Looking up the cricket grounds (including outgrounds) strikes me as a cheerfully pointless endeavour. Fully on board with that. My guess is that the main grounds are largely Lab now and will become possibly solely Lab; but that the outgrounds favour the Tories.
I'll give you Lancs (Stretford and Urmston) for starters. Think the outgrounds are Aigburth (Liverpool Riverside, I think) and, I think Lytham (which would be Fylde, I guess). Where else? Durham (Chester-le-Street) would be Durham North. Notts would be Rushcliffe. Yorkshire I think is Leeds NW, with Scarborough as Scarborough and Whitby. Very much looking forward to this...
Hampshire's Rose Bowl is in Eastleigh rather than either of the Southampton seats - so presumably Lib Dem gain from Conservative?
The Oval (Surrey) is (and always has been) Labour (prev Vauxhall, now Vauxhall and Camberwell Green) - but Surrey's outground at Guildford will also (presumably) be a Lib Dem gain from Conservative...
Kent's is Beckenham which I imagine will be one of the few Tory survivors. Outer south east London's Toriness really has to be experienced to be believed
Brexit party voters voted for that party in the local elections and switched to Tory in the General election irrespective of who they said they would vote for before the GE. Why not do it again?
Between the two events in 2019, the Cons changed leader from the withdrawn Theresa May to the ebullient Boris Johnson. No such exception this time.
Even down at 36% that's still a 230 majority. LDs also the OO on that poll, even if CorRef merge...
Con 56, Lab 440, LD 82, Ref 22, Green 4, SNP 23, PC 4, Others 19
I'm still scratching my head at the ludicrous Green shares some pollsters persist in publishing. And this one is up two. Something is happening with the Green party. It's odd, they've had virtually no coverage yet there they are.
LLG is up 3 and RefCon down 2 in that poll. LLG 59, RefCon 35. So despite looking very different from other pollsters on individual parties it's bang on average on a left vs right basis.
A lot of discussion of the Reform vote and whether it would fold back into Con but not so much about Green folding back into Lab. Since the highest Green vote in a GE is 3.8% I believe (2.7% last time), 8% would seem unlikely.
Possibly it doesn't ?
The big picture electoral picture is such a forgone conclusion and Starmer has hardly endeared himself to the furthest left aka Green recently. I don't think it'll be 8% but surely it's primed for a record.
Looking up the cricket grounds (including outgrounds) strikes me as a cheerfully pointless endeavour. Fully on board with that. My guess is that the main grounds are largely Lab now and will become possibly solely Lab; but that the outgrounds favour the Tories.
I'll give you Lancs (Stretford and Urmston) for starters. Think the outgrounds are Aigburth (Liverpool Riverside, I think) and, I think Lytham (which would be Fylde, I guess). Where else? Durham (Chester-le-Street) would be Durham North. Notts would be Rushcliffe. Yorkshire I think is Leeds NW, with Scarborough as Scarborough and Whitby. Very much looking forward to this...
Hampshire's Rose Bowl is in Eastleigh rather than either of the Southampton seats - so presumably Lib Dem gain from Conservative?
The Oval (Surrey) is (and always has been) Labour (prev Vauxhall, now Vauxhall and Camberwell Green) - but Surrey's outground at Guildford will also (presumably) be a Lib Dem gain from Conservative...
Kent's is Beckenham which I imagine will be one of the few Tory survivors. Outer south east London's Toriness really has to be experienced to be believed
Am I the only one already shitting themselves over the exit poll, even though it's a week away?
Nope.
I may end up in the poor house.
I am cursing the moment I ever became addicted to the spreads.
I've largely not bet, except a 1-7 Wolverhampton West punt this election. I do recall some - Sandpit, Casino Royale and a few others (Was it you) suggesting a buy on the Tories when the spreads opened though. Have you bought the Tories ?
“Keir Starmer has told England fans there is “too much criticism” of Gareth Southgate’s team after their group stage performances in Euro 2024 – and urged supporters to “get behind them”.
Speaking on the campaign trail in Staffordshire, he added: “Get them over the line because this is a really important competition.
“England always do a bit of this at the beginning of competitions ... but it’s a brilliant squad of players, all had great seasons for their respective clubs. Just get behind the team. I want less of the criticism, more of the support”
💥 Not one Tory 2019 voter we spoke to is even considering voting Conservative on July 4th
💥 Tories described as "self-centred", "out of touch", "hopeless"
💥 People described the moments they turned away from the Conservatives: partygate, Covid contracts, the economy, and "the absolute disgrace" Liz Truss
💥 Sunak's early D-Day exit was singled out as "one of the biggest mistakes a politician has made": seen as "humiliating", "embarrassing", "disgusting"; one voter said they were "fuming"
💥 Rishi Sunak described as "lost", "out of touch", "false, trying to side with the general public but you just see straight through it", "smug", and a "pathetic toff"
💥 Reform UK attractive to three of our voters. Nigel Farage described as "misunderstood", "strong", "having good ideas", "great in the jungle"
💥 Keir Starmer described as "uninspiring", "rambles", "irritating", "corporate", "change", and "wishy washy". But the person who said wishy washy said that is a strength, as we "don't need a Donald Trump running our country"
💥 Labour was the most popular choice of the vast majority, with almost all planning on voting for them in one week's time
💥 But everyone said it was a vote against the Tories rather than a vote for Labour. In the words of one voter, "they've not won me, the Tories have just lost me". All said they would be open to going back to the Tories in the future, or voting for any party. This period of mass voter volatility is not going anywhere.
