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What’s this market going to look like tomorrow morning? – politicalbetting.com

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  • Is it entirely inconceivable that Labour will almost sweep the board in the UK? If so the DUP would be His Majesties Loyalist Opposition.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,747
    Sandpit said:

    Omnium said:

    Sandpit said:

    Omnium said:

    Nasa are hiring SpaceX to push the ISS out of orbit it seems.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cnl02jl5pzno

    Surely they could park the ISS somewhere like a Lagrange point or something as all that stuff could be used more usefully than polluting the Pacific? Maybe even as an emergency refuge.

    Well they’re not going to get Boeing to do it, after all the crap that company is currently giving NASA.

    The problem is that it will rapidly degrade and start to disintegrate once systems start being switched off, so it needs to be either pushed deep into space or brought back to Earth.
    Just seems rather unambitious and wasteful to me.
    They have little choice. It has been up there since 2000, and will soon reach the end of its useful life. They already have problems with leaking air and various systems malfunctions are becoming more common. Better to plan properly to deorbit the station in a controlled manner, than have to do an emergency evacuation and an uncontrolled re-entry which could cause problems on Earth!
    I guess if there is anything that can sensibly be done to re-use it SpaceX will be best placed to make such suggestions.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,061

    TimS said:

    Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (24-25 June)

    Lab: 36% (-1 from 19-20 Jun)
    Con: 18% (-1)
    Reform UK: 17% (-1)
    Lib Dem: 15% (+2)
    Green: 8% (+2)
    SNP: 3% (=)


    https://x.com/yougov/status/1806283514288988386?s=61&t=c6bcp0cjChLfQN5Tc8A_6g

    Even down at 36% that's still a 230 majority. LDs also the OO on that poll, even if CorRef merge...

    Con 56, Lab 440, LD 82, Ref 22, Green 4, SNP 23, PC 4, Others 19
    I'm still scratching my head at the ludicrous Green shares some pollsters persist in publishing. And this one is up two. Something is happening with the Green party. It's odd, they've had virtually no coverage yet there they are.

    LLG is up 3 and RefCon down 2 in that poll. LLG 59, RefCon 35. So despite looking very different from other pollsters on individual parties it's bang on average on a left vs right basis.
    There is a serious chance we will surprise everyone.
    Any suggestions? Serious question: which seats will you think go LD, Oh Owner Of Teslas? :)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,404
    eek said:

    NEW: @JLPartnersPolls @Channel4News focus group of Conservative 2019 voters in Leeds South West and Morley

    💥 Not one Tory 2019 voter we spoke to is even considering voting Conservative on July 4th

    💥 Tories described as "self-centred", "out of touch", "hopeless"

    💥 People described the moments they turned away from the Conservatives: partygate, Covid contracts, the economy, and "the absolute disgrace" Liz Truss

    💥 Sunak's early D-Day exit was singled out as "one of the biggest mistakes a politician has made": seen as "humiliating", "embarrassing", "disgusting"; one voter said they were "fuming"

    💥 Rishi Sunak described as "lost", "out of touch", "false, trying to side with the general public but you just see straight through it", "smug", and a "pathetic toff"

    💥 Reform UK attractive to three of our voters. Nigel Farage described as "misunderstood", "strong", "having good ideas", "great in the jungle"

    💥 Keir Starmer described as "uninspiring", "rambles", "irritating", "corporate", "change", and "wishy washy". But the person who said wishy washy said that is a strength, as we "don't need a Donald Trump running our country"

    💥 Labour was the most popular choice of the vast majority, with almost all planning on voting for them in one week's time

    💥 But everyone said it was a vote against the Tories rather than a vote for Labour. In the words of one voter, "they've not won me, the Tories have just lost me". All said they would be open to going back to the Tories in the future, or voting for any party. This period of mass voter volatility is not going anywhere.

    https://x.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1806239023796498488

    Video https://t.co/qPsJDbyIqp

    My prediction of a one-term Labour government that then also gets flushed down the toilet looking possible then.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,546
    Omnium said:

    Sandpit said:

    Omnium said:

    Nasa are hiring SpaceX to push the ISS out of orbit it seems.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cnl02jl5pzno

    Surely they could park the ISS somewhere like a Lagrange point or something as all that stuff could be used more usefully than polluting the Pacific? Maybe even as an emergency refuge.

    Well they’re not going to get Boeing to do it, after all the crap that company is currently giving NASA.

    The problem is that it will rapidly degrade and start to disintegrate once systems start being switched off, so it needs to be either pushed deep into space or brought back to Earth.
    Just seems rather unambitious and wasteful to me.
    It is in a way, but it is nearing end of life. In fact, I think some modules are past end of life, and are in extension mode. (I'm talking about the US/Japan/EU/Canada modules, not the Russian ones. Goodness knows what state they're in...).

    The US's Destiny module was launched 23 years ago, with (from memory) a planned life of 25 years. These things can be expected; but as the brilliant Mir space station shows, the longer something lasts past its planned life, the more it costs to maintain, and the riskier that becomes. They're talking about a possible extension of the ISS's life to 2030, and that's stretching things.

    The US sections rely on the Russian sections to boost them in orbit; there were plans for a module that would make them independent of the Russian modules, but that was cancelled. The Russians were talking of taking their modules off the ISS and making them an independent station, but that has its own difficulties.

    But I expect by 2030 we'll have another station in LEO. I really would like to avoid a gap in man in space - there's been someone or other up there all the time for twenty years now.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    TimS said:

    Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (24-25 June)

    Lab: 36% (-1 from 19-20 Jun)
    Con: 18% (-1)
    Reform UK: 17% (-1)
    Lib Dem: 15% (+2)
    Green: 8% (+2)
    SNP: 3% (=)


    https://x.com/yougov/status/1806283514288988386?s=61&t=c6bcp0cjChLfQN5Tc8A_6g

    Even down at 36% that's still a 230 majority. LDs also the OO on that poll, even if CorRef merge...

    Con 56, Lab 440, LD 82, Ref 22, Green 4, SNP 23, PC 4, Others 19
    I'm still scratching my head at the ludicrous Green shares some pollsters persist in publishing. And this one is up two. Something is happening with the Green party. It's odd, they've had virtually no coverage yet there they are.

    LLG is up 3 and RefCon down 2 in that poll. LLG 59, RefCon 35. So despite looking very different from other pollsters on individual parties it's bang on average on a left vs right basis.
    The Greens' concentration on their handful of target seats is remarkable. Every Green activist round here seems to be spending their waking hours in Bristol Central. They haven't bothered at all in either Oxford seat, where they had a chance of scoring a decent second.

    Which makes the high national Green %age look doubly implausible.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,404

    Leon said:

    Apols for quoting at length, but I think is really good. From a guy called Nick Tyrone who does a weekly email I subscribe to, 'The Week in Brexitland'. He's on twitter as well. Reflects a lot of my thoughts as to how we got here:

    The result of the EU referendum has long been misunderstood by both sides of the Remain-Leave debate. It was neither some sort of Russian PSYOP project gone wild, nor a rational choice for a better future made by the British electorate. It was a cry for help, a wilfully destructive act by the section of the British electorate who made the difference. They were handed a brick and told not to, under any circumstances, throw it through the store window - and they went ahead and hurled it through as an act of defiance. “Deal with that mess,” was the collective voice of Brexit. “Now maybe you’ll be forced to fix things.” The chaos that consumed parliament in the years following the vote was not against the “will of the people”, but a furtherance of what they wanted to happen when they voted for Brexit. They wanted to disrupt the “natural order” and make the political classes squirm. The electorate succeeded in this goal.

    In a sense, the Tories getting annihilated by the electorate is the 2016 result coming full circle, back to the only place it was ever going to end up - the Conservative civil war that created Brexit eating the mothership. The same impulse that drove people to do something slightly crazy, slightly drastic, stepping into the unknown in 2016 has driven them to do the same again in 2024 in a very different direction. “You think we won’t destroy the Conservative party? Watch us.”

    The warnings about “super majorities” sound remarkably like the “Brexit will cost every household £4,000” scare stories from eight years ago. People aren’t listening. They don’t care. They feel angry and betrayed and they finally have a chance to do something about it, namely destroying the governing party in the most brutal fashion imaginable. The electorate are being given numerous ways to do it, as well. If you feel angry from the right, you can vote Reform and destroy the Tories that way; if you want to make sure they get destroyed, you can vote Labour; if you feel angry from a different angle, there’s the Lib Dems to consider. So many ways of destroying the Conservative party out there to choose from this time round.

    What is humorous to watch is Conservative politicians, about to have their careers ended in many circumstances, who cannot begin to fathom that the same destructive forces which gave us Brexit in 2016 have now turned around and are set to annihilate them as well. The winds of hell they unleashed have blown back and obliterated the Tories. You could almost feel sorry for them, if you really tried to.


    Interesting and a lot of truth in it I think. What he misses is that, for many, the vote was less a cry for help, more an act of desperation. And none of the parties have learnt that. This is not just a problem for the Tories but in the longer term for Labour as well. Business as usual is no longer an option and if they try to make it so they will go the same way as the Tories in 5 or 10 years time.
    Exactly right. Brexit was also a scream of anger about immigration. We all know that - I voted Leave for sovereignty and democracy reasons like you - but I wholly accept that many of my fellow Britons were demanding: LOWER IMMIGRATION

    And what did the Tories do once they “got Brexit done”? They raised inmigration to the highest levels in our history. 2.4 millions in 3 years. Utterly insane and criminally irresponsible and for this and mainly this they deserve to die. You cannot betray voters like this, you absolutely cannot
    Immigration was obviously a factor, but I think it was more general than that. If we imagine a present where there had been zero net migration since Britain left the EU, I don't think the mood in the country would be particularly different. A little less pressure on housing, more of a recruitment crisis in the NHS, overall you'd still have a great frustration with the status quo.
    Could it have been (whisper it) that people just didn't want Britain to be part of the EU?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,169
    edited June 27

    Leon said:

    Has this possibiity been discussed?

    Let's say Tories end up with a few more seats than LibDems. Official opposition status awaits.

    Might be tempting for a few Starmer-sceptic Labour MPs to jump ship to LibDems and push their numbers past the Tories. In those circs do the LibDems become official opposition with all the extra profile and perquisites?

    Might the DUP take the Tory whip to get them over the line? APNI do the same for LibDems?

    Will this be being war-gamed?

    Yes, we've talked about this a bit. It will be down to the Speaker to adjudicate. Much potential for all sorts of things to affect it - by-elections, defections, coalitions, perhaps His Majesty's Very Loyal Opposition, if a bunch of Labour backbenchers decided there is more room on the other side of the chamber (though that would be high levels of skulduggery, if they took up the Labour whip again in time to be candidates at the election following).

    The Lib Dems would, I'd think, be concentrating on winning the seats to make it a necessary question to answer, and the Tories seem to be preoccupied with internal post-election manoeuvring.
    No, the Tories are going to be in the intensive care unit or a secure psych ward. Seriously. If these polls verify they will so shocked and traumatised it will take money months for them to return to “normality” - and indeed they might not do so

    Some of these polls put them on about 30 seats and behind the Lib Dems, with Farage chortling at them in the Commons
    Of course. Let's wait till Friday shall we.
    "It will be down to the Speaker to adjudicate."

    Only if the two parties - Lib and Tory - end up on same number of seats I think.
    Nigel Evans likely has lost his seat in this scenario so all three positions below Hoyle will be vacant. I assume it would be 1 Labour, 1 Conservative, 1 Lib Dem for deputy speaker/1st deputy ways and means, 2nd deputy ways and means. Possibly it'd come down to Alliance vs UUP elected in Northern Ireland to decide who the LOTO is in this scenario, although Rishi would likely resign as an MP immediately meaning it would be Davey.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,043
    This isn't a daft idea, as unmanned systems need their own lobby within the military, or they'll lost out on funding to the lobby of generals, air chiefs, and admirals desperate to protect their legacy systems, for what are effectively sentimental reasons.

