At the 2019 election, the Conservatives were completely dominant in three of these five constituency groups – ‘The Shires’, ‘Comfortable and Commuting’ and ‘Marginal and Mixed’, giving them a clear majority across England and Wales.
Yet, our projections for 2024 show that the Tories are collapsing in their own rural and small town heartlands. In ‘The Shires’, where in 2019 the party held 114 of 116 seats, we estimate in Tory-held seats an average Tory to Labour swing of +21, leaving the party holding on to just 25 seats.
These seats are typically middle class, overwhelmingly white with older populations and many homeowners. Many are places where the Conservatives have long held power, even throughout the Blair years when Labour extended their reach into the constituencies of Middle England.
In Hexham, Northumberland, Labour are likely to win for the first time, after 100 years of Conservative dominance. In South West Norfolk, Labour are predicted to unseat former Prime Minister, Liz Truss, overturning a majority of over 26,000.
Some of the most remarkable stories on election night could come from Thirsk and Malton, Grantham and Bourne, Bexhill and Battle and Skipton and Ripon. The list could go on.
Am I the only one who hates these trite constituency groupings? ‘Comfortable and Commuting’ and ‘Marginal and Mixed’ FFS.
Presume the authors are in one of the Smug and Patronising seats.
You have to call them something. People don't remember phrases like "Group 02", "Group 01", "Seven of Nine, Tertiary Adjunct of Group 01", so you have to give them memorable names that people get.
The WeThink MRP has some odd results. Not sure I buy that Reform are going to take Newark or one of the IOW seats as well as others but Farage fails by 14% points and Tice loses as does 30p Lee. I mean it would be hilarious but I just don’t buy it.
Yes. MRPs are bad at hyper local circumstances.
Possibly. I’m just concerned that we are a reasonable poll error/late swing away from a result that is miles away from the current consensus of the Tories being all but obliterated. Imagine the soul searching if what we get is similar in seats if not vote share to 2005
I just don’t see what is going to happen in the next few days to make a massive chunk of the electorate go “Actually, you know what, the Tories deserve another shot”
Especially given a lot of people have already voted…
Well people are not necessarily logical for a start. I’m not saying that the polling is wrong, but that they probably don’t need to be that wrong to get an outcome in seat terms that looks wildly different to expected. If prior to the election everyone has been told repeatedly that the Tories will practically cease to exist, what will happen if the results don’t bear that out.
Broxbourne and Basildon/Billericay are the first big tests of the models
EC Broxbourne 0.3 Con YG Broxbourne 1% Lab NS Broxbourne 2.4% Lab IPSOS Broxbourne 1% Con SAVANTA Broxbourne 4.97% Lab FOCALDATA Broxbourne 2.0% Con More in Common Broxbourne 6.50% Con Survation Broxbourne 1.73% Con
Same MRPs/models
Basildon and Billericay 2.4 Lab Basildon and Billericay 2% Rfm Basildon and Billericay 0.4% Con Basildon and Billericay 5% Lab Basildon and Billericay 6.89% Lab Basildon and Billericay 8.3% Con Basildon and Billericay 8.80% Con Basildon and Billericay 1.89% Lab
Thank you, and you everyone else doing these spreadsheets.There’s going to be money made on here again isn’t there?
If a lot of us do well, a donate button for the site feels overdue, but also maybe a way to buy a notional beer for the various spreadsheet builders.
@Andy_JS did a spreadsheet for the 2016 referendum, that made many of us here a lot of money. If we should ever meet, he will leave very drunk and not having bought a single drink. 🍻
Oddly enough I didn't make much money out of it myself because I was too busy scrolling through results, etc.
After someone on here encouraged me to do so, I'm doing another spreadsheet this year which will hopefully predict what the result will be in each constituency assuming the overall result is X, and then we can compare the actual result to that.
Good luck with this year’s spreadsheet - and the invitation for drinks very much still stands, eight years later.
While the Graun includes the Badenoch/Tennant spat deep in its rolling coverage, there is no mention at all of it, still less any story on its election website front page.
It's on their main election news feed, and has been for mcuh of today. There is only so much space on the page itself.
"...The PA news agency have a bit more detail on the comments from David Tennant and Kemi Badenoch. Tennant won a prize for being a “celebrity ally” at the British LGBT awards last week and used his speech to target the equalities minister. Badenoch has faced criticism over her approach to trans rights.
Tennant said in his acceptance speech:
"...If I’m honest I’m a little depressed by the fact that acknowledging that everyone has the right to be who they want to be and live their life how they want to live it as long as they’re not hurting anyone else should merit any kind of special award or special mention, because it’s common sense, isn’t it? It is human decency. We shouldn’t live in a world where that is worth remarking on. However, until we wake up and Kemi Badenoch doesn’t exist any more – I don’t wish ill of her, I just wish her to shut up – whilst we do live in this world, I am honoured to receive this...”
In response to Tennant’s comments, Badenoch said:
"...I will not shut up. I will not be silenced by men who prioritise applause from Stonewall over the safety of women and girls. A rich, lefty, white male celebrity so blinded by ideology he can’t see the optics of attacking the only black woman in government by calling publicly for my existence to end. Tennant is one of Labour’s celebrity supporters. This is an early example of what life will be like if they win. Keir Starmer stood by while Rosie Duffield was hounded. He and his supporters will do the same with the country. Do not let the bigots and bullies win...”
"calling publicly for my existence to end".
Kemi Badenoch seems to have reckoned without the fact that we can read.
>everyone has the right to be who they want to be and live their life how they want to live it as long as they’re not hurting anyone else
See the bit in bold. That's the point which this very male-dominated forum keeps on missing. Men who go into women's changing rooms and act as voyeurs (voyeurism is a crime, btw) making women feel uncomfortable and distressed - see the case of the nurses in Darlington - are not living their lives without hurting others.
They want to live their lives as they want regardless of whether or not they hurt others. In some cases, hurting women seems to be the aim. Why else would young masked men gather to shout abuse at women or hold up placards threatening violence against them.
That's the point which is missed and which, when raised on here or elsewhere, gets abuse or contemptuous dismissal, such as being told to shut up.
That's exactly the problem with this sort of rhetoric. It is tantamount to saying that trans women who are allowed to use women's changing rooms or loos are criminals.
It's the same as saying Muslims are terrorists, or Romanians are pickpockets, or gay men are paedophiles.
It's othering, pure and simple. And if you look at polling of women on this subject it gives the lie to the idea this is a battle between the sexes.
There have been enough instances of non-trans people (men!) installing peepholes or cameras in female bathrooms and spaces or even dressing up in rubber "woman" suits
Unconfirmed as yet but numerous sources stating North Korean troops will officially be sent to Ukraine to fight alongside Russian troops in the zone of the SMO.
This comes after they signed strategic partnership treaty deepening military cooperation.
Oh no - here comes North Korea with all its might and resources! Run for the hills!
Putin's thinking is presumably that North Korea has more bullet magnets than Ukraine has bullets.
I was wondering what does the North Korean harvest look like. Does sending 500,000 soldiers to Russia so Russia feeds them have an impact on food availability.
I think Russian food production is reasonably good looking forward ? It's got an almighty land area, small population for the land area and global warming is a strong net benefit for them (One of the few nations it helps) for food production.
Goodwin thinks Reform may have been damaged by Farage's Ukraine comments which is significant coming from him.
It does play into the idea that Farage is most comfortable hanging around with the bad boys.
The Rest is Politics summed it up well this week: Farage and his ilk believe their own bullshit and assume everybody else does too deep down but most are too cowed to admit it. Whereas in reality these (e,g, Putin is right) are distinctly minority views.
When Reform or one of Farage's other vehicles arrive, they do so with ideas that often have quite wide support. Immigration is the obvious example: the median position in the voting public is closer to Reform's than it is to anyone else. Much of their manifesto was (I understand - I haven't read it) unremarkable right wingery. Possibly you could question the sums, but that's true of all small parties. They're not everyone's cup of tea, but they're certainly not minority views. It's not unreasonable of Reform to assume their views have traction. Where they've then gone wrong is possibly by assuming that because some of their views have traction (Reform: there is too much immigration; the government should tackle this; right-hand half of UK electorate: Yes, Reform, you're right.) that ALL of their views will (Reform: Oh, and Putin's actually a really lovely guy; right-hand half of UK electorate: er, what? [edges away quietly)]
I'm sure I'm not the only one to have had the experience of a conversation with a friendly stranger in a pub where a couple of uncontroversial opinions have been followed up by some absolute insanity. This feels like that.
I'm sure plenty will still vote Reform out of sheer rage. But I think even among those that do support for Putin will be a distinctly minority position.
Well yes, I was referring to the 'Putin is right' idea as an example. I agree some of their ideas have more support and thus traction.
Fair enough. I must admit, I've been rather taken aback by the Putin stuff. I knew Nigel was not entirely trustworthy on Ukraine - but I thought he'd at least try to come across as such. And I'm quite staggered there are quite so many out and out Putinistas among Reform candidates. I'm slightly surprised there are that many Putinistas in the country.
I think Sandpit's right on Nigel - he's spent too much time in America and is looking through the wrong Overton window - but I'm surprised at the rest of them. Not that there are cranks in Reform (or indeed any other party) - but that their crankery is so consistent. I'd be interested to know if the Greens are the same.
I am amazed that anybody could be fooled by Farage, but I guess Brexit should have taught me my lesson.
I always knew that Boris, Truss and Raaaaaaab were vacuous idiots (as I repeatedly said on here for years), but to me it has always been obvious that Farage was primarily interested in promoting himself (like Trump). His face on Brexit night when he realised that he had killed his own Euro-gravy train was the only heart warming moment of the evening.
Starmer does not worry me in the same way that the Tory chancers and wide-boys did. I think he will do his best for the country, but I do worry that he is more of a manager than a leader. I hope he has the vision and drive necessary to improve things.
I always prefer a manager to a leader. Back in my day Gary Glitter was the self-styled "leader".
I am a political geek, like most of us here, but I cannot name a single Swiss politician (ever!). Yet Switzerland is one of the most prosperous, contented countries in the world. Maybe it is its lack of "leaders" which contributes to this?
The WeThink MRP has some odd results. Not sure I buy that Reform are going to take Newark or one of the IOW seats as well as others but Farage fails by 14% points and Tice loses as does 30p Lee. I mean it would be hilarious but I just don’t buy it.
Yes. MRPs are bad at hyper local circumstances.
Possibly. I’m just concerned that we are a reasonable poll error/late swing away from a result that is miles away from the current consensus of the Tories being all but obliterated. Imagine the soul searching if what we get is similar in seats if not vote share to 2005
I'd settle for a Labour majority of 60 (2005). I'd settle for Lab/LD getting 330 seats between them. A Labour led government that had to work very obviously hard to retain the voters' support in 2029 would be a good start.
However this won't happen. It is more likely labour will get +-500 seats than +- 320.
Unconfirmed as yet but numerous sources stating North Korean troops will officially be sent to Ukraine to fight alongside Russian troops in the zone of the SMO.
This comes after they signed strategic partnership treaty deepening military cooperation.
Oh no - here comes North Korea with all its might and resources! Run for the hills!
