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Political betting dominates the news – politicalbetting.com

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  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,933
    viewcode said:

    I count myself accursed that this dipshit middle-class morality still holds sway in the UK

    "...Jim Waterson·Jun 20, 2024 @jimwaterson. For the first four months of the year people are gambling a few quid here and there on July. It's just messing about. People are having fun and guessing..."

    It isn't messing about you [rudeword][rudeword]. If a thing is worth doing it is worth doing seriously. I *LOATHE* this "only messing about/a bit of fun" dipshittery. There are many things about Britain that I hate, and this middle-class blue-shirted open-collar pious commentariat cohort is one of them, where nothing ever really matters, nothing is ever taken seriously, nobody is held to account, and politics is just a podcast. GAMBLING IS LEGAL. YOU ARE ALLOWED TO DO IT.

    [rudeword that gets you banned from PB]

    AND FRAUD ISN'T.

    This needs a test case to establish the law.
    Maybe a couple of arrests ... ?
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,075
    tlg86 said:

    The Lib Dems want to compensate WASPI women? Ridiculous.

    No it isn't
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,682
    Davey, Swinney, Starmer and Sunak on BBC QT tonight. Farage excluded so chance for Sunak to make some inroads
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,492
    What's the point of Swinney answering questions from a York audience?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,922
    Cicero said:

    tlg86 said:

    The Lib Dems want to compensate WASPI women? Ridiculous.

    No it isn't
    Oh yes it is.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,005
    viewcode said:

    DougSeal said:

    RIP Donald Sutherland. He was my favourite Blofeld in ‘You Only Live Twice’ and, more recently, knocked it out of the park as Jack Bauer in ‘24’. An exceptionally long and versatile career.

    His drama about Scottish law in the 1970's was also impressive, and his method acting as a Westminster constituency from 1801–1918 had to be seen to be believed.
    55021 Argyll and Donald Sutherland Highlander
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,449
    I'm struggling to understand why the leaders agreed to participate in this deathly dull QT. The questions are mediocre, and there's no actual debate.

    There's limited potential for any highlights to be shown more widely if they do well, and plenty of downside risk if they screw something up.

    What's in it for them?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,922
    Andy_JS said:

    What's the point of Swinney answering questions from a York audience?

    SNP territorial ambitions.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,509

    If Nadine Dorries is right then I may die of happiness this weekend.

    Will Sunak step down at the weekend and ask @David_Cameron to step in?

    Would he rather be an MP who loses his seat rather than the first PM to lose in living history?

    The day after the night before is an issue. The party will be in free fall.

    DC won’t want to do so but he is a man who has a strong sense of public duty and experience who would put party before self.

    Just a thought …


    https://x.com/NadineDorries/status/1803732654258340277

    So Mr TSE what first attracted you to the Mone ennobling, Brexit enabling, Greensill ramping, forehead-polishing, Old Etonian David Cameron?
    His devotion to duty and his family.
    Devotion to duty.

    "Sorry Remain lost. I'm off."
    I'll let you into a little secret, had he not have retired, plenty of Tory MPs were prepared to force him out and they have enough numbers to damage him.

    He decided to not prolong the agony.
    He still should have owned it and stayed on to work through the negotiations.
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    I count myself accursed that this dipshit middle-class morality still holds sway in the UK

    "...Jim Waterson·Jun 20, 2024 @jimwaterson. For the first four months of the year people are gambling a few quid here and there on July. It's just messing about. People are having fun and guessing..."

    It isn't messing about you [rudeword][rudeword]. If a thing is worth doing it is worth doing seriously. I *LOATHE* this "only messing about/a bit of fun" dipshittery. There are many things about Britain that I hate, and this middle-class blue-shirted open-collar pious commentariat cohort is one of them, where nothing ever really matters, nothing is ever taken seriously, nobody is held to account, and politics is just a podcast. GAMBLING IS LEGAL. YOU ARE ALLOWED TO DO IT.

    [rudeword that gets you banned from PB]

    Impressively incoherent, what are you actually saying?...
    Of all the accusations that could be levelled at that cri de coeur, "lack of clarity" is not one of them
    You don't get to mark your own homework. It is barking. Trust me on this.
    Intense, yes. Incoherent, no.
    *I* know what I meant.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,772
    HYUFD said:

    Essex is of course the home of ethical, moral upstanding people, just rather a lot of them also tanned and on Love Island...

    Any plans for the next series of Love Island @HYUFD. I might actually watch it if you were appearing. No change that - I would definitely watch it.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    AlsoLei said:

    I'm struggling to understand why the leaders agreed to participate in this deathly dull QT. The questions are mediocre, and there's no actual debate.

    There's limited potential for any highlights to be shown more widely if they do well, and plenty of downside risk if they screw something up.

    What's in it for them?

    It's a humiliation ritual required for taking your place on the power ladder!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,081
    RobD said:

    Eds time is up

    Thought he was quite good.
    He was. He has a Hugh Bonneville vibe.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,326
    So the SNP are contesting, what, 66 seats? How come their leader is part of the BBC grilling but the Reform leader, whose party is contesting almost all seats in the mainland, isn’t? Is the leader of Plainthere or not?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,492
    edited June 20
    AlsoLei said:

    I'm struggling to understand why the leaders agreed to participate in this deathly dull QT. The questions are mediocre, and there's no actual debate.

    There's limited potential for any highlights to be shown more widely if they do well, and plenty of downside risk if they screw something up.

    What's in it for them?