    Ukraine are likely doing it for pragmatic reasons.
    We should so something similar.

    Ukraine conflict: Ukraine establishes world's first unmanned force
    2024-06-14
    https://www.janes.com/osint-insights/defence-news/air/ukraine-conflict-ukraine-establishes-worlds-first-unmanned-force
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,061

    Leon said:

    Apols for quoting at length, but I think is really good. From a guy called Nick Tyrone who does a weekly email I subscribe to, 'The Week in Brexitland'. He's on twitter as well. Reflects a lot of my thoughts as to how we got here:

    The result of the EU referendum has long been misunderstood by both sides of the Remain-Leave debate. It was neither some sort of Russian PSYOP project gone wild, nor a rational choice for a better future made by the British electorate. It was a cry for help, a wilfully destructive act by the section of the British electorate who made the difference. They were handed a brick and told not to, under any circumstances, throw it through the store window - and they went ahead and hurled it through as an act of defiance. “Deal with that mess,” was the collective voice of Brexit. “Now maybe you’ll be forced to fix things.” The chaos that consumed parliament in the years following the vote was not against the “will of the people”, but a furtherance of what they wanted to happen when they voted for Brexit. They wanted to disrupt the “natural order” and make the political classes squirm. The electorate succeeded in this goal.

    In a sense, the Tories getting annihilated by the electorate is the 2016 result coming full circle, back to the only place it was ever going to end up - the Conservative civil war that created Brexit eating the mothership. The same impulse that drove people to do something slightly crazy, slightly drastic, stepping into the unknown in 2016 has driven them to do the same again in 2024 in a very different direction. “You think we won’t destroy the Conservative party? Watch us.”

    The warnings about “super majorities” sound remarkably like the “Brexit will cost every household £4,000” scare stories from eight years ago. People aren’t listening. They don’t care. They feel angry and betrayed and they finally have a chance to do something about it, namely destroying the governing party in the most brutal fashion imaginable. The electorate are being given numerous ways to do it, as well. If you feel angry from the right, you can vote Reform and destroy the Tories that way; if you want to make sure they get destroyed, you can vote Labour; if you feel angry from a different angle, there’s the Lib Dems to consider. So many ways of destroying the Conservative party out there to choose from this time round.

    What is humorous to watch is Conservative politicians, about to have their careers ended in many circumstances, who cannot begin to fathom that the same destructive forces which gave us Brexit in 2016 have now turned around and are set to annihilate them as well. The winds of hell they unleashed have blown back and obliterated the Tories. You could almost feel sorry for them, if you really tried to.


    Interesting and a lot of truth in it I think. What he misses is that, for many, the vote was less a cry for help, more an act of desperation. And none of the parties have learnt that. This is not just a problem for the Tories but in the longer term for Labour as well. Business as usual is no longer an option and if they try to make it so they will go the same way as the Tories in 5 or 10 years time.
    Exactly right. Brexit was also a scream of anger about immigration. We all know that - I voted Leave for sovereignty and democracy reasons like you - but I wholly accept that many of my fellow Britons were demanding: LOWER IMMIGRATION

    And what did the Tories do once they “got Brexit done”? They raised inmigration to the highest levels in our history. 2.4 millions in 3 years. Utterly insane and criminally irresponsible and for this and mainly this they deserve to die. You cannot betray voters like this, you absolutely cannot
    Immigration was obviously a factor, but I think it was more general than that. If we imagine a present where there had been zero net migration since Britain left the EU, I don't think the mood in the country would be particularly different. A little less pressure on housing, more of a recruitment crisis in the NHS, overall you'd still have a great frustration with the status quo.
    Could it have been (whisper it) that people just didn't want Britain to be part of the EU?
    Oh you heretic you... :)
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Pulpstar said:

    New Yougov just dropped. No love for Labour it seems but things are starting to look REALLY dire for the Tories


    LAB: 36% (-1)
    CON: 18% (-1)
    REF: 17% (-1)
    LDEM: 15% (+2)
    GRN: 8% (+2)

    Astonishing numbers. ElCalced, that gives:

    LAB: 440
    CON: 56
    REF: 22
    LD: 82
    GRN: 4

    A travesty of democracy if so, as (setting aside Nats and NI) the 59% left-leaning LLG vote would get 526 seats, where the 35% REF/CON right-leaning vote would get just 78. I say this as a person broadly Of The Left (as I am moreso a person Of Democracy).
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,043

    Omnium said:

    Nasa are hiring SpaceX to push the ISS out of orbit it seems.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cnl02jl5pzno

    Surely they could park the ISS somewhere like a Lagrange point or something as all that stuff could be used more usefully than polluting the Pacific? Maybe even as an emergency refuge.

    It's falling apart. Each orbit creates a thermal cycle - day/night. So every 90 minutes, blowtorched, then frozen. The result is fatigue through the whole structure. It's been up for longer than it was designed for.

    It is designed for LEO only - so putting it above the Van Allen belts would be a bad idea.

    It would be no use as a refuge - unless actively maintained, by a crew, it would become unusable in days.

    In addition, changing orbital planes, once in orbit is extremely difficult and requires a lot of fuel. No spacecraft built, to date, can simply change to a radically different orbit if it feels like it. So getting to it as a refuge would not be possible.
    A reminder that "For All Mankind" was fiction, not a how to manual.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,937

    eek said:

    NEW: @JLPartnersPolls @Channel4News focus group of Conservative 2019 voters in Leeds South West and Morley

    💥 Not one Tory 2019 voter we spoke to is even considering voting Conservative on July 4th

    💥 Tories described as "self-centred", "out of touch", "hopeless"

    💥 People described the moments they turned away from the Conservatives: partygate, Covid contracts, the economy, and "the absolute disgrace" Liz Truss

    💥 Sunak's early D-Day exit was singled out as "one of the biggest mistakes a politician has made": seen as "humiliating", "embarrassing", "disgusting"; one voter said they were "fuming"

    💥 Rishi Sunak described as "lost", "out of touch", "false, trying to side with the general public but you just see straight through it", "smug", and a "pathetic toff"

    💥 Reform UK attractive to three of our voters. Nigel Farage described as "misunderstood", "strong", "having good ideas", "great in the jungle"

    💥 Keir Starmer described as "uninspiring", "rambles", "irritating", "corporate", "change", and "wishy washy". But the person who said wishy washy said that is a strength, as we "don't need a Donald Trump running our country"

    💥 Labour was the most popular choice of the vast majority, with almost all planning on voting for them in one week's time

    💥 But everyone said it was a vote against the Tories rather than a vote for Labour. In the words of one voter, "they've not won me, the Tories have just lost me". All said they would be open to going back to the Tories in the future, or voting for any party. This period of mass voter volatility is not going anywhere.

    https://x.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1806239023796498488

    Video https://t.co/qPsJDbyIqp

    My prediction of a one-term Labour government that then also gets flushed down the toilet looking possible then.
    Yep.

    In five years time we will have higher taxes, immigration will still be high, and the economy will still be on life support - or even worse, due to a combination of higher taxes and structural decline.

    Pretty much every election since the GFC has been "this is broke, fix this" and successive governments fail to fix anything.
  • Pulpstar said:

    New Yougov just dropped. No love for Labour it seems but things are starting to look REALLY dire for the Tories


    LAB: 36% (-1)
    CON: 18% (-1)
    REF: 17% (-1)
    LDEM: 15% (+2)
    GRN: 8% (+2)

    Baxtered.

    Lab 440.
    Con 56.
    Libdem 82.
    Reform 22.
    Green 4.

    A lot is going to depend on whether the Tory/Reform split is even or not in each constituency or wholesale tactical voting takes place
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,043
    I'm sure this a rumour TSE is spreading.
    https://x.com/JAHeale/status/1806238748536922386
  • ukelectukelect Posts: 140
    The latest UK-Elect General Election forecast has now been released at https://www.ukelect.co.uk/HTML/forecasts/20240627ForecastUK.html

    It shows Labour 429 seats, Conservative 125, Liberal Democrat 50, SNP 17, Plaid Cymru 4, Reform UK 3, and Green 3, giving an overall Labour majority of 210.

    That forecast uses the current UK-Elect default forecasting settings, using the actual candidate list and taking some account of constituency opinion polls, by-elections since 2019, Brexit referendum leave/remain percentages, incumbency, and tactical voting among other factors. There are still a lot of seats that are marginal, and considerable uncertainty about the best forecasting algorithms to use. This forecast combines various methods, including both proportional and UNS elements. Although the algorithm is targeted at forecasting the overall situation more than individual seats the forecast top three in every constituency can be found here: https://www.ukelect.co.uk/20240627ForecastUK/UKTop3Forecast.csv
  • TimS said:

    Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (24-25 June)

    Lab: 36% (-1 from 19-20 Jun)
    Con: 18% (-1)
    Reform UK: 17% (-1)
    Lib Dem: 15% (+2)
    Green: 8% (+2)
    SNP: 3% (=)


    https://x.com/yougov/status/1806283514288988386?s=61&t=c6bcp0cjChLfQN5Tc8A_6g

    Even down at 36% that's still a 230 majority. LDs also the OO on that poll, even if CorRef merge...

    Con 56, Lab 440, LD 82, Ref 22, Green 4, SNP 23, PC 4, Others 19
    I'm still scratching my head at the ludicrous Green shares some pollsters persist in publishing. And this one is up two. Something is happening with the Green party. It's odd, they've had virtually no coverage yet there they are.

    LLG is up 3 and RefCon down 2 in that poll. LLG 59, RefCon 35. So despite looking very different from other pollsters on individual parties it's bang on average on a left vs right basis.
    There is a serious chance we will surprise everyone.
    Greens. Outside of Bristol and Brighton what seat will they get? 0.
    I'm not entirely convinced they will win Brighton this time after the goings on with the council in recent years.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,362

    eek said:

    NEW: @JLPartnersPolls @Channel4News focus group of Conservative 2019 voters in Leeds South West and Morley

    💥 Not one Tory 2019 voter we spoke to is even considering voting Conservative on July 4th

    💥 Tories described as "self-centred", "out of touch", "hopeless"

    💥 People described the moments they turned away from the Conservatives: partygate, Covid contracts, the economy, and "the absolute disgrace" Liz Truss

    💥 Sunak's early D-Day exit was singled out as "one of the biggest mistakes a politician has made": seen as "humiliating", "embarrassing", "disgusting"; one voter said they were "fuming"

    💥 Rishi Sunak described as "lost", "out of touch", "false, trying to side with the general public but you just see straight through it", "smug", and a "pathetic toff"

    💥 Reform UK attractive to three of our voters. Nigel Farage described as "misunderstood", "strong", "having good ideas", "great in the jungle"

    💥 Keir Starmer described as "uninspiring", "rambles", "irritating", "corporate", "change", and "wishy washy". But the person who said wishy washy said that is a strength, as we "don't need a Donald Trump running our country"

    💥 Labour was the most popular choice of the vast majority, with almost all planning on voting for them in one week's time

    💥 But everyone said it was a vote against the Tories rather than a vote for Labour. In the words of one voter, "they've not won me, the Tories have just lost me". All said they would be open to going back to the Tories in the future, or voting for any party. This period of mass voter volatility is not going anywhere.

    https://x.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1806239023796498488

    Video https://t.co/qPsJDbyIqp

    My prediction of a one-term Labour government that then also gets flushed down the toilet looking possible then.
    Labour is going to have to deliver things to keep people happy - how they do that I haven't got a clue..
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,362

    nova said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    Cicero said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Apologies that this is probably old but it only recently went up on their website so far as I can see:

    BMG Research
    @BMGResearch
    📊 Latest VI poll for
    @theipaper
    📊

    ➡️ Labour leads by 22 points. Reform drops by 3 points. Lib Dem’s up to 12%.

    📉 Gap between Labour and Conservatives looks steady with one week to go.

    LAB: 42% (=)
    CON: 20% (+1)
    RFM: 16% (-3)
    LDM: 12% (+3)
    GRN: 6% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (=)
    OTH: 2% (+1)

    24th-26th June. Changes with 18-19th June.

