I wonder what first attracted this chap to Nigel Farage?
Reform candidate Leslie Lilley said he would ‘slaughter migrants’
The 70-year-old conspiracy theorist who is likely to reap 20 per cent of the vote in Southend East & Rochford is Facebook friends with the fascist leader Gary Raikes
A Reform candidate said he would “slaughter” migrants arriving on small boats and “have their family taken out”.
Leslie Lilley, who is set to win almost 20 per cent of the vote in the Labour battleground seat of Southend East & Rochford, made the threats on the official Facebook account he uses to run his local campaign.
In a post in June 2020, Lilley reacted to the news of a small boat arriving in Dover saying: “I hope I’m near one of these scumbags one day I won’t run away I’ll slaughter them then have their family taken out.”
The same month, Lilley, now 70, railed against “more scum entering the UK”, adding “I hope your family get Robbed, Beaten or attacked”.
He also suggested Border Force vessels should have razor wire to tear small boats carrying migrants across the Channel, and commented “gas” along with several laughing emojis under a video of Muslims praying.
Lilley, who has also argued that the pandemic was a plan to “depopulate the world” and was “mass murder by government”, is one of the 41 Reform UK candidates who are “friends” on Facebook with Gary Raikes, the fascist leader.
I seriously think I’m going to set up a UK political vetting company.
I am really worried about this Country, worried about the amount of people who are willing to vote for Farage's bunch of crackpots and racists, even after hearing views like this, and particularly worried about 2029, when Farage and his like could be very near the levers of power, I really hope the Tory party gets it act in gear, and as Big G said, become a one nation conservative party again, but I fear the worst
I wonder what first attracted this chap to Nigel Farage?
Reform candidate Leslie Lilley said he would ‘slaughter migrants’
The 70-year-old conspiracy theorist who is likely to reap 20 per cent of the vote in Southend East & Rochford is Facebook friends with the fascist leader Gary Raikes
A Reform candidate said he would “slaughter” migrants arriving on small boats and “have their family taken out”.
Leslie Lilley, who is set to win almost 20 per cent of the vote in the Labour battleground seat of Southend East & Rochford, made the threats on the official Facebook account he uses to run his local campaign.
In a post in June 2020, Lilley reacted to the news of a small boat arriving in Dover saying: “I hope I’m near one of these scumbags one day I won’t run away I’ll slaughter them then have their family taken out.”
The same month, Lilley, now 70, railed against “more scum entering the UK”, adding “I hope your family get Robbed, Beaten or attacked”.
He also suggested Border Force vessels should have razor wire to tear small boats carrying migrants across the Channel, and commented “gas” along with several laughing emojis under a video of Muslims praying.
Lilley, who has also argued that the pandemic was a plan to “depopulate the world” and was “mass murder by government”, is one of the 41 Reform UK candidates who are “friends” on Facebook with Gary Raikes, the fascist leader.
I seriously think I’m going to set up a UK political vetting company.
I don't know. Perhaps the people the vetting company flagged up were worse? Perhaps they were asked to approve the least objectionable possible candidate in each constituency, and RFM would have struggled to find 100 candidates nationwide who would have survived scrutiny?
Financing local Government is one of those issues which nobody, if they've got any sense, wants to go anywhere near. The fact we are dealing with a hastily imposed settlement brought in as a result of the overthrow of Margaret Thatcher speaks volumes.
30+ years on and the consequences of that stupidity are clear. We have a banding system which bears little or no resemblance to the value of the properties to which it relates and the main reason for its creation - to allow local authorities to fund themselves without having to rely on central Government largesse - has also failed to be addressed.
In some authorites, up to two thirds of expenditure is on the provision of care for vulnerable adults and children as well on children with Special Education Needs (SEN). SEN referrals have increased exponentially since the end of lockdown but the provision of suitable teaching accommodation and the supply of qualified teachers has not. The funding of transport for SEN children is a particular area of concern with many authorities cutting it for children over sixteen.
The central question is what do you want local councils to do? In theory, adult social care could be taken out of local authority control and run by a national care agency which would ensure adequate levels of residential care, specialist (including dementia) care and domiciliary care across the country based on the maxim the older population should be treated with respect and dignity and the care offer should provide that. At the same time, the agency should be promoting in-family care where possible and acting as a positive help for carers of all ages and types. Caring should be viewed as a vital part of family life and carers should be encouraged as much as possible (employers hsould be given huge tax breaks to employ carers).
How do you fund the rest of local Government? With the pressure off in terms of care, other functions can be looked at - we need local community hubs where a range of services and advice are available and very often just a place for the lonely and the alone to go and meet other people. This needs to be a 24 hour a day, seven day a week service provision - the message being if you're lonely, you don't have to be alone.
How this society deals with the alone and the lonely is reprehensible and a shame to us all. Sport, for example, should be leading on this getting people out and about providing free or discounted admission so those who have no social life can have the opportunity to live a little.
Back to funding? @Sandpit rails against property taxation and the truth is there is no fair form of local Government funding. The truth is those with high value properties are doing very well out of the current system and any changes will disadvantage them (and they will whinge) and benefit the providers of Council Tax software (who won't).
I’ll disagree with ‘rails against’, but the point remains, that any property taxation based on an absolute, rather than relative to the local area, value of property, will create way more problems than it solves, make living in London even more expensive than it is now for the lower-paid, and make local authories even more dependent than they are already on central government. Meanwhile, the old Alastair Meeks attitude, that the rest of the country is being supported by London so they can all go eat dirt when it comes to spending, becomes even more prevalent.
Why shouldn't local council funding come from central government?
Local council expenditure overwhelmingly comes from central government diktats already.
Picture of the day, taken from the LGA (with a title page I disagree with for what its worth).
Where does every £1 in local spending go? Public health and Adult social care - 46p - Why not the Department of Health and Social Care? Children's Social Care - 22p - Why not the Department of Health and Social Care, or Department of Education? Environmental and regulatory services - 10p - Again national regulations, so why not national expenditure? Highways and Transport services - 4p - Since fuel duty and other taxes goes to HMRC, HMRC absolutely should be paying for this out of that revenue! Housing (4p) and planning (2p) - should be national too. Set the law, then let people do as they please.
Not sure what central and other (7p) covers. If its the cost of keeping this level of bureaucracy going, then bin it and save the money!
What's truly local? Culture (4p) maybe, although we do have a culture department and the Lottery etc for helping fund that too.
Just get rid of the bureaucrats. People always say what can you cut, here's an entire level of things that can be abolished entirely.
We could formalise the corruption in planning - pay the council directly to buy planning permission, rather than some dodgy officer. That would be lucrative - and ensure many more houses get built.
(The word on the street is that planning can be acquired for most things for a sum not unadjacent to £45k. Using the right fixer...)
[snip] Everything anyone wants to build should be waved through.
*Applauds.*
I don't agree, but I love mad and uncompromising certainty on an extreme position.
We established a few days ago that @BartholomewRoberts doesn't actually mean it. He is assuming that people won't decide to build things that he doesn't like.
What are you talking about? I never said that!
If someone builds something I don't like, that's none of my bloody business is my position.
You get awfully upset about cycle lanes though. And LTNs.
No I don't, you must be confusing me with someone else.
I've said repeatedly I wholeheartedly support investing in building more cycle lanes and more roads.
And that building more new roads with cycle tracks enables converting pre-existing ones to have cycle tracks and be an LTN by alleviating the through traffic away from that road and onto the new one.
No wonder you're confused if you don't know who is who - I have never once objected to cycle tracks. I use the local cycle track to ride with my kids to take them to the local park.
Always conditional on new roads. You're at least as bad as a NIMBY who insists on basic sanitation.
Why is that bad?
Investment should include new stuff, yes.
What's wrong with saying when we invest we should build new stuff. That's kind of the point!
Are new cycle lanes any of "your bloody business"?
No.
For the umpteenth time, I have no objection to new cycle lanes and new roads getting built. I support it.
How about just a cycle lane?
Its more practical typically to build a cycle lane with a new road, but if its eg building one parallel to an existing road eating into its embankment that can be a good idea too.
No objections to any of that. I've never once objected to a cycle lane, I just believe the practical way to do it is to build lanes and roads simultaneously.
I'm talking about losing a lane of traffic or parking to make way for a cycle lane.
It's "NIMBY SCUM" who are the main obstacle to improved cycling provision across the UK. I'm glad to have your energy and commitment on our side.
While the Graun includes the Badenoch/Tennant spat deep in its rolling coverage, there is no mention at all of it, still less any story on its election website front page.
It's on their main election news feed, and has been for mcuh of today. There is only so much space on the page itself.
"...The PA news agency have a bit more detail on the comments from David Tennant and Kemi Badenoch. Tennant won a prize for being a “celebrity ally” at the British LGBT awards last week and used his speech to target the equalities minister. Badenoch has faced criticism over her approach to trans rights.
Tennant said in his acceptance speech:
"...If I’m honest I’m a little depressed by the fact that acknowledging that everyone has the right to be who they want to be and live their life how they want to live it as long as they’re not hurting anyone else should merit any kind of special award or special mention, because it’s common sense, isn’t it? It is human decency. We shouldn’t live in a world where that is worth remarking on. However, until we wake up and Kemi Badenoch doesn’t exist any more – I don’t wish ill of her, I just wish her to shut up – whilst we do live in this world, I am honoured to receive this...”
In response to Tennant’s comments, Badenoch said:
"...I will not shut up. I will not be silenced by men who prioritise applause from Stonewall over the safety of women and girls. A rich, lefty, white male celebrity so blinded by ideology he can’t see the optics of attacking the only black woman in government by calling publicly for my existence to end. Tennant is one of Labour’s celebrity supporters. This is an early example of what life will be like if they win. Keir Starmer stood by while Rosie Duffield was hounded. He and his supporters will do the same with the country. Do not let the bigots and bullies win...”
Just reading this: getting uncanny vibes of similarity with this election (presumably complete with the equivalent of simulated dog turds in the grass):
'“It’s weird that this genre not only exists, but is so popular,” explains Krist Duro, editor-in-chief of Duuro Plays, a video game reviews website based in Albania – and the first person I could find who has actually played and somewhat enjoyed Lawn Mowing Simulator. “But you need to be wired in a particular way. I like repetitive tasks because they allow me to enter into a zen-like state. But the actual simulation part needs to be good.”'
My son likes a pressure washing game. Helps him relax after school. It's called PowerWash Simulator (on Steam). Leaves me baffled but then I've always been more a first-person shooter kind of guy...
Goodwin thinks Reform may have been damaged by Farage's Ukraine comments which is significant coming from him.
It does play into the idea that Farage is most comfortable hanging around with the bad boys.
He’s spent too much time in the US, and really didn’t realise that the Overton Window is quite different on this subject in the two countries. Now he’s been called on it, he has little choice but to double down. A whole load of former Conservative protest voters (of whom I might be one) would be totally horrified by this stance in the UK.
Shy Tories. People who lie who they vote for. The do not knows. We know The Tories are very unpopular. Agreed. 50 to 70 seats for them. No. Don't bet on that!
[snip] Everything anyone wants to build should be waved through.
*Applauds.*
I don't agree, but I love mad and uncompromising certainty on an extreme position.
We established a few days ago that @BartholomewRoberts doesn't actually mean it. He is assuming that people won't decide to build things that he doesn't like.
What are you talking about? I never said that!
If someone builds something I don't like, that's none of my bloody business is my position.
You said that you wouldn't want someone to build a balcony directly perpendicular to your garden, therefore you don't really think they should be able to build anything they want on their land.
I never said that. You tried (repeatedly) to get me to say that, but what I actually (repeatedly) said is whatever they want to do with their land should be up to them and if its on their land I have no objection whatsoever.
You did. When you eventually understood what kind of development I was proposing, you said you wouldn't be happy with it.
No, I said it would be their choice in my system.
And I literally said in my system if they did that I'd be free to do the same. Or extend the property so their balcony gets a view of a brick wall.
People should be free to do what they please, within the law, on their own land. Neighbours should mind their own f***ing business.
No restrictions against doing this?
Your picture has the balcony going into my land, so yes that would be problematic.
Set it back so its purely in their land and no I couldn't give less of a shit.