    Hope springs eternal in the human breast
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,702
    tlg86 said:

    Been resisting bringing this up, but I'm going to. Others may remember/know differently, but I'm sure OGH said he had sight of the 2010 Exit Poll at around 21:30 when he was at the BBC about to be interviewed by 5Live or something, but he said he wasn't in a position to do anything with it (I guess pre-smart phone). Perhaps he wouldn't have done anything, but if I remember rightly, he said it with frustration that he couldn't take advantage. I may be wrong.

    I only remember this story because I was shocked that the Exit Poll isn't top secret. Perhaps things are different these days with smart phones making betting on this sort of information being much easier.

    Pretty sure I remember it being said (and posted on here) that everyone working on the exit poll (ie people processing it at headquarters) has to hand their phone in.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,404
    DougSeal said:

    RIP Donald Sutherland. He was my favourite Blofeld in ‘You Only Live Twice’ and, more recently, knocked it out of the park as Jack Bauer in ‘24’. An exceptionally long and versatile career.

    Agreed. A superb and amazingly versatile actor. I think possibly my favourite out of many greats.

    Loved his Mr Bennet in Pride and Prejudice and the fab version of Invasin of the Body Snatchers. But there are dozens of films where he shone.

    Woof woof woof.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,005

    If Nadine Dorries is right then I may die of happiness this weekend.

    Will Sunak step down at the weekend and ask @David_Cameron to step in?

    Would he rather be an MP who loses his seat rather than the first PM to lose in living history?

    The day after the night before is an issue. The party will be in free fall.

    DC won’t want to do so but he is a man who has a strong sense of public duty and experience who would put party before self.

    Just a thought …


    https://x.com/NadineDorries/status/1803732654258340277

    So Mr TSE what first attracted you to the Mone ennobling, Brexit enabling, Greensill ramping, forehead-polishing, Old Etonian David Cameron?
    His devotion to duty and his family.
    Devotion to duty.

    "Sorry Remain lost. I'm off."
    I'll let you into a little secret, had he not have retired, plenty of Tory MPs were prepared to force him out and they have enough numbers to damage him.

    He decided to not prolong the agony.
    Self inflicted agony.

    But now here he is at the heart of a Brexiteer government.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    Anybody accused of betting on inside information on the election date has a perfect defence.

    "I read it weeks before - on the premier politics betting site: pb.com."

    Case dismissed.

    @MoonRabbit being summoned to court as an expert witness would be a sight for sore eyes
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    So the SNP are contesting, what, 66 seats? How come their leader is part of the BBC grilling but the Reform leader, whose party is contesting almost all seats in the mainland, isn’t? Is the leader of Plainthere or not?

    Greens and Reform have one next week
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,813
    kinabalu said:

    RobD said:

    Eds time is up

    Thought he was quite good.
    He was. He has a Hugh Bonneville vibe.
    You mean he has a load of Super Injuctions for shagging around?

    I am struggling to believe that about Ed.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,492
    This feels like Swinney giving a lecture to an English audience on the finer points of Scottish politics.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,008
    Nigelb said:

    viewcode said:

    I count myself accursed that this dipshit middle-class morality still holds sway in the UK

    "...Jim Waterson·Jun 20, 2024 @jimwaterson. For the first four months of the year people are gambling a few quid here and there on July. It's just messing about. People are having fun and guessing..."

    It isn't messing about you [rudeword][rudeword]. If a thing is worth doing it is worth doing seriously. I *LOATHE* this "only messing about/a bit of fun" dipshittery. There are many things about Britain that I hate, and this middle-class blue-shirted open-collar pious commentariat cohort is one of them, where nothing ever really matters, nothing is ever taken seriously, nobody is held to account, and politics is just a podcast. GAMBLING IS LEGAL. YOU ARE ALLOWED TO DO IT.

    [rudeword that gets you banned from PB]

    AND FRAUD ISN'T.

    This needs a test case to establish the law.
    Maybe a couple of arrests ... ?
    It's not fraud. Neither party is obliged to disclose all the facts to the other, there's no due diligence, so no misrepresentation is possible. Each side buys the risk that the other person knows something.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,757
    DougSeal said:

    RIP Donald Sutherland. He was my favourite Blofeld in ‘You Only Live Twice’ and, more recently, knocked it out of the park as Jack Bauer in ‘24’. An exceptionally long and versatile career.

    The last thing I saw him in was 'Trust' about the Getty kidnapping in the 70's. It was very clear he was having an absolute ball.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trust_(American_TV_series)
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,326

    So the SNP are contesting, what, 66 seats? How come their leader is part of the BBC grilling but the Reform leader, whose party is contesting almost all seats in the mainland, isn’t? Is the leader of Plainthere or not?

    Greens and Reform have one next week
    But why are the SNP at this one? Not a national party.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,008

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    I count myself accursed that this dipshit middle-class morality still holds sway in the UK

    "...Jim Waterson·Jun 20, 2024 @jimwaterson. For the first four months of the year people are gambling a few quid here and there on July. It's just messing about. People are having fun and guessing..."

    It isn't messing about you [rudeword][rudeword]. If a thing is worth doing it is worth doing seriously. I *LOATHE* this "only messing about/a bit of fun" dipshittery. There are many things about Britain that I hate, and this middle-class blue-shirted open-collar pious commentariat cohort is one of them, where nothing ever really matters, nothing is ever taken seriously, nobody is held to account, and politics is just a podcast. GAMBLING IS LEGAL. YOU ARE ALLOWED TO DO IT.

