Imagine the beautiful career I could have - maybe travelling the world for free or something - if only I had a higher IQ
I’ll just have to make do with Vannes. It all looks like this - except what you can’t see right behind me is a beautiful harbour lined with restaurants selling great seafood
High density housing, a coherent but quirky style, walkable town centre, bustling on-street hospitality.
Imagine the beautiful career I could have - maybe travelling the world for free or something - if only I had a higher IQ
I’ll just have to make do with Vannes. It all looks like this - except what you can’t see right behind me is a beautiful harbour lined with restaurants selling great seafood
One serious question on this - are places like this protected by the "anti-terrorist barriers", many of our city centres are spending millions on?
York has been a particular exercise in inconsistency and idiocy.
I have a friend who had the end broken off his elbow bone (one of them) a fortnight ago because some dozy wazzock in a 4x4 swapped lanes straight into him without looking after driving the best part of 200m across Trent Bridge in Nottingham alongside each other in separate lanes. May be a photo next week.
Trent Bridge has Jersey Barriers on it that turn the carriageway into a wider version of the Monaco Grans Prix race track, so rather than terrorists mowing down pedestrians once every 200 years, we have idiot drivers mowing down people riding cycles who are denied escape routes.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Precisely so.
I don’t think so, because I am sure You underestimate how Labour dine out on this current government shambles over time. This is the platinum version of 1974-1979. This is the most infamous and well earned kick out of government ever. Lying. Sleaze. Food costs. Mortgages. Sewage. When I needed a dentist it wasn’t there. Split party, awful PMs. There is so much here that is going to be remembered long into the future and continue to help Labour re-election chances in the General Elections to come. When trust, competence is lost, it’s a long time of hard work to get it back.
After the election of Jeremy Corbyn in 2015, even now in this election 9 years later Labour are struggling with the damage of it, so you should easily imagine how this outgoing government will still be remembered in 10 years time and longer.
Plus the fact Hunt and Sunak have fixed it that Labour have the UKs highest tax take since Second World War to benefit from, and economic growth is going to happen too in next parliament, lots of money coming in, A Labour tax cutting budget on eve of next election shoots all the Tory foxes doesn’t it?
Also Labour can operate with all the Brexit powers, they have more power and opportunity in next 10 years+ of parliamentary dominance free from EU membership than any government in last 65 years, except this current one that lost its opportunity due to covid, war and internal infighting.
Noteworthy Labour has given up on their "Making Brexit work" rhetoric, while the Tories are completely silent on their one supposed achievement: "get Brexit done".
Hardly anyone thinks Brexit does work. Which is a problem. It will need to be addressed at some point.
You are thinking in an “over all” way, overall Brexit is not good. It certainly makes us economically poorer is the argument that seems to be winning.
Yet, imagine if we were still in it. Would that cause more or less issues for Labour in the next ten years?
Its not that sovereignty and control was taken back and given to the British people - only to the extent they elect a government as normal they actually enjoy any of it - an awful lot of power and control came back from EU treaties and courts to the cabinet table at number 10, straight into the hands of the coterie around the British PM. In that narrow way, it’s a clear Brexit dividend for the incoming Labour government. Power and control and freedom former PMs and administrations could only dream about. Tory Brexit has empowered Starmer’s government with this.
There are many interpretations of this sovereignty thing but none of them posit that the British people are sovereign. Sovereignty lies with the Crown in Parliament. Which is why the centralisation you refer to occurs. A large part of my Europhilia comes from the lack of checks and balances in the British constitution. For all the bleating we got on here last week about the SC it has nowhere near the power of similarly named bodies in other countries. It cannot overturn an Act of Parliament.
I agree. Whilst we can have AV threads and fun discussing PR systems, it’s not the same thing as centralisation and concentration of power, and lack of checks and balances. When it comes to Brexit and the timing of it, it’s swings and roundabouts for the incoming Labour era. Is there any control brexit brought back from EU treaties and courts, that didn’t slip into the back pocket of the UK PM to use on a whim? Starmer is about to obtain the sort of power to reshape our country which Lady Thatcher, Lord Cameron and Blair could only dream of.
If some of the extrapolation of the current polls is right, the Tories will win something between 75 and 150 seats.
But where are these seats ?
In the Shires.
Plus the usual suspects in the Surrey Hills and places like it.
Which constituencies do you have in mind?
Surrey is turning increasingly LibDem
Dorking. Walton and Weybrige. Waverley. Epsom.Esher that could go Lib Dem. East Surrey. Shy Tory country. Say they will vote one way and do the opposite.
As I said I happy to be corrected. After the election we will have definitive answer. It will be revealing to see exactly how these and all the rest around the country voted.
OK here is my list for Surrey:
It will be a disappointing night if the LDs don't win:
Walton and Esher Guildford Godalming and Ash
I believe they will also win:
Dorking and Horley Woking
I believe they can also win (but that would be a joyous night):
Surrey Heath
There are others like:
Epsom and Ewell Farnham and Bordon etc
These can fall, but in all honesty it would require a complete Tory meltdown and the LD vote being higher than it currently is as there isn't enough of a local Labour squeeze message in these I suspect.
A warning to punters - Just to make clear although I am in Guildford I am playing a lowly role this time so don't really have any inside info.
Here is my list of possible Lib Dem seats in decreasing order of probability. The probability weighted total is 52 seats.
Bath 100% Kingston 100% Orkney and Shetland 100% Oxford West and Abingdon 100% Richmond Park 100% St Albans 100% Twickenham 100% St Ives 98% Cheadle 95% Winchester 95% Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross 95% Edinburgh West 95% Fife North East 95% Westmorland and Lonsdale 95% Esher and Walton 93% Cheltenham 93% Carshalton and Wallington 91% Eastbourne 91% Hazel Grove 91% Taunton and Wellington 91% Wimbledon 90% Guildford 89% Shropshire North 89% Lewes 85% Glastonbury and Somerton 83% Woking 83% Wokingham 83% Eastleigh 83% Norfolk North 83% Harrogate and Knaresborough 82% Cambridgeshire South 81% Chesham and Amersham 76% Cotswolds South 76% Godalming and Ash 76% Honiton and Sidmouth 76% Wells and Mendip Hills 75% Devon South 71% Dorking and Horley 71% Dorset West 71% Yeovil 71% Cornwall North 70% Thornbury and Yate 69% Mid Dunbartonshire 69% Bicester and Woodstock 66% Devon North 64% Chelmsford 62% Chippenham 62% Henley and Thame 61% Newbury 60% Tunbridge Wells 60% St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire 58% Surrey Heath 57% Dorset Mid and Poole North 57% Romsey and Southampton North 56% Harpenden and Berkhamsted 56% Didcot and Wantage 56% Sutton and Cheam 56% Frome and East Somerset 53% Chichester 50% Farnham and Bordon 50% Witney 49% Ely and East Cambridgeshire 48% Newton Abbot 47% Torbay 45% Stratford on Avon 43% Mid Sussex 41% Maidenhead 40% Epsom and Ewell 35% Melksham and Devises 34% Horsham 34% Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe 31% Tiverton and Minehead 25% Tewksbury 24% West Dorset 10% Hampshire North East 10% Dorset North 5% Cotswolds North 5% Hertfordshire South West 5% Fareham and Waterloo 1%
Total possible gains 52
Its basically naice places to live.
Nimbyland, UK ?
If I put my MMGA hat on, that is all "bits of the South", or "bits of the South located in the North", plus a few "bits of the South in Scotland, with extra hills or islands". Apologies to Wales if I missed any.
Not O&S or CSER - that's more to do with the tradition from the crofting/smallholding vote combined with the Gladstonian reforms.
Imagine the beautiful career I could have - maybe travelling the world for free or something - if only I had a higher IQ
I’ll just have to make do with Vannes. It all looks like this - except what you can’t see right behind me is a beautiful harbour lined with restaurants selling great seafood
One serious question on this - are places like this protected by the "anti-terrorist barriers", many of our city centres are spending millions on?
York has been a particular exercise in inconsistency and idiocy.
I have a friend who had the end broken off his elbow bone (one of them) a fortnight ago because some dozy wazzock in a 4x4 swapped lanes straight into him without looking after driving the best part of 200m across Trent Bridge in Nottingham alongside each other in separate lanes. May be a photo next week.
Trent Bridge has Jersey Barriers on it that turn the carriageway into a wider version of the Monaco Grans Prix race track, so rather than terrorists mowing down pedestrians once every 200 years, we have idiot drivers mowing down people riding cycles.