I can already see the entirety of my neighbours gardens from my window anyway. What difference does it make?
I always find the "overlooking my garden" objections in planning disputes bizarre, especially around here. We're on terraces. Everyone's house looks into everyone else's garden and into the houses opposite. Quite why being overlooked from an extension or a set of new build flats is more intrusive than what's already here is a mystery.
There have been several applications for flats in the mews behind us, some of which would "loom" (not my words) over our and neighbours' gardens. Every time they are objected to, no matter how reasonable the application. I risk being ostracised every time I so much as demur on the basis I am perfectly happy with the development and we need new housing.
[snip] Everything anyone wants to build should be waved through.
*Applauds.*
I don't agree, but I love mad and uncompromising certainty on an extreme position.
We established a few days ago that @BartholomewRoberts doesn't actually mean it. He is assuming that people won't decide to build things that he doesn't like.
What are you talking about? I never said that!
If someone builds something I don't like, that's none of my bloody business is my position.
You get awfully upset about cycle lanes though. And LTNs.
No I don't, you must be confusing me with someone else.
I've said repeatedly I wholeheartedly support investing in building more cycle lanes and more roads.
And that building more new roads with cycle tracks enables converting pre-existing ones to have cycle tracks and be an LTN by alleviating the through traffic away from that road and onto the new one.
No wonder you're confused if you don't know who is who - I have never once objected to cycle tracks. I use the local cycle track to ride with my kids to take them to the local park.
Always conditional on new roads. You're at least as bad as a NIMBY who insists on basic sanitation.
Why is that bad?
Investment should include new stuff, yes.
What's wrong with saying when we invest we should build new stuff. That's kind of the point!
Are new cycle lanes any of "your bloody business"?
No.
For the umpteenth time, I have no objection to new cycle lanes and new roads getting built. I support it.
How about just a cycle lane?
Its more practical typically to build a cycle lane with a new road, but if its eg building one parallel to an existing road eating into its embankment that can be a good idea too.
No objections to any of that. I've never once objected to a cycle lane, I just believe the practical way to do it is to build lanes and roads simultaneously.
I'm talking about losing a lane of traffic or parking to make way for a cycle lane.
It's "NIMBY SCUM" who are the main obstacle to improved cycling provision across the UK. I'm glad to have your energy and commitment on our side.
I don't think losing a lane of traffic or parking without the provision of an alternative is a good idea.
However I don't think I should get a say in trying to block it if it happens.
I oppose NIMBY scum. And that cuts both ways. I am consistent on that.
On a road near me the Council built a new expressway that goes through town at 50mph alleviating all the traffic that were using what was previously the A-road as a through road. When that opened they turned the old A-road from a 30mph road with 2 lanes heading towards Liverpool to a 20mph with only 1 lane each way and a dedicated 2-way cycle track too.
Everyone wins that way. Through traffic is moving at 50mph not 30mph through town, local conditions are actually clearer since t he through traffic isn't getting stopped at local traffic lights anymore and the cyclists have their own track. Win/win/win.
"A civil servant robot working for a council in South Korea was found unresponsive after apparently throwing itself down a flight of stairs, with locals now mourning the country's first robot suicide."
While the Graun includes the Badenoch/Tennant spat deep in its rolling coverage, there is no mention at all of it, still less any story on its election website front page.
It's on their main election news feed, and has been for mcuh of today. There is only so much space on the page itself.
"...The PA news agency have a bit more detail on the comments from David Tennant and Kemi Badenoch. Tennant won a prize for being a “celebrity ally” at the British LGBT awards last week and used his speech to target the equalities minister. Badenoch has faced criticism over her approach to trans rights.
Tennant said in his acceptance speech:
"...If I’m honest I’m a little depressed by the fact that acknowledging that everyone has the right to be who they want to be and live their life how they want to live it as long as they’re not hurting anyone else should merit any kind of special award or special mention, because it’s common sense, isn’t it? It is human decency. We shouldn’t live in a world where that is worth remarking on. However, until we wake up and Kemi Badenoch doesn’t exist any more – I don’t wish ill of her, I just wish her to shut up – whilst we do live in this world, I am honoured to receive this...”
In response to Tennant’s comments, Badenoch said:
"...I will not shut up. I will not be silenced by men who prioritise applause from Stonewall over the safety of women and girls. A rich, lefty, white male celebrity so blinded by ideology he can’t see the optics of attacking the only black woman in government by calling publicly for my existence to end. Tennant is one of Labour’s celebrity supporters. This is an early example of what life will be like if they win. Keir Starmer stood by while Rosie Duffield was hounded. He and his supporters will do the same with the country. Do not let the bigots and bullies win...”
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, presumably having nothing better to do, then objected to Tennant's free speech by saying
"...Freedom of speech is the most powerful feature of our democracy. If you’re calling for women to shut up and wishing they didn’t exist, you are the problem..."
Goodwin thinks Reform may have been damaged by Farage's Ukraine comments which is significant coming from him.
It does play into the idea that Farage is most comfortable hanging around with the bad boys.
The Rest is Politics summed it up well this week: Farage and his ilk believe their own bullshit and assume everybody else does too deep down but most are too cowed to admit it. Whereas in reality these (e,g, Putin is right) are distinctly minority views.
Just reading this: getting uncanny vibes of similarity with this election (presumably complete with the equivalent of simulated dog turds in the grass):
'“It’s weird that this genre not only exists, but is so popular,” explains Krist Duro, editor-in-chief of Duuro Plays, a video game reviews website based in Albania – and the first person I could find who has actually played and somewhat enjoyed Lawn Mowing Simulator. “But you need to be wired in a particular way. I like repetitive tasks because they allow me to enter into a zen-like state. But the actual simulation part needs to be good.”'
My son likes a pressure washing game. Helps him relax after school. It's called PowerWash Simulator (on Steam). Leaves me baffled but then I've always been more a first-person shooter kind of guy...
Good grief. But it instantly reminds me of cleaning up archaeological or palaeontological finds with various tools. Very rewarding.
The whole thing is fascinating. You get rewards for doing a good job and that allows you to level up with all kinds of attachments to tackle harder and dirtier jobs.
Gets a bit weird on the later levels. I caught him cleaning the Roswell spacecraft...
Phone masts in urban areas should not have restrictions.
Sorry to make this point again but planning has come up and it's my area.
Yes, they should. You don't want them plonked in the middle of a school playing field, the flight path of an airport, or in a cemetery.
Come on. This anti-NIMBY stuff is starting to get a bit silly.
You don't need planning to deal with the former or the latter, the owners of the field or cemetery should determine what is appropriate with their own land. No need for NIMBYs to stick their oars in.
As for flight paths, flight safety is already dealt with separately under specific regulations, again no need for nosy neighbours to get involved.
So it's only the regulations that you personally don't like that should be ignored?
No, regulations should be set by the law, debated in Parliament.
Then people should be free to liberally do whatever they please within the law, without their neighbours having a say.
The origins of our legal system lie in creating a more peaceful way to resolve disputes than violent blood feuds. In a similar way, our planning system has to accommodate the reality that most people do care about what their neighbours do with their land.
Having some rules, and a process, around it helps to ameliorate frustration and bad feeling, and reduces the likelihood of a dispute leading to violence.
While I can respect that you hold this idealistic position that posits they people shouldn't care, do you not acknowledge the value of a planning system to deal with the reality that people do care?
Just reading this: getting uncanny vibes of similarity with this election (presumably complete with the equivalent of simulated dog turds in the grass):
'“It’s weird that this genre not only exists, but is so popular,” explains Krist Duro, editor-in-chief of Duuro Plays, a video game reviews website based in Albania – and the first person I could find who has actually played and somewhat enjoyed Lawn Mowing Simulator. “But you need to be wired in a particular way. I like repetitive tasks because they allow me to enter into a zen-like state. But the actual simulation part needs to be good.”'
I feel reasonably sure there was a lawn mowing simulator game for the ZX Spectrum.
I assume modern lawn mowing simulator games are a much closer proxy to the real thing, though.
Edit - helps if you read the article first which actually states this
Phone masts in urban areas should not have restrictions.
Sorry to make this point again but planning has come up and it's my area.
Yes, they should. You don't want them plonked in the middle of a school playing field, the flight path of an airport, or in a cemetery.
Come on. This anti-NIMBY stuff is starting to get a bit silly.
You don't need planning to deal with the former or the latter, the owners of the field or cemetery should determine what is appropriate with their own land. No need for NIMBYs to stick their oars in.
As for flight paths, flight safety is already dealt with separately under specific regulations, again no need for nosy neighbours to get involved.
So it's only the regulations that you personally don't like that should be ignored?
No, regulations should be set by the law, debated in Parliament.
Then people should be free to liberally do whatever they please within the law, without their neighbours having a say.
The origins of our legal system lie in creating a more peaceful way to resolve disputes than violent blood feuds. In a similar way, our planning system has to accommodate the reality that most people do care about what their neighbours do with their land.
Having some rules, and a process, around it helps to ameliorate frustration and bad feeling, and reduces the likelihood of a dispute leading to violence.
While I can respect that you hold this idealistic position that posits they people shouldn't care, do you not acknowledge the value of a planning system to deal with the reality that people do care?
No.
People may care that new homes affects their view or whatever other crap, or that it devalues their property.
But tough shit.
People need somewhere to live. That trumps anyone else's desire to artificially inflate their property value, or maintain a pristine view over land they don't own that is not theirs.
I wonder what first attracted this chap to Nigel Farage?
Reform candidate Leslie Lilley said he would ‘slaughter migrants’
The 70-year-old conspiracy theorist who is likely to reap 20 per cent of the vote in Southend East & Rochford is Facebook friends with the fascist leader Gary Raikes
A Reform candidate said he would “slaughter” migrants arriving on small boats and “have their family taken out”.
Leslie Lilley, who is set to win almost 20 per cent of the vote in the Labour battleground seat of Southend East & Rochford, made the threats on the official Facebook account he uses to run his local campaign.
In a post in June 2020, Lilley reacted to the news of a small boat arriving in Dover saying: “I hope I’m near one of these scumbags one day I won’t run away I’ll slaughter them then have their family taken out.”
The same month, Lilley, now 70, railed against “more scum entering the UK”, adding “I hope your family get Robbed, Beaten or attacked”.
He also suggested Border Force vessels should have razor wire to tear small boats carrying migrants across the Channel, and commented “gas” along with several laughing emojis under a video of Muslims praying.
Lilley, who has also argued that the pandemic was a plan to “depopulate the world” and was “mass murder by government”, is one of the 41 Reform UK candidates who are “friends” on Facebook with Gary Raikes, the fascist leader.
Just reading this: getting uncanny vibes of similarity with this election (presumably complete with the equivalent of simulated dog turds in the grass):
'“It’s weird that this genre not only exists, but is so popular,” explains Krist Duro, editor-in-chief of Duuro Plays, a video game reviews website based in Albania – and the first person I could find who has actually played and somewhat enjoyed Lawn Mowing Simulator. “But you need to be wired in a particular way. I like repetitive tasks because they allow me to enter into a zen-like state. But the actual simulation part needs to be good.”'
I feel reasonably sure there was a lawn mowing simulator game for the ZX Spectrum.
I assume modern lawn mowing simulator games are a much closer proxy to the real thing, though.
There was - the article discusses it!
'Recreating the act of trimming grass is nothing new. Advanced Lawnmower Simulator for the ZX Spectrum came free on a Your Sinclair magazine cover tape in 1988. Written as an April fool joke by writer Duncan MacDonald, [...].'
Still not convinced Ukraine has dented Farage support but what it does do is probably lower that ceiling of support that he could potentially attract. He does have one - there are huge chunks of the country that wouldn’t vote for him.
This is important when it comes to working out what happens post-election.
Just reading this: getting uncanny vibes of similarity with this election (presumably complete with the equivalent of simulated dog turds in the grass):
'“It’s weird that this genre not only exists, but is so popular,” explains Krist Duro, editor-in-chief of Duuro Plays, a video game reviews website based in Albania – and the first person I could find who has actually played and somewhat enjoyed Lawn Mowing Simulator. “But you need to be wired in a particular way. I like repetitive tasks because they allow me to enter into a zen-like state. But the actual simulation part needs to be good.”'
