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Chronicle of a bet foretold: Thin gruel – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,327

    So faithfully followed Friday family fun can be cancelled for crucial campaign curries?

    Making fun of people's traditions is a bit off, no?

    What next, combing through Rishi's campaign diary to see how well he's been sticking to his Sunday-Tuesday fasting?
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,497

    Eabhal said:

    Heathener said:

    Technically there is no such thing as a Supermajority in the UK.

    A landslide I would say is c. 120+ majority. Some would set the bar a bit lower.

    I suspect that this Tory / Daily Mail Supermajority message is cutting through and I’m not too unhappy about it. If it helps defeat @Leon ’s warped worldview then it’s a double win as far as I’m concerned.

    There seems to be mixed signals. On one hand "its cutting through" - as I have to presume witnessed by this absurd 48 Hours thing. On the other hand the net of seats to LB attack / Tory defend gets stretched further and further.

    It won't people an avalanche of people voting Labour. But they're voting against the Tories. Only a few days to find out if there is a late Tory swingback or not. But lets assume there is, and the "please please no" campaign has "worked" and Labour "only" win a 150 majority

    Bit abject isn't it for the Tories? "We successfully avoided getting crushed! We only got beat by a massive landslide! WooHoo!!!!"
    I would suggest you may be missing the point that many conservatives look on in disgust at Reform and their stated aim to take over the party and are determined to fight for the one nation conservative cause, but also to have at least a viable opposition and yes including an increased lib dem seat count

    I have no idea of Fridays seat totals but disenchantment with all governing parties is at an extreme high, not just here but elsewhere and you only need to witness what is happening in France to be concerned if the centre right is marginalised into irrelevance
    No I get it - we don't want Farage.

    That is a given, the motivation to salvage as many seats as possible. And *that* is my point. The best case scenario - one the party is now spending its remaining cash pleading for - is to only give Labour a landslide.

    How the mighty have fallen. It took Labour over a decade to recover from a badly misguided comedy note channeling Reginald Maudling. How long will it take the Tories to recover from "please don't destroy us, isn't a landslide enough for you?"
    I kinda understand BigG's position. But a clearer signal to the Tories to return to the centre would be to vote for the centre. That's the Lib Dems, probably.
    Or Labour.

    I'm voting Labour for only the second time ever. Literally because they're promising planning reform and principles over party.

    If Tories want centre right voters back, they need to appeal to them.

    Simply being a high tax, high spend, nasty about people who want spending, nasty about foreigners but not nasty enough to stop migration party is appealing to about nobody.
    Fair enough. Good for you. And well argued. One of the most bizarre developments was @Big_G_NorthWales voting Tory despite wanting the Tories out. That one I still haven’t get my head around.
    My original plan to vote Labour has been abandoned because the Labour party have chosen a drop in from London to run in my constituency (leafy, rural, SW Wiltshire). Its frankly rather insulting. So its almost certainly going to be the nice Lib Dem candidate (a consultant at the local hospital). As an aside, as I crossed Morrison's carpark on Saturday a mid thirties lady was conversing with a friend "I just can't vote for Keir Starmer", she said. From the look of her, I suspect Starmer is not left wing enough, but that may be overthinking it...
    He’s neither Left enough or Remain enough for me, but given the way my constituency seems to be going, according to Electoral Calculus, Labour it’s going to be.
    Despite the Labour candidate not being the most inspiring candidate.
    Come Friday, there's going to be endless dreary Labour MPs. And some REALLY dreary LibDems.

    To be fair, they will often be replacing dreary Tory MPs.

    But we'll get to see a new lot engage mouth before brain.
    'Twas ever thus, and ever will be!
    How are you feeling today?
    Thanks for asking. "Trampled by a herd of elephants" about covers it!

    But nothing can dent my cheery disposition.

    (Well, 'til Friday!)
    Very uncomfortable. Best wishes.

    Irrespective of (significant) political differences you are one of the Pb-ers whose posts I look for.
    Specially for MM: a (disappointingly short and with only one, but very impressive, pic) positive piece on moths and moth-ers in the Graun today.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jul/02/moths-habitat-conservation-hampton-court-palace
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 21,687

    biggles said:

    Jimmy Anderson is bowling for Lancashire today. His figures are now:

    5-13 off 7.4 overs.

    He's nearly 42.

    I tell you what, our second line bowlers must be amazing if he’s been asked to step aside.

    *Checks Robinson’s figures*

    Hmmm
    Next Ashes is in Australia where the pitches and ball do not suite a medium pace swing bowler (albeit probably the greatest swing bowler of all time).
    If only England cricket selection wasn't based on reducing our chances of losing the Ashes in 18 months time from 92% to 90% at the expense of several wins in between.
  • Options
    novanova Posts: 669

    R&W haven't had much more than 1% up/down movement for the last month, so for them 2% would be "decent",

    They've also had Labour leads of 23+, and Labour votes of 42+, with the Tories not breaking 20, so even a big switch from one party to another, probably wouldn't make much of a dent on the overall outcome.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 116,563
    edited July 2
    A fie on people who receive embargoed polls then drop hints before release.

    Discretion is my middle name.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,702
    edited July 2
    carnforth said:

    Has this been discussed? It seems a moderately interesting proposal, though I fear rooting out political lying will never catch on. Quite amusing that it's taking place in the maelstrom of political falsehood that is a GE though.

    https://x.com/OborneTweets/status/1808102040947601472

    Peter Oborne is writing for Waitrose Infowars now? Another man broken by Brexit?
    Peter Oborne wrote two books on the subject:-

    The Rise of Political Lying
    ...during the Major and [especially] Blair governments

    https://www.simonandschuster.co.uk/books/The-Rise-of-Political-Lying/Peter-Oborne/9780743275606

    The Assault on Truth
    Boris Johnson, Donald Trump and the Emergence of a New Moral Barbarism

    https://www.simonandschuster.co.uk/books/The-Assault-on-Truth/Peter-Oborne/9781398523388
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,534
    Carnyx said:

    Eabhal said:

    Heathener said:

    Technically there is no such thing as a Supermajority in the UK.

    A landslide I would say is c. 120+ majority. Some would set the bar a bit lower.

    I suspect that this Tory / Daily Mail Supermajority message is cutting through and I’m not too unhappy about it. If it helps defeat @Leon ’s warped worldview then it’s a double win as far as I’m concerned.

    There seems to be mixed signals. On one hand "its cutting through" - as I have to presume witnessed by this absurd 48 Hours thing. On the other hand the net of seats to LB attack / Tory defend gets stretched further and further.

    It won't people an avalanche of people voting Labour. But they're voting against the Tories. Only a few days to find out if there is a late Tory swingback or not. But lets assume there is, and the "please please no" campaign has "worked" and Labour "only" win a 150 majority

    Bit abject isn't it for the Tories? "We successfully avoided getting crushed! We only got beat by a massive landslide! WooHoo!!!!"
    I would suggest you may be missing the point that many conservatives look on in disgust at Reform and their stated aim to take over the party and are determined to fight for the one nation conservative cause, but also to have at least a viable opposition and yes including an increased lib dem seat count

    I have no idea of Fridays seat totals but disenchantment with all governing parties is at an extreme high, not just here but elsewhere and you only need to witness what is happening in France to be concerned if the centre right is marginalised into irrelevance
    No I get it - we don't want Farage.

    That is a given, the motivation to salvage as many seats as possible. And *that* is my point. The best case scenario - one the party is now spending its remaining cash pleading for - is to only give Labour a landslide.

    How the mighty have fallen. It took Labour over a decade to recover from a badly misguided comedy note channeling Reginald Maudling. How long will it take the Tories to recover from "please don't destroy us, isn't a landslide enough for you?"
    I kinda understand BigG's position. But a clearer signal to the Tories to return to the centre would be to vote for the centre. That's the Lib Dems, probably.
    Or Labour.

    I'm voting Labour for only the second time ever. Literally because they're promising planning reform and principles over party.

    If Tories want centre right voters back, they need to appeal to them.

    Simply being a high tax, high spend, nasty about people who want spending, nasty about foreigners but not nasty enough to stop migration party is appealing to about nobody.
    Fair enough. Good for you. And well argued. One of the most bizarre developments was @Big_G_NorthWales voting Tory despite wanting the Tories out. That one I still haven’t get my head around.
    My original plan to vote Labour has been abandoned because the Labour party have chosen a drop in from London to run in my constituency (leafy, rural, SW Wiltshire). Its frankly rather insulting. So its almost certainly going to be the nice Lib Dem candidate (a consultant at the local hospital). As an aside, as I crossed Morrison's carpark on Saturday a mid thirties lady was conversing with a friend "I just can't vote for Keir Starmer", she said. From the look of her, I suspect Starmer is not left wing enough, but that may be overthinking it...
    He’s neither Left enough or Remain enough for me, but given the way my constituency seems to be going, according to Electoral Calculus, Labour it’s going to be.
    Despite the Labour candidate not being the most inspiring candidate.
    Come Friday, there's going to be endless dreary Labour MPs. And some REALLY dreary LibDems.

    To be fair, they will often be replacing dreary Tory MPs.

    But we'll get to see a new lot engage mouth before brain.
    'Twas ever thus, and ever will be!
    How are you feeling today?
    Thanks for asking. "Trampled by a herd of elephants" about covers it!

    But nothing can dent my cheery disposition.

    (Well, 'til Friday!)
    Very uncomfortable. Best wishes.

    Irrespective of (significant) political differences you are one of the Pb-ers whose posts I look for.
    Specially for MM: a (disappointingly short and with only one, but very impressive, pic) positive piece on moths and moth-ers in the Graun today.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jul/02/moths-habitat-conservation-hampton-court-palace
    Our friend will need gloves before he opens the Grauniad!
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,880
    @LadPolitics

    Some late signs in the betting that the Conservatives are finishing strongly?

    Now 11/10 (from 7/4) to win 100+ seats
    Now 1/10 (from 2/7) to win more votes than Reform UK
    Now 1/7 (from 4/11) to win most seats w/o Labour

    *Appreciate 'strongly' is very much up for debate here
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,483

    So faithfully followed Friday family fun can be cancelled for crucial campaign curries?

    LOL! :D
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,556
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Eabhal said:

    A friend has just pointed out that Starmer might take Friday evenings off for religious reasons. If so, this might be The Mole's finest work.

    (I don't think this has been pointed out on PB so far, but widely noted on twitter)

    Heathener said:

    Sandpit said:

    Christ Biden has had the Trump orange treatment.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c51yx1n15y4o

    You see, you watch that and he's perfectly lucid.

    Only 50 days till the convention.
    Its chalk and cheese compared to the debate. The first 30 minutes of the debate he had no clue where he was, could hardly speak, kept freezing in between answers. If that version of Biden was one of my parents I would be looking at getting them into a care home ASAP.

    He "woke up" a bit second half, then looked back to totally zombified at the end, frozen on the stage.

    I am struggling to buy the argument that it is because he is just old. He spent 7 days off away preparing for the debate so should have been fresh.
    He clearly has good days and bad days, perhaps even good hours and bad hours. It’s genuinely sad to watch, especially the video at the end of the debate, and the subsequent appearance with his wife talking to him like a child while he was just frozen in place.

    He’s clearly not well, and certainly isn’t going to get any better in the next four years. Any loving family should just tap him on the shoulder and say that enough is enough - but political families don’t think like that.
    Well the report came out the other day, 10-4 is really the only hours he normally functions. I mean Starmer taking Friday night off to be with his family is one thing, but leader of the free world who only does office hours of 10-4 on a very good day is something else and will only get worse.
    Good morning.

    One of the awful things about Sunak’s attack on Starmer is the apparent lack of awareness of what Friday night means. He really is hopeless as a politician.

    On which subject, if you’ve never seen Friday Night Dinner then it’s highly recommended. Great comedy.

    I love the fact that Keir is showing the way with something that matters. I’m sick and tired of Sunak’s nasty little attempt to normalise work-until-you-drop ethics in Britain. It may be de rigueur in Silicon Valley start-ups but it does not make for a happier world.


    Ahem, I pointed it out first thing this morning.

    It really is a dreadful moment in the tory campaign. Has considerably pissed me off.
    Incidentally, I also said this probably wasn’t the time and place for lessons in R.E.

    For many Jewish families Friday night is a family / cultural / traditional ‘thing’ rather than a religious one, as it is for more Orthodox adherents. Watch Friday Night Dinner for a great, and very funny, rendition.

    Keir Starmer’s wife is Jewish and as a family they attend a liberal synagogue in North London, and have done for years.

