So for the three most recent polls there is quite a lot of consistency. Herding in the final week?
Lab 39,40, 42 so let’s call it LAB 40% Con 20,20, 23 so let’s call it CON 22% to be generous RFM 14, 15, 16 so RFM 15% LibDem 11,12,12 so let’s call it LibDem 12% GRN 5,6,6 so let’s call it GREEN 6%
Fed into EC without tactical that would yield a Lab majority of c. 230 with the tories and LibDems vying for second place on around 70.
I still think the Conservative vote share will rise a little and that Labour and Reform may slip a little further but I accept that time is limited.
I think Farage has Ratnered the Reform brand with his position snugly in Putin's small intestine on Ukraine. There will be a close correlation between those who are proud of the UK's assistance to Ukraine and those who might have considered voting Reform. I genuinely can't see Reform coming close to the Conservative vote.
Perhaps my only bright spot of this whole election would be Farage losing in Clacton.
Rare agreement by me with a Tory. Farage losing would be magnificent, and I would get even more joy from that than from my eager desire for JRM to be decapitated.
I would certainly share your joy in both cases.
Landslide defeat for govt, Reform damp squib and Lib Dems surprising on the upside are my wish list for next week.
That plus Galloway losing in Rochdale, Corbyn losing in Islington and some weird and surprising results to keep the interest up.
I'm setting up a watch party/shitposting group for some politically-inclined friends and thinking of some talking points, side plots, seats to watch and maybe a bingo card. From the top of my head, the main things are:
* scale of defeat * allied to these, notable scalps * Gorgeous and Corbz * SNP collapse? * The Farage Ascendency * Greens - better in the shires or the cities? * The Vaz madness in Leicester * Effect (if any) of 'personal votes' * Shameless Con leadership manoeuvring * Alliance in NI
There will be a lot to chat on through the night. Anything anyone else has a particular eye on, or other interesting mini dramas?
Ashfield, with the Ashfield Independents, and Lee Anderson for RFM, is a seat to watch (though maybe that's included in your Farage Ascendancy?)
Particular things you might want to keep an eye on, depending on the interest in your group, is whether the Tories are wiped out in particular areas: Wales, Scotland, North West, etc, or seats with Premier League football grounds, County Cricket grounds, Warhammer stores, etc.
I'm going to look up the cricket grounds (including outgrounds). I also want to keep a running total of the area of seats won - will Labour reach a majority by constituency land area?
Looking up the cricket grounds (including outgrounds) strikes me as a cheerfully pointless endeavour. Fully on board with that. My guess is that the main grounds are largely Lab now and will become possibly solely Lab; but that the outgrounds favour the Tories.
I'll give you Lancs (Stretford and Urmston) for starters. Think the outgrounds are Aigburth (Liverpool Riverside, I think) and, I think Lytham (which would be Fylde, I guess). Where else? Durham (Chester-le-Street) would be Durham North. Notts would be Rushcliffe. Yorkshire I think is Leeds NW, with Scarborough as Scarborough and Whitby. Very much looking forward to this...
Derbyshire are whatever Derby seat the County Ground is in, and Chesterfield where Queens Park is for an outground - but Chesterfield is already Labour.
My impression of Ashfield is that it will be close-run between Lee Anderson and Labour.
Zadrozny is now out to 8:1 having started at 4s and 5s.
Surely they could park the ISS somewhere like a Lagrange point or something as all that stuff could be used more usefully than polluting the Pacific? Maybe even as an emergency refuge.
Well they’re not going to get Boeing to do it, after all the crap that company is currently giving NASA.
The problem is that it will rapidly degrade and start to disintegrate once systems start being switched off, so it needs to be either pushed deep into space or brought back to Earth.
Just seems rather unambitious and wasteful to me.
They have little choice. It has been up there since 2000, and will soon reach the end of its useful life. They already have problems with leaking air and various systems malfunctions are becoming more common. Better to plan properly to deorbit the station in a controlled manner, than have to do an emergency evacuation and an uncontrolled re-entry which could cause problems on Earth!
Let's say Tories end up with a few more seats than LibDems. Official opposition status awaits.
Might be tempting for a few Starmer-sceptic Labour MPs to jump ship to LibDems and push their numbers past the Tories. In those circs do the LibDems become official opposition with all the extra profile and perquisites?
Might the DUP take the Tory whip to get them over the line? APNI do the same for LibDems?
Will this be being war-gamed?
Yes, we've talked about this a bit. It will be down to the Speaker to adjudicate. Much potential for all sorts of things to affect it - by-elections, defections, coalitions, perhaps His Majesty's Very Loyal Opposition, if a bunch of Labour backbenchers decided there is more room on the other side of the chamber (though that would be high levels of skulduggery, if they took up the Labour whip again in time to be candidates at the election following).
The Lib Dems would, I'd think, be concentrating on winning the seats to make it a necessary question to answer, and the Tories seem to be preoccupied with internal post-election manoeuvring.
How about Tories 61 seats, LibDems 60 seats and then Rishi does what we all know he will......
Surely they could park the ISS somewhere like a Lagrange point or something as all that stuff could be used more usefully than polluting the Pacific? Maybe even as an emergency refuge.
Well they’re not going to get Boeing to do it, after all the crap that company is currently giving NASA.
The problem is that it will rapidly degrade and start to disintegrate once systems start being switched off, so it needs to be either pushed deep into space or brought back to Earth.
Just seems rather unambitious and wasteful to me.
Getting to one of the stable Lagrange points (L4 or L5) needs roughly the same delta-v as getting to the moon, about 4km/s
The delta-v needed to do a controlled deorbit, by contrast, is only on the order of 100m/s.
So it's much, much easier to de-orbit than to park it at L5.
And you really don’t want a mess of broken-up space junk taking valuable space at a Lagrange Point.
So two headlines on the Telegraph website this morning related to political betting and I think they are very different in terms of legality and there is a real danger of conflating the two.
1. Kevin Hollinrake, the business minister, has said he placed a bet on the Conservatives to win the election. I see nothing wrong with this at all. It is not going to influence how hard he tries to secure a Tory victory and I think this should remain legal.
2. Senior Tory ‘bet £8,000 he would lose his seat at election. This to me seems completely wrong and if it is not yet illegal then it should be. It is no different from sportsmen betting on their team to lose.
My fear is that in trying to deal with the second (and the examples of insider knowledge already being invetigated) the new Government will go over the top and ban the first as well.
It depends on the reasons why you think #2 is wrong. Is it wrong because of the position of influence, or because of the position of knowledge?
This all started because of people betting on something they had privileged knowledge of but presumably next to no influence over: the date of the election. If that is wrong then arguments can be made for all insider betting to be wrong.
To use football terms, if you're a player and you know some of the fitness doubts on your side are doing quite well, you can bet on your own team to win because you have information that affects the value of the bet. Guaranteeing a bet will win isn't the only path to a bet being morally dubious.
I'm not offering a view, so don't mistake me for saying this or that should be banned. I don't know. But there are sound reasons why footballers betting, even on their own team to win, is frowned upon. Similar views might be applicable to political betting by insiders.
I think clearly because of position of influence. Whilst no one is going to throw away a Parliamentary career for 8 grand, once you have established the principle then they might do so for, say, 100 grand. This is exactly the same as footballers or cricketers throwing games. Hence the reason I think it should be illegal (if it isn't already)
I'm amazed a bookie let anyone have 8 grand on a result, let alone Phillip Davies.
Even down at 36% that's still a 230 majority. LDs also the OO on that poll, even if CorRef merge...
Con 56, Lab 440, LD 82, Ref 22, Green 4, SNP 23, PC 4, Others 19
I'm still scratching my head at the ludicrous Green shares some pollsters persist in publishing. And this one is up two. Something is happening with the Green party. It's odd, they've had virtually no coverage yet there they are.
LLG is up 3 and RefCon down 2 in that poll. LLG 59, RefCon 35. So despite looking very different from other pollsters on individual parties it's bang on average on a left vs right basis.
They do have 812 councillors now, 4.6% of the total. As well as that being a lot of people with experience of successful campaigning, it's a lot of voters with experience of voting for the Greens not being a wasted vote.
Maybe I've underestimated them in assuming their vote would be squeezed, as it has always been squeezed before.
On the betting scandal, I suspect we'll end up with a political ban on politicians betting on politics. From what I have read there are an awful lot of cheeky punts placed by politicians, so if this goes all puritanical then it could be all kinds of fun.
There's a world of difference between betting on yourself, your party, your candidates elsewhere to win, and betting on yourself to lose. Or betting using insider knowledge on when the election will be. Especially if your job is to get your party ready for that election and you don't bother.
The challenge is that less betting means less odds. And they are a useful tool for gauging how elections are progressing. The Press and Journal this morning in a piece about Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey notes that Ross was 1% - 100/1 - to retain his seat in 2019 and do so. Useful data surely!
Someone was asking earlier - I do not hold any bets on anyone.
That's why I called it Insidergate.
Does anyone really care if politicians bet absent insider knowledge ? I certainly don't.
Let's say Tories end up with a few more seats than LibDems. Official opposition status awaits.
Might be tempting for a few Starmer-sceptic Labour MPs to jump ship to LibDems and push their numbers past the Tories. In those circs do the LibDems become official opposition with all the extra profile and perquisites?
I wasn't sure about this, but it sounds interesting.
A clear political gain for Lab and Lib, and Tories more thoroughly buried. Hmmm.
If LibDems and Tories are close in numbers with the Tories ahead slightly, we'd need a few by-elections.
Let's say Tories end up with a few more seats than LibDems. Official opposition status awaits.
Might be tempting for a few Starmer-sceptic Labour MPs to jump ship to LibDems and push their numbers past the Tories. In those circs do the LibDems become official opposition with all the extra profile and perquisites?
Might the DUP take the Tory whip to get them over the line? APNI do the same for LibDems?
Will this be being war-gamed?
Yes, we've talked about this a bit. It will be down to the Speaker to adjudicate. Much potential for all sorts of things to affect it - by-elections, defections, coalitions, perhaps His Majesty's Very Loyal Opposition, if a bunch of Labour backbenchers decided there is more room on the other side of the chamber (though that would be high levels of skulduggery, if they took up the Labour whip again in time to be candidates at the election following).
The Lib Dems would, I'd think, be concentrating on winning the seats to make it a necessary question to answer, and the Tories seem to be preoccupied with internal post-election manoeuvring.
No, the Tories are going to be in the intensive care unit or a secure psych ward. Seriously. If these polls verify they will so shocked and traumatised it will take money months for them to return to “normality” - and indeed they might not do so
Some of these polls put them on about 30 seats and behind the Lib Dems, with Farage chortling at them in the Commons
Of course. Let's wait till Friday shall we.
"It will be down to the Speaker to adjudicate."
