8 days to go and Ipsos brings no good news for the Tories – politicalbetting.com

System · June 26

8 days to go and Ipsos brings no good news for the Tories – politicalbetting.com

?NEW from @IpsosUK: Lab lead at 23/ Cons at joint record lowest share since 1978 ?Labour 42% (-1)Conservative 19% (-4)Reform UK 15% (+6) = highest with IpsosLib Dems 11% (+3)Greens 7% (-2)1402 GB adults by phone 21-24 Jun+/- from 31 May- 4 Junhttps://t.co/oaeX29zwGz

Read the full story here

bigjohnowls · June 26

SKS super Maj nailed on

Cookie · June 26

Pollsters are absolutely all over the place with Reform.

DecrepiterJohnL · June 26

Wagergate has reminded voters how much they despised the government during Partygate, with perhaps some PPE scandal as well. It is the idea that we are run by a bunch of chancers only out for themselves.

bigjohnowls · June 26

Times Radio this morning were suggesting that some analysis of the YouGov MRP poll shows there was a difference of 130K between a super majority and a hung parliament.

A stronger argument for PR would be difficult to find

TheScreamingEagles · June 26

So true, well apart from the pacifists, I'd delete that and replace it with appeasers.

https://x.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1805909534042456302/photo/1

TheScreamingEagles · June 26

bigjohnowls said:
Times Radio this morning were suggesting that some analysis of the YouGov MRP poll shows there was a difference of 130K between a super majority and a hung parliament.

A stronger argument for PR would be difficult to find

Ahem

https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/06/25/when-something-is-both-little-and-large/

kyf_100 · June 26

bigjohnowls said:
SKS super Maj nailed on

Baxtered, today's IPSOS poll gives

Con - 42
Lab - 501
Lib - 57
Ref - 3
Green - 2

Lab Majority 352.

MarqueeMark · June 26

Cookie said:
Pollsters are absolutely all over the place with Reform.

Well, if Reform were surging then falling back post Farage's Ukraine positioning, hard to know where they are in the cycle.

edmundintokyo · June 26

Cookie said:
Pollsters are absolutely all over the place with Reform.

It must be really hard to poll. Grumpy low-trust people who don't like talking to pollsters, and they didn't run last time so you can't weight based on that.

PedestrianRock · June 26

Great post. Quite simply, the fundamentals for the Conservative Party are so much worse than many people might think.

A lot of people think ‘they will inevitably end up on 150-200 seats’ or close to that - but all indicators are so, so much worse for them than at comparable elections where they put up a decent showing on polling day itself.

I still think the Tories finishing 3rd in seats is very, very much in play.

Andy_JS · June 26

Cookie said:
Pollsters are absolutely all over the place with Reform.

Are they? Most of them seem to put the party between 15% and 19%.

bondegezou · June 26

DecrepiterJohnL said:
Wagergate has reminded voters how much they despised the government during Partygate, with perhaps some PPE scandal as well. It is the idea that we are run by a bunch of chancers only out for themselves.

I think there has been a serious failure by the media to decide on and promulgate a -gate name to events. Is it gamblegate? Wagergate? We need clarity!

Cookie · June 26

kyf_100 said:

bigjohnowls said:
SKS super Maj nailed on
Baxtered, today's IPSOS poll gives

Con - 42
Lab - 501
Lib - 57
Ref - 3
Green - 2

Lab Majority 352.

I stand to make my biggest ever gambling win if Labour exceed 500 seats (which is in hundreds, not thousands. But still). So this will do very nicely.

Novo · June 26

Electoral Calculus on IPSOS showing Labour at just over 500 and Tories trailing the Lb Dems. Can’t see how the Tories can possibly get over 100 from where they now are. Many of their supporters have already voted so if the polls are anywhere near accurate, they are doomed towards an abysmal performance.

PedestrianRock · June 26

kyf_100 said:

bigjohnowls said:
SKS super Maj nailed on
Baxtered, today's IPSOS poll gives

Con - 42
Lab - 501
Lib - 57
Ref - 3
Green - 2

Lab Majority 352.

It still seems surprising to me that Labour 500 seats is 13/1 or something on the Exchange.

I think Labour will probably end up at around 450 seats, but we’ve seen 500+ indicated in a lot of polls now. It would be one thing if it was one outlier but there’s been lots.

Obviously Baxter isn’t perfect but it really wouldn’t take much from where we are currently at to get to 500+ on the day.

Feels more like a 5/1 or 6/1 shot to me.

Leon · June 26

Just occurred to me this year might see three remarkable and potentially epochal political events in the west

The total destruction of the British Tories
An absolute parliamentary majority for the hard/far right in France
The re-election of POTUS Trump: and this time he means it

Perhaps we are all being simplistic in our analyses of political evolutions. Its not just a “rightwards surge” but nor is it “a nuanced mixed picture”

It’s not mixed at all. The voters are reaching for evermore extreme solutions and radical punishments. Mostly that’s far/hard right to punish incumbents but absolutely not always: see the UK

But everywhere there is anger and a willingness to think the unthinkable

kamski · June 26

Leon said:
Just occurred to me this year might see three remarkable and potentially epochal political events in the west

The total destruction of the British Tories
An absolute parliamentary majority for the hard/far right in France
The re-election of POTUS Trump: and this time he means it

Perhaps we are all being simplistic in our analyses of political evolutions. Its not just a “rightwards surge” but nor is it “a nuanced mixed picture”

It’s not mixed at all. The voters are reaching for evermore extreme solutions and radical punishments. Mostly that’s far/hard right to punish incumbents but absolutely not always: see the UK

But everywhere there is anger and a willingness to think the unthinkable

Voting Labour after 14 years of Conservative government is hardly thinking the unthinkable.

PedestrianRock · June 26

A question or two on postal votes

IIRC, Postal votes were about 1 in every 5 in 2019 GE.

1) Do we have a rough sense on what it will be this year? Probably higher post COVID?

2) Can we guess roughly how many ballots have already been cast? I have a few older relatives who sent theirs off the day after they received them - I imagine a lot of postal voters do the same?

Interesting to consider that a lot of things like Gamblegate / Putingate might not be in the minds of voters who have already cast their ballots…

ExiledInScotland · June 26

Leon said:
Just occurred to me this year might see three remarkable and potentially epochal political events in the west

The total destruction of the British Tories
An absolute parliamentary majority for the hard/far right in France
The re-election of POTUS Trump: and this time he means it

Perhaps we are all being simplistic in our analyses of political evolutions. Its not just a “rightwards surge” but nor is it “a nuanced mixed picture”

It’s not mixed at all. The voters are reaching for evermore extreme solutions and radical punishments. Mostly that’s far/hard right to punish incumbents but absolutely not always: see the UK

But everywhere there is anger and a willingness to think the unthinkable

Your point that "voters are reaching for evermore extreme solutions and radical punishments" is surely correct. My worry is that, if Labour fail and the socially conservative voters do not like what they see, then a Farage or worse could storm in in 2029.

algarkirk · June 26

bigjohnowls said:
Times Radio this morning were suggesting that some analysis of the YouGov MRP poll shows there was a difference of 130K between a super majority and a hung parliament.

A stronger argument for PR would be difficult to find

This can and should only be done after the election not before. Using very crude figures, let's say a supermajority is Lab 450+, and hung parliament is Lab 320. That's 130 seats difference.

So for the claim to be true there would have to be with either of these results about 130 seats where the difference between the Tory and Lab (being first and second between them) averaged 1000 votes are thereabouts; and all 130 were won by the Tory (for a hung parliament) or Labour (for a supermajority). This won't happen, nor anything like it.

Nunu5 · June 26

Leon said:
Just occurred to me this year might see three remarkable and potentially epochal political events in the west

The total destruction of the British Tories
An absolute parliamentary majority for the hard/far right in France
The re-election of POTUS Trump: and this time he means it

Perhaps we are all being simplistic in our analyses of political evolutions. Its not just a “rightwards surge” but nor is it “a nuanced mixed picture”

It’s not mixed at all. The voters are reaching for evermore extreme solutions and radical punishments. Mostly that’s far/hard right to punish incumbents but absolutely not always: see the UK

But everywhere there is anger and a willingness to think the unthinkable

First and foremost no one ever says I'm voting for x because my father always did anymore

Nigelb · June 26

Leon said:
Just occurred to me this year might see three remarkable and potentially epochal political events in the west

The total destruction of the British Tories
An absolute parliamentary majority for the hard/far right in France
The re-election of POTUS Trump: and this time he means it

Perhaps we are all being simplistic in our analyses of political evolutions. Its not just a “rightwards surge” but nor is it “a nuanced mixed picture”

It’s not mixed at all. The voters are reaching for evermore extreme solutions and radical punishments. Mostly that’s far/hard right to punish incumbents but absolutely not always: see the UK

But everywhere there is anger and a willingness to think the unthinkable

Let us reach for the extreme solution of ... Sir Keir Starmer.

