I don't believe for one second that a significant number of Tory MPs will join Reform after the election.
For the first thing, that would require there to be a significant number of Tory MPs after the election.
Well played.
In all seriousness I don't think it the most likely scenario, but I think it's possible.
I think it more likely that if the Tories are sub 100 seats that a leadership candidate advocating merger with Reform could emerge, off the threat of MPs jumping ship.
I think this is true, and was the point of my header the other day, that that's why the Conservative brand has to be Ratnered in the election, so Farage or Tory-Farage can't build off it.
The more it is Ratnered the more Farage can take over as leader of the right of centre in this country
He can be leader - if it's Ratnered, no one will vote for it, just like no one shopped in Ratner's and it had to be shut down. The centre right can come back with a new name - just like Ratner's did.
Even today's Focaldata has 37% voting for the Tories and ReformUK combined, just 6% behind Labour on 43% and miles ahead of the LDs on 10% and Greens on 5% and SNP on 2%.
Once Starmer likely becomes PM voters will want a choice not an echo from the LDs and if the Tories can't provide it as a functioning main opposition then Farage will ensure he will
Oh dear, another muppet who has moved from being a reasonably sensible centrist Tory (albeit with a masturbatory Boris Johnson-is-messiah delusion) to far right nutter.
I don't believe for one second that a significant number of Tory MPs will join Reform after the election.
For the first thing, that would require there to be a significant number of Tory MPs after the election.
Well played.
In all seriousness I don't think it the most likely scenario, but I think it's possible.
I think it more likely that if the Tories are sub 100 seats that a leadership candidate advocating merger with Reform could emerge, off the threat of MPs jumping ship.
I think this is true, and was the point of my header the other day, that that's why the Conservative brand has to be Ratnered in the election, so Farage or Tory-Farage can't build off it.
The more it is Ratnered the more Farage can take over as leader of the right of centre in this country
Are you happy for a fascist to take over a party that you are committed to?
He's not a Fascist, this is ludicrous hyperbole. Farage may well be a twat and something of a demagogue, but a fascist? Please
In living memory Europe suffered from actual fascists, you insult those memories with this piffle
Nonsense, it is a very accurate description. You also seem to confuse Spanish and Italian fascism with Naziism, the former of which are similar to the small brain nationalism that Farage espouses .You are probably so far off to the right that you don't consider him extreme. He has endorsed Trump. He admires Putin. Alan Sked founder of UKIP has described his racism and even as a schoolboy his housemaster of his independent school described him as a fascist. He is a modern day fascist. No hyperbole, just informed judgement. Just because he wears a tweed jacket instead of a blackshirt doesn't let him off the hook.
Does he want a corporate state and the abolition of political parties?
If the polling doesn't start to turn, yes. It's been one way traffic for 2 weeks solid
Well you're a keen poll watcher so let's see. If that does happen, Cons below 50, my LD seats buy at 40 could be an absolute rock star.
My big ?? Over it all is where is the vote dissipating..... are the seats where they are nowhere losing all Tories and they hold up in held seats or is it across the board. Are they holding up in, say, London.... I'd like regional polling but I can't get any loving.
There's no need for confusion on the tax question. Labour will raise ALL taxes, they won't have any choice
Everyone knows that, the size of their majority depends upon which ones they admit they are planning to raise.
Labour are gonna end up hated, really quite quickly
After that, Farage beckons
Only for racist fascists. Farage is just an egotistical twat, like his friend Trump, and co-defendant for destroyer of the Conservative Party, Boris Buffoon Johnson. There will be gullible muppets who fall for his nonsense, but they are generally fools who believe in aliens and conspiracy theories about AI (the latter of which they do not understand)
i don't actually want Farage to run the country, I think he is a divisive and often unsavoury character, albeit one gifted with charisma and great political cunning. I am also certain he'd be a dreadful PM. I am merely making a prediction. The Tories, by moving so far to the Left - highest taxes since the war, highest migration in history - have opened up an enormous gap in British politics. We can see from Europe and America that these gaps get filled, politics abhors a vacuum, and the hard right is in the ascendant everywhere
Labour are likely to fail, because their recipe will be more wokeness, more taxes, more migration, and it's not gonna be popular (after an initial honeymoon)
The populist right will then benefit. It might not be Farage that personally leads this, he is knocking on already and will be 65 at the next GE. But someone will come along
You, and the rest of the country seem to have forgotten that the taxes that are currently so high are in large part due to the expenditure of the pandemic combined with the stupidity of Brexit. I don't know whether you argued against the former but you certainly endorsed the latter. To suggest Rishi Sunak is of the left is ludicrous.
Covid and Ukraine did for taxes, while Truss finally did for reputation.
While I understand the reasoning behind @leon's forecasting of Faragism triumphant, I rather suspect that most surviving Tory MPs and members will want a leader who is competent and a unifier. And they won't be all that sympathetic to someone who tried to kill the party.
I don't believe for one second that a significant number of Tory MPs will join Reform after the election.
For the first thing, that would require there to be a significant number of Tory MPs after the election.
Well played.
In all seriousness I don't think it the most likely scenario, but I think it's possible.
I think it more likely that if the Tories are sub 100 seats that a leadership candidate advocating merger with Reform could emerge, off the threat of MPs jumping ship.
I think this is true, and was the point of my header the other day, that that's why the Conservative brand has to be Ratnered in the election, so Farage or Tory-Farage can't build off it.
The more it is Ratnered the more Farage can take over as leader of the right of centre in this country
Are you happy for a fascist to take over a party that you are committed to?
He's not a Fascist, this is ludicrous hyperbole. Farage may well be a twat and something of a demagogue, but a fascist? Please
In living memory Europe suffered from actual fascists, you insult those memories with this piffle
Nonsense, it is a very accurate description. You also seem to confuse Spanish and Italian fascism with Naziism, the former of which are similar to the small brain nationalism that Farage espouses .You are probably so far off to the right that you don't consider him extreme. He has endorsed Trump. He admires Putin. Alan Sked founder of UKIP has described his racism and even as a schoolboy his housemaster of his independent school described him as a fascist. He is a modern day fascist. No hyperbole, just informed judgement. Just because he wears a tweed jacket instead of a blackshirt doesn't let him off the hook.
Does he want a corporate state and the abolition of political parties?
Judging by his last tweet, he thinks the police are his personal fief.
He really can't catch a break can he. Ok Rishi, dead easy one, we will give you some feed and the sheep will come and eat it....they do everything but come to this feed bucket.
The Unknown Stuntman seems to be having a quiet week this week. Has he run out of energy?
I don't believe for one second that a significant number of Tory MPs will join Reform after the election.
For the first thing, that would require there to be a significant number of Tory MPs after the election.
Well played.
In all seriousness I don't think it the most likely scenario, but I think it's possible.
I think it more likely that if the Tories are sub 100 seats that a leadership candidate advocating merger with Reform could emerge, off the threat of MPs jumping ship.
I think this is true, and was the point of my header the other day, that that's why the Conservative brand has to be Ratnered in the election, so Farage or Tory-Farage can't build off it.
The more it is Ratnered the more Farage can take over as leader of the right of centre in this country
Are you happy for a fascist to take over a party that you are committed to?
He's not a Fascist, this is ludicrous hyperbole. Farage may well be a twat and something of a demagogue, but a fascist? Please
In living memory Europe suffered from actual fascists, you insult those memories with this piffle
Nonsense, it is a very accurate description. You also seem to confuse Spanish and Italian fascism with Naziism, the former of which are similar to the small brain nationalism that Farage espouses .You are probably so far off to the right that you don't consider him extreme. He has endorsed Trump. He admires Putin. Alan Sked founder of UKIP has described his racism and even as a schoolboy his housemaster of his independent school described him as a fascist. He is a modern day fascist. No hyperbole, just informed judgement. Just because he wears a tweed jacket instead of a blackshirt doesn't let him off the hook.
Does he want a corporate state and the abolition of political parties?
He really can't catch a break can he. Ok Rishi, dead easy one, we will give you some feed and the sheep will come and eat it....they do everything but come to this feed bucket.
The Unknown Stuntman seems to be having a quiet week this week. Has he run out of energy?
He really can't catch a break can he. Ok Rishi, dead easy one, we will give you some feed and the sheep will come and eat it....they do everything but come to this feed bucket.
The Unknown Stuntman seems to be having a quiet week this week. Has he run out of energy?
Building the suspense.
Going to be very disappointed if the final week of the campaign he isn't doing knife throwing, driving monster trucks on two wheels and jumping through rings of fire on a motorcross bike.
I don't believe for one second that a significant number of Tory MPs will join Reform after the election.