    [rudeword that gets you banned from PB]

    Impressively incoherent, what are you actually saying?...
    Of all the accusations that could be levelled at that cri de coeur, "lack of clarity" is not one of them
    You don't get to mark your own homework. It is barking. Trust me on this.
    Intense, yes. Incoherent, no.
    *I* know what I meant.
    So do I.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,702
    edited June 20
    HYUFD said:

    Davey, Swinney, Starmer and Sunak on BBC QT tonight. Farage excluded so chance for Sunak to make some inroads

    Remember there is a bonus QT next week on Friday at 7pm - Farage and Green leader get 30 mins each.

    And no football clash against it.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,152
    MikeL said:

    tlg86 said:

    Been resisting bringing this up, but I'm going to. Others may remember/know differently, but I'm sure OGH said he had sight of the 2010 Exit Poll at around 21:30 when he was at the BBC about to be interviewed by 5Live or something, but he said he wasn't in a position to do anything with it (I guess pre-smart phone). Perhaps he wouldn't have done anything, but if I remember rightly, he said it with frustration that he couldn't take advantage. I may be wrong.

    I only remember this story because I was shocked that the Exit Poll isn't top secret. Perhaps things are different these days with smart phones making betting on this sort of information being much easier.

    Pretty sure I remember it being said (and posted on here) that everyone working on the exit poll (ie people processing it at headquarters) has to hand their phone in.
    Yes, and that's quite right. It's more that time leading up to 22:00 when I guess the BBC want people beyond the exit poll team to know what's coming so that they can plan for questions etc.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,404
    edited June 20
    Cicero said:

    tlg86 said:

    The Lib Dems want to compensate WASPI women? Ridiculous.

    No it isn't
    Maybe I should campaign to get compensated every time a change in Government tax policy costs me money.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,273

    So the SNP are contesting, what, 66 seats? How come their leader is part of the BBC grilling but the Reform leader, whose party is contesting almost all seats in the mainland, isn’t? Is the leader of Plainthere or not?

    It’s strange . The logic seems to be its for the 4 parties with most current seats .
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    RobD said:

    Eds time is up

    Thought he was quite good.
    Not bad. He survived the Post Office questions though could have handled them more eloquently. He was human and a bit stumbly but in a fairly endearing fashion.

    The best Question Time performer that the LibDems have is Layla, and I suspect she might be better positioned in the next few years to attack Labour from the left, but although I've long been a Davey-sceptic he's doing well this campaign.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,008
    DougSeal said:

    I’d like to apologise to the surprisingly large number of PBers that failed to quite grasp my Donald Sutherland joke. Tough gig, comedy.

    I got it. And extended it. I am a prophet not honoured in my own country... :)
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405
    This story is really about the timeless wisdom imparted by C&W music. If these guys wanted to play the game, boy, they shoulda learned to play it right.
  • I heard an interesting conspiracy theory a couple of years ago about the Brexit referendum that allegedly originated with mail workers.

    It was that the general shock from the top politicians when the result came in was because the spooks had seen to it that a large amount of remain postal ballots had been inserted into the system (much easier to do with a national referendum than 650 constituencies) to make sure of the result - and despite this they still lost.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,326
    Farooq said:

    So the SNP are contesting, what, 66 seats? How come their leader is part of the BBC grilling but the Reform leader, whose party is contesting almost all seats in the mainland, isn’t? Is the leader of Plainthere or not?

    3rd biggest party in the outgoing parliament, innit?
    This won't happen next election. What's the problem?
    The vast majority of the audience (studio and on TV) cannot vote for his party.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    DougSeal said:

    I’d like to apologise to the surprisingly large number of PBers that failed to quite grasp my Donald Sutherland joke. Tough gig, comedy.

    I got it, and am sure fellow our Bond fan @Casino_Royale would have done were he around.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,922

    I heard an interesting conspiracy theory a couple of years ago about the Brexit referendum that allegedly originated with mail workers.

    It was that the general shock from the top politicians when the result came in was because the spooks had seen to it that a large amount of remain postal ballots had been inserted into the system (much easier to do with a national referendum than 650 constituencies) to make sure of the result - and despite this they still lost.

    Sounds believable, yes.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,757
    viewcode said:

    DougSeal said:

    RIP Donald Sutherland. He was my favourite Blofeld in ‘You Only Live Twice’ and, more recently, knocked it out of the park as Jack Bauer in ‘24’. An exceptionally long and versatile career.

    His drama about Scottish law in the 1970's was also impressive, and his method acting as a Westminster constituency from 1801–1918 had to be seen to be believed.
    Sutherlands Law reference. I see, I +1.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,152
    DougSeal said:

    I’d like to apologise to the surprisingly large number of PBers that failed to quite grasp my Donald Sutherland joke. Tough gig, comedy.

    I was momentarily confused, then realised it must be a joke, then spent a few seconds remembering what Terry Wogan used to call Fabian Barthez...
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    viewcode said:

    DougSeal said:

    I’d like to apologise to the surprisingly large number of PBers that failed to quite grasp my Donald Sutherland joke. Tough gig, comedy.

    I got it. And extended it. I am a prophet not honoured in my own country... :)
    It was noted. When I take power you shall have riches beyond the dreams of someone who backed Truss for next PM in November 2022.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    It’s a tough gig for Swinney however. Most of the audience won’t know/care about Scotland.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,326
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    So the SNP are contesting, what, 66 seats? How come their leader is part of the BBC grilling but the Reform leader, whose party is contesting almost all seats in the mainland, isn’t? Is the leader of Plainthere or not?