Anabobazina · June 26

Ghedebrav said:
On preparing for the evening, my default setting is BBC for these things. Like poor, poor Rishi we don't have Sky, so I guess my other option will be ITN?

I'll have a PB tab open as well ofc.

ITN is far, far superior to the BBC and has been for years. That BBC now have the hopeless LauraK as 'anchorwoman' can only add to their irrepressible malaise.

Meanwhile, ITN have Ozzy and Ballzy – two of the finest political pundits and a great double act.

DYOR.

Grandcanyon · June 26

Leon said:
Just occurred to me this year might see three remarkable and potentially epochal political events in the west

The total destruction of the British Tories
An absolute parliamentary majority for the hard/far right in France
The re-election of POTUS Trump: and this time he means it

Perhaps we are all being simplistic in our analyses of political evolutions. Its not just a “rightwards surge” but nor is it “a nuanced mixed picture”

It’s not mixed at all. The voters are reaching for evermore extreme solutions and radical punishments. Mostly that’s far/hard right to punish incumbents but absolutely not always: see the UK

But everywhere there is anger and a willingness to think the unthinkable

Whilst living standards stagnate and houses are unaffordable this will continue. The best thing that could happen to this country is a 40% house price crash.

Nigelb · June 26

bondegezou said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:
Wagergate has reminded voters how much they despised the government during Partygate, with perhaps some PPE scandal as well. It is the idea that we are run by a bunch of chancers only out for themselves.
I think there has been a serious failure by the media to decide on and promulgate a -gate name to events. Is it gamblegate? Wagergate? We need clarity!

Insidergate.

anothernick · June 26

PedestrianRock said:
Great post. Quite simply, the fundamentals for the Conservative Party are so much worse than many people might think.

A lot of people think ‘they will inevitably end up on 150-200 seats’ or close to that - but all indicators are so, so much worse for them than at comparable elections where they put up a decent showing on polling day itself.

I still think the Tories finishing 3rd in seats is very, very much in play.

The betting scandal has submerged their "Labour tax" play which is really all they have left. Add a large chunk of tactical voting and you could well be right. And all the evidence does suggest that there will be a large chunk of tactical voting....

stodge · June 26

@TSE - seriously, why do you do this to me?

FPT

Afternoon all

Financing local Government is one of those issues which nobody, if they've got any sense, wants to go anywhere near. The fact we are dealing with a hastily imposed settlement brought in as a result of the overthrow of Margaret Thatcher speaks volumes.

30+ years on and the consequences of that stupidity are clear. We have a banding system which bears little or no resemblance to the value of the properties to which it relates and the main reason for its creation - to allow local authorities to fund themselves without having to rely on central Government largesse - has also failed to be addressed.

In some authorites, up to two thirds of expenditure is on the provision of care for vulnerable adults and children as well on children with Special Education Needs (SEN). SEN referrals have increased exponentially since the end of lockdown but the provision of suitable teaching accommodation and the supply of qualified teachers has not. The funding of transport for SEN children is a particular area of concern with many authorities cutting it for children over sixteen.

The central question is what do you want local councils to do? In theory, adult social care could be taken out of local authority control and run by a national care agency which would ensure adequate levels of residential care, specialist (including dementia) care and domiciliary care across the country based on the maxim the older population should be treated with respect and dignity and the care offer should provide that. At the same time, the agency should be promoting in-family care where possible and acting as a positive help for carers of all ages and types. Caring should be viewed as a vital part of family life and carers should be encouraged as much as possible (employers hsould be given huge tax breaks to employ carers).

How do you fund the rest of local Government? With the pressure off in terms of care, other functions can be looked at - we need local community hubs where a range of services and advice are available and very often just a place for the lonely and the alone to go and meet other people. This needs to be a 24 hour a day, seven day a week service provision - the message being if you're lonely, you don't have to be alone.

How this society deals with the alone and the lonely is reprehensible and a shame to us all. Sport, for example, should be leading on this getting people out and about providing free or discounted admission so those who have no social life can have the opportunity to live a little.

Back to funding? @Sandpit rails against property taxation and the truth is there is no fair form of local Government funding. The truth is those with high value properties are doing very well out of the current system and any changes will disadvantage them (and they will whinge) and benefit the providers of Council Tax software (who won't).

Carnyx · June 26

PedestrianRock said:
A question or two on postal votes

IIRC, Postal votes were about 1 in every 5 in 2019 GE.

1) Do we have a rough sense on what it will be this year? Probably higher post COVID?

2) Can we guess roughly how many ballots have already been cast? I have a few older relatives who sent theirs off the day after they received them - I imagine a lot of postal voters do the same?

Interesting to consider that a lot of things like Gamblegate / Putingate might not be in the minds of voters who have already cast their ballots…

Definitely higher post covid. We got them then and still have them. Lots of other people will, I am sure.

But there were other things in people's minds. Mr Sunak has done well in keeping a steady flow of new stories and issues.

Cookie · June 26

Interesting (because it chimes with my views!) article in the Telegraph:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/06/26/sir-keir-starmer-about-discover-just-how-lucky-he-really-is/

CBBTGRTF: the travails of the economy are somewhat overstated, and Labour will a) have slightly more room to manoeuvre than many think, and b) may also benefit from investment flight from the travails in France and the rest of Europe.

kyf_100 · June 26

PedestrianRock said:

kyf_100 said:

bigjohnowls said:
SKS super Maj nailed on
Baxtered, today's IPSOS poll gives

Con - 42
Lab - 501
Lib - 57
Ref - 3
Green - 2

Lab Majority 352.
It still seems surprising to me that Labour 500 seats is 13/1 or something on the Exchange.

I think Labour will probably end up at around 450 seats, but we’ve seen 500+ indicated in a lot of polls now. It would be one thing if it was one outlier but there’s been lots.

Obviously Baxter isn’t perfect but it really wouldn’t take much from where we are currently at to get to 500+ on the day.

Feels more like a 5/1 or 6/1 shot to me.

Yes, I've kept my £20 at 25/1. It's probably a lucky loser, but it's not worth cashing out for the 16ish quid profit I'd make at current prices.

The bragging rights if it actually comes in on the night are worth far more ;-)

jamesdoyle · June 26

stodge said:
@TSE - seriously, why do you do this to me?

FPT

Afternoon all

Financing local Government is one of those issues which nobody, if they've got any sense, wants to go anywhere near. The fact we are dealing with a hastily imposed settlement brought in as a result of the overthrow of Margaret Thatcher speaks volumes.

30+ years on and the consequences of that stupidity are clear. We have a banding system which bears little or no resemblance to the value of the properties to which it relates and the main reason for its creation - to allow local authorities to fund themselves without having to rely on central Government largesse - has also failed to be addressed.

In some authorites, up to two thirds of expenditure is on the provision of care for vulnerable adults and children as well on children with Special Education Needs (SEN). SEN referrals have increased exponentially since the end of lockdown but the provision of suitable teaching accommodation and the supply of qualified teachers has not. The funding of transport for SEN children is a particular area of concern with many authorities cutting it for children over sixteen.

The central question is what do you want local councils to do? In theory, adult social care could be taken out of local authority control and run by a national care agency which would ensure adequate levels of residential care, specialist (including dementia) care and domiciliary care across the country based on the maxim the older population should be treated with respect and dignity and the care offer should provide that. At the same time, the agency should be promoting in-family care where possible and acting as a positive help for carers of all ages and types. Caring should be viewed as a vital part of family life and carers should be encouraged as much as possible (employers hsould be given huge tax breaks to employ carers).

How do you fund the rest of local Government? With the pressure off in terms of care, other functions can be looked at - we need local community hubs where a range of services and advice are available and very often just a place for the lonely and the alone to go and meet other people. This needs to be a 24 hour a day, seven day a week service provision - the message being if you're lonely, you don't have to be alone.

How this society deals with the alone and the lonely is reprehensible and a shame to us all. Sport, for example, should be leading on this getting people out and about providing free or discounted admission so those who have no social life can have the opportunity to live a little.