For the first thing, that would require there to be a significant number of Tory MPs after the election.
Well played.
In all seriousness I don't think it the most likely scenario, but I think it's possible.
I think it more likely that if the Tories are sub 100 seats that a leadership candidate advocating merger with Reform could emerge, off the threat of MPs jumping ship.
I think this is true, and was the point of my header the other day, that that's why the Conservative brand has to be Ratnered in the election, so Farage or Tory-Farage can't build off it.
The more it is Ratnered the more Farage can take over as leader of the right of centre in this country
Are you happy for a fascist to take over a party that you are committed to?
He's not a Fascist, this is ludicrous hyperbole. Farage may well be a twat and something of a demagogue, but a fascist? Please
In living memory Europe suffered from actual fascists, you insult those memories with this piffle
Nonsense, it is a very accurate description. You also seem to confuse Spanish and Italian fascism with Naziism, the former of which are similar to the small brain nationalism that Farage espouses .You are probably so far off to the right that you don't consider him extreme. He has endorsed Trump. He admires Putin. Alan Sked founder of UKIP has described his racism and even as a schoolboy his housemaster of his independent school described him as a fascist. He is a modern day fascist. No hyperbole, just informed judgement. Just because he wears a tweed jacket instead of a blackshirt doesn't let him off the hook.
Does he want a corporate state and the abolition of political parties?
Judging by his last tweet, he thinks the police are his personal fief.
Seems to work for Tory MPs when they want a rival investigated.
Sir Keir Starmer has opened the door to tax rises for millions of Britons by defining a working person as someone who relies on public services and doesn’t have savings.
The Labour leader has repeatedly ruled out putting up taxes on what he calls “working people” who he says have borne the brunt of the cost of living crisis.
Asked what he meant by the term, he said it refers to “people who earn their living, rely on our services and don’t really have the ability to write a cheque when they get into trouble”.
His definition means millions of Britons including pensioners, savers, and those who use private services like healthcare may not be covered by his tax rise pledge.
Er... that's 'and' not 'or'. Logic 101 fail there TSE (and the Torygraph obvs).
Bring it on - those like me who do not work for a living currently pay a lower proportion of their income in taxes than those who earn the same amount working. That cannot be right.
Whatever way you cut it though it looks like a Thrift Tax - those who've 'saved for a rainy day' get clobbered while the feckless get protected. Rishi's speech writes itself:
I warn you not to have savings. I warn you not get a mortgage. I warn you not to have a pension, an ISA or a cheque book.
Sir Keir needs to clarify this and sharpish. We're in Theresa's 'Dementia Tax' territory here.
How many people max out their ISA allowances? How many would notice if the maximum were halved to 10k a year, for example?
I might be a good example of someone earning good money (generally just outside top decile when the kids were small, but inside it now). For me - I hit the limit twice, the year I inherited some money when my parents died and the year after. The rest went on an extension. I guess if the allowance had been only £10k I might have topped it up a third time. Otherwise I rarely managed £5k; even allowing for inflation I would never have threatened a reduced £10k limit at any point. Due to an expensive divorce I'm currently not really saving but trying to pay the mortgage off before I'm no longer fit for work, but if not for that I would probably now save around £10k a year but only because I'm single and with no dependents
If the polling doesn't start to turn, yes. It's been one way traffic for 2 weeks solid
Well you're a keen poll watcher so let's see. If that does happen, Cons below 50, my LD seats buy at 40 could be an absolute rock star.
Could be some great human interest stories too. Would be a few LD candidates who stand without much expectation or thought of winning who end up straight in the shadow cabinet.
I don't believe for one second that a significant number of Tory MPs will join Reform after the election.
For the first thing, that would require there to be a significant number of Tory MPs after the election.
Well played.
In all seriousness I don't think it the most likely scenario, but I think it's possible.
I think it more likely that if the Tories are sub 100 seats that a leadership candidate advocating merger with Reform could emerge, off the threat of MPs jumping ship.
I think this is true, and was the point of my header the other day, that that's why the Conservative brand has to be Ratnered in the election, so Farage or Tory-Farage can't build off it.
The more it is Ratnered the more Farage can take over as leader of the right of centre in this country
Are you happy for a fascist to take over a party that you are committed to?
He's not a Fascist, this is ludicrous hyperbole. Farage may well be a twat and something of a demagogue, but a fascist? Please
In living memory Europe suffered from actual fascists, you insult those memories with this piffle
Nonsense, it is a very accurate description. You also seem to confuse Spanish and Italian fascism with Naziism, the former of which are similar to the small brain nationalism that Farage espouses .You are probably so far off to the right that you don't consider him extreme. He has endorsed Trump. He admires Putin. Alan Sked founder of UKIP has described his racism and even as a schoolboy his housemaster of his independent school described him as a fascist. He is a modern day fascist. No hyperbole, just informed judgement. Just because he wears a tweed jacket instead of a blackshirt doesn't let him off the hook.
Does he want a corporate state and the abolition of political parties?
His policing manifesto advocated the militarisation of the police and the banning of political marshes of a specific viewpoint. Near enough.
I'm not 100% sure what Farage "stands for" if I'm being honest.
He seems an unreconstructed Thatcherite in his desire for lower taxes but the Reform manifesto, to this observer, betrays the paradox which cuts through their Party. The leadership want lower personal taxes, spending cuts and are pro-business, indeed they would fit well into most incarnations of the Conservative Party.
The Reform membership and voter base are somewhere else - they want spending and plenty of it but they want it spent on them and signed up happily to the Johnsonian Levelling Up agenda and the pledges made to the north and midlands that they would see the kind of levels of local spending seen in London and the south.
The pandemic put paid to that - the enormous levels of borrowing meant projects like HS2 were aborted. Labour neglected the North, the Conservatives betrayed the North - Reform keeps the flag of Johnsonian levelling up alive and that's why they do so well in the WWC areas.
Looking further ahead, the options are either a Reform-style party or a Wagenknecht-style party. I could see a party akin to the latter existing in Britain in 10-20 years along with a strongly environmentalist, culturally liberal and economically conservative party as a third force. The latter wouldn't be Green in the conventional sense but would advocate technological innvovation to mitigate the environmental impacts of climate change while maintaining an internationalist outlook.
Politics adapts to the changing world - the 20th century notions of "left" and "right" are obsolete - the challenges of the 21st century cut across traditional demarcations.
The bigger impact could be if it changes Trump's behaviour.
The latest poll from Morning Consult has Biden 1% ahead.
I suspect the sentence Trump receives and the bounces each party receives from their conventions will move the polls more before Labour Day in early September and the real final stretch of the campaign
If the polling doesn't start to turn, yes. It's been one way traffic for 2 weeks solid
Well you're a keen poll watcher so let's see. If that does happen, Cons below 50, my LD seats buy at 40 could be an absolute rock star.
Could be some great human interest stories too. Would be a few LD candidates who stand without much expectation or thought of winning who end up straight in the shadow cabinet.
Indeed. It's going to be wild, this GE and the aftermath, if the Tories hit the lower end of these forecasts.
Sir Keir Starmer has opened the door to tax rises for millions of Britons by defining a working person as someone who relies on public services and doesn’t have savings.
The Labour leader has repeatedly ruled out putting up taxes on what he calls “working people” who he says have borne the brunt of the cost of living crisis.
Asked what he meant by the term, he said it refers to “people who earn their living, rely on our services and don’t really have the ability to write a cheque when they get into trouble”.
His definition means millions of Britons including pensioners, savers, and those who use private services like healthcare may not be covered by his tax rise pledge.
Er... that's 'and' not 'or'. Logic 101 fail there TSE (and the Torygraph obvs).
Bring it on - those like me who do not work for a living currently pay a lower proportion of their income in taxes than those who earn the same amount working. That cannot be right.
Whatever way you cut it though it looks like a Thrift Tax - those who've 'saved for a rainy day' get clobbered while the feckless get protected. Rishi's speech writes itself:
I warn you not to have savings. I warn you not get a mortgage. I warn you not to have a pension, an ISA or a cheque book.
Sir Keir needs to clarify this and sharpish. We're in Theresa's 'Dementia Tax' territory here.
How many people max out their ISA allowances? How many would notice if the maximum were halved to 10k a year, for example?
I might be a good example of someone earning good money (generally just outside top decile when the kids were small, but inside it now). For me - I hit the limit twice, the year I inherited some money when my parents died and the year after. The rest went on an extension. I guess if the allowance had been only £10k I might have topped it up a third time. Otherwise I rarely managed £5k; even allowing for inflation I would never have threatened a reduced £10k limit at any point. Due to an expensive divorce I'm currently not really saving but trying to pay the mortgage off before I'm no longer fit for work, but if not for that I would probably now save around £10k a year but only because I'm single and with no dependents
It was 1.6 millions in 2020-21. At a guess given people will get lumps thru inheritance, house or business sales, unusual bonuses, I would expect several times that number over a decade. Somewhere between 5 and 10 million to have done so at some point.
