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Oh for Fox’s sake – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,158
edited July 4 in General
imageOh for Fox’s sake – politicalbetting.com

EXC: Senior Tories mull long leadership election – even to December. Dowden under stewardship of Cameron as acting leader — but only if he holds seat If contest forced by what’s left of party then grandees DD and Liam Fox floated as caretaker leaderhttps://t.co/KoqqwNN9ZH

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,046
    Dowden is a mentee of Cameron? Has that been mentioned before?

    And yes, the Tory drama will probably take a few years at least - they need to figure out what went wrong, and there won't be consensus on that right away.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,281
    Absolute scenes!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,601
    edited June 27
    I was in bed when someone sent me this story, I thought I was having a nightmare.

    Liam Fox or David Davis!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,046
    edited June 27

    Andy_JS said:

    ITV News: Labour worried about a dozen seats with large Muslim electorates where they're concerned their majority may be slashed or even lost altogether.

    Send people from Bangladesh home not winning votes in my local "Indian" tonight.
    Do you think people coming here illegally from Bangladesh should be allowed to stay?
    A few years ago some of the Indian restaurants in my area started getting raided by Immigration. It was where they owned several in the region, and the rumour was they were dobbing their rivals in, apparently not seeing there might be blowback.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,046

    I was in bed when someone sent me this story, I thought I was having a nightmare.

    Liam Fox or David Davis!

    I assumed they were not even standing, but some MPs just stick around forever.

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Nunu5 said:

    DavidL said:

    I am not getting a lot of joy out of this election but the thing I find most irritating is the number of muppets minded to vote for Reform and, indirectly, 10 years of socialist government. There have been suggestions for a while that IQs are falling but this is a jump off a tall bridge.

    You begin to wonder if democracy is just too hard for some people.

    I think the video revealed by channel 4 today will give many pause for thought.......it's not pretty. I say this as someone who wanted them as the main opposition.
    I sincerely apologise to all muppets. Stating you were the equivalent of Reform voters was grossly unfair.
    I'm afraid they are our Deplorables - unPC though it is to say it.
    You critisise the politicians, you don’t critise the voters. Ask Hillary Clinton.
    But this is me. I'm not running for anything. I can tell the truth.
    Besides, Hillary Clinton was completely right in what she said and its not why she lost.

    She lost because she was an awful campaigner who totally ignored the electoral college and didn't do enough campaigning in the swing flyover states. She spent more time on the coast than in the states that would decide the election.

    Biden didn't make the same mistake, so he won a much healthier electoral college vote.

    Biden will concentrate on the key states again this year. He knows what he's doing in a way Hillary didn't, which is funny considering her husband's background as Governor of Arkansas and then some other job.
    ... and that Hillary had made exactly the same error when losing the nomination to Barack Obama in 2008.

    ETA scooped by SSI2
    My favourites in Hillary vs Trump

    1) taking a two week holiday in the Hamptons during the middle of the campaign.
    2) blowing off an arranged event with the teaching unions to do a paid speech to Goldman Sucks.
    3) winning the popular vote against the Donald.
    You have to succeed under the system you have or it is not victory. Biden was miles ahead on the popular vote but his margin of victory was extremely slender, hence why he might lose this time.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,046
    Only a few more sleeps until the first round of the French legislative elections. Voting on a day other than Thursday? Savages.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,601
    edited June 27
    kle4 said:

    Dowden is a mentee of Cameron? Has that been mentioned before?

    And yes, the Tory drama will probably take a few years at least - they need to figure out what went wrong, and there won't be consensus on that right away.

    Dowden read Law at Cambridge, of course he's hopefully devoted to Dave.

    He used to work for Dave when Dave was leader, he was Lord High Executioner of those MPs he thought were bad 'uns over expenses, Dave nicknamed him The Undertaker.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,046
    Actually on the French elections did the Republicans ever sort out that mess with their leadership?
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 964
    Any one else get the feeling despite the polls the exit poll will throw up a couple of shocks? I don't know why I just have a feeling that the polls will be off in some way. Whereby everyone will say "there's no way that's right" and then it will transpire to be right?
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,870
    Nunu5 said:

    Any one else get the feeling despite the polls the exit poll will throw up a couple of shocks? I don't know why I just have a feeling that the polls will be off in some way. Whereby everyone will say "there's no way that's right" and then it will transpire to be right?

