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8 days to go and Ipsos brings no good news for the Tories – politicalbetting.com
8 days to go and Ipsos brings no good news for the Tories – politicalbetting.com
?NEW from @IpsosUK: Lab lead at 23/ Cons at joint record lowest share since 1978 ?Labour 42% (-1)Conservative 19% (-4)Reform UK 15% (+6) = highest with IpsosLib Dems 11% (+3)Greens 7% (-2)1402 GB adults by phone 21-24 Jun+/- from 31 May- 4 Junhttps://t.co/oaeX29zwGz
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A stronger argument for PR would be difficult to find
https://x.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1805909534042456302/photo/1
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/06/25/when-something-is-both-little-and-large/
Con - 42
Lab - 501
Lib - 57
Ref - 3
Green - 2
Lab Majority 352.
A lot of people think ‘they will inevitably end up on 150-200 seats’ or close to that - but all indicators are so, so much worse for them than at comparable elections where they put up a decent showing on polling day itself.
I still think the Tories finishing 3rd in seats is very, very much in play.
I think Labour will probably end up at around 450 seats, but we’ve seen 500+ indicated in a lot of polls now. It would be one thing if it was one outlier but there’s been lots.
Obviously Baxter isn’t perfect but it really wouldn’t take much from where we are currently at to get to 500+ on the day.
Feels more like a 5/1 or 6/1 shot to me.
The total destruction of the British Tories
An absolute parliamentary majority for the hard/far right in France
The re-election of POTUS Trump: and this time he means it
Perhaps we are all being simplistic in our analyses of political evolutions. Its not just a “rightwards surge” but nor is it “a nuanced mixed picture”
It’s not mixed at all. The voters are reaching for evermore extreme solutions and radical punishments. Mostly that’s far/hard right to punish incumbents but absolutely not always: see the UK
But everywhere there is anger and a willingness to think the unthinkable
IIRC, Postal votes were about 1 in every 5 in 2019 GE.
1) Do we have a rough sense on what it will be this year? Probably higher post COVID?
2) Can we guess roughly how many ballots have already been cast? I have a few older relatives who sent theirs off the day after they received them - I imagine a lot of postal voters do the same?
Interesting to consider that a lot of things like Gamblegate / Putingate might not be in the minds of voters who have already cast their ballots…
So for the claim to be true there would have to be with either of these results about 130 seats where the difference between the Tory and Lab (being first and second between them) averaged 1000 votes are thereabouts; and all 130 were won by the Tory (for a hung parliament) or Labour (for a supermajority). This won't happen, nor anything like it.
Meanwhile, ITN have Ozzy and Ballzy – two of the finest political pundits and a great double act.
DYOR.
FPT
Afternoon all
Financing local Government is one of those issues which nobody, if they've got any sense, wants to go anywhere near. The fact we are dealing with a hastily imposed settlement brought in as a result of the overthrow of Margaret Thatcher speaks volumes.
30+ years on and the consequences of that stupidity are clear. We have a banding system which bears little or no resemblance to the value of the properties to which it relates and the main reason for its creation - to allow local authorities to fund themselves without having to rely on central Government largesse - has also failed to be addressed.
In some authorites, up to two thirds of expenditure is on the provision of care for vulnerable adults and children as well on children with Special Education Needs (SEN). SEN referrals have increased exponentially since the end of lockdown but the provision of suitable teaching accommodation and the supply of qualified teachers has not. The funding of transport for SEN children is a particular area of concern with many authorities cutting it for children over sixteen.
The central question is what do you want local councils to do? In theory, adult social care could be taken out of local authority control and run by a national care agency which would ensure adequate levels of residential care, specialist (including dementia) care and domiciliary care across the country based on the maxim the older population should be treated with respect and dignity and the care offer should provide that. At the same time, the agency should be promoting in-family care where possible and acting as a positive help for carers of all ages and types. Caring should be viewed as a vital part of family life and carers should be encouraged as much as possible (employers hsould be given huge tax breaks to employ carers).
How do you fund the rest of local Government? With the pressure off in terms of care, other functions can be looked at - we need local community hubs where a range of services and advice are available and very often just a place for the lonely and the alone to go and meet other people. This needs to be a 24 hour a day, seven day a week service provision - the message being if you're lonely, you don't have to be alone.
How this society deals with the alone and the lonely is reprehensible and a shame to us all. Sport, for example, should be leading on this getting people out and about providing free or discounted admission so those who have no social life can have the opportunity to live a little.
Back to funding? @Sandpit rails against property taxation and the truth is there is no fair form of local Government funding. The truth is those with high value properties are doing very well out of the current system and any changes will disadvantage them (and they will whinge) and benefit the providers of Council Tax software (who won't).
But there were other things in people's minds. Mr Sunak has done well in keeping a steady flow of new stories and issues.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/06/26/sir-keir-starmer-about-discover-just-how-lucky-he-really-is/
CBBTGRTF: the travails of the economy are somewhat overstated, and Labour will a) have slightly more room to manoeuvre than many think, and b) may also benefit from investment flight from the travails in France and the rest of Europe.
The bragging rights if it actually comes in on the night are worth far more ;-)
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/sites/default/files/2020-05/UKPGE%202019-%20Electoral%20Data-Website.xlsx&ved=2ahUKEwijr4q-mPmGAxWKSEEAHYw7CIsQFnoECBgQAQ&usg=AOvVaw0pXGxmVyghaXYB44vCw9wr
The Sunderland seats had over 40% postal, with the lowest outside Northern Ireland in Birmingham just below 10% (Ruislip is an outlier at 7%).