I feel reasonably sure there was a lawn mowing simulator game for the ZX Spectrum.
I assume modern lawn mowing simulator games are a much closer proxy to the real thing, though.
There was - the article discusses it!
'Recreating the act of trimming grass is nothing new. Advanced Lawnmower Simulator for the ZX Spectrum came free on a Your Sinclair magazine cover tape in 1988. Written as an April fool joke by writer Duncan MacDonald, [...].'
Indeed! I think I actually played that.
I also remember Trashman for the C64, which was all the excitement of following the bin lorry emptying the bins.
While the Graun includes the Badenoch/Tennant spat deep in its rolling coverage, there is no mention at all of it, still less any story on its election website front page.
It's on their main election news feed, and has been for mcuh of today. There is only so much space on the page itself.
"...The PA news agency have a bit more detail on the comments from David Tennant and Kemi Badenoch. Tennant won a prize for being a “celebrity ally” at the British LGBT awards last week and used his speech to target the equalities minister. Badenoch has faced criticism over her approach to trans rights.
Tennant said in his acceptance speech:
"...If I’m honest I’m a little depressed by the fact that acknowledging that everyone has the right to be who they want to be and live their life how they want to live it as long as they’re not hurting anyone else should merit any kind of special award or special mention, because it’s common sense, isn’t it? It is human decency. We shouldn’t live in a world where that is worth remarking on. However, until we wake up and Kemi Badenoch doesn’t exist any more – I don’t wish ill of her, I just wish her to shut up – whilst we do live in this world, I am honoured to receive this...”
In response to Tennant’s comments, Badenoch said:
"...I will not shut up. I will not be silenced by men who prioritise applause from Stonewall over the safety of women and girls. A rich, lefty, white male celebrity so blinded by ideology he can’t see the optics of attacking the only black woman in government by calling publicly for my existence to end. Tennant is one of Labour’s celebrity supporters. This is an early example of what life will be like if they win. Keir Starmer stood by while Rosie Duffield was hounded. He and his supporters will do the same with the country. Do not let the bigots and bullies win...”
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, presumably having nothing better to do, then objected to Tennant's free speech by saying
"...Freedom of speech is the most powerful feature of our democracy. If you’re calling for women to shut up and wishing they didn’t exist, you are the problem..."
So we have Dawn Butler telling Rishi Sunak to shut up about Kemi Badenoch telling David Tennant to shut up about David Tennant telling Kemi Badenoch to shut up.
Lucky there's no election campaign going on, otherwise they'd be far too busy to get involved with this.
Phone masts in urban areas should not have restrictions.
Sorry to make this point again but planning has come up and it's my area.
Yes, they should. You don't want them plonked in the middle of a school playing field, the flight path of an airport, or in a cemetery.
Come on. This anti-NIMBY stuff is starting to get a bit silly.
You don't need planning to deal with the former or the latter, the owners of the field or cemetery should determine what is appropriate with their own land. No need for NIMBYs to stick their oars in.
As for flight paths, flight safety is already dealt with separately under specific regulations, again no need for nosy neighbours to get involved.
So it's only the regulations that you personally don't like that should be ignored?
No, regulations should be set by the law, debated in Parliament.
Then people should be free to liberally do whatever they please within the law, without their neighbours having a say.
The origins of our legal system lie in creating a more peaceful way to resolve disputes than violent blood feuds. In a similar way, our planning system has to accommodate the reality that most people do care about what their neighbours do with their land.
Having some rules, and a process, around it helps to ameliorate frustration and bad feeling, and reduces the likelihood of a dispute leading to violence.
While I can respect that you hold this idealistic position that posits they people shouldn't care, do you not acknowledge the value of a planning system to deal with the reality that people do care?
No.
People may care that new homes affects their view or whatever other crap, or that it devalues their property.
But tough shit.
People need somewhere to live. That trumps anyone else's desire to artificially inflate their property value, or maintain a pristine view over land they don't own that is not theirs.
Re planning. Scrap both the 1948 act and the 1925 act, so restoring Copyhold
Save a fortune and no one gets to build anything without the Lord of the Manors say so and if you sell hour house, the Lord of the Manor gets a veto over who buys it, preventing undesirable sorts moving into the area.
Shy Tories. People who lie who they vote for. The do not knows. We know The Tories are very unpopular. Agreed. 50 to 70 seats for them. No. Don't bet on that!
I think that if you polled people on who admits to
a) masturbating b) eating your own bogies c) eating pineapple on pizza d) voting Conservative
then option d) would currently get the lowest number.
But plenty will still do it, despite what they admit in public. (As a Conservative door-knocker, I'm one of the few people inside the loop on what they admit to.)
While the Graun includes the Badenoch/Tennant spat deep in its rolling coverage, there is no mention at all of it, still less any story on its election website front page.
It's on their main election news feed, and has been for mcuh of today. There is only so much space on the page itself.
"...The PA news agency have a bit more detail on the comments from David Tennant and Kemi Badenoch. Tennant won a prize for being a “celebrity ally” at the British LGBT awards last week and used his speech to target the equalities minister. Badenoch has faced criticism over her approach to trans rights.
Tennant said in his acceptance speech:
"...If I’m honest I’m a little depressed by the fact that acknowledging that everyone has the right to be who they want to be and live their life how they want to live it as long as they’re not hurting anyone else should merit any kind of special award or special mention, because it’s common sense, isn’t it? It is human decency. We shouldn’t live in a world where that is worth remarking on. However, until we wake up and Kemi Badenoch doesn’t exist any more – I don’t wish ill of her, I just wish her to shut up – whilst we do live in this world, I am honoured to receive this...”
In response to Tennant’s comments, Badenoch said:
"...I will not shut up. I will not be silenced by men who prioritise applause from Stonewall over the safety of women and girls. A rich, lefty, white male celebrity so blinded by ideology he can’t see the optics of attacking the only black woman in government by calling publicly for my existence to end. Tennant is one of Labour’s celebrity supporters. This is an early example of what life will be like if they win. Keir Starmer stood by while Rosie Duffield was hounded. He and his supporters will do the same with the country. Do not let the bigots and bullies win...”
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, presumably having nothing better to do, then objected to Tennant's free speech by saying
"...Freedom of speech is the most powerful feature of our democracy. If you’re calling for women to shut up and wishing they didn’t exist, you are the problem..."
So we have Dawn Butler telling Rishi Sunak to shut up about Kemi Badenoch telling David Tennant to shut up about David Tennant telling Kemi Badenoch to shut up.
Lucky there's no election campaign going on, otherwise they'd be far too busy to get involved with this.
I wonder what first attracted this chap to Nigel Farage?
Reform candidate Leslie Lilley said he would ‘slaughter migrants’
The 70-year-old conspiracy theorist who is likely to reap 20 per cent of the vote in Southend East & Rochford is Facebook friends with the fascist leader Gary Raikes
A Reform candidate said he would “slaughter” migrants arriving on small boats and “have their family taken out”.
Leslie Lilley, who is set to win almost 20 per cent of the vote in the Labour battleground seat of Southend East & Rochford, made the threats on the official Facebook account he uses to run his local campaign.
In a post in June 2020, Lilley reacted to the news of a small boat arriving in Dover saying: “I hope I’m near one of these scumbags one day I won’t run away I’ll slaughter them then have their family taken out.”
The same month, Lilley, now 70, railed against “more scum entering the UK”, adding “I hope your family get Robbed, Beaten or attacked”.
He also suggested Border Force vessels should have razor wire to tear small boats carrying migrants across the Channel, and commented “gas” along with several laughing emojis under a video of Muslims praying.
Lilley, who has also argued that the pandemic was a plan to “depopulate the world” and was “mass murder by government”, is one of the 41 Reform UK candidates who are “friends” on Facebook with Gary Raikes, the fascist leader.
Phone masts in urban areas should not have restrictions.
Sorry to make this point again but planning has come up and it's my area.
Yes, they should. You don't want them plonked in the middle of a school playing field, the flight path of an airport, or in a cemetery.
Come on. This anti-NIMBY stuff is starting to get a bit silly.
You don't need planning to deal with the former or the latter, the owners of the field or cemetery should determine what is appropriate with their own land. No need for NIMBYs to stick their oars in.
As for flight paths, flight safety is already dealt with separately under specific regulations, again no need for nosy neighbours to get involved.
So it's only the regulations that you personally don't like that should be ignored?
No, regulations should be set by the law, debated in Parliament.
Then people should be free to liberally do whatever they please within the law, without their neighbours having a say.
The origins of our legal system lie in creating a more peaceful way to resolve disputes than violent blood feuds. In a similar way, our planning system has to accommodate the reality that most people do care about what their neighbours do with their land.
Having some rules, and a process, around it helps to ameliorate frustration and bad feeling, and reduces the likelihood of a dispute leading to violence.
While I can respect that you hold this idealistic position that posits they people shouldn't care, do you not acknowledge the value of a planning system to deal with the reality that people do care?
No.
People may care that new homes affects their view or whatever other crap, or that it devalues their property.
But tough shit.
People need somewhere to live. That trumps anyone else's desire to artificially inflate their property value, or maintain a pristine view over land they don't own that is not theirs.
You haven't addressed the question.
I have.
There is no value to me in the planning system and it should be abolished.
People should be free to do whatever they want with their own land within the law, with their neighbours getting no say, involvement, or advance notice its happening.
Just abolish the lot of it. How much clearer can I be?
As for your absurd hypothetical, I've already said if its on their land I couldn't care less. Their land, their choice.
Shy Tories. People who lie who they vote for. The do not knows. We know The Tories are very unpopular. Agreed. 50 to 70 seats for them. No. Don't bet on that!
I think that if you polled people on who admits to
a) masturbating b) eating your own bogies c) eating pineapple on pizza d) voting Conservative
then option d) would currently get the lowest number.
But plenty will still do it, despite what they admit in public. (As a Conservative door-knocker, I'm one of the few people inside the loop on what they admit to.)
[snip] Everything anyone wants to build should be waved through.
*Applauds.*
I don't agree, but I love mad and uncompromising certainty on an extreme position.
We established a few days ago that @BartholomewRoberts doesn't actually mean it. He is assuming that people won't decide to build things that he doesn't like.
What are you talking about? I never said that!
If someone builds something I don't like, that's none of my bloody business is my position.
You said that you wouldn't want someone to build a balcony directly perpendicular to your garden, therefore you don't really think they should be able to build anything they want on their land.
I never said that. You tried (repeatedly) to get me to say that, but what I actually (repeatedly) said is whatever they want to do with their land should be up to them and if its on their land I have no objection whatsoever.
You did. When you eventually understood what kind of development I was proposing, you said you wouldn't be happy with it.
No, I said it would be their choice in my system.
And I literally said in my system if they did that I'd be free to do the same. Or extend the property so their balcony gets a view of a brick wall.
People should be free to do what they please, within the law, on their own land. Neighbours should mind their own f***ing business.
No restrictions against doing this?
Your picture has the balcony going into my land, so yes that would be problematic.
Set it back so its purely in their land and no I couldn't give less of a shit.
I can already see the entirety of my neighbours gardens from my window anyway. What difference does it make?
I always find the "overlooking my garden" objections in planning disputes bizarre, especially around here. We're on terraces. Everyone's house looks into everyone else's garden and into the houses opposite. Quite why being overlooked from an extension or a set of new build flats is more intrusive than what's already here is a mystery.
There have been several applications for flats in the mews behind us, some of which would "loom" (not my words) over our and neighbours' gardens. Every time they are objected to, no matter how reasonable the application. I risk being ostracised every time I so much as demur on the basis I am perfectly happy with the development and we need new housing.
Is the problem more if the extension that’s “overlooking your garden” is blocking out the sun so you end up with your garden in shade through the summer? That’s probably a fair objection is it not?
Shy Tories. People who lie who they vote for. The do not knows. We know The Tories are very unpopular. Agreed. 50 to 70 seats for them. No. Don't bet on that!
I think that if you polled people on who admits to
a) masturbating b) eating your own bogies c) eating pineapple on pizza d) voting Conservative
then option d) would currently get the lowest number.
But plenty will still do it, despite what they admit in public. (As a Conservative door-knocker, I'm one of the few people inside the loop on what they admit to.)