I don't believe for one second that a significant number of Tory MPs will join Reform after the election.
For the first thing, that would require there to be a significant number of Tory MPs after the election.
Well played.
In all seriousness I don't think it the most likely scenario, but I think it's possible.
I think it more likely that if the Tories are sub 100 seats that a leadership candidate advocating merger with Reform could emerge, off the threat of MPs jumping ship.
I think this is true, and was the point of my header the other day, that that's why the Conservative brand has to be Ratnered in the election, so Farage or Tory-Farage can't build off it.
The more it is Ratnered the more Farage can take over as leader of the right of centre in this country
He can be leader - if it's Ratnered, no one will vote for it, just like no one shopped in Ratner's and it had to be shut down. The centre right can come back with a new name - just like Ratner's did.
Even today's Focaldata has 37% voting for the Tories and ReformUK combined, just 6% behind Labour on 43% and miles ahead of the LDs on 10% and Greens on 5% and SNP on 2%.
Once Starmer likely becomes PM voters will want a choice not an echo from the LDs and if the Tories can't provide it as a functioning main opposition then Farage will ensure he will
Oh dear, another muppet who has moved from being a reasonably sensible centrist Tory (albeit with a masturbatory Boris Johnson-is-messiah delusion) to far right nutter.
It is not 'far right' to say that nearly 40% of the electorate still back the Tories and Reform combined and Farage is popular with most Tory voters and virtually all Reform voters
If the polling doesn't start to turn, yes. It's been one way traffic for 2 weeks solid
Well you're a keen poll watcher so let's see. If that does happen, Cons below 50, my LD seats buy at 40 could be an absolute rock star.
Could be some great human interest stories too. Would be a few LD candidates who stand without much expectation or thought of winning who end up straight in the shadow cabinet.
If the polling doesn't start to turn, yes. It's been one way traffic for 2 weeks solid
Well you're a keen poll watcher so let's see. If that does happen, Cons below 50, my LD seats buy at 40 could be an absolute rock star.
Could be some great human interest stories too. Would be a few LD candidates who stand without much expectation or thought of winning who end up straight in the shadow cabinet.
Sir Keir Starmer has opened the door to tax rises for millions of Britons by defining a working person as someone who relies on public services and doesn’t have savings.
The Labour leader has repeatedly ruled out putting up taxes on what he calls “working people” who he says have borne the brunt of the cost of living crisis.
Asked what he meant by the term, he said it refers to “people who earn their living, rely on our services and don’t really have the ability to write a cheque when they get into trouble”.
His definition means millions of Britons including pensioners, savers, and those who use private services like healthcare may not be covered by his tax rise pledge.
Er... that's 'and' not 'or'. Logic 101 fail there TSE (and the Torygraph obvs).
Bring it on - those like me who do not work for a living currently pay a lower proportion of their income in taxes than those who earn the same amount working. That cannot be right.
Whatever way you cut it though it looks like a Thrift Tax - those who've 'saved for a rainy day' get clobbered while the feckless get protected. Rishi's speech writes itself:
I warn you not to have savings. I warn you not get a mortgage. I warn you not to have a pension, an ISA or a cheque book.
Sir Keir needs to clarify this and sharpish. We're in Theresa's 'Dementia Tax' territory here.
How many people max out their ISA allowances? How many would notice if the maximum were halved to 10k a year, for example?
I might be a good example of someone earning good money (generally just outside top decile when the kids were small, but inside it now). For me - I hit the limit twice, the year I inherited some money when my parents died and the year after. The rest went on an extension. I guess if the allowance had been only £10k I might have topped it up a third time. Otherwise I rarely managed £5k; even allowing for inflation I would never have threatened a reduced £10k limit at any point. Due to an expensive divorce I'm currently not really saving but trying to pay the mortgage off before I'm no longer fit for work, but if not for that I would probably now save around £10k a year but only because I'm single and with no dependents
Median household disposable income is low thirties thousand a year.
Having 20k to put in savings is really quite a lot.
I don't believe for one second that a significant number of Tory MPs will join Reform after the election.
For the first thing, that would require there to be a significant number of Tory MPs after the election.
Well played.
In all seriousness I don't think it the most likely scenario, but I think it's possible.
I think it more likely that if the Tories are sub 100 seats that a leadership candidate advocating merger with Reform could emerge, off the threat of MPs jumping ship.
I think this is true, and was the point of my header the other day, that that's why the Conservative brand has to be Ratnered in the election, so Farage or Tory-Farage can't build off it.
The more it is Ratnered the more Farage can take over as leader of the right of centre in this country
He can be leader - if it's Ratnered, no one will vote for it, just like no one shopped in Ratner's and it had to be shut down. The centre right can come back with a new name - just like Ratner's did.
Even today's Focaldata has 37% voting for the Tories and ReformUK combined, just 6% behind Labour on 43% and miles ahead of the LDs on 10% and Greens on 5% and SNP on 2%.
Once Starmer likely becomes PM voters will want a choice not an echo from the LDs and if the Tories can't provide it as a functioning main opposition then Farage will ensure he will
All of this reunite the right stuff seems to assume that you can just add what remains of the Conservative vote to that of Reform. Surely a merger of the two is likely to put off as many of the voters who stuck with the Conservatives as it brings in from those who voted Reform in 2024?
Doorknocking for Labour this weekend. First flat got a f@£# off almost instantly on pressing the buzzer. A lot of labour posters up.
And met a 93 year old life long Tory voter who told me that although he worried Lab don't have enough business people in the party, he'd vote Lab this time as Tories have messed everything up.
He said I couldn't count on his vote in five years time with a wink.
The bigger impact could be if it changes Trump's behaviour.
The latest poll from Morning Consult has Biden 1% ahead.
I suspect the sentence Trump receives and the bounces each party receives from their conventions will move the polls more before Labour Day in early September and the real final stretch of the campaign
Dow reaching 40,000 a big psychological milestone for Americans who vote primarily on the economy, who are the only swing voters left (also volatility in turnout with Biden and Trump voters, but people aren't switching between those camps).
I don't believe for one second that a significant number of Tory MPs will join Reform after the election.
For the first thing, that would require there to be a significant number of Tory MPs after the election.
Well played.
In all seriousness I don't think it the most likely scenario, but I think it's possible.
I think it more likely that if the Tories are sub 100 seats that a leadership candidate advocating merger with Reform could emerge, off the threat of MPs jumping ship.
I think this is true, and was the point of my header the other day, that that's why the Conservative brand has to be Ratnered in the election, so Farage or Tory-Farage can't build off it.
The more it is Ratnered the more Farage can take over as leader of the right of centre in this country
Are you happy for a fascist to take over a party that you are committed to?
He's not a Fascist, this is ludicrous hyperbole. Farage may well be a twat and something of a demagogue, but a fascist? Please
In living memory Europe suffered from actual fascists, you insult those memories with this piffle
Nonsense, it is a very accurate description. You also seem to confuse Spanish and Italian fascism with Naziism, the former of which are similar to the small brain nationalism that Farage espouses .You are probably so far off to the right that you don't consider him extreme. He has endorsed Trump. He admires Putin. Alan Sked founder of UKIP has described his racism and even as a schoolboy his housemaster of his independent school described him as a fascist. He is a modern day fascist. No hyperbole, just informed judgement. Just because he wears a tweed jacket instead of a blackshirt doesn't let him off the hook.
Does he want a corporate state and the abolition of political parties?
His policing manifesto advocated the militarisation of the police and the banning of political marshes of a specific viewpoint. Near enough.
I don't believe for one second that a significant number of Tory MPs will join Reform after the election.
For the first thing, that would require there to be a significant number of Tory MPs after the election.
Well played.
In all seriousness I don't think it the most likely scenario, but I think it's possible.
I think it more likely that if the Tories are sub 100 seats that a leadership candidate advocating merger with Reform could emerge, off the threat of MPs jumping ship.
I think this is true, and was the point of my header the other day, that that's why the Conservative brand has to be Ratnered in the election, so Farage or Tory-Farage can't build off it.
The more it is Ratnered the more Farage can take over as leader of the right of centre in this country
He can be leader - if it's Ratnered, no one will vote for it, just like no one shopped in Ratner's and it had to be shut down. The centre right can come back with a new name - just like Ratner's did.
