Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

What’s this market going to look like tomorrow morning? – politicalbetting.com

123457»

Comments

  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    With such voter volatility, the pressure on Labour to deliver in the next 5 years is going to be massive. Could throw up a few interesting policies / reforms / points of contention, as inevitably they need to go to the country with a half decent record sell

    ‘Voter volatility’ is the latest sop the tories are spinning to avoid having to confront the reality.

    It’s a sea-change. It happens. Work out why and then fix it.
  • PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 578
    edited June 27
    So I was big green on ‘Reform 7 or more’, Reform 3-4, and Reform 5-6, and then sold off a bunch after Putingate - thought I’d make a nice profit either way and so was a good time to trade out some.

    Now we’re getting MRPs showing Reform on 19 with EC, and then on 22 with YouGov!

    Not sure what the play is now. I haven’t lost much by going early, and I’ve still got a long shot Reform ‘most seats without Labour’ - also on the Lib Dems here - if either happens I’m in dreamland.

    Maybe the real value is making small punts on Reform coming through the middle in random constituencies at long odds? I believe Reform/Lib Dems will win a couple of random constituencies at long odds on low percentages.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,738
    algarkirk said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Pulpstar said:

    New Yougov just dropped. No love for Labour it seems but things are starting to look REALLY dire for the Tories


    LAB: 36% (-1)
    CON: 18% (-1)
    REF: 17% (-1)
    LDEM: 15% (+2)
    GRN: 8% (+2)

    Astonishing numbers. ElCalced, that gives:

    LAB: 440
    CON: 56
    REF: 22
    LD: 82
    GRN: 4

    A travesty of democracy if so, as (setting aside Nats and NI) the 59% left-leaning LLG vote would get 526 seats, where the 35% REF/CON right-leaning vote would get just 78. I say this as a person broadly Of The Left (as I am moreso a person Of Democracy).
    Not a travesty. Everyone knows our rules. To come first in 440 seats is open to all comers on the same terms and means you have done tons better than all the rest.

    The right wing split vote is more than about maths. It's about the failure of the centre right to operate well within our system. This involves a massive lack of leadership. Other systems are available. This one has great merits.
    I am an FPTP defender and I would vote to retain it.

    But I do think a result like that would absolutely be the death sentence for FPTP. The only question would be the timing.

    It would cut through into our national discourse in a very big way.




  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,758
    AlsoLei said:

    TimS said:

    Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (24-25 June)

    Lab: 36% (-1 from 19-20 Jun)
    Con: 18% (-1)
    Reform UK: 17% (-1)
    Lib Dem: 15% (+2)
    Green: 8% (+2)
    SNP: 3% (=)


    https://x.com/yougov/status/1806283514288988386?s=61&t=c6bcp0cjChLfQN5Tc8A_6g

    Even down at 36% that's still a 230 majority. LDs also the OO on that poll, even if CorRef merge...

    Con 56, Lab 440, LD 82, Ref 22, Green 4, SNP 23, PC 4, Others 19
    I'm still scratching my head at the ludicrous Green shares some pollsters persist in publishing. And this one is up two. Something is happening with the Green party. It's odd, they've had virtually no coverage yet there they are.

    LLG is up 3 and RefCon down 2 in that poll. LLG 59, RefCon 35. So despite looking very different from other pollsters on individual parties it's bang on average on a left vs right basis.
    I took an impromptu day off yesterday, and walked the north Kent coast - 30km from Broadstairs to Whitstable.

    Passing through three constituencies: East Thanet (notional 2019 Con maj. 7,690), Herne Bay and Sandwich (notional 2019 Con maj. 20,218), and Canterbury (2019 Lab maj. 2,165). You'd expect all three to be a straight Tory/Labour fight, with the Greens nowhere.

    But I saw as many Green posters as Labour - concentrated in the hipster part of Margate's old town and the terraced bit of Whitstable.



    And there were no Tory or Refuk placards or posters to be seen anywhere, not even in places like Birchington which was covered in Tory placards in 2019.

    There's definitely a bit of a Green surge happening, but I'm not sure that the party is going to be able to do much to take advantage.
    It's almost like somebody wrote an article about how Green are the only party in the utopia space, and about how that is both electorally attractive and dangerous

    https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/05/12/solarpunk/
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,565

    Am I the only one already shitting themselves over the exit poll, even though it's a week away?

    No, I'm fearing a big disappointment on the other side. Irrational but undeniable.
  • Am I the only one already shitting themselves over the exit poll, even though it's a week away?

    Nope.

    I may end up in the poor house.

    I am cursing the moment I ever became addicted to the spreads.
    Didn't realise that bringing back workhouses is in the Reform manifesto?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,409

    TimS said:

    The latest CCHQ attack ad that ends up making Angela and her policies look good.

    https://x.com/Conservatives/status/1806291306064339155

    Possibly the biggest fail of their campaign, these social media ads.

    Is that a Labour Party broadcast. Might as well be.

    What the beret and Poirot Moustache are about defeats me though.
    The way it is shot she also has the look of a French silver screen actress, circa 1960.
  • Pulpstar said:

    New Yougov just dropped. No love for Labour it seems but things are starting to look REALLY dire for the Tories


    LAB: 36% (-1)
    CON: 18% (-1)
    REF: 17% (-1)
    LDEM: 15% (+2)
    GRN: 8% (+2)

    Baxtered.

    Lab 440.
    Con 56.
    Libdem 82.
    Reform 22.
    Green 4.

    A lot is going to depend on whether the Tory/Reform split is even or not in each constituency or wholesale tactical voting takes place
    I'm going to die laughing if this is where we end up on 5th July.
    Or the majority of Reform voters will switch to Tory. Highly likely.
    Why would they though? They know the election is lost, switching their vote is not going to change that. They presumably like what Reform are selling or they wouldn't say Ref in a poll survey.