I wonder what first attracted this chap to Nigel Farage?
Reform candidate Leslie Lilley said he would ‘slaughter migrants’
The 70-year-old conspiracy theorist who is likely to reap 20 per cent of the vote in Southend East & Rochford is Facebook friends with the fascist leader Gary Raikes
A Reform candidate said he would “slaughter” migrants arriving on small boats and “have their family taken out”.
Leslie Lilley, who is set to win almost 20 per cent of the vote in the Labour battleground seat of Southend East & Rochford, made the threats on the official Facebook account he uses to run his local campaign.
In a post in June 2020, Lilley reacted to the news of a small boat arriving in Dover saying: “I hope I’m near one of these scumbags one day I won’t run away I’ll slaughter them then have their family taken out.”
The same month, Lilley, now 70, railed against “more scum entering the UK”, adding “I hope your family get Robbed, Beaten or attacked”.
He also suggested Border Force vessels should have razor wire to tear small boats carrying migrants across the Channel, and commented “gas” along with several laughing emojis under a video of Muslims praying.
Lilley, who has also argued that the pandemic was a plan to “depopulate the world” and was “mass murder by government”, is one of the 41 Reform UK candidates who are “friends” on Facebook with Gary Raikes, the fascist leader.
Proponents of PR - how many of these delightful folk* are you prepared to have holding the balance of power?
*aka low-life fuckers...
Should be noted Nigel is expressing pretty much exactly the same views on Ukraine that the previous leader of the Labour Party did. PR is no guarantee of keeping parties led by objectionable cranks out of parliament.
Goodwin thinks Reform may have been damaged by Farage's Ukraine comments which is significant coming from him.
It does play into the idea that Farage is most comfortable hanging around with the bad boys.
He’s spent too much time in the US, and really didn’t realise that the Overton Window is quite different on this subject in the two countries. Now he’s been called on it, he has little choice but to double down. A whole load of former Conservative protest voters (of whom I might be one) would be totally horrified by this stance in the UK.
He also has to decide whether he wants to be an insurgent appealing to a niche or the new leader of the Conservative party.
I did hear a revealing conversation among younger populist right figures. They were bemoaning how so many of the up and coming types of that persuasion in the UK were hoping to end up in the US where there is obviously lots more money to be made.
Phone masts in urban areas should not have restrictions.
Sorry to make this point again but planning has come up and it's my area.
Yes, they should. You don't want them plonked in the middle of a school playing field, the flight path of an airport, or in a cemetery.
Come on. This anti-NIMBY stuff is starting to get a bit silly.
You don't need planning to deal with the former or the latter, the owners of the field or cemetery should determine what is appropriate with their own land. No need for NIMBYs to stick their oars in.
As for flight paths, flight safety is already dealt with separately under specific regulations, again no need for nosy neighbours to get involved.
So it's only the regulations that you personally don't like that should be ignored?
No, regulations should be set by the law, debated in Parliament.
Then people should be free to liberally do whatever they please within the law, without their neighbours having a say.
The origins of our legal system lie in creating a more peaceful way to resolve disputes than violent blood feuds. In a similar way, our planning system has to accommodate the reality that most people do care about what their neighbours do with their land.
Having some rules, and a process, around it helps to ameliorate frustration and bad feeling, and reduces the likelihood of a dispute leading to violence.
While I can respect that you hold this idealistic position that posits they people shouldn't care, do you not acknowledge the value of a planning system to deal with the reality that people do care?
No.
People may care that new homes affects their view or whatever other crap, or that it devalues their property.
But tough shit.
People need somewhere to live. That trumps anyone else's desire to artificially inflate their property value, or maintain a pristine view over land they don't own that is not theirs.
New Goverment says that will double the amount of houses the current lot have built per year.
Shy Tories. People who lie who they vote for. The do not knows. We know The Tories are very unpopular. Agreed. 50 to 70 seats for them. No. Don't bet on that!
I think that if you polled people on who admits to
a) masturbating b) eating your own bogies c) eating pineapple on pizza d) voting Conservative
then option d) would currently get the lowest number.
But plenty will still do it, despite what they admit in public. (As a Conservative door-knocker, I'm one of the few people inside the loop on what they admit to.)
Phone masts in urban areas should not have restrictions.
Sorry to make this point again but planning has come up and it's my area.
Yes, they should. You don't want them plonked in the middle of a school playing field, the flight path of an airport, or in a cemetery.
Come on. This anti-NIMBY stuff is starting to get a bit silly.
You don't need planning to deal with the former or the latter, the owners of the field or cemetery should determine what is appropriate with their own land. No need for NIMBYs to stick their oars in.
As for flight paths, flight safety is already dealt with separately under specific regulations, again no need for nosy neighbours to get involved.
So it's only the regulations that you personally don't like that should be ignored?
No, regulations should be set by the law, debated in Parliament.
Then people should be free to liberally do whatever they please within the law, without their neighbours having a say.
The origins of our legal system lie in creating a more peaceful way to resolve disputes than violent blood feuds. In a similar way, our planning system has to accommodate the reality that most people do care about what their neighbours do with their land.
Having some rules, and a process, around it helps to ameliorate frustration and bad feeling, and reduces the likelihood of a dispute leading to violence.
While I can respect that you hold this idealistic position that posits they people shouldn't care, do you not acknowledge the value of a planning system to deal with the reality that people do care?
No.
People may care that new homes affects their view or whatever other crap, or that it devalues their property.
But tough shit.
People need somewhere to live. That trumps anyone else's desire to artificially inflate their property value, or maintain a pristine view over land they don't own that is not theirs.
You haven't addressed the question.
I have.
There is no value to me in the planning system and it should be abolished.
People should be free to do whatever they want with their own land within the law, with their neighbours getting no say, involvement, or advance notice its happening.
Just abolish the lot of it. How much clearer can I be?
As for your absurd hypothetical, I've already said if its on their land I couldn't care less. Their land, their choice.
And if it leads to a spike in intimidation or neighbourly feuds turning nasty, that's not a problem worth addressing?
Bobby Dean is the Lib Dem candidate in Tom Brake's old seat of Carshalton & Wallington. It was very close last time so unless there's a big outer-London surge for the Tories it should fall this time. But it's not typical Lib Dem land - it's not dissimilar in some ways from places like Bexley or Bromley.
I think Bobby will be very influential in the parliamentary party. He is unusual: properly working class in a generally very bourgeois party, very much to the left on economic issues including tax and spend. A Liberal rather than Labour mainly because of actual policies rather than ancestral tribalism. Not an ideological remainer. He's about as "red wall" as you get in the Lib Dems.
He used to live around here so I know him well from the local party. Definitely one to watch, along with his friend Josh Babarinde (Eastbourne).
Nice header, but why do you/we focus on the bad polls for the Tories?
I accept that Ipsos and Survation have some pedigree, but Varian, JLP and MiC are all solid enough and members of the BPC. I appreciate that even they are not so great for the Blue team, but they do at least feed a little life into what otherwise would be the dried out corpse of the outgoing government.
The question is why are we seeing such a wide divergence (the gap between 18% and 25% is vast in statistical terms). Is it methodology, sampling, weighting, re-allocation of Don't Knows?
I pointed to a huge discrepency in the over 65 vote shares between More In Common (40% for the Conservatives) and R&W (25%).
JL Partners has 43% Conservative share among the over 65s which explains its higher Conservative VI.
I saw something on Twitter that was saying some pollsters were accounting for some of the older Tory vote dying off since 2019, and some weren’t.
Didn’t look into it too much but that could explain a lot if it differs between pollsters?
The bigger issue for the MRPs is that the census data they use to back-project their poll findings and analysis onto each constituency are often quite old.
When you look at by-election swings, the Lib Dems have mahoosively outperformed Labour (Even though Labour had some very good swings this parliament). I think the yellows could be in for a very good night indeed.
I dare not jinx it but getting my hopes up. Done that too often.
I'll be relieved if we go above 20 seats, happy if we get 25+ and delirious if we beat the SNP into 3rd place.
I worry for you when the LDs beat the Tories into 2nd.
Yes I still think this bet at 4.5 is stunning value. If tactical voting is anything like all the indications suggest it will be, the LDs should have a good shot at getting over the line.
Not a chance. Even on the MRPs which generally show worse seat numbers than UNS the Tories are generally getting comfortably over 100 seats. And there remain at least 2 or 3 percentage points of Reform left to squeeze even if the Ref vote holds up much higher than in recent local elections.
That's simply factually wrong.
The MRP average is 98 seats or just over 100 if you exclude electoral calculus. Half are over and half under 100 seats. The remainder of your statement might be true but the bit in bold is codswallop.
Phone masts in urban areas should not have restrictions.
Sorry to make this point again but planning has come up and it's my area.
Yes, they should. You don't want them plonked in the middle of a school playing field, the flight path of an airport, or in a cemetery.
Come on. This anti-NIMBY stuff is starting to get a bit silly.
You don't need planning to deal with the former or the latter, the owners of the field or cemetery should determine what is appropriate with their own land. No need for NIMBYs to stick their oars in.
As for flight paths, flight safety is already dealt with separately under specific regulations, again no need for nosy neighbours to get involved.
So it's only the regulations that you personally don't like that should be ignored?
No, regulations should be set by the law, debated in Parliament.
Then people should be free to liberally do whatever they please within the law, without their neighbours having a say.
The origins of our legal system lie in creating a more peaceful way to resolve disputes than violent blood feuds. In a similar way, our planning system has to accommodate the reality that most people do care about what their neighbours do with their land.
Having some rules, and a process, around it helps to ameliorate frustration and bad feeling, and reduces the likelihood of a dispute leading to violence.
While I can respect that you hold this idealistic position that posits they people shouldn't care, do you not acknowledge the value of a planning system to deal with the reality that people do care?
No.
People may care that new homes affects their view or whatever other crap, or that it devalues their property.
But tough shit.
People need somewhere to live. That trumps anyone else's desire to artificially inflate their property value, or maintain a pristine view over land they don't own that is not theirs.
You haven't addressed the question.
I have.
There is no value to me in the planning system and it should be abolished.
People should be free to do whatever they want with their own land within the law, with their neighbours getting no say, involvement, or advance notice its happening.
Just abolish the lot of it. How much clearer can I be?
As for your absurd hypothetical, I've already said if its on their land I couldn't care less. Their land, their choice.
And if it leads to a spike in intimidation or neighbourly feuds turning nasty, that's not a problem worth addressing?
No.
Neighbour feuds turning nasty should be dealt with the same way as any other antisocial behaviour is.
We already have laws against intimidation and violence.
Re planning. Scrap both the 1948 act and the 1925 act, so restoring Copyhold
Save a fortune and no one gets to build anything without the Lord of the Manors say so and if you sell hour house, the Lord of the Manor gets a veto over who buys it, preventing undesirable sorts moving into the area.
Shy Tories. People who lie who they vote for. The do not knows. We know The Tories are very unpopular. Agreed. 50 to 70 seats for them. No. Don't bet on that!
Do you not think all the polls / MRPs are accounting for a potential ‘Shy Tory’ phenomenon given how much it appears that’s been a thing in the past?
In fact if you look at the raw data in a lot of these polls before certain adjustments it can look even worse for the Tories!
I wonder what first attracted this chap to Nigel Farage?
Reform candidate Leslie Lilley said he would ‘slaughter migrants’
The 70-year-old conspiracy theorist who is likely to reap 20 per cent of the vote in Southend East & Rochford is Facebook friends with the fascist leader Gary Raikes
A Reform candidate said he would “slaughter” migrants arriving on small boats and “have their family taken out”.
Leslie Lilley, who is set to win almost 20 per cent of the vote in the Labour battleground seat of Southend East & Rochford, made the threats on the official Facebook account he uses to run his local campaign.
In a post in June 2020, Lilley reacted to the news of a small boat arriving in Dover saying: “I hope I’m near one of these scumbags one day I won’t run away I’ll slaughter them then have their family taken out.”
The same month, Lilley, now 70, railed against “more scum entering the UK”, adding “I hope your family get Robbed, Beaten or attacked”.