My prediction of a one-term Labour government that then also gets flushed down the toilet looking possible then.
Yep.
In five years time we will have higher taxes, immigration will still be high, and the economy will still be on life support - or even worse, due to a combination of higher taxes and structural decline.
Pretty much every election since the GFC has been "this is broke, fix this" and successive governments fail to fix anything.
At some point people might start to realise that the problems are structural (mostly down to worsening age structure of the population and the ills of consumer capitalism) and not amenable to government action.
But no, they will still fall for politicians selling snake oil scams like Brexit. Anything other than have to accept that they need to work longer, pay more and get less.
Work longer, pay more, and get less, will never be an election winning platform though, even if it's the truth. If Labour are TINA'ed into putting that into action next month - which, given the vagueness of their manifesto, they are probably expecting to do - I wouldn't be surprised to see them voted out in 2029 vs the next party that promises work less, pay less, and get more. And so it continues.
Elections are generally won or lost on the basis of "do you feel better off than you did at the last one?" so on that basis I wouldn't be surprised to see Labour lose 2029. People keep voting for change but change isn't happening. Just, as you say, structural decline.
Brexit party voters voted for that party in the local elections and switched to Tory in the General election irrespective of who they said they would vote for before the GE. Why not do it again?
Between the two events in 2019, the Cons changed leader from the withdrawn Theresa May to the ebullient Boris Johnson. No such exception this time.
Yes. In the Hater DNA you must be two faced and lie. It goes with the territory.
Am I the only one already shitting themselves over the exit poll, even though it's a week away?
Nope.
I may end up in the poor house.
I am cursing the moment I ever became addicted to the spreads.
I've largely not bet, except a 1-7 Wolverhampton West punt this election. I do recall some - Sandpit, Casino Royale and a few others (Was it you) suggesting a buy on the Tories when the spreads opened though. Have you bought the Tories ?
In this election I still don't know if the Tories will win 20 seats or 160 seats. And that's 90 seats with a +/- 70 seat margin because it's going to be down to how well Farage and co do spoiling the Tory (and to a lesser extent Labour) votes...
Am I the only one already shitting themselves over the exit poll, even though it's a week away?
Nope.
I may end up in the poor house.
I am cursing the moment I ever became addicted to the spreads.
You're worried? Think how young Sandpit is feeling.
It reminds me of 2017, Mike convinced me the first weekend after Mrs May called the election, based on a thread I wrote, that the Tories were a sell at 398.
I spent the better part of the next two months bricking it then when the exit poll came out I did a happy dance.
With such voter volatility, the pressure on Labour to deliver in the next 5 years is going to be massive. Could throw up a few interesting policies / reforms / points of contention, as inevitably they need to go to the country with a half decent record sell
‘Voter volatility’ is the latest sop the tories are spinning to avoid having to confront the reality.
It’s a sea-change. It happens. Work out why and then fix it.
So I was big green on ‘Reform 7 or more’, Reform 3-4, and Reform 5-6, and then sold off a bunch after Putingate - thought I’d make a nice profit either way and so was a good time to trade out some.
Now we’re getting MRPs showing Reform on 19 with EC, and then on 22 with YouGov!
Not sure what the play is now. I haven’t lost much by going early, and I’ve still got a long shot Reform ‘most seats without Labour’ - also on the Lib Dems here - if either happens I’m in dreamland.
Maybe the real value is making small punts on Reform coming through the middle in random constituencies at long odds? I believe Reform/Lib Dems will win a couple of random constituencies at long odds on low percentages.
A travesty of democracy if so, as (setting aside Nats and NI) the 59% left-leaning LLG vote would get 526 seats, where the 35% REF/CON right-leaning vote would get just 78. I say this as a person broadly Of The Left (as I am moreso a person Of Democracy).
Not a travesty. Everyone knows our rules. To come first in 440 seats is open to all comers on the same terms and means you have done tons better than all the rest.
The right wing split vote is more than about maths. It's about the failure of the centre right to operate well within our system. This involves a massive lack of leadership. Other systems are available. This one has great merits.
I am an FPTP defender and I would vote to retain it.
But I do think a result like that would absolutely be the death sentence for FPTP. The only question would be the timing.
It would cut through into our national discourse in a very big way.
Even down at 36% that's still a 230 majority. LDs also the OO on that poll, even if CorRef merge...
Con 56, Lab 440, LD 82, Ref 22, Green 4, SNP 23, PC 4, Others 19
I'm still scratching my head at the ludicrous Green shares some pollsters persist in publishing. And this one is up two. Something is happening with the Green party. It's odd, they've had virtually no coverage yet there they are.