North Korea regular army 950,000 active personnel compared to 75,000 for British army Also 420,000 reserve personnel.
Got any more tractor stats ?
They have thousands of tractors. Apparently they have thousands of tanks too, but only a few dozen T-62s and local derivatives actually serviaceble, which have never not more muddy than for the Pyongyang parade ground.
Possible, especially if the LD vote stays weak in Wales. Montgomery now a no hoper with bet boy which leaves very long shot chances in Pembroke and Monmouth, both very tough to see unless they get towards 23% or so in Wales
Goodwin thinks Reform may have been damaged by Farage's Ukraine comments which is significant coming from him.
It does play into the idea that Farage is most comfortable hanging around with the bad boys.
The Rest is Politics summed it up well this week: Farage and his ilk believe their own bullshit and assume everybody else does too deep down but most are too cowed to admit it. Whereas in reality these (e,g, Putin is right) are distinctly minority views.
When Reform or one of Farage's other vehicles arrive, they do so with ideas that often have quite wide support. Immigration is the obvious example: the median position in the voting public is closer to Reform's than it is to anyone else. Much of their manifesto was (I understand - I haven't read it) unremarkable right wingery. Possibly you could question the sums, but that's true of all small parties. They're not everyone's cup of tea, but they're certainly not minority views. It's not unreasonable of Reform to assume their views have traction. Where they've then gone wrong is possibly by assuming that because some of their views have traction (Reform: there is too much immigration; the government should tackle this; right-hand half of UK electorate: Yes, Reform, you're right.) that ALL of their views will (Reform: Oh, and Putin's actually a really lovely guy; right-hand half of UK electorate: er, what? [edges away quietly)]
I'm sure I'm not the only one to have had the experience of a conversation with a friendly stranger in a pub where a couple of uncontroversial opinions have been followed up by some absolute insanity. This feels like that.
I'm sure plenty will still vote Reform out of sheer rage. But I think even among those that do support for Putin will be a distinctly minority position.
Well yes, I was referring to the 'Putin is right' idea as an example. I agree some of their ideas have more support and thus traction.
Fair enough. I must admit, I've been rather taken aback by the Putin stuff. I knew Nigel was not entirely trustworthy on Ukraine - but I thought he'd at least try to come across as such. And I'm quite staggered there are quite so many out and out Putinistas among Reform candidates. I'm slightly surprised there are that many Putinistas in the country.
I think Sandpit's right on Nigel - he's spent too much time in America and is looking through the wrong Overton window - but I'm surprised at the rest of them. Not that there are cranks in Reform (or indeed any other party) - but that their crankery is so consistent. I'd be interested to know if the Greens are the same.
I am amazed that anybody could be fooled by Farage, but I guess Brexit should have taught me my lesson.
I always knew that Boris, Truss and Raaaaaaab were vacuous idiots (as I repeatedly said on here for years), but to me it has always been obvious that Farage was primarily interested in promoting himself (like Trump). His face on Brexit night when he realised that he had killed his own Euro-gravy train was the only heart warming moment of the evening.
Starmer does not worry me in the same way that the Tory chancers and wide-boys did. I think he will do his best for the country, but I do worry that he is more of a manager than a leader. I hope he has the vision and drive necessary to improve things.
I always prefer a manager to a leader. Back in my day Gary Glitter was the self-styled "leader".
There was another one who liked that title mein...
[snip] Everything anyone wants to build should be waved through.
*Applauds.*
I don't agree, but I love mad and uncompromising certainty on an extreme position.
But let's keep that outside the Box.
But if we agree that we need a bigger box, we'll need Bart's support to get planning permission for it. And an Overton window which overlooks his back garden.
We'll be able to wave to him while we're thinking inside it.
While the Graun includes the Badenoch/Tennant spat deep in its rolling coverage, there is no mention at all of it, still less any story on its election website front page.
It's on their main election news feed, and has been for mcuh of today. There is only so much space on the page itself.
"...The PA news agency have a bit more detail on the comments from David Tennant and Kemi Badenoch. Tennant won a prize for being a “celebrity ally” at the British LGBT awards last week and used his speech to target the equalities minister. Badenoch has faced criticism over her approach to trans rights.
Tennant said in his acceptance speech:
"...If I’m honest I’m a little depressed by the fact that acknowledging that everyone has the right to be who they want to be and live their life how they want to live it as long as they’re not hurting anyone else should merit any kind of special award or special mention, because it’s common sense, isn’t it? It is human decency. We shouldn’t live in a world where that is worth remarking on. However, until we wake up and Kemi Badenoch doesn’t exist any more – I don’t wish ill of her, I just wish her to shut up – whilst we do live in this world, I am honoured to receive this...”
In response to Tennant’s comments, Badenoch said:
"...I will not shut up. I will not be silenced by men who prioritise applause from Stonewall over the safety of women and girls. A rich, lefty, white male celebrity so blinded by ideology he can’t see the optics of attacking the only black woman in government by calling publicly for my existence to end. Tennant is one of Labour’s celebrity supporters. This is an early example of what life will be like if they win. Keir Starmer stood by while Rosie Duffield was hounded. He and his supporters will do the same with the country. Do not let the bigots and bullies win...”
"calling publicly for my existence to end".
Kemi Badenoch seems to have reckoned without the fact that we can read.
>everyone has the right to be who they want to be and live their life how they want to live it as long as they’re not hurting anyone else
See the bit in bold. That's the point which this very male-dominated forum keeps on missing. Men who go into women's changing rooms and act as voyeurs (voyeurism is a crime, btw) making women feel uncomfortable and distressed - see the case of the nurses in Darlington - are not living their lives without hurting others.
They want to live their lives as they want regardless of whether or not they hurt others. In some cases, hurting women seems to be the aim. Why else would young masked men gather to shout abuse at women or hold up placards threatening violence against them.
That's the point which is missed and which, when raised on here or elsewhere, gets abuse or contemptuous dismissal, such as being told to shut up.
That's exactly the problem with this sort of rhetoric. It is tantamount to saying that trans women who are allowed to use women's changing rooms or loos are criminals.
It's the same as saying Muslims are terrorists, or Romanians are pickpockets, or gay men are paedophiles.
It's othering, pure and simple. And if you look at polling of women on this subject it gives the lie to the idea this is a battle between the sexes.
There have been enough instances of non-trans people (men!) installing peepholes or cameras in female bathrooms and spaces or even dressing up in rubber "woman" suits
Finchley & Golders Green expected to be fairly close according to the Economist.
Lab 34% Con 29% LD 20% Ref 9% Grn 6%
On the new boundaries, the 2019 result was Con 44%, LD 32%, Lab 24% so that would be a 12.5% swing from Conservative to Labour which would be respectable in London terms based on the YouGov poll from earlier in the week.
LDs well down as I am expecting outside the south west of the capital where I think they will do well.
Assuming this MRP has taken hyper-local events into account.
A famous employment tribunal case established that it is quite legal to be rude to scousers on the grounds that regional accents and identities are not protected characteristics.
While the Graun includes the Badenoch/Tennant spat deep in its rolling coverage, there is no mention at all of it, still less any story on its election website front page.
It's on their main election news feed, and has been for mcuh of today. There is only so much space on the page itself.
"...The PA news agency have a bit more detail on the comments from David Tennant and Kemi Badenoch. Tennant won a prize for being a “celebrity ally” at the British LGBT awards last week and used his speech to target the equalities minister. Badenoch has faced criticism over her approach to trans rights.
Tennant said in his acceptance speech:
"...If I’m honest I’m a little depressed by the fact that acknowledging that everyone has the right to be who they want to be and live their life how they want to live it as long as they’re not hurting anyone else should merit any kind of special award or special mention, because it’s common sense, isn’t it? It is human decency. We shouldn’t live in a world where that is worth remarking on. However, until we wake up and Kemi Badenoch doesn’t exist any more – I don’t wish ill of her, I just wish her to shut up – whilst we do live in this world, I am honoured to receive this...”
In response to Tennant’s comments, Badenoch said:
"...I will not shut up. I will not be silenced by men who prioritise applause from Stonewall over the safety of women and girls. A rich, lefty, white male celebrity so blinded by ideology he can’t see the optics of attacking the only black woman in government by calling publicly for my existence to end. Tennant is one of Labour’s celebrity supporters. This is an early example of what life will be like if they win. Keir Starmer stood by while Rosie Duffield was hounded. He and his supporters will do the same with the country. Do not let the bigots and bullies win...”
"calling publicly for my existence to end".
Kemi Badenoch seems to have reckoned without the fact that we can read.
How would you interpret "until we wake up and Kemi Badenoch doesn't exist" in any way other than that this would be a good thing.
The WeThink MRP has some odd results. Not sure I buy that Reform are going to take Newark or one of the IOW seats as well as others but Farage fails by 14% points and Tice loses as does 30p Lee. I mean it would be hilarious but I just don’t buy it.
Yes. MRPs are bad at hyper local circumstances.
Possibly. I’m just concerned that we are a reasonable poll error/late swing away from a result that is miles away from the current consensus of the Tories being all but obliterated. Imagine the soul searching if what we get is similar in seats if not vote share to 2005
I just don’t see what is going to happen in the next few days to make a massive chunk of the electorate go “Actually, you know what, the Tories deserve another shot”
Especially given a lot of people have already voted…
Well people are not necessarily logical for a start. I’m not saying that the polling is wrong, but that they probably don’t need to be that wrong to get an outcome in seat terms that looks wildly different to expected. If prior to the election everyone has been told repeatedly that the Tories will practically cease to exist, what will happen if the results don’t bear that out.
What will happen is that the Tories will breathe a sigh of relief and then descend into several months of internal naval gazing. I'd guess if they end up with between 150 and 200 seats they may well then emerge with a leader like Mordaunt or Barclay. If they end up completely spanked with close to or below 100 seats then I think it becomes a much nastier fight between populist Reform-anschluss supporters and traditional tribal Tories.
You are right on the risk of error though. We are only a small polling error, plus a little bit of standard homeward bound swingback in the last week at the expense of Reform, away from a score closer to 200 than 100 seats.
Goodwin thinks Reform may have been damaged by Farage's Ukraine comments which is significant coming from him.
It does play into the idea that Farage is most comfortable hanging around with the bad boys.
The Rest is Politics summed it up well this week: Farage and his ilk believe their own bullshit and assume everybody else does too deep down but most are too cowed to admit it. Whereas in reality these (e,g, Putin is right) are distinctly minority views.
When Reform or one of Farage's other vehicles arrive, they do so with ideas that often have quite wide support. Immigration is the obvious example: the median position in the voting public is closer to Reform's than it is to anyone else. Much of their manifesto was (I understand - I haven't read it) unremarkable right wingery. Possibly you could question the sums, but that's true of all small parties. They're not everyone's cup of tea, but they're certainly not minority views. It's not unreasonable of Reform to assume their views have traction. Where they've then gone wrong is possibly by assuming that because some of their views have traction (Reform: there is too much immigration; the government should tackle this; right-hand half of UK electorate: Yes, Reform, you're right.) that ALL of their views will (Reform: Oh, and Putin's actually a really lovely guy; right-hand half of UK electorate: er, what? [edges away quietly)]
I'm sure I'm not the only one to have had the experience of a conversation with a friendly stranger in a pub where a couple of uncontroversial opinions have been followed up by some absolute insanity. This feels like that.