He also suggested Border Force vessels should have razor wire to tear small boats carrying migrants across the Channel, and commented “gas” along with several laughing emojis under a video of Muslims praying.
Lilley, who has also argued that the pandemic was a plan to “depopulate the world” and was “mass murder by government”, is one of the 41 Reform UK candidates who are “friends” on Facebook with Gary Raikes, the fascist leader.
Alex Wickham @alexwickham How the Tories could lose a load of seats along the west Thames to the Lib Dems — including 140-year Conservative stronghold Henley — in part due to fury over sewage-infested waters
Shy Tories. People who lie who they vote for. The do not knows. We know The Tories are very unpopular. Agreed. 50 to 70 seats for them. No. Don't bet on that!
I think that if you polled people on who admits to
a) masturbating b) eating your own bogies c) eating pineapple on pizza d) voting Conservative
then option d) would currently get the lowest number.
But plenty will still do it, despite what they admit in public. (As a Conservative door-knocker, I'm one of the few people inside the loop on what they admit to.)
The weather is lovely today, lots of sport on TV, and then there is politics
I would just say I have accepted the result will see a landslide Starmer government and the conservative party can have no complaints if they are marginalised
I hope Starmer proves better than is expected as he is likely to be PM for a long time, but then events happen so who knows
I am looking forward to my wife and my 2 trips up Snowdon and on the Welsh Highland Railway next month and only have one question that really is a mystery to me and no doubt many others
Why on earth did Sunak suddenly call an election :
Concern the economy will be poorer in the Autumn
Expected an imminent vonc
Just wanted out
No doubt in time all will be revealed but to those who bet good luck, to those who have waited for a labour government your time is here, and to those of us who are one nation conservatives pray that Farage is consigned to the dustbin of history
Good afternoon Big G.
I’m enjoying the ladies tennis from Eastbourne. Katie Boulter just posted up a good win against Ostapenko. You can get 50/1 on Katie for Wimbledon or if you shop around 70 or 80/1. Still 30/1 on Emma Raducanu. The reason that Katie price might be worth a punt is that she’s in great form, winning her first WTA titles and entering the world top 30.
Anyway, back to your post, have a lovely time up on Snowdon next month. What fun.
Thanks Heathener
Actually I am watching England v New Zealand women's cricket with NZ all out for 156 after 33.3 overs
My mother was a fantastic cricket fan and scored each match in those wonderful old books in the 1950s and she encouraged me to join the cricket club and be coached when I was just 7
It would be good to see Katie or Emma do well at Wimbledon and tennis was the reason my wife and I began our 60 year love affair as we were drawn in the Edinburgh inter office Insurance competition to play together in mixed doubles and she was a very good tennis player mainly because the tennis courts were immediate behind her family home in Lossiemouth
We cannot venture far anymore so our 2 trips up Snowdon and our trip on the Welsh Highland Railway are certainly highlights for us as we haven't been to the summit of Snowdon in 40 years
I posted this previously as it really does show how much we have to offer here in North Wales to the visitor
From both their tables, there is a significant difference in Conservative support between 75+ and 65-74, so a single 65+ segment is likely to be less accurate.
That said, there still is a 7% difference in the headline figures for Conservatives between Survation and More in Common.
Outstanding post, thank you! That has tripped up pollsters before!
Shy Tories. People who lie who they vote for. The do not knows. We know The Tories are very unpopular. Agreed. 50 to 70 seats for them. No. Don't bet on that!
Do you not think all the polls / MRPs are accounting for a potential ‘Shy Tory’ phenomenon given how much it appears that’s been a thing in the past?
In fact if you look at the raw data in a lot of these polls before certain adjustments it can look even worse for the Tories!
Sure thing. Let's wait for the result next Friday.
Thank you. For we visual learners that’s very helpful x
It's also good that, between all the regular polling, the exit poll, the estimated declaration times and when the threshold is broken in cumulative seats we increasingly don't need to actually bother with the election or waiting for the results itself.
A bit like we're heading to those sci-fi novels where they've eliminated real war because it's all simulated to death virtually first.
Broxbourne and Basildon/Billericay are the first big tests of the models
EC Broxbourne 0.3 Con YG Broxbourne 1% Lab NS Broxbourne 2.4% Lab IPSOS Broxbourne 1% Con SAVANTA Broxbourne 4.97% Lab FOCALDATA Broxbourne 2.0% Con More in Common Broxbourne 6.50% Con Survation Broxbourne 1.73% Con
Same MRPs/models
Basildon and Billericay 2.4 Lab Basildon and Billericay 2% Rfm Basildon and Billericay 0.4% Con Basildon and Billericay 5% Lab Basildon and Billericay 6.89% Lab Basildon and Billericay 8.3% Con Basildon and Billericay 8.80% Con Basildon and Billericay 1.89% Lab
Goodwin thinks Reform may have been damaged by Farage's Ukraine comments which is significant coming from him.
It does play into the idea that Farage is most comfortable hanging around with the bad boys.
He’s spent too much time in the US, and really didn’t realise that the Overton Window is quite different on this subject in the two countries. Now he’s been called on it, he has little choice but to double down. A whole load of former Conservative protest voters (of whom I might be one) would be totally horrified by this stance in the UK.
Phone masts in urban areas should not have restrictions.
Sorry to make this point again but planning has come up and it's my area.
Yes, they should. You don't want them plonked in the middle of a school playing field, the flight path of an airport, or in a cemetery.
Come on. This anti-NIMBY stuff is starting to get a bit silly.
You don't need planning to deal with the former or the latter, the owners of the field or cemetery should determine what is appropriate with their own land. No need for NIMBYs to stick their oars in.
As for flight paths, flight safety is already dealt with separately under specific regulations, again no need for nosy neighbours to get involved.
So it's only the regulations that you personally don't like that should be ignored?
No, regulations should be set by the law, debated in Parliament.
Then people should be free to liberally do whatever they please within the law, without their neighbours having a say.
The origins of our legal system lie in creating a more peaceful way to resolve disputes than violent blood feuds. In a similar way, our planning system has to accommodate the reality that most people do care about what their neighbours do with their land.
Having some rules, and a process, around it helps to ameliorate frustration and bad feeling, and reduces the likelihood of a dispute leading to violence.
While I can respect that you hold this idealistic position that posits they people shouldn't care, do you not acknowledge the value of a planning system to deal with the reality that people do care?
Shy Tories. People who lie who they vote for. The do not knows. We know The Tories are very unpopular. Agreed. 50 to 70 seats for them. No. Don't bet on that!
I think that if you polled people on who admits to
a) masturbating b) eating your own bogies c) eating pineapple on pizza d) voting Conservative
then option d) would currently get the lowest number.
But plenty will still do it, despite what they admit in public. (As a Conservative door-knocker, I'm one of the few people inside the loop on what they admit to.)
[snip] Everything anyone wants to build should be waved through.
*Applauds.*
I don't agree, but I love mad and uncompromising certainty on an extreme position.
We established a few days ago that @BartholomewRoberts doesn't actually mean it. He is assuming that people won't decide to build things that he doesn't like.
What are you talking about? I never said that!
If someone builds something I don't like, that's none of my bloody business is my position.
You said that you wouldn't want someone to build a balcony directly perpendicular to your garden, therefore you don't really think they should be able to build anything they want on their land.
I never said that. You tried (repeatedly) to get me to say that, but what I actually (repeatedly) said is whatever they want to do with their land should be up to them and if its on their land I have no objection whatsoever.
You did. When you eventually understood what kind of development I was proposing, you said you wouldn't be happy with it.
No, I said it would be their choice in my system.
And I literally said in my system if they did that I'd be free to do the same. Or extend the property so their balcony gets a view of a brick wall.
People should be free to do what they please, within the law, on their own land. Neighbours should mind their own f***ing business.
No restrictions against doing this?
Your picture has the balcony going into my land, so yes that would be problematic.
Set it back so its purely in their land and no I couldn't give less of a shit.
I can already see the entirety of my neighbours gardens from my window anyway. What difference does it make?
I always find the "overlooking my garden" objections in planning disputes bizarre, especially around here. We're on terraces. Everyone's house looks into everyone else's garden and into the houses opposite. Quite why being overlooked from an extension or a set of new build flats is more intrusive than what's already here is a mystery.
There have been several applications for flats in the mews behind us, some of which would "loom" (not my words) over our and neighbours' gardens. Every time they are objected to, no matter how reasonable the application. I risk being ostracised every time I so much as demur on the basis I am perfectly happy with the development and we need new housing.
Is the problem more if the extension that’s “overlooking your garden” is blocking out the sun so you end up with your garden in shade through the summer? That’s probably a fair objection is it not?
Those are separate objections, and very common too. Sometimes fair(ish), usually silly. These are often the same people who complain whenever a tree is cut back on the basis trees provide shelter and shade.
Thank you. For we visual learners that’s very helpful x
It's also good that, between all the regular polling, the exit poll, the estimated declaration times and when the threshold is broken in cumulative seats we increasingly don't need to actually bother with the election or waiting for the results itself.
A bit like we're heading to those sci-fi novels where they've eliminated real war because it's all simulated to death virtually first.
I just drove threw rural Surrey and Hampshire. Not 1 board for Labour or the Tories. Just Lib Dem. I drove threw Hordean. Liphook. Bentley. Petersfield.West Sussex. Midhurst. Petworth. Surrey Abinger Hammer. Dorking. Leith Hill. Guildford.
I wonder what first attracted this chap to Nigel Farage?
Reform candidate Leslie Lilley said he would ‘slaughter migrants’
The 70-year-old conspiracy theorist who is likely to reap 20 per cent of the vote in Southend East & Rochford is Facebook friends with the fascist leader Gary Raikes
A Reform candidate said he would “slaughter” migrants arriving on small boats and “have their family taken out”.
Leslie Lilley, who is set to win almost 20 per cent of the vote in the Labour battleground seat of Southend East & Rochford, made the threats on the official Facebook account he uses to run his local campaign.
In a post in June 2020, Lilley reacted to the news of a small boat arriving in Dover saying: “I hope I’m near one of these scumbags one day I won’t run away I’ll slaughter them then have their family taken out.”
The same month, Lilley, now 70, railed against “more scum entering the UK”, adding “I hope your family get Robbed, Beaten or attacked”.
He also suggested Border Force vessels should have razor wire to tear small boats carrying migrants across the Channel, and commented “gas” along with several laughing emojis under a video of Muslims praying.
Lilley, who has also argued that the pandemic was a plan to “depopulate the world” and was “mass murder by government”, is one of the 41 Reform UK candidates who are “friends” on Facebook with Gary Raikes, the fascist leader.
I wonder what first attracted this chap to Nigel Farage?
Reform candidate Leslie Lilley said he would ‘slaughter migrants’
The 70-year-old conspiracy theorist who is likely to reap 20 per cent of the vote in Southend East & Rochford is Facebook friends with the fascist leader Gary Raikes
A Reform candidate said he would “slaughter” migrants arriving on small boats and “have their family taken out”.
Leslie Lilley, who is set to win almost 20 per cent of the vote in the Labour battleground seat of Southend East & Rochford, made the threats on the official Facebook account he uses to run his local campaign.
In a post in June 2020, Lilley reacted to the news of a small boat arriving in Dover saying: “I hope I’m near one of these scumbags one day I won’t run away I’ll slaughter them then have their family taken out.”
The same month, Lilley, now 70, railed against “more scum entering the UK”, adding “I hope your family get Robbed, Beaten or attacked”.
He also suggested Border Force vessels should have razor wire to tear small boats carrying migrants across the Channel, and commented “gas” along with several laughing emojis under a video of Muslims praying.
Lilley, who has also argued that the pandemic was a plan to “depopulate the world” and was “mass murder by government”, is one of the 41 Reform UK candidates who are “friends” on Facebook with Gary Raikes, the fascist leader.
Proponents of PR - how many of these delightful folk* are you prepared to have holding the balance of power?
*aka low-life fuckers...
I would like to think that sensible parties like yours wouldn't get into bed with Putin appeasers.
But if 15% of the country want Putin appeasers, then our parliament should be 15% Putin appeasers. PR isn't about advancing MY politics, but making sure that EVERYONE'S politics get their fair share. I don't want to design a system that excludes my political opponents unfairly.