Edinburgh is spoiled by temporary anti-terror infrastructure too, particularly on the Royal Mile and the Mound.
Daily Mail says Priti Patel is the likely 'unity' candidate left standing
Please no. What a unpleasant person. Please God no.
She would make an excellent post-election leader for the Tories. This is the time that all the crazies come out. The real leader is still 5 to 7 years away...
You mean a real leader that embraces centrist realism to get elected, like, um, the current leader.
Go ahead and put Truss or Braverman or JRM in as LOTO. Be my guest. I suspect you will eventually have an Erich Honecker "moment" and demand that we need a more right wing electorate...
We've had a few Tory leaders on the right. Some of them have failed to win elections. None of them has ever subjected the party to the nuclear annihilation we're currently witnessing. 'The grown ups' own this.
If you fail to see the hand of Truss in the current difficulty the Conservative Party is in we can’t help you. If that failure is replicated within the party then it’s beyond salvation.
I don't fail to see it. Of course the crashing and burning of Truss was awful for the Tories. But nobody (except the electors of South West Norfolk) is voting for another 5 years of Truss - they're deciding if they want 5 more years of Sunak as PM, and Sunak's policy programme being implemented.
He has a policy programme? Huge news. Are they announcing it tomorrow?
Apologies, his lack of policy programme. This is another issue I have with Bev's craving for centrism. Why is anybody so piss-pants excited about KEEPING PUBLIC POLICY THE SAME as it has been for the past 30 years? Do we really want to keep open-door immigration, eye-watering taxes, companies shutting up shop, barren high streets, the eye-watering costs of our futile Net Zero efforts, because it's all so brilliant? Or is it purely another facet of identity politics like remainerism - "I am middle class and therefore I despise right-wingery - it's for people who drive vans. Yes, these policies do seem shit, but I must pretend to understand them because the little people don't understand them."
The British Right squandered its opportunity to smash the centrist consensus when it opted for Liz Truss. The destruction of the nation's pensions is something no one is willing to countenance no matter how dull and uninspiring the alternative. The Truss thing probably won't get another outing for a least forty years. The British Right is now embracing Faragism - an entirely different kettle of fish - which is curiously quite Leftist in many aspects.
Imagine the beautiful career I could have - maybe travelling the world for free or something - if only I had a higher IQ
I’ll just have to make do with Vannes. It all looks like this - except what you can’t see right behind me is a beautiful harbour lined with restaurants selling great seafood
One serious question on this - are places like this protected by the "anti-terrorist barriers", many of our city centres are spending millions on?
York has been a particular exercise in inconsistency and idiocy.
I have a friend who had the end broken off his elbow bone (one of them) a fortnight ago because some dozy wazzock in a 4x4 swapped lanes straight into him without looking after driving the best part of 200m across Trent Bridge in Nottingham alongside each other in separate lanes. May be a photo next week.
Trent Bridge has Jersey Barriers on it that turn the carriageway into a wider version of the Monaco Grans Prix race track, so rather than terrorists mowing down pedestrians once every 200 years, we have idiot drivers mowing down people riding cycles.
Short answer: no
Vannes is delightful. A perfectly preserved medieval town centre - all half timbered and lush - surrounded by big stone ramparts and then quite grand 19th century deveiopments. Plus that lovely harbour and marina
Now I’m off to one of the most famous megalithic sites in the world - not Carnac!
I can also happily report that the only disappointing place in Vannes is the dull cathedral. No noom. The theory holds
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Precisely so.
I don’t think so, because I am sure You underestimate how Labour dine out on this current government shambles over time. This is the platinum version of 1974-1979. This is the most infamous and well earned kick out of government ever. Lying. Sleaze. Food costs. Mortgages. Sewage. When I needed a dentist it wasn’t there. Split party, awful PMs. There is so much here that is going to be remembered long into the future and continue to help Labour re-election chances in the General Elections to come. When trust, competence is lost, it’s a long time of hard work to get it back.
After the election of Jeremy Corbyn in 2015, even now in this election 9 years later Labour are struggling with the damage of it, so you should easily imagine how this outgoing government will still be remembered in 10 years time and longer.
+1
A generation. And the longer the likes of CR, WO, MM, Luckyguy etc inside the tory party deny this, the longer they will be out of power.
For a while the Conservatives need to focus on where they went wrong. Not how they hope Labour will.
What you object to is those who pour cold water on your hope that Labour stays in power for decades, hence the ad hominem.
I'm perfectly aware of how in the toilet the Conservative brand is; if you just scroll up this very same thread, you'll see how I don't hold out much hope for them getting their act together in opposition either.
Nevertheless, I stand by my prediction: I think Labour will have a torrid time in government, they will overplay their hand thinking they have a mandate, whereas in fact they were quite deceitful in keeping shtum to gain office, and suffer fragmentation of their vote in multiple directions.
I think the same thing is coming down the tracks for them as the Conservatives. Just a few years behind.
I think there is a bigger threat from the left than the right. They could have a huge mandate and people will get very frustrated that the country isn't immediately covered in cycle lanes and solar panels, all paid for by a Landlord Tax and CGT on primary residence. Even just the two-child limit will provide a huge headache...
Look at what happened in Scotland. The SNP and Greens were highly aligned on social issues but in the end the abandonment of Green targets ended Yousaf's government. You could imagine 100-200 Labour MPs taking a similar stand.
Casino predicts Greens on 24% upthread as a possible future.
A lot depends on how much attention each of the opposition parties can get to make their criticism of the future Labour government. Which makes the precise details of this election so very important, and why there is so much to play for, even though we mostly believe that Labour will surely win by some distance.
Were the Greens to win more seats than Reform, that would make a difference. The attention the Liberal Democrats will get from the BBC will be much greater if they have ~60 seats, than if they have ~30. For the Tories there are critical thresholds of credibility at 100 and 150 seats.
Thanks. I think I said 15-20%, although I did suggest flipping round the LD and Green scores from 2019.
There's probably a lowish ceiling for radical left-wing politics but it's higher than 8%.
Both of those men come across (to me) as utterly terrified.
Wildly popular (135k views in 2 days?! - not clear how many are from the uk and I doubt even 5% from NW Leics..)
This is very much the future of the British right, I recon.
His falling out with Tice is quite interesting, as are the YT comments.
What on earth is this rubbish? Two hours of Andrew Bridgen rambling on?
I'm pretty convinced that 'subscribers' 'views' and 'comments' on YouTube pages are basically just made up. Clicking on the profile of any commenter, they have no videos, no details and a profile name that is just weird (XYZ123).
I assume it's just Russian bots driving 'engagement' but no one would seriously watch such two hour drivel.
Imagine the beautiful career I could have - maybe travelling the world for free or something - if only I had a higher IQ
I’ll just have to make do with Vannes. It all looks like this - except what you can’t see right behind me is a beautiful harbour lined with restaurants selling great seafood
One serious question on this - are places like this protected by the "anti-terrorist barriers", many of our city centres are spending millions on?
York has been a particular exercise in inconsistency and idiocy.
I have a friend who had the end broken off his elbow bone (one of them) a fortnight ago because some dozy wazzock in a 4x4 swapped lanes straight into him without looking after driving the best part of 200m across Trent Bridge in Nottingham alongside each other in separate lanes. May be a photo next week.
Trent Bridge has Jersey Barriers on it that turn the carriageway into a wider version of the Monaco Grans Prix race track, so rather than terrorists mowing down pedestrians once every 200 years, we have idiot drivers mowing down people riding cycles.
Edinburgh is spoiled by temporary anti-terror infrastructure too, particularly on the Royal Mile and the Mound.
Ditto places like Oxford and Cambridge.
Down here for the bollards they are doing things like putting ultra-bollards in at 1.2m spacings (Why? dunno. Required distance is 1.5m, and 1.2m is no advantage.) and in York they have run the mobility track right up against the side of the pavement corner of buildings, so that sightlines are made as little as possible for wheelchairs, and the streets as dangerous as possible.
It's just nuts.
Like so much in UK urban design, getting it right is a piece of pie, but the authorities just ... won't.
Daily Mail says Priti Patel is the likely 'unity' candidate left standing
Please no. What a unpleasant person. Please God no.
She would make an excellent post-election leader for the Tories. This is the time that all the crazies come out. The real leader is still 5 to 7 years away...
You mean a real leader that embraces centrist realism to get elected, like, um, the current leader.
Go ahead and put Truss or Braverman or JRM in as LOTO. Be my guest. I suspect you will eventually have an Erich Honecker "moment" and demand that we need a more right wing electorate...
