The charge of light in the head brigade – politicalbetting.com
The Chief Data Officer of the Tory Party is under investigation over Bettingate.Also The Sunday Times reports resources are being diverted to Rishi Sunak's constituency because of the D-Day mistake https://t.co/GnsMnEC8Sp
There're be another by-election in Richmond & Northallerton this year anyway so this all seems rather pointless.
Can't say I'm attracted by the 2/1 on Labour.
I was in Richmond yesterday. It didn't feel like somewhere preparing to elect a Tory MP. But yes, I don't find the current odds on the seat particularly enticing. I'd say if Lab are winning Richmond they may be up around the 500 seat mark, and a bet on Lab 500 seats plus is probably better value.
I have no doubt they will keep up the betting scandal to the last day of the election. There is a flipside to this. Diehard Tories will be more resolved to vote for their party. If this happended to Labour their supporters would not be put off voting for their party in the same way. Still ,it avoids the issues and policies of both parties that matter being talked about.I guess tomorrow we can have farage and revert back to the Betting scandal Tuesday etc. Pathetic and predictable. Aviod talking about the economy.Jobs. Mental health and how to improve it, our road and rail infrastructure that needs to be brought into the 21st century. Improving the quality of life for the country as a whole. No, Just the betting scandal and Farage. Bollocks.
If Rishi loses his seat does the Conservative party have rules for a temporary leader?
In 2019 the Lib Dems following the general election had the deputy leader and the president of the party being joint leader before the election of the leader in 2020.
There're be another by-election in Richmond & Northallerton this year anyway so this all seems rather pointless.
Can't say I'm attracted by the 2/1 on Labour.
I was in Richmond yesterday. It didn't feel like somewhere preparing to elect a Tory MP. But yes, I don't find the current odds on the seat particularly enticing. I'd say if Lab are winning Richmond they may be up around the 500 seat mark, and a bet on Lab 500 seats plus is probably better value.
Angela Carter-Begbie, who is standing in Queen's Park and Maida Vale, has said 'Putin wants peace – it's the West that don't', that 'Ukraine was horrible to the Russians first' and that 'Putin put his people first'.
John Clark, standing in Bangor Aberconwy, described Putin as 'sane and reasonable'. He has also said supporting Ukraine was 'not in Britain's interests' and replied to Lord Cameron's support for Ukraine by saying: 'You are asset-stripping our country to pay for your globalist friends to expand their empire.'
Hamish Haddow, in Chipping Barnet, falsely claimed Boris Johnson 'stopped the Ukraine peace talks on request by [Joe] Biden' and said 'every Ukrainian death [is] firmly on Boris'.
Teresa DeSantis, in Chichester, said Boris was 'acting like Zelensky's rent boy, touting for war' while Jack Aaron in Welwyn Hatfield called Putin's use of force in Ukraine 'legitimate' and likened him to Churchill. Malcolm Cupis, in Melksham and Devizes, compared calls for Ukraine refugees in the UK to be exempt from car registration fees to 'ethnic cleansing'.
Peter Morris in Melton and Syston, claimed the war was about 'the US defence budget' while Jack Brookes, in Birmingham Erdington, claimed Boris 'kept the war going'.
I'm so glad Rishi Sunak called an early election to wrongfoot Reform!!
I wish you joy of Sunak's resignation as Conservative Party leader on July 5th.
Pure joy would have been if Johnson had still been around, and seeing him go down.
That he didn't run in that by-election suggests that he was well aware of the level of public anticipation there would have been for such a deserved fate.
Gove is going. He may well come back and step in to be the temporary leader. Why not? He has already done as much damage as possible. A little more perhaps? Or Boris and Farage as joint leaders.
Angela Carter-Begbie, who is standing in Queen's Park and Maida Vale, has said 'Putin wants peace – it's the West that don't', that 'Ukraine was horrible to the Russians first' and that 'Putin put his people first'.
John Clark, standing in Bangor Aberconwy, described Putin as 'sane and reasonable'. He has also said supporting Ukraine was 'not in Britain's interests' and replied to Lord Cameron's support for Ukraine by saying: 'You are asset-stripping our country to pay for your globalist friends to expand their empire.'
Hamish Haddow, in Chipping Barnet, falsely claimed Boris Johnson 'stopped the Ukraine peace talks on request by [Joe] Biden' and said 'every Ukrainian death [is] firmly on Boris'.
Teresa DeSantis, in Chichester, said Boris was 'acting like Zelensky's rent boy, touting for war' while Jack Aaron in Welwyn Hatfield called Putin's use of force in Ukraine 'legitimate' and likened him to Churchill. Malcolm Cupis, in Melksham and Devizes, compared calls for Ukraine refugees in the UK to be exempt from car registration fees to 'ethnic cleansing'.
Peter Morris in Melton and Syston, claimed the war was about 'the US defence budget' while Jack Brookes, in Birmingham Erdington, claimed Boris 'kept the war going'.
On last night's polls Sunak would hold Richmond and Northallerton. Given the Guardian report yesterday that Labour is considering a wealth tax and ending the inheritance tax exemption for farm estates hard to see a rural seat like his voting Labour
Gove is going. He may well come back and step in to be the temporary leader. Why not? He has already done as much damage as possible. A little more perhaps? Or Boris and Farage as joint leaders.
Even to be in temporary charge you need to be an MP - so it's going to be the most senior minister left standing (dread to think who that could be).
Starmer’s growth plan ‘doomed’ without access to EU markets, warn economists Labour leader told if elected he will have to rejoin the customs union to meet party’s manifesto pledges, while 56% of voters say Brexit was bad for economy
That is why the eu is not mentioned in the manifesto one way or the other. I don't know how else to interpretation the situation.
If he needs to rejoin the Customs Union then he us truly screwed. That is an absolute no-no without full EU membership
Full EU-membership means the Euro. No way a UK crawling back to Brussels avoids that.
Oh, and a provision that you can only use Article 50 once. And we've already played our joker on that.
Try implementing that package without a referendum...
It’s not happening anytime soon and there’s zip chance of the UK rejoining unless there was an overwhelming majority to do so . I think it’s more likely the UK would enter a more EEA type scenario which completely rules out the Euro .
Which in the context of the original post does rulebook Customs Union membership. But would give us Single Market access.
Sorry rule out not rulebook. Bloody predictive text.
The UK could be in “a customs union” with the EU, as are San Marino and Andorra (and indeed Turkey). It wouldn’t be in “the EU customs union” but the impact on goods imports and exports is the same. Single market participation is needed as well though for properly seamless trade and its SM that also brings free movement and regulatory alignment (hence why there are queues at the CU but not SM Turkish border).
In fact a couple of micro states are actually CU participants, Monaco for example, but they don’t have independent trade policies.
But @Richard_Tyndall is right. If we are going to do that then better to Rejoin properly.
It would of course be better to join properly, but if we’re in the business of taking steps to improve trade without going near the toxic topic that is EU membership (for now) then customs union is a feasible step.
I agree, that's why the salami approach to Brexit is the best approach. Thin slices until nothing is left.
I hope that’ll be the case. I saw a tweet the other day, think it was big bad Ali Campbell, saying IIRC 80-odd per cent of the under 30s want to Rejoin. There’s an article on the Guardian front page at the mo: ‘Starmer’s growth plan ‘doomed’ without access to EU markets, warn economists’ saying, amongst other things, ‘56% of voters now believe Brexit has been bad for the UK economy as a whole, compared with just 12% who believe it has been economically beneficial.
There’s also a quote in there (from a senior EU diplomat so you Leavers can airily dismiss it out of hand): ‘“We used to be a far more effective trading nation than we are now. The cause of that is Brexit. There is no getting away from that.”’
Brexit is irreparably damaged, holed below the waterline. Business hates it. A majority of the under 60s hate it. It is tarnished by the corruption divisiveness and malevolence of the outgoing government. The fevered promises of the Leave campaigns haven’t materialised.
While the Boomers are still about in sufficient numbers we will have to tip toe back to the EU. But as the inevitable happens reality, the demands of business and of those too young to vote in the referendum and those who voted to Remain will become too big to ignore. Boomer concerns will fade away, like keeping the pound in the age of Apple Pay. There aren’t enough sovereigntists wibbling about unelected EU bureaucrats to outweigh that - perhaps the full horror for them is if it becomes the settled view in the country that things were better, with better outcomes for more people, when we were in the EU. I don’t think we’re a million miles from that. The argument ‘yeah it’s shit, but it’s our shit’ isn’t particularly persuasive, is it?