    3rd biggest party in the outgoing parliament, innit?
    This won't happen next election. What's the problem?
    The vast majority of the audience (studio and on TV) cannot vote for his party.
    Correct. So what?
    So why is he up at a programme for leaders of parties who are contesting across the vast majority of seats?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    I think Swinney is quite good. At least in this format.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,754
    edited June 20
    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Not good, since it makes it more likely knee-jerk regulation will come our way.

    Someone needs to be the person to stand up for betters, and especially the way the bookies data mine the hell out of winners to restrict them to pennies.

    Hey bookie, if you’re offering a price you should be offering it to anyone and everyone.
    Hills have had my balls in a vice since I clawed over £1.6k off them for Liz Truss as next PM.
    I had a £10 bet knocked back to 87p (which I declined) this very afternoon.
    If you really think Truss will still be next PM, they should have taken your £10.
    Here is one I (or rather Ladbrokes) prepared earlier


  • DoubleDutchDoubleDutch Posts: 161

    I heard an interesting conspiracy theory a couple of

    Lost me in the first sentence
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,498
    edited June 20
    tlg86 said:

    Been resisting bringing this up, but I'm going to. Others may remember/know differently, but I'm sure OGH said he had sight of the 2010 Exit Poll at around 21:30 when he was at the BBC about to be interviewed by 5Live or something, but he said he wasn't in a position to do anything with it (I guess pre-smart phone). Perhaps he wouldn't have done anything, but if I remember rightly, he said it with frustration that he couldn't take advantage. I may be wrong.

    I only remember this story because I was shocked that the Exit Poll isn't top secret. Perhaps things are different these days with smart phones making betting on this sort of information being much easier.

    No, Mike's problem was he couldn't bet on his phone, he'd have to wait until he got in front of his laptop back home in Bedford, which would be around 11.30 pm which left him at a disadvantage.

    Average 3G speeds then were about 300 Kbps.

    On the spreads IIRC the Lib Dems were around 85 seats and the exit poll showed them going from 62 MPs to 57 MPs and as a buyer of the Lib Dems he couldn't close out his position.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,282

    DougSeal said:

    I’d like to apologise to the surprisingly large number of PBers that failed to quite grasp my Donald Sutherland joke. Tough gig, comedy.

    I got it, and am sure fellow our Bond fan @Casino_Royale would have done were he around.
    I got it.

    I'm also watching The Spy Who Loved Me right now, although that's not the reason.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    It must be my dirty mind, but I read it as: Caesar’s wife and all that jizz.

    Now "et tu Brute" makes a LOT more sense. Sorta.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,682
    edited June 20
    MikeL said:

    HYUFD said:

    Davey, Swinney, Starmer and Sunak on BBC QT tonight. Farage excluded so chance for Sunak to make some inroads

    Remember there is a bonus QT next week on Friday at 7pm - Farage and Green leader get 30 mins each.

    And no football clash against it.
    Yes but that will get overshadowed by the final Starmer v Sunak debate next Wednesday night in primetime at 9pm on BBC1
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,276

    I heard an interesting conspiracy theory a couple of years ago about the Brexit referendum that allegedly originated with mail workers.

    It was that the general shock from the top politicians when the result came in was because the spooks had seen to it that a large amount of remain postal ballots had been inserted into the system (much easier to do with a national referendum than 650 constituencies) to make sure of the result - and despite this they still lost.

    That's a nasty little conspiracy theory to try to deny that the country was genuinely split almost down the middle over the issue, by suggesting that actually Remain was much further behind. It's trying to make Remain voters unpeople who don't exist.

    You should pay things like that no heed at all.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,702
    Spain and Italy, but esp Spain, showing how to play football
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,492
    I think this is the first time in 20 years that the subject of this blogsite has been the main item in the news.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,498

    "For a lot of the current Tories ethics is a county in the East of England where a lot of the young ladies look like wotsits. Just because you can do something doesn’t mean you should do it."

    🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

    Yay, somebody spotted my subtle homophone/joke.
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 963
    NEW: Ed Davey believes the Liberal Democrats can win back the seats of Hazel Grove, Cheadle and Sheffield Hallam around Greater Manchester

    #bbcqt
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,682
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Essex is of course the home of ethical, moral upstanding people, just rather a lot of them also tanned and on Love Island...

    Any plans for the next series of Love Island @HYUFD. I might actually watch it if you were appearing. No change that - I would definitely watch it.
    Happily married I am afraid so not eligible
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,005

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    So the SNP are contesting, what, 66 seats? How come their leader is part of the BBC grilling but the Reform leader, whose party is contesting almost all seats in the mainland, isn’t? Is the leader of Plainthere or not?

    3rd biggest party in the outgoing parliament, innit?
    This won't happen next election. What's the problem?
    The vast majority of the audience (studio and on TV) cannot vote for his party.
    Correct. So what?
    So why is he up at a programme for leaders of parties who are contesting across the vast majority of seats?
    Because the BBC couldn't think of a reason to include Davey but exclude both Swinney and Farage.

    Base it on seats - Swinney
    Base it on polling- Farage
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,048

    DougSeal said:

    RIP Donald Sutherland. He was my favourite Blofeld in ‘You Only Live Twice’ and, more recently, knocked it out of the park as Jack Bauer in ‘24’. An exceptionally long and versatile career.

    Agreed. A superb and amazingly versatile actor. I think possibly my favourite out of many greats.

    Loved his Mr Bennet in Pride and Prejudice and the fab version of Invasin of the Body Snatchers. But there are dozens of films where he shone.