    This attack by Sunak and now Maria Caulfield is the ultimate low point for me. Despicable.
    From an article in the Jewish Chronicle in 2020:
    But Sir Keir then said: “It is perfectly true that my wife’s father is Jewish - they came from Poland - and my wife’s mother converted when they got married.
    “There is a long tradition of family and faith there.
    “We observe some of the practices, for example Friday night prayers, occasionally with my wife’s father – her mum sadly passed away earlier this year.”
    He then added: “My wife in particular wants our children to know the faith of her family.”

    https://www.thejc.com/news/starmer-our-kids-are-being-brought-up-to-know-their-jewish-backgrounds-a1kzavy0
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,112
    Andy_JS said:

    What I can't understand is why the Democrats seem so convinced that any candidate other than Joe Biden would lose to Donald Trump, and therefore have to stick with Biden.

    "They" are not; there's quite obviously (and often publicly) a debate going on between those who want to stick with Biden and those who don't.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,702

    Eabhal said:

    Heathener said:

    Technically there is no such thing as a Supermajority in the UK.

    A landslide I would say is c. 120+ majority. Some would set the bar a bit lower.

    I suspect that this Tory / Daily Mail Supermajority message is cutting through and I’m not too unhappy about it. If it helps defeat @Leon ’s warped worldview then it’s a double win as far as I’m concerned.

    There seems to be mixed signals. On one hand "its cutting through" - as I have to presume witnessed by this absurd 48 Hours thing. On the other hand the net of seats to LB attack / Tory defend gets stretched further and further.

    It won't people an avalanche of people voting Labour. But they're voting against the Tories. Only a few days to find out if there is a late Tory swingback or not. But lets assume there is, and the "please please no" campaign has "worked" and Labour "only" win a 150 majority

    Bit abject isn't it for the Tories? "We successfully avoided getting crushed! We only got beat by a massive landslide! WooHoo!!!!"
    I would suggest you may be missing the point that many conservatives look on in disgust at Reform and their stated aim to take over the party and are determined to fight for the one nation conservative cause, but also to have at least a viable opposition and yes including an increased lib dem seat count

    I have no idea of Fridays seat totals but disenchantment with all governing parties is at an extreme high, not just here but elsewhere and you only need to witness what is happening in France to be concerned if the centre right is marginalised into irrelevance
    No I get it - we don't want Farage.

    That is a given, the motivation to salvage as many seats as possible. And *that* is my point. The best case scenario - one the party is now spending its remaining cash pleading for - is to only give Labour a landslide.

    How the mighty have fallen. It took Labour over a decade to recover from a badly misguided comedy note channeling Reginald Maudling. How long will it take the Tories to recover from "please don't destroy us, isn't a landslide enough for you?"
    I kinda understand BigG's position. But a clearer signal to the Tories to return to the centre would be to vote for the centre. That's the Lib Dems, probably.
    Or Labour.

    I'm voting Labour for only the second time ever. Literally because they're promising planning reform and principles over party.

    If Tories want centre right voters back, they need to appeal to them.

    Simply being a high tax, high spend, nasty about people who want spending, nasty about foreigners but not nasty enough to stop migration party is appealing to about nobody.
    Fair enough. Good for you. And well argued. One of the most bizarre developments was @Big_G_NorthWales voting Tory despite wanting the Tories out. That one I still haven’t get my head around.
    My original plan to vote Labour has been abandoned because the Labour party have chosen a drop in from London to run in my constituency (leafy, rural, SW Wiltshire). Its frankly rather insulting. So its almost certainly going to be the nice Lib Dem candidate (a consultant at the local hospital). As an aside, as I crossed Morrison's carpark on Saturday a mid thirties lady was conversing with a friend "I just can't vote for Keir Starmer", she said. From the look of her, I suspect Starmer is not left wing enough, but that may be overthinking it...
    He’s neither Left enough or Remain enough for me, but given the way my constituency seems to be going, according to Electoral Calculus, Labour it’s going to be.
    Despite the Labour candidate not being the most inspiring candidate.
    Come Friday, there's going to be endless dreary Labour MPs. And some REALLY dreary LibDems.

    To be fair, they will often be replacing dreary Tory MPs.

    But we'll get to see a new lot engage mouth before brain.
    'Twas ever thus, and ever will be!
    How are you feeling today?
    Thanks for asking. "Trampled by a herd of elephants" about covers it!

    But nothing can dent my cheery disposition.

    (Well, 'til Friday!)
    Very uncomfortable. Best wishes.

    Irrespective of (significant) political differences you are one of the Pb-ers whose posts I look for.
    Mainly to learn which famous people his wife knows ;)
  • Options
    MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,545
    carnforth said:

    Has this been discussed? It seems a moderately interesting proposal, though I fear rooting out political lying will never catch on. Quite amusing that it's taking place in the maelstrom of political falsehood that is a GE though.

    https://x.com/OborneTweets/status/1808102040947601472

    Peter Oborne is writing for Waitrose Infowars now? Another man broken by Brexit?
    See for your self:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TADeOmCVo_s

    Seems cogent to me.
  • Options
    BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,440
    AlsoLei said:

    So faithfully followed Friday family fun can be cancelled for crucial campaign curries?

    Making fun of people's traditions is a bit off, no?

    What next, combing through Rishi's campaign diary to see how well he's been sticking to his Sunday-Tuesday fasting?
    It's not my fault that Keir's one famous night out was on Family Friday
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,556
    Lord Mann, a Labour peer who was appointed as antisemitism adviser by Theresa May, said: “The attack on Keir Starmer for asserting his right to family time on a Friday night, as he has done for many, many years, is so dangerous.
    “So insidious from those aware of why he chooses to be with his family specifically on Friday evenings.”
    He told the PA news agency: “It’s a very strange thing to attack over. I’m the independent adviser to the Prime Minister and my advice would be this is not an area to stray into.”
    He pointed out that Friday nights had a wider cultural significance within the Jewish community, likening it to Sundays in Christian communities.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/tories-jewish-prime-minister-wes-streeting-john-mann-b2572420.html
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 20,009

    Eabhal said:

    A friend has just pointed out that Starmer might take Friday evenings off for religious reasons. If so, this might be The Mole's finest work.

    (I don't think this has been pointed out on PB so far, but widely noted on twitter)

    Jewish customs have been mentioned. Tbh I'd be sceptical there is or needs to be any religious element. I suspect it comes from people who do not know many Jews but have read a Wikipedia page (eta and who also do not know it is customary for PMs to spend weekends at Chequers, which is why Boris did not take part in Wine Time Fridays). It is a family tradition that quite possibly did start for religious reasons generations back but is now just something they do.
    Sir KS is clear that it is intentional and about helping his children appreciate that part of their grandparents' heritage.

    I am delighted to see maintenance of family relatonships being institutionalsed by a prominent individual, however it is done.
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,069
    Scott_xP said:

    @LadPolitics

    Some late signs in the betting that the Conservatives are finishing strongly?

    Now 11/10 (from 7/4) to win 100+ seats
    Now 1/10 (from 2/7) to win more votes than Reform UK
    Now 1/7 (from 4/11) to win most seats w/o Labour

    *Appreciate 'strongly' is very much up for debate here

    Feeling good about my green position on 100-200 Cons seats. Thanks to a few people on here for helping me to take the plunge on this election.

    The Conservatives always pick up some support in the final few days.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,483

    AlsoLei said:

    So faithfully followed Friday family fun can be cancelled for crucial campaign curries?

    Making fun of people's traditions is a bit off, no?

    What next, combing through Rishi's campaign diary to see how well he's been sticking to his Sunday-Tuesday fasting?
    It's not my fault that Keir's one famous night out was on Family Friday
    Blanche on fire 👌
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,112

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    This imbecile literally endorsed a convicted felon.

    Speaker Mike Johnson on Fox News: "The president and VP are the only two offices in our constitutional system that are elected by all the people. No one who is elected to that office is going to be prone to this kind of crazy criminal activity."
    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1807930573207302602

    He is not an imbecile. He is an a*se-kisser who hopes for largesse from King Donald I after his coronation.

    What I am wondering is this: since all official Presidential acts are above the law now, what is stopping King Biden I from tossing the Justices and Trump into a dungeon without trial?

    Apparently, the legality cannot be an issue...
    He's an imbecile.

    What's stopping Biden ?
    He thinks it would be wrong.

    A constitutional ruling enabling criminals applies to all, but is really only to the benefit of those who want to commit crimes.
    Biden is an 81 year old who says he has the best interests of American democracy at heart. He has been handed unlimited power which is likely to get into the hands of some demagogue in the future.

    He could take one for the team and take steps to clean up the criminal cesspits swirling around Donald Trump.

    What's Biden worried about? Effects on his future career?
    I assume you're joking, but to answer your question, you don't get to be a bit fascist for a couple of months and then pretend it didn't happen.
    The only way to undo the damage is democratically.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 116,563
    Angela Rayner and Penny Mordaunt among politicians targeted by deepfake porn site

    ‘Violating’ doctored photos of female candidates being hosted on explicit website


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/07/02/angela-rayner-and-penny-mordaunt-targeted-deepfake-porn/
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,534

    AlsoLei said:

    So faithfully followed Friday family fun can be cancelled for crucial campaign curries?

    Making fun of people's traditions is a bit off, no?

    What next, combing through Rishi's campaign diary to see how well he's been sticking to his Sunday-Tuesday fasting?
    It's not my fault that Keir's one famous night out was on Family Friday
    A sycophant writes; it is not Sir Keir's fault, but his misfortune, that urgent national business occurred on a Friday.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,702

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Eabhal said:

    A friend has just pointed out that Starmer might take Friday evenings off for religious reasons. If so, this might be The Mole's finest work.

    (I don't think this has been pointed out on PB so far, but widely noted on twitter)

    Heathener said:

    Sandpit said:

    Christ Biden has had the Trump orange treatment.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c51yx1n15y4o

    You see, you watch that and he's perfectly lucid.

    Only 50 days till the convention.
    Its chalk and cheese compared to the debate. The first 30 minutes of the debate he had no clue where he was, could hardly speak, kept freezing in between answers. If that version of Biden was one of my parents I would be looking at getting them into a care home ASAP.

    He "woke up" a bit second half, then looked back to totally zombified at the end, frozen on the stage.

    I am struggling to buy the argument that it is because he is just old. He spent 7 days off away preparing for the debate so should have been fresh.
    He clearly has good days and bad days, perhaps even good hours and bad hours. It’s genuinely sad to watch, especially the video at the end of the debate, and the subsequent appearance with his wife talking to him like a child while he was just frozen in place.

    He’s clearly not well, and certainly isn’t going to get any better in the next four years. Any loving family should just tap him on the shoulder and say that enough is enough - but political families don’t think like that.
    Well the report came out the other day, 10-4 is really the only hours he normally functions. I mean Starmer taking Friday night off to be with his family is one thing, but leader of the free world who only does office hours of 10-4 on a very good day is something else and will only get worse.
    Good morning.

    One of the awful things about Sunak’s attack on Starmer is the apparent lack of awareness of what Friday night means. He really is hopeless as a politician.

    On which subject, if you’ve never seen Friday Night Dinner then it’s highly recommended. Great comedy.

    I love the fact that Keir is showing the way with something that matters. I’m sick and tired of Sunak’s nasty little attempt to normalise work-until-you-drop ethics in Britain. It may be de rigueur in Silicon Valley start-ups but it does not make for a happier world.


    Ahem, I pointed it out first thing this morning.

    It really is a dreadful moment in the tory campaign. Has considerably pissed me off.
    Incidentally, I also said this probably wasn’t the time and place for lessons in R.E.

    For many Jewish families Friday night is a family / cultural / traditional ‘thing’ rather than a religious one, as it is for more Orthodox adherents. Watch Friday Night Dinner for a great, and very funny, rendition.

    Keir Starmer’s wife is Jewish and as a family they attend a liberal synagogue in North London, and have done for years.

    This attack by Sunak and now Maria Caulfield is the ultimate low point for me. Despicable.
    Sabbath starts on Friday Evening (nightfall) and runs to Saturday evening (nightfall).

    Back to the two/three days argument.

    Friday evening meal is their equivalent of Sunday Lunch.

    Sunak is an ignorant idiot.
    I'd be careful with this line of argument. It is a truism; it is like saying Catholics eat fish on Fridays; many do, and it might have started for religious reasons, but not for centuries. It is not true of all Jews and probably not most. In any case, anyone very religious would not have married out in the first place.
  • Options
    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,840

    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    Eabhal said:

    A friend has just pointed out that Starmer might take Friday evenings off for religious reasons. If so, this might be The Mole's finest work.

    (I don't think this has been pointed out on PB so far, but widely noted on twitter)

    I think it has been pointed out.
    If it is the case (which would be fair enough), it's slightly odd that Starmer has avoided mentioning it rather than majoring on wanting to spend time with his beloved kids (also fair enough). Perhaps it's devilish cunning in that he can now quietly say the Tories are worse than Julius Streicher.
    Also: Tories going on about Labour antisemitism ... doesn't work quite so well, does it?
    A Tory anti-Semitism scandal over the last two days of the post-Corbyn election wouldn't make it into a script.
    Well, there's this.
    Oops, I forgot, Le Pen and her formerly antisemitic pals are now bulwarks against antisemitism.

    https://x.com/MrJohnNicolson/status/1808099855371252218

    Schrodinger's Whites again.
  • Options
    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,327
    John Mann, the govt's antisemitism advisor says:

    “The attack on Keir Starmer for asserting his right to family time on a Friday night, as he has done for many, many years, is so dangerous.