Even today's Focaldata has 37% voting for the Tories and ReformUK combined, just 6% behind Labour on 43% and miles ahead of the LDs on 10% and Greens on 5% and SNP on 2%.
Once Starmer likely becomes PM voters will want a choice not an echo from the LDs and if the Tories can't provide it as a functioning main opposition then Farage will ensure he will
Oh dear, another muppet who has moved from being a reasonably sensible centrist Tory (albeit with a masturbatory Boris Johnson-is-messiah delusion) to far right nutter.
It is not 'far right' to say that nearly 40% of the electorate still back the Tories and Reform combined and Farage is popular with most Tory voters and virtually all Reform voters
What happened to HYUFD the one nation Tory?You are rubbing shoulders with a rum old bunch bringing Farage into your orbit. What next? Little Tommy Ten Names.
The thread header is interesting but the title is dumb - at least as far as the body of the article goes.
'Wanting to overturn a democratic vote' is clearly designed to have Trumpian overtones. But that is not what is said in the article. All that says is that some MPs will leave the party if they don't like the direction it is pursuing
This seems perfectly reasonable to me and it us something MPs have done on a regular basis since Parliamentary democracy was born.
That is not 'wanting to overturn a democratic vote' at all, anymore than it was when TSE refused to support Truss.
I don't believe for one second that a significant number of Tory MPs will join Reform after the election.
For the first thing, that would require there to be a significant number of Tory MPs after the election.
Well played.
In all seriousness I don't think it the most likely scenario, but I think it's possible.
I think it more likely that if the Tories are sub 100 seats that a leadership candidate advocating merger with Reform could emerge, off the threat of MPs jumping ship.
I think this is true, and was the point of my header the other day, that that's why the Conservative brand has to be Ratnered in the election, so Farage or Tory-Farage can't build off it.
The more it is Ratnered the more Farage can take over as leader of the right of centre in this country
He can be leader - if it's Ratnered, no one will vote for it, just like no one shopped in Ratner's and it had to be shut down. The centre right can come back with a new name - just like Ratner's did.
Even today's Focaldata has 37% voting for the Tories and ReformUK combined, just 6% behind Labour on 43% and miles ahead of the LDs on 10% and Greens on 5% and SNP on 2%.
Once Starmer likely becomes PM voters will want a choice not an echo from the LDs and if the Tories can't provide it as a functioning main opposition then Farage will ensure he will
So what you are saying is that Labour is well ahead of the next two parties combined. A hell of a strong position to be in when we have a FPTP voting system.
And if Farage on his own can provide a functioning opposition, so can the Greens - especially if there are two of them.
I don't believe for one second that a significant number of Tory MPs will join Reform after the election.
For the first thing, that would require there to be a significant number of Tory MPs after the election.
Well played.
In all seriousness I don't think it the most likely scenario, but I think it's possible.
I think it more likely that if the Tories are sub 100 seats that a leadership candidate advocating merger with Reform could emerge, off the threat of MPs jumping ship.
I think this is true, and was the point of my header the other day, that that's why the Conservative brand has to be Ratnered in the election, so Farage or Tory-Farage can't build off it.
The more it is Ratnered the more Farage can take over as leader of the right of centre in this country
He can be leader - if it's Ratnered, no one will vote for it, just like no one shopped in Ratner's and it had to be shut down. The centre right can come back with a new name - just like Ratner's did.
Even today's Focaldata has 37% voting for the Tories and ReformUK combined, just 6% behind Labour on 43% and miles ahead of the LDs on 10% and Greens on 5% and SNP on 2%.
Once Starmer likely becomes PM voters will want a choice not an echo from the LDs and if the Tories can't provide it as a functioning main opposition then Farage will ensure he will
All of this reunite the right stuff seems to assume that you can just add what remains of the Conservative vote to that of Reform. Surely a merger of the two is likely to put off as many of the voters who stuck with the Conservatives as it brings in from those who voted Reform in 2024?
Thank you, Stereo, for pointing out the obvious.
In any merger, however successful, there is always some short-term loss, no matter what the long-term gains.
You cannot just add the two percentages together. It's nonsense. You may, with luck, retain 80% of the support of the two original parties, but more likely the wastage would be greater.
It's a crushing blow not to be on Leon's list. I'm staring at the bollard outside my bedsit but even the mandatory drizzle can't cheer me. I'm shaken. To the core.
If the polling doesn't start to turn, yes. It's been one way traffic for 2 weeks solid
Well you're a keen poll watcher so let's see. If that does happen, Cons below 50, my LD seats buy at 40 could be an absolute rock star.
Could be some great human interest stories too. Would be a few LD candidates who stand without much expectation or thought of winning who end up straight in the shadow cabinet.
I'm not 100% sure what Farage "stands for" if I'm being honest.
He seems an unreconstructed Thatcherite in his desire for lower taxes but the Reform manifesto, to this observer, betrays the paradox which cuts through their Party. The leadership want lower personal taxes, spending cuts and are pro-business, indeed they would fit well into most incarnations of the Conservative Party.
The Reform membership and voter base are somewhere else - they want spending and plenty of it but they want it spent on them and signed up happily to the Johnsonian Levelling Up agenda and the pledges made to the north and midlands that they would see the kind of levels of local spending seen in London and the south.
The pandemic put paid to that - the enormous levels of borrowing meant projects like HS2 were aborted. Labour neglected the North, the Conservatives betrayed the North - Reform keeps the flag of Johnsonian levelling up alive and that's why they do so well in the WWC areas.
Looking further ahead, the options are either a Reform-style party or a Wagenknecht-style party. I could see a party akin to the latter existing in Britain in 10-20 years along with a strongly environmentalist, culturally liberal and economically conservative party as a third force. The latter wouldn't be Green in the conventional sense but would advocate technological innvovation to mitigate the environmental impacts of climate change while maintaining an internationalist outlook.
Politics adapts to the changing world - the 20th century notions of "left" and "right" are obsolete - the challenges of the 21st century cut across traditional demarcations.
I don't believe for one second that a significant number of Tory MPs will join Reform after the election.
For the first thing, that would require there to be a significant number of Tory MPs after the election.
Well played.
In all seriousness I don't think it the most likely scenario, but I think it's possible.
I think it more likely that if the Tories are sub 100 seats that a leadership candidate advocating merger with Reform could emerge, off the threat of MPs jumping ship.
I think this is true, and was the point of my header the other day, that that's why the Conservative brand has to be Ratnered in the election, so Farage or Tory-Farage can't build off it.
The more it is Ratnered the more Farage can take over as leader of the right of centre in this country
Are you happy for a fascist to take over a party that you are committed to?
He's not a Fascist, this is ludicrous hyperbole. Farage may well be a twat and something of a demagogue, but a fascist? Please
In living memory Europe suffered from actual fascists, you insult those memories with this piffle
Nonsense, it is a very accurate description. You also seem to confuse Spanish and Italian fascism with Naziism, the former of which are similar to the small brain nationalism that Farage espouses .You are probably so far off to the right that you don't consider him extreme. He has endorsed Trump. He admires Putin. Alan Sked founder of UKIP has described his racism and even as a schoolboy his housemaster of his independent school described him as a fascist. He is a modern day fascist. No hyperbole, just informed judgement. Just because he wears a tweed jacket instead of a blackshirt doesn't let him off the hook.
Does he want a corporate state and the abolition of political parties?
For all those of you who don't know what corporatism or the corporate state is, here is a handy explainer:
Doorknocking for Labour this weekend. First flat got a f@£# off almost instantly on pressing the buzzer. A lot of labour posters up.
And met a 93 year old life long Tory voter who told me that although he worried Lab don't have enough business people in the party, he'd vote Lab this time as Tories have messed everything up.
He said I couldn't count on his vote in five years time with a wink.
Consistent polling suggests there are about 1.6-1.8 million examples of your 93 year old (2019 Tories voting Labour), and they are not all 93. Add to that some DKs who will add to them, + the 2019 Tories who will vote Reform, Binface, stay at home and so on, each of which is effectively a vote for Lab or LD as relevant (each of the switchers counts as two votes) and the Tories have a problem.
Just back from a drive around West Yorkshire to see what election activity there is. I kept to the main roads and went through Spen Valley, Leeds Central and Headingly, Leeds West and Pudsey, Leeds NE, Leeds NW, Harrogate and Knaresborough, Braford East, and Bradford South. The only posters/stakeboards I saw were in Bradford East ( Labour) and H and K (Lib Dem). I also went through Colne Valley and Huddersfield but the local tradition there is to put posters on lamp posts - of which there are many.
I don't believe for one second that a significant number of Tory MPs will join Reform after the election.
For the first thing, that would require there to be a significant number of Tory MPs after the election.