Back to funding? @Sandpit rails against property taxation and the truth is there is no fair form of local Government funding. The truth is those with high value properties are doing very well out of the current system and any changes will disadvantage them (and they will whinge) and benefit the providers of Council Tax software (who won't).

This deserves to be a header, so that it doesn't get lost in the flood of comments.

TimS · June 26

Nigelb said:

bondegezou said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:
Wagergate has reminded voters how much they despised the government during Partygate, with perhaps some PPE scandal as well. It is the idea that we are run by a bunch of chancers only out for themselves.
I think there has been a serious failure by the media to decide on and promulgate a -gate name to events. Is it gamblegate? Wagergate? We need clarity!
Insidergate.

I quite like Promulgate.

Cookie · June 26

Andy_JS said:

Cookie said:
Pollsters are absolutely all over the place with Reform.
Are they? Most of them seem to put the party between 15% and 19%.

You may be right; I confess this is basically an impression which seems to alternatively have them surging and fading away.

algarkirk · June 26

bigjohnowls said:
Times Radio this morning were suggesting that some analysis of the YouGov MRP poll shows there was a difference of 130K between a super majority and a hung parliament.

A stronger argument for PR would be difficult to find

No. A GE is 650 local elections, where everyone knows the rules. To come first in enough seats for a massive majority is to show that all the other parties came second or worse in those seats. It cannot happen in some undeserved way because of the number of seats and the need in all the ones you win to do better than all of the rest. This argument is tautological but still true.

bondegezou · June 26

Nigelb said:

bondegezou said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:
Wagergate has reminded voters how much they despised the government during Partygate, with perhaps some PPE scandal as well. It is the idea that we are run by a bunch of chancers only out for themselves.
I think there has been a serious failure by the media to decide on and promulgate a -gate name to events. Is it gamblegate? Wagergate? We need clarity!
Insidergate.

Dategate

anothernick · June 26

Nunu5 said:

Leon said:
Just occurred to me this year might see three remarkable and potentially epochal political events in the west

The total destruction of the British Tories
An absolute parliamentary majority for the hard/far right in France
The re-election of POTUS Trump: and this time he means it

Perhaps we are all being simplistic in our analyses of political evolutions. Its not just a “rightwards surge” but nor is it “a nuanced mixed picture”

It’s not mixed at all. The voters are reaching for evermore extreme solutions and radical punishments. Mostly that’s far/hard right to punish incumbents but absolutely not always: see the UK

But everywhere there is anger and a willingness to think the unthinkable
First and foremost no one ever says I'm voting for x because my father always did anymore

I disagree, it's still quite common for people on the doorstep to tell me "we've always been a Labour family" - maybe less common than 20 years ago but such sentiments still exist.

NickyBreakspear · June 26

PedestrianRock said:
A question or two on postal votes

IIRC, Postal votes were about 1 in every 5 in 2019 GE.

1) Do we have a rough sense on what it will be this year? Probably higher post COVID?

2) Can we guess roughly how many ballots have already been cast? I have a few older relatives who sent theirs off the day after they received them - I imagine a lot of postal voters do the same?

Interesting to consider that a lot of things like Gamblegate / Putingate might not be in the minds of voters who have already cast their ballots…

This spreadsheet from the electoral commission gives constituency information from 2019 including postal votes.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/sites/default/files/2020-05/UKPGE%202019-%20Electoral%20Data-Website.xlsx&ved=2ahUKEwijr4q-mPmGAxWKSEEAHYw7CIsQFnoECBgQAQ&usg=AOvVaw0pXGxmVyghaXYB44vCw9wr

The Sunderland seats had over 40% postal, with the lowest outside Northern Ireland in Birmingham just below 10% (Ruislip is an outlier at 7%).

stodge · June 26

A pulchritude of polls this morning and afternoon.

As far as the Conservatives, we have JL Partners and More In Common who hold out at 25% while the others are all around 20% (plus or minus two). I've considered ahy this might be looking at some of the data - as to who is right, we have the @MarqueeMark sub sample which claims all the "oldies and crumblies" are being ignored by the pollsters but will stay loyal to the Conservatives while you have the pollsters who disagree.

The three Survation polls for GMB are fascinating - in the last three weeks, the Conservatives have dropped five from 23 to 18, Labour has remained unchanged, the LDs are up two, Reform up two and Others (could be pro-Gaza Independents?) up three.

biggles · June 26

stodge said:
@TSE - seriously, why do you do this to me?

FPT

Afternoon all

Financing local Government is one of those issues which nobody, if they've got any sense, wants to go anywhere near. The fact we are dealing with a hastily imposed settlement brought in as a result of the overthrow of Margaret Thatcher speaks volumes.

30+ years on and the consequences of that stupidity are clear. We have a banding system which bears little or no resemblance to the value of the properties to which it relates and the main reason for its creation - to allow local authorities to fund themselves without having to rely on central Government largesse - has also failed to be addressed.

In some authorites, up to two thirds of expenditure is on the provision of care for vulnerable adults and children as well on children with Special Education Needs (SEN). SEN referrals have increased exponentially since the end of lockdown but the provision of suitable teaching accommodation and the supply of qualified teachers has not. The funding of transport for SEN children is a particular area of concern with many authorities cutting it for children over sixteen.

The central question is what do you want local councils to do? In theory, adult social care could be taken out of local authority control and run by a national care agency which would ensure adequate levels of residential care, specialist (including dementia) care and domiciliary care across the country based on the maxim the older population should be treated with respect and dignity and the care offer should provide that. At the same time, the agency should be promoting in-family care where possible and acting as a positive help for carers of all ages and types. Caring should be viewed as a vital part of family life and carers should be encouraged as much as possible (employers hsould be given huge tax breaks to employ carers).

How do you fund the rest of local Government? With the pressure off in terms of care, other functions can be looked at - we need local community hubs where a range of services and advice are available and very often just a place for the lonely and the alone to go and meet other people. This needs to be a 24 hour a day, seven day a week service provision - the message being if you're lonely, you don't have to be alone.

How this society deals with the alone and the lonely is reprehensible and a shame to us all. Sport, for example, should be leading on this getting people out and about providing free or discounted admission so those who have no social life can have the opportunity to live a little.

Back to funding? @Sandpit rails against property taxation and the truth is there is no fair form of local Government funding. The truth is those with high value properties are doing very well out of the current system and any changes will disadvantage them (and they will whinge) and benefit the providers of Council Tax software (who won't).

Easy. Abolish local government. Everything gets run from the centre and everyone gets the same. Massive efficiencies are made.

The cherry on the top is killing off local politics, so that local busybodies never get any power.

stodge · June 26

jamesdoyle said:

stodge said:
@TSE - seriously, why do you do this to me?

FPT

Afternoon all

Financing local Government is one of those issues which nobody, if they've got any sense, wants to go anywhere near. The fact we are dealing with a hastily imposed settlement brought in as a result of the overthrow of Margaret Thatcher speaks volumes.

30+ years on and the consequences of that stupidity are clear. We have a banding system which bears little or no resemblance to the value of the properties to which it relates and the main reason for its creation - to allow local authorities to fund themselves without having to rely on central Government largesse - has also failed to be addressed.

In some authorites, up to two thirds of expenditure is on the provision of care for vulnerable adults and children as well on children with Special Education Needs (SEN). SEN referrals have increased exponentially since the end of lockdown but the provision of suitable teaching accommodation and the supply of qualified teachers has not. The funding of transport for SEN children is a particular area of concern with many authorities cutting it for children over sixteen.

The central question is what do you want local councils to do? In theory, adult social care could be taken out of local authority control and run by a national care agency which would ensure adequate levels of residential care, specialist (including dementia) care and domiciliary care across the country based on the maxim the older population should be treated with respect and dignity and the care offer should provide that. At the same time, the agency should be promoting in-family care where possible and acting as a positive help for carers of all ages and types. Caring should be viewed as a vital part of family life and carers should be encouraged as much as possible (employers hsould be given huge tax breaks to employ carers).

How do you fund the rest of local Government? With the pressure off in terms of care, other functions can be looked at - we need local community hubs where a range of services and advice are available and very often just a place for the lonely and the alone to go and meet other people. This needs to be a 24 hour a day, seven day a week service provision - the message being if you're lonely, you don't have to be alone.

How this society deals with the alone and the lonely is reprehensible and a shame to us all. Sport, for example, should be leading on this getting people out and about providing free or discounted admission so those who have no social life can have the opportunity to live a little.

