Now would be a good time to repeat my premonition that the Portillo moment will be a prominent Labour MP in a Leave constituency losing unexpectedly to Reform.
Now would be a good time to repeat my premonition that the Portillo moment will be a prominent Labour MP in a Leave constituency losing unexpectedly to Reform.
It absolutely will happen if the Farage surge is genuine
I think all the PBers claiming that this is a fraudulent poll are treading on very thin ice. OGH had a firm rule that you do NOT impugn pollsters without serious evidence, esp if they are members of the BPC (I presume they are?)
Unlike most of the other pollsters People Polling are untested at a general election.
They have also had to revise some of their previous polls because they cocked up their data tables/spreadsheets.
The other issue is People Polling's supplementaries have been openly discussed by other pollsters and polling experts as being so one sided as to be utterly irrelevant.
Then how come they are memnbers of the BPC? Surely they should be expelled?
Serious question. Because a fraudulent poll if exploded at the right time could actually change the direction of the elevtion, eg a poll which showed Reform easily and dramatically overtaking the Tories
Which this does
IF this is shown to be fraudulent then the coppers need to feel collars, this is serious shit
I don’t see anything strange from the data tables . My only question is what order they were asked . I’d be surprised if they didn’t go with the normal sequencing as that would lead to bias .
We’ll know soon enough whether this is an outlier . Certainly it might wake up both Labour and the Tories in particular to start going after Reform .
A single released in 1997 by Shania Twain is more relevant.
Are you claiming that People Polling are lying fraudsters, producing bogus figures?
I think they've started with a conclusion they want and worked backwards to find a method to get it.
As untested and as much credibility as Trafalgar which was rightly and roundly mocked whenever its polls were quoted here.
No. RCS Found evidence that Trafalgar figures were actually falsified, and not a single member of the public contracted to generate them.
People Polling use an online panel from a different polling form to collect their sample. They might be doing something very wrong, but no-one has presented any evidence to suggest that the results are fake or skewed.
I don't much care for Goodwin's political commentary, but I think you're out of order to equate these polls with Trafalgar without any evidence.
It's safe to say that the one thing the election will do is lead to a debate about what conservatism or the political right in general ought to look like in the current world.
Several of us have speculated that Tory/Reform polling might reach a tipping point where voting Tory is seen as a waste of time and Reform as the tactical vote to stop Labour. Is it really a surprise that it might happen? And Reform have just had a lot of coverage of their manifesto, which will have been attractive to the credulous and disgruntled. Is it really a surprise that someone promising lots of free giveaways will win support?
It might prove to be a bubble, but I think it's completely unwarranted for people to suggest that this poll result is fabricated, without a scintilla of evidence.
The Tories are almost completely unwilling to criticise Farage. Many of them wish they had had the foresight or courage to have defected to him earlier, when they had the chance. Is it a surprise that Reform should do well in the polls when they receive a free pass from much of one of the parties that should be opposing them?
Good point. Is this a Manifesto effect?
On my fam Whatsapp a member of my fam who is centrist Tory (voted Blair at his peak) said this
"I am afraid to admit I agree with almost everything in the Reform manifesto"
It surprised me at the time
To go back to what I was talking about earlier, I think it's the cordon sanitaire being broken. Just as it has been in France.
When none of your friends and family are willing to own up to being Farage supporters, you keep schtum. Once one or two come out and say it, and you've been leaning that way for a while, you go "yeah, actually I think they make a lot of sense, too..." and it becomes a bit of an I am Spartacus moment for all the people who've read the RefUK manifesto and gone, that makes a lot of sense actually.
And then it goes from being a network effect to becoming a snowball effect. The right wing press switch allegiances. "Only Reform can stop Labour" etc, and all of a sudden you have crossover, and you have Nige as the LOTO in next month's time.
Will it happen? Probably not. COULD it happen at this point? Absolutely.
If Reform have done well, I guess we’ll see it in the first few NE seats. By “well” I mean the difference between the 14/15 many of us have priced in and right teens/low twenties we see in some polls.
That feels like the prime opportunity to make money.
I've had a couple of private messages in the last 24 hours from right-wing friends, driven by the close to 1,000 crossings yesterday, half-seriously asking if we now need to "sink a few boats" to stop it.
Meanwhile legal immigration is several orders of magnitude greater than the rounding error that is small boats. Even as a proportion of asylum claims small boats is a small minority.
Good evening
It is simply against Maritime law to arbitrarily sink boats and the outcry would be deafening
No one told the Greek Coastguard
Are you trying to justify a rogue coastguard ignoring Mariime law and anyway the coastguard will have the law to deal with
It is a shocking development that anyone could even think of sinking boats with migrants, and who has to deal with the consequences of rescuing those in peril but the crews of the RNLI and border force boats risking their own lives
Shocking to those of us leading comfortable lives in agreeable houses.
Not so much to those who havent seen a decent pay rise in years due to immigrant competition for low/unskilled Labour, whos rent is going up for a poor quality s***hole due to competition from migrants chasing the same housing stock, and pull their rotten teeth out with pliers as they cannot get a dentist. Then see on the news that illegal enterers are collected and put up in hotels with free food.
And there are rather a lot of the latter.
As I have said, unless decent leaders on occasion do indecent things on occasion for the greater good (like Churchill sinking the French fleet in Mers-El-Kebir killing thousands of French Sailors), they are replaced by indecent leaders who will do very indecent things.
The decent leader doing indecent thing in this occasion would be deporting all males of military age entering the country Illegally on such boats to Kigali in short order without appeal.
The indecent leader doing a very indecent thing would use the Navy to sink a boat pour les encouragement les autres.
I never thought I would read on here such a shocking and unacceptable statement
It truely saddens me and maybe if you had witnessed a woman or a child drown in such circumstances as the rescuers have then you would discover your humanity
How is it shocking and unacceptable to say "The indecent leader doing a very indecent thing would use the Navy to sink a boat pour les encouragement les autres. "?
Think you need to read what I wrote more carefully. I am warning that if good people do nothing then bad people get control and do very unpleasant things.
I like you am one of the people who live in agreeable houses in some comfort who would find such things shocking.
If Reform have done well, I guess we’ll see it in the first few NE seats. By “well” I mean the difference between the 14/15 many of us have priced in and right teens/low twenties we see in some polls.
That feels like the prime opportunity to make money.
I don’t see anything strange from the data tables . My only question is what order they were asked . I’d be surprised if they didn’t go with the normal sequencing as that would lead to bias .
We’ll know soon enough whether this is an outlier . Certainly it might wake up both Labour and the Tories in particular to start going after Reform .
Tories have tried and failed to do that. Catastrophically. Labour will sneer at Farage and the voters. Also catastrophic.
I've had a couple of private messages in the last 24 hours from right-wing friends, driven by the close to 1,000 crossings yesterday, half-seriously asking if we now need to "sink a few boats" to stop it.
Meanwhile legal immigration is several orders of magnitude greater than the rounding error that is small boats. Even as a proportion of asylum claims small boats is a small minority.
Good evening
It is simply against Maritime law to arbitrarily sink boats and the outcry would be deafening
No one told the Greek Coastguard
Are you trying to justify a rogue coastguard ignoring Mariime law and anyway the coastguard will have the law to deal with
It is a shocking development that anyone could even think of sinking boats with migrants, and who has to deal with the consequences of rescuing those in peril but the crews of the RNLI and border force boats risking their own lives
Shocking to those of us leading comfortable lives in agreeable houses.