Well played.
In all seriousness I don't think it the most likely scenario, but I think it's possible.
I think it more likely that if the Tories are sub 100 seats that a leadership candidate advocating merger with Reform could emerge, off the threat of MPs jumping ship.
I think this is true, and was the point of my header the other day, that that's why the Conservative brand has to be Ratnered in the election, so Farage or Tory-Farage can't build off it.
The more it is Ratnered the more Farage can take over as leader of the right of centre in this country
He can be leader - if it's Ratnered, no one will vote for it, just like no one shopped in Ratner's and it had to be shut down. The centre right can come back with a new name - just like Ratner's did.
Even today's Focaldata has 37% voting for the Tories and ReformUK combined, just 6% behind Labour on 43% and miles ahead of the LDs on 10% and Greens on 5% and SNP on 2%.
Once Starmer likely becomes PM voters will want a choice not an echo from the LDs and if the Tories can't provide it as a functioning main opposition then Farage will ensure he will
All of this reunite the right stuff seems to assume that you can just add what remains of the Conservative vote to that of Reform. Surely a merger of the two is likely to put off as many of the voters who stuck with the Conservatives as it brings in from those who voted Reform in 2024?
The right was almost united at the last election. 47% voted either Con or Brexit Party, with 45% Con and 2% Brexit. So it is possible to unite that vote under the right circumstances. Boris somehow managed to do it.
I don't believe for one second that a significant number of Tory MPs will join Reform after the election.
For the first thing, that would require there to be a significant number of Tory MPs after the election.
Well played.
In all seriousness I don't think it the most likely scenario, but I think it's possible.
I think it more likely that if the Tories are sub 100 seats that a leadership candidate advocating merger with Reform could emerge, off the threat of MPs jumping ship.
I think this is true, and was the point of my header the other day, that that's why the Conservative brand has to be Ratnered in the election, so Farage or Tory-Farage can't build off it.
The more it is Ratnered the more Farage can take over as leader of the right of centre in this country
He can be leader - if it's Ratnered, no one will vote for it, just like no one shopped in Ratner's and it had to be shut down. The centre right can come back with a new name - just like Ratner's did.
Even today's Focaldata has 37% voting for the Tories and ReformUK combined, just 6% behind Labour on 43% and miles ahead of the LDs on 10% and Greens on 5% and SNP on 2%.
Once Starmer likely becomes PM voters will want a choice not an echo from the LDs and if the Tories can't provide it as a functioning main opposition then Farage will ensure he will
All of this reunite the right stuff seems to assume that you can just add what remains of the Conservative vote to that of Reform. Surely a merger of the two is likely to put off as many of the voters who stuck with the Conservatives as it brings in from those who voted Reform in 2024?
Thank you, Stereo, for pointing out the obvious.
In any merger, however successful, there is always some short-term loss, no matter what the long-term gains.
You cannot just add the two percentages together. It's nonsense. You may, with luck, retain 80% of the support of the two original parties, but more likely the wastage would be greater.
I've recently been reading David Torrance's book on the first Labour Government. One of their main aims was to kill off the Liberals as a competitor for the anti Tory vote. They achieved this but with the short and medium term consequence of gifting loads of ex Liberal voters who couldn't stomach socialism to the Tories. If Reform do manage to kill the Tories by absorbing them then I think the same would happen.
Sir Keir Starmer has opened the door to tax rises for millions of Britons by defining a working person as someone who relies on public services and doesn’t have savings.
The Labour leader has repeatedly ruled out putting up taxes on what he calls “working people” who he says have borne the brunt of the cost of living crisis.
Asked what he meant by the term, he said it refers to “people who earn their living, rely on our services and don’t really have the ability to write a cheque when they get into trouble”.
His definition means millions of Britons including pensioners, savers, and those who use private services like healthcare may not be covered by his tax rise pledge.
Er... that's 'and' not 'or'. Logic 101 fail there TSE (and the Torygraph obvs).
Bring it on - those like me who do not work for a living currently pay a lower proportion of their income in taxes than those who earn the same amount working. That cannot be right.
Whatever way you cut it though it looks like a Thrift Tax - those who've 'saved for a rainy day' get clobbered while the feckless get protected. Rishi's speech writes itself:
I warn you not to have savings. I warn you not get a mortgage. I warn you not to have a pension, an ISA or a cheque book.
Sir Keir needs to clarify this and sharpish. We're in Theresa's 'Dementia Tax' territory here.
How many people max out their ISA allowances? How many would notice if the maximum were halved to 10k a year, for example?
I might be a good example of someone earning good money (generally just outside top decile when the kids were small, but inside it now). For me - I hit the limit twice, the year I inherited some money when my parents died and the year after. The rest went on an extension. I guess if the allowance had been only £10k I might have topped it up a third time. Otherwise I rarely managed £5k; even allowing for inflation I would never have threatened a reduced £10k limit at any point. Due to an expensive divorce I'm currently not really saving but trying to pay the mortgage off before I'm no longer fit for work, but if not for that I would probably now save around £10k a year but only because I'm single and with no dependents
Median household disposable income is low thirties thousand a year.
Having 20k to put in savings is really quite a lot.
It is and that was what I was trying to demonstrate - you would have to earn a lot more than I have ever done (so top 5% of earnings, I guess) to breach a £10k limit on a consistent basis over a working life. So it would affect most people hardly or not at all.
If the polling doesn't start to turn, yes. It's been one way traffic for 2 weeks solid
Well you're a keen poll watcher so let's see. If that does happen, Cons below 50, my LD seats buy at 40 could be an absolute rock star.
Could be some great human interest stories too. Would be a few LD candidates who stand without much expectation or thought of winning who end up straight in the shadow cabinet.
I don't believe for one second that a significant number of Tory MPs will join Reform after the election.
For the first thing, that would require there to be a significant number of Tory MPs after the election.
Well played.
In all seriousness I don't think it the most likely scenario, but I think it's possible.
I think it more likely that if the Tories are sub 100 seats that a leadership candidate advocating merger with Reform could emerge, off the threat of MPs jumping ship.
I think this is true, and was the point of my header the other day, that that's why the Conservative brand has to be Ratnered in the election, so Farage or Tory-Farage can't build off it.
The more it is Ratnered the more Farage can take over as leader of the right of centre in this country
Are you happy for a fascist to take over a party that you are committed to?
He's not a Fascist, this is ludicrous hyperbole. Farage may well be a twat and something of a demagogue, but a fascist? Please
In living memory Europe suffered from actual fascists, you insult those memories with this piffle
Nonsense, it is a very accurate description. You also seem to confuse Spanish and Italian fascism with Naziism, the former of which are similar to the small brain nationalism that Farage espouses .You are probably so far off to the right that you don't consider him extreme. He has endorsed Trump. He admires Putin. Alan Sked founder of UKIP has described his racism and even as a schoolboy his housemaster of his independent school described him as a fascist. He is a modern day fascist. No hyperbole, just informed judgement. Just because he wears a tweed jacket instead of a blackshirt doesn't let him off the hook.
Does he want a corporate state and the abolition of political parties?
He hasn't announced it yet, but I am sure if it is expedient he will do whatever Trump tells him is a good idea.
If the polling doesn't start to turn, yes. It's been one way traffic for 2 weeks solid
Got to admit I was expecting things to begin narrowing.
Maybe they still will. Maybe the constant tax attack will stick. Time is running out though.
It is. Movement needed on some level by the weekend I'd say if we are to see anything like a 1997/2001 result
Until the final Starmer v Sunak debate at 9pm on BBC1 next Wednesday and the polls after we won't get a full picture of what the final GE result is likely to be, even if Labour almost certainly win the margin is still not yet set in stone
In Woking there are loads of LibDem banners. I’ve not seen one single Conservative one. And yet, this is a Cons seat. Jonathan Lord had a majority of nearly 10,000 last time.
Although this is going to be a LibDem gain, those 50% who voted Cons last time cannot have ALL given up (can they?!).
So, to state the obvious, there aren’t just shy tories out there, but there must be ashamed tories.
I’m not suggesting the polls are wrong because presumably you’d fess up to a pollster, wouldn’t you? But there must be a fair number of people who are going to vote Conservative who wouldn’t dare admit it this time.
There's no need for confusion on the tax question. Labour will raise ALL taxes, they won't have any choice
Everyone knows that, the size of their majority depends upon which ones they admit they are planning to raise.
Labour are gonna end up hated, really quite quickly
After that, Farage beckons
I agree. Starmer is getting a hospital pass.
Whatever else Sunak does or dosent know, he has a fair idea how international finance works and when the balloon is likely to go up and has gone to the King taken his parachute and jumped out quick.
