It isn't messing about you [rudeword][rudeword]. If a thing is worth doing it is worth doing seriously. I *LOATHE* this "only messing about/a bit of fun" dipshittery. There are many things about Britain that I hate, and this middle-class blue-shirted open-collar pious commentariat cohort is one of them, where nothing ever really matters, nothing is ever taken seriously, nobody is held to account, and politics is just a podcast. GAMBLING IS LEGAL. YOU ARE ALLOWED TO DO IT.
[rudeword that gets you banned from PB]
AND FRAUD ISN'T.
This needs a test case to establish the law. Maybe a couple of arrests ... ?
RIP Donald Sutherland. He was my favourite Blofeld in ‘You Only Live Twice’ and, more recently, knocked it out of the park as Jack Bauer in ‘24’. An exceptionally long and versatile career.
His drama about Scottish law in the 1970's was also impressive, and his method acting as a Westminster constituency from 1801–1918 had to be seen to be believed.
So Mr TSE what first attracted you to the Mone ennobling, Brexit enabling, Greensill ramping, forehead-polishing, Old Etonian David Cameron?
His devotion to duty and his family.
Devotion to duty.
"Sorry Remain lost. I'm off."
I'll let you into a little secret, had he not have retired, plenty of Tory MPs were prepared to force him out and they have enough numbers to damage him.
He decided to not prolong the agony.
He still should have owned it and stayed on to work through the negotiations.
It isn't messing about you [rudeword][rudeword]. If a thing is worth doing it is worth doing seriously. I *LOATHE* this "only messing about/a bit of fun" dipshittery. There are many things about Britain that I hate, and this middle-class blue-shirted open-collar pious commentariat cohort is one of them, where nothing ever really matters, nothing is ever taken seriously, nobody is held to account, and politics is just a podcast. GAMBLING IS LEGAL. YOU ARE ALLOWED TO DO IT.
[rudeword that gets you banned from PB]
Impressively incoherent, what are you actually saying?...
Of all the accusations that could be levelled at that cri de coeur, "lack of clarity" is not one of them
You don't get to mark your own homework. It is barking. Trust me on this.
So the SNP are contesting, what, 66 seats? How come their leader is part of the BBC grilling but the Reform leader, whose party is contesting almost all seats in the mainland, isn’t? Is the leader of Plainthere or not?
Been resisting bringing this up, but I'm going to. Others may remember/know differently, but I'm sure OGH said he had sight of the 2010 Exit Poll at around 21:30 when he was at the BBC about to be interviewed by 5Live or something, but he said he wasn't in a position to do anything with it (I guess pre-smart phone). Perhaps he wouldn't have done anything, but if I remember rightly, he said it with frustration that he couldn't take advantage. I may be wrong.
I only remember this story because I was shocked that the Exit Poll isn't top secret. Perhaps things are different these days with smart phones making betting on this sort of information being much easier.
Pretty sure I remember it being said (and posted on here) that everyone working on the exit poll (ie people processing it at headquarters) has to hand their phone in.
RIP Donald Sutherland. He was my favourite Blofeld in ‘You Only Live Twice’ and, more recently, knocked it out of the park as Jack Bauer in ‘24’. An exceptionally long and versatile career.
Agreed. A superb and amazingly versatile actor. I think possibly my favourite out of many greats.
Loved his Mr Bennet in Pride and Prejudice and the fab version of Invasin of the Body Snatchers. But there are dozens of films where he shone.
So Mr TSE what first attracted you to the Mone ennobling, Brexit enabling, Greensill ramping, forehead-polishing, Old Etonian David Cameron?
His devotion to duty and his family.
Devotion to duty.
"Sorry Remain lost. I'm off."
I'll let you into a little secret, had he not have retired, plenty of Tory MPs were prepared to force him out and they have enough numbers to damage him.
He decided to not prolong the agony.
Self inflicted agony.
But now here he is at the heart of a Brexiteer government.
So the SNP are contesting, what, 66 seats? How come their leader is part of the BBC grilling but the Reform leader, whose party is contesting almost all seats in the mainland, isn’t? Is the leader of Plainthere or not?
It isn't messing about you [rudeword][rudeword]. If a thing is worth doing it is worth doing seriously. I *LOATHE* this "only messing about/a bit of fun" dipshittery. There are many things about Britain that I hate, and this middle-class blue-shirted open-collar pious commentariat cohort is one of them, where nothing ever really matters, nothing is ever taken seriously, nobody is held to account, and politics is just a podcast. GAMBLING IS LEGAL. YOU ARE ALLOWED TO DO IT.