    Woof woof woof.
    If that’s your other dog impression, you need a dog for scale
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,498
    Sandpit said:

    If Nadine Dorries is right then I may die of happiness this weekend.

    Will Sunak step down at the weekend and ask @David_Cameron to step in?

    Would he rather be an MP who loses his seat rather than the first PM to lose in living history?

    The day after the night before is an issue. The party will be in free fall.

    DC won’t want to do so but he is a man who has a strong sense of public duty and experience who would put party before self.

    Just a thought …


    https://x.com/NadineDorries/status/1803732654258340277

    So Mr TSE what first attracted you to the Mone ennobling, Brexit enabling, Greensill ramping, forehead-polishing, Old Etonian David Cameron?
    His devotion to duty and his family.
    Devotion to duty.

    "Sorry Remain lost. I'm off."
    I'll let you into a little secret, had he not have retired, plenty of Tory MPs were prepared to force him out and they have enough numbers to damage him.

    He decided to not prolong the agony.
    He still should have owned it and stayed on to work through the negotiations.
    They wouldn't have allowed it. Their argument was the man who they considered got a poor renegotiation shouldn't be allowed to deal with the exit agreement.
  • DoubleDutchDoubleDutch Posts: 161
    MikeL said:

    HYUFD said:

    Davey, Swinney, Starmer and Sunak on BBC QT tonight. Farage excluded so chance for Sunak to make some inroads

    Remember there is a bonus QT next week on Friday at 7pm - Farage and Green leader get 30 mins each.

    And no football clash against it.
    This Spain v Italy is a great battle.

    1000 x better than a QT debate
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Sandpit said:

    Not good, since it makes it more likely knee-jerk regulation will come our way.

    Someone needs to be the person to stand up for betters, and especially the way the bookies data mine the hell out of winners to restrict them to pennies.

    Hey bookie, if you’re offering a price you should be offering it to anyone and everyone.
    Hills have had my balls in a vice since I clawed over £1.6k off them for Liz Truss as next PM.
    No wonder you've been a tad tetchy from time to time!
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,449
    Andy_JS said:

    This feels like Swinney giving a lecture to an English audience on the finer points of Scottish politics.

    With Fiona Bruce feeling the need to step in after every question and answer with a "just for viewers south of the border..." explanation of what had just been said.

    It's a really poor format.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,081

    kinabalu said:

    RobD said:

    Eds time is up

    Thought he was quite good.
    He was. He has a Hugh Bonneville vibe.
    You mean he has a load of Super Injuctions for shagging around?

    I am struggling to believe that about Ed.
    None of that in Paddington or Downton.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,813
    Andy_JS said:

    I think this is the first time in 20 years that the subject of this blogsite has been the main item in the news.

    They are discussing how appalling Radiohead are live?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,498

    Sandpit said:

    If Nadine Dorries is right then I may die of happiness this weekend.

    Will Sunak step down at the weekend and ask @David_Cameron to step in?

    Would he rather be an MP who loses his seat rather than the first PM to lose in living history?

    The day after the night before is an issue. The party will be in free fall.

    DC won’t want to do so but he is a man who has a strong sense of public duty and experience who would put party before self.

    Just a thought …


    https://x.com/NadineDorries/status/1803732654258340277

    So Mr TSE what first attracted you to the Mone ennobling, Brexit enabling, Greensill ramping, forehead-polishing, Old Etonian David Cameron?
    His devotion to duty and his family.
    Devotion to duty.

    "Sorry Remain lost. I'm off."
    I'll let you into a little secret, had he not have retired, plenty of Tory MPs were prepared to force him out and they have enough numbers to damage him.

    He decided to not prolong the agony.
    He still should have owned it and stayed on to work through the negotiations.
    They wouldn't have allowed it. Their argument was the man who they considered got a poor renegotiation shouldn't be allowed to deal with the exit agreement.
    It was a flawed strategy from the beginning. He should have stood aloof from the campaign or done a Tsipras and backed a Leave vote on the basis that he wasn't given enough by the EU.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,326
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    So the SNP are contesting, what, 66 seats? How come their leader is part of the BBC grilling but the Reform leader, whose party is contesting almost all seats in the mainland, isn’t? Is the leader of Plainthere or not?

    3rd biggest party in the outgoing parliament, innit?
    This won't happen next election. What's the problem?
    The vast majority of the audience (studio and on TV) cannot vote for his party.
    Correct. So what?
    So why is he up at a programme for leaders of parties who are contesting across the vast majority of seats?
    Presumably because the SNP were the third biggest party in the parliament that just finished, the biggest in Scotland, and that the format of this particular debate isn't what you think it is.
    This isn’t an anti Scotland thing, if that’s why your hackles are rising. What is the format then? Is it all leaders spread over two weeks? Because it doesn’t look like that.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,048

    I heard an interesting conspiracy theory a couple of years ago about the Brexit referendum that allegedly originated with mail workers.

    It was that the general shock from the top politicians when the result came in was because the spooks had seen to it that a large amount of remain postal ballots had been inserted into the system (much easier to do with a national referendum than 650 constituencies) to make sure of the result - and despite this they still lost.

    The stupidity is plausible.

    Napoleon said - “Let them vote. My brother will count the votes.”
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Essex is of course the home of ethical, moral upstanding people, just rather a lot of them also tanned and on Love Island...