LLG is up 3 and RefCon down 2 in that poll. LLG 59, RefCon 35. So despite looking very different from other pollsters on individual parties it's bang on average on a left vs right basis.
I took an impromptu day off yesterday, and walked the north Kent coast - 30km from Broadstairs to Whitstable.
Passing through three constituencies: East Thanet (notional 2019 Con maj. 7,690), Herne Bay and Sandwich (notional 2019 Con maj. 20,218), and Canterbury (2019 Lab maj. 2,165). You'd expect all three to be a straight Tory/Labour fight, with the Greens nowhere.
But I saw as many Green posters as Labour - concentrated in the hipster part of Margate's old town and the terraced bit of Whitstable.
And there were no Tory or Refuk placards or posters to be seen anywhere, not even in places like Birchington which was covered in Tory placards in 2019.
There's definitely a bit of a Green surge happening, but I'm not sure that the party is going to be able to do much to take advantage.
It's almost like somebody wrote an article about how Green are the only party in the utopia space, and about how that is both electorally attractive and dangerous
A lot is going to depend on whether the Tory/Reform split is even or not in each constituency or wholesale tactical voting takes place
I'm going to die laughing if this is where we end up on 5th July.
Or the majority of Reform voters will switch to Tory. Highly likely.
Why would they though? They know the election is lost, switching their vote is not going to change that. They presumably like what Reform are selling or they wouldn't say Ref in a poll survey.
No, the only late switchers the Tories are likely to get are those who have drifted to LD, Labour or Green because they are totally pissed off with the government. Some of those will drift back to try to keep the Tories ahead of Reform.
Fair enough. Let's see what happens with the numbers after the election. One thing is for sure the so called Reform voter is not really going say who they actually vote for.
Am I the only one already shitting themselves over the exit poll, even though it's a week away?
On the contrary I await it with utter fascination.
I know Labour will be running things for the next 5 years, that’s not interesting anymore. The really compelling thing is what those seat totals look like for everyone else.
And if they are a Tory voter at heart they will vote Tory because no matter how much they dislike the conservatives. The dislike Labour even more. That is for sure.
Am I the only one already shitting themselves over the exit poll, even though it's a week away?
Nope.
I may end up in the poor house.
I am cursing the moment I ever became addicted to the spreads.
I've largely not bet, except a 1-7 Wolverhampton West punt this election. I do recall some - Sandpit, Casino Royale and a few others (Was it you) suggesting a buy on the Tories when the spreads opened though. Have you bought the Tories ?
I am slightly more positive than Alastair's expectation but not by much, I went for 120 seats at the start of May as a prediction assuming an autumn election.
I think it is touch and go if the Tories hit 100+ seats
A travesty of democracy if so, as (setting aside Nats and NI) the 59% left-leaning LLG vote would get 526 seats, where the 35% REF/CON right-leaning vote would get just 78. I say this as a person broadly Of The Left (as I am moreso a person Of Democracy).
I don't think Labour entering government on 36% is particularly good for them though. Even though the majority will be bigger than Blair's it's nowhere near a 1997 position. More like starting in 2003 or some such.
It's been said many times though that some of that is tactical. I would vote Labour in a PR-world but as we have FPTP I am going to vote LD as the only hope of defeating the incumbent Tory in my constituency. I am sure the boost and LD numbers reflects a lot of people doing the same.
Yes, it's a great shame that Starmer has ruled out reforming the voting system...
We all have to go by guesswork and the contradictory tactical voting sites.
A lot is going to depend on whether the Tory/Reform split is even or not in each constituency or wholesale tactical voting takes place
I'm going to die laughing if this is where we end up on 5th July.
Or the majority of Reform voters will switch to Tory. Highly likely.
Why would they though? They know the election is lost, switching their vote is not going to change that. They presumably like what Reform are selling or they wouldn't say Ref in a poll survey.
No, the only late switchers the Tories are likely to get are those who have drifted to LD, Labour or Green because they are totally pissed off with the government. Some of those will drift back to try to keep the Tories ahead of Reform.
Fair enough. Let's see what happens with the numbers after the election. One thing is for sure the so called Reform voter is not really going say who they actually vote for.
I see no reason why your 'one thing for sure' is likely to be true at all.
That's the worst one since they stylised Starter to make him look like Stakhanov. I honestly think 9 out of 10 people watching that would assume it was an ad by Angela Rayner
So I was big green on ‘Reform 7 or more’, Reform 3-4, and Reform 5-6, and then sold off a bunch after Putingate - thought I’d make a nice profit either way and so was a good time to trade out some.
Now we’re getting MRPs showing Reform on 19 with EC, and then on 22 with YouGov!
Not sure what the play is now. I haven’t lost much by going early, and I’ve still got a long shot Reform ‘most seats without Labour’ - also on the Lib Dems here - if either happens I’m in dreamland.
Maybe the real value is making small punts on Reform coming through the middle in random constituencies at long odds? I believe Reform/Lib Dems will win a couple of random constituencies at long odds on low percentages.
The play now is to sell Con.
The one consistent theme of the campaign has been that every time you think it can't get worse for them, it does.