Back to funding? @Sandpit rails against property taxation and the truth is there is no fair form of local Government funding. The truth is those with high value properties are doing very well out of the current system and any changes will disadvantage them (and they will whinge) and benefit the providers of Council Tax software (who won't).
This deserves to be a header, so that it doesn't get lost in the flood of comments.

Thank you but it would be part one - the second part is about the funding in terms of how it's raised and re-distributed and that's a can of worms you'd only find in the Costco discount aisle.

I haven't forgotten a visit to the bookshop - later in the year, my friend.

Cookie · June 26

Anabobazina said:

Ghedebrav said:
On preparing for the evening, my default setting is BBC for these things. Like poor, poor Rishi we don't have Sky, so I guess my other option will be ITN?

I'll have a PB tab open as well ofc.
ITN is far, far superior to the BBC and has been for years. That BBC now have the hopeless LauraK as 'anchorwoman' can only add to their irrepressible malaise.

Meanwhile, ITN have Ozzy and Ballzy – two of the finest political pundits and a great double act.

DYOR.

I feel sorry for ITV. They have to be so much better than the BBC to overcome people's general inertia/assumption that ITV are johnny-come-lately amateurs/feeling that the BBC 'must' be the place for this sort of thing/people's tellies defaulting to BBC1.
And they are so much better, even factoring into account the bewildered idiocy of Robert Peston. And still the BBC win.

algarkirk · June 26

stodge said:
A pulchritude of polls this morning and afternoon.

As far as the Conservatives, we have JL Partners and More In Common who hold out at 25% while the others are all around 20% (plus or minus two). I've considered ahy this might be looking at some of the data - as to who is right, we have the @MarqueeMark sub sample which claims all the "oldies and crumblies" are being ignored by the pollsters but will stay loyal to the Conservatives while you have the pollsters who disagree.

The three Survation polls for GMB are fascinating - in the last three weeks, the Conservatives have dropped five from 23 to 18, Labour has remained unchanged, the LDs are up two, Reform up two and Others (could be pro-Gaza Independents?) up three.

The collective noun for a flock of polls is red. There are both greater and lesser redpoll days.

kinabalu · June 26

Leon said:
Just occurred to me this year might see three remarkable and potentially epochal political events in the west

The total destruction of the British Tories
An absolute parliamentary majority for the hard/far right in France
The re-election of POTUS Trump: and this time he means it

Perhaps we are all being simplistic in our analyses of political evolutions. Its not just a “rightwards surge” but nor is it “a nuanced mixed picture”

It’s not mixed at all. The voters are reaching for evermore extreme solutions and radical punishments. Mostly that’s far/hard right to punish incumbents but absolutely not always: see the UK

But everywhere there is anger and a willingness to think the unthinkable

Let's hope people chill out a bit then and start thinking inside the box. It's there for a reason.

kinabalu · June 26

Chris Mason is pretty good imo.

Scott_xP · June 26

https://x.com/t0nyyates/status/1805879719109267556

wooliedyed · June 26

stodge said:
A pulchritude of polls this morning and afternoon.

As far as the Conservatives, we have JL Partners and More In Common who hold out at 25% while the others are all around 20% (plus or minus two). I've considered ahy this might be looking at some of the data - as to who is right, we have the @MarqueeMark sub sample which claims all the "oldies and crumblies" are being ignored by the pollsters but will stay loyal to the Conservatives while you have the pollsters who disagree.

The three Survation polls for GMB are fascinating - in the last three weeks, the Conservatives have dropped five from 23 to 18, Labour has remained unchanged, the LDs are up two, Reform up two and Others (could be pro-Gaza Independents?) up three.

On latest polls (non mrp) the ranges are (ignoring Goodwin)
Con 18 to 25
Lab 37 to 43
LD 9 to 13
Ref 13 to 19
Green 5 to 9
SNP 2 to 5

logical_song · June 26

algarkirk said:

bigjohnowls said:
Times Radio this morning were suggesting that some analysis of the YouGov MRP poll shows there was a difference of 130K between a super majority and a hung parliament.

A stronger argument for PR would be difficult to find
No. A GE is 650 local elections, where everyone knows the rules. To come first in enough seats for a massive majority is to show that all the other parties came second or worse in those seats. It cannot happen in some undeserved way because of the number of seats and the need in all the ones you win to do better than all of the rest. This argument is tautological but still true.

An argument for PR is that it allows people to vote FOR the party they want - and if that fails to vote AGAINST the one they really dislike.
This assumes STV in multi-member constituencies, which allows the constituency link to be maintained..

wooliedyed · June 26

wooliedyed said:

stodge said:
A pulchritude of polls this morning and afternoon.

As far as the Conservatives, we have JL Partners and More In Common who hold out at 25% while the others are all around 20% (plus or minus two). I've considered ahy this might be looking at some of the data - as to who is right, we have the @MarqueeMark sub sample which claims all the "oldies and crumblies" are being ignored by the pollsters but will stay loyal to the Conservatives while you have the pollsters who disagree.

The three Survation polls for GMB are fascinating - in the last three weeks, the Conservatives have dropped five from 23 to 18, Labour has remained unchanged, the LDs are up two, Reform up two and Others (could be pro-Gaza Independents?) up three.
On latest polls (non mrp) the ranges are (ignoring Goodwin)
Con 18 to 25
Lab 37 to 43
LD 9 to 13
Ref 13 to 19
Green 5 to 9
SNP 2 to 5

So, mid range fun gives us
Con 21.5
Lab 40
LD 11
Ref 16
Green 7
SNP 3.5

Richardr · June 26

Anabobazina said:

Ghedebrav said:
On preparing for the evening, my default setting is BBC for these things. Like poor, poor Rishi we don't have Sky, so I guess my other option will be ITN?

I'll have a PB tab open as well ofc.
ITN is far, far superior to the BBC and has been for years. That BBC now have the hopeless LauraK as 'anchorwoman' can only add to their irrepressible malaise.

Meanwhile, ITN have Ozzy and Ballzy – two of the finest political pundits and a great double act.

DYOR.

Based on previous elections:

ITV tend to announce many of the results faster - they don't wait for the declarations - albeit this time around there may be less in it where there are fewer safe seats. The other side of that though is that they show fewer declarations in favour of studio chat.

BBC (and Sky) have the results as they are declared and as a result tend to show a lot more declarations live, and have the numbers in line with each other.

Roger · June 26

Nigelb said:

Leon said:
Just occurred to me this year might see three remarkable and potentially epochal political events in the west

The total destruction of the British Tories
An absolute parliamentary majority for the hard/far right in France
The re-election of POTUS Trump: and this time he means it

Perhaps we are all being simplistic in our analyses of political evolutions. Its not just a “rightwards surge” but nor is it “a nuanced mixed picture”

It’s not mixed at all. The voters are reaching for evermore extreme solutions and radical punishments. Mostly that’s far/hard right to punish incumbents but absolutely not always: see the UK

But everywhere there is anger and a willingness to think the unthinkable
Let us reach for the extreme solution of ... Sir Keir Starmer.

Seems to be a day for preposterous hypotheses followed by an outlandish attempt to show that it flies.

Cookie · June 26

kinabalu said:

Leon said:
Just occurred to me this year might see three remarkable and potentially epochal political events in the west

The total destruction of the British Tories
An absolute parliamentary majority for the hard/far right in France
The re-election of POTUS Trump: and this time he means it

Perhaps we are all being simplistic in our analyses of political evolutions. Its not just a “rightwards surge” but nor is it “a nuanced mixed picture”

It’s not mixed at all. The voters are reaching for evermore extreme solutions and radical punishments. Mostly that’s far/hard right to punish incumbents but absolutely not always: see the UK

But everywhere there is anger and a willingness to think the unthinkable
Let's hope people chill out a bit then and start thinking inside the box. It's there for a reason.

Chuckle.

But if we are all to think inside the box, the box really does need to be rather bigger.

LostPassword · June 26

If you trust the polls then there is value buying Labour and selling the Tories on the spreads.

But I don't trust the polls. Neither do you. Neither do those punting on the spreads.

wooliedyed · June 26

https://x.com/WorkersPartyGB/status/1805932802472325439?s=19
Selective data klaxon!

