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Why do some right wing Tory MPs want to overturn a democratic vote? – politicalbetting.com
Why do some right wing Tory MPs want to overturn a democratic vote? – politicalbetting.com
EXC: A 'significant' number of Tory MPs will join Reform after the election if they don't get their preferred candidate in the final 2 for the next Tory leadership contest pic.twitter.com/196vN7D2xj
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With this platform, I would like to implore the Gods to please allow @CorrectHorseBattery back.
For the first thing, that would require there to be a significant number of Tory MPs after the election.
if the Tories and Reform remain fractured and trying to outdo each other on an extreme right wing agenda then Labour will easily win a second term.
Not on a second term, Labour will almost definitely easily win a second term either way, but on the implication of it being bad for the Tories for there to be a fracture between Tories and Reform.
Worst possible news is if that "fracture" is "healed" and the Tories and Reform merge. Best news is if Reform-leading extremists bugger off and leave the Tories and the Tories can focus on regaining the centre-ground and becoming a big tent once more.
Just as the Corbynites fracturing and heading to the Greens was good news for Labour.
But part of the PB stable, for sure
https://xkcd.com/936/
Mind you, I wouldn't want to make any assumptions about the normality of the Con MPs, although even if not a bell curve there are likely to be bell-ends.
Tory "Candidates" threatening all sorts after they are elected in July.
Flippin' hilarious.
Vast numbers of them will just be losers and will have no say in the leadership other than as an ordinary member of the party.
Only party pledging more housing and reform of our planning system. Though they're not remotely going far enough for me, they at least are grasping what the problem is.
Still don't like Labour economics and I expect the party will do many things I dislike, but so does what I still consider to be own party in the Tories so I'm not voting for them this year.
He was already still pro-Russia and pro-Putin and anti-West before then.
And Russia/Putin didn't only become a problem in 2022. Or with Salisbury either.
1. The Cons scrape in ahead of the LibDems as official opposition
2. They have a fight over who the new leader is
3. Split
4. End up third and fourth (or fourth and fifth?) largest parties in the Commons.
My hypothesis is that the anti-Labour vote is more efficient if you take the Tory party out of the equation.
The awkward bit is that many things will still be impossible because (for example) a big BACS transaction will require a secondary authorization that may not be possible in branch
When reform have 1000s of councilors I will accept your argument but until then reform won’t be replacing the Tory party anywhere
Perhaps 80+ and even then my 94-yr old mother has two banking apps on her phone and hasn't needed to go to a branch in years.
Gervase de Wilde, representing Mr Vine, said: “Mr Barton had many options for engaging in the abuse of Mr Vine but he chose the one toxic word to do so, which means paedophile.
The demographic of people going into branches to get things done are old people going in to perform transactions that as a bank you don’t want employees doing
BBC News - Who will be the first to return election result?
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c100207p326o
tl;dr
Newcastle not expected to contesting quite so hard as financial and boundary changes not helpful to them.
Sunderland still in the game
but Ashington & Blyth a decent chance of declaring first, Northumbs having poached Sunderland's fast count guru, and only nobbled last time by a recount
Number crunchers, make sure Ashington is on your expected results lists.
My father-in-law (70) still refuses to use a bank card. There will be fewer refuseniks as time goes on, though. Even in rural Ireland.
Labour: 43% (+1)
Conservative: 21% (-3)
Reform UK: 16% (+1)
Liberal Democrats: 10% (+1)
Green: 5% (-)
Fieldwork conducted 14–17 June
2,604 respondents (GB)
They are so utterly fucked 42 polls since a like for like increase
https://x.com/focaldataHQ/status/1803059872390353022?s=19
Although without interest and somewhat devalued given population inflation
Four members of the UK's richest family are on trial in Switzerland amid allegations they spent more money caring for their dog than their servants. The Hinduja family, worth an estimated £37bn ($47bn), is accused of exploitation and human trafficking.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cm55gzvv1dro
That decryption may fit several people, however.
In all seriousness I don't think it the most likely scenario, but I think it's possible.
I think it more likely that if the Tories are sub 100 seats that a leadership candidate advocating merger with Reform could emerge, off the threat of MPs jumping ship.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c722gne7qngo
I suspect the mistake you made their was buying IBM's shitty technology.
To be fair, I remember in 1997 pre-election analysis trying to work out if a post-election Conservative rump would be more or less Eurosceptic (remember that?)
It was broadly assumed Portillo would be a leadership contender as would Clarke and it seems possible they would be the two runners but with Portillo losing in Enfield Southgate, Hague, Howard, Redwood and Lilley all joined the fight which ended with the notorious Clarke-Redwood Pact and Hague emerging as the new young hope for the stern, unbending Tories.
I don't think we're anythere near establishing the runners and riders - so much depends, as I often say at my favourite steakhouse, on the size of the rump and how well cooked it is (that's an analogy which started well but declined quickly).
(I am re-assessing my mental models of economic vulnerability to trade/industrial/technological step changes.)
I would not be too complacent if I was Starmer though in an age where Trump and even Le Pen lead many polls, if the economy is poor midterm of a Labour government and immigration numbers remain high anything could happen at the next general election whoever the Conservative leader is. Reform have also showed themselves capable of picking up ex Labour working class Leave voters as much as Tory rightwingers
There have been eight polls since the YouGov crossover poll. Labour have been up in three, down in three, unchanged in two. The Tories have been down in six and unchanged in two.
Sir Keir Starmer has opened the door to tax rises for millions of Britons by defining a working person as someone who relies on public services and doesn’t have savings.
The Labour leader has repeatedly ruled out putting up taxes on what he calls “working people” who he says have borne the brunt of the cost of living crisis.
Asked what he meant by the term, he said it refers to “people who earn their living, rely on our services and don’t really have the ability to write a cheque when they get into trouble”.
His definition means millions of Britons including pensioners, savers, and those who use private services like healthcare may not be covered by his tax rise pledge.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/18/starmer-leaves-door-open-to-tax-rises-for-millions/
Everybody else: Tories are fucked.
Brilliant HYUFD, truly indefatigable.
There's a CGT increase about!
* Edit: I've seen his reply now and it appears he does.
The wheel turns - the problem your party has is IF it is neither Government nor official Opposition it will be in a place where it has never been and people will justifiably ask what is the point of the Conservative Party?
I find it hard to even contemplate this having been in politics for over 40 years but the possibility of a Liberal Democrat as LOTO is now credible. There was much talk of re-alignment in the heady days of the Alliance but it was always about the Alliance replacing Labour and challenging the Conservatives - no one saw the opposite scenario and yet it is feasible if still unlikely.
I suspect both Davey and Farage will make strong appeals to the remaining Conservatives both at Westminster and locally to come across. The Conservatives risk being emasculated from two sides.
Who will be left, Ben Houchen, Tim Oliver ?
2. 5% ahead, but in the previous Focaldata poll that 5% was 9%. The trend is not your friend.
To confuse those two demographics before an election is a very dangerous move. No matter your lead in the polls.
At this stage it looks like only Theresa May stands between Rishi Sunak and the worst election campaign in history.