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What’s this market going to look like tomorrow morning? – politicalbetting.com

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  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085

    With such voter volatility, the pressure on Labour to deliver in the next 5 years is going to be massive. Could throw up a few interesting policies / reforms / points of contention, as inevitably they need to go to the country with a half decent record sell

    ‘Voter volatility’ is the latest sop the tories are spinning to avoid having to confront the reality.

    It’s a sea-change. It happens. Work out why and then fix it.
  • PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 583
    edited June 2024
    So I was big green on ‘Reform 7 or more’, Reform 3-4, and Reform 5-6, and then sold off a bunch after Putingate - thought I’d make a nice profit either way and so was a good time to trade out some.

    Now we’re getting MRPs showing Reform on 19 with EC, and then on 22 with YouGov!

    Not sure what the play is now. I haven’t lost much by going early, and I’ve still got a long shot Reform ‘most seats without Labour’ - also on the Lib Dems here - if either happens I’m in dreamland.

    Maybe the real value is making small punts on Reform coming through the middle in random constituencies at long odds? I believe Reform/Lib Dems will win a couple of random constituencies at long odds on low percentages.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,219
    algarkirk said:

    Not a travesty. Everyone knows our rules. To come first in 440 seats is open to all comers on the same terms and means you have done tons better than all the rest.

    The right wing split vote is more than about maths. It's about the failure of the centre right to operate well within our system. This involves a massive lack of leadership. Other systems are available. This one has great merits.
    I am an FPTP defender and I would vote to retain it.

    But I do think a result like that would absolutely be the death sentence for FPTP. The only question would be the timing.

    It would cut through into our national discourse in a very big way.




  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,787
    AlsoLei said:

    I took an impromptu day off yesterday, and walked the north Kent coast - 30km from Broadstairs to Whitstable.

    Passing through three constituencies: East Thanet (notional 2019 Con maj. 7,690), Herne Bay and Sandwich (notional 2019 Con maj. 20,218), and Canterbury (2019 Lab maj. 2,165). You'd expect all three to be a straight Tory/Labour fight, with the Greens nowhere.

    But I saw as many Green posters as Labour - concentrated in the hipster part of Margate's old town and the terraced bit of Whitstable.



    And there were no Tory or Refuk placards or posters to be seen anywhere, not even in places like Birchington which was covered in Tory placards in 2019.

    There's definitely a bit of a Green surge happening, but I'm not sure that the party is going to be able to do much to take advantage.
    It's almost like somebody wrote an article about how Green are the only party in the utopia space, and about how that is both electorally attractive and dangerous

    https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/05/12/solarpunk/
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,100

    Am I the only one already shitting themselves over the exit poll, even though it's a week away?

    No, I'm fearing a big disappointment on the other side. Irrational but undeniable.
  • Nope.

    I may end up in the poor house.

    I am cursing the moment I ever became addicted to the spreads.
    Didn't realise that bringing back workhouses is in the Reform manifesto?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    Is that a Labour Party broadcast. Might as well be.

    What the beret and Poirot Moustache are about defeats me though.
    The way it is shot she also has the look of a French silver screen actress, circa 1960.
  • Why would they though? They know the election is lost, switching their vote is not going to change that. They presumably like what Reform are selling or they wouldn't say Ref in a poll survey.

    No, the only late switchers the Tories are likely to get are those who have drifted to LD, Labour or Green because they are totally pissed off with the government. Some of those will drift back to try to keep the Tories ahead of Reform.
    Fair enough. Let's see what happens with the numbers after the election. One thing is for sure the so called Reform voter is not really going say who they actually vote for.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,202
    The Conservatives really do seem to be doing Angela Rayner’s PR

    https://x.com/conservatives/status/1806291306064339155
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,100
    edited June 2024

    You're worried? Think how young Sandpit is feeling.
    I'd like to see the Tories obliterated but am happy to give Sandpit one Con seat, after a recount.