    “So insidious from those aware of why he chooses to be with his family specifically on Friday evenings.”

    He told the PA news agency: “It’s a very strange thing to attack over. I’m the independent adviser to the Prime Minister and my advice would be this is not an area to stray into.”

    He pointed out that Friday nights had a wider cultural significance within the Jewish community, likening it to Sundays in Christian communities.

    “There’s a reason Parliament does not sit on Sundays.”

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/starmer-hits-out-at-ridiculous-tory-criticism-over-friday-night-schedule/ar-BB1pgM2r

    Sunak needs to shut this attack down or he risks it blowing up in his face.
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,294
    Nigelb said:

    Andy_JS said:

    What I can't understand is why the Democrats seem so convinced that any candidate other than Joe Biden would lose to Donald Trump, and therefore have to stick with Biden.

    "They" are not; there's quite obviously (and often publicly) a debate going on between those who want to stick with Biden and those who don't.
    Relatedly, the person whose decision matters here isn't The Democrats, it's Joe Biden.
  • Options
    kamskikamski Posts: 4,484

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Eabhal said:

    A friend has just pointed out that Starmer might take Friday evenings off for religious reasons. If so, this might be The Mole's finest work.

    (I don't think this has been pointed out on PB so far, but widely noted on twitter)

    Heathener said:

    Sandpit said:

    Christ Biden has had the Trump orange treatment.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c51yx1n15y4o

    You see, you watch that and he's perfectly lucid.

    Only 50 days till the convention.
    Its chalk and cheese compared to the debate. The first 30 minutes of the debate he had no clue where he was, could hardly speak, kept freezing in between answers. If that version of Biden was one of my parents I would be looking at getting them into a care home ASAP.

    He "woke up" a bit second half, then looked back to totally zombified at the end, frozen on the stage.

    I am struggling to buy the argument that it is because he is just old. He spent 7 days off away preparing for the debate so should have been fresh.
    He clearly has good days and bad days, perhaps even good hours and bad hours. It’s genuinely sad to watch, especially the video at the end of the debate, and the subsequent appearance with his wife talking to him like a child while he was just frozen in place.

    He’s clearly not well, and certainly isn’t going to get any better in the next four years. Any loving family should just tap him on the shoulder and say that enough is enough - but political families don’t think like that.
    Well the report came out the other day, 10-4 is really the only hours he normally functions. I mean Starmer taking Friday night off to be with his family is one thing, but leader of the free world who only does office hours of 10-4 on a very good day is something else and will only get worse.
    Good morning.

    One of the awful things about Sunak’s attack on Starmer is the apparent lack of awareness of what Friday night means. He really is hopeless as a politician.

    On which subject, if you’ve never seen Friday Night Dinner then it’s highly recommended. Great comedy.

    I love the fact that Keir is showing the way with something that matters. I’m sick and tired of Sunak’s nasty little attempt to normalise work-until-you-drop ethics in Britain. It may be de rigueur in Silicon Valley start-ups but it does not make for a happier world.


    Ahem, I pointed it out first thing this morning.

    It really is a dreadful moment in the tory campaign. Has considerably pissed me off.
    Incidentally, I also said this probably wasn’t the time and place for lessons in R.E.

    For many Jewish families Friday night is a family / cultural / traditional ‘thing’ rather than a religious one, as it is for more Orthodox adherents. Watch Friday Night Dinner for a great, and very funny, rendition.

    Keir Starmer’s wife is Jewish and as a family they attend a liberal synagogue in North London, and have done for years.

    This attack by Sunak and now Maria Caulfield is the ultimate low point for me. Despicable.
    Sabbath starts on Friday Evening (nightfall) and runs to Saturday evening (nightfall).

    Back to the two/three days argument.

    Friday evening meal is their equivalent of Sunday Lunch.

    Sunak is an ignorant idiot.
    Or worse - there's been a calculation that it will help them in some seats to let people know Starmer's wife is Jewish? Unlikely, I admit, but you'd think that Sunak was aware of the Jewish angle.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,497
    https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?tab=rm&ogbl#inbox/WhctKLbFTwqSBgvjSkvrWfpjwJwXPSMMhcVkzrqVHGCLxsMsSsltFNTKJxJHbjrDdcLKzZq

    Speciallyt for @RochdalePioneers -

    "ANAS Sarwar has rejected calls for him to back the SNP campaign against outgoing Scottish Tory leader Douglas Ross – despite Labour not standing a candidate in the constituency."
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 29,692
    GIN1138 said:

    My guess:

    Green > Lab

    Ref/DK > Con
    I agree about Ref/DK -> Con. Not sure about Green -> Lab. If that happens Lab would obviously be up as well in the polls, but I don't think they will be.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 50,538

    Eabhal said:

    A friend has just pointed out that Starmer might take Friday evenings off for religious reasons. If so, this might be The Mole's finest work.

    (I don't think this has been pointed out on PB so far, but widely noted on twitter)

    I think it has been pointed out.
    If it is the case (which would be fair enough), it's slightly odd that Starmer has avoided mentioning it rather than majoring on wanting to spend time with his beloved kids (also fair enough). Perhaps it's devilish cunning in that he can now quietly say the Tories are worse than Julius Streicher.
    Perhaps Starmer doesn’t want to mention his “zio” wife and her Jewish faith because he knows he gets millions of votes from borderline anti Semites in the corbynite and Muslim communities

    Indeed, I’m pretty sure that’s part of his reasoning
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 16,210
    mwadams said:

    biggles said:

    Jimmy Anderson is bowling for Lancashire today. His figures are now:

    5-13 off 7.4 overs.

    He's nearly 42.

    I tell you what, our second line bowlers must be amazing if he’s been asked to step aside.

    *Checks Robinson’s figures*

    Hmmm
    Next Ashes is in Australia where the pitches and ball do not suite a medium pace swing bowler (albeit probably the greatest swing bowler of all time).
    I'd still back 42yo Anderson to get wickets when we need them, even in those conditions.
    I wouldn't. His track record in Aussie is not great. You need a different kind of bowler there. In Aussie in 21 test matches he has 68 wickets at 34 with a strike rate of 72.7. Career overall is 26.52 with SR of 56.9. In England (and thus English conditions) he is 24.5 with SR of just 52.4.

    He has been and still is a great bowler, but at some point other bowlers need the chance to play and become test players.
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,512
    kamski said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Eabhal said:

    A friend has just pointed out that Starmer might take Friday evenings off for religious reasons. If so, this might be The Mole's finest work.

    (I don't think this has been pointed out on PB so far, but widely noted on twitter)

    Heathener said:

    Sandpit said:

    Christ Biden has had the Trump orange treatment.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c51yx1n15y4o

    You see, you watch that and he's perfectly lucid.

    Only 50 days till the convention.
    Its chalk and cheese compared to the debate. The first 30 minutes of the debate he had no clue where he was, could hardly speak, kept freezing in between answers. If that version of Biden was one of my parents I would be looking at getting them into a care home ASAP.

    He "woke up" a bit second half, then looked back to totally zombified at the end, frozen on the stage.

    I am struggling to buy the argument that it is because he is just old. He spent 7 days off away preparing for the debate so should have been fresh.
    He clearly has good days and bad days, perhaps even good hours and bad hours. It’s genuinely sad to watch, especially the video at the end of the debate, and the subsequent appearance with his wife talking to him like a child while he was just frozen in place.

    He’s clearly not well, and certainly isn’t going to get any better in the next four years. Any loving family should just tap him on the shoulder and say that enough is enough - but political families don’t think like that.
    Well the report came out the other day, 10-4 is really the only hours he normally functions. I mean Starmer taking Friday night off to be with his family is one thing, but leader of the free world who only does office hours of 10-4 on a very good day is something else and will only get worse.
    Good morning.

    One of the awful things about Sunak’s attack on Starmer is the apparent lack of awareness of what Friday night means. He really is hopeless as a politician.

    On which subject, if you’ve never seen Friday Night Dinner then it’s highly recommended. Great comedy.

    I love the fact that Keir is showing the way with something that matters. I’m sick and tired of Sunak’s nasty little attempt to normalise work-until-you-drop ethics in Britain. It may be de rigueur in Silicon Valley start-ups but it does not make for a happier world.


    Ahem, I pointed it out first thing this morning.

    It really is a dreadful moment in the tory campaign. Has considerably pissed me off.
    Incidentally, I also said this probably wasn’t the time and place for lessons in R.E.

    For many Jewish families Friday night is a family / cultural / traditional ‘thing’ rather than a religious one, as it is for more Orthodox adherents. Watch Friday Night Dinner for a great, and very funny, rendition.

    Keir Starmer’s wife is Jewish and as a family they attend a liberal synagogue in North London, and have done for years.

    This attack by Sunak and now Maria Caulfield is the ultimate low point for me. Despicable.
    Sabbath starts on Friday Evening (nightfall) and runs to Saturday evening (nightfall).

    Back to the two/three days argument.

    Friday evening meal is their equivalent of Sunday Lunch.

    Sunak is an ignorant idiot.
    Or worse - there's been a calculation that it will help them in some seats to let people know Starmer's wife is Jewish? Unlikely, I admit, but you'd think that Sunak was aware of the Jewish angle.
    That assumes that Sunak has much input into the campaign strategy at this stage.

    If such a thing exists, rather than a frantic flinging of dung around in the hope that something, anything, sticks until 10 pm Thursday.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,787

    Nigelb said:

    Andy_JS said:

    What I can't understand is why the Democrats seem so convinced that any candidate other than Joe Biden would lose to Donald Trump, and therefore have to stick with Biden.

    "They" are not; there's quite obviously (and often publicly) a debate going on between those who want to stick with Biden and those who don't.
    Relatedly, the person whose decision matters here isn't The Democrats, it's Joe Biden.
    More opinion pieces today in NY Times saying he has to step down.

    Do a LBJ as one piece by a historian argues.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,629
    Can see why the Tories might not like this idea:

    @ElectionMapsUK
    ·
    1m
    Westminster Voting Intention [16-17 Year Olds]:

    LAB: 39%
    RFM: 23%
    GRN: 18%
    LDM: 9%
    CON: 5%

    Via
    @JLPartnersPolls
    .


    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1808115156968145103
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,069
    edited July 2
    kamski said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Eabhal said:

    A friend has just pointed out that Starmer might take Friday evenings off for religious reasons. If so, this might be The Mole's finest work.

    (I don't think this has been pointed out on PB so far, but widely noted on twitter)

    Heathener said:

    Sandpit said:

    Christ Biden has had the Trump orange treatment.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c51yx1n15y4o

    You see, you watch that and he's perfectly lucid.

    Only 50 days till the convention.
    Its chalk and cheese compared to the debate. The first 30 minutes of the debate he had no clue where he was, could hardly speak, kept freezing in between answers. If that version of Biden was one of my parents I would be looking at getting them into a care home ASAP.

    He "woke up" a bit second half, then looked back to totally zombified at the end, frozen on the stage.

    I am struggling to buy the argument that it is because he is just old. He spent 7 days off away preparing for the debate so should have been fresh.
    He clearly has good days and bad days, perhaps even good hours and bad hours. It’s genuinely sad to watch, especially the video at the end of the debate, and the subsequent appearance with his wife talking to him like a child while he was just frozen in place.

    He’s clearly not well, and certainly isn’t going to get any better in the next four years. Any loving family should just tap him on the shoulder and say that enough is enough - but political families don’t think like that.
    Well the report came out the other day, 10-4 is really the only hours he normally functions. I mean Starmer taking Friday night off to be with his family is one thing, but leader of the free world who only does office hours of 10-4 on a very good day is something else and will only get worse.
    Good morning.

    One of the awful things about Sunak’s attack on Starmer is the apparent lack of awareness of what Friday night means. He really is hopeless as a politician.

    On which subject, if you’ve never seen Friday Night Dinner then it’s highly recommended. Great comedy.

    I love the fact that Keir is showing the way with something that matters. I’m sick and tired of Sunak’s nasty little attempt to normalise work-until-you-drop ethics in Britain. It may be de rigueur in Silicon Valley start-ups but it does not make for a happier world.


    Ahem, I pointed it out first thing this morning.

    It really is a dreadful moment in the tory campaign. Has considerably pissed me off.
    Incidentally, I also said this probably wasn’t the time and place for lessons in R.E.

    For many Jewish families Friday night is a family / cultural / traditional ‘thing’ rather than a religious one, as it is for more Orthodox adherents. Watch Friday Night Dinner for a great, and very funny, rendition.

    Keir Starmer’s wife is Jewish and as a family they attend a liberal synagogue in North London, and have done for years.