I'm sure plenty will still vote Reform out of sheer rage. But I think even among those that do support for Putin will be a distinctly minority position.
Well yes, I was referring to the 'Putin is right' idea as an example. I agree some of their ideas have more support and thus traction.
Fair enough. I must admit, I've been rather taken aback by the Putin stuff. I knew Nigel was not entirely trustworthy on Ukraine - but I thought he'd at least try to come across as such. And I'm quite staggered there are quite so many out and out Putinistas among Reform candidates. I'm slightly surprised there are that many Putinistas in the country.
I think Sandpit's right on Nigel - he's spent too much time in America and is looking through the wrong Overton window - but I'm surprised at the rest of them. Not that there are cranks in Reform (or indeed any other party) - but that their crankery is so consistent. I'd be interested to know if the Greens are the same.
I am amazed that anybody could be fooled by Farage, but I guess Brexit should have taught me my lesson.
I always knew that Boris, Truss and Raaaaaaab were vacuous idiots (as I repeatedly said on here for years), but to me it has always been obvious that Farage was primarily interested in promoting himself (like Trump). His face on Brexit night when he realised that he had killed his own Euro-gravy train was the only heart warming moment of the evening.
Starmer does not worry me in the same way that the Tory chancers and wide-boys did. I think he will do his best for the country, but I do worry that he is more of a manager than a leader. I hope he has the vision and drive necessary to improve things.
I always prefer a manager to a leader. Back in my day Gary Glitter was the self-styled "leader".
I am a political geek, like most of us here, but I cannot name a single Swiss politician (ever!). Yet Switzerland is one of the most prosperous, contented countries in the world. Maybe it is its lack of "leaders" which contributes to this?
Unconfirmed as yet but numerous sources stating North Korean troops will officially be sent to Ukraine to fight alongside Russian troops in the zone of the SMO.
This comes after they signed strategic partnership treaty deepening military cooperation.
Oh no - here comes North Korea with all its might and resources! Run for the hills!
They've a militarised society, a massive army and lots of ballistic missiles. I think you'd be foolish to imagine this won't make a difference. Plus what has Russia promised NK?
If the North Korean Army went all-in to support Russia it might prolong the Russian war effort for 12-18 months, but at the cost of North Korea not being able to fight a conventional war on the Korean peninsula for at least the next decade.
They wouldn't make such a move except in trade for some serious nuclear and missile technology.
A famous employment tribunal case established that it is quite legal to be rude to scousers on the grounds that regional accents and identities are not protected characteristics.
A famous employment tribunal case established that it is quite legal to be rude to scousers on the grounds that regional accents and identities are not protected characteristics.
Unconfirmed as yet but numerous sources stating North Korean troops will officially be sent to Ukraine to fight alongside Russian troops in the zone of the SMO.
This comes after they signed strategic partnership treaty deepening military cooperation.
Oh no - here comes North Korea with all its might and resources! Run for the hills!
North Korea regular army 950,000 active personnel compared to 75,000 for British army Also 420,000 reserve personnel.
That tells you just how fucked Russia is. That they are depending on soldiers from one of the poorest countries in the world to hand over cannon fodder.
The WeThink MRP has some odd results. Not sure I buy that Reform are going to take Newark or one of the IOW seats as well as others but Farage fails by 14% points and Tice loses as does 30p Lee. I mean it would be hilarious but I just don’t buy it.
Yes. MRPs are bad at hyper local circumstances.
Possibly. I’m just concerned that we are a reasonable poll error/late swing away from a result that is miles away from the current consensus of the Tories being all but obliterated. Imagine the soul searching if what we get is similar in seats if not vote share to 2005
I just don’t see what is going to happen in the next few days to make a massive chunk of the electorate go “Actually, you know what, the Tories deserve another shot”
Especially given a lot of people have already voted…
Well people are not necessarily logical for a start. I’m not saying that the polling is wrong, but that they probably don’t need to be that wrong to get an outcome in seat terms that looks wildly different to expected. If prior to the election everyone has been told repeatedly that the Tories will practically cease to exist, what will happen if the results don’t bear that out.
What will happen is that the Tories will breathe a sigh of relief and then descend into several months of internal naval gazing. I'd guess if they end up with between 150 and 200 seats they may well then emerge with a leader like Mordaunt or Barclay. If they end up completely spanked with close to or below 100 seats then I think it becomes a much nastier fight between populist Reform-anschluss supporters and traditional tribal Tories.
You are right on the risk of error though. We are only a small polling error, plus a little bit of standard homeward bound swingback in the last week at the expense of Reform, away from a score closer to 200 than 100 seats.
When you play with the numbers, so many of these party scores are clustered around cliff edge effects up and down. More likely than not the result will be a dull 400 plays 150 but anything from Tory electoral wipeout to hung Parliament feels like it’s within a smallish standard deviation.
Unconfirmed as yet but numerous sources stating North Korean troops will officially be sent to Ukraine to fight alongside Russian troops in the zone of the SMO.
This comes after they signed strategic partnership treaty deepening military cooperation.
Oh no - here comes North Korea with all its might and resources! Run for the hills!
They've a militarised society, a massive army and lots of ballistic missiles. I think you'd be foolish to imagine this won't make a difference. Plus what has Russia promised NK?
If the North Korean Army went all-in to support Russia it might prolong the Russian war effort for 12-18 months, but at the cost of North Korea not being able to fight a conventional war on the Korean peninsula for at least the next decade.
They wouldn't make such a move except in trade for some serious nuclear and missile technology.
North Korea has a lots of stuff but of dubious quality. Apparently imbalance in their artillery shells that have arrived in Russia, already, is a big issue. The effects of which range (ha!) from missing the target to Mr Wrong Kind Of Boom.
While the Graun includes the Badenoch/Tennant spat deep in its rolling coverage, there is no mention at all of it, still less any story on its election website front page.
It's on their main election news feed, and has been for mcuh of today. There is only so much space on the page itself.
"...The PA news agency have a bit more detail on the comments from David Tennant and Kemi Badenoch. Tennant won a prize for being a “celebrity ally” at the British LGBT awards last week and used his speech to target the equalities minister. Badenoch has faced criticism over her approach to trans rights.
Tennant said in his acceptance speech:
"...If I’m honest I’m a little depressed by the fact that acknowledging that everyone has the right to be who they want to be and live their life how they want to live it as long as they’re not hurting anyone else should merit any kind of special award or special mention, because it’s common sense, isn’t it? It is human decency. We shouldn’t live in a world where that is worth remarking on. However, until we wake up and Kemi Badenoch doesn’t exist any more – I don’t wish ill of her, I just wish her to shut up – whilst we do live in this world, I am honoured to receive this...”
In response to Tennant’s comments, Badenoch said:
"...I will not shut up. I will not be silenced by men who prioritise applause from Stonewall over the safety of women and girls. A rich, lefty, white male celebrity so blinded by ideology he can’t see the optics of attacking the only black woman in government by calling publicly for my existence to end. Tennant is one of Labour’s celebrity supporters. This is an early example of what life will be like if they win. Keir Starmer stood by while Rosie Duffield was hounded. He and his supporters will do the same with the country. Do not let the bigots and bullies win...”
"calling publicly for my existence to end".
Kemi Badenoch seems to have reckoned without the fact that we can read.
>everyone has the right to be who they want to be and live their life how they want to live it as long as they’re not hurting anyone else
See the bit in bold. That's the point which this very male-dominated forum keeps on missing. Men who go into women's changing rooms and act as voyeurs (voyeurism is a crime, btw) making women feel uncomfortable and distressed - see the case of the nurses in Darlington - are not living their lives without hurting others.
They want to live their lives as they want regardless of whether or not they hurt others. In some cases, hurting women seems to be the aim. Why else would young masked men gather to shout abuse at women or hold up placards threatening violence against them.
That's the point which is missed and which, when raised on here or elsewhere, gets abuse or contemptuous dismissal, such as being told to shut up.
That's exactly the problem with this sort of rhetoric. It is tantamount to saying that trans women who are allowed to use women's changing rooms or loos are criminals.
It's the same as saying Muslims are terrorists, or Romanians are pickpockets, or gay men are paedophiles.
It's othering, pure and simple. And if you look at polling of women on this subject it gives the lie to the idea this is a battle between the sexes.
There have been enough instances of non-trans people (men!) installing peepholes or cameras in female bathrooms and spaces or even dressing up in rubber "woman" suits
While the Graun includes the Badenoch/Tennant spat deep in its rolling coverage, there is no mention at all of it, still less any story on its election website front page.
It's on their main election news feed, and has been for mcuh of today. There is only so much space on the page itself.
"...The PA news agency have a bit more detail on the comments from David Tennant and Kemi Badenoch. Tennant won a prize for being a “celebrity ally” at the British LGBT awards last week and used his speech to target the equalities minister. Badenoch has faced criticism over her approach to trans rights.
Tennant said in his acceptance speech:
"...If I’m honest I’m a little depressed by the fact that acknowledging that everyone has the right to be who they want to be and live their life how they want to live it as long as they’re not hurting anyone else should merit any kind of special award or special mention, because it’s common sense, isn’t it? It is human decency. We shouldn’t live in a world where that is worth remarking on. However, until we wake up and Kemi Badenoch doesn’t exist any more – I don’t wish ill of her, I just wish her to shut up – whilst we do live in this world, I am honoured to receive this...”
In response to Tennant’s comments, Badenoch said:
"...I will not shut up. I will not be silenced by men who prioritise applause from Stonewall over the safety of women and girls. A rich, lefty, white male celebrity so blinded by ideology he can’t see the optics of attacking the only black woman in government by calling publicly for my existence to end. Tennant is one of Labour’s celebrity supporters. This is an early example of what life will be like if they win. Keir Starmer stood by while Rosie Duffield was hounded. He and his supporters will do the same with the country. Do not let the bigots and bullies win...”
"calling publicly for my existence to end".
Kemi Badenoch seems to have reckoned without the fact that we can read.
How would you interpret "until we wake up and Kemi Badenoch doesn't exist" in any way other than that this would be a good thing.
Which of the words in the phrase "I don't wish ill of her" is beyond your understanding?
Unconfirmed as yet but numerous sources stating North Korean troops will officially be sent to Ukraine to fight alongside Russian troops in the zone of the SMO.
This comes after they signed strategic partnership treaty deepening military cooperation.
Oh no - here comes North Korea with all its might and resources! Run for the hills!
North Korea regular army 950,000 active personnel compared to 75,000 for British army Also 420,000 reserve personnel.
That tells you just how fucked Russia is. That they are depending on soldiers from one of the poorest countries in the world to hand over cannon fodder.
And Putin had to play suckup to the fat controller. That must have smarted.
You don't have to be a Putin fan to accept that no one is going to evict him from the six counties oblasts (five in Ukraine plus Transdinistra) any time soon and an armistice with partition, then support to make it stick a la South Korea is better than continuing the slaughter and risking it escalating further, and being of the view that interfering in other countries affairs on sanctimonious moral grounds often disguising vested interests (Ukraine 2014, Libya 2011, Iraq 2003, Afghanistan 2003-2022, Iran 1953 ends up causing far worse problems than the ones they were intended to resolve.