Not so much to those who havent seen a decent pay rise in years due to immigrant competition for low/unskilled Labour, whos rent is going up for a poor quality s***hole due to competition from migrants chasing the same housing stock, and pull their rotten teeth out with pliers as they cannot get a dentist. Then see on the news that illegal enterers are collected and put up in hotels with free food.
And there are rather a lot of the latter.
As I have said, unless decent leaders on occasion do indecent things on occasion for the greater good (like Churchill sinking the French fleet in Mers-El-Kebir killing thousands of French Sailors), they are replaced by indecent leaders who will do very indecent things.
The decent leader doing indecent thing in this occasion would be deporting all males of military age entering the country Illegally on such boats to Kigali in short order without appeal.
The indecent leader doing a very indecent thing would use the Navy to sink a boat pour les encouragement les autres.
I never thought I would read on here such a shocking and unacceptable statement
It truely saddens me and maybe if you had witnessed a woman or a child drown in such circumstances as the rescuers have then you would discover your humanity
That this kind of thinking is considered acceptable in some quarters is the consequence of the government demonising migrants for their own political advantage. They richly deserve to be wiped out.
I'm probably going to vote for Reform. Possible I might vote Labour to ensure the wet who is standing for Mid Beds is defeated.
But probably I will vote Reform to kick them all in the nuts. The pompous prattle here that farage is Mosley/Hitler/Sundry Fascist is making my mind up.
Centrist liberals disagreeing with non centrist liberal views is one thing. Centrist liberals considering non centrist liberal views as beneath contempt and ideally disbarred is another matter entirely.
I hope they do well enough to destroy the Conservative Party and take over what remains, turning it into a less economically right wing and more socially right wing party. Along the lines of places like South Korea, and (modern) Japan. Not Nazi Germany.
Good luck. I don't think Farage is a fascist, though I think some fascists will vote for him. He is horrible but not horrible enough to be a fascist. He is only very doubtfully a 'liberal'. His defence of Trump in deeply illiberal matters is enough to cause real doubt. His manifesto nods very clearly to QAnon style conspiracy theorists, and the ones I know believe he is their man. A person is judged in part by the company he keeps.
BTW the number of people who want the UK to be a Japan/S Korea style society is small.
C’mon, this is POLITICS. How can you not love this?
Because they are now terrified. lol
THIS IS THE BEST ELECTION EVER
Also, this is the most dramatic UK election poll I can remember in my adult life
Does anything compare? The poll showing YES ahead in Sindyref, but that was a referendum
Even if this is an outlier (and I suspect it it) it is enormously entertaining, as you say
As an ardent Lib Dem I’ve never been more politically excited than during the Cleggasm stage of the 2010 election campaign. I was staying with my uncle at the time who was a massive Labour supporter and the banter was just incredible. Of course election night was like coming down from a massive sugar rush.
I've had a couple of private messages in the last 24 hours from right-wing friends, driven by the close to 1,000 crossings yesterday, half-seriously asking if we now need to "sink a few boats" to stop it.
Meanwhile legal immigration is several orders of magnitude greater than the rounding error that is small boats. Even as a proportion of asylum claims small boats is a small minority.
Good evening
It is simply against Maritime law to arbitrarily sink boats and the outcry would be deafening
No one told the Greek Coastguard
Are you trying to justify a rogue coastguard ignoring Mariime law and anyway the coastguard will have the law to deal with
It is a shocking development that anyone could even think of sinking boats with migrants, and who has to deal with the consequences of rescuing those in peril but the crews of the RNLI and border force boats risking their own lives
Shocking to those of us leading comfortable lives in agreeable houses.
Not so much to those who havent seen a decent pay rise in years due to immigrant competition for low/unskilled Labour, whos rent is going up for a poor quality s***hole due to competition from migrants chasing the same housing stock, and pull their rotten teeth out with pliers as they cannot get a dentist. Then see on the news that illegal enterers are collected and put up in hotels with free food.
And there are rather a lot of the latter.
As I have said, unless decent leaders on occasion do indecent things on occasion for the greater good (like Churchill sinking the French fleet in Mers-El-Kebir killing thousands of French Sailors), they are replaced by indecent leaders who will do very indecent things.
The decent leader doing indecent thing in this occasion would be deporting all males of military age entering the country Illegally on such boats to Kigali in short order without appeal.
The indecent leader doing a very indecent thing would use the Navy to sink a boat pour les encouragement les autres.
I never thought I would read on here such a shocking and unacceptable statement
It truely saddens me and maybe if you had witnessed a woman or a child drown in such circumstances as the rescuers have then you would discover your humanity
How is it shocking and unacceptable to say "The indecent leader doing a very indecent thing would use the Navy to sink a boat pour les encouragement les autres. "?
Think you need to read what I wrote more carefully. I am warning that if good people do nothing then bad people get control and do very unpleasant things.
I read what you wrote and it is unacceptable and shocking
And to think last night I confirmed my youngest son has just been appointed as a Llandudno Inshore Lifeboat helm, much to the family's pride and many on here liking my post, and you want him and his colleague to attend the deliberate sinking of a boat with all the trauma for those concerned
If Reform have done well, I guess we’ll see it in the first few NE seats. By “well” I mean the difference between the 14/15 many of us have priced in and right teens/low twenties we see in some polls.
That feels like the prime opportunity to make money.
C’mon, this is POLITICS. How can you not love this?
Because they are now terrified. lol
THIS IS THE BEST ELECTION EVER
Also, this is the most dramatic UK election poll I can remember in my adult life
Does anything compare? The poll showing YES ahead in Sindyref, but that was a referendum
Even if this is an outlier (and I suspect it it) it is enormously entertaining, as you say
The thing is, after all the crazy things that have happened since 2016, you wouldn't entirely discount the chance of something crazy happening again...
C’mon, this is POLITICS. How can you not love this?
Because they are now terrified. lol
THIS IS THE BEST ELECTION EVER
Also, this is the most dramatic UK election poll I can remember in my adult life
Does anything compare? The poll showing YES ahead in Sindyref, but that was a referendum
Even if this is an outlier (and I suspect it it) it is enormously entertaining, as you say
As an ardent Lib Dem I’ve never been more politically excited than during the Cleggasm stage of the 2010 election campaign. I was staying with my uncle at the time who was a massive Labour supporter and the banter was just incredible. Of course election night was like coming down from a massive sugar rush.
The Cleggasm was quite something, HOWEVER it did not presage the extinction of one of the two major parties. This does, so I suggest this is even bigger
I've had a couple of private messages in the last 24 hours from right-wing friends, driven by the close to 1,000 crossings yesterday, half-seriously asking if we now need to "sink a few boats" to stop it.
Meanwhile legal immigration is several orders of magnitude greater than the rounding error that is small boats. Even as a proportion of asylum claims small boats is a small minority.
Good evening
It is simply against Maritime law to arbitrarily sink boats and the outcry would be deafening
No one told the Greek Coastguard
Are you trying to justify a rogue coastguard ignoring Mariime law and anyway the coastguard will have the law to deal with
It is a shocking development that anyone could even think of sinking boats with migrants, and who has to deal with the consequences of rescuing those in peril but the crews of the RNLI and border force boats risking their own lives
Shocking to those of us leading comfortable lives in agreeable houses.