    This attack by Sunak and now Maria Caulfield is the ultimate low point for me. Despicable.
    Sabbath starts on Friday Evening (nightfall) and runs to Saturday evening (nightfall).

    Back to the two/three days argument.

    Friday evening meal is their equivalent of Sunday Lunch.

    Sunak is an ignorant idiot.
    Or worse - there's been a calculation that it will help them in some seats to let people know Starmer's wife is Jewish? Unlikely, I admit, but you'd think that Sunak was aware of the Jewish angle.
    I don’t think it’s deliberate anti-semitism. Rather yet another sign of Sunak’s political ineptitude. He thought he was making a clever, possibly funny, observation about how hard he works vs Keir Starmer but has totally failed to understand people’s lives.
    I am almost beginning to dislike him more than Boris Johnson. At least Bojo connected with people.

    Maria Caulfield doubling down on it, and spreading further lies, is breathtaking though. She’s the minister for mental health and women’s health. But not for much longer.

    I’m very peed off about this. It has annoyed me more than D-Day.
  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,547
    Politics is a funny old game.

    The implication that Sunak was being antisemitic rather than just making a silly point is obvious nonsense. However the Tories play this game on Labour politicians all the time so can’t complain any more than Labour can the next time this sort of thing is done to them.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 50,538

    Can see why the Tories might not like this idea:

    @ElectionMapsUK
    ·
    1m
    Westminster Voting Intention [16-17 Year Olds]:

    LAB: 39%
    RFM: 23%
    GRN: 18%
    LDM: 9%
    CON: 5%

    Via
    @JLPartnersPolls
    .


    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1808115156968145103

    Someone show this to the ph lefties. The young are moving sharply to the hard right
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,896
    Carnyx said:

    https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?tab=rm&ogbl#inbox/WhctKLbFTwqSBgvjSkvrWfpjwJwXPSMMhcVkzrqVHGCLxsMsSsltFNTKJxJHbjrDdcLKzZq

    Speciallyt for @RochdalePioneers -

    "ANAS Sarwar has rejected calls for him to back the SNP campaign against outgoing Scottish Tory leader Douglas Ross – despite Labour not standing a candidate in the constituency."

    ‘Look, we can’t work with the SNP, they are beyond the pale (unlike Rassemblement National).’
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,655
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Eabhal said:

    A friend has just pointed out that Starmer might take Friday evenings off for religious reasons. If so, this might be The Mole's finest work.

    (I don't think this has been pointed out on PB so far, but widely noted on twitter)

    Heathener said:

    Sandpit said:

    Christ Biden has had the Trump orange treatment.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c51yx1n15y4o

    You see, you watch that and he's perfectly lucid.

    Only 50 days till the convention.
    Its chalk and cheese compared to the debate. The first 30 minutes of the debate he had no clue where he was, could hardly speak, kept freezing in between answers. If that version of Biden was one of my parents I would be looking at getting them into a care home ASAP.

    He "woke up" a bit second half, then looked back to totally zombified at the end, frozen on the stage.

    I am struggling to buy the argument that it is because he is just old. He spent 7 days off away preparing for the debate so should have been fresh.
    He clearly has good days and bad days, perhaps even good hours and bad hours. It’s genuinely sad to watch, especially the video at the end of the debate, and the subsequent appearance with his wife talking to him like a child while he was just frozen in place.

    He’s clearly not well, and certainly isn’t going to get any better in the next four years. Any loving family should just tap him on the shoulder and say that enough is enough - but political families don’t think like that.
    Well the report came out the other day, 10-4 is really the only hours he normally functions. I mean Starmer taking Friday night off to be with his family is one thing, but leader of the free world who only does office hours of 10-4 on a very good day is something else and will only get worse.
    Good morning.

    One of the awful things about Sunak’s attack on Starmer is the apparent lack of awareness of what Friday night means. He really is hopeless as a politician.

    On which subject, if you’ve never seen Friday Night Dinner then it’s highly recommended. Great comedy.

    I love the fact that Keir is showing the way with something that matters. I’m sick and tired of Sunak’s nasty little attempt to normalise work-until-you-drop ethics in Britain. It may be de rigueur in Silicon Valley start-ups but it does not make for a happier world.


    Ahem, I pointed it out first thing this morning.

    It really is a dreadful moment in the tory campaign. Has considerably pissed me off.
    Incidentally, I also said this probably wasn’t the time and place for lessons in R.E.

    For many Jewish families Friday night is a family / cultural / traditional ‘thing’ rather than a religious one, as it is for more Orthodox adherents. Watch Friday Night Dinner for a great, and very funny, rendition.

    Keir Starmer’s wife is Jewish and as a family they attend a liberal synagogue in North London, and have done for years.

    This attack by Sunak and now Maria Caulfield is the ultimate low point for me. Despicable.
    He should take a different job then , your employment cannot be run around your religion that is mental. Christians hav eto work on Sundays for example. Pathetic excuse for slacking.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,644
    Carnyx said:

    Eabhal said:

    Heathener said:

    Technically there is no such thing as a Supermajority in the UK.

    A landslide I would say is c. 120+ majority. Some would set the bar a bit lower.

    I suspect that this Tory / Daily Mail Supermajority message is cutting through and I’m not too unhappy about it. If it helps defeat @Leon ’s warped worldview then it’s a double win as far as I’m concerned.

    There seems to be mixed signals. On one hand "its cutting through" - as I have to presume witnessed by this absurd 48 Hours thing. On the other hand the net of seats to LB attack / Tory defend gets stretched further and further.

    It won't people an avalanche of people voting Labour. But they're voting against the Tories. Only a few days to find out if there is a late Tory swingback or not. But lets assume there is, and the "please please no" campaign has "worked" and Labour "only" win a 150 majority

    Bit abject isn't it for the Tories? "We successfully avoided getting crushed! We only got beat by a massive landslide! WooHoo!!!!"
    I would suggest you may be missing the point that many conservatives look on in disgust at Reform and their stated aim to take over the party and are determined to fight for the one nation conservative cause, but also to have at least a viable opposition and yes including an increased lib dem seat count

    I have no idea of Fridays seat totals but disenchantment with all governing parties is at an extreme high, not just here but elsewhere and you only need to witness what is happening in France to be concerned if the centre right is marginalised into irrelevance
    No I get it - we don't want Farage.

    That is a given, the motivation to salvage as many seats as possible. And *that* is my point. The best case scenario - one the party is now spending its remaining cash pleading for - is to only give Labour a landslide.

    How the mighty have fallen. It took Labour over a decade to recover from a badly misguided comedy note channeling Reginald Maudling. How long will it take the Tories to recover from "please don't destroy us, isn't a landslide enough for you?"
    I kinda understand BigG's position. But a clearer signal to the Tories to return to the centre would be to vote for the centre. That's the Lib Dems, probably.
    Or Labour.

    I'm voting Labour for only the second time ever. Literally because they're promising planning reform and principles over party.

    If Tories want centre right voters back, they need to appeal to them.

    Simply being a high tax, high spend, nasty about people who want spending, nasty about foreigners but not nasty enough to stop migration party is appealing to about nobody.
    Fair enough. Good for you. And well argued. One of the most bizarre developments was @Big_G_NorthWales voting Tory despite wanting the Tories out. That one I still haven’t get my head around.
    My original plan to vote Labour has been abandoned because the Labour party have chosen a drop in from London to run in my constituency (leafy, rural, SW Wiltshire). Its frankly rather insulting. So its almost certainly going to be the nice Lib Dem candidate (a consultant at the local hospital). As an aside, as I crossed Morrison's carpark on Saturday a mid thirties lady was conversing with a friend "I just can't vote for Keir Starmer", she said. From the look of her, I suspect Starmer is not left wing enough, but that may be overthinking it...
    He’s neither Left enough or Remain enough for me, but given the way my constituency seems to be going, according to Electoral Calculus, Labour it’s going to be.
    Despite the Labour candidate not being the most inspiring candidate.
    Come Friday, there's going to be endless dreary Labour MPs. And some REALLY dreary LibDems.

    To be fair, they will often be replacing dreary Tory MPs.

    But we'll get to see a new lot engage mouth before brain.
    'Twas ever thus, and ever will be!
    How are you feeling today?
    Thanks for asking. "Trampled by a herd of elephants" about covers it!

    But nothing can dent my cheery disposition.

    (Well, 'til Friday!)
    Very uncomfortable. Best wishes.

    Irrespective of (significant) political differences you are one of the Pb-ers whose posts I look for.
    Specially for MM: a (disappointingly short and with only one, but very impressive, pic) positive piece on moths and moth-ers in the Graun today.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jul/02/moths-habitat-conservation-hampton-court-palace
    I will be eternally grateful to MM as he was largely responsible for getting me into mothing a few years ago. I had the trap out only a few nights ago which was, in itself, disturbing given the drop in numbers and species from last year.
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,069
    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    A friend has just pointed out that Starmer might take Friday evenings off for religious reasons. If so, this might be The Mole's finest work.

    (I don't think this has been pointed out on PB so far, but widely noted on twitter)

    I think it has been pointed out.
    If it is the case (which would be fair enough), it's slightly odd that Starmer has avoided mentioning it rather than majoring on wanting to spend time with his beloved kids (also fair enough). Perhaps it's devilish cunning in that he can now quietly say the Tories are worse than Julius Streicher.
    Perhaps Starmer doesn’t want to mention his “zio” wife and her Jewish faith because he knows he gets millions of votes from borderline anti Semites in the corbynite and Muslim communities

    Indeed, I’m pretty sure that’s part of his reasoning
    No. He has been trying to protect his wife, children and family life.

    So no wonder you don’t understand the concept and have to find an alternative rabbit hole explanation.
  • Options
    OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006

    How well would a Whitmer/Ossoff ticket poll against Trump?

    Pretty well. I've got a long standing bet on Whitmer at 21. Might struggle with the black vote unless it is very clear that Harris didn't want to run and wasn't pushed out of the running.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,483

    Can see why the Tories might not like this idea:

    @ElectionMapsUK
    ·
    1m
    Westminster Voting Intention [16-17 Year Olds]:

    LAB: 39%
    RFM: 23%
    GRN: 18%
    LDM: 9%
    CON: 5%

    Via
    @JLPartnersPolls
    .


    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1808115156968145103

    The issue will be getting them to actually vote. It's hard enough to get 18-24 year olds to vote but will be even harder to get 16-17 year olds to vote.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 29,692
    Harriet Dart wins her match v Zhuoxuan Bai.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,665

    Stocky said:

    Starmer's family must really dread Friday nights.

    The Tories need to be careful. Starmers Family is Jewish and the Sabbath runs from Friday evening to Saturday evening
    Indeed. By the way, I owe you an apology. Thanks for your explanation – I do remember @Paul_Bedfordshire and the cap fits. Sorry about the accusation you were @MrEd – a very odd poster who was a Trumpian shill and hated buses. I've enjoyed many of your posts today in particular.

    Apologies.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 50,538
    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    A friend has just pointed out that Starmer might take Friday evenings off for religious reasons. If so, this might be The Mole's finest work.

    (I don't think this has been pointed out on PB so far, but widely noted on twitter)

    I think it has been pointed out.
    If it is the case (which would be fair enough), it's slightly odd that Starmer has avoided mentioning it rather than majoring on wanting to spend time with his beloved kids (also fair enough). Perhaps it's devilish cunning in that he can now quietly say the Tories are worse than Julius Streicher.
    Perhaps Starmer doesn’t want to mention his “zio” wife and her Jewish faith because he knows he gets millions of votes from borderline anti Semites in the corbynite and Muslim communities

    Indeed, I’m pretty sure that’s part of his reasoning
    No. He has been trying to protect his wife, children and family life.

    So no wonder you don’t understand the concept and have to find an alternative rabbit hole explanation.
    You’re either wilfully naive or outright dumb. Deliciously, I suspect you are both
  • Options
    boulayboulay Posts: 4,941
    AlsoLei said:

    John Mann, the govt's antisemitism advisor says:

    “The attack on Keir Starmer for asserting his right to family time on a Friday night, as he has done for many, many years, is so dangerous.

    “So insidious from those aware of why he chooses to be with his family specifically on Friday evenings.”

    He told the PA news agency: “It’s a very strange thing to attack over. I’m the independent adviser to the Prime Minister and my advice would be this is not an area to stray into.”

    He pointed out that Friday nights had a wider cultural significance within the Jewish community, likening it to Sundays in Christian communities.

    “There’s a reason Parliament does not sit on Sundays.”

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/starmer-hits-out-at-ridiculous-tory-criticism-over-friday-night-schedule/ar-BB1pgM2r

    Sunak needs to shut this attack down or he risks it blowing up in his face.

    So Starmer makes public that he will try to carry on with the habit he has had for some years of making sure that he does not work on Friday nights so he can spend time with his wife and children (no mention that he does not work Friday nights for religious or cultural reasons but because he’s Mr Family).

    Why does he make this public? I’m guessing he thought it showed him as a family man with a good work life balance?