[rudeword that gets you banned from PB]
AND FRAUD ISN'T.
This needs a test case to establish the law. Maybe a couple of arrests ... ?
It's not fraud. Neither party is obliged to disclose all the facts to the other, there's no due diligence, so no misrepresentation is possible. Each side buys the risk that the other person knows something.
RIP Donald Sutherland. He was my favourite Blofeld in ‘You Only Live Twice’ and, more recently, knocked it out of the park as Jack Bauer in ‘24’. An exceptionally long and versatile career.
The last thing I saw him in was 'Trust' about the Getty kidnapping in the 70's. It was very clear he was having an absolute ball.
So the SNP are contesting, what, 66 seats? How come their leader is part of the BBC grilling but the Reform leader, whose party is contesting almost all seats in the mainland, isn’t? Is the leader of Plainthere or not?
Greens and Reform have one next week
But why are the SNP at this one? Not a national party.
It isn't messing about you [rudeword][rudeword]. If a thing is worth doing it is worth doing seriously. I *LOATHE* this "only messing about/a bit of fun" dipshittery. There are many things about Britain that I hate, and this middle-class blue-shirted open-collar pious commentariat cohort is one of them, where nothing ever really matters, nothing is ever taken seriously, nobody is held to account, and politics is just a podcast. GAMBLING IS LEGAL. YOU ARE ALLOWED TO DO IT.
[rudeword that gets you banned from PB]
Impressively incoherent, what are you actually saying?...
Of all the accusations that could be levelled at that cri de coeur, "lack of clarity" is not one of them
You don't get to mark your own homework. It is barking. Trust me on this.
Been resisting bringing this up, but I'm going to. Others may remember/know differently, but I'm sure OGH said he had sight of the 2010 Exit Poll at around 21:30 when he was at the BBC about to be interviewed by 5Live or something, but he said he wasn't in a position to do anything with it (I guess pre-smart phone). Perhaps he wouldn't have done anything, but if I remember rightly, he said it with frustration that he couldn't take advantage. I may be wrong.
I only remember this story because I was shocked that the Exit Poll isn't top secret. Perhaps things are different these days with smart phones making betting on this sort of information being much easier.
Pretty sure I remember it being said (and posted on here) that everyone working on the exit poll (ie people processing it at headquarters) has to hand their phone in.
Yes, and that's quite right. It's more that time leading up to 22:00 when I guess the BBC want people beyond the exit poll team to know what's coming so that they can plan for questions etc.
So the SNP are contesting, what, 66 seats? How come their leader is part of the BBC grilling but the Reform leader, whose party is contesting almost all seats in the mainland, isn’t? Is the leader of Plainthere or not?
It’s strange . The logic seems to be its for the 4 parties with most current seats .
Not bad. He survived the Post Office questions though could have handled them more eloquently. He was human and a bit stumbly but in a fairly endearing fashion.
The best Question Time performer that the LibDems have is Layla, and I suspect she might be better positioned in the next few years to attack Labour from the left, but although I've long been a Davey-sceptic he's doing well this campaign.
So the SNP are contesting, what, 66 seats? How come their leader is part of the BBC grilling but the Reform leader, whose party is contesting almost all seats in the mainland, isn’t? Is the leader of Plainthere or not?
3rd biggest party in the outgoing parliament, innit? This won't happen next election. What's the problem?
This story is really about the timeless wisdom imparted by C&W music. If these guys wanted to play the game, boy, they shoulda learned to play it right.
I heard an interesting conspiracy theory a couple of years ago about the Brexit referendum that allegedly originated with mail workers.
It was that the general shock from the top politicians when the result came in was because the spooks had seen to it that a large amount of remain postal ballots had been inserted into the system (much easier to do with a national referendum than 650 constituencies) to make sure of the result - and despite this they still lost.
So the SNP are contesting, what, 66 seats? How come their leader is part of the BBC grilling but the Reform leader, whose party is contesting almost all seats in the mainland, isn’t? Is the leader of Plainthere or not?
3rd biggest party in the outgoing parliament, innit? This won't happen next election. What's the problem?
The vast majority of the audience (studio and on TV) cannot vote for his party.
I heard an interesting conspiracy theory a couple of years ago about the Brexit referendum that allegedly originated with mail workers.