As far as the Conservatives, we have JL Partners and More In Common who hold out at 25% while the others are all around 20% (plus or minus two). I've considered ahy this might be looking at some of the data - as to who is right, we have the @MarqueeMark sub sample which claims all the "oldies and crumblies" are being ignored by the pollsters but will stay loyal to the Conservatives while you have the pollsters who disagree.
The three Survation polls for GMB are fascinating - in the last three weeks, the Conservatives have dropped five from 23 to 18, Labour has remained unchanged, the LDs are up two, Reform up two and Others (could be pro-Gaza Independents?) up three.
The cherry on the top is killing off local politics, so that local busybodies never get any power.
I haven't forgotten a visit to the bookshop - later in the year, my friend.
And they are so much better, even factoring into account the bewildered idiocy of Robert Peston. And still the BBC win.
Con 18 to 25
Lab 37 to 43
LD 9 to 13
Ref 13 to 19
Green 5 to 9
SNP 2 to 5
This assumes STV in multi-member constituencies, which allows the constituency link to be maintained..
Con 21.5
Lab 40
LD 11
Ref 16
Green 7
SNP 3.5
ITV tend to announce many of the results faster - they don't wait for the declarations - albeit this time around there may be less in it where there are fewer safe seats. The other side of that though is that they show fewer declarations in favour of studio chat.
BBC (and Sky) have the results as they are declared and as a result tend to show a lot more declarations live, and have the numbers in line with each other.
But if we are all to think inside the box, the box really does need to be rather bigger.
But I don't trust the polls. Neither do you. Neither do those punting on the spreads.
Selective data klaxon!
https://www.global.toshiba/ww/products-solutions/battery/scib.html
They are lower energy density than auto batteries, but much faster charging at high voltages (80% in around ten minutes), have much longer life cycles - and are safer.
Also used in battery powered buses.
Car battery technology is catching up in both speed of recharging and expected usable lifetime, though. And once solid state batteries (which are more resistant to thermal runaway, and therefore much safer) become a commercial proposition, they will take over.
Controversy has now cut through more with public than anger over PM’s D-Day departure, poll shows
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/26/election-betting-scandal-15-conservatives-investigation/
I love democracy!
BONG must be reserved to 10pm, election day.
(Unless you're voting RefUK instead.)
It's a fairly extreme consequence of FPTP, but has little or nothing to do with any sort of thinking the unthinkable type radicalism.
I thought you were sharper than that. Evidently not.
Con 86
Lab 457
LD 56
Ref 4
Grn 2
SNP 21
EXCLUSIVE
🚨 Manchester United considering selling naming rights to Old Trafford as they seek to drive up revenues as part of Sir Jim Ratcliffe’s plans to refurbish Old Trafford or build a new stadium. Ticket price increases also under consideration.
https://x.com/AdamCrafton_/status/1805932992675643541
#Clacton candidate hustings CANCELLED … because every candidate agreed to take part, with the exception of #Farage, who is happy to stand in front of a chosen Reform audience … but terrified of facing the actual residents of #Clacton.
https://x.com/jdpoc/status/1805674424714096782
Nice header, but why do you/we focus on the bad polls for the Tories?
I accept that Ipsos and Survation have some pedigree, but Varian, JLP and MiC are all solid enough and members of the BPC. I appreciate that even they are not so great for the Blue team, but they do at least feed a little life into what otherwise would be the dried out corpse of the outgoing government.
Now if he ends up building a new stadium he can call that whatever he wants but the ancient crumbling mess that is Old Trafford will always be Old Trafford.
Thus, Britain. It doesn’t get more radical in terms of electoral punishments than everyone under 70 refusing to vote for you so your 200 year old party actually goes extinct even though it won a large majority in the last election
It is absolutely unprecedented. The hatred and scorn is off the dial. The polls are pointing to an extreme solution
https://x.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1805871124388983109
This question cost my office an hour of intense discussion. Lots of dredged up economic theory. How about buying a big issue?
The Survaton poll is diabolical for the Cons. These are not cowboys - they have a very good track record. If this isn't an outlier corrected next time out then we need to consider how Sir Ed will perform at PMQs
Lab +7.5
LD -0.8
Ref +13.9 from Brexit Party GB score
Green +4.3
Con-Lab swing of 15.1%
Con-LD swing of 11.2%
Con-Ref swing of 18.5%
Con-Grn swing of 13.7%
Ouch
NB: I wonder how the Overton Window relates to the Box? Is that how you get in or out before starting your thinking?
23.50% (113) Con
41.44% (451) Lab
11.41% (50) Lib Dem
5.15% (1) Green
15.49% (0) Reform
0.39% Plaid
2.61% (16 between SNP and Plaid)
I pointed to a huge discrepency in the over 65 vote shares between More In Common (40% for the Conservatives) and R&W (25%).
JL Partners has 43% Conservative share among the over 65s which explains its higher Conservative VI.
The only bit you might legitimately describe as 'radical' punishment is on the part those who decide to vote RefUK - and that's probably less than 20% of the electorate.
And is hatred and scorn off the scale ? Scorn levels are considerable, I'll grant you that. I haven't come across all that much hate.
Otherwise it's just an exhausted party getting shafted by FPTP. And since they've benefitted from it for so many years, I feel only a mild twinge of sympathy for the decent conservatives who might be looking at very little representation indeed for their views in the next Parliament.
"Terrified" is overegging it, but I think mine was fair comment.
If I were running in a seat, I'd be campaigning there rather than claiming prior engagements.
What does @RochdalePioneers think ?
Care should be the responsibility of the Department for Health and Social Care.
SEN and other education needs should be the responsibility of the Department for Education.
While planning should be abolished and people should be free to do as they please on their own land, within national guidelines.
What do we need local politicians for? Just abolish them, and save a fortune!