Only if the two parties - Lib and Tory - end up on same number of seats I think.
Surely they could park the ISS somewhere like a Lagrange point or something as all that stuff could be used more usefully than polluting the Pacific? Maybe even as an emergency refuge.
Well they’re not going to get Boeing to do it, after all the crap that company is currently giving NASA.
The problem is that it will rapidly degrade and start to disintegrate once systems start being switched off, so it needs to be either pushed deep into space or brought back to Earth.
Just seems rather unambitious and wasteful to me.
Sunk cost fallacy. It would be extremely wasteful to spend a large amount of money trying to salvage what is effectively a very large lump of fairly obsolete space junk.
Even down at 36% that's still a 230 majority. LDs also the OO on that poll, even if CorRef merge...
Con 56, Lab 440, LD 82, Ref 22, Green 4, SNP 23, PC 4, Others 19
I'm still scratching my head at the ludicrous Green shares some pollsters persist in publishing. And this one is up two. Something is happening with the Green party. It's odd, they've had virtually no coverage yet there they are.
LLG is up 3 and RefCon down 2 in that poll. LLG 59, RefCon 35. So despite looking very different from other pollsters on individual parties it's bang on average on a left vs right basis.
I'm having a bit of a nervous breakdown on betting. I normally only make one of two bets: X will get most seats/votes, or X will get an overall majority. But the odds on Labour doing both are so small there's no point: I'm not betting £500 to get £5, the benefit is less than the taxi fare!
So I'm going to be a bit experimental and (if I can) bet on the little parties. So that's
Plaid Cymru: Ynys Môn and Caerfyrddin Greens: Brighton Pavilion, Bristol Central, Waveney Valley and North Herefordshire. Reform: Clacton
I don't know if I can pull this off as I don't bet online and the local bookies wet themselves when I bet on politics, so it might not be doable. So I'll let you know what happens. Who would you suggest for the Golden Shower LDs?
(Incidentally, if anybody knows better Green/Plaid/Reform targets, please say)
Surely they could park the ISS somewhere like a Lagrange point or something as all that stuff could be used more usefully than polluting the Pacific? Maybe even as an emergency refuge.
Well they’re not going to get Boeing to do it, after all the crap that company is currently giving NASA.
The problem is that it will rapidly degrade and start to disintegrate once systems start being switched off, so it needs to be either pushed deep into space or brought back to Earth.
Just seems rather unambitious and wasteful to me.
They have little choice. It has been up there since 2000, and will soon reach the end of its useful life. They already have problems with leaking air and various systems malfunctions are becoming more common. Better to plan properly to deorbit the station in a controlled manner, than have to do an emergency evacuation and an uncontrolled re-entry which could cause problems on Earth!
I guess if there is anything that can sensibly be done to re-use it SpaceX will be best placed to make such suggestions.
Even down at 36% that's still a 230 majority. LDs also the OO on that poll, even if CorRef merge...
Con 56, Lab 440, LD 82, Ref 22, Green 4, SNP 23, PC 4, Others 19
I'm still scratching my head at the ludicrous Green shares some pollsters persist in publishing. And this one is up two. Something is happening with the Green party. It's odd, they've had virtually no coverage yet there they are.
LLG is up 3 and RefCon down 2 in that poll. LLG 59, RefCon 35. So despite looking very different from other pollsters on individual parties it's bang on average on a left vs right basis.
There is a serious chance we will surprise everyone.
Greens. Outside of Bristol and Brighton what seat will they get? 0.
Waveney?
Don't bet on it. Brighton and Bristol is the maximum, I think.
Even down at 36% that's still a 230 majority. LDs also the OO on that poll, even if CorRef merge...
Con 56, Lab 440, LD 82, Ref 22, Green 4, SNP 23, PC 4, Others 19
I'm still scratching my head at the ludicrous Green shares some pollsters persist in publishing. And this one is up two. Something is happening with the Green party. It's odd, they've had virtually no coverage yet there they are.
LLG is up 3 and RefCon down 2 in that poll. LLG 59, RefCon 35. So despite looking very different from other pollsters on individual parties it's bang on average on a left vs right basis.
There is a serious chance we will surprise everyone.
Any suggestions? Serious question: which seats will you think go LD, Oh Owner Of Teslas?
💥 Not one Tory 2019 voter we spoke to is even considering voting Conservative on July 4th
💥 Tories described as "self-centred", "out of touch", "hopeless"
💥 People described the moments they turned away from the Conservatives: partygate, Covid contracts, the economy, and "the absolute disgrace" Liz Truss
💥 Sunak's early D-Day exit was singled out as "one of the biggest mistakes a politician has made": seen as "humiliating", "embarrassing", "disgusting"; one voter said they were "fuming"
💥 Rishi Sunak described as "lost", "out of touch", "false, trying to side with the general public but you just see straight through it", "smug", and a "pathetic toff"
💥 Reform UK attractive to three of our voters. Nigel Farage described as "misunderstood", "strong", "having good ideas", "great in the jungle"
💥 Keir Starmer described as "uninspiring", "rambles", "irritating", "corporate", "change", and "wishy washy". But the person who said wishy washy said that is a strength, as we "don't need a Donald Trump running our country"
💥 Labour was the most popular choice of the vast majority, with almost all planning on voting for them in one week's time
💥 But everyone said it was a vote against the Tories rather than a vote for Labour. In the words of one voter, "they've not won me, the Tories have just lost me". All said they would be open to going back to the Tories in the future, or voting for any party. This period of mass voter volatility is not going anywhere.
Surely they could park the ISS somewhere like a Lagrange point or something as all that stuff could be used more usefully than polluting the Pacific? Maybe even as an emergency refuge.
Well they’re not going to get Boeing to do it, after all the crap that company is currently giving NASA.
The problem is that it will rapidly degrade and start to disintegrate once systems start being switched off, so it needs to be either pushed deep into space or brought back to Earth.
Just seems rather unambitious and wasteful to me.
It is in a way, but it is nearing end of life. In fact, I think some modules are past end of life, and are in extension mode. (I'm talking about the US/Japan/EU/Canada modules, not the Russian ones. Goodness knows what state they're in...).
The US's Destiny module was launched 23 years ago, with (from memory) a planned life of 25 years. These things can be expected; but as the brilliant Mir space station shows, the longer something lasts past its planned life, the more it costs to maintain, and the riskier that becomes. They're talking about a possible extension of the ISS's life to 2030, and that's stretching things.
The US sections rely on the Russian sections to boost them in orbit; there were plans for a module that would make them independent of the Russian modules, but that was cancelled. The Russians were talking of taking their modules off the ISS and making them an independent station, but that has its own difficulties.
But I expect by 2030 we'll have another station in LEO. I really would like to avoid a gap in man in space - there's been someone or other up there all the time for twenty years now.
Even down at 36% that's still a 230 majority. LDs also the OO on that poll, even if CorRef merge...
Con 56, Lab 440, LD 82, Ref 22, Green 4, SNP 23, PC 4, Others 19
I'm still scratching my head at the ludicrous Green shares some pollsters persist in publishing. And this one is up two. Something is happening with the Green party. It's odd, they've had virtually no coverage yet there they are.
LLG is up 3 and RefCon down 2 in that poll. LLG 59, RefCon 35. So despite looking very different from other pollsters on individual parties it's bang on average on a left vs right basis.
The Greens' concentration on their handful of target seats is remarkable. Every Green activist round here seems to be spending their waking hours in Bristol Central. They haven't bothered at all in either Oxford seat, where they had a chance of scoring a decent second.
Which makes the high national Green %age look doubly implausible.
Apols for quoting at length, but I think is really good. From a guy called Nick Tyrone who does a weekly email I subscribe to, 'The Week in Brexitland'. He's on twitter as well. Reflects a lot of my thoughts as to how we got here:
The result of the EU referendum has long been misunderstood by both sides of the Remain-Leave debate. It was neither some sort of Russian PSYOP project gone wild, nor a rational choice for a better future made by the British electorate. It was a cry for help, a wilfully destructive act by the section of the British electorate who made the difference. They were handed a brick and told not to, under any circumstances, throw it through the store window - and they went ahead and hurled it through as an act of defiance. “Deal with that mess,” was the collective voice of Brexit. “Now maybe you’ll be forced to fix things.” The chaos that consumed parliament in the years following the vote was not against the “will of the people”, but a furtherance of what they wanted to happen when they voted for Brexit. They wanted to disrupt the “natural order” and make the political classes squirm. The electorate succeeded in this goal.
In a sense, the Tories getting annihilated by the electorate is the 2016 result coming full circle, back to the only place it was ever going to end up - the Conservative civil war that created Brexit eating the mothership. The same impulse that drove people to do something slightly crazy, slightly drastic, stepping into the unknown in 2016 has driven them to do the same again in 2024 in a very different direction. “You think we won’t destroy the Conservative party? Watch us.”
The warnings about “super majorities” sound remarkably like the “Brexit will cost every household £4,000” scare stories from eight years ago. People aren’t listening. They don’t care. They feel angry and betrayed and they finally have a chance to do something about it, namely destroying the governing party in the most brutal fashion imaginable. The electorate are being given numerous ways to do it, as well. If you feel angry from the right, you can vote Reform and destroy the Tories that way; if you want to make sure they get destroyed, you can vote Labour; if you feel angry from a different angle, there’s the Lib Dems to consider. So many ways of destroying the Conservative party out there to choose from this time round.
What is humorous to watch is Conservative politicians, about to have their careers ended in many circumstances, who cannot begin to fathom that the same destructive forces which gave us Brexit in 2016 have now turned around and are set to annihilate them as well. The winds of hell they unleashed have blown back and obliterated the Tories. You could almost feel sorry for them, if you really tried to.
Interesting and a lot of truth in it I think. What he misses is that, for many, the vote was less a cry for help, more an act of desperation. And none of the parties have learnt that. This is not just a problem for the Tories but in the longer term for Labour as well. Business as usual is no longer an option and if they try to make it so they will go the same way as the Tories in 5 or 10 years time.
Exactly right. Brexit was also a scream of anger about immigration. We all know that - I voted Leave for sovereignty and democracy reasons like you - but I wholly accept that many of my fellow Britons were demanding: LOWER IMMIGRATION
And what did the Tories do once they “got Brexit done”? They raised inmigration to the highest levels in our history. 2.4 millions in 3 years. Utterly insane and criminally irresponsible and for this and mainly this they deserve to die. You cannot betray voters like this, you absolutely cannot
Immigration was obviously a factor, but I think it was more general than that. If we imagine a present where there had been zero net migration since Britain left the EU, I don't think the mood in the country would be particularly different. A little less pressure on housing, more of a recruitment crisis in the NHS, overall you'd still have a great frustration with the status quo.