Angela Carter-Begbie, who is standing in Queen's Park and Maida Vale, has said 'Putin wants peace – it's the West that don't', that 'Ukraine was horrible to the Russians first' and that 'Putin put his people first'.
John Clark, standing in Bangor Aberconwy, described Putin as 'sane and reasonable'. He has also said supporting Ukraine was 'not in Britain's interests' and replied to Lord Cameron's support for Ukraine by saying: 'You are asset-stripping our country to pay for your globalist friends to expand their empire.'
Hamish Haddow, in Chipping Barnet, falsely claimed Boris Johnson 'stopped the Ukraine peace talks on request by [Joe] Biden' and said 'every Ukrainian death [is] firmly on Boris'.
Teresa DeSantis, in Chichester, said Boris was 'acting like Zelensky's rent boy, touting for war' while Jack Aaron in Welwyn Hatfield called Putin's use of force in Ukraine 'legitimate' and likened him to Churchill. Malcolm Cupis, in Melksham and Devizes, compared calls for Ukraine refugees in the UK to be exempt from car registration fees to 'ethnic cleansing'.
Peter Morris in Melton and Syston, claimed the war was about 'the US defence budget' while Jack Brookes, in Birmingham Erdington, claimed Boris 'kept the war going'.
Who will be the last two Tories left standing ? Perhaps Penny and Tom Tugendhat.
Penny will lose Portsmouth North, it was Labour in 1997. Of the most senior Cabinet ministers Barclay, Tugendhat, Badenoch and indeed Sunak all have pretty safe seats
Gove is going. He may well come back and step in to be the temporary leader. Why not? He has already done as much damage as possible. A little more perhaps? Or Boris and Farage as joint leaders.
Even to be in temporary charge you need to be an MP - so it's going to be the most senior minister left standing (dread to think who that could be).
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
The last dozen polls average Labour 40%, Con 19.6%, Reform 17.5%, Lib Dem 11.2%, Green 6.3%. The Conservatives are now working very hard to drive their vote into the mid teens.
Starmer’s growth plan ‘doomed’ without access to EU markets, warn economists Labour leader told if elected he will have to rejoin the customs union to meet party’s manifesto pledges, while 56% of voters say Brexit was bad for economy
That is why the eu is not mentioned in the manifesto one way or the other. I don't know how else to interpretation the situation.
If he needs to rejoin the Customs Union then he us truly screwed. That is an absolute no-no without full EU membership
Full EU-membership means the Euro. No way a UK crawling back to Brussels avoids that.
Oh, and a provision that you can only use Article 50 once. And we've already played our joker on that.
Try implementing that package without a referendum...
It’s not happening anytime soon and there’s zip chance of the UK rejoining unless there was an overwhelming majority to do so . I think it’s more likely the UK would enter a more EEA type scenario which completely rules out the Euro .
Which in the context of the original post does rulebook Customs Union membership. But would give us Single Market access.
Sorry rule out not rulebook. Bloody predictive text.
The UK could be in “a customs union” with the EU, as are San Marino and Andorra (and indeed Turkey). It wouldn’t be in “the EU customs union” but the impact on goods imports and exports is the same. Single market participation is needed as well though for properly seamless trade and its SM that also brings free movement and regulatory alignment (hence why there are queues at the CU but not SM Turkish border).
In fact a couple of micro states are actually CU participants, Monaco for example, but they don’t have independent trade policies.
But @Richard_Tyndall is right. If we are going to do that then better to Rejoin properly.
It would of course be better to join properly, but if we’re in the business of taking steps to improve trade without going near the toxic topic that is EU membership (for now) then customs union is a feasible step.
I agree, that's why the salami approach to Brexit is the best approach. Thin slices until nothing is left.
I hope that’ll be the case. I saw a tweet the other day, think it was big bad Ali Campbell, saying IIRC 80-odd per cent of the under 30s want to Rejoin. There’s an article on the Guardian front page at the mo: ‘Starmer’s growth plan ‘doomed’ without access to EU markets, warn economists’ saying, amongst other things, ‘56% of voters now believe Brexit has been bad for the UK economy as a whole, compared with just 12% who believe it has been economically beneficial.
There’s also a quote in there (from a senior EU diplomat so you Leavers can airily dismiss it out of hand): ‘“We used to be a far more effective trading nation than we are now. The cause of that is Brexit. There is no getting away from that.”’
Brexit is irreparably damaged, holed below the waterline. Business hates it. A majority of the under 60s hate it. It is tarnished by the corruption divisiveness and malevolence of the outgoing government. The fevered promises of the Leave campaigns haven’t materialised.
While the Boomers are still about in sufficient numbers we will have to tip toe back to the EU. But as the inevitable happens reality, the demands of business and of those too young to vote in the referendum and those who voted to Remain will become too big to ignore. Boomer concerns will fade away, like keeping the pound in the age of Apple Pay. There aren’t enough sovereigntists wibbling about unelected EU bureaucrats to outweigh that - perhaps the full horror for them is if it becomes the settled view in the country that things were better, with better outcomes for more people, when we were in the EU. I don’t think we’re a million miles from that. The argument ‘yeah it’s shit, but it’s our shit’ isn’t particularly persuasive, is it?
You are a classic example of someone who knows the cost of everything and the value of nothing.
Thankfully you are also wrong. A Starmer victory will make Rejoin less rather than more likely.
The last dozen polls average Labour 40%, Con 19.6%, Reform 17.5%, Lib Dem 11.2%, Green 6.3%. The Conservatives are now working very hard to drive their vote into the mid teens.
Another futile Sunak strategy. The mid teens aren’t allowed to vote.
O/T Public Service Announcement but on a Sunday morning when I’m at a loose end I find an “old” film to watch, has to be an old classic and very rarely on my normal streaming services but usually BBC or ITV.
This morning I found that The Day of the Jackal is on ITV player and I forgot what an absolute masterpiece it is. Haven’t watched in over 20 odd years but it’s been a wonderful reunion. Not all the Foxes are arseheads. That is all.
Gove is going. He may well come back and step in to be the temporary leader. Why not? He has already done as much damage as possible. A little more perhaps? Or Boris and Farage as joint leaders.
Even to be in temporary charge you need to be an MP - so it's going to be the most senior minister left standing (dread to think who that could be).
If Rishi loses his seat does the Conservative party have rules for a temporary leader?
In 2019 the Lib Dems following the general election had the deputy leader and the president of the party being joint leader before the election of the leader in 2020.
Note that on BX the next conservative leader market is explicitly non-interim and after a vote by the members, so no interesting technical opportunities there.
Gove is going. He may well come back and step in to be the temporary leader. Why not? He has already done as much damage as possible. A little more perhaps? Or Boris and Farage as joint leaders.
Even to be in temporary charge you need to be an MP - so it's going to be the most senior minister left standing (dread to think who that could be).
Can't be Cameron, won't be Hunt (if Sunak falls, there's no way he survives), which leaves Cleverly. Could do (and probably will do) a lot worse.
Gove is going. He may well come back and step in to be the temporary leader. Why not? He has already done as much damage as possible. A little more perhaps? Or Boris and Farage as joint leaders.
Even to be in temporary charge you need to be an MP - so it's going to be the most senior minister left standing (dread to think who that could be).
Gove is going. He may well come back and step in to be the temporary leader. Why not? He has already done as much damage as possible. A little more perhaps? Or Boris and Farage as joint leaders.
Even to be in temporary charge you need to be an MP - so it's going to be the most senior minister left standing (dread to think who that could be).
Can't be Cameron, won't be Hunt (if Sunak falls, there's no way he survives), which leaves Cleverly. Could do (and probably will do) a lot worse.
The headlines today are terrible for the Tories (again).
I am really beginning to wonder if this does lead to sub 100 MPs for them, Not my central case, but whereas I was thinking 130 +/- 15, and about 23%, I am wondering if it is now 110 +/- 15 and only 21%,
O/T Public Service Announcement but on a Sunday morning when I’m at a loose end I find an “old” film to watch, has to be an old classic and very rarely on my normal streaming services but usually BBC or ITV.
This morning I found that The Day of the Jackal is on ITV player and I forgot what an absolute masterpiece it is. Haven’t watched in over 20 odd years but it’s been a wonderful reunion. Not all the Foxes are arseheads. That is all.