    People start attacking him saying he shouldn’t do this as he’s going to be PM and the country doesn’t stop at 6 on a Friday.

    Now it’s suddenly a matter of religious observance and so it’s awful to criticise him for doing it.

    So it’s not actually about him keeping a work/life balance but about him observing a cultural norm reflecting the region of his wife and children. So an obligation not a choice.

    Why didn’t he just mention the religious aspect of this in the first place? I might be overly cynical but I’m wondering if perhaps he thought he would get cred points with voters without losing cred points with another section of voters.

    He tried to play a game, got kicked for it and now saying you can’t kick him because it’s anti-Semitic.

  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,547
    AlsoLei said:

    John Mann, the govt's antisemitism advisor says:

    “The attack on Keir Starmer for asserting his right to family time on a Friday night, as he has done for many, many years, is so dangerous.

    “So insidious from those aware of why he chooses to be with his family specifically on Friday evenings.”

    He told the PA news agency: “It’s a very strange thing to attack over. I’m the independent adviser to the Prime Minister and my advice would be this is not an area to stray into.”

    He pointed out that Friday nights had a wider cultural significance within the Jewish community, likening it to Sundays in Christian communities.

    “There’s a reason Parliament does not sit on Sundays.”

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/starmer-hits-out-at-ridiculous-tory-criticism-over-friday-night-schedule/ar-BB1pgM2r

    Sunak needs to shut this attack down or he risks it blowing up in his face.

    “There’s a reason Parliament does not sit on Sundays” is a silly line.

    Parliament has, of course, sat on Sundays in the past, and will do again.. The reason it doesn’t usually sit on Sundays (it used to sit on Saturdays in the same way most people worked on Saturday mornings) is the same as for everyone else. Not directly religious at all (it’s indirectly religious because the first commonly accepted day off was always going to be Sunday, but the religious connection has long since gone).
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,699
    edited July 2
    Good Lord, look at what's in the pipeline for VI come the 2030s !

    16/17 yr old

    Males:

    REF: 35%
    LAB: 35%
    LDEM: 11%
    CON: 11%
    GRN: 2%

    Females:

    LAB: 43%
    GRN: 33%
    REF: 12%
    LDEM: 8%
    CON: 0%

    Anecdotally this feels correct to me.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 116,563
    Leon said:

    Can see why the Tories might not like this idea:

    @ElectionMapsUK
    ·
    1m
    Westminster Voting Intention [16-17 Year Olds]:

    LAB: 39%
    RFM: 23%
    GRN: 18%
    LDM: 9%
    CON: 5%

    Via
    @JLPartnersPolls
    .


    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1808115156968145103

    Someone show this to the ph lefties. The young are moving sharply to the hard right
    Who was that roaster telling us young females are going overwhelmingly hard right?

    From that sample.

    Females:

    LAB: 43%
    GRN: 33%
    REF: 12%
    LDEM: 8%
    CON: 0%
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,644
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rkelk said:

    Snippet from the Independent. Not sure how reliable put thought I'd share.

    "Lord Hayward’s analysis is supported by feedback from Conservatives in the so-called red wall areas in the North and Midlands.

    In the North East, Tees Valley mayor Ben Houchen, who held on in May despite what the polls suggested, told The Independent: “It’s pretty positive. I’m hopeful if our data is right.”

    A number of Tory MPs in the North West, Midlands and Yorkshire believe they can hold on, including in one constituency where the bookmakers are quoting 10/1 on a Conservative victory. The polls would suggest they have no chance.

    Bassetlaw MP Brendan Clarke-Smith, who thinks his seat is too close to call, has suggested that Reform UK are picking up more Labour voters in his area.

    However, the Conservatives are far more gloomy about the south of England – the so-called blue wall of traditionally safe Tory seats – where they expect to suffer significant losses, including potentially a number of cabinet ministers, headed by chancellor Jeremy Hunt in Surrey.

    However, it is understood that Labour is “nervous” about the result, with so many undecided voters."

    I have been saying 1992 for years. I will apologise on Friday if I am wrong but I demand an apology myself if Rishi remains Prime Minister!
    I don't see this being 1992. But I do think it possible we could end up with a far smaller Labour majority than has been predicted te last few weeks. Sadly it also means the Tory party will fail to slide down the plughole.
    Sadly only in the sense you want Farage to be Leader of the Opposition which most on here don't
    No, as I have made absolutely clear on many occasions, I don't want Farage anywhere near the Tory party, or power. I just don't want the Tory party to survive. It will send a powerful message to the other parties and politicians generally if the oldest party in British politics ends up in the sewer.

    A new centre right party/grouping would obviously emerge and hopefully would realise that taking the electorate for granted for 200 years or more is no longer acceptable.
    If you don't want the Tory party to survive you end up with Farage ultimately LOTO and Reform taking over the Tories, sorry.

    Under FPTP you ain't getting another centre right party other than the Tories, certainly not the current LDs
    Rubbish. Unless and until we get PR (which is what he wants) Farage is not going to get anywhere near leading the centre right by dint of the simple fact that he is not centre right. He will not be able to take the large majority of centre voters with him. So another party will emerge without the baggage of incompetence and corruption that has marked the Tories since Major. The Right is now pretty much irrevocably split and much of that is due to the arrogance and ineptitude of the Tory party.
    The same 'Rubbish' as your assurance pre EU referendum voting Leave would just see us stay in the single market with free movement because your intellectual libertarian views would always win out over the populist working class masses? Look how well your brilliant prediction turned out there!

    Indeed PR is more likely to see a centre right party other than the Tories emerge as it might win a few seats, under FPTP it would just get steamrollered by Farage if the Tories collapsed
    Nope. I said that was what I wanted. I bet £100 on it with RN and sadly lost. But I have never said for certain that was going to be the outcome and indeed wrote articles on PB to that effect.

    Of course I could not have imagined that your party leader at the time would be cowardly enough to run away once he lost the referendum. Perhaps I should have realised he was just another typical self serving Tory with no sense of public duty.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,702
    OllyT said:

    How well would a Whitmer/Ossoff ticket poll against Trump?

    Pretty well. I've got a long standing bet on Whitmer at 21. Might struggle with the black vote unless it is very clear that Harris didn't want to run and wasn't pushed out of the running.
    Perhaps Kamala Harris can be appointed to the Supreme Court after President Biden has used his new powers to have the existing Justices assassinated.
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,556
    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    A friend has just pointed out that Starmer might take Friday evenings off for religious reasons. If so, this might be The Mole's finest work.

    (I don't think this has been pointed out on PB so far, but widely noted on twitter)

    I think it has been pointed out.
    If it is the case (which would be fair enough), it's slightly odd that Starmer has avoided mentioning it rather than majoring on wanting to spend time with his beloved kids (also fair enough). Perhaps it's devilish cunning in that he can now quietly say the Tories are worse than Julius Streicher.
    Perhaps Starmer doesn’t want to mention his “zio” wife and her Jewish faith because he knows he gets millions of votes from borderline anti Semites in the corbynite and Muslim communities

    Indeed, I’m pretty sure that’s part of his reasoning
    But then, you've been pretty sure about so many ludicrous things.
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,069
    edited July 2
    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    A friend has just pointed out that Starmer might take Friday evenings off for religious reasons. If so, this might be The Mole's finest work.

    (I don't think this has been pointed out on PB so far, but widely noted on twitter)

    I think it has been pointed out.
    If it is the case (which would be fair enough), it's slightly odd that Starmer has avoided mentioning it rather than majoring on wanting to spend time with his beloved kids (also fair enough). Perhaps it's devilish cunning in that he can now quietly say the Tories are worse than Julius Streicher.
    Perhaps Starmer doesn’t want to mention his “zio” wife and her Jewish faith because he knows he gets millions of votes from borderline anti Semites in the corbynite and Muslim communities

    Indeed, I’m pretty sure that’s part of his reasoning
    No. He has been trying to protect his wife, children and family life.

    So no wonder you don’t understand the concept and have to find an alternative rabbit hole explanation.
    You’re either wilfully naive or outright dumb. Deliciously, I suspect you are both
    If you had led a morally upright life old man, I might listen to your commentary on Starmer’s family life. But as you haven’t Sean, I won’t.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,483
    Pulpstar said:

    Good Lord, look at what's in the pipeline for VI come the 2030s !

    16/17 yr old

    Males:

    REF: 35%
    LAB: 35%
    LDEM: 11%
    CON: 11%
    GRN: 2%

    Females:

    LAB: 43%
    GRN: 33%
    REF: 12%
    LDEM: 8%
    CON: 0%

    Anecdotally this feels correct to me.

    And that's before the young have experienced a Labour government running out of money ;)
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,655
    Heathener said:

    kamski said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Eabhal said:

    A friend has just pointed out that Starmer might take Friday evenings off for religious reasons. If so, this might be The Mole's finest work.

    (I don't think this has been pointed out on PB so far, but widely noted on twitter)

    Heathener said:

    Sandpit said:

    Christ Biden has had the Trump orange treatment.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c51yx1n15y4o

    You see, you watch that and he's perfectly lucid.

    Only 50 days till the convention.
    Its chalk and cheese compared to the debate. The first 30 minutes of the debate he had no clue where he was, could hardly speak, kept freezing in between answers. If that version of Biden was one of my parents I would be looking at getting them into a care home ASAP.

    He "woke up" a bit second half, then looked back to totally zombified at the end, frozen on the stage.

    I am struggling to buy the argument that it is because he is just old. He spent 7 days off away preparing for the debate so should have been fresh.
    He clearly has good days and bad days, perhaps even good hours and bad hours. It’s genuinely sad to watch, especially the video at the end of the debate, and the subsequent appearance with his wife talking to him like a child while he was just frozen in place.

    He’s clearly not well, and certainly isn’t going to get any better in the next four years. Any loving family should just tap him on the shoulder and say that enough is enough - but political families don’t think like that.
    Well the report came out the other day, 10-4 is really the only hours he normally functions. I mean Starmer taking Friday night off to be with his family is one thing, but leader of the free world who only does office hours of 10-4 on a very good day is something else and will only get worse.
    Good morning.

    One of the awful things about Sunak’s attack on Starmer is the apparent lack of awareness of what Friday night means. He really is hopeless as a politician.

    On which subject, if you’ve never seen Friday Night Dinner then it’s highly recommended. Great comedy.

    I love the fact that Keir is showing the way with something that matters. I’m sick and tired of Sunak’s nasty little attempt to normalise work-until-you-drop ethics in Britain. It may be de rigueur in Silicon Valley start-ups but it does not make for a happier world.


    Ahem, I pointed it out first thing this morning.

    It really is a dreadful moment in the tory campaign. Has considerably pissed me off.
    Incidentally, I also said this probably wasn’t the time and place for lessons in R.E.

    For many Jewish families Friday night is a family / cultural / traditional ‘thing’ rather than a religious one, as it is for more Orthodox adherents. Watch Friday Night Dinner for a great, and very funny, rendition.

    Keir Starmer’s wife is Jewish and as a family they attend a liberal synagogue in North London, and have done for years.

    This attack by Sunak and now Maria Caulfield is the ultimate low point for me. Despicable.
    Sabbath starts on Friday Evening (nightfall) and runs to Saturday evening (nightfall).

    Back to the two/three days argument.

    Friday evening meal is their equivalent of Sunday Lunch.

    Sunak is an ignorant idiot.
    Or worse - there's been a calculation that it will help them in some seats to let people know Starmer's wife is Jewish? Unlikely, I admit, but you'd think that Sunak was aware of the Jewish angle.
    I don’t think it’s deliberate anti-semitism. Rather yet another sign of Sunak’s political ineptitude. He thought he was making a clever, possibly funny, observation about how hard he works vs Keir Starmer but has totally failed to understand people’s lives.
    I am almost beginning to dislike him more than Boris Johnson. At least Bojo connected with people.

    Maria Caulfield doubling down on it, and spreading further lies, is breathtaking though. She’s the minister for mental health and women’s health. But not for much longer.

    I’m very peed off about this. It has annoyed me more than D-Day.
    I am sure Rishi will eb sobbing at fact you don't like him, NOT. Get a grip and get over your crush on insipid Starmer it is unedifying and boke inducing.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,665

    Stocky said:

    Starmer's family must really dread Friday nights.

    The Tories need to be careful. Starmers Family is Jewish and the Sabbath runs from Friday evening to Saturday evening
    The ridiculous element of this is that Sir Keir has made clear several times in past interviews that he reserves Friday evenings for family time because Lady Vic is Jewish and Friday Night Dinner is important to her. It just looks like another unforced error by Sunak: fortunately for him the media are steering clear of the story almost certainly because they want to avoid any accusation of religious prejudice or cultural insensitivity themselves.