    No, the only late switchers the Tories are likely to get are those who have drifted to LD, Labour or Green because they are totally pissed off with the government. Some of those will drift back to try to keep the Tories ahead of Reform.
    Fair enough. Let's see what happens with the numbers after the election. One thing is for sure the so called Reform voter is not really going say who they actually vote for.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,278
    The Conservatives really do seem to be doing Angela Rayner’s PR

    https://x.com/conservatives/status/1806291306064339155
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,565
    edited June 27

    Am I the only one already shitting themselves over the exit poll, even though it's a week away?

    Nope.

    I may end up in the poor house.

    I am cursing the moment I ever became addicted to the spreads.
    You're worried? Think how young Sandpit is feeling.
    I'd like to see the Tories obliterated but am happy to give Sandpit one Con seat, after a recount.

    On reflection that would be SO funny - Leon missing out on £10k by one seat, a few dozen votes maybe.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,738
    edited June 27

    Am I the only one already shitting themselves over the exit poll, even though it's a week away?

    On the contrary I await it with utter fascination.

    I know Labour will be running things for the next 5 years, that’s not interesting anymore. The really compelling thing is what those seat totals look like for everyone else.
  • And if they are a Tory voter at heart they will vote Tory because no matter how much they dislike the conservatives. The dislike Labour even more. That is for sure.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,273
    Pulpstar said:

    Am I the only one already shitting themselves over the exit poll, even though it's a week away?

    Nope.

    I may end up in the poor house.

    I am cursing the moment I ever became addicted to the spreads.
    I've largely not bet, except a 1-7 Wolverhampton West punt this election. I do recall some - Sandpit, Casino Royale and a few others (Was it you) suggesting a buy on the Tories when the spreads opened though. Have you bought the Tories :D ?
    I am slightly more positive than Alastair's expectation but not by much, I went for 120 seats at the start of May as a prediction assuming an autumn election.

    I think it is touch and go if the Tories hit 100+ seats
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,889

    Pulpstar said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Pulpstar said:

    New Yougov just dropped. No love for Labour it seems but things are starting to look REALLY dire for the Tories


    LAB: 36% (-1)
    CON: 18% (-1)
    REF: 17% (-1)
    LDEM: 15% (+2)
    GRN: 8% (+2)

    Astonishing numbers. ElCalced, that gives:

    LAB: 440
    CON: 56
    REF: 22
    LD: 82
    GRN: 4

    A travesty of democracy if so, as (setting aside Nats and NI) the 59% left-leaning LLG vote would get 526 seats, where the 35% REF/CON right-leaning vote would get just 78. I say this as a person broadly Of The Left (as I am moreso a person Of Democracy).
    I don't think Labour entering government on 36% is particularly good for them though. Even though the majority will be bigger than Blair's it's nowhere near a 1997 position. More like starting in 2003 or some such.
    It's been said many times though that some of that is tactical. I would vote Labour in a PR-world but as we have FPTP I am going to vote LD as the only hope of defeating the incumbent Tory in my constituency. I am sure the boost and LD numbers reflects a lot of people doing the same.
    Yes, it's a great shame that Starmer has ruled out reforming the voting system...

    We all have to go by guesswork and the contradictory tactical voting sites.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084


    Apols if already mentioned x
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,565

    Pulpstar said:

    New Yougov just dropped. No love for Labour it seems but things are starting to look REALLY dire for the Tories


    LAB: 36% (-1)
    CON: 18% (-1)
    REF: 17% (-1)
    LDEM: 15% (+2)
    GRN: 8% (+2)

    Baxtered.

    Lab 440.
    Con 56.
    Libdem 82.
    Reform 22.
    Green 4.

    A lot is going to depend on whether the Tory/Reform split is even or not in each constituency or wholesale tactical voting takes place
    I'm going to die laughing if this is where we end up on 5th July.
    Or the majority of Reform voters will switch to Tory. Highly likely.
    Why would they though? They know the election is lost, switching their vote is not going to change that. They presumably like what Reform are selling or they wouldn't say Ref in a poll survey.

    No, the only late switchers the Tories are likely to get are those who have drifted to LD, Labour or Green because they are totally pissed off with the government. Some of those will drift back to try to keep the Tories ahead of Reform.
    Fair enough. Let's see what happens with the numbers after the election. One thing is for sure the so called Reform voter is not really going say who they actually vote for.
    I see no reason why your 'one thing for sure' is likely to be true at all.
  • LloydBanksLloydBanks Posts: 45

    The Conservatives really do seem to be doing Angela Rayner’s PR

    https://x.com/conservatives/status/1806291306064339155

    That's the worst one since they stylised Starter to make him look like Stakhanov. I honestly think 9 out of 10 people watching that would assume it was an ad by Angela Rayner
  • Taz said:

    Confirmation from my eldest that they've been awarded a First Class Degree in English from Sheffield Hallam.

    Proud dad

    Nice one.
    Excellent!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,106

    The Conservatives really do seem to be doing Angela Rayner’s PR

    https://x.com/conservatives/status/1806291306064339155

    They really are crap at this aren't they.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,280

    So I was big green on ‘Reform 7 or more’, Reform 3-4, and Reform 5-6, and then sold off a bunch after Putingate - thought I’d make a nice profit either way and so was a good time to trade out some.

    Now we’re getting MRPs showing Reform on 19 with EC, and then on 22 with YouGov!

    Not sure what the play is now. I haven’t lost much by going early, and I’ve still got a long shot Reform ‘most seats without Labour’ - also on the Lib Dems here - if either happens I’m in dreamland.