Not so much to those who havent seen a decent pay rise in years due to immigrant competition for low/unskilled Labour, whos rent is going up for a poor quality s***hole due to competition from migrants chasing the same housing stock, and pull their rotten teeth out with pliers as they cannot get a dentist. Then see on the news that illegal enterers are collected and put up in hotels with free food.
And there are rather a lot of the latter.
As I have said, unless decent leaders on occasion do indecent things on occasion for the greater good (like Churchill sinking the French fleet in Mers-El-Kebir killing thousands of French Sailors), they are replaced by indecent leaders who will do very indecent things.
The decent leader doing indecent thing in this occasion would be deporting all males of military age entering the country Illegally on such boats to Kigali in short order without appeal.
The indecent leader doing a very indecent thing would use the Navy to sink a boat pour les encouragement les autres.
I never thought I would read on here such a shocking and unacceptable statement
It truely saddens me and maybe if you had witnessed a woman or a child drown in such circumstances as the rescuers have then you would discover your humanity
How is it shocking and unacceptable to say "The indecent leader doing a very indecent thing would use the Navy to sink a boat pour les encouragement les autres. "?
Think you need to read what I wrote more carefully. I am warning that if good people do nothing then bad people get control and do very unpleasant things.
I like you am one of the people who live in agreeable houses in some comfort who would find such things shocking.
Drivel.
Your post called for leaders to do "indecent things ... for the greater good".
C’mon, this is POLITICS. How can you not love this?
Because they are now terrified. lol
THIS IS THE BEST ELECTION EVER
Also, this is the most dramatic UK election poll I can remember in my adult life
Does anything compare? The poll showing YES ahead in Sindyref, but that was a referendum
Even if this is an outlier (and I suspect it it) it is enormously entertaining, as you say
Remember the Cleggasm polls briefly showing the Lib Dems winning.
Admittedly the protagonist was less notorious at the time, but it was a bigger surge.
I’m not convinced the Peoplepolling result is fabricated. It could well be real, even if the methodology isn’t top notch. It was taken in a day after the Reform unicorn manifesto that promised 2 Trusses-worth of unfunded tax cuts and spending increases, funded by tens of billions of “civil service efficiencies”.
I've had a couple of private messages in the last 24 hours from right-wing friends, driven by the close to 1,000 crossings yesterday, half-seriously asking if we now need to "sink a few boats" to stop it.
Meanwhile legal immigration is several orders of magnitude greater than the rounding error that is small boats. Even as a proportion of asylum claims small boats is a small minority.
Good evening
It is simply against Maritime law to arbitrarily sink boats and the outcry would be deafening
No one told the Greek Coastguard
Are you trying to justify a rogue coastguard ignoring Mariime law and anyway the coastguard will have the law to deal with
It is a shocking development that anyone could even think of sinking boats with migrants, and who has to deal with the consequences of rescuing those in peril but the crews of the RNLI and border force boats risking their own lives
Shocking to those of us leading comfortable lives in agreeable houses.
Not so much to those who havent seen a decent pay rise in years due to immigrant competition for low/unskilled Labour, whos rent is going up for a poor quality s***hole due to competition from migrants chasing the same housing stock, and pull their rotten teeth out with pliers as they cannot get a dentist. Then see on the news that illegal enterers are collected and put up in hotels with free food.
And there are rather a lot of the latter.
As I have said, unless decent leaders on occasion do indecent things on occasion for the greater good (like Churchill sinking the French fleet in Mers-El-Kebir killing thousands of French Sailors), they are replaced by indecent leaders who will do very indecent things.
The decent leader doing indecent thing in this occasion would be deporting all males of military age entering the country Illegally on such boats to Kigali in short order without appeal.
The indecent leader doing a very indecent thing would use the Navy to sink a boat pour les encouragement les autres.
It's called blackmail to threaten killings if you don't get your way.
Prime ministers are the people we appoint to do the things we do t want to do, but know that we must
That's not a million miles away from the hypothetical I posted a few days ago:
So who gets to sit as the LotO if two parties have the same number of seats? Which is incredibly likely!
Alliance would caucus with the LibDems (to use an Americanism) and the LibDems would become the official opposition. Farage has pissed off both the TUV and DUP, so no help there.
Or, probably, they’d just change the Commons rules to share PMQs etc.
I've had a couple of private messages in the last 24 hours from right-wing friends, driven by the close to 1,000 crossings yesterday, half-seriously asking if we now need to "sink a few boats" to stop it.
Meanwhile legal immigration is several orders of magnitude greater than the rounding error that is small boats. Even as a proportion of asylum claims small boats is a small minority.
Good evening
It is simply against Maritime law to arbitrarily sink boats and the outcry would be deafening
No one told the Greek Coastguard
Are you trying to justify a rogue coastguard ignoring Mariime law and anyway the coastguard will have the law to deal with
It is a shocking development that anyone could even think of sinking boats with migrants, and who has to deal with the consequences of rescuing those in peril but the crews of the RNLI and border force boats risking their own lives
Shocking to those of us leading comfortable lives in agreeable houses.
Not so much to those who havent seen a decent pay rise in years due to immigrant competition for low/unskilled Labour, whos rent is going up for a poor quality s***hole due to competition from migrants chasing the same housing stock, and pull their rotten teeth out with pliers as they cannot get a dentist. Then see on the news that illegal enterers are collected and put up in hotels with free food.
And there are rather a lot of the latter.
As I have said, unless decent leaders on occasion do indecent things on occasion for the greater good (like Churchill sinking the French fleet in Mers-El-Kebir killing thousands of French Sailors), they are replaced by indecent leaders who will do very indecent things.
The decent leader doing indecent thing in this occasion would be deporting all males of military age entering the country Illegally on such boats to Kigali in short order without appeal.
The indecent leader doing a very indecent thing would use the Navy to sink a boat pour les encouragement les autres.
It's called blackmail to threaten killings if you don't get your way.
Prime ministers are the people we appoint to do the things we do t want to do, but know that we must
No, they also obey the law. Did you learn human rights law from the wrong side in A Few Good Men?
If Reform have done well, I guess we’ll see it in the first few NE seats. By “well” I mean the difference between the 14/15 many of us have priced in and right teens/low twenties we see in some polls.
That feels like the prime opportunity to make money.
I've had a couple of private messages in the last 24 hours from right-wing friends, driven by the close to 1,000 crossings yesterday, half-seriously asking if we now need to "sink a few boats" to stop it.
Meanwhile legal immigration is several orders of magnitude greater than the rounding error that is small boats. Even as a proportion of asylum claims small boats is a small minority.
Good evening
It is simply against Maritime law to arbitrarily sink boats and the outcry would be deafening
No one told the Greek Coastguard
Are you trying to justify a rogue coastguard ignoring Mariime law and anyway the coastguard will have the law to deal with
It is a shocking development that anyone could even think of sinking boats with migrants, and who has to deal with the consequences of rescuing those in peril but the crews of the RNLI and border force boats risking their own lives
Shocking to those of us leading comfortable lives in agreeable houses.
