What is clear to me is that […]. Starmers appeal is an ocean wide and as deep as a puddle. I think there will be a rapid breakthrough on the far right, likely not through the reform party, but it will come in the next few years.
Really you are conflating a whole variety of circumstances, nuances, geopolitics, parties and allegiances into your own predetermined political belief.
Instead of the obvious: the President has dementia.
p.s. and the terrible mistake of thinking the US and the UK are politically the same, let alone similar
Reflecting on the state of the Tory party it would perhaps be best for the country if they were not the official opposition. They will be too busy fighting each other to provide much challenge and resistance to problems created by a massive Labour majority.
Frankly, any likely scenario in which the Tories are ground down into third spot also implies a Liberal Democrat group so small that it won't be able to function fully as a Commons Opposition in the conventional sense. Procedural changes with respect to issues such as the composition of select committees would likely be needed, and a lot of shadow ministerial positions would need to be filled from the Lords.
Still, this is what you get from a perverse electoral system which could quite plausibly deliver the biggest Labour majority in history with a vote smaller, in both absolute numbers and share, than that received by Jeremy Corbyn when he lost in 2017.
I have never been a fan of FPTP, it is a stupid system and needs to go. But actually I don’t agree that Davey and the Lib Dem’s would not be an effective opposition. They have constantly demonstrated an ability to be effective campaigners with limited resources. I think they would certainly pick their fights. But I think we would see less confrontational but more effective national governance. Still I expect the Tories to hang on to enough seats to hang on to the role. That will lead to 5 years of chaos as the Tories fight each other while trying to act as an effective opposition. I suspect they will do neither thing very well.
It’s not a stupid system. It does what it aims to do very well.
PR supporters (generalising) that that parliament should represent the political composition of the voters on a national basis.
FPTP supporters think that local communities should elect a representative to stick up for their area
It’s logical to have FPTP for a constituency based approach
To which I will add that
FPTP does tend to produce a decisive, and usually stable, Government. Coalitions have a pretty chequered history around the world.
FPTP also means that minority parties are not disproportionately powerful, especially in coalition through the tail wagging the dog. Personally I think that’s a price worth paying for keeping extremism at bay, although I’m open to being persuaded on this topic.
Of the last 4 elections, half produced hung Parliaments.
Reflecting on the state of the Tory party it would perhaps be best for the country if they were not the official opposition. They will be too busy fighting each other to provide much challenge and resistance to problems created by a massive Labour majority.
Frankly, any likely scenario in which the Tories are ground down into third spot also implies a Liberal Democrat group so small that it won't be able to function fully as a Commons Opposition in the conventional sense. Procedural changes with respect to issues such as the composition of select committees would likely be needed, and a lot of shadow ministerial positions would need to be filled from the Lords.
Still, this is what you get from a perverse electoral system which could quite plausibly deliver the biggest Labour majority in history with a vote smaller, in both absolute numbers and share, than that received by Jeremy Corbyn when he lost in 2017.
I have never been a fan of FPTP, it is a stupid system and needs to go. But actually I don’t agree that Davey and the Lib Dem’s would not be an effective opposition. They have constantly demonstrated an ability to be effective campaigners with limited resources. I think they would certainly pick their fights. But I think we would see less confrontational but more effective national governance. Still I expect the Tories to hang on to enough seats to hang on to the role. That will lead to 5 years of chaos as the Tories fight each other while trying to act as an effective opposition. I suspect they will do neither thing very well.
It’s not a stupid system. It does what it aims to do very well.
PR supporters (generalising) that that parliament should represent the political composition of the voters on a national basis.
FPTP supporters think that local communities should elect a representative to stick up for their area
It’s logical to have FPTP for a constituency based approach
To which I will add that
FPTP does tend to produce a decisive, and usually stable, Government. Coalitions have a pretty chequered history around the world.
FPTP also means that minority parties are not disproportionately powerful, especially in coalition through the tail wagging the dog. Personally I think that’s a price worth paying for keeping extremism at bay, although I’m open to being persuaded on this topic.
Of the last 4 elections, half produced hung Parliaments.
On topic. We have to see if there is a vacancy. If Sunak wins a 1992 style comeback there will be no vacancy and your money will be tied up a very long time.
Even in the event as unlikely as winning a Tory majority, Sunak is toast.
Biden 1.64-1.65 Newsom 5.8-5.9 M Obama 16.5-19 H Clinton 18.5-29 Harris 16.5-19 Whitmer 32-80
Interesting how Michelle Obama and Kamala Harris prices, including the spread on the prices, are currently identical. If Biden is persuaded to step aside will the Dems quickly crown one of the above in a backroom deal?
It says something when the top five in the betting are all unelectable.
Reflecting on the state of the Tory party it would perhaps be best for the country if they were not the official opposition. They will be too busy fighting each other to provide much challenge and resistance to problems created by a massive Labour majority.
Frankly, any likely scenario in which the Tories are ground down into third spot also implies a Liberal Democrat group so small that it won't be able to function fully as a Commons Opposition in the conventional sense. Procedural changes with respect to issues such as the composition of select committees would likely be needed, and a lot of shadow ministerial positions would need to be filled from the Lords.
Still, this is what you get from a perverse electoral system which could quite plausibly deliver the biggest Labour majority in history with a vote smaller, in both absolute numbers and share, than that received by Jeremy Corbyn when he lost in 2017.