    Maybe the real value is making small punts on Reform coming through the middle in random constituencies at long odds? I believe Reform/Lib Dems will win a couple of random constituencies at long odds on low percentages.

    The play now is to sell Con.

    The one consistent theme of the campaign has been that every time you think it can't get worse for them, it does.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,238
    edited June 27
    MattW said:

    What sort of placards are being seen in the internal or boundary areas of newly established Low Traffic Neighbourhoods?

    (Working on perceptions and local politics, ignoring the reality that anybody on an estated built since perhaps 1960 is in one already.)

    Oxford East: I'm told there are posters supporting the anti-LTN Independent (David Henwood) in some of the Cowley Road shops, but that it's mostly the three parties you'd expect (Labour, LibDem, Green) - all of whom are broadly pro-LTN - plus a few for the Corbynite/Gaza indy.

    The LTN issue doesn't appear to have crossed through from the locals and Henwood is flailing a bit, putting out a completely incoherent statement attacking Labour yesterday that even his chums at the Oxford Mail haven't deigned to cover.
  • So I was big green on ‘Reform 7 or more’, Reform 3-4, and Reform 5-6, and then sold off a bunch after Putingate - thought I’d make a nice profit either way and so was a good time to trade out some.

    Now we’re getting MRPs showing Reform on 19 with EC, and then on 22 with YouGov!

    Not sure what the play is now. I haven’t lost much by going early, and I’ve still got a long shot Reform ‘most seats without Labour’ - also on the Lib Dems here - if either happens I’m in dreamland.

    Maybe the real value is making small punts on Reform coming through the middle in random constituencies at long odds? I believe Reform/Lib Dems will win a couple of random constituencies at long odds on low percentages.

    The play now is to sell Con.

    The one consistent theme of the campaign has been that every time you think it can't get worse for them, it does.
    The play is do your own research and use your gut instinct as these polls are bullshit.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,738

    Am I the only one already shitting themselves over the exit poll, even though it's a week away?

    No, I'm fearing a big disappointment on the other side. Irrational but undeniable.
    If it comes out at something like L385/C170/LD50/SNP20, whilst a historically bad result for the Tories it is going to be a real anti climax!
  • ukelectukelect Posts: 140

    Pulpstar said:

    New Yougov just dropped. No love for Labour it seems but things are starting to look REALLY dire for the Tories


    LAB: 36% (-1)
    CON: 18% (-1)
    REF: 17% (-1)
    LDEM: 15% (+2)
    GRN: 8% (+2)

    Baxtered.

    Lab 440.
    Con 56.
    Libdem 82.
    Reform 22.
    Green 4.

    A lot is going to depend on whether the Tory/Reform split is even or not in each constituency or wholesale tactical voting takes place
    Just for a somewhat divergent forecast, UK-Elect on its default settings (and taking some account of tactical voting) would translate those GB vote figures into Lab 365 Con 141 LibDem 69 ReformUk 8 Green 3 (and SNP 41 if it wasn't using separate Scotland percentages)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,189

    Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (24-25 June)

    Lab: 36% (-1 from 19-20 Jun)
    Con: 18% (-1)
    Reform UK: 17% (-1)
    Lib Dem: 15% (+2)
    Green: 8% (+2)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    The Sunak v Starmer debate yesterday will have squeezed the minor parties towards the big 2 again
  • Pulpstar said:

    New Yougov just dropped. No love for Labour it seems but things are starting to look REALLY dire for the Tories


    LAB: 36% (-1)
    CON: 18% (-1)
    REF: 17% (-1)
    LDEM: 15% (+2)
    GRN: 8% (+2)

    Baxtered.

    Lab 440.
    Con 56.
    Libdem 82.
    Reform 22.
    Green 4.

    A lot is going to depend on whether the Tory/Reform split is even or not in each constituency or wholesale tactical voting takes place
    I'm going to die laughing if this is where we end up on 5th July.
    Or the majority of Reform voters will switch to Tory. Highly likely.
    Why would they though? They know the election is lost, switching their vote is not going to change that. They presumably like what Reform are selling or they wouldn't say Ref in a poll survey.

    No, the only late switchers the Tories are likely to get are those who have drifted to LD, Labour or Green because they are totally pissed off with the government. Some of those will drift back to try to keep the Tories ahead of Reform.
    Fair enough. Let's see what happens with the numbers after the election. One thing is for sure the so called Reform voter is not really going say who they actually vote for.
    I see no reason why your 'one thing for sure' is likely to be true at all.
    Of course not. So put your money where your mouth is.
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 854
    edited June 27
    ClippP said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Pulpstar said:

    New Yougov just dropped. No love for Labour it seems but things are starting to look REALLY dire for the Tories


    LAB: 36% (-1)
    CON: 18% (-1)
    REF: 17% (-1)
    LDEM: 15% (+2)
    GRN: 8% (+2)

    Astonishing numbers. ElCalced, that gives:

    LAB: 440
    CON: 56
    REF: 22
    LD: 82
    GRN: 4

    A travesty of democracy if so, as (setting aside Nats and NI) the 59% left-leaning LLG vote would get 526 seats, where the 35% REF/CON right-leaning vote would get just 78. I say this as a person broadly Of The Left (as I am moreso a person Of Democracy).
    I don't think Labour entering government on 36% is particularly good for them though. Even though the majority will be bigger than Blair's it's nowhere near a 1997 position. More like starting in 2003 or some such.
    It's been said many times though that some of that is tactical. I would vote Labour in a PR-world but as we have FPTP I am going to vote LD as the only hope of defeating the incumbent Tory in my constituency. I am sure the boost and LD numbers reflects a lot of people doing the same.
    Yes, it's a great shame that Starmer has ruled out reforming the voting system...