Not so much to those who havent seen a decent pay rise in years due to immigrant competition for low/unskilled Labour, whos rent is going up for a poor quality s***hole due to competition from migrants chasing the same housing stock, and pull their rotten teeth out with pliers as they cannot get a dentist. Then see on the news that illegal enterers are collected and put up in hotels with free food.
And there are rather a lot of the latter.
As I have said, unless decent leaders on occasion do indecent things on occasion for the greater good (like Churchill sinking the French fleet in Mers-El-Kebir killing thousands of French Sailors), they are replaced by indecent leaders who will do very indecent things.
The decent leader doing indecent thing in this occasion would be deporting all males of military age entering the country Illegally on such boats to Kigali in short order without appeal.
The indecent leader doing a very indecent thing would use the Navy to sink a boat pour les encouragement les autres.
I never thought I would read on here such a shocking and unacceptable statement
It truely saddens me and maybe if you had witnessed a woman or a child drown in such circumstances as the rescuers have then you would discover your humanity
How is it shocking and unacceptable to say "The indecent leader doing a very indecent thing would use the Navy to sink a boat pour les encouragement les autres. "?
Think you need to read what I wrote more carefully. I am warning that if good people do nothing then bad people get control and do very unpleasant things.
I like you am one of the people who live in agreeable houses in some comfort who would find such things shocking.
Drivel.
Your post called for leaders to do "indecent things ... for the greater good".
He'd shit his kecks if PM Starmer did an indecent thing like order the execution of all Reform voters for the greater good (of stopping Putin defenders from being elected.)
Labours game seems to be avoid talking about Reform . Labour want Reform to do well as there’s only so many Labour voters that would move over to them and they don’t want to inadvertently frighten Tory to Reform voters .
This is a risky game because if the Tory vote completely collapses then Reform might start taking many more seats than currently forecast .
I've had a couple of private messages in the last 24 hours from right-wing friends, driven by the close to 1,000 crossings yesterday, half-seriously asking if we now need to "sink a few boats" to stop it.
Meanwhile legal immigration is several orders of magnitude greater than the rounding error that is small boats. Even as a proportion of asylum claims small boats is a small minority.
Good evening
It is simply against Maritime law to arbitrarily sink boats and the outcry would be deafening
No one told the Greek Coastguard
Are you trying to justify a rogue coastguard ignoring Mariime law and anyway the coastguard will have the law to deal with
It is a shocking development that anyone could even think of sinking boats with migrants, and who has to deal with the consequences of rescuing those in peril but the crews of the RNLI and border force boats risking their own lives
Shocking to those of us leading comfortable lives in agreeable houses.
Not so much to those who havent seen a decent pay rise in years due to immigrant competition for low/unskilled Labour, whos rent is going up for a poor quality s***hole due to competition from migrants chasing the same housing stock, and pull their rotten teeth out with pliers as they cannot get a dentist. Then see on the news that illegal enterers are collected and put up in hotels with free food.
And there are rather a lot of the latter.
As I have said, unless decent leaders on occasion do indecent things on occasion for the greater good (like Churchill sinking the French fleet in Mers-El-Kebir killing thousands of French Sailors), they are replaced by indecent leaders who will do very indecent things.
The decent leader doing indecent thing in this occasion would be deporting all males of military age entering the country Illegally on such boats to Kigali in short order without appeal.
The indecent leader doing a very indecent thing would use the Navy to sink a boat pour les encouragement les autres.
I never thought I would read on here such a shocking and unacceptable statement
It truely saddens me and maybe if you had witnessed a woman or a child drown in such circumstances as the rescuers have then you would discover your humanity
That this kind of thinking is considered acceptable in some quarters is the consequence of the government demonising migrants for their own political advantage. They richly deserve to be wiped out.
Farage and Reform certainly but I fear we are witnessing a growing and worrying descent into the sewer of hard right politics
I don't think enough voters are following the election closely, nevermind polls to consciously decide the Tories are doomed and thus Reform is the best place for their vote. I still think the campaign hasn't fundamentally changed much. Labour will win and win well. The Tories will be a poor second, Lib Dems heading back towards 2005 uplands. Probably 40/25/12/12. Perhaps I should enter the competition?!
Campaign update in my Con/Lib Dem battle. Nothing from Labour or Reform. 1 leaflet from an independent, three from the tories, 5 from the Lib Dems. No door knockers.
If Reform have done well, I guess we’ll see it in the first few NE seats. By “well” I mean the difference between the 14/15 many of us have priced in and right teens/low twenties we see in some polls.
That feels like the prime opportunity to make money.
C’mon, this is POLITICS. How can you not love this?
Because they are now terrified. lol
THIS IS THE BEST ELECTION EVER
Also, this is the most dramatic UK election poll I can remember in my adult life
Does anything compare? The poll showing YES ahead in Sindyref, but that was a referendum
Even if this is an outlier (and I suspect it it) it is enormously entertaining, as you say
The thing is, after all the crazy things that have happened since 2016, you wouldn't entirely discount the chance of something crazy happening again...
We need to be cognisant that not many people are political junkies like us.
But if tweets like this get traction amongst the less politically engaged, they might become reality, from Tories thinking “Well, I guess ONLY REFUK CAN BEAT LABOUR NOW” a la the Lib Dem leaflets of old.
Going through that spreadsheet (for what it is) I find it very strange that only 33% of Reform voters voted for Brexit in 2016....
People Polling have either picked up a set of people who are missed by all other polls, discovered a trend before everyone else or have sampled a very strange set of people...
So a closer look and it seems that the Reform vote is based on Brexit voters switching to Reform from Don't know and won't vote.
which may well mean that a significant proportion are either none voters who will vote this time round or will again sit things out. But as Nigel didn't stand in Tory seats in the last election it's perfectly possible he's bringing none voters back into the polling booth.
C’mon, this is POLITICS. How can you not love this?
Because they are now terrified. lol
THIS IS THE BEST ELECTION EVER
Also, this is the most dramatic UK election poll I can remember in my adult life
Does anything compare? The poll showing YES ahead in Sindyref, but that was a referendum
Even if this is an outlier (and I suspect it it) it is enormously entertaining, as you say
The thing is, after all the crazy things that have happened since 2016, you wouldn't entirely discount the chance of something crazy happening again...
I've had a couple of private messages in the last 24 hours from right-wing friends, driven by the close to 1,000 crossings yesterday, half-seriously asking if we now need to "sink a few boats" to stop it.
Meanwhile legal immigration is several orders of magnitude greater than the rounding error that is small boats. Even as a proportion of asylum claims small boats is a small minority.
Good evening
It is simply against Maritime law to arbitrarily sink boats and the outcry would be deafening
No one told the Greek Coastguard
Are you trying to justify a rogue coastguard ignoring Mariime law and anyway the coastguard will have the law to deal with
It is a shocking development that anyone could even think of sinking boats with migrants, and who has to deal with the consequences of rescuing those in peril but the crews of the RNLI and border force boats risking their own lives
Shocking to those of us leading comfortable lives in agreeable houses.
Not so much to those who havent seen a decent pay rise in years due to immigrant competition for low/unskilled Labour, whos rent is going up for a poor quality s***hole due to competition from migrants chasing the same housing stock, and pull their rotten teeth out with pliers as they cannot get a dentist. Then see on the news that illegal enterers are collected and put up in hotels with free food.
And there are rather a lot of the latter.
