The last dozen polls average Labour 40%, Con 19.6%, Reform 17.5%, Lib Dem 11.2%, Green 6.3%. The Conservatives are now working very hard to drive their vote into the mid teens.
My sixth sense is that the betting scandal could be terminal for them.
Whatever comes of the Conservatives after the election they need to employ someone like Cyclefree to tell them how to behave.
You shouldn't need an expert to tell you how to behave. Some common sense and a moral compass should do it.
Those two things have been obviously lacking among far too many Conservative politicians.
So they do need an expert.
They don't need an expert, they need politicians with morals.
Whoa, easy there. Let’s start with common sense before we get to anything too fancy.
If all the extrapolation of the polls is right, the Tories will win something between 75 and 150 seats.
But where are these seats ?
Labour facing shire seats or small town seats without Reform vote attractors plus some LD facing holds, sprinkled with some London and Scotland fairy dust
Gove is going. He may well come back and step in to be the temporary leader. Why not? He has already done as much damage as possible. A little more perhaps? Or Boris and Farage as joint leaders.
Even to be in temporary charge you need to be an MP - so it's going to be the most senior minister left standing (dread to think who that could be).
Steve Baker. Is he staying.
He wont hold Wycombe
Although Wycombe is a seat which has been Conservative since 1951, and which Steve Baker held with majorities of up to 14K since 2010, on paper his current 4,214 majority is too small to survive.
However the Labour Party in the seat has been historically very fractious, and the previous Labour candidate, Khalil Ahmad, is standing for the Workers Party and there is a large ethnic minority base which he can appeal to. There are also nine candidates so the ballot is very crowded,
Meanwhile the Lib Dem vote is not very squeezable and would not be enough to get Labour over the line anyway.
I think this is going to be much closer than similar marginals, and I could even see Baker surviving by a miniscule margin. As ever DYOR, but 1/7 Labour odds seem over done and although Baker at 7/2 is not massive value, it may not be unrealistic.
The YouGov MRP has Labour winning Wycombe by 44% to 22%, so don't risk too much on Baker!
Good morning again Ian. A gentle comment from me but having made big play of Alex’s warning about NOT using the MRPs to focus on individual constituency results you have been doing exactly that!
I’ve asked you a few times to provide the link to your claim that yesterday’s MRP showed LibDems for Newton Abbot? I was out and the only MRP I saw yesterday was from Savanta which has Labour, not LibDems. This was published in the Telegraph and tallies with New Statesman’s assessment using Best for Britain, with Labour the main contenders. YouGov’s MRP had the Conservatives holding on.
I don’t doubt that you have a link, I’d just like to see it please. Evidence and all that.
It’s certainly a confused picture. The LibDems have pulled resources out of Newton Abbot to focus elsewhere in the South-west, whilst Labour have begun piling in.
We could well have a 3-way split with Anne Morris (Con) coming through again.
I told you in my post that the link was upthread, in the post immediately above yours in the conversation, one click away. You can get the seat data by clicking on the map.
Completely separate, there's the second YouGov MRP, which does have a base of local panellists in the poll, putting the Tories on 29.2% and the LibDems on 24.7% with Labour back on 16.1%
I think this was the very encouraging link to Newton Abbot
Biden is (just) ahead in 538's national polling average for the first time, though still has an electoral college disadvantage. He's slightly behind in the Pennsylvania average, and only has a very narrow path to victory.
Biden has lost. He slipped too far behind in the electoral college votes weeks ago. The “he’s a dementia patient not a president” attack line has won over more than enough independents. Trump is getting back in.
Crazy politics everywhere. Voters don’t seem to know what they really want, except that they really want it.
Anybody opining with absolute certainty about the US Presidential election is an idiot. We're still almost five months from the election, and almost anything could happen, not least a health event for one (or both) of the candidates.
Yes call me an idiot.
And yes, when I called the election this early, its on basis of no swans or health emergencies come along, just continue on it’s inevitable current narrative.
But the position Trump has in the college pickups, the Blue Wall, bell weather Ohio, is just too strong at this stage of any election, especially one where what can an incumbent still throw at it, that should actually already be working by now but isn’t?
Isn’t there enough evidence for you the Dem ticket polls stronger down ticket than at the top?
PB certainly needs to switch from its preoccupations with the Popular Vote polling to the college polling, as a narrow PV win for Biden really is curtains for him, is not an idiotic comment from me either, just merely being honest and helpful.
I’m not shrilling for Trump. I don’t like the idea. I think voters in UK and US have gone nuts, but we survived 4 years of Trump before, and will again. And no, none of this “but you will never get him out if he gets back in” nonsense - the security forces and military will remove MAGA from the White House in five years time if they need to.
There. I’ve called it. Both UK and US elections over in betting terms, we know the results. I’m going to play with my Wilbur.
Women's rights to control their reproductive decisions will be a massive driver of turnout in the election. And every Republican from Trump down is on the wrong side of that issue.
Plus every poll of real voters shows the opinion polling to be massively off - the Democrats just do W-A-Y better than the polling says they should.
Abortion favours the Democrats. Immigration and interest rates favour the Republicans.
Trump is consistently ahead in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. That takes him up to 263 EC votes. This is going to be a very tight election.
The polling for the mid-terms was pretty accurate. It's just that a lot of commentators thought that the Republicans would outpeform the polling.
The last dozen polls average Labour 40%, Con 19.6%, Reform 17.5%, Lib Dem 11.2%, Green 6.3%. The Conservatives are now working very hard to drive their vote into the mid teens.
My sixth sense is that the betting scandal could be terminal for them.
Whatever comes of the Conservatives after the election they need to employ someone like Cyclefree to tell them how to behave.
You shouldn't need an expert to tell you how to behave. Some common sense and a moral compass should do it.
Those two things have been obviously lacking among far too many Conservative politicians.
So they do need an expert.
They don't need an expert, they need politicians with morals.
But where do you find them ?
And how do you know they have morals until they're elected and the temptations begin.
That's why they need someone like CycleFree, in the same way the financial sector need people like her.
The last dozen polls average Labour 40%, Con 19.6%, Reform 17.5%, Lib Dem 11.2%, Green 6.3%. The Conservatives are now working very hard to drive their vote into the mid teens.
My sixth sense is that the betting scandal could be terminal for them.
Whatever comes of the Conservatives after the election they need to employ someone like Cyclefree to tell them how to behave.
You shouldn't need an expert to tell you how to behave. Some common sense and a moral compass should do it.
Those two things have been obviously lacking among far too many Conservative politicians.
So they do need an expert.
They don't need an expert, they need politicians with morals.
But where do you find them ?
And how do you know they have morals until they're elected and the temptations begin.
That's why they need someone like CycleFree, in the same way the financial sector need people like her.
Now you are asking the difficult questions. I can only do the easy ones.
Anywhere with pleasant countryside will vote Tory unless the Lib Dems overturn them.This will be the case in the South and South West of England. Parts of Shropshire, North Yorkshire, Rural Debyshire,the Tories still have friends in the North and Lincolnshire I believe. Even some rural parts of the rural Midlands.If I am wrong I am happy to be corrected now and after the election.
The last dozen polls average Labour 40%, Con 19.6%, Reform 17.5%, Lib Dem 11.2%, Green 6.3%. The Conservatives are now working very hard to drive their vote into the mid teens.
My sixth sense is that the betting scandal could be terminal for them.
DDayGate followed by BettingGate 10 days later - there's just enough time for another one to pop up.
I like DDayGate but maybe GambleGate has more of a ring?
Aren't we due a Downfall?
We need an MP to get caught sheepshagging, so that we can have a Ramsgate.
Very good PtP!
In retrospect the Expenses scandal should have been called Billingsgate.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Precisely so.
I don’t think so, because I am sure You underestimate how Labour dine out on this current government shambles over time. This is the platinum version of 1974-1979. This is the most infamous and well earned kick out of government ever. Lying. Sleaze. Food costs. Mortgages. Sewage. When I needed a dentist it wasn’t there. Split party, awful PMs. There is so much here that is going to be remembered long into the future and continue to help Labour re-election chances in the General Elections to come. When trust, competence is lost, it’s a long time of hard work to get it back.
After the election of Jeremy Corbyn in 2015, even now in this election 9 years later Labour are struggling with the damage of it, so you should easily imagine how this outgoing government will still be remembered in 10 years time and longer.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Precisely so.
I don’t think so, because I am sure You underestimate how Labour dine out on this current government shambles over time. This is the platinum version of 1974-1979. This is the most infamous and well earned kick out of government ever. Lying. Sleaze. Food costs. Mortgages. Sewage. When I needed a dentist it wasn’t there. Split party, awful PMs. There is so much here that is going to be remembered long into the future and continue to help Labour re-election chances in the General Elections to come. When trust, competence is lost, it’s a long time of hard work to get it back.
After the election of Jeremy Corbyn in 2015, even now in this election 9 years later Labour are struggling with the damage of it, so you should easily imagine how this outgoing government will still be remembered in 10 years time and longer.
Plus the fact Hunt and Sunak have fixed it that Labour have the UKs highest tax take since Second World War to benefit from, and economic growth is going to happen too in next parliament, lots of money coming in, A Labour tax cutting budget on eve of next election shoots all the Tory foxes doesn’t it?
Also Labour can operate with all the Brexit powers, they have more power and opportunity in next 10 years+ of parliamentary dominance free from EU membership than any government in last 65 years, except this current one that lost its opportunity due to covid, war and internal infighting.
Gove is going. He may well come back and step in to be the temporary leader. Why not? He has already done as much damage as possible. A little more perhaps? Or Boris and Farage as joint leaders.
Even to be in temporary charge you need to be an MP - so it's going to be the most senior minister left standing (dread to think who that could be).
Steve Baker. Is he staying.
He wont hold Wycombe
Although Wycombe is a seat which has been Conservative since 1951, and which Steve Baker held with majorities of up to 14K since 2010, on paper his current 4,214 majority is too small to survive.
However the Labour Party in the seat has been historically very fractious, and the previous Labour candidate, Khalil Ahmad, is standing for the Workers Party and there is a large ethnic minority base which he can appeal to. There are also nine candidates so the ballot is very crowded,
Meanwhile the Lib Dem vote is not very squeezable and would not be enough to get Labour over the line anyway.
I think this is going to be much closer than similar marginals, and I could even see Baker surviving by a miniscule margin. As ever DYOR, but 1/7 Labour odds seem over done and although Baker at 7/2 is not massive value, it may not be unrealistic.
The YouGov MRP has Labour winning Wycombe by 44% to 22%, so don't risk too much on Baker!
Good morning again Ian. A gentle comment from me but having made big play of Alex’s warning about NOT using the MRPs to focus on individual constituency results you have been doing exactly that!
I’ve asked you a few times to provide the link to your claim that yesterday’s MRP showed LibDems for Newton Abbot? I was out and the only MRP I saw yesterday was from Savanta which has Labour, not LibDems. This was published in the Telegraph and tallies with New Statesman’s assessment using Best for Britain, with Labour the main contenders. YouGov’s MRP had the Conservatives holding on.
I don’t doubt that you have a link, I’d just like to see it please. Evidence and all that.
It’s certainly a confused picture. The LibDems have pulled resources out of Newton Abbot to focus elsewhere in the South-west, whilst Labour have begun piling in.
We could well have a 3-way split with Anne Morris (Con) coming through again.
I told you in my post that the link was upthread, in the post immediately above yours in the conversation, one click away. You can get the seat data by clicking on the map.
Completely separate, there's the second YouGov MRP, which does have a base of local panellists in the poll, putting the Tories on 29.2% and the LibDems on 24.7% with Labour back on 16.1%
I think this was the very encouraging link to Newton Abbot
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Precisely so.
I don’t think so, because I am sure You underestimate how Labour dine out on this current government shambles over time. This is the platinum version of 1974-1979. This is the most infamous and well earned kick out of government ever. Lying. Sleaze. Food costs. Mortgages. Sewage. When I needed a dentist it wasn’t there. Split party, awful PMs. There is so much here that is going to be remembered long into the future and continue to help Labour re-election chances in the General Elections to come. When trust, competence is lost, it’s a long time of hard work to get it back.
After the election of Jeremy Corbyn in 2015, even now in this election 9 years later Labour are struggling with the damage of it, so you should easily imagine how this outgoing government will still be remembered in 10 years time and longer.
+1
A generation. And the longer the likes of CR, WO, MM, Luckyguy etc inside the tory party deny this, the longer they will be out of power.
For a while the Conservatives need to focus on where they went wrong. Not how they hope Labour will.
Gove is going. He may well come back and step in to be the temporary leader. Why not? He has already done as much damage as possible. A little more perhaps? Or Boris and Farage as joint leaders.
Even to be in temporary charge you need to be an MP - so it's going to be the most senior minister left standing (dread to think who that could be).
Steve Baker. Is he staying.
He wont hold Wycombe
Although Wycombe is a seat which has been Conservative since 1951, and which Steve Baker held with majorities of up to 14K since 2010, on paper his current 4,214 majority is too small to survive.
However the Labour Party in the seat has been historically very fractious, and the previous Labour candidate, Khalil Ahmad, is standing for the Workers Party and there is a large ethnic minority base which he can appeal to. There are also nine candidates so the ballot is very crowded,
Meanwhile the Lib Dem vote is not very squeezable and would not be enough to get Labour over the line anyway.
I think this is going to be much closer than similar marginals, and I could even see Baker surviving by a miniscule margin. As ever DYOR, but 1/7 Labour odds seem over done and although Baker at 7/2 is not massive value, it may not be unrealistic.
The YouGov MRP has Labour winning Wycombe by 44% to 22%, so don't risk too much on Baker!
Good morning again Ian. A gentle comment from me but having made big play of Alex’s warning about NOT using the MRPs to focus on individual constituency results you have been doing exactly that!
I’ve asked you a few times to provide the link to your claim that yesterday’s MRP showed LibDems for Newton Abbot? I was out and the only MRP I saw yesterday was from Savanta which has Labour, not LibDems. This was published in the Telegraph and tallies with New Statesman’s assessment using Best for Britain, with Labour the main contenders. YouGov’s MRP had the Conservatives holding on.
I don’t doubt that you have a link, I’d just like to see it please. Evidence and all that.
It’s certainly a confused picture. The LibDems have pulled resources out of Newton Abbot to focus elsewhere in the South-west, whilst Labour have begun piling in.
We could well have a 3-way split with Anne Morris (Con) coming through again.
I told you in my post that the link was upthread, in the post immediately above yours in the conversation, one click away. You can get the seat data by clicking on the map.
Completely separate, there's the second YouGov MRP, which does have a base of local panellists in the poll, putting the Tories on 29.2% and the LibDems on 24.7% with Labour back on 16.1%
I think this was the very encouraging link to Newton Abbot
Hmmmm. This confirms what I have suspected. You’re not making this assertion with impartiality but with a vested interest (LibDem). There’s nothing wrong with that but on a betting site it needs to be noted.
And that’s the link to Ben Walker’s Britain Predicts ‘model’
I am not suggesting Newton Abbot may not go LibDem. There’s a case for all 3 main contenders, which is why tactical voting sites are not at all clear cut about it. My hunch right now is that it will remain Conservative.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Precisely so.