    Any plans for the next series of Love Island @HYUFD. I might actually watch it if you were appearing. No change that - I would definitely watch it.
    Happily married I am afraid so not eligible
    I’m sure they’d make an exception
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    What's the difference between a 150 seat and a 300 seat majority. Other things being equal, which of course they aren't, probably around 2 five year terms, i.e. 10 years.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,813
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    RobD said:

    Eds time is up

    Thought he was quite good.
    He was. He has a Hugh Bonneville vibe.
    You mean he has a load of Super Injuctions for shagging around?

    I am struggling to believe that about Ed.
    None of that in Paddington or Downton.
    I heard that Paddington is a right one.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,152

    tlg86 said:

    Been resisting bringing this up, but I'm going to. Others may remember/know differently, but I'm sure OGH said he had sight of the 2010 Exit Poll at around 21:30 when he was at the BBC about to be interviewed by 5Live or something, but he said he wasn't in a position to do anything with it (I guess pre-smart phone). Perhaps he wouldn't have done anything, but if I remember rightly, he said it with frustration that he couldn't take advantage. I may be wrong.

    I only remember this story because I was shocked that the Exit Poll isn't top secret. Perhaps things are different these days with smart phones making betting on this sort of information being much easier.

    No, Mike's problem was he couldn't bet on his phone, he'd have to wait until he got in front of his laptop back home in Bedford, which would be around 11.30 pm which left him at a disadvantage.

    Average 3G speeds then were about 300 Kbps.

    On the spreads IIRC the Lib Dems were around 85 seats and the exit poll showed them going from 62 MPs to 57 MPs and as a buyer of the Lib Dems he couldn't close out his position.
    Thanks, so I am right that he would have taken advantage if he could. The exit poll is far more important than any opinion poll you might have early sight of.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,282

    What's the difference between a 150 seat and a 300 seat majority. Other things being equal, which of course they aren't, probably around 2 five year terms, i.e. 10 years.

    Why? That presupposes there's a limit to what can be lost in just one election.

    I don't think there's any such limit.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,074
    Sandpit said:

    algarkirk said:
    There are cartoonists, and then there’s Matt Pritchett.

    He gets paid more than the editor, and you can see why.
    What I don't get is that his cartoons appear to be free to view by everyone, on a website that isn't the Telegraph.

    Why do they not more closely guard their best asset?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,578

    RobD said:

    Eds time is up

    Thought he was quite good.
    Paragon of unbiased views Harry Cole says he got duffed up
    He got some tough questions on student fees, Horizon scandal etc. I thought he handled them well. Positive head nodding in the audience. 8/10
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,404

    DougSeal said:

    RIP Donald Sutherland. He was my favourite Blofeld in ‘You Only Live Twice’ and, more recently, knocked it out of the park as Jack Bauer in ‘24’. An exceptionally long and versatile career.

    Agreed. A superb and amazingly versatile actor. I think possibly my favourite out of many greats.

    Loved his Mr Bennet in Pride and Prejudice and the fab version of Invasin of the Body Snatchers. But there are dozens of films where he shone.

    Woof woof woof.
    If that’s your other dog impression, you need a dog for scale
    Oh you philistine. It was a tribute to the great Oddball. ;)
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,883

    kinabalu said:

    RobD said:

    Eds time is up

    Thought he was quite good.
    He was. He has a Hugh Bonneville vibe.
    You mean he has a load of Super Injuctions for shagging around?

    I am struggling to believe that about Ed.
    I'm struggling to believe that about Hugh...
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,404

    I heard an interesting conspiracy theory a couple of years ago about the Brexit referendum that allegedly originated with mail workers.

    It was that the general shock from the top politicians when the result came in was because the spooks had seen to it that a large amount of remain postal ballots had been inserted into the system (much easier to do with a national referendum than 650 constituencies) to make sure of the result - and despite this they still lost.

    There is a conspiracy theory about Brexit and postal ballots, but it's not that.

    In 2007, Chris Huhne and Nick Clegg were the contenders in the LibDem leadership election. Clegg won narrowly: 20988 to 20477.

    Except it took place in December. 1300 votes got delayed in the Christmas post. Clegg was declared the winner before the late-arriving ballots had been counted. When they were finally counted, it turns out Huhne would have won.

    We know the rest. Clegg became LibDem leader and went into coalition with the Conservatives. It's safe to say Huhne would rather have sandpapered his eyeballs than do that. But even if he had, Huhne's political career would come to an end in 2012/13 with the speeding fine affair.

    So: either no coalition, or a coalition that collapsed in 2012. No need for Cameron to promise a Brexit referendum in the 2015 campaign. No Brexit.

    Thanks, posties!
    He would simply have promised a referendum earlier.
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 792
    edited June 20
    The volume numbers are very silly, in at least two respects:

    1. There was plenty of market making very short term trading going on, both automated and manual. It's not as though there was a £3 million single bet.
    2. Betfair (and almost any derivative) volume numbers don't make any sense anyway... well they make sense, but they don't mean what journalists mean. Except Betfair in particular really doesn't make sense. I previously posted about how Betfair and Polymarket volume figures are not comparable. Well Polymarket's volume figures make more sense to me logically (basically they treat it as if it's a binary and quote the notional value * number of lots). But notional volume in that sense can lead to absolutely enormous numbers - see the STIRs markets for example, where there's plenty of people (or were a decade ago) trying to make £12.50, best case, on a notional volume of £1million. Totally meaningless numbers.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    If Nadine Dorries is right then I may die of happiness this weekend.

    Will Sunak step down at the weekend and ask @David_Cameron to step in?

    Would he rather be an MP who loses his seat rather than the first PM to lose in living history?

    The day after the night before is an issue. The party will be in free fall.

    DC won’t want to do so but he is a man who has a strong sense of public duty and experience who would put party before self.