I’ll take that as a close second, but overall the country would be better off packing in democracy and allowing me to commence my benevolent* rule.
*Unless you wear shoes with no socks, do your top button up without a tie, or own a hipster beard; in which case you die.
Phone masts in urban areas should not have restrictions.
Sorry to make this point again but planning has come up and it's my area.
Yes, they should. You don't want them plonked in the middle of a school playing field, the flight path of an airport, or in a cemetery.
Come on. This anti-NIMBY stuff is starting to get a bit silly.
You don't need planning to deal with the former or the latter, the owners of the field or cemetery should determine what is appropriate with their own land. No need for NIMBYs to stick their oars in.
As for flight paths, flight safety is already dealt with separately under specific regulations, again no need for nosy neighbours to get involved.
So it's only the regulations that you personally don't like that should be ignored?
No, regulations should be set by the law, debated in Parliament.
Then people should be free to liberally do whatever they please within the law, without their neighbours having a say.
The origins of our legal system lie in creating a more peaceful way to resolve disputes than violent blood feuds. In a similar way, our planning system has to accommodate the reality that most people do care about what their neighbours do with their land.
Having some rules, and a process, around it helps to ameliorate frustration and bad feeling, and reduces the likelihood of a dispute leading to violence.
While I can respect that you hold this idealistic position that posits they people shouldn't care, do you not acknowledge the value of a planning system to deal with the reality that people do care?
No, Barty doesn't recognise their right to care.
They can care, bitch and moan all they please.
But if what is being developed is legal and by consenting adults on their own land it should be allowed and objections should have no say at all.
Just as if people object to a gay couple, or interracial couple, they should be allowed to care but not have the right to get involved and object to what consenting adults do on their own land.
Broxbourne and Basildon/Billericay are the first big tests of the models
EC Broxbourne 0.3 Con YG Broxbourne 1% Lab NS Broxbourne 2.4% Lab IPSOS Broxbourne 1% Con SAVANTA Broxbourne 4.97% Lab FOCALDATA Broxbourne 2.0% Con More in Common Broxbourne 6.50% Con Survation Broxbourne 1.73% Con
Same MRPs/models
Basildon and Billericay 2.4 Lab Basildon and Billericay 2% Rfm Basildon and Billericay 0.4% Con Basildon and Billericay 5% Lab Basildon and Billericay 6.89% Lab Basildon and Billericay 8.3% Con Basildon and Billericay 8.80% Con Basildon and Billericay 1.89% Lab
Phone masts in urban areas should not have restrictions.
Sorry to make this point again but planning has come up and it's my area.
Yes, they should. You don't want them plonked in the middle of a school playing field, the flight path of an airport, or in a cemetery.
Come on. This anti-NIMBY stuff is starting to get a bit silly.
You don't need planning to deal with the former or the latter, the owners of the field or cemetery should determine what is appropriate with their own land. No need for NIMBYs to stick their oars in.
As for flight paths, flight safety is already dealt with separately under specific regulations, again no need for nosy neighbours to get involved.
So it's only the regulations that you personally don't like that should be ignored?
No, regulations should be set by the law, debated in Parliament.
Then people should be free to liberally do whatever they please within the law, without their neighbours having a say.
The origins of our legal system lie in creating a more peaceful way to resolve disputes than violent blood feuds. In a similar way, our planning system has to accommodate the reality that most people do care about what their neighbours do with their land.
Having some rules, and a process, around it helps to ameliorate frustration and bad feeling, and reduces the likelihood of a dispute leading to violence.
While I can respect that you hold this idealistic position that posits they people shouldn't care, do you not acknowledge the value of a planning system to deal with the reality that people do care?
No.
People may care that new homes affects their view or whatever other crap, or that it devalues their property.
But tough shit.
People need somewhere to live. That trumps anyone else's desire to artificially inflate their property value, or maintain a pristine view over land they don't own that is not theirs.
New Goverment says that will double the amount of houses the current lot have built per year.
An ever green statement that was true in 2019, and 2017, and 2015, and 2010; as well as in 1997 and 2007.
The weather is lovely today, lots of sport on TV, and then there is politics
I would just say I have accepted the result will see a landslide Starmer government and the conservative party can have no complaints if they are marginalised
I hope Starmer proves better than is expected as he is likely to be PM for a long time, but then events happen so who knows
I am looking forward to my wife and my 2 trips up Snowdon and on the Welsh Highland Railway next month and only have one question that really is a mystery to me and no doubt many others
Why on earth did Sunak suddenly call an election :
Concern the economy will be poorer in the Autumn
Expected an imminent vonc
Just wanted out
No doubt in time all will be revealed but to those who bet good luck, to those who have waited for a labour government your time is here, and to those of us who are one nation conservatives pray that Farage is consigned to the dustbin of history
Good afternoon Big G.
I’m enjoying the ladies tennis from Eastbourne. Katie Boulter just posted up a good win against Ostapenko. You can get 50/1 on Katie for Wimbledon or if you shop around 70 or 80/1. Still 30/1 on Emma Raducanu. The reason that Katie price might be worth a punt is that she’s in great form, winning her first WTA titles and entering the world top 30.
Anyway, back to your post, have a lovely time up on Snowdon next month. What fun.
Thanks Heathener
Actually I am watching England v New Zealand women's cricket with NZ all out for 156 after 33.3 overs
My mother was a fantastic cricket fan and scored each match in those wonderful old books in the 1950s and she encouraged me to join the cricket club and be coached when I was just 7
It would be good to see Katie or Emma do well at Wimbledon and tennis was the reason my wife and I began our 60 year love affair as we were drawn in the Edinburgh inter office Insurance competition to play together in mixed doubles and she was a very good tennis player mainly because the tennis courts were immediate behind her family home in Lossiemouth
We cannot venture far anymore so our 2 trips up Snowdon and our trip on the Welsh Highland Railway are certainly highlights for us as we haven't been to the summit of Snowdon in 40 years
I posted this previously as it really does show how much we have to offer here in North Wales to the visitor
Goodwin thinks Reform may have been damaged by Farage's Ukraine comments which is significant coming from him.
It does play into the idea that Farage is most comfortable hanging around with the bad boys.
The Rest is Politics summed it up well this week: Farage and his ilk believe their own bullshit and assume everybody else does too deep down but most are too cowed to admit it. Whereas in reality these (e,g, Putin is right) are distinctly minority views.
I agree. But Adolf Hitler only needed 33% of the vote to seize power. Say Reform are 15 to 20% now if there is further economic deterioraion the next few years you may be able to add another 10% to 15% to that.
Thank you. For we visual learners that’s very helpful x
It's also good that, between all the regular polling, the exit poll, the estimated declaration times and when the threshold is broken in cumulative seats we increasingly don't need to actually bother with the election or waiting for the results itself.
A bit like we're heading to those sci-fi novels where they've eliminated real war because it's all simulated to death virtually first.
I'm surprised, given the strong IT contingent, that nobody on PB has marketed ElectionCampaignSimulator (with options for Apple, PC and ZX).
Phone masts in urban areas should not have restrictions.
Sorry to make this point again but planning has come up and it's my area.
Yes, they should. You don't want them plonked in the middle of a school playing field, the flight path of an airport, or in a cemetery.
Come on. This anti-NIMBY stuff is starting to get a bit silly.
You don't need planning to deal with the former or the latter, the owners of the field or cemetery should determine what is appropriate with their own land. No need for NIMBYs to stick their oars in.
As for flight paths, flight safety is already dealt with separately under specific regulations, again no need for nosy neighbours to get involved.
So it's only the regulations that you personally don't like that should be ignored?
No, regulations should be set by the law, debated in Parliament.
Then people should be free to liberally do whatever they please within the law, without their neighbours having a say.
The origins of our legal system lie in creating a more peaceful way to resolve disputes than violent blood feuds. In a similar way, our planning system has to accommodate the reality that most people do care about what their neighbours do with their land.
Having some rules, and a process, around it helps to ameliorate frustration and bad feeling, and reduces the likelihood of a dispute leading to violence.
While I can respect that you hold this idealistic position that posits they people shouldn't care, do you not acknowledge the value of a planning system to deal with the reality that people do care?
No, Barty doesn't recognise their right to care.
They can care, bitch and moan all they please.
But if what is being developed is legal and by consenting adults on their own land it should be allowed and objections should have no say at all.
Just as if people object to a gay couple, or interracial couple, they should be allowed to care but not have the right to get involved and object to what consenting adults do on their own land.
There's a difference between what people do as an activity and what they do to change the environment.
I wonder what first attracted this chap to Nigel Farage?
Reform candidate Leslie Lilley said he would ‘slaughter migrants’
The 70-year-old conspiracy theorist who is likely to reap 20 per cent of the vote in Southend East & Rochford is Facebook friends with the fascist leader Gary Raikes
A Reform candidate said he would “slaughter” migrants arriving on small boats and “have their family taken out”.
Leslie Lilley, who is set to win almost 20 per cent of the vote in the Labour battleground seat of Southend East & Rochford, made the threats on the official Facebook account he uses to run his local campaign.
In a post in June 2020, Lilley reacted to the news of a small boat arriving in Dover saying: “I hope I’m near one of these scumbags one day I won’t run away I’ll slaughter them then have their family taken out.”
The same month, Lilley, now 70, railed against “more scum entering the UK”, adding “I hope your family get Robbed, Beaten or attacked”.
He also suggested Border Force vessels should have razor wire to tear small boats carrying migrants across the Channel, and commented “gas” along with several laughing emojis under a video of Muslims praying.
Lilley, who has also argued that the pandemic was a plan to “depopulate the world” and was “mass murder by government”, is one of the 41 Reform UK candidates who are “friends” on Facebook with Gary Raikes, the fascist leader.
I seriously think I’m going to set up a UK political vetting company.
I am really worried about this Country, worried about the amount of people who are willing to vote for Farage's bunch of crackpots and racists, even after hearing views like this, and particularly worried about 2029, when Farage and his like could be very near the levers of power, I really hope the Tory party gets it act in gear, and as Big G said, become a one nation conservative party again, but I fear the worst
The only way that the like of Farage (and a whole lot worse) get defeated, is for the more mainsteam parties to actually listen to what their supporters are saying, and materially make their life better. Many of those voting for Farage feel they have no mainstream voice supporting them.
I’m reminded of the famous Michael Moore video from 2016, where he explains to a coastal liberal audience why people in ‘left-behind’ communities are voting for Trump in huge numbers. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=vMm5HfxNXY4
Phone masts in urban areas should not have restrictions.
Sorry to make this point again but planning has come up and it's my area.
Yes, they should. You don't want them plonked in the middle of a school playing field, the flight path of an airport, or in a cemetery.
Come on. This anti-NIMBY stuff is starting to get a bit silly.
You don't need planning to deal with the former or the latter, the owners of the field or cemetery should determine what is appropriate with their own land. No need for NIMBYs to stick their oars in.
As for flight paths, flight safety is already dealt with separately under specific regulations, again no need for nosy neighbours to get involved.
So it's only the regulations that you personally don't like that should be ignored?
No, regulations should be set by the law, debated in Parliament.
Then people should be free to liberally do whatever they please within the law, without their neighbours having a say.
The origins of our legal system lie in creating a more peaceful way to resolve disputes than violent blood feuds. In a similar way, our planning system has to accommodate the reality that most people do care about what their neighbours do with their land.
Having some rules, and a process, around it helps to ameliorate frustration and bad feeling, and reduces the likelihood of a dispute leading to violence.
While I can respect that you hold this idealistic position that posits they people shouldn't care, do you not acknowledge the value of a planning system to deal with the reality that people do care?
No, Barty doesn't recognise their right to care.
They can care, bitch and moan all they please.
But if what is being developed is legal and by consenting adults on their own land it should be allowed and objections should have no say at all.
Just as if people object to a gay couple, or interracial couple, they should be allowed to care but not have the right to get involved and object to what consenting adults do on their own land.
There's a difference between what people do as an activity and what they do to change the environment.
Shy Tories. People who lie who they vote for. The do not knows. We know The Tories are very unpopular. Agreed. 50 to 70 seats for them. No. Don't bet on that!