I don’t think so, because I am sure You underestimate how Labour dine out on this current government shambles over time. This is the platinum version of 1974-1979. This is the most infamous and well earned kick out of government ever. Lying. Sleaze. Food costs. Mortgages. Sewage. When I needed a dentist it wasn’t there. Split party, awful PMs. There is so much here that is going to be remembered long into the future and continue to help Labour re-election chances in the General Elections to come. When trust, competence is lost, it’s a long time of hard work to get it back.
After the election of Jeremy Corbyn in 2015, even now in this election 9 years later Labour are struggling with the damage of it, so you should easily imagine how this outgoing government will still be remembered in 10 years time and longer.
There will certainly be an element of that.
But new problems arise and they get the focus.
As an example, what the effect AI will be on middle class employment.
In five years time people might be looking back on the Sunak premiership as the time when everyone could get a job.
Daily Mail says Priti Patel is the likely 'unity' candidate left standing
Please no. What a unpleasant person. Please God no.
She would make an excellent post-election leader for the Tories. This is the time that all the crazies come out. The real leader is still 5 to 7 years away...
Agreed about your second point, but in fact I think that with maybe 120 MPs, many on very thin majorities, the Tory Party will be a very delicate flower. The kind of rough handling at anyone close to Farage, like PP, is likely give to the party may end up killing it outright. I could see many MPs joining Rory Stewart et al in a long march to the Liberal Democrats if Patel gets the leadership.
This time the Tories need an actually Conservative leader, and Patel ain´t it.
Excellent points. After the election if it works out as expected, the Tories will be utterly irrelevant. It will be an unaccustomed, and uncomfortable, place to be. Will they move quickly to change that situation or will they lose all remaining discipline?
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Precisely so.
I don’t think so, because I am sure You underestimate how Labour dine out on this current government shambles over time. This is the platinum version of 1974-1979. This is the most infamous and well earned kick out of government ever. Lying. Sleaze. Food costs. Mortgages. Sewage. When I needed a dentist it wasn’t there. Split party, awful PMs. There is so much here that is going to be remembered long into the future and continue to help Labour re-election chances in the General Elections to come. When trust, competence is lost, it’s a long time of hard work to get it back.
After the election of Jeremy Corbyn in 2015, even now in this election 9 years later Labour are struggling with the damage of it, so you should easily imagine how this outgoing government will still be remembered in 10 years time and longer.
Plus the fact Hunt and Sunak have fixed it that Labour have the UKs highest tax take since Second World War to benefit from, and economic growth is going to happen too in next parliament, lots of money coming in, A Labour tax cutting budget on eve of next election shoots all the Tory foxes doesn’t it?
Also Labour can operate with all the Brexit powers, they have more power and opportunity in next 10 years+ of parliamentary dominance free from EU membership than any government in last 65 years, except this current one that lost its opportunity due to covid, war and internal infighting.
The highest tax take is not a benefit because it's high tax attached to stupidly low spending partly due to an older population partly due to issues I no-one can seem to identify.
So as @Casino_Royale pointed out earlier the next budget (probably in October) is going to be horrendous but all the blame will be laid on the tory party probably going all the way back to Osbourne in 2010...
Anywhere with pleasant countryside will vote Tory unless the Lib Dems overturn them.This will be the case in the South and South West of England. Parts of Shropshire, North Yorkshire, Rural Debyshire,the Tories still have friends in the North and Lincolnshire I believe. Even some rural parts of the rural Midlands.If I am wrong I am happy to be corrected now and after the election.
I live a few hundred yards east of Ashford’s boundary with the new Weald of Kent Constituency and about half a mile south of its boundary with Canterbury. Here in the Ashford bit of the Kent Downs National Landscape (fomerly known as Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty) we are down on most prognostications as leaning Lab for the first time in history. This is slightly evidenced by Damian Green’s failed chicken run to Weald of Kent and his subsequent meek return to Ashford - something Labour is making a big deal of locally.
If some of the extrapolation of the current polls is right, the Tories will win something between 75 and 150 seats.
But where are these seats ?
In the Shires.
Plus the usual suspects in the Surrey Hills and places like it.
Which constituencies do you have in mind?
Surrey is turning increasingly LibDem
Dorking. Walton and Weybrige. Waverley. Epsom.Esher that could go Lib Dem. East Surrey. Shy Tory country. Say they will vote one way and do the opposite.
Anywhere with pleasant countryside will vote Tory unless the Lib Dems overturn them.This will be the case in the South and South West of England. Parts of Shropshire, North Yorkshire, Rural Debyshire,the Tories still have friends in the North and Lincolnshire I believe. Even some rural parts of the rural Midlands.If I am wrong I am happy to be corrected now and after the election.
The Southwest is looking quite likely to return to its Liberal, Noncomformist roots, I think. I agree that that belt of the rural north certainly sounds more plausible , though, on the other side.
I would imagine Sussex and Kent are also very strong contenders for being holdouts, too, from their parliamentary history.
Biden is (just) ahead in 538's national polling average for the first time, though still has an electoral college disadvantage. He's slightly behind in the Pennsylvania average, and only has a very narrow path to victory.
Biden has lost. He slipped too far behind in the electoral college votes weeks ago. The “he’s a dementia patient not a president” attack line has won over more than enough independents. Trump is getting back in.
Crazy politics everywhere. Voters don’t seem to know what they really want, except that they really want it.
Anybody opining with absolute certainty about the US Presidential election is an idiot. We're still almost five months from the election, and almost anything could happen, not least a health event for one (or both) of the candidates.
Yes call me an idiot.
And yes, when I called the election this early, its on basis of no swans or health emergencies come along, just continue on it’s inevitable current narrative.
But the position Trump has in the college pickups, the Blue Wall, bell weather Ohio, is just too strong at this stage of any election, especially one where what can an incumbent still throw at it, that should actually already be working by now but isn’t?
Isn’t there enough evidence for you the Dem ticket polls stronger down ticket than at the top?
PB certainly needs to switch from its preoccupations with the Popular Vote polling to the college polling, as a narrow PV win for Biden really is curtains for him, is not an idiotic comment from me either, just merely being honest and helpful.
I’m not shrilling for Trump. I don’t like the idea. I think voters in UK and US have gone nuts, but we survived 4 years of Trump before, and will again. And no, none of this “but you will never get him out if he gets back in” nonsense - the security forces and military will remove MAGA from the White House in five years time if they need to.
There. I’ve called it. Both UK and US elections over in betting terms, we know the results. I’m going to play with my Wilbur.
Women's rights to control their reproductive decisions will be a massive driver of turnout in the election. And every Republican from Trump down is on the wrong side of that issue.
Plus every poll of real voters shows the opinion polling to be massively off - the Democrats just do W-A-Y better than the polling says they should.
Abortion favours the Democrats. Immigration and interest rates favour the Republicans.
Trump is consistently ahead in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. That takes him up to 263 EC votes. This is going to be a very tight election.
The polling for the mid-terms was pretty accurate. It's just that a lot of commentators thought that the Republicans would outpeform the polling.
Latest head to head match up in Nevda is Trump 50%, Biden 50% (samples 13 - 18th June). Previous June 1 - 5th was Trump +5%.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
It's not impossible, but the wisdom of the last five years has been Labour can't overturn a Tory majority of 80 in one sitting. Funny how the Tories now can do just that.
The other thing, assuming a Labour Government is elected, is expectations are so low Labour don't have to get too much right to exceed them.
This narrative is very similar to that we heard from dejected Conservatives in 1997. And yet just five years ago it was all "is Boris is four term Prime Minister?"
If some of the extrapolation of the current polls is right, the Tories will win something between 75 and 150 seats.
But where are these seats ?
In the Shires.
Plus the usual suspects in the Surrey Hills and places like it.
Which constituencies do you have in mind?
Surrey is turning increasingly LibDem
Dorking. Walton and Weybrige. Waverley. Epsom.Esher that could go Lib Dem. East Surrey. Shy Tory country. Say they will vote one way and do the opposite.
As I said I happy to be corrected. After the election we will have definitive answer. It will be revealing to see exactly how these and all the rest around the country voted.
The last dozen polls average Labour 40%, Con 19.6%, Reform 17.5%, Lib Dem 11.2%, Green 6.3%. The Conservatives are now working very hard to drive their vote into the mid teens.
My sixth sense is that the betting scandal could be terminal for them.
DDayGate followed by BettingGate 10 days later - there's just enough time for another one to pop up.
I like DDayGate but maybe GambleGate has more of a ring?
Aren't we due a Downfall?
We need an MP to get caught sheepshagging, so that we can have a Ramsgate.
Very good PtP!
In retrospect the Expenses scandal should have been called Billingsgate.
Biden is (just) ahead in 538's national polling average for the first time, though still has an electoral college disadvantage. He's slightly behind in the Pennsylvania average, and only has a very narrow path to victory.
Biden has lost. He slipped too far behind in the electoral college votes weeks ago. The “he’s a dementia patient not a president” attack line has won over more than enough independents. Trump is getting back in.
Crazy politics everywhere. Voters don’t seem to know what they really want, except that they really want it.
Anybody opining with absolute certainty about the US Presidential election is an idiot. We're still almost five months from the election, and almost anything could happen, not least a health event for one (or both) of the candidates.
Yes call me an idiot.
And yes, when I called the election this early, its on basis of no swans or health emergencies come along, just continue on it’s inevitable current narrative.
But the position Trump has in the college pickups, the Blue Wall, bell weather Ohio, is just too strong at this stage of any election, especially one where what can an incumbent still throw at it, that should actually already be working by now but isn’t?
Isn’t there enough evidence for you the Dem ticket polls stronger down ticket than at the top?
PB certainly needs to switch from its preoccupations with the Popular Vote polling to the college polling, as a narrow PV win for Biden really is curtains for him, is not an idiotic comment from me either, just merely being honest and helpful.
I’m not shrilling for Trump. I don’t like the idea. I think voters in UK and US have gone nuts, but we survived 4 years of Trump before, and will again. And no, none of this “but you will never get him out if he gets back in” nonsense - the security forces and military will remove MAGA from the White House in five years time if they need to.
There. I’ve called it. Both UK and US elections over in betting terms, we know the results. I’m going to play with my Wilbur.
Women's rights to control their reproductive decisions will be a massive driver of turnout in the election. And every Republican from Trump down is on the wrong side of that issue.
Plus every poll of real voters shows the opinion polling to be massively off - the Democrats just do W-A-Y better than the polling says they should.
Abortion favours the Democrats. Immigration and interest rates favour the Republicans.
Trump is consistently ahead in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. That takes him up to 263 EC votes. This is going to be a very tight election.
The polling for the mid-terms was pretty accurate. It's just that a lot of commentators thought that the Republicans would outpeform the polling.
Latest head to head match up in Nevda is Trump 50%, Biden 50% (samples 13 - 18th June). Previous June 1 - 5th was Trump +5%.
Georgia. Some rednecks and Arizona same again. His base.
Biden is (just) ahead in 538's national polling average for the first time, though still has an electoral college disadvantage. He's slightly behind in the Pennsylvania average, and only has a very narrow path to victory.
Biden has lost. He slipped too far behind in the electoral college votes weeks ago. The “he’s a dementia patient not a president” attack line has won over more than enough independents. Trump is getting back in.
Crazy politics everywhere. Voters don’t seem to know what they really want, except that they really want it.
Anybody opining with absolute certainty about the US Presidential election is an idiot. We're still almost five months from the election, and almost anything could happen, not least a health event for one (or both) of the candidates.
Yes call me an idiot.
And yes, when I called the election this early, its on basis of no swans or health emergencies come along, just continue on it’s inevitable current narrative.
But the position Trump has in the college pickups, the Blue Wall, bell weather Ohio, is just too strong at this stage of any election, especially one where what can an incumbent still throw at it, that should actually already be working by now but isn’t?
Isn’t there enough evidence for you the Dem ticket polls stronger down ticket than at the top?
PB certainly needs to switch from its preoccupations with the Popular Vote polling to the college polling, as a narrow PV win for Biden really is curtains for him, is not an idiotic comment from me either, just merely being honest and helpful.
I’m not shrilling for Trump. I don’t like the idea. I think voters in UK and US have gone nuts, but we survived 4 years of Trump before, and will again. And no, none of this “but you will never get him out if he gets back in” nonsense - the security forces and military will remove MAGA from the White House in five years time if they need to.
There. I’ve called it. Both UK and US elections over in betting terms, we know the results. I’m going to play with my Wilbur.
Women's rights to control their reproductive decisions will be a massive driver of turnout in the election. And every Republican from Trump down is on the wrong side of that issue.
Plus every poll of real voters shows the opinion polling to be massively off - the Democrats just do W-A-Y better than the polling says they should.
Abortion favours the Democrats. Immigration and interest rates favour the Republicans.
Trump is consistently ahead in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. That takes him up to 263 EC votes. This is going to be a very tight election.
The polling for the mid-terms was pretty accurate. It's just that a lot of commentators thought that the Republicans would outpeform the polling.
Virtually every special election over the past year has seen the Democrats do far better than the polling suggested.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Precisely so.
I don’t think so, because I am sure You underestimate how Labour dine out on this current government shambles over time. This is the platinum version of 1974-1979. This is the most infamous and well earned kick out of government ever. Lying. Sleaze. Food costs. Mortgages. Sewage. When I needed a dentist it wasn’t there. Split party, awful PMs. There is so much here that is going to be remembered long into the future and continue to help Labour re-election chances in the General Elections to come. When trust, competence is lost, it’s a long time of hard work to get it back.
After the election of Jeremy Corbyn in 2015, even now in this election 9 years later Labour are struggling with the damage of it, so you should easily imagine how this outgoing government will still be remembered in 10 years time and longer.
Plus the fact Hunt and Sunak have fixed it that Labour have the UKs highest tax take since Second World War to benefit from, and economic growth is going to happen too in next parliament, lots of money coming in, A Labour tax cutting budget on eve of next election shoots all the Tory foxes doesn’t it?
Also Labour can operate with all the Brexit powers, they have more power and opportunity in next 10 years+ of parliamentary dominance free from EU membership than any government in last 65 years, except this current one that lost its opportunity due to covid, war and internal infighting.
Noteworthy Labour has given up on their "Making Brexit work" rhetoric, while the Tories are completely silent on their one supposed achievement: "get Brexit done".
Hardly anyone thinks Brexit does work. Which is a problem. It will need to be addressed at some point.
If some of the extrapolation of the current polls is right, the Tories will win something between 75 and 150 seats.
But where are these seats ?
In the Shires.
Plus the usual suspects in the Surrey Hills and places like it.
Which constituencies do you have in mind?
Surrey is turning increasingly LibDem
Dorking. Walton and Weybrige. Waverley. Epsom.Esher that could go Lib Dem. East Surrey. Shy Tory country. Say they will vote one way and do the opposite.
Ah okay, thanks. Most of those aren’t in the Surrey Hills but I get your drift.
It’s a bold call by you. All of those are predicted by Electoral Calculus to go LibDem except Runnymede & Weybridge and East Surrey
I spend a lot of my time in the area, telling people 2 yrs ago to bet on Woking Council going LibDem - the odds were great and some people made money listening to me.
I think you’re badly wrong on this. Imho the tories have blown it in Surrey. But time will tell.