    Just a thought …


    https://x.com/NadineDorries/status/1803732654258340277

    So Mr TSE what first attracted you to the Mone ennobling, Brexit enabling, Greensill ramping, forehead-polishing, Old Etonian David Cameron?
    Austerity?
  • DoubleDutchDoubleDutch Posts: 161

    "For a lot of the current Tories ethics is a county in the East of England where a lot of the young ladies look like wotsits. Just because you can do something doesn’t mean you should do it."

    🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

    Yay, somebody spotted my subtle homophone/joke.
    I spotted it too.

    40 years ago.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,509
    Ratters said:

    Sandpit said:

    algarkirk said:
    There are cartoonists, and then there’s Matt Pritchett.

    He gets paid more than the editor, and you can see why.
    What I don't get is that his cartoons appear to be free to view by everyone, on a website that isn't the Telegraph.

    Why do they not more closely guard their best asset?
    He has standing offers from the Mail and the Sun, and the proprietor has made it clear to the editor that losing Matt would be a resigning matter (for the editor).
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,484

    I heard an interesting conspiracy theory a couple of years ago about the Brexit referendum that allegedly originated with mail workers.

    It was that the general shock from the top politicians when the result came in was because the spooks had seen to it that a large amount of remain postal ballots had been inserted into the system (much easier to do with a national referendum than 650 constituencies) to make sure of the result - and despite this they still lost.

    That's a nasty little conspiracy theory to try to deny that the country was genuinely split almost down the middle over the issue, by suggesting that actually Remain was much further behind. It's trying to make Remain voters unpeople who don't exist.

    You should pay things like that no heed at all.
    Yebbut - it expalins the higher turnout than in general elections....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,498

    If Nadine Dorries is right then I may die of happiness this weekend.

    Will Sunak step down at the weekend and ask @David_Cameron to step in?

    Would he rather be an MP who loses his seat rather than the first PM to lose in living history?

    The day after the night before is an issue. The party will be in free fall.

    DC won’t want to do so but he is a man who has a strong sense of public duty and experience who would put party before self.

    Just a thought …


    https://x.com/NadineDorries/status/1803732654258340277

    So Mr TSE what first attracted you to the Mone ennobling, Brexit enabling, Greensill ramping, forehead-polishing, Old Etonian David Cameron?
    Austerity?
    That too, I am in favour of sound money.

    I am in favour of all the good government we can afford.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846

    Gaussian said:

    viewcode said:

    I count myself accursed that this dipshit middle-class morality still holds sway in the UK

    "...Jim Waterson·Jun 20, 2024 @jimwaterson. For the first four months of the year people are gambling a few quid here and there on July. It's just messing about. People are having fun and guessing..."

    It isn't messing about you [rudeword][rudeword]. If a thing is worth doing it is worth doing seriously. I *LOATHE* this "only messing about/a bit of fun" dipshittery. There are many things about Britain that I hate, and this middle-class blue-shirted open-collar pious commentariat cohort is one of them, where nothing ever really matters, nothing is ever taken seriously, nobody is held to account, and politics is just a podcast. GAMBLING IS LEGAL. YOU ARE ALLOWED TO DO IT.

    [rudeword that gets you banned from PB]

    Not £100....100 whole pounds. I think he would have a heart attack if he saw how much I used to have in play every day. Clue, more than the total for the 21st May.

    Tony Bloom's betting slips were reported to have been in the £10's millions every Saturday.
    I find it rather mind boggling how trivial the amounts involved are compared to how obviously terrible this looks for an election candidate.
    Its absolutely moronic. There is no real liquidity in these novelty markets, so there isn't even life changing money on the line. So you risk this for a few £100. You got to be an absolute brain dead. That spike to several £1000 staked in one day will have already set off alarm bells at the bookies.
    Indeed. At least the Tory PPE crooks managed to walk away with £millions.
  • I heard an interesting conspiracy theory a couple of years ago about the Brexit referendum that allegedly originated with mail workers.

    It was that the general shock from the top politicians when the result came in was because the spooks had seen to it that a large amount of remain postal ballots had been inserted into the system (much easier to do with a national referendum than 650 constituencies) to make sure of the result - and despite this they still lost.

    That's a nasty little conspiracy theory to try to deny that the country was genuinely split almost down the middle over the issue, by suggesting that actually Remain was much further behind. It's trying to make Remain voters unpeople who don't exist.

    You should pay things like that no heed at all.
    Yebbut - it expalins the higher turnout than in general elections....
    And, possibly, the lack of any even mild attempt to engineer a rematch, given the closeness of the result.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,152

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Been resisting bringing this up, but I'm going to. Others may remember/know differently, but I'm sure OGH said he had sight of the 2010 Exit Poll at around 21:30 when he was at the BBC about to be interviewed by 5Live or something, but he said he wasn't in a position to do anything with it (I guess pre-smart phone). Perhaps he wouldn't have done anything, but if I remember rightly, he said it with frustration that he couldn't take advantage. I may be wrong.

    I only remember this story because I was shocked that the Exit Poll isn't top secret. Perhaps things are different these days with smart phones making betting on this sort of information being much easier.

    No, Mike's problem was he couldn't bet on his phone, he'd have to wait until he got in front of his laptop back home in Bedford, which would be around 11.30 pm which left him at a disadvantage.

    Average 3G speeds then were about 300 Kbps.