What sort of placards are being seen in the internal or boundary areas of newly established Low Traffic Neighbourhoods?
(Working on perceptions and local politics, ignoring the reality that anybody on an estated built since perhaps 1960 is in one already.)
Oxford East: I'm told there are posters supporting the anti-LTN Independent (David Henwood) in some of the Cowley Road shops, but that it's mostly the three parties you'd expect (Labour, LibDem, Green) - all of whom are broadly pro-LTN - plus a few for the Corbynite/Gaza indy.
The LTN issue doesn't appear to have crossed through from the locals and Henwood is flailing a bit, putting out a completely incoherent statement attacking Labour yesterday that even his chums at the Oxford Mail haven't deigned to cover.
So I was big green on ‘Reform 7 or more’, Reform 3-4, and Reform 5-6, and then sold off a bunch after Putingate - thought I’d make a nice profit either way and so was a good time to trade out some.
Now we’re getting MRPs showing Reform on 19 with EC, and then on 22 with YouGov!
Not sure what the play is now. I haven’t lost much by going early, and I’ve still got a long shot Reform ‘most seats without Labour’ - also on the Lib Dems here - if either happens I’m in dreamland.
Maybe the real value is making small punts on Reform coming through the middle in random constituencies at long odds? I believe Reform/Lib Dems will win a couple of random constituencies at long odds on low percentages.
The play now is to sell Con.
The one consistent theme of the campaign has been that every time you think it can't get worse for them, it does.
The play is do your own research and use your gut instinct as these polls are bullshit.
A lot is going to depend on whether the Tory/Reform split is even or not in each constituency or wholesale tactical voting takes place
Just for a somewhat divergent forecast, UK-Elect on its default settings (and taking some account of tactical voting) would translate those GB vote figures into Lab 365 Con 141 LibDem 69 ReformUk 8 Green 3 (and SNP 41 if it wasn't using separate Scotland percentages)
A lot is going to depend on whether the Tory/Reform split is even or not in each constituency or wholesale tactical voting takes place
I'm going to die laughing if this is where we end up on 5th July.
Or the majority of Reform voters will switch to Tory. Highly likely.
Why would they though? They know the election is lost, switching their vote is not going to change that. They presumably like what Reform are selling or they wouldn't say Ref in a poll survey.
No, the only late switchers the Tories are likely to get are those who have drifted to LD, Labour or Green because they are totally pissed off with the government. Some of those will drift back to try to keep the Tories ahead of Reform.
Fair enough. Let's see what happens with the numbers after the election. One thing is for sure the so called Reform voter is not really going say who they actually vote for.
I see no reason why your 'one thing for sure' is likely to be true at all.
Of course not. So put your money where your mouth is.
A travesty of democracy if so, as (setting aside Nats and NI) the 59% left-leaning LLG vote would get 526 seats, where the 35% REF/CON right-leaning vote would get just 78. I say this as a person broadly Of The Left (as I am moreso a person Of Democracy).
I don't think Labour entering government on 36% is particularly good for them though. Even though the majority will be bigger than Blair's it's nowhere near a 1997 position. More like starting in 2003 or some such.
It's been said many times though that some of that is tactical. I would vote Labour in a PR-world but as we have FPTP I am going to vote LD as the only hope of defeating the incumbent Tory in my constituency. I am sure the boost and LD numbers reflects a lot of people doing the same.
Yes, it's a great shame that Starmer has ruled out reforming the voting system...
We all have to go by guesswork and the contradictory tactical voting sites.
I think this would be the lowest vote share for a new gov with a maj for decades - ever maybe? Oct 74 obv most recent benchmark.
Also has anyone done what the HoC would be if Con+ Ref was one party and no votes leak elsewhere?
Farage is a fucking idiot. He would now - I am sure - be well ahead of the Tories if he hadn’t vomited up his foolishness about Putin
The people are desperate for alternative to the Tories AND Labour - but they’re not gonna vote for a party that thinks “Hitler had his reasons”
Funny how election campaigns always cause politicians to say stupid things that damage their own position, such as Starmer yesterday with his Bangladesh comments.
Do we know that will actually hurt him?
It will slightly, but won't cause them to lose any seats I imagine.
Midway through this downhill plummet, Britain bumbled backward out of the European Union. The wreckage of this four-year disaster can now best be seen as an attempt to escape the harsh bite of austerity. Brexit was a retreat from hunger into myth: an embrace of antique fables about British pluck and derring-do, a belief that even without an empire and an industrial base this archipelago might reclaim past glory. Faced with profound turmoil, much of the nation turned to a half-remembered falsehood about their grandfather’s generation, marching along with Churchill. This election is the reckoning Brexit postponed.
I completely agree with him on that and so do many many people I know - of all political persuasions. If only he’d said that instead of his horrible Putin piffle reform would probably now be on 25% and the Tories on 13%
Am I the only one already shitting themselves over the exit poll, even though it's a week away?
Nope.
I may end up in the poor house.
I am cursing the moment I ever became addicted to the spreads.