    On reflection that would be SO funny - Leon missing out on £10k by one seat, a few dozen votes maybe.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,219
    edited June 2024

    Am I the only one already shitting themselves over the exit poll, even though it's a week away?

    On the contrary I await it with utter fascination.

    I know Labour will be running things for the next 5 years, that’s not interesting anymore. The really compelling thing is what those seat totals look like for everyone else.
  • And if they are a Tory voter at heart they will vote Tory because no matter how much they dislike the conservatives. The dislike Labour even more. That is for sure.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,221
    Pulpstar said:

    I've largely not bet, except a 1-7 Wolverhampton West punt this election. I do recall some - Sandpit, Casino Royale and a few others (Was it you) suggesting a buy on the Tories when the spreads opened though. Have you bought the Tories :D ?
    I am slightly more positive than Alastair's expectation but not by much, I went for 120 seats at the start of May as a prediction assuming an autumn election.

    I think it is touch and go if the Tories hit 100+ seats
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,957

    It's been said many times though that some of that is tactical. I would vote Labour in a PR-world but as we have FPTP I am going to vote LD as the only hope of defeating the incumbent Tory in my constituency. I am sure the boost and LD numbers reflects a lot of people doing the same.
    Yes, it's a great shame that Starmer has ruled out reforming the voting system...

    We all have to go by guesswork and the contradictory tactical voting sites.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085


    Apols if already mentioned x
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,100

    Fair enough. Let's see what happens with the numbers after the election. One thing is for sure the so called Reform voter is not really going say who they actually vote for.
    I see no reason why your 'one thing for sure' is likely to be true at all.
  • LloydBanksLloydBanks Posts: 45

    The Conservatives really do seem to be doing Angela Rayner’s PR

    https://x.com/conservatives/status/1806291306064339155

    That's the worst one since they stylised Starter to make him look like Stakhanov. I honestly think 9 out of 10 people watching that would assume it was an ad by Angela Rayner
  • Taz said:

    Nice one.
    Excellent!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,926

    The Conservatives really do seem to be doing Angela Rayner’s PR

    https://x.com/conservatives/status/1806291306064339155

    They really are crap at this aren't they.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,530

    So I was big green on ‘Reform 7 or more’, Reform 3-4, and Reform 5-6, and then sold off a bunch after Putingate - thought I’d make a nice profit either way and so was a good time to trade out some.

    Now we’re getting MRPs showing Reform on 19 with EC, and then on 22 with YouGov!

    Not sure what the play is now. I haven’t lost much by going early, and I’ve still got a long shot Reform ‘most seats without Labour’ - also on the Lib Dems here - if either happens I’m in dreamland.

    Maybe the real value is making small punts on Reform coming through the middle in random constituencies at long odds? I believe Reform/Lib Dems will win a couple of random constituencies at long odds on low percentages.

    The play now is to sell Con.

    The one consistent theme of the campaign has been that every time you think it can't get worse for them, it does.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,241
    edited June 2024
    MattW said:

    What sort of placards are being seen in the internal or boundary areas of newly established Low Traffic Neighbourhoods?

    (Working on perceptions and local politics, ignoring the reality that anybody on an estated built since perhaps 1960 is in one already.)

    Oxford East: I'm told there are posters supporting the anti-LTN Independent (David Henwood) in some of the Cowley Road shops, but that it's mostly the three parties you'd expect (Labour, LibDem, Green) - all of whom are broadly pro-LTN - plus a few for the Corbynite/Gaza indy.

    The LTN issue doesn't appear to have crossed through from the locals and Henwood is flailing a bit, putting out a completely incoherent statement attacking Labour yesterday that even his chums at the Oxford Mail haven't deigned to cover.
  • The play now is to sell Con.

    The one consistent theme of the campaign has been that every time you think it can't get worse for them, it does.
    The play is do your own research and use your gut instinct as these polls are bullshit.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,219

    No, I'm fearing a big disappointment on the other side. Irrational but undeniable.
    If it comes out at something like L385/C170/LD50/SNP20, whilst a historically bad result for the Tories it is going to be a real anti climax!
  • ukelectukelect Posts: 140

    Baxtered.

