will be crucial: will enough pressure be placed on Biden that he decides to withdraw, or will he remain the nominee dragging his party down?
(FWIW, I don't think it is impossible for Biden to win. I think the Supreme Court has done a massive favour to the Democrats, first with Roe v Wade, next with Presidential immunity. The two of these are likely to be big drivers of turnout for the Democrats. That said, I'm sure the Dems would do better with Whitmer, Ossoff or Buttigieg as candidate.)
https://www.politicshome.com/thehouse/article/electoral-disaster-metaphor-guide
Conservatives currently seem to aiming to do about as well as the Light Brigade.
I'm not saying those are the right numbers, just illustrating how a powerful seat effect could come from a negligible VI change if it's extremely efficient.
Am guessing that UK official & thus unofficial reporting on this is pretty hit-or-miss? Even more so than in US, where system is even more decentralized BUT most states & election jurisdictions (esp larger ones) have an established process for reporting absentee, early voting and/or vote-by-mail returns.
I started out thinking the Greens would get 0 seats, I do now think 1-2 is more likely.
Can see implied VI being a 10 to 12 point lead if so a super majority is off the cards.
I think final Lab % will be 36% as predicted at the start of the campaign.
Only 2 more sleeps till we find out.
If the average height for a man is 5"10, then being 5"7 is no more unusual than being 6"1. He's not even that short anyway!
Though whether any cause pollution and which they are is a further question.
On SS's final point, I don't think the M1 delays are an issue so much as the sorting offices in some urban areas.
AND am guessing that many Brits are in the same boat? Here in USA, plenty who do NOT know - let alone care - that USPS is NOT a federal government department, like the old US Post Office.
My point (perhaps misguided) being that voter perception is different from administrative operation.
Sorry, a different pathetic old man.
You need a cracking ground campaign to counter that; I’ve helped the LibDems in some of these rural seats, and you can spend a whole day navigating around their country lanes working really hard, and by dinner time you’ve only contacted a handful of voters.
I’ll be rooting for lots of Tory losses, but expect the LDs will chalk up a fair few near misses, I just hope they avoid the Swinson mistake and stay focused on their key targets.
It makes the Tory seats >100 and >140 seat bets that I’ve been backing for some time, still good bets.
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Indeed. By the way, I owe you an apology. Thanks for your explanation – I do remember @Paul_Bedfordshire and the cap fits. Sorry about the accusation you were @MrEd – a very odd poster who was a Trumpian shill and hated buses. I've enjoyed many of your posts today in particular.
Apologies.
Apology Graciously Accepted :-)
The Tories have come third in the Senedd elections a few times before. Not unprecedented.
» show previous quotes [about letter from Tories dated 2044]
That's totally ridiculous - no way will the Conservatives be still going in 2044; 2030 will be a stretch.
Was it signed "Nigel Farage - Leader"?
I don't know if Trump is going to be reelected in 2024. But I know that, if he is, he's going to preface every blatantly illegal thing he does by saying, "Official act, this is an official act.
https://nitter.poast.org/OrinKerr/status/1807789782983913927#m
Here in WA State you can see this reflected in daily returned ballot statistics, where some counties - including some of the biggest - will have next to no returns one day, then thousands the next, then squat the day after that, then . . .
Good Lord, look at what's in the pipeline for VI come the 2030s !
16/17 yr old
Males:
REF: 35%
LAB: 35%
LDEM: 11%
CON: 11%
GRN: 2%
Females:
LAB: 43%
GRN: 33%
REF: 12%
LDEM: 8%
CON: 0%
Anecdotally this feels correct to me.
I recall the kids coming home from (Comprehensive) the day after Trump had been elected. Reported Girls and Teachers generally mortified about it. Meanwhile groups of boys gone all Nelly the Elephant (chanting "Trump, Trump, Trump")
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it isn't suddenly anything ... the Jewish observance is public and known for years.
I think that a strong commitment to maintaining family life as a sane foundation to keep politics in context is great.
I expect most of our PMs have done the samr in some way.
I think the takeaway is the measure of Tory poor judgement and desperation. Just the latest pratfall.
The sabbath has started on Friday at Sundown for about the last five thousand years.
Yours a member of Reformed Judaism (ie Roman Catholicism).
(There were many Christians who also observed Jewish rituals and Traditions until Constantine (I think) went all Henry V111 and ordered them to drop it or else)
It'd be like discovering your dad had another family in the next door town.
Perhaps unprecedented.