Angela Carter-Begbie, who is standing in Queen's Park and Maida Vale, has said 'Putin wants peace – it's the West that don't', that 'Ukraine was horrible to the Russians first' and that 'Putin put his people first'.
John Clark, standing in Bangor Aberconwy, described Putin as 'sane and reasonable'. He has also said supporting Ukraine was 'not in Britain's interests' and replied to Lord Cameron's support for Ukraine by saying: 'You are asset-stripping our country to pay for your globalist friends to expand their empire.'
Hamish Haddow, in Chipping Barnet, falsely claimed Boris Johnson 'stopped the Ukraine peace talks on request by [Joe] Biden' and said 'every Ukrainian death [is] firmly on Boris'.
Teresa DeSantis, in Chichester, said Boris was 'acting like Zelensky's rent boy, touting for war' while Jack Aaron in Welwyn Hatfield called Putin's use of force in Ukraine 'legitimate' and likened him to Churchill. Malcolm Cupis, in Melksham and Devizes, compared calls for Ukraine refugees in the UK to be exempt from car registration fees to 'ethnic cleansing'.
Peter Morris in Melton and Syston, claimed the war was about 'the US defence budget' while Jack Brookes, in Birmingham Erdington, claimed Boris 'kept the war going'.
Angela Carter-Begbie, who is standing in Queen's Park and Maida Vale, has said 'Putin wants peace – it's the West that don't', that 'Ukraine was horrible to the Russians first' and that 'Putin put his people first'.
John Clark, standing in Bangor Aberconwy, described Putin as 'sane and reasonable'. He has also said supporting Ukraine was 'not in Britain's interests' and replied to Lord Cameron's support for Ukraine by saying: 'You are asset-stripping our country to pay for your globalist friends to expand their empire.'
Hamish Haddow, in Chipping Barnet, falsely claimed Boris Johnson 'stopped the Ukraine peace talks on request by [Joe] Biden' and said 'every Ukrainian death [is] firmly on Boris'.
Teresa DeSantis, in Chichester, said Boris was 'acting like Zelensky's rent boy, touting for war' while Jack Aaron in Welwyn Hatfield called Putin's use of force in Ukraine 'legitimate' and likened him to Churchill. Malcolm Cupis, in Melksham and Devizes, compared calls for Ukraine refugees in the UK to be exempt from car registration fees to 'ethnic cleansing'.
Peter Morris in Melton and Syston, claimed the war was about 'the US defence budget' while Jack Brookes, in Birmingham Erdington, claimed Boris 'kept the war going'.
The headlines today are terrible for the Tories (again).
I am really beginning to wonder if this does lead to sub 100 MPs for them, Not my central case, but whereas I was thinking 130 +/- 15, and about 23%, I am wondering if it is now 110 +/- 15 and only 21%,
If the median is anywhere near 130 the +/- is much bigger than 15 imo.
The headlines today are terrible for the Tories (again).
I am really beginning to wonder if this does lead to sub 100 MPs for them, Not my central case, but whereas I was thinking 130 +/- 15, and about 23%, I am wondering if it is now 110 +/- 15 and only 21%,
O/T Public Service Announcement but on a Sunday morning when I’m at a loose end I find an “old” film to watch, has to be an old classic and very rarely on my normal streaming services but usually BBC or ITV.
This morning I found that The Day of the Jackal is on ITV player and I forgot what an absolute masterpiece it is. Haven’t watched in over 20 odd years but it’s been a wonderful reunion. Not all the Foxes are arseheads. That is all.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Angela Carter-Begbie, who is standing in Queen's Park and Maida Vale, has said 'Putin wants peace – it's the West that don't', that 'Ukraine was horrible to the Russians first' and that 'Putin put his people first'.
John Clark, standing in Bangor Aberconwy, described Putin as 'sane and reasonable'. He has also said supporting Ukraine was 'not in Britain's interests' and replied to Lord Cameron's support for Ukraine by saying: 'You are asset-stripping our country to pay for your globalist friends to expand their empire.'
Hamish Haddow, in Chipping Barnet, falsely claimed Boris Johnson 'stopped the Ukraine peace talks on request by [Joe] Biden' and said 'every Ukrainian death [is] firmly on Boris'.
Teresa DeSantis, in Chichester, said Boris was 'acting like Zelensky's rent boy, touting for war' while Jack Aaron in Welwyn Hatfield called Putin's use of force in Ukraine 'legitimate' and likened him to Churchill. Malcolm Cupis, in Melksham and Devizes, compared calls for Ukraine refugees in the UK to be exempt from car registration fees to 'ethnic cleansing'.
Peter Morris in Melton and Syston, claimed the war was about 'the US defence budget' while Jack Brookes, in Birmingham Erdington, claimed Boris 'kept the war going'.
O/T Public Service Announcement but on a Sunday morning when I’m at a loose end I find an “old” film to watch, has to be an old classic and very rarely on my normal streaming services but usually BBC or ITV.
This morning I found that The Day of the Jackal is on ITV player and I forgot what an absolute masterpiece it is. Haven’t watched in over 20 odd years but it’s been a wonderful reunion. Not all the Foxes are arseheads. That is all.
Angela Carter-Begbie, who is standing in Queen's Park and Maida Vale, has said 'Putin wants peace – it's the West that don't', that 'Ukraine was horrible to the Russians first' and that 'Putin put his people first'.
John Clark, standing in Bangor Aberconwy, described Putin as 'sane and reasonable'. He has also said supporting Ukraine was 'not in Britain's interests' and replied to Lord Cameron's support for Ukraine by saying: 'You are asset-stripping our country to pay for your globalist friends to expand their empire.'
Hamish Haddow, in Chipping Barnet, falsely claimed Boris Johnson 'stopped the Ukraine peace talks on request by [Joe] Biden' and said 'every Ukrainian death [is] firmly on Boris'.
Teresa DeSantis, in Chichester, said Boris was 'acting like Zelensky's rent boy, touting for war' while Jack Aaron in Welwyn Hatfield called Putin's use of force in Ukraine 'legitimate' and likened him to Churchill. Malcolm Cupis, in Melksham and Devizes, compared calls for Ukraine refugees in the UK to be exempt from car registration fees to 'ethnic cleansing'.
Peter Morris in Melton and Syston, claimed the war was about 'the US defence budget' while Jack Brookes, in Birmingham Erdington, claimed Boris 'kept the war going'.
Angela Carter-Begbie, who is standing in Queen's Park and Maida Vale, has said 'Putin wants peace – it's the West that don't', that 'Ukraine was horrible to the Russians first' and that 'Putin put his people first'.
John Clark, standing in Bangor Aberconwy, described Putin as 'sane and reasonable'. He has also said supporting Ukraine was 'not in Britain's interests' and replied to Lord Cameron's support for Ukraine by saying: 'You are asset-stripping our country to pay for your globalist friends to expand their empire.'
Hamish Haddow, in Chipping Barnet, falsely claimed Boris Johnson 'stopped the Ukraine peace talks on request by [Joe] Biden' and said 'every Ukrainian death [is] firmly on Boris'.
Teresa DeSantis, in Chichester, said Boris was 'acting like Zelensky's rent boy, touting for war' while Jack Aaron in Welwyn Hatfield called Putin's use of force in Ukraine 'legitimate' and likened him to Churchill. Malcolm Cupis, in Melksham and Devizes, compared calls for Ukraine refugees in the UK to be exempt from car registration fees to 'ethnic cleansing'.
Peter Morris in Melton and Syston, claimed the war was about 'the US defence budget' while Jack Brookes, in Birmingham Erdington, claimed Boris 'kept the war going'.
Gove is going. He may well come back and step in to be the temporary leader. Why not? He has already done as much damage as possible. A little more perhaps? Or Boris and Farage as joint leaders.
Even to be in temporary charge you need to be an MP - so it's going to be the most senior minister left standing (dread to think who that could be).
Can't be Cameron, won't be Hunt (if Sunak falls, there's no way he survives), which leaves Cleverly. Could do (and probably will do) a lot worse.
Penny?
Not senior enough.
If things go so badly that Sunak is out, not elected enough.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Seems opposite to what Labour stand for, so it seems unlikely they’d pursue it.
Angela Carter-Begbie, who is standing in Queen's Park and Maida Vale, has said 'Putin wants peace – it's the West that don't', that 'Ukraine was horrible to the Russians first' and that 'Putin put his people first'.
