With post-election fun and games in mind, Farage's description of Johnson as the worst ever PM today was pretty interesting. Not sure that's a strategy to unite the right.
It also suggests he's been comatose for no less than 2 years.
The mail went hard on it all weekend. Still its circulation has collapsed now.
How can you measure the circulation metrics of a newspaper (let alone a Sunday newspaper) in 48 hours you Putin cock polishing fuckwit. We’ve a long noble line of Russian paid bots on here and you’re disgracing their efforts with these efforts that have all the persuasive power of a small fart in a cyclone. Try harder or fuck off.
You have quite a way of putting it but spot on
It’s a style I honed addressing employment tribunals.
We are ignoring the possibility - which I suggested a couple of days ago - that Farageputinukrainegate HAS had an effect but it’s just not showing - because it has killed the reform surge so their vote is now stuck around 15-19
With post-election fun and games in mind, Farage's description of Johnson as the worst ever PM today was pretty interesting. Not sure that's a strategy to unite the right.
I suspect BoJo has gone post politics, he's looking to line his pockets on the speech trail. A few timely interventions from the sidelines perhaps but the rest of it is too much like hard work.
With post-election fun and games in mind, Farage's description of Johnson as the worst ever PM today was pretty interesting. Not sure that's a strategy to unite the right.
I am sure Nadine is furious with Farage attacking her hero
We are ignoring the possibility - which I suggested a couple of days ago - that Farageputinukrainegate HAS had an effect but it’s just not showing - because it has killed the reform surge so their vote is now stuck around 15-19
Without his foolish words he might now be on 20+
There are at least 20% of the population who agree with him though , just because this place is an echo chamber on the subject , not all think like PB "left/right of centre" geeks
In Focaldata MRP, Tories only hold 60 seats by >5%
Labour hold 410 by >5%
I still think on the morning of 4th there will be a very late tory swing back. Once their pencils are hovering over an actual ballot paper...
7 Months ago it was 'The Tories always swingback in the 6 months before an election' then it was 'There'll be swing back to the government once the date is anounced.' Then it was 'There'll be swing back once the manifestos are published'.
Now it's 'There'll be swing back in the voting booths'.
The straws keep on getting thinner...
But then Big G swings back, and look what happens. No wonder there's shy Tories
Which makes him a twat for keeping it going with Bojo.
He should be talking about cost of living.
You said he'd fucked it. On this evidence you were wrong.
He has fucked it. Appealing to a limited audience supporting a murderer and thief is not going to carry the country. This is not the States. Frankly I would see it as our job to face off to cnts like Mad Vlad I'd be disappointed in a PM who wouldnt.
The evidence will be how he can convince voters they might like Marmite after all. He will have to reverse ferret pretty quickly.
To be analytical about it, Farage does seem to arrive in the same place as the MAGA crowd - Biden loves Ukraine, so we hate Ukraine - from a different Journey? Farage journey is EU hatred. He hates the concept of the EU superstate, so is tough on the expansion of the EU superstate. Farage is not selling Putin as good ol tough guy Conservative can’t do any harm, as MAGA leans toward, he is trying to say EU bad, EU expansion kicks someone’s apple cart over and disrupts the order of things.
But kicking apple carts over and disrupting the world order is why EU fans love the EU project isn’t it? That’s its selling point, not weakness?
I think that sleepy, Conservative, Hereford North will be interesting come polling day. Greens have moved from 14s to 6/1 to 3/1 last time I looked. There appears to be a shift by Labour voters to Greens here which has nothing to do with SKS not being left wing enough, but everything to do with the chance to remove Bill Wiggin.
The changes with the last Redfield & Wilton 10,000 sample poll last Monday are Labour -1 and Reform +1 so virtually no move from a large sample poll in a week.
The gender split is interesting - among men, Labour leads Reform 36-20 with Conservatives on 18, LDs on 10% and 7% DKs. Among women, Labour leads Conservatives 40-14 with Reform on 13%, DKs on 13% and LDs on 11%.
On turnout, R&W have 57% Certain and 20% Probable so a turnout in the mid to high 60s seems possible.
Among those likely to vote, Labour has 37.9%, Reform 16.7%, Conservative 15.9%, LDs 10.5% (10.46% so rounded down) and Don't Knows at 9.9%.
Stripping out the DKs puts Labour at 42%, Reform on 18.6%, Conservatives on 17.6%, Liberal Democrats on 11.6%.
It's imprecise but in the last Mega Poll the Conservatives led Reform by five (1306-1301). Now, Reform leads by 1327 to 1260 so a small move to Reform in the last week. Labour has lost ground among men (down from 39 to 36) but up a fraction with women from 39 to 40.
The DKs are up slightly as well - may just be the sample.
We are ignoring the possibility - which I suggested a couple of days ago - that Farageputinukrainegate HAS had an effect but it’s just not showing - because it has killed the reform surge so their vote is now stuck around 15-19
Without his foolish words he might now be on 20+
Agreed. He is putting a cap on potential support. He would have been safer blaming it all on weakness from Obama and Cameron not standing up in 2014 when Crimea was annexed.
From Deltapoll twitter 🚨New Voting Intention🚨 Labour lead by 24 points in our latest poll. Con 19% (-) Lab 43% (-3) Lib Dem 13% (+3) Reform 15% (-1) SNP 2% (-) Green 5% (-) Other 2% (+1) Fieldwork: 21st to 24th June 2024 Sample: 1,568 GB adults (Changes from 14th - 17th June 2024)
I think that sleepy, Conservative, Hereford North will be interesting come polling day. Greens have moved from 14s to 6/1 to 3/1 last time I looked. There appears to be a shift by Labour voters to Greens here which has nothing to do with SKS not being left wing enough, but everything to do with the chance to remove Bill Wiggin.
I think that sleepy, Conservative, Hereford North will be interesting come polling day. Greens have moved from 14s to 6/1 to 3/1 last time I looked. There appears to be a shift by Labour voters to Greens here which has nothing to do with SKS not being left wing enough, but everything to do with the chance to remove Bill Wiggin.
I havn't made many bad bets this election (those where odds have gone against me since betting) but I did a terrible one on the greens getting no seats a month ago
We are ignoring the possibility - which I suggested a couple of days ago - that Farageputinukrainegate HAS had an effect but it’s just not showing - because it has killed the reform surge so their vote is now stuck around 15-19
Without his foolish words he might now be on 20+
Agreed. He is putting a cap on potential support. He would have been safer blaming it all on weakness from Obama and Cameron not standing up in 2014 when Crimea was annexed.
Credit to Nick Robinson for forcing the story.
Farage may still get that late surge as people forget the Ukraine stuff. Who knows. He only needs to take 2-3 more from the Tories and they are finished forever and he can take over
In Focaldata MRP, Tories only hold 60 seats by >5%
Labour hold 410 by >5%
I still think on the morning of 4th there will be a very late tory swing back. Once their pencils are hovering over an actual ballot paper...
7 Months ago it was 'The Tories always swingback in the 6 months before an election' then it was 'There'll be swing back to the government once the date is anounced.' Then it was 'There'll be swing back once the manifestos are published'.
Now it's 'There'll be swing back in the voting booths'.
The straws keep on getting thinner...
I thought we were on to "There'll be swing back in 2029" now?
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
If people voting Conservative also want Starmer in number ten he's going to have a humungous mandate!
Biggest swing ever in 2024 followed by biggest loss ever in 2029.
It's just the mathematics.
It is. But that biggest loss ever could be a good majority. This is also the mathematics.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
If people voting Conservative also want Starmer in number ten he's going to have a humungous mandate!
Unfortunately for Starmer its a mandate for conflicting things, many of which are effectively impossible to achieve in any case.
We are ignoring the possibility - which I suggested a couple of days ago - that Farageputinukrainegate HAS had an effect but it’s just not showing - because it has killed the reform surge so their vote is now stuck around 15-19
Without his foolish words he might now be on 20+
Agreed. He is putting a cap on potential support. He would have been safer blaming it all on weakness from Obama and Cameron not standing up in 2014 when Crimea was annexed.
Credit to Nick Robinson for forcing the story.
Farage may still get that late surge as people forget the Ukraine stuff. Who knows. He only needs to take 2-3 more from the Tories and they are finished forever and he can take over
He may, but its STFU and move on, not pick a fight with Johnson. He has however given himself a monkey on his back when he didnt need to and will have to carry it around.
We are ignoring the possibility - which I suggested a couple of days ago - that Farageputinukrainegate HAS had an effect but it’s just not showing - because it has killed the reform surge so their vote is now stuck around 15-19
Without his foolish words he might now be on 20+
There are at least 20% of the population who agree with him though , just because this place is an echo chamber on the subject , not all think like PB "left/right of centre" geeks
True.
Last nite I was in a car with a couple of Reform voters who were 100% behind Nige.
We are ignoring the possibility - which I suggested a couple of days ago - that Farageputinukrainegate HAS had an effect but it’s just not showing - because it has killed the reform surge so their vote is now stuck around 15-19
Without his foolish words he might now be on 20+
Agreed. He is putting a cap on potential support. He would have been safer blaming it all on weakness from Obama and Cameron not standing up in 2014 when Crimea was annexed.
Credit to Nick Robinson for forcing the story.
Farage may still get that late surge as people forget the Ukraine stuff. Who knows. He only needs to take 2-3 more from the Tories and they are finished forever and he can take over
I think in the end Reform will drop (not in polling) but in vote percentage as their vote farming operation on the day is not established . I think a good bet is the bands on them getting 10-14 % given the above , the fact they are not quite standing in all seats , UKIP standing in some seats will confuse some voters and Northern Island being counted within the percentage votes cast.Even with that I think they will win maybe 5 seats as I think their vote is actually pretty concentrated and not as uniform as seat calculators make out
Which makes him a twat for keeping it going with Bojo.
He should be talking about cost of living.
You said he'd fucked it. On this evidence you were wrong.
He has fucked it. Appealing to a limited audience supporting a murderer and thief is not going to carry the country. This is not the States. Frankly I would see it as our job to face off to cnts like Mad Vlad I'd be disappointed in a PM who wouldnt.
The evidence will be how he can convince voters they might like Marmite after all. He will have to reverse ferret pretty quickly.