We've had a few Tory leaders on the right. Some of them have failed to win elections. None of them has ever subjected the party to the nuclear annihilation we're currently witnessing. 'The grown ups' own this.
If you fail to see the hand of Truss in the current difficulty the Conservative Party is in we can’t help you. If that failure is replicated within the party then it’s beyond salvation.
I don't fail to see it. Of course the crashing and burning of Truss was awful for the Tories. But nobody (except the electors of South West Norfolk) is voting for another 5 years of Truss - they're deciding if they want 5 more years of Sunak as PM, and Sunak's policy programme being implemented.
He has a policy programme? Huge news. Are they announcing it tomorrow?
Apologies, his lack of policy programme. This is another issue I have with Bev's craving for centrism. Why is anybody so piss-pants excited about KEEPING PUBLIC POLICY THE SAME as it has been for the past 30 years? Do we really want to keep open-door immigration, eye-watering taxes, companies shutting up shop, barren high streets, the eye-watering costs of our futile Net Zero efforts, because it's all so brilliant? Or is it purely another facet of identity politics like remainerism - "I am middle class and therefore I despise right-wingery - it's for people who drive vans. Yes, these policies do seem shit, but I must pretend to understand them because the little people don't understand them."
The British Right squandered its opportunity to smash the centrist consensus when it opted for Liz Truss. The destruction of the nation's pensions is something no one is willing to countenance no matter how dull and uninspiring the alternative. The Truss thing probably won't get another outing for a least forty years. The British Right is now embracing Faragism - an entirely different kettle of fish - which is curiously quite Leftist in many aspects.
That's where I think you're wrong - Farage's manifesto was quite orthodox right wing Tory stuff.
As for pension funds, a creative Government needs to broaden the types of investments they can add to their portfolios, and get them behind economic growth, not strangling it. Overvalued commercial property portfolios owned by pension funds are a big factor in the death of the high street too. Why should a shop ever really be empty? The landlord should want to rent it, and the rent should find its true market value. The reason is big investors lying about their balance sheets.
Clutch_Brompton said: So the polls aren't converging - well lets look at the three companies with the best recent records
Verian (ex-Kantar) / Survation / Opinium
Con 21/20/20 Lab 39/41/40 LD 13/12/12 Green 7/6/9 Ref 13/15/16
Look pretty converged to me. So on UNS at the best possible Con figures between those three we get -
Lab 417, Con 134, LD 56, Nats 21, G 1, Oths 21 (Is this the best the Cons can hope for?) That is without any tactical voting or differential swings (both of which are happening).
Time to revise down my estimate of 150 Con seats to 100-12
I would go under 100 if I was you, campaigning yesterday, the Cons response was awful and this in a pretty affluent area
Imagine the beautiful career I could have - maybe travelling the world for free or something - if only I had a higher IQ
I’ll just have to make do with Vannes. It all looks like this - except what you can’t see right behind me is a beautiful harbour lined with restaurants selling great seafood
One serious question on this - are places like this protected by the "anti-terrorist barriers", many of our city centres are spending millions on?
York has been a particular exercise in inconsistency and idiocy.
I have a friend who had the end broken off his elbow bone (one of them) a fortnight ago because some dozy wazzock in a 4x4 swapped lanes straight into him without looking after driving the best part of 200m across Trent Bridge in Nottingham alongside each other in separate lanes. May be a photo next week.
Trent Bridge has Jersey Barriers on it that turn the carriageway into a wider version of the Monaco Grans Prix race track, so rather than terrorists mowing down pedestrians once every 200 years, we have idiot drivers mowing down people riding cycles.
Short answer: no
Vannes is delightful. A perfectly preserved medieval town centre - all half timbered and lush - surrounded by big stone ramparts and then quite grand 19th century deveiopments. Plus that lovely harbour and marina
Now I’m off to one of the most famous megalithic sites in the world - not Carnac!
I can also happily report that the only disappointing place in Vannes is the dull cathedral. No noom. The theory holds
Have you seen anti-terrorist stuff in other places in your perambulations of the European Mainland?
I'm genuinely interested - is this just a UK fixation? I'd expect France to be doing things as a result of the 84 deaths in the Nice lorry attack in 2016? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36800730
Daily Mail says Priti Patel is the likely 'unity' candidate left standing
Please no. What a unpleasant person. Please God no.
She would make an excellent post-election leader for the Tories. This is the time that all the crazies come out. The real leader is still 5 to 7 years away...
You mean a real leader that embraces centrist realism to get elected, like, um, the current leader.
Go ahead and put Truss or Braverman or JRM in as LOTO. Be my guest. I suspect you will eventually have an Erich Honecker "moment" and demand that we need a more right wing electorate...
We've had a few Tory leaders on the right. Some of them have failed to win elections. None of them has ever subjected the party to the nuclear annihilation we're currently witnessing. 'The grown ups' own this.
If you fail to see the hand of Truss in the current difficulty the Conservative Party is in we can’t help you. If that failure is replicated within the party then it’s beyond salvation.
I don't fail to see it. Of course the crashing and burning of Truss was awful for the Tories. But nobody (except the electors of South West Norfolk) is voting for another 5 years of Truss - they're deciding if they want 5 more years of Sunak as PM, and Sunak's policy programme being implemented.
He has a policy programme? Huge news. Are they announcing it tomorrow?
Apologies, his lack of policy programme. This is another issue I have with Bev's craving for centrism. Why is anybody so piss-pants excited about KEEPING PUBLIC POLICY THE SAME as it has been for the past 30 years? Do we really want to keep open-door immigration, eye-watering taxes, companies shutting up shop, barren high streets, the eye-watering costs of our futile Net Zero efforts, because it's all so brilliant? Or is it purely another facet of identity politics like remainerism - "I am middle class and therefore I despise right-wingery - it's for people who drive vans. Yes, these policies do seem shit, but I must pretend to understand them because the little people don't understand them."
The British Right squandered its opportunity to smash the centrist consensus when it opted for Liz Truss. The destruction of the nation's pensions is something no one is willing to countenance no matter how dull and uninspiring the alternative. The Truss thing probably won't get another outing for a least forty years. The British Right is now embracing Faragism - an entirely different kettle of fish - which is curiously quite Leftist in many aspects.
That's where I think you're wrong - Farage's manifesto was quite orthodox right wing Tory stuff.
As for pension funds, a creative Government needs to broaden the types of investments they can add to their portfolios, and get them behind economic growth, not strangling it. Overvalued commercial property portfolios owned by pension funds are a big factor in the death of the high street too. Why should a shop ever really be empty? The landlord should want to rent it, and the rent should find its true market value. The reason is big investors lying about their balance sheets.
Farage’s manifesto proposes £140 billion in extra spending and tax cuts. Is that an orthodox right-wing Tory position? It also nods to conspiracy theories around COVID-19 and the WEF. Is that orthodox Toryism?
Where is the danger for Labour of a fourth quarter attack on how the highest tax taking since Second World War debt has been so lazily frittered away? When things get bad on borrowing and tax increase, governments should get extra careful, not more squanderous.
On this question, you cannot say this has been a good Labour campaign, and Starmer has done well. They have thrown too few punches in the fight.
The U.S., with its huge oil industry was unlikely to have competed with China in subsidising its solar industry over the last decade. But Europe (which provided a lot of the manufacturing technology for China) really ought to have done so.
Chinese solar generation in is up 45% over the last year, and represented 9.7% of all the country's electricity generation in May
Both of those men come across (to me) as utterly terrified.
Wildly popular (135k views in 2 days?! - not clear how many are from the uk and I doubt even 5% from NW Leics..)
This is very much the future of the British right, I recon.
His falling out with Tice is quite interesting, as are the YT comments.
What on earth is this rubbish? Two hours of Andrew Bridgen rambling on?
I'm pretty convinced that 'subscribers' 'views' and 'comments' on YouTube pages are basically just made up. Clicking on the profile of any commenter, they have no videos, no details and a profile name that is just weird (XYZ123).
I assume it's just Russian bots driving 'engagement' but no one would seriously watch such two hour drivel.
YouTube tacks the numbers on aiui. It did for me anyway.
Imagine the beautiful career I could have - maybe travelling the world for free or something - if only I had a higher IQ
I’ll just have to make do with Vannes. It all looks like this - except what you can’t see right behind me is a beautiful harbour lined with restaurants selling great seafood
Was there a few weeks ago. Absolutely gorgeous place
Imagine the beautiful career I could have - maybe travelling the world for free or something - if only I had a higher IQ
I’ll just have to make do with Vannes. It all looks like this - except what you can’t see right behind me is a beautiful harbour lined with restaurants selling great seafood
One serious question on this - are places like this protected by the "anti-terrorist barriers", many of our city centres are spending millions on?