I don't believe for one second that a significant number of Tory MPs will join Reform after the election.
For the first thing, that would require there to be a significant number of Tory MPs after the election.
Well played.
In all seriousness I don't think it the most likely scenario, but I think it's possible.
I think it more likely that if the Tories are sub 100 seats that a leadership candidate advocating merger with Reform could emerge, off the threat of MPs jumping ship.
I think this is true, and was the point of my header the other day, that that's why the Conservative brand has to be Ratnered in the election, so Farage or Tory-Farage can't build off it.
The more it is Ratnered the more Farage can take over as leader of the right of centre in this country
He can be leader - if it's Ratnered, no one will vote for it, just like no one shopped in Ratner's and it had to be shut down. The centre right can come back with a new name - just like Ratner's did.
Even today's Focaldata has 37% voting for the Tories and ReformUK combined, just 6% behind Labour on 43% and miles ahead of the LDs on 10% and Greens on 5% and SNP on 2%.
Once Starmer likely becomes PM voters will want a choice not an echo from the LDs and if the Tories can't provide it as a functioning main opposition then Farage will ensure he will
So what you are saying is that Labour is well ahead of the next two parties combined. A hell of a strong position to be in when we have a FPTP voting system.
And if Farage on his own can provide a functioning opposition, so can the Greens - especially if there are two of them.
If Farage is on his own it means the Tories are still likely on 150+ seats and can perfectly well still provide a functioning opposition themselves
If the polling doesn't start to turn, yes. It's been one way traffic for 2 weeks solid
Well you're a keen poll watcher so let's see. If that does happen, Cons below 50, my LD seats buy at 40 could be an absolute rock star.
Could be some great human interest stories too. Would be a few LD candidates who stand without much expectation or thought of winning who end up straight in the shadow cabinet.
Sir Keir Starmer has opened the door to tax rises for millions of Britons by defining a working person as someone who relies on public services and doesn’t have savings.
The Labour leader has repeatedly ruled out putting up taxes on what he calls “working people” who he says have borne the brunt of the cost of living crisis.
Asked what he meant by the term, he said it refers to “people who earn their living, rely on our services and don’t really have the ability to write a cheque when they get into trouble”.
His definition means millions of Britons including pensioners, savers, and those who use private services like healthcare may not be covered by his tax rise pledge.
Er... that's 'and' not 'or'. Logic 101 fail there TSE (and the Torygraph obvs).
Bring it on - those like me who do not work for a living currently pay a lower proportion of their income in taxes than those who earn the same amount working. That cannot be right.
Whatever way you cut it though it looks like a Thrift Tax - those who've 'saved for a rainy day' get clobbered while the feckless get protected. Rishi's speech writes itself:
I warn you not to have savings. I warn you not get a mortgage. I warn you not to have a pension, an ISA or a cheque book.
Sir Keir needs to clarify this and sharpish. We're in Theresa's 'Dementia Tax' territory here.
How many people max out their ISA allowances? How many would notice if the maximum were halved to 10k a year, for example?
I might be a good example of someone earning good money (generally just outside top decile when the kids were small, but inside it now). For me - I hit the limit twice, the year I inherited some money when my parents died and the year after. The rest went on an extension. I guess if the allowance had been only £10k I might have topped it up a third time. Otherwise I rarely managed £5k; even allowing for inflation I would never have threatened a reduced £10k limit at any point. Due to an expensive divorce I'm currently not really saving but trying to pay the mortgage off before I'm no longer fit for work, but if not for that I would probably now save around £10k a year but only because I'm single and with no dependents
Median household disposable income is low thirties thousand a year.
Having 20k to put in savings is really quite a lot.
It is and that was what I was trying to demonstrate - you would have to earn a lot more than I have ever done (so top 5% of earnings, I guess) to breach a £10k limit on a consistent basis over a working life. So it would affect most people hardly or not at all.
During 2008 it was interesting to hear some from the Left getting confused by the idea that fairly ordinary people could have 5 figure savings in bank accounts. No, someone having £23k in a building society savings account is not “Speculator”, Citizen Smith.
The bigger impact could be if it changes Trump's behaviour.
The latest poll from Morning Consult has Biden 1% ahead.
I suspect the sentence Trump receives and the bounces each party receives from their conventions will move the polls more before Labour Day in early September and the real final stretch of the campaign
Dow reaching 40,000 a big psychological milestone for Americans who vote primarily on the economy, who are the only swing voters left (also volatility in turnout with Biden and Trump voters, but people aren't switching between those camps).
In Woking there are loads of LibDem banners. I’ve not seen one single Conservative one. And yet, this is a Cons seat. Jonathan Lord had a majority of nearly 10,000 last time.
Although this is going to be a LibDem gain, those 50% who voted Cons last time cannot have ALL given up (can they?!).
So, to state the obvious, there aren’t just shy tories out there, but there must be ashamed tories.
I’m not suggesting the polls are wrong because presumably you’d fess up to a pollster, wouldn’t you? But there must be a fair number of people who are going to vote Conservative who wouldn’t dare admit it this time.
Or have I got that wrong?
Haven't you noticed that 99% of Tories haven't been putting up election posters for about 20 years?
The bigger impact could be if it changes Trump's behaviour.
The latest poll from Morning Consult has Biden 1% ahead.
I suspect the sentence Trump receives and the bounces each party receives from their conventions will move the polls more before Labour Day in early September and the real final stretch of the campaign
Dow reaching 40,000 a big psychological milestone for Americans who vote primarily on the economy, who are the only swing voters left (also volatility in turnout with Biden and Trump voters, but people aren't switching between those camps).
The conventions normally produce a 5% average bounce so they will be key too, the Democrats will be helped by theirs going last this year.
Since 2000 the party whose nominee's convention is last has led most polls on Labour Day (the exception being 2020 but that was just online talks really, neither party had a proper convention due to Covid).
In Woking there are loads of LibDem banners. I’ve not seen one single Conservative one. And yet, this is a Cons seat. Jonathan Lord had a majority of nearly 10,000 last time.
Although this is going to be a LibDem gain, those 50% who voted Cons last time cannot have ALL given up (can they?!).
So, to state the obvious, there aren’t just shy tories out there, but there must be ashamed tories.
I’m not suggesting the polls are wrong because presumably you’d fess up to a pollster, wouldn’t you? But there must be a fair number of people who are going to vote Conservative who wouldn’t dare admit it this time.
Or have I got that wrong?
Tories don't do placards in general except in farmers fields etc There could well be a silent tory vote of some level, yes, not very much though imo Looks like no YG/Sky tonight
In Woking there are loads of LibDem banners. I’ve not seen one single Conservative one. And yet, this is a Cons seat. Jonathan Lord had a majority of nearly 10,000 last time.
Although this is going to be a LibDem gain, those 50% who voted Cons last time cannot have ALL given up (can they?!).
So, to state the obvious, there aren’t just shy tories out there, but there must be ashamed tories.
I’m not suggesting the polls are wrong because presumably you’d fess up to a pollster, wouldn’t you? But there must be a fair number of people who are going to vote Conservative who wouldn’t dare admit it this time.
Or have I got that wrong?
Haven't you noticed that 99% of Tories haven't been putting up election posters for about 20 years?
Not really, Andy. We normally see a fair smattering of tory ones in Woking. But this time? Absolutely zilch. It’s quite remarkable.
If the polling doesn't start to turn, yes. It's been one way traffic for 2 weeks solid
Got to admit I was expecting things to begin narrowing.
Maybe they still will. Maybe the constant tax attack will stick. Time is running out though.
It's looking like your admirably early call of a 97 type landslide for SKS might end up being wrong in a way that nobody but nobody would have predicted.
It's a crushing blow not to be on Leon's list. I'm staring at the bollard outside my bedsit but even the mandatory drizzle can't cheer me. I'm shaken. To the core.
I'll do another one next year. You never know
I might not last. I'm thinking of doing something drastic.
Thinking of Voting Reform? Do something more sensible like training to be a Kamikaze pilot.
Sir Keir Starmer has opened the door to tax rises for millions of Britons by defining a working person as someone who relies on public services and doesn’t have savings.
The Labour leader has repeatedly ruled out putting up taxes on what he calls “working people” who he says have borne the brunt of the cost of living crisis.
Asked what he meant by the term, he said it refers to “people who earn their living, rely on our services and don’t really have the ability to write a cheque when they get into trouble”.
His definition means millions of Britons including pensioners, savers, and those who use private services like healthcare may not be covered by his tax rise pledge.
Er... that's 'and' not 'or'. Logic 101 fail there TSE (and the Torygraph obvs).