As I have said, unless decent leaders on occasion do indecent things on occasion for the greater good (like Churchill sinking the French fleet in Mers-El-Kebir killing thousands of French Sailors), they are replaced by indecent leaders who will do very indecent things.
The decent leader doing indecent thing in this occasion would be deporting all males of military age entering the country Illegally on such boats to Kigali in short order without appeal.
The indecent leader doing a very indecent thing would use the Navy to sink a boat pour les encouragement les autres.
I never thought I would read on here such a shocking and unacceptable statement
It truely saddens me and maybe if you had witnessed a woman or a child drown in such circumstances as the rescuers have then you would discover your humanity
How is it shocking and unacceptable to say "The indecent leader doing a very indecent thing would use the Navy to sink a boat pour les encouragement les autres. "?
Think you need to read what I wrote more carefully. I am warning that if good people do nothing then bad people get control and do very unpleasant things.
I like you am one of the people who live in agreeable houses in some comfort who would find such things shocking.
Drivel.
Your post called for leaders to do "indecent things ... for the greater good".
That was to deport illegal enterers of military age to Kigali. Not to sink their boats.
I've had a couple of private messages in the last 24 hours from right-wing friends, driven by the close to 1,000 crossings yesterday, half-seriously asking if we now need to "sink a few boats" to stop it.
Meanwhile legal immigration is several orders of magnitude greater than the rounding error that is small boats. Even as a proportion of asylum claims small boats is a small minority.
Good evening
It is simply against Maritime law to arbitrarily sink boats and the outcry would be deafening
No one told the Greek Coastguard
Are you trying to justify a rogue coastguard ignoring Mariime law and anyway the coastguard will have the law to deal with
It is a shocking development that anyone could even think of sinking boats with migrants, and who has to deal with the consequences of rescuing those in peril but the crews of the RNLI and border force boats risking their own lives
Shocking to those of us leading comfortable lives in agreeable houses.
Not so much to those who havent seen a decent pay rise in years due to immigrant competition for low/unskilled Labour, whos rent is going up for a poor quality s***hole due to competition from migrants chasing the same housing stock, and pull their rotten teeth out with pliers as they cannot get a dentist. Then see on the news that illegal enterers are collected and put up in hotels with free food.
And there are rather a lot of the latter.
As I have said, unless decent leaders on occasion do indecent things on occasion for the greater good (like Churchill sinking the French fleet in Mers-El-Kebir killing thousands of French Sailors), they are replaced by indecent leaders who will do very indecent things.
The decent leader doing indecent thing in this occasion would be deporting all males of military age entering the country Illegally on such boats to Kigali in short order without appeal.
The indecent leader doing a very indecent thing would use the Navy to sink a boat pour les encouragement les autres.
I never thought I would read on here such a shocking and unacceptable statement
It truely saddens me and maybe if you had witnessed a woman or a child drown in such circumstances as the rescuers have then you would discover your humanity
How is it shocking and unacceptable to say "The indecent leader doing a very indecent thing would use the Navy to sink a boat pour les encouragement les autres. "?
Think you need to read what I wrote more carefully. I am warning that if good people do nothing then bad people get control and do very unpleasant things.
I read what you wrote and it is unacceptable and shocking
And to think last night I confirmed my youngest son has just been appointed as a Llandudno Inshore Lifeboat helm, much to the family's pride and many on here liking my post, and you want him and his colleague to attend the deliberate sinking of a boat with all the trauma for those concerned
That is totally misrepresenting my words. I did not advocate any such thing.
I agree that is shocking that such views exist but they do, and part of statecraft is to take more moderate action to ensure that those who would don't have a big enough greviance to latch onto to get into power.
C’mon, this is POLITICS. How can you not love this?
Because they are now terrified. lol
THIS IS THE BEST ELECTION EVER
Also, this is the most dramatic UK election poll I can remember in my adult life
Does anything compare? The poll showing YES ahead in Sindyref, but that was a referendum
Even if this is an outlier (and I suspect it it) it is enormously entertaining, as you say
As an ardent Lib Dem I’ve never been more politically excited than during the Cleggasm stage of the 2010 election campaign. I was staying with my uncle at the time who was a massive Labour supporter and the banter was just incredible. Of course election night was like coming down from a massive sugar rush.
The Cleggasm was quite something, HOWEVER it did not presage the extinction of one of the two major parties. This does, so I suggest this is even bigger
I think at the time I hoped it would lead to the extinction of Labour so we could go back to Conservative vs Liberals as God ordained. Labour vs Liberal doesn’t seem quite right.
Serious question: have People Polling ever produced another poll which was, it turns out, a massive outlier?
Because if they have a history of this then that changes things. Yes I know it is Matt Goodwin etc etc but they are members of the BPC and I need a bit more evidence before dismissing this. But maybe such evidence exists?
This seems amazingly naive from private schools. Point of supply of a service is the crucial factor in determining VAT. They're not going to be able to recover it from the parents so they'll have to find it from future pupils in addition to the VAT on those school fees. My guess is the schools doing this heavily will probably fold.
Happy to offer my bet to @Leon, if Goodwin’s numbers are repeated in any of the next three BPC polls you win. If they are repeated in none of them, I win.
I've had a couple of private messages in the last 24 hours from right-wing friends, driven by the close to 1,000 crossings yesterday, half-seriously asking if we now need to "sink a few boats" to stop it.
Meanwhile legal immigration is several orders of magnitude greater than the rounding error that is small boats. Even as a proportion of asylum claims small boats is a small minority.
Good evening
It is simply against Maritime law to arbitrarily sink boats and the outcry would be deafening
No one told the Greek Coastguard
Are you trying to justify a rogue coastguard ignoring Mariime law and anyway the coastguard will have the law to deal with
It is a shocking development that anyone could even think of sinking boats with migrants, and who has to deal with the consequences of rescuing those in peril but the crews of the RNLI and border force boats risking their own lives
Shocking to those of us leading comfortable lives in agreeable houses.
Not so much to those who havent seen a decent pay rise in years due to immigrant competition for low/unskilled Labour, whos rent is going up for a poor quality s***hole due to competition from migrants chasing the same housing stock, and pull their rotten teeth out with pliers as they cannot get a dentist. Then see on the news that illegal enterers are collected and put up in hotels with free food.
And there are rather a lot of the latter.
As I have said, unless decent leaders on occasion do indecent things on occasion for the greater good (like Churchill sinking the French fleet in Mers-El-Kebir killing thousands of French Sailors), they are replaced by indecent leaders who will do very indecent things.
The decent leader doing indecent thing in this occasion would be deporting all males of military age entering the country Illegally on such boats to Kigali in short order without appeal.
The indecent leader doing a very indecent thing would use the Navy to sink a boat pour les encouragement les autres.
I never thought I would read on here such a shocking and unacceptable statement
It truely saddens me and maybe if you had witnessed a woman or a child drown in such circumstances as the rescuers have then you would discover your humanity
That this kind of thinking is considered acceptable in some quarters is the consequence of the government demonising migrants for their own political advantage. They richly deserve to be wiped out.
No it's not. It's the consequence of thousands of people from the third world turning up here every week without us apparently being able to do anything at all about it.
Sunak protection officer arrested over alleged election date bets
A police officer working as part of the prime minister's close protection team has been suspended and later arrested over alleged bets about the timing of the general election, the BBC can reveal.