York has been a particular exercise in inconsistency and idiocy.
I have a friend who had the end broken off his elbow bone (one of them) a fortnight ago because some dozy wazzock in a 4x4 swapped lanes straight into him without looking after driving the best part of 200m across Trent Bridge in Nottingham alongside each other in separate lanes. May be a photo next week.
Trent Bridge has Jersey Barriers on it that turn the carriageway into a wider version of the Monaco Grans Prix race track, so rather than terrorists mowing down pedestrians once every 200 years, we have idiot drivers mowing down people riding cycles who are denied escape routes.
To wrap up, here are the Jersey Barriers on Trent Bridge. It's easy to fix - move them right one lane, and create a 2m mobility track each side, and use the concrete barriers to control the motor vehicles. Current law requires Class III mobility scooters to drive up here.
The road only has 35k-40k AADT, so it doesn't exactly need 6 lanes. When it was somewhat restricted for various reasons, tram journeys went up by 4k a day, so some motor traffic can be shifted with gentle persuasion.
Daily Mail says Priti Patel is the likely 'unity' candidate left standing
Please no. What a unpleasant person. Please God no.
She would make an excellent post-election leader for the Tories. This is the time that all the crazies come out. The real leader is still 5 to 7 years away...
You mean a real leader that embraces centrist realism to get elected, like, um, the current leader.
Go ahead and put Truss or Braverman or JRM in as LOTO. Be my guest. I suspect you will eventually have an Erich Honecker "moment" and demand that we need a more right wing electorate...
We've had a few Tory leaders on the right. Some of them have failed to win elections. None of them has ever subjected the party to the nuclear annihilation we're currently witnessing. 'The grown ups' own this.
If you fail to see the hand of Truss in the current difficulty the Conservative Party is in we can’t help you. If that failure is replicated within the party then it’s beyond salvation.
I don't fail to see it. Of course the crashing and burning of Truss was awful for the Tories. But nobody (except the electors of South West Norfolk) is voting for another 5 years of Truss - they're deciding if they want 5 more years of Sunak as PM, and Sunak's policy programme being implemented.
He has a policy programme? Huge news. Are they announcing it tomorrow?
Apologies, his lack of policy programme. This is another issue I have with Bev's craving for centrism. Why is anybody so piss-pants excited about KEEPING PUBLIC POLICY THE SAME as it has been for the past 30 years? Do we really want to keep open-door immigration, eye-watering taxes, companies shutting up shop, barren high streets, the eye-watering costs of our futile Net Zero efforts, because it's all so brilliant? Or is it purely another facet of identity politics like remainerism - "I am middle class and therefore I despise right-wingery - it's for people who drive vans. Yes, these policies do seem shit, but I must pretend to understand them because the little people don't understand them."
The British Right squandered its opportunity to smash the centrist consensus when it opted for Liz Truss. The destruction of the nation's pensions is something no one is willing to countenance no matter how dull and uninspiring the alternative. The Truss thing probably won't get another outing for a least forty years. The British Right is now embracing Faragism - an entirely different kettle of fish - which is curiously quite Leftist in many aspects.
That's where I think you're wrong - Farage's manifesto was quite orthodox right wing Tory stuff.
As for pension funds, a creative Government needs to broaden the types of investments they can add to their portfolios, and get them behind economic growth, not strangling it. Overvalued commercial property portfolios owned by pension funds are a big factor in the death of the high street too. Why should a shop ever really be empty? The landlord should want to rent it, and the rent should find its true market value. The reason is big investors lying about their balance sheets.
Farage’s manifesto proposes £140 billion in extra spending and tax cuts. Is that an orthodox right-wing Tory position? It also nods to conspiracy theories around COVID-19 and the WEF. Is that orthodox Toryism?
To him? Yes. Other orthodox positions include:
Putin is our friend. Sending weapons to Ukraine is a waste of our money. Ukraine should surrender anyway. Better to generate electricity from expensive gas than using our natural resources like wind or solar.
Basically anything that keeps us relying upon or funding Russia is good, anything else is bad.
Given the various reverse ferrets and u turns (anti Brexit, pro Brexit, anti Boris, pro Boris, anti Boris again, pro Truss, Truss, who is she), don’t you think the spineless, principle free diddies deserve a good deal of what’s coming to them?
I think I may be due you an apology
When you opined that Swinney would not accept permanent leadership of the SNP I assumed you were simply out of touch with the events happening in the World.
I see now that you were ahead of the curve with the notion that he won't survive long in post.
Since when have Bromptons been woke? You'd want a fixie or a single speed. The former has the added credential of being illegal if it doesn't have a front brake.
I am focusing on returning a Conservative MP who has proven to be a great constituency MP - and who is one of the Conservatives the Party will need to rally round, listen to and take guidance from in opposing the incoming Labour Government. With people like him in prominence, the Conservatives will again get a hearing. And votes.
Daily Mail says Priti Patel is the likely 'unity' candidate left standing
Please no. What a unpleasant person. Please God no.
She would make an excellent post-election leader for the Tories. This is the time that all the crazies come out. The real leader is still 5 to 7 years away...
You mean a real leader that embraces centrist realism to get elected, like, um, the current leader.
Go ahead and put Truss or Braverman or JRM in as LOTO. Be my guest. I suspect you will eventually have an Erich Honecker "moment" and demand that we need a more right wing electorate...
We've had a few Tory leaders on the right. Some of them have failed to win elections. None of them has ever subjected the party to the nuclear annihilation we're currently witnessing. 'The grown ups' own this.
If you fail to see the hand of Truss in the current difficulty the Conservative Party is in we can’t help you. If that failure is replicated within the party then it’s beyond salvation.
I don't fail to see it. Of course the crashing and burning of Truss was awful for the Tories. But nobody (except the electors of South West Norfolk) is voting for another 5 years of Truss - they're deciding if they want 5 more years of Sunak as PM, and Sunak's policy programme being implemented.
He has a policy programme? Huge news. Are they announcing it tomorrow?
Apologies, his lack of policy programme. This is another issue I have with Bev's craving for centrism. Why is anybody so piss-pants excited about KEEPING PUBLIC POLICY THE SAME as it has been for the past 30 years? Do we really want to keep open-door immigration, eye-watering taxes, companies shutting up shop, barren high streets, the eye-watering costs of our futile Net Zero efforts, because it's all so brilliant? Or is it purely another facet of identity politics like remainerism - "I am middle class and therefore I despise right-wingery - it's for people who drive vans. Yes, these policies do seem shit, but I must pretend to understand them because the little people don't understand them."
The British Right squandered its opportunity to smash the centrist consensus when it opted for Liz Truss. The destruction of the nation's pensions is something no one is willing to countenance no matter how dull and uninspiring the alternative. The Truss thing probably won't get another outing for a least forty years. The British Right is now embracing Faragism - an entirely different kettle of fish - which is curiously quite Leftist in many aspects.
That's where I think you're wrong - Farage's manifesto was quite orthodox right wing Tory stuff.
As for pension funds, a creative Government needs to broaden the types of investments they can add to their portfolios, and get them behind economic growth, not strangling it. Overvalued commercial property portfolios owned by pension funds are a big factor in the death of the high street too. Why should a shop ever really be empty? The landlord should want to rent it, and the rent should find its true market value. The reason is big investors lying about their balance sheets.
Farage’s manifesto proposes £140 billion in extra spending and tax cuts. Is that an orthodox right-wing Tory position? It also nods to conspiracy theories around COVID-19 and the WEF. Is that orthodox Toryism?
That depends on the balance of additional spending and tax cuts - lumping them all in as one is totally facile.
As for the WEF, the WEF is a pressure group that numbers among its members and supporters some of the world's most powerful corporate and political figures. It publishes its policy documents, and its events are also public, so I don't see how a critique of its agenda is in any way shape or form a 'conspiracy theory'. It strikes me as no different to critiquing the influence of the TUC on Labour Party Policy, or Lord Hester's influence on the Tories. As for Covid-19, I haven't read the 'nods' you describe so I'll need more info.
I am focusing on returning a Conservative MP who has proven to be a great constituency MP - and who is one of the Conservatives the Party will need to rally round, listen to and take guidance from in opposing the incoming Labour Government. With people like him in prominence, the Conservatives will again get a hearing. And votes.