Biden is (just) ahead in 538's national polling average for the first time, though still has an electoral college disadvantage. He's slightly behind in the Pennsylvania average, and only has a very narrow path to victory.
Biden has lost. He slipped too far behind in the electoral college votes weeks ago. The “he’s a dementia patient not a president” attack line has won over more than enough independents. Trump is getting back in.
Crazy politics everywhere. Voters don’t seem to know what they really want, except that they really want it.
Anybody opining with absolute certainty about the US Presidential election is an idiot. We're still almost five months from the election, and almost anything could happen, not least a health event for one (or both) of the candidates.
Yes call me an idiot.
And yes, when I called the election this early, its on basis of no swans or health emergencies come along, just continue on it’s inevitable current narrative.
But the position Trump has in the college pickups, the Blue Wall, bell weather Ohio, is just too strong at this stage of any election, especially one where what can an incumbent still throw at it, that should actually already be working by now but isn’t?
Isn’t there enough evidence for you the Dem ticket polls stronger down ticket than at the top?
PB certainly needs to switch from its preoccupations with the Popular Vote polling to the college polling, as a narrow PV win for Biden really is curtains for him, is not an idiotic comment from me either, just merely being honest and helpful.
I’m not shrilling for Trump. I don’t like the idea. I think voters in UK and US have gone nuts, but we survived 4 years of Trump before, and will again. And no, none of this “but you will never get him out if he gets back in” nonsense - the security forces and military will remove MAGA from the White House in five years time if they need to.
There. I’ve called it. Both UK and US elections over in betting terms, we know the results. I’m going to play with my Wilbur.
Women's rights to control their reproductive decisions will be a massive driver of turnout in the election. And every Republican from Trump down is on the wrong side of that issue.
Plus every poll of real voters shows the opinion polling to be massively off - the Democrats just do W-A-Y better than the polling says they should.
Abortion favours the Democrats. Immigration and interest rates favour the Republicans.
Trump is consistently ahead in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. That takes him up to 263 EC votes. This is going to be a very tight election.
The polling for the mid-terms was pretty accurate. It's just that a lot of commentators thought that the Republicans would outpeform the polling.
Latest head to head match up in Nevda is Trump 50%, Biden 50% (samples 13 - 18th June). Previous June 1 - 5th was Trump +5%.
Georgia. Some rednecks and Arizona same again. His base.
Nate Silver. Lets see what he thinks about the USA election.He got it wrong with clinton.He called the other elections.
The last dozen polls average Labour 40%, Con 19.6%, Reform 17.5%, Lib Dem 11.2%, Green 6.3%. The Conservatives are now working very hard to drive their vote into the mid teens.
My sixth sense is that the betting scandal could be terminal for them.
DDayGate followed by BettingGate 10 days later - there's just enough time for another one to pop up.
I like DDayGate but maybe GambleGate has more of a ring?
Aren't we due a Downfall?
We need an MP to get caught sheepshagging, so that we can have a Ramsgate.
Very good PtP!
In retrospect the Expenses scandal should have been called Billingsgate.
Another clerical scandal: Bishopgate Anyone who knows York at all has a wealth of opportunity to really get ahead of this game - assuming everyone else does too.
Biden is (just) ahead in 538's national polling average for the first time, though still has an electoral college disadvantage. He's slightly behind in the Pennsylvania average, and only has a very narrow path to victory.
Biden has lost. He slipped too far behind in the electoral college votes weeks ago. The “he’s a dementia patient not a president” attack line has won over more than enough independents. Trump is getting back in.
Crazy politics everywhere. Voters don’t seem to know what they really want, except that they really want it.
Anybody opining with absolute certainty about the US Presidential election is an idiot. We're still almost five months from the election, and almost anything could happen, not least a health event for one (or both) of the candidates.
Yes call me an idiot.
And yes, when I called the election this early, its on basis of no swans or health emergencies come along, just continue on it’s inevitable current narrative.
But the position Trump has in the college pickups, the Blue Wall, bell weather Ohio, is just too strong at this stage of any election, especially one where what can an incumbent still throw at it, that should actually already be working by now but isn’t?
Isn’t there enough evidence for you the Dem ticket polls stronger down ticket than at the top?
PB certainly needs to switch from its preoccupations with the Popular Vote polling to the college polling, as a narrow PV win for Biden really is curtains for him, is not an idiotic comment from me either, just merely being honest and helpful.
I’m not shrilling for Trump. I don’t like the idea. I think voters in UK and US have gone nuts, but we survived 4 years of Trump before, and will again. And no, none of this “but you will never get him out if he gets back in” nonsense - the security forces and military will remove MAGA from the White House in five years time if they need to.
There. I’ve called it. Both UK and US elections over in betting terms, we know the results. I’m going to play with my Wilbur.
Women's rights to control their reproductive decisions will be a massive driver of turnout in the election. And every Republican from Trump down is on the wrong side of that issue.
Plus every poll of real voters shows the opinion polling to be massively off - the Democrats just do W-A-Y better than the polling says they should.
Abortion favours the Democrats. Immigration and interest rates favour the Republicans.
Trump is consistently ahead in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. That takes him up to 263 EC votes. This is going to be a very tight election.
The polling for the mid-terms was pretty accurate. It's just that a lot of commentators thought that the Republicans would outpeform the polling.
Latest head to head match up in Nevda is Trump 50%, Biden 50% (samples 13 - 18th June). Previous June 1 - 5th was Trump +5%.
I hope you're right.
I'd offer you a other fiver years of swivel -eyed UK Conservatism in exchange for a Trump defeat.
If some of the extrapolation of the current polls is right, the Tories will win something between 75 and 150 seats.
But where are these seats ?
In the Shires.
Plus the usual suspects in the Surrey Hills and places like it.
Which constituencies do you have in mind?
Surrey is turning increasingly LibDem
Dorking. Walton and Weybrige. Waverley. Epsom.Esher that could go Lib Dem. East Surrey. Shy Tory country. Say they will vote one way and do the opposite.
Ah okay, thanks. Most of those aren’t in the Surrey Hills but I get your drift.
It’s a bold call by you. All of those are predicted by Electoral Calculus to go LibDem except Runnymede & Weybridge and East Surrey
I spend a lot of my time in the area, telling people 2 yrs ago to bet on Woking Council going LibDem - the odds were great and some people made money listening to me.
I think you’re badly wrong on this. Imho he tories have blown it in Surrey. But time will tell.
p.s. Waverley = Farnham & Bordon I believe. That looks like a LibDem gain to me. In which case it would be interesting to see whether the yellow ripple reaches down the A3 as far as Fareham.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
It's not impossible, but the wisdom of the last five years has been Labour can't overturn a Tory majority of 80 in one sitting. Funny how the Tories now can do just that.
The other thing, assuming a Labour Government is elected, is expectations are so low Labour don't have to get too much right to exceed them.
This narrative is very similar to that we heard from dejected Conservatives in 1997. And yet just five years ago it was all "is Boris is four term Prime Minister?"
The wisdom was based on the fact it had never been done before.
It's not however been achieved by the Labour party themselves over 90% of the destruction of the Tory party vote has been done by the Tory party themselves through Boris, Truss, Rishi and then this utterly self destructing election campaign..
Which is why I think it's safe to say that Labour will be in power for 2 elections minimum, there is zero chance SKS and co will run a Government as incompetent and as policy / law empty as the last 5 years...
I agree with you on Woking and Guildford. As I said shy Tory country. I do a lot of country walks there and speak to a few people. I can see your point. Some may swing Lib Dem but not all for sure.
If some of the extrapolation of the current polls is right, the Tories will win something between 75 and 150 seats.
But where are these seats ?
In the Shires.
Plus the usual suspects in the Surrey Hills and places like it.
Which constituencies do you have in mind?
Surrey is turning increasingly LibDem
Dorking. Walton and Weybrige. Waverley. Epsom.Esher that could go Lib Dem. East Surrey. Shy Tory country. Say they will vote one way and do the opposite.
Ah okay, thanks. Most of those aren’t in the Surrey Hills but I get your drift.
It’s a bold call by you. All of those are predicted by Electoral Calculus to go LibDem except Runnymede & Weybridge and East Surrey
I spend a lot of my time in the area, telling people 2 yrs ago to bet on Woking Council going LibDem - the odds were great and some people made money listening to me.
I think you’re badly wrong on this. Imho the tories have blown it in Surrey. But time will tell.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Precisely so.
I don’t think so, because I am sure You underestimate how Labour dine out on this current government shambles over time. This is the platinum version of 1974-1979. This is the most infamous and well earned kick out of government ever. Lying. Sleaze. Food costs. Mortgages. Sewage. When I needed a dentist it wasn’t there. Split party, awful PMs. There is so much here that is going to be remembered long into the future and continue to help Labour re-election chances in the General Elections to come. When trust, competence is lost, it’s a long time of hard work to get it back.
After the election of Jeremy Corbyn in 2015, even now in this election 9 years later Labour are struggling with the damage of it, so you should easily imagine how this outgoing government will still be remembered in 10 years time and longer.
+1
A generation. And the longer the likes of CR, WO, MM, Luckyguy etc inside the tory party deny this, the longer they will be out of power.
For a while the Conservatives need to focus on where they went wrong. Not how they hope Labour will.
Yes. The only focus of Conservatives right now and in coming years is not be distracted by the Labour government at all, but fight off sirens singing right wing populism, and drag the Conservative Party back to the centre ground. Conservatives leave government this time completely unelectable, and the idea so many on this blog seem to have, Torys easily and quickly come back to power without a decades hard work but simply on what Labour does, is just utterly daft. It’s not honest thinking and facing up to the problem.
If some of the extrapolation of the current polls is right, the Tories will win something between 75 and 150 seats.
But where are these seats ?
In the Shires.
Plus the usual suspects in the Surrey Hills and places like it.
Which constituencies do you have in mind?
Surrey is turning increasingly LibDem
Dorking. Walton and Weybrige. Waverley. Epsom.Esher that could go Lib Dem. East Surrey. Shy Tory country. Say they will vote one way and do the opposite.
Ah okay, thanks. Most of those aren’t in the Surrey Hills but I get your drift.
It’s a bold call by you. All of those are predicted by Electoral Calculus to go LibDem except Runnymede & Weybridge and East Surrey
I spend a lot of my time in the area, telling people 2 yrs ago to bet on Woking Council going LibDem - the odds were great and some people made money listening to me.
I think you’re badly wrong on this. Imho the tories have blown it in Surrey. But time will tell.
A seperate point.Woking and Croydon council are bust as you know!
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Precisely so.
I don’t think so, because I am sure You underestimate how Labour dine out on this current government shambles over time. This is the platinum version of 1974-1979. This is the most infamous and well earned kick out of government ever. Lying. Sleaze. Food costs. Mortgages. Sewage. When I needed a dentist it wasn’t there. Split party, awful PMs. There is so much here that is going to be remembered long into the future and continue to help Labour re-election chances in the General Elections to come. When trust, competence is lost, it’s a long time of hard work to get it back.
After the election of Jeremy Corbyn in 2015, even now in this election 9 years later Labour are struggling with the damage of it, so you should easily imagine how this outgoing government will still be remembered in 10 years time and longer.
Plus the fact Hunt and Sunak have fixed it that Labour have the UKs highest tax take since Second World War to benefit from, and economic growth is going to happen too in next parliament, lots of money coming in, A Labour tax cutting budget on eve of next election shoots all the Tory foxes doesn’t it?
Also Labour can operate with all the Brexit powers, they have more power and opportunity in next 10 years+ of parliamentary dominance free from EU membership than any government in last 65 years, except this current one that lost its opportunity due to covid, war and internal infighting.
Noteworthy Labour has given up on their "Making Brexit work" rhetoric, while the Tories are completely silent on their one supposed achievement: "get Brexit done".
Hardly anyone thinks Brexit does work. Which is a problem. It will need to be addressed at some point.
That's another slow burn item - spend a few years trying to get things working within the current scheme and then you go into the next election or even the 2033 election with a campaign to rejoin the EU as Brexit doesn't work...
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Precisely so.
I don’t think so, because I am sure You underestimate how Labour dine out on this current government shambles over time. This is the platinum version of 1974-1979. This is the most infamous and well earned kick out of government ever. Lying. Sleaze. Food costs. Mortgages. Sewage. When I needed a dentist it wasn’t there. Split party, awful PMs. There is so much here that is going to be remembered long into the future and continue to help Labour re-election chances in the General Elections to come. When trust, competence is lost, it’s a long time of hard work to get it back.
After the election of Jeremy Corbyn in 2015, even now in this election 9 years later Labour are struggling with the damage of it, so you should easily imagine how this outgoing government will still be remembered in 10 years time and longer.
+1
A generation. And the longer the likes of CR, WO, MM, Luckyguy etc inside the tory party deny this, the longer they will be out of power.
For a while the Conservatives need to focus on where they went wrong. Not how they hope Labour will.
I am focusing on returning a Conservative MP who has proven to be a great constituency MP - and who is one of the Conservatives the Party will need to rally round, listen to and take guidance from in opposing the incoming Labour Government. With people like him in prominence, the Conservatives will again get a hearing. And votes.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Precisely so.
I don’t think so, because I am sure You underestimate how Labour dine out on this current government shambles over time. This is the platinum version of 1974-1979. This is the most infamous and well earned kick out of government ever. Lying. Sleaze. Food costs. Mortgages. Sewage. When I needed a dentist it wasn’t there. Split party, awful PMs. There is so much here that is going to be remembered long into the future and continue to help Labour re-election chances in the General Elections to come. When trust, competence is lost, it’s a long time of hard work to get it back.
After the election of Jeremy Corbyn in 2015, even now in this election 9 years later Labour are struggling with the damage of it, so you should easily imagine how this outgoing government will still be remembered in 10 years time and longer.
+1
A generation. And the longer the likes of CR, WO, MM, Luckyguy etc inside the tory party deny this, the longer they will be out of power.
For a while the Conservatives need to focus on where they went wrong. Not how they hope Labour will.
I am focusing on returning a Conservative MP who has proven to be a great constituency MP - and who is one of the Conservatives the Party will need to rally round, listen to and take guidance from in opposing the incoming Labour Government. With people like him in prominence, the Conservatives will again get a hearing. And votes.
But... the members will still elect the most batshit crazy Tory MP who survives as the next leader.
If some of the extrapolation of the current polls is right, the Tories will win something between 75 and 150 seats.
But where are these seats ?
In the Shires.
Plus the usual suspects in the Surrey Hills and places like it.
Which constituencies do you have in mind?
Surrey is turning increasingly LibDem
Dorking. Walton and Weybrige. Waverley. Epsom.Esher that could go Lib Dem. East Surrey. Shy Tory country. Say they will vote one way and do the opposite.
Ah okay, thanks. Most of those aren’t in the Surrey Hills but I get your drift.
It’s a bold call by you. All of those are predicted by Electoral Calculus to go LibDem except Runnymede & Weybridge and East Surrey
I spend a lot of my time in the area, telling people 2 yrs ago to bet on Woking Council going LibDem - the odds were great and some people made money listening to me.
I think you’re badly wrong on this. Imho he tories have blown it in Surrey. But time will tell.
p.s. Waverley = Farnham & Bordon I believe. That looks like a LibDem gain to me. In which case it would be interesting to see whether the yellow ripple reaches as far as Fareham.