    Maria Cauldfield remains an idiot.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,483
    Andy_JS said:

    GIN1138 said:

    My guess:

    Green > Lab

    Ref/DK > Con
    I agree about Ref/DK -> Con. Not sure about Green -> Lab. If that happens Lab would obviously be up as well in the polls, but I don't think they will be.
    We'll soon find out...
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 50,538

    Leon said:

    Can see why the Tories might not like this idea:

    @ElectionMapsUK
    ·
    1m
    Westminster Voting Intention [16-17 Year Olds]:

    LAB: 39%
    RFM: 23%
    GRN: 18%
    LDM: 9%
    CON: 5%

    Via
    @JLPartnersPolls
    .


    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1808115156968145103

    Someone show this to the ph lefties. The young are moving sharply to the hard right
    Who was that roaster telling us young females are going overwhelmingly hard right?

    From that sample.

    Females:

    LAB: 43%
    GRN: 33%
    REF: 12%
    LDEM: 8%
    CON: 0%
    As I have said we are 5-10 years behind Europe on this. We will catch up

    And women will catch up fast as they realise mass immigration makes the streets MUCH less safe for them

    That tragic lament from the young woman in Lyon has now gone absolutely viral on TwiX. Read by many millions
  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,547
    GIN1138 said:

    Can see why the Tories might not like this idea:

    @ElectionMapsUK
    ·
    1m
    Westminster Voting Intention [16-17 Year Olds]:

    LAB: 39%
    RFM: 23%
    GRN: 18%
    LDM: 9%
    CON: 5%

    Via
    @JLPartnersPolls
    .


    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1808115156968145103

    The issue will be getting them to actually vote. It's hard enough to get 18-24 year olds to vote but will be even harder to get 16-17 year olds to vote.
    We could tell them that tomorrow belongs to them.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,665
    Stocky said:

    IanB2 said:

    Stocky said:


    Christopher Hope📝

    @christopherhope
    NEW
    Sir Keir Starmer tells
    @GBNEWS
    he does not rule out recounts in some seats due to undelivered postal ballots.
    Me: "If some postal votes are not counted because they are not delivered by Royal Mail, should there be recounts in some seats on Thursday?"
    Starmer: "We will cross that bridge when we get to it."
    He says the focus "at the moment" is making sure ballots are delivered to the right addresses.
    More at
    @GBNEWS
    on the hour.

    Forgive my ignorance on this: if someone has registered for a postal vote and the ballot isn't delivered can that person still vote in person? I assume not?
    No - if you glance at the list of names when you go to vote, you will see that the postal voters are already crossed off.

    If you made a real fuss you might get given a pink ballot paper, perhaps
    I really dislike the broadening out of postal voting. It should only be for exceptional circumstances. We lose control about who is actually voting.

    If you register for postal voting you take the risk that the ballot doesn't get to you in time, that's the risk - end of.
    I agree. I cannot see why they introduced it – an ordinary vote or a proxy vote should be fine for all but the infirm or those that are away.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,855
    Pulpstar said:

    Good Lord, look at what's in the pipeline for VI come the 2030s !

    16/17 yr old

    Males:

    REF: 35%
    LAB: 35%
    LDEM: 11%
    CON: 11%
    GRN: 2%

    Females:

    LAB: 43%
    GRN: 33%
    REF: 12%
    LDEM: 8%
    CON: 0%

    Anecdotally this feels correct to me.

    That gender split is wild. 31pp gap on support for Greens.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 29,692
    Pulpstar said:

    Good Lord, look at what's in the pipeline for VI come the 2030s !

    16/17 yr old

    Males:

    REF: 35%
    LAB: 35%
    LDEM: 11%
    CON: 11%
    GRN: 2%

    Females:

    LAB: 43%
    GRN: 33%
    REF: 12%
    LDEM: 8%
    CON: 0%

    Anecdotally this feels correct to me.

    Young men projected to vote like young men in other European countries, but not young women. Interesting.
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,069

    Stocky said:

    Starmer's family must really dread Friday nights.

    The Tories need to be careful. Starmers Family is Jewish and the Sabbath runs from Friday evening to Saturday evening
    The ridiculous element of this is that Sir Keir has made clear several times in past interviews that he reserves Friday evenings for family time because Lady Vic is Jewish and Friday Night Dinner is important to her. It just looks like another unforced error by Sunak: fortunately for him the media are steering clear of the story almost certainly because they want to avoid any accusation of religious prejudice or cultural insensitivity themselves.

    Maria Cauldfield remains an idiot.
    Indeed.

    I was almost beginning to hope they don’t get such a big kicking on Thursday but this has been a very, very, poor moment for the Conservatives.

    I’m afraid that they really are a thoroughly disagreeable lot.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,003
    kamski said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Eabhal said:

    A friend has just pointed out that Starmer might take Friday evenings off for religious reasons. If so, this might be The Mole's finest work.

    (I don't think this has been pointed out on PB so far, but widely noted on twitter)

    Heathener said:

    Sandpit said:

    Christ Biden has had the Trump orange treatment.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c51yx1n15y4o

    You see, you watch that and he's perfectly lucid.

    Only 50 days till the convention.
    Its chalk and cheese compared to the debate. The first 30 minutes of the debate he had no clue where he was, could hardly speak, kept freezing in between answers. If that version of Biden was one of my parents I would be looking at getting them into a care home ASAP.

    He "woke up" a bit second half, then looked back to totally zombified at the end, frozen on the stage.

    I am struggling to buy the argument that it is because he is just old. He spent 7 days off away preparing for the debate so should have been fresh.
    He clearly has good days and bad days, perhaps even good hours and bad hours. It’s genuinely sad to watch, especially the video at the end of the debate, and the subsequent appearance with his wife talking to him like a child while he was just frozen in place.

    He’s clearly not well, and certainly isn’t going to get any better in the next four years. Any loving family should just tap him on the shoulder and say that enough is enough - but political families don’t think like that.
    Well the report came out the other day, 10-4 is really the only hours he normally functions. I mean Starmer taking Friday night off to be with his family is one thing, but leader of the free world who only does office hours of 10-4 on a very good day is something else and will only get worse.
    Good morning.

    One of the awful things about Sunak’s attack on Starmer is the apparent lack of awareness of what Friday night means. He really is hopeless as a politician.

    On which subject, if you’ve never seen Friday Night Dinner then it’s highly recommended. Great comedy.

    I love the fact that Keir is showing the way with something that matters. I’m sick and tired of Sunak’s nasty little attempt to normalise work-until-you-drop ethics in Britain. It may be de rigueur in Silicon Valley start-ups but it does not make for a happier world.


    Ahem, I pointed it out first thing this morning.

    It really is a dreadful moment in the tory campaign. Has considerably pissed me off.
    Incidentally, I also said this probably wasn’t the time and place for lessons in R.E.

    For many Jewish families Friday night is a family / cultural / traditional ‘thing’ rather than a religious one, as it is for more Orthodox adherents. Watch Friday Night Dinner for a great, and very funny, rendition.

    Keir Starmer’s wife is Jewish and as a family they attend a liberal synagogue in North London, and have done for years.

    This attack by Sunak and now Maria Caulfield is the ultimate low point for me. Despicable.
    Sabbath starts on Friday Evening (nightfall) and runs to Saturday evening (nightfall).

    Back to the two/three days argument.

    Friday evening meal is their equivalent of Sunday Lunch.

    Sunak is an ignorant idiot.
    Or worse - there's been a calculation that it will help them in some seats to let people know Starmer's wife is Jewish? Unlikely, I admit, but you'd think that Sunak was aware of the Jewish angle.
    That would be my fear as well; desperate tactics in what, for them, must be desperate times.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 50,538
    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    A friend has just pointed out that Starmer might take Friday evenings off for religious reasons. If so, this might be The Mole's finest work.

    (I don't think this has been pointed out on PB so far, but widely noted on twitter)

    I think it has been pointed out.
    If it is the case (which would be fair enough), it's slightly odd that Starmer has avoided mentioning it rather than majoring on wanting to spend time with his beloved kids (also fair enough). Perhaps it's devilish cunning in that he can now quietly say the Tories are worse than Julius Streicher.
    Perhaps Starmer doesn’t want to mention his “zio” wife and her Jewish faith because he knows he gets millions of votes from borderline anti Semites in the corbynite and Muslim communities

    Indeed, I’m pretty sure that’s part of his reasoning
    No. He has been trying to protect his wife, children and family life.

    So no wonder you don’t understand the concept and have to find an alternative rabbit hole explanation.
    You’re either wilfully naive or outright dumb. Deliciously, I suspect you are both
    If you had led a morally upright life old man, I might listen to your commentary on Starmer’s family life. But as you haven’t Sean, I won’t.
    I’m not Sean. Go back to your anarchist day trips on the charabancs of salcombe, you farcical old crone
  • Options
    TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 795

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Eabhal said:

    A friend has just pointed out that Starmer might take Friday evenings off for religious reasons. If so, this might be The Mole's finest work.

    (I don't think this has been pointed out on PB so far, but widely noted on twitter)

    Heathener said:

    Sandpit said:

    Christ Biden has had the Trump orange treatment.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c51yx1n15y4o

    You see, you watch that and he's perfectly lucid.

    Only 50 days till the convention.
    Its chalk and cheese compared to the debate. The first 30 minutes of the debate he had no clue where he was, could hardly speak, kept freezing in between answers. If that version of Biden was one of my parents I would be looking at getting them into a care home ASAP.

    He "woke up" a bit second half, then looked back to totally zombified at the end, frozen on the stage.

    I am struggling to buy the argument that it is because he is just old. He spent 7 days off away preparing for the debate so should have been fresh.
    He clearly has good days and bad days, perhaps even good hours and bad hours. It’s genuinely sad to watch, especially the video at the end of the debate, and the subsequent appearance with his wife talking to him like a child while he was just frozen in place.

    He’s clearly not well, and certainly isn’t going to get any better in the next four years. Any loving family should just tap him on the shoulder and say that enough is enough - but political families don’t think like that.
    Well the report came out the other day, 10-4 is really the only hours he normally functions. I mean Starmer taking Friday night off to be with his family is one thing, but leader of the free world who only does office hours of 10-4 on a very good day is something else and will only get worse.
    Good morning.

    One of the awful things about Sunak’s attack on Starmer is the apparent lack of awareness of what Friday night means. He really is hopeless as a politician.

    On which subject, if you’ve never seen Friday Night Dinner then it’s highly recommended. Great comedy.

    I love the fact that Keir is showing the way with something that matters. I’m sick and tired of Sunak’s nasty little attempt to normalise work-until-you-drop ethics in Britain. It may be de rigueur in Silicon Valley start-ups but it does not make for a happier world.


    Ahem, I pointed it out first thing this morning.

    It really is a dreadful moment in the tory campaign. Has considerably pissed me off.
    Incidentally, I also said this probably wasn’t the time and place for lessons in R.E.

    For many Jewish families Friday night is a family / cultural / traditional ‘thing’ rather than a religious one, as it is for more Orthodox adherents. Watch Friday Night Dinner for a great, and very funny, rendition.

    Keir Starmer’s wife is Jewish and as a family they attend a liberal synagogue in North London, and have done for years.

    This attack by Sunak and now Maria Caulfield is the ultimate low point for me. Despicable.
    Sabbath starts on Friday Evening (nightfall) and runs to Saturday evening (nightfall).

    Back to the two/three days argument.

    Friday evening meal is their equivalent of Sunday Lunch.

    Sunak is an ignorant idiot.
    I'd be careful with this line of argument. It is a truism; it is like saying Catholics eat fish on Fridays; many do, and it might have started for religious reasons, but not for centuries. It is not true of all Jews and probably not most. In any case, anyone very religious would not have married out in the first place.
    I foresee a "secret convert" truther campaign
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 20,009
    boulay said:

    AlsoLei said:

    John Mann, the govt's antisemitism advisor says:

    “The attack on Keir Starmer for asserting his right to family time on a Friday night, as he has done for many, many years, is so dangerous.

    “So insidious from those aware of why he chooses to be with his family specifically on Friday evenings.”

    He told the PA news agency: “It’s a very strange thing to attack over. I’m the independent adviser to the Prime Minister and my advice would be this is not an area to stray into.”

    He pointed out that Friday nights had a wider cultural significance within the Jewish community, likening it to Sundays in Christian communities.

    “There’s a reason Parliament does not sit on Sundays.”

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/starmer-hits-out-at-ridiculous-tory-criticism-over-friday-night-schedule/ar-BB1pgM2r

    Sunak needs to shut this attack down or he risks it blowing up in his face.

    So Starmer makes public that he will try to carry on with the habit he has had for some years of making sure that he does not work on Friday nights so he can spend time with his wife and children (no mention that he does not work Friday nights for religious or cultural reasons but because he’s Mr Family).

    Why does he make this public? I’m guessing he thought it showed him as a family man with a good work life balance?

    People start attacking him saying he shouldn’t do this as he’s going to be PM and the country doesn’t stop at 6 on a Friday.

    Now it’s suddenly a matter of religious observance and so it’s awful to criticise him for doing it.