Could it have been (whisper it) that people just didn't want Britain to be part of the EU?
Let's say Tories end up with a few more seats than LibDems. Official opposition status awaits.
Might be tempting for a few Starmer-sceptic Labour MPs to jump ship to LibDems and push their numbers past the Tories. In those circs do the LibDems become official opposition with all the extra profile and perquisites?
Might the DUP take the Tory whip to get them over the line? APNI do the same for LibDems?
Will this be being war-gamed?
Yes, we've talked about this a bit. It will be down to the Speaker to adjudicate. Much potential for all sorts of things to affect it - by-elections, defections, coalitions, perhaps His Majesty's Very Loyal Opposition, if a bunch of Labour backbenchers decided there is more room on the other side of the chamber (though that would be high levels of skulduggery, if they took up the Labour whip again in time to be candidates at the election following).
The Lib Dems would, I'd think, be concentrating on winning the seats to make it a necessary question to answer, and the Tories seem to be preoccupied with internal post-election manoeuvring.
No, the Tories are going to be in the intensive care unit or a secure psych ward. Seriously. If these polls verify they will so shocked and traumatised it will take money months for them to return to “normality” - and indeed they might not do so
Some of these polls put them on about 30 seats and behind the Lib Dems, with Farage chortling at them in the Commons
Of course. Let's wait till Friday shall we.
"It will be down to the Speaker to adjudicate."
Only if the two parties - Lib and Tory - end up on same number of seats I think.
Nigel Evans likely has lost his seat in this scenario so all three positions below Hoyle will be vacant. I assume it would be 1 Labour, 1 Conservative, 1 Lib Dem for deputy speaker/1st deputy ways and means, 2nd deputy ways and means. Possibly it'd come down to Alliance vs UUP elected in Northern Ireland to decide who the LOTO is in this scenario, although Rishi would likely resign as an MP immediately meaning it would be Davey.
Surely they could park the ISS somewhere like a Lagrange point or something as all that stuff could be used more usefully than polluting the Pacific? Maybe even as an emergency refuge.
It's falling apart. Each orbit creates a thermal cycle - day/night. So every 90 minutes, blowtorched, then frozen. The result is fatigue through the whole structure. It's been up for longer than it was designed for.
It is designed for LEO only - so putting it above the Van Allen belts would be a bad idea.
It would be no use as a refuge - unless actively maintained, by a crew, it would become unusable in days.
In addition, changing orbital planes, once in orbit is extremely difficult and requires a lot of fuel. No spacecraft built, to date, can simply change to a radically different orbit if it feels like it. So getting to it as a refuge would not be possible.
This isn't a daft idea, as unmanned systems need their own lobby within the military, or they'll lost out on funding to the lobby of generals, air chiefs, and admirals desperate to protect their legacy systems, for what are effectively sentimental reasons.
Ukraine are likely doing it for pragmatic reasons. We should so something similar.
Apols for quoting at length, but I think is really good. From a guy called Nick Tyrone who does a weekly email I subscribe to, 'The Week in Brexitland'. He's on twitter as well. Reflects a lot of my thoughts as to how we got here:
The result of the EU referendum has long been misunderstood by both sides of the Remain-Leave debate. It was neither some sort of Russian PSYOP project gone wild, nor a rational choice for a better future made by the British electorate. It was a cry for help, a wilfully destructive act by the section of the British electorate who made the difference. They were handed a brick and told not to, under any circumstances, throw it through the store window - and they went ahead and hurled it through as an act of defiance. “Deal with that mess,” was the collective voice of Brexit. “Now maybe you’ll be forced to fix things.” The chaos that consumed parliament in the years following the vote was not against the “will of the people”, but a furtherance of what they wanted to happen when they voted for Brexit. They wanted to disrupt the “natural order” and make the political classes squirm. The electorate succeeded in this goal.
In a sense, the Tories getting annihilated by the electorate is the 2016 result coming full circle, back to the only place it was ever going to end up - the Conservative civil war that created Brexit eating the mothership. The same impulse that drove people to do something slightly crazy, slightly drastic, stepping into the unknown in 2016 has driven them to do the same again in 2024 in a very different direction. “You think we won’t destroy the Conservative party? Watch us.”
The warnings about “super majorities” sound remarkably like the “Brexit will cost every household £4,000” scare stories from eight years ago. People aren’t listening. They don’t care. They feel angry and betrayed and they finally have a chance to do something about it, namely destroying the governing party in the most brutal fashion imaginable. The electorate are being given numerous ways to do it, as well. If you feel angry from the right, you can vote Reform and destroy the Tories that way; if you want to make sure they get destroyed, you can vote Labour; if you feel angry from a different angle, there’s the Lib Dems to consider. So many ways of destroying the Conservative party out there to choose from this time round.
What is humorous to watch is Conservative politicians, about to have their careers ended in many circumstances, who cannot begin to fathom that the same destructive forces which gave us Brexit in 2016 have now turned around and are set to annihilate them as well. The winds of hell they unleashed have blown back and obliterated the Tories. You could almost feel sorry for them, if you really tried to.
Interesting and a lot of truth in it I think. What he misses is that, for many, the vote was less a cry for help, more an act of desperation. And none of the parties have learnt that. This is not just a problem for the Tories but in the longer term for Labour as well. Business as usual is no longer an option and if they try to make it so they will go the same way as the Tories in 5 or 10 years time.
Exactly right. Brexit was also a scream of anger about immigration. We all know that - I voted Leave for sovereignty and democracy reasons like you - but I wholly accept that many of my fellow Britons were demanding: LOWER IMMIGRATION
And what did the Tories do once they “got Brexit done”? They raised inmigration to the highest levels in our history. 2.4 millions in 3 years. Utterly insane and criminally irresponsible and for this and mainly this they deserve to die. You cannot betray voters like this, you absolutely cannot
Immigration was obviously a factor, but I think it was more general than that. If we imagine a present where there had been zero net migration since Britain left the EU, I don't think the mood in the country would be particularly different. A little less pressure on housing, more of a recruitment crisis in the NHS, overall you'd still have a great frustration with the status quo.
Could it have been (whisper it) that people just didn't want Britain to be part of the EU?
A travesty of democracy if so, as (setting aside Nats and NI) the 59% left-leaning LLG vote would get 526 seats, where the 35% REF/CON right-leaning vote would get just 78. I say this as a person broadly Of The Left (as I am moreso a person Of Democracy).
Surely they could park the ISS somewhere like a Lagrange point or something as all that stuff could be used more usefully than polluting the Pacific? Maybe even as an emergency refuge.
It's falling apart. Each orbit creates a thermal cycle - day/night. So every 90 minutes, blowtorched, then frozen. The result is fatigue through the whole structure. It's been up for longer than it was designed for.
It is designed for LEO only - so putting it above the Van Allen belts would be a bad idea.
It would be no use as a refuge - unless actively maintained, by a crew, it would become unusable in days.
In addition, changing orbital planes, once in orbit is extremely difficult and requires a lot of fuel. No spacecraft built, to date, can simply change to a radically different orbit if it feels like it. So getting to it as a refuge would not be possible.
A reminder that "For All Mankind" was fiction, not a how to manual.
💥 Not one Tory 2019 voter we spoke to is even considering voting Conservative on July 4th
💥 Tories described as "self-centred", "out of touch", "hopeless"
💥 People described the moments they turned away from the Conservatives: partygate, Covid contracts, the economy, and "the absolute disgrace" Liz Truss
💥 Sunak's early D-Day exit was singled out as "one of the biggest mistakes a politician has made": seen as "humiliating", "embarrassing", "disgusting"; one voter said they were "fuming"
💥 Rishi Sunak described as "lost", "out of touch", "false, trying to side with the general public but you just see straight through it", "smug", and a "pathetic toff"
💥 Reform UK attractive to three of our voters. Nigel Farage described as "misunderstood", "strong", "having good ideas", "great in the jungle"
💥 Keir Starmer described as "uninspiring", "rambles", "irritating", "corporate", "change", and "wishy washy". But the person who said wishy washy said that is a strength, as we "don't need a Donald Trump running our country"
💥 Labour was the most popular choice of the vast majority, with almost all planning on voting for them in one week's time
💥 But everyone said it was a vote against the Tories rather than a vote for Labour. In the words of one voter, "they've not won me, the Tories have just lost me". All said they would be open to going back to the Tories in the future, or voting for any party. This period of mass voter volatility is not going anywhere.
My prediction of a one-term Labour government that then also gets flushed down the toilet looking possible then.
Yep.
In five years time we will have higher taxes, immigration will still be high, and the economy will still be on life support - or even worse, due to a combination of higher taxes and structural decline.
Pretty much every election since the GFC has been "this is broke, fix this" and successive governments fail to fix anything.
It shows Labour 429 seats, Conservative 125, Liberal Democrat 50, SNP 17, Plaid Cymru 4, Reform UK 3, and Green 3, giving an overall Labour majority of 210.
That forecast uses the current UK-Elect default forecasting settings, using the actual candidate list and taking some account of constituency opinion polls, by-elections since 2019, Brexit referendum leave/remain percentages, incumbency, and tactical voting among other factors. There are still a lot of seats that are marginal, and considerable uncertainty about the best forecasting algorithms to use. This forecast combines various methods, including both proportional and UNS elements. Although the algorithm is targeted at forecasting the overall situation more than individual seats the forecast top three in every constituency can be found here: https://www.ukelect.co.uk/20240627ForecastUK/UKTop3Forecast.csv
Even down at 36% that's still a 230 majority. LDs also the OO on that poll, even if CorRef merge...
Con 56, Lab 440, LD 82, Ref 22, Green 4, SNP 23, PC 4, Others 19
I'm still scratching my head at the ludicrous Green shares some pollsters persist in publishing. And this one is up two. Something is happening with the Green party. It's odd, they've had virtually no coverage yet there they are.
LLG is up 3 and RefCon down 2 in that poll. LLG 59, RefCon 35. So despite looking very different from other pollsters on individual parties it's bang on average on a left vs right basis.
There is a serious chance we will surprise everyone.
Greens. Outside of Bristol and Brighton what seat will they get? 0.
I'm not entirely convinced they will win Brighton this time after the goings on with the council in recent years.