    We all have to go by guesswork and the contradictory tactical voting sites.
    I think this would be the lowest vote share for a new gov with a maj for decades - ever maybe? Oct 74 obv most recent benchmark.

    Also has anyone done what the HoC would be if Con+ Ref was one party and no votes leak elsewhere?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,953
    viewcode said:

    LibDem bets:

    Carshalton & Wallington
    North East Fife
    Wimbledon
    Sheffield Hallam
    South Cambridgeshire
    Cheltenham
    Mid Dunbartonshire
    Cheadle
    Eastbourne
    Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c133p016pg4o

    Also Winchester. I'm surprised it isn't LibDem already, being posh as f***

    It would probably have gone last time, but too many people were worried about Corbyn - so Steve Brine clung on.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,565
    MattW said:

    What do PBrs think is a possible final vote % for Reform - about where they are, or how much lower?

    About where they are imo.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,273

    NEW THREAD

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,106

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Farage is a fucking idiot. He would now - I am sure - be well ahead of the Tories if he hadn’t vomited up his foolishness about Putin

    The people are desperate for alternative to the Tories AND Labour - but they’re not gonna vote for a party that thinks “Hitler had his reasons”

    Funny how election campaigns always cause politicians to say stupid things that damage their own position, such as Starmer yesterday with his Bangladesh comments.
    Do we know that will actually hurt him?
    It will slightly, but won't cause them to lose any seats I imagine.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,189
    edited June 27
    Heathener said:



    Apols if already mentioned x

    And a large number of those 3 million will have been undecided or wavering voters, who will vote but had not yet made up their mind.

    If you were already decided as Tory or Labour or Reform you would be watching the football unless a politics geek
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,565
    edited June 27
    Moved to new thread
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,813
    Midway through this downhill plummet, Britain bumbled backward out of the European Union. The wreckage of this four-year disaster can now best be seen as an attempt to escape the harsh bite of austerity. Brexit was a retreat from hunger into myth: an embrace of antique fables about British pluck and derring-do, a belief that even without an empire and an industrial base this archipelago might reclaim past glory. Faced with profound turmoil, much of the nation turned to a half-remembered falsehood about their grandfather’s generation, marching along with Churchill. This election is the reckoning Brexit postponed.

    https://newrepublic.com/article/182987/british-election-reckoning-brexit-postponed
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,617

    "The second and third Covid lockdowns were the biggest ever mistake made by a British government in peacetime, Nigel Farage has said."

    The Reform UK leader is speaking to 1,000 people at the Rainton Arena. [In Sunderland]

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/27/general-election-live-sunak-starmer-farage/

    I completely agree with him on that and so do many many people I know - of all political persuasions. If only he’d said that instead of his horrible Putin piffle reform would probably now be on 25% and the Tories on 13%
  • eekeek Posts: 28,026
    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:



    Apols if already mentioned x

    And a large number of those 3 million will have been undecided or wavering voters, who will vote but had not yet made up their mind.

    If you were already Tory or Labour or Reform you would be watching the football unless a politics geek
    Will there - I really don't think so but I will let you continue to hold on to that hope.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,953

    The Conservatives really do seem to be doing Angela Rayner’s PR

    https://x.com/conservatives/status/1806291306064339155

    WTF?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,026

    Am I the only one already shitting themselves over the exit poll, even though it's a week away?

    No, I'm fearing a big disappointment on the other side. Irrational but undeniable.
    If it comes out at something like L385/C170/LD50/SNP20, whilst a historically bad result for the Tories it is going to be a real anti climax!
    The election would be an anti-climax but the election night given what we expect at the moment would be a massive surprise..
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,953
    Pulpstar said:

    Am I the only one already shitting themselves over the exit poll, even though it's a week away?

    Nope.

    I may end up in the poor house.

    I am cursing the moment I ever became addicted to the spreads.
    I've largely not bet, except a 1-7 Wolverhampton West punt this election. I do recall some - Sandpit, Casino Royale and a few others (Was it you) suggesting a buy on the Tories when the spreads opened though. Have you bought the Tories :D ?
    God no, I don't recall ever recommending a buy on the Tories on the spreads.

    I did say I thought there was value in the 150-200 seats band, and placed a bet accordingly though.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,189

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    @Leon was mocked mercilessly, not least by me, months ago for claiming he might vote Starmer. Yet he is voting Starmer. So I guess I was wrong.

    The most Tory member of the VoteUK forum is also voting Labour, as some sort of protest against the government.
    Of course, we all look forward to the day when HYUFD reports voting LibDem.

    I don’t think I’ll live long enough to read that he’s voted Labour.
    I believe HYUFD is a former Plaid Cymru supporter, so he could be termed a swing voter.
    No I voted for every Tory candidate even then but there were 6 candidates to vote for in that Town council election but after I had voted for all 4 Tory candidates the only candidates to vote for were Plaid. I would otherwise have voted LD to use all my votes but there were no LD candidates
    You didn't have to use all 6 votes. And those Plaid votes could have cost Tory candidates their seats.
    Always "plump" for your own party.
    No, always use every vote and vote in every election, I put supporting democracy first even more than my party!
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,359

    Pulpstar said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Pulpstar said:

    New Yougov just dropped. No love for Labour it seems but things are starting to look REALLY dire for the Tories


    LAB: 36% (-1)
    CON: 18% (-1)
    REF: 17% (-1)
    LDEM: 15% (+2)
    GRN: 8% (+2)

    Astonishing numbers. ElCalced, that gives:

    LAB: 440
    CON: 56
    REF: 22
    LD: 82
    GRN: 4

    A travesty of democracy if so, as (setting aside Nats and NI) the 59% left-leaning LLG vote would get 526 seats, where the 35% REF/CON right-leaning vote would get just 78. I say this as a person broadly Of The Left (as I am moreso a person Of Democracy).
    I don't think Labour entering government on 36% is particularly good for them though. Even though the majority will be bigger than Blair's it's nowhere near a 1997 position. More like starting in 2003 or some such.
    It's been said many times though that some of that is tactical. I would vote Labour in a PR-world but as we have FPTP I am going to vote LD as the only hope of defeating the incumbent Tory in my constituency. I am sure the boost and LD numbers reflects a lot of people doing the same.
    If it makes you feel better, I'm an LD party member but will be voting tactically Labour as the best hope of ousting our Tory.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,055
    pop

    Pulpstar said:

    New Yougov just dropped. No love for Labour it seems but things are starting to look REALLY dire for the Tories


    LAB: 36% (-1)
    CON: 18% (-1)
    REF: 17% (-1)
    LDEM: 15% (+2)
    GRN: 8% (+2)

    Labour drifting down as expected as we approach the day. Was always going to happen.

    What has NOT happened is any drift up for the Tories - its gone down too!

    Either the polls are massively wrong, and Reform is hugely overstated, or we about to see something extraordinary. If this was the result, and Labour achieved a huge majority on that basis, I can see Labour doing absolutely nothing about the voting system, with the exception of lowering the age to 16 year olds up. Why change if the system works for you? But generally getting a third of the voters should not imply a massive vote of confidence!
    One possible scenario is that a lot of the Reform voters don't bother to vote, or only ever existed in the online panel. If we imagine half of them sitting on their hands, and recalculate the percentages (e.g. LAB = 36/91.5 = 39) then we get these shares.

    CON 20%
    LAB 39%
    LDM 16%
    GRN 9%
    RFM 9%

    Labour rarely outperform their polling, but this is a not implausible way in which they might do so this time.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    ClippP said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Pulpstar said:

    New Yougov just dropped. No love for Labour it seems but things are starting to look REALLY dire for the Tories


    LAB: 36% (-1)
    CON: 18% (-1)
    REF: 17% (-1)
    LDEM: 15% (+2)
    GRN: 8% (+2)

    Astonishing numbers. ElCalced, that gives:

    LAB: 440
    CON: 56
    REF: 22
    LD: 82
    GRN: 4

    A travesty of democracy if so, as (setting aside Nats and NI) the 59% left-leaning LLG vote would get 526 seats, where the 35% REF/CON right-leaning vote would get just 78. I say this as a person broadly Of The Left (as I am moreso a person Of Democracy).
    I don't think Labour entering government on 36% is particularly good for them though. Even though the majority will be bigger than Blair's it's nowhere near a 1997 position. More like starting in 2003 or some such.
    It's been said many times though that some of that is tactical. I would vote Labour in a PR-world but as we have FPTP I am going to vote LD as the only hope of defeating the incumbent Tory in my constituency. I am sure the boost and LD numbers reflects a lot of people doing the same.
    Yes, it's a great shame that Starmer has ruled out reforming the voting system...

    We all have to go by guesswork and the contradictory tactical voting sites.
    I think this would be the lowest vote share for a new gov with a maj for decades - ever maybe? Oct 74 obv most recent benchmark.

    Also has anyone done what the HoC would be if Con+ Ref was one party and no votes leak elsewhere?
    2005 Tony Blair won a c. 45 seat majority on 35.2%
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,255

    The Conservatives really do seem to be doing Angela Rayner’s PR

    https://x.com/conservatives/status/1806291306064339155

    WTF?
    It is really one of the dumbest things I’ve seen from the Cons.

    It’s totally over.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,775
    New thread.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,465

    Brexit party voters voted for that party in the local elections and switched to Tory in the General election irrespective of who they said they would vote for before the GE. Why not do it again?

    Reform didn't contest the last set of local elections, so the question is how many people who voted Tory in the locals will vote Reform now. The Tories will under-perform on their local election results.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    HYUFD said:

    Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (24-25 June)

    Lab: 36% (-1 from 19-20 Jun)
    Con: 18% (-1)
    Reform UK: 17% (-1)
    Lib Dem: 15% (+2)
    Green: 8% (+2)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    The Sunak v Starmer debate yesterday will have squeezed the minor parties towards the big 2 again
    My guess is the opposite. Voters have decided how they will tactically vote and this is it.

    However as is traditional on PB the Gold Standard has been Comm Res which I believe is now Savanta. Therefore I'm going with

    Savanta

    21% Tory
    42% Lab
    10% LD
    3% SNP
    5% GN
    14% Farage
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,409

    Pulpstar said:

    New Yougov just dropped. No love for Labour it seems but things are starting to look REALLY dire for the Tories


    LAB: 36% (-1)
    CON: 18% (-1)
    REF: 17% (-1)
    LDEM: 15% (+2)
    GRN: 8% (+2)

    Baxtered.

    Lab 440.
    Con 56.
    Libdem 82.
    Reform 22.
    Green 4.

    A lot is going to depend on whether the Tory/Reform split is even or not in each constituency or wholesale tactical voting takes place
    I'm going to die laughing if this is where we end up on 5th July.
    Or the majority of Reform voters will switch to Tory. Highly likely.
    Why would they though? They know the election is lost, switching their vote is not going to change that. They presumably like what Reform are selling or they wouldn't say Ref in a poll survey.

    No, the only late switchers the Tories are likely to get are those who have drifted to LD, Labour or Green because they are totally pissed off with the government. Some of those will drift back to try to keep the Tories ahead of Reform.
    Fair enough. Let's see what happens with the numbers after the election. One thing is for sure the so called Reform voter is not really going say who they actually vote for.
    I see no reason why your 'one thing for sure' is likely to be true at all.
    Of course not. So put your money where your mouth is.
    I'm sure he has. Ben is a political bettor. You just seem to be a gobshite.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    edited June 27
    @Benpointer Quote
    This is the most boring campaign and yet at the same time the most exciting election of my lifetime
    Exactly.