John Clark, standing in Bangor Aberconwy, described Putin as 'sane and reasonable'. He has also said supporting Ukraine was 'not in Britain's interests' and replied to Lord Cameron's support for Ukraine by saying: 'You are asset-stripping our country to pay for your globalist friends to expand their empire.'
Hamish Haddow, in Chipping Barnet, falsely claimed Boris Johnson 'stopped the Ukraine peace talks on request by [Joe] Biden' and said 'every Ukrainian death [is] firmly on Boris'.
Teresa DeSantis, in Chichester, said Boris was 'acting like Zelensky's rent boy, touting for war' while Jack Aaron in Welwyn Hatfield called Putin's use of force in Ukraine 'legitimate' and likened him to Churchill. Malcolm Cupis, in Melksham and Devizes, compared calls for Ukraine refugees in the UK to be exempt from car registration fees to 'ethnic cleansing'.
Peter Morris in Melton and Syston, claimed the war was about 'the US defence budget' while Jack Brookes, in Birmingham Erdington, claimed Boris 'kept the war going'.
Gove is going. He may well come back and step in to be the temporary leader. Why not? He has already done as much damage as possible. A little more perhaps? Or Boris and Farage as joint leaders.
Even to be in temporary charge you need to be an MP - so it's going to be the most senior minister left standing (dread to think who that could be).
Can't be Cameron, won't be Hunt (if Sunak falls, there's no way he survives), which leaves Cleverly. Could do (and probably will do) a lot worse.
Penny?
Not senior enough.
If things go so badly that Sunak is out, not elected enough.
Starmer’s growth plan ‘doomed’ without access to EU markets, warn economists Labour leader told if elected he will have to rejoin the customs union to meet party’s manifesto pledges, while 56% of voters say Brexit was bad for economy
That is why the eu is not mentioned in the manifesto one way or the other. I don't know how else to interpretation the situation.
If he needs to rejoin the Customs Union then he us truly screwed. That is an absolute no-no without full EU membership
Full EU-membership means the Euro. No way a UK crawling back to Brussels avoids that.
Oh, and a provision that you can only use Article 50 once. And we've already played our joker on that.
Try implementing that package without a referendum...
It’s not happening anytime soon and there’s zip chance of the UK rejoining unless there was an overwhelming majority to do so . I think it’s more likely the UK would enter a more EEA type scenario which completely rules out the Euro .
Which in the context of the original post does rulebook Customs Union membership. But would give us Single Market access.
Sorry rule out not rulebook. Bloody predictive text.
The UK could be in “a customs union” with the EU, as are San Marino and Andorra (and indeed Turkey). It wouldn’t be in “the EU customs union” but the impact on goods imports and exports is the same. Single market participation is needed as well though for properly seamless trade and its SM that also brings free movement and regulatory alignment (hence why there are queues at the CU but not SM Turkish border).
In fact a couple of micro states are actually CU participants, Monaco for example, but they don’t have independent trade policies.
But @Richard_Tyndall is right. If we are going to do that then better to Rejoin properly.
It would of course be better to join properly, but if we’re in the business of taking steps to improve trade without going near the toxic topic that is EU membership (for now) then customs union is a feasible step.
I agree, that's why the salami approach to Brexit is the best approach. Thin slices until nothing is left.
I hope that’ll be the case. I saw a tweet the other day, think it was big bad Ali Campbell, saying IIRC 80-odd per cent of the under 30s want to Rejoin. There’s an article on the Guardian front page at the mo: ‘Starmer’s growth plan ‘doomed’ without access to EU markets, warn economists’ saying, amongst other things, ‘56% of voters now believe Brexit has been bad for the UK economy as a whole, compared with just 12% who believe it has been economically beneficial.
There’s also a quote in there (from a senior EU diplomat so you Leavers can airily dismiss it out of hand): ‘“We used to be a far more effective trading nation than we are now. The cause of that is Brexit. There is no getting away from that.”’
Brexit is irreparably damaged, holed below the waterline. Business hates it. A majority of the under 60s hate it. It is tarnished by the corruption divisiveness and malevolence of the outgoing government. The fevered promises of the Leave campaigns haven’t materialised.
While the Boomers are still about in sufficient numbers we will have to tip toe back to the EU. But as the inevitable happens reality, the demands of business and of those too young to vote in the referendum and those who voted to Remain will become too big to ignore. Boomer concerns will fade away, like keeping the pound in the age of Apple Pay. There aren’t enough sovereigntists wibbling about unelected EU bureaucrats to outweigh that - perhaps the full horror for them is if it becomes the settled view in the country that things were better, with better outcomes for more people, when we were in the EU. I don’t think we’re a million miles from that. The argument ‘yeah it’s shit, but it’s our shit’ isn’t particularly persuasive, is it?
Hopefully
One thing we're not factoring in yet - because of all the uncertainty - is the dramatic change in political mood there will be with a new government, particularly if the Tories are reduced to a rump and tearing themselves apart over their future. Fifty discredited Tories trying to make a fuss about regulatory and trade alignment with the EU aren't going to get much of a hearing.
Angela Carter-Begbie, who is standing in Queen's Park and Maida Vale, has said 'Putin wants peace – it's the West that don't', that 'Ukraine was horrible to the Russians first' and that 'Putin put his people first'.
John Clark, standing in Bangor Aberconwy, described Putin as 'sane and reasonable'. He has also said supporting Ukraine was 'not in Britain's interests' and replied to Lord Cameron's support for Ukraine by saying: 'You are asset-stripping our country to pay for your globalist friends to expand their empire.'
Hamish Haddow, in Chipping Barnet, falsely claimed Boris Johnson 'stopped the Ukraine peace talks on request by [Joe] Biden' and said 'every Ukrainian death [is] firmly on Boris'.
Teresa DeSantis, in Chichester, said Boris was 'acting like Zelensky's rent boy, touting for war' while Jack Aaron in Welwyn Hatfield called Putin's use of force in Ukraine 'legitimate' and likened him to Churchill. Malcolm Cupis, in Melksham and Devizes, compared calls for Ukraine refugees in the UK to be exempt from car registration fees to 'ethnic cleansing'.
Peter Morris in Melton and Syston, claimed the war was about 'the US defence budget' while Jack Brookes, in Birmingham Erdington, claimed Boris 'kept the war going'.
What on earth is the point of diverting resources into Sunak's seat?
Even if he stays in the country, barring an amazing turnaround he's not going to be leader for very long after the election, and is very unlikely to have any front-bench role.
The headlines today are terrible for the Tories (again).
I am really beginning to wonder if this does lead to sub 100 MPs for them, Not my central case, but whereas I was thinking 130 +/- 15, and about 23%, I am wondering if it is now 110 +/- 15 and only 21%,
It's this weekend that postal votes will be done too, a significant chunk of the previous Tory vote. I also think Tories on 110 and 23% of the vote.
The headlines today are terrible for the Tories (again).
I am really beginning to wonder if this does lead to sub 100 MPs for them, Not my central case, but whereas I was thinking 130 +/- 15, and about 23%, I am wondering if it is now 110 +/- 15 and only 21%,
150 I would say.
I must admit 150 seems my ball park, esp given NF's appeasement slip regarding Russia, their vote will haemorrhage in 5 directions in most cases (Lab, LD, Ref, Nat/GreeN or dont vote) which should save quite a few in the shires....
Angela Carter-Begbie, who is standing in Queen's Park and Maida Vale, has said 'Putin wants peace – it's the West that don't', that 'Ukraine was horrible to the Russians first' and that 'Putin put his people first'.
John Clark, standing in Bangor Aberconwy, described Putin as 'sane and reasonable'. He has also said supporting Ukraine was 'not in Britain's interests' and replied to Lord Cameron's support for Ukraine by saying: 'You are asset-stripping our country to pay for your globalist friends to expand their empire.'
Hamish Haddow, in Chipping Barnet, falsely claimed Boris Johnson 'stopped the Ukraine peace talks on request by [Joe] Biden' and said 'every Ukrainian death [is] firmly on Boris'.
Teresa DeSantis, in Chichester, said Boris was 'acting like Zelensky's rent boy, touting for war' while Jack Aaron in Welwyn Hatfield called Putin's use of force in Ukraine 'legitimate' and likened him to Churchill. Malcolm Cupis, in Melksham and Devizes, compared calls for Ukraine refugees in the UK to be exempt from car registration fees to 'ethnic cleansing'.
Peter Morris in Melton and Syston, claimed the war was about 'the US defence budget' while Jack Brookes, in Birmingham Erdington, claimed Boris 'kept the war going'.