💥 Not one Tory 2019 voter we spoke to is even considering voting Conservative on July 4th
💥 Tories described as "self-centred", "out of touch", "hopeless"
💥 People described the moments they turned away from the Conservatives: partygate, Covid contracts, the economy, and "the absolute disgrace" Liz Truss
💥 Sunak's early D-Day exit was singled out as "one of the biggest mistakes a politician has made": seen as "humiliating", "embarrassing", "disgusting"; one voter said they were "fuming"
💥 Rishi Sunak described as "lost", "out of touch", "false, trying to side with the general public but you just see straight through it", "smug", and a "pathetic toff"
💥 Reform UK attractive to three of our voters. Nigel Farage described as "misunderstood", "strong", "having good ideas", "great in the jungle"
💥 Keir Starmer described as "uninspiring", "rambles", "irritating", "corporate", "change", and "wishy washy". But the person who said wishy washy said that is a strength, as we "don't need a Donald Trump running our country"
💥 Labour was the most popular choice of the vast majority, with almost all planning on voting for them in one week's time
💥 But everyone said it was a vote against the Tories rather than a vote for Labour. In the words of one voter, "they've not won me, the Tories have just lost me". All said they would be open to going back to the Tories in the future, or voting for any party. This period of mass voter volatility is not going anywhere.
So for the three most recent polls there is quite a lot of consistency. Herding in the final week?
Lab 39,40, 42 so let’s call it LAB 40% Con 20,20, 23 so let’s call it CON 22% to be generous RFM 14, 15, 16 so RFM 15% LibDem 11,12,12 so let’s call it LibDem 12% GRN 5,6,6 so let’s call it GREEN 6%
Fed into EC without tactical that would yield a Lab majority of c. 230 with the tories and LibDems vying for second place on around 70.
I still think the Conservative vote share will rise a little and that Labour and Reform may slip a little further but I accept that time is limited.
I think Farage has Ratnered the Reform brand with his position snugly in Putin's small intestine on Ukraine. There will be a close correlation between those who are proud of the UK's assistance to Ukraine and those who might have considered voting Reform. I genuinely can't see Reform coming close to the Conservative vote.
Perhaps my only bright spot of this whole election would be Farage losing in Clacton.
Rare agreement by me with a Tory. Farage losing would be magnificent, and I would get even more joy from that than from my eager desire for JRM to be decapitated.
I would certainly share your joy in both cases.
Landslide defeat for govt, Reform damp squib and Lib Dems surprising on the upside are my wish list for next week.
That plus Galloway losing in Rochdale, Corbyn losing in Islington and some weird and surprising results to keep the interest up.
Farage losing in Clacton has to top any wishlist.
With an ideal result being Farage comes third (again!) which is why I'm so annoyed Labour have pulled their candidate as it seemed quite plausible until then.
In Clacton some ex Labour voters will vote for Farage
TBH I think Farage being elected into an actual job, where he's expected to do things like casework and other boring stuff, might actually shoot his fox.
Plenty of MPs simply don't do the day to day stuff. I've seen my MP in public once in the last Parliament - People complain about his response to their requests on facebook, but ultimately it's only a tiny % who ever contact an MP. He may well be busy with constituency work but I don't think many people notice either way, and he's going to be in with a much bigger majority this time around whatever he did.
Farage is probably the political figure with the biggest personal following in the country. I'd imagine the people voting for him in Clacton will be more happy that he's prominent nationally, rather than noticing if he visited a local charity, or helped Bob with his Council tax problems.
I built up Labour support in Broxtowe from to -9891 to -389 from 1992 to 2010 (winning in 1997, 2001 and 2005), with similar national results in 1992 and 2010; this was mainly due to constituency work and I was never prominent nationally. There was an awful lot of detailed work involved, as well as general political argument. So it can be done, but it's obviously easier to cut a dash with nationally-recognised flourishes.
Even down at 36% that's still a 230 majority. LDs also the OO on that poll, even if CorRef merge...
Con 56, Lab 440, LD 82, Ref 22, Green 4, SNP 23, PC 4, Others 19
I'm still scratching my head at the ludicrous Green shares some pollsters persist in publishing. And this one is up two. Something is happening with the Green party. It's odd, they've had virtually no coverage yet there they are.
LLG is up 3 and RefCon down 2 in that poll. LLG 59, RefCon 35. So despite looking very different from other pollsters on individual parties it's bang on average on a left vs right basis.
There is a serious chance we will surprise everyone.
Greens. Outside of Bristol and Brighton what seat will they get? 0.
Waveney?
Don't bet on it. Brighton and Bristol is the maximum, I think.
I'm not sure. Everybody hates Blue: even the Blues are clawing their face off. So votes are sloshing to Labour. But Keir Starmer's Ming Vase strategy puts a cap on things, so I reckon there's going to be a slosh back. It's gotta go somewhere, I just don't know where. Hence The Year Of Weeny Parties.
A travesty of democracy if so, as (setting aside Nats and NI) the 59% left-leaning LLG vote would get 526 seats, where the 35% REF/CON right-leaning vote would get just 78. I say this as a person broadly Of The Left (as I am moreso a person Of Democracy).
I don't think Labour entering government on 36% is particularly good for them though. Even though the majority will be bigger than Blair's it's nowhere near a 1997 position. More like starting in 2003 or some such.
Apols for quoting at length, but I think is really good. From a guy called Nick Tyrone who does a weekly email I subscribe to, 'The Week in Brexitland'. He's on twitter as well. Reflects a lot of my thoughts as to how we got here:
The result of the EU referendum has long been misunderstood by both sides of the Remain-Leave debate. It was neither some sort of Russian PSYOP project gone wild, nor a rational choice for a better future made by the British electorate. It was a cry for help, a wilfully destructive act by the section of the British electorate who made the difference. They were handed a brick and told not to, under any circumstances, throw it through the store window - and they went ahead and hurled it through as an act of defiance. “Deal with that mess,” was the collective voice of Brexit. “Now maybe you’ll be forced to fix things.” The chaos that consumed parliament in the years following the vote was not against the “will of the people”, but a furtherance of what they wanted to happen when they voted for Brexit. They wanted to disrupt the “natural order” and make the political classes squirm. The electorate succeeded in this goal.
In a sense, the Tories getting annihilated by the electorate is the 2016 result coming full circle, back to the only place it was ever going to end up - the Conservative civil war that created Brexit eating the mothership. The same impulse that drove people to do something slightly crazy, slightly drastic, stepping into the unknown in 2016 has driven them to do the same again in 2024 in a very different direction. “You think we won’t destroy the Conservative party? Watch us.”
The warnings about “super majorities” sound remarkably like the “Brexit will cost every household £4,000” scare stories from eight years ago. People aren’t listening. They don’t care. They feel angry and betrayed and they finally have a chance to do something about it, namely destroying the governing party in the most brutal fashion imaginable. The electorate are being given numerous ways to do it, as well. If you feel angry from the right, you can vote Reform and destroy the Tories that way; if you want to make sure they get destroyed, you can vote Labour; if you feel angry from a different angle, there’s the Lib Dems to consider. So many ways of destroying the Conservative party out there to choose from this time round.
What is humorous to watch is Conservative politicians, about to have their careers ended in many circumstances, who cannot begin to fathom that the same destructive forces which gave us Brexit in 2016 have now turned around and are set to annihilate them as well. The winds of hell they unleashed have blown back and obliterated the Tories. You could almost feel sorry for them, if you really tried to.
Interesting and a lot of truth in it I think. What he misses is that, for many, the vote was less a cry for help, more an act of desperation. And none of the parties have learnt that. This is not just a problem for the Tories but in the longer term for Labour as well. Business as usual is no longer an option and if they try to make it so they will go the same way as the Tories in 5 or 10 years time.
Exactly right. Brexit was also a scream of anger about immigration. We all know that - I voted Leave for sovereignty and democracy reasons like you - but I wholly accept that many of my fellow Britons were demanding: LOWER IMMIGRATION
And what did the Tories do once they “got Brexit done”? They raised inmigration to the highest levels in our history. 2.4 millions in 3 years. Utterly insane and criminally irresponsible and for this and mainly this they deserve to die. You cannot betray voters like this, you absolutely cannot
Immigration was obviously a factor, but I think it was more general than that. If we imagine a present where there had been zero net migration since Britain left the EU, I don't think the mood in the country would be particularly different. A little less pressure on housing, more of a recruitment crisis in the NHS, overall you'd still have a great frustration with the status quo.
Could it have been (whisper it) that people just didn't want Britain to be part of the EU?
There are some of you, obviously. But could it be... that you were always in the minority ?
💥 Not one Tory 2019 voter we spoke to is even considering voting Conservative on July 4th
💥 Tories described as "self-centred", "out of touch", "hopeless"
💥 People described the moments they turned away from the Conservatives: partygate, Covid contracts, the economy, and "the absolute disgrace" Liz Truss
💥 Sunak's early D-Day exit was singled out as "one of the biggest mistakes a politician has made": seen as "humiliating", "embarrassing", "disgusting"; one voter said they were "fuming"
💥 Rishi Sunak described as "lost", "out of touch", "false, trying to side with the general public but you just see straight through it", "smug", and a "pathetic toff"
💥 Reform UK attractive to three of our voters. Nigel Farage described as "misunderstood", "strong", "having good ideas", "great in the jungle"
💥 Keir Starmer described as "uninspiring", "rambles", "irritating", "corporate", "change", and "wishy washy". But the person who said wishy washy said that is a strength, as we "don't need a Donald Trump running our country"
💥 Labour was the most popular choice of the vast majority, with almost all planning on voting for them in one week's time
💥 But everyone said it was a vote against the Tories rather than a vote for Labour. In the words of one voter, "they've not won me, the Tories have just lost me". All said they would be open to going back to the Tories in the future, or voting for any party. This period of mass voter volatility is not going anywhere.
My prediction of a one-term Labour government that then also gets flushed down the toilet looking possible then.
The same set of forces that have demolished the possibility of the Tories forming the next government are still in play. The formula is: Being the government in the reality of the present moment; There being a possible alternative government.
Labour have the job of moral and hopeful leadership, currently lacking; The Tories have the job of being a possible alternative.
If both fail in this the next election will be even more interesting than this one.
Even down at 36% that's still a 230 majority. LDs also the OO on that poll, even if CorRef merge...
Con 56, Lab 440, LD 82, Ref 22, Green 4, SNP 23, PC 4, Others 19
I'm still scratching my head at the ludicrous Green shares some pollsters persist in publishing. And this one is up two. Something is happening with the Green party. It's odd, they've had virtually no coverage yet there they are.
LLG is up 3 and RefCon down 2 in that poll. LLG 59, RefCon 35. So despite looking very different from other pollsters on individual parties it's bang on average on a left vs right basis.
A lot of discussion of the Reform vote and whether it would fold back into Con but not so much about Green folding back into Lab. Since the highest Green vote in a GE is 3.8% I believe (2.7% last time), 8% would seem unlikely.
“Keir Starmer has told England fans there is “too much criticism” of Gareth Southgate’s team after their group stage performances in Euro 2024 – and urged supporters to “get behind them”.
Speaking on the campaign trail in Staffordshire, he added: “Get them over the line because this is a really important competition.