Going through that spreadsheet (for what it is) I find it very strange that only 33% of Reform voters voted for Brexit in 2016....
People Polling have either picked up a set of people who are missed by all other polls, discovered a trend before everyone else or have sampled a very strange set of people...
So a closer look and it seems that the Reform vote is based on Brexit voters switching to Reform from Don't know and won't vote.
which may well mean that a significant proportion are either none voters who will vote this time round or will again sit things out. But as Nigel didn't stand in Tory seats in the last election it's perfectly possible he's bringing none voters back into the polling booth.
We need to know what the voter registration numbers look like, ideally by region, and compared to 17 and 19. But Reform lacks door knockers.
Matt Goodwin has adjusted his methodology. His poll now asks:
Who do you intend to vote for in the GE: - the knee-taking crpyto-communist SKS Labour Party? - the utterly useless immigration off-the-scales no boats stopped Sunak Tory Party? - the wishy-washy fucking useless Davey Lib Dem Party? - the charismatic all-our-problems-solved brilliant isn't Farage gorgeous Reform Party?
His subtstack article says that PeoplePolling hasn't changed it's methodology at all since they put Reform on 16 and the Tories on 19. So they could well be crap, but it's probably not fair to accuse them of releasing fraudulent polls for Farage - that's more or less what Farage is doing with Moreincommon.
Sunak protection officer arrested over alleged election date bets
A police officer working as part of the prime minister's close protection team has been suspended and later arrested over alleged bets about the timing of the general election, the BBC can reveal.
It seems such a dullard thing to do. You can't make life changing money out of this "insider trading" type move, but if caught you likely to lose your job.
I'm probably going to vote for Reform. Possible I might vote Labour to ensure the wet who is standing for Mid Beds is defeated.
But probably I will vote Reform to kick them all in the nuts. The pompous prattle here that farage is Mosley/Hitler/Sundry Fascist is making my mind up.
Centrist liberals disagreeing with non centrist liberal views is one thing. Centrist liberals considering non centrist liberal views as beneath contempt and ideally disbarred is another matter entirely.
I hope they do well enough to destroy the Conservative Party and take over what remains, turning it into a less economically right wing and more socially right wing party. Along the lines of places like South Korea, and (modern) Japan. Not Nazi Germany.
Enjoy the wilderness. It gets a bit lonely but Leon will be there with you, for the first few days.
He actually pours cold water over it, to an extent - he feels it is an outlier (that's my impression). But he does think it shows real movement, away from Tories and towards Reform
I do wonder what a black swan involving a lot of refugees arriving on the south coast in increasingly nice weather could do.
Odds on cranks saying Putin is funding crossings to destabilise the UK at some point in the next fortnight?
I think you'll find that the 5G masts are literal migrant-magnets. Can't help themselves be drawn to their mysterious 'magnet waves'. They only get on the boats due to the lack of British Airways pilots.
Several of us have speculated that Tory/Reform polling might reach a tipping point where voting Tory is seen as a waste of time and Reform as the tactical vote to stop Labour. Is it really a surprise that it might happen? And Reform have just had a lot of coverage of their manifesto, which will have been attractive to the credulous and disgruntled. Is it really a surprise that someone promising lots of free giveaways will win support?
It might prove to be a bubble, but I think it's completely unwarranted for people to suggest that this poll result is fabricated, without a scintilla of evidence.
The Tories are almost completely unwilling to criticise Farage. Many of them wish they had had the foresight or courage to have defected to him earlier, when they had the chance. Is it a surprise that Reform should do well in the polls when they receive a free pass from much of one of the parties that should be opposing them?
You want a scintilla of evidence? I found three things, so will use my picture of the day to highlight all 3 of them.
Their methodology hasn't changed, so basically you're accusing the company of falsifying the data.
I've had a couple of private messages in the last 24 hours from right-wing friends, driven by the close to 1,000 crossings yesterday, half-seriously asking if we now need to "sink a few boats" to stop it.
Meanwhile legal immigration is several orders of magnitude greater than the rounding error that is small boats. Even as a proportion of asylum claims small boats is a small minority.
Good evening
It is simply against Maritime law to arbitrarily sink boats and the outcry would be deafening
No one told the Greek Coastguard
Are you trying to justify a rogue coastguard ignoring Mariime law and anyway the coastguard will have the law to deal with
It is a shocking development that anyone could even think of sinking boats with migrants, and who has to deal with the consequences of rescuing those in peril but the crews of the RNLI and border force boats risking their own lives
Shocking to those of us leading comfortable lives in agreeable houses.
Not so much to those who havent seen a decent pay rise in years due to immigrant competition for low/unskilled Labour, whos rent is going up for a poor quality s***hole due to competition from migrants chasing the same housing stock, and pull their rotten teeth out with pliers as they cannot get a dentist. Then see on the news that illegal enterers are collected and put up in hotels with free food.
And there are rather a lot of the latter.
As I have said, unless decent leaders on occasion do indecent things on occasion for the greater good (like Churchill sinking the French fleet in Mers-El-Kebir killing thousands of French Sailors), they are replaced by indecent leaders who will do very indecent things.
The decent leader doing indecent thing in this occasion would be deporting all males of military age entering the country Illegally on such boats to Kigali in short order without appeal.
The indecent leader doing a very indecent thing would use the Navy to sink a boat pour les encouragement les autres.
I never thought I would read on here such a shocking and unacceptable statement
It truely saddens me and maybe if you had witnessed a woman or a child drown in such circumstances as the rescuers have then you would discover your humanity
That this kind of thinking is considered acceptable in some quarters is the consequence of the government demonising migrants for their own political advantage. They richly deserve to be wiped out.
No it's not. It's the consequence of thousands of people from the third world turning up here every week without us apparently being able to do anything at all about it.
I've had a couple of private messages in the last 24 hours from right-wing friends, driven by the close to 1,000 crossings yesterday, half-seriously asking if we now need to "sink a few boats" to stop it.
Meanwhile legal immigration is several orders of magnitude greater than the rounding error that is small boats. Even as a proportion of asylum claims small boats is a small minority.
Good evening
It is simply against Maritime law to arbitrarily sink boats and the outcry would be deafening
No one told the Greek Coastguard
Are you trying to justify a rogue coastguard ignoring Mariime law and anyway the coastguard will have the law to deal with
It is a shocking development that anyone could even think of sinking boats with migrants, and who has to deal with the consequences of rescuing those in peril but the crews of the RNLI and border force boats risking their own lives
Shocking to those of us leading comfortable lives in agreeable houses.
Not so much to those who havent seen a decent pay rise in years due to immigrant competition for low/unskilled Labour, whos rent is going up for a poor quality s***hole due to competition from migrants chasing the same housing stock, and pull their rotten teeth out with pliers as they cannot get a dentist. Then see on the news that illegal enterers are collected and put up in hotels with free food.
And there are rather a lot of the latter.
As I have said, unless decent leaders on occasion do indecent things on occasion for the greater good (like Churchill sinking the French fleet in Mers-El-Kebir killing thousands of French Sailors), they are replaced by indecent leaders who will do very indecent things.
The decent leader doing indecent thing in this occasion would be deporting all males of military age entering the country Illegally on such boats to Kigali in short order without appeal.
The indecent leader doing a very indecent thing would use the Navy to sink a boat pour les encouragement les autres.