    So for the three most recent polls there is quite a lot of consistency. Herding in the final week?

    Lab 39,40, 42 so let’s call it LAB 40%
    Con 20,20, 23 so let’s call it CON 22% to be generous
    RFM 14, 15, 16 so RFM 15%
    LibDem 11,12,12 so let’s call it LibDem 12%
    GRN 5,6,6 so let’s call it GREEN 6%

    Fed into EC without tactical that would yield a Lab majority of c. 230 with the tories and LibDems vying for second place on around 70.

    I still think the Conservative vote share will rise a little and that Labour and Reform may slip a little further but I accept that time is limited.
    I think Farage has Ratnered the Reform brand with his position snugly in Putin's small intestine on Ukraine. There will be a close correlation between those who are proud of the UK's assistance to Ukraine and those who might have considered voting Reform. I genuinely can't see Reform coming close to the Conservative vote.

    Perhaps my only bright spot of this whole election would be Farage losing in Clacton.
    Rare agreement by me with a Tory. Farage losing would be magnificent, and I would get even more joy from that than from my eager desire for JRM to be decapitated.
    I would certainly share your joy in both cases.
    Landslide defeat for govt, Reform damp squib and Lib Dems surprising on the upside are my wish list for next week.

    That plus Galloway losing in Rochdale, Corbyn losing in Islington and some weird and surprising results to keep the interest up.
    Farage losing in Clacton has to top any wishlist.

    With an ideal result being Farage comes third (again!) which is why I'm so annoyed Labour have pulled their candidate as it seemed quite plausible until then.
    In Clacton some ex Labour voters will vote for Farage
    TBH I think Farage being elected into an actual job, where he's expected to do things like casework and other boring stuff, might actually shoot his fox.
    Plenty of MPs simply don't do the day to day stuff. I've seen my MP in public once in the last Parliament - People complain about his response to their requests on facebook, but ultimately it's only a tiny % who ever contact an MP. He may well be busy with constituency work but I don't think many people notice either way, and he's going to be in with a much bigger majority this time around whatever he did.

    Farage is probably the political figure with the biggest personal following in the country. I'd imagine the people voting for him in Clacton will be more happy that he's prominent nationally, rather than noticing if he visited a local charity, or helped Bob with his Council tax problems.
    I built up Labour support in Broxtowe from to -9891 to -389 from 1992 to 2010 (winning in 1997, 2001 and 2005), with similar national results in 1992 and 2010; this was mainly due to constituency work and I was never prominent nationally. There was an awful lot of detailed work involved, as well as general political argument. So it can be done, but it's obviously easier to cut a dash with nationally-recognised flourishes.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Broxtowe_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
    Given you clearly did something that bucked a wider trend did you get sought out by candidates to ask what you did ?

    I would imagine you could offer some insight into how to actually hold onto votes.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,061
    Farooq said:

    TudorRose said:

    TimS said:

    Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (24-25 June)

    Lab: 36% (-1 from 19-20 Jun)
    Con: 18% (-1)
    Reform UK: 17% (-1)
    Lib Dem: 15% (+2)
    Green: 8% (+2)
    SNP: 3% (=)


    https://x.com/yougov/status/1806283514288988386?s=61&t=c6bcp0cjChLfQN5Tc8A_6g

    Even down at 36% that's still a 230 majority. LDs also the OO on that poll, even if CorRef merge...

    Con 56, Lab 440, LD 82, Ref 22, Green 4, SNP 23, PC 4, Others 19
    I'm still scratching my head at the ludicrous Green shares some pollsters persist in publishing. And this one is up two. Something is happening with the Green party. It's odd, they've had virtually no coverage yet there they are.

    LLG is up 3 and RefCon down 2 in that poll. LLG 59, RefCon 35. So despite looking very different from other pollsters on individual parties it's bang on average on a left vs right basis.
    There is a serious chance we will surprise everyone.
    Greens. Outside of Bristol and Brighton what seat will they get? 0.
    Waveney?
    Don't bet on it. Brighton and Bristol is the maximum, I think.
    I'm not sure. Everybody hates Blue: even the Blues are clawing their face off. So votes are sloshing to Labour. But Keir Starmer's Ming Vase strategy puts a cap on things, so I reckon there's going to be a slosh back. It's gotta go somewhere, I just don't know where. Hence The Year Of Weeny Parties.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,169
    Ghedebrav said:

    Pulpstar said:

    New Yougov just dropped. No love for Labour it seems but things are starting to look REALLY dire for the Tories


    LAB: 36% (-1)
    CON: 18% (-1)
    REF: 17% (-1)
    LDEM: 15% (+2)
    GRN: 8% (+2)

    Astonishing numbers. ElCalced, that gives:

    LAB: 440
    CON: 56
    REF: 22
    LD: 82
    GRN: 4

    A travesty of democracy if so, as (setting aside Nats and NI) the 59% left-leaning LLG vote would get 526 seats, where the 35% REF/CON right-leaning vote would get just 78. I say this as a person broadly Of The Left (as I am moreso a person Of Democracy).
    I don't think Labour entering government on 36% is particularly good for them though. Even though the majority will be bigger than Blair's it's nowhere near a 1997 position. More like starting in 2003 or some such.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,043

    Leon said:

    Apols for quoting at length, but I think is really good. From a guy called Nick Tyrone who does a weekly email I subscribe to, 'The Week in Brexitland'. He's on twitter as well. Reflects a lot of my thoughts as to how we got here:

    The result of the EU referendum has long been misunderstood by both sides of the Remain-Leave debate. It was neither some sort of Russian PSYOP project gone wild, nor a rational choice for a better future made by the British electorate. It was a cry for help, a wilfully destructive act by the section of the British electorate who made the difference. They were handed a brick and told not to, under any circumstances, throw it through the store window - and they went ahead and hurled it through as an act of defiance. “Deal with that mess,” was the collective voice of Brexit. “Now maybe you’ll be forced to fix things.” The chaos that consumed parliament in the years following the vote was not against the “will of the people”, but a furtherance of what they wanted to happen when they voted for Brexit. They wanted to disrupt the “natural order” and make the political classes squirm. The electorate succeeded in this goal.

    In a sense, the Tories getting annihilated by the electorate is the 2016 result coming full circle, back to the only place it was ever going to end up - the Conservative civil war that created Brexit eating the mothership. The same impulse that drove people to do something slightly crazy, slightly drastic, stepping into the unknown in 2016 has driven them to do the same again in 2024 in a very different direction. “You think we won’t destroy the Conservative party? Watch us.”

    The warnings about “super majorities” sound remarkably like the “Brexit will cost every household £4,000” scare stories from eight years ago. People aren’t listening. They don’t care. They feel angry and betrayed and they finally have a chance to do something about it, namely destroying the governing party in the most brutal fashion imaginable. The electorate are being given numerous ways to do it, as well. If you feel angry from the right, you can vote Reform and destroy the Tories that way; if you want to make sure they get destroyed, you can vote Labour; if you feel angry from a different angle, there’s the Lib Dems to consider. So many ways of destroying the Conservative party out there to choose from this time round.

    What is humorous to watch is Conservative politicians, about to have their careers ended in many circumstances, who cannot begin to fathom that the same destructive forces which gave us Brexit in 2016 have now turned around and are set to annihilate them as well. The winds of hell they unleashed have blown back and obliterated the Tories. You could almost feel sorry for them, if you really tried to.


    Interesting and a lot of truth in it I think. What he misses is that, for many, the vote was less a cry for help, more an act of desperation. And none of the parties have learnt that. This is not just a problem for the Tories but in the longer term for Labour as well. Business as usual is no longer an option and if they try to make it so they will go the same way as the Tories in 5 or 10 years time.
    Exactly right. Brexit was also a scream of anger about immigration. We all know that - I voted Leave for sovereignty and democracy reasons like you - but I wholly accept that many of my fellow Britons were demanding: LOWER IMMIGRATION

    And what did the Tories do once they “got Brexit done”? They raised inmigration to the highest levels in our history. 2.4 millions in 3 years. Utterly insane and criminally irresponsible and for this and mainly this they deserve to die. You cannot betray voters like this, you absolutely cannot
    Immigration was obviously a factor, but I think it was more general than that. If we imagine a present where there had been zero net migration since Britain left the EU, I don't think the mood in the country would be particularly different. A little less pressure on housing, more of a recruitment crisis in the NHS, overall you'd still have a great frustration with the status quo.
    Could it have been (whisper it) that people just didn't want Britain to be part of the EU?
    There are some of you, obviously.
    But could it be... that you were always in the minority ?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,496

    eek said:

    NEW: @JLPartnersPolls @Channel4News focus group of Conservative 2019 voters in Leeds South West and Morley

    💥 Not one Tory 2019 voter we spoke to is even considering voting Conservative on July 4th

    💥 Tories described as "self-centred", "out of touch", "hopeless"

    💥 People described the moments they turned away from the Conservatives: partygate, Covid contracts, the economy, and "the absolute disgrace" Liz Truss

    💥 Sunak's early D-Day exit was singled out as "one of the biggest mistakes a politician has made": seen as "humiliating", "embarrassing", "disgusting"; one voter said they were "fuming"

    💥 Rishi Sunak described as "lost", "out of touch", "false, trying to side with the general public but you just see straight through it", "smug", and a "pathetic toff"

    💥 Reform UK attractive to three of our voters. Nigel Farage described as "misunderstood", "strong", "having good ideas", "great in the jungle"

    💥 Keir Starmer described as "uninspiring", "rambles", "irritating", "corporate", "change", and "wishy washy". But the person who said wishy washy said that is a strength, as we "don't need a Donald Trump running our country"

    💥 Labour was the most popular choice of the vast majority, with almost all planning on voting for them in one week's time

    💥 But everyone said it was a vote against the Tories rather than a vote for Labour. In the words of one voter, "they've not won me, the Tories have just lost me". All said they would be open to going back to the Tories in the future, or voting for any party. This period of mass voter volatility is not going anywhere.

    https://x.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1806239023796498488

    Video https://t.co/qPsJDbyIqp

    My prediction of a one-term Labour government that then also gets flushed down the toilet looking possible then.
    The same set of forces that have demolished the possibility of the Tories forming the next government are still in play. The formula is: Being the government in the reality of the present moment; There being a possible alternative government.

    Labour have the job of moral and hopeful leadership, currently lacking; The Tories have the job of being a possible alternative.

    If both fail in this the next election will be even more interesting than this one.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,651
    TimS said:

    Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (24-25 June)

    Lab: 36% (-1 from 19-20 Jun)
    Con: 18% (-1)
    Reform UK: 17% (-1)
    Lib Dem: 15% (+2)
    Green: 8% (+2)
    SNP: 3% (=)


    https://x.com/yougov/status/1806283514288988386?s=61&t=c6bcp0cjChLfQN5Tc8A_6g

    Even down at 36% that's still a 230 majority. LDs also the OO on that poll, even if CorRef merge...

    Con 56, Lab 440, LD 82, Ref 22, Green 4, SNP 23, PC 4, Others 19
    I'm still scratching my head at the ludicrous Green shares some pollsters persist in publishing. And this one is up two. Something is happening with the Green party. It's odd, they've had virtually no coverage yet there they are.

    LLG is up 3 and RefCon down 2 in that poll. LLG 59, RefCon 35. So despite looking very different from other pollsters on individual parties it's bang on average on a left vs right basis.
    A lot of discussion of the Reform vote and whether it would fold back into Con but not so much about Green folding back into Lab. Since the highest Green vote in a GE is 3.8% I believe (2.7% last time), 8% would seem unlikely.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    He’s such a twatty headmaster.

    “Keir Starmer has told England fans there is “too much criticism” of Gareth Southgate’s team after their group stage performances in Euro 2024 – and urged supporters to “get behind them”.

    Speaking on the campaign trail in Staffordshire, he added: “Get them over the line because this is a really important competition.