“England always do a bit of this at the beginning of competitions ... but it’s a brilliant squad of players, all had great seasons for their respective clubs. Just get behind the team. I want less of the criticism, more of the support”
Today's photo is a screenshot from the Post Office Inquiry - I flicked over for 2 seconds and saw this..
The important thing here is that remember this is a banking system - if what is written in that email doesn't scare you enough to resign immediately nothing will...
The first para - I can't make sense of it. The writer says 'here are some examples of X' but then says 'we are not suggesting that X has happened'. Eh??
I think what he is trying to say is that
1) There are duplicates 2) These occurred when copying to the audit server 3) There are not duplicates in the original data. So it's quite alright that there duplicates in the audit data.
The smell of bullshit from this document is overwhelming.
Surely they could park the ISS somewhere like a Lagrange point or something as all that stuff could be used more usefully than polluting the Pacific? Maybe even as an emergency refuge.
Well they’re not going to get Boeing to do it, after all the crap that company is currently giving NASA.
The problem is that it will rapidly degrade and start to disintegrate once systems start being switched off, so it needs to be either pushed deep into space or brought back to Earth.
Just seems rather unambitious and wasteful to me.
Getting to one of the stable Lagrange points (L4 or L5) needs roughly the same delta-v as getting to the moon, about 4km/s
The delta-v needed to do a controlled deorbit, by contrast, is only on the order of 100m/s.
So it's much, much easier to de-orbit than to park it at L5.
And you really don’t want a mess of broken-up space junk taking valuable space at a Lagrange Point.
Labour drifting down as expected as we approach the day. Was always going to happen.
What has NOT happened is any drift up for the Tories - its gone down too!
Either the polls are massively wrong, and Reform is hugely overstated, or we about to see something extraordinary. If this was the result, and Labour achieved a huge majority on that basis, I can see Labour doing absolutely nothing about the voting system, with the exception of lowering the age to 16 year olds up. Why change if the system works for you? But generally getting a third of the voters should not imply a massive vote of confidence!
Even down at 36% that's still a 230 majority. LDs also the OO on that poll, even if CorRef merge...
Con 56, Lab 440, LD 82, Ref 22, Green 4, SNP 23, PC 4, Others 19
I'm still scratching my head at the ludicrous Green shares some pollsters persist in publishing. And this one is up two. Something is happening with the Green party. It's odd, they've had virtually no coverage yet there they are.
LLG is up 3 and RefCon down 2 in that poll. LLG 59, RefCon 35. So despite looking very different from other pollsters on individual parties it's bang on average on a left vs right basis.
A lot of discussion of the Reform vote and whether it would fold back into Con but not so much about Green folding back into Lab. Since the highest Green vote in a GE is 3.8% I believe (2.7% last time), 8% would seem unlikely.
Possibly it doesn't ?
The big picture electoral picture is such a forgone conclusion and Starmer has hardly endeared himself to the furthest left aka Green recently. I don't think it'll be 8% but surely it's primed for a record.
A travesty of democracy if so, as (setting aside Nats and NI) the 59% left-leaning LLG vote would get 526 seats, where the 35% REF/CON right-leaning vote would get just 78. I say this as a person broadly Of The Left (as I am moreso a person Of Democracy).
I don't think Labour entering government on 36% is particularly good for them though. Even though the majority will be bigger than Blair's it's nowhere near a 1997 position. More like starting in 2003 or some such.
It's been said many times though that some of that is tactical. I would vote Labour in a PR-world but as we have FPTP I am going to vote LD as the only hope of defeating the incumbent Tory in my constituency. I am sure the boost and LD numbers reflects a lot of people doing the same.
Even down at 36% that's still a 230 majority. LDs also the OO on that poll, even if CorRef merge...
Con 56, Lab 440, LD 82, Ref 22, Green 4, SNP 23, PC 4, Others 19
I'm still scratching my head at the ludicrous Green shares some pollsters persist in publishing. And this one is up two. Something is happening with the Green party. It's odd, they've had virtually no coverage yet there they are.
LLG is up 3 and RefCon down 2 in that poll. LLG 59, RefCon 35. So despite looking very different from other pollsters on individual parties it's bang on average on a left vs right basis.
I'm having a bit of a nervous breakdown on betting. I normally only make one of two bets: X will get most seats/votes, or X will get an overall majority. But the odds on Labour doing both are so small there's no point: I'm not betting £500 to get £5, the benefit is less than the taxi fare!
So I'm going to be a bit experimental and (if I can) bet on the little parties. So that's
Plaid Cymru: Ynys Môn and Caerfyrddin Greens: Brighton Pavilion, Bristol Central, Waveney Valley and North Herefordshire. Reform: Clacton
I don't know if I can pull this off as I don't bet online and the local bookies wet themselves when I bet on politics, so it might not be doable. So I'll let you know what happens. Who would you suggest for the Golden Shower LDs?
(Incidentally, if anybody knows better Green/Plaid/Reform targets, please say)
Reform odds in Ashfield are around evens.
I'm not sure which side of that I would want to be tbh.
A travesty of democracy if so, as (setting aside Nats and NI) the 59% left-leaning LLG vote would get 526 seats, where the 35% REF/CON right-leaning vote would get just 78. I say this as a person broadly Of The Left (as I am moreso a person Of Democracy).
Not a travesty. Everyone knows our rules. To come first in 440 seats is open to all comers on the same terms and means you have done tons better than all the rest.
The right wing split vote is more than about maths. It's about the failure of the centre right to operate well within our system. This involves a massive lack of leadership. Other systems are available. This one has great merits.
Farage is a fucking idiot. He would now - I am sure - be well ahead of the Tories if he hadn’t vomited up his foolishness about Putin
The people are desperate for alternative to the Tories AND Labour - but they’re not gonna vote for a party that thinks “Hitler had his reasons”
Funny how election campaigns always cause politicians to say stupid things that damage their own position, such as Starmer yesterday with his Bangladesh comments.
I’ve changed my mind about ile de sein. It is even better than I thought and if any PBers follow me here I seriously recommend staying one night, because it must be incredible in the dark when the trippers go home. Sadly I have to leave!
What I’ve since learned
It has a cholera cemetery - one cholera epidemic is the reason the women switched to wearing black hats (unique in Brittany where they famously wore white hats)
When the fishing was bad the men relied on the women to make money from seaweed (turning it into soda in furnaces) or by “selling lichen”
The beaches and seas are fervent with wildlife: seals, dolphins, many many birds
There is an Iron Age shell midden
The church is built on a 12th century chapel which was itself built on two parallel 6000 year old megalithic alignments - the menhir by the mayor who told me about the boche in the u boat slaughtering the fishermen is the last of the alignments
The island has no natural water. None. They used to rely on “skimming rainwater”. It is said that when a man from ile dr sein greets you his first words will be “give me water”
Plus it was home to those ancient virgin female druids and then evil witches and then infamous wreckers
It is probably the most interesting place I have been in France. It’s also rather lovely in a sad way. The closest comparison is st kilda - which only just pips it because kilda has that epic grandeur
💥 Not one Tory 2019 voter we spoke to is even considering voting Conservative on July 4th
💥 Tories described as "self-centred", "out of touch", "hopeless"
💥 People described the moments they turned away from the Conservatives: partygate, Covid contracts, the economy, and "the absolute disgrace" Liz Truss
💥 Sunak's early D-Day exit was singled out as "one of the biggest mistakes a politician has made": seen as "humiliating", "embarrassing", "disgusting"; one voter said they were "fuming"
💥 Rishi Sunak described as "lost", "out of touch", "false, trying to side with the general public but you just see straight through it", "smug", and a "pathetic toff"
💥 Reform UK attractive to three of our voters. Nigel Farage described as "misunderstood", "strong", "having good ideas", "great in the jungle"
💥 Keir Starmer described as "uninspiring", "rambles", "irritating", "corporate", "change", and "wishy washy". But the person who said wishy washy said that is a strength, as we "don't need a Donald Trump running our country"
💥 Labour was the most popular choice of the vast majority, with almost all planning on voting for them in one week's time
💥 But everyone said it was a vote against the Tories rather than a vote for Labour. In the words of one voter, "they've not won me, the Tories have just lost me". All said they would be open to going back to the Tories in the future, or voting for any party. This period of mass voter volatility is not going anywhere.
My prediction of a one-term Labour government that then also gets flushed down the toilet looking possible then.
Yep.
In five years time we will have higher taxes, immigration will still be high, and the economy will still be on life support - or even worse, due to a combination of higher taxes and structural decline.
Pretty much every election since the GFC has been "this is broke, fix this" and successive governments fail to fix anything.
At some point people might start to realise that the problems are structural (mostly down to worsening age structure of the population and the ills of consumer capitalism) and not amenable to government action.
But no, they will still fall for politicians selling snake oil scams like Brexit. Anything other than have to accept that they need to work longer, pay more and get less.
A travesty of democracy if so, as (setting aside Nats and NI) the 59% left-leaning LLG vote would get 526 seats, where the 35% REF/CON right-leaning vote would get just 78. I say this as a person broadly Of The Left (as I am moreso a person Of Democracy).
Not a travesty. Everyone knows our rules. To come first in 440 seats is open to all comers on the same terms and means you have done tons better than all the rest.
The right wing split vote is more than about maths. It's about the failure of the centre right to operate well within our system. This involves a massive lack of leadership. Other systems are available. This one has great merits.
Providing representative democracy not being one of them.
Farage is a fucking idiot. He would now - I am sure - be well ahead of the Tories if he hadn’t vomited up his foolishness about Putin
The people are desperate for alternative to the Tories AND Labour - but they’re not gonna vote for a party that thinks “Hitler had his reasons”
Funny how election campaigns always cause politicians to say stupid things that damage their own position, such as Starmer yesterday with his Bangladesh comments.
Do we know that will actually hurt him?
Apsana Begum was very angry so his own team are not impressed.
With such voter volatility, the pressure on Labour to deliver in the next 5 years is going to be massive. Could throw up a few interesting policies / reforms / points of contention, as inevitably they need to go to the country with a half decent record sell
Apols for quoting at length, but I think is really good. From a guy called Nick Tyrone who does a weekly email I subscribe to, 'The Week in Brexitland'. He's on twitter as well. Reflects a lot of my thoughts as to how we got here:
The result of the EU referendum has long been misunderstood by both sides of the Remain-Leave debate. It was neither some sort of Russian PSYOP project gone wild, nor a rational choice for a better future made by the British electorate. It was a cry for help, a wilfully destructive act by the section of the British electorate who made the difference. They were handed a brick and told not to, under any circumstances, throw it through the store window - and they went ahead and hurled it through as an act of defiance. “Deal with that mess,” was the collective voice of Brexit. “Now maybe you’ll be forced to fix things.” The chaos that consumed parliament in the years following the vote was not against the “will of the people”, but a furtherance of what they wanted to happen when they voted for Brexit. They wanted to disrupt the “natural order” and make the political classes squirm. The electorate succeeded in this goal.