    Lab 440.
    Con 56.
    Libdem 82.
    Reform 22.
    Green 4.

    A lot is going to depend on whether the Tory/Reform split is even or not in each constituency or wholesale tactical voting takes place
    Just for a somewhat divergent forecast, UK-Elect on its default settings (and taking some account of tactical voting) would translate those GB vote figures into Lab 365 Con 141 LibDem 69 ReformUk 8 Green 3 (and SNP 41 if it wasn't using separate Scotland percentages)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,333

    Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (24-25 June)

    Lab: 36% (-1 from 19-20 Jun)
    Con: 18% (-1)
    Reform UK: 17% (-1)
    Lib Dem: 15% (+2)
    Green: 8% (+2)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    The Sunak v Starmer debate yesterday will have squeezed the minor parties towards the big 2 again
  • I see no reason why your 'one thing for sure' is likely to be true at all.
    Of course not. So put your money where your mouth is.
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 928
    edited June 2024
    ClippP said:

    Yes, it's a great shame that Starmer has ruled out reforming the voting system...

    We all have to go by guesswork and the contradictory tactical voting sites.
    I think this would be the lowest vote share for a new gov with a maj for decades - ever maybe? Oct 74 obv most recent benchmark.

    Also has anyone done what the HoC would be if Con+ Ref was one party and no votes leak elsewhere?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,051
    viewcode said:

    LibDem bets:

    Carshalton & Wallington
    North East Fife
    Wimbledon
    Sheffield Hallam
    South Cambridgeshire
    Cheltenham
    Mid Dunbartonshire
    Cheadle
    Eastbourne
    Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c133p016pg4o

    Also Winchester. I'm surprised it isn't LibDem already, being posh as f***

    It would probably have gone last time, but too many people were worried about Corbyn - so Steve Brine clung on.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,100
    MattW said:

    What do PBrs think is a possible final vote % for Reform - about where they are, or how much lower?

    About where they are imo.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,221

    NEW THREAD

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,926

    Do we know that will actually hurt him?
    It will slightly, but won't cause them to lose any seats I imagine.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,333
    edited June 2024
    Heathener said:



    Apols if already mentioned x

    And a large number of those 3 million will have been undecided or wavering voters, who will vote but had not yet made up their mind.

    If you were already decided as Tory or Labour or Reform you would be watching the football unless a politics geek
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,100
    edited June 2024
    Moved to new thread
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,138
    Midway through this downhill plummet, Britain bumbled backward out of the European Union. The wreckage of this four-year disaster can now best be seen as an attempt to escape the harsh bite of austerity. Brexit was a retreat from hunger into myth: an embrace of antique fables about British pluck and derring-do, a belief that even without an empire and an industrial base this archipelago might reclaim past glory. Faced with profound turmoil, much of the nation turned to a half-remembered falsehood about their grandfather’s generation, marching along with Churchill. This election is the reckoning Brexit postponed.

    https://newrepublic.com/article/182987/british-election-reckoning-brexit-postponed
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,970

    "The second and third Covid lockdowns were the biggest ever mistake made by a British government in peacetime, Nigel Farage has said."

    The Reform UK leader is speaking to 1,000 people at the Rainton Arena. [In Sunderland]

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/27/general-election-live-sunak-starmer-farage/

    I completely agree with him on that and so do many many people I know - of all political persuasions. If only he’d said that instead of his horrible Putin piffle reform would probably now be on 25% and the Tories on 13%
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399
    HYUFD said:

    And a large number of those 3 million will have been undecided or wavering voters, who will vote but had not yet made up their mind.