Not if he is a Brexiteer
I think that's exactly the point - and, more generally, what the Party looks like in terms of its right wing's supremacy after its apparently forthcoming slaughter of the MPs.
If some of the extrapolation of the current polls is right, the Tories will win something between 75 and 150 seats.
But where are these seats ?
In the Shires.
Plus the usual suspects in the Surrey Hills and places like it.
Which constituencies do you have in mind?
Surrey is turning increasingly LibDem
Dorking. Walton and Weybrige. Waverley. Epsom.Esher that could go Lib Dem. East Surrey. Shy Tory country. Say they will vote one way and do the opposite.
As I said I happy to be corrected. After the election we will have definitive answer. It will be revealing to see exactly how these and all the rest around the country voted.
OK here is my list for Surrey:
It will be a disappointing night if the LDs don't win:
Walton and Esher Guildford Godalming and Ash
I believe they will also win:
Dorking and Horley Woking
I believe they can also win (but that would be a joyous night):
Surrey Heath
There are others like:
Epsom and Ewell Farnham and Bordon etc
These can fall, but in all honesty it would require a complete Tory meltdown and the LD vote being higher than it currently is as there isn't enough of a local Labour squeeze message in these I suspect.
A warning to punters - Just to make clear although I am in Guildford I am playing a lowly role this time so don't really have any inside info.
Here is my list of possible Lib Dem seats in decreasing order of probability. The probability weighted total is 52 seats.
Bath 100% Kingston 100% Orkney and Shetland 100% Oxford West and Abingdon 100% Richmond Park 100% St Albans 100% Twickenham 100% St Ives 98% Cheadle 95% Winchester 95% Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross 95% Edinburgh West 95% Fife North East 95% Westmorland and Lonsdale 95% Esher and Walton 93% Cheltenham 93% Carshalton and Wallington 91% Eastbourne 91% Hazel Grove 91% Taunton and Wellington 91% Wimbledon 90% Guildford 89% Shropshire North 89% Lewes 85% Glastonbury and Somerton 83% Woking 83% Wokingham 83% Eastleigh 83% Norfolk North 83% Harrogate and Knaresborough 82% Cambridgeshire South 81% Chesham and Amersham 76% Cotswolds South 76% Godalming and Ash 76% Honiton and Sidmouth 76% Wells and Mendip Hills 75% Devon South 71% Dorking and Horley 71% Dorset West 71% Yeovil 71% Cornwall North 70% Thornbury and Yate 69% Mid Dunbartonshire 69% Bicester and Woodstock 66% Devon North 64% Chelmsford 62% Chippenham 62% Henley and Thame 61% Newbury 60% Tunbridge Wells 60% St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire 58% Surrey Heath 57% Dorset Mid and Poole North 57% Romsey and Southampton North 56% Harpenden and Berkhamsted 56% Didcot and Wantage 56% Sutton and Cheam 56% Frome and East Somerset 53% Chichester 50% Farnham and Bordon 50% Witney 49% Ely and East Cambridgeshire 48% Newton Abbot 47% Torbay 45% Stratford on Avon 43% Mid Sussex 41% Maidenhead 40% Epsom and Ewell 35% Melksham and Devises 34% Horsham 34% Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe 31% Tiverton and Minehead 25% Tewksbury 24% West Dorset 10% Hampshire North East 10% Dorset North 5% Cotswolds North 5% Hertfordshire South West 5% Fareham and Waterloo 1%
Total possible gains 52
Devon South and Devon North both too high a %.
To expand a little...
40% of the South Devon seat is Brixham and surrounding area. We have heard from sources that the LibDems are putting much less effort into this area as the response has been "poor". The voting there was almost North Korean levels of support for the Conservatives from some boxes in 2019. The Conservative MP/candidate has secured £25m to upgrade the harbour and another £1m to improve the central car park. This is well known. All residents also had a letter just before the end of Parliament about how he was holding South West Water's feet to the fire about the polluted water outbreak in Brixham. Worked closely with the trawlermen too - been out on the boats with them.
Now, the LibDems finding it difficult doesn't mean that Reform might not be a factor there - but so far, only seen one area of leafletting and no canvassing. No posters. Our suppport has been holding up well.
I doubt the LibDems in South Devon would put their chances at 71%. The Labour campaign has been under the radar/non-existent (considering they came second here in 2017) but there is also a Green. The LibDems are going to have to mop up a big chunk of both their support to win this seat in the remaining 60% available outside the Brixham area.
On Devon North, I understand Selaine Saxby was also a well-regarded local MP who is standing again. She had a a majority last time of nearly 15,000.
I think incumbency is a significant factor. (Unless of course they have been a complete dick as an MP.)
You might like to highlight those seats where the previous Conservative MP has stood down. I think they might be more fertile ground for the LibDems.
The U.S., with its huge oil industry was unlikely to have competed with China in subsidising its solar industry over the last decade. But Europe (which provided a lot of the manufacturing technology for China) really ought to have done so.
Chinese solar generation in is up 45% over the last year, and represented 9.7% of all the country's electricity generation in May
Imagine the beautiful career I could have - maybe travelling the world for free or something - if only I had a higher IQ
I’ll just have to make do with Vannes. It all looks like this - except what you can’t see right behind me is a beautiful harbour lined with restaurants selling great seafood
If only we had a decent travel writer in our midst, we wouldn't have to make do with using our imaginations...
We have!
@Dura_Ace provided us with a remarkable report from war torn Ukraine yesterday. A pithy writing style with some thought provoking detail.
Thanks for that note. I missed along with half the posts yesterday. Good and interesting read.
DA should do a modern day version of Day of the Jackal, with the anti hero as an anarcho-Leninist with an unhealthy obsession with car mechanics.
Clutch_Brompton said: So the polls aren't converging - well lets look at the three companies with the best recent records
Verian (ex-Kantar) / Survation / Opinium
Con 21/20/20 Lab 39/41/40 LD 13/12/12 Green 7/6/9 Ref 13/15/16
Look pretty converged to me. So on UNS at the best possible Con figures between those three we get -
Lab 417, Con 134, LD 56, Nats 21, G 1, Oths 21 (Is this the best the Cons can hope for?) That is without any tactical voting or differential swings (both of which are happening).
Time to revise down my estimate of 150 Con seats to 100-12
I would go under 100 if I was you, campaigning yesterday, the Cons response was awful and this in a pretty affluent area
With differing methodologies, should they really converge? Is it not forced and synthetic, not natural?
As one of PBs up and coming psephologists, I don’t use the term herd, I prefer murmuring. Pedantically you could try to argue there is little difference between herd and murmur, they are doing so out of fear, of being the one outstanding on their own, therefore gets eaten. I suggest we over emphasise that fear as a murmur before landing, rather than just standing in herd. They don’t normally stand in a herd, as herds often do, there is extra doing thing, such as landing at once before election, about it.
Random question. Does anyone know why the Spanish national anthem is an instrumental piece, with no words?
Saves arguing about whethe to use Castilian, Eusklaldunak, Catalunyan, Galego etc. etc.
The suggestion on the F1 forum is that there were once words, but they were Franco’s words, so when he departed they kept the same tune but as an instrumental.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
If you swap the GRN share around with LDMs, then yes - possibly.
People forget the reason Labour won three terms last time is because (a) Blair was popular, especially in Middle England, and (b) the economy was doing well and consistently growin.
Those do not apply this time. And we have a nastier cultural edge to everything on top.
However it would be extremely dangerous for the Tories to think they can just carry on with the same policies and hope Labour is hated more than them at the next, or subsequent elections.
They really need to have a long hard think about what they stand for, giving people the opportunity to succeed in their life with minimal state intervention. The constant pandering to pensioners just has to stop.
I hold out precious little hope for the Tories in opposition.
They just have far too many dumb candidates.
Not to mention the officials and advisors in the party. Jeez. The next leader needs to sack everyone.
Jeremy Clarkson as the new Leader With Piers Morgan as is Vice PM.
Clarkson as next leader means we’ll be rejoining the EU.
Having consider the matter carefully, I would prefer Dmitry Rogozin to Piers Morgan as deputy PM.
Imagine the beautiful career I could have - maybe travelling the world for free or something - if only I had a higher IQ
I’ll just have to make do with Vannes. It all looks like this - except what you can’t see right behind me is a beautiful harbour lined with restaurants selling great seafood
If only we had a decent travel writer in our midst, we wouldn't have to make do with using our imaginations...
We have!
@Dura_Ace provided us with a remarkable report from war torn Ukraine yesterday. A pithy writing style with some thought provoking detail.