    I am hoping ed davey is wearing a hat
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,895

    I was in bed when someone sent me this story, I thought I was having a nightmare.

    Liam Fox or David Davis!

    DD? Perhaps he still has the tshirts?


  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,601

    I was in bed when someone sent me this story, I thought I was having a nightmare.

    Liam Fox or David Davis!

    DD? Perhaps he still has the tshirts?


    What a tit.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,983
    Pagan2 said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Any one else get the feeling despite the polls the exit poll will throw up a couple of shocks? I don't know why I just have a feeling that the polls will be off in some way. Whereby everyone will say "there's no way that's right" and then it will transpire to be right?

    I am hoping ed davey is wearing a hat
    That’s my big fear, which I know will delight you. The fear that Lib Dems flop yet again.

    I am a veteran of many disappointing general election nights. Lib Dems are certainly not glory supporters.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,615
    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ITV News: Labour worried about a dozen seats with large Muslim electorates where they're concerned their majority may be slashed or even lost altogether.

    Send people from Bangladesh home not winning votes in my local "Indian" tonight.
    Do you think people coming here illegally from Bangladesh should be allowed to stay?
    A few years ago some of the Indian restaurants in my area started getting raided by Immigration. It was where they owned several in the region, and the rumour was they were dobbing their rivals in, apparently not seeing there might be blowback.
    I suspect most illegal Bangladeshis are visa overstayed rather than small boat people, so relatively easy to deport.

    It might help if we did exit passport checks, but as we don't we really have little solid data on the number who have over-stayed.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,366
    edited June 27
    The Sun article linked to in the header is brilliant. Apparently Starmer is going to win the election hands down although he is hugely unpopular. It goes on to say:
    More than half of voters — 52 per cent — already say they are dissatisfied with his performance.
    Seems somewhat premature, though some on PB have reached the same judgement already on PM SKS.

    Incidentally, on QT tonight Andrew Mitchell basically conceded defeat, and made no attempt to suggest we might be in for a surprise next week. The Tories have given up.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,601
    edited June 27

    The Sun article linked to in the header is brilliant. Apparently Starmer is going to win the election hands down although he is hugely unpopular. It goes on to say:
    More than half of voters — 52 per cent — already say they are dissatisfied with his performance.
    Seems somewhat premature, though some on PB have reached the same judgement already on PM SKS.

    Incidentally, on QT tonight Andrew Mitchell basically conceded defeat, and made no attempt to suggest we might be in for a surprise next week. The Tories have given up.

    That's on his performance as Labour leader.

    I'd expect his ratings to improve in the weeks/months after he wins the election/becomes PM.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,348
    kle4 said:

    Only a few more sleeps until the first round of the French legislative elections. Voting on a day other than Thursday? Savages.

    I voted on a Friday in Ireland recently. It was surprisingly okay.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,601
    edited June 27
    Some info on the Dave/Dowden backstory.

    When he worked in David Cameron’s office, Dowden advised the then prime minister on which Tory MPs could not survive the expenses scandal. For this Cameron called him the undertaker.

    His other nickname, Olive, began as teasing in the Conservative research department in 2005 when a typo on the spelling of his first name led to many letters being address to Miss Dowden.

    Osborne, one of those who calls him Olive, is a great admirer. The former chancellor told the BBC: “Part of the secret sauce of the Cameron government was Oliver Dowden beavering away sorting out problems. Sometimes the Cameron government looked a bit swan like, but there was furious paddling underneath and Oliver Dowden was one of the paddlers.”


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/apr/23/oliver-dowden-the-new-deputy-pm-who-is-more-hardline-than-his-image
  • PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 580
    Laying Farage at odds of around 14 / 16 feels very dodgy. That almost feels value on him becoming next leader - e.g. a 10% ish chance seems very fair.

    Also, if we have a scenario where say it's the Lib Dems on 60, Tories on 57 and Reform on 5-10. Or anything similar to that. Farage will be able to say "Make me Tory leader and I'll do a merger - we can be the official opposition - otherwise Ed Davey will be LOTO and the Tories are finished." I just can't see how someone like Priti Patel or Oliver Dowden can make a more convincing argument than that.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,046
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ITV News: Labour worried about a dozen seats with large Muslim electorates where they're concerned their majority may be slashed or even lost altogether.