In a sense, the Tories getting annihilated by the electorate is the 2016 result coming full circle, back to the only place it was ever going to end up - the Conservative civil war that created Brexit eating the mothership. The same impulse that drove people to do something slightly crazy, slightly drastic, stepping into the unknown in 2016 has driven them to do the same again in 2024 in a very different direction. “You think we won’t destroy the Conservative party? Watch us.”
The warnings about “super majorities” sound remarkably like the “Brexit will cost every household £4,000” scare stories from eight years ago. People aren’t listening. They don’t care. They feel angry and betrayed and they finally have a chance to do something about it, namely destroying the governing party in the most brutal fashion imaginable. The electorate are being given numerous ways to do it, as well. If you feel angry from the right, you can vote Reform and destroy the Tories that way; if you want to make sure they get destroyed, you can vote Labour; if you feel angry from a different angle, there’s the Lib Dems to consider. So many ways of destroying the Conservative party out there to choose from this time round.
What is humorous to watch is Conservative politicians, about to have their careers ended in many circumstances, who cannot begin to fathom that the same destructive forces which gave us Brexit in 2016 have now turned around and are set to annihilate them as well. The winds of hell they unleashed have blown back and obliterated the Tories. You could almost feel sorry for them, if you really tried to.
Interesting and a lot of truth in it I think. What he misses is that, for many, the vote was less a cry for help, more an act of desperation. And none of the parties have learnt that. This is not just a problem for the Tories but in the longer term for Labour as well. Business as usual is no longer an option and if they try to make it so they will go the same way as the Tories in 5 or 10 years time.
Exactly right. Brexit was also a scream of anger about immigration. We all know that - I voted Leave for sovereignty and democracy reasons like you - but I wholly accept that many of my fellow Britons were demanding: LOWER IMMIGRATION
And what did the Tories do once they “got Brexit done”? They raised inmigration to the highest levels in our history. 2.4 millions in 3 years. Utterly insane and criminally irresponsible and for this and mainly this they deserve to die. You cannot betray voters like this, you absolutely cannot
Immigration was obviously a factor, but I think it was more general than that. If we imagine a present where there had been zero net migration since Britain left the EU, I don't think the mood in the country would be particularly different. A little less pressure on housing, more of a recruitment crisis in the NHS, overall you'd still have a great frustration with the status quo.
Could it have been (whisper it) that people just didn't want Britain to be part of the EU?
There are some of you, obviously. But could it be... that you were always in the minority ?
After immigration, more money for the NHS was the most frequent reason I heard for leaving the EU. That was, after all, one of the main selling points of the leave campaign. Those people expected the money that was "wasted" on the EU to be diverted to the NHS and that the NHS would consequently be able to provide a much better service. Instead, they've seen the NHS coming close to collapse and are left wondering what the hell happened to the money that was supposed to be used to improve it.
Let's say Tories end up with a few more seats than LibDems. Official opposition status awaits.
Might be tempting for a few Starmer-sceptic Labour MPs to jump ship to LibDems and push their numbers past the Tories. In those circs do the LibDems become official opposition with all the extra profile and perquisites?
Might the DUP take the Tory whip to get them over the line? APNI do the same for LibDems?
Will this be being war-gamed?
Yes, we've talked about this a bit. It will be down to the Speaker to adjudicate. Much potential for all sorts of things to affect it - by-elections, defections, coalitions, perhaps His Majesty's Very Loyal Opposition, if a bunch of Labour backbenchers decided there is more room on the other side of the chamber (though that would be high levels of skulduggery, if they took up the Labour whip again in time to be candidates at the election following).
The Lib Dems would, I'd think, be concentrating on winning the seats to make it a necessary question to answer, and the Tories seem to be preoccupied with internal post-election manoeuvring.
No, the Tories are going to be in the intensive care unit or a secure psych ward. Seriously. If these polls verify they will so shocked and traumatised it will take money months for them to return to “normality” - and indeed they might not do so
Some of these polls put them on about 30 seats and behind the Lib Dems, with Farage chortling at them in the Commons
Of course. Let's wait till Friday shall we.
"It will be down to the Speaker to adjudicate."
Only if the two parties - Lib and Tory - end up on same number of seats I think.
Nigel Evans likely has lost his seat in this scenario so all three positions below Hoyle will be vacant. I assume it would be 1 Labour, 1 Conservative, 1 Lib Dem for deputy speaker/1st deputy ways and means, 2nd deputy ways and means. Possibly it'd come down to Alliance vs UUP elected in Northern Ireland to decide who the LOTO is in this scenario, although Rishi would likely resign as an MP immediately meaning it would be Davey.
Even down at 36% that's still a 230 majority. LDs also the OO on that poll, even if CorRef merge...
Con 56, Lab 440, LD 82, Ref 22, Green 4, SNP 23, PC 4, Others 19
I'm still scratching my head at the ludicrous Green shares some pollsters persist in publishing. And this one is up two. Something is happening with the Green party. It's odd, they've had virtually no coverage yet there they are.
LLG is up 3 and RefCon down 2 in that poll. LLG 59, RefCon 35. So despite looking very different from other pollsters on individual parties it's bang on average on a left vs right basis.
I took an impromptu day off yesterday, and walked the north Kent coast - 30km from Broadstairs to Whitstable.
Passing through three constituencies: East Thanet (notional 2019 Con maj. 7,690), Herne Bay and Sandwich (notional 2019 Con maj. 20,218), and Canterbury (2019 Lab maj. 2,165). You'd expect all three to be a straight Tory/Labour fight, with the Greens nowhere.
But I saw as many Green posters as Labour - concentrated in the hipster part of Margate's old town and the terraced bit of Whitstable.
And there were no Tory or Refuk placards or posters to be seen anywhere, not even in places like Birchington which was covered in Tory placards in 2019.
There's definitely a bit of a Green surge happening, but I'm not sure that the party is going to be able to do much to take advantage.
Even down at 36% that's still a 230 majority. LDs also the OO on that poll, even if CorRef merge...
Con 56, Lab 440, LD 82, Ref 22, Green 4, SNP 23, PC 4, Others 19
I'm still scratching my head at the ludicrous Green shares some pollsters persist in publishing. And this one is up two. Something is happening with the Green party. It's odd, they've had virtually no coverage yet there they are.
LLG is up 3 and RefCon down 2 in that poll. LLG 59, RefCon 35. So despite looking very different from other pollsters on individual parties it's bang on average on a left vs right basis.
I took an impromptu day off yesterday, and walked the north Kent coast - 30km from Broadstairs to Whitstable.
Passing through three constituencies: East Thanet (notional 2019 Con maj. 7,690), Herne Bay and Sandwich (notional 2019 Con maj. 20,218), and Canterbury (2019 Lab maj. 2,165). You'd expect all three to be a straight Tory/Labour fight, with the Greens nowhere.
But I saw as many Green posters as Labour - concentrated in the hipster part of Margate's old town and the terraced bit of Whitstable.
And there were no Tory or Refuk placards or posters to be seen anywhere, not even in places like Birchington which was covered in Tory placards in 2019.
There's definitely a bit of a Green surge happening, but I'm not sure that the party is going to be able to do much to take advantage.
If they can hold Brighton and take Bristol Central and N Herefordshire then that would be a massive step forward for the party.
Let's say Tories end up with a few more seats than LibDems. Official opposition status awaits.
Might be tempting for a few Starmer-sceptic Labour MPs to jump ship to LibDems and push their numbers past the Tories. In those circs do the LibDems become official opposition with all the extra profile and perquisites?
Might the DUP take the Tory whip to get them over the line? APNI do the same for LibDems?
Will this be being war-gamed?
Yes, we've talked about this a bit. It will be down to the Speaker to adjudicate. Much potential for all sorts of things to affect it - by-elections, defections, coalitions, perhaps His Majesty's Very Loyal Opposition, if a bunch of Labour backbenchers decided there is more room on the other side of the chamber (though that would be high levels of skulduggery, if they took up the Labour whip again in time to be candidates at the election following).
The Lib Dems would, I'd think, be concentrating on winning the seats to make it a necessary question to answer, and the Tories seem to be preoccupied with internal post-election manoeuvring.
No, the Tories are going to be in the intensive care unit or a secure psych ward. Seriously. If these polls verify they will so shocked and traumatised it will take money months for them to return to “normality” - and indeed they might not do so
Some of these polls put them on about 30 seats and behind the Lib Dems, with Farage chortling at them in the Commons
Of course. Let's wait till Friday shall we.
"It will be down to the Speaker to adjudicate."
Only if the two parties - Lib and Tory - end up on same number of seats I think.
Nigel Evans likely has lost his seat in this scenario so all three positions below Hoyle will be vacant. I assume it would be 1 Labour, 1 Conservative, 1 Lib Dem for deputy speaker/1st deputy ways and means, 2nd deputy ways and means. Possibly it'd come down to Alliance vs UUP elected in Northern Ireland to decide who the LOTO is in this scenario, although Rishi would likely resign as an MP immediately meaning it would be Davey.
Would Rishi still be an MP on that scenario?
I think he would be with equal Tory and Lib Dem seats.
Brexit party voters voted for that party in the local elections and switched to Tory in the General election irrespective of who they said they would vote for before the GE. Why not do it again?
I’ve changed my mind about ile de sein. It is even better than I thought and if any PBers follow me here I seriously recommend staying one night, because it must be incredible in the dark when the trippers go home. Sadly I have to leave!
What I’ve since learned
It has a cholera cemetery - one cholera epidemic is the reason the women switched to wearing black hats (unique in Brittany where they famously wore white hats)
When the fishing was bad the men relied on the women to make money from seaweed (turning it into soda in furnaces) or by “selling lichen”
The beaches and seas are fervent with wildlife: seals, dolphins, many many birds
There is an Iron Age shell midden
The church is built on a 12th century chapel which was itself built on two parallel 6000 year old megalithic alignments - the menhir by the mayor who told me about the boche in the u boat slaughtering the fishermen is the last of the alignments
The island has no natural water. None. They used to rely on “skimming rainwater”. It is said that when a man from ile dr sein greets you his first words will be “give me water”
Plus it was home to those ancient virgin female druids and then evil witches and then infamous wreckers
It is probably the most interesting place I have been in France. It’s also rather lovely in a sad way. The closest comparison is st kilda - which only just pips it because kilda has that epic grandeur
It does sound a very nice bit of the planet. I've only ever spent a couple of days in Brittany, and always considered going back.
On the odd occasion, a twinge of envy for your lifestyle surfaces.
Today's photo is a screenshot from the Post Office Inquiry - I flicked over for 2 seconds and saw this..