It was that the general shock from the top politicians when the result came in was because the spooks had seen to it that a large amount of remain postal ballots had been inserted into the system (much easier to do with a national referendum than 650 constituencies) to make sure of the result - and despite this they still lost.
RIP Donald Sutherland. He was my favourite Blofeld in ‘You Only Live Twice’ and, more recently, knocked it out of the park as Jack Bauer in ‘24’. An exceptionally long and versatile career.
His drama about Scottish law in the 1970's was also impressive, and his method acting as a Westminster constituency from 1801–1918 had to be seen to be believed.
So the SNP are contesting, what, 66 seats? How come their leader is part of the BBC grilling but the Reform leader, whose party is contesting almost all seats in the mainland, isn’t? Is the leader of Plainthere or not?
3rd biggest party in the outgoing parliament, innit? This won't happen next election. What's the problem?
The vast majority of the audience (studio and on TV) cannot vote for his party.
So the SNP are contesting, what, 66 seats? How come their leader is part of the BBC grilling but the Reform leader, whose party is contesting almost all seats in the mainland, isn’t? Is the leader of Plainthere or not?
3rd biggest party in the outgoing parliament, innit? This won't happen next election. What's the problem?
The vast majority of the audience (studio and on TV) cannot vote for his party.
Correct. So what?
So why is he up at a programme for leaders of parties who are contesting across the vast majority of seats?
Not good, since it makes it more likely knee-jerk regulation will come our way.
Someone needs to be the person to stand up for betters, and especially the way the bookies data mine the hell out of winners to restrict them to pennies.
Hey bookie, if you’re offering a price you should be offering it to anyone and everyone.
Hills have had my balls in a vice since I clawed over £1.6k off them for Liz Truss as next PM.
I had a £10 bet knocked back to 87p (which I declined) this very afternoon.
If you really think Truss will still be next PM, they should have taken your £10.
Here is one I (or rather Ladbrokes) prepared earlier
Been resisting bringing this up, but I'm going to. Others may remember/know differently, but I'm sure OGH said he had sight of the 2010 Exit Poll at around 21:30 when he was at the BBC about to be interviewed by 5Live or something, but he said he wasn't in a position to do anything with it (I guess pre-smart phone). Perhaps he wouldn't have done anything, but if I remember rightly, he said it with frustration that he couldn't take advantage. I may be wrong.
I only remember this story because I was shocked that the Exit Poll isn't top secret. Perhaps things are different these days with smart phones making betting on this sort of information being much easier.
No, Mike's problem was he couldn't bet on his phone, he'd have to wait until he got in front of his laptop back home in Bedford, which would be around 11.30 pm which left him at a disadvantage.
Average 3G speeds then were about 300 Kbps.
On the spreads IIRC the Lib Dems were around 85 seats and the exit poll showed them going from 62 MPs to 57 MPs and as a buyer of the Lib Dems he couldn't close out his position.
So the SNP are contesting, what, 66 seats? How come their leader is part of the BBC grilling but the Reform leader, whose party is contesting almost all seats in the mainland, isn’t? Is the leader of Plainthere or not?
3rd biggest party in the outgoing parliament, innit? This won't happen next election. What's the problem?
The vast majority of the audience (studio and on TV) cannot vote for his party.
Correct. So what?
So why is he up at a programme for leaders of parties who are contesting across the vast majority of seats?
Presumably because the SNP were the third biggest party in the parliament that just finished, the biggest in Scotland, and that the format of this particular debate isn't what you think it is.
I heard an interesting conspiracy theory a couple of years ago about the Brexit referendum that allegedly originated with mail workers.
It was that the general shock from the top politicians when the result came in was because the spooks had seen to it that a large amount of remain postal ballots had been inserted into the system (much easier to do with a national referendum than 650 constituencies) to make sure of the result - and despite this they still lost.
That's a nasty little conspiracy theory to try to deny that the country was genuinely split almost down the middle over the issue, by suggesting that actually Remain was much further behind. It's trying to make Remain voters unpeople who don't exist.
"For a lot of the current Tories ethics is a county in the East of England where a lot of the young ladies look like wotsits. Just because you can do something doesn’t mean you should do it."
I heard an interesting conspiracy theory a couple of years ago about the Brexit referendum that allegedly originated with mail workers.
It was that the general shock from the top politicians when the result came in was because the spooks had seen to it that a large amount of remain postal ballots had been inserted into the system (much easier to do with a national referendum than 650 constituencies) to make sure of the result - and despite this they still lost.
There is a conspiracy theory about Brexit and postal ballots, but it's not that.