After yesterday's decision, a re-elected Trump arranging the judicial murder of his opponents doesn't seem quite so farfetched as it ought to.
Donald Trump reposted an image calling Liz Cheney “guilty of treason” and for her to be prosecuted in “televised military tribunals.”
https://x.com/MeidasTouch/status/1807564601711870448
She says it's "legitimate" to ask of Biden & Trump. "Both candidates owe whatever test you want to put them to, in terms of their mental acuity and their health."
https://x.com/sahilkapur/status/1808178608244248851
- Erskine May, Parliamentary Practice, 23rd edition, pp247-48
If we ended up with the above results the Greens and LDs should state to the Speaker that they're prepared to form a coalition minority administration should the Government resign. That would give him a headache.
BBC use him as a numbers man. But seems to me he is just as good as a political commentator - ie analysing why the numbers move as they do.
Made a very telling remark about the next Govt having to conduct a spending review by October which will flush out where the cuts are going to have to be made. Implication was why aren't journalists challenging politicians on this. Can't be kicked into long grass - decisions will have to be made imminently.
See this, for example.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VFYsVoQH32U
And this for - well, just, see this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dg39hJIhzAk
As @chrishanretty has now closed his MRP laptop, we're finalising materials and will have our MRP update out at around 6.30pm, based on 34,558 interviews, fieldwork ending July 1st.
If you are signed up to receive our press releases we'll be emailing you the full data and commentary from Chris, and the Survation team. The sign up form is here if not: eepurl.com/mOK8P
Also follow @VasilSurvation and @JackSurvation
for insights later on. Complaints about seats forecasts you don't like can be sent directly to @DamianSurvation as he is a scarred veteran of election prediction.
In King Co WA, after ballots are verified for counting, they are then separated from return envelope, and given visual examination by workers to see if there are any weird makings or other issues that would interfere with their tabulation. At that time observers can see what's on ballots being stacked in totally random piles (NOT by voting decisions). BUT there are thousands of ballots with votes for many different offices from many different voting precincts, so getting more than a vague impression of voting patterns is impossible
Implication is that none of it - not even D-Day - will make any difference at all when people actually cast their votes.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/nigel-farage-is-not-the-future/
TLDR: Farage <> Le Pen, Reform <> RN
"So it’s hardly surprising that Nigel Farage isn’t keen on Marine Le Pen and the RN. Rather than ‘far right’, he is really a malcontent of boomer liberalism, railing against the social outcomes of the post-1980s consensus while wishing to maintain the economic conditions that create them. He is ideologically hostile to the populist, nationalist and common good economics practised and advocated elsewhere in Europe by leaders and thinkers whom his followers and opponents would consider his natural allies. His natural ally is fellow boomer-whisperer Donald Trump.
When the liberal left casts Farage as a 20-a-day Oswald Mosley, it commits a cardinal sin of politics: misunderstanding the enemy. Farage flirts now and then with incendiary rhetoric but if he is the apogee of national populism in Britain, we will be very lucky indeed. I suspect, however, that he won’t be. A few years back, New York Times columnist Ross Douthat observed: ‘If you dislike the religious right, wait till you meet the post-religious right.’ I’d suggest to progressives that the same applies to Reform’s leader: if you dislike Farage, will till you see who comes after him."
I have, I should point out, nothing against the tragically undersized. But he is remarkably small.
@Carnyx flagged that the SNP (Flynn) had written to Labour demanding that they cede votes to the SNP "to beat the Tories".
I've now seen targeted letters sent by the SNP (again, Flynn) to LD supporters to switch to the SNP "to beat the Tories".
And Ross is putting out campaign stuff addressed to named voters imploring people to "make my vote count" by voting Ross "to stop the SNP". Kind of him to write to me personally (its my name on the leaflet).
There is an air of desperation. The Tories have been desperate since day 1 as they can see what is coming. But now the SNP punting for business? Clearly plenty of people have told them to go forth and multiply on the doors as I witnessed at the start of the campaign a street away from Alex Salmond's house.
I know that @Farooq mentioned polls. What polls? The closest we have had is MRP extrapolation, and we can all cite examples of how daft some of those have been.
And it isn't just in ANME. The response we're getting across the shire is good. Don't take my word for it, look at the increasingly desperate tactics being deployed by the supposed big 2...
Actually, it's a good idea. My local primary school has such a scheme, though it appears to have fallen away a bit in recent years. I fully support it. But it doesn't really strike me as something a national government need get involved in.
EDIT by which I mean 'in person' of course, rather than 'naked'.