Angela Carter-Begbie, who is standing in Queen's Park and Maida Vale, has said 'Putin wants peace – it's the West that don't', that 'Ukraine was horrible to the Russians first' and that 'Putin put his people first'.
John Clark, standing in Bangor Aberconwy, described Putin as 'sane and reasonable'. He has also said supporting Ukraine was 'not in Britain's interests' and replied to Lord Cameron's support for Ukraine by saying: 'You are asset-stripping our country to pay for your globalist friends to expand their empire.'
Hamish Haddow, in Chipping Barnet, falsely claimed Boris Johnson 'stopped the Ukraine peace talks on request by [Joe] Biden' and said 'every Ukrainian death [is] firmly on Boris'.
Teresa DeSantis, in Chichester, said Boris was 'acting like Zelensky's rent boy, touting for war' while Jack Aaron in Welwyn Hatfield called Putin's use of force in Ukraine 'legitimate' and likened him to Churchill. Malcolm Cupis, in Melksham and Devizes, compared calls for Ukraine refugees in the UK to be exempt from car registration fees to 'ethnic cleansing'.
Peter Morris in Melton and Syston, claimed the war was about 'the US defence budget' while Jack Brookes, in Birmingham Erdington, claimed Boris 'kept the war going'.
Angela Carter-Begbie, who is standing in Queen's Park and Maida Vale, has said 'Putin wants peace – it's the West that don't', that 'Ukraine was horrible to the Russians first' and that 'Putin put his people first'.
John Clark, standing in Bangor Aberconwy, described Putin as 'sane and reasonable'. He has also said supporting Ukraine was 'not in Britain's interests' and replied to Lord Cameron's support for Ukraine by saying: 'You are asset-stripping our country to pay for your globalist friends to expand their empire.'
Hamish Haddow, in Chipping Barnet, falsely claimed Boris Johnson 'stopped the Ukraine peace talks on request by [Joe] Biden' and said 'every Ukrainian death [is] firmly on Boris'.
Teresa DeSantis, in Chichester, said Boris was 'acting like Zelensky's rent boy, touting for war' while Jack Aaron in Welwyn Hatfield called Putin's use of force in Ukraine 'legitimate' and likened him to Churchill. Malcolm Cupis, in Melksham and Devizes, compared calls for Ukraine refugees in the UK to be exempt from car registration fees to 'ethnic cleansing'.
Peter Morris in Melton and Syston, claimed the war was about 'the US defence budget' while Jack Brookes, in Birmingham Erdington, claimed Boris 'kept the war going'.
Gove is going. He may well come back and step in to be the temporary leader. Why not? He has already done as much damage as possible. A little more perhaps? Or Boris and Farage as joint leaders.
Even to be in temporary charge you need to be an MP - so it's going to be the most senior minister left standing (dread to think who that could be).
Can't be Cameron, won't be Hunt (if Sunak falls, there's no way he survives), which leaves Cleverly. Could do (and probably will do) a lot worse.
Penny?
Not senior enough.
If things go so badly that Sunak is out, not elected enough.
If Penny is not senior enough, they could ask 30p Lee to come back?
Angela Carter-Begbie, who is standing in Queen's Park and Maida Vale, has said 'Putin wants peace – it's the West that don't', that 'Ukraine was horrible to the Russians first' and that 'Putin put his people first'.
John Clark, standing in Bangor Aberconwy, described Putin as 'sane and reasonable'. He has also said supporting Ukraine was 'not in Britain's interests' and replied to Lord Cameron's support for Ukraine by saying: 'You are asset-stripping our country to pay for your globalist friends to expand their empire.'
Hamish Haddow, in Chipping Barnet, falsely claimed Boris Johnson 'stopped the Ukraine peace talks on request by [Joe] Biden' and said 'every Ukrainian death [is] firmly on Boris'.
Teresa DeSantis, in Chichester, said Boris was 'acting like Zelensky's rent boy, touting for war' while Jack Aaron in Welwyn Hatfield called Putin's use of force in Ukraine 'legitimate' and likened him to Churchill. Malcolm Cupis, in Melksham and Devizes, compared calls for Ukraine refugees in the UK to be exempt from car registration fees to 'ethnic cleansing'.
Peter Morris in Melton and Syston, claimed the war was about 'the US defence budget' while Jack Brookes, in Birmingham Erdington, claimed Boris 'kept the war going'.
Angela Carter-Begbie, who is standing in Queen's Park and Maida Vale, has said 'Putin wants peace – it's the West that don't', that 'Ukraine was horrible to the Russians first' and that 'Putin put his people first'.
John Clark, standing in Bangor Aberconwy, described Putin as 'sane and reasonable'. He has also said supporting Ukraine was 'not in Britain's interests' and replied to Lord Cameron's support for Ukraine by saying: 'You are asset-stripping our country to pay for your globalist friends to expand their empire.'
Hamish Haddow, in Chipping Barnet, falsely claimed Boris Johnson 'stopped the Ukraine peace talks on request by [Joe] Biden' and said 'every Ukrainian death [is] firmly on Boris'.
Teresa DeSantis, in Chichester, said Boris was 'acting like Zelensky's rent boy, touting for war' while Jack Aaron in Welwyn Hatfield called Putin's use of force in Ukraine 'legitimate' and likened him to Churchill. Malcolm Cupis, in Melksham and Devizes, compared calls for Ukraine refugees in the UK to be exempt from car registration fees to 'ethnic cleansing'.
Peter Morris in Melton and Syston, claimed the war was about 'the US defence budget' while Jack Brookes, in Birmingham Erdington, claimed Boris 'kept the war going'.
All these Reform candidates should be interned and I am going to have nightmares about Boris Johnson being a rent boy.
Just aping the GOP basically.
Britain Trump is here and up and running.
Yup, do we really want the UK equivalents of Marjorie Taylor Greene in our parliament?
We.ve got Rayner and Cooper, isnt that the same ?
dearly departed Charles never had a crush on Rayner and Cooper
We could do with Charles returning, it would bring a bit of diversity to the site.
An overwhelmingly right wing message board site needs yet another Tory like a hole in the head. We should be encouraging Communists, Welsh Nationalists and Irish Republicans
What on earth is the point of diverting resources into Sunak's seat?
Even if he stays in the country, barring an amazing turnaround he's not going to be leader for very long after the election, and is very unlikely to have any front-bench role.
History.
Do you really want to be known be known as the only PM who lost his seat?
Angela Carter-Begbie, who is standing in Queen's Park and Maida Vale, has said 'Putin wants peace – it's the West that don't', that 'Ukraine was horrible to the Russians first' and that 'Putin put his people first'.
John Clark, standing in Bangor Aberconwy, described Putin as 'sane and reasonable'. He has also said supporting Ukraine was 'not in Britain's interests' and replied to Lord Cameron's support for Ukraine by saying: 'You are asset-stripping our country to pay for your globalist friends to expand their empire.'
Hamish Haddow, in Chipping Barnet, falsely claimed Boris Johnson 'stopped the Ukraine peace talks on request by [Joe] Biden' and said 'every Ukrainian death [is] firmly on Boris'.
Teresa DeSantis, in Chichester, said Boris was 'acting like Zelensky's rent boy, touting for war' while Jack Aaron in Welwyn Hatfield called Putin's use of force in Ukraine 'legitimate' and likened him to Churchill. Malcolm Cupis, in Melksham and Devizes, compared calls for Ukraine refugees in the UK to be exempt from car registration fees to 'ethnic cleansing'.
Peter Morris in Melton and Syston, claimed the war was about 'the US defence budget' while Jack Brookes, in Birmingham Erdington, claimed Boris 'kept the war going'.
All these Reform candidates should be interned and I am going to have nightmares about Boris Johnson being a rent boy.
Just aping the GOP basically.
Britain Trump is here and up and running.
Yup, do we really want the UK equivalents of Marjorie Taylor Greene in our parliament?
We.ve got Rayner and Cooper, isnt that the same ?
Why does Angela Rayner trigger the right so much? This post is not in any way rational.
Hearing Bridget Phillipson on 'The Rest is Politics' enthusing about the number of working-class people on the Labour front bench, I think there's going to be an awful lot of triggering going on.
Angela Carter-Begbie, who is standing in Queen's Park and Maida Vale, has said 'Putin wants peace – it's the West that don't', that 'Ukraine was horrible to the Russians first' and that 'Putin put his people first'.
