What's happened to Labour's left? It seems that their