I think that if you polled people on who admits to
a) masturbating b) eating your own bogies c) eating pineapple on pizza d) voting Conservative
then option d) would currently get the lowest number.
But plenty will still do it, despite what they admit in public. (As a Conservative door-knocker, I'm one of the few people inside the loop on what they admit to.)
Broxbourne and Basildon/Billericay are the first big tests of the models
EC Broxbourne 0.3 Con YG Broxbourne 1% Lab NS Broxbourne 2.4% Lab IPSOS Broxbourne 1% Con SAVANTA Broxbourne 4.97% Lab FOCALDATA Broxbourne 2.0% Con More in Common Broxbourne 6.50% Con Survation Broxbourne 1.73% Con
Same MRPs/models
Basildon and Billericay 2.4 Lab Basildon and Billericay 2% Rfm Basildon and Billericay 0.4% Con Basildon and Billericay 5% Lab Basildon and Billericay 6.89% Lab Basildon and Billericay 8.3% Con Basildon and Billericay 8.80% Con Basildon and Billericay 1.89% Lab
Thanks - keeping that.
Swindon South is a comfortably expected Labour gain from all the models. The majority should be between 19 and 27%. East Kilbride and Strathaven the first SNP defense. All but New Statesman have it down as a Labour gain. For Lib Dem fans Harrogate and Knaresborough is the first target of the night.
Shy Tories. People who lie who they vote for. The do not knows. We know The Tories are very unpopular. Agreed. 50 to 70 seats for them. No. Don't bet on that!
I think that if you polled people on who admits to
a) masturbating b) eating your own bogies c) eating pineapple on pizza d) voting Conservative
then option d) would currently get the lowest number.
But plenty will still do it, despite what they admit in public. (As a Conservative door-knocker, I'm one of the few people inside the loop on what they admit to.)
Thank you. For we visual learners that’s very helpful x
It's also good that, between all the regular polling, the exit poll, the estimated declaration times and when the threshold is broken in cumulative seats we increasingly don't need to actually bother with the election or waiting for the results itself.
A bit like we're heading to those sci-fi novels where they've eliminated real war because it's all simulated to death virtually first.
Sorry, you’ve lost me there
Results are all that count. The polls are not going to get close enough to the real answer so we need to trust in our intuition as well.
Shy Tories. People who lie who they vote for. The do not knows. We know The Tories are very unpopular. Agreed. 50 to 70 seats for them. No. Don't bet on that!
I think that if you polled people on who admits to
a) masturbating b) eating your own bogies c) eating pineapple on pizza d) voting Conservative
then option d) would currently get the lowest number.
But plenty will still do it, despite what they admit in public. (As a Conservative door-knocker, I'm one of the few people inside the loop on what they admit to.)
The weather is lovely today, lots of sport on TV, and then there is politics
I would just say I have accepted the result will see a landslide Starmer government and the conservative party can have no complaints if they are marginalised
I hope Starmer proves better than is expected as he is likely to be PM for a long time, but then events happen so who knows
I am looking forward to my wife and my 2 trips up Snowdon and on the Welsh Highland Railway next month and only have one question that really is a mystery to me and no doubt many others
Why on earth did Sunak suddenly call an election :
Concern the economy will be poorer in the Autumn
Expected an imminent vonc
Just wanted out
No doubt in time all will be revealed but to those who bet good luck, to those who have waited for a labour government your time is here, and to those of us who are one nation conservatives pray that Farage is consigned to the dustbin of history
Good afternoon Big G.
I’m enjoying the ladies tennis from Eastbourne. Katie Boulter just posted up a good win against Ostapenko. You can get 50/1 on Katie for Wimbledon or if you shop around 70 or 80/1. Still 30/1 on Emma Raducanu. The reason that Katie price might be worth a punt is that she’s in great form, winning her first WTA titles and entering the world top 30.
Anyway, back to your post, have a lovely time up on Snowdon next month. What fun.
Thanks Heathener
Actually I am watching England v New Zealand women's cricket with NZ all out for 156 after 33.3 overs
My mother was a fantastic cricket fan and scored each match in those wonderful old books in the 1950s and she encouraged me to join the cricket club and be coached when I was just 7
It would be good to see Katie or Emma do well at Wimbledon and tennis was the reason my wife and I began our 60 year love affair as we were drawn in the Edinburgh inter office Insurance competition to play together in mixed doubles and she was a very good tennis player mainly because the tennis courts were immediate behind her family home in Lossiemouth
We cannot venture far anymore so our 2 trips up Snowdon and our trip on the Welsh Highland Railway are certainly highlights for us as we haven't been to the summit of Snowdon in 40 years
I posted this previously as it really does show how much we have to offer here in North Wales to the visitor
🚨 Manchester United considering selling naming rights to Old Trafford as they seek to drive up revenues as part of Sir Jim Ratcliffe’s plans to refurbish Old Trafford or build a new stadium. Ticket price increases also under consideration.
Broxbourne and Basildon/Billericay are the first big tests of the models
EC Broxbourne 0.3 Con YG Broxbourne 1% Lab NS Broxbourne 2.4% Lab IPSOS Broxbourne 1% Con SAVANTA Broxbourne 4.97% Lab FOCALDATA Broxbourne 2.0% Con More in Common Broxbourne 6.50% Con Survation Broxbourne 1.73% Con
Same MRPs/models
Basildon and Billericay 2.4 Lab Basildon and Billericay 2% Rfm Basildon and Billericay 0.4% Con Basildon and Billericay 5% Lab Basildon and Billericay 6.89% Lab Basildon and Billericay 8.3% Con Basildon and Billericay 8.80% Con Basildon and Billericay 1.89% Lab
Thank you, and you everyone else doing these spreadsheets.There’s going to be money made on here again isn’t there?
If a lot of us do well, a donate button for the site feels overdue, but also maybe a way to buy a notional beer for the various spreadsheet builders.
Phone masts in urban areas should not have restrictions.
Sorry to make this point again but planning has come up and it's my area.
Yes, they should. You don't want them plonked in the middle of a school playing field, the flight path of an airport, or in a cemetery.
Come on. This anti-NIMBY stuff is starting to get a bit silly.
You don't need planning to deal with the former or the latter, the owners of the field or cemetery should determine what is appropriate with their own land. No need for NIMBYs to stick their oars in.
As for flight paths, flight safety is already dealt with separately under specific regulations, again no need for nosy neighbours to get involved.
So it's only the regulations that you personally don't like that should be ignored?
No, regulations should be set by the law, debated in Parliament.
Then people should be free to liberally do whatever they please within the law, without their neighbours having a say.
The origins of our legal system lie in creating a more peaceful way to resolve disputes than violent blood feuds. In a similar way, our planning system has to accommodate the reality that most people do care about what their neighbours do with their land.
Having some rules, and a process, around it helps to ameliorate frustration and bad feeling, and reduces the likelihood of a dispute leading to violence.
While I can respect that you hold this idealistic position that posits they people shouldn't care, do you not acknowledge the value of a planning system to deal with the reality that people do care?
No, Barty doesn't recognise their right to care.
They can care, bitch and moan all they please.
But if what is being developed is legal and by consenting adults on their own land it should be allowed and objections should have no say at all.
Just as if people object to a gay couple, or interracial couple, they should be allowed to care but not have the right to get involved and object to what consenting adults do on their own land.
There's a difference between what people do as an activity and what they do to change the environment.
Why is there?
If its their own land, what difference is there?
You're taking the "someone's freedom to swing their fist stops where my nose begins" argument to the extreme where they are forced to tolerate being surrounded by antisocial behaviour. It's a profoundly unconservative position.
Nice header, but why do you/we focus on the bad polls for the Tories?
I accept that Ipsos and Survation have some pedigree, but Varian, JLP and MiC are all solid enough and members of the BPC. I appreciate that even they are not so great for the Blue team, but they do at least feed a little life into what otherwise would be the dried out corpse of the outgoing government.
The question is why are we seeing such a wide divergence (the gap between 18% and 25% is vast in statistical terms). Is it methodology, sampling, weighting, re-allocation of Don't Knows?
I pointed to a huge discrepency in the over 65 vote shares between More In Common (40% for the Conservatives) and R&W (25%).
JL Partners has 43% Conservative share among the over 65s which explains its higher Conservative VI.
I saw something on Twitter that was saying some pollsters were accounting for some of the older Tory vote dying off since 2019, and some weren’t.
Didn’t look into it too much but that could explain a lot if it differs between pollsters?
The bigger issue for the MRPs is that the census data they use to back-project their poll findings and analysis onto each constituency are often quite old.
When you look at by-election swings, the Lib Dems have mahoosively outperformed Labour (Even though Labour had some very good swings this parliament). I think the yellows could be in for a very good night indeed.
I dare not jinx it but getting my hopes up. Done that too often.
I'll be relieved if we go above 20 seats, happy if we get 25+ and delirious if we beat the SNP into 3rd place.
I worry for you when the LDs beat the Tories into 2nd.
Yes I still think this bet at 4.5 is stunning value. If tactical voting is anything like all the indications suggest it will be, the LDs should have a good shot at getting over the line.
Not a chance. Even on the MRPs which generally show worse seat numbers than UNS the Tories are generally getting comfortably over 100 seats. And there remain at least 2 or 3 percentage points of Reform left to squeeze even if the Ref vote holds up much higher than in recent local elections.
That's simply factually wrong.
The MRP average is 98 seats or just over 100 if you exclude electoral calculus. Half are over and half under 100 seats. The remainder of your statement might be true but the bit in bold is codswallop.
The ones I can see from the last few days are: Yougov (Tories on 108), Focaldata (110), Ipsos (115), Survation (72) and Savanta (52) - I'd missed Savanta but it and Survation both look like big outliers. I assume there must be others given your codswallop comment.
Some of you may have noticed I've been following the recent spate of late-period directors doing what might be their last or last-ish movies, and how they reflect their past career. Ridley Scott did a beautifully-shot highly-polished sack of shit, Spielberg did a sentimental tale about an American family and film, Scorsese did an organised crime movie starring Robert DeNiro, and so on.
Frances Ford Coppola's Megalopolis will be out soon and it will be shit-and-brilliant-and-unique at the same time. But today's object of interest is Robert Zemeckis, who has consistently experimented with tech with...highly mixed results. His latest, "Here", involves a fixed camera, one set, and de-aging their older cast to see the evolution of a family from courtship thru marriage, family, retirement (and presumably death). Might actually be good.
Broxbourne and Basildon/Billericay are the first big tests of the models
EC Broxbourne 0.3 Con YG Broxbourne 1% Lab NS Broxbourne 2.4% Lab IPSOS Broxbourne 1% Con SAVANTA Broxbourne 4.97% Lab FOCALDATA Broxbourne 2.0% Con More in Common Broxbourne 6.50% Con Survation Broxbourne 1.73% Con
Same MRPs/models
Basildon and Billericay 2.4 Lab Basildon and Billericay 2% Rfm Basildon and Billericay 0.4% Con Basildon and Billericay 5% Lab Basildon and Billericay 6.89% Lab Basildon and Billericay 8.3% Con Basildon and Billericay 8.80% Con Basildon and Billericay 1.89% Lab
Thank you, and you everyone else doing these spreadsheets.There’s going to be money made on here again isn’t there?
If a lot of us do well, a donate button for the site feels overdue, but also maybe a way to buy a notional beer for the various spreadsheet builders.
@Andy_JS did a spreadsheet for the 2016 referendum, that made many of us here a lot of money. If we should ever meet, he will leave very drunk and not having bought a single drink. 🍻
I wonder what first attracted this chap to Nigel Farage?
Reform candidate Leslie Lilley said he would ‘slaughter migrants’
The 70-year-old conspiracy theorist who is likely to reap 20 per cent of the vote in Southend East & Rochford is Facebook friends with the fascist leader Gary Raikes
A Reform candidate said he would “slaughter” migrants arriving on small boats and “have their family taken out”.
Leslie Lilley, who is set to win almost 20 per cent of the vote in the Labour battleground seat of Southend East & Rochford, made the threats on the official Facebook account he uses to run his local campaign.
In a post in June 2020, Lilley reacted to the news of a small boat arriving in Dover saying: “I hope I’m near one of these scumbags one day I won’t run away I’ll slaughter them then have their family taken out.”