Thanks for that note. I missed along with half the posts yesterday. Good and interesting read.
DA should do a modern day version of Day of the Jackal, with the anti hero as an anarcho-Leninist with an unhealthy obsession with car mechanics.
Daily Mail says Priti Patel is the likely 'unity' candidate left standing
Please no. What a unpleasant person. Please God no.
She would make an excellent post-election leader for the Tories. This is the time that all the crazies come out. The real leader is still 5 to 7 years away...
You mean a real leader that embraces centrist realism to get elected, like, um, the current leader.
Go ahead and put Truss or Braverman or JRM in as LOTO. Be my guest. I suspect you will eventually have an Erich Honecker "moment" and demand that we need a more right wing electorate...
We've had a few Tory leaders on the right. Some of them have failed to win elections. None of them has ever subjected the party to the nuclear annihilation we're currently witnessing. 'The grown ups' own this.
If you fail to see the hand of Truss in the current difficulty the Conservative Party is in we can’t help you. If that failure is replicated within the party then it’s beyond salvation.
I don't fail to see it. Of course the crashing and burning of Truss was awful for the Tories. But nobody (except the electors of South West Norfolk) is voting for another 5 years of Truss - they're deciding if they want 5 more years of Sunak as PM, and Sunak's policy programme being implemented.
He has a policy programme? Huge news. Are they announcing it tomorrow?
Apologies, his lack of policy programme. This is another issue I have with Bev's craving for centrism. Why is anybody so piss-pants excited about KEEPING PUBLIC POLICY THE SAME as it has been for the past 30 years? Do we really want to keep open-door immigration, eye-watering taxes, companies shutting up shop, barren high streets, the eye-watering costs of our futile Net Zero efforts, because it's all so brilliant? Or is it purely another facet of identity politics like remainerism - "I am middle class and therefore I despise right-wingery - it's for people who drive vans. Yes, these policies do seem shit, but I must pretend to understand them because the little people don't understand them."
The British Right squandered its opportunity to smash the centrist consensus when it opted for Liz Truss. The destruction of the nation's pensions is something no one is willing to countenance no matter how dull and uninspiring the alternative. The Truss thing probably won't get another outing for a least forty years. The British Right is now embracing Faragism - an entirely different kettle of fish - which is curiously quite Leftist in many aspects.
That's where I think you're wrong - Farage's manifesto was quite orthodox right wing Tory stuff.
As for pension funds, a creative Government needs to broaden the types of investments they can add to their portfolios, and get them behind economic growth, not strangling it. Overvalued commercial property portfolios owned by pension funds are a big factor in the death of the high street too. Why should a shop ever really be empty? The landlord should want to rent it, and the rent should find its true market value. The reason is big investors lying about their balance sheets.
Farage’s manifesto proposes £140 billion in extra spending and tax cuts. Is that an orthodox right-wing Tory position? It also nods to conspiracy theories around COVID-19 and the WEF. Is that orthodox Toryism?
That depends on the balance of additional spending and tax cuts - lumping them all in as one is totally facile.
As for the WEF, the WEF is a pressure group that numbers among its members and supporters some of the world's most powerful corporate and political figures. It publishes its policy documents, and its events are also public, so I don't see how a critique of its agenda is in any way shape or form a 'conspiracy theory'. It strikes me as no different to critiquing the influence of the TUC on Labour Party Policy, or Lord Hester's influence on the Tories. As for Covid-19, I haven't read the 'nods' you describe so I'll need more info.
There is a man in my local Facebook group who thinks the WEF is responsible for the "clowncil"'s planting of beech trees that will encourage birds to nest and therefore defecate on his car. All part of the pro-cyclist agenda.
Reform are going for his vote. And will get it.
(WEF is funded by some of the biggest oil companies in the world, so I'm not entirely sure the beech trees are down to them tbh).
Imagine the beautiful career I could have - maybe travelling the world for free or something - if only I had a higher IQ
I’ll just have to make do with Vannes. It all looks like this - except what you can’t see right behind me is a beautiful harbour lined with restaurants selling great seafood
Was there a few weeks ago. Absolutely gorgeous place
What are those funny metal things sticking up on the roof?
Where is the danger for Labour of a fourth quarter attack on how the highest tax taking since Second World War debt has been so lazily frittered away? When things get bad on borrowing and tax increase, governments should get extra careful, not more squanderous.
On this question, you cannot say this has been a good Labour campaign, and Starmer has done well. They have thrown too few punches in the fight.
England went with the Ming vase strategy after scoring against Denmark, would you say ?
I have no real wish to see Sunak lose his seat, I feel he was dealt a poor hand, and the blame lies squarely at the door of Truss and Johnson, if as anticipated they get trounced at the election
As Richi's time in Government (and Parliament and politics) winds down to its ignominious end, I wonder just how badly he has queered the pitch for future leaders of the party and Country
Will they ever select another;
Billionaire?
Party? Yes. Country? Not if they can help it. Even at school he didn't want to mix with the Hoi polloi but the inability to relate to the common man is a definite negative.
Tech-bro?
Party? No. They need a politician, with a common touch. Not another spreadsheet geek. They didn't want him first time round, and gifting him the gig worked out badly. Country? Maybe
Person of Colour?
Party? Yes Country? Yes, although that may depend how many RefUK 'teal shirts' are marching
Non-Christian?
Party? Yes Country? Yes, although the exact flavour and fervour may be a factor
Short-arse with shorter trousers
Party? If they have to Country? Not if they can help it
Biden is (just) ahead in 538's national polling average for the first time, though still has an electoral college disadvantage. He's slightly behind in the Pennsylvania average, and only has a very narrow path to victory.
Biden has lost. He slipped too far behind in the electoral college votes weeks ago. The “he’s a dementia patient not a president” attack line has won over more than enough independents. Trump is getting back in.
Crazy politics everywhere. Voters don’t seem to know what they really want, except that they really want it.
Anybody opining with absolute certainty about the US Presidential election is an idiot. We're still almost five months from the election, and almost anything could happen, not least a health event for one (or both) of the candidates.
Yes call me an idiot.
And yes, when I called the election this early, its on basis of no swans or health emergencies come along, just continue on it’s inevitable current narrative.
But the position Trump has in the college pickups, the Blue Wall, bell weather Ohio, is just too strong at this stage of any election, especially one where what can an incumbent still throw at it, that should actually already be working by now but isn’t?
Isn’t there enough evidence for you the Dem ticket polls stronger down ticket than at the top?
PB certainly needs to switch from its preoccupations with the Popular Vote polling to the college polling, as a narrow PV win for Biden really is curtains for him, is not an idiotic comment from me either, just merely being honest and helpful.
I’m not shrilling for Trump. I don’t like the idea. I think voters in UK and US have gone nuts, but we survived 4 years of Trump before, and will again. And no, none of this “but you will never get him out if he gets back in” nonsense - the security forces and military will remove MAGA from the White House in five years time if they need to.
There. I’ve called it. Both UK and US elections over in betting terms, we know the results. I’m going to play with my Wilbur.
Women's rights to control their reproductive decisions will be a massive driver of turnout in the election. And every Republican from Trump down is on the wrong side of that issue.
Plus every poll of real voters shows the opinion polling to be massively off - the Democrats just do W-A-Y better than the polling says they should.
Abortion favours the Democrats. Immigration and interest rates favour the Republicans.
Trump is consistently ahead in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. That takes him up to 263 EC votes. This is going to be a very tight election.
The polling for the mid-terms was pretty accurate. It's just that a lot of commentators thought that the Republicans would outpeform the polling.
Nevada is however notoriously difficult to poll, because of the dominance of Clark Co (Vegas) and its transient population.
I suspect the Tories last throw is going to be saying screw the courts and trying to get a plane load off to Rwanda knowing it will end up getting blocked and try and use that as a recruiting sergeant
I doubt they’d be allowed to at this stage of an election campaign.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Mr. HYUFD, the farm inheritance thing seems bonkers. Every generation just gets handed a huge bill in cash, but the land itself is essential for the business (and produces something essential for the country as well).
A reason for the farm inheritance exemption was that otherwise farming would, in a generation or two, be run entirely by agribusinesses owned by institutional shareholders.
Imposing a 40% charge on farms and businesses would be stupid, and lead to their just being sold.
Better to reduce the rate of IHT to c.25% across the board, but then to treat all assets equally. Turning farmland into an IHT shelter has driven up the price of land.
Labour are going to serve up some real shit sandwiches in their first budget.