I have never been a fan of FPTP, it is a stupid system and needs to go. But actually I don’t agree that Davey and the Lib Dem’s would not be an effective opposition. They have constantly demonstrated an ability to be effective campaigners with limited resources. I think they would certainly pick their fights. But I think we would see less confrontational but more effective national governance. Still I expect the Tories to hang on to enough seats to hang on to the role. That will lead to 5 years of chaos as the Tories fight each other while trying to act as an effective opposition. I suspect they will do neither thing very well.
It’s not a stupid system. It does what it aims to do very well.
PR supporters (generalising) that that parliament should represent the political composition of the voters on a national basis.
FPTP supporters think that local communities should elect a representative to stick up for their area
It’s logical to have FPTP for a constituency based approach
To which I will add that
FPTP does tend to produce a decisive, and usually stable, Government. Coalitions have a pretty chequered history around the world.
FPTP also means that minority parties are not disproportionately powerful, especially in coalition through the tail wagging the dog. Personally I think that’s a price worth paying for keeping extremism at bay, although I’m open to being persuaded on this topic.
Of the last 4 elections, half produced hung Parliaments.
Which was the choice of the voters in their constituencies.
If this election results in a landslide, then again each constituency has made its own, democratic choice.
If uk politics tells us anything it is that you have to be very careful substituting a flawed election winner for an untested younger fresh replacement. The Dems do not want to land themselves with a Truss or a Sunak.
HOW MANY FUCKING TIMES DID WE TELL YOU: BIDEN IS SENILE, THIS IS A DISASTER
And umpteen idiots on here waved it away - “no no, he’s fine, it’s normal, you’re just spouting Trumpite talking points”
Well. Here we are. Bravo
Every so often, you are right and the very clever people on here are wrong. The cherry on the cake will be Michelle Obama reluctantly accepting the nomination. She’s their only chance now.
Is she?
I know they would have to move fast but why is she their only chance? There are other capable Democrats, even if it’s somewhat short notice.
I mean, if it was the UK Conservative Party they would have time for 3 Presidents before the vote.
There are definitely other people who would be better candidates (Whitmer, Buttigeig, KLOBUCHAR). But there's an argument (not saying I buy it) for Michelle Obama based on how you get there.
The next-in-line is Kamala Harris, who is a black woman with a small but fairly demented fanbase who polls badly in the swing states. If you want to pass over her then the way to minimize the resulting fireworks is to select another black woman, and one with a decent amount of experience and/or star power. That gets you down to Oprah Winfrey or Michelle Obama.
Wow. Well, I’ve seen people on here mocking those who would place bets on Michelle Obama for the Presidency. Perhaps it’s not looking quite so outlandish now but an awful lot of things have to fall into place for that outcome. Starting perhaps with Jill Biden?
Yes, I definitely mocked it and I still think the odds are wrong but maybe I know nothing.
Getting Michelle Obama the nomination requires exactly the right amount of panic. If the polling shows no damage and Biden carries on, no Michelle. If Biden quits right away then it's Kamala, no Michelle. If the whole party goes into proper "shit shit shit we are so fucked" mode then everyone forgets about Kamala's feelings and picks the most electable person they can find, Buttigeig or Whitmer, I guess? So the dart has to fall in a very narrow place, and then she still has to say yes.
So I don't think it makes sense unless someone has inside information that this is actually a plan someone important is actually cooking up.
Unlikely to be any plan that anyone is 'cooking up'. Either someone steps up who can unite the party behind them, or not. There isn't some magical hand behind the curtain who gets to fix it. That's seems to have been a commonly held delusion for a long time.
It's the same thing as everyone that's been saying 'the Democrats need to replace Biden'. There's never been a single entity 'the Democrats' that can just step up and do that.
The difference now is that the shock of last night will unite a lot of disparate factions - including probably a fair chunk of those who previously wanted Biden to run again. But without Biden himself deciding to stand aside, how he gets replaced is very uncertain.
HOW MANY FUCKING TIMES DID WE TELL YOU: BIDEN IS SENILE, THIS IS A DISASTER
And umpteen idiots on here waved it away - “no no, he’s fine, it’s normal, you’re just spouting Trumpite talking points”
Well. Here we are. Bravo
Didn't he lock himself for a week at Camp David to prep for this debate and be well rested?
Just last week some twit on here tried to claim that Biden wandering into the distance at the G7 was a “trumpite lie” I was repeating - why? - and that Biden was just “trying to talk to different people”
It is insane what people will consciously disbelieve because the truth makes them uncomfortable
See also lab leak. 'PB Morale' comes ahead of people actually using their brain on here. The sheer amount of people who've sworn blind to me that Trump is more senile than Biden.
Trump is absolutely worse than Biden.
I'd take a full blown senile Biden (rather than a doddering old man Biden which is what he actually is) over Trump in any health, any day.
The problem is the American electorate may not.
Trump looked composed and he even got in some retorts. However on the whole he spewed out nonsensical garbage.
That said, Biden needs to stand aside for the future of the free world.
Trump spouting garbage says nothing about his health. He's always done that.
Biden 1.64-1.65 Newsom 5.8-5.9 M Obama 16.5-19 H Clinton 18.5-29 Harris 16.5-19 Whitmer 32-80
Interesting how Michelle Obama and Kamala Harris prices, including the spread on the prices, are currently identical. If Biden is persuaded to step aside will the Dems quickly crown one of the above in a backroom deal?