    If you were already Tory or Labour or Reform you would be watching the football unless a politics geek
    Will there - I really don't think so but I will let you continue to hold on to that hope.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,051

    The Conservatives really do seem to be doing Angela Rayner’s PR

    https://x.com/conservatives/status/1806291306064339155

    WTF?
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399

    If it comes out at something like L385/C170/LD50/SNP20, whilst a historically bad result for the Tories it is going to be a real anti climax!
    The election would be an anti-climax but the election night given what we expect at the moment would be a massive surprise..
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,051
    Pulpstar said:

    I've largely not bet, except a 1-7 Wolverhampton West punt this election. I do recall some - Sandpit, Casino Royale and a few others (Was it you) suggesting a buy on the Tories when the spreads opened though. Have you bought the Tories :D ?
    God no, I don't recall ever recommending a buy on the Tories on the spreads.

    I did say I thought there was value in the 150-200 seats band, and placed a bet accordingly though.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,333

    You didn't have to use all 6 votes. And those Plaid votes could have cost Tory candidates their seats.
    Always "plump" for your own party.
    No, always use every vote and vote in every election, I put supporting democracy first even more than my party!
  • It's been said many times though that some of that is tactical. I would vote Labour in a PR-world but as we have FPTP I am going to vote LD as the only hope of defeating the incumbent Tory in my constituency. I am sure the boost and LD numbers reflects a lot of people doing the same.
    If it makes you feel better, I'm an LD party member but will be voting tactically Labour as the best hope of ousting our Tory.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,119
    pop

    Labour drifting down as expected as we approach the day. Was always going to happen.

    What has NOT happened is any drift up for the Tories - its gone down too!

    Either the polls are massively wrong, and Reform is hugely overstated, or we about to see something extraordinary. If this was the result, and Labour achieved a huge majority on that basis, I can see Labour doing absolutely nothing about the voting system, with the exception of lowering the age to 16 year olds up. Why change if the system works for you? But generally getting a third of the voters should not imply a massive vote of confidence!
    One possible scenario is that a lot of the Reform voters don't bother to vote, or only ever existed in the online panel. If we imagine half of them sitting on their hands, and recalculate the percentages (e.g. LAB = 36/91.5 = 39) then we get these shares.

    CON 20%
    LAB 39%
    LDM 16%
    GRN 9%
    RFM 9%

    Labour rarely outperform their polling, but this is a not implausible way in which they might do so this time.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085

    I think this would be the lowest vote share for a new gov with a maj for decades - ever maybe? Oct 74 obv most recent benchmark.

    Also has anyone done what the HoC would be if Con+ Ref was one party and no votes leak elsewhere?
    2005 Tony Blair won a c. 45 seat majority on 35.2%
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110

    WTF?
    It is really one of the dumbest things I’ve seen from the Cons.

    It’s totally over.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,286
    New thread.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,861

    Brexit party voters voted for that party in the local elections and switched to Tory in the General election irrespective of who they said they would vote for before the GE. Why not do it again?

    Reform didn't contest the last set of local elections, so the question is how many people who voted Tory in the locals will vote Reform now. The Tories will under-perform on their local election results.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,130
    HYUFD said:

    The Sunak v Starmer debate yesterday will have squeezed the minor parties towards the big 2 again
    My guess is the opposite. Voters have decided how they will tactically vote and this is it.

    However as is traditional on PB the Gold Standard has been Comm Res which I believe is now Savanta. Therefore I'm going with

    Savanta

    21% Tory
    42% Lab
    10% LD
    3% SNP
    5% GN
    14% Farage
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    Of course not. So put your money where your mouth is.
    I'm sure he has. Ben is a political bettor. You just seem to be a gobshite.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    edited June 2024
    @Benpointer Quote
    This is the most boring campaign and yet at the same time the most exciting election of my lifetime
    Exactly.

    That’s the point I was trying to suggest to @Richard_Tyndall earlier.

    Tho’ I do think Nigel Farage’s entrance on top of the hilarity of Sunak’s campaign has added a lot of fun providing you’re not a Cons party worker.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399
    Roger said:

    My guess is the opposite. Voters have decided how they will tactically vote and this is it.