Grandcanyon · June 26

kinabalu said:

Leon said:
Just occurred to me this year might see three remarkable and potentially epochal political events in the west

The total destruction of the British Tories
An absolute parliamentary majority for the hard/far right in France
The re-election of POTUS Trump: and this time he means it

Perhaps we are all being simplistic in our analyses of political evolutions. Its not just a “rightwards surge” but nor is it “a nuanced mixed picture”

It’s not mixed at all. The voters are reaching for evermore extreme solutions and radical punishments. Mostly that’s far/hard right to punish incumbents but absolutely not always: see the UK

But everywhere there is anger and a willingness to think the unthinkable
Let's hope people chill out a bit then and start thinking inside the box. It's there for a reason.

Oh sure the same failed policies as before. No disrespect but living in Hampstead doesnt imply you have any real thirst for a change in the status quo outside woke virtue signalling.

Nigelb · June 26

Regarding the discussion of battery powered trains on the last thread, these are (for now) the type of battery most likely to be used:
https://www.global.toshiba/ww/products-solutions/battery/scib.html

They are lower energy density than auto batteries, but much faster charging at high voltages (80% in around ten minutes), have much longer life cycles - and are safer.
Also used in battery powered buses.

Car battery technology is catching up in both speed of recharging and expected usable lifetime, though. And once solid state batteries (which are more resistant to thermal runaway, and therefore much safer) become a commercial proposition, they will take over.

kinabalu · June 26

Grandcanyon said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:
Just occurred to me this year might see three remarkable and potentially epochal political events in the west

The total destruction of the British Tories
An absolute parliamentary majority for the hard/far right in France
The re-election of POTUS Trump: and this time he means it

Perhaps we are all being simplistic in our analyses of political evolutions. Its not just a “rightwards surge” but nor is it “a nuanced mixed picture”

It’s not mixed at all. The voters are reaching for evermore extreme solutions and radical punishments. Mostly that’s far/hard right to punish incumbents but absolutely not always: see the UK

But everywhere there is anger and a willingness to think the unthinkable
Let's hope people chill out a bit then and start thinking inside the box. It's there for a reason.
Oh sure the same failed policies as before. No disrespect but living in Hampstead doesnt imply you have any real thirst for a change in the status quo outside woke virtue signalling.

If I'm into virtue signalling how come my Labour sticker is small and on an upstairs window?

TheScreamingEagles · June 26

Up to 15 Tories ‘being investigated by Gambling Commission over betting scandal’

Controversy has now cut through more with public than anger over PM’s D-Day departure, poll shows

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/26/election-betting-scandal-15-conservatives-investigation/

Theuniondivvie · June 26

wooliedyed said:
https://x.com/WorkersPartyGB/status/1805932802472325439?s=19
Selective data klaxon!

Is campaign canvassing essentially 'what I'm hearing on the doorsteps'?

LostPassword · June 26

I've posted my postal vote. Last collection in 70 minutes from the local post box.

I love democracy!

Grandcanyon · June 26

LostPassword said:
If you trust the polls then there is value buying Labour and selling the Tories on the spreads.

But I don't trust the polls. Neither do you. Neither do those punting on the spreads.

No skybet seat bands has 50 to 100 seats evens favourite.

DecrepiterJohnL · June 26

Richardr said:

Anabobazina said:

Ghedebrav said:
On preparing for the evening, my default setting is BBC for these things. Like poor, poor Rishi we don't have Sky, so I guess my other option will be ITN?

I'll have a PB tab open as well ofc.
ITN is far, far superior to the BBC and has been for years. That BBC now have the hopeless LauraK as 'anchorwoman' can only add to their irrepressible malaise.

Meanwhile, ITN have Ozzy and Ballzy – two of the finest political pundits and a great double act.

DYOR.
Based on previous elections:

ITV tend to announce many of the results faster - they don't wait for the declarations - albeit this time around there may be less in it where there are fewer safe seats. The other side of that though is that they show fewer declarations in favour of studio chat.

BBC (and Sky) have the results as they are declared and as a result tend to show a lot more declarations live, and have the numbers in line with each other.

I think in the past ITN has had to backtrack on the odd estimated result. In the overall scheme of things, especially if there is a landslide, but for constituency betting it is unhelpful.

Leon · June 26

Nigelb said:

Leon said:
Just occurred to me this year might see three remarkable and potentially epochal political events in the west

The total destruction of the British Tories
An absolute parliamentary majority for the hard/far right in France
The re-election of POTUS Trump: and this time he means it

Perhaps we are all being simplistic in our analyses of political evolutions. Its not just a “rightwards surge” but nor is it “a nuanced mixed picture”

It’s not mixed at all. The voters are reaching for evermore extreme solutions and radical punishments. Mostly that’s far/hard right to punish incumbents but absolutely not always: see the UK

But everywhere there is anger and a willingness to think the unthinkable
Let us reach for the extreme solution of ... Sir Keir Starmer.

I know you’re not the sharpest but reducing the Tories to 7 seats is quite the radical act

Pulpstar · June 26

I'll use my picture of the day to show how all the MRPs show the projected makeup of the House of Commons

Eabhal · June 26

wooliedyed said:
https://x.com/WorkersPartyGB/status/1805932802472325439?s=19
Selective data klaxon!

Too many klaxons. We're going to end up with inflation. Fog horns, vuvuzelas, bagpipes, Tuba in B flat major etc etc

BONG must be reserved to 10pm, election day.

Grandcanyon · June 26

kinabalu said:

Grandcanyon said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:
Just occurred to me this year might see three remarkable and potentially epochal political events in the west

The total destruction of the British Tories
An absolute parliamentary majority for the hard/far right in France
The re-election of POTUS Trump: and this time he means it

Perhaps we are all being simplistic in our analyses of political evolutions. Its not just a “rightwards surge” but nor is it “a nuanced mixed picture”

It’s not mixed at all. The voters are reaching for evermore extreme solutions and radical punishments. Mostly that’s far/hard right to punish incumbents but absolutely not always: see the UK

But everywhere there is anger and a willingness to think the unthinkable
Let's hope people chill out a bit then and start thinking inside the box. It's there for a reason.
Oh sure the same failed policies as before. No disrespect but living in Hampstead doesnt imply you have any real thirst for a change in the status quo outside woke virtue signalling.
If I'm into virtue signalling how come my Labour sticker is small and on an upstairs window?

Maybe your next door neighbours are greens.

Ghedebrav · June 26

kinabalu said:

Grandcanyon said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:
Just occurred to me this year might see three remarkable and potentially epochal political events in the west

The total destruction of the British Tories
An absolute parliamentary majority for the hard/far right in France
The re-election of POTUS Trump: and this time he means it

Perhaps we are all being simplistic in our analyses of political evolutions. Its not just a “rightwards surge” but nor is it “a nuanced mixed picture”

It’s not mixed at all. The voters are reaching for evermore extreme solutions and radical punishments. Mostly that’s far/hard right to punish incumbents but absolutely not always: see the UK

But everywhere there is anger and a willingness to think the unthinkable
Let's hope people chill out a bit then and start thinking inside the box. It's there for a reason.
Oh sure the same failed policies as before. No disrespect but living in Hampstead doesnt imply you have any real thirst for a change in the status quo outside woke virtue signalling.
If I'm into virtue signalling how come my Labour sticker is small and on an upstairs window?

When people throw virtue signalling as an accusation, 9 times out of 10 they’re just showing that they’re incapable of countenancing altruism.

Nigelb · June 26

Leon said:

Nigelb said:

Leon said:
Just occurred to me this year might see three remarkable and potentially epochal political events in the west

The total destruction of the British Tories
An absolute parliamentary majority for the hard/far right in France
The re-election of POTUS Trump: and this time he means it

Perhaps we are all being simplistic in our analyses of political evolutions. Its not just a “rightwards surge” but nor is it “a nuanced mixed picture”

It’s not mixed at all. The voters are reaching for evermore extreme solutions and radical punishments. Mostly that’s far/hard right to punish incumbents but absolutely not always: see the UK

But everywhere there is anger and a willingness to think the unthinkable
Let us reach for the extreme solution of ... Sir Keir Starmer.
I know you’re not the sharpest but reducing the Tories to 7 seats is quite the radical act

Not voting Tory - which is what you're talking about - isn't a radical act at all.
(Unless you're voting RefUK instead.)

It's a fairly extreme consequence of FPTP, but has little or nothing to do with any sort of thinking the unthinkable type radicalism.