    That’s the point I was trying to suggest to @Richard_Tyndall earlier.

    Tho’ I do think Nigel Farage’s entrance on top of the hilarity of Sunak’s campaign has added a lot of fun providing you’re not a Cons party worker.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,026
    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (24-25 June)

    Lab: 36% (-1 from 19-20 Jun)
    Con: 18% (-1)
    Reform UK: 17% (-1)
    Lib Dem: 15% (+2)
    Green: 8% (+2)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    The Sunak v Starmer debate yesterday will have squeezed the minor parties towards the big 2 again
    My guess is the opposite. Voters have decided how they will tactically vote and this is it.

    However as is traditional on PB the Gold Standard has been Comm Res which I believe is now Savanta. Therefore I'm going with

    Savanta

    21% Tory
    42% Lab
    10% LD
    3% SNP
    5% GN
    14% Farage
    Got to say that feels about right...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,189

    Lennon said:

    Cookie said:



    Looking up the cricket grounds (including outgrounds) strikes me as a cheerfully pointless endeavour. Fully on board with that. My guess is that the main grounds are largely Lab now and will become possibly solely Lab; but that the outgrounds favour the Tories.

    I'll give you Lancs (Stretford and Urmston) for starters. Think the outgrounds are Aigburth (Liverpool Riverside, I think) and, I think Lytham (which would be Fylde, I guess).
    Where else? Durham (Chester-le-Street) would be Durham North. Notts would be Rushcliffe. Yorkshire I think is Leeds NW, with Scarborough as Scarborough and Whitby.
    Very much looking forward to this...

    Hampshire's Rose Bowl is in Eastleigh rather than either of the Southampton seats - so presumably Lib Dem gain from Conservative?

    The Oval (Surrey) is (and always has been) Labour (prev Vauxhall, now Vauxhall and Camberwell Green) - but Surrey's outground at Guildford will also (presumably) be a Lib Dem gain from Conservative...
    Kent's is Beckenham which I imagine will be one of the few Tory survivors. Outer south east London's Toriness really has to be experienced to be believed
    Kent's out ground, I should say, after Canterbury
    And Bromley?
    More likely to stay Tory than Beckenham which now includes Penge from Lewisham and will almost certainly go Labour (my sister lives there)
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,600

    The Conservatives really do seem to be doing Angela Rayner’s PR

    https://x.com/conservatives/status/1806291306064339155

    WTF?
    That's the only sane response, isn't it?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    edited June 27
    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:



    Apols if already mentioned x

    And a large number of those 3 million will have been undecided or wavering voters, who will vote but had not yet made up their mind.

    If you were already decided as Tory or Labour or Reform you would be watching the football unless a politics geek
    Evidence please?

    How do you know that they are not the party faithful or political nerds?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    Heathener said:



    Apols if already mentioned x

    And they were playing their second team
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,635
    I think I saw someone on here saying the best ever Green % was in the Region of 4.4% so current 7 to 8 looks high.

    Need to factor in that they are standing in a lot more seats this time as well as the both main Parties are the same factor.

    I reckon 7 - 8% looks reasonable but DYOR
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,265
    MattW said:

    What do PBrs think is a possible final vote % for Reform - about where they are, or how much lower?

    I think where they are now. All the possible factors including Farage trying to sabotage his own campaign seem to be priced in on the 15-18% range. I think most voters have made up their minds now even if they are saying don't know.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    I think I saw someone on here saying the best ever Green % was in the Region of 4.4% so current 7 to 8 looks high.

    Need to factor in that they are standing in a lot more seats this time as well as the both main Parties are the same factor.

    I reckon 7 - 8% looks reasonable but DYOR

    3.8% I believe is their highest in a GE
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,189
    Heathener said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:



    Apols if already mentioned x

    And a large number of those 3 million will have been undecided or wavering voters, who will vote but had not yet made up their mind.

    If you were already decided as Tory or Labour or Reform you would be watching the football unless a politics geek
    Evidence please?

    How do you know that they are not the party faithful or political nerds?
    For starters 3 million is almost 10 times the combined membership of the Tory and Labour parties
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,758

    Am I the only one already shitting themselves over the exit poll, even though it's a week away?

    Nope.

    I may end up in the poor house.

    I am cursing the moment I ever became addicted to the spreads.
    Didn't realise that bringing back workhouses is in the Reform manifesto?
    Second-term aspiration.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,750

    @Leon was mocked mercilessly, not least by me, months ago for claiming he might vote Starmer. Yet he is voting Starmer. So I guess I was wrong.

    Even he doesn’t know, until the pen is hovering over the paper. Remember the referendum….
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,055
    MattW said:

    What do PBrs think is a possible final vote % for Reform - about where they are, or how much lower?

    My prediction for RFM was 9%.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,750
    edited June 27
    Carnyx said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    algarkirk said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    This dosent feel like 1997. It feels like Majors exhausted and despised party of 1997 up against Kinnocks disliked Labour of 1992 and the SDP of 1983 performing Reforms disruptor role.

    Feel is important in an election. In 1997 it was obvious Labour were whupping the Tories. You could taste it. In 2010? The Tories would have won that had we not had the Cleggasm. In the 2015 Stockton South campaign the wheel had fallen off the Labour bus weeks before polling day with fractious infighting within the camp. And with door after door saying they liked our candidate but feared Alex Salmond, we knew in our guts it wasn't going well. 2017? I co-authored and strategised Dr Paul Williams winning campaign. No infighting as we simply shut the party out, and won.