While the Graun includes the Badenoch/Tennant spat deep in its rolling coverage, there is no mention at all of it, still less any story on its election website front page.
It's on their main election news feed, and has been for mcuh of today. There is only so much space on the page itself.
"...The PA news agency have a bit more detail on the comments from David Tennant and Kemi Badenoch. Tennant won a prize for being a “celebrity ally” at the British LGBT awards last week and used his speech to target the equalities minister. Badenoch has faced criticism over her approach to trans rights.
Tennant said in his acceptance speech:
"...If I’m honest I’m a little depressed by the fact that acknowledging that everyone has the right to be who they want to be and live their life how they want to live it as long as they’re not hurting anyone else should merit any kind of special award or special mention, because it’s common sense, isn’t it? It is human decency. We shouldn’t live in a world where that is worth remarking on. However, until we wake up and Kemi Badenoch doesn’t exist any more – I don’t wish ill of her, I just wish her to shut up – whilst we do live in this world, I am honoured to receive this...”
In response to Tennant’s comments, Badenoch said:
"...I will not shut up. I will not be silenced by men who prioritise applause from Stonewall over the safety of women and girls. A rich, lefty, white male celebrity so blinded by ideology he can’t see the optics of attacking the only black woman in government by calling publicly for my existence to end. Tennant is one of Labour’s celebrity supporters. This is an early example of what life will be like if they win. Keir Starmer stood by while Rosie Duffield was hounded. He and his supporters will do the same with the country. Do not let the bigots and bullies win...”
"calling publicly for my existence to end".
Kemi Badenoch seems to have reckoned without the fact that we can read.
>everyone has the right to be who they want to be and live their life how they want to live it as long as they’re not hurting anyone else
See the bit in bold. That's the point which this very male-dominated forum keeps on missing. Men who go into women's changing rooms and act as voyeurs (voyeurism is a crime, btw) making women feel uncomfortable and distressed - see the case of the nurses in Darlington - are not living their lives without hurting others.
They want to live their lives as they want regardless of whether or not they hurt others. In some cases, hurting women seems to be the aim. Why else would young masked men gather to shout abuse at women or hold up placards threatening violence against them.
That's the point which is missed and which, when raised on here or elsewhere, gets abuse or contemptuous dismissal, such as being told to shut up.
That's exactly the problem with this sort of rhetoric. It is tantamount to saying that trans women who are allowed to use women's changing rooms or loos are criminals.
It's the same as saying Muslims are terrorists, or Romanians are pickpockets, or gay men are paedophiles.
It's othering, pure and simple. And if you look at polling of women on this subject it gives the lie to the idea this is a battle between the sexes.
There have been enough instances of non-trans people (men!) installing peepholes or cameras in female bathrooms and spaces or even dressing up in rubber "woman" suits
At the 2019 election, the Conservatives were completely dominant in three of these five constituency groups – ‘The Shires’, ‘Comfortable and Commuting’ and ‘Marginal and Mixed’, giving them a clear majority across England and Wales.
Yet, our projections for 2024 show that the Tories are collapsing in their own rural and small town heartlands. In ‘The Shires’, where in 2019 the party held 114 of 116 seats, we estimate in Tory-held seats an average Tory to Labour swing of +21, leaving the party holding on to just 25 seats.
These seats are typically middle class, overwhelmingly white with older populations and many homeowners. Many are places where the Conservatives have long held power, even throughout the Blair years when Labour extended their reach into the constituencies of Middle England.
In Hexham, Northumberland, Labour are likely to win for the first time, after 100 years of Conservative dominance. In South West Norfolk, Labour are predicted to unseat former Prime Minister, Liz Truss, overturning a majority of over 26,000.
Some of the most remarkable stories on election night could come from Thirsk and Malton, Grantham and Bourne, Bexhill and Battle and Skipton and Ripon. The list could go on.
"The birthplace of Margaret Thatcher now has a Labour MP..."
Lady Thatcher on maximum rotisserie setting.
Technically it had a Labour MP between 2007 and 2010 when Quentin Davies proved he was a traitorous pig dog defector.
Labour to bring in automatic voter registration under plans to boost franchise
Labour is planning to introduce automatic registration for voting under plans to add millions more people to the electoral roll for future elections, especially young people, the Guardian has learned.
Starmer is not going to waste any opportunity to put finger on the scales once he gets power. Where as the Tories spent 14 years not really gaining a massive advantage of the much watered down redrawing constituencies (remember the more radical proposal originally was far fewer seats) and the voter id stuff which is nothing like the gerrymandering type stuff in the US.
I can see a scandal coming of people being auto registered who end up not being eligible.
While the Graun includes the Badenoch/Tennant spat deep in its rolling coverage, there is no mention at all of it, still less any story on its election website front page.
It's on their main election news feed, and has been for mcuh of today. There is only so much space on the page itself.
"...The PA news agency have a bit more detail on the comments from David Tennant and Kemi Badenoch. Tennant won a prize for being a “celebrity ally” at the British LGBT awards last week and used his speech to target the equalities minister. Badenoch has faced criticism over her approach to trans rights.
Tennant said in his acceptance speech:
"...If I’m honest I’m a little depressed by the fact that acknowledging that everyone has the right to be who they want to be and live their life how they want to live it as long as they’re not hurting anyone else should merit any kind of special award or special mention, because it’s common sense, isn’t it? It is human decency. We shouldn’t live in a world where that is worth remarking on. However, until we wake up and Kemi Badenoch doesn’t exist any more – I don’t wish ill of her, I just wish her to shut up – whilst we do live in this world, I am honoured to receive this...”
In response to Tennant’s comments, Badenoch said:
"...I will not shut up. I will not be silenced by men who prioritise applause from Stonewall over the safety of women and girls. A rich, lefty, white male celebrity so blinded by ideology he can’t see the optics of attacking the only black woman in government by calling publicly for my existence to end. Tennant is one of Labour’s celebrity supporters. This is an early example of what life will be like if they win. Keir Starmer stood by while Rosie Duffield was hounded. He and his supporters will do the same with the country. Do not let the bigots and bullies win...”
"calling publicly for my existence to end".
Kemi Badenoch seems to have reckoned without the fact that we can read.
>everyone has the right to be who they want to be and live their life how they want to live it as long as they’re not hurting anyone else
See the bit in bold. That's the point which this very male-dominated forum keeps on missing. Men who go into women's changing rooms and act as voyeurs (voyeurism is a crime, btw) making women feel uncomfortable and distressed - see the case of the nurses in Darlington - are not living their lives without hurting others.
They want to live their lives as they want regardless of whether or not they hurt others. In some cases, hurting women seems to be the aim. Why else would young masked men gather to shout abuse at women or hold up placards threatening violence against them.
That's the point which is missed and which, when raised on here or elsewhere, gets abuse or contemptuous dismissal, such as being told to shut up.
That's exactly the problem with this sort of rhetoric. It is tantamount to saying that trans women who are allowed to use women's changing rooms or loos are criminals.
It's the same as saying Muslims are terrorists, or Romanians are pickpockets, or gay men are paedophiles.
It's othering, pure and simple. And if you look at polling of women on this subject it gives the lie to the idea this is a battle between the sexes.
There have been enough instances of non-trans people (men!) installing peepholes or cameras in female bathrooms and spaces or even dressing up in rubber "woman" suits
Besides, what do we do with trans-men? Should this guy be told to use the ladies just because his birth certificate says "female"?
The men don’t care who uses the men’s room.
Not only is that completely wrong, it is not the point. If Trans-women are not women and should use the men's toilets then trans-men are not men and should use the women's toilets.
You cannot say that birth is biology and then claim it only applies to one group.
As to your earlier point, how many lads would be comfortable at the urinals whilst this person uses her "birth gender toilet"?
We want to deeply thank His Majesty King Charles III for his birthday wishes to Hello Kitty on her 50th anniversary, during the visit of Their Majesties Emperor Naruhito and Empress Masako. https://x.com/WeRHelloKitty/status/1805969137006505985
You don't have to be a Putin fan to accept that no one is going to evict him from the six counties oblasts (five in Ukraine plus Transdinistra) any time soon and an armistice with partition, then support to make it stick a la South Korea is better than continuing the slaughter and risking it escalating further, and being of the view that interfering in other countries affairs on sanctimonious moral grounds often disguising vested interests (Ukraine 2014, Libya 2011, Iraq 2003, Afghanistan 2003-2022, Iran 1953 ends up causing far worse problems than the ones they were intended to resolve.
You don't have to be a Putin fan to accept that no one is going to evict him from the six counties oblasts (five in Ukraine plus Transdinistra) any time soon...
I'm sure people thought the same about the Serb forces in Croatia, but they were forced out and a united Croatia is now in the EU and NATO.
The future isn't certain, and we have an opportunity for a great victory for democracy over tyranny.
You don't have to be a Putin fan to accept that no one is going to evict him from the six counties oblasts (five in Ukraine plus Transdinistra) any time soon and an armistice with partition, then support to make it stick a la South Korea is better than continuing the slaughter and risking it escalating further, and being of the view that interfering in other countries affairs on sanctimonious moral grounds often disguising vested interests (Ukraine 2014, Libya 2011, Iraq 2003, Afghanistan 2003-2022, Iran 1953 ends up causing far worse problems than the ones they were intended to resolve.
Remember: invading is usually the easy part.
And it's the occupation that usually kills you.
Those Oblasts will be a constant resource drain on the Russian economy, in terms of men and material, and they will produce bugger all tax revenue.
And all the time, Russia will grow economically weaker. It is utterly dependent on energy exports, and it has completely fucked itself.
While the Graun includes the Badenoch/Tennant spat deep in its rolling coverage, there is no mention at all of it, still less any story on its election website front page.
It's on their main election news feed, and has been for mcuh of today. There is only so much space on the page itself.
"...The PA news agency have a bit more detail on the comments from David Tennant and Kemi Badenoch. Tennant won a prize for being a “celebrity ally” at the British LGBT awards last week and used his speech to target the equalities minister. Badenoch has faced criticism over her approach to trans rights.
Tennant said in his acceptance speech:
"...If I’m honest I’m a little depressed by the fact that acknowledging that everyone has the right to be who they want to be and live their life how they want to live it as long as they’re not hurting anyone else should merit any kind of special award or special mention, because it’s common sense, isn’t it? It is human decency. We shouldn’t live in a world where that is worth remarking on. However, until we wake up and Kemi Badenoch doesn’t exist any more – I don’t wish ill of her, I just wish her to shut up – whilst we do live in this world, I am honoured to receive this...”
In response to Tennant’s comments, Badenoch said:
"...I will not shut up. I will not be silenced by men who prioritise applause from Stonewall over the safety of women and girls. A rich, lefty, white male celebrity so blinded by ideology he can’t see the optics of attacking the only black woman in government by calling publicly for my existence to end. Tennant is one of Labour’s celebrity supporters. This is an early example of what life will be like if they win. Keir Starmer stood by while Rosie Duffield was hounded. He and his supporters will do the same with the country. Do not let the bigots and bullies win...”
"calling publicly for my existence to end".
Kemi Badenoch seems to have reckoned without the fact that we can read.