Farnham I agree. Fareham,that could go Lib Dem? I do not have info on that but the Lib Dems stretch out there.Winchester?
If some of the extrapolation of the current polls is right, the Tories will win something between 75 and 150 seats.
But where are these seats ?
In the Shires.
Plus the usual suspects in the Surrey Hills and places like it.
Which constituencies do you have in mind?
Surrey is turning increasingly LibDem
Dorking. Walton and Weybrige. Waverley. Epsom.Esher that could go Lib Dem. East Surrey. Shy Tory country. Say they will vote one way and do the opposite.
Ah okay, thanks. Most of those aren’t in the Surrey Hills but I get your drift.
It’s a bold call by you. All of those are predicted by Electoral Calculus to go LibDem except Runnymede & Weybridge and East Surrey
I spend a lot of my time in the area, telling people 2 yrs ago to bet on Woking Council going LibDem - the odds were great and some people made money listening to me.
I think you’re badly wrong on this. Imho the tories have blown it in Surrey. But time will tell.
A seperate point.Woking and Croydon council are bust as you know!
I do. But it was the Conservatives who bust Woking.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Precisely so.
I don’t think so, because I am sure You underestimate how Labour dine out on this current government shambles over time. This is the platinum version of 1974-1979. This is the most infamous and well earned kick out of government ever. Lying. Sleaze. Food costs. Mortgages. Sewage. When I needed a dentist it wasn’t there. Split party, awful PMs. There is so much here that is going to be remembered long into the future and continue to help Labour re-election chances in the General Elections to come. When trust, competence is lost, it’s a long time of hard work to get it back.
After the election of Jeremy Corbyn in 2015, even now in this election 9 years later Labour are struggling with the damage of it, so you should easily imagine how this outgoing government will still be remembered in 10 years time and longer.
+1
A generation. And the longer the likes of CR, WO, MM, Luckyguy etc inside the tory party deny this, the longer they will be out of power.
For a while the Conservatives need to focus on where they went wrong. Not how they hope Labour will.
I am focusing on returning a Conservative MP who has proven to be a great constituency MP - and who is one of the Conservatives the Party will need to rally round, listen to and take guidance from in opposing the incoming Labour Government. With people like him in prominence, the Conservatives will again get a hearing. And votes.
Thanks MM, a nice correction.
Can you remind me which seat and I’ll keep an eye out.
I’d like to see the tories do okay and with some moderate, sensible, faces.
It shows Labour 429 seats, Conservative 127, Liberal Democrat 48, SNP 19, Plaid Cymru 4, and Reform UK 3, giving an overall Labour majority of 210.
That forecast uses the current default UK-Elect settings, fairly similar to those used for reasonably accurate forecasts in the past, using the actual candidate list and taking some account of by-elections since 2019, incumbency, and tactical voting among other factors. As has been the case with other recent forecasts there are a lot of seats that are marginal, and considerable uncertainty which is the best forecasting algorithms to use. This forecast, in fact, combines various methods, including both proportional and UNS elements. Although the algorithm is targeted at forecasting the overall situation more than individual seats the forecast top three in every constituency can be found here: https://www.ukelect.co.uk/20240623ForecastUK/UKTop3Forecast.csv
If some of the extrapolation of the current polls is right, the Tories will win something between 75 and 150 seats.
But where are these seats ?
In the Shires.
Plus the usual suspects in the Surrey Hills and places like it.
Which constituencies do you have in mind?
Surrey is turning increasingly LibDem
Dorking. Walton and Weybrige. Waverley. Epsom.Esher that could go Lib Dem. East Surrey. Shy Tory country. Say they will vote one way and do the opposite.
As I said I happy to be corrected. After the election we will have definitive answer. It will be revealing to see exactly how these and all the rest around the country voted.
OK here is my list for Surrey:
It will be a disappointing night if the LDs don't win:
Walton and Esher Guildford Godalming and Ash
I believe they will also win:
Dorking and Horley Woking
I believe they can also win (but that would be a joyous night):
Surrey Heath
There are others like:
Epsom and Ewell Farnham and Bordon etc
These can fall, but in all honesty it would require a complete Tory meltdown and the LD vote being higher than it currently is as there isn't enough of a local Labour squeeze message in these I suspect.
A warning to punters - Just to make clear although I am in Guildford I am playing a lowly role this time so don't really have any inside info.
Interesting free to read post on Sam freedman’s substack by John Curtice. It’s another one of those political tribes posts (and you can take a test - I came out as uncategorised) but this one does some mapping too:
If some of the extrapolation of the current polls is right, the Tories will win something between 75 and 150 seats.
But where are these seats ?
In the Shires.
Plus the usual suspects in the Surrey Hills and places like it.
Which constituencies do you have in mind?
Surrey is turning increasingly LibDem
Dorking. Walton and Weybrige. Waverley. Epsom.Esher that could go Lib Dem. East Surrey. Shy Tory country. Say they will vote one way and do the opposite.
Ah okay, thanks. Most of those aren’t in the Surrey Hills but I get your drift.
It’s a bold call by you. All of those are predicted by Electoral Calculus to go LibDem except Runnymede & Weybridge and East Surrey
I spend a lot of my time in the area, telling people 2 yrs ago to bet on Woking Council going LibDem - the odds were great and some people made money listening to me.
I think you’re badly wrong on this. Imho he tories have blown it in Surrey. But time will tell.
p.s. Waverley = Farnham & Bordon I believe. That looks like a LibDem gain to me. In which case it would be interesting to see whether the yellow ripple reaches as far as Fareham.
Farnham I agree. Fareham,that could go Lib Dem? I do not have info on that but the Lib Dems stretch out there.Winchester?
North East Hants is on the Sky News list as a *toss-up* Con hold. Thought it was the safest seat in the country, or biggest majority, or somesuch. But we do have a lib dem council now (in coalition with an ultra-local party that seems to be something of a lib dem front).
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Precisely so.
I don’t think so, because I am sure You underestimate how Labour dine out on this current government shambles over time. This is the platinum version of 1974-1979. This is the most infamous and well earned kick out of government ever. Lying. Sleaze. Food costs. Mortgages. Sewage. When I needed a dentist it wasn’t there. Split party, awful PMs. There is so much here that is going to be remembered long into the future and continue to help Labour re-election chances in the General Elections to come. When trust, competence is lost, it’s a long time of hard work to get it back.
After the election of Jeremy Corbyn in 2015, even now in this election 9 years later Labour are struggling with the damage of it, so you should easily imagine how this outgoing government will still be remembered in 10 years time and longer.
+1
A generation. And the longer the likes of CR, WO, MM, Luckyguy etc inside the tory party deny this, the longer they will be out of power.
For a while the Conservatives need to focus on where they went wrong. Not how they hope Labour will.
I am focusing on returning a Conservative MP who has proven to be a great constituency MP - and who is one of the Conservatives the Party will need to rally round, listen to and take guidance from in opposing the incoming Labour Government. With people like him in prominence, the Conservatives will again get a hearing. And votes.
Thanks MM, a nice correction.
Can you remind me which seat and I’ll keep an eye out.
I’d like to see the tories do okay and with some moderate, sensible, faces.
Anthony Mangnall, South Devon (Totnes as was). Still only mid-30's. One to watch. (If he keeps his seat - if not, he'll get snapped up in a heartbeat in a safer seat, which would be a great shame for his current constituency. His special interest is you might think a very un-Tory one - prevention and prosecuting sexual violence in conflict.)
Angela Carter-Begbie, who is standing in Queen's Park and Maida Vale, has said 'Putin wants peace – it's the West that don't', that 'Ukraine was horrible to the Russians first' and that 'Putin put his people first'.
John Clark, standing in Bangor Aberconwy, described Putin as 'sane and reasonable'. He has also said supporting Ukraine was 'not in Britain's interests' and replied to Lord Cameron's support for Ukraine by saying: 'You are asset-stripping our country to pay for your globalist friends to expand their empire.'
Hamish Haddow, in Chipping Barnet, falsely claimed Boris Johnson 'stopped the Ukraine peace talks on request by [Joe] Biden' and said 'every Ukrainian death [is] firmly on Boris'.
Teresa DeSantis, in Chichester, said Boris was 'acting like Zelensky's rent boy, touting for war' while Jack Aaron in Welwyn Hatfield called Putin's use of force in Ukraine 'legitimate' and likened him to Churchill. Malcolm Cupis, in Melksham and Devizes, compared calls for Ukraine refugees in the UK to be exempt from car registration fees to 'ethnic cleansing'.
Peter Morris in Melton and Syston, claimed the war was about 'the US defence budget' while Jack Brookes, in Birmingham Erdington, claimed Boris 'kept the war going'.
All these Reform candidates should be interned and I am going to have nightmares about Boris Johnson being a rent boy.
Just aping the GOP basically.
Britain Trump is here and up and running.
Yup, do we really want the UK equivalents of Marjorie Taylor Greene in our parliament?
We.ve got Rayner and Cooper, isnt that the same ?
dearly departed Charles never had a crush on Rayner and Cooper
We could do with Charles returning, it would bring a bit of diversity to the site.
An overwhelmingly right wing message board site needs yet another Tory like a hole in the head. We should be encouraging Communists, Welsh Nationalists and Irish Republicans
Dont be silly PB veers left atm, the tone of the board tends to attract people who oppose the government of the day, The more the government fails the less likely it finds people prepared to spend time defending it so they drift off.
Assuming Starmer wins this time next year the board will be drifting rightwards as Starmer racks up failure after fialure.
PB Tories have already transitioned from blaming Starmer for the last half decade of government, to critiquing the blunders he hasn’t yet made.
If he actually succeeds at anything, I fear for their mental composure.
Take it from a serial political loser - no matter how much you think you are prepared for defeat it always hits so much harder when it actually happens.
If Johnny Mercer loses in Plymouth, his concession speech is going to be for the ages.
I really hadn’t realised quite what a narcissist he is until recent events. Agree it may be a good one,
Off all the Torys, that is the one I would like to see defeated most, closely followed by Rees Mogg, there is something about Mercer, smug, cocky, he deserves to go, I hope the good people of Plymouth do their job, whereas I have no real wish to see Sunak lose his seat, I feel he was dealt a poor hand, and the blame lies squarely at the door of Truss and Johnson, if as anticipated they get trounced at the election
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
It's not impossible, but the wisdom of the last five years has been Labour can't overturn a Tory majority of 80 in one sitting. Funny how the Tories now can do just that.
The other thing, assuming a Labour Government is elected, is expectations are so low Labour don't have to get too much right to exceed them.
This narrative is very similar to that we heard from dejected Conservatives in 1997. And yet just five years ago it was all "is Boris is four term Prime Minister?"
To be clear, I'm not saying the Tories would be the ones to do it. If it happens it will be a pincer movement: Lib Dems in the south, a populist right party in Old Labour heartlands and the Greens in metropolitan seats.
If some of the extrapolation of the current polls is right, the Tories will win something between 75 and 150 seats.
But where are these seats ?
In the Shires.
Plus the usual suspects in the Surrey Hills and places like it.
Which constituencies do you have in mind?
Surrey is turning increasingly LibDem
Dorking. Walton and Weybrige. Waverley. Epsom.Esher that could go Lib Dem. East Surrey. Shy Tory country. Say they will vote one way and do the opposite.
As I said I happy to be corrected. After the election we will have definitive answer. It will be revealing to see exactly how these and all the rest around the country voted.
OK here is my list for Surrey:
It will be a disappointing night if the LDs don't win:
Walton and Esher Guildford Godalming and Ash
I believe they will also win:
Dorking and Horley Woking
I believe they can also win (but that would be a joyous night):
Surrey Heath
There are others like:
Epsom and Ewell Farnham and Bordon etc
These can fall, but in all honesty it would require a complete Tory meltdown and the LD vote being higher than it currently is as there isn't enough of a local Labour squeeze message in these I suspect.
A warning to punters - Just to make clear although I am in Guildford I am playing a lowly role this time so don't really have any inside info.
Agree with you all of those although I do think Surrey Heath will go LibDem.
One of the MRPs had Woking as toss up but I think that’s wide of the mark: very solid LibDem gain this time.
If some of the extrapolation of the current polls is right, the Tories will win something between 75 and 150 seats.
But where are these seats ?
In the Shires.
Plus the usual suspects in the Surrey Hills and places like it.
Which constituencies do you have in mind?
Surrey is turning increasingly LibDem
Dorking. Walton and Weybrige. Waverley. Epsom.Esher that could go Lib Dem. East Surrey. Shy Tory country. Say they will vote one way and do the opposite.
As I said I happy to be corrected. After the election we will have definitive answer. It will be revealing to see exactly how these and all the rest around the country voted.
OK here is my list for Surrey:
It will be a disappointing night if the LDs don't win:
Walton and Esher Guildford Godalming and Ash
I believe they will also win:
Dorking and Horley Woking
I believe they can also win (but that would be a joyous night):
Surrey Heath
There are others like:
Epsom and Ewell Farnham and Bordon etc
These can fall, but in all honesty it would require a complete Tory meltdown and the LD vote being higher than it currently is as there isn't enough of a local Labour squeeze message in these I suspect.
A warning to punters - Just to make clear although I am in Guildford I am playing a lowly role this time so don't really have any inside info.
Godalming I agree. Guildord yes! farnham yes again.Epsom. I can see that staying Tory but as you say we will see! Horley Yes. Dorking i think not. I am sure you will be in touch with me after the election! Walton and Esher I believe not!
Anywhere with pleasant countryside will vote Tory unless the Lib Dems overturn them.This will be the case in the South and South West of England. Parts of Shropshire, North Yorkshire, Rural Debyshire,the Tories still have friends in the North and Lincolnshire I believe. Even some rural parts of the rural Midlands.If I am wrong I am happy to be corrected now and after the election.
I live a few hundred yards east of Ashford’s boundary with the new Weald of Kent Constituency and about half a mile south of its boundary with Canterbury. Here in the Ashford bit of the Kent Downs National Landscape (fomerly known as Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty) we are down on most prognostications as leaning Lab for the first time in history. This is slightly evidenced by Damian Green’s failed chicken run to Weald of Kent and his subsequent meek return to Ashford - something Labour is making a big deal of locally.
Biden has another four months of an improving economy before people go to vote.
It's the economy, stupid.
That would be the expectation, but there are certainly a few warnings about a real October Surprise, maybe Lebanon/Hezbollah, or maybe North Korea, to create a crisis that GOP-MAGA will blame on Biden.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Precisely so.
I don’t think so, because I am sure You underestimate how Labour dine out on this current government shambles over time. This is the platinum version of 1974-1979. This is the most infamous and well earned kick out of government ever. Lying. Sleaze. Food costs. Mortgages. Sewage. When I needed a dentist it wasn’t there. Split party, awful PMs. There is so much here that is going to be remembered long into the future and continue to help Labour re-election chances in the General Elections to come. When trust, competence is lost, it’s a long time of hard work to get it back.
After the election of Jeremy Corbyn in 2015, even now in this election 9 years later Labour are struggling with the damage of it, so you should easily imagine how this outgoing government will still be remembered in 10 years time and longer.
+1
A generation. And the longer the likes of CR, WO, MM, Luckyguy etc inside the tory party deny this, the longer they will be out of power.
For a while the Conservatives need to focus on where they went wrong. Not how they hope Labour will.