I thought you were sharper than that. Evidently not.

viewcode · June 26

kinabalu said:

Grandcanyon said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:
Just occurred to me this year might see three remarkable and potentially epochal political events in the west

The total destruction of the British Tories
An absolute parliamentary majority for the hard/far right in France
The re-election of POTUS Trump: and this time he means it

Perhaps we are all being simplistic in our analyses of political evolutions. Its not just a “rightwards surge” but nor is it “a nuanced mixed picture”

It’s not mixed at all. The voters are reaching for evermore extreme solutions and radical punishments. Mostly that’s far/hard right to punish incumbents but absolutely not always: see the UK

But everywhere there is anger and a willingness to think the unthinkable
Let's hope people chill out a bit then and start thinking inside the box. It's there for a reason.
Oh sure the same failed policies as before. No disrespect but living in Hampstead doesnt imply you have any real thirst for a change in the status quo outside woke virtue signalling.
If I'm into virtue signalling how come my Labour sticker is small and on an upstairs window?

Sticker envy

Ghedebrav · June 26

wooliedyed said:

wooliedyed said:

stodge said:
A pulchritude of polls this morning and afternoon.

As far as the Conservatives, we have JL Partners and More In Common who hold out at 25% while the others are all around 20% (plus or minus two). I've considered ahy this might be looking at some of the data - as to who is right, we have the @MarqueeMark sub sample which claims all the "oldies and crumblies" are being ignored by the pollsters but will stay loyal to the Conservatives while you have the pollsters who disagree.

The three Survation polls for GMB are fascinating - in the last three weeks, the Conservatives have dropped five from 23 to 18, Labour has remained unchanged, the LDs are up two, Reform up two and Others (could be pro-Gaza Independents?) up three.
On latest polls (non mrp) the ranges are (ignoring Goodwin)
Con 18 to 25
Lab 37 to 43
LD 9 to 13
Ref 13 to 19
Green 5 to 9
SNP 2 to 5
So, mid range fun gives us
Con 21.5
Lab 40
LD 11
Ref 16
Green 7
SNP 3.5

Fed into ElCalc this gives:

Con 86
Lab 457
LD 56
Ref 4
Grn 2
SNP 21

Leon · June 26

For reasons which are too fantastically obscure and complex to explain, I now have to get an emergency ferry back to the Quiberon peninsula so I can be at Jean Marie le Pen’s police station before 5pm

TheScreamingEagles · June 26

The Ann Summers Theatre of Dreams

EXCLUSIVE

🚨 Manchester United considering selling naming rights to Old Trafford as they seek to drive up revenues as part of Sir Jim Ratcliffe’s plans to refurbish Old Trafford or build a new stadium. Ticket price increases also under consideration.

https://x.com/AdamCrafton_/status/1805932992675643541

Nigelb · June 26

Farage says what he thinks of his prospective constituents.

#Clacton candidate hustings CANCELLED … because every candidate agreed to take part, with the exception of #Farage, who is happy to stand in front of a chosen Reform audience … but terrified of facing the actual residents of #Clacton.
https://x.com/jdpoc/status/1805674424714096782

Ghedebrav · June 26

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Richardr said:

Anabobazina said:

Ghedebrav said:
On preparing for the evening, my default setting is BBC for these things. Like poor, poor Rishi we don't have Sky, so I guess my other option will be ITN?

I'll have a PB tab open as well ofc.
ITN is far, far superior to the BBC and has been for years. That BBC now have the hopeless LauraK as 'anchorwoman' can only add to their irrepressible malaise.

Meanwhile, ITN have Ozzy and Ballzy – two of the finest political pundits and a great double act.

DYOR.
Based on previous elections:

ITV tend to announce many of the results faster - they don't wait for the declarations - albeit this time around there may be less in it where there are fewer safe seats. The other side of that though is that they show fewer declarations in favour of studio chat.

BBC (and Sky) have the results as they are declared and as a result tend to show a lot more declarations live, and have the numbers in line with each other.
I think in the past ITN has had to backtrack on the odd estimated result. In the overall scheme of things, especially if there is a landslide, but for constituency betting it is unhelpful.

I’ll probably flick between the two and settle on who is least irritating. No adverts is always a big draw for BBC though.

twistedfirestopper3 · June 26

TheScreamingEagles said:
The Ann Summers Theatre of Dreams

EXCLUSIVE

🚨 Manchester United considering selling naming rights to Old Trafford as they seek to drive up revenues as part of Sir Jim Ratcliffe’s plans to refurbish Old Trafford or build a new stadium. Ticket price increases also under consideration.

https://x.com/AdamCrafton_/status/1805932992675643541

If I was a gazzilionaire, I'd buy the rights and call it Anfield.

Peter_the_Punter · June 26

@TSE

Nice header, but why do you/we focus on the bad polls for the Tories?

I accept that Ipsos and Survation have some pedigree, but Varian, JLP and MiC are all solid enough and members of the BPC. I appreciate that even they are not so great for the Blue team, but they do at least feed a little life into what otherwise would be the dried out corpse of the outgoing government.

eek · June 26

TheScreamingEagles said:
The Ann Summers Theatre of Dreams

EXCLUSIVE

🚨 Manchester United considering selling naming rights to Old Trafford as they seek to drive up revenues as part of Sir Jim Ratcliffe’s plans to refurbish Old Trafford or build a new stadium. Ticket price increases also under consideration.

https://x.com/AdamCrafton_/status/1805932992675643541

Even Mike Ashley gave up on the idea of renaming St James Park and it would be pointless because everyone would still call it Old Trafford.

Now if he ends up building a new stadium he can call that whatever he wants but the ancient crumbling mess that is Old Trafford will always be Old Trafford.

Leon · June 26

Nigelb said:

Leon said:

Nigelb said:

Leon said:
Just occurred to me this year might see three remarkable and potentially epochal political events in the west

The total destruction of the British Tories
An absolute parliamentary majority for the hard/far right in France
The re-election of POTUS Trump: and this time he means it

Perhaps we are all being simplistic in our analyses of political evolutions. Its not just a “rightwards surge” but nor is it “a nuanced mixed picture”

It’s not mixed at all. The voters are reaching for evermore extreme solutions and radical punishments. Mostly that’s far/hard right to punish incumbents but absolutely not always: see the UK

But everywhere there is anger and a willingness to think the unthinkable
Let us reach for the extreme solution of ... Sir Keir Starmer.
I know you’re not the sharpest but reducing the Tories to 7 seats is quite the radical act
Not voting Tory - which is what you're talking about - isn't a radical act at all.
(Unless you're voting RefUK instead.)

It's a fairly extreme consequence of FPTP, but has little or nothing to do with any sort of thinking the unthinkable type radicalism.

I thought you were sharper than that. Evidently not.

In my original comment I said “voters are reach for extreme solutions AND RADICAL PUNISHMENTS”

Thus, Britain. It doesn’t get more radical in terms of electoral punishments than everyone under 70 refusing to vote for you so your 200 year old party actually goes extinct even though it won a large majority in the last election

It is absolutely unprecedented. The hatred and scorn is off the dial. The polls are pointing to an extreme solution

Nigelb · June 26

North Korea's Central Military Commission announced that North Korea would join forces with the Russian military. And as part of the North Korea and Russia military alliance, the North Korean Army engineer unit would be dispatched to Donetsk, Ukraine, which remains occupied by Russia. It will be dispatched as early as next month...
https://x.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1805871124388983109

Eabhal · June 26

Ghedebrav said:

kinabalu said:

Grandcanyon said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:
Just occurred to me this year might see three remarkable and potentially epochal political events in the west

The total destruction of the British Tories
An absolute parliamentary majority for the hard/far right in France
The re-election of POTUS Trump: and this time he means it

Perhaps we are all being simplistic in our analyses of political evolutions. Its not just a “rightwards surge” but nor is it “a nuanced mixed picture”

It’s not mixed at all. The voters are reaching for evermore extreme solutions and radical punishments. Mostly that’s far/hard right to punish incumbents but absolutely not always: see the UK

But everywhere there is anger and a willingness to think the unthinkable
Let's hope people chill out a bit then and start thinking inside the box. It's there for a reason.
Oh sure the same failed policies as before. No disrespect but living in Hampstead doesnt imply you have any real thirst for a change in the status quo outside woke virtue signalling.
If I'm into virtue signalling how come my Labour sticker is small and on an upstairs window?
When people throw virtue signalling as an accusation, 9 times out of 10 they’re just showing that they’re incapable of countenancing altruism.

Is tipping virtue signalling?

This question cost my office an hour of intense discussion. Lots of dredged up economic theory. How about buying a big issue?

Clutch_Brompton · June 26

I would really like to know if Ipsos prompted for Reform this time. That would explain the big movement from Con to Ref. Otherwise it seems a little odd - and on its own bar PeoplePolling. If not then it really does show the Reform brand has cut through. It sets a vote out there that the Cons will not reach unless they make Nigel their leader. A decision which would not end well.