>everyone has the right to be who they want to be and live their life how they want to live it as long as they’re not hurting anyone else
See the bit in bold. That's the point which this very male-dominated forum keeps on missing. Men who go into women's changing rooms and act as voyeurs (voyeurism is a crime, btw) making women feel uncomfortable and distressed - see the case of the nurses in Darlington - are not living their lives without hurting others.
They want to live their lives as they want regardless of whether or not they hurt others. In some cases, hurting women seems to be the aim. Why else would young masked men gather to shout abuse at women or hold up placards threatening violence against them.
That's the point which is missed and which, when raised on here or elsewhere, gets abuse or contemptuous dismissal, such as being told to shut up.
That's exactly the problem with this sort of rhetoric. It is tantamount to saying that trans women who are allowed to use women's changing rooms or loos are criminals.
It's the same as saying Muslims are terrorists, or Romanians are pickpockets, or gay men are paedophiles.
It's othering, pure and simple. And if you look at polling of women on this subject it gives the lie to the idea this is a battle between the sexes.
There have been enough instances of non-trans people (men!) installing peepholes or cameras in female bathrooms and spaces or even dressing up in rubber "woman" suits
Besides, what do we do with trans-men? Should this guy be told to use the ladies just because his birth certificate says "female"?
The men don’t care who uses the men’s room.
Not only is that completely wrong, it is not the point. If Trans-women are not women and should use the men's toilets then trans-men are not men and should use the women's toilets.
You cannot say that birth is biology and then claim it only applies to one group.
As to your earlier point, how many lads would be comfortable at the urinals whilst this person uses her "birth gender toilet"?
I would. There is a fundamental difference here. The average bloke (not all, but the average) doesn’t really care who sees his bits, especially outside of a sexual context, and is usually not at any real risk of anything more than being mocked if he gets them out.
That’s why the conversation is framed around women.
While the Graun includes the Badenoch/Tennant spat deep in its rolling coverage, there is no mention at all of it, still less any story on its election website front page.
It's on their main election news feed, and has been for mcuh of today. There is only so much space on the page itself.
"...The PA news agency have a bit more detail on the comments from David Tennant and Kemi Badenoch. Tennant won a prize for being a “celebrity ally” at the British LGBT awards last week and used his speech to target the equalities minister. Badenoch has faced criticism over her approach to trans rights.
Tennant said in his acceptance speech:
"...If I’m honest I’m a little depressed by the fact that acknowledging that everyone has the right to be who they want to be and live their life how they want to live it as long as they’re not hurting anyone else should merit any kind of special award or special mention, because it’s common sense, isn’t it? It is human decency. We shouldn’t live in a world where that is worth remarking on. However, until we wake up and Kemi Badenoch doesn’t exist any more – I don’t wish ill of her, I just wish her to shut up – whilst we do live in this world, I am honoured to receive this...”
In response to Tennant’s comments, Badenoch said:
"...I will not shut up. I will not be silenced by men who prioritise applause from Stonewall over the safety of women and girls. A rich, lefty, white male celebrity so blinded by ideology he can’t see the optics of attacking the only black woman in government by calling publicly for my existence to end. Tennant is one of Labour’s celebrity supporters. This is an early example of what life will be like if they win. Keir Starmer stood by while Rosie Duffield was hounded. He and his supporters will do the same with the country. Do not let the bigots and bullies win...”
"calling publicly for my existence to end".
Kemi Badenoch seems to have reckoned without the fact that we can read.
>everyone has the right to be who they want to be and live their life how they want to live it as long as they’re not hurting anyone else
See the bit in bold. That's the point which this very male-dominated forum keeps on missing. Men who go into women's changing rooms and act as voyeurs (voyeurism is a crime, btw) making women feel uncomfortable and distressed - see the case of the nurses in Darlington - are not living their lives without hurting others.
They want to live their lives as they want regardless of whether or not they hurt others. In some cases, hurting women seems to be the aim. Why else would young masked men gather to shout abuse at women or hold up placards threatening violence against them.
That's the point which is missed and which, when raised on here or elsewhere, gets abuse or contemptuous dismissal, such as being told to shut up.
That's exactly the problem with this sort of rhetoric. It is tantamount to saying that trans women who are allowed to use women's changing rooms or loos are criminals.
It's the same as saying Muslims are terrorists, or Romanians are pickpockets, or gay men are paedophiles.
It's othering, pure and simple. And if you look at polling of women on this subject it gives the lie to the idea this is a battle between the sexes.
There have been enough instances of non-trans people (men!) installing peepholes or cameras in female bathrooms and spaces or even dressing up in rubber "woman" suits
Besides, what do we do with trans-men? Should this guy be told to use the ladies just because his birth certificate says "female"?
The men don’t care who uses the men’s room.
Not only is that completely wrong, it is not the point. If Trans-women are not women and should use the men's toilets then trans-men are not men and should use the women's toilets.
You cannot say that birth is biology and then claim it only applies to one group.
As to your earlier point, how many lads would be comfortable at the urinals whilst this person uses her "birth gender toilet"?
We are never "comfortable". If you have the equipment to use a urinal, then why not?
While the Graun includes the Badenoch/Tennant spat deep in its rolling coverage, there is no mention at all of it, still less any story on its election website front page.
It's on their main election news feed, and has been for mcuh of today. There is only so much space on the page itself.
"...The PA news agency have a bit more detail on the comments from David Tennant and Kemi Badenoch. Tennant won a prize for being a “celebrity ally” at the British LGBT awards last week and used his speech to target the equalities minister. Badenoch has faced criticism over her approach to trans rights.
Tennant said in his acceptance speech:
"...If I’m honest I’m a little depressed by the fact that acknowledging that everyone has the right to be who they want to be and live their life how they want to live it as long as they’re not hurting anyone else should merit any kind of special award or special mention, because it’s common sense, isn’t it? It is human decency. We shouldn’t live in a world where that is worth remarking on. However, until we wake up and Kemi Badenoch doesn’t exist any more – I don’t wish ill of her, I just wish her to shut up – whilst we do live in this world, I am honoured to receive this...”
In response to Tennant’s comments, Badenoch said:
"...I will not shut up. I will not be silenced by men who prioritise applause from Stonewall over the safety of women and girls. A rich, lefty, white male celebrity so blinded by ideology he can’t see the optics of attacking the only black woman in government by calling publicly for my existence to end. Tennant is one of Labour’s celebrity supporters. This is an early example of what life will be like if they win. Keir Starmer stood by while Rosie Duffield was hounded. He and his supporters will do the same with the country. Do not let the bigots and bullies win...”
"calling publicly for my existence to end".
Kemi Badenoch seems to have reckoned without the fact that we can read.
How would you interpret "until we wake up and Kemi Badenoch doesn't exist" in any way other than that this would be a good thing.
Which of the words in the phrase "I don't wish ill of her" is beyond your understanding?
Did you see the clip. He realised what he had said and tried to back-pedal. Weasel words, I believe is the phrase.
How ignominious your fall from cleverest PB contributor to the most evidently stupid.
Phone masts in urban areas should not have restrictions.
Sorry to make this point again but planning has come up and it's my area.
Yes, they should. You don't want them plonked in the middle of a school playing field, the flight path of an airport, or in a cemetery.
Come on. This anti-NIMBY stuff is starting to get a bit silly.
You don't need planning to deal with the former or the latter, the owners of the field or cemetery should determine what is appropriate with their own land. No need for NIMBYs to stick their oars in.
As for flight paths, flight safety is already dealt with separately under specific regulations, again no need for nosy neighbours to get involved.
So it's only the regulations that you personally don't like that should be ignored?
No, regulations should be set by the law, debated in Parliament.
Then people should be free to liberally do whatever they please within the law, without their neighbours having a say.
The origins of our legal system lie in creating a more peaceful way to resolve disputes than violent blood feuds. In a similar way, our planning system has to accommodate the reality that most people do care about what their neighbours do with their land.
Having some rules, and a process, around it helps to ameliorate frustration and bad feeling, and reduces the likelihood of a dispute leading to violence.
While I can respect that you hold this idealistic position that posits they people shouldn't care, do you not acknowledge the value of a planning system to deal with the reality that people do care?
No, Barty doesn't recognise their right to care.
They can care, bitch and moan all they please.
But if what is being developed is legal and by consenting adults on their own land it should be allowed and objections should have no say at all.
Just as if people object to a gay couple, or interracial couple, they should be allowed to care but not have the right to get involved and object to what consenting adults do on their own land.
There's a difference between what people do as an activity and what they do to change the environment.
Why is there?
If its their own land, what difference is there?
Do you oppose restrictions on noise pollution?
I think there should be legal restriction on noise and other pollution in land zoned for residential housing, and so long as whatever you're planning doesn't violate those noise or any other restrictions it should be perfectly legal.
If it does, there ought to be consequences, but you don't need NIMBYs or planning to deal with that.
There is a difference between letting anything happen and then acting if laws are broken (which appears to be your approach); and a planning system that stops something that is liable to break laws before it happens. I think it’s generally sensible to review plans before they happen, rather than to wait for problems to arise.
And I definitely do not.
The planning system is not the appropriate way to deal with noise pollution already.
If a pub with a new landlord in a residential area, of which there are quite reasonably many, decides to suddenly play excessively loud music disturbing the neighbours what will the planning system do about that? Precisely nothing.
What will the Police and EHO whose responsibility that is do about it? Plenty.
I don't think we will learn very much from tomorrow's by elections. There are Lab defences in Cumberland and Hackney, and an Ind defence in South Tyneside.
Unconfirmed as yet but numerous sources stating North Korean troops will officially be sent to Ukraine to fight alongside Russian troops in the zone of the SMO.
This comes after they signed strategic partnership treaty deepening military cooperation.
Oh no - here comes North Korea with all its might and resources! Run for the hills!
They've a militarised society, a massive army and lots of ballistic missiles. I think you'd be foolish to imagine this won't make a difference. Plus what has Russia promised NK?
If the North Korean Army went all-in to support Russia it might prolong the Russian war effort for 12-18 months, but at the cost of North Korea not being able to fight a conventional war on the Korean peninsula for at least the next decade.
They wouldn't make such a move except in trade for some serious nuclear and missile technology.
Who knows, right? Maybe they'll send a token force and some diggers.
Just I'd be very wary of NK. They've been preparing for war since their inception and there's a railway from NK to Donetsk.
Phone masts in urban areas should not have restrictions.
Sorry to make this point again but planning has come up and it's my area.
I've seen what mobile phone companies tried to do in the Dales - sorry but nope - the plans were utterly insane given that the only purpose of ruining the view was slightly improved reception on part of the M6.
Which reminds me of the time EE reorientated the masts around here and accidentally placed their third line support engineer for the emergency network in a no reception zone.
I did say URBAN areas.
But also, of course they should have coverage on the M6.
Frankly there should be nowhere where 4G/5G should not be available. If that means needing to disguise the masts then fine but your blanket "no" is ridiculous.
Is there any reason why single cubicle toilets are gender specific? (Where it’s not a bathroom, it’s just a row of toilets with a sign on the door saying male or female) - and the sinks are ‘outside’ for communal use
I’ve seen situations where there’s been one toilet for men and one toilet for women, and e.g. 3 women have needed the loo at the same time, and they’re queuing for the same one - even though functionally, the toilets are exactly the same?