To be analytical about it, Farage does seem to arrive in the same place as the MAGA crowd - Biden loves Ukraine, so we hate Ukraine - from a different Journey? Farage journey is EU hatred. He hates the concept of the EU superstate, so is tough on the expansion of the EU superstate. Farage is not selling Putin as good ol tough guy Conservative can’t do any harm, as MAGA leans toward, he is trying to say EU bad, EU expansion kicks someone’s apple cart over and disrupts the order of things.
But kicking apple carts over and disrupting the world order is why EU fans love the EU project isn’t it? That’s its selling point, not weakness?
All they have done is recreate the Austro Hungarian empire - with the Hungarians still being the people who like to mess things up.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
If people voting Conservative also want Starmer in number ten he's going to have a humungous mandate!
Unfortunately for Starmer its a mandate for conflicting things, many of which are effectively impossible to achieve in any case.
He’s going to bring in some vile law forbidding Islamophobia which will be so widely and loosely drawn it will make it impossible to criticise a RELIGION
Thus reversing the Enlightenment once and for all, and bringing back blasphemy laws. You could argue we are there already but starmer will make it formal. An enormous tragedy for the west. We will be no freer than the Chinese
Which makes him a twat for keeping it going with Bojo.
He should be talking about cost of living.
You said he'd fucked it. On this evidence you were wrong.
He has fucked it. Appealing to a limited audience supporting a murderer and thief is not going to carry the country. This is not the States. Frankly I would see it as our job to face off to cnts like Mad Vlad I'd be disappointed in a PM who wouldnt.
The evidence will be how he can convince voters they might like Marmite after all. He will have to reverse ferret pretty quickly.
In Focaldata MRP, Tories only hold 60 seats by >5%
Labour hold 410 by >5%
I still think on the morning of 4th there will be a very late tory swing back. Once their pencils are hovering over an actual ballot paper...
7 Months ago it was 'The Tories always swingback in the 6 months before an election' then it was 'There'll be swing back to the government once the date is anounced.' Then it was 'There'll be swing back once the manifestos are published'.
Now it's 'There'll be swing back in the voting booths'.
The straws keep on getting thinner...
But then Big G swings back, and look what happens. No wonder there's shy Tories
BTW who on here is Leighton Vaughn Williams IRL?
That sounds like an awesome mashup. Pastoral wistfulness with a hint of folktunes meets agonised discordant postmodern. I'd listen to that.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
If people voting Conservative also want Starmer in number ten he's going to have a humungous mandate!
Unfortunately for Starmer its a mandate for conflicting things, many of which are effectively impossible to achieve in any case.
You seem to be cheering on a Starmer Government failure. Firstly, they haven't won yet and let's hope assuming they do they succeed in part. We are currently going backwards, let us pray the decline can at least be arrested.
Labour 42% (–) Reform UK 19% (–) Conservative 18% (–) Lib Dem 12% (+1) Green 6% (+1) SNP 3% (–) Other 2% (+1)
BAXTERED
LAB 501 LIB DEMS 60 CONS 38 REFUK 5 GRN 2
Absolutely disastrous for the conservatives given it includes faragegate. No impact whatsoever on polling.
Welcome GrandCanyon. Are you bit of a wide boy?
It’s impossible for taking Putin’s side in the Ukraine war, like MAGA do, not to hurt Reform by quite a lot actually. British voters are different culture than the MAGA crowd, European, different history, not instinctively isolationist as US history, and political and media establishment that condemns Putin for his crimes. Let’s look again next Monday to see if Ref have dropped quite a lot across all the polls. Like Tory’s 26, Ref no more than 12.
Look at your own post. You had to exaggerate NF's words, because on their own, they're not sufficient to make your case. Everything to do with Ukraine is completely heightened and exaggerated - every bit of the political and media class is totally invested in pushing the 'Putin evil' message, and there is no room for even a little descent. That opens up what I will call a 'common sense gap' for Farage that he can step into, where he can say something fairly mild - something that Boris once said, something not entirely unsupported by the facts of the case; the entire political and media will mobilise against him, and people who are sick of being told what to think will rally to his side.
But Farage is still wrong though. The point of the EU “is” to peel Slavonic states away from Russia allegiance to create a super bloc that abides by democracy, fair capitalism, better living standards, education and infrastructure for everyone.
I think that sleepy, Conservative, Hereford North will be interesting come polling day. Greens have moved from 14s to 6/1 to 3/1 last time I looked. There appears to be a shift by Labour voters to Greens here which has nothing to do with SKS not being left wing enough, but everything to do with the chance to remove Bill Wiggin.
I havn't made many bad bets this election (those where odds have gone against me since betting) but I did a terrible one on the greens getting no seats a month ago
Is that a goner, State?
I'd have though anything from 0-5 would be possible. Personally I think more than two would be very surprising, but I'm not a Green expert.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
If people voting Conservative also want Starmer in number ten he's going to have a humungous mandate!
Biggest swing ever in 2024 followed by biggest loss ever in 2029.
It's just the mathematics.
It is. But that biggest loss ever could be a good majority. This is also the mathematics.
We are ignoring the possibility - which I suggested a couple of days ago - that Farageputinukrainegate HAS had an effect but it’s just not showing - because it has killed the reform surge so their vote is now stuck around 15-19
Without his foolish words he might now be on 20+
Agreed. He is putting a cap on potential support. He would have been safer blaming it all on weakness from Obama and Cameron not standing up in 2014 when Crimea was annexed.
Credit to Nick Robinson for forcing the story.
Farage may still get that late surge as people forget the Ukraine stuff. Who knows. He only needs to take 2-3 more from the Tories and they are finished forever and he can take over
Take over what ?
Even he manages to become a more important loudmouth that's not equal to being in government.
We are ignoring the possibility - which I suggested a couple of days ago - that Farageputinukrainegate HAS had an effect but it’s just not showing - because it has killed the reform surge so their vote is now stuck around 15-19
Without his foolish words he might now be on 20+
Agreed. He is putting a cap on potential support. He would have been safer blaming it all on weakness from Obama and Cameron not standing up in 2014 when Crimea was annexed.
Credit to Nick Robinson for forcing the story.
Farage may still get that late surge as people forget the Ukraine stuff. Who knows. He only needs to take 2-3 more from the Tories and they are finished forever and he can take over
Important caveat for betting purposes. Reform have only 609 candidates to the Tories 631.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
You didn’t vote for that, though. I want to see the end of this incarnation of the Tories, and I’m torn. After seeing and hearing all our local candidates yesterday my heart says LibDem but my head says Labour.
As you suggest, I’ll have a ‘hovering pen’ on Election Day.
Heart always trumps head. It was a stock phrase of X Factor judges - "I'm going with my heart. I'm putting Julio through!"
We are ignoring the possibility - which I suggested a couple of days ago - that Farageputinukrainegate HAS had an effect but it’s just not showing - because it has killed the reform surge so their vote is now stuck around 15-19
Without his foolish words he might now be on 20+
Agreed. He is putting a cap on potential support. He would have been safer blaming it all on weakness from Obama and Cameron not standing up in 2014 when Crimea was annexed.
Credit to Nick Robinson for forcing the story.
Farage may still get that late surge as people forget the Ukraine stuff. Who knows. He only needs to take 2-3 more from the Tories and they are finished forever and he can take over
There's no evidence for any of this nonsense in the polls though is there?
There is a consistent and thread of polls which Baxter to a Tory wipeout - 30-60 seats, Labour towards 500. If it happens we can't say there was no evidence and we weren't warned. I certainly don't think it can't happen.
I realise you know this already, but that could just as well be an artefact of Electoral Calculus as a genuine likely outcome.
That's my worry. Baxtering is unprecedented at these levels
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
You didn’t vote for that, though. I want to see the end of this incarnation of the Tories, and I’m torn. After seeing and hearing all our local candidates yesterday my heart says LibDem but my head says Labour.
As you suggest, I’ll have a ‘hovering pen’ on Election Day.
Heart always trumps head. It was a stock phrase of X Factor judges - "I'm going with my heart. I'm putting Julio through!"
I think that sleepy, Conservative, Hereford North will be interesting come polling day. Greens have moved from 14s to 6/1 to 3/1 last time I looked. There appears to be a shift by Labour voters to Greens here which has nothing to do with SKS not being left wing enough, but everything to do with the chance to remove Bill Wiggin.
I havn't made many bad bets this election (those where odds have gone against me since betting) but I did a terrible one on the greens getting no seats a month ago
Is that a goner, State?
I'd have though anything from 0-5 would be possible. Personally I think more than two would be very surprising, but I'm not a Green expert.
just wouldnt make that bet now I suppose and the odds have drifted to 9/1 from the 6/1 I put it on at
A hen night drink. Campari and soda or kir royale are the acceptable options
I actually wanted a gin and tonic but they’re not allowed to serve hard liquor on the beach
However I am partial to an aperol spritz. They are a great invention - refreshing on a warm evening and with enough alcohol to satisfy the proper drinker - and not too sweet or sour
I remember when I first saw them. In bolzano in the Dolomites about 20-25 years ago. They actually called them “a Veneziano”.
Hah! And I’m right. Just checked. Born in Germanic Italy
Labour 42% (–) Reform UK 19% (–) Conservative 18% (–) Lib Dem 12% (+1) Green 6% (+1) SNP 3% (–) Other 2% (+1)
BAXTERED
LAB 501 LIB DEMS 60 CONS 38 REFUK 5 GRN 2
Absolutely disastrous for the conservatives given it includes faragegate. No impact whatsoever on polling.
Welcome GrandCanyon. Are you bit of a wide boy?
It’s impossible for taking Putin’s side in the Ukraine war, like MAGA do, not to hurt Reform by quite a lot actually. British voters are different culture than the MAGA crowd, European, different history, not instinctively isolationist as US history, and political and media establishment that condemns Putin for his crimes. Let’s look again next Monday to see if Ref have dropped quite a lot across all the polls. Like Tory’s 26, Ref no more than 12.
Look at your own post. You had to exaggerate NF's words, because on their own, they're not sufficient to make your case. Everything to do with Ukraine is completely heightened and exaggerated - every bit of the political and media class is totally invested in pushing the 'Putin evil' message, and there is no room for even a little descent. That opens up what I will call a 'common sense gap' for Farage that he can step into, where he can say something fairly mild - something that Boris once said, something not entirely unsupported by the facts of the case; the entire political and media will mobilise against him, and people who are sick of being told what to think will rally to his side.
But Farage is still wrong though. The point of the EU “is” to peel Slavonic states away from Russia allegiance to create a super bloc that abides by democracy, fair capitalism, better living standards, education and infrastructure for everyone.