In 2007, Chris Huhne and Nick Clegg were the contenders in the LibDem leadership election. Clegg won narrowly: 20988 to 20477.
Except it took place in December. 1300 votes got delayed in the Christmas post. Clegg was declared the winner before the late-arriving ballots had been counted. When they were finally counted, it turns out Huhne would have won.
We know the rest. Clegg became LibDem leader and went into coalition with the Conservatives. It's safe to say Huhne would rather have sandpapered his eyeballs than do that. But even if he had, Huhne's political career would come to an end in 2012/13 with the speeding fine affair.
So: either no coalition, or a coalition that collapsed in 2012. No need for Cameron to promise a Brexit referendum in the 2015 campaign. No Brexit.
So the SNP are contesting, what, 66 seats? How come their leader is part of the BBC grilling but the Reform leader, whose party is contesting almost all seats in the mainland, isn’t? Is the leader of Plainthere or not?
3rd biggest party in the outgoing parliament, innit? This won't happen next election. What's the problem?
The vast majority of the audience (studio and on TV) cannot vote for his party.
Correct. So what?
So why is he up at a programme for leaders of parties who are contesting across the vast majority of seats?
Because the BBC couldn't think of a reason to include Davey but exclude both Swinney and Farage.
Base it on seats - Swinney Base it on polling- Farage
RIP Donald Sutherland. He was my favourite Blofeld in ‘You Only Live Twice’ and, more recently, knocked it out of the park as Jack Bauer in ‘24’. An exceptionally long and versatile career.
Agreed. A superb and amazingly versatile actor. I think possibly my favourite out of many greats.
Loved his Mr Bennet in Pride and Prejudice and the fab version of Invasin of the Body Snatchers. But there are dozens of films where he shone.
Woof woof woof.
If that’s your other dog impression, you need a dog for scale
So Mr TSE what first attracted you to the Mone ennobling, Brexit enabling, Greensill ramping, forehead-polishing, Old Etonian David Cameron?
His devotion to duty and his family.
Devotion to duty.
"Sorry Remain lost. I'm off."
I'll let you into a little secret, had he not have retired, plenty of Tory MPs were prepared to force him out and they have enough numbers to damage him.
He decided to not prolong the agony.
He still should have owned it and stayed on to work through the negotiations.
They wouldn't have allowed it. Their argument was the man who they considered got a poor renegotiation shouldn't be allowed to deal with the exit agreement.
Not good, since it makes it more likely knee-jerk regulation will come our way.
Someone needs to be the person to stand up for betters, and especially the way the bookies data mine the hell out of winners to restrict them to pennies.
Hey bookie, if you’re offering a price you should be offering it to anyone and everyone.
Hills have had my balls in a vice since I clawed over £1.6k off them for Liz Truss as next PM.
No wonder you've been a tad tetchy from time to time!
This feels like Swinney giving a lecture to an English audience on the finer points of Scottish politics.
With Fiona Bruce feeling the need to step in after every question and answer with a "just for viewers south of the border..." explanation of what had just been said.
So Mr TSE what first attracted you to the Mone ennobling, Brexit enabling, Greensill ramping, forehead-polishing, Old Etonian David Cameron?
His devotion to duty and his family.
Devotion to duty.
"Sorry Remain lost. I'm off."
I'll let you into a little secret, had he not have retired, plenty of Tory MPs were prepared to force him out and they have enough numbers to damage him.
He decided to not prolong the agony.
He still should have owned it and stayed on to work through the negotiations.
They wouldn't have allowed it. Their argument was the man who they considered got a poor renegotiation shouldn't be allowed to deal with the exit agreement.
It was a flawed strategy from the beginning. He should have stood aloof from the campaign or done a Tsipras and backed a Leave vote on the basis that he wasn't given enough by the EU.
So the SNP are contesting, what, 66 seats? How come their leader is part of the BBC grilling but the Reform leader, whose party is contesting almost all seats in the mainland, isn’t? Is the leader of Plainthere or not?
3rd biggest party in the outgoing parliament, innit? This won't happen next election. What's the problem?
The vast majority of the audience (studio and on TV) cannot vote for his party.
Correct. So what?
So why is he up at a programme for leaders of parties who are contesting across the vast majority of seats?
Presumably because the SNP were the third biggest party in the parliament that just finished, the biggest in Scotland, and that the format of this particular debate isn't what you think it is.