While the Graun includes the Badenoch/Tennant spat deep in its rolling coverage, there is no mention at all of it, still less any story on its election website front page.
It's on their main election news feed, and has been for mcuh of today. There is only so much space on the page itself.
"...The PA news agency have a bit more detail on the comments from David Tennant and Kemi Badenoch. Tennant won a prize for being a “celebrity ally” at the British LGBT awards last week and used his speech to target the equalities minister. Badenoch has faced criticism over her approach to trans rights.
Tennant said in his acceptance speech:
"...If I’m honest I’m a little depressed by the fact that acknowledging that everyone has the right to be who they want to be and live their life how they want to live it as long as they’re not hurting anyone else should merit any kind of special award or special mention, because it’s common sense, isn’t it? It is human decency. We shouldn’t live in a world where that is worth remarking on. However, until we wake up and Kemi Badenoch doesn’t exist any more – I don’t wish ill of her, I just wish her to shut up – whilst we do live in this world, I am honoured to receive this...”
In response to Tennant’s comments, Badenoch said:
"...I will not shut up. I will not be silenced by men who prioritise applause from Stonewall over the safety of women and girls. A rich, lefty, white male celebrity so blinded by ideology he can’t see the optics of attacking the only black woman in government by calling publicly for my existence to end. Tennant is one of Labour’s celebrity supporters. This is an early example of what life will be like if they win. Keir Starmer stood by while Rosie Duffield was hounded. He and his supporters will do the same with the country. Do not let the bigots and bullies win...”
"calling publicly for my existence to end".
Kemi Badenoch seems to have reckoned without the fact that we can read.
>everyone has the right to be who they want to be and live their life how they want to live it as long as they’re not hurting anyone else
See the bit in bold. That's the point which this very male-dominated forum keeps on missing. Men who go into women's changing rooms and act as voyeurs (voyeurism is a crime, btw) making women feel uncomfortable and distressed - see the case of the nurses in Darlington - are not living their lives without hurting others.
They want to live their lives as they want regardless of whether or not they hurt others. In some cases, hurting women seems to be the aim. Why else would young masked men gather to shout abuse at women or hold up placards threatening violence against them.
That's the point which is missed and which, when raised on here or elsewhere, gets abuse or contemptuous dismissal, such as being told to shut up.
That's exactly the problem with this sort of rhetoric. It is tantamount to saying that trans women who are allowed to use women's changing rooms or loos are criminals.
It's the same as saying Muslims are terrorists, or Romanians are pickpockets, or gay men are paedophiles.
It's othering, pure and simple. And if you look at polling of women on this subject it gives the lie to the idea this is a battle between the sexes.
There have been enough instances of non-trans people (men!) installing peepholes or cameras in female bathrooms and spaces or even dressing up in rubber "woman" suits
Besides, what do we do with trans-men? Should this guy be told to use the ladies just because his birth certificate says "female"?
The men don’t care who uses the men’s room.
Not only is that completely wrong, it is not the point. If Trans-women are not women and should use the men's toilets then trans-men are not men and should use the women's toilets.
You cannot say that birth is biology and then claim it only applies to one group.
As to your earlier point, how many lads would be comfortable at the urinals whilst this person uses her "birth gender toilet"?
The complaints about bathrooms and changing rooms and prisons and shelters and sports days are not coming from men, the complaints are coming exclusively from women.
A bit of tightening, Lab under 40 again and reform slip back, keeps it interesting to a degree!
I wonder just how many Conservative seats Nige's Putin fanboyism has saved.
Dozens.
If you Baxter that poll, you get Con 115 seats.
If you take the +3% for Con and instead add it to Reform (so Con20%, Ref 18%) you get Con 72 seats.
So using the Electoral Calculus model you can take a guess that Farage's oopsie has saved the Conservatives 43 seats.
A big difference between fighting the Lib Dems for second place, vs the tories being the clear main opposition with a base to build back from. Not to mention the end of any 'reverse takeover' aspirations from Farage. A truly monumental gaffe from the Putin appeaser.
While the Graun includes the Badenoch/Tennant spat deep in its rolling coverage, there is no mention at all of it, still less any story on its election website front page.
It's on their main election news feed, and has been for mcuh of today. There is only so much space on the page itself.
"...The PA news agency have a bit more detail on the comments from David Tennant and Kemi Badenoch. Tennant won a prize for being a “celebrity ally” at the British LGBT awards last week and used his speech to target the equalities minister. Badenoch has faced criticism over her approach to trans rights.
Tennant said in his acceptance speech:
"...If I’m honest I’m a little depressed by the fact that acknowledging that everyone has the right to be who they want to be and live their life how they want to live it as long as they’re not hurting anyone else should merit any kind of special award or special mention, because it’s common sense, isn’t it? It is human decency. We shouldn’t live in a world where that is worth remarking on. However, until we wake up and Kemi Badenoch doesn’t exist any more – I don’t wish ill of her, I just wish her to shut up – whilst we do live in this world, I am honoured to receive this...”
In response to Tennant’s comments, Badenoch said:
"...I will not shut up. I will not be silenced by men who prioritise applause from Stonewall over the safety of women and girls. A rich, lefty, white male celebrity so blinded by ideology he can’t see the optics of attacking the only black woman in government by calling publicly for my existence to end. Tennant is one of Labour’s celebrity supporters. This is an early example of what life will be like if they win. Keir Starmer stood by while Rosie Duffield was hounded. He and his supporters will do the same with the country. Do not let the bigots and bullies win...”
"calling publicly for my existence to end".
Kemi Badenoch seems to have reckoned without the fact that we can read.
>everyone has the right to be who they want to be and live their life how they want to live it as long as they’re not hurting anyone else
See the bit in bold. That's the point which this very male-dominated forum keeps on missing. Men who go into women's changing rooms and act as voyeurs (voyeurism is a crime, btw) making women feel uncomfortable and distressed - see the case of the nurses in Darlington - are not living their lives without hurting others.
They want to live their lives as they want regardless of whether or not they hurt others. In some cases, hurting women seems to be the aim. Why else would young masked men gather to shout abuse at women or hold up placards threatening violence against them.
That's the point which is missed and which, when raised on here or elsewhere, gets abuse or contemptuous dismissal, such as being told to shut up.
That's exactly the problem with this sort of rhetoric. It is tantamount to saying that trans women who are allowed to use women's changing rooms or loos are criminals.
It's the same as saying Muslims are terrorists, or Romanians are pickpockets, or gay men are paedophiles.
It's othering, pure and simple. And if you look at polling of women on this subject it gives the lie to the idea this is a battle between the sexes.
There have been enough instances of non-trans people (men!) installing peepholes or cameras in female bathrooms and spaces or even dressing up in rubber "woman" suits
Besides, what do we do with trans-men? Should this guy be told to use the ladies just because his birth certificate says "female"?
The men don’t care who uses the men’s room.
Not only is that completely wrong, it is not the point. If Trans-women are not women and should use the men's toilets then trans-men are not men and should use the women's toilets.
You cannot say that birth is biology and then claim it only applies to one group.
As to your earlier point, how many lads would be comfortable at the urinals whilst this person uses her "birth gender toilet"?
The complaints about bathrooms and changing rooms and prisons and shelters and sports days are not coming from men, the complaints are coming exclusively from women.
I know that.
The point I am making is saying that forcing people into their "birth gender" toilet is not as simple an answer as many think.
Let us say that all trans-women get banned, then where do women like her "go"? How long would it be until she was attacked, assaulted or raped in a gents?
Or does she meet a "looks ok" standard? Is that how we judge? What do we do with masculine looking women? There are some really butch looking ladies that I have come across in the loos.
I want to be as safe as anyone else, but simple labelling and hysteria are not the answers.
While the Graun includes the Badenoch/Tennant spat deep in its rolling coverage, there is no mention at all of it, still less any story on its election website front page.
It's on their main election news feed, and has been for mcuh of today. There is only so much space on the page itself.
"...The PA news agency have a bit more detail on the comments from David Tennant and Kemi Badenoch. Tennant won a prize for being a “celebrity ally” at the British LGBT awards last week and used his speech to target the equalities minister. Badenoch has faced criticism over her approach to trans rights.
Tennant said in his acceptance speech:
"...If I’m honest I’m a little depressed by the fact that acknowledging that everyone has the right to be who they want to be and live their life how they want to live it as long as they’re not hurting anyone else should merit any kind of special award or special mention, because it’s common sense, isn’t it? It is human decency. We shouldn’t live in a world where that is worth remarking on. However, until we wake up and Kemi Badenoch doesn’t exist any more – I don’t wish ill of her, I just wish her to shut up – whilst we do live in this world, I am honoured to receive this...”
In response to Tennant’s comments, Badenoch said:
"...I will not shut up. I will not be silenced by men who prioritise applause from Stonewall over the safety of women and girls. A rich, lefty, white male celebrity so blinded by ideology he can’t see the optics of attacking the only black woman in government by calling publicly for my existence to end. Tennant is one of Labour’s celebrity supporters. This is an early example of what life will be like if they win. Keir Starmer stood by while Rosie Duffield was hounded. He and his supporters will do the same with the country. Do not let the bigots and bullies win...”
"calling publicly for my existence to end".
Kemi Badenoch seems to have reckoned without the fact that we can read.
>everyone has the right to be who they want to be and live their life how they want to live it as long as they’re not hurting anyone else
See the bit in bold. That's the point which this very male-dominated forum keeps on missing. Men who go into women's changing rooms and act as voyeurs (voyeurism is a crime, btw) making women feel uncomfortable and distressed - see the case of the nurses in Darlington - are not living their lives without hurting others.
They want to live their lives as they want regardless of whether or not they hurt others. In some cases, hurting women seems to be the aim. Why else would young masked men gather to shout abuse at women or hold up placards threatening violence against them.
That's the point which is missed and which, when raised on here or elsewhere, gets abuse or contemptuous dismissal, such as being told to shut up.
That's exactly the problem with this sort of rhetoric. It is tantamount to saying that trans women who are allowed to use women's changing rooms or loos are criminals.
It's the same as saying Muslims are terrorists, or Romanians are pickpockets, or gay men are paedophiles.
It's othering, pure and simple. And if you look at polling of women on this subject it gives the lie to the idea this is a battle between the sexes.
There have been enough instances of non-trans people (men!) installing peepholes or cameras in female bathrooms and spaces or even dressing up in rubber "woman" suits
Besides, what do we do with trans-men? Should this guy be told to use the ladies just because his birth certificate says "female"?
The men don’t care who uses the men’s room.
Not only is that completely wrong, it is not the point. If Trans-women are not women and should use the men's toilets then trans-men are not men and should use the women's toilets.
You cannot say that birth is biology and then claim it only applies to one group.
As to your earlier point, how many lads would be comfortable at the urinals whilst this person uses her "birth gender toilet"?
I couldn't give less of a shit if any woman uses the men's bathroom.
Plenty do to skip the queues which are often insane for the ladies but nowhere near as bad in the men's (thanks to our availability of urinals).