    “England always do a bit of this at the beginning of competitions ... but it’s a brilliant squad of players, all had great seasons for their respective clubs. Just get behind the team. I want less of the criticism, more of the support

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,043
    edited June 27

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (24-25 June)

    Lab: 36% (-1 from 19-20 Jun)
    Con: 18% (-1)
    Reform UK: 17% (-1)
    Lib Dem: 15% (+2)
    Green: 8% (+2)
    SNP: 3% (=)


    https://x.com/yougov/status/1806283514288988386?s=61&t=c6bcp0cjChLfQN5Tc8A_6g

    It’s like we’re approaching an Electoral Singularity. Even the light is bending
    I predicted Lab would get about 36-37% at the start of the campaign IIRC.
    Me. My bet for Labour on 34-36% at 30/1 looking possible too.
    That's a great bet at those odds.
    Even if (prob) a value loser.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,212
    Carnyx said:

    eek said:

    Today's photo is a screenshot from the Post Office Inquiry - I flicked over for 2 seconds and saw this..




    The important thing here is that remember this is a banking system - if what is written in that email doesn't scare you enough to resign immediately nothing will...

    The first para - I can't make sense of it. The writer says 'here are some examples of X' but then says 'we are not suggesting that X has happened'. Eh??
    I think what he is trying to say is that

    1) There are duplicates
    2) These occurred when copying to the audit server
    3) There are not duplicates in the original data. So it's quite alright that there duplicates in the audit data.

    The smell of bullshit from this document is overwhelming.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,664
    edited June 27
    Sandpit said:

    AlsoLei said:

    Omnium said:

    Sandpit said:

    Omnium said:

    Nasa are hiring SpaceX to push the ISS out of orbit it seems.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cnl02jl5pzno

    Surely they could park the ISS somewhere like a Lagrange point or something as all that stuff could be used more usefully than polluting the Pacific? Maybe even as an emergency refuge.

    Well they’re not going to get Boeing to do it, after all the crap that company is currently giving NASA.

    The problem is that it will rapidly degrade and start to disintegrate once systems start being switched off, so it needs to be either pushed deep into space or brought back to Earth.
    Just seems rather unambitious and wasteful to me.
    Getting to one of the stable Lagrange points (L4 or L5) needs roughly the same delta-v as getting to the moon, about 4km/s

    The delta-v needed to do a controlled deorbit, by contrast, is only on the order of 100m/s.

    So it's much, much easier to de-orbit than to park it at L5.
    And you really don’t want a mess of broken-up space junk taking valuable space at a Lagrange Point.
    Set the controls for the heart of the Sun...



    [Yeah, I know Δv is very large]
  • "The second and third Covid lockdowns were the biggest ever mistake made by a British government in peacetime, Nigel Farage has said."

    The Reform UK leader is speaking to 1,000 people at the Rainton Arena. [In Sunderland]

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/27/general-election-live-sunak-starmer-farage/
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,392
    Pulpstar said:

    New Yougov just dropped. No love for Labour it seems but things are starting to look REALLY dire for the Tories


    LAB: 36% (-1)
    CON: 18% (-1)
    REF: 17% (-1)
    LDEM: 15% (+2)
    GRN: 8% (+2)

    Labour drifting down as expected as we approach the day. Was always going to happen.

    What has NOT happened is any drift up for the Tories - its gone down too!

    Either the polls are massively wrong, and Reform is hugely overstated, or we about to see something extraordinary. If this was the result, and Labour achieved a huge majority on that basis, I can see Labour doing absolutely nothing about the voting system, with the exception of lowering the age to 16 year olds up. Why change if the system works for you? But generally getting a third of the voters should not imply a massive vote of confidence!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,169

    TimS said:

    Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (24-25 June)

    Lab: 36% (-1 from 19-20 Jun)
    Con: 18% (-1)
    Reform UK: 17% (-1)
    Lib Dem: 15% (+2)
    Green: 8% (+2)
    SNP: 3% (=)


    https://x.com/yougov/status/1806283514288988386?s=61&t=c6bcp0cjChLfQN5Tc8A_6g

    Even down at 36% that's still a 230 majority. LDs also the OO on that poll, even if CorRef merge...

    Con 56, Lab 440, LD 82, Ref 22, Green 4, SNP 23, PC 4, Others 19
    I'm still scratching my head at the ludicrous Green shares some pollsters persist in publishing. And this one is up two. Something is happening with the Green party. It's odd, they've had virtually no coverage yet there they are.

    LLG is up 3 and RefCon down 2 in that poll. LLG 59, RefCon 35. So despite looking very different from other pollsters on individual parties it's bang on average on a left vs right basis.
    A lot of discussion of the Reform vote and whether it would fold back into Con but not so much about Green folding back into Lab. Since the highest Green vote in a GE is 3.8% I believe (2.7% last time), 8% would seem unlikely.
    Possibly it doesn't ?

    The big picture electoral picture is such a forgone conclusion and Starmer has hardly endeared himself to the furthest left aka Green recently. I don't think it'll be 8% but surely it's primed for a record.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,651
    Pulpstar said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Pulpstar said:

    New Yougov just dropped. No love for Labour it seems but things are starting to look REALLY dire for the Tories


    LAB: 36% (-1)
    CON: 18% (-1)
    REF: 17% (-1)
    LDEM: 15% (+2)
    GRN: 8% (+2)

    Astonishing numbers. ElCalced, that gives:

    LAB: 440
    CON: 56
    REF: 22
    LD: 82
    GRN: 4

    A travesty of democracy if so, as (setting aside Nats and NI) the 59% left-leaning LLG vote would get 526 seats, where the 35% REF/CON right-leaning vote would get just 78. I say this as a person broadly Of The Left (as I am moreso a person Of Democracy).
    I don't think Labour entering government on 36% is particularly good for them though. Even though the majority will be bigger than Blair's it's nowhere near a 1997 position. More like starting in 2003 or some such.
    It's been said many times though that some of that is tactical. I would vote Labour in a PR-world but as we have FPTP I am going to vote LD as the only hope of defeating the incumbent Tory in my constituency. I am sure the boost and LD numbers reflects a lot of people doing the same.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,119
    viewcode said:

    TimS said:

    Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (24-25 June)

    Lab: 36% (-1 from 19-20 Jun)
    Con: 18% (-1)
    Reform UK: 17% (-1)
    Lib Dem: 15% (+2)
    Green: 8% (+2)
    SNP: 3% (=)


    https://x.com/yougov/status/1806283514288988386?s=61&t=c6bcp0cjChLfQN5Tc8A_6g

    Even down at 36% that's still a 230 majority. LDs also the OO on that poll, even if CorRef merge...

    Con 56, Lab 440, LD 82, Ref 22, Green 4, SNP 23, PC 4, Others 19
    I'm still scratching my head at the ludicrous Green shares some pollsters persist in publishing. And this one is up two. Something is happening with the Green party. It's odd, they've had virtually no coverage yet there they are.

    LLG is up 3 and RefCon down 2 in that poll. LLG 59, RefCon 35. So despite looking very different from other pollsters on individual parties it's bang on average on a left vs right basis.
    I'm having a bit of a nervous breakdown on betting. I normally only make one of two bets: X will get most seats/votes, or X will get an overall majority. But the odds on Labour doing both are so small there's no point: I'm not betting £500 to get £5, the benefit is less than the taxi fare!

    So I'm going to be a bit experimental and (if I can) bet on the little parties. So that's

    Plaid Cymru: Ynys Môn and Caerfyrddin
    Greens: Brighton Pavilion, Bristol Central, Waveney Valley and North Herefordshire.
    Reform: Clacton

    I don't know if I can pull this off as I don't bet online and the local bookies wet themselves when I bet on politics, so it might not be doable. So I'll let you know what happens. Who would you suggest for the Golden Shower LDs?

    (Incidentally, if anybody knows better Green/Plaid/Reform targets, please say)
    Reform odds in Ashfield are around evens.

    I'm not sure which side of that I would want to be tbh.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,496
    Ghedebrav said:

    Pulpstar said:

    New Yougov just dropped. No love for Labour it seems but things are starting to look REALLY dire for the Tories


    LAB: 36% (-1)
    CON: 18% (-1)
    REF: 17% (-1)
    LDEM: 15% (+2)
    GRN: 8% (+2)

    Astonishing numbers. ElCalced, that gives:

    LAB: 440
    CON: 56
    REF: 22
    LD: 82
    GRN: 4

    A travesty of democracy if so, as (setting aside Nats and NI) the 59% left-leaning LLG vote would get 526 seats, where the 35% REF/CON right-leaning vote would get just 78. I say this as a person broadly Of The Left (as I am moreso a person Of Democracy).
    Not a travesty. Everyone knows our rules. To come first in 440 seats is open to all comers on the same terms and means you have done tons better than all the rest.

    The right wing split vote is more than about maths. It's about the failure of the centre right to operate well within our system. This involves a massive lack of leadership. Other systems are available. This one has great merits.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,404
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Farage is a fucking idiot. He would now - I am sure - be well ahead of the Tories if he hadn’t vomited up his foolishness about Putin

    The people are desperate for alternative to the Tories AND Labour - but they’re not gonna vote for a party that thinks “Hitler had his reasons”

    Funny how election campaigns always cause politicians to say stupid things that damage their own position, such as Starmer yesterday with his Bangladesh comments.
    Do we know that will actually hurt him?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,688

    Pulpstar said:

    New Yougov just dropped. No love for Labour it seems but things are starting to look REALLY dire for the Tories


    LAB: 36% (-1)
    CON: 18% (-1)
    REF: 17% (-1)
    LDEM: 15% (+2)
    GRN: 8% (+2)

    Baxtered.

    Lab 440.
    Con 56.
    Libdem 82.
    Reform 22.
    Green 4.

    A lot is going to depend on whether the Tory/Reform split is even or not in each constituency or wholesale tactical voting takes place
    I'm going to die laughing if this is where we end up on 5th July.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,232
    I’ve changed my mind about ile de sein. It is even better than I thought and if any PBers follow me here I seriously recommend staying one night, because it must be incredible in the dark when the trippers go home. Sadly I have to leave!

    What I’ve since learned

    It has a cholera cemetery - one cholera epidemic is the reason the women switched to wearing black hats (unique in Brittany where they famously wore white hats)

    When the fishing was bad the men relied on the women to make money from seaweed (turning it into soda in furnaces) or by “selling lichen”

    The beaches and seas are fervent with wildlife: seals, dolphins, many many birds

    There is an Iron Age shell midden

    The church is built on a 12th century chapel which was itself built on two parallel 6000 year old megalithic alignments - the menhir by the mayor who told me about the boche in the u boat slaughtering the fishermen is the last of the alignments

    The island has no natural water. None. They used
    to rely on “skimming rainwater”. It is said that when a man from ile dr sein greets you his first words will be “give me water”

    Plus it was home to those ancient virgin female druids and then evil witches and then infamous wreckers

    It is probably the most interesting place I have been in France. It’s also rather lovely in a sad way. The closest comparison is st kilda - which only just pips it because kilda has that epic grandeur
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,061
    edited June 27
    LibDem bets:

    Carshalton & Wallington
    North East Fife
    Wimbledon
    Sheffield Hallam
    South Cambridgeshire
    Cheltenham
    Mid Dunbartonshire
    Cheadle
    Eastbourne
    Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c133p016pg4o

    Also Winchester. I'm surprised it isn't LibDem already, being posh as f***
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,615
    kyf_100 said:

    eek said:

    NEW: @JLPartnersPolls @Channel4News focus group of Conservative 2019 voters in Leeds South West and Morley

    💥 Not one Tory 2019 voter we spoke to is even considering voting Conservative on July 4th

    💥 Tories described as "self-centred", "out of touch", "hopeless"

    💥 People described the moments they turned away from the Conservatives: partygate, Covid contracts, the economy, and "the absolute disgrace" Liz Truss

    💥 Sunak's early D-Day exit was singled out as "one of the biggest mistakes a politician has made": seen as "humiliating", "embarrassing", "disgusting"; one voter said they were "fuming"

    💥 Rishi Sunak described as "lost", "out of touch", "false, trying to side with the general public but you just see straight through it", "smug", and a "pathetic toff"

    💥 Reform UK attractive to three of our voters. Nigel Farage described as "misunderstood", "strong", "having good ideas", "great in the jungle"

    💥 Keir Starmer described as "uninspiring", "rambles", "irritating", "corporate", "change", and "wishy washy". But the person who said wishy washy said that is a strength, as we "don't need a Donald Trump running our country"

    💥 Labour was the most popular choice of the vast majority, with almost all planning on voting for them in one week's time

    💥 But everyone said it was a vote against the Tories rather than a vote for Labour. In the words of one voter, "they've not won me, the Tories have just lost me". All said they would be open to going back to the Tories in the future, or voting for any party. This period of mass voter volatility is not going anywhere.

    https://x.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1806239023796498488

    Video https://t.co/qPsJDbyIqp

    My prediction of a one-term Labour government that then also gets flushed down the toilet looking possible then.
    Yep.