In Focaldata MRP, Tories only hold 60 seats by >5%
Labour hold 410 by >5%
I still think on the morning of 4th there will be a very late tory swing back. Once their pencils are hovering over an actual ballot paper...
7 Months ago it was 'The Tories always swingback in the 6 months before an election' then it was 'There'll be swing back to the government once the date is anounced.' Then it was 'There'll be swing back once the manifestos are published'.
Now it's 'There'll be swing back in the voting booths'.
The straws keep on getting thinner...
But then Big G swings back, and look what happens. No wonder there's shy Tories
BTW who on here is Leighton Vaughn Williams IRL?
That sounds like an awesome mashup. Pastoral wistfulness with a hint of folktunes meets agonised discordant postmodern. I'd listen to that.
Google him, he's a Professor of Betology just been wheeled out on radio 4. Hasn't a clue. TSE's people should talk to Leon's agent about how to get talking head gigs in the media.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
If people voting Conservative also want Starmer in number ten he's going to have a humungous mandate!
Biggest swing ever in 2024 followed by biggest loss ever in 2029.
It's just the mathematics.
It is. But that biggest loss ever could be a good majority. This is also the mathematics.
From Deltapoll twitter 🚨New Voting Intention🚨 Labour lead by 24 points in our latest poll. Con 19% (-) Lab 43% (-3) Lib Dem 13% (+3) Reform 15% (-1) SNP 2% (-) Green 5% (-) Other 2% (+1) Fieldwork: 21st to 24th June 2024 Sample: 1,568 GB adults (Changes from 14th - 17th June 2024)
Well, that's an interesting poll to a point. Much better for the LDs but if we're seeing a tactical vote shift much worse for the Conservatives.
Having a look at the More In Common data, it's fascinating to see the big Conservative leads among the two groups most likely to vote - the 65-74 group has the Conservatives ahead 38-25 and among those aged 75+ 43-25. Those two Conservative blocs combined are 48% of the total Conservative vote but these are the two age groups most likely to turn out (75-80% certain to vote) so what may hold up the Conservative vote are the old and the very old.
The combined Conservative VI among those aged 65+ on MiC is 40.3%, R&W has 25% for its 65+ sub sample.
Labour 42% (–) Reform UK 19% (–) Conservative 18% (–) Lib Dem 12% (+1) Green 6% (+1) SNP 3% (–) Other 2% (+1)
BAXTERED
LAB 501 LIB DEMS 60 CONS 38 REFUK 5 GRN 2
Absolutely disastrous for the conservatives given it includes faragegate. No impact whatsoever on polling.
Welcome GrandCanyon. Are you bit of a wide boy?
It’s impossible for taking Putin’s side in the Ukraine war, like MAGA do, not to hurt Reform by quite a lot actually. British voters are different culture than the MAGA crowd, European, different history, not instinctively isolationist as US history, and political and media establishment that condemns Putin for his crimes. Let’s look again next Monday to see if Ref have dropped quite a lot across all the polls. Like Tory’s 26, Ref no more than 12.
Look at your own post. You had to exaggerate NF's words, because on their own, they're not sufficient to make your case. Everything to do with Ukraine is completely heightened and exaggerated - every bit of the political and media class is totally invested in pushing the 'Putin evil' message, and there is no room for even a little descent. That opens up what I will call a 'common sense gap' for Farage that he can step into, where he can say something fairly mild - something that Boris once said, something not entirely unsupported by the facts of the case; the entire political and media will mobilise against him, and people who are sick of being told what to think will rally to his side.
But Farage is still wrong though. The point of the EU “is” to peel Slavonic states away from Russia allegiance to create a super bloc that abides by democracy, fair capitalism, better living standards, education and infrastructure for everyone.
And just because you dont like Micjel Barnier that's no reason not to support it.
We are ignoring the possibility - which I suggested a couple of days ago - that Farageputinukrainegate HAS had an effect but it’s just not showing - because it has killed the reform surge so their vote is now stuck around 15-19
Without his foolish words he might now be on 20+
Agreed. He is putting a cap on potential support. He would have been safer blaming it all on weakness from Obama and Cameron not standing up in 2014 when Crimea was annexed.
Credit to Nick Robinson for forcing the story.
Farage may still get that late surge as people forget the Ukraine stuff. Who knows. He only needs to take 2-3 more from the Tories and they are finished forever and he can take over
Take over what ?
Even he manages to become a more important loudmouth that's not equal to being in government.
I think he means a reverse take over of what is left of the Conservative brand. Remember as Farage and Tommy Ten Names enter from the right a shedload of one nation Tories leave stage left.
I think that sleepy, Conservative, Hereford North will be interesting come polling day. Greens have moved from 14s to 6/1 to 3/1 last time I looked. There appears to be a shift by Labour voters to Greens here which has nothing to do with SKS not being left wing enough, but everything to do with the chance to remove Bill Wiggin.
I havn't made many bad bets this election (those where odds have gone against me since betting) but I did a terrible one on the greens getting no seats a month ago
Is that a goner, State?
I'd have though anything from 0-5 would be possible. Personally I think more than two would be very surprising, but I'm not a Green expert.
just wouldnt make that bet now I suppose and the odds have drifted to 9/1 from the 6/1 I put it on at
Seen worse.
Let's not mention my Potus bets, or the lays on a July GE.
From Deltapoll twitter 🚨New Voting Intention🚨 Labour lead by 24 points in our latest poll. Con 19% (-) Lab 43% (-3) Lib Dem 13% (+3) Reform 15% (-1) SNP 2% (-) Green 5% (-) Other 2% (+1) Fieldwork: 21st to 24th June 2024 Sample: 1,568 GB adults (Changes from 14th - 17th June 2024)
Which makes him a twat for keeping it going with Bojo.
He should be talking about cost of living.
You said he'd fucked it. On this evidence you were wrong.
He has fucked it. Appealing to a limited audience supporting a murderer and thief is not going to carry the country. This is not the States. Frankly I would see it as our job to face off to cnts like Mad Vlad I'd be disappointed in a PM who wouldnt.
The evidence will be how he can convince voters they might like Marmite after all. He will have to reverse ferret pretty quickly.
To be analytical about it, Farage does seem to arrive in the same place as the MAGA crowd - Biden loves Ukraine, so we hate Ukraine - from a different Journey? Farage journey is EU hatred. He hates the concept of the EU superstate, so is tough on the expansion of the EU superstate. Farage is not selling Putin as good ol tough guy Conservative can’t do any harm, as MAGA leans toward, he is trying to say EU bad, EU expansion kicks someone’s apple cart over and disrupts the order of things.
But kicking apple carts over and disrupting the world order is why EU fans love the EU project isn’t it? That’s its selling point, not weakness?
All they have done is recreate the Austro Hungarian empire - with the Hungarians still being the people who like to mess things up.
Shrewd point. The EU is very much like the Austro-Hungarian empire. Apart from the geographic and temporal extent, the governance structure, the wider political context, the demographics, technology, provenance, economy, culture, and the rights of its peoples... it's basically identical.
From Deltapoll twitter 🚨New Voting Intention🚨 Labour lead by 24 points in our latest poll. Con 19% (-) Lab 43% (-3) Lib Dem 13% (+3) Reform 15% (-1) SNP 2% (-) Green 5% (-) Other 2% (+1) Fieldwork: 21st to 24th June 2024 Sample: 1,568 GB adults (Changes from 14th - 17th June 2024)
Well, that's an interesting poll to a point. Much better for the LDs but if we're seeing a tactical vote shift much worse for the Conservatives.
Having a look at the More In Common data, it's fascinating to see the big Conservative leads among the two groups most likely to vote - the 65-74 group has the Conservatives ahead 38-25 and among those aged 75+ 43-25. Those two Conservative blocs combined are 48% of the total Conservative vote but these are the two age groups most likely to turn out (75-80% certain to vote) so what may hold up the Conservative vote are the old and the very old.
The combined Conservative VI among those aged 65+ on MiC is 40.3%, R&W has 25% for its 65+ sub sample.
There's your difference.
Indeed. R and W's age curve is very different and has been far some time, they are much less bullish (along with Techne) on the Tory over 65 vote to most of the others as has been the case since a few months ago, but who is right?
Peter Hitchens: "Yes, it was a lawless putsch. My inch-by-inch and line-by-line examination of the illegal overthrow of Ukraine's legitimate President in 2014 (swiftly condoned, to their lasting shame, by the Western democracies)". [Plus link to an article he wrote on the subject in April 23
Peter Hitchens confirms once again he's as thick as pigshit, thanks for the reminder.
Climate change denier too. Moron status confirmed.
Another issue where the three main parties and their fellow travellers have the same view, view anyone who dissents as a cretin and then wonder why people like Meloni, Le Pen and Farage start getting lots of votes and decide it is because they are thick and bigoted, in much the same way a Georgian Aristocrat regarded the peasants.
Anthropogenic climate change is happening - that is a fact. The main issue is how to tackle the issue. The neoliberals want to allow big business to thrive whilst also paying lip service to the idea of being environmentally friendly, so they move taxes onto consumers rather than producers of CO2 - the petrol hikes that many rural Europeans so despise because it makes rural living more expensive is a good example of this. The right / far right want to pretend climate change isn't happening and move on to a scarcity model of politics - there isn't enough left for the Volk, so we must kick out the foreigner (and the dissenters who aren't really people like us anyway). The left propose the only viable alternative - investment in renewable energy and a reduced reliance on fossil fuels. This will mean huge phase shifts (reduced plastic use, reduced usage of hydrocarbon based fertilisers, etc), but at least the left are willing to say what the problem is (excess production and consumption for the benefit of capital) and where to get the resources to tackle the issue (those who already hoard capital) without having to scapegoat immigrants.
There is another option and that's to value sustainability and ecological impact beside profit as a business motive. It's no good making money if you're destroying the world. Supporting businesses which are ecologically sustainable and seek to mitigate the impact of climate change would be sensible options for a more business-oriented Government and if that means companies who refuse to be sustainable go to the wall so be it.
There is a fine line but Govenrment can also be about influencing public behaviour and educating people as to what is happening, why it is happening and the consequences especially for those parts of the world where the impacts are more keenly and immediately felt.
We too face issues from rising sea levels and a climate with more frequent extremes of weather and that means sensible thinking on houses including not building housing developments on flood plains.