John Clark, standing in Bangor Aberconwy, described Putin as 'sane and reasonable'. He has also said supporting Ukraine was 'not in Britain's interests' and replied to Lord Cameron's support for Ukraine by saying: 'You are asset-stripping our country to pay for your globalist friends to expand their empire.'
Hamish Haddow, in Chipping Barnet, falsely claimed Boris Johnson 'stopped the Ukraine peace talks on request by [Joe] Biden' and said 'every Ukrainian death [is] firmly on Boris'.
Teresa DeSantis, in Chichester, said Boris was 'acting like Zelensky's rent boy, touting for war' while Jack Aaron in Welwyn Hatfield called Putin's use of force in Ukraine 'legitimate' and likened him to Churchill. Malcolm Cupis, in Melksham and Devizes, compared calls for Ukraine refugees in the UK to be exempt from car registration fees to 'ethnic cleansing'.
Peter Morris in Melton and Syston, claimed the war was about 'the US defence budget' while Jack Brookes, in Birmingham Erdington, claimed Boris 'kept the war going'.
Angela Carter-Begbie, who is standing in Queen's Park and Maida Vale, has said 'Putin wants peace – it's the West that don't', that 'Ukraine was horrible to the Russians first' and that 'Putin put his people first'.
John Clark, standing in Bangor Aberconwy, described Putin as 'sane and reasonable'. He has also said supporting Ukraine was 'not in Britain's interests' and replied to Lord Cameron's support for Ukraine by saying: 'You are asset-stripping our country to pay for your globalist friends to expand their empire.'
Hamish Haddow, in Chipping Barnet, falsely claimed Boris Johnson 'stopped the Ukraine peace talks on request by [Joe] Biden' and said 'every Ukrainian death [is] firmly on Boris'.
Teresa DeSantis, in Chichester, said Boris was 'acting like Zelensky's rent boy, touting for war' while Jack Aaron in Welwyn Hatfield called Putin's use of force in Ukraine 'legitimate' and likened him to Churchill. Malcolm Cupis, in Melksham and Devizes, compared calls for Ukraine refugees in the UK to be exempt from car registration fees to 'ethnic cleansing'.
Peter Morris in Melton and Syston, claimed the war was about 'the US defence budget' while Jack Brookes, in Birmingham Erdington, claimed Boris 'kept the war going'.
What on earth is the point of diverting resources into Sunak's seat?
Even if he stays in the country, barring an amazing turnaround he's not going to be leader for very long after the election, and is very unlikely to have any front-bench role.
History.
Do you really want to be known be known as the only PM who lost his seat?
in moving resources from other seats to his he could be making history in being the first Tory leader to win less than 100 seats.
O/T Public Service Announcement but on a Sunday morning when I’m at a loose end I find an “old” film to watch, has to be an old classic and very rarely on my normal streaming services but usually BBC or ITV.
This morning I found that The Day of the Jackal is on ITV player and I forgot what an absolute masterpiece it is. Haven’t watched in over 20 odd years but it’s been a wonderful reunion. Not all the Foxes are arseheads. That is all.
Pretty sure Lozza hasn’t fallen too far from the tree of the views of Uncle Edward, it’s just that nunky Eddy is enough of a gentleman not to spew his guts out on social media (or doesn’t know how to work his iPhone).
Angela Carter-Begbie, who is standing in Queen's Park and Maida Vale, has said 'Putin wants peace – it's the West that don't', that 'Ukraine was horrible to the Russians first' and that 'Putin put his people first'.
John Clark, standing in Bangor Aberconwy, described Putin as 'sane and reasonable'. He has also said supporting Ukraine was 'not in Britain's interests' and replied to Lord Cameron's support for Ukraine by saying: 'You are asset-stripping our country to pay for your globalist friends to expand their empire.'
Hamish Haddow, in Chipping Barnet, falsely claimed Boris Johnson 'stopped the Ukraine peace talks on request by [Joe] Biden' and said 'every Ukrainian death [is] firmly on Boris'.
Teresa DeSantis, in Chichester, said Boris was 'acting like Zelensky's rent boy, touting for war' while Jack Aaron in Welwyn Hatfield called Putin's use of force in Ukraine 'legitimate' and likened him to Churchill. Malcolm Cupis, in Melksham and Devizes, compared calls for Ukraine refugees in the UK to be exempt from car registration fees to 'ethnic cleansing'.
Peter Morris in Melton and Syston, claimed the war was about 'the US defence budget' while Jack Brookes, in Birmingham Erdington, claimed Boris 'kept the war going'.
All these Reform candidates should be interned and I am going to have nightmares about Boris Johnson being a rent boy.
Just aping the GOP basically.
Britain Trump is here and up and running.
Yup, do we really want the UK equivalents of Marjorie Taylor Greene in our parliament?
We.ve got Rayner and Cooper, isnt that the same ?
dearly departed Charles never had a crush on Rayner and Cooper
We could do with Charles returning, it would bring a bit of diversity to the site.
An overwhelmingly right wing message board site needs yet another Tory like a hole in the head. We should be encouraging Communists, Welsh Nationalists and Irish Republicans
Dont be silly PB veers left atm, the tone of the board tends to attract people who oppose the government of the day, The more the government fails the less likely it finds people prepared to spend time defending it so they drift off.
Assuming Starmer wins this time next year the board will be drifting rightwards as Starmer racks up failure after fialure.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
The country has only a finite supply of land, it is entirely appropriate that those who own the countries finite supply of land pay their way for the countries operational running costs.
They should be paying their taxes every year, not just on inheritance.
If the land is being used efficiently, it will be able to pay its taxes. If its not, the land will survive and can be sold to someone who will put it to more efficient use.
We tax people's wages too much. We should tax death and land more, wages less.
What on earth is the point of diverting resources into Sunak's seat?
Even if he stays in the country, barring an amazing turnaround he's not going to be leader for very long after the election, and is very unlikely to have any front-bench role.
My personal view is that there will be a by-election in this seat before Christmas if Sunak survives as (whatever he says now) he is not going to do 5 years as an opposition back bencher. So actually if there is going to be a collapse in Tory vote it would be better to lose it now. Imagine winning it at the general election and then losing it in the autumn to the Lib Dem’s or reform on a you don’t want to give Labour an even bigger majority but do you really trust the Tories ticket.
The headlines today are terrible for the Tories (again).
I am really beginning to wonder if this does lead to sub 100 MPs for them, Not my central case, but whereas I was thinking 130 +/- 15, and about 23%, I am wondering if it is now 110 +/- 15 and only 21%,
It's this weekend that postal votes will be done too, a significant chunk of the previous Tory vote. I also think Tories on 110 and 23% of the vote.
Angela Carter-Begbie, who is standing in Queen's Park and Maida Vale, has said 'Putin wants peace – it's the West that don't', that 'Ukraine was horrible to the Russians first' and that 'Putin put his people first'.
John Clark, standing in Bangor Aberconwy, described Putin as 'sane and reasonable'. He has also said supporting Ukraine was 'not in Britain's interests' and replied to Lord Cameron's support for Ukraine by saying: 'You are asset-stripping our country to pay for your globalist friends to expand their empire.'
Hamish Haddow, in Chipping Barnet, falsely claimed Boris Johnson 'stopped the Ukraine peace talks on request by [Joe] Biden' and said 'every Ukrainian death [is] firmly on Boris'.
Teresa DeSantis, in Chichester, said Boris was 'acting like Zelensky's rent boy, touting for war' while Jack Aaron in Welwyn Hatfield called Putin's use of force in Ukraine 'legitimate' and likened him to Churchill. Malcolm Cupis, in Melksham and Devizes, compared calls for Ukraine refugees in the UK to be exempt from car registration fees to 'ethnic cleansing'.
Peter Morris in Melton and Syston, claimed the war was about 'the US defence budget' while Jack Brookes, in Birmingham Erdington, claimed Boris 'kept the war going'.
O/T Public Service Announcement but on a Sunday morning when I’m at a loose end I find an “old” film to watch, has to be an old classic and very rarely on my normal streaming services but usually BBC or ITV.
This morning I found that The Day of the Jackal is on ITV player and I forgot what an absolute masterpiece it is. Haven’t watched in over 20 odd years but it’s been a wonderful reunion. Not all the Foxes are arseheads. That is all.