I expect them to be polling in the 20s inside 18 months, and possibly sooner.
The YouGov opinion poll after the European elections in 2019 had shares of: CON 19% LAB 19% LDM 24% GRN 8% BXP 22% It's possible that we will see polls in that ballpark during the next Parliament.
If we think that FPTP is going to throw up a strange result this time, potentially giving Labour a massive landslide majority on just under 40% of the vote, then it could be just a prelude to an even more crazy result in 2029.
Labour could go from 500 seats to 100 in one election.
Precisely so.
I don’t think so, because I am sure You underestimate how Labour dine out on this current government shambles over time. This is the platinum version of 1974-1979. This is the most infamous and well earned kick out of government ever. Lying. Sleaze. Food costs. Mortgages. Sewage. When I needed a dentist it wasn’t there. Split party, awful PMs. There is so much here that is going to be remembered long into the future and continue to help Labour re-election chances in the General Elections to come. When trust, competence is lost, it’s a long time of hard work to get it back.
After the election of Jeremy Corbyn in 2015, even now in this election 9 years later Labour are struggling with the damage of it, so you should easily imagine how this outgoing government will still be remembered in 10 years time and longer.
Plus the fact Hunt and Sunak have fixed it that Labour have the UKs highest tax take since Second World War to benefit from, and economic growth is going to happen too in next parliament, lots of money coming in, A Labour tax cutting budget on eve of next election shoots all the Tory foxes doesn’t it?
Also Labour can operate with all the Brexit powers, they have more power and opportunity in next 10 years+ of parliamentary dominance free from EU membership than any government in last 65 years, except this current one that lost its opportunity due to covid, war and internal infighting.
Noteworthy Labour has given up on their "Making Brexit work" rhetoric, while the Tories are completely silent on their one supposed achievement: "get Brexit done".
Hardly anyone thinks Brexit does work. Which is a problem. It will need to be addressed at some point.
You are thinking in an “over all” way, overall Brexit is not good. It certainly makes us economically poorer is the argument that seems to be winning.
Yet, imagine if we were still in it. Would that cause more or less issues for Labour in the next ten years?
Its not that sovereignty and control was taken back and given to the British people - only to the extent they elect a government as normal they actually enjoy any of it - an awful lot of power and control came back from EU treaties and courts to the cabinet table at number 10, straight into the hands of the coterie around the British PM. In that narrow way, it’s a clear Brexit dividend for the incoming Labour government. Power and control and freedom former PMs and administrations could only dream about. Tory Brexit has empowered Starmer’s government with this.
There are many interpretations of this sovereignty thing but none of them posit that the British people are sovereign. Sovereignty lies with the Crown in Parliament. Which is why the centralisation you refer to occurs. A large part of my Europhilia comes from the lack of checks and balances in the British constitution. For all the bleating we got on here last week about the SC it has nowhere near the power of similarly named bodies in other countries. It cannot overturn an Act of Parliament.
Thinking is changing on that specific point
The Crown-in-Parliament is the dominant part of the operating apparatus
But its authority comes from elsewhere. While the royal sovereignty used to be from the divine right of kings, parliaments’s sovereign is derived from the people
Fundamentally they can’t change the rules of the game without explicit authority of the electorate. That’s why we saw referenda on devolution, electoral reform, Scottish independence, Brexit, etc
If some of the extrapolation of the current polls is right, the Tories will win something between 75 and 150 seats.
But where are these seats ?
In the Shires.
Plus the usual suspects in the Surrey Hills and places like it.
Which constituencies do you have in mind?
Surrey is turning increasingly LibDem
Dorking. Walton and Weybrige. Waverley. Epsom.Esher that could go Lib Dem. East Surrey. Shy Tory country. Say they will vote one way and do the opposite.
As I said I happy to be corrected. After the election we will have definitive answer. It will be revealing to see exactly how these and all the rest around the country voted.
OK here is my list for Surrey:
It will be a disappointing night if the LDs don't win:
Walton and Esher Guildford Godalming and Ash
I believe they will also win:
Dorking and Horley Woking
I believe they can also win (but that would be a joyous night):
Surrey Heath
There are others like:
Epsom and Ewell Farnham and Bordon etc
These can fall, but in all honesty it would require a complete Tory meltdown and the LD vote being higher than it currently is as there isn't enough of a local Labour squeeze message in these I suspect.
A warning to punters - Just to make clear although I am in Guildford I am playing a lowly role this time so don't really have any inside info.
Here is my list of possible Lib Dem seats in decreasing order of probability. The probability weighted total is 52 seats.
Bath 100% Kingston 100% Orkney and Shetland 100% Oxford West and Abingdon 100% Richmond Park 100% St Albans 100% Twickenham 100% St Ives 98% Cheadle 95% Winchester 95% Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross 95% Edinburgh West 95% Fife North East 95% Westmorland and Lonsdale 95% Esher and Walton 93% Cheltenham 93% Carshalton and Wallington 91% Eastbourne 91% Hazel Grove 91% Taunton and Wellington 91% Wimbledon 90% Guildford 89% Shropshire North 89% Lewes 85% Glastonbury and Somerton 83% Woking 83% Wokingham 83% Eastleigh 83% Norfolk North 83% Harrogate and Knaresborough 82% Cambridgeshire South 81% Chesham and Amersham 76% Cotswolds South 76% Godalming and Ash 76% Honiton and Sidmouth 76% Wells and Mendip Hills 75% Devon South 71% Dorking and Horley 71% Dorset West 71% Yeovil 71% Cornwall North 70% Thornbury and Yate 69% Mid Dunbartonshire 69% Bicester and Woodstock 66% Devon North 64% Chelmsford 62% Chippenham 62% Henley and Thame 61% Newbury 60% Tunbridge Wells 60% St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire 58% Surrey Heath 57% Dorset Mid and Poole North 57% Romsey and Southampton North 56% Harpenden and Berkhamsted 56% Didcot and Wantage 56% Sutton and Cheam 56% Frome and East Somerset 53% Chichester 50% Farnham and Bordon 50% Witney 49% Ely and East Cambridgeshire 48% Newton Abbot 47% Torbay 45% Stratford on Avon 43% Mid Sussex 41% Maidenhead 40% Epsom and Ewell 35% Melksham and Devises 34% Horsham 34% Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe 31% Tiverton and Minehead 25% Tewksbury 24% West Dorset 10% Hampshire North East 10% Dorset North 5% Cotswolds North 5% Hertfordshire South West 5% Fareham and Waterloo 1%
Total possible gains 52
They have a squeak in South Shropshire. I’d put it as a 20% squeak.
Imagine the beautiful career I could have - maybe travelling the world for free or something - if only I had a higher IQ
I’ll just have to make do with Vannes. It all looks like this - except what you can’t see right behind me is a beautiful harbour lined with restaurants selling great seafood
I remember a short story that I read at school which involved a verger who was squeezed out of his parish when the priest found that he couldn't read. Disconsolate, he wandered down a very long street looking to buy some cigarettes. And he couldn't find any so he opened a small shop. Time went by and he did the same again and again, finding places not served by others. He eventually ends up quite wealthy. Admirers are always astonished that he still can't read. What would you have been able to be if you had learned, they ask. To which the answer was, inevitably, a verger.
That sounds like a jeffery archer short story… a twist in the tale or something like that
Since when has Isabel Oakeshott had even a single shred of credibility or trustworthiness ?
In terms of shreds, she is a very thin jar of marmalade indeed.
Full disclosure: my first Brompton arrived about 10 days ago; I am currently wondering whether to go for a second.
Why would one person need 2 Bromptons? Surely they are an exception to the n+1. Road bikes, +1 becomes the dry weather best relegating previous to commuter/winter training. Offroad, hardtail + winter + jump + full sus + gravel/CX (if you must) Folding commuter bike, 1.
Comments
York has been a particular exercise in inconsistency and idiocy.
I have a friend who had the end broken off his elbow bone (one of them) a fortnight ago because some dozy wazzock in a 4x4 swapped lanes straight into him without looking after driving the best part of 200m across Trent Bridge in Nottingham alongside each other in separate lanes. May be a photo next week.
Trent Bridge has Jersey Barriers on it that turn the carriageway into a wider version of the Monaco Grans Prix race track, so rather than terrorists mowing down pedestrians once every 200 years, we have idiot drivers mowing down people riding cycles who are denied escape routes.
Vannes is delightful. A perfectly preserved medieval town centre - all half timbered and lush - surrounded by big stone ramparts and then quite grand 19th century deveiopments. Plus that lovely harbour and marina
Now I’m off to one of the most famous megalithic sites in the world - not Carnac!