It says something when the top five in the betting are all unelectable.
Top four surely?
The fifth is the next in line and entirely electable. She should be second favourite.
Reflecting on the state of the Tory party it would perhaps be best for the country if they were not the official opposition. They will be too busy fighting each other to provide much challenge and resistance to problems created by a massive Labour majority.
Frankly, any likely scenario in which the Tories are ground down into third spot also implies a Liberal Democrat group so small that it won't be able to function fully as a Commons Opposition in the conventional sense. Procedural changes with respect to issues such as the composition of select committees would likely be needed, and a lot of shadow ministerial positions would need to be filled from the Lords.
Still, this is what you get from a perverse electoral system which could quite plausibly deliver the biggest Labour majority in history with a vote smaller, in both absolute numbers and share, than that received by Jeremy Corbyn when he lost in 2017.
I have never been a fan of FPTP, it is a stupid system and needs to go. But actually I don’t agree that Davey and the Lib Dem’s would not be an effective opposition. They have constantly demonstrated an ability to be effective campaigners with limited resources. I think they would certainly pick their fights. But I think we would see less confrontational but more effective national governance. Still I expect the Tories to hang on to enough seats to hang on to the role. That will lead to 5 years of chaos as the Tories fight each other while trying to act as an effective opposition. I suspect they will do neither thing very well.
It’s not a stupid system. It does what it aims to do very well.
PR supporters (generalising) that that parliament should represent the political composition of the voters on a national basis.
FPTP supporters think that local communities should elect a representative to stick up for their area
It’s logical to have FPTP for a constituency based approach
To which I will add that
FPTP does tend to produce a decisive, and usually stable, Government. Coalitions have a pretty chequered history around the world.
FPTP also means that minority parties are not disproportionately powerful, especially in coalition through the tail wagging the dog. Personally I think that’s a price worth paying for keeping extremism at bay, although I’m open to being persuaded on this topic.
We haven't seen stable governments since 2015.
Well this one will. And the one after. 10 years of Labour majority Government at a minimum.
We did our ‘right-wing’ bit ( @darkage ) back in 2016 and affirmed in 2019. Got it out of our system, realised it’s not the answer, and are now returning to a sensible centrist and stable Government.
Britain leading the way for the western world. Maybe Brexit did have its good side.
HOW MANY FUCKING TIMES DID WE TELL YOU: BIDEN IS SENILE, THIS IS A DISASTER
And umpteen idiots on here waved it away - “no no, he’s fine, it’s normal, you’re just spouting Trumpite talking points”
Well. Here we are. Bravo
Didn't he lock himself for a week at Camp David to prep for this debate and be well rested?
Just last week some twit on here tried to claim that Biden wandering into the distance at the G7 was a “trumpite lie” I was repeating - why? - and that Biden was just “trying to talk to different people”
It is insane what people will consciously disbelieve because the truth makes them uncomfortable
See also lab leak. 'PB Morale' comes ahead of people actually using their brain on here. The sheer amount of people who've sworn blind to me that Trump is more senile than Biden.
As for 'using your brain' - have you read the Dutch report into MH17 yet? I'm sure you thoroughly used your brain when you shilled for Putin...
All of us that have been saying “Biden is senile, this will be calamitous” really need an apology from all of you that were saying “no he’s not, it’s normal, he’s fine, he’s got a stammer, he’s always been like this, you’re working for Trump”
Coz there were a lot on both sides and I’m not sure PB can continue until we have this reckoning. We need some sort of Archbishop Desmond Tutu figure to run the PB Truth and Reconciliation Coz Biden Is Gaga Commission
Later on I’m gonna dig out some of the wackier “oh it’s just a stammer” nonsense for the lolz
Buttigeig has his fans here. But he is 200 for the Democratic nomination and 1000 to be next President.
Biden's nominee price has hardened a bit. 1.81-1.82.
He's pretty unlikely to get the nomination this time around. I mentioned him earlier purely in contrast to Biden's display last night. His ease at dealing with hostile Congressional questioning was pretty remarkable.
In the unlikely event of his debating Trump, he'd take him apart.
Quite some news this morning then. Blows our silly little election out of the way. I need to walk the dogs.
Time for a think.
Indeed, not the radio reports I wanted to wake up to. This and the developing electoral chaos in France.
Until this debate I’d thought Biden’s cognitive decline was exaggerated but it seems to be there for all to see. The Dems need something akin to the letters to Graham Brady.
If they switch, the dems need a street fighter who has actually won tight elections. An untested celebrity is a risk and a retread is only going to end one way.
Buttigeig has his fans here. But he is 200 for the Democratic nomination and 1000 to be next President.
Biden's nominee price has hardened a bit. 1.81-1.82.
He's pretty unlikely to get the nomination this time around. I mentioned him earlier purely in contrast to Biden's display last night. His ease at dealing with hostile Congressional questioning was pretty remarkable.
In the unlikely event of his debating Trump, he'd take him apart.
I think Buttegieg is brilliant. It’s true though that there’s no route for him to the nomination. It needs to be Michelle.
HOW MANY FUCKING TIMES DID WE TELL YOU: BIDEN IS SENILE, THIS IS A DISASTER
And umpteen idiots on here waved it away - “no no, he’s fine, it’s normal, you’re just spouting Trumpite talking points”
Well. Here we are. Bravo
Didn't he lock himself for a week at Camp David to prep for this debate and be well rested?