    However as is traditional on PB the Gold Standard has been Comm Res which I believe is now Savanta. Therefore I'm going with

    Savanta

    21% Tory
    42% Lab
    10% LD
    3% SNP
    5% GN
    14% Farage
    Got to say that feels about right...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,333

    And Bromley?
    More likely to stay Tory than Beckenham which now includes Penge from Lewisham and will almost certainly go Labour (my sister lives there)
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,150

    WTF?
    That's the only sane response, isn't it?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    edited June 2024
    HYUFD said:

    And a large number of those 3 million will have been undecided or wavering voters, who will vote but had not yet made up their mind.

    If you were already decided as Tory or Labour or Reform you would be watching the football unless a politics geek
    Evidence please?

    How do you know that they are not the party faithful or political nerds?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,130
    Heathener said:



    Apols if already mentioned x

    And they were playing their second team
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    I think I saw someone on here saying the best ever Green % was in the Region of 4.4% so current 7 to 8 looks high.

    Need to factor in that they are standing in a lot more seats this time as well as the both main Parties are the same factor.

    I reckon 7 - 8% looks reasonable but DYOR
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,196
    MattW said:

    What do PBrs think is a possible final vote % for Reform - about where they are, or how much lower?

    I think where they are now. All the possible factors including Farage trying to sabotage his own campaign seem to be priced in on the 15-18% range. I think most voters have made up their minds now even if they are saying don't know.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085

    I think I saw someone on here saying the best ever Green % was in the Region of 4.4% so current 7 to 8 looks high.

    Need to factor in that they are standing in a lot more seats this time as well as the both main Parties are the same factor.

    I reckon 7 - 8% looks reasonable but DYOR

    3.8% I believe is their highest in a GE
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,333
    Heathener said:

    Evidence please?

    How do you know that they are not the party faithful or political nerds?
    For starters 3 million is almost 10 times the combined membership of the Tory and Labour parties
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,787

    Didn't realise that bringing back workhouses is in the Reform manifesto?
    Second-term aspiration.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,841

    @Leon was mocked mercilessly, not least by me, months ago for claiming he might vote Starmer. Yet he is voting Starmer. So I guess I was wrong.

    Even he doesn’t know, until the pen is hovering over the paper. Remember the referendum….
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,119
    MattW said:

    What do PBrs think is a possible final vote % for Reform - about where they are, or how much lower?

    My prediction for RFM was 9%.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,841
    edited June 2024
    Carnyx said:

    Hang on, aren't the ballot papers put into a second envelope which is only opened on the night? So checking the signature shouldn't reveal the vote anyway?
    The verification process also cross-checks the serial number on the back of the ballot paper matches the one that the voter was sent. So everything is opened and checked at verification stage. Once this is done, the ballot paper is separated from all the supporting paperwork and dropped into a ballot box, ready to be mixed in with the papers from the polling station, once these latter have been verified at the main count.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,119

    I am an FPTP defender and I would vote to retain it.

    But I do think a result like that would absolutely be the death sentence for FPTP. The only question would be the timing.

    It would cut through into our national discourse in a very big way.
    I don't think the national numbers matter - the local ones do. That's the whole point of FPTP, and what might damage it.

    If a lot of voters experience their MP being elected on under a third of the vote, with more than two-thirds preferring someone else, then that may do a lot more damage than somewhat esoteric national numbers.

    At the moment an overwhelming majority of MPs are elected on more than 40% of the vote, so FPTP doesn't look too bad in each individual seat.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    Since the highest Green vote in a GE is 3.8% I believe (2.7% last time), 8% would seem unlikely.
    They are standing in an extra 100 seats 574 compared to 470 in 2019 I think. i believe Greens will comfortably beat their best ever
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    You're worried? Think how young Sandpit is feeling.
    Even I learned my lesson about spreads (after buying Tory seats in 2017).
This discussion has been closed.