The same month, Lilley, now 70, railed against “more scum entering the UK”, adding “I hope your family get Robbed, Beaten or attacked”.
He also suggested Border Force vessels should have razor wire to tear small boats carrying migrants across the Channel, and commented “gas” along with several laughing emojis under a video of Muslims praying.
Lilley, who has also argued that the pandemic was a plan to “depopulate the world” and was “mass murder by government”, is one of the 41 Reform UK candidates who are “friends” on Facebook with Gary Raikes, the fascist leader.
I seriously think I’m going to set up a UK political vetting company.
I am really worried about this Country, worried about the amount of people who are willing to vote for Farage's bunch of crackpots and racists, even after hearing views like this, and particularly worried about 2029, when Farage and his like could be very near the levers of power, I really hope the Tory party gets it act in gear, and as Big G said, become a one nation conservative party again, but I fear the worst
The only way that the like of Farage (and a whole lot worse) get defeated, is for the more mainsteam parties to actually listen to what their supporters are saying, and materially make their life better. Many of those voting for Farage feel they have no mainstream voice supporting them.
I’m reminded of the famous Michael Moore video from 2016, where he explains to a coastal liberal audience why people in ‘left-behind’ communities are voting for Trump in huge numbers. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=vMm5HfxNXY4
Comments
(The word on the street is that planning can be acquired for most things for a sum not unadjacent to £45k. Using the right fixer...)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LMkmeqdSuJQ
It's "NIMBY SCUM" who are the main obstacle to improved cycling provision across the UK. I'm glad to have your energy and commitment on our side.
What election night might look like, based on PA's expected declaration times and the FT projection model http://ft.com/projection
https://x.com/martinstabe/status/1805882759346344132
"...The PA news agency have a bit more detail on the comments from David Tennant and Kemi Badenoch. Tennant won a prize for being a “celebrity ally” at the British LGBT awards last week and used his speech to target the equalities minister. Badenoch has faced criticism over her approach to trans rights.
Tennant said in his acceptance speech:
"...If I’m honest I’m a little depressed by the fact that acknowledging that everyone has the right to be who they want to be and live their life how they want to live it as long as they’re not hurting anyone else should merit any kind of special award or special mention, because it’s common sense, isn’t it? It is human decency. We shouldn’t live in a world where that is worth remarking on. However, until we wake up and Kemi Badenoch doesn’t exist any more – I don’t wish ill of her, I just wish her to shut up – whilst we do live in this world, I am honoured to receive this...”
In response to Tennant’s comments, Badenoch said:
"...I will not shut up. I will not be silenced by men who prioritise applause from Stonewall over the safety of women and girls. A rich, lefty, white male celebrity so blinded by ideology he can’t see the optics of attacking the only black woman in government by calling publicly for my existence to end. Tennant is one of Labour’s celebrity supporters. This is an early example of what life will be like if they win. Keir Starmer stood by while Rosie Duffield was hounded. He and his supporters will do the same with the country. Do not let the bigots and bullies win...”
Good grief. But it instantly reminds me of cleaning up archaeological or palaeontological finds with various tools. Very rewarding.
There have been several applications for flats in the mews behind us, some of which would "loom" (not my words) over our and neighbours' gardens. Every time they are objected to, no matter how reasonable the application. I risk being ostracised every time I so much as demur on the basis I am perfectly happy with the development and we need new housing.
However I don't think I should get a say in trying to block it if it happens.
I oppose NIMBY scum. And that cuts both ways. I am consistent on that.
On a road near me the Council built a new expressway that goes through town at 50mph alleviating all the traffic that were using what was previously the A-road as a through road. When that opened they turned the old A-road from a 30mph road with 2 lanes heading towards Liverpool to a 20mph with only 1 lane each way and a dedicated 2-way cycle track too.
Everyone wins that way. Through traffic is moving at 50mph not 30mph through town, local conditions are actually clearer since t he through traffic isn't getting stopped at local traffic lights anymore and the cyclists have their own track. Win/win/win.
"A civil servant robot working for a council in South Korea was found unresponsive after apparently throwing itself down a flight of stairs, with locals now mourning the country's first robot suicide."
https://mol.im/a/13571283
"...Freedom of speech is the most powerful feature of our democracy. If you’re calling for women to shut up and wishing they didn’t exist, you are the problem..."
https://x.com/RishiSunak/status/1805862183626031297
The logical problems inherent in telling somebody to shut up by telling them not to say that somebody else should shut up seems not to occur to him.
@Leon suffers the same delusion.
Gets a bit weird on the later levels. I caught him cleaning the Roswell spacecraft...
Having some rules, and a process, around it helps to ameliorate frustration and bad feeling, and reduces the likelihood of a dispute leading to violence.
While I can respect that you hold this idealistic position that posits they people shouldn't care, do you not acknowledge the value of a planning system to deal with the reality that people do care?
I assume modern lawn mowing simulator games are a much closer proxy to the real thing, though.
Edit - helps if you read the article first which actually states this
People may care that new homes affects their view or whatever other crap, or that it devalues their property.
But tough shit.
People need somewhere to live. That trumps anyone else's desire to artificially inflate their property value, or maintain a pristine view over land they don't own that is not theirs.
*aka low-life fuckers...
'Recreating the act of trimming grass is nothing new. Advanced Lawnmower Simulator for the ZX Spectrum came free on a Your Sinclair magazine cover tape in 1988. Written as an April fool joke by writer Duncan MacDonald, [...].'
This is important when it comes to working out what happens post-election.
I also remember Trashman for the C64, which was all the excitement of following the bin lorry emptying the bins.
"...Not all Black women think the same. I agree with David Tennant. That's it, that's the tweet."
https://x.com/DawnButlerBrent/status/1805854368790433928
So we have Dawn Butler telling Rishi Sunak to shut up about Kemi Badenoch telling David Tennant to shut up about David Tennant telling Kemi Badenoch to shut up.
Lucky there's no election campaign going on, otherwise they'd be far too busy to get involved with this.
Save a fortune and no one gets to build anything without the Lord of the Manors say so and if you sell hour house, the Lord of the Manor gets a veto over who buys it, preventing undesirable sorts moving into the area.
a) masturbating
b) eating your own bogies
c) eating pineapple on pizza
d) voting Conservative
then option d) would currently get the lowest number.
But plenty will still do it, despite what they admit in public. (As a Conservative door-knocker, I'm one of the few people inside the loop on what they admit to.)
I'd forgotten she existed.
There is no value to me in the planning system and it should be abolished.
People should be free to do whatever they want with their own land within the law, with their neighbours getting no say, involvement, or advance notice its happening.
Just abolish the lot of it. How much clearer can I be?
As for your absurd hypothetical, I've already said if its on their land I couldn't care less. Their land, their choice.
Joke!
I did hear a revealing conversation among younger populist right figures. They were bemoaning how so many of the up and coming types of that persuasion in the UK were hoping to end up in the US where there is obviously lots more money to be made.
Nicholas Lissack @NicholasLissack 2h
Replying to @RishiSunak
Over 3,000 people were arrested for social media posts last year, marking a nearly 50% increase in just two years! Stop lying – you don't believe in free speech!! #VoteReformUK
https://nitter.poast.org/NicholasLissack/status/1805925267535167615#m
Whilst unsurprised, I am saddened by this. Has anybody got a source for the 3,000 number?
Bobby Dean is the Lib Dem candidate in Tom Brake's old seat of Carshalton & Wallington. It was very close last time so unless there's a big outer-London surge for the Tories it should fall this time. But it's not typical Lib Dem land - it's not dissimilar in some ways from places like Bexley or Bromley.
https://x.com/Bobby_Dean/status/1805966130059596033
I think Bobby will be very influential in the parliamentary party. He is unusual: properly working class in a generally very bourgeois party, very much to the left on economic issues including tax and spend. A Liberal rather than Labour mainly because of actual policies rather than ancestral tribalism. Not an ideological remainer. He's about as "red wall" as you get in the Lib Dems.
He used to live around here so I know him well from the local party. Definitely one to watch, along with his friend Josh Babarinde (Eastbourne).
The MRP average is 98 seats or just over 100 if you exclude electoral calculus. Half are over and half under 100 seats. The remainder of your statement might be true but the bit in bold is codswallop.
Neighbour feuds turning nasty should be dealt with the same way as any other antisocial behaviour is.
We already have laws against intimidation and violence.
In fact if you look at the raw data in a lot of these polls before certain adjustments it can look even worse for the Tories!
Alex Wickham
@alexwickham
How the Tories could lose a load of seats along the west Thames to the Lib Dems — including 140-year Conservative stronghold Henley — in part due to fury over sewage-infested waters
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-uk-election-sewage/?srnd=homepage-uk
Edit: I see you added "joke"!
Actually I am watching England v New Zealand women's cricket with NZ all out for 156 after 33.3 overs
My mother was a fantastic cricket fan and scored each match in those wonderful old books in the 1950s and she encouraged me to join the cricket club and be coached when I was just 7
It would be good to see Katie or Emma do well at Wimbledon and tennis was the reason my wife and I began our 60 year love affair as we were drawn in the Edinburgh inter office Insurance competition to play together in mixed doubles and she was a very good tennis player mainly because the tennis courts were immediate behind her family home in Lossiemouth
We cannot venture far anymore so our 2 trips up Snowdon and our trip on the Welsh Highland Railway are certainly highlights for us as we haven't been to the summit of Snowdon in 40 years
I posted this previously as it really does show how much we have to offer here in North Wales to the visitor
https://www.festrail.co.uk/
A bit like we're heading to those sci-fi novels where they've eliminated real war because it's all simulated to death virtually first.
EC Broxbourne 0.3 Con
YG Broxbourne 1% Lab
NS Broxbourne 2.4% Lab
IPSOS Broxbourne 1% Con
SAVANTA Broxbourne 4.97% Lab
FOCALDATA Broxbourne 2.0% Con
More in Common Broxbourne 6.50% Con
Survation Broxbourne 1.73% Con
Same MRPs/models
Basildon and Billericay 2.4 Lab
Basildon and Billericay 2% Rfm
Basildon and Billericay 0.4% Con
Basildon and Billericay 5% Lab
Basildon and Billericay 6.89% Lab
Basildon and Billericay 8.3% Con
Basildon and Billericay 8.80% Con
Basildon and Billericay 1.89% Lab
*Unless you wear shoes with no socks, do your top button up without a tie, or own a hipster beard; in which case you die.
But if what is being developed is legal and by consenting adults on their own land it should be allowed and objections should have no say at all.
Just as if people object to a gay couple, or interracial couple, they should be allowed to care but not have the right to get involved and object to what consenting adults do on their own land.
Enjoy the cricket this afternoon. I may cross over from the tennis!
And you’re tempting me to North Wales before too long. I hope it’s a wonderful trip.
I told her if she votes Labour she is voting for continuation Tory and will have a lot more to regret.
She sent me a photo of her PV 5 mins later.
She voted Green.
I’m reminded of the famous Michael Moore video from 2016, where he explains to a coastal liberal audience why people in ‘left-behind’ communities are voting for Trump in huge numbers. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=vMm5HfxNXY4
If its their own land, what difference is there?
East Kilbride and Strathaven the first SNP defense. All but New Statesman have it down as a Labour gain.
For Lib Dem fans Harrogate and Knaresborough is the first target of the night.
And please consider North Wales for your travels - it is a wonderful area to visit with so much beautiful scenery and attractions
If a lot of us do well, a donate button for the site feels overdue, but also maybe a way to buy a notional beer for the various spreadsheet builders.
Shame on you BJO.
On BBC News its Sunaks and SKS's pants.
I will stick with ITV4
Frances Ford Coppola's Megalopolis will be out soon and it will be shit-and-brilliant-and-unique at the same time. But today's object of interest is Robert Zemeckis, who has consistently experimented with tech with...highly mixed results. His latest, "Here", involves a fixed camera, one set, and de-aging their older cast to see the evolution of a family from courtship thru marriage, family, retirement (and presumably death). Might actually be good.
Trailer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I_id-SkGU2k
PHW on Zemeckis: https://youtu.be/JKe8qCzPdkI?si=qdj18MWKsnPmeHlP&t=20
https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1983/2/section/66