Just last week some twit on here tried to claim that Biden wandering into the distance at the G7 was a “trumpite lie” I was repeating - why? - and that Biden was just “trying to talk to different people”
It is insane what people will consciously disbelieve because the truth makes them uncomfortable
See also lab leak. 'PB Morale' comes ahead of people actually using their brain on here. The sheer amount of people who've sworn blind to me that Trump is more senile than Biden.
Trump is absolutely worse than Biden.
I'd take a full blown senile Biden (rather than a doddering old man Biden which is what he actually is) over Trump in any health, any day.
The problem is the American electorate may not.
Um, your words are in print here, we can all see that I wrote 'more senile than', not 'worse' which is an entirely different concept. Are you sill saying that Trump is more senile than Biden?
Biden probably isn't senile. He does appear old, fragile and forgetful. Trump speaks in gibberish, which would suggest a level of age related mental impairment, but as Barty suggests Trump has always talked unmitigated bollocks.
Buttigeig has his fans here. But he is 200 for the Democratic nomination and 1000 to be next President.
Biden's nominee price has hardened a bit. 1.81-1.82.
He's pretty unlikely to get the nomination this time around. I mentioned him earlier purely in contrast to Biden's display last night. His ease at dealing with hostile Congressional questioning was pretty remarkable.
In the unlikely event of his debating Trump, he'd take him apart.
My favourite possible future nominee by far. It is a huge shame he wasn't considerd last time and certainly he would doa better job of beating rump tis time than Biden will.
I said on here months ago that Biden would hand the Whitehouse to Trump and way too many otherwise sensible posters thought I was overreacting. I am now certain that if Biden is the nominee in November then Trump will be back in the Whitehouse in January.
What is clear to me is that […]. Starmers appeal is an ocean wide and as deep as a puddle. I think there will be a rapid breakthrough on the far right, likely not through the reform party, but it will come in the next few years.
Really you are conflating a whole variety of circumstances, nuances, geopolitics, parties and allegiances into your own predetermined political belief.
I think that we all do that. But it is a strong instinct that I have. It isn't that I believe in the far right. I am concerned about the failure of the political centre and its capture by the radical left in many areas (economics, culture, security, immigration controls etc), so much so it cannot adapt to a changing world.
There is a possibility that Starmer understands this and it is factored in to his thinking, but this is almost certainly not true of the labour party (and its MP's) more broadly.
HOW MANY FUCKING TIMES DID WE TELL YOU: BIDEN IS SENILE, THIS IS A DISASTER
And umpteen idiots on here waved it away - “no no, he’s fine, it’s normal, you’re just spouting Trumpite talking points”
Well. Here we are. Bravo
Didn't he lock himself for a week at Camp David to prep for this debate and be well rested?
Just last week some twit on here tried to claim that Biden wandering into the distance at the G7 was a “trumpite lie” I was repeating - why? - and that Biden was just “trying to talk to different people”
It is insane what people will consciously disbelieve because the truth makes them uncomfortable
See also lab leak. 'PB Morale' comes ahead of people actually using their brain on here. The sheer amount of people who've sworn blind to me that Trump is more senile than Biden.
As for 'using your brain' - have you read the Dutch report into MH17 yet? I'm sure you thoroughly used your brain when you shilled for Putin...
What is clear to me is that […]. Starmers appeal is an ocean wide and as deep as a puddle. I think there will be a rapid breakthrough on the far right, likely not through the reform party, but it will come in the next few years.
Really you are conflating a whole variety of circumstances, nuances, geopolitics, parties and allegiances into your own predetermined political belief.
Instead of the obvious: the President has dementia.
p.s. and the terrible mistake of thinking the US and the UK are politically the same, let alone similar
Against that, uncontrolled immigration is the great challenge that the west faces whether it is Mexico, the Med or the Channel.
No government has come up with a workable answer
The “right” answer is civil and economic development in Africa and other emerging countries to reduce the push factor. But that will take decades/generations and so is t a solution.
I don’t know what is. But what we have at the moment isn’t working
Buttigeig has his fans here. But he is 200 for the Democratic nomination and 1000 to be next President.
Biden's nominee price has hardened a bit. 1.81-1.82.
He's pretty unlikely to get the nomination this time around. I mentioned him earlier purely in contrast to Biden's display last night. His ease at dealing with hostile Congressional questioning was pretty remarkable.
In the unlikely event of his debating Trump, he'd take him apart.
I think Buttegieg is brilliant. It’s true though that there’s no route for him to the nomination. It needs to be Michelle.
I have laid Biden all along. He was obviously too old and frail, just surprised that it took so long for the penny to drop with the Democrats. It's too late to re-run primaries so the only real option is Kamala, imperfect as she is.
All of us that have been saying “Biden is senile, this will be calamitous” really need an apology from all of you that were saying “no he’s not, it’s normal, he’s fine, he’s got a stammer, he’s always been like this, you’re working for Trump”
Coz there were a lot on both sides and I’m not sure PB can continue until we have this reckoning. We need some sort of Archbishop Desmond Tutu figure to run the PB Truth and Reconciliation Coz Biden Is Gaga Commission
Later on I’m gonna dig out some of the wackier “oh it’s just a stammer” nonsense for the lolz
I don't know if he's technically 'senile' or not - that really requires a medical diagnosis, not randos on the Internet proclaiming it. Ditto Trump. Lots of what is shown on t'Internet is either out of context, or may just be non-senile artifacts of old age.