The problem with capitalistic growth is that it is ideologically wedded not only to profit, but ever growing profit, which demand ever more extraction and squeezing of labour, along with increasingly trying to foist externalities onto public coffers (or ignoring them completely) makes it really difficult. Already we have right wingers and big businesses saying there is too much green tape and regulation etc. We also know that consumption and CO2 production is skewwed heavily towards the extremely wealthy - both globally and within individual nations. The answer, more equitable distribution of resources and an overall decrease in consumption reliant on fossil fuels, doesn't really square with the continuation of the profit motive as it currently exists.
You don't believe in net zero, do you?
If we have net zero, why do we need "equitable distribution of resources" for climate reasons, considering we can scale up or down consumption/production and anything times zero equals zero.
If we don't have net zero, how do we stop climate change?
If you were serious about tackling climate change, you wouldn't believe any of the garbage you're spouting.
I mean, I don't think globally we're going to get to net zero because many of the people saying we will are hoping carbon capture works better than it currently does - atm efficiency is too low to depend on it. So to get to net zero it will not just be countries sequestering any carbon output to equal zero (as the tech to sequester is currently not good enough), it will require a reduction in emissions. Reduction in emissions will require a reduction in production and consumption. If the logic of growth for the average worker is "you get a smaller slice, but we'll grow the pie", the logic of static growth or even degrowth for the average worker should be "you get a bigger slice, but we're slowly shrinking the pie". That will have to come via wealth redistribution - those who have a huge amount will have to give up their hoarded resources for the benefits of those who have less or none.
So you don't give a fuck about the planet and want to trash the environment and keep emitting pollution then.
Pissing about with marginal reductions in "the size of the pie" will do bugger all to reduce emissions, since we'll still have billions of people making emissions globally and the rest of the world has no desire to shrink their size of the pie - quite rightly too.
Only investing in clean technology gets us to net zero and that requires no change in pie size. And clean technologies can be adopted by the rest of the planet too.
It doesn't take much scraping the green away to reveal the nasty anti-growth agenda beneath. Carbon capture needn't even be about 'storage technology' - it can be done by dressing UK fields with basalt, to the tune of 45% of Britain's overall net zero target, and the level of carbon uptake can be verified easily by testing of soils. Terrifying for the likes of 148grss because it doesn't involve the forced decimation of the economy, which is their actual goal.
It also remineralises the soil and makes it far more fertile.
I used SEER rockdust on my allotment and it was very effective.
Funny thing is they smear me as a climate denier but I grow my own veg travel mostly by public transport and drive very little (had the car since new the thick end of two decades ago and will keep it till it packs up (the greenest way possible of driving due to the carbon cost of construction and disposal). Probably one of the greenest here in terms of what I actually do.
If they actually believed what they say then the COP and WEF summits would be held by videoconference.
What they really mean is that they want a subsistence existence stuck in 15 minute cities for most so that there is unspoiled Lebensraum for them and they can air condition their mansions and fly their private jets without the earth running out of resources any time soon. Oil isn't infinite. Lets not let the plebs waste it, what?
If you don’t want to sound like a stark raving conspiracy theorist, perhaps drop the bit about the WEF and… well, the conspiracy theory bit.
Thing is there is a bit of a point about scientists sounding alarm bells about global travel and then all meeting up after travelling thousands of miles, usually by air. Now you and I both know that international conferences are vastly better for information exchange, project seeding etc than teams/zoom meetings etc. But it is all too easy for the lay person to look at that and think that if it were really serious* then the scientists would lead by example.
*It is.
Its not just international conferences that are vastly better in person, so is almost everything else people fly for too.
Which is why cutting flights is not a credible suggestion and is not going to happen. If it won't happen for these conferences, it won't happen anywhere else either.
What is a credible suggestion is developing net zero clean technologies for flights. Which will take longer to implement than say net zero clean technologies for cars, but should still happen ultimately.
It's not either/or. We can cut some flights, and should, and we should also be developing and implementing clean technologies.
The problem is so great that doing one of the things won't be enough. We need to do all of the things!
I disagree. The problem is so great we need to be doing clean technologies.
Cutting a few flights does piss all. If 99% of flights still take off, then reducing the flights by 1% does bugger all.
OTOH ensuring the flights that take off emit 10% less in one step, and then emit nothing eventually, transitions us to clean flights without cutting anything.
The latter is a serious, credible, scientific way to address the problem.
It would be if it was possible to achieve it with the laws of physics as we understand it.
Just the initial 10% involves switching to burning oil crops (as with E5 and E10 petrol) so reducing arable land needed for food and putting food prices up with particular impact on the global south, most of whom don't get to fly anywhere - ever.
There are other ways. Colleagues here are working on growing bio oils in algae. No need to agricultural land.
Yet. Yet.
I'm all for things like bio oils in algae. If so much money hadn't been spaffed away to spivs pushing wind turbines when there is not yet the technology to store what they generate, we might be further down that road.
There absolutely is the technology to store what they generate, its just not completely rolled out yet.
Within a decade it will be though. It will be on my driveway.
From what I recall, nowhere near enough energy storage in cars for that. Or in all transportation.
We typically use about 35GW of electricity nationwide.
33 million cars on the road. Assume an average of 80 kWh battery in each.
Equals 2,640 GWh. Or just over 3 days worth of 100% of our electricity.
Unless I've screwed up my maths, in which case I'm sure somebody on pedanticbetting will spot it.
You have. The average daily mileage is about 20m, which is about a tenth of a full charge.
But yes, we’ll probably need a significant amount above our current generation capacity.
Which makes him a twat for keeping it going with Bojo.
He should be talking about cost of living.
You said he'd fucked it. On this evidence you were wrong.
He has fucked it. Appealing to a limited audience supporting a murderer and thief is not going to carry the country. This is not the States. Frankly I would see it as our job to face off to cnts like Mad Vlad I'd be disappointed in a PM who wouldnt.
The evidence will be how he can convince voters they might like Marmite after all. He will have to reverse ferret pretty quickly.
To be analytical about it, Farage does seem to arrive in the same place as the MAGA crowd - Biden loves Ukraine, so we hate Ukraine - from a different Journey? Farage journey is EU hatred. He hates the concept of the EU superstate, so is tough on the expansion of the EU superstate. Farage is not selling Putin as good ol tough guy Conservative can’t do any harm, as MAGA leans toward, he is trying to say EU bad, EU expansion kicks someone’s apple cart over and disrupts the order of things.
But kicking apple carts over and disrupting the world order is why EU fans love the EU project isn’t it? That’s its selling point, not weakness?
All they have done is recreate the Austro Hungarian empire - with the Hungarians still being the people who like to mess things up.
From within, and us being the ones who like to mess things up from without.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
If people voting Conservative also want Starmer in number ten he's going to have a humungous mandate!
Unfortunately for Starmer its a mandate for conflicting things, many of which are effectively impossible to achieve in any case.
You seem to be cheering on a Starmer Government failure. Firstly, they haven't won yet and let's hope assuming they do they succeed in part. We are currently going backwards, let us pray the decline can at least be arrested.
Not cheering on failure but being grimly realistic.
Whoever is in government will have difficult decisions and a electorate which IMO is growing ever more self-entitled.
And its Labour who will be in government.
Labour are going to win big.
Which will allow them to accept some losses when in government.
How many losses happen will depend on how well they do and what events they have to deal with.
Labour 42% (–) Reform UK 19% (–) Conservative 18% (–) Lib Dem 12% (+1) Green 6% (+1) SNP 3% (–) Other 2% (+1)
BAXTERED
LAB 501 LIB DEMS 60 CONS 38 REFUK 5 GRN 2
Absolutely disastrous for the conservatives given it includes faragegate. No impact whatsoever on polling.
Welcome GrandCanyon. Are you bit of a wide boy?
It’s impossible for taking Putin’s side in the Ukraine war, like MAGA do, not to hurt Reform by quite a lot actually. British voters are different culture than the MAGA crowd, European, different history, not instinctively isolationist as US history, and political and media establishment that condemns Putin for his crimes. Let’s look again next Monday to see if Ref have dropped quite a lot across all the polls. Like Tory’s 26, Ref no more than 12.
Look at your own post. You had to exaggerate NF's words, because on their own, they're not sufficient to make your case. Everything to do with Ukraine is completely heightened and exaggerated - every bit of the political and media class is totally invested in pushing the 'Putin evil' message, and there is no room for even a little descent. That opens up what I will call a 'common sense gap' for Farage that he can step into, where he can say something fairly mild - something that Boris once said, something not entirely unsupported by the facts of the case; the entire political and media will mobilise against him, and people who are sick of being told what to think will rally to his side.
But Farage is still wrong though. The point of the EU “is” to peel Slavonic states away from Russia allegiance to create a super bloc that abides by democracy, fair capitalism, better living standards, education and infrastructure for everyone.
How does that point make him wrong?
It’s so obvious why. Peeling them away from Russia to give them those things is so much better for the people living in those states.
We are ignoring the possibility - which I suggested a couple of days ago - that Farageputinukrainegate HAS had an effect but it’s just not showing - because it has killed the reform surge so their vote is now stuck around 15-19
Without his foolish words he might now be on 20+
Maybe. I think there was going to natural ebb anyway, but perhaps it killed off longer term crossover.
From Deltapoll twitter 🚨New Voting Intention🚨 Labour lead by 24 points in our latest poll. Con 19% (-) Lab 43% (-3) Lib Dem 13% (+3) Reform 15% (-1) SNP 2% (-) Green 5% (-) Other 2% (+1) Fieldwork: 21st to 24th June 2024 Sample: 1,568 GB adults (Changes from 14th - 17th June 2024)
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
If people voting Conservative also want Starmer in number ten he's going to have a humungous mandate!
Unfortunately for Starmer its a mandate for conflicting things, many of which are effectively impossible to achieve in any case.
He’s going to bring in some vile law forbidding Islamophobia which will be so widely and loosely drawn it will make it impossible to criticise a RELIGION
Thus reversing the Enlightenment once and for all, and bringing back blasphemy laws. You could argue we are there already but starmer will make it formal. An enormous tragedy for the west. We will be no freer than the Chinese
The Labour Government formally abolished the common law offences of blasphemy and blasphemous libel in England and Wales in…erm…2008. I may be misremembering but I don’t remember many people getting burned at the stake in the late naughties. I’m also, as an employment lawyer paid to keep my clients abreast of such things, unaware of any proposal that would make sacrilegious speech a criminal or civil issue post election more than it is now. Also Starmer will keep us in the ECHR which has a robust stance on free speech at Article 10. Nice try though.