    Send people from Bangladesh home not winning votes in my local "Indian" tonight.
    Do you think people coming here illegally from Bangladesh should be allowed to stay?
    A few years ago some of the Indian restaurants in my area started getting raided by Immigration. It was where they owned several in the region, and the rumour was they were dobbing their rivals in, apparently not seeing there might be blowback.
    I suspect most illegal Bangladeshis are visa overstayed rather than small boat people, so relatively easy to deport.

    They aren't prepared with persuasive explanations apparently. A surprising number are just staying with a friend and certainly are not working there, they just were very briefly and randomly helping out in the kitchen or serving food at the precise when the immigration team arrived, but hadn't been at any other time.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,366

    The Sun article linked to in the header is brilliant. Apparently Starmer is going to win the election hands down although he is hugely unpopular. It goes on to say:
    More than half of voters — 52 per cent — already say they are dissatisfied with his performance.
    Seems somewhat premature, though some on PB have reached the same judgement already on PM SKS.

    Incidentally, on QT tonight Andrew Mitchell basically conceded defeat, and made no attempt to suggest we might be in for a surprise next week. The Tories have given up.

    That's on his performance as Labour leader.
    Yes I know - but in the context the use of the word 'already' in the quote is intended to read as a judgement on him as PM, is it not?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,348
    Nunu5 said:

    Any one else get the feeling despite the polls the exit poll will throw up a couple of shocks? I don't know why I just have a feeling that the polls will be off in some way. Whereby everyone will say "there's no way that's right" and then it will transpire to be right?

    No-one has any idea what is going to happen so the exit poll could be anything and people will think, "surely that can't be right?" because the exit poll can't be all the possible things that we think might happen. It can only be one.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,046

    kle4 said:

    Only a few more sleeps until the first round of the French legislative elections. Voting on a day other than Thursday? Savages.

    I voted on a Friday in Ireland recently. It was surprisingly okay.
    See how insidious it is?

    Next thing you know they'll convince you Wednesday is ok, and then what, where will the madness end?!
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,568
    Today's allowance:

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,651
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Only a few more sleeps until the first round of the French legislative elections. Voting on a day other than Thursday? Savages.

    I voted on a Friday in Ireland recently. It was surprisingly okay.
    See how insidious it is?

    Next thing you know they'll convince you Wednesday is ok, and then what, where will the madness end?!
    Tuesday.

    Monday is never going to work.
  • On topic, what a bunch of no marks, looking for a brief moment in the spotlight.

    I'm reminded of David Lidington being mooted as an interim PM during May's troubles - "I know nobody has ever and would never give me the time of day in normal circumstances, but I've got through as minister of whatever with no massive f*ck-ups, so why not give me my moment in the sun?"
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,240
    I agree that betting on the Con leadership now is a mug's game. We need to know first how many MPs they have left and which wings of the party they are from.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,348
    I think TSE is wrong to advise people to wait to see who survives. The value bet will be to look at which of the long-odds leadership hopefuls you think have a good chance of surviving.

    Once everyone knows who has survived the election the value will quickly evaporate.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,366

    Nunu5 said:

    Any one else get the feeling despite the polls the exit poll will throw up a couple of shocks? I don't know why I just have a feeling that the polls will be off in some way. Whereby everyone will say "there's no way that's right" and then it will transpire to be right?

    No-one has any idea what is going to happen so the exit poll could be anything and people will think, "surely that can't be right?" because the exit poll can't be all the possible things that we think might happen. It can only be one.
    I don't agree that nobody has any idea what the exit poll will show. It will show a Labour overall majority. Size yet to be determined.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,960
    edited June 27
    Taps mic...WRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRONNNNNNNNNNNNGGGGGGGGGGGGGG.

    Oh am I too early for the debate?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Only a few more sleeps until the first round of the French legislative elections. Voting on a day other than Thursday? Savages.

    I voted on a Friday in Ireland recently. It was surprisingly okay.
    See how insidious it is?

    Next thing you know they'll convince you Wednesday is ok, and then what, where will the madness end?!
    Or on a Tuesday and, hey presto, it’s 1931 again.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,046
    edited June 27

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Only a few more sleeps until the first round of the French legislative elections. Voting on a day other than Thursday? Savages.

    I voted on a Friday in Ireland recently. It was surprisingly okay.
    See how insidious it is?