The Survaton poll is diabolical for the Cons. These are not cowboys - they have a very good track record. If this isn't an outlier corrected next time out then we need to consider how Sir Ed will perform at PMQs

wooliedyed · June 26

Depending on whether they are running special polls early next week, we may start getting pollster 'final calls' from tomorrow evening- Techne tomorrow night, WeThink Friday, Opinium Saturday? (I think they'll run one to drop Weds eve)

Leon · June 26

Nigelb said:
Farage says what he thinks of his prospective constituents.

#Clacton candidate hustings CANCELLED … because every candidate agreed to take part, with the exception of #Farage, who is happy to stand in front of a chosen Reform audience … but terrified of facing the actual residents of #Clacton.
https://x.com/jdpoc/status/1805674424714096782

A blatant lie if you follow the tweets afterwards

Peter_the_Punter · June 26

Grandcanyon said:

LostPassword said:
If you trust the polls then there is value buying Labour and selling the Tories on the spreads.

But I don't trust the polls. Neither do you. Neither do those punting on the spreads.
No skybet seat bands has 50 to 100 seats evens favourite.

The seat bands tend to be lower than the spreads because of the high risk/reward ratio of the latter.

Andy_JS · June 26

FPT

noneoftheabove said:

Andy_JS said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
NEW: Sir Ed Davey says he placed a bet on the outcome of the 2010 General Election, on the number of seats the Lib Dems would win. He says he got it wrong and didn’t win anything.

The question is whether that is a legitimate bet to make. He didn’t know the answer.

V different from knowing the answer and placing a bet.

But then there is an open Q about whether politicians, often with access to privileged information, should be making political bets at all

https://x.com/mattuthompson/status/1805900651118964948
This is all getting a bit puritanical now imo. It can only be a matter of time before someone calls for politicians to be banned from betting on politics altogether.
Footballers can't bet on football, jockeys can't bet on racing, so its hardly a preposterous suggestion.

I'd say if you are at, or expect to be at, cabinet level or above you shouldn't be betting on politics at all. At MP level or above, you shouldn't be betting on your side to do badly. If you know the result you shouldn't be betting. Beyond that I couldn't care much but if it was banned for MPs to bet on politics thats not ridiculous.

I wouldn't have any of those restrictions.

jamesdoyle · June 26

Nigelb said:
Farage says what he thinks of his prospective constituents.

#Clacton candidate hustings CANCELLED … because every candidate agreed to take part, with the exception of #Farage, who is happy to stand in front of a chosen Reform audience … but terrified of facing the actual residents of #Clacton.
https://x.com/jdpoc/status/1805674424714096782

Hmm. You don't have to cancel a hustings because not every candidate attends. As long as you've invited them you can just announce that X has refused to attend.

Anabobazina · June 26

Cookie said:

Anabobazina said:

Ghedebrav said:
On preparing for the evening, my default setting is BBC for these things. Like poor, poor Rishi we don't have Sky, so I guess my other option will be ITN?

I'll have a PB tab open as well ofc.
ITN is far, far superior to the BBC and has been for years. That BBC now have the hopeless LauraK as 'anchorwoman' can only add to their irrepressible malaise.

Meanwhile, ITN have Ozzy and Ballzy – two of the finest political pundits and a great double act.

DYOR.
I feel sorry for ITV. They have to be so much better than the BBC to overcome people's general inertia/assumption that ITV are johnny-come-lately amateurs/feeling that the BBC 'must' be the place for this sort of thing/people's tellies defaulting to BBC1.
And they are so much better, even factoring into account the bewildered idiocy of Robert Peston. And still the BBC win.

This is all so true. I find it baffling however that anyone could watch the inane ramblings of the unbearable walking press release LauraK and not conclude that the state broadcaster has fallen a long way since the days of John Cole and Professor Tony King.

Grandcanyon · June 26

Eabhal said:

Ghedebrav said:

kinabalu said:

Grandcanyon said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:
Just occurred to me this year might see three remarkable and potentially epochal political events in the west

The total destruction of the British Tories
An absolute parliamentary majority for the hard/far right in France
The re-election of POTUS Trump: and this time he means it

Perhaps we are all being simplistic in our analyses of political evolutions. Its not just a “rightwards surge” but nor is it “a nuanced mixed picture”

It’s not mixed at all. The voters are reaching for evermore extreme solutions and radical punishments. Mostly that’s far/hard right to punish incumbents but absolutely not always: see the UK

But everywhere there is anger and a willingness to think the unthinkable
Let's hope people chill out a bit then and start thinking inside the box. It's there for a reason.
Oh sure the same failed policies as before. No disrespect but living in Hampstead doesnt imply you have any real thirst for a change in the status quo outside woke virtue signalling.
If I'm into virtue signalling how come my Labour sticker is small and on an upstairs window?
When people throw virtue signalling as an accusation, 9 times out of 10 they’re just showing that they’re incapable of countenancing altruism.
Is tipping virtue signalling?

This question cost my office an hour of intense discussion. Lots of dredged up economic theory. How about buying a big issue?

No private acts of goodness arent virtue signalling. Virtue signalling is like when you proudly declare yourself as an anti racist for example to all and sundry. Trying to show you are a good person at no personal cost.

wooliedyed · June 26

Focaldata will be doing a final MRP update at 2-3PM Monday theyve anounced, they seemed to think the recent movement might impact figures

Andy_Cooke · June 26

wooliedyed said:

wooliedyed said:

stodge said:
A pulchritude of polls this morning and afternoon.

As far as the Conservatives, we have JL Partners and More In Common who hold out at 25% while the others are all around 20% (plus or minus two). I've considered ahy this might be looking at some of the data - as to who is right, we have the @MarqueeMark sub sample which claims all the "oldies and crumblies" are being ignored by the pollsters but will stay loyal to the Conservatives while you have the pollsters who disagree.

The three Survation polls for GMB are fascinating - in the last three weeks, the Conservatives have dropped five from 23 to 18, Labour has remained unchanged, the LDs are up two, Reform up two and Others (could be pro-Gaza Independents?) up three.
On latest polls (non mrp) the ranges are (ignoring Goodwin)
Con 18 to 25
Lab 37 to 43
LD 9 to 13
Ref 13 to 19
Green 5 to 9
SNP 2 to 5
So, mid range fun gives us
Con 21.5
Lab 40
LD 11
Ref 16
Green 7
SNP 3.5

So Con -23.2 from their GB score last time
Lab +7.5
LD -0.8
Ref +13.9 from Brexit Party GB score
Green +4.3

Con-Lab swing of 15.1%
Con-LD swing of 11.2%
Con-Ref swing of 18.5%
Con-Grn swing of 13.7%

Ouch

Anabobazina · June 26

Eabhal said:

wooliedyed said:
https://x.com/WorkersPartyGB/status/1805932802472325439?s=19
Selective data klaxon!
Too many klaxons. We're going to end up with inflation. Fog horns, vuvuzelas, bagpipes, Tuba in B flat major etc etc

BONG must be reserved to 10pm, election day.

There were strident calls from some quarters for a GB NEWS VIEWERS POLL KLAXON the other day. @LostPassword knows all about that.

TheScreamingEagles · June 26

Peter_the_Punter said:
@TSE

Nice header, but why do you/we focus on the bad polls for the Tories?

I accept that Ipsos and Survation have some pedigree, but Varian, JLP and MiC are all solid enough and members of the BPC. I appreciate that even they are not so great for the Blue team, but they do at least feed a little life into what otherwise would be the dried out corpse of the outgoing government.

I always try and focus on the Ipsos phone polls because of their 50 year pedigree and the fact their leader/party satisfaction ratings are very good pointers.

kinabalu · June 26

Cookie said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:
Just occurred to me this year might see three remarkable and potentially epochal political events in the west

The total destruction of the British Tories
An absolute parliamentary majority for the hard/far right in France
The re-election of POTUS Trump: and this time he means it

Perhaps we are all being simplistic in our analyses of political evolutions. Its not just a “rightwards surge” but nor is it “a nuanced mixed picture”

It’s not mixed at all. The voters are reaching for evermore extreme solutions and radical punishments. Mostly that’s far/hard right to punish incumbents but absolutely not always: see the UK

But everywhere there is anger and a willingness to think the unthinkable
Let's hope people chill out a bit then and start thinking inside the box. It's there for a reason.
Chuckle.