    This time? I'm telling you, there is something in the air which the pollsters aren't picking up at least here in the true North East. That isn't me confidently saying we will win. But we're in the battle and getting heard and picking up support.

    We know how the Tories feel. They feel that they are heading for the cliffs. Sunak out campaigning in seats they hold by 25k, kids with crayons running the social media campaign, and coming out swinging in the debates hoping desperately to land a punch on Penfold...
    It feels the same here in Dorset but... the 'reluctantly going to vote Tory' voices on here make me think it will end up disappointingly much closer than the polls suggest.
    just observer bias imho- On a site like this you get lots of "tories" - by definition they are politicly engaged (why would they be on the site if not) and therefore will at some point be angry with whats happened either by the government or by the campaign - Of this mass a lot will then not vote tory again but probably then dont feel the need to admit who they are going to vote for instead but some out of the mass will state they are "reluctantly " going to vote tory. Nothing that contradicts the polls ,indeed supports them , otherwise the tories would be on zero percent .

    I for instance have voted tory at all general elections but will this time vote Reform .
    I have a moral dilemma here. I have two votes. Two postal votes. One for me and one for my ex wife (who is now in distant parts and doesn’t care)

    How shall I cast them? I am torn between starmer (to give him a chance and annoy @kinabalu) and Reform (I want the Tories destroyed and every vote for Reform adds to that)

    However my two vote sitch seems to solve the dilemma. I shall personally vote for Starmer but my ex wife will vote Reform. Sorted
    Don't cast the one for the ex-wife unless she tells you to because although you probably wouldn't be prosecuted that would be a crime and you just confessed to it on the internet.
    Isn't it actually an offence to complete, even if you have a verbal instruction from the person?

    @PBLawyers?
    Yes. See my and @TheScreamingEagles post. @leon posting on a subject he has no knowledge as usual. I mean on a site full of people who are experts on elections. How many ex Agents are here. Lots I expect.
    A question to ask about the above would be about how an ex wife who doesn't care is registered to vote anyway?
    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    This dosent feel like 1997. It feels like Majors exhausted and despised party of 1997 up against Kinnocks disliked Labour of 1992 and the SDP of 1983 performing Reforms disruptor role.

    Feel is important in an election. In 1997 it was obvious Labour were whupping the Tories. You could taste it. In 2010? The Tories would have won that had we not had the Cleggasm. In the 2015 Stockton South campaign the wheel had fallen off the Labour bus weeks before polling day with fractious infighting within the camp. And with door after door saying they liked our candidate but feared Alex Salmond, we knew in our guts it wasn't going well. 2017? I co-authored and strategised Dr Paul Williams winning campaign. No infighting as we simply shut the party out, and won.

    This time? I'm telling you, there is something in the air which the pollsters aren't picking up at least here in the true North East. That isn't me confidently saying we will win. But we're in the battle and getting heard and picking up support.

    We know how the Tories feel. They feel that they are heading for the cliffs. Sunak out campaigning in seats they hold by 25k, kids with crayons running the social media campaign, and coming out swinging in the debates hoping desperately to land a punch on Penfold...
    It feels the same here in Dorset but... the 'reluctantly going to vote Tory' voices on here make me think it will end up disappointingly much closer than the polls suggest.
    just observer bias imho- On a site like this you get lots of "tories" - by definition they are politicly engaged (why would they be on the site if not) and therefore will at some point be angry with whats happened either by the government or by the campaign - Of this mass a lot will then not vote tory again but probably then dont feel the need to admit who they are going to vote for instead but some out of the mass will state they are "reluctantly " going to vote tory. Nothing that contradicts the polls ,indeed supports them , otherwise the tories would be on zero percent .

    I for instance have voted tory at all general elections but will this time vote Reform .
    I have a moral dilemma here. I have two votes. Two postal votes. One for me and one for my ex wife (who is now in distant parts and doesn’t care)

    How shall I cast them? I am torn between starmer (to give him a chance and annoy @kinabalu) and Reform (I want the Tories destroyed and every vote for Reform adds to that)

    However my two vote sitch seems to solve the dilemma. I shall personally vote for Starmer but my ex wife will vote Reform. Sorted
    Don't cast the one for the ex-wife unless she tells you to because although you probably wouldn't be prosecuted that would be a crime and you just confessed to it on the internet.
    Isn't it actually an offence to complete, even if you have a verbal instruction from the person?

    @PBLawyers?
    Yes. See my and @TheScreamingEagles post. @leon posting on a subject he has no knowledge as usual. I mean on a site full of people who are experts on elections. How many ex Agents are here. Lots I expect.
    ITS. A. JOKE

    Omg
    I do know that. I know you are just winding us up.

    Interested to know if you knew though that you couldn't do it if instructed to do so? Also interested to know if you know it is easy to check if you have done it, although it takes a court order.

    So if you did do it and write an article the authorities might consider it worth checking because it was publicised and you wouldn't get away with saying it was a joke when they pull the ballot paper out.
    Ok I’ll run with. It was a joke - I wanted to see how many pompous people on PB would lose their humour-free nuts and get riled. Quite a few it seems

    However I am now genuinely interested. Her postal vote really is in my flat (I’ve no idea why she still gets it - she registered here for the 2019 GE but she’s not been here since 2020). I wonder how often that happens and how many people post multiple votes?

    Because I could easily do it and no one would know. Tho if I was going to do it I would not announce it on a public forum. OBVS
    I have the postal vote for my mother, in a care home with dementia, and could probably do the same. Yet I am fairly sure that an LPA doesn’t extend to voting matters.