But... it's been clear for a couple of years (*) that Biden isn't up to the job. His initial selection for 2020 was poor, but at least he just managed to keep Trump out of the WH. Health issues or not, it was highly stupid for the Dems to let him get this far through the process; and highly stupid and dangerous for him (though understandable) not to decide not to stand a couple of years ago, and have a sensible handover to a new nominee.
If they switch, the dems need a street fighter who has actually won tight elections. An untested celebrity is a risk and a retread is only going to end one way.
Gretchen Witmer. She ticks every box. Not saying you should put money on her (the Democrats are dumb enough to go with Newsome) but she would beat Trump in every way.
Biden 1.64-1.65 Newsom 5.8-5.9 M Obama 16.5-19 H Clinton 18.5-29 Harris 16.5-19 Whitmer 32-80
Interesting how Michelle Obama and Kamala Harris prices, including the spread on the prices, are currently identical. If Biden is persuaded to step aside will the Dems quickly crown one of the above in a backroom deal?
It says something when the top five in the betting are all unelectable.
Top four surely?
The fifth is the next in line and entirely electable. She should be second favourite.
Next in line but seemingly too unpopular (I'm not sure why) to be electable.
If Harris had been popular she would have been much more prominent and Biden would have been under far more pressure to make way.
All of us that have been saying “Biden is senile, this will be calamitous” really need an apology from all of you that were saying “no he’s not, it’s normal, he’s fine, he’s got a stammer, he’s always been like this, you’re working for Trump”
Coz there were a lot on both sides and I’m not sure PB can continue until we have this reckoning. We need some sort of Archbishop Desmond Tutu figure to run the PB Truth and Reconciliation Coz Biden Is Gaga Commission
Later on I’m gonna dig out some of the wackier “oh it’s just a stammer” nonsense for the lolz
Well, when you (generally the Democratic establishment and a lot of the friendly media) attempt to gaslight the public and try and tell them something different to what their eyes and ears are telling them, then there’s always a risk there’ll be an Emperors New Clothes moment.
It’s been clear for some time Biden is, if not senile, in significant decline. The question was whether Democrats could keep that successfully out of the campaign or not. They’ve failed, badly.
HOW MANY FUCKING TIMES DID WE TELL YOU: BIDEN IS SENILE, THIS IS A DISASTER
And umpteen idiots on here waved it away - “no no, he’s fine, it’s normal, you’re just spouting Trumpite talking points”
Well. Here we are. Bravo
Every so often, you are right and the very clever people on here are wrong. The cherry on the cake will be Michelle Obama reluctantly accepting the nomination. She’s their only chance now.
Is she?
I know they would have to move fast but why is she their only chance? There are other capable Democrats, even if it’s somewhat short notice.
I mean, if it was the UK Conservative Party they would have time for 3 Presidents before the vote.
There are definitely other people who would be better candidates (Whitmer, Buttigeig, KLOBUCHAR). But there's an argument (not saying I buy it) for Michelle Obama based on how you get there.
The next-in-line is Kamala Harris, who is a black woman with a small but fairly demented fanbase who polls badly in the swing states. If you want to pass over her then the way to minimize the resulting fireworks is to select another black woman, and one with a decent amount of experience and/or star power. That gets you down to Oprah Winfrey or Michelle Obama.
Wow. Well, I’ve seen people on here mocking those who would place bets on Michelle Obama for the Presidency. Perhaps it’s not looking quite so outlandish now but an awful lot of things have to fall into place for that outcome. Starting perhaps with Jill Biden?
Yes, I definitely mocked it and I still think the odds are wrong but maybe I know nothing.
Getting Michelle Obama the nomination requires exactly the right amount of panic. If the polling shows no damage and Biden carries on, no Michelle. If Biden quits right away then it's Kamala, no Michelle. If the whole party goes into proper "shit shit shit we are so fucked" mode then everyone forgets about Kamala's feelings and picks the most electable person they can find, Buttigeig or Whitmer, I guess? So the dart has to fall in a very narrow place, and then she still has to say yes.
So I don't think it makes sense unless someone has inside information that this is actually a plan someone important is actually cooking up.
Unlikely to be any plan that anyone is 'cooking up'. Either someone steps up who can unite the party behind them, or not. There isn't some magical hand behind the curtain who gets to fix it. That's seems to have been a commonly held delusion for a long time.
It's the same thing as everyone that's been saying 'the Democrats need to replace Biden'. There's never been a single entity 'the Democrats' that can just step up and do that.
The difference now is that the shock of last night will unite a lot of disparate factions - including probably a fair chunk of those who previously wanted Biden to run again. But without Biden himself deciding to stand aside, how he gets replaced is very uncertain.
As an aside, what do people who think that political parties have too much power (in the UK) think of the situation in the US where parties have far less power? Much as political parties can be really shit, maybe reasonably strong political parties are better than the alternative?
Surely Con will do what they did after 1997? Rishi will remain Con leader and LOTO (assuming Con are the official Opposition on 5th July) while a leadership election takes place through the rest if the Summer and the new leader will be announced in September?