This isn’t an anti Scotland thing, if that’s why your hackles are rising. What is the format then? Is it all leaders spread over two weeks? Because it doesn’t look like that.
I heard an interesting conspiracy theory a couple of years ago about the Brexit referendum that allegedly originated with mail workers.
It was that the general shock from the top politicians when the result came in was because the spooks had seen to it that a large amount of remain postal ballots had been inserted into the system (much easier to do with a national referendum than 650 constituencies) to make sure of the result - and despite this they still lost.
The stupidity is plausible.
Napoleon said - “Let them vote. My brother will count the votes.”
What's the difference between a 150 seat and a 300 seat majority. Other things being equal, which of course they aren't, probably around 2 five year terms, i.e. 10 years.
Been resisting bringing this up, but I'm going to. Others may remember/know differently, but I'm sure OGH said he had sight of the 2010 Exit Poll at around 21:30 when he was at the BBC about to be interviewed by 5Live or something, but he said he wasn't in a position to do anything with it (I guess pre-smart phone). Perhaps he wouldn't have done anything, but if I remember rightly, he said it with frustration that he couldn't take advantage. I may be wrong.
I only remember this story because I was shocked that the Exit Poll isn't top secret. Perhaps things are different these days with smart phones making betting on this sort of information being much easier.
No, Mike's problem was he couldn't bet on his phone, he'd have to wait until he got in front of his laptop back home in Bedford, which would be around 11.30 pm which left him at a disadvantage.
Average 3G speeds then were about 300 Kbps.
On the spreads IIRC the Lib Dems were around 85 seats and the exit poll showed them going from 62 MPs to 57 MPs and as a buyer of the Lib Dems he couldn't close out his position.
Thanks, so I am right that he would have taken advantage if he could. The exit poll is far more important than any opinion poll you might have early sight of.
What's the difference between a 150 seat and a 300 seat majority. Other things being equal, which of course they aren't, probably around 2 five year terms, i.e. 10 years.
Why? That presupposes there's a limit to what can be lost in just one election.
So the SNP are contesting, what, 66 seats? How come their leader is part of the BBC grilling but the Reform leader, whose party is contesting almost all seats in the mainland, isn’t? Is the leader of Plainthere or not?
3rd biggest party in the outgoing parliament, innit? This won't happen next election. What's the problem?
The vast majority of the audience (studio and on TV) cannot vote for his party.
Correct. So what?
So why is he up at a programme for leaders of parties who are contesting across the vast majority of seats?
Presumably because the SNP were the third biggest party in the parliament that just finished, the biggest in Scotland, and that the format of this particular debate isn't what you think it is.
This isn’t an anti Scotland thing, if that’s why your hackles are rising. What is the format then? Is it all leaders spread over two weeks? Because it doesn’t look like that.
It looks to me like it's the largest parties in the outgoing parliament. And I didn't think it was an anti-Scotland thing. The SNP are not Scotland. I don't even think it's an anti-SNP thing. I just don't see what the problem is with this format. You could do it differently. Other debates are being done differently. They're fine. This is fine.
Been resisting bringing this up, but I'm going to. Others may remember/know differently, but I'm sure OGH said he had sight of the 2010 Exit Poll at around 21:30 when he was at the BBC about to be interviewed by 5Live or something, but he said he wasn't in a position to do anything with it (I guess pre-smart phone). Perhaps he wouldn't have done anything, but if I remember rightly, he said it with frustration that he couldn't take advantage. I may be wrong.
I only remember this story because I was shocked that the Exit Poll isn't top secret. Perhaps things are different these days with smart phones making betting on this sort of information being much easier.
No, Mike's problem was he couldn't bet on his phone, he'd have to wait until he got in front of his laptop back home in Bedford, which would be around 11.30 pm which left him at a disadvantage.
Average 3G speeds then were about 300 Kbps.
On the spreads IIRC the Lib Dems were around 85 seats and the exit poll showed them going from 62 MPs to 57 MPs and as a buyer of the Lib Dems he couldn't close out his position.
Thanks, so I am right that he would have taken advantage if he could. The exit poll is far more important than any opinion poll you might have early sight of.
No, he would have waited until 10pm like everybody else.
His frustration was that by going to the BBC studios he was left in a worse position than the average punter at 10pm.
RIP Donald Sutherland. He was my favourite Blofeld in ‘You Only Live Twice’ and, more recently, knocked it out of the park as Jack Bauer in ‘24’. An exceptionally long and versatile career.