Peter Hitchens: "Yes, it was a lawless putsch. My inch-by-inch and line-by-line examination of the illegal overthrow of Ukraine's legitimate President in 2014 (swiftly condoned, to their lasting shame, by the Western democracies)". [Plus link to an article he wrote on the subject in April 23
Peter Hitchens confirms once again he's as thick as pigshit, thanks for the reminder.
Climate change denier too. Moron status confirmed.
Another issue where the three main parties and their fellow travellers have the same view, view anyone who dissents as a cretin and then wonder why people like Meloni, Le Pen and Farage start getting lots of votes and decide it is because they are thick and bigoted, in much the same way a Georgian Aristocrat regarded the peasants.
Anthropogenic climate change is happening - that is a fact. The main issue is how to tackle the issue. The neoliberals want to allow big business to thrive whilst also paying lip service to the idea of being environmentally friendly, so they move taxes onto consumers rather than producers of CO2 - the petrol hikes that many rural Europeans so despise because it makes rural living more expensive is a good example of this. The right / far right want to pretend climate change isn't happening and move on to a scarcity model of politics - there isn't enough left for the Volk, so we must kick out the foreigner (and the dissenters who aren't really people like us anyway). The left propose the only viable alternative - investment in renewable energy and a reduced reliance on fossil fuels. This will mean huge phase shifts (reduced plastic use, reduced usage of hydrocarbon based fertilisers, etc), but at least the left are willing to say what the problem is (excess production and consumption for the benefit of capital) and where to get the resources to tackle the issue (those who already hoard capital) without having to scapegoat immigrants.
There is another option and that's to value sustainability and ecological impact beside profit as a business motive. It's no good making money if you're destroying the world. Supporting businesses which are ecologically sustainable and seek to mitigate the impact of climate change would be sensible options for a more business-oriented Government and if that means companies who refuse to be sustainable go to the wall so be it.
There is a fine line but Govenrment can also be about influencing public behaviour and educating people as to what is happening, why it is happening and the consequences especially for those parts of the world where the impacts are more keenly and immediately felt.
We too face issues from rising sea levels and a climate with more frequent extremes of weather and that means sensible thinking on houses including not building housing developments on flood plains.
The problem with capitalistic growth is that it is ideologically wedded not only to profit, but ever growing profit, which demand ever more extraction and squeezing of labour, along with increasingly trying to foist externalities onto public coffers (or ignoring them completely) makes it really difficult. Already we have right wingers and big businesses saying there is too much green tape and regulation etc. We also know that consumption and CO2 production is skewwed heavily towards the extremely wealthy - both globally and within individual nations. The answer, more equitable distribution of resources and an overall decrease in consumption reliant on fossil fuels, doesn't really square with the continuation of the profit motive as it currently exists.
You don't believe in net zero, do you?
If we have net zero, why do we need "equitable distribution of resources" for climate reasons, considering we can scale up or down consumption/production and anything times zero equals zero.
If we don't have net zero, how do we stop climate change?
If you were serious about tackling climate change, you wouldn't believe any of the garbage you're spouting.
I mean, I don't think globally we're going to get to net zero because many of the people saying we will are hoping carbon capture works better than it currently does - atm efficiency is too low to depend on it. So to get to net zero it will not just be countries sequestering any carbon output to equal zero (as the tech to sequester is currently not good enough), it will require a reduction in emissions. Reduction in emissions will require a reduction in production and consumption. If the logic of growth for the average worker is "you get a smaller slice, but we'll grow the pie", the logic of static growth or even degrowth for the average worker should be "you get a bigger slice, but we're slowly shrinking the pie". That will have to come via wealth redistribution - those who have a huge amount will have to give up their hoarded resources for the benefits of those who have less or none.
So you don't give a fuck about the planet and want to trash the environment and keep emitting pollution then.
Pissing about with marginal reductions in "the size of the pie" will do bugger all to reduce emissions, since we'll still have billions of people making emissions globally and the rest of the world has no desire to shrink their size of the pie - quite rightly too.
Only investing in clean technology gets us to net zero and that requires no change in pie size. And clean technologies can be adopted by the rest of the planet too.
It doesn't take much scraping the green away to reveal the nasty anti-growth agenda beneath. Carbon capture needn't even be about 'storage technology' - it can be done by dressing UK fields with basalt, to the tune of 45% of Britain's overall net zero target, and the level of carbon uptake can be verified easily by testing of soils. Terrifying for the likes of 148grss because it doesn't involve the forced decimation of the economy, which is their actual goal.
It also remineralises the soil and makes it far more fertile.
I used SEER rockdust on my allotment and it was very effective.
Funny thing is they smear me as a climate denier but I grow my own veg travel mostly by public transport and drive very little (had the car since new the thick end of two decades ago and will keep it till it packs up (the greenest way possible of driving due to the carbon cost of construction and disposal). Probably one of the greenest here in terms of what I actually do.
If they actually believed what they say then the COP and WEF summits would be held by videoconference.
What they really mean is that they want a subsistence existence stuck in 15 minute cities for most so that there is unspoiled Lebensraum for them and they can air condition their mansions and fly their private jets without the earth running out of resources any time soon. Oil isn't infinite. Lets not let the plebs waste it, what?
If you don’t want to sound like a stark raving conspiracy theorist, perhaps drop the bit about the WEF and… well, the conspiracy theory bit.
Thing is there is a bit of a point about scientists sounding alarm bells about global travel and then all meeting up after travelling thousands of miles, usually by air. Now you and I both know that international conferences are vastly better for information exchange, project seeding etc than teams/zoom meetings etc. But it is all too easy for the lay person to look at that and think that if it were really serious* then the scientists would lead by example.
*It is.
Its not just international conferences that are vastly better in person, so is almost everything else people fly for too.
Which is why cutting flights is not a credible suggestion and is not going to happen. If it won't happen for these conferences, it won't happen anywhere else either.
What is a credible suggestion is developing net zero clean technologies for flights. Which will take longer to implement than say net zero clean technologies for cars, but should still happen ultimately.
It's not either/or. We can cut some flights, and should, and we should also be developing and implementing clean technologies.
The problem is so great that doing one of the things won't be enough. We need to do all of the things!
I disagree. The problem is so great we need to be doing clean technologies.
Cutting a few flights does piss all. If 99% of flights still take off, then reducing the flights by 1% does bugger all.
OTOH ensuring the flights that take off emit 10% less in one step, and then emit nothing eventually, transitions us to clean flights without cutting anything.
The latter is a serious, credible, scientific way to address the problem.
It would be if it was possible to achieve it with the laws of physics as we understand it.
Just the initial 10% involves switching to burning oil crops (as with E5 and E10 petrol) so reducing arable land needed for food and putting food prices up with particular impact on the global south, most of whom don't get to fly anywhere - ever.
There are other ways. Colleagues here are working on growing bio oils in algae. No need to agricultural land.
Yet. Yet.
I'm all for things like bio oils in algae. If so much money hadn't been spaffed away to spivs pushing wind turbines when there is not yet the technology to store what they generate, we might be further down that road.
There absolutely is the technology to store what they generate, its just not completely rolled out yet.
Within a decade it will be though. It will be on my driveway.
From what I recall, nowhere near enough energy storage in cars for that. Or in all transportation.
We typically use about 35GW of electricity nationwide.
33 million cars on the road. Assume an average of 80 kWh battery in each.
Equals 2,640 GWh. Or just over 3 days worth of 100% of our electricity.
Unless I've screwed up my maths, in which case I'm sure somebody on pedanticbetting will spot it.
You have. The average daily mileage is about 20m, which is about a tenth of a full charge.
But yes, we’ll probably need a significant amount above our current generation capacity.
(edit, I see I got the wrong end of this stick.)
If Labour is serious about tidal (as per their Manifesto), then we can get the nation's fleet of EVs recharged overnight from the tides by 2035.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
If people voting Conservative also want Starmer in number ten he's going to have a humungous mandate!
Unfortunately for Starmer its a mandate for conflicting things, many of which are effectively impossible to achieve in any case.
You seem to be cheering on a Starmer Government failure. Firstly, they haven't won yet and let's hope assuming they do they succeed in part. We are currently going backwards, let us pray the decline can at least be arrested.
Not cheering on failure but being grimly realistic.
Whoever is in government will have difficult decisions and a electorate which IMO is growing ever more self-entitled.
And its Labour who will be in government.
Labour are going to win big.
Which will allow them to accept some losses when in government.
How many losses happen will depend on how well they do and what events they have to deal with.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
If people voting Conservative also want Starmer in number ten he's going to have a humungous mandate!
Unfortunately for Starmer its a mandate for conflicting things, many of which are effectively impossible to achieve in any case.
He’s going to bring in some vile law forbidding Islamophobia which will be so widely and loosely drawn it will make it impossible to criticise a RELIGION
Thus reversing the Enlightenment once and for all, and bringing back blasphemy laws. You could argue we are there already but starmer will make it formal. An enormous tragedy for the west. We will be no freer than the Chinese
Is this something you've made up in your head, or is this something in their manifesto?
Labour 42% (–) Reform UK 19% (–) Conservative 18% (–) Lib Dem 12% (+1) Green 6% (+1) SNP 3% (–) Other 2% (+1)
BAXTERED
LAB 501 LIB DEMS 60 CONS 38 REFUK 5 GRN 2
Absolutely disastrous for the conservatives given it includes faragegate. No impact whatsoever on polling.
Welcome GrandCanyon. Are you bit of a wide boy?
It’s impossible for taking Putin’s side in the Ukraine war, like MAGA do, not to hurt Reform by quite a lot actually. British voters are different culture than the MAGA crowd, European, different history, not instinctively isolationist as US history, and political and media establishment that condemns Putin for his crimes. Let’s look again next Monday to see if Ref have dropped quite a lot across all the polls. Like Tory’s 26, Ref no more than 12.
Look at your own post. You had to exaggerate NF's words, because on their own, they're not sufficient to make your case. Everything to do with Ukraine is completely heightened and exaggerated - every bit of the political and media class is totally invested in pushing the 'Putin evil' message, and there is no room for even a little descent. That opens up what I will call a 'common sense gap' for Farage that he can step into, where he can say something fairly mild - something that Boris once said, something not entirely unsupported by the facts of the case; the entire political and media will mobilise against him, and people who are sick of being told what to think will rally to his side.