HOW MANY FUCKING TIMES DID WE TELL YOU: BIDEN IS SENILE, THIS IS A DISASTER
And umpteen idiots on here waved it away - “no no, he’s fine, it’s normal, you’re just spouting Trumpite talking points”
Well. Here we are. Bravo
Didn't he lock himself for a week at Camp David to prep for this debate and be well rested?
Just last week some twit on here tried to claim that Biden wandering into the distance at the G7 was a “trumpite lie” I was repeating - why? - and that Biden was just “trying to talk to different people”
It is insane what people will consciously disbelieve because the truth makes them uncomfortable
See also lab leak. 'PB Morale' comes ahead of people actually using their brain on here. The sheer amount of people who've sworn blind to me that Trump is more senile than Biden.
As for 'using your brain' - have you read the Dutch report into MH17 yet? I'm sure you thoroughly used your brain when you shilled for Putin...
Exhibit A.
Yes, you are a perfect exhibit of a Putinist shill.
Has anyone considered, whilst piling on about how the Democrats shouldn't have nominated Biden, that this debate was actually their exit strategy?
Like, I'm not saying they wanted this to happen. I'm sure they wanted to wake up today and everyone be singing the praises of Comeback Joe. But they chose to have this debate before the convention. And as someone who's always been resentful of Biden running again (he has a 34% chance of dying before the end of the next term, according to SSA stats) I was really glad they did this. Biden needed to prove he's still up to the job, and this was the quickest, easiest way of proving either way or another.
Now, with little effort, they can get him to step aside and move on and destroy Trump.
What is clear to me is that […]. Starmers appeal is an ocean wide and as deep as a puddle. I think there will be a rapid breakthrough on the far right, likely not through the reform party, but it will come in the next few years.
Really you are conflating a whole variety of circumstances, nuances, geopolitics, parties and allegiances into your own predetermined political belief.
Instead of the obvious: the President has dementia.
p.s. and the terrible mistake of thinking the US and the UK are politically the same, let alone similar
Against that, uncontrolled immigration is the great challenge that the west faces whether it is Mexico, the Med or the Channel.
No government has come up with a workable answer
The “right” answer is civil and economic development in Africa and other emerging countries to reduce the push factor. But that will take decades/generations and so is t a solution.
I don’t know what is. But what we have at the moment isn’t working
The problem is that right now we are still going in the other direction. The big powers - US, Russia, China and Europe (I don't say the EU because I include the UK in this) are still pushing deals for trade and access to resources with Third World Countries that are not to their advantage and which drive poverty, instability and migration. Whether this is cash crops, fishing rights or mining concessions, we are doing nothing to change the situation in places like Africa and so are perpetuating and increasing those push factors.
We need an entirely new First World mindset when it comes to dealing with emerging economies.
Biden is probably fine at day to day presidential stuff, and bills and reading etc, and can think things through but isn't agile enough in debates anymore.
I imagine he'll do more rehearsed ads after this, that can be pre-recorded.
All of us that have been saying “Biden is senile, this will be calamitous” really need an apology from all of you that were saying “no he’s not, it’s normal, he’s fine, he’s got a stammer, he’s always been like this, you’re working for Trump”
Coz there were a lot on both sides and I’m not sure PB can continue until we have this reckoning. We need some sort of Archbishop Desmond Tutu figure to run the PB Truth and Reconciliation Coz Biden Is Gaga Commission
Later on I’m gonna dig out some of the wackier “oh it’s just a stammer” nonsense for the lolz
I don't know if he's technically 'senile' or not - that really requires a medical diagnosis, not randos on the Internet proclaiming it. Ditto Trump. Lots of what is shown on t'Internet is either out of context, or may just be non-senile artifacts of old age.
But... it's been clear for a couple of years (*) that Biden isn't up to the job. His initial selection for 2020 was poor, but at least he just managed to keep Trump out of the WH. Health issues or not, it was highly stupid for the Dems to let him get this far through the process; and highly stupid and dangerous for him (though understandable) not to decide not to stand a couple of years ago, and have a sensible handover to a new nominee.
(*) And I believe I've said so.
Yes, he was a bad candidate in 2020 - most of the Dems only united around him because they were scared that if they didn't that Sanders would be the nominee.
Here's Biden campaigning for the Dem nomination in 2020 promising to be a "bridge" to Harris, Booker, or Whitmer:
“Look, I view myself as a bridge, not as anything else,” Biden said. “There’s an entire generation of leaders you saw stand behind me. They are the future of this country.”
Quite some news this morning then. Blows our silly little election out of the way. I need to walk the dogs.
Time for a think.
Indeed, not the radio reports I wanted to wake up to. This and the developing electoral chaos in France.
Until this debate I’d thought Biden’s cognitive decline was exaggerated but it seems to be there for all to see. The Dems need something akin to the letters to Graham Brady.
Why don’t you ask yourself why you willingly disbelieve what is screamingly obvious?
We saw the same with Lab Leak. It is quite bizarre how educated people can suspend all intellectual faculties to avoid being distressed or discomfited
Quite some news this morning then. Blows our silly little election out of the way. I need to walk the dogs.
Time for a think.
Indeed, not the radio reports I wanted to wake up to. This and the developing electoral chaos in France.
Until this debate I’d thought Biden’s cognitive decline was exaggerated but it seems to be there for all to see. The Dems need something akin to the letters to Graham Brady.
Why don’t you ask yourself why you willingly disbelieve what is screamingly obvious?