Labour to bring in automatic voter registration under plans to boost franchise
Labour is planning to introduce automatic registration for voting under plans to add millions more people to the electoral roll for future elections, especially young people, the Guardian has learned.
Starmer is not going to waste any opportunity to put finger on the scales once he gets power. Where as the Tories spent 14 years not really gaining a massive advantage of the much watered down redrawing constituencies (remember the more radical proposal originally was far fewer seats) and the voter id stuff which is nothing like the gerrymandering type stuff in the US.
I can see a scandal coming of people being auto registered who end up not being eligible.
I'd imagine that the Telegraph will be looking.
Do you think any future government would be able to row back on it though? Assuming the big change would be if constituencies were redrawn on auto-registration, it would surely be quite a challenge politically, to remove millions of people from the electoral roll who actually exist.
I'm beginning to Simon Hoare could be in trouble in my North Dorset constituency, a top 10 Tory safe seat.
Why?
1. In the locals the wards which make up this seat voted 47.9% Con, 37.8% LD, others 14.3% on a turnout of 33.25%. There were no Reform candidates and just 3 UKIP candidates across the 19 seats. 2. Since the locals nationally there has been a swing of 4% Con to LD (basically the Tories dropping from 28% to 20%). 3. North Dorset has Reform, UKIP and SDP standing alongside C, L, LD and Green. 4. Labour are doing nothing in the constituency, they have an outside candidate, no leaflets yet, no signs, nothing. 5. Orange diamonds are sprouting up everywhere; I've still yet to see any signs for any other party. Yes anecdotal, I know but it's never been like this before. 6. The LD candidate is a well-known local man. 7. Simon Hoare is a decent one-nation Tory but hardly a mover or a shaker, and his one-nation-ness will count against him with some on the right.
It will be interesting to see how the North Korean troops react to being in Russia/Russian controlled Ukraine. Few of them would have been able to dream of leaving NK before. Comparatively it's the free world.
You don't have to be a Putin fan to accept that no one is going to evict him from the six counties oblasts (five in Ukraine plus Transdinistra) any time soon and an armistice with partition, then support to make it stick a la South Korea is better than continuing the slaughter and risking it escalating further, and being of the view that interfering in other countries affairs on sanctimonious moral grounds often disguising vested interests (Ukraine 2014, Libya 2011, Iraq 2003, Afghanistan 2003-2022, Iran 1953 ends up causing far worse problems than the ones they were intended to resolve.
Remember: invading is usually the easy part.
And it's the occupation that usually kills you.
Those Oblasts will be a constant resource drain on the Russian economy, in terms of men and material, and they will produce bugger all tax revenue.
And all the time, Russia will grow economically weaker. It is utterly dependent on energy exports, and it has completely fucked itself.
And it is hard to consider but Putin will die. He might be like my dad and think he won't, but he will. And the world will be a better place.
A famous employment tribunal case established that it is quite legal to be rude to scousers on the grounds that regional accents and identities are not protected characteristics.
Analysis of Greek prehistoric combat in full body armour based on physiological principles: A series of studies using thematic analysis, human experiments, and numerical simulations
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0301494 One of the oldest complete suits of European armour was discovered in 1960 near the village of Dendra, in Southern Greece, but it remained unknown whether this armour was suitable for extended use in battle or was purely ceremonial. This had limited our understanding of the ancient Greek–Late Bronze Age–warfare and its consequences that have underpinned the social transformations of prehistoric Europe and Eastern Mediterranean. In a series of archeo-physiological studies, merging knowledge in archaeology, history, human physiology, and numerical simulation, we provide supporting evidence that the Mycenaean armour found at Dendra was entirely compatible with use in extended combat, and we provide a free software enabling simulation of Late Bronze Age warfare. A group of special armed-forces personnel wearing a replica of the Dendra armour were able to complete an 11-hour simulated Late Bronze Age combat protocol that we developed from a series of studies based on the available evidence. Numerical simulation of the thermal exchanges in Late Bronze Age warfare extended this conclusion across different environmental conditions and fighting intensities. Our results support the notion that the Mycenaeans had such a powerful impact in Eastern Mediterranean at least partly as a result of their armour technology…
… As no historical accounts or descriptions survive from the Greek Late Bronze Age regarding the scope and use of armour of the Dendra type, we turned to a key–and only–detailed early account of warfare, battle, and single combat: Homer’s epic account of 10 days in the Trojan War, the Iliad. …
Financing local Government is one of those issues which nobody, if they've got any sense, wants to go anywhere near. The fact we are dealing with a hastily imposed settlement brought in as a result of the overthrow of Margaret Thatcher speaks volumes.
30+ years on and the consequences of that stupidity are clear. We have a banding system which bears little or no resemblance to the value of the properties to which it relates and the main reason for its creation - to allow local authorities to fund themselves without having to rely on central Government largesse - has also failed to be addressed.
In some authorites, up to two thirds of expenditure is on the provision of care for vulnerable adults and children as well on children with Special Education Needs (SEN). SEN referrals have increased exponentially since the end of lockdown but the provision of suitable teaching accommodation and the supply of qualified teachers has not. The funding of transport for SEN children is a particular area of concern with many authorities cutting it for children over sixteen.
The central question is what do you want local councils to do? In theory, adult social care could be taken out of local authority control and run by a national care agency which would ensure adequate levels of residential care, specialist (including dementia) care and domiciliary care across the country based on the maxim the older population should be treated with respect and dignity and the care offer should provide that. At the same time, the agency should be promoting in-family care where possible and acting as a positive help for carers of all ages and types. Caring should be viewed as a vital part of family life and carers should be encouraged as much as possible (employers hsould be given huge tax breaks to employ carers).
How do you fund the rest of local Government? With the pressure off in terms of care, other functions can be looked at - we need local community hubs where a range of services and advice are available and very often just a place for the lonely and the alone to go and meet other people. This needs to be a 24 hour a day, seven day a week service provision - the message being if you're lonely, you don't have to be alone.
How this society deals with the alone and the lonely is reprehensible and a shame to us all. Sport, for example, should be leading on this getting people out and about providing free or discounted admission so those who have no social life can have the opportunity to live a little.
Back to funding? @Sandpit rails against property taxation and the truth is there is no fair form of local Government funding. The truth is those with high value properties are doing very well out of the current system and any changes will disadvantage them (and they will whinge) and benefit the providers of Council Tax software (who won't).
Easy. Abolish local government. Everything gets run from the centre and everyone gets the same. Massive efficiencies are made.
The cherry on the top is killing off local politics, so that local busybodies never get any power.
As I'm sure your tongue is firmly in your cheek, let's play.
You'd have a National Refuse Collection Service presumably, a National Library Service, a National Fire Service, a National Police Service, a National Street Cleaning Service and a National Parking Management Agency and bring all locally-owned land and property assets under the Property Services Agency.
Can't quite see these efficiency savings.
No doubt somebody will pipe up about getting Planning abolished except for "national guidelines" - let's define those guidelines, shall we? Let's allow huge overdevelopment in one area and no development in another. Can you imagine recruiting the hundreds of civil servants required to adopt the National Plan - they could be recruited from all the local Planning departments perhaps?
It sounds rather like the creation of ICL (by Tony Benn IIRC???) were the govt of the day "raided" various IT dept.s up and down the country and produced the "British IBM". The main problem was that many of the "recruits" were not the finest members of their respective organisations who knew a good clearing out opportunity when they saw one...
ICL did some good stuff, but there was always a slightly "naff" feel to their kit.
Hmm. ICL became Fujitsu Systems iirc.
But imo they suffered most from being a political plaything.
While the Graun includes the Badenoch/Tennant spat deep in its rolling coverage, there is no mention at all of it, still less any story on its election website front page.
It's on their main election news feed, and has been for mcuh of today. There is only so much space on the page itself.
"...The PA news agency have a bit more detail on the comments from David Tennant and Kemi Badenoch. Tennant won a prize for being a “celebrity ally” at the British LGBT awards last week and used his speech to target the equalities minister. Badenoch has faced criticism over her approach to trans rights.
Tennant said in his acceptance speech:
"...If I’m honest I’m a little depressed by the fact that acknowledging that everyone has the right to be who they want to be and live their life how they want to live it as long as they’re not hurting anyone else should merit any kind of special award or special mention, because it’s common sense, isn’t it? It is human decency. We shouldn’t live in a world where that is worth remarking on. However, until we wake up and Kemi Badenoch doesn’t exist any more – I don’t wish ill of her, I just wish her to shut up – whilst we do live in this world, I am honoured to receive this...”
In response to Tennant’s comments, Badenoch said:
"...I will not shut up. I will not be silenced by men who prioritise applause from Stonewall over the safety of women and girls. A rich, lefty, white male celebrity so blinded by ideology he can’t see the optics of attacking the only black woman in government by calling publicly for my existence to end. Tennant is one of Labour’s celebrity supporters. This is an early example of what life will be like if they win. Keir Starmer stood by while Rosie Duffield was hounded. He and his supporters will do the same with the country. Do not let the bigots and bullies win...”
"calling publicly for my existence to end".
Kemi Badenoch seems to have reckoned without the fact that we can read.
>everyone has the right to be who they want to be and live their life how they want to live it as long as they’re not hurting anyone else
See the bit in bold. That's the point which this very male-dominated forum keeps on missing. Men who go into women's changing rooms and act as voyeurs (voyeurism is a crime, btw) making women feel uncomfortable and distressed - see the case of the nurses in Darlington - are not living their lives without hurting others.
They want to live their lives as they want regardless of whether or not they hurt others. In some cases, hurting women seems to be the aim. Why else would young masked men gather to shout abuse at women or hold up placards threatening violence against them.
That's the point which is missed and which, when raised on here or elsewhere, gets abuse or contemptuous dismissal, such as being told to shut up.
That's exactly the problem with this sort of rhetoric. It is tantamount to saying that trans women who are allowed to use women's changing rooms or loos are criminals.
It's the same as saying Muslims are terrorists, or Romanians are pickpockets, or gay men are paedophiles.
It's othering, pure and simple. And if you look at polling of women on this subject it gives the lie to the idea this is a battle between the sexes.
There have been enough instances of non-trans people (men!) installing peepholes or cameras in female bathrooms and spaces or even dressing up in rubber "woman" suits
Besides, what do we do with trans-men? Should this guy be told to use the ladies just because his birth certificate says "female"?
The men don’t care who uses the men’s room.
Not only is that completely wrong, it is not the point. If Trans-women are not women and should use the men's toilets then trans-men are not men and should use the women's toilets.
You cannot say that birth is biology and then claim it only applies to one group.
As to your earlier point, how many lads would be comfortable at the urinals whilst this person uses her "birth gender toilet"?
The complaints about bathrooms and changing rooms and prisons and shelters and sports days are not coming from men, the complaints are coming exclusively from women.
Some women. Not even a majority. Most of us have no problem if trans women prefer to use ‘our’ spaces, especially as I’m sure they feel safer.
As ever, a strident minority who shout loudest seem to think they represent the majority. Well they don’t.
A quick look at the state of the LLG vs RefCon combined votes in the most recent I can see online, and it's remarkable how little has changed since before the campaign started. All the noise has been between Con and Ref, and between the 3 centre-left parties.