But Farage is still wrong though. The point of the EU “is” to peel Slavonic states away from Russia allegiance to create a super bloc that abides by democracy, fair capitalism, better living standards, education and infrastructure for everyone.
How does that point make him wrong?
It’s so obvious why. Peeling them away from Russia to give them those things is so much better for the people living in those states.
Yes, so how does that make what he said (that they gave him the excuse to invade Ukraine) wrong?
Which makes him a twat for keeping it going with Bojo.
He should be talking about cost of living.
You said he'd fucked it. On this evidence you were wrong.
He has fucked it. Appealing to a limited audience supporting a murderer and thief is not going to carry the country. This is not the States. Frankly I would see it as our job to face off to cnts like Mad Vlad I'd be disappointed in a PM who wouldnt.
The evidence will be how he can convince voters they might like Marmite after all. He will have to reverse ferret pretty quickly.
To be analytical about it, Farage does seem to arrive in the same place as the MAGA crowd - Biden loves Ukraine, so we hate Ukraine - from a different Journey? Farage journey is EU hatred. He hates the concept of the EU superstate, so is tough on the expansion of the EU superstate. Farage is not selling Putin as good ol tough guy Conservative can’t do any harm, as MAGA leans toward, he is trying to say EU bad, EU expansion kicks someone’s apple cart over and disrupts the order of things.
But kicking apple carts over and disrupting the world order is why EU fans love the EU project isn’t it? That’s its selling point, not weakness?
All they have done is recreate the Austro Hungarian empire - with the Hungarians still being the people who like to mess things up.
Shrewd point. The EU is very much like the Austro-Hungarian empire. Apart from the geographic and temporal extent, the governance structure, the wider political context, the demographics, technology, provenance, economy, culture, and the rights of its peoples... it's basically identical.
The austro-Hungarian empire is by far the best political analogy for the EU. It was essentially an attempt to entrench a specific elite in place, overseeing multiple European countries, with a fake democratic veneer, and their big excuse was “keeping the peace”
And - they had a point. Given what came after the empire broke up it might have been better if it had endured
As European multinational empires go it was relatively benign. Certainly better than the Russian or German versions and probably better than napoleons
ANME update: I posted the wife's ballot paper (no dog poo bins were harmed in the casting of this ballot). Mine remains resolutely unfilled in. I'm waiting for the maximum amount of evidence on who's likeliest to beat the Tories here but it's still looking likely to be the nationalists for me. Still no posters visible anywhere, and no new letters after the flurry that arrived about a week ago. The talk in the pub and the shops has been all football and how nice the weather is, but that might change now Scotland have limped out.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
If people voting Conservative also want Starmer in number ten he's going to have a humungous mandate!
Unfortunately for Starmer its a mandate for conflicting things, many of which are effectively impossible to achieve in any case.
He’s going to bring in some vile law forbidding Islamophobia which will be so widely and loosely drawn it will make it impossible to criticise a RELIGION
Thus reversing the Enlightenment once and for all, and bringing back blasphemy laws. You could argue we are there already but starmer will make it formal. An enormous tragedy for the west. We will be no freer than the Chinese
The Labour Government formally abolished the common law offences of blasphemy and blasphemous libel in England and Wales in…erm…2008. I may be misremembering but I don’t remember many people getting burned at the stake in the late naughties. I’m also, as an employment lawyer paid to keep my clients abreast of such things, unaware of any proposal that would make sacrilegious speech a criminal or civil issue post election more than it is now. Also Starmer will keep us in the ECHR which has a robust stance on free speech at Article 10. Nice try though.
See his recent interview with Sadiq khan. Its coming
We already have a de facto blasphemy law. Go ask that teacher in batley. Oh wait. You can’t. He’s still in hiding. The ECHR not much help there, eh?
We are ignoring the possibility - which I suggested a couple of days ago - that Farageputinukrainegate HAS had an effect but it’s just not showing - because it has killed the reform surge so their vote is now stuck around 15-19
Without his foolish words he might now be on 20+
Agreed. He is putting a cap on potential support. He would have been safer blaming it all on weakness from Obama and Cameron not standing up in 2014 when Crimea was annexed.
Credit to Nick Robinson for forcing the story.
Farage may still get that late surge as people forget the Ukraine stuff. Who knows. He only needs to take 2-3 more from the Tories and they are finished forever and he can take over
Take over what ?
Even he manages to become a more important loudmouth that's not equal to being in government.
I think he means a reverse take over of what is left of the Conservative brand. Remember as Farage and Tommy Ten Names enter from the right a shedload of one nation Tories leave stage left.
What happens if the Conservatives don't let him in ?
There's no shortage of wannabe big shots among Conservative politicians who would not want to take orders from Farage and his rabble.
From Deltapoll twitter 🚨New Voting Intention🚨 Labour lead by 24 points in our latest poll. Con 19% (-) Lab 43% (-3) Lib Dem 13% (+3) Reform 15% (-1) SNP 2% (-) Green 5% (-) Other 2% (+1) Fieldwork: 21st to 24th June 2024 Sample: 1,568 GB adults (Changes from 14th - 17th June 2024)
Good old Dutch Salute in that poll. 🫡
This poll must be worse for the Tories that a 27% labour lead?
ANME update: I posted the wife's ballot paper (no dog poo bins were harmed in the casting of this ballot). Mine remains resolutely unfilled in. I'm waiting for the maximum amount of evidence on who's likeliest to beat the Tories here but it's still looking likely to be the nationalists for me. Still no posters visible anywhere, and no new letters after the flurry that arrived about a week ago. The talk in the pub and the shops has been all football and how nice the weather is, but that might change now Scotland have limped out.
Reject the division of the Nationalists and vote for the Lib Dems.
From Deltapoll twitter 🚨New Voting Intention🚨 Labour lead by 24 points in our latest poll. Con 19% (-) Lab 43% (-3) Lib Dem 13% (+3) Reform 15% (-1) SNP 2% (-) Green 5% (-) Other 2% (+1) Fieldwork: 21st to 24th June 2024 Sample: 1,568 GB adults (Changes from 14th - 17th June 2024)
Well, that's an interesting poll to a point. Much better for the LDs but if we're seeing a tactical vote shift much worse for the Conservatives.
Having a look at the More In Common data, it's fascinating to see the big Conservative leads among the two groups most likely to vote - the 65-74 group has the Conservatives ahead 38-25 and among those aged 75+ 43-25. Those two Conservative blocs combined are 48% of the total Conservative vote but these are the two age groups most likely to turn out (75-80% certain to vote) so what may hold up the Conservative vote are the old and the very old.
The combined Conservative VI among those aged 65+ on MiC is 40.3%, R&W has 25% for its 65+ sub sample.
There's your difference.
Been telling you - door-knocking shows the oldies and crumblies are still backing Team Tories.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
If people voting Conservative also want Starmer in number ten he's going to have a humungous mandate!
Unfortunately for Starmer its a mandate for conflicting things, many of which are effectively impossible to achieve in any case.
He’s going to bring in some vile law forbidding Islamophobia which will be so widely and loosely drawn it will make it impossible to criticise a RELIGION
Thus reversing the Enlightenment once and for all, and bringing back blasphemy laws. You could argue we are there already but starmer will make it formal. An enormous tragedy for the west. We will be no freer than the Chinese
Is this something you've made up in your head, or is this something in their manifesto?
Criticising any religion is free speech.
I mean New Labour introduced a religious hatred law
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
If people voting Conservative also want Starmer in number ten he's going to have a humungous mandate!
Unfortunately for Starmer its a mandate for conflicting things, many of which are effectively impossible to achieve in any case.
You seem to be cheering on a Starmer Government failure. Firstly, they haven't won yet and let's hope assuming they do they succeed in part. We are currently going backwards, let us pray the decline can at least be arrested.
Not cheering on failure but being grimly realistic.
Whoever is in government will have difficult decisions and a electorate which IMO is growing ever more self-entitled.
And its Labour who will be in government.
Labour are going to win big.
Which will allow them to accept some losses when in government.
How many losses happen will depend on how well they do and what events they have to deal with.
Well we'll have to see what happens.
But in crude terms a lot of people hate the Tories and just think that new Labour is going to be much nicer to them - which basically means give them some more money.
When that money doesn't materialise they are not going to be happy.
The point is that on here we debate all kinds of political issues that the average person isn't aware of - or should I say doesn't want to be aware of. In contrast the average person is just thinking in terms of "what will I get".
I think that sleepy, Conservative, Hereford North will be interesting come polling day. Greens have moved from 14s to 6/1 to 3/1 last time I looked. There appears to be a shift by Labour voters to Greens here which has nothing to do with SKS not being left wing enough, but everything to do with the chance to remove Bill Wiggin.
I havn't made many bad bets this election (those where odds have gone against me since betting) but I did a terrible one on the greens getting no seats a month ago
Is that a goner, State?
I'd have though anything from 0-5 would be possible. Personally I think more than two would be very surprising, but I'm not a Green expert.
just wouldnt make that bet now I suppose and the odds have drifted to 9/1 from the 6/1 I put it on at
Seen worse.
Let's not mention my Potus bets, or the lays on a July GE.
I put my life savings on January 2025. Bound to be an opportunity to trade out.
Except my pension which I staked on a draw Scotland Hungary last night.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
It is 12 days to the 5th July
It is nine and a bit days until polling day.
24,25,26,27,28,29,30,01,02,03,04 and result day 05 = 12 days
I am getting flashbacks to arguments with my daughter about how to count steps.
In 1 day it is the 25th, tomorrow not today, so it is 11 days until Friday evening, the day after the election.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
If people voting Conservative also want Starmer in number ten he's going to have a humungous mandate!
Unfortunately for Starmer its a mandate for conflicting things, many of which are effectively impossible to achieve in any case.
You seem to be cheering on a Starmer Government failure. Firstly, they haven't won yet and let's hope assuming they do they succeed in part. We are currently going backwards, let us pray the decline can at least be arrested.
Not cheering on failure but being grimly realistic.
Whoever is in government will have difficult decisions and a electorate which IMO is growing ever more self-entitled.
And its Labour who will be in government.
Labour are going to win big.
Which will allow them to accept some losses when in government.
How many losses happen will depend on how well they do and what events they have to deal with.
Unlike you to be grim, Richard.
Expect grim and you're likely to be surprised on the upside.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
If people voting Conservative also want Starmer in number ten he's going to have a humungous mandate!