I am focusing on returning a Conservative MP who has proven to be a great constituency MP - and who is one of the Conservatives the Party will need to rally round, listen to and take guidance from in opposing the incoming Labour Government. With people like him in prominence, the Conservatives will again get a hearing. And votes.
But... the members will still elect the most batshit crazy Tory MP who survives as the next leader.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Precisely so.
I don’t think so, because I am sure You underestimate how Labour dine out on this current government shambles over time. This is the platinum version of 1974-1979. This is the most infamous and well earned kick out of government ever. Lying. Sleaze. Food costs. Mortgages. Sewage. When I needed a dentist it wasn’t there. Split party, awful PMs. There is so much here that is going to be remembered long into the future and continue to help Labour re-election chances in the General Elections to come. When trust, competence is lost, it’s a long time of hard work to get it back.
After the election of Jeremy Corbyn in 2015, even now in this election 9 years later Labour are struggling with the damage of it, so you should easily imagine how this outgoing government will still be remembered in 10 years time and longer.
Plus the fact Hunt and Sunak have fixed it that Labour have the UKs highest tax take since Second World War to benefit from, and economic growth is going to happen too in next parliament, lots of money coming in, A Labour tax cutting budget on eve of next election shoots all the Tory foxes doesn’t it?
Also Labour can operate with all the Brexit powers, they have more power and opportunity in next 10 years+ of parliamentary dominance free from EU membership than any government in last 65 years, except this current one that lost its opportunity due to covid, war and internal infighting.
Noteworthy Labour has given up on their "Making Brexit work" rhetoric, while the Tories are completely silent on their one supposed achievement: "get Brexit done".
Hardly anyone thinks Brexit does work. Which is a problem. It will need to be addressed at some point.
You are thinking in an “over all” way, overall Brexit is not good. It certainly makes us economically poorer is the argument that seems to be winning.
Yet, imagine if we were still in it. Would that cause more or less issues for Labour in the next ten years?
Its not that sovereignty and control was taken back and given to the British people - only to the extent they elect a government as normal they actually enjoy any of it - an awful lot of power and control came back from EU treaties and courts to the cabinet table at number 10, straight into the hands of the coterie around the British PM. In that narrow way, it’s a clear Brexit dividend for the incoming Labour government. Power and control and freedom former PMs and administrations could only dream about. Tory Brexit has empowered Starmer’s government with this.
Angela Carter-Begbie, who is standing in Queen's Park and Maida Vale, has said 'Putin wants peace – it's the West that don't', that 'Ukraine was horrible to the Russians first' and that 'Putin put his people first'.
John Clark, standing in Bangor Aberconwy, described Putin as 'sane and reasonable'. He has also said supporting Ukraine was 'not in Britain's interests' and replied to Lord Cameron's support for Ukraine by saying: 'You are asset-stripping our country to pay for your globalist friends to expand their empire.'
Hamish Haddow, in Chipping Barnet, falsely claimed Boris Johnson 'stopped the Ukraine peace talks on request by [Joe] Biden' and said 'every Ukrainian death [is] firmly on Boris'.
Teresa DeSantis, in Chichester, said Boris was 'acting like Zelensky's rent boy, touting for war' while Jack Aaron in Welwyn Hatfield called Putin's use of force in Ukraine 'legitimate' and likened him to Churchill. Malcolm Cupis, in Melksham and Devizes, compared calls for Ukraine refugees in the UK to be exempt from car registration fees to 'ethnic cleansing'.
Peter Morris in Melton and Syston, claimed the war was about 'the US defence budget' while Jack Brookes, in Birmingham Erdington, claimed Boris 'kept the war going'.
All these Reform candidates should be interned and I am going to have nightmares about Boris Johnson being a rent boy.
Just aping the GOP basically.
Britain Trump is here and up and running.
Yup, do we really want the UK equivalents of Marjorie Taylor Greene in our parliament?
We.ve got Rayner and Cooper, isnt that the same ?
dearly departed Charles never had a crush on Rayner and Cooper
We could do with Charles returning, it would bring a bit of diversity to the site.
An overwhelmingly right wing message board site needs yet another Tory like a hole in the head. We should be encouraging Communists, Welsh Nationalists and Irish Republicans
Dont be silly PB veers left atm, the tone of the board tends to attract people who oppose the government of the day, The more the government fails the less likely it finds people prepared to spend time defending it so they drift off.
Assuming Starmer wins this time next year the board will be drifting rightwards as Starmer racks up failure after fialure.
PB Tories have already transitioned from blaming Starmer for the last half decade of government, to critiquing the blunders he hasn’t yet made.
If he actually succeeds at anything, I fear for their mental composure.
Take it from a serial political loser - no matter how much you think you are prepared for defeat it always hits so much harder when it actually happens.
If Johnny Mercer loses in Plymouth, his concession speech is going to be for the ages.
I really hadn’t realised quite what a narcissist he is until recent events. Agree it may be a good one,
Off all the Torys, that is the one I would like to see defeated most, closely followed by Rees Mogg, there is something about Mercer, smug, cocky, he deserves to go, I hope the good people of Plymouth do their job, whereas I have no real wish to see Sunak lose his seat, I feel he was dealt a poor hand, and the blame lies squarely at the door of Truss and Johnson, if as anticipated they get trounced at the election
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Precisely so.
I don’t think so, because I am sure You underestimate how Labour dine out on this current government shambles over time. This is the platinum version of 1974-1979. This is the most infamous and well earned kick out of government ever. Lying. Sleaze. Food costs. Mortgages. Sewage. When I needed a dentist it wasn’t there. Split party, awful PMs. There is so much here that is going to be remembered long into the future and continue to help Labour re-election chances in the General Elections to come. When trust, competence is lost, it’s a long time of hard work to get it back.
After the election of Jeremy Corbyn in 2015, even now in this election 9 years later Labour are struggling with the damage of it, so you should easily imagine how this outgoing government will still be remembered in 10 years time and longer.
+1
A generation. And the longer the likes of CR, WO, MM, Luckyguy etc inside the tory party deny this, the longer they will be out of power.
For a while the Conservatives need to focus on where they went wrong. Not how they hope Labour will.
I am focusing on returning a Conservative MP who has proven to be a great constituency MP - and who is one of the Conservatives the Party will need to rally round, listen to and take guidance from in opposing the incoming Labour Government. With people like him in prominence, the Conservatives will again get a hearing. And votes.
But... the members will still elect the most batshit crazy Tory MP who survives as the next leader.
They really won't...
Would you accept it will be an MP more batshit than any previous Conservative PM pre Boris?
Biden has another four months of an improving economy before people go to vote.
It's the economy, stupid.
That would be the expectation, but there are certainly a few warnings about a real October Surprise, maybe Lebanon/Hezbollah, or maybe North Korea, to create a crisis that GOP-MAGA will blame on Biden.
Or he can use a Crisis to his advantage as Maggie did with the Falklands.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Precisely so.
I don’t think so, because I am sure You underestimate how Labour dine out on this current government shambles over time. This is the platinum version of 1974-1979. This is the most infamous and well earned kick out of government ever. Lying. Sleaze. Food costs. Mortgages. Sewage. When I needed a dentist it wasn’t there. Split party, awful PMs. There is so much here that is going to be remembered long into the future and continue to help Labour re-election chances in the General Elections to come. When trust, competence is lost, it’s a long time of hard work to get it back.
After the election of Jeremy Corbyn in 2015, even now in this election 9 years later Labour are struggling with the damage of it, so you should easily imagine how this outgoing government will still be remembered in 10 years time and longer.
+1
A generation. And the longer the likes of CR, WO, MM, Luckyguy etc inside the tory party deny this, the longer they will be out of power.
For a while the Conservatives need to focus on where they went wrong. Not how they hope Labour will.
I am focusing on returning a Conservative MP who has proven to be a great constituency MP - and who is one of the Conservatives the Party will need to rally round, listen to and take guidance from in opposing the incoming Labour Government. With people like him in prominence, the Conservatives will again get a hearing. And votes.
But... the members will still elect the most batshit crazy Tory MP who survives as the next leader.
They really won't...
Would you accept it will be an MP more batshit than any previous Conservative PM pre Boris?
Biden has another four months of an improving economy before people go to vote.
It's the economy, stupid.
If you are right, why isn’t it working so far? Why isn’t he with the advantage in the college rather than having to fight back from behind after just 4 years, to prove he is worthy and got what it takes?
Anywhere with pleasant countryside will vote Tory unless the Lib Dems overturn them.This will be the case in the South and South West of England. Parts of Shropshire, North Yorkshire, Rural Debyshire,the Tories still have friends in the North and Lincolnshire I believe. Even some rural parts of the rural Midlands.If I am wrong I am happy to be corrected now and after the election.
I live a few hundred yards east of Ashford’s boundary with the new Weald of Kent Constituency and about half a mile south of its boundary with Canterbury. Here in the Ashford bit of the Kent Downs National Landscape (fomerly known as Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty) we are down on most prognostications as leaning Lab for the first time in history. This is slightly evidenced by Damian Green’s failed chicken run to Weald of Kent and his subsequent meek return to Ashford - something Labour is making a big deal of locally.
That’ll be all those vineyards springing up.
Yes. That’s getting increasingly noticeable on the east facing slopes of the Downs next to the A28 from Ashford up to Canterbury. New one just started just round the corner from us.
The last dozen polls average Labour 40%, Con 19.6%, Reform 17.5%, Lib Dem 11.2%, Green 6.3%. The Conservatives are now working very hard to drive their vote into the mid teens.
My sixth sense is that the betting scandal could be terminal for them.
DDayGate followed by BettingGate 10 days later - there's just enough time for another one to pop up.
I like DDayGate but maybe GambleGate has more of a ring?
Aren't we due a Downfall?
We need an MP to get caught sheepshagging, so that we can have a Ramsgate.
Very good PtP!
In retrospect the Expenses scandal should have been called Billingsgate.
I wonder what could contrive to lead to Whip-Ma-Whop-Ma-Gate?
If some of the extrapolation of the current polls is right, the Tories will win something between 75 and 150 seats.
But where are these seats ?
In the Shires.
Plus the usual suspects in the Surrey Hills and places like it.
Which constituencies do you have in mind?
Surrey is turning increasingly LibDem
Dorking. Walton and Weybrige. Waverley. Epsom.Esher that could go Lib Dem. East Surrey. Shy Tory country. Say they will vote one way and do the opposite.
As I said I happy to be corrected. After the election we will have definitive answer. It will be revealing to see exactly how these and all the rest around the country voted.
OK here is my list for Surrey:
It will be a disappointing night if the LDs don't win:
Walton and Esher Guildford Godalming and Ash
I believe they will also win:
Dorking and Horley Woking
I believe they can also win (but that would be a joyous night):
Surrey Heath
There are others like:
Epsom and Ewell Farnham and Bordon etc
These can fall, but in all honesty it would require a complete Tory meltdown and the LD vote being higher than it currently is as there isn't enough of a local Labour squeeze message in these I suspect.
A warning to punters - Just to make clear although I am in Guildford I am playing a lowly role this time so don't really have any inside info.
Godalming I agree. Guildord yes! farnham yes again.Epsom. I can see that staying Tory but as you say we will see! Horley Yes. Dorking i think not. I am sure you will be in touch with me after the election! Walton and Esher I believe not!
Walton and Esher is the number 1 target
They can't win Horley and not Dorking it is the same constituency It is Dorking and Horley. It isn't one or the other.
I wasn't predicting Farnham and Bordon, other than an outside shot. It is not one of the key targets. When SW Surrey was split (which was a target) the best bit became Godalming and Ash (Ash came from Surrey Heath).
PB Brains Trust: I am trying to calculate, from first principles, a mortgage with a variable interest rate. Using the annuity formula I can get a monthly payment close to what the banks quote, but not exactly. I assume this is because the interest compounds daily, rather than monthly. Does anyone know how I can fix this so it matches the banks calculations?
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Precisely so.
I don’t think so, because I am sure You underestimate how Labour dine out on this current government shambles over time. This is the platinum version of 1974-1979. This is the most infamous and well earned kick out of government ever. Lying. Sleaze. Food costs. Mortgages. Sewage. When I needed a dentist it wasn’t there. Split party, awful PMs. There is so much here that is going to be remembered long into the future and continue to help Labour re-election chances in the General Elections to come. When trust, competence is lost, it’s a long time of hard work to get it back.
After the election of Jeremy Corbyn in 2015, even now in this election 9 years later Labour are struggling with the damage of it, so you should easily imagine how this outgoing government will still be remembered in 10 years time and longer.
+1
A generation. And the longer the likes of CR, WO, MM, Luckyguy etc inside the tory party deny this, the longer they will be out of power.
For a while the Conservatives need to focus on where they went wrong. Not how they hope Labour will.
I am focusing on returning a Conservative MP who has proven to be a great constituency MP - and who is one of the Conservatives the Party will need to rally round, listen to and take guidance from in opposing the incoming Labour Government. With people like him in prominence, the Conservatives will again get a hearing. And votes.
But... the members will still elect the most batshit crazy Tory MP who survives as the next leader.
They really won't...
Watch out for Claire Coutinho.
Badenoch and Braverman - both more likely to survive and either more likely to win the leadership election.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Precisely so.
I don’t think so, because I am sure You underestimate how Labour dine out on this current government shambles over time. This is the platinum version of 1974-1979. This is the most infamous and well earned kick out of government ever. Lying. Sleaze. Food costs. Mortgages. Sewage. When I needed a dentist it wasn’t there. Split party, awful PMs. There is so much here that is going to be remembered long into the future and continue to help Labour re-election chances in the General Elections to come. When trust, competence is lost, it’s a long time of hard work to get it back.
After the election of Jeremy Corbyn in 2015, even now in this election 9 years later Labour are struggling with the damage of it, so you should easily imagine how this outgoing government will still be remembered in 10 years time and longer.
+1
A generation. And the longer the likes of CR, WO, MM, Luckyguy etc inside the tory party deny this, the longer they will be out of power.
For a while the Conservatives need to focus on where they went wrong. Not how they hope Labour will.
I am focusing on returning a Conservative MP who has proven to be a great constituency MP - and who is one of the Conservatives the Party will need to rally round, listen to and take guidance from in opposing the incoming Labour Government. With people like him in prominence, the Conservatives will again get a hearing. And votes.
But... the members will still elect the most batshit crazy Tory MP who survives as the next leader.
They really won't...
Watch out for Claire Coutinho.
Badenoch and Braverman - both more likely to survive and either more likely to win the leadership election.
If you are even thinking about punting on this market, wait and see who is left standing on July 5th.
You see that Tiverton and Honiton byelection? I don't a swing anywhere near as big as that. Or to win as many votes. And people do win from 3rd. Or even 4th. Like the SNP did in various seats in 2015...
It shows Labour 429 seats, Conservative 127, Liberal Democrat 48, SNP 19, Plaid Cymru 4, and Reform UK 3, giving an overall Labour majority of 210.