We saw the same with Lab Leak. It is quite bizarre how educated people can suspend all intellectual faculties to avoid being distressed or discomfited
Except lab leak has not been 'proved'. It is an hypothesis. It is quite bizarre how educated but low-IQ people can zone in on one possible scenario just so they can screech: "I was right!!!!" It's almost as though they like the drama...
What is clear to me is that […]. Starmers appeal is an ocean wide and as deep as a puddle. I think there will be a rapid breakthrough on the far right, likely not through the reform party, but it will come in the next few years.
Really you are conflating a whole variety of circumstances, nuances, geopolitics, parties and allegiances into your own predetermined political belief.
Instead of the obvious: the President has dementia.
p.s. and the terrible mistake of thinking the US and the UK are politically the same, let alone similar
Against that, uncontrolled immigration is the great challenge that the west faces whether it is Mexico, the Med or the Channel.
No government has come up with a workable answer
The “right” answer is civil and economic development in Africa and other emerging countries to reduce the push factor. But that will take decades/generations and so is t a solution.
I don’t know what is. But what we have at the moment isn’t working
The problem is that right now we are still going in the other direction. The big powers - US, Russia, China and Europe (I don't say the EU because I include the UK in this) are still pushing deals for trade and access to resources with Third World Countries that are not to their advantage and which drive poverty, instability and migration. Whether this is cash crops, fishing rights or mining concessions, we are doing nothing to change the situation in places like Africa and so are perpetuating and increasing those push factors.
We need an entirely new First World mindset when it comes to dealing with emerging economies.
I'm thoroughly in favour of the foreign aid budget, which to some degree helps what you say.
Surely Con will do what they did after 1997? Rishi will remain Con leader and LOTO (assuming Con are the official Opposition on 5th July) while a leadership election takes place through the rest if the Summer and the new leader will be announced in September?
It only gets complicated if Rishi loses his seat?
That's what everyone thought about Cameron after his promise to stay on after the Brexit Referendum.
But he ran away with the Raggle Taggle Gypsy Caravan Oh !
Surely Con will do what they did after 1997? Rishi will remain Con leader and LOTO (assuming Con are the official Opposition on 5th July) while a leadership election takes place through the rest if the Summer and the new leader will be announced in September?
It only gets complicated if Rishi loses his seat?
That's what everyone thought about Cameron after his promise to stay on after the Brexit Referendum.
But he ran away with the Raggle Taggle Gypsy Caravan Oh !
Cameron was still PM not LOTO as Sunak would be then
Surely Con will do what they did after 1997? Rishi will remain Con leader and LOTO (assuming Con are the official Opposition on 5th July) while a leadership election takes place through the rest if the Summer and the new leader will be announced in September?
It only gets complicated if Rishi loses his seat?
That's what everyone thought about Cameron after his promise to stay on after the Brexit Referendum.
But he ran away with the Raggle Taggle Gypsy Caravan Oh !
Cameron was still PM not LOTO as Sunak would be then
HOW MANY FUCKING TIMES DID WE TELL YOU: BIDEN IS SENILE, THIS IS A DISASTER
And umpteen idiots on here waved it away - “no no, he’s fine, it’s normal, you’re just spouting Trumpite talking points”
Well. Here we are. Bravo
Didn't he lock himself for a week at Camp David to prep for this debate and be well rested?
Just last week some twit on here tried to claim that Biden wandering into the distance at the G7 was a “trumpite lie” I was repeating - why? - and that Biden was just “trying to talk to different people”
It is insane what people will consciously disbelieve because the truth makes them uncomfortable
See also lab leak. 'PB Morale' comes ahead of people actually using their brain on here. The sheer amount of people who've sworn blind to me that Trump is more senile than Biden.
As for 'using your brain' - have you read the Dutch report into MH17 yet? I'm sure you thoroughly used your brain when you shilled for Putin...
Exhibit A.
Yes, you are a perfect exhibit of a Putinist shill.
HOW MANY FUCKING TIMES DID WE TELL YOU: BIDEN IS SENILE, THIS IS A DISASTER
And umpteen idiots on here waved it away - “no no, he’s fine, it’s normal, you’re just spouting Trumpite talking points”
Well. Here we are. Bravo
Didn't he lock himself for a week at Camp David to prep for this debate and be well rested?
Just last week some twit on here tried to claim that Biden wandering into the distance at the G7 was a “trumpite lie” I was repeating - why? - and that Biden was just “trying to talk to different people”
It is insane what people will consciously disbelieve because the truth makes them uncomfortable
See also lab leak. 'PB Morale' comes ahead of people actually using their brain on here. The sheer amount of people who've sworn blind to me that Trump is more senile than Biden.
Trump is absolutely worse than Biden.
I'd take a full blown senile Biden (rather than a doddering old man Biden which is what he actually is) over Trump in any health, any day.
The problem is the American electorate may not.
Um, your words are in print here, we can all see that I wrote 'more senile than', not 'worse' which is an entirely different concept. Are you sill saying that Trump is more senile than Biden?
Unless Biden has been babbling incoherently about electric boats and sharks, yes.
Comments
Instead of the obvious: the President has dementia.
p.s. and the terrible mistake of thinking the US and the UK are politically the same, let alone similar
Biden's nominee price has hardened a bit. 1.81-1.82.
Time for a think.