I've largely not bet, except a 1-7 Wolverhampton West punt this election. I do recall some - Sandpit, Casino Royale and a few others (Was it you) suggesting a buy on the Tories when the spreads opened though. Have you bought the Tories ?
God no, I don't recall ever recommending a buy on the Tories on the spreads.
I did say I thought there was value in the 150-200 seats band, and placed a bet accordingly though.
@Leon was mocked mercilessly, not least by me, months ago for claiming he might vote Starmer. Yet he is voting Starmer. So I guess I was wrong.
The most Tory member of the VoteUK forum is also voting Labour, as some sort of protest against the government.
Of course, we all look forward to the day when HYUFD reports voting LibDem.
I don’t think I’ll live long enough to read that he’s voted Labour.
I believe HYUFD is a former Plaid Cymru supporter, so he could be termed a swing voter.
No I voted for every Tory candidate even then but there were 6 candidates to vote for in that Town council election but after I had voted for all 4 Tory candidates the only candidates to vote for were Plaid. I would otherwise have voted LD to use all my votes but there were no LD candidates
You didn't have to use all 6 votes. And those Plaid votes could have cost Tory candidates their seats. Always "plump" for your own party.
No, always use every vote and vote in every election, I put supporting democracy first even more than my party!
A travesty of democracy if so, as (setting aside Nats and NI) the 59% left-leaning LLG vote would get 526 seats, where the 35% REF/CON right-leaning vote would get just 78. I say this as a person broadly Of The Left (as I am moreso a person Of Democracy).
I don't think Labour entering government on 36% is particularly good for them though. Even though the majority will be bigger than Blair's it's nowhere near a 1997 position. More like starting in 2003 or some such.
It's been said many times though that some of that is tactical. I would vote Labour in a PR-world but as we have FPTP I am going to vote LD as the only hope of defeating the incumbent Tory in my constituency. I am sure the boost and LD numbers reflects a lot of people doing the same.
If it makes you feel better, I'm an LD party member but will be voting tactically Labour as the best hope of ousting our Tory.
Labour drifting down as expected as we approach the day. Was always going to happen.
What has NOT happened is any drift up for the Tories - its gone down too!
Either the polls are massively wrong, and Reform is hugely overstated, or we about to see something extraordinary. If this was the result, and Labour achieved a huge majority on that basis, I can see Labour doing absolutely nothing about the voting system, with the exception of lowering the age to 16 year olds up. Why change if the system works for you? But generally getting a third of the voters should not imply a massive vote of confidence!
One possible scenario is that a lot of the Reform voters don't bother to vote, or only ever existed in the online panel. If we imagine half of them sitting on their hands, and recalculate the percentages (e.g. LAB = 36/91.5 = 39) then we get these shares.
CON 20% LAB 39% LDM 16% GRN 9% RFM 9%
Labour rarely outperform their polling, but this is a not implausible way in which they might do so this time.
A travesty of democracy if so, as (setting aside Nats and NI) the 59% left-leaning LLG vote would get 526 seats, where the 35% REF/CON right-leaning vote would get just 78. I say this as a person broadly Of The Left (as I am moreso a person Of Democracy).
I don't think Labour entering government on 36% is particularly good for them though. Even though the majority will be bigger than Blair's it's nowhere near a 1997 position. More like starting in 2003 or some such.
It's been said many times though that some of that is tactical. I would vote Labour in a PR-world but as we have FPTP I am going to vote LD as the only hope of defeating the incumbent Tory in my constituency. I am sure the boost and LD numbers reflects a lot of people doing the same.
Yes, it's a great shame that Starmer has ruled out reforming the voting system...
We all have to go by guesswork and the contradictory tactical voting sites.
I think this would be the lowest vote share for a new gov with a maj for decades - ever maybe? Oct 74 obv most recent benchmark.
Also has anyone done what the HoC would be if Con+ Ref was one party and no votes leak elsewhere?
2005 Tony Blair won a c. 45 seat majority on 35.2%
Brexit party voters voted for that party in the local elections and switched to Tory in the General election irrespective of who they said they would vote for before the GE. Why not do it again?
Reform didn't contest the last set of local elections, so the question is how many people who voted Tory in the locals will vote Reform now. The Tories will under-perform on their local election results.
A lot is going to depend on whether the Tory/Reform split is even or not in each constituency or wholesale tactical voting takes place
I'm going to die laughing if this is where we end up on 5th July.
Or the majority of Reform voters will switch to Tory. Highly likely.
Why would they though? They know the election is lost, switching their vote is not going to change that. They presumably like what Reform are selling or they wouldn't say Ref in a poll survey.
No, the only late switchers the Tories are likely to get are those who have drifted to LD, Labour or Green because they are totally pissed off with the government. Some of those will drift back to try to keep the Tories ahead of Reform.
Fair enough. Let's see what happens with the numbers after the election. One thing is for sure the so called Reform voter is not really going say who they actually vote for.
I see no reason why your 'one thing for sure' is likely to be true at all.
Of course not. So put your money where your mouth is.
I'm sure he has. Ben is a political bettor. You just seem to be a gobshite.