But if we are all to think inside the box, the box really does need to be rather bigger.

Fair comment. I'd be open to a slightly bigger Box. But not so big as to let simplistic nonsense or poisonous prejudice in.

NB: I wonder how the Overton Window relates to the Box? Is that how you get in or out before starting your thinking?

Pulpstar · June 26

wooliedyed said:
Focaldata will be doing a final MRP update at 2-3PM Monday theyve anounced, they seemed to think the recent movement might impact figures

Focaldata's current MRP I work out to be (Vote % and seats)
23.50% (113) Con
41.44% (451) Lab
11.41% (50) Lib Dem
5.15% (1) Green
15.49% (0) Reform
0.39% Plaid
2.61% (16 between SNP and Plaid)

IanB2 · June 26

Cookie said:
Pollsters are absolutely all over the place with Reform.

Presumably because so much polling is now done online, and the tinfoil fruitcakes have lots of people living their lives on the internet

stodge · June 26

Peter_the_Punter said:
@TSE

Nice header, but why do you/we focus on the bad polls for the Tories?

I accept that Ipsos and Survation have some pedigree, but Varian, JLP and MiC are all solid enough and members of the BPC. I appreciate that even they are not so great for the Blue team, but they do at least feed a little life into what otherwise would be the dried out corpse of the outgoing government.

The question is why are we seeing such a wide divergence (the gap between 18% and 25% is vast in statistical terms). Is it methodology, sampling, weighting, re-allocation of Don't Knows?

I pointed to a huge discrepency in the over 65 vote shares between More In Common (40% for the Conservatives) and R&W (25%).

JL Partners has 43% Conservative share among the over 65s which explains its higher Conservative VI.

Nigelb · June 26

Leon said:

Nigelb said:

Leon said:

Nigelb said:

Leon said:
Just occurred to me this year might see three remarkable and potentially epochal political events in the west

The total destruction of the British Tories
An absolute parliamentary majority for the hard/far right in France
The re-election of POTUS Trump: and this time he means it

Perhaps we are all being simplistic in our analyses of political evolutions. Its not just a “rightwards surge” but nor is it “a nuanced mixed picture”

It’s not mixed at all. The voters are reaching for evermore extreme solutions and radical punishments. Mostly that’s far/hard right to punish incumbents but absolutely not always: see the UK

But everywhere there is anger and a willingness to think the unthinkable
Let us reach for the extreme solution of ... Sir Keir Starmer.
I know you’re not the sharpest but reducing the Tories to 7 seats is quite the radical act
Not voting Tory - which is what you're talking about - isn't a radical act at all.
(Unless you're voting RefUK instead.)

It's a fairly extreme consequence of FPTP, but has little or nothing to do with any sort of thinking the unthinkable type radicalism.

I thought you were sharper than that. Evidently not.
In my original comment I said “voters are reach for extreme solutions AND RADICAL PUNISHMENTS”

Thus, Britain. It doesn’t get more radical in terms of electoral punishments than everyone under 70 refusing to vote for you so your 200 year old party actually goes extinct even though it won a large majority in the last election

It is absolutely unprecedented. The hatred and scorn is off the dial. The polls are pointing to an extreme solution

Again, not voting for a party isn't much of a radical punishment; Labour look set to get a vote in the low 40% range, which isn't particularly extreme.

The only bit you might legitimately describe as 'radical' punishment is on the part those who decide to vote RefUK - and that's probably less than 20% of the electorate.

And is hatred and scorn off the scale ? Scorn levels are considerable, I'll grant you that. I haven't come across all that much hate.

Otherwise it's just an exhausted party getting shafted by FPTP. And since they've benefitted from it for so many years, I feel only a mild twinge of sympathy for the decent conservatives who might be looking at very little representation indeed for their views in the next Parliament.

Nigelb · June 26

Leon said:

Nigelb said:
Farage says what he thinks of his prospective constituents.

#Clacton candidate hustings CANCELLED … because every candidate agreed to take part, with the exception of #Farage, who is happy to stand in front of a chosen Reform audience … but terrified of facing the actual residents of #Clacton.
https://x.com/jdpoc/status/1805674424714096782
A blatant lie if you follow the tweets afterwards

Is it ?
"Terrified" is overegging it, but I think mine was fair comment.
If I were running in a seat, I'd be campaigning there rather than claiming prior engagements.

What does @RochdalePioneers think ?

Scarpia · June 26

Nigelb said:
North Korea's Central Military Commission announced that North Korea would join forces with the Russian military. And as part of the North Korea and Russia military alliance, the North Korean Army engineer unit would be dispatched to Donetsk, Ukraine, which remains occupied by Russia. It will be dispatched as early as next month...
https://x.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1805871124388983109

And the next target for Ukrainian ATACMS will be ...

Anabobazina · June 26

Ghedebrav said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Richardr said:

Anabobazina said:

Ghedebrav said:
On preparing for the evening, my default setting is BBC for these things. Like poor, poor Rishi we don't have Sky, so I guess my other option will be ITN?

I'll have a PB tab open as well ofc.
ITN is far, far superior to the BBC and has been for years. That BBC now have the hopeless LauraK as 'anchorwoman' can only add to their irrepressible malaise.

Meanwhile, ITN have Ozzy and Ballzy – two of the finest political pundits and a great double act.

DYOR.
Based on previous elections:

ITV tend to announce many of the results faster - they don't wait for the declarations - albeit this time around there may be less in it where there are fewer safe seats. The other side of that though is that they show fewer declarations in favour of studio chat.

BBC (and Sky) have the results as they are declared and as a result tend to show a lot more declarations live, and have the numbers in line with each other.
I think in the past ITN has had to backtrack on the odd estimated result. In the overall scheme of things, especially if there is a landslide, but for constituency betting it is unhelpful.
I’ll probably flick between the two and settle on who is least irritating. No adverts is always a big draw for BBC though.

My memory is there are no ads on any of them (including Sky and ITN)?

BartholomewRoberts · June 26

biggles said:

stodge said:
@TSE - seriously, why do you do this to me?

FPT

Afternoon all

Financing local Government is one of those issues which nobody, if they've got any sense, wants to go anywhere near. The fact we are dealing with a hastily imposed settlement brought in as a result of the overthrow of Margaret Thatcher speaks volumes.

30+ years on and the consequences of that stupidity are clear. We have a banding system which bears little or no resemblance to the value of the properties to which it relates and the main reason for its creation - to allow local authorities to fund themselves without having to rely on central Government largesse - has also failed to be addressed.

In some authorites, up to two thirds of expenditure is on the provision of care for vulnerable adults and children as well on children with Special Education Needs (SEN). SEN referrals have increased exponentially since the end of lockdown but the provision of suitable teaching accommodation and the supply of qualified teachers has not. The funding of transport for SEN children is a particular area of concern with many authorities cutting it for children over sixteen.

The central question is what do you want local councils to do? In theory, adult social care could be taken out of local authority control and run by a national care agency which would ensure adequate levels of residential care, specialist (including dementia) care and domiciliary care across the country based on the maxim the older population should be treated with respect and dignity and the care offer should provide that. At the same time, the agency should be promoting in-family care where possible and acting as a positive help for carers of all ages and types. Caring should be viewed as a vital part of family life and carers should be encouraged as much as possible (employers hsould be given huge tax breaks to employ carers).

How do you fund the rest of local Government? With the pressure off in terms of care, other functions can be looked at - we need local community hubs where a range of services and advice are available and very often just a place for the lonely and the alone to go and meet other people. This needs to be a 24 hour a day, seven day a week service provision - the message being if you're lonely, you don't have to be alone.

How this society deals with the alone and the lonely is reprehensible and a shame to us all. Sport, for example, should be leading on this getting people out and about providing free or discounted admission so those who have no social life can have the opportunity to live a little.

Back to funding? @Sandpit rails against property taxation and the truth is there is no fair form of local Government funding. The truth is those with high value properties are doing very well out of the current system and any changes will disadvantage them (and they will whinge) and benefit the providers of Council Tax software (who won't).
Easy. Abolish local government. Everything gets run from the centre and everyone gets the same. Massive efficiencies are made.

The cherry on the top is killing off local politics, so that local busybodies never get any power.

I'd vote for that.

Care should be the responsibility of the Department for Health and Social Care.
SEN and other education needs should be the responsibility of the Department for Education.

While planning should be abolished and people should be free to do as they please on their own land, within national guidelines.

What do we need local politicians for? Just abolish them, and save a fortune!

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