    Next thing you know they'll convince you Wednesday is ok, and then what, where will the madness end?!
    Tuesday.

    Monday is never going to work.
    We came very close to having a Tuesday GE in 2019, thank goodness sense prevailed, this is not the 30s anymore. I have seen a few local election by-elections on a Tuesday before, I assume the returning officer was fired immediately afterwards.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,846
    Is this not posited on Rishi losing his seat? (And Dowden retaining his.)
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Only a few more sleeps until the first round of the French legislative elections. Voting on a day other than Thursday? Savages.

    I voted on a Friday in Ireland recently. It was surprisingly okay.
    See how insidious it is?

    Next thing you know they'll convince you Wednesday is ok, and then what, where will the madness end?!
    Tuesday.

    Monday is never going to work.
    We came very close to having a Tuesday GE in 2019, thank goodness sense prevailed, this is not the 30s anymore. I have seen a few local election by-elections on a Tuesday before, I assume the returning officer was fired immediately afterwards.
    I recall a Wednesday local council by-election a while ago which was explained by the usual polling station being booked out for a panto from the Thursday. Had a decent turnout - I'm not sure it really matters.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,846
    Would Rishi losing his seat count as a Portillo moment or does the fact we are even discussing that eventuality remove the necessary element of surprise?
  • James_MJames_M Posts: 103
    A good period of reflection pre-leadership race would be sensible. It may also allow some of the more reactionary analyses to settle down. Ultimately the country aren't going to care much what a recently defeated Conservative party think or do. Measure twice, cut once they say in the trades. Here the Conservatives needs to think twice and elect once. We'll this Parliamentary cycle 😁
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    Laying Farage at odds of around 14 / 16 feels very dodgy. That almost feels value on him becoming next leader - e.g. a 10% ish chance seems very fair.

    Also, if we have a scenario where say it's the Lib Dems on 60, Tories on 57 and Reform on 5-10. Or anything similar to that. Farage will be able to say "Make me Tory leader and I'll do a merger - we can be the official opposition - otherwise Ed Davey will be LOTO and the Tories are finished." I just can't see how someone like Priti Patel or Oliver Dowden can make a more convincing argument than that.

    Has there ever been a situation before where it's a close-run thing who is the leader of the opposition? Can it keep changing during the parliament as the parties split and merge?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,228
    carnforth said:

    Today's allowance:

    That’s a very clever cover and I’m really glad that the Economist clearly employed human artists to do it
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,826
    kle4 said:

    Dowden is a mentee of Cameron? Has that been mentioned before?

    And yes, the Tory drama will probably take a few years at least - they need to figure out what went wrong, and there won't be consensus on that right away.

    One of the problems is we don't really know what sort of PM Starmer will be. His own coalition of voters is potentially pretty fractious, WWC/Guardian readers/ethnic minorities but what will he push the boat out on?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,540
    Kemi Badenoch seems like the frontrunner to me.
  • Tim_in_RuislipTim_in_Ruislip Posts: 435
    edited June 27
    Great BBC QT tonight.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    I was in bed when someone sent me this story, I thought I was having a nightmare.

    Liam Fox or David Davis!

    DD? Perhaps he still has the tshirts?


    What a tit.
    You deserve the booby prize for that.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,321

    I agree that betting on the Con leadership now is a mug's game. We need to know first how many MPs they have left and which wings of the party they are from.

    Wings?

    You mean there are going to be two of them?

    My money is on Sir Christopher Chope, the only cockroach guaranteed to survive the blast.
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 882

    kle4 said:

    Dowden is a mentee of Cameron? Has that been mentioned before?

    And yes, the Tory drama will probably take a few years at least - they need to figure out what went wrong, and there won't be consensus on that right away.

    One of the problems is we don't really know what sort of PM Starmer will be. His own coalition of voters is potentially pretty fractious, WWC/Guardian readers/ethnic minorities but what will he push the boat out on?
    That's an interesting coalition, reminds me of the New Deal coalition that sustained the Dems for about 20 years (with the notable interruption of Eisenhower). A powerful coalition if you have the skill to keep it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,046

    Laying Farage at odds of around 14 / 16 feels very dodgy. That almost feels value on him becoming next leader - e.g. a 10% ish chance seems very fair.