Looking up the cricket grounds (including outgrounds) strikes me as a cheerfully pointless endeavour. Fully on board with that. My guess is that the main grounds are largely Lab now and will become possibly solely Lab; but that the outgrounds favour the Tories.
I'll give you Lancs (Stretford and Urmston) for starters. Think the outgrounds are Aigburth (Liverpool Riverside, I think) and, I think Lytham (which would be Fylde, I guess). Where else? Durham (Chester-le-Street) would be Durham North. Notts would be Rushcliffe. Yorkshire I think is Leeds NW, with Scarborough as Scarborough and Whitby. Very much looking forward to this...
Hampshire's Rose Bowl is in Eastleigh rather than either of the Southampton seats - so presumably Lib Dem gain from Conservative?
The Oval (Surrey) is (and always has been) Labour (prev Vauxhall, now Vauxhall and Camberwell Green) - but Surrey's outground at Guildford will also (presumably) be a Lib Dem gain from Conservative...
Kent's is Beckenham which I imagine will be one of the few Tory survivors. Outer south east London's Toriness really has to be experienced to be believed
Kent's out ground, I should say, after Canterbury
And Bromley?
More likely to stay Tory than Beckenham which now includes Penge from Lewisham and will almost certainly go Labour (my sister lives there)
What do PBrs think is a possible final vote % for Reform - about where they are, or how much lower?
I think where they are now. All the possible factors including Farage trying to sabotage his own campaign seem to be priced in on the 15-18% range. I think most voters have made up their minds now even if they are saying don't know.
This dosent feel like 1997. It feels like Majors exhausted and despised party of 1997 up against Kinnocks disliked Labour of 1992 and the SDP of 1983 performing Reforms disruptor role.
Feel is important in an election. In 1997 it was obvious Labour were whupping the Tories. You could taste it. In 2010? The Tories would have won that had we not had the Cleggasm. In the 2015 Stockton South campaign the wheel had fallen off the Labour bus weeks before polling day with fractious infighting within the camp. And with door after door saying they liked our candidate but feared Alex Salmond, we knew in our guts it wasn't going well. 2017? I co-authored and strategised Dr Paul Williams winning campaign. No infighting as we simply shut the party out, and won.
This time? I'm telling you, there is something in the air which the pollsters aren't picking up at least here in the true North East. That isn't me confidently saying we will win. But we're in the battle and getting heard and picking up support.
We know how the Tories feel. They feel that they are heading for the cliffs. Sunak out campaigning in seats they hold by 25k, kids with crayons running the social media campaign, and coming out swinging in the debates hoping desperately to land a punch on Penfold...
It feels the same here in Dorset but... the 'reluctantly going to vote Tory' voices on here make me think it will end up disappointingly much closer than the polls suggest.
just observer bias imho- On a site like this you get lots of "tories" - by definition they are politicly engaged (why would they be on the site if not) and therefore will at some point be angry with whats happened either by the government or by the campaign - Of this mass a lot will then not vote tory again but probably then dont feel the need to admit who they are going to vote for instead but some out of the mass will state they are "reluctantly " going to vote tory. Nothing that contradicts the polls ,indeed supports them , otherwise the tories would be on zero percent .
I for instance have voted tory at all general elections but will this time vote Reform .
I have a moral dilemma here. I have two votes. Two postal votes. One for me and one for my ex wife (who is now in distant parts and doesn’t care)
How shall I cast them? I am torn between starmer (to give him a chance and annoy @kinabalu) and Reform (I want the Tories destroyed and every vote for Reform adds to that)
However my two vote sitch seems to solve the dilemma. I shall personally vote for Starmer but my ex wife will vote Reform. Sorted
Don't cast the one for the ex-wife unless she tells you to because although you probably wouldn't be prosecuted that would be a crime and you just confessed to it on the internet.
Isn't it actually an offence to complete, even if you have a verbal instruction from the person?
Yes. See my and @TheScreamingEagles post. @leon posting on a subject he has no knowledge as usual. I mean on a site full of people who are experts on elections. How many ex Agents are here. Lots I expect.
A question to ask about the above would be about how an ex wife who doesn't care is registered to vote anyway?
This dosent feel like 1997. It feels like Majors exhausted and despised party of 1997 up against Kinnocks disliked Labour of 1992 and the SDP of 1983 performing Reforms disruptor role.
Feel is important in an election. In 1997 it was obvious Labour were whupping the Tories. You could taste it. In 2010? The Tories would have won that had we not had the Cleggasm. In the 2015 Stockton South campaign the wheel had fallen off the Labour bus weeks before polling day with fractious infighting within the camp. And with door after door saying they liked our candidate but feared Alex Salmond, we knew in our guts it wasn't going well. 2017? I co-authored and strategised Dr Paul Williams winning campaign. No infighting as we simply shut the party out, and won.
This time? I'm telling you, there is something in the air which the pollsters aren't picking up at least here in the true North East. That isn't me confidently saying we will win. But we're in the battle and getting heard and picking up support.
We know how the Tories feel. They feel that they are heading for the cliffs. Sunak out campaigning in seats they hold by 25k, kids with crayons running the social media campaign, and coming out swinging in the debates hoping desperately to land a punch on Penfold...