If this election results in a landslide, then again each constituency has made its own, democratic choice.
There isn't some magical hand behind the curtain who gets to fix it. That's seems to have been a commonly held delusion for a long time.
It's the same thing as everyone that's been saying 'the Democrats need to replace Biden'.
There's never been a single entity 'the Democrats' that can just step up and do that.
The difference now is that the shock of last night will unite a lot of disparate factions - including probably a fair chunk of those who previously wanted Biden to run again.
But without Biden himself deciding to stand aside, how he gets replaced is very uncertain.
The fifth is the next in line and entirely electable. She should be second favourite.
We did our ‘right-wing’ bit ( @darkage ) back in 2016 and affirmed in 2019. Got it out of our system, realised it’s not the answer, and are now returning to a sensible centrist and stable Government.
Britain leading the way for the western world. Maybe Brexit did have its good side.
That right there was a knockout moment.
I’m sorry to say. Because I don’t want a Trump presidency. I also think Biden has done a generally good job.
The only saving grace is it happened pre-convention. That gives an exit ramp, if they can navigate Biden towards it. But it will be messy and chaotic.
Coz there were a lot on both sides and I’m not sure PB can continue until we have this reckoning. We need some sort of Archbishop Desmond Tutu figure to run the PB Truth and Reconciliation Coz Biden Is Gaga Commission
Later on I’m gonna dig out some of the wackier “oh it’s just a stammer” nonsense for the lolz
I mentioned him earlier purely in contrast to Biden's display last night. His ease at dealing with hostile Congressional questioning was pretty remarkable.
In the unlikely event of his debating Trump, he'd take him apart.
Until this debate I’d thought Biden’s cognitive decline was exaggerated but it seems to be there for all to see. The Dems need something akin to the letters to Graham Brady.
Cannot be a shock this. His conversion to the Palestinian cause always appeared to be more for electoral advantage where they are struggling
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/starmer-set-to-delay-recognising-a-palestinian-state-if-pm/ar-BB1p1DGj?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=27b894e0485746c6b4d4b2e4f6a39b8e&ei=16
I said on here months ago that Biden would hand the Whitehouse to Trump and way too many otherwise sensible posters thought I was overreacting. I am now certain that if Biden is the nominee in November then Trump will be back in the Whitehouse in January.
Losing a few antisemites to the Greens won't lose him the election. Quite the opposite.
There is a possibility that Starmer understands this and it is factored in to his thinking, but this is almost certainly not true of the labour party (and its MP's) more broadly.
(FINAL CNN FOCUS GROUP POLL)
Note: Poll was taken of 15 undecided voters in a battleground-state county Trump won in 2020.
🟦 BIDEN WON: 7
🟥 TRUMP WON: 7
🟨 UNDECIDED: 1
https://x.com/SethAbramson/status/1806548394673836122
No government has come up with a workable answer
The “right” answer is civil and economic development in Africa and other emerging countries to reduce the push factor. But that will take decades/generations and so is t a solution.
I don’t know what is. But what we have at the moment isn’t working
https://inglesp.github.io/apogee/
Boris! the man. Boris! The legend. Boris! Available and eligible.
Get it done. Shagger vs Shagger - the contest to end all contests.
But... it's been clear for a couple of years (*) that Biden isn't up to the job. His initial selection for 2020 was poor, but at least he just managed to keep Trump out of the WH. Health issues or not, it was highly stupid for the Dems to let him get this far through the process; and highly stupid and dangerous for him (though understandable) not to decide not to stand a couple of years ago, and have a sensible handover to a new nominee.
(*) And I believe I've said so.
NEW THREAD
If Harris had been popular she would have been much more prominent and Biden would have been under far more pressure to make way.
It’s been clear for some time Biden is, if not senile, in significant decline. The question was whether Democrats could keep that successfully out of the campaign or not. They’ve failed, badly.
It only gets complicated if Rishi loses his seat?
298 people died on MH17.
Like, I'm not saying they wanted this to happen. I'm sure they wanted to wake up today and everyone be singing the praises of Comeback Joe. But they chose to have this debate before the convention. And as someone who's always been resentful of Biden running again (he has a 34% chance of dying before the end of the next term, according to SSA stats) I was really glad they did this. Biden needed to prove he's still up to the job, and this was the quickest, easiest way of proving either way or another.
Now, with little effort, they can get him to step aside and move on and destroy Trump.
That's assuming they can get him to step aside.
We need an entirely new First World mindset when it comes to dealing with emerging economies.
I imagine he'll do more rehearsed ads after this, that can be pre-recorded.
Here's Biden campaigning for the Dem nomination in 2020 promising to be a "bridge" to Harris, Booker, or Whitmer:
“Look, I view myself as a bridge, not as anything else,” Biden said. “There’s an entire generation of leaders you saw stand behind me. They are the future of this country.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/09/politics/joe-biden-bridge-new-generation-of-leaders/index.html
Time for him to fulfil that promise. Actually a few months overdue.
We saw the same with Lab Leak. It is quite bizarre how educated people can suspend all intellectual faculties to avoid being distressed or discomfited
I do also have some nice dem nominee/president positions, mostly traded out but with a bit of upside if the Dems do panic.
Trump is my only real loser here and if he wins I'll have bigger concerns than a bit of lost money.
But he ran away with the Raggle Taggle Gypsy Caravan Oh !
We may have the opportunity to find out !