    Also, if we have a scenario where say it's the Lib Dems on 60, Tories on 57 and Reform on 5-10. Or anything similar to that. Farage will be able to say "Make me Tory leader and I'll do a merger - we can be the official opposition - otherwise Ed Davey will be LOTO and the Tories are finished." I just can't see how someone like Priti Patel or Oliver Dowden can make a more convincing argument than that.

    Has there ever been a situation before where it's a close-run thing who is the leader of the opposition? Can it keep changing during the parliament as the parties split and merge?

    The prevalence (on the whole) of the two-party system has usually removed any uncertainty as to which party has the right to be called the ‘Official Opposition’; it is the largest minority party which is prepared, in the event of the resignation of the Government, to assume office

    https://erskinemay.parliament.uk/section/5986/the-official-opposition

    Such as any rules exists it seems as though whichever is numerically higher at any one moment would be the LoTO, and if that changed so would the post holder.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    carnforth said:

    Today's allowance:

    The centre cannot hold

    would have been a much better headline. The fact that the story is about France is implicit from the illustration.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    edited June 27
    Andy_JS said:

    Kemi Badenoch seems like the frontrunner to me.

    What on Earth do people see in her? It’s one of the great political mysteries of modern times, like the July election call, and the real meaning of the Dutch salute.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    Great BBC QT tonight.

    Only saw the first 20 minutes. What happened next?
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,058
    No possibility of Truss then? I'm only half joking.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    CatMan said:

    No possibility of Truss then? I'm only half joking.

    TRUSS
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,036

    CatMan said:

    No possibility of Truss then? I'm only half joking.

    TRUSS
    She belongs to the world now.

    They can keep her….
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,110
    Leon said:

    carnforth said:

    Today's allowance:

    That’s a very clever cover and I’m really glad that the Economist clearly employed human artists to do it
    Why do you think it was human artists?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,036

    carnforth said:

    Today's allowance:

    The centre cannot hold

    would have been a much better headline. The fact that the story is about France is implicit from the illustration.
    “Le centre ne peut pas tenir”.

    Maybe slightly long for a headline, but the economist should assume most readers have some French.
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 964
    A company in the US called Tractor Supplies Co (serves rural America) has backed off from woke policies such DEI and cutting carbon emissions in the face of a threatened boycott by their base. This follows from the boycott of Bud light a which has a devastating impact on the brand.

    https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2024/jun/27/tractor-supply-co-backs-woke-policies-after-backla/
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 964
    CatMan said:

    No possibility of Truss then? I'm only half joking.

    Reform may gain her seat.
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 964

    Would Rishi losing his seat count as a Portillo moment or does the fact we are even discussing that eventuality remove the necessary element of surprise?

    Portillo moment has to be a surprise.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,036
    Nunu5 said:

    Would Rishi losing his seat count as a Portillo moment or does the fact we are even discussing that eventuality remove the necessary element of surprise?

    Portillo moment has to be a surprise.
    Agree. Balls for example. Pre-10pm discussed as Chancellor, then he goes on to lose. It could be a Tory front runner for the leadership or a really weird Labour/LibDem loss. But I’m going for Farage. Farage losing isn’t expected and would shape a narrative like Portillo or Balls did.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,960
    edited June 27
    Nunu5 said:

    A company in the US called Tractor Supplies Co (serves rural America) has backed off from woke policies such DEI and cutting carbon emissions in the face of a threatened boycott by their base. This follows from the boycott of Bud light a which has a devastating impact on the brand.

    https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2024/jun/27/tractor-supply-co-backs-woke-policies-after-backla/

    The Bud Light thing got a bit misreported. It was initially set off due to the trans influencer ad, but what really killed them was their marketing lady on camera (from a meeting that predated this) basically calling of their customers a basket of deplorables.

    It wasn't so much the "woke" that did for them, as much as saying we hate our customers, they are so unsophisticated, yucky, fratty people. We don't want them as customers, we want to get the cool kids to drink our crap piss poor beer.