    In five years time we will have higher taxes, immigration will still be high, and the economy will still be on life support - or even worse, due to a combination of higher taxes and structural decline.

    Pretty much every election since the GFC has been "this is broke, fix this" and successive governments fail to fix anything.
    At some point people might start to realise that the problems are structural (mostly down to worsening age structure of the population and the ills of consumer capitalism) and not amenable to government action.

    But no, they will still fall for politicians selling snake oil scams like Brexit. Anything other than have to accept that they need to work longer, pay more and get less.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,043
    algarkirk said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Pulpstar said:

    New Yougov just dropped. No love for Labour it seems but things are starting to look REALLY dire for the Tories


    LAB: 36% (-1)
    CON: 18% (-1)
    REF: 17% (-1)
    LDEM: 15% (+2)
    GRN: 8% (+2)

    Astonishing numbers. ElCalced, that gives:

    LAB: 440
    CON: 56
    REF: 22
    LD: 82
    GRN: 4

    A travesty of democracy if so, as (setting aside Nats and NI) the 59% left-leaning LLG vote would get 526 seats, where the 35% REF/CON right-leaning vote would get just 78. I say this as a person broadly Of The Left (as I am moreso a person Of Democracy).
    Not a travesty. Everyone knows our rules. To come first in 440 seats is open to all comers on the same terms and means you have done tons better than all the rest.

    The right wing split vote is more than about maths. It's about the failure of the centre right to operate well within our system. This involves a massive lack of leadership. Other systems are available. This one has great merits.
    Providing representative democracy not being one of them.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,984
    The latest CCHQ attack ad that ends up making Angela and her policies look good.

    https://x.com/Conservatives/status/1806291306064339155

    Possibly the biggest fail of their campaign, these social media ads.
  • Pulpstar said:

    New Yougov just dropped. No love for Labour it seems but things are starting to look REALLY dire for the Tories


    LAB: 36% (-1)
    CON: 18% (-1)
    REF: 17% (-1)
    LDEM: 15% (+2)
    GRN: 8% (+2)

    Baxtered.

    Lab 440.
    Con 56.
    Libdem 82.
    Reform 22.
    Green 4.

    A lot is going to depend on whether the Tory/Reform split is even or not in each constituency or wholesale tactical voting takes place
    I'm going to die laughing if this is where we end up on 5th July.
    Or the majority of Reform voters will switch to Tory. Highly likely.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,615

    Pulpstar said:

    New Yougov just dropped. No love for Labour it seems but things are starting to look REALLY dire for the Tories


    LAB: 36% (-1)
    CON: 18% (-1)
    REF: 17% (-1)
    LDEM: 15% (+2)
    GRN: 8% (+2)

    Baxtered.

    Lab 440.
    Con 56.
    Libdem 82.
    Reform 22.
    Green 4.

    A lot is going to depend on whether the Tory/Reform split is even or not in each constituency or wholesale tactical voting takes place
    I'm going to die laughing if this is where we end up on 5th July.
    I shall have popcorn induced indigestion!
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,362

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Farage is a fucking idiot. He would now - I am sure - be well ahead of the Tories if he hadn’t vomited up his foolishness about Putin

    The people are desperate for alternative to the Tories AND Labour - but they’re not gonna vote for a party that thinks “Hitler had his reasons”

    Funny how election campaigns always cause politicians to say stupid things that damage their own position, such as Starmer yesterday with his Bangladesh comments.
    Do we know that will actually hurt him?
    Apsana Begum was very angry so his own team are not impressed.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028
    With such voter volatility, the pressure on Labour to deliver in the next 5 years is going to be massive. Could throw up a few interesting policies / reforms / points of contention, as inevitably they need to go to the country with a half decent record sell
  • Pulpstar said:

    New Yougov just dropped. No love for Labour it seems but things are starting to look REALLY dire for the Tories


    LAB: 36% (-1)
    CON: 18% (-1)
    REF: 17% (-1)
    LDEM: 15% (+2)
    GRN: 8% (+2)

    Baxtered.

    Lab 440.
    Con 56.
    Libdem 82.
    Reform 22.
    Green 4.

    A lot is going to depend on whether the Tory/Reform split is even or not in each constituency or wholesale tactical voting takes place
    I'm going to die laughing if this is where we end up on 5th July.
    Or the majority of Reform voters will switch to Tory. Highly likely.
    They have do it before and will do it again.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,408
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Apols for quoting at length, but I think is really good. From a guy called Nick Tyrone who does a weekly email I subscribe to, 'The Week in Brexitland'. He's on twitter as well. Reflects a lot of my thoughts as to how we got here:

    The result of the EU referendum has long been misunderstood by both sides of the Remain-Leave debate. It was neither some sort of Russian PSYOP project gone wild, nor a rational choice for a better future made by the British electorate. It was a cry for help, a wilfully destructive act by the section of the British electorate who made the difference. They were handed a brick and told not to, under any circumstances, throw it through the store window - and they went ahead and hurled it through as an act of defiance. “Deal with that mess,” was the collective voice of Brexit. “Now maybe you’ll be forced to fix things.” The chaos that consumed parliament in the years following the vote was not against the “will of the people”, but a furtherance of what they wanted to happen when they voted for Brexit. They wanted to disrupt the “natural order” and make the political classes squirm. The electorate succeeded in this goal.

    In a sense, the Tories getting annihilated by the electorate is the 2016 result coming full circle, back to the only place it was ever going to end up - the Conservative civil war that created Brexit eating the mothership. The same impulse that drove people to do something slightly crazy, slightly drastic, stepping into the unknown in 2016 has driven them to do the same again in 2024 in a very different direction. “You think we won’t destroy the Conservative party? Watch us.”

    The warnings about “super majorities” sound remarkably like the “Brexit will cost every household £4,000” scare stories from eight years ago. People aren’t listening. They don’t care. They feel angry and betrayed and they finally have a chance to do something about it, namely destroying the governing party in the most brutal fashion imaginable. The electorate are being given numerous ways to do it, as well. If you feel angry from the right, you can vote Reform and destroy the Tories that way; if you want to make sure they get destroyed, you can vote Labour; if you feel angry from a different angle, there’s the Lib Dems to consider. So many ways of destroying the Conservative party out there to choose from this time round.

    What is humorous to watch is Conservative politicians, about to have their careers ended in many circumstances, who cannot begin to fathom that the same destructive forces which gave us Brexit in 2016 have now turned around and are set to annihilate them as well. The winds of hell they unleashed have blown back and obliterated the Tories. You could almost feel sorry for them, if you really tried to.


    Interesting and a lot of truth in it I think. What he misses is that, for many, the vote was less a cry for help, more an act of desperation. And none of the parties have learnt that. This is not just a problem for the Tories but in the longer term for Labour as well. Business as usual is no longer an option and if they try to make it so they will go the same way as the Tories in 5 or 10 years time.
    Exactly right. Brexit was also a scream of anger about immigration. We all know that - I voted Leave for sovereignty and democracy reasons like you - but I wholly accept that many of my fellow Britons were demanding: LOWER IMMIGRATION

    And what did the Tories do once they “got Brexit done”? They raised inmigration to the highest levels in our history. 2.4 millions in 3 years. Utterly insane and criminally irresponsible and for this and mainly this they deserve to die. You cannot betray voters like this, you absolutely cannot
    Immigration was obviously a factor, but I think it was more general than that. If we imagine a present where there had been zero net migration since Britain left the EU, I don't think the mood in the country would be particularly different. A little less pressure on housing, more of a recruitment crisis in the NHS, overall you'd still have a great frustration with the status quo.
    Could it have been (whisper it) that people just didn't want Britain to be part of the EU?
    There are some of you, obviously.
    But could it be... that you were always in the minority ?
    After immigration, more money for the NHS was the most frequent reason I heard for leaving the EU. That was, after all, one of the main selling points of the leave campaign. Those people expected the money that was "wasted" on the EU to be diverted to the NHS and that the NHS would consequently be able to provide a much better service. Instead, they've seen the NHS coming close to collapse and are left wondering what the hell happened to the money that was supposed to be used to improve it.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,414
    Pulpstar said:

    Leon said:

    Has this possibiity been discussed?

    Let's say Tories end up with a few more seats than LibDems. Official opposition status awaits.

    Might be tempting for a few Starmer-sceptic Labour MPs to jump ship to LibDems and push their numbers past the Tories. In those circs do the LibDems become official opposition with all the extra profile and perquisites?

    Might the DUP take the Tory whip to get them over the line? APNI do the same for LibDems?

    Will this be being war-gamed?

    Yes, we've talked about this a bit. It will be down to the Speaker to adjudicate. Much potential for all sorts of things to affect it - by-elections, defections, coalitions, perhaps His Majesty's Very Loyal Opposition, if a bunch of Labour backbenchers decided there is more room on the other side of the chamber (though that would be high levels of skulduggery, if they took up the Labour whip again in time to be candidates at the election following).

    The Lib Dems would, I'd think, be concentrating on winning the seats to make it a necessary question to answer, and the Tories seem to be preoccupied with internal post-election manoeuvring.
    No, the Tories are going to be in the intensive care unit or a secure psych ward. Seriously. If these polls verify they will so shocked and traumatised it will take money months for them to return to “normality” - and indeed they might not do so

    Some of these polls put them on about 30 seats and behind the Lib Dems, with Farage chortling at them in the Commons
    Of course. Let's wait till Friday shall we.
    "It will be down to the Speaker to adjudicate."

    Only if the two parties - Lib and Tory - end up on same number of seats I think.
    Nigel Evans likely has lost his seat in this scenario so all three positions below Hoyle will be vacant. I assume it would be 1 Labour, 1 Conservative, 1 Lib Dem for deputy speaker/1st deputy ways and means, 2nd deputy ways and means. Possibly it'd come down to Alliance vs UUP elected in Northern Ireland to decide who the LOTO is in this scenario, although Rishi would likely resign as an MP immediately meaning it would be Davey.
    Would Rishi still be an MP on that scenario?
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,457
    TimS said:

    Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (24-25 June)

    Lab: 36% (-1 from 19-20 Jun)
    Con: 18% (-1)
    Reform UK: 17% (-1)
    Lib Dem: 15% (+2)
    Green: 8% (+2)
    SNP: 3% (=)


    https://x.com/yougov/status/1806283514288988386?s=61&t=c6bcp0cjChLfQN5Tc8A_6g

    Even down at 36% that's still a 230 majority. LDs also the OO on that poll, even if CorRef merge...

    Con 56, Lab 440, LD 82, Ref 22, Green 4, SNP 23, PC 4, Others 19
    I'm still scratching my head at the ludicrous Green shares some pollsters persist in publishing. And this one is up two. Something is happening with the Green party. It's odd, they've had virtually no coverage yet there they are.