    So it’s not actually about him keeping a work/life balance but about him observing a cultural norm reflecting the region of his wife and children. So an obligation not a choice.

    Why didn’t he just mention the religious aspect of this in the first place? I might be overly cynical but I’m wondering if perhaps he thought he would get cred points with voters without losing cred points with another section of voters.

    He tried to play a game, got kicked for it and now saying you can’t kick him because it’s anti-Semitic.

    it isn't suddenly anything ... the Jewish observance is public and known for years.

    I think that a strong commitment to maintaining family life as a sane foundation to keep politics in context is great.

    I expect most of our PMs have done the samr in some way.

    I think the takeaway is the measure of Tory poor judgement and desperation. Just the latest pratfall.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,920
    Sir John Curtice projects 370 Labour seats, 191 Tory seats and 34 LD and 34 SNP seats, 2 Plaid, 1 Green and 0 Reform on universal national swing based on analysis of 8 recent polls.

    However on an MRP change the results look significantly different, with Curtice saying Labour could then get 447 seats, the Tories 98, the LDs 53, the SNP 21, Reform 8 and the Greens and Plaid 2 each
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cl7y2xj728do
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,003
    Leon said:

    Can see why the Tories might not like this idea:

    @ElectionMapsUK
    ·
    1m
    Westminster Voting Intention [16-17 Year Olds]:

    LAB: 39%
    RFM: 23%
    GRN: 18%
    LDM: 9%
    CON: 5%

    Via
    @JLPartnersPolls
    .


    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1808115156968145103

    Someone show this to the ph lefties. The young are moving sharply to the hard right
    Or they don’t care and it’s just a protest, or do care but don’t like the establishment parties, so it’s just a protest.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,665
    boulay said:

    AlsoLei said:

    John Mann, the govt's antisemitism advisor says:

    “The attack on Keir Starmer for asserting his right to family time on a Friday night, as he has done for many, many years, is so dangerous.

    “So insidious from those aware of why he chooses to be with his family specifically on Friday evenings.”

    He told the PA news agency: “It’s a very strange thing to attack over. I’m the independent adviser to the Prime Minister and my advice would be this is not an area to stray into.”

    He pointed out that Friday nights had a wider cultural significance within the Jewish community, likening it to Sundays in Christian communities.

    “There’s a reason Parliament does not sit on Sundays.”

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/starmer-hits-out-at-ridiculous-tory-criticism-over-friday-night-schedule/ar-BB1pgM2r

    Sunak needs to shut this attack down or he risks it blowing up in his face.

    So Starmer makes public that he will try to carry on with the habit he has had for some years of making sure that he does not work on Friday nights so he can spend time with his wife and children (no mention that he does not work Friday nights for religious or cultural reasons but because he’s Mr Family).

    Why does he make this public? I’m guessing he thought it showed him as a family man with a good work life balance?

    People start attacking him saying he shouldn’t do this as he’s going to be PM and the country doesn’t stop at 6 on a Friday.

    Now it’s suddenly a matter of religious observance and so it’s awful to criticise him for doing it.

    So it’s not actually about him keeping a work/life balance but about him observing a cultural norm reflecting the region of his wife and children. So an obligation not a choice.

    Why didn’t he just mention the religious aspect of this in the first place? I might be overly cynical but I’m wondering if perhaps he thought he would get cred points with voters without losing cred points with another section of voters.

    He tried to play a game, got kicked for it and now saying you can’t kick him because it’s anti-Semitic.

    WRONG. DEAD WRONG.

    He has spoken about the importance of Friday night dinner to his wife (who is Jewish) umpteen times in the past. This is trivially googleable,
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,629
    GIN1138 said:

    Can see why the Tories might not like this idea:

    @ElectionMapsUK
    ·
    1m
    Westminster Voting Intention [16-17 Year Olds]:

    LAB: 39%
    RFM: 23%
    GRN: 18%
    LDM: 9%
    CON: 5%

    Via
    @JLPartnersPolls
    .


    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1808115156968145103

    The issue will be getting them to actually vote. It's hard enough to get 18-24 year olds to vote but will be even harder to get 16-17 year olds to vote.
    I'm not so sure. I think it may encourage more engagement among the young.

    Incidentally, this came up in discussion at the gym today - it was Tory Central this morning: quite a lot of dislike for this idea (and indeed 18 year olds are too young to know how to vote for the right team apparently).

    I was informed that we are in for 10 years of utter chaos under Labour apparently... before being told at length that the country is in an utter mess and only the Tories can fix it.
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,069
    edited July 2
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Can see why the Tories might not like this idea:

    @ElectionMapsUK
    ·
    1m
    Westminster Voting Intention [16-17 Year Olds]:

    LAB: 39%
    RFM: 23%
    GRN: 18%
    LDM: 9%
    CON: 5%

    Via
    @JLPartnersPolls
    .


    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1808115156968145103

    Someone show this to the ph lefties. The young are moving sharply to the hard right
    Who was that roaster telling us young females are going overwhelmingly hard right?

    From that sample.

    Females:

    LAB: 43%
    GRN: 33%
    REF: 12%
    LDEM: 8%
    CON: 0%
    As I have said we are 5-10 years behind Europe on this. We will catch up

    And women will catch up fast as they realise mass immigration makes the streets MUCH less safe for them
    1. No. We are 10 years ahead of Europe on this. We did Brexit in 2016/2019. That was our moment of right-wing lurch.

    2. You lecturing any of us on here, especially women, on our safety when you wrote a book all about your sexual predation of women, including of dubious age, marrying a teenage girl when you were in your 50’s, and then leaving your young girls to be brought up by their mother is typical of your reprobate character.

    Steer clear of dog whistle personal politics or you’ll get it back with both barrels old man.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,483
    The Conservatives have just sent a bizarre letter to me from me from 2044...

    Anyone else had this?
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 50,538
    Chris said:

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    A friend has just pointed out that Starmer might take Friday evenings off for religious reasons. If so, this might be The Mole's finest work.

    (I don't think this has been pointed out on PB so far, but widely noted on twitter)

    I think it has been pointed out.
    If it is the case (which would be fair enough), it's slightly odd that Starmer has avoided mentioning it rather than majoring on wanting to spend time with his beloved kids (also fair enough). Perhaps it's devilish cunning in that he can now quietly say the Tories are worse than Julius Streicher.
    Perhaps Starmer doesn’t want to mention his “zio” wife and her Jewish faith because he knows he gets millions of votes from borderline anti Semites in the corbynite and Muslim communities

    Indeed, I’m pretty sure that’s part of his reasoning
    But then, you've been pretty sure about so many ludicrous things.
    And nearly always right, and quite often against the pathetic PB consensus

    Honestly without me here as your wise intellectual shepherd the rest of you would walk over a cliff while bleating “it’s just a stammer, covid is nothing, it came from the market, Ukraine is winning easily” etc etc etc
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,112

    Nigelb said:

    Andy_JS said:

    What I can't understand is why the Democrats seem so convinced that any candidate other than Joe Biden would lose to Donald Trump, and therefore have to stick with Biden.

    "They" are not; there's quite obviously (and often publicly) a debate going on between those who want to stick with Biden and those who don't.
    Relatedly, the person whose decision matters here isn't The Democrats, it's Joe Biden.
    More opinion pieces today in NY Times saying he has to step down.

    Do a LBJ as one piece by a historian argues.
    Anyone making that comparison by means of persuasion is a complete fool.

    For a historian to be doing so is Starkey levels of idiocy.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,920
    GIN1138 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Good Lord, look at what's in the pipeline for VI come the 2030s !

    16/17 yr old

    Males:

    REF: 35%
    LAB: 35%
    LDEM: 11%
    CON: 11%
    GRN: 2%

    Females:

    LAB: 43%
    GRN: 33%
    REF: 12%
    LDEM: 8%
    CON: 0%

    Anecdotally this feels correct to me.

    And that's before the young have experienced a Labour government running out of money ;)
    I would expect the Tories do be back up a bit with the young then, the Tories poll best with the young under unpopular Labour governments eg the Tories highest voteshare amongst under 35s in the last 50 years was in 1979 and 2010
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,629
    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    A friend has just pointed out that Starmer might take Friday evenings off for religious reasons. If so, this might be The Mole's finest work.

    (I don't think this has been pointed out on PB so far, but widely noted on twitter)

    I think it has been pointed out.
    If it is the case (which would be fair enough), it's slightly odd that Starmer has avoided mentioning it rather than majoring on wanting to spend time with his beloved kids (also fair enough). Perhaps it's devilish cunning in that he can now quietly say the Tories are worse than Julius Streicher.
    Perhaps Starmer doesn’t want to mention his “zio” wife and her Jewish faith because he knows he gets millions of votes from borderline anti Semites in the corbynite and Muslim communities

    Indeed, I’m pretty sure that’s part of his reasoning
    No. He has been trying to protect his wife, children and family life.

    So no wonder you don’t understand the concept and have to find an alternative rabbit hole explanation.
    You’re either wilfully naive or outright dumb. Deliciously, I suspect you are both
    If you had led a morally upright life old man, I might listen to your commentary on Starmer’s family life. But as you haven’t Sean, I won’t.
    I’m not Sean. Go back to your anarchist day trips on the charabancs of salcombe, you farcical old crone
    Do you need a fire extinguisher for those pants btw?
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    GIN1138 said:

    The Conservatives have just sent a bizarre letter to me from me from 2044...

    Anyone else had this?

    I had one from 2047. They say ignore that last one, we were going through some shit, man
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,483
    HYUFD said:

    Sir John Curtice projects 370 Labour seats, 191 Tory seats and 34 LD and 34 SNP seats, 2 Plaid, 1 Green and 0 Reform on universal national swing based on analysis of 8 recent polls.

    However on an MRP change the results look significantly different, with Curtice saying Labour could then get 447 seats, the Tories 98, the LDs 53, the SNP 21, Reform 8 and the Greens and Plaid 2 each
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cl7y2xj728do

    Sir John Vs MRP ?
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,665
    biggles said:

    Politics is a funny old game.

    The implication that Sunak was being antisemitic rather than just making a silly point is obvious nonsense. However the Tories play this game on Labour politicians all the time so can’t complain any more than Labour can the next time this sort of thing is done to them.

    No way that Rishi was being antisemitic. The guy is many things but a racist he is not.

    However, it is yet another demonstration of the tin-ear of the Tories and their infantile cackhandedness. He didn't need to make any comment at all, indeed he would have been wise to double down on his rather nice previous comment about Sir Keir that he is a good family man.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 116,563
    GIN1138 said:

    The Conservatives have just sent a bizarre letter to me from me from 2044...

    Anyone else had this?

    Yes.
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,556
    So. An attack on Sunak from the Jewish Chronicle two days before the election.

    This campaign is remarkable for the amount of negative campaigning that has backfired on the Tories.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,920

    Nigelb said:

    Andy_JS said:

    What I can't understand is why the Democrats seem so convinced that any candidate other than Joe Biden would lose to Donald Trump, and therefore have to stick with Biden.

    "They" are not; there's quite obviously (and often publicly) a debate going on between those who want to stick with Biden and those who don't.
    Relatedly, the person whose decision matters here isn't The Democrats, it's Joe Biden.
    More opinion pieces today in NY Times saying he has to step down.

    Do a LBJ as one piece by a historian argues.
    That would be the same LBJ who stepped down in 1968 only to see his VP Humphrey become Democratic nominee and lose the November general election to Nixon?
  • Options
    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,446
    Heathener said:

    kamski said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Eabhal said:

    A friend has just pointed out that Starmer might take Friday evenings off for religious reasons. If so, this might be The Mole's finest work.

    (I don't think this has been pointed out on PB so far, but widely noted on twitter)

    Heathener said:

    Sandpit said:

    Christ Biden has had the Trump orange treatment.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c51yx1n15y4o

    You see, you watch that and he's perfectly lucid.

    Only 50 days till the convention.
    Its chalk and cheese compared to the debate. The first 30 minutes of the debate he had no clue where he was, could hardly speak, kept freezing in between answers. If that version of Biden was one of my parents I would be looking at getting them into a care home ASAP.

    He "woke up" a bit second half, then looked back to totally zombified at the end, frozen on the stage.

    I am struggling to buy the argument that it is because he is just old. He spent 7 days off away preparing for the debate so should have been fresh.
    He clearly has good days and bad days, perhaps even good hours and bad hours. It’s genuinely sad to watch, especially the video at the end of the debate, and the subsequent appearance with his wife talking to him like a child while he was just frozen in place.

    He’s clearly not well, and certainly isn’t going to get any better in the next four years. Any loving family should just tap him on the shoulder and say that enough is enough - but political families don’t think like that.
    Well the report came out the other day, 10-4 is really the only hours he normally functions. I mean Starmer taking Friday night off to be with his family is one thing, but leader of the free world who only does office hours of 10-4 on a very good day is something else and will only get worse.
    Good morning.

    One of the awful things about Sunak’s attack on Starmer is the apparent lack of awareness of what Friday night means. He really is hopeless as a politician.