It feels the same here in Dorset but... the 'reluctantly going to vote Tory' voices on here make me think it will end up disappointingly much closer than the polls suggest.
just observer bias imho- On a site like this you get lots of "tories" - by definition they are politicly engaged (why would they be on the site if not) and therefore will at some point be angry with whats happened either by the government or by the campaign - Of this mass a lot will then not vote tory again but probably then dont feel the need to admit who they are going to vote for instead but some out of the mass will state they are "reluctantly " going to vote tory. Nothing that contradicts the polls ,indeed supports them , otherwise the tories would be on zero percent .
I for instance have voted tory at all general elections but will this time vote Reform .
I have a moral dilemma here. I have two votes. Two postal votes. One for me and one for my ex wife (who is now in distant parts and doesn’t care)
How shall I cast them? I am torn between starmer (to give him a chance and annoy @kinabalu) and Reform (I want the Tories destroyed and every vote for Reform adds to that)
However my two vote sitch seems to solve the dilemma. I shall personally vote for Starmer but my ex wife will vote Reform. Sorted
Don't cast the one for the ex-wife unless she tells you to because although you probably wouldn't be prosecuted that would be a crime and you just confessed to it on the internet.
Isn't it actually an offence to complete, even if you have a verbal instruction from the person?
Yes. See my and @TheScreamingEagles post. @leon posting on a subject he has no knowledge as usual. I mean on a site full of people who are experts on elections. How many ex Agents are here. Lots I expect.
ITS. A. JOKE
Omg
I do know that. I know you are just winding us up.
Interested to know if you knew though that you couldn't do it if instructed to do so? Also interested to know if you know it is easy to check if you have done it, although it takes a court order.
So if you did do it and write an article the authorities might consider it worth checking because it was publicised and you wouldn't get away with saying it was a joke when they pull the ballot paper out.
Ok I’ll run with. It was a joke - I wanted to see how many pompous people on PB would lose their humour-free nuts and get riled. Quite a few it seems
However I am now genuinely interested. Her postal vote really is in my flat (I’ve no idea why she still gets it - she registered here for the 2019 GE but she’s not been here since 2020). I wonder how often that happens and how many people post multiple votes?
Because I could easily do it and no one would know. Tho if I was going to do it I would not announce it on a public forum. OBVS
I have the postal vote for my mother, in a care home with dementia, and could probably do the same. Yet I am fairly sure that an LPA doesn’t extend to voting matters.
Most such occurrences probably occur spontaneously on impulse, and people don’t realise that a photo of the original signature is held on record. If you look at the stats for a constituency declaration, there are usually postal votes rejected, often a fair few of them, and my guess is that most of these are from such situations. Quite possibly people think it’s OK, because their partner working away, or whatever, has agreed to it. But the votes are rejected all the same, The extent to which rejected votes are later investigated is up to the ERO, but if it looked really dodgy - for example several rejected with the same handwriting - it certainly should be.
Interesting. So they literally check every postal vote? That must really slow up the count on the night as they have to check every postal vote that is put in the ballot box on the day?
All postal votes received before polling day are verified at separate verification counts, held in the runup to polling day. Those received at the last minute are verified at the first stage of the election night count.
The parties are entitled to send observers to the PV verification counts, just as they are to the main count, and if the observers are there, it’s even more likely that the checking will be thorough and anything that looks suspect will be set aside. Because the voter’s identity details are visible, every ERO will know to keep the actual ballot paper face down throughout this process.
Parties often don’t bother to observe the verification count, because it’s mostly a waste of time - even if you make a difference by challenging something the counting agent hasn’t spotted or was going to let through, you have no way of knowing whether a challenge helps or hinders your candidate.
But it’s a handy job to send someone who, for various possible reasons, you don’t want to trust knocking on doors, when you’ve run out of things to deliver, because it seems more important than it is, and people are usually keen to go, at least for the first time. If they are very lucky they just might see the X on a few ballots as they are pulled out of envelopes, if the voter has foolishly folded them with the voting side facing outwards, and by the time they get back to HQ they will be pressed for any info - because it’s the only actually data on completed ballots on offer at the time. So the one or two votes the hapless helper has actually seen will have turned into “I saw a few votes”, through the natural tendency to exaggerate and desire to appear important (I am sure you can understand), and by the time the story has been passed around, and reached the media if it’s a key election or by-election, Chinese whispers will have turned it into “party Z is ahead on the postal votes” and occasionally we see such nonsense posted here by people who don’t understand how these things go.
So, yes, they’re checked individually and usually thoroughly. Such that any count result that doesn’t reject some of its postal votes should be regarded with some suspicion.
Hang on, aren't the ballot papers put into a second envelope which is only opened on the night? So checking the signature shouldn't reveal the vote anyway?
The verification process also cross-checks the serial number on the back of the ballot paper matches the one that the voter was sent. So everything is opened and checked at verification stage. Once this is done, the ballot paper is separated from all the supporting paperwork and dropped into a ballot box, ready to be mixed in with the papers from the polling station, once these latter have been verified at the main count.