Bring it on - those like me who do not work for a living currently pay a lower proportion of their income in taxes than those who earn the same amount working. That cannot be right.
Whatever way you cut it though it looks like a Thrift Tax - those who've 'saved for a rainy day' get clobbered while the feckless get protected. Rishi's speech writes itself:
I warn you not to have savings. I warn you not get a mortgage. I warn you not to have a pension, an ISA or a cheque book.
Sir Keir needs to clarify this and sharpish. We're in Theresa's 'Dementia Tax' territory here.
How many people max out their ISA allowances? How many would notice if the maximum were halved to 10k a year, for example?
I might be a good example of someone earning good money (generally just outside top decile when the kids were small, but inside it now). For me - I hit the limit twice, the year I inherited some money when my parents died and the year after. The rest went on an extension. I guess if the allowance had been only £10k I might have topped it up a third time. Otherwise I rarely managed £5k; even allowing for inflation I would never have threatened a reduced £10k limit at any point. Due to an expensive divorce I'm currently not really saving but trying to pay the mortgage off before I'm no longer fit for work, but if not for that I would probably now save around £10k a year but only because I'm single and with no dependents
Median household disposable income is low thirties thousand a year.
Having 20k to put in savings is really quite a lot.
It is and that was what I was trying to demonstrate - you would have to earn a lot more than I have ever done (so top 5% of earnings, I guess) to breach a £10k limit on a consistent basis over a working life. So it would affect most people hardly or not at all.
I have managed to use up the limit for a good decade now. And I'm avoiding the 40% threshold by cutting hours, so I'm nowhere near the top 5%.
I'm going to be mightily annoyed if that gets penalised, as I intend to become 'economically inactive' soon.
Surely Labour won't de-ISA savings though? I can see that they might lower the limit.
He really can't catch a break can he. Ok Rishi, dead easy one, we will give you some feed and the sheep will come and eat it....they do everything but come to this feed bucket.
The Unknown Stuntman seems to be having a quiet week this week. Has he run out of energy?
Building the suspense.
Going to be very disappointed if the final week of the campaign he isn't doing knife throwing, driving monster trucks on two wheels and jumping through rings of fire on a motorcross bike.
If he steals Bluebird out of the museum and gets to 250mph, I’ll vote Lib Dem.
In Woking there are loads of LibDem banners. I’ve not seen one single Conservative one. And yet, this is a Cons seat. Jonathan Lord had a majority of nearly 10,000 last time.
Although this is going to be a LibDem gain, those 50% who voted Cons last time cannot have ALL given up (can they?!).
So, to state the obvious, there aren’t just shy tories out there, but there must be ashamed tories.
I’m not suggesting the polls are wrong because presumably you’d fess up to a pollster, wouldn’t you? But there must be a fair number of people who are going to vote Conservative who wouldn’t dare admit it this time.
Or have I got that wrong?
Haven't you noticed that 99% of Tories haven't been putting up election posters for about 20 years?
Yes, most Tories generally think putting up a poster showing their voting preference is a bit common.
Farmers in fields who back the Tories do it, few other Tories do (plus they don't want a brick through the window)
I don't believe for one second that a significant number of Tory MPs will join Reform after the election.
For the first thing, that would require there to be a significant number of Tory MPs after the election.
Well played.
In all seriousness I don't think it the most likely scenario, but I think it's possible.
I think it more likely that if the Tories are sub 100 seats that a leadership candidate advocating merger with Reform could emerge, off the threat of MPs jumping ship.
I think this is true, and was the point of my header the other day, that that's why the Conservative brand has to be Ratnered in the election, so Farage or Tory-Farage can't build off it.
The more it is Ratnered the more Farage can take over as leader of the right of centre in this country
He can be leader - if it's Ratnered, no one will vote for it, just like no one shopped in Ratner's and it had to be shut down. The centre right can come back with a new name - just like Ratner's did.
Even today's Focaldata has 37% voting for the Tories and ReformUK combined, just 6% behind Labour on 43% and miles ahead of the LDs on 10% and Greens on 5% and SNP on 2%.
Once Starmer likely becomes PM voters will want a choice not an echo from the LDs and if the Tories can't provide it as a functioning main opposition then Farage will ensure he will
So what you are saying is that Labour is well ahead of the next two parties combined. A hell of a strong position to be in when we have a FPTP voting system.
And if Farage on his own can provide a functioning opposition, so can the Greens - especially if there are two of them.
If Farage is on his own it means the Tories are still likely on 150+ seats and can perfectly well still provide a functioning opposition themselves
Not sure the Tories are capable of providing a functioning anything
Labour has an implied vote share of 43%, with Rishi Sunak’s Tories on 25%, Reform UK on 12%, the Lib Dems on 10%, the Greens on 6%, the SNP on 3% and Plaid Cymru on 1%.
I remember posting on here that at GE2017 I only saw one Tory poster during the entire campaign, which was in a field just outside Maidenhead IIRC. Yet the Tories got 44% of the vote.
I don't believe for one second that a significant number of Tory MPs will join Reform after the election.
For the first thing, that would require there to be a significant number of Tory MPs after the election.
Well played.
In all seriousness I don't think it the most likely scenario, but I think it's possible.
I think it more likely that if the Tories are sub 100 seats that a leadership candidate advocating merger with Reform could emerge, off the threat of MPs jumping ship.
I think this is true, and was the point of my header the other day, that that's why the Conservative brand has to be Ratnered in the election, so Farage or Tory-Farage can't build off it.
The more it is Ratnered the more Farage can take over as leader of the right of centre in this country
Are you happy for a fascist to take over a party that you are committed to?
Are you happy for hyperbolic over use of the word "fascist" to detoxify it and in time make actual fascists electable?
What ever else Farage is or isn't he dosent advocate violence to get his way politically and run paramilitary organisations to firm up his support and and intimidate opponents
Howecer the three main parties have an unfortunate record, even in recent decades, when it comes to appeasing parties in the UK with Westminster seats who did.
In Woking there are loads of LibDem banners. I’ve not seen one single Conservative one. And yet, this is a Cons seat. Jonathan Lord had a majority of nearly 10,000 last time.
Although this is going to be a LibDem gain, those 50% who voted Cons last time cannot have ALL given up (can they?!).
So, to state the obvious, there aren’t just shy tories out there, but there must be ashamed tories.
I’m not suggesting the polls are wrong because presumably you’d fess up to a pollster, wouldn’t you? But there must be a fair number of people who are going to vote Conservative who wouldn’t dare admit it this time.
Or have I got that wrong?
Haven't you noticed that 99% of Tories haven't been putting up election posters for about 20 years?
Not really, Andy. We normally see a fair smattering of tory ones in Woking. But this time? Absolutely zilch. It’s quite remarkable.
Hence why I remarked on it
There's a load of Labour posters on Delancey St
This is Skyr Toolmakersson's own constituency, he is going to get a majority of 982,047
I can't get my head around the mentality of someone who puts up a Labour poster in that context. Are they perhaps rich nervous Brexity ex-Tories working in the City (we have a few on Delancey) or more like Germans in Nuremburg putting up swastikas as Leni Reifenstahl's camera crew rolls past?
It's a crushing blow not to be on Leon's list. I'm staring at the bollard outside my bedsit but even the mandatory drizzle can't cheer me. I'm shaken. To the core.
I'll do another one next year. You never know
I might not last. I'm thinking of doing something drastic.
Thinking of Voting Reform? Do something more sensible like training to be a Kamikaze pilot.
To be fair, I've looked at all my local candidates and the Reform one actually made the top 5
Top 5 what?
Top 5 Candidates to Be Mooned? Top 5 Candidates to be given the raspberry?
Yes the new Mori MRP this evening gives Labour 453 seats, Tories 115, LDs 38 and SNP 15, plus 3 each for Reform and the Greens.
Suggests a Labour landslide but the Sunak Tories holding up better in the bluewall now than the redwall. It has Hunt holding Godalming and Ash for example by a narrow margin over the LDs
What are the chances of a red card in this Turkey / Georgia match.
Brilliantly, the football so far matches the actual relationship between Georgia and Turkey - feisty and fiery, with Turkey dominant but no way the Georgians will ever back down
In Woking there are loads of LibDem banners. I’ve not seen one single Conservative one. And yet, this is a Cons seat. Jonathan Lord had a majority of nearly 10,000 last time.
Although this is going to be a LibDem gain, those 50% who voted Cons last time cannot have ALL given up (can they?!).
So, to state the obvious, there aren’t just shy tories out there, but there must be ashamed tories.
I’m not suggesting the polls are wrong because presumably you’d fess up to a pollster, wouldn’t you? But there must be a fair number of people who are going to vote Conservative who wouldn’t dare admit it this time.