    LLG is up 3 and RefCon down 2 in that poll. LLG 59, RefCon 35. So despite looking very different from other pollsters on individual parties it's bang on average on a left vs right basis.
    I took an impromptu day off yesterday, and walked the north Kent coast - 30km from Broadstairs to Whitstable.

    Passing through three constituencies: East Thanet (notional 2019 Con maj. 7,690), Herne Bay and Sandwich (notional 2019 Con maj. 20,218), and Canterbury (2019 Lab maj. 2,165). You'd expect all three to be a straight Tory/Labour fight, with the Greens nowhere.

    But I saw as many Green posters as Labour - concentrated in the hipster part of Margate's old town and the terraced bit of Whitstable.



    And there were no Tory or Refuk placards or posters to be seen anywhere, not even in places like Birchington which was covered in Tory placards in 2019.

    There's definitely a bit of a Green surge happening, but I'm not sure that the party is going to be able to do much to take advantage.
  • Let's really see if Labour can beat Tony's number of seats. I have my doubts about that as well.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,655
    Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (24-25 June)

    Lab: 36% (-1 from 19-20 Jun)
    Con: 18% (-1)
    Reform UK: 17% (-1)
    Lib Dem: 15% (+2)
    Green: 8% (+2)
    SNP: 3% (=)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,651
    TimS said:

    The latest CCHQ attack ad that ends up making Angela and her policies look good.

    https://x.com/Conservatives/status/1806291306064339155

    Possibly the biggest fail of their campaign, these social media ads.

    That is just stunningly stupid. Maybe there really is a Labour mole in CCHQ?
  • TimS said:

    The latest CCHQ attack ad that ends up making Angela and her policies look good.

    https://x.com/Conservatives/status/1806291306064339155

    Possibly the biggest fail of their campaign, these social media ads.

    Is that a Labour Party broadcast. Might as well be.

    What the beret and Poirot Moustache are about defeats me though.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,009

    Is it entirely inconceivable that Labour will almost sweep the board in the UK? If so the DUP would be His Majesties Loyalist Opposition.

    LOL

    (In both senses!)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,688
    AlsoLei said:

    TimS said:

    Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (24-25 June)

    Lab: 36% (-1 from 19-20 Jun)
    Con: 18% (-1)
    Reform UK: 17% (-1)
    Lib Dem: 15% (+2)
    Green: 8% (+2)
    SNP: 3% (=)


    https://x.com/yougov/status/1806283514288988386?s=61&t=c6bcp0cjChLfQN5Tc8A_6g

    Even down at 36% that's still a 230 majority. LDs also the OO on that poll, even if CorRef merge...

    Con 56, Lab 440, LD 82, Ref 22, Green 4, SNP 23, PC 4, Others 19
    I'm still scratching my head at the ludicrous Green shares some pollsters persist in publishing. And this one is up two. Something is happening with the Green party. It's odd, they've had virtually no coverage yet there they are.

    LLG is up 3 and RefCon down 2 in that poll. LLG 59, RefCon 35. So despite looking very different from other pollsters on individual parties it's bang on average on a left vs right basis.
    I took an impromptu day off yesterday, and walked the north Kent coast - 30km from Broadstairs to Whitstable.

    Passing through three constituencies: East Thanet (notional 2019 Con maj. 7,690), Herne Bay and Sandwich (notional 2019 Con maj. 20,218), and Canterbury (2019 Lab maj. 2,165). You'd expect all three to be a straight Tory/Labour fight, with the Greens nowhere.

    But I saw as many Green posters as Labour - concentrated in the hipster part of Margate's old town and the terraced bit of Whitstable.



    And there were no Tory or Refuk placards or posters to be seen anywhere, not even in places like Birchington which was covered in Tory placards in 2019.

    There's definitely a bit of a Green surge happening, but I'm not sure that the party is going to be able to do much to take advantage.
    If they can hold Brighton and take Bristol Central and N Herefordshire then that would be a massive step forward for the party.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,169

    Pulpstar said:

    Leon said:

    Has this possibiity been discussed?

    Let's say Tories end up with a few more seats than LibDems. Official opposition status awaits.

    Might be tempting for a few Starmer-sceptic Labour MPs to jump ship to LibDems and push their numbers past the Tories. In those circs do the LibDems become official opposition with all the extra profile and perquisites?

    Might the DUP take the Tory whip to get them over the line? APNI do the same for LibDems?

    Will this be being war-gamed?

    Yes, we've talked about this a bit. It will be down to the Speaker to adjudicate. Much potential for all sorts of things to affect it - by-elections, defections, coalitions, perhaps His Majesty's Very Loyal Opposition, if a bunch of Labour backbenchers decided there is more room on the other side of the chamber (though that would be high levels of skulduggery, if they took up the Labour whip again in time to be candidates at the election following).

    The Lib Dems would, I'd think, be concentrating on winning the seats to make it a necessary question to answer, and the Tories seem to be preoccupied with internal post-election manoeuvring.
    No, the Tories are going to be in the intensive care unit or a secure psych ward. Seriously. If these polls verify they will so shocked and traumatised it will take money months for them to return to “normality” - and indeed they might not do so

    Some of these polls put them on about 30 seats and behind the Lib Dems, with Farage chortling at them in the Commons
    Of course. Let's wait till Friday shall we.
    "It will be down to the Speaker to adjudicate."

    Only if the two parties - Lib and Tory - end up on same number of seats I think.
    Nigel Evans likely has lost his seat in this scenario so all three positions below Hoyle will be vacant. I assume it would be 1 Labour, 1 Conservative, 1 Lib Dem for deputy speaker/1st deputy ways and means, 2nd deputy ways and means. Possibly it'd come down to Alliance vs UUP elected in Northern Ireland to decide who the LOTO is in this scenario, although Rishi would likely resign as an MP immediately meaning it would be Davey.
    Would Rishi still be an MP on that scenario?
    I think he would be with equal Tory and Lib Dem seats.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,688
    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    New Yougov just dropped. No love for Labour it seems but things are starting to look REALLY dire for the Tories


    LAB: 36% (-1)
    CON: 18% (-1)
    REF: 17% (-1)
    LDEM: 15% (+2)
    GRN: 8% (+2)

    Baxtered.

    Lab 440.
    Con 56.
    Libdem 82.
    Reform 22.
    Green 4.

    A lot is going to depend on whether the Tory/Reform split is even or not in each constituency or wholesale tactical voting takes place
    I'm going to die laughing if this is where we end up on 5th July.
    I shall have popcorn induced indigestion!
    I'm actually ordering some popcorn for the GE night!!!
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028

    TimS said:

    The latest CCHQ attack ad that ends up making Angela and her policies look good.

    https://x.com/Conservatives/status/1806291306064339155

    Possibly the biggest fail of their campaign, these social media ads.

    Is that a Labour Party broadcast. Might as well be.

    What the beret and Poirot Moustache are about defeats me though.
    I’m sure most of the working age population are terrified at the risk of *checks notes* improved employment rights..
  • Brexit party voters voted for that party in the local elections and switched to Tory in the General election irrespective of who they said they would vote for before the GE. Why not do it again?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,043
    Leon said:

    I’ve changed my mind about ile de sein. It is even better than I thought and if any PBers follow me here I seriously recommend staying one night, because it must be incredible in the dark when the trippers go home. Sadly I have to leave!

    What I’ve since learned

    It has a cholera cemetery - one cholera epidemic is the reason the women switched to wearing black hats (unique in Brittany where they famously wore white hats)

    When the fishing was bad the men relied on the women to make money from seaweed (turning it into soda in furnaces) or by “selling lichen”

    The beaches and seas are fervent with wildlife: seals, dolphins, many many birds

    There is an Iron Age shell midden

    The church is built on a 12th century chapel which was itself built on two parallel 6000 year old megalithic alignments - the menhir by the mayor who told me about the boche in the u boat slaughtering the fishermen is the last of the alignments

    The island has no natural water. None. They used
    to rely on “skimming rainwater”. It is said that when a man from ile dr sein greets you his first words will be “give me water”

    Plus it was home to those ancient virgin female druids and then evil witches and then infamous wreckers

    It is probably the most interesting place I have been in France. It’s also rather lovely in a sad way. The closest comparison is st kilda - which only just pips it because kilda has that epic grandeur

    It does sound a very nice bit of the planet.
    I've only ever spent a couple of days in Brittany, and always considered going back.

    On the odd occasion, a twinge of envy for your lifestyle surfaces.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,651

    Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (24-25 June)

    Lab: 36% (-1 from 19-20 Jun)
    Con: 18% (-1)
    Reform UK: 17% (-1)
    Lib Dem: 15% (+2)
    Green: 8% (+2)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Yes Labour just scraping a 230 majority with that one. Starmer fans... etc.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,688
    TimS said:

    The latest CCHQ attack ad that ends up making Angela and her policies look good.

    https://x.com/Conservatives/status/1806291306064339155

    Possibly the biggest fail of their campaign, these social media ads.

    Jeez. So ending shitty contracts is basically the same as Joe Stalin killing millions?

    No doubt the social media whiz who presumably is someone's nephew or niece did PPE at Oxford. Showing once again how little they learn there.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,664
    edited June 27

    Carnyx said:

    eek said:

    Today's photo is a screenshot from the Post Office Inquiry - I flicked over for 2 seconds and saw this..




    The important thing here is that remember this is a banking system - if what is written in that email doesn't scare you enough to resign immediately nothing will...

    The first para - I can't make sense of it. The writer says 'here are some examples of X' but then says 'we are not suggesting that X has happened'. Eh??
    I think what he is trying to say is that

    1) There are duplicates
    2) These occurred when copying to the audit server
    3) There are not duplicates in the original data. So it's quite alright that there duplicates in the audit data.

    The smell of bullshit from this document is overwhelming.
    I'm trying to understand how that could happen in a sane database and what it means.

    The audit log must presumably say 'a record was created with these values'.

    This log record is duplicated but there's only one corresponding transaction in the main data.

    How in the name of the wee man was there not a unique transaction reference assigned as the very first step in the whole process?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,009
    Nigelb said:

    On the betting scandal, I suspect we'll end up with a political ban on politicians betting on politics. From what I have read there are an awful lot of cheeky punts placed by politicians, so if this goes all puritanical then it could be all kinds of fun.

    There's a world of difference between betting on yourself, your party, your candidates elsewhere to win, and betting on yourself to lose. Or betting using insider knowledge on when the election will be. Especially if your job is to get your party ready for that election and you don't bother.

    The challenge is that less betting means less odds. And they are a useful tool for gauging how elections are progressing. The Press and Journal this morning in a piece about Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey notes that Ross was 1% - 100/1 - to retain his seat in 2019 and do so. Useful data surely!

    Someone was asking earlier - I do not hold any bets on anyone.

    That's why I called it Insidergate.

    Does anyone really care if politicians bet absent insider knowledge ?
    I certainly don't.
    Well Sir Philip is having to stress that he is trying to win, despite betting on himself to lose.

    So doing a bizarre interview on Sky News, singing the praises of Nigel Farage, represents his best efforts to win, rather than trying to throw the game. I'm glad we have his assurances.
  • Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (24-25 June)

    Lab: 36% (-1 from 19-20 Jun)
    Con: 18% (-1)
    Reform UK: 17% (-1)
    Lib Dem: 15% (+2)
    Green: 8% (+2)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Yes Labour just scraping a 230 majority with that one. Starmer fans... etc.

    Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (24-25 June)

    Lab: 36% (-1 from 19-20 Jun)
    Con: 18% (-1)
    Reform UK: 17% (-1)
    Lib Dem: 15% (+2)
    Green: 8% (+2)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Yes Labour just scraping a 230 majority with that one. Starmer fans... etc.
    You Gov. I can't wait for this election to be over and have a break from their bollocks. And the rest of these pollsters.
  • LloydBanksLloydBanks Posts: 45
    Lennon said:

    Cookie said:



    Looking up the cricket grounds (including outgrounds) strikes me as a cheerfully pointless endeavour. Fully on board with that. My guess is that the main grounds are largely Lab now and will become possibly solely Lab; but that the outgrounds favour the Tories.