I never thought I would read on here such a shocking and unacceptable statement
It truely saddens me and maybe if you had witnessed a woman or a child drown in such circumstances as the rescuers have then you would discover your humanity
How is it shocking and unacceptable to say "The indecent leader doing a very indecent thing would use the Navy to sink a boat pour les encouragement les autres. "?
Think you need to read what I wrote more carefully. I am warning that if good people do nothing then bad people get control and do very unpleasant things.
I like you am one of the people who live in agreeable houses in some comfort who would find such things shocking.
Drivel.
Your post called for leaders to do "indecent things ... for the greater good".
I'm probably going to vote for Reform. Possible I might vote Labour to ensure the wet who is standing for Mid Beds is defeated.
But probably I will vote Reform to kick them all in the nuts. The pompous prattle here that farage is Mosley/Hitler/Sundry Fascist is making my mind up.
Centrist liberals disagreeing with non centrist liberal views is one thing. Centrist liberals considering non centrist liberal views as beneath contempt and ideally disbarred is another matter entirely.
I hope they do well enough to destroy the Conservative Party and take over what remains, turning it into a less economically right wing and more socially right wing party. Along the lines of places like South Korea, and (modern) Japan. Not Nazi Germany.
Enjoy the wilderness. It gets a bit lonely but Leon will be there with you, for the first few days.
If Goodwin is right I might reconsider. If they got 100 mps it would be a disaster with all sorts of unsuitable people getting elected (much to their own horror as much as anyone elses)!
I can see pollsters struggliung with current situation. We have a Tory party historically unpopular, a demographic of people who were Labour, went Boris, now politically homeless. Yes we had a UKIP surge 10 years ago, but things have changed. Tory wets that were Cameron voters are probably going Lib Dem / Labour, and then its what the don't votes do. They came out of Brexit and Boris, but will they come out for Farage?
I think all the PBers claiming that this is a fraudulent poll are treading on very thin ice. OGH had a firm rule that you do NOT impugn pollsters without serious evidence, esp if they are members of the BPC (I presume they are?)
Unlike most of the other pollsters People Polling are untested at a general election.
They have also had to revise some of their previous polls because they cocked up their data tables/spreadsheets.
The other issue is People Polling's supplementaries have been openly discussed by other pollsters and polling experts as being so one sided as to be utterly irrelevant.
Then how come they are memnbers of the BPC? Surely they should be expelled?
Serious question. Because a fraudulent poll if exploded at the right time could actually change the direction of the elevtion, eg a poll which showed Reform easily and dramatically overtaking the Tories
Which this does
IF this is shown to be fraudulent then the coppers need to feel collars, this is serious shit
I've had a couple of private messages in the last 24 hours from right-wing friends, driven by the close to 1,000 crossings yesterday, half-seriously asking if we now need to "sink a few boats" to stop it.
Meanwhile legal immigration is several orders of magnitude greater than the rounding error that is small boats. Even as a proportion of asylum claims small boats is a small minority.
Good evening
It is simply against Maritime law to arbitrarily sink boats and the outcry would be deafening
No one told the Greek Coastguard
Are you trying to justify a rogue coastguard ignoring Mariime law and anyway the coastguard will have the law to deal with
It is a shocking development that anyone could even think of sinking boats with migrants, and who has to deal with the consequences of rescuing those in peril but the crews of the RNLI and border force boats risking their own lives
Shocking to those of us leading comfortable lives in agreeable houses.
Not so much to those who havent seen a decent pay rise in years due to immigrant competition for low/unskilled Labour, whos rent is going up for a poor quality s***hole due to competition from migrants chasing the same housing stock, and pull their rotten teeth out with pliers as they cannot get a dentist. Then see on the news that illegal enterers are collected and put up in hotels with free food.
And there are rather a lot of the latter.
As I have said, unless decent leaders on occasion do indecent things on occasion for the greater good (like Churchill sinking the French fleet in Mers-El-Kebir killing thousands of French Sailors), they are replaced by indecent leaders who will do very indecent things.
The decent leader doing indecent thing in this occasion would be deporting all males of military age entering the country Illegally on such boats to Kigali in short order without appeal.
The indecent leader doing a very indecent thing would use the Navy to sink a boat pour les encouragement les autres.
I never thought I would read on here such a shocking and unacceptable statement
It truely saddens me and maybe if you had witnessed a woman or a child drown in such circumstances as the rescuers have then you would discover your humanity
How is it shocking and unacceptable to say "The indecent leader doing a very indecent thing would use the Navy to sink a boat pour les encouragement les autres. "?
Think you need to read what I wrote more carefully. I am warning that if good people do nothing then bad people get control and do very unpleasant things.
I like you am one of the people who live in agreeable houses in some comfort who would find such things shocking.
Drivel.
Your post called for leaders to do "indecent things ... for the greater good".
That was to deport illegal enterers of military age to Kigali. Not to sink their boats.
That would be a waste.
Captain - “March them in”
{group of refugees enter”}
Captain - “Congratulations on joining His Majesties Royal Navy. Since you have refused to give your names, we have created ones for you. You are Sebastian Codpiece. You were steering the boat? You are then rated Able Seamen. AB Staines. Right, Master at Arms, march them out.”
Badenoch does seem to enjoy support from a few of the higher minded types on the right like Simon Heffer and Melanie Phillips. I imagine Leon would like Giles Coren's verdict on Braverman/Patel as a bit mediocre.
I spoke to a (Green) friend on Monday and we ended up discussing politics. He was really looking forward to seeing the Tories botted out and was totally unconcerned by right wing populism and saw no reason not to be contemptuous of them because:
a) The clear majority of people support progressive parties b) Tory/Right wing voters are old and dying c) You can't control migration anyway so it's all a waste of time
I tried to dissuade him from this optimistic view and urged more scepticism but he wasn't having it.
Living in a bubble would be a good description for this person. Younger working-class people outside big cities are probably more concerned about immigration than older people living in urban areas, for example.
Actually, I would say the group that is more negatively impacted by immigration is 40-55 year old non-homeowner, who works in a non-skilled role.
This group didn't go to University, has seen a lot of competition - leading to lower wages - from immigration, didn't benefit from the house price surge, and has now been sucker punched by the inflation that has followed Covid and the Ukraine invasion. They have few, if any, savings and work in a town or small city that has largely been left behind by globalisation. They are (relatively) socially conservative.
And they feel - not without reason - that they've been fucked by globalisation and by the fact that the Conservatives/LibDems/Labour all offer some shade of the same post-1979 consensus.
This is a sizeable bunch of voters, and Boris captured them in 2019, by promising to Get Brexit done and to Level Up their towns.
What they feel has happened instead is that Brexit hasn't reduced immigration of low skilled workers and Levelling Up was cancelled.
Hence: Reform.
A group that is also completely unrepresented on PB.
Leon is the only poster of note who's said they may vote for Reform. And of course, for him, immigration is the #1 issue.
I think it is for a lot of other voters, and maybe other posters, too, but there is a cordon sanitaire around admitting you're voting for them, especially among the status seeking middle classes, which are over-represented on PB. The only person I know voting for them IRL is a red trouser wearing posho who just openly came out and said the Tories have f***ed the country and Reform are our last hope. "And when do you move from your mews house in SW1 into a caravan in Jaywick?" was my reply - which probably says more about me than it does about him.