Pretty sure Lozza hasn’t fallen too far from the tree of the views of Uncle Edward, it’s just that nunky Eddy is enough of a gentleman not to spew his guts out on social media (or doesn’t know how to work his iPhone).
Lozza has endorsed Nige.
All reclaimers please lend your support to the only party and the only man @Nigel_Farage which is offering hope in the coming election.
The headlines today are terrible for the Tories (again).
I am really beginning to wonder if this does lead to sub 100 MPs for them, Not my central case, but whereas I was thinking 130 +/- 15, and about 23%, I am wondering if it is now 110 +/- 15 and only 21%,
150 I would say.
I must admit 150 seems my ball park, esp given NF's appeasement slip regarding Russia, their vote will haemorrhage in 5 directions in most cases (Lab, LD, Ref, Nat/GreeN or dont vote) which should save quite a few in the shires....
I believe you are right. 150 is less than half than they obtained in the last election. Local elections are not not the same etc as general. However Labour did not do that well in the last local one. And Farage ,the betting scandal and Rishi bucking off from France early will not change the majority of Tory voters.Irrespective of what the polls say.
A vote for Reform is a vote for Putin, ergo anyone voting for them is a UK hating traitor.
This is really not helpful. We had years of talk about "traitors" from the Brexit frothers from 2016 and it contributed to some pretty serious disfunction in out political system as it filtered all the way to the top.
It's true that anyone voting for Reform is voting for a monumentally thick economic policy and it's also true that Nigel Faragov has some troubling emotional and network ties to the Russian state. I wouldn't trust him with anything secret. Actually, I wouldn't even trust him to stand still and hold my dog's lead while I nipped into the shop.
But voting for him doesn't make you traitor. It's easily explained just by being very, very stupid.
Gove is going. He may well come back and step in to be the temporary leader. Why not? He has already done as much damage as possible. A little more perhaps? Or Boris and Farage as joint leaders.
Even to be in temporary charge you need to be an MP - so it's going to be the most senior minister left standing (dread to think who that could be).
Steve Baker. Is he staying.
He wont hold Wycombe
Although Wycombe is a seat which has been Conservative since 1951, and which Steve Baker held with majorities of up to 14K since 2010, on paper his current 4,214 majority is too small to survive.
However the Labour Party in the seat has been historically very fractious, and the previous Labour candidate, Khalil Ahmad, is standing for the Workers Party and there is a large ethnic minority base which he can appeal to. There are also nine candidates so the ballot is very crowded,
Meanwhile the Lib Dem vote is not very squeezable and would not be enough to get Labour over the line anyway.
I think this is going to be much closer than similar marginals, and I could even see Baker surviving by a miniscule margin. As ever DYOR, but 1/7 Labour odds seem over done and although Baker at 7/2 is not massive value, it may not be unrealistic.
Angela Carter-Begbie, who is standing in Queen's Park and Maida Vale, has said 'Putin wants peace – it's the West that don't', that 'Ukraine was horrible to the Russians first' and that 'Putin put his people first'.
John Clark, standing in Bangor Aberconwy, described Putin as 'sane and reasonable'. He has also said supporting Ukraine was 'not in Britain's interests' and replied to Lord Cameron's support for Ukraine by saying: 'You are asset-stripping our country to pay for your globalist friends to expand their empire.'
Hamish Haddow, in Chipping Barnet, falsely claimed Boris Johnson 'stopped the Ukraine peace talks on request by [Joe] Biden' and said 'every Ukrainian death [is] firmly on Boris'.
Teresa DeSantis, in Chichester, said Boris was 'acting like Zelensky's rent boy, touting for war' while Jack Aaron in Welwyn Hatfield called Putin's use of force in Ukraine 'legitimate' and likened him to Churchill. Malcolm Cupis, in Melksham and Devizes, compared calls for Ukraine refugees in the UK to be exempt from car registration fees to 'ethnic cleansing'.
Peter Morris in Melton and Syston, claimed the war was about 'the US defence budget' while Jack Brookes, in Birmingham Erdington, claimed Boris 'kept the war going'.
O/T Public Service Announcement but on a Sunday morning when I’m at a loose end I find an “old” film to watch, has to be an old classic and very rarely on my normal streaming services but usually BBC or ITV.
This morning I found that The Day of the Jackal is on ITV player and I forgot what an absolute masterpiece it is. Haven’t watched in over 20 odd years but it’s been a wonderful reunion. Not all the Foxes are arseheads. That is all.
Pretty sure Lozza hasn’t fallen too far from the tree of the views of Uncle Edward, it’s just that nunky Eddy is enough of a gentleman not to spew his guts out on social media (or doesn’t know how to work his iPhone).
Lozza has endorsed Nige.
All reclaimers please lend your support to the only party and the only man @Nigel_Farage which is offering hope in the coming election.
Angela Carter-Begbie, who is standing in Queen's Park and Maida Vale, has said 'Putin wants peace – it's the West that don't', that 'Ukraine was horrible to the Russians first' and that 'Putin put his people first'.
John Clark, standing in Bangor Aberconwy, described Putin as 'sane and reasonable'. He has also said supporting Ukraine was 'not in Britain's interests' and replied to Lord Cameron's support for Ukraine by saying: 'You are asset-stripping our country to pay for your globalist friends to expand their empire.'
Hamish Haddow, in Chipping Barnet, falsely claimed Boris Johnson 'stopped the Ukraine peace talks on request by [Joe] Biden' and said 'every Ukrainian death [is] firmly on Boris'.
Teresa DeSantis, in Chichester, said Boris was 'acting like Zelensky's rent boy, touting for war' while Jack Aaron in Welwyn Hatfield called Putin's use of force in Ukraine 'legitimate' and likened him to Churchill. Malcolm Cupis, in Melksham and Devizes, compared calls for Ukraine refugees in the UK to be exempt from car registration fees to 'ethnic cleansing'.
Peter Morris in Melton and Syston, claimed the war was about 'the US defence budget' while Jack Brookes, in Birmingham Erdington, claimed Boris 'kept the war going'.
Angela Carter-Begbie, who is standing in Queen's Park and Maida Vale, has said 'Putin wants peace – it's the West that don't', that 'Ukraine was horrible to the Russians first' and that 'Putin put his people first'.
John Clark, standing in Bangor Aberconwy, described Putin as 'sane and reasonable'. He has also said supporting Ukraine was 'not in Britain's interests' and replied to Lord Cameron's support for Ukraine by saying: 'You are asset-stripping our country to pay for your globalist friends to expand their empire.'
Hamish Haddow, in Chipping Barnet, falsely claimed Boris Johnson 'stopped the Ukraine peace talks on request by [Joe] Biden' and said 'every Ukrainian death [is] firmly on Boris'.
Teresa DeSantis, in Chichester, said Boris was 'acting like Zelensky's rent boy, touting for war' while Jack Aaron in Welwyn Hatfield called Putin's use of force in Ukraine 'legitimate' and likened him to Churchill. Malcolm Cupis, in Melksham and Devizes, compared calls for Ukraine refugees in the UK to be exempt from car registration fees to 'ethnic cleansing'.
Peter Morris in Melton and Syston, claimed the war was about 'the US defence budget' while Jack Brookes, in Birmingham Erdington, claimed Boris 'kept the war going'.
Angela Carter-Begbie, who is standing in Queen's Park and Maida Vale, has said 'Putin wants peace – it's the West that don't', that 'Ukraine was horrible to the Russians first' and that 'Putin put his people first'.
John Clark, standing in Bangor Aberconwy, described Putin as 'sane and reasonable'. He has also said supporting Ukraine was 'not in Britain's interests' and replied to Lord Cameron's support for Ukraine by saying: 'You are asset-stripping our country to pay for your globalist friends to expand their empire.'
Hamish Haddow, in Chipping Barnet, falsely claimed Boris Johnson 'stopped the Ukraine peace talks on request by [Joe] Biden' and said 'every Ukrainian death [is] firmly on Boris'.
Teresa DeSantis, in Chichester, said Boris was 'acting like Zelensky's rent boy, touting for war' while Jack Aaron in Welwyn Hatfield called Putin's use of force in Ukraine 'legitimate' and likened him to Churchill. Malcolm Cupis, in Melksham and Devizes, compared calls for Ukraine refugees in the UK to be exempt from car registration fees to 'ethnic cleansing'.
Peter Morris in Melton and Syston, claimed the war was about 'the US defence budget' while Jack Brookes, in Birmingham Erdington, claimed Boris 'kept the war going'.