Unfortunately for Starmer its a mandate for conflicting things, many of which are effectively impossible to achieve in any case.
He’s going to bring in some vile law forbidding Islamophobia which will be so widely and loosely drawn it will make it impossible to criticise a RELIGION
Thus reversing the Enlightenment once and for all, and bringing back blasphemy laws. You could argue we are there already but starmer will make it formal. An enormous tragedy for the west. We will be no freer than the Chinese
Is this something you've made up in your head, or is this something in their manifesto?
Criticising any religion is free speech.
I mean New Labour introduced a religious hatred law
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
It is 12 days to the 5th July
It is nine and a bit days until polling day.
24,25,26,27,28,29,30,01,02,03,04 and result day 05 = 12 days
I am getting flashbacks to arguments with my daughter about how to count steps.
In 1 day it is the 25th, tomorrow not today, so it is 11 days until Friday evening, the day after the election.
Do you count today or not is always a matter of some debate.
For me the debate is wrapped up by thinking its nearly 7pm and I've got a beer open, so no, today is done.
Had you said this at 8am this morning, I'd have looked at needing to work today and said yes today has to be counted.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
If people voting Conservative also want Starmer in number ten he's going to have a humungous mandate!
Unfortunately for Starmer its a mandate for conflicting things, many of which are effectively impossible to achieve in any case.
You seem to be cheering on a Starmer Government failure. Firstly, they haven't won yet and let's hope assuming they do they succeed in part. We are currently going backwards, let us pray the decline can at least be arrested.
Not cheering on failure but being grimly realistic.
Whoever is in government will have difficult decisions and a electorate which IMO is growing ever more self-entitled.
And its Labour who will be in government.
Labour are going to win big.
Which will allow them to accept some losses when in government.
How many losses happen will depend on how well they do and what events they have to deal with.
Well we'll have to see what happens.
But in crude terms a lot of people hate the Tories and just think that new Labour is going to be much nicer to them - which basically means give them some more money.
When that money doesn't materialise they are not going to be happy.
The point is that on here we debate all kinds of political issues that the average person isn't aware of - or should I say doesn't want to be aware of. In contrast the average person is just thinking in terms of "what will I get".
IFS damning today. Labour going to have to hike taxes and cut services and fudge borrowing.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
If people voting Conservative also want Starmer in number ten he's going to have a humungous mandate!
Unfortunately for Starmer its a mandate for conflicting things, many of which are effectively impossible to achieve in any case.
He’s going to bring in some vile law forbidding Islamophobia which will be so widely and loosely drawn it will make it impossible to criticise a RELIGION
Thus reversing the Enlightenment once and for all, and bringing back blasphemy laws. You could argue we are there already but starmer will make it formal. An enormous tragedy for the west. We will be no freer than the Chinese
Is this something you've made up in your head, or is this something in their manifesto?
Criticising any religion is free speech.
I mean New Labour introduced a religious hatred law
Which does not cover criticising any religion, which is still legally protected free speech.
I can say I dislike Islam, or the Catholic Church, or Christianity in general, or Judaism, or any other belief and it is free speech and not a crime.
But what is considered stirring up religious hatred? That seems quite broad and open to interpretation, also I remember at the time there was quite a backlash when it was being passed in parliament and they watered it down somewhat.
With a gargantuan majority I don't think Leon's speculation is without merit, when Labour have such form.
ANME update: I posted the wife's ballot paper (no dog poo bins were harmed in the casting of this ballot). Mine remains resolutely unfilled in. I'm waiting for the maximum amount of evidence on who's likeliest to beat the Tories here but it's still looking likely to be the nationalists for me. Still no posters visible anywhere, and no new letters after the flurry that arrived about a week ago. The talk in the pub and the shops has been all football and how nice the weather is, but that might change now Scotland have limped out.
Reject the division of the Nationalists and vote for the Lib Dems.
If the Lib Dems are likeliest to win here, I will. Same with Labour.
I've made it clear for years now that my vote is going to be whatever I feel is best to shift the Tories out. I voted Lib Dem last time and I have no regrets even though they had no hope in that election in my seat. "Bollocks to Brexit" was the right message for me.
But this time it's a punishment vote. Tories out. Show me evidence that puts one party ahead of the others, and I'll listen.
From Deltapoll twitter 🚨New Voting Intention🚨 Labour lead by 24 points in our latest poll. Con 19% (-) Lab 43% (-3) Lib Dem 13% (+3) Reform 15% (-1) SNP 2% (-) Green 5% (-) Other 2% (+1) Fieldwork: 21st to 24th June 2024 Sample: 1,568 GB adults (Changes from 14th - 17th June 2024)
Well, that's an interesting poll to a point. Much better for the LDs but if we're seeing a tactical vote shift much worse for the Conservatives.
Having a look at the More In Common data, it's fascinating to see the big Conservative leads among the two groups most likely to vote - the 65-74 group has the Conservatives ahead 38-25 and among those aged 75+ 43-25. Those two Conservative blocs combined are 48% of the total Conservative vote but these are the two age groups most likely to turn out (75-80% certain to vote) so what may hold up the Conservative vote are the old and the very old.
The combined Conservative VI among those aged 65+ on MiC is 40.3%, R&W has 25% for its 65+ sub sample.
There's your difference.
Been telling you - door-knocking shows the oldies and crumblies are still backing Team Tories.
Not to the extent they did in 2019 and we only have your anecdotal evidence of what is going on in your part of the world.
In 2019, the over 65s went 64% Conservative, 17% Labour - if it's now 40.5% Conservative, 25% Labour that's a 16% swing which isn't too shabby. Among younger age groups the swing will be much larger.
We also have plenty of evidence older voters back Reform so some of your erstwhile Tories (whatever they may tell you on the doorstep) might support Farage.
From Deltapoll twitter 🚨New Voting Intention🚨 Labour lead by 24 points in our latest poll. Con 19% (-) Lab 43% (-3) Lib Dem 13% (+3) Reform 15% (-1) SNP 2% (-) Green 5% (-) Other 2% (+1) Fieldwork: 21st to 24th June 2024 Sample: 1,568 GB adults (Changes from 14th - 17th June 2024)
Good old Dutch Salute in that poll. 🫡
This poll must be worse for the Tories that a 27% labour lead?
Yes. Because a lot of what PB has been doing is taking poll numbers and putting them into uniform swing models, that are unrealistic as no election in any region or seat is uniform. The biggest variable in this election is the size and precision of tactical voting.
It’s Brexit. Brexit is really hurting the Tories, at least in this particular stretch of unknown length in British political history.
Had a trawl of Focaldata for Norfolk and its fairly reasonable. 2 x Norwich safely Labour, Tories hold NW Norfolk, SW Norfolk and Broadland and Fakenham and win the new Waveney Valley seat, Labour take Mid Norfolk and Great Yarmouth both highly marginal and LDs squeak N Norfolk again on a tight margin, Labour get a 10% majority and gain in South Norfolk 5 Lab, 4 Con, 1 LD Quite likely
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
If people voting Conservative also want Starmer in number ten he's going to have a humungous mandate!
Biggest swing ever in 2024 followed by biggest loss ever in 2029.
It's just the mathematics.
It is. But that biggest loss ever could be a good majority. This is also the mathematics.
It could be I dont exclude that.
We all get to see just how good Starmer is,
LOL
I'm trying to think of some impartial metrics to use to judge how well he does. Any suggestions would be appreciated.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
Twelve days? You are Laura K and I claim by fiver.
It is 12 days to the 5th July
It is nine and a bit days until polling day.
24,25,26,27,28,29,30,01,02,03,04 and result day 05 = 12 days
I am getting flashbacks to arguments with my daughter about how to count steps.
In 1 day it is the 25th, tomorrow not today, so it is 11 days until Friday evening, the day after the election.
"England are playing in two days' time" = "you will miss the match"
Labour 42% (–) Reform UK 19% (–) Conservative 18% (–) Lib Dem 12% (+1) Green 6% (+1) SNP 3% (–) Other 2% (+1)
BAXTERED
LAB 501 LIB DEMS 60 CONS 38 REFUK 5 GRN 2
Absolutely disastrous for the conservatives given it includes faragegate. No impact whatsoever on polling.
Welcome GrandCanyon. Are you bit of a wide boy?
It’s impossible for taking Putin’s side in the Ukraine war, like MAGA do, not to hurt Reform by quite a lot actually. British voters are different culture than the MAGA crowd, European, different history, not instinctively isolationist as US history, and political and media establishment that condemns Putin for his crimes. Let’s look again next Monday to see if Ref have dropped quite a lot across all the polls. Like Tory’s 26, Ref no more than 12.
Look at your own post. You had to exaggerate NF's words, because on their own, they're not sufficient to make your case. Everything to do with Ukraine is completely heightened and exaggerated - every bit of the political and media class is totally invested in pushing the 'Putin evil' message, and there is no room for even a little descent. That opens up what I will call a 'common sense gap' for Farage that he can step into, where he can say something fairly mild - something that Boris once said, something not entirely unsupported by the facts of the case; the entire political and media will mobilise against him, and people who are sick of being told what to think will rally to his side.
But Farage is still wrong though. The point of the EU “is” to peel Slavonic states away from Russia allegiance to create a super bloc that abides by democracy, fair capitalism, better living standards, education and infrastructure for everyone.
How does that point make him wrong?
Because he’s an EU-phobe totally invested in pushing the EU is evil message. To borrow your hyperbolic language.
From Deltapoll twitter 🚨New Voting Intention🚨 Labour lead by 24 points in our latest poll. Con 19% (-) Lab 43% (-3) Lib Dem 13% (+3) Reform 15% (-1) SNP 2% (-) Green 5% (-) Other 2% (+1) Fieldwork: 21st to 24th June 2024 Sample: 1,568 GB adults (Changes from 14th - 17th June 2024)
Well, that's an interesting poll to a point. Much better for the LDs but if we're seeing a tactical vote shift much worse for the Conservatives.
Having a look at the More In Common data, it's fascinating to see the big Conservative leads among the two groups most likely to vote - the 65-74 group has the Conservatives ahead 38-25 and among those aged 75+ 43-25. Those two Conservative blocs combined are 48% of the total Conservative vote but these are the two age groups most likely to turn out (75-80% certain to vote) so what may hold up the Conservative vote are the old and the very old.
The combined Conservative VI among those aged 65+ on MiC is 40.3%, R&W has 25% for its 65+ sub sample.