    On the spreads IIRC the Lib Dems were around 85 seats and the exit poll showed them going from 62 MPs to 57 MPs and as a buyer of the Lib Dems he couldn't close out his position.
    Thanks, so I am right that he would have taken advantage if he could. The exit poll is far more important than any opinion poll you might have early sight of.
    No, he would have waited until 10pm like everybody else.

    His frustration was that by going to the BBC studios he was left in a worse position than the average punter at 10pm.
    No, sorry, that's bollocks. You don't get to see such information and then wait until 10pm like everyone else.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,191

    I heard an interesting conspiracy theory a couple of years ago about the Brexit referendum that allegedly originated with mail workers.

    It was that the general shock from the top politicians when the result came in was because the spooks had seen to it that a large amount of remain postal ballots had been inserted into the system (much easier to do with a national referendum than 650 constituencies) to make sure of the result - and despite this they still lost.

    That's a nasty little conspiracy theory to try to deny that the country was genuinely split almost down the middle over the issue, by suggesting that actually Remain was much further behind. It's trying to make Remain voters unpeople who don't exist.

    You should pay things like that no heed at all.
    It also implies that our spooks aren't able to fiddle a vote effectively.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,081

    What's the difference between a 150 seat and a 300 seat majority. Other things being equal, which of course they aren't, probably around 2 five year terms, i.e. 10 years.

    Why? That presupposes there's a limit to what can be lost in just one election.

    I don't think there's any such limit.
    That's precisely what is being demonstrated now. Landslide one way doesn't preclude landslide the other way next time.
  • Farooq said:

    I heard an interesting conspiracy theory a couple of years ago about the Brexit referendum that allegedly originated with mail workers.

    It was that the general shock from the top politicians when the result came in was because the spooks had seen to it that a large amount of remain postal ballots had been inserted into the system (much easier to do with a national referendum than 650 constituencies) to make sure of the result - and despite this they still lost.

    Oh, this nonsense reminds me that I never got around to telling you to fuck off for calling for people to be drowned.

    So, er, fuck off.

    There, glad I got that off my chest.
    Charming. Especially, given that I did no such thing.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,498
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Been resisting bringing this up, but I'm going to. Others may remember/know differently, but I'm sure OGH said he had sight of the 2010 Exit Poll at around 21:30 when he was at the BBC about to be interviewed by 5Live or something, but he said he wasn't in a position to do anything with it (I guess pre-smart phone). Perhaps he wouldn't have done anything, but if I remember rightly, he said it with frustration that he couldn't take advantage. I may be wrong.

    I only remember this story because I was shocked that the Exit Poll isn't top secret. Perhaps things are different these days with smart phones making betting on this sort of information being much easier.

    No, Mike's problem was he couldn't bet on his phone, he'd have to wait until he got in front of his laptop back home in Bedford, which would be around 11.30 pm which left him at a disadvantage.

    Average 3G speeds then were about 300 Kbps.

    On the spreads IIRC the Lib Dems were around 85 seats and the exit poll showed them going from 62 MPs to 57 MPs and as a buyer of the Lib Dems he couldn't close out his position.
    Thanks, so I am right that he would have taken advantage if he could. The exit poll is far more important than any opinion poll you might have early sight of.
    No, he would have waited until 10pm like everybody else.

    His frustration was that by going to the BBC studios he was left in a worse position than the average punter at 10pm.
    No, sorry, that's bollocks. You don't get to see such information and then wait until 10pm like everyone else.
    Sporting would cancel Mike's account (and anybody else's account) if they suspect they had early sight of the exit poll.

    Plus it is likely to meet the threshold for insider dealing unlike a bet with Ladbrokes of William Hill.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,509

    Farooq said:

    I heard an interesting conspiracy theory a couple of years ago about the Brexit referendum that allegedly originated with mail workers.

    It was that the general shock from the top politicians when the result came in was because the spooks had seen to it that a large amount of remain postal ballots had been inserted into the system (much easier to do with a national referendum than 650 constituencies) to make sure of the result - and despite this they still lost.

    Oh, this nonsense reminds me that I never got around to telling you to fuck off for calling for people to be drowned.

    So, er, fuck off.

    There, glad I got that off my chest.
    Charming. Especially, given that I did no such thing.
    Join the club.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Ratters said:

    Sandpit said:

    algarkirk said:
    There are cartoonists, and then there’s Matt Pritchett.

    He gets paid more than the editor, and you can see why.
    What I don't get is that his cartoons appear to be free to view by everyone, on a website that isn't the Telegraph.

    Why do they not more closely guard their best asset?
    Because Matt wrote his own contract?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,484
    I see Trump Media and Technology Group has dropped from $51.84 to $26.75 - just this month.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,346

    I heard an interesting conspiracy theory a couple of years ago about the Brexit referendum that allegedly originated with mail workers.

    It was that the general shock from the top politicians when the result came in was because the spooks had seen to it that a large amount of remain postal ballots had been inserted into the system (much easier to do with a national referendum than 650 constituencies) to make sure of the result - and despite this they still lost.

    That's a nasty little conspiracy theory to try to deny that the country was genuinely split almost down the middle over the issue, by suggesting that actually Remain was much further behind. It's trying to make Remain voters unpeople who don't exist.

    You should pay things like that no heed at all.
    Yebbut - it expalins the higher turnout than in general elections....
    It seems not wholly unlikely. The EU was seen by those in charge (the USA) as integral to US/UK/EU relationships going forward. We were the US's man inside the EU, ensuring they stayed US-aligned. Remember 'back of the queue.' Every trick in the book was always going to be deployed to get Remain over the line.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,498
    Starmer struggling with the Corbyn as PM question.
This discussion has been closed.