More in Common: 56:37 Norstat: 57:38 Ipsos: 60:34 WeThink: 59:36 JLP: 57:40 (JLP always the highest scoring for the right) Survation: 58:32 (that's the lowest for the right) R&W: 60:37
So a range of only 4 points between highest and lowest LLP, and 8 between highest and lowest RefCon
A bit of tightening, Lab under 40 again and reform slip back, keeps it interesting to a degree!
We have accumulating evidence of Reform losing support due to Farage's Russian apologia.
How can we know what it is due to? It could be his Putinphilia but it could just as easily be reversion to trend after a publicity induced bounce.
Yes, we do tend to over-scribe poll movements to specific events, but I think in this case the change is large enough, the timing fits well enough, and the story was big enough, that it's reasonable enough to make the connection.
After all, it was a prime-time TV interview in which he made the comments, so it doesn't really fit with a reversion to the mean after losing media attention.
Comments
See also correct horse battery staple
We are told to knock. (Also, not to make derogatory comments in earshot about the number or state of their garden gnomes...)
On which subject, saw my second Reform poster today. The property had the most ginormous garden gnome by the poster.
I christened it Nige the Gnome. Silently, of course.
Lab 34%
Con 29%
LD 20%
Ref 9%
Grn 6%
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1385889/Joel-Hardman-wore-female-rubber-mask-wig-spy-women-public-toilets.html
Besides, what do we do with trans-men? Should this guy be told to use the ladies just because his birth certificate says "female"?
26% would be about 11,000 votes.
https://www.economist.com/interactive/uk-general-election/forecast
Yet Switzerland is one of the most prosperous, contented countries in the world.
Maybe it is its lack of "leaders" which contributes to this?
However this won't happen. It is more likely labour will get +-500 seats than +- 320.
LDs well down as I am expecting outside the south west of the capital where I think they will do well.
Assuming this MRP has taken hyper-local events into account.
Doh - got it.
You are right on the risk of error though. We are only a small polling error, plus a little bit of standard homeward bound swingback in the last week at the expense of Reform, away from a score closer to 200 than 100 seats.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cydkTy6GmFA
They wouldn't make such a move except in trade for some serious nuclear and missile technology.
Westminster Voting Intention
Con 23% (+3%)
Lab 39% (-1%)
Lib Dem 12% (NC)
Reform UK 15% (-4%)
Green 6% (+1%)
Sample size 2,025
Changes since June 17-19
https://x.com/NorstatUKPolls/status/1805990041078112744?s=19
A bit of tightening, Lab under 40 again and reform slip back, keeps it interesting to a degree!
"🚨 NEW: George Galloway claims he trusts Vladimir Putin more than Keir Starmer, Joe Biden or Donald Trump"
https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1805968682557853942
That must have smarted.
Guildford - Labour gain?
and one for @MarqueeMark South Devon - Lib Dem gain?
There's the wipeout scenarios then this which is about 1 to 2% swing from a 97 result
(a) Make the stalls reach the floor
and
(b) Make them non-gender specific
That's increasingly the way in the US, and I must admit I'm a big fan.
Labour is planning to introduce automatic registration for voting under plans to add millions more people to the electoral roll for future elections, especially young people, the Guardian has learned.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/26/labour-automatic-voter-registration-reform-plans
Starmer is not going to waste any opportunity to put finger on the scales once he gets power. Where as the Tories spent 14 years not really gaining a massive advantage of the much watered down redrawing constituencies (remember the more radical proposal originally was far fewer seats) and the voter id stuff which is nothing like the gerrymandering type stuff in the US.
I can see a scandal coming of people being auto registered who end up not being eligible.
Norstat are currently the only pollster to have the Tories up since their first campaign poll
You cannot say that birth is biology and then claim it only applies to one group.
As to your earlier point, how many lads would be comfortable at the urinals whilst this person uses her "birth gender toilet"?
https://x.com/WeRHelloKitty/status/1805969137006505985
Men are willing to make worse deposits in work loos.
The future isn't certain, and we have an opportunity for a great victory for democracy over tyranny.
And it's the occupation that usually kills you.
Those Oblasts will be a constant resource drain on the Russian economy, in terms of men and material, and they will produce bugger all tax revenue.
And all the time, Russia will grow economically weaker. It is utterly dependent on energy exports, and it has completely fucked itself.
That’s why the conversation is framed around women.
How ignominious your fall from cleverest PB contributor to the most evidently stupid.
🔴 LAB 40% (-1)
🔵 CON 23% (-2)
🟣 REF UK 14% (-1)
🟠 LIB DEM 11% (+1)
🟢 GREEN 5% (-)
🟡 SNP 3% (+1)
N 3,420 | 24-26/6 | Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin…
The planning system is not the appropriate way to deal with noise pollution already.
If a pub with a new landlord in a residential area, of which there are quite reasonably many, decides to suddenly play excessively loud music disturbing the neighbours what will the planning system do about that? Precisely nothing.
What will the Police and EHO whose responsibility that is do about it? Plenty.
"🆕
@Moreincommon_
@TheNewsAgents
voting intention - our lowest ever vote share for the Tories. Labour lead by 17.
🔴 LAB 40% (-1)
🔵 CON 23% (-2)
🟣 REF UK 14% (-1)
🟠 LIB DEM 11% (+1)
🟢 GREEN 5% (-)
🟡 SNP 3% (+1)
N 3,420 | 24-26/6 | Tables: https://moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/voting-intention/"
https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805994505482510521
Too many polls. Far far too many
Just I'd be very wary of NK. They've been preparing for war since their inception and there's a railway from NK to Donetsk.
🚨Exclusive: Bombshell MRP poll shows Tories pushed into third place behind Lib Dems in election bloodbath
20 Cabinet ministers projected to lose seats including Rishi Sunak
https://x.com/johnestevens/status/1805994429540651250
But also, of course they should have coverage on the M6.
Frankly there should be nowhere where 4G/5G should not be available. If that means needing to disguise the masts then fine but your blanket "no" is ridiculous.
Is there any reason why single cubicle toilets are gender specific? (Where it’s not a bathroom, it’s just a row of toilets with a sign on the door saying male or female) - and the sinks are ‘outside’ for communal use
I’ve seen situations where there’s been one toilet for men and one toilet for women, and e.g. 3 women have needed the loo at the same time, and they’re queuing for the same one - even though functionally, the toilets are exactly the same?
If you take the +3% for Con and instead add it to Reform (so Con20%, Ref 18%) you get Con 72 seats.
So using the Electoral Calculus model you can take a guess that Farage's oopsie has saved the Conservatives 43 seats.
A big difference between fighting the Lib Dems for second place, vs the tories being the clear main opposition with a base to build back from. Not to mention the end of any 'reverse takeover' aspirations from Farage. A truly monumental gaffe from the Putin appeaser.
BREAKING
North Korea to send troops to Ukraine within a month - Kyiv post
According to a signed defense pact, both countries will support each other in case of war
https://x.com/IranObserver0/status/1805987394312900758
An opportune moment for Seoul to start lobbing missiles over Pyongyang and into the sea.
My prediction was 29%.
Um.
The point I am making is saying that forcing people into their "birth gender" toilet is not as simple an answer as many think.
Let us say that all trans-women get banned, then where do women like her "go"? How long would it be until she was attacked, assaulted or raped in a gents?
Or does she meet a "looks ok" standard? Is that how we judge? What do we do with masculine looking women? There are some really butch looking ladies that I have come across in the loos.
I want to be as safe as anyone else, but simple labelling and hysteria are not the answers.
Very prominent British Bangladeshi community leader reaches out to say the community is ‘seething’ with Keir Starmer and demanding an apology.
They say he should be ‘ashamed’ and ‘a PM in waiting should never attack minority communities’.
LIB DEM 71
CONS 60
SNP 24
REFUK 18 (!)
GREEN 4
PC 4
MRP by Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus
Plenty do to skip the queues which are often insane for the ladies but nowhere near as bad in the men's (thanks to our availability of urinals).
Men using the ladies is a different matter.
Do you think any future government would be able to row back on it though? Assuming the big change would be if constituencies were redrawn on auto-registration, it would surely be quite a challenge politically, to remove millions of people from the electoral roll who actually exist.
Why?
1. In the locals the wards which make up this seat voted 47.9% Con, 37.8% LD, others 14.3% on a turnout of 33.25%. There were no Reform candidates and just 3 UKIP candidates across the 19 seats.
2. Since the locals nationally there has been a swing of 4% Con to LD (basically the Tories dropping from 28% to 20%).
3. North Dorset has Reform, UKIP and SDP standing alongside C, L, LD and Green.
4. Labour are doing nothing in the constituency, they have an outside candidate, no leaflets yet, no signs, nothing.
5. Orange diamonds are sprouting up everywhere; I've still yet to see any signs for any other party. Yes anecdotal, I know but it's never been like this before.
6. The LD candidate is a well-known local man.
7. Simon Hoare is a decent one-nation Tory but hardly a mover or a shaker, and his one-nation-ness will count against him with some on the right.
DYOR obviously but it could be close.
JLP - 25
MiC, Norstat - 23
WeThink - 22
Savanta, Verian, Focaldata - 21
Opinium - 20
The rest 18 or 19
NEW THREAD
Analysis of Greek prehistoric combat in full body armour based on physiological principles: A series of studies using thematic analysis, human experiments, and numerical simulations
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0301494
One of the oldest complete suits of European armour was discovered in 1960 near the village of Dendra, in Southern Greece, but it remained unknown whether this armour was suitable for extended use in battle or was purely ceremonial. This had limited our understanding of the ancient Greek–Late Bronze Age–warfare and its consequences that have underpinned the social transformations of prehistoric Europe and Eastern Mediterranean. In a series of archeo-physiological studies, merging knowledge in archaeology, history, human physiology, and numerical simulation, we provide supporting evidence that the Mycenaean armour found at Dendra was entirely compatible with use in extended combat, and we provide a free software enabling simulation of Late Bronze Age warfare. A group of special armed-forces personnel wearing a replica of the Dendra armour were able to complete an 11-hour simulated Late Bronze Age combat protocol that we developed from a series of studies based on the available evidence. Numerical simulation of the thermal exchanges in Late Bronze Age warfare extended this conclusion across different environmental conditions and fighting intensities. Our results support the notion that the Mycenaeans had such a powerful impact in Eastern Mediterranean at least partly as a result of their armour technology…
… As no historical accounts or descriptions survive from the Greek Late Bronze Age regarding the scope and use of armour of the Dendra type, we turned to a key–and only–detailed early account of warfare, battle, and single combat: Homer’s epic account of 10 days in the Trojan War, the Iliad. …
But imo they suffered most from being a political plaything.
NEW THREAD
As ever, a strident minority who shout loudest seem to think they represent the majority. Well they don’t.
Let’s move on from this. It’s petty.
More in Common: 56:37
Norstat: 57:38
Ipsos: 60:34
WeThink: 59:36
JLP: 57:40 (JLP always the highest scoring for the right)
Survation: 58:32 (that's the lowest for the right)
R&W: 60:37
So a range of only 4 points between highest and lowest LLP, and 8 between highest and lowest RefCon
After all, it was a prime-time TV interview in which he made the comments, so it doesn't really fit with a reversion to the mean after losing media attention.