There's your difference.
Been telling you - door-knocking shows the oldies and crumblies are still backing Team Tories.
The difference is that in 2019 you had the votes of the oldies and crumblies, but also had the votes of working 39 year olds onwards etc
This time you don't. Oldies alone is quite a demographic, but insufficient when everyone who works for a living is against you.
The Tories used to be the party of those who work for a living. That you're not anymore is a major problem and why you deserve what is coming to you.
🆕 @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Small changes but our highest Reform score yet. While Labour tick back up & lead by 16 🔴 LAB 41% (+2) 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟣 REF UK 15% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(-1) Dates: 21-23/6 N: 2046 Tables: moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/votin… https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1805274012135702821?s=19
Reform up but Tories will be relieved their lead over Reform for 2nd is 10% ie double the 5% lead Reform have over the LDs for 3rd
Why should the Tories be relieved ? They will lose and then have to rebuild a party.
Actually that is inevitable and I may be mistaken but I cannot see much change in the polling over the next 12 days
I suppose it will all come down to the 'hovering pen' over the ballot paper
For me I just want Starmer in no 10 and for the country to move on
If people voting Conservative also want Starmer in number ten he's going to have a humungous mandate!
Unfortunately for Starmer its a mandate for conflicting things, many of which are effectively impossible to achieve in any case.
He’s going to bring in some vile law forbidding Islamophobia which will be so widely and loosely drawn it will make it impossible to criticise a RELIGION
Thus reversing the Enlightenment once and for all, and bringing back blasphemy laws. You could argue we are there already but starmer will make it formal. An enormous tragedy for the west. We will be no freer than the Chinese
Is this something you've made up in your head, or is this something in their manifesto?
Criticising any religion is free speech.
I mean New Labour introduced a religious hatred law
Which does not cover criticising any religion, which is still legally protected free speech.
I can say I dislike Islam, or the Catholic Church, or Christianity in general, or Judaism, or any other belief and it is free speech and not a crime.
But what is considered stirring up religious hatred? That seems quite broad and open to interpretation, also I remember at the time there was quite a backlash when it was being passed in parliament and they watered it down somewhat.
With a gargantuan majority I don't think Leon's speculation is without merit, when Labour have such form.
Have you thought about this?
With a gargantuan majority, Labour could pass a law requiring all men to become women, and vice versa. They could pass a law forbidding people to eat apples. They're mad enough to do it. We know what Labour is like. So I would like to say that I think Leon is absolutely spot on this time.
Harry Cole going very easy on SKS. The Sun will back Labour IMHO.
Were you watching it?
The consensus from others seems to be that both leaders did okay - succeeded in getting their key points across, didn't make any obvious errors. Is that your impression too?
Comments
Without his foolish words he might now be on 20+
BTW who on here is Leighton Vaughn Williams IRL?
But kicking apple carts over and disrupting the world order is why EU fans love the EU project isn’t it? That’s its selling point, not weakness?
Greens have moved from 14s to 6/1 to 3/1 last time I looked.
There appears to be a shift by Labour voters to Greens here which has nothing to do with SKS not being left wing enough, but
everything to do with the chance to remove Bill Wiggin.
The changes with the last Redfield & Wilton 10,000 sample poll last Monday are Labour -1 and Reform +1 so virtually no move from a large sample poll in a week.
The gender split is interesting - among men, Labour leads Reform 36-20 with Conservatives on 18, LDs on 10% and 7% DKs. Among women, Labour leads Conservatives 40-14 with Reform on 13%, DKs on 13% and LDs on 11%.
On turnout, R&W have 57% Certain and 20% Probable so a turnout in the mid to high 60s seems possible.
Among those likely to vote, Labour has 37.9%, Reform 16.7%, Conservative 15.9%, LDs 10.5% (10.46% so rounded down) and Don't Knows at 9.9%.
Stripping out the DKs puts Labour at 42%, Reform on 18.6%, Conservatives on 17.6%, Liberal Democrats on 11.6%.
It's imprecise but in the last Mega Poll the Conservatives led Reform by five (1306-1301). Now, Reform leads by 1327 to 1260 so a small move to Reform in the last week. Labour has lost ground among men (down from 39 to 36) but up a fraction with women from 39 to 40.
The DKs are up slightly as well - may just be the sample.
Credit to Nick Robinson for forcing the story.
🚨New Voting Intention🚨
Labour lead by 24 points in our latest poll.
Con 19% (-)
Lab 43% (-3)
Lib Dem 13% (+3)
Reform 15% (-1)
SNP 2% (-)
Green 5% (-)
Other 2% (+1)
Fieldwork: 21st to 24th June 2024
Sample: 1,568 GB adults
(Changes from 14th - 17th June 2024)
Last nite I was in a car with a couple of Reform voters who were 100% behind Nige.
Some of you peeps need to get out more.
Thus reversing the Enlightenment once and for all, and bringing back blasphemy laws. You could argue we are there already but starmer will make it formal. An enormous tragedy for the west. We will be no freer than the Chinese
I'd have though anything from 0-5 would be possible. Personally I think more than two would be very surprising, but I'm not a Green expert.
We all get to see just how good Starmer is,
LOL
Even he manages to become a more important loudmouth that's not equal to being in government.
Reform have only 609 candidates to the Tories 631.
So I'm predicting LD for you, OKC.
However I am partial to an aperol spritz. They are a great invention - refreshing on a warm evening and with enough alcohol to satisfy the proper drinker - and not too sweet or sour
I remember when I first saw them. In bolzano in the Dolomites about 20-25 years ago. They actually called them “a Veneziano”.
Hah! And I’m right. Just checked. Born in Germanic Italy
https://www.mobilita.se/shop/cocktail-spritz-veneziano-1
Vaughan not Vaughn.
Having a look at the More In Common data, it's fascinating to see the big Conservative leads among the two groups most likely to vote - the 65-74 group has the Conservatives ahead 38-25 and among those aged 75+ 43-25. Those two Conservative blocs combined are 48% of the total Conservative vote but these are the two age groups most likely to turn out (75-80% certain to vote) so what may hold up the Conservative vote are the old and the very old.
The combined Conservative VI among those aged 65+ on MiC is 40.3%, R&W has 25% for its 65+ sub sample.
There's your difference.
Let's not mention my Potus bets, or the lays on a July GE.
The average daily mileage is about 20m, which is about a tenth of a full charge.
But yes, we’ll probably need a significant amount above our current generation capacity.
(edit, I see I got the wrong end of this stick.)
So that’s why they’re all voting for le pen
Whoever is in government will have difficult decisions and a electorate which IMO is growing ever more self-entitled.
And its Labour who will be in government.
Labour are going to win big.
Which will allow them to accept some losses when in government.
How many losses happen will depend on how well they do and what events they have to deal with.
Criticising any religion is free speech.
And - they had a point. Given what came after the empire broke up it might have been better if it had endured
As European multinational empires go it was relatively benign. Certainly better than the Russian or German versions and probably better than napoleons
Mine remains resolutely unfilled in. I'm waiting for the maximum amount of evidence on who's likeliest to beat the Tories here but it's still looking likely to be the nationalists for me.
Still no posters visible anywhere, and no new letters after the flurry that arrived about a week ago. The talk in the pub and the shops has been all football and how nice the weather is, but that might change now Scotland have limped out.
Then think "how are the other 2/3rds voting?"
We already have a de facto blasphemy law. Go ask that teacher in batley. Oh wait. You can’t. He’s still in hiding. The ECHR not much help there, eh?
There's no shortage of wannabe big shots among Conservative politicians who would not want to take orders from Farage and his rabble.
"only 3% separating Priti Patel (Witham) from her Labour challenger."
That will be wiping the smirk off her face.
Downhill from there.
https://www.npr.org/2005/06/26/4719118/religious-hatred-law-in-britain-faces-backlash
But in crude terms a lot of people hate the Tories and just think that new Labour is going to be much nicer to them - which basically means give them some more money.
When that money doesn't materialise they are not going to be happy.
The point is that on here we debate all kinds of political issues that the average person isn't aware of - or should I say doesn't want to be aware of. In contrast the average person is just thinking in terms of "what will I get".
Except my pension which I staked on a draw Scotland Hungary last night.
https://www.cps.gov.uk/legal-guidance/racist-and-religious-hate-crime-prosecution-guidance#:~:text=The offence is committed if,to stir up religious hatred.
In 1 day it is the 25th, tomorrow not today, so it is 11 days until Friday evening, the day after the election.
Unless it involves politicians.
I can say I dislike Islam, or the Catholic Church, or Christianity in general, or Judaism, or any other belief and it is free speech and not a crime.
For me the debate is wrapped up by thinking its nearly 7pm and I've got a beer open, so no, today is done.
Had you said this at 8am this morning, I'd have looked at needing to work today and said yes today has to be counted.
The new polls do seem to suggest that reform have hit a roof.
With a gargantuan majority I don't think Leon's speculation is without merit, when Labour have such form.
I've made it clear for years now that my vote is going to be whatever I feel is best to shift the Tories out.
I voted Lib Dem last time and I have no regrets even though they had no hope in that election in my seat. "Bollocks to Brexit" was the right message for me.
But this time it's a punishment vote. Tories out. Show me evidence that puts one party ahead of the others, and I'll listen.
In 2019, the over 65s went 64% Conservative, 17% Labour - if it's now 40.5% Conservative, 25% Labour that's a 16% swing which isn't too shabby. Among younger age groups the swing will be much larger.
We also have plenty of evidence older voters back Reform so some of your erstwhile Tories (whatever they may tell you on the doorstep) might support Farage.
It’s Brexit. Brexit is really hurting the Tories, at least in this particular stretch of unknown length in British political history.
5 Lab, 4 Con, 1 LD
Quite likely
To borrow your hyperbolic language.
(pro tip, Putin actually is pretty evil.)
This time you don't. Oldies alone is quite a demographic, but insufficient when everyone who works for a living is against you.
The Tories used to be the party of those who work for a living. That you're not anymore is a major problem and why you deserve what is coming to you.
With a gargantuan majority, Labour could pass a law requiring all men to become women, and vice versa. They could pass a law forbidding people to eat apples. They're mad enough to do it. We know what Labour is like. So I would like to say that I think Leon is absolutely spot on this time.
The consensus from others seems to be that both leaders did okay - succeeded in getting their key points across, didn't make any obvious errors. Is that your impression too?