    Oh the people who actually buy our beer have errhh stopped buying it, and the people we want to buy it, don't buy it.
  • MuesliMuesli Posts: 202
    Should an early contest be forced by whatever rump is left of Tory MPs, then grandee names such as David Davis and even Liam Fox are being floated around as possible caretakers for a couple of years while the party reels from what is likely to be a massive thumping.
    Caretakers sounds about right. The Tories will need someone to unblock the toilets now that Rishi Sunak has flushed their careers down them. They could also get Mark Francois to mop the floors and let Andrew Rosindell try desperately to sweep anything unpleasant under the carpet.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,036

    Nunu5 said:

    A company in the US called Tractor Supplies Co (serves rural America) has backed off from woke policies such DEI and cutting carbon emissions in the face of a threatened boycott by their base. This follows from the boycott of Bud light a which has a devastating impact on the brand.

    https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2024/jun/27/tractor-supply-co-backs-woke-policies-after-backla/

    The Bud Light thing got a bit misreported. It was initially set off due to the trans influencer ad, but what really killed them was their marketing lady on camera (from a meeting that predated this) basically calling of their customers a basket of deplorables.

    It wasn't so much the "woke" that did for them, as much as saying we hate our customers, they are so unsophisticated, yucky, fratty people. We don't want them as customers, we want to get the cool kids to drink our crap piss poor beer.

    Oh the people who actually buy our beer have errhh stopped buying it, and the people we want to buy it, don't buy it.
    Having been forced to drink “Bud Light” in the US, I have to agree that any repeat customers must be unsophisticated. It’s free from the cold tap.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,046
    Nunu5 said:

    Would Rishi losing his seat count as a Portillo moment or does the fact we are even discussing that eventuality remove the necessary element of surprise?

    Portillo moment has to be a surprise.
    Rishi going would still be a surprise for most. And would be so epoch making that a broader definition might need to be included.
  • rjkrjk Posts: 71
    A long leadership election sounds like a reasonably smart move, if only to avoid the need to choose which of the two wings of the Tory part - the Reform-lite one and the Lib Dem-lite one - will get to be in charge.

    If the Tories come out only a few tens of seats ahead of the Lib Dems, and then pick a leader who is strongly identified with either faction, there's a chance that defections (either to the Lib Dems or to Reform, depending on the leader pick) could cause them to lose the status of official opposition. Waiting until everyone has got used to the perks of shadow cabinet life before making a decision might help to hold the party together.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,110
    Nunu5 said:

    A company in the US called Tractor Supplies Co (serves rural America) has backed off from woke policies such DEI and cutting carbon emissions in the face of a threatened boycott by their base. This follows from the boycott of Bud light a which has a devastating impact on the brand.

    https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2024/jun/27/tractor-supply-co-backs-woke-policies-after-backla/

    That's a story?

    BTW, as you probably know the Washington Times was founded - and is still owned today - by the Reverend Moon.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,960
    edited June 27
    biggles said:

    Nunu5 said:

    A company in the US called Tractor Supplies Co (serves rural America) has backed off from woke policies such DEI and cutting carbon emissions in the face of a threatened boycott by their base. This follows from the boycott of Bud light a which has a devastating impact on the brand.

    https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2024/jun/27/tractor-supply-co-backs-woke-policies-after-backla/

    The Bud Light thing got a bit misreported. It was initially set off due to the trans influencer ad, but what really killed them was their marketing lady on camera (from a meeting that predated this) basically calling of their customers a basket of deplorables.

    It wasn't so much the "woke" that did for them, as much as saying we hate our customers, they are so unsophisticated, yucky, fratty people. We don't want them as customers, we want to get the cool kids to drink our crap piss poor beer.

    Oh the people who actually buy our beer have errhh stopped buying it, and the people we want to buy it, don't buy it.
    Having been forced to drink “Bud Light” in the US, I have to agree that any repeat customers must be unsophisticated. It’s free from the cold tap.
    It may well be true. No it is true that all the big beer branded beers are terrible in the US (well they are here now too), still not a great marketing strategy to tell all your customers that they thickos who we don't want anyway. And they have a large customer base.

    Craft beer in the US however, vastly improved in quality and availability over the past 20 years.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,036

    biggles said:

    Nunu5 said:

    A company in the US called Tractor Supplies Co (serves rural America) has backed off from woke policies such DEI and cutting carbon emissions in the face of a threatened boycott by their base. This follows from the boycott of Bud light a which has a devastating impact on the brand.

    https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2024/jun/27/tractor-supply-co-backs-woke-policies-after-backla/

    The Bud Light thing got a bit misreported. It was initially set off due to the trans influencer ad, but what really killed them was their marketing lady on camera (from a meeting that predated this) basically calling of their customers a basket of deplorables.