I do wonder if there is a "shy reform" vote in effect, though. A lot of people secretly agreeing with Farage but being too polite to say it out loud.
I think socially liberal and fiscally conservative is overrepresented on here.
But I think that is at least partly because it's also overrepresented among educated people who work knowledge based jobs and bet on politics! And that is the demographics of PB.
Personally, I think the polls have largely got Reform right. I think they'll get 14-15%, and they'll be 7-10 percent behind the Conservative Party. They will probably win two seats (Ashfield and Clacton), but it's also entirely possible that you see tactical voting by LibDems and Labour supporters for the Conservative candidates (particularly in Clacton) which could upset that.
While I broadly agree with you, from a sheer psychological perspective I wonder if there's a small but significant number (of the general population, rather than PBers) who are deluding themselves along the lines of 'I will continue to vote Conservative, I can't vote for that nasty man Farage' and that is also how they are responding to pollsters. Because they themselves genuinely believe it. And they will kid themselves that they are Con voters right up until July 4th.
But on polling day, they may actually get into the voting booth and go 'go on then, the Tories have lost anyway and Farage is the only one talking sense on immigration' and give Reform a cheeky X. Feeling a bit naughty for having done so. Like popping into Asda for your essentials and hoping you don't get caught by one of your Waitrose-shopping friends.
No scientific basis for this - just a weird gut feeling I have.
That's entirely possible. It's not the most likely scenario, but it's definitely possible
And that's why I was recommending Reform as the Most Seats Without Labour bet on Betfair, because the 12s on offer (at the time) were very generous for that.
FWIW, Reform most seats without Labour is still available at 14/1 on BF Exchange.
I've had a little nibble. I can't see it happening, but those odds will come in if this latest poll isn't an outlier.
Comments
MisterBedfordshire
NigeFromClacton
VladFromMoscow
We’ll know soon enough whether this is an outlier . Certainly it might wake up both Labour and the Tories in particular to start going after Reform .
People Polling use an online panel from a different polling form to collect their sample. They might be doing something very wrong, but no-one has presented any evidence to suggest that the results are fake or skewed.
I don't much care for Goodwin's political commentary, but I think you're out of order to equate these polls with Trafalgar without any evidence.
THIS IS THE BEST ELECTION EVER
Also, this is the most dramatic UK election poll I can remember in my adult life
Does anything compare? The poll showing YES ahead in Sindyref, but that was a referendum
Even if this is an outlier (and I suspect it it) it is enormously entertaining, as you say
When none of your friends and family are willing to own up to being Farage supporters, you keep schtum. Once one or two come out and say it, and you've been leaning that way for a while, you go "yeah, actually I think they make a lot of sense, too..." and it becomes a bit of an I am Spartacus moment for all the people who've read the RefUK manifesto and gone, that makes a lot of sense actually.
And then it goes from being a network effect to becoming a snowball effect. The right wing press switch allegiances. "Only Reform can stop Labour" etc, and all of a sudden you have crossover, and you have Nige as the LOTO in next month's time.
Will it happen? Probably not. COULD it happen at this point? Absolutely.
That feels like the prime opportunity to make money.
Think you need to read what I wrote more carefully. I am warning that if good people do nothing then bad people get control and do very unpleasant things.
I like you am one of the people who live in agreeable houses in some comfort who would find such things shocking.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c120CRw_tdw
It reflects well on the Swiss people, if you ask me it's a big plus.
And to think last night I confirmed my youngest son has just been appointed as a Llandudno Inshore Lifeboat helm, much to the family's pride and many on here liking my post, and you want him and his colleague to attend the deliberate sinking of a boat with all the trauma for those concerned
Meanwhile I’ve been watching the local hustings for my constituency and have come away not wanting to vote for any of them.
Man these have been some very turbulent times in British politics
Your post called for leaders to do "indecent things ... for the greater good".
Admittedly the protagonist was less notorious at the time, but it was a bigger surge.
I’m not convinced the Peoplepolling result is fabricated. It could well be real, even if the methodology isn’t top notch. It was taken in a day after the Reform unicorn manifesto that promised 2 Trusses-worth of unfunded tax cuts and spending increases, funded by tens of billions of “civil service efficiencies”.
Great shot, the match is back on
Enter Shakiri
Or, probably, they’d just change the Commons rules to share PMQs etc.
This is a risky game because if the Tory vote completely collapses then Reform might start taking many more seats than currently forecast .
Campaign update in my Con/Lib Dem battle. Nothing from Labour or Reform. 1 leaflet from an independent, three from the tories, 5 from the Lib Dems. No door knockers.
Is this for real?
Reform GAIN Sunderland Central
We need to be cognisant that not many people are political junkies like us.
But if tweets like this get traction amongst the less politically engaged, they might become reality, from Tories thinking “Well, I guess ONLY REFUK CAN BEAT LABOUR NOW” a la the Lib Dem leaflets of old.
https://x.com/reformparty_uk/status/1803504934547038538?s=46
I’m not saying Goodwin's poll is reliable. BUT unlike many today its fieldwork is much more new (just June 18)
To put a counterfactual on it, if this were going to be Canada 1993, what further signs would we need than what we have seen so far?
which may well mean that a significant proportion are either none voters who will vote this time round or will again sit things out. But as Nigel didn't stand in Tory seats in the last election it's perfectly possible he's bringing none voters back into the polling booth.
Funny old world!
But Dr Jennings does the stats between elections.
Labour: 42.2%
Conservative: 35.4%
Brexit Party: 11.6%
I agree that is shocking that such views exist but they do, and part of statecraft is to take more moderate action to ensure that those who would don't have a big enough greviance to latch onto to get into power.
Reform to poll >=24% in any other legitimate poll during the remainder of the campaign;
Yes 4/1
No 1/4
Anyone fancy arguing the toss?
Because if they have a history of this then that changes things. Yes I know it is Matt Goodwin etc etc but they are members of the BPC and I need a bit more evidence before dismissing this. But maybe such evidence exists?
1) Reform have released their manifesto
2) Farage is having a good campaign
https://www.theguardian.com/education/article/2024/jun/19/advance-private-school-fee-payments-may-create-vat-disputes-experts-warn
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cgeekd4nzvkt?post=asset:cbc50354-3c8f-45e9-bc86-6903e9c7f73e#post
Sunak protection officer arrested over alleged election date bets
A police officer working as part of the prime minister's close protection team has been suspended and later arrested over alleged bets about the timing of the general election, the BBC can reveal.
https://x.com/GBNEWS/status/1803501676919149004
He actually pours cold water over it, to an extent - he feels it is an outlier (that's my impression). But he does think it shows real movement, away from Tories and towards Reform
This will help the LabCon* vote
* copyrighted
https://youtu.be/yUpbOliTHJY?feature=shared
Captain - “March them in”
{group of refugees enter”}
Captain - “Congratulations on joining His Majesties Royal Navy. Since you have refused to give your names, we have created ones for you. You are Sebastian Codpiece. You were steering the boat? You are then rated Able Seamen. AB Staines. Right, Master at Arms, march them out.”
Surely there has to be a ceiling for supporting Farage. I would have suggested 20% but on this polling maybe it's 25%. Surely no more than 30%.
I've had a little nibble. I can't see it happening, but those odds will come in if this latest poll isn't an outlier.