    On which subject, if you’ve never seen Friday Night Dinner then it’s highly recommended. Great comedy.

    I love the fact that Keir is showing the way with something that matters. I’m sick and tired of Sunak’s nasty little attempt to normalise work-until-you-drop ethics in Britain. It may be de rigueur in Silicon Valley start-ups but it does not make for a happier world.


    Ahem, I pointed it out first thing this morning.

    It really is a dreadful moment in the tory campaign. Has considerably pissed me off.
    Incidentally, I also said this probably wasn’t the time and place for lessons in R.E.

    For many Jewish families Friday night is a family / cultural / traditional ‘thing’ rather than a religious one, as it is for more Orthodox adherents. Watch Friday Night Dinner for a great, and very funny, rendition.

    Keir Starmer’s wife is Jewish and as a family they attend a liberal synagogue in North London, and have done for years.

    This attack by Sunak and now Maria Caulfield is the ultimate low point for me. Despicable.
    Sabbath starts on Friday Evening (nightfall) and runs to Saturday evening (nightfall).

    Back to the two/three days argument.

    Friday evening meal is their equivalent of Sunday Lunch.

    Sunak is an ignorant idiot.
    Or worse - there's been a calculation that it will help them in some seats to let people know Starmer's wife is Jewish? Unlikely, I admit, but you'd think that Sunak was aware of the Jewish angle.
    I don’t think it’s deliberate anti-semitism. Rather yet another sign of Sunak’s political ineptitude. He thought he was making a clever, possibly funny, observation about how hard he works vs Keir Starmer but has totally failed to understand people’s lives.
    I am almost beginning to dislike him more than Boris Johnson. At least Bojo connected with people.

    Maria Caulfield doubling down on it, and spreading further lies, is breathtaking though. She’s the minister for mental health and women’s health. But not for much longer.

    I’m very peed off about this. It has annoyed me more than D-Day.
    So, Sunak thinks it’s ok to leave D Day early, but not to leave work early on Friday. Have we ever had a PM so out of touch?
  • Options
    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,069
    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    A friend has just pointed out that Starmer might take Friday evenings off for religious reasons. If so, this might be The Mole's finest work.

    (I don't think this has been pointed out on PB so far, but widely noted on twitter)

    I think it has been pointed out.
    If it is the case (which would be fair enough), it's slightly odd that Starmer has avoided mentioning it rather than majoring on wanting to spend time with his beloved kids (also fair enough). Perhaps it's devilish cunning in that he can now quietly say the Tories are worse than Julius Streicher.
    Perhaps Starmer doesn’t want to mention his “zio” wife and her Jewish faith because he knows he gets millions of votes from borderline anti Semites in the corbynite and Muslim communities

    Indeed, I’m pretty sure that’s part of his reasoning
    No. He has been trying to protect his wife, children and family life.

    So no wonder you don’t understand the concept and have to find an alternative rabbit hole explanation.
    You’re either wilfully naive or outright dumb. Deliciously, I suspect you are both
    If you had led a morally upright life old man, I might listen to your commentary on Starmer’s family life. But as you haven’t Sean, I won’t.
    I’m not Sean.
    Lol
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,629
    GIN1138 said:

    The Conservatives have just sent a bizarre letter to me from me from 2044...

    Anyone else had this?

    That's totally ridiculous - no way will the Conservatives be still going in 2044; 2030 will be a stretch.
  • Options
    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,327
    GIN1138 said:

    Can see why the Tories might not like this idea:

    @ElectionMapsUK
    ·
    1m
    Westminster Voting Intention [16-17 Year Olds]:

    LAB: 39%
    RFM: 23%
    GRN: 18%
    LDM: 9%
    CON: 5%

    Via
    @JLPartnersPolls
    .


    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1808115156968145103

    The issue will be getting them to actually vote. It's hard enough to get 18-24 year olds to vote but will be even harder to get 16-17 year olds to vote.
    Might actually be higher turnout in that group, since many will go to the polling station with their parents.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 50,538
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    Can see why the Tories might not like this idea:

    @ElectionMapsUK
    ·
    1m
    Westminster Voting Intention [16-17 Year Olds]:

    LAB: 39%
    RFM: 23%
    GRN: 18%
    LDM: 9%
    CON: 5%

    Via
    @JLPartnersPolls
    .


    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1808115156968145103

    Someone show this to the ph lefties. The young are moving sharply to the hard right
    Or they don’t care and it’s just a protest, or do care but don’t like the establishment parties, so it’s just a protest.
    Check the RN votes. The young French abandoned the centre and a fair few went far left (increasing
    an already present lefty tendency to vote far left). But the truly striking surge came from young French people switching to Le Pen. She got some amazing figures
  • Options
    Tim_in_RuislipTim_in_Ruislip Posts: 130

    Leon said:

    Can see why the Tories might not like this idea:

    @ElectionMapsUK
    ·
    1m
    Westminster Voting Intention [16-17 Year Olds]:

    LAB: 39%
    RFM: 23%
    GRN: 18%
    LDM: 9%
    CON: 5%

    Via
    @JLPartnersPolls
    .


    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1808115156968145103

    Someone show this to the ph lefties. The young are moving sharply to the hard right
    Who was that roaster telling us young females are going overwhelmingly hard right?

    From that sample.

    Females:

    LAB: 43%
    GRN: 33%
    REF: 12%
    LDEM: 8%
    CON: 0%
    Is that a proper sample? ie >=1000?

    If so, truly remarkable they can't find a single 16/17 y/o girl aged 16/17 out of ~500, who would vote tory.

    Astonishing.
  • Options
    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,446
    Pulpstar said:

    Good Lord, look at what's in the pipeline for VI come the 2030s !

    16/17 yr old

    Males:

    REF: 35%
    LAB: 35%
    LDEM: 11%
    CON: 11%
    GRN: 2%

    Females:

    LAB: 43%
    GRN: 33%
    REF: 12%
    LDEM: 8%
    CON: 0%

    Anecdotally this feels correct to me.

    Tories, enjoy your 100 seats. You’ll be getting even fewer in 10 years time.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 116,563

    NEW THREAD

  • Options
    TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 795

    Stocky said:

    IanB2 said:

    Stocky said:


    Christopher Hope📝

    @christopherhope
    NEW
    Sir Keir Starmer tells
    @GBNEWS
    he does not rule out recounts in some seats due to undelivered postal ballots.
    Me: "If some postal votes are not counted because they are not delivered by Royal Mail, should there be recounts in some seats on Thursday?"
    Starmer: "We will cross that bridge when we get to it."
    He says the focus "at the moment" is making sure ballots are delivered to the right addresses.
    More at
    @GBNEWS
    on the hour.

    Forgive my ignorance on this: if someone has registered for a postal vote and the ballot isn't delivered can that person still vote in person? I assume not?
    No - if you glance at the list of names when you go to vote, you will see that the postal voters are already crossed off.

    If you made a real fuss you might get given a pink ballot paper, perhaps
    I really dislike the broadening out of postal voting. It should only be for exceptional circumstances. We lose control about who is actually voting.

    If you register for postal voting you take the risk that the ballot doesn't get to you in time, that's the risk - end of.
    I agree. I cannot see why they introduced it – an ordinary vote or a proxy vote should be fine for all but the infirm or those that are away.
    43% of votes in NE England are postal according to someone on WATO (Curtice I think). It was that creep Blair who introduced it ostensibly to make democracy more accessible, actually because it makes pro labour fraud easier. I suppose it means that the can't be arsed feel more heard.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,702

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Eabhal said:

    A friend has just pointed out that Starmer might take Friday evenings off for religious reasons. If so, this might be The Mole's finest work.

    (I don't think this has been pointed out on PB so far, but widely noted on twitter)

    Heathener said:

    Sandpit said:

    Christ Biden has had the Trump orange treatment.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c51yx1n15y4o

    You see, you watch that and he's perfectly lucid.

    Only 50 days till the convention.
    Its chalk and cheese compared to the debate. The first 30 minutes of the debate he had no clue where he was, could hardly speak, kept freezing in between answers. If that version of Biden was one of my parents I would be looking at getting them into a care home ASAP.

    He "woke up" a bit second half, then looked back to totally zombified at the end, frozen on the stage.

    I am struggling to buy the argument that it is because he is just old. He spent 7 days off away preparing for the debate so should have been fresh.
    He clearly has good days and bad days, perhaps even good hours and bad hours. It’s genuinely sad to watch, especially the video at the end of the debate, and the subsequent appearance with his wife talking to him like a child while he was just frozen in place.

    He’s clearly not well, and certainly isn’t going to get any better in the next four years. Any loving family should just tap him on the shoulder and say that enough is enough - but political families don’t think like that.
    Well the report came out the other day, 10-4 is really the only hours he normally functions. I mean Starmer taking Friday night off to be with his family is one thing, but leader of the free world who only does office hours of 10-4 on a very good day is something else and will only get worse.
    Good morning.

    One of the awful things about Sunak’s attack on Starmer is the apparent lack of awareness of what Friday night means. He really is hopeless as a politician.

    On which subject, if you’ve never seen Friday Night Dinner then it’s highly recommended. Great comedy.

    I love the fact that Keir is showing the way with something that matters. I’m sick and tired of Sunak’s nasty little attempt to normalise work-until-you-drop ethics in Britain. It may be de rigueur in Silicon Valley start-ups but it does not make for a happier world.


    Ahem, I pointed it out first thing this morning.

    It really is a dreadful moment in the tory campaign. Has considerably pissed me off.
    Incidentally, I also said this probably wasn’t the time and place for lessons in R.E.

    For many Jewish families Friday night is a family / cultural / traditional ‘thing’ rather than a religious one, as it is for more Orthodox adherents. Watch Friday Night Dinner for a great, and very funny, rendition.

    Keir Starmer’s wife is Jewish and as a family they attend a liberal synagogue in North London, and have done for years.

    This attack by Sunak and now Maria Caulfield is the ultimate low point for me. Despicable.
    Sabbath starts on Friday Evening (nightfall) and runs to Saturday evening (nightfall).

    Back to the two/three days argument.

    Friday evening meal is their equivalent of Sunday Lunch.

    Sunak is an ignorant idiot.
    I'd be careful with this line of argument. It is a truism; it is like saying Catholics eat fish on Fridays; many do, and it might have started for religious reasons, but not for centuries. It is not true of all Jews and probably not most. In any case, anyone very religious would not have married out in the first place.
    I foresee a "secret convert" truther campaign
    Arguably they were right about Tony Blair!
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,483

    REMOVAL VANS HAVE ARRIVED FOR THIS THREAD

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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,644
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sir John Curtice projects 370 Labour seats, 191 Tory seats and 34 LD and 34 SNP seats, 2 Plaid, 1 Green and 0 Reform on universal national swing based on analysis of 8 recent polls.

    However on an MRP change the results look significantly different, with Curtice saying Labour could then get 447 seats, the Tories 98, the LDs 53, the SNP 21, Reform 8 and the Greens and Plaid 2 each
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cl7y2xj728do

    Sir John Vs MRP ?
    No I think these are both Sir John. He is just hghlighting the difference between MRP and UNS
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,003

    OllyT said:

    How well would a Whitmer/Ossoff ticket poll against Trump?

    Pretty well. I've got a long standing bet on Whitmer at 21. Might struggle with the black vote unless it is very clear that Harris didn't want to run and wasn't pushed out of the running.
    Perhaps Kamala Harris can be appointed to the Supreme Court after President Biden has used his new powers to have the existing Justices assassinated.
    There’s been talk before about enlarging the size of the court so the current President can fill the new positions. But that would be the nuclear option and I doubt they are up for it even if it could be done.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,112
    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    A friend has just pointed out that Starmer might take Friday evenings off for religious reasons. If so, this might be The Mole's finest work.

    (I don't think this has been pointed out on PB so far, but widely noted on twitter)

    I think it has been pointed out.
    If it is the case (which would be fair enough), it's slightly odd that Starmer has avoided mentioning it rather than majoring on wanting to spend time with his beloved kids (also fair enough). Perhaps it's devilish cunning in that he can now quietly say the Tories are worse than Julius Streicher.
    Perhaps Starmer doesn’t want to mention his “zio” wife and her Jewish faith because he knows he gets millions of votes from borderline anti Semites in the corbynite and Muslim communities

    Indeed, I’m pretty sure that’s part of his reasoning
    No. He has been trying to protect his wife, children and family life.

    So no wonder you don’t understand the concept and have to find an alternative rabbit hole explanation.
    You’re either wilfully naive or outright dumb. Deliciously, I suspect you are both
    As you're both arguing over a false premise - Starmer is fairly open about his wife being Jewish - I'd say the same of you.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,644
    GIN1138 said:

    The Conservatives have just sent a bizarre letter to me from me from 2044...

    Anyone else had this?

    Mine was from 1844. I think at some point they must have left JRM in charge of the letter department. :)
This discussion has been closed.