    It wasn't so much the "woke" that did for them, as much as saying we hate our customers, they are so unsophisticated, yucky, fratty people. We don't want them as customers, we want to get the cool kids to drink our crap piss poor beer.

    Oh the people who actually buy our beer have errhh stopped buying it, and the people we want to buy it, don't buy it.
    Having been forced to drink “Bud Light” in the US, I have to agree that any repeat customers must be unsophisticated. It’s free from the cold tap.
    It may well be true. No it is true that all the big beer branded beers are terrible in the US (well they are here now too), still not a great marketing strategy to tell all your customers that they thickos who we don't want anyway. And they have a large customer base.

    Craft beer in the US however, vastly improved in quality and availability over the past 20 years.
    Yes, you can get a decent pint, just not from one of the main taps. Still no real bitter, and stout/mild will have been mistreated, but they have cracked the rest.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,568
    biggles said:

    carnforth said:

    Today's allowance:

    The centre cannot hold

    would have been a much better headline. The fact that the story is about France is implicit from the illustration.
    “Le centre ne peut pas tenir”.

    Maybe slightly long for a headline, but the economist should assume most readers have some French.
    Tenir's a bit recherche for half-remembered schoolboy french. Per Boris, how about Le centre ne prenez pas un grip?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,540
    kle4 said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Would Rishi losing his seat count as a Portillo moment or does the fact we are even discussing that eventuality remove the necessary element of surprise?

    Portillo moment has to be a surprise.
    Rishi going would still be a surprise for most. And would be so epoch making that a broader definition might need to be included.
    You might have to make do with Jenrick in Newark.
  • MartinVegasMartinVegas Posts: 56
    rcs1000 said:

    Nunu5 said:

    A company in the US called Tractor Supplies Co (serves rural America) has backed off from woke policies such DEI and cutting carbon emissions in the face of a threatened boycott by their base. This follows from the boycott of Bud light a which has a devastating impact on the brand.

    https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2024/jun/27/tractor-supply-co-backs-woke-policies-after-backla/

    That's a story?

    BTW, as you probably know the Washington Times was founded - and is still owned today - by the Reverend Moon.
    This is the statement from TSC
    https://corporate.tractorsupply.com/newsroom/news-releases/news-releases-details/2024/Tractor-Supply-Company-Statement/default.aspx

    Much as I despise the moonies, in this case it's not misreporting what's happened.

    As for TSC. They're a sort of B&Q/Go Outdoors hybrid with locations mainly outside of metro areas. Currying favour with their redneck customers by pivoting away from climate friendly behaviour may be a short term boost to their profits over long term keeping their local communities viable. Or maybe they see the way the wind is literally blowing across rural America and figure climate change will lead to more tornadoes/hurricanes and thus more replacement equipment and house building supplies to be sold to the morons.

    Either way, I ain't shopping there no more.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,577
    It's the first Trump v Biden debate soon.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,540

    It's the first Trump v Biden debate soon.

    I'll give it a miss I think.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    There can be no such thing as a caretaker leader unless the vast majority of Tory MPs agree to give them a coronation. So more sensible for Sunak to stay as leader for a few months to allow a period of reflection and senior candidates to set out their stalls at the party conference before Tory MPs narrow them down to 2 to go to the membership
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    rjk said:

    A long leadership election sounds like a reasonably smart move, if only to avoid the need to choose which of the two wings of the Tory part - the Reform-lite one and the Lib Dem-lite one - will get to be in charge.

    If the Tories come out only a few tens of seats ahead of the Lib Dems, and then pick a leader who is strongly identified with either faction, there's a chance that defections (either to the Lib Dems or to Reform, depending on the leader pick) could cause them to lose the status of official opposition. Waiting until everyone has got used to the perks of shadow cabinet life before making a decision might help to hold the party together.

    Which is why Steve Barclay, James Cleverly or even David Davis would be good choices as they can bring on board both wings without being too strongly in either camp
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    edited June 28
    biggles said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Would Rishi losing his seat count as a Portillo moment or does the fact we are even discussing that eventuality remove the necessary element of surprise?