The important thing here is that remember this is a banking system - if what is written in that email doesn't scare you enough to resign immediately nothing will...
The first para - I can't make sense of it. The writer says 'here are some examples of X' but then says 'we are not suggesting that X has happened'. Eh??
I think what he is trying to say is that
1) There are duplicates 2) These occurred when copying to the audit server 3) There are not duplicates in the original data. So it's quite alright that there duplicates in the audit data.
The smell of bullshit from this document is overwhelming.
I'm trying to understand how that could happen in a sane database and what it means.
The audit log must presumably say 'a record was created with these values'.
This log record is duplicated but there's only one corresponding transaction in the main data.
How in the name of the wee man was there not a unique transaction reference assigned as the very first step in the whole process?
On the betting scandal, I suspect we'll end up with a political ban on politicians betting on politics. From what I have read there are an awful lot of cheeky punts placed by politicians, so if this goes all puritanical then it could be all kinds of fun.
There's a world of difference between betting on yourself, your party, your candidates elsewhere to win, and betting on yourself to lose. Or betting using insider knowledge on when the election will be. Especially if your job is to get your party ready for that election and you don't bother.
The challenge is that less betting means less odds. And they are a useful tool for gauging how elections are progressing. The Press and Journal this morning in a piece about Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey notes that Ross was 1% - 100/1 - to retain his seat in 2019 and do so. Useful data surely!
Someone was asking earlier - I do not hold any bets on anyone.
That's why I called it Insidergate.
Does anyone really care if politicians bet absent insider knowledge ? I certainly don't.
Well Sir Philip is having to stress that he is trying to win, despite betting on himself to lose.
So doing a bizarre interview on Sky News, singing the praises of Nigel Farage, represents his best efforts to win, rather than trying to throw the game. I'm glad we have his assurances.
Looking up the cricket grounds (including outgrounds) strikes me as a cheerfully pointless endeavour. Fully on board with that. My guess is that the main grounds are largely Lab now and will become possibly solely Lab; but that the outgrounds favour the Tories.
I'll give you Lancs (Stretford and Urmston) for starters. Think the outgrounds are Aigburth (Liverpool Riverside, I think) and, I think Lytham (which would be Fylde, I guess). Where else? Durham (Chester-le-Street) would be Durham North. Notts would be Rushcliffe. Yorkshire I think is Leeds NW, with Scarborough as Scarborough and Whitby. Very much looking forward to this...
Hampshire's Rose Bowl is in Eastleigh rather than either of the Southampton seats - so presumably Lib Dem gain from Conservative?
The Oval (Surrey) is (and always has been) Labour (prev Vauxhall, now Vauxhall and Camberwell Green) - but Surrey's outground at Guildford will also (presumably) be a Lib Dem gain from Conservative...
Kent's is Beckenham which I imagine will be one of the few Tory survivors. Outer south east London's Toriness really has to be experienced to be believed
Apols for quoting at length, but I think is really good. From a guy called Nick Tyrone who does a weekly email I subscribe to, 'The Week in Brexitland'. He's on twitter as well. Reflects a lot of my thoughts as to how we got here:
The result of the EU referendum has long been misunderstood by both sides of the Remain-Leave debate. It was neither some sort of Russian PSYOP project gone wild, nor a rational choice for a better future made by the British electorate. It was a cry for help, a wilfully destructive act by the section of the British electorate who made the difference. They were handed a brick and told not to, under any circumstances, throw it through the store window - and they went ahead and hurled it through as an act of defiance. “Deal with that mess,” was the collective voice of Brexit. “Now maybe you’ll be forced to fix things.” The chaos that consumed parliament in the years following the vote was not against the “will of the people”, but a furtherance of what they wanted to happen when they voted for Brexit. They wanted to disrupt the “natural order” and make the political classes squirm. The electorate succeeded in this goal.
In a sense, the Tories getting annihilated by the electorate is the 2016 result coming full circle, back to the only place it was ever going to end up - the Conservative civil war that created Brexit eating the mothership. The same impulse that drove people to do something slightly crazy, slightly drastic, stepping into the unknown in 2016 has driven them to do the same again in 2024 in a very different direction. “You think we won’t destroy the Conservative party? Watch us.”
The warnings about “super majorities” sound remarkably like the “Brexit will cost every household £4,000” scare stories from eight years ago. People aren’t listening. They don’t care. They feel angry and betrayed and they finally have a chance to do something about it, namely destroying the governing party in the most brutal fashion imaginable. The electorate are being given numerous ways to do it, as well. If you feel angry from the right, you can vote Reform and destroy the Tories that way; if you want to make sure they get destroyed, you can vote Labour; if you feel angry from a different angle, there’s the Lib Dems to consider. So many ways of destroying the Conservative party out there to choose from this time round.
What is humorous to watch is Conservative politicians, about to have their careers ended in many circumstances, who cannot begin to fathom that the same destructive forces which gave us Brexit in 2016 have now turned around and are set to annihilate them as well. The winds of hell they unleashed have blown back and obliterated the Tories. You could almost feel sorry for them, if you really tried to.
Interesting and a lot of truth in it I think. What he misses is that, for many, the vote was less a cry for help, more an act of desperation. And none of the parties have learnt that. This is not just a problem for the Tories but in the longer term for Labour as well. Business as usual is no longer an option and if they try to make it so they will go the same way as the Tories in 5 or 10 years time.
Exactly right. Brexit was also a scream of anger about immigration. We all know that - I voted Leave for sovereignty and democracy reasons like you - but I wholly accept that many of my fellow Britons were demanding: LOWER IMMIGRATION
And what did the Tories do once they “got Brexit done”? They raised inmigration to the highest levels in our history. 2.4 millions in 3 years. Utterly insane and criminally irresponsible and for this and mainly this they deserve to die. You cannot betray voters like this, you absolutely cannot
Immigration was obviously a factor, but I think it was more general than that. If we imagine a present where there had been zero net migration since Britain left the EU, I don't think the mood in the country would be particularly different. A little less pressure on housing, more of a recruitment crisis in the NHS, overall you'd still have a great frustration with the status quo.
Could it have been (whisper it) that people just didn't want Britain to be part of the EU?
There are some of you, obviously. But could it be... that you were always in the minority ?
Looking up the cricket grounds (including outgrounds) strikes me as a cheerfully pointless endeavour. Fully on board with that. My guess is that the main grounds are largely Lab now and will become possibly solely Lab; but that the outgrounds favour the Tories.
I'll give you Lancs (Stretford and Urmston) for starters. Think the outgrounds are Aigburth (Liverpool Riverside, I think) and, I think Lytham (which would be Fylde, I guess). Where else? Durham (Chester-le-Street) would be Durham North. Notts would be Rushcliffe. Yorkshire I think is Leeds NW, with Scarborough as Scarborough and Whitby. Very much looking forward to this...
Hampshire's Rose Bowl is in Eastleigh rather than either of the Southampton seats - so presumably Lib Dem gain from Conservative?
The Oval (Surrey) is (and always has been) Labour (prev Vauxhall, now Vauxhall and Camberwell Green) - but Surrey's outground at Guildford will also (presumably) be a Lib Dem gain from Conservative...
Kent's is Beckenham which I imagine will be one of the few Tory survivors. Outer south east London's Toriness really has to be experienced to be believed
Apols for quoting at length, but I think is really good. From a guy called Nick Tyrone who does a weekly email I subscribe to, 'The Week in Brexitland'. He's on twitter as well. Reflects a lot of my thoughts as to how we got here:
The result of the EU referendum has long been misunderstood by both sides of the Remain-Leave debate. It was neither some sort of Russian PSYOP project gone wild, nor a rational choice for a better future made by the British electorate. It was a cry for help, a wilfully destructive act by the section of the British electorate who made the difference. They were handed a brick and told not to, under any circumstances, throw it through the store window - and they went ahead and hurled it through as an act of defiance. “Deal with that mess,” was the collective voice of Brexit. “Now maybe you’ll be forced to fix things.” The chaos that consumed parliament in the years following the vote was not against the “will of the people”, but a furtherance of what they wanted to happen when they voted for Brexit. They wanted to disrupt the “natural order” and make the political classes squirm. The electorate succeeded in this goal.
In a sense, the Tories getting annihilated by the electorate is the 2016 result coming full circle, back to the only place it was ever going to end up - the Conservative civil war that created Brexit eating the mothership. The same impulse that drove people to do something slightly crazy, slightly drastic, stepping into the unknown in 2016 has driven them to do the same again in 2024 in a very different direction. “You think we won’t destroy the Conservative party? Watch us.”
The warnings about “super majorities” sound remarkably like the “Brexit will cost every household £4,000” scare stories from eight years ago. People aren’t listening. They don’t care. They feel angry and betrayed and they finally have a chance to do something about it, namely destroying the governing party in the most brutal fashion imaginable. The electorate are being given numerous ways to do it, as well. If you feel angry from the right, you can vote Reform and destroy the Tories that way; if you want to make sure they get destroyed, you can vote Labour; if you feel angry from a different angle, there’s the Lib Dems to consider. So many ways of destroying the Conservative party out there to choose from this time round.
What is humorous to watch is Conservative politicians, about to have their careers ended in many circumstances, who cannot begin to fathom that the same destructive forces which gave us Brexit in 2016 have now turned around and are set to annihilate them as well. The winds of hell they unleashed have blown back and obliterated the Tories. You could almost feel sorry for them, if you really tried to.
Interesting and a lot of truth in it I think. What he misses is that, for many, the vote was less a cry for help, more an act of desperation. And none of the parties have learnt that. This is not just a problem for the Tories but in the longer term for Labour as well. Business as usual is no longer an option and if they try to make it so they will go the same way as the Tories in 5 or 10 years time.
Exactly right. Brexit was also a scream of anger about immigration. We all know that - I voted Leave for sovereignty and democracy reasons like you - but I wholly accept that many of my fellow Britons were demanding: LOWER IMMIGRATION
And what did the Tories do once they “got Brexit done”? They raised inmigration to the highest levels in our history. 2.4 millions in 3 years. Utterly insane and criminally irresponsible and for this and mainly this they deserve to die. You cannot betray voters like this, you absolutely cannot
Immigration was obviously a factor, but I think it was more general than that. If we imagine a present where there had been zero net migration since Britain left the EU, I don't think the mood in the country would be particularly different. A little less pressure on housing, more of a recruitment crisis in the NHS, overall you'd still have a great frustration with the status quo.
Could it have been (whisper it) that people just didn't want Britain to be part of the EU?
There are some of you, obviously. But could it be... that you were always in the minority ?
I wouldn't be overly surprised to find the Greens a (temporary) refuge for quite a number of Tories, who want to protest but could never see themselves voting LibDem, Labour or (God forbid) Reform.