Or have I got that wrong?
Haven't you noticed that 99% of Tories haven't been putting up election posters for about 20 years?
Not really, Andy. We normally see a fair smattering of tory ones in Woking. But this time? Absolutely zilch. It’s quite remarkable.
Hence why I remarked on it
There's a load of Labour posters on Delancey St
This is Skyr Toolmakersson's own constituency, he is going to get a majority of 982,047
I can't get my head around the mentality of someone who puts up a Labour poster in that context. Are they perhaps rich nervous Brexity ex-Tories working in the City (we have a few on Delancey) or more like Germans in Nuremburg putting up swastikas as Leni Reifenstahl's camera crew rolls past?
If they don’t put one up their friends may think they are a secret Tory
In Woking there are loads of LibDem banners. I’ve not seen one single Conservative one. And yet, this is a Cons seat. Jonathan Lord had a majority of nearly 10,000 last time.
Although this is going to be a LibDem gain, those 50% who voted Cons last time cannot have ALL given up (can they?!).
So, to state the obvious, there aren’t just shy tories out there, but there must be ashamed tories.
I’m not suggesting the polls are wrong because presumably you’d fess up to a pollster, wouldn’t you? But there must be a fair number of people who are going to vote Conservative who wouldn’t dare admit it this time.
Or have I got that wrong?
Haven't you noticed that 99% of Tories haven't been putting up election posters for about 20 years?
Not really, Andy. We normally see a fair smattering of tory ones in Woking. But this time? Absolutely zilch. It’s quite remarkable.
Hence why I remarked on it
There's a load of Labour posters on Delancey St
This is Skyr Toolmakersson's own constituency, he is going to get a majority of 982,047
I can't get my head around the mentality of someone who puts up a Labour poster in that context. Are they perhaps rich nervous Brexity ex-Tories working in the City (we have a few on Delancey) or more like Germans in Nuremburg putting up swastikas as Leni Reifenstahl's camera crew rolls past?
Comments
https://x.com/alexwickham/status/1803064545776124024
I'd like regional polling but I can't get any loving.
https://x.com/theawayfans/status/1803081881652519262
There was a huge fail in the Netherlands game where loads of the Dutch fans were in the opposition end.
While I understand the reasoning behind @leon's forecasting of Faragism triumphant, I rather suspect that most surviving Tory MPs and members will want a leader who is competent and a unifier. And they won't be all that sympathetic to someone who tried to kill the party.
The Unknown Stuntman seems to be having a quiet week this week. Has he run out of energy?
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/
The bigger impact could be if it changes Trump's behaviour.
He seems an unreconstructed Thatcherite in his desire for lower taxes but the Reform manifesto, to this observer, betrays the paradox which cuts through their Party. The leadership want lower personal taxes, spending cuts and are pro-business, indeed they would fit well into most incarnations of the Conservative Party.
The Reform membership and voter base are somewhere else - they want spending and plenty of it but they want it spent on them and signed up happily to the Johnsonian Levelling Up agenda and the pledges made to the north and midlands that they would see the kind of levels of local spending seen in London and the south.
The pandemic put paid to that - the enormous levels of borrowing meant projects like HS2 were aborted. Labour neglected the North, the Conservatives betrayed the North - Reform keeps the flag of Johnsonian levelling up alive and that's why they do so well in the WWC areas.
Looking further ahead, the options are either a Reform-style party or a Wagenknecht-style party. I could see a party akin to the latter existing in Britain in 10-20 years along with a strongly environmentalist, culturally liberal and economically conservative party as a third force. The latter wouldn't be Green in the conventional sense but would advocate technological innvovation to mitigate the environmental impacts of climate change while maintaining an internationalist outlook.
Politics adapts to the changing world - the 20th century notions of "left" and "right" are obsolete - the challenges of the 21st century cut across traditional demarcations.
I suspect the sentence Trump receives and the bounces each party receives from their conventions will move the polls more before Labour Day in early September and the real final stretch of the campaign
Having 20k to put in savings is really quite a lot.
And met a 93 year old life long Tory voter who told me that although he worried Lab don't have enough business people in the party, he'd vote Lab this time as Tories have messed everything up.
He said I couldn't count on his vote in five years time with a wink.
'Wanting to overturn a democratic vote' is clearly designed to have Trumpian overtones. But that is not what is said in the article. All that says is that some MPs will leave the party if they don't like the direction it is pursuing
This seems perfectly reasonable to me and it us something MPs have done on a regular basis since Parliamentary democracy was born.
That is not 'wanting to overturn a democratic vote' at all, anymore than it was when TSE refused to support Truss.
And if Farage on his own can provide a functioning opposition, so can the Greens - especially if there are two of them.
The only thing I can say about the battle for Vovchansk — that’s only the beginning.
I think we have here a new «record» — 13 guided bombs (KAB) for one hour.
It’s hard for them right now to stop our advance and they are deploying new forces. About that and more below..
https://x.com/OSINTua/status/1803089127388184736
In any merger, however successful, there is always some short-term loss, no matter what the long-term gains.
You cannot just add the two percentages together. It's nonsense. You may, with luck, retain 80% of the support of the two original parties, but more likely the wastage would be greater.
There is nothing more to him than that.
Maybe they still will. Maybe the constant tax attack will stick. Time is running out though.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=PxA-IfRifgE
Can he ever get anything right on this campaign?
Weirdly, the only thing they share is a detestation of Armenians
In Woking there are loads of LibDem banners. I’ve not seen one single Conservative one. And yet, this is a Cons seat. Jonathan Lord had a majority of nearly 10,000 last time.
Although this is going to be a LibDem gain, those 50% who voted Cons last time cannot have ALL given up (can they?!).
So, to state the obvious, there aren’t just shy tories out there, but there must be ashamed tories.
I’m not suggesting the polls are wrong because presumably you’d fess up to a pollster, wouldn’t you? But there must be a fair number of people who are going to vote Conservative who wouldn’t dare admit it this time.
Or have I got that wrong?
Whatever else Sunak does or dosent know, he has a fair idea how international finance works and when the balloon is likely to go up and has gone to the King taken his parachute and jumped out quick.
Andy Murray is in action at Queens v Alexei Popryin. Currently 2-2 in the first set.
Trump's conviction did not move the dial at all.
Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona seem almost certain gains. That leaves him needing one of Pennsulvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, which are toss ups.
Since 2000 the party whose nominee's convention is last has led most polls on Labour Day (the exception being 2020 but that was just online talks really, neither party had a proper convention due to Covid).
The debates too may move a few voters
There could well be a silent tory vote of some level, yes, not very much though imo
Looks like no YG/Sky tonight
Hence why I remarked on it
I'm going to be mightily annoyed if that gets penalised, as I intend to become 'economically inactive' soon.
Surely Labour won't de-ISA savings though? I can see that they might lower the limit.
Farmers in fields who back the Tories do it, few other Tories do (plus they don't want a brick through the window)
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/18/labour-landslide-projected-tory-seats-conservatives-general-election?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Lab 453
Con 115
LibDem 38
SNP 15
Ref 3
Greens 3
Labour has an implied vote share of 43%, with Rishi Sunak’s Tories on 25%, Reform UK on 12%, the Lib Dems on 10%, the Greens on 6%, the SNP on 3% and Plaid Cymru on 1%.
IPSOS Sample 20,000 people 7-12 June
What ever else Farage is or isn't he dosent advocate violence to get his way politically and run paramilitary organisations to firm up his support and and intimidate opponents
Howecer the three main parties have an unfortunate record, even in recent decades, when it comes to appeasing parties in the UK with Westminster seats who did.
This is Skyr Toolmakersson's own constituency, he is going to get a majority of 982,047
I can't get my head around the mentality of someone who puts up a Labour poster in that context. Are they perhaps rich nervous Brexity ex-Tories working in the City (we have a few on Delancey) or more like Germans in Nuremburg putting up swastikas as Leni Reifenstahl's camera crew rolls past?
Top 5 Candidates to Be Mooned?
Top 5 Candidates to be given the raspberry?
Suggests a Labour landslide but the Sunak Tories holding up better in the bluewall now than the redwall. It has Hunt holding Godalming and Ash for example by a narrow margin over the LDs
Also on that Betfair Exchange market, Doug Burgum seems misplaced as favourite, surely ?
Ipsos estimates Labour could win 453 seats and Tories 115, giving Labour 256 majority & inflicting Tories’ worst ever defeat.
Lib Dems 38/ SNP 15/ Greens 3/ Reform UK 3.
Nigel Farage on track to take Clacton while Jeremy Corbyn predicted to lose to Labour in Islington North.