A travesty of democracy if so, as (setting aside Nats and NI) the 59% left-leaning LLG vote would get 526 seats, where the 35% REF/CON right-leaning vote would get just 78. I say this as a person broadly Of The Left (as I am moreso a person Of Democracy).
Not a travesty. Everyone knows our rules. To come first in 440 seats is open to all comers on the same terms and means you have done tons better than all the rest.
The right wing split vote is more than about maths. It's about the failure of the centre right to operate well within our system. This involves a massive lack of leadership. Other systems are available. This one has great merits.
I am an FPTP defender and I would vote to retain it.
But I do think a result like that would absolutely be the death sentence for FPTP. The only question would be the timing.
It would cut through into our national discourse in a very big way.
I don't think the national numbers matter - the local ones do. That's the whole point of FPTP, and what might damage it.
If a lot of voters experience their MP being elected on under a third of the vote, with more than two-thirds preferring someone else, then that may do a lot more damage than somewhat esoteric national numbers.
At the moment an overwhelming majority of MPs are elected on more than 40% of the vote, so FPTP doesn't look too bad in each individual seat.
Even down at 36% that's still a 230 majority. LDs also the OO on that poll, even if CorRef merge...
Con 56, Lab 440, LD 82, Ref 22, Green 4, SNP 23, PC 4, Others 19
I'm still scratching my head at the ludicrous Green shares some pollsters persist in publishing. And this one is up two. Something is happening with the Green party. It's odd, they've had virtually no coverage yet there they are.
LLG is up 3 and RefCon down 2 in that poll. LLG 59, RefCon 35. So despite looking very different from other pollsters on individual parties it's bang on average on a left vs right basis.
Since the highest Green vote in a GE is 3.8% I believe (2.7% last time), 8% would seem unlikely.
They are standing in an extra 100 seats 574 compared to 470 in 2019 I think. i believe Greens will comfortably beat their best ever
Comments
Always
Elections are generally won or lost on the basis of "do you feel better off than you did at the last one?" so on that basis I wouldn't be surprised to see Labour lose 2029. People keep voting for change but change isn't happening. Just, as you say, structural decline.
I spent the better part of the next two months bricking it then when the exit poll came out I did a happy dance.
It’s a sea-change. It happens. Work out why and then fix it.
Now we’re getting MRPs showing Reform on 19 with EC, and then on 22 with YouGov!
Not sure what the play is now. I haven’t lost much by going early, and I’ve still got a long shot Reform ‘most seats without Labour’ - also on the Lib Dems here - if either happens I’m in dreamland.
Maybe the real value is making small punts on Reform coming through the middle in random constituencies at long odds? I believe Reform/Lib Dems will win a couple of random constituencies at long odds on low percentages.
But I do think a result like that would absolutely be the death sentence for FPTP. The only question would be the timing.
It would cut through into our national discourse in a very big way.
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/05/12/solarpunk/
https://x.com/conservatives/status/1806291306064339155
On reflection that would be SO funny - Leon missing out on £10k by one seat, a few dozen votes maybe.
I know Labour will be running things for the next 5 years, that’s not interesting anymore. The really compelling thing is what those seat totals look like for everyone else.
I think it is touch and go if the Tories hit 100+ seats
We all have to go by guesswork and the contradictory tactical voting sites.
Apols if already mentioned x
The one consistent theme of the campaign has been that every time you think it can't get worse for them, it does.
The LTN issue doesn't appear to have crossed through from the locals and Henwood is flailing a bit, putting out a completely incoherent statement attacking Labour yesterday that even his chums at the Oxford Mail haven't deigned to cover.
Also has anyone done what the HoC would be if Con+ Ref was one party and no votes leak elsewhere?
NEW THREAD
If you were already decided as Tory or Labour or Reform you would be watching the football unless a politics geek
https://newrepublic.com/article/182987/british-election-reckoning-brexit-postponed
I did say I thought there was value in the 150-200 seats band, and placed a bet accordingly though.
CON 20%
LAB 39%
LDM 16%
GRN 9%
RFM 9%
Labour rarely outperform their polling, but this is a not implausible way in which they might do so this time.
It’s totally over.
However as is traditional on PB the Gold Standard has been Comm Res which I believe is now Savanta. Therefore I'm going with
Savanta
21% Tory
42% Lab
10% LD
3% SNP
5% GN
14% Farage
That’s the point I was trying to suggest to @Richard_Tyndall earlier.
Tho’ I do think Nigel Farage’s entrance on top of the hilarity of Sunak’s campaign has added a lot of fun providing you’re not a Cons party worker.
This thread bet on itself to be replaced
How do you know that they are not the party faithful or political nerds?
Need to factor in that they are standing in a lot more seats this time as well as the both main Parties are the same factor.
I reckon 7 - 8% looks reasonable but DYOR
If a lot of voters experience their MP being elected on under a third of the vote, with more than two-thirds preferring someone else, then that may do a lot more damage than somewhat esoteric national numbers.
At the moment an overwhelming majority of MPs are elected on more than 40% of the vote, so FPTP doesn't look too bad in each individual seat.