All these Reform candidates should be interned and I am going to have nightmares about Boris Johnson being a rent boy.
Just aping the GOP basically.
Britain Trump is here and up and running.
Yup, do we really want the UK equivalents of Marjorie Taylor Greene in our parliament?
We.ve got Rayner and Cooper, isnt that the same ?
dearly departed Charles never had a crush on Rayner and Cooper
We could do with Charles returning, it would bring a bit of diversity to the site.
An overwhelmingly right wing message board site needs yet another Tory like a hole in the head. We should be encouraging Communists, Welsh Nationalists and Irish Republicans
Dont be silly PB veers left atm, the tone of the board tends to attract people who oppose the government of the day, The more the government fails the less likely it finds people prepared to spend time defending it so they drift off.
Assuming Starmer wins this time next year the board will be drifting rightwards as Starmer racks up failure after fialure.
You conflate being right wing with being a defender of this government.You, Leon, HYUFD, MrEDfordshire, MarqueeMark, CasinoRoyale…the right is very well represented on here. We might miss Charles’ patrician take but his overall viewpoints are well represented.
What is completely missing, ironically, is the mythical “SKS Fan” of BJO and others’ imagination. I don’t see any enthusiasm for him bar a “he’ll do” reaction by centre to leftish posters. That’s my attitude and I think one shared by many on here and in the country. It’s hard to warm to the guy but he’s a serious bloke in serious times.
O/T Public Service Announcement but on a Sunday morning when I’m at a loose end I find an “old” film to watch, has to be an old classic and very rarely on my normal streaming services but usually BBC or ITV.
This morning I found that The Day of the Jackal is on ITV player and I forgot what an absolute masterpiece it is. Haven’t watched in over 20 odd years but it’s been a wonderful reunion. Not all the Foxes are arseheads. That is all.
Pretty sure Lozza hasn’t fallen too far from the tree of the views of Uncle Edward, it’s just that nunky Eddy is enough of a gentleman not to spew his guts out on social media (or doesn’t know how to work his iPhone).
Lozza has endorsed Nige.
All reclaimers please lend your support to the only party and the only man @Nigel_Farage which is offering hope in the coming election.
Comments
Who will be the last two Tories left standing ? Perhaps Penny and Tom Tugendhat.
Can't say I'm attracted by the 2/1 on Labour.
Morning all
I don't think that will happen but if I was @Sandpit I would be a bit nervous!
In 2019 the Lib Dems following the general election had the deputy leader and the president of the party being joint leader before the election of the leader in 2020.
Angela Carter-Begbie, who is standing in Queen's Park and Maida Vale, has said 'Putin wants peace – it's the West that don't', that 'Ukraine was horrible to the Russians first' and that 'Putin put his people first'.
John Clark, standing in Bangor Aberconwy, described Putin as 'sane and reasonable'. He has also said supporting Ukraine was 'not in Britain's interests' and replied to Lord Cameron's support for Ukraine by saying: 'You are asset-stripping our country to pay for your globalist friends to expand their empire.'
Hamish Haddow, in Chipping Barnet, falsely claimed Boris Johnson 'stopped the Ukraine peace talks on request by [Joe] Biden' and said 'every Ukrainian death [is] firmly on Boris'.
Teresa DeSantis, in Chichester, said Boris was 'acting like Zelensky's rent boy, touting for war' while Jack Aaron in Welwyn Hatfield called Putin's use of force in Ukraine 'legitimate' and likened him to Churchill. Malcolm Cupis, in Melksham and Devizes, compared calls for Ukraine refugees in the UK to be exempt from car registration fees to 'ethnic cleansing'.
Peter Morris in Melton and Syston, claimed the war was about 'the US defence budget' while Jack Brookes, in Birmingham Erdington, claimed Boris 'kept the war going'.
https://x.com/PickardJE/status/1804779375872663622/
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13558707/How-one-Nigel-Farages-prominent-supporters-repeatedly-called-closer-ties-Kremlin.html
All these Reform candidates should be interned and I am going to have nightmares about Boris Johnson being a rent boy.
That he didn't run in that by-election suggests that he was well aware of the level of public anticipation there would have been for such a deserved fate.
Then there's also the question of which Tory peers defect to Reforn, the LD's, and Binface's grouping.
Britain Trump is here and up and running.
‘Some 62% of people questioned also believe Brexit has contributed to higher prices in shops, against 8% who think that it has had the opposite effect.’ https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/article/2024/jun/22/starmer-growth-plan-doomed-access-eu-markets-economists
There’s also a quote in there (from a senior EU diplomat so you Leavers can airily dismiss it out of hand): ‘“We used to be a far more effective trading nation than we are now. The cause of that is Brexit. There is no getting away from that.”’
Brexit is irreparably damaged, holed below the waterline. Business hates it. A majority of the under 60s hate it. It is tarnished by the corruption divisiveness and malevolence of the outgoing government. The fevered promises of the Leave campaigns haven’t materialised.
While the Boomers are still about in sufficient numbers we will have to tip toe back to the EU. But as the inevitable happens reality, the demands of business and of those too young to vote in the referendum and those who voted to Remain will become too big to ignore. Boomer concerns will fade away, like keeping the pound in the age of Apple Pay. There aren’t enough sovereigntists wibbling about unelected EU bureaucrats to outweigh that - perhaps the full horror for them is if it becomes the settled view in the country that things were better, with better outcomes for more people, when we were in the EU. I don’t think we’re a million miles from that. The argument ‘yeah it’s shit, but it’s our shit’ isn’t particularly persuasive, is it?
Thankfully you are also wrong. A Starmer victory will make Rejoin less rather than more likely.
This morning I found that The Day of the Jackal is on ITV player and I forgot what an absolute masterpiece it is. Haven’t watched in over 20 odd years but it’s been a wonderful reunion. Not all the Foxes are arseheads. That is all.
I am really beginning to wonder if this does lead to sub 100 MPs for them, Not my central case, but whereas I was thinking 130 +/- 15, and about 23%, I am wondering if it is now 110 +/- 15 and only 21%,
If things go so badly that Sunak is out, not elected enough.
One thing we're not factoring in yet - because of all the uncertainty - is the dramatic change in political mood there will be with a new government, particularly if the Tories are reduced to a rump and tearing themselves apart over their future. Fifty discredited Tories trying to make a fuss about regulatory and trade alignment with the EU aren't going to get much of a hearing.
Even if he stays in the country, barring an amazing turnaround he's not going to be leader for very long after the election, and is very unlikely to have any front-bench role.
You'd better know when to hold 'em
Know when to fold 'em
Know when to walk away
And know when to run.
A hat tip to whoever made that choice
Do you really want to be known be known as the only PM who lost his seat?
In a week and a half will we all be asking - 'Were you up for Aberdeenshire North and Moray East?'
(Probably not - but they could do a lot worse)
Assuming Starmer wins this time next year the board will be drifting rightwards as Starmer racks up failure after fialure.
They should be paying their taxes every year, not just on inheritance.
If the land is being used efficiently, it will be able to pay its taxes. If its not, the land will survive and can be sold to someone who will put it to more efficient use.
We tax people's wages too much. We should tax death and land more, wages less.
Rather like the Conservatives will be on July 5th, I am "assessing my losses".
All reclaimers please lend your support to the only party and the only man @Nigel_Farage which is offering hope in the coming election.
The @thereclaimparty stands with @reformparty_uk in July. 🇬🇧
https://x.com/LozzaFox/status/1804516598851457229
Churchill interned people like this during WWII.
However the Labour Party in the seat has been historically very fractious, and the previous Labour candidate, Khalil Ahmad, is standing for the Workers Party and there is a large ethnic minority base which he can appeal to. There are also nine candidates so the ballot is very crowded,
Meanwhile the Lib Dem vote is not very squeezable and would not be enough to get Labour over the line anyway.
I think this is going to be much closer than similar marginals, and I could even see Baker surviving by a miniscule margin. As ever DYOR, but 1/7 Labour odds seem over done and although Baker at 7/2 is not massive value, it may not be unrealistic.
I’m beginning to worry about his IQ.
Not sure if its the former or the latter guiding the recent posts.
What is completely missing, ironically, is the mythical “SKS Fan” of BJO and others’ imagination. I don’t see any enthusiasm for him bar a “he’ll do” reaction by centre to leftish posters. That’s my attitude and I think one shared by many on here and in the country. It’s hard to warm to the guy but he’s a serious bloke in serious times.