That forecast uses the current default UK-Elect settings, fairly similar to those used for reasonably accurate forecasts in the past, using the actual candidate list and taking some account of by-elections since 2019, incumbency, and tactical voting among other factors. As has been the case with other recent forecasts there are a lot of seats that are marginal, and considerable uncertainty which is the best forecasting algorithms to use. This forecast, in fact, combines various methods, including both proportional and UNS elements. Although the algorithm is targeted at forecasting the overall situation more than individual seats the forecast top three in every constituency can be found here: https://www.ukelect.co.uk/20240623ForecastUK/UKTop3Forecast.csv
@Heathener This forecast has Newton Abbott Staying blue too.
Biden has another four months of an improving economy before people go to vote.
It's the economy, stupid.
If you are right, why isn’t it working so far? Why isn’t he with the advantage in the college rather than having to fight back from behind after just 4 years, to prove he is worthy and got what it takes?
This election is far from won for Trump. He has ample time to screw it up. He is not even that far ahead irrespective of their electoral college system. He needs to be more ahead than he is as the polls are not always correct. Only 52% percent of the that country voted in the Trump Biden election.
If some of the extrapolation of the current polls is right, the Tories will win something between 75 and 150 seats.
But where are these seats ?
In the Shires.
Plus the usual suspects in the Surrey Hills and places like it.
Which constituencies do you have in mind?
Surrey is turning increasingly LibDem
Dorking. Walton and Weybrige. Waverley. Epsom.Esher that could go Lib Dem. East Surrey. Shy Tory country. Say they will vote one way and do the opposite.
As I said I happy to be corrected. After the election we will have definitive answer. It will be revealing to see exactly how these and all the rest around the country voted.
OK here is my list for Surrey:
It will be a disappointing night if the LDs don't win:
Walton and Esher Guildford Godalming and Ash
I believe they will also win:
Dorking and Horley Woking
I believe they can also win (but that would be a joyous night):
Surrey Heath
There are others like:
Epsom and Ewell Farnham and Bordon etc
These can fall, but in all honesty it would require a complete Tory meltdown and the LD vote being higher than it currently is as there isn't enough of a local Labour squeeze message in these I suspect.
A warning to punters - Just to make clear although I am in Guildford I am playing a lowly role this time so don't really have any inside info.
Godalming I agree. Guildord yes! farnham yes again.Epsom. I can see that staying Tory but as you say we will see! Horley Yes. Dorking i think not. I am sure you will be in touch with me after the election! Walton and Esher I believe not!
Walton and Esher is the number 1 target
They can't win Horley and not Dorking it is the same constituency It is Dorking and Horley. It isn't one or the other.
I wasn't predicting Farnham and Bordon, other than an outside shot. It is not one of the key targets. When SW Surrey was split (which was a target) the best bit became Godalming and Ash (Ash came from Surrey Heath).
Godalming and Ash is a strange constituency. Ash is basically a suburb of Aldershot while Godalming is a leafy Surrey town. They really have nothing in common. Farnham and Bordon likewise.
If some of the extrapolation of the current polls is right, the Tories will win something between 75 and 150 seats.
But where are these seats ?
In the Shires.
Plus the usual suspects in the Surrey Hills and places like it.
Which constituencies do you have in mind?
Surrey is turning increasingly LibDem
Dorking. Walton and Weybrige. Waverley. Epsom.Esher that could go Lib Dem. East Surrey. Shy Tory country. Say they will vote one way and do the opposite.
As I said I happy to be corrected. After the election we will have definitive answer. It will be revealing to see exactly how these and all the rest around the country voted.
OK here is my list for Surrey:
It will be a disappointing night if the LDs don't win:
Walton and Esher Guildford Godalming and Ash
I believe they will also win:
Dorking and Horley Woking
I believe they can also win (but that would be a joyous night):
Surrey Heath
There are others like:
Epsom and Ewell Farnham and Bordon etc
These can fall, but in all honesty it would require a complete Tory meltdown and the LD vote being higher than it currently is as there isn't enough of a local Labour squeeze message in these I suspect.
A warning to punters - Just to make clear although I am in Guildford I am playing a lowly role this time so don't really have any inside info.
Godalming I agree. Guildord yes! farnham yes again.Epsom. I can see that staying Tory but as you say we will see! Horley Yes. Dorking i think not. I am sure you will be in touch with me after the election! Walton and Esher I believe not!
Walton and Esher is the number 1 target
They can't win Horley and not Dorking it is the same constituency It is Dorking and Horley. It isn't one or the other.
I wasn't predicting Farnham and Bordon, other than an outside shot. It is not one of the key targets. When SW Surrey was split (which was a target) the best bit became Godalming and Ash (Ash came from Surrey Heath).
Godalming and Ash is a strange constituency. Ash is basically a suburb of Aldershot while Godalming is a leafy Surrey town. They really have nothing in common. Farnham and Bordon likewise.
Starmer’s growth plan ‘doomed’ without access to EU markets, warn economists Labour leader told if elected he will have to rejoin the customs union to meet party’s manifesto pledges, while 56% of voters say Brexit was bad for economy
That is why the eu is not mentioned in the manifesto one way or the other. I don't know how else to interpretation the situation.
If he needs to rejoin the Customs Union then he us truly screwed. That is an absolute no-no without full EU membership
Full EU-membership means the Euro. No way a UK crawling back to Brussels avoids that.
Oh, and a provision that you can only use Article 50 once. And we've already played our joker on that.
Try implementing that package without a referendum...
It’s not happening anytime soon and there’s zip chance of the UK rejoining unless there was an overwhelming majority to do so . I think it’s more likely the UK would enter a more EEA type scenario which completely rules out the Euro .
Which in the context of the original post does rulebook Customs Union membership. But would give us Single Market access.
Sorry rule out not rulebook. Bloody predictive text.
The UK could be in “a customs union” with the EU, as are San Marino and Andorra (and indeed Turkey). It wouldn’t be in “the EU customs union” but the impact on goods imports and exports is the same. Single market participation is needed as well though for properly seamless trade and its SM that also brings free movement and regulatory alignment (hence why there are queues at the CU but not SM Turkish border).
In fact a couple of micro states are actually CU participants, Monaco for example, but they don’t have independent trade policies.
But @Richard_Tyndall is right. If we are going to do that then better to Rejoin properly.
It would of course be better to join properly, but if we’re in the business of taking steps to improve trade without going near the toxic topic that is EU membership (for now) then customs union is a feasible step.
I agree, that's why the salami approach to Brexit is the best approach. Thin slices until nothing is left.
I hope that’ll be the case. I saw a tweet the other day, think it was big bad Ali Campbell, saying IIRC 80-odd per cent of the under 30s want to Rejoin. There’s an article on the Guardian front page at the mo: ‘Starmer’s growth plan ‘doomed’ without access to EU markets, warn economists’ saying, amongst other things, ‘56% of voters now believe Brexit has been bad for the UK economy as a whole, compared with just 12% who believe it has been economically beneficial.
There’s also a quote in there (from a senior EU diplomat so you Leavers can airily dismiss it out of hand): ‘“We used to be a far more effective trading nation than we are now. The cause of that is Brexit. There is no getting away from that.”’
Brexit is irreparably damaged, holed below the waterline. Business hates it. A majority of the under 60s hate it. It is tarnished by the corruption divisiveness and malevolence of the outgoing government. The fevered promises of the Leave campaigns haven’t materialised.
While the Boomers are still about in sufficient numbers we will have to tip toe back to the EU. But as the inevitable happens reality, the demands of business and of those too young to vote in the referendum and those who voted to Remain will become too big to ignore. Boomer concerns will fade away, like keeping the pound in the age of Apple Pay. There aren’t enough sovereigntists wibbling about unelected EU bureaucrats to outweigh that - perhaps the full horror for them is if it becomes the settled view in the country that things were better, with better outcomes for more people, when we were in the EU. I don’t think we’re a million miles from that. The argument ‘yeah it’s shit, but it’s our shit’ isn’t particularly persuasive, is it?
Particularly interesting was Nigel Farage in his interview with Nick Robinson where he conceded that Brexit had been a complete failure 'but it was all the Tories fault'. I'm sure if it wasn't that his Russian flight of fancy wasn't more newsworthy it would have received plenty of attention.
When the architect of the scheme describes it as a pile of pants but blames the builders and the builders aren't there because they've gone into liquidation it's surely time to rejoin without further ado
It shows Labour 429 seats, Conservative 127, Liberal Democrat 48, SNP 19, Plaid Cymru 4, and Reform UK 3, giving an overall Labour majority of 210.
That forecast uses the current default UK-Elect settings, fairly similar to those used for reasonably accurate forecasts in the past, using the actual candidate list and taking some account of by-elections since 2019, incumbency, and tactical voting among other factors. As has been the case with other recent forecasts there are a lot of seats that are marginal, and considerable uncertainty which is the best forecasting algorithms to use. This forecast, in fact, combines various methods, including both proportional and UNS elements. Although the algorithm is targeted at forecasting the overall situation more than individual seats the forecast top three in every constituency can be found here: https://www.ukelect.co.uk/20240623ForecastUK/UKTop3Forecast.csv
@Heathener This forecast has Newton Abbott Staying blue too.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Precisely so.
I don’t think so, because I am sure You underestimate how Labour dine out on this current government shambles over time. This is the platinum version of 1974-1979. This is the most infamous and well earned kick out of government ever. Lying. Sleaze. Food costs. Mortgages. Sewage. When I needed a dentist it wasn’t there. Split party, awful PMs. There is so much here that is going to be remembered long into the future and continue to help Labour re-election chances in the General Elections to come. When trust, competence is lost, it’s a long time of hard work to get it back.
After the election of Jeremy Corbyn in 2015, even now in this election 9 years later Labour are struggling with the damage of it, so you should easily imagine how this outgoing government will still be remembered in 10 years time and longer.
+1
A generation. And the longer the likes of CR, WO, MM, Luckyguy etc inside the tory party deny this, the longer they will be out of power.
For a while the Conservatives need to focus on where they went wrong. Not how they hope Labour will.
I am focusing on returning a Conservative MP who has proven to be a great constituency MP - and who is one of the Conservatives the Party will need to rally round, listen to and take guidance from in opposing the incoming Labour Government. With people like him in prominence, the Conservatives will again get a hearing. And votes.
But... the members will still elect the most batshit crazy Tory MP who survives as the next leader.
They really won't...
Would you accept it will be an MP more batshit than any previous Conservative PM pre Boris?
No. As I say, watch Claire Coutinho.
The Conservatives could do a lot worse. But two massive negatives.
One is her association with Sunak.
The other is that, as a pragmatist, I suspect she will be cool on making a generous offer to the Faragists. And, appalling as Nigel is, he's going to be awfully attractive to a desperate Conservative Party.
Unfortunately for Claire Coutinho, her political career is likely to peak while her party is in the wilderness.
Angela Carter-Begbie, who is standing in Queen's Park and Maida Vale, has said 'Putin wants peace – it's the West that don't', that 'Ukraine was horrible to the Russians first' and that 'Putin put his people first'.
John Clark, standing in Bangor Aberconwy, described Putin as 'sane and reasonable'. He has also said supporting Ukraine was 'not in Britain's interests' and replied to Lord Cameron's support for Ukraine by saying: 'You are asset-stripping our country to pay for your globalist friends to expand their empire.'
Hamish Haddow, in Chipping Barnet, falsely claimed Boris Johnson 'stopped the Ukraine peace talks on request by [Joe] Biden' and said 'every Ukrainian death [is] firmly on Boris'.
Teresa DeSantis, in Chichester, said Boris was 'acting like Zelensky's rent boy, touting for war' while Jack Aaron in Welwyn Hatfield called Putin's use of force in Ukraine 'legitimate' and likened him to Churchill. Malcolm Cupis, in Melksham and Devizes, compared calls for Ukraine refugees in the UK to be exempt from car registration fees to 'ethnic cleansing'.
Peter Morris in Melton and Syston, claimed the war was about 'the US defence budget' while Jack Brookes, in Birmingham Erdington, claimed Boris 'kept the war going'.
All these Reform candidates should be interned and I am going to have nightmares about Boris Johnson being a rent boy.
Just aping the GOP basically.
Britain Trump is here and up and running.
Yup, do we really want the UK equivalents of Marjorie Taylor Greene in our parliament?
We.ve got Rayner and Cooper, isnt that the same ?
dearly departed Charles never had a crush on Rayner and Cooper
We could do with Charles returning, it would bring a bit of diversity to the site.
An overwhelmingly right wing message board site needs yet another Tory like a hole in the head. We should be encouraging Communists, Welsh Nationalists and Irish Republicans
Dont be silly PB veers left atm, the tone of the board tends to attract people who oppose the government of the day, The more the government fails the less likely it finds people prepared to spend time defending it so they drift off.
Assuming Starmer wins this time next year the board will be drifting rightwards as Starmer racks up failure after fialure.
PB Tories have already transitioned from blaming Starmer for the last half decade of government, to critiquing the blunders he hasn’t yet made.
If he actually succeeds at anything, I fear for their mental composure.
Take it from a serial political loser - no matter how much you think you are prepared for defeat it always hits so much harder when it actually happens.
If Johnny Mercer loses in Plymouth, his concession speech is going to be for the ages.
Edwina C on R4 this morning said Major wasn't prepared to lose in '97.
Biden has another four months of an improving economy before people go to vote.
It's the economy, stupid.
That would be the expectation, but there are certainly a few warnings about a real October Surprise, maybe Lebanon/Hezbollah, or maybe North Korea, to create a crisis that GOP-MAGA will blame on Biden.
Or he can use a Crisis to his advantage as Maggie did with the Falklands.
real benefits of hindsight, launching OP CORPORATE was perhaps the biggest gamble in UK FP since 1945 - she used the success (victory) to her advantage not the crisis
Angela Carter-Begbie, who is standing in Queen's Park and Maida Vale, has said 'Putin wants peace – it's the West that don't', that 'Ukraine was horrible to the Russians first' and that 'Putin put his people first'.
John Clark, standing in Bangor Aberconwy, described Putin as 'sane and reasonable'. He has also said supporting Ukraine was 'not in Britain's interests' and replied to Lord Cameron's support for Ukraine by saying: 'You are asset-stripping our country to pay for your globalist friends to expand their empire.'
Hamish Haddow, in Chipping Barnet, falsely claimed Boris Johnson 'stopped the Ukraine peace talks on request by [Joe] Biden' and said 'every Ukrainian death [is] firmly on Boris'.
Teresa DeSantis, in Chichester, said Boris was 'acting like Zelensky's rent boy, touting for war' while Jack Aaron in Welwyn Hatfield called Putin's use of force in Ukraine 'legitimate' and likened him to Churchill. Malcolm Cupis, in Melksham and Devizes, compared calls for Ukraine refugees in the UK to be exempt from car registration fees to 'ethnic cleansing'.
Peter Morris in Melton and Syston, claimed the war was about 'the US defence budget' while Jack Brookes, in Birmingham Erdington, claimed Boris 'kept the war going'.
All these Reform candidates should be interned and I am going to have nightmares about Boris Johnson being a rent boy.
Just aping the GOP basically.
Britain Trump is here and up and running.
Yup, do we really want the UK equivalents of Marjorie Taylor Greene in our parliament?
We.ve got Rayner and Cooper, isnt that the same ?
dearly departed Charles never had a crush on Rayner and Cooper
We could do with Charles returning, it would bring a bit of diversity to the site.