Agreed. A superb and amazingly versatile actor. I think possibly my favourite out of many greats.
Loved his Mr Bennet in Pride and Prejudice and the fab version of Invasin of the Body Snatchers. But there are dozens of films where he shone.
Woof woof woof.
If that’s your other dog impression, you need a dog for scale
Oh you philistine. It was a tribute to the great Oddball.
I heard an interesting conspiracy theory a couple of years ago about the Brexit referendum that allegedly originated with mail workers.
It was that the general shock from the top politicians when the result came in was because the spooks had seen to it that a large amount of remain postal ballots had been inserted into the system (much easier to do with a national referendum than 650 constituencies) to make sure of the result - and despite this they still lost.
There is a conspiracy theory about Brexit and postal ballots, but it's not that.
In 2007, Chris Huhne and Nick Clegg were the contenders in the LibDem leadership election. Clegg won narrowly: 20988 to 20477.
Except it took place in December. 1300 votes got delayed in the Christmas post. Clegg was declared the winner before the late-arriving ballots had been counted. When they were finally counted, it turns out Huhne would have won.
We know the rest. Clegg became LibDem leader and went into coalition with the Conservatives. It's safe to say Huhne would rather have sandpapered his eyeballs than do that. But even if he had, Huhne's political career would come to an end in 2012/13 with the speeding fine affair.
So: either no coalition, or a coalition that collapsed in 2012. No need for Cameron to promise a Brexit referendum in the 2015 campaign. No Brexit.
Thanks, posties!
He would simply have promised a referendum earlier.
The volume numbers are very silly, in at least two respects:
1. There was plenty of market making very short term trading going on, both automated and manual. It's not as though there was a £3 million single bet. 2. Betfair (and almost any derivative) volume numbers don't make any sense anyway... well they make sense, but they don't mean what journalists mean. Except Betfair in particular really doesn't make sense. I previously posted about how Betfair and Polymarket volume figures are not comparable. Well Polymarket's volume figures make more sense to me logically (basically they treat it as if it's a binary and quote the notional value * number of lots). But notional volume in that sense can lead to absolutely enormous numbers - see the STIRs markets for example, where there's plenty of people (or were a decade ago) trying to make £12.50, best case, on a notional volume of £1million. Totally meaningless numbers.
"For a lot of the current Tories ethics is a county in the East of England where a lot of the young ladies look like wotsits. Just because you can do something doesn’t mean you should do it."
There are cartoonists, and then there’s Matt Pritchett.
He gets paid more than the editor, and you can see why.
What I don't get is that his cartoons appear to be free to view by everyone, on a website that isn't the Telegraph.
Why do they not more closely guard their best asset?
He has standing offers from the Mail and the Sun, and the proprietor has made it clear to the editor that losing Matt would be a resigning matter (for the editor).
I heard an interesting conspiracy theory a couple of years ago about the Brexit referendum that allegedly originated with mail workers.
It was that the general shock from the top politicians when the result came in was because the spooks had seen to it that a large amount of remain postal ballots had been inserted into the system (much easier to do with a national referendum than 650 constituencies) to make sure of the result - and despite this they still lost.
That's a nasty little conspiracy theory to try to deny that the country was genuinely split almost down the middle over the issue, by suggesting that actually Remain was much further behind. It's trying to make Remain voters unpeople who don't exist.
You should pay things like that no heed at all.
Yebbut - it expalins the higher turnout than in general elections....
It isn't messing about you [rudeword][rudeword]. If a thing is worth doing it is worth doing seriously. I *LOATHE* this "only messing about/a bit of fun" dipshittery. There are many things about Britain that I hate, and this middle-class blue-shirted open-collar pious commentariat cohort is one of them, where nothing ever really matters, nothing is ever taken seriously, nobody is held to account, and politics is just a podcast. GAMBLING IS LEGAL. YOU ARE ALLOWED TO DO IT.
[rudeword that gets you banned from PB]
Not £100....100 whole pounds. I think he would have a heart attack if he saw how much I used to have in play every day. Clue, more than the total for the 21st May.
Tony Bloom's betting slips were reported to have been in the £10's millions every Saturday.
I find it rather mind boggling how trivial the amounts involved are compared to how obviously terrible this looks for an election candidate.
Its absolutely moronic. There is no real liquidity in these novelty markets, so there isn't even life changing money on the line. So you risk this for a few £100. You got to be an absolute brain dead. That spike to several £1000 staked in one day will have already set off alarm bells at the bookies.