    I'll give you Lancs (Stretford and Urmston) for starters. Think the outgrounds are Aigburth (Liverpool Riverside, I think) and, I think Lytham (which would be Fylde, I guess).
    Where else? Durham (Chester-le-Street) would be Durham North. Notts would be Rushcliffe. Yorkshire I think is Leeds NW, with Scarborough as Scarborough and Whitby.
    Very much looking forward to this...

    Hampshire's Rose Bowl is in Eastleigh rather than either of the Southampton seats - so presumably Lib Dem gain from Conservative?

    The Oval (Surrey) is (and always has been) Labour (prev Vauxhall, now Vauxhall and Camberwell Green) - but Surrey's outground at Guildford will also (presumably) be a Lib Dem gain from Conservative...
    Kent's is Beckenham which I imagine will be one of the few Tory survivors. Outer south east London's Toriness really has to be experienced to be believed
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,404
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Apols for quoting at length, but I think is really good. From a guy called Nick Tyrone who does a weekly email I subscribe to, 'The Week in Brexitland'. He's on twitter as well. Reflects a lot of my thoughts as to how we got here:

    The result of the EU referendum has long been misunderstood by both sides of the Remain-Leave debate. It was neither some sort of Russian PSYOP project gone wild, nor a rational choice for a better future made by the British electorate. It was a cry for help, a wilfully destructive act by the section of the British electorate who made the difference. They were handed a brick and told not to, under any circumstances, throw it through the store window - and they went ahead and hurled it through as an act of defiance. “Deal with that mess,” was the collective voice of Brexit. “Now maybe you’ll be forced to fix things.” The chaos that consumed parliament in the years following the vote was not against the “will of the people”, but a furtherance of what they wanted to happen when they voted for Brexit. They wanted to disrupt the “natural order” and make the political classes squirm. The electorate succeeded in this goal.

    In a sense, the Tories getting annihilated by the electorate is the 2016 result coming full circle, back to the only place it was ever going to end up - the Conservative civil war that created Brexit eating the mothership. The same impulse that drove people to do something slightly crazy, slightly drastic, stepping into the unknown in 2016 has driven them to do the same again in 2024 in a very different direction. “You think we won’t destroy the Conservative party? Watch us.”

    The warnings about “super majorities” sound remarkably like the “Brexit will cost every household £4,000” scare stories from eight years ago. People aren’t listening. They don’t care. They feel angry and betrayed and they finally have a chance to do something about it, namely destroying the governing party in the most brutal fashion imaginable. The electorate are being given numerous ways to do it, as well. If you feel angry from the right, you can vote Reform and destroy the Tories that way; if you want to make sure they get destroyed, you can vote Labour; if you feel angry from a different angle, there’s the Lib Dems to consider. So many ways of destroying the Conservative party out there to choose from this time round.

    What is humorous to watch is Conservative politicians, about to have their careers ended in many circumstances, who cannot begin to fathom that the same destructive forces which gave us Brexit in 2016 have now turned around and are set to annihilate them as well. The winds of hell they unleashed have blown back and obliterated the Tories. You could almost feel sorry for them, if you really tried to.


    Interesting and a lot of truth in it I think. What he misses is that, for many, the vote was less a cry for help, more an act of desperation. And none of the parties have learnt that. This is not just a problem for the Tories but in the longer term for Labour as well. Business as usual is no longer an option and if they try to make it so they will go the same way as the Tories in 5 or 10 years time.
    Exactly right. Brexit was also a scream of anger about immigration. We all know that - I voted Leave for sovereignty and democracy reasons like you - but I wholly accept that many of my fellow Britons were demanding: LOWER IMMIGRATION

    And what did the Tories do once they “got Brexit done”? They raised inmigration to the highest levels in our history. 2.4 millions in 3 years. Utterly insane and criminally irresponsible and for this and mainly this they deserve to die. You cannot betray voters like this, you absolutely cannot
    Immigration was obviously a factor, but I think it was more general than that. If we imagine a present where there had been zero net migration since Britain left the EU, I don't think the mood in the country would be particularly different. A little less pressure on housing, more of a recruitment crisis in the NHS, overall you'd still have a great frustration with the status quo.
    Could it have been (whisper it) that people just didn't want Britain to be part of the EU?
    There are some of you, obviously.
    But could it be... that you were always in the minority ?
    Not when it counted.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,414

    "The second and third Covid lockdowns were the biggest ever mistake made by a British government in peacetime, Nigel Farage has said."

    The Reform UK leader is speaking to 1,000 people at the Rainton Arena. [In Sunderland]

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/27/general-election-live-sunak-starmer-farage/

    Bigger than Suez? Or Iraq? Or (whisper it) calling the Referendum?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,009
    So today is the day that Sir Ed Davey reminds everyone that the LibDems are the pot-head party.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,043

    TimS said:

    The latest CCHQ attack ad that ends up making Angela and her policies look good.

    https://x.com/Conservatives/status/1806291306064339155

    Possibly the biggest fail of their campaign, these social media ads.

    Is that a Labour Party broadcast. Might as well be.

    What the beret and Poirot Moustache are about defeats me though.
    I though it might have been intended to be Uncle Joe, and they just got it mixed up with another daft idea ?

    Otherwise, WTAF ?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,548

    TimS said:

    The latest CCHQ attack ad that ends up making Angela and her policies look good.

    https://x.com/Conservatives/status/1806291306064339155

    Possibly the biggest fail of their campaign, these social media ads.

    That is just stunningly stupid. Maybe there really is a Labour mole in CCHQ?
    Or the more likely explanation - it is stuffed full of clueless twats.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,404
    Am I the only one already shitting themselves over the exit poll, even though it's a week away?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,119
    What sort of placards are being seen in the internal or boundary areas of newly established Low Traffic Neighbourhoods?

    (Working on perceptions and local politics, ignoring the reality that anybody on an estated built since perhaps 1960 is in one already.)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,619

    Am I the only one already shitting themselves over the exit poll, even though it's a week away?

    Nope.

    I may end up in the poor house.

    I am cursing the moment I ever became addicted to the spreads.
  • LloydBanksLloydBanks Posts: 45

    Lennon said:

    Cookie said:



    Looking up the cricket grounds (including outgrounds) strikes me as a cheerfully pointless endeavour. Fully on board with that. My guess is that the main grounds are largely Lab now and will become possibly solely Lab; but that the outgrounds favour the Tories.

    I'll give you Lancs (Stretford and Urmston) for starters. Think the outgrounds are Aigburth (Liverpool Riverside, I think) and, I think Lytham (which would be Fylde, I guess).
    Where else? Durham (Chester-le-Street) would be Durham North. Notts would be Rushcliffe. Yorkshire I think is Leeds NW, with Scarborough as Scarborough and Whitby.
    Very much looking forward to this...

    Hampshire's Rose Bowl is in Eastleigh rather than either of the Southampton seats - so presumably Lib Dem gain from Conservative?

    The Oval (Surrey) is (and always has been) Labour (prev Vauxhall, now Vauxhall and Camberwell Green) - but Surrey's outground at Guildford will also (presumably) be a Lib Dem gain from Conservative...
    Kent's is Beckenham which I imagine will be one of the few Tory survivors. Outer south east London's Toriness really has to be experienced to be believed
    Kent's out ground, I should say, after Canterbury
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,043

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Apols for quoting at length, but I think is really good. From a guy called Nick Tyrone who does a weekly email I subscribe to, 'The Week in Brexitland'. He's on twitter as well. Reflects a lot of my thoughts as to how we got here:

    The result of the EU referendum has long been misunderstood by both sides of the Remain-Leave debate. It was neither some sort of Russian PSYOP project gone wild, nor a rational choice for a better future made by the British electorate. It was a cry for help, a wilfully destructive act by the section of the British electorate who made the difference. They were handed a brick and told not to, under any circumstances, throw it through the store window - and they went ahead and hurled it through as an act of defiance. “Deal with that mess,” was the collective voice of Brexit. “Now maybe you’ll be forced to fix things.” The chaos that consumed parliament in the years following the vote was not against the “will of the people”, but a furtherance of what they wanted to happen when they voted for Brexit. They wanted to disrupt the “natural order” and make the political classes squirm. The electorate succeeded in this goal.

    In a sense, the Tories getting annihilated by the electorate is the 2016 result coming full circle, back to the only place it was ever going to end up - the Conservative civil war that created Brexit eating the mothership. The same impulse that drove people to do something slightly crazy, slightly drastic, stepping into the unknown in 2016 has driven them to do the same again in 2024 in a very different direction. “You think we won’t destroy the Conservative party? Watch us.”

    The warnings about “super majorities” sound remarkably like the “Brexit will cost every household £4,000” scare stories from eight years ago. People aren’t listening. They don’t care. They feel angry and betrayed and they finally have a chance to do something about it, namely destroying the governing party in the most brutal fashion imaginable. The electorate are being given numerous ways to do it, as well. If you feel angry from the right, you can vote Reform and destroy the Tories that way; if you want to make sure they get destroyed, you can vote Labour; if you feel angry from a different angle, there’s the Lib Dems to consider. So many ways of destroying the Conservative party out there to choose from this time round.

    What is humorous to watch is Conservative politicians, about to have their careers ended in many circumstances, who cannot begin to fathom that the same destructive forces which gave us Brexit in 2016 have now turned around and are set to annihilate them as well. The winds of hell they unleashed have blown back and obliterated the Tories. You could almost feel sorry for them, if you really tried to.


    Interesting and a lot of truth in it I think. What he misses is that, for many, the vote was less a cry for help, more an act of desperation. And none of the parties have learnt that. This is not just a problem for the Tories but in the longer term for Labour as well. Business as usual is no longer an option and if they try to make it so they will go the same way as the Tories in 5 or 10 years time.
    Exactly right. Brexit was also a scream of anger about immigration. We all know that - I voted Leave for sovereignty and democracy reasons like you - but I wholly accept that many of my fellow Britons were demanding: LOWER IMMIGRATION

    And what did the Tories do once they “got Brexit done”? They raised inmigration to the highest levels in our history. 2.4 millions in 3 years. Utterly insane and criminally irresponsible and for this and mainly this they deserve to die. You cannot betray voters like this, you absolutely cannot
    Immigration was obviously a factor, but I think it was more general than that. If we imagine a present where there had been zero net migration since Britain left the EU, I don't think the mood in the country would be particularly different. A little less pressure on housing, more of a recruitment crisis in the NHS, overall you'd still have a great frustration with the status quo.
    Could it have been (whisper it) that people just didn't want Britain to be part of the EU?
    There are some of you, obviously.
    But could it be... that you were always in the minority ?
    Not when it counted.
    Wait until next week.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,619
    Nigelb said:

    I'm sure this a rumour TSE is spreading.
    https://x.com/JAHeale/status/1806238748536922386

    The pedant in me needs to point out that condoms have a lower rate of VAT applied to them.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,548

    Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (24-25 June)

    Lab: 36% (-1 from 19-20 Jun)
    Con: 18% (-1)
    Reform UK: 17% (-1)
    Lib Dem: 15% (+2)
    Green: 8% (+2)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    I wouldn't be overly surprised to find the Greens a (temporary) refuge for quite a number of Tories, who want to protest but could never see themselves voting LibDem, Labour or (God forbid) Reform.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,651
    edited June 27

    Pulpstar said:

    New Yougov just dropped. No love for Labour it seems but things are starting to look REALLY dire for the Tories


    LAB: 36% (-1)
    CON: 18% (-1)
    REF: 17% (-1)
    LDEM: 15% (+2)
    GRN: 8% (+2)

    Baxtered.

    Lab 440.
    Con 56.
    Libdem 82.
    Reform 22.
    Green 4.

    A lot is going to depend on whether the Tory/Reform split is even or not in each constituency or wholesale tactical voting takes place
    I'm going to die laughing if this is where we end up on 5th July.
    Or the majority of Reform voters will switch to Tory. Highly likely.
    Why would they though? They know the election is lost, switching their vote is not going to change that. They presumably like what Reform are selling or they wouldn't say Ref in a poll survey.