    Most such occurrences probably occur spontaneously on impulse, and people don’t realise that a photo of the original signature is held on record. If you look at the stats for a constituency declaration, there are usually postal votes rejected, often a fair few of them, and my guess is that most of these are from such situations. Quite possibly people think it’s OK, because their partner working away, or whatever, has agreed to it. But the votes are rejected all the same, The extent to which rejected votes are later investigated is up to the ERO, but if it looked really dodgy - for example several rejected with the same handwriting - it certainly should be.
    Interesting. So they literally check every postal vote? That must really slow up the count on the night as they have to check every postal vote that is put in the ballot box on the day?
    All postal votes received before polling day are verified at separate verification counts, held in the runup to polling day. Those received at the last minute are verified at the first stage of the election night count.

    The parties are entitled to send observers to the PV verification counts, just as they are to the main count, and if the observers are there, it’s even more likely that the checking will be thorough and anything that looks suspect will be set aside. Because the voter’s identity details are visible, every ERO will know to keep the actual ballot paper face down throughout this process.

    Parties often don’t bother to observe the verification count, because it’s mostly a waste of time - even if you make a difference by challenging something the counting agent hasn’t spotted or was going to let through, you have no way of knowing whether a challenge helps or hinders your candidate.

    But it’s a handy job to send someone who, for various possible reasons, you don’t want to trust knocking on doors, when you’ve run out of things to deliver, because it seems more important than it is, and people are usually keen to go, at least for the first time. If they are very lucky they just might see the X on a few ballots as they are pulled out of envelopes, if the voter has foolishly folded them with the voting side facing outwards, and by the time they get back to HQ they will be pressed for any info - because it’s the only actually data on completed ballots on offer at the time. So the one or two votes the hapless helper has actually seen will have turned into “I saw a few votes”, through the natural tendency to exaggerate and desire to appear important (I am sure you can understand), and by the time the story has been passed around, and reached the media if it’s a key election or by-election, Chinese whispers will have turned it into “party Z is ahead on the postal votes” and occasionally we see such nonsense posted here by people who don’t understand how these things go.

    So, yes, they’re checked individually and usually thoroughly. Such that any count result that doesn’t reject some of its postal votes should be regarded with some suspicion.
    Hang on, aren't the ballot papers put into a second envelope which is only opened on the night? So checking the signature shouldn't reveal the vote anyway?
    The verification process also cross-checks the serial number on the back of the ballot paper matches the one that the voter was sent. So everything is opened and checked at verification stage. Once this is done, the ballot paper is separated from all the supporting paperwork and dropped into a ballot box, ready to be mixed in with the papers from the polling station, once these latter have been verified at the main count.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,055

    algarkirk said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Pulpstar said:

    New Yougov just dropped. No love for Labour it seems but things are starting to look REALLY dire for the Tories


    LAB: 36% (-1)
    CON: 18% (-1)
    REF: 17% (-1)
    LDEM: 15% (+2)
    GRN: 8% (+2)

    Astonishing numbers. ElCalced, that gives:

    LAB: 440
    CON: 56
    REF: 22
    LD: 82
    GRN: 4

    A travesty of democracy if so, as (setting aside Nats and NI) the 59% left-leaning LLG vote would get 526 seats, where the 35% REF/CON right-leaning vote would get just 78. I say this as a person broadly Of The Left (as I am moreso a person Of Democracy).
    Not a travesty. Everyone knows our rules. To come first in 440 seats is open to all comers on the same terms and means you have done tons better than all the rest.

    The right wing split vote is more than about maths. It's about the failure of the centre right to operate well within our system. This involves a massive lack of leadership. Other systems are available. This one has great merits.
    I am an FPTP defender and I would vote to retain it.

    But I do think a result like that would absolutely be the death sentence for FPTP. The only question would be the timing.

    It would cut through into our national discourse in a very big way.
    I don't think the national numbers matter - the local ones do. That's the whole point of FPTP, and what might damage it.

    If a lot of voters experience their MP being elected on under a third of the vote, with more than two-thirds preferring someone else, then that may do a lot more damage than somewhat esoteric national numbers.

    At the moment an overwhelming majority of MPs are elected on more than 40% of the vote, so FPTP doesn't look too bad in each individual seat.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,635

    TimS said:

    Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (24-25 June)

    Lab: 36% (-1 from 19-20 Jun)
    Con: 18% (-1)
    Reform UK: 17% (-1)
    Lib Dem: 15% (+2)
    Green: 8% (+2)
    SNP: 3% (=)


    https://x.com/yougov/status/1806283514288988386?s=61&t=c6bcp0cjChLfQN5Tc8A_6g

    Even down at 36% that's still a 230 majority. LDs also the OO on that poll, even if CorRef merge...

    Con 56, Lab 440, LD 82, Ref 22, Green 4, SNP 23, PC 4, Others 19
    I'm still scratching my head at the ludicrous Green shares some pollsters persist in publishing. And this one is up two. Something is happening with the Green party. It's odd, they've had virtually no coverage yet there they are.

    LLG is up 3 and RefCon down 2 in that poll. LLG 59, RefCon 35. So despite looking very different from other pollsters on individual parties it's bang on average on a left vs right basis.
    Since the highest Green vote in a GE is 3.8% I believe (2.7% last time), 8% would seem unlikely.
    They are standing in an extra 100 seats 574 compared to 470 in 2019 I think. i believe Greens will comfortably beat their best ever
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,266

    Am I the only one already shitting themselves over the exit poll, even though it's a week away?

    Nope.

    I may end up in the poor house.

    I am cursing the moment I ever became addicted to the spreads.
    You're worried? Think how young Sandpit is feeling.
    Even I learned my lesson about spreads (after buying Tory seats in 2017).
This discussion has been closed.