Indeed. At least the Tory PPE crooks managed to walk away with £millions.
I heard an interesting conspiracy theory a couple of years ago about the Brexit referendum that allegedly originated with mail workers.
It was that the general shock from the top politicians when the result came in was because the spooks had seen to it that a large amount of remain postal ballots had been inserted into the system (much easier to do with a national referendum than 650 constituencies) to make sure of the result - and despite this they still lost.
Oh, this nonsense reminds me that I never got around to telling you to fuck off for calling for people to be drowned.
I heard an interesting conspiracy theory a couple of years ago about the Brexit referendum that allegedly originated with mail workers.
It was that the general shock from the top politicians when the result came in was because the spooks had seen to it that a large amount of remain postal ballots had been inserted into the system (much easier to do with a national referendum than 650 constituencies) to make sure of the result - and despite this they still lost.
That's a nasty little conspiracy theory to try to deny that the country was genuinely split almost down the middle over the issue, by suggesting that actually Remain was much further behind. It's trying to make Remain voters unpeople who don't exist.
You should pay things like that no heed at all.
Yebbut - it expalins the higher turnout than in general elections....
And, possibly, the lack of any even mild attempt to engineer a rematch, given the closeness of the result.
Been resisting bringing this up, but I'm going to. Others may remember/know differently, but I'm sure OGH said he had sight of the 2010 Exit Poll at around 21:30 when he was at the BBC about to be interviewed by 5Live or something, but he said he wasn't in a position to do anything with it (I guess pre-smart phone). Perhaps he wouldn't have done anything, but if I remember rightly, he said it with frustration that he couldn't take advantage. I may be wrong.
I only remember this story because I was shocked that the Exit Poll isn't top secret. Perhaps things are different these days with smart phones making betting on this sort of information being much easier.
No, Mike's problem was he couldn't bet on his phone, he'd have to wait until he got in front of his laptop back home in Bedford, which would be around 11.30 pm which left him at a disadvantage.
Average 3G speeds then were about 300 Kbps.
On the spreads IIRC the Lib Dems were around 85 seats and the exit poll showed them going from 62 MPs to 57 MPs and as a buyer of the Lib Dems he couldn't close out his position.
Thanks, so I am right that he would have taken advantage if he could. The exit poll is far more important than any opinion poll you might have early sight of.
No, he would have waited until 10pm like everybody else.
His frustration was that by going to the BBC studios he was left in a worse position than the average punter at 10pm.
No, sorry, that's bollocks. You don't get to see such information and then wait until 10pm like everyone else.
I heard an interesting conspiracy theory a couple of years ago about the Brexit referendum that allegedly originated with mail workers.
It was that the general shock from the top politicians when the result came in was because the spooks had seen to it that a large amount of remain postal ballots had been inserted into the system (much easier to do with a national referendum than 650 constituencies) to make sure of the result - and despite this they still lost.
That's a nasty little conspiracy theory to try to deny that the country was genuinely split almost down the middle over the issue, by suggesting that actually Remain was much further behind. It's trying to make Remain voters unpeople who don't exist.
You should pay things like that no heed at all.
It also implies that our spooks aren't able to fiddle a vote effectively.
What's the difference between a 150 seat and a 300 seat majority. Other things being equal, which of course they aren't, probably around 2 five year terms, i.e. 10 years.
Why? That presupposes there's a limit to what can be lost in just one election.
I don't think there's any such limit.
That's precisely what is being demonstrated now. Landslide one way doesn't preclude landslide the other way next time.
I heard an interesting conspiracy theory a couple of years ago about the Brexit referendum that allegedly originated with mail workers.
It was that the general shock from the top politicians when the result came in was because the spooks had seen to it that a large amount of remain postal ballots had been inserted into the system (much easier to do with a national referendum than 650 constituencies) to make sure of the result - and despite this they still lost.
Oh, this nonsense reminds me that I never got around to telling you to fuck off for calling for people to be drowned.
So, er, fuck off.
There, glad I got that off my chest.
Charming. Especially, given that I did no such thing.
Been resisting bringing this up, but I'm going to. Others may remember/know differently, but I'm sure OGH said he had sight of the 2010 Exit Poll at around 21:30 when he was at the BBC about to be interviewed by 5Live or something, but he said he wasn't in a position to do anything with it (I guess pre-smart phone). Perhaps he wouldn't have done anything, but if I remember rightly, he said it with frustration that he couldn't take advantage. I may be wrong.