An overwhelmingly right wing message board site needs yet another Tory like a hole in the head. We should be encouraging Communists, Welsh Nationalists and Irish Republicans
Dont be silly PB veers left atm, the tone of the board tends to attract people who oppose the government of the day, The more the government fails the less likely it finds people prepared to spend time defending it so they drift off.
Assuming Starmer wins this time next year the board will be drifting rightwards as Starmer racks up failure after fialure.
PB Tories have already transitioned from blaming Starmer for the last half decade of government, to critiquing the blunders he hasn’t yet made.
If he actually succeeds at anything, I fear for their mental composure.
Take it from a serial political loser - no matter how much you think you are prepared for defeat it always hits so much harder when it actually happens.
If Johnny Mercer loses in Plymouth, his concession speech is going to be for the ages.
Edwina C on R4 this morning said Major wasn't prepared to lose in '97.
George Osborne said the complete opposite in Political Currency Podcast... not sure how close to JM Edwina was by that point (pillow talk perhaps?)
If some of the extrapolation of the current polls is right, the Tories will win something between 75 and 150 seats.
But where are these seats ?
In the Shires.
Plus the usual suspects in the Surrey Hills and places like it.
Which constituencies do you have in mind?
Surrey is turning increasingly LibDem
Dorking. Walton and Weybrige. Waverley. Epsom.Esher that could go Lib Dem. East Surrey. Shy Tory country. Say they will vote one way and do the opposite.
Ah okay, thanks. Most of those aren’t in the Surrey Hills but I get your drift.
It’s a bold call by you. All of those are predicted by Electoral Calculus to go LibDem except Runnymede & Weybridge and East Surrey
I spend a lot of my time in the area, telling people 2 yrs ago to bet on Woking Council going LibDem - the odds were great and some people made money listening to me.
I think you’re badly wrong on this. Imho he tories have blown it in Surrey. But time will tell.
p.s. Waverley = Farnham & Bordon I believe. That looks like a LibDem gain to me. In which case it would be interesting to see whether the yellow ripple reaches as far as Fareham.
Farnham I agree. Fareham,that could go Lib Dem? I do not have info on that but the Lib Dems stretch out there.Winchester?
North East Hants is on the Sky News list as a *toss-up* Con hold. Thought it was the safest seat in the country, or biggest majority, or somesuch. But we do have a lib dem council now (in coalition with an ultra-local party that seems to be something of a lib dem front).
PB Brains Trust: I am trying to calculate, from first principles, a mortgage with a variable interest rate. Using the annuity formula I can get a monthly payment close to what the banks quote, but not exactly. I assume this is because the interest compounds daily, rather than monthly. Does anyone know how I can fix this so it matches the banks calculations?
I recall looking into this before. I think I ended up doing a big spreadsheet in excel to calculate the daily interest.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Precisely so.
I don’t think so, because I am sure You underestimate how Labour dine out on this current government shambles over time. This is the platinum version of 1974-1979. This is the most infamous and well earned kick out of government ever. Lying. Sleaze. Food costs. Mortgages. Sewage. When I needed a dentist it wasn’t there. Split party, awful PMs. There is so much here that is going to be remembered long into the future and continue to help Labour re-election chances in the General Elections to come. When trust, competence is lost, it’s a long time of hard work to get it back.
After the election of Jeremy Corbyn in 2015, even now in this election 9 years later Labour are struggling with the damage of it, so you should easily imagine how this outgoing government will still be remembered in 10 years time and longer.
Plus the fact Hunt and Sunak have fixed it that Labour have the UKs highest tax take since Second World War to benefit from, and economic growth is going to happen too in next parliament, lots of money coming in, A Labour tax cutting budget on eve of next election shoots all the Tory foxes doesn’t it?
Also Labour can operate with all the Brexit powers, they have more power and opportunity in next 10 years+ of parliamentary dominance free from EU membership than any government in last 65 years, except this current one that lost its opportunity due to covid, war and internal infighting.
You're far more optimistic about the country's finances than anyone apart from LuckyGuy (who has discovered a magic money source with no downside).
PB Brains Trust: I am trying to calculate, from first principles, a mortgage with a variable interest rate. Using the annuity formula I can get a monthly payment close to what the banks quote, but not exactly. I assume this is because the interest compounds daily, rather than monthly. Does anyone know how I can fix this so it matches the banks calculations?
I recall looking into this before. I think I ended up doing a big spreadsheet in excel to calculate the daily interest.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Precisely so.
I don’t think so, because I am sure You underestimate how Labour dine out on this current government shambles over time. This is the platinum version of 1974-1979. This is the most infamous and well earned kick out of government ever. Lying. Sleaze. Food costs. Mortgages. Sewage. When I needed a dentist it wasn’t there. Split party, awful PMs. There is so much here that is going to be remembered long into the future and continue to help Labour re-election chances in the General Elections to come. When trust, competence is lost, it’s a long time of hard work to get it back.
After the election of Jeremy Corbyn in 2015, even now in this election 9 years later Labour are struggling with the damage of it, so you should easily imagine how this outgoing government will still be remembered in 10 years time and longer.
+1
A generation. And the longer the likes of CR, WO, MM, Luckyguy etc inside the tory party deny this, the longer they will be out of power.
For a while the Conservatives need to focus on where they went wrong. Not how they hope Labour will.
I am focusing on returning a Conservative MP who has proven to be a great constituency MP - and who is one of the Conservatives the Party will need to rally round, listen to and take guidance from in opposing the incoming Labour Government. With people like him in prominence, the Conservatives will again get a hearing. And votes.
But... the members will still elect the most batshit crazy Tory MP who survives as the next leader.
They really won't...
Would you accept it will be an MP more batshit than any previous Conservative PM pre Boris?
No. As I say, watch Claire Coutinho.
I would be impressed if they are mature enough to make that choice and have just backed some 33/1. Safeish seat, cabinet minister, right age for LOTO and reasonable performer so far. But the eight who are under 20s in the betting are Badenoch, Tugendhat, Patel, Mordaunt, Farage, Braverman, Cleverly, Jenrick. I suspect it will be one of Patel or Braverman for a short period, before Farage takes over. We shall see.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Precisely so.
I don’t think so, because I am sure You underestimate how Labour dine out on this current government shambles over time. This is the platinum version of 1974-1979. This is the most infamous and well earned kick out of government ever. Lying. Sleaze. Food costs. Mortgages. Sewage. When I needed a dentist it wasn’t there. Split party, awful PMs. There is so much here that is going to be remembered long into the future and continue to help Labour re-election chances in the General Elections to come. When trust, competence is lost, it’s a long time of hard work to get it back.
After the election of Jeremy Corbyn in 2015, even now in this election 9 years later Labour are struggling with the damage of it, so you should easily imagine how this outgoing government will still be remembered in 10 years time and longer.
+1
A generation. And the longer the likes of CR, WO, MM, Luckyguy etc inside the tory party deny this, the longer they will be out of power.
For a while the Conservatives need to focus on where they went wrong. Not how they hope Labour will.
What you object to is those who pour cold water on your hope that Labour stays in power for decades, hence the ad hominem.
I'm perfectly aware of how in the toilet the Conservative brand is; if you just scroll up this very same thread, you'll see how I don't hold out much hope for them getting their act together in opposition either.
Nevertheless, I stand by my prediction: I think Labour will have a torrid time in government, they will overplay their hand thinking they have a mandate, whereas in fact they were quite deceitful in keeping shtum to gain office, and suffer fragmentation of their vote in multiple directions.
I think the same thing is coming down the tracks for them as the Conservatives. Just a few years behind.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Precisely so.
I don’t think so, because I am sure You underestimate how Labour dine out on this current government shambles over time. This is the platinum version of 1974-1979. This is the most infamous and well earned kick out of government ever. Lying. Sleaze. Food costs. Mortgages. Sewage. When I needed a dentist it wasn’t there. Split party, awful PMs. There is so much here that is going to be remembered long into the future and continue to help Labour re-election chances in the General Elections to come. When trust, competence is lost, it’s a long time of hard work to get it back.
After the election of Jeremy Corbyn in 2015, even now in this election 9 years later Labour are struggling with the damage of it, so you should easily imagine how this outgoing government will still be remembered in 10 years time and longer.
Plus the fact Hunt and Sunak have fixed it that Labour have the UKs highest tax take since Second World War to benefit from, and economic growth is going to happen too in next parliament, lots of money coming in, A Labour tax cutting budget on eve of next election shoots all the Tory foxes doesn’t it?
Also Labour can operate with all the Brexit powers, they have more power and opportunity in next 10 years+ of parliamentary dominance free from EU membership than any government in last 65 years, except this current one that lost its opportunity due to covid, war and internal infighting.
Noteworthy Labour has given up on their "Making Brexit work" rhetoric, while the Tories are completely silent on their one supposed achievement: "get Brexit done".
Hardly anyone thinks Brexit does work. Which is a problem. It will need to be addressed at some point.
You are thinking in an “over all” way, overall Brexit is not good. It certainly makes us economically poorer is the argument that seems to be winning.
Yet, imagine if we were still in it. Would that cause more or less issues for Labour in the next ten years?
Its not that sovereignty and control was taken back and given to the British people - only to the extent they elect a government as normal they actually enjoy any of it - an awful lot of power and control came back from EU treaties and courts to the cabinet table at number 10, straight into the hands of the coterie around the British PM. In that narrow way, it’s a clear Brexit dividend for the incoming Labour government. Power and control and freedom former PMs and administrations could only dream about. Tory Brexit has empowered Starmer’s government with this.
There are many interpretations of this sovereignty thing but none of them posit that the British people are sovereign. Sovereignty lies with the Crown in Parliament. Which is why the centralisation you refer to occurs. A large part of my Europhilia comes from the lack of checks and balances in the British constitution. For all the bleating we got on here last week about the SC it has nowhere near the power of similarly named bodies in other countries. It cannot overturn an Act of Parliament.
Angela Carter-Begbie, who is standing in Queen's Park and Maida Vale, has said 'Putin wants peace – it's the West that don't', that 'Ukraine was horrible to the Russians first' and that 'Putin put his people first'.
John Clark, standing in Bangor Aberconwy, described Putin as 'sane and reasonable'. He has also said supporting Ukraine was 'not in Britain's interests' and replied to Lord Cameron's support for Ukraine by saying: 'You are asset-stripping our country to pay for your globalist friends to expand their empire.'
Hamish Haddow, in Chipping Barnet, falsely claimed Boris Johnson 'stopped the Ukraine peace talks on request by [Joe] Biden' and said 'every Ukrainian death [is] firmly on Boris'.
Teresa DeSantis, in Chichester, said Boris was 'acting like Zelensky's rent boy, touting for war' while Jack Aaron in Welwyn Hatfield called Putin's use of force in Ukraine 'legitimate' and likened him to Churchill. Malcolm Cupis, in Melksham and Devizes, compared calls for Ukraine refugees in the UK to be exempt from car registration fees to 'ethnic cleansing'.
Peter Morris in Melton and Syston, claimed the war was about 'the US defence budget' while Jack Brookes, in Birmingham Erdington, claimed Boris 'kept the war going'.
All these Reform candidates should be interned and I am going to have nightmares about Boris Johnson being a rent boy.
Just aping the GOP basically.
Britain Trump is here and up and running.
Yup, do we really want the UK equivalents of Marjorie Taylor Greene in our parliament?
We.ve got Rayner and Cooper, isnt that the same ?
dearly departed Charles never had a crush on Rayner and Cooper
We could do with Charles returning, it would bring a bit of diversity to the site.
An overwhelmingly right wing message board site needs yet another Tory like a hole in the head. We should be encouraging Communists, Welsh Nationalists and Irish Republicans
Dont be silly PB veers left atm, the tone of the board tends to attract people who oppose the government of the day, The more the government fails the less likely it finds people prepared to spend time defending it so they drift off.
Assuming Starmer wins this time next year the board will be drifting rightwards as Starmer racks up failure after fialure.
PB Tories have already transitioned from blaming Starmer for the last half decade of government, to critiquing the blunders he hasn’t yet made.
If he actually succeeds at anything, I fear for their mental composure.
Take it from a serial political loser - no matter how much you think you are prepared for defeat it always hits so much harder when it actually happens.
If Johnny Mercer loses in Plymouth, his concession speech is going to be for the ages.
Edwina C on R4 this morning said Major wasn't prepared to lose in '97.
George Osborne said the complete opposite in Political Currency Podcast... not sure how close to JM Edwina was by that point (pillow talk perhaps?)
He probably was by election night. This was during the campaign.
But it's an illustration of how difficult it is to let go when you've been constantly battling the odds for years.
I don't think that will happen but if I was @Sandpit I would be a bit nervous!
I’m not too nervous yet. Yet.
You'll be fine. They have seemed to have learnt the lesson that each time they go on TV they go down 1% in the polls so have given up appearing in public to shore up support. Will be enough for the 40-140 seat range.
Angela Carter-Begbie, who is standing in Queen's Park and Maida Vale, has said 'Putin wants peace – it's the West that don't', that 'Ukraine was horrible to the Russians first' and that 'Putin put his people first'.
John Clark, standing in Bangor Aberconwy, described Putin as 'sane and reasonable'. He has also said supporting Ukraine was 'not in Britain's interests' and replied to Lord Cameron's support for Ukraine by saying: 'You are asset-stripping our country to pay for your globalist friends to expand their empire.'
Hamish Haddow, in Chipping Barnet, falsely claimed Boris Johnson 'stopped the Ukraine peace talks on request by [Joe] Biden' and said 'every Ukrainian death [is] firmly on Boris'.
Teresa DeSantis, in Chichester, said Boris was 'acting like Zelensky's rent boy, touting for war' while Jack Aaron in Welwyn Hatfield called Putin's use of force in Ukraine 'legitimate' and likened him to Churchill. Malcolm Cupis, in Melksham and Devizes, compared calls for Ukraine refugees in the UK to be exempt from car registration fees to 'ethnic cleansing'.
Peter Morris in Melton and Syston, claimed the war was about 'the US defence budget' while Jack Brookes, in Birmingham Erdington, claimed Boris 'kept the war going'.
All these Reform candidates should be interned and I am going to have nightmares about Boris Johnson being a rent boy.
Just aping the GOP basically.
Britain Trump is here and up and running.
Yup, do we really want the UK equivalents of Marjorie Taylor Greene in our parliament?
We.ve got Rayner and Cooper, isnt that the same ?
Why does Angela Rayner trigger the right so much? This post is not in any way rational.
Hearing Bridget Phillipson on 'The Rest is Politics' enthusing about the number of working-class people on the Labour front bench, I think there's going to be an awful lot of triggering going on.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Precisely so.
I don’t think so, because I am sure You underestimate how Labour dine out on this current government shambles over time. This is the platinum version of 1974-1979. This is the most infamous and well earned kick out of government ever. Lying. Sleaze. Food costs. Mortgages. Sewage. When I needed a dentist it wasn’t there. Split party, awful PMs. There is so much here that is going to be remembered long into the future and continue to help Labour re-election chances in the General Elections to come. When trust, competence is lost, it’s a long time of hard work to get it back.
After the election of Jeremy Corbyn in 2015, even now in this election 9 years later Labour are struggling with the damage of it, so you should easily imagine how this outgoing government will still be remembered in 10 years time and longer.
+1
A generation. And the longer the likes of CR, WO, MM, Luckyguy etc inside the tory party deny this, the longer they will be out of power.