I can also happily report that the only disappointing place in Vannes is the dull cathedral. No noom. The theory holds
There's probably a lowish ceiling for radical left-wing politics but it's higher than 8%.
I'm pretty convinced that 'subscribers' 'views' and 'comments' on YouTube pages are basically just made up. Clicking on the profile of any commenter, they have no videos, no details and a profile name that is just weird (XYZ123).
I assume it's just Russian bots driving 'engagement' but no one would seriously watch such two hour drivel.
Down here for the bollards they are doing things like putting ultra-bollards in at 1.2m spacings (Why? dunno. Required distance is 1.5m, and 1.2m is no advantage.) and in York they have run the mobility track right up against the side of the pavement corner of buildings, so that sightlines are made as little as possible for wheelchairs, and the streets as dangerous as possible.
It's just nuts.
Like so much in UK urban design, getting it right is a piece of pie, but the authorities just ... won't.
It's about tight as a wizard's sleeve.
As for pension funds, a creative Government needs to broaden the types of investments they can add to their portfolios, and get them behind economic growth, not strangling it. Overvalued commercial property portfolios owned by pension funds are a big factor in the death of the high street too. Why should a shop ever really be empty? The landlord should want to rent it, and the rent should find its true market value. The reason is big investors lying about their balance sheets.
So the polls aren't converging - well lets look at the three companies with the best recent records
Verian (ex-Kantar) / Survation / Opinium
Con 21/20/20 Lab 39/41/40 LD 13/12/12 Green 7/6/9 Ref 13/15/16
Look pretty converged to me. So on UNS at the best possible Con figures between those three we get -
Lab 417, Con 134, LD 56, Nats 21, G 1, Oths 21 (Is this the best the Cons can hope for?) That is without any tactical voting or differential swings (both of which are happening).
Time to revise down my estimate of 150 Con seats to 100-12
I would go under 100 if I was you, campaigning yesterday, the Cons response was awful and this in a pretty affluent area
Isabel Oakeshott says Oxford has become 'the wokest city in Britain'.
"It is a city of Brompton bikes, corduroy trousers, vegetarian curries and Palestinian flags."
📺 WATCH Plank Of The Week ► https://youtu.be/alWt5y8__SQ
@Iromg
@PeterBleksley
@IsabelOakeshott
@Barnesy19
https://x.com/TalkTV/status/1804217625230159875
I'm genuinely interested - is this just a UK fixation? I'd expect France to be doing things as a result of the 84 deaths in the Nice lorry attack in 2016?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36800730
In any case, I can tell you there are a lot of bikes in Oxford. Therefore, Brompton bikes too. But also un-woke ones.
Carrying Ming vase is one strategy, but another is attack is often best form of defence.
It seems every hour there’s another story of how tax payers money ran through Tory fingers.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/23/tory-mps-paid-100000-of-public-funds-to-partys-in-house-web-designers
Where is the danger for Labour of a fourth quarter attack on how the highest tax taking since Second World War debt has been so lazily frittered away? When things get bad on borrowing and tax increase, governments should get extra careful, not more squanderous.
On this question, you cannot say this has been a good Labour campaign, and Starmer has done well. They have thrown too few punches in the fight.
What will they say now?
The road only has 35k-40k AADT, so it doesn't exactly need 6 lanes. When it was somewhat restricted for various reasons, tram journeys went up by 4k a day, so some motor traffic can be shifted with gentle persuasion.
https://www.google.com/maps/@52.9381178,-1.1355635,3a,75y,280.92h,85.98t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sifL9iEvcBkxeg2aVXDiDig!2e0!7i16384!8i8192?coh=205409&entry=ttu
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/article/2024/jun/23/how-a-lunar-standstill-is-shining-new-light-on-stonehenge
Putin is our friend.
Sending weapons to Ukraine is a waste of our money.
Ukraine should surrender anyway.
Better to generate electricity from expensive gas than using our natural resources like wind or solar.
Basically anything that keeps us relying upon or funding Russia is good, anything else is bad.
When you opined that Swinney would not accept permanent leadership of the SNP I assumed you were simply out of touch with the events happening in the World.
I see now that you were ahead of the curve with the notion that he won't survive long in post.
Chapeau
As for the WEF, the WEF is a pressure group that numbers among its members and supporters some of the world's most powerful corporate and political figures. It publishes its policy documents, and its events are also public, so I don't see how a critique of its agenda is in any way shape or form a 'conspiracy theory'. It strikes me as no different to critiquing the influence of the TUC on Labour Party Policy, or Lord Hester's influence on the Tories. As for Covid-19, I haven't read the 'nods' you describe so I'll need more info.
40% of the South Devon seat is Brixham and surrounding area. We have heard from sources that the LibDems are putting much less effort into this area as the response has been "poor". The voting there was almost North Korean levels of support for the Conservatives from some boxes in 2019. The Conservative MP/candidate has secured £25m to upgrade the harbour and another £1m to improve the central car park. This is well known. All residents also had a letter just before the end of Parliament about how he was holding South West Water's feet to the fire about the polluted water outbreak in Brixham. Worked closely with the trawlermen too - been out on the boats with them.
Now, the LibDems finding it difficult doesn't mean that Reform might not be a factor there - but so far, only seen one area of leafletting and no canvassing. No posters. Our suppport has been holding up well.
I doubt the LibDems in South Devon would put their chances at 71%. The Labour campaign has been under the radar/non-existent (considering they came second here in 2017) but there is also a Green. The LibDems are going to have to mop up a big chunk of both their support to win this seat in the remaining 60% available outside the Brixham area.
On Devon North, I understand Selaine Saxby was also a well-regarded local MP who is standing again. She had a a majority last time of nearly 15,000.
I think incumbency is a significant factor. (Unless of course they have been a complete dick as an MP.)
You might like to highlight those seats where the previous Conservative MP has stood down. I think they might be more fertile ground for the LibDems.
They quite rightly don't want to have to pay third party countries to import coal or gas, when they can just use their own natural wind and sunshine.
We are doing exactly the same and for bloody good reason, we need to continue to do more of it.
In terms of shreds, she is a very thin jar of marmalade indeed.
Full disclosure: my first Brompton arrived about 10 days ago; I am currently wondering whether to go for a second.
NEW THREAD
I missed along with half the posts yesterday.
Good and interesting read.
DA should do a modern day version of Day of the Jackal, with the anti hero as an anarcho-Leninist with an unhealthy obsession with car mechanics.
Would outsell Leon's stuff.
As one of PBs up and coming psephologists, I don’t use the term herd, I prefer murmuring. Pedantically you could try to argue there is little difference between herd and murmur, they are doing so out of fear, of being the one outstanding on their own, therefore gets eaten. I suggest we over emphasise that fear as a murmur before landing, rather than just standing in herd. They don’t normally stand in a herd, as herds often do, there is extra doing thing, such as landing at once before election, about it.
Reform are going for his vote. And will get it.
(WEF is funded by some of the biggest oil companies in the world, so I'm not entirely sure the beech trees are down to them tbh).
Will they ever select another;
Billionaire?
Party? Yes.
Country? Not if they can help it. Even at school he didn't want to mix with the Hoi polloi but the inability to relate to the common man is a definite negative.
Tech-bro?
Party? No. They need a politician, with a common touch. Not another spreadsheet geek. They didn't want him first time round, and gifting him the gig worked out badly.
Country? Maybe
Person of Colour?
Party? Yes
Country? Yes, although that may depend how many RefUK 'teal shirts' are marching
Non-Christian?
Party? Yes
Country? Yes, although the exact flavour and fervour may be a factor
Short-arse with shorter trousers
Party? If they have to
Country? Not if they can help it
The Crown-in-Parliament is the dominant part of the operating apparatus
But its authority comes from elsewhere. While the royal sovereignty used to be from the divine right of kings, parliaments’s sovereign is derived from the people
Fundamentally they can’t change the rules of the game without explicit authority of the electorate. That’s why we saw referenda on devolution, electoral reform, Scottish independence, Brexit, etc
Aberdeen looks very pretty in the sunshine this afternoon from my 6th floor room.
My taxi driver from the heliport said nothing about politics, immigration or current affairs.
I don't think I will ever make a globetrotting travel writer as clearly I don't meet the right sort of people.
Road bikes, +1 becomes the dry weather best relegating previous to commuter/winter training.
Offroad, hardtail + winter + jump + full sus + gravel/CX (if you must)
Folding commuter bike, 1.