I only remember this story because I was shocked that the Exit Poll isn't top secret. Perhaps things are different these days with smart phones making betting on this sort of information being much easier.
No, Mike's problem was he couldn't bet on his phone, he'd have to wait until he got in front of his laptop back home in Bedford, which would be around 11.30 pm which left him at a disadvantage.
Average 3G speeds then were about 300 Kbps.
On the spreads IIRC the Lib Dems were around 85 seats and the exit poll showed them going from 62 MPs to 57 MPs and as a buyer of the Lib Dems he couldn't close out his position.
Thanks, so I am right that he would have taken advantage if he could. The exit poll is far more important than any opinion poll you might have early sight of.
No, he would have waited until 10pm like everybody else.
His frustration was that by going to the BBC studios he was left in a worse position than the average punter at 10pm.
No, sorry, that's bollocks. You don't get to see such information and then wait until 10pm like everyone else.
Sporting would cancel Mike's account (and anybody else's account) if they suspect they had early sight of the exit poll.
Plus it is likely to meet the threshold for insider dealing unlike a bet with Ladbrokes of William Hill.
Comments
This needs a test case to establish the law.
Maybe a couple of arrests ... ?
There's limited potential for any highlights to be shown more widely if they do well, and plenty of downside risk if they screw something up.
What's in it for them?
Loved his Mr Bennet in Pride and Prejudice and the fab version of Invasin of the Body Snatchers. But there are dozens of films where he shone.
Woof woof woof.
But now here he is at the heart of a Brexiteer government.
I am struggling to believe that about Ed.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trust_(American_TV_series)
And no football clash against it.
https://x.com/MattCartoonist/status/1803832343536234683
The best Question Time performer that the LibDems have is Layla, and I suspect she might be better positioned in the next few years to attack Labour from the left, but although I've long been a Davey-sceptic he's doing well this campaign.
This won't happen next election. What's the problem?
It was that the general shock from the top politicians when the result came in was because the spooks had seen to it that a large amount of remain postal ballots had been inserted into the system (much easier to do with a national referendum than 650 constituencies) to make sure of the result - and despite this they still lost.
He gets paid more than the editor, and you can see why.
Average 3G speeds then were about 300 Kbps.
On the spreads IIRC the Lib Dems were around 85 seats and the exit poll showed them going from 62 MPs to 57 MPs and as a buyer of the Lib Dems he couldn't close out his position.
I'm also watching The Spy Who Loved Me right now, although that's not the reason.
You should pay things like that no heed at all.
#bbcqt
In 2007, Chris Huhne and Nick Clegg were the contenders in the LibDem leadership election. Clegg won narrowly: 20988 to 20477.
Except it took place in December. 1300 votes got delayed in the Christmas post. Clegg was declared the winner before the late-arriving ballots had been counted. When they were finally counted, it turns out Huhne would have won.
We know the rest. Clegg became LibDem leader and went into coalition with the Conservatives. It's safe to say Huhne would rather have sandpapered his eyeballs than do that. But even if he had, Huhne's political career would come to an end in 2012/13 with the speeding fine affair.
So: either no coalition, or a coalition that collapsed in 2012. No need for Cameron to promise a Brexit referendum in the 2015 campaign. No Brexit.
Thanks, posties!
Base it on seats - Swinney
Base it on polling- Farage
1000 x better than a QT debate
It's a really poor format.
Napoleon said - “Let them vote. My brother will count the votes.”
I don't think there's any such limit.
Why do they not more closely guard their best asset?
His frustration was that by going to the BBC studios he was left in a worse position than the average punter at 10pm.
1. There was plenty of market making very short term trading going on, both automated and manual. It's not as though there was a £3 million single bet.
2. Betfair (and almost any derivative) volume numbers don't make any sense anyway... well they make sense, but they don't mean what journalists mean. Except Betfair in particular really doesn't make sense. I previously posted about how Betfair and Polymarket volume figures are not comparable. Well Polymarket's volume figures make more sense to me logically (basically they treat it as if it's a binary and quote the notional value * number of lots). But notional volume in that sense can lead to absolutely enormous numbers - see the STIRs markets for example, where there's plenty of people (or were a decade ago) trying to make £12.50, best case, on a notional volume of £1million. Totally meaningless numbers.
40 years ago.
I am in favour of all the good government we can afford.
So, er, fuck off.
There, glad I got that off my chest.
Plus it is likely to meet the threshold for insider dealing unlike a bet with Ladbrokes of William Hill.