    No, the only late switchers the Tories are likely to get are those who have drifted to LD, Labour or Green because they are totally pissed off with the government. Some of those will drift back to try to keep the Tories ahead of Reform.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,119

    TimS said:

    The latest CCHQ attack ad that ends up making Angela and her policies look good.

    https://x.com/Conservatives/status/1806291306064339155

    Possibly the biggest fail of their campaign, these social media ads.

    Jeez. So ending shitty contracts is basically the same as Joe Stalin killing millions?

    No doubt the social media whiz who presumably is someone's nephew or niece did PPE at Oxford. Showing once again how little they learn there.
    It's an awful dog whistle advert for the Tories, which tells use more about them than her.

    But I think Rayner is wrong on this - ending Zero Hour contracts is a Union Baron more-power-for-us demand, not what people on them generally want.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,321

    Am I the only one already shitting themselves over the exit poll, even though it's a week away?

    Nope.

    I may end up in the poor house.

    I am cursing the moment I ever became addicted to the spreads.
    You're worried? Think how young Sandpit is feeling.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,362

    Carnyx said:

    eek said:

    Today's photo is a screenshot from the Post Office Inquiry - I flicked over for 2 seconds and saw this..




    The important thing here is that remember this is a banking system - if what is written in that email doesn't scare you enough to resign immediately nothing will...

    The first para - I can't make sense of it. The writer says 'here are some examples of X' but then says 'we are not suggesting that X has happened'. Eh??
    I think what he is trying to say is that

    1) There are duplicates
    2) These occurred when copying to the audit server
    3) There are not duplicates in the original data. So it's quite alright that there duplicates in the audit data.

    The smell of bullshit from this document is overwhelming.
    I'm trying to understand how that could happen in a sane database and what it means.

    The audit log must presumably say 'a record was created with these values'.

    This log record is duplicated but there's only one corresponding transaction in the main data.

    How in the name of the wee man was there not a unique transaction reference assigned as the very first step in the whole process?
    It can't - that's the whole problem, even in 2010 the Horizon system wasn't fit for purpose...
  • Lennon said:

    Cookie said:



    Looking up the cricket grounds (including outgrounds) strikes me as a cheerfully pointless endeavour. Fully on board with that. My guess is that the main grounds are largely Lab now and will become possibly solely Lab; but that the outgrounds favour the Tories.

    I'll give you Lancs (Stretford and Urmston) for starters. Think the outgrounds are Aigburth (Liverpool Riverside, I think) and, I think Lytham (which would be Fylde, I guess).
    Where else? Durham (Chester-le-Street) would be Durham North. Notts would be Rushcliffe. Yorkshire I think is Leeds NW, with Scarborough as Scarborough and Whitby.
    Very much looking forward to this...

    Hampshire's Rose Bowl is in Eastleigh rather than either of the Southampton seats - so presumably Lib Dem gain from Conservative?

    The Oval (Surrey) is (and always has been) Labour (prev Vauxhall, now Vauxhall and Camberwell Green) - but Surrey's outground at Guildford will also (presumably) be a Lib Dem gain from Conservative...
    Kent's is Beckenham which I imagine will be one of the few Tory survivors. Outer south east London's Toriness really has to be experienced to be believed
    Kent's out ground, I should say, after Canterbury
    And Bromley?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,061

    Brexit party voters voted for that party in the local elections and switched to Tory in the General election irrespective of who they said they would vote for before the GE. Why not do it again?

    Between the two events in 2019, the Cons changed leader from the withdrawn Theresa May to the ebullient Boris Johnson. No such exception this time.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,362
    Pulpstar said:

    TimS said:

    Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (24-25 June)

    Lab: 36% (-1 from 19-20 Jun)
    Con: 18% (-1)
    Reform UK: 17% (-1)
    Lib Dem: 15% (+2)
    Green: 8% (+2)
    SNP: 3% (=)


    https://x.com/yougov/status/1806283514288988386?s=61&t=c6bcp0cjChLfQN5Tc8A_6g

    Even down at 36% that's still a 230 majority. LDs also the OO on that poll, even if CorRef merge...

    Con 56, Lab 440, LD 82, Ref 22, Green 4, SNP 23, PC 4, Others 19
    I'm still scratching my head at the ludicrous Green shares some pollsters persist in publishing. And this one is up two. Something is happening with the Green party. It's odd, they've had virtually no coverage yet there they are.

    LLG is up 3 and RefCon down 2 in that poll. LLG 59, RefCon 35. So despite looking very different from other pollsters on individual parties it's bang on average on a left vs right basis.
    A lot of discussion of the Reform vote and whether it would fold back into Con but not so much about Green folding back into Lab. Since the highest Green vote in a GE is 3.8% I believe (2.7% last time), 8% would seem unlikely.
    Possibly it doesn't ?

    The big picture electoral picture is such a forgone conclusion and Starmer has hardly endeared himself to the furthest left aka Green recently. I don't think it'll be 8% but surely it's primed for a record.
    I don't see why not.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    edited June 27

    Am I the only one already shitting themselves over the exit poll, even though it's a week away?

    +1

    Always
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,119
    What do PBrs think is a possible final vote % for Reform - about where they are, or how much lower?
  • Lennon said:

    Cookie said:



    Looking up the cricket grounds (including outgrounds) strikes me as a cheerfully pointless endeavour. Fully on board with that. My guess is that the main grounds are largely Lab now and will become possibly solely Lab; but that the outgrounds favour the Tories.

    I'll give you Lancs (Stretford and Urmston) for starters. Think the outgrounds are Aigburth (Liverpool Riverside, I think) and, I think Lytham (which would be Fylde, I guess).
    Where else? Durham (Chester-le-Street) would be Durham North. Notts would be Rushcliffe. Yorkshire I think is Leeds NW, with Scarborough as Scarborough and Whitby.
    Very much looking forward to this...

    Hampshire's Rose Bowl is in Eastleigh rather than either of the Southampton seats - so presumably Lib Dem gain from Conservative?

    The Oval (Surrey) is (and always has been) Labour (prev Vauxhall, now Vauxhall and Camberwell Green) - but Surrey's outground at Guildford will also (presumably) be a Lib Dem gain from Conservative...
    Kent's is Beckenham which I imagine will be one of the few Tory survivors. Outer south east London's Toriness really has to be experienced to be believed
    Kent's out ground, I should say, after Canterbury
    And Bromley?
    And chislehurst and Sidcup?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,169
    edited June 27

    Am I the only one already shitting themselves over the exit poll, even though it's a week away?

    Nope.

    I may end up in the poor house.

    I am cursing the moment I ever became addicted to the spreads.
    I've largely not bet, except a 1-7 Wolverhampton West punt this election. I do recall some - Sandpit, Casino Royale and a few others (Was it you) suggesting a buy on the Tories when the spreads opened though. Have you bought the Tories :D ?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    boulay said:

    He’s such a twatty headmaster.

    “Keir Starmer has told England fans there is “too much criticism” of Gareth Southgate’s team after their group stage performances in Euro 2024 – and urged supporters to “get behind them”.

    Speaking on the campaign trail in Staffordshire, he added: “Get them over the line because this is a really important competition.

    “England always do a bit of this at the beginning of competitions ... but it’s a brilliant squad of players, all had great seasons for their respective clubs. Just get behind the team. I want less of the criticism, more of the support

    He's right.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,362

    I'm going to use my one photo of the day to show a sign I saw on my morning run, out in the countryside.



    Slightly more original and (ahem) three-dimensional than the usual graffiti, and the appendage even swayed in the breeze. Ten out of ten for effort.

    Fantastic.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,362

    Confirmation from my eldest that they've been awarded a First Class Degree in English from Sheffield Hallam.

    Proud dad

    Nice one.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,937
    Foxy said:

    kyf_100 said:

    eek said:

    NEW: @JLPartnersPolls @Channel4News focus group of Conservative 2019 voters in Leeds South West and Morley

    💥 Not one Tory 2019 voter we spoke to is even considering voting Conservative on July 4th

    💥 Tories described as "self-centred", "out of touch", "hopeless"

    💥 People described the moments they turned away from the Conservatives: partygate, Covid contracts, the economy, and "the absolute disgrace" Liz Truss

    💥 Sunak's early D-Day exit was singled out as "one of the biggest mistakes a politician has made": seen as "humiliating", "embarrassing", "disgusting"; one voter said they were "fuming"

    💥 Rishi Sunak described as "lost", "out of touch", "false, trying to side with the general public but you just see straight through it", "smug", and a "pathetic toff"

    💥 Reform UK attractive to three of our voters. Nigel Farage described as "misunderstood", "strong", "having good ideas", "great in the jungle"

    💥 Keir Starmer described as "uninspiring", "rambles", "irritating", "corporate", "change", and "wishy washy". But the person who said wishy washy said that is a strength, as we "don't need a Donald Trump running our country"

    💥 Labour was the most popular choice of the vast majority, with almost all planning on voting for them in one week's time

    💥 But everyone said it was a vote against the Tories rather than a vote for Labour. In the words of one voter, "they've not won me, the Tories have just lost me". All said they would be open to going back to the Tories in the future, or voting for any party. This period of mass voter volatility is not going anywhere.

    https://x.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1806239023796498488

    Video https://t.co/qPsJDbyIqp

    My prediction of a one-term Labour government that then also gets flushed down the toilet looking possible then.
    Yep.

    In five years time we will have higher taxes, immigration will still be high, and the economy will still be on life support - or even worse, due to a combination of higher taxes and structural decline.

    Pretty much every election since the GFC has been "this is broke, fix this" and successive governments fail to fix anything.
    At some point people might start to realise that the problems are structural (mostly down to worsening age structure of the population and the ills of consumer capitalism) and not amenable to government action.

    But no, they will still fall for politicians selling snake oil scams like Brexit. Anything other than have to accept that they need to work longer, pay more and get less.
    Work longer, pay more, and get less, will never be an election winning platform though, even if it's the truth. If Labour are TINA'ed into putting that into action next month - which, given the vagueness of their manifesto, they are probably expecting to do - I wouldn't be surprised to see them voted out in 2029 vs the next party that promises work less, pay less, and get more. And so it continues.

    Elections are generally won or lost on the basis of "do you feel better off than you did at the last one?" so on that basis I wouldn't be surprised to see Labour lose 2029. People keep voting for change but change isn't happening. Just, as you say, structural decline.
  • viewcode said:

    Brexit party voters voted for that party in the local elections and switched to Tory in the General election irrespective of who they said they would vote for before the GE. Why not do it again?

    Between the two events in 2019, the Cons changed leader from the withdrawn Theresa May to the ebullient Boris Johnson. No such exception this time.
    Yes. In the Hater DNA you must be two faced and lie. It goes with the territory.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,362
    edited June 27
    Pulpstar said:

    Am I the only one already shitting themselves over the exit poll, even though it's a week away?

    Nope.

    I may end up in the poor house.

    I am cursing the moment I ever became addicted to the spreads.
    I've largely not bet, except a 1-7 Wolverhampton West punt this election. I do recall some - Sandpit, Casino Royale and a few others (Was it you) suggesting a buy on the Tories when the spreads opened though. Have you bought the Tories :D ?
    In this election I still don't know if the Tories will win 20 seats or 160 seats. And that's 90 seats with a +/- 70 seat margin because it's going to be down to how well Farage and co do spoiling the Tory (and to a lesser extent Labour) votes...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,619

    Am I the only one already shitting themselves over the exit poll, even though it's a week away?

    Nope.

    I may end up in the poor house.

    I am cursing the moment I ever became addicted to the spreads.
    You're worried? Think how young Sandpit is feeling.
    It reminds me of 2017, Mike convinced me the first weekend after Mrs May called the election, based on a thread I wrote, that the Tories were a sell at 398.

    I spent the better part of the next two months bricking it then when the exit poll came out I did a happy dance.
This discussion has been closed.