    Portillo moment has to be a surprise.
    Agree. Balls for example. Pre-10pm discussed as Chancellor, then he goes on to lose. It could be a Tory front runner for the leadership or a really weird Labour/LibDem loss. But I’m going for Farage. Farage losing isn’t expected and would shape a narrative like Portillo or Balls did.
    Farage doesn't yet have a seat to lose so doesn't count. He likely wins Clacton comfortably anyway.

    Hunt losing as Chancellor in Godalming and Ash the most likely Portillo moment
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,960
    Your 5 min warning...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    Trump and Biden now both at their lecterns and the debate has begun
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,577
    Biden looks and sounds older than ever.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,960
    edited June 28
    Biden going son of a toolmaker straight out the gate....
  • Tim_in_RuislipTim_in_Ruislip Posts: 435
    edited June 28
    46 vs 45

    Truly absurd.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,846
    HYUFD said:

    Trump and Biden now both at their lecterns and the debate has begun

    Debate can be downstreamed here among other places
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qqG96G8YdcE
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,960
    edited June 28

    Biden looks and sounds older than ever.

    In recent history he has been pumped up for these big occasions, he doesn't seem so tonight. He isn't making much sense.
  • Tim_in_RuislipTim_in_Ruislip Posts: 435
    Biden mumbling....
  • Tim_in_RuislipTim_in_Ruislip Posts: 435
    Is he ok?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,960
    edited June 28
    Biden - nobody thinks US has the greatest economy in the world...hmmm....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,960
    edited June 28
    Vvvvvvchina....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,960
    edited June 28
    Trump is actually on grown up mode. Still talking crap, but isn't (yet) doing the lock him up and screaming at the moon.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,960
    Has Biden frozen?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,960
    CNN / YouTube not messing around with terminating the restreamer commentators. They are getting ban hammered
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,638
    I can't bear watching this debate
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,960
    And Trump is now on Trump mode.....that lasted one question.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,960
    edited June 28
    Eabhal said:

    I can't bear watching this debate

    Come back Sunak and Starmer.....

    China must be watching this and pissing themselves. Winnie the pooh, I am supposed to be worried about these two tw@ts.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,960
    LOL, Biden another clanger, I beat Medicare....Trump, yeah you beat it to death.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,577
    I don't see how Biden can last 90 minutes, let alone 4 more years.
  • MPartridgeMPartridge Posts: 174
    Jesus, Biden is struggling.

    If this continues for the whole debate it is game over for him.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,960

    I don't see how Biden can last 90 minutes, let alone 4 more years.

    He looks and sounds awful. He genuinely looks confused, as if he has just been woken up and driven from the care home and wondering where the hell he is.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,638
    edited June 28

    Eabhal said:

    I can't bear watching this debate

    Come back Sunak and Starmer.....

    China must be watching this and pissing themselves. I am supposed to be worried about these two tw@ts.
    At least Biden evidently has some sensible people around him. You don't get that sense with Sunak.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,960
    edited June 28
    Is this the only debate, because Trump is absolutely beating Biden up.

    Trump is talking a lot of nonsense, but he sounds like he is alive and functioning. Biden just keeps freezing.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,960
    edited June 28
    Trump is getting more Trumpian every question. He will be doing lock him up and WRRRONNNNG by question 10.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    edited June 28

    Is this the only debate, because Trump is absolutely beating Biden up.

    Trump is talking a lot of nonsense, but he sounds like he is alive and functioning. Biden just keeps freezing.

    Trump is rambling all over the place, Biden is slow and sometimes losing his point, so far both the worst debaters in Presidential history.

    If Biden comes out with a draw though that would be better than the last 2 Presidents, both Bush and Obama lost their first debates to Kerry and Romney respectively
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,638
    This format actually suits Trump. He can do his stream of consciousness thing which compares favourably to Biden trailing off into nothing.

    Oh dear.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,960
    edited June 28
    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    I can't bear watching this debate

    Come back Sunak and Starmer.....

    China must be watching this and pissing themselves. I am supposed to be worried about these two tw@ts.
    At least Biden evidently has some sensible people around him. You don't get that sense with Sunak.
    To be fair, before the campaign, I think Sunak government was functioning ok on a day to day basis. I didn't get the feel it was like Boris / Cummings. So I presume there were some reasonable people working there. No real vision from Sunak or Hunt, but we had stopped Boris trolleyling.

    What has happened with the campaign, well that's a different kettle of fish.
This discussion has been closed.