A lot is going to depend on whether the Tory/Reform split is even or not in each constituency or wholesale tactical voting takes place
I'm going to die laughing if this is where we end up on 5th July.
Or the majority of Reform voters will switch to Tory. Highly likely.
Why would they though? They know the election is lost, switching their vote is not going to change that. They presumably like what Reform are selling or they wouldn't say Ref in a poll survey.
No, the only late switchers the Tories are likely to get are those who have drifted to LD, Labour or Green because they are totally pissed off with the government. Some of those will drift back to try to keep the Tories ahead of Reform.
Today's photo is a screenshot from the Post Office Inquiry - I flicked over for 2 seconds and saw this..
The important thing here is that remember this is a banking system - if what is written in that email doesn't scare you enough to resign immediately nothing will...
The first para - I can't make sense of it. The writer says 'here are some examples of X' but then says 'we are not suggesting that X has happened'. Eh??
I think what he is trying to say is that
1) There are duplicates 2) These occurred when copying to the audit server 3) There are not duplicates in the original data. So it's quite alright that there duplicates in the audit data.
The smell of bullshit from this document is overwhelming.
I'm trying to understand how that could happen in a sane database and what it means.
The audit log must presumably say 'a record was created with these values'.
This log record is duplicated but there's only one corresponding transaction in the main data.
How in the name of the wee man was there not a unique transaction reference assigned as the very first step in the whole process?
It can't - that's the whole problem, even in 2010 the Horizon system wasn't fit for purpose...
Comments
Maybe I've underestimated them in assuming their vote would be squeezed, as it has always been squeezed before.
Does anyone really care if politicians bet absent insider knowledge ?
I certainly don't.
Only if the two parties - Lib and Tory - end up on same number of seats I think.
It would be extremely wasteful to spend a large amount of money trying to salvage what is effectively a very large lump of fairly obsolete space junk.
So I'm going to be a bit experimental and (if I can) bet on the little parties. So that's
Plaid Cymru: Ynys Môn and Caerfyrddin
Greens: Brighton Pavilion, Bristol Central, Waveney Valley and North Herefordshire.
Reform: Clacton
I don't know if I can pull this off as I don't bet online and the local bookies wet themselves when I bet on politics, so it might not be doable. So I'll let you know what happens. Who would you suggest for the
Golden ShowerLDs?(Incidentally, if anybody knows better Green/Plaid/Reform targets, please say)
The US's Destiny module was launched 23 years ago, with (from memory) a planned life of 25 years. These things can be expected; but as the brilliant Mir space station shows, the longer something lasts past its planned life, the more it costs to maintain, and the riskier that becomes. They're talking about a possible extension of the ISS's life to 2030, and that's stretching things.
The US sections rely on the Russian sections to boost them in orbit; there were plans for a module that would make them independent of the Russian modules, but that was cancelled. The Russians were talking of taking their modules off the ISS and making them an independent station, but that has its own difficulties.
But I expect by 2030 we'll have another station in LEO. I really would like to avoid a gap in man in space - there's been someone or other up there all the time for twenty years now.
Which makes the high national Green %age look doubly implausible.
It is designed for LEO only - so putting it above the Van Allen belts would be a bad idea.
It would be no use as a refuge - unless actively maintained, by a crew, it would become unusable in days.
In addition, changing orbital planes, once in orbit is extremely difficult and requires a lot of fuel. No spacecraft built, to date, can simply change to a radically different orbit if it feels like it. So getting to it as a refuge would not be possible.
Ukraine are likely doing it for pragmatic reasons.
We should so something similar.
Ukraine conflict: Ukraine establishes world's first unmanned force
2024-06-14
https://www.janes.com/osint-insights/defence-news/air/ukraine-conflict-ukraine-establishes-worlds-first-unmanned-force
LAB: 440
CON: 56
REF: 22
LD: 82
GRN: 4
A travesty of democracy if so, as (setting aside Nats and NI) the 59% left-leaning LLG vote would get 526 seats, where the 35% REF/CON right-leaning vote would get just 78. I say this as a person broadly Of The Left (as I am moreso a person Of Democracy).
In five years time we will have higher taxes, immigration will still be high, and the economy will still be on life support - or even worse, due to a combination of higher taxes and structural decline.
Pretty much every election since the GFC has been "this is broke, fix this" and successive governments fail to fix anything.
Lab 440.
Con 56.
Libdem 82.
Reform 22.
Green 4.
A lot is going to depend on whether the Tory/Reform split is even or not in each constituency or wholesale tactical voting takes place
https://x.com/JAHeale/status/1806238748536922386
It shows Labour 429 seats, Conservative 125, Liberal Democrat 50, SNP 17, Plaid Cymru 4, Reform UK 3, and Green 3, giving an overall Labour majority of 210.
That forecast uses the current UK-Elect default forecasting settings, using the actual candidate list and taking some account of constituency opinion polls, by-elections since 2019, Brexit referendum leave/remain percentages, incumbency, and tactical voting among other factors. There are still a lot of seats that are marginal, and considerable uncertainty about the best forecasting algorithms to use. This forecast combines various methods, including both proportional and UNS elements. Although the algorithm is targeted at forecasting the overall situation more than individual seats the forecast top three in every constituency can be found here: https://www.ukelect.co.uk/20240627ForecastUK/UKTop3Forecast.csv
I would imagine you could offer some insight into how to actually hold onto votes.
But could it be... that you were always in the minority ?
Labour have the job of moral and hopeful leadership, currently lacking; The Tories have the job of being a possible alternative.
If both fail in this the next election will be even more interesting than this one.
“Keir Starmer has told England fans there is “too much criticism” of Gareth Southgate’s team after their group stage performances in Euro 2024 – and urged supporters to “get behind them”.
Speaking on the campaign trail in Staffordshire, he added: “Get them over the line because this is a really important competition.
“England always do a bit of this at the beginning of competitions ... but it’s a brilliant squad of players, all had great seasons for their respective clubs. Just get behind the team. I want less of the criticism, more of the support”
Even if (prob) a value loser.
1) There are duplicates
2) These occurred when copying to the audit server
3) There are not duplicates in the original data. So it's quite alright that there duplicates in the audit data.
The smell of bullshit from this document is overwhelming.
[Yeah, I know Δv is very large]
The Reform UK leader is speaking to 1,000 people at the Rainton Arena. [In Sunderland]
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/27/general-election-live-sunak-starmer-farage/
What has NOT happened is any drift up for the Tories - its gone down too!
Either the polls are massively wrong, and Reform is hugely overstated, or we about to see something extraordinary. If this was the result, and Labour achieved a huge majority on that basis, I can see Labour doing absolutely nothing about the voting system, with the exception of lowering the age to 16 year olds up. Why change if the system works for you? But generally getting a third of the voters should not imply a massive vote of confidence!
The big picture electoral picture is such a forgone conclusion and Starmer has hardly endeared himself to the furthest left aka Green recently. I don't think it'll be 8% but surely it's primed for a record.
I'm not sure which side of that I would want to be tbh.
The right wing split vote is more than about maths. It's about the failure of the centre right to operate well within our system. This involves a massive lack of leadership. Other systems are available. This one has great merits.
What I’ve since learned
It has a cholera cemetery - one cholera epidemic is the reason the women switched to wearing black hats (unique in Brittany where they famously wore white hats)
When the fishing was bad the men relied on the women to make money from seaweed (turning it into soda in furnaces) or by “selling lichen”
The beaches and seas are fervent with wildlife: seals, dolphins, many many birds
There is an Iron Age shell midden
The church is built on a 12th century chapel which was itself built on two parallel 6000 year old megalithic alignments - the menhir by the mayor who told me about the boche in the u boat slaughtering the fishermen is the last of the alignments
The island has no natural water. None. They used
to rely on “skimming rainwater”. It is said that when a man from ile dr sein greets you his first words will be “give me water”
Plus it was home to those ancient virgin female druids and then evil witches and then infamous wreckers
It is probably the most interesting place I have been in France. It’s also rather lovely in a sad way. The closest comparison is st kilda - which only just pips it because kilda has that epic grandeur
Carshalton & Wallington
North East Fife
Wimbledon
Sheffield HallamSouth Cambridgeshire
Cheltenham
Mid Dunbartonshire
Cheadle
Eastbourne
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c133p016pg4o
Also Winchester. I'm surprised it isn't LibDem already, being posh as f***
But no, they will still fall for politicians selling snake oil scams like Brexit. Anything other than have to accept that they need to work longer, pay more and get less.
https://x.com/Conservatives/status/1806291306064339155
Possibly the biggest fail of their campaign, these social media ads.
Passing through three constituencies: East Thanet (notional 2019 Con maj. 7,690), Herne Bay and Sandwich (notional 2019 Con maj. 20,218), and Canterbury (2019 Lab maj. 2,165). You'd expect all three to be a straight Tory/Labour fight, with the Greens nowhere.
But I saw as many Green posters as Labour - concentrated in the hipster part of Margate's old town and the terraced bit of Whitstable.
And there were no Tory or Refuk placards or posters to be seen anywhere, not even in places like Birchington which was covered in Tory placards in 2019.
There's definitely a bit of a Green surge happening, but I'm not sure that the party is going to be able to do much to take advantage.
Lab: 36% (-1 from 19-20 Jun)
Con: 18% (-1)
Reform UK: 17% (-1)
Lib Dem: 15% (+2)
Green: 8% (+2)
SNP: 3% (=)
What the beret and Poirot Moustache are about defeats me though.
(In both senses!)
I've only ever spent a couple of days in Brittany, and always considered going back.
On the odd occasion, a twinge of envy for your lifestyle surfaces.
No doubt the social media whiz who presumably is someone's nephew or niece did PPE at Oxford. Showing once again how little they learn there.
The audit log must presumably say 'a record was created with these values'.
This log record is duplicated but there's only one corresponding transaction in the main data.
How in the name of the wee man was there not a unique transaction reference assigned as the very first step in the whole process?
So doing a bizarre interview on Sky News, singing the praises of Nigel Farage, represents his best efforts to win, rather than trying to throw the game. I'm glad we have his assurances.
Otherwise, WTAF ?
(Working on perceptions and local politics, ignoring the reality that anybody on an estated built since perhaps 1960 is in one already.)
Proud dad
I may end up in the poor house.
I am cursing the moment I ever became addicted to the spreads.
Slightly more original and (ahem) three-dimensional than the usual graffiti, and the appendage even swayed in the breeze. Ten out of ten for effort.
No, the only late switchers the Tories are likely to get are those who have drifted to LD, Labour or Green because they are totally pissed off with the government. Some of those will drift back to try to keep the Tories ahead of Reform.
But I think Rayner is wrong on this - ending Zero Hour contracts is a Union Baron more-power-for-us demand, not what people on them generally want.