For a while the Conservatives need to focus on where they went wrong. Not how they hope Labour will.
What you object to is those who pour cold water on your hope that Labour stays in power for decades, hence the ad hominem.
I'm perfectly aware of how in the toilet the Conservative brand is; if you just scroll up this very same thread, you'll see how I don't hold out much hope for them getting their act together in opposition either.
Nevertheless, I stand by my prediction: I think Labour will have a torrid time in government, they will overplay their hand thinking they have a mandate, whereas in fact they were quite deceitful in keeping shtum to gain office, and suffer fragmentation of their vote in multiple directions.
I think the same thing is coming down the tracks for them as the Conservatives. Just a few years behind.
I think there is a bigger threat from the left than the right. They could have a huge mandate and people will get very frustrated that the country isn't immediately covered in cycle lanes and solar panels, all paid for by a Landlord Tax and CGT on primary residence. Even just the two-child limit will provide a huge headache...
Look at what happened in Scotland. The SNP and Greens were highly aligned on social issues but in the end the abandonment of Green targets ended Yousaf's government. You could imagine 100-200 Labour MPs taking a similar stand.
Angela Carter-Begbie, who is standing in Queen's Park and Maida Vale, has said 'Putin wants peace – it's the West that don't', that 'Ukraine was horrible to the Russians first' and that 'Putin put his people first'.
John Clark, standing in Bangor Aberconwy, described Putin as 'sane and reasonable'. He has also said supporting Ukraine was 'not in Britain's interests' and replied to Lord Cameron's support for Ukraine by saying: 'You are asset-stripping our country to pay for your globalist friends to expand their empire.'
Hamish Haddow, in Chipping Barnet, falsely claimed Boris Johnson 'stopped the Ukraine peace talks on request by [Joe] Biden' and said 'every Ukrainian death [is] firmly on Boris'.
Teresa DeSantis, in Chichester, said Boris was 'acting like Zelensky's rent boy, touting for war' while Jack Aaron in Welwyn Hatfield called Putin's use of force in Ukraine 'legitimate' and likened him to Churchill. Malcolm Cupis, in Melksham and Devizes, compared calls for Ukraine refugees in the UK to be exempt from car registration fees to 'ethnic cleansing'.
Peter Morris in Melton and Syston, claimed the war was about 'the US defence budget' while Jack Brookes, in Birmingham Erdington, claimed Boris 'kept the war going'.
All these Reform candidates should be interned and I am going to have nightmares about Boris Johnson being a rent boy.
Just aping the GOP basically.
Britain Trump is here and up and running.
Yup, do we really want the UK equivalents of Marjorie Taylor Greene in our parliament?
We.ve got Rayner and Cooper, isnt that the same ?
dearly departed Charles never had a crush on Rayner and Cooper
We could do with Charles returning, it would bring a bit of diversity to the site.
An overwhelmingly right wing message board site needs yet another Tory like a hole in the head. We should be encouraging Communists, Welsh Nationalists and Irish Republicans
Dont be silly PB veers left atm, the tone of the board tends to attract people who oppose the government of the day, The more the government fails the less likely it finds people prepared to spend time defending it so they drift off.
Assuming Starmer wins this time next year the board will be drifting rightwards as Starmer racks up failure after fialure.
PB Tories have already transitioned from blaming Starmer for the last half decade of government, to critiquing the blunders he hasn’t yet made.
If he actually succeeds at anything, I fear for their mental composure.
Take it from a serial political loser - no matter how much you think you are prepared for defeat it always hits so much harder when it actually happens.
If Johnny Mercer loses in Plymouth, his concession speech is going to be for the ages.
I really hadn’t realised quite what a narcissist he is until recent events. Agree it may be a good one,
Off all the Torys, that is the one I would like to see defeated most, closely followed by Rees Mogg, there is something about Mercer, smug, cocky, he deserves to go, I hope the good people of Plymouth do their job, whereas I have no real wish to see Sunak lose his seat, I feel he was dealt a poor hand, and the blame lies squarely at the door of Truss and Johnson, if as anticipated they get trounced at the election
Sunak was Chancellor under Johnson as well as PM now, for a total of 4 almost continuous years, and yet you say that none of the blame is his?
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Precisely so.
I don’t think so, because I am sure You underestimate how Labour dine out on this current government shambles over time. This is the platinum version of 1974-1979. This is the most infamous and well earned kick out of government ever. Lying. Sleaze. Food costs. Mortgages. Sewage. When I needed a dentist it wasn’t there. Split party, awful PMs. There is so much here that is going to be remembered long into the future and continue to help Labour re-election chances in the General Elections to come. When trust, competence is lost, it’s a long time of hard work to get it back.
After the election of Jeremy Corbyn in 2015, even now in this election 9 years later Labour are struggling with the damage of it, so you should easily imagine how this outgoing government will still be remembered in 10 years time and longer.
+1
A generation. And the longer the likes of CR, WO, MM, Luckyguy etc inside the tory party deny this, the longer they will be out of power.
For a while the Conservatives need to focus on where they went wrong. Not how they hope Labour will.
I am focusing on returning a Conservative MP who has proven to be a great constituency MP - and who is one of the Conservatives the Party will need to rally round, listen to and take guidance from in opposing the incoming Labour Government. With people like him in prominence, the Conservatives will again get a hearing. And votes.
I wish you luck. You're one of the sane voices in the party who hasn't abandoned it.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Precisely so.
I don’t think so, because I am sure You underestimate how Labour dine out on this current government shambles over time. This is the platinum version of 1974-1979. This is the most infamous and well earned kick out of government ever. Lying. Sleaze. Food costs. Mortgages. Sewage. When I needed a dentist it wasn’t there. Split party, awful PMs. There is so much here that is going to be remembered long into the future and continue to help Labour re-election chances in the General Elections to come. When trust, competence is lost, it’s a long time of hard work to get it back.
After the election of Jeremy Corbyn in 2015, even now in this election 9 years later Labour are struggling with the damage of it, so you should easily imagine how this outgoing government will still be remembered in 10 years time and longer.
Plus the fact Hunt and Sunak have fixed it that Labour have the UKs highest tax take since Second World War to benefit from, and economic growth is going to happen too in next parliament, lots of money coming in, A Labour tax cutting budget on eve of next election shoots all the Tory foxes doesn’t it?
Also Labour can operate with all the Brexit powers, they have more power and opportunity in next 10 years+ of parliamentary dominance free from EU membership than any government in last 65 years, except this current one that lost its opportunity due to covid, war and internal infighting.
Noteworthy Labour has given up on their "Making Brexit work" rhetoric, while the Tories are completely silent on their one supposed achievement: "get Brexit done".
Hardly anyone thinks Brexit does work. Which is a problem. It will need to be addressed at some point.
You are thinking in an “over all” way, overall Brexit is not good. It certainly makes us economically poorer is the argument that seems to be winning.
Yet, imagine if we were still in it. Would that cause more or less issues for Labour in the next ten years?
Its not that sovereignty and control was taken back and given to the British people - only to the extent they elect a government as normal they actually enjoy any of it - an awful lot of power and control came back from EU treaties and courts to the cabinet table at number 10, straight into the hands of the coterie around the British PM. In that narrow way, it’s a clear Brexit dividend for the incoming Labour government. Power and control and freedom former PMs and administrations could only dream about. Tory Brexit has empowered Starmer’s government with this.
There are many interpretations of this sovereignty thing but none of them posit that the British people are sovereign. Sovereignty lies with the Crown in Parliament. Which is why the centralisation you refer to occurs. A large part of my Europhilia comes from the lack of checks and balances in the British constitution. For all the bleating we got on here last week about the SC it has nowhere near the power of similarly named bodies in other countries. It cannot overturn an Act of Parliament.
Some do however posit that the Scottish people is sovereign. Buchanan and so on.
Comments
It's all looking a bit unclear.
https://x.com/bng1965/status/1804813543071531092?s=46
https://flourish-user-preview.com/18060020/4RQ_C1BCKwbmHFzAtVsAraFLD_9ZWdx1iV3m3MzqyV8-X5QyGW-AcWGg-FpGvDcz/
Trump is consistently ahead in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. That takes him up to 263 EC votes. This is going to be a very tight election.
The polling for the mid-terms was pretty accurate. It's just that a lot of commentators thought that the Republicans would outpeform the polling.
And how do you know they have morals until they're elected and the temptations begin.
That's why they need someone like CycleFree, in the same way the financial sector need people like her.
Surrey is turning increasingly LibDem
After the election of Jeremy Corbyn in 2015, even now in this election 9 years later Labour are struggling with the damage of it, so you should easily imagine how this outgoing government will still be remembered in 10 years time and longer.
Also Labour can operate with all the Brexit powers, they have more power and opportunity in next 10 years+ of parliamentary dominance free from EU membership than any government in last 65 years, except this current one that lost its opportunity due to covid, war and internal infighting.
can you drive through contiguous Conservative held seats (and also through Lib Dem or Labour).
Longest Tory route on that link looks like either Dorset to central Wales or Essex to North Yorks.
Currently you can drive from lands end to the borders I think.
Longest Lib Dem probably just from one end of Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross to the other
A generation. And the longer the likes of CR, WO, MM, Luckyguy etc inside the tory party deny this, the longer they will be out of power.
For a while the Conservatives need to focus on where they went wrong. Not how they hope Labour will.
Hmmmm. This confirms what I have suspected. You’re not making this assertion with impartiality but with a vested interest (LibDem). There’s nothing wrong with that but on a betting site it needs to be noted.
And that’s the link to Ben Walker’s Britain Predicts ‘model’
I am not suggesting Newton Abbot may not go LibDem. There’s a case for all 3 main contenders, which is why tactical voting sites are not at all clear cut about it. My hunch right now is that it will remain Conservative.
But new problems arise and they get the focus.
As an example, what the effect AI will be on middle class employment.
In five years time people might be looking back on the Sunak premiership as the time when everyone could get a job.
So as @Casino_Royale pointed out earlier the next budget (probably in October) is going to be horrendous but all the blame will be laid on the tory party probably going all the way back to Osbourne in 2010...
I would imagine Sussex and Kent are also very strong contenders for being holdouts, too, from their parliamentary history.
The other thing, assuming a Labour Government is elected, is expectations are so low Labour don't have to get too much right to exceed them.
This narrative is very similar to that we heard from dejected Conservatives in 1997. And yet just five years ago it was all "is Boris is four term Prime Minister?"
Hardly anyone thinks Brexit does work. Which is a problem. It will need to be addressed at some point.
It’s a bold call by you. All of those are predicted by Electoral Calculus to go LibDem except Runnymede & Weybridge and East Surrey
I spend a lot of my time in the area, telling people 2 yrs ago to bet on Woking Council going LibDem - the odds were great and some people made money listening to me.
I think you’re badly wrong on this. Imho the tories have blown it in Surrey. But time will tell.
https://x.com/davidgauke/status/1804812625022226438?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
Anyone who knows York at all has a wealth of opportunity to really get ahead of this game - assuming everyone else does too.
I'd offer you a other fiver years of swivel -eyed UK Conservatism in exchange for a Trump defeat.
It's not however been achieved by the Labour party themselves over 90% of the destruction of the Tory party vote has been done by the Tory party themselves through Boris, Truss, Rishi and then this utterly self destructing election campaign..
Which is why I think it's safe to say that Labour will be in power for 2 elections minimum, there is zero chance SKS and co will run a Government as incompetent and as policy / law empty as the last 5 years...
Can you remind me which seat and I’ll keep an eye out.
I’d like to see the tories do okay and with some moderate, sensible, faces.
It's the economy, stupid.
It shows Labour 429 seats, Conservative 127, Liberal Democrat 48, SNP 19, Plaid Cymru 4, and Reform UK 3, giving an overall Labour majority of 210.
That forecast uses the current default UK-Elect settings, fairly similar to those used for reasonably accurate forecasts in the past, using the actual candidate list and taking some account of by-elections since 2019, incumbency, and tactical voting among other factors. As has been the case with other recent forecasts there are a lot of seats that are marginal, and considerable uncertainty which is the best forecasting algorithms to use. This forecast, in fact, combines various methods, including both proportional and UNS elements. Although the algorithm is targeted at forecasting the overall situation more than individual seats the forecast top three in every constituency can be found here: https://www.ukelect.co.uk/20240623ForecastUK/UKTop3Forecast.csv
It will be a disappointing night if the LDs don't win:
Walton and Esher
Guildford
Godalming and Ash
I believe they will also win:
Dorking and Horley
Woking
I believe they can also win (but that would be a joyous night):
Surrey Heath
There are others like:
Epsom and Ewell
Farnham and Bordon
etc
These can fall, but in all honesty it would require a complete Tory meltdown and the LD vote being higher than it currently is as there isn't enough of a local Labour squeeze message in these I suspect.
A warning to punters - Just to make clear although I am in Guildford I am playing a lowly role this time so don't really have any inside info.
https://open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/mapping-voter-coalitions?r=72szy&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
One of the MRPs had Woking as toss up but I think that’s wide of the mark: very solid LibDem gain this time.
Watch out for Claire Coutinho.
Yet, imagine if we were still in it. Would that cause more or less issues for Labour in the next ten years?
Its not that sovereignty and control was taken back and given to the British people - only to the extent they elect a government as normal they actually enjoy any of it - an awful lot of power and control came back from EU treaties and courts to the cabinet table at number 10, straight into the hands of the coterie around the British PM. In that narrow way, it’s a clear Brexit dividend for the incoming Labour government. Power and control and freedom former PMs and administrations could only dream about. Tory Brexit has empowered Starmer’s government with this.
They can't win Horley and not Dorking it is the same constituency
I wasn't predicting Farnham and Bordon, other than an outside shot. It is not one of the key targets. When SW Surrey was split (which was a target) the best bit became Godalming and Ash (Ash came from Surrey Heath).
When the architect of the scheme describes it as a pile of pants but blames the builders and the builders aren't there because they've gone into liquidation it's surely time to rejoin without further ado
One is her association with Sunak.
The other is that, as a pragmatist, I suspect she will be cool on making a generous offer to the Faragists. And, appalling as Nigel is, he's going to be awfully attractive to a desperate Conservative Party.
Unfortunately for Claire Coutinho, her political career is likely to peak while her party is in the wilderness.
Ranil is no James Arbuthnot.
https://money.stackexchange.com/questions/52043/excel-formula-for-amortization-schedulefor-a-loan-with-daily-compound-interest
I'm perfectly aware of how in the toilet the Conservative brand is; if you just scroll up this very same thread, you'll see how I don't hold out much hope for them getting their act together in opposition either.
Nevertheless, I stand by my prediction: I think Labour will have a torrid time in government, they will overplay their hand thinking they have a mandate, whereas in fact they were quite deceitful in keeping shtum to gain office, and suffer fragmentation of their vote in multiple directions.
I think the same thing is coming down the tracks for them as the Conservatives. Just a few years behind.
This was during the campaign.
But it's an illustration of how difficult it is to let go when you've been constantly battling the odds for years.
Look at what happened in Scotland. The SNP and Greens were highly aligned on social issues but in the end the abandonment of Green targets ended Yousaf's government. You could imagine 100-200 Labour MPs taking a similar stand.
You're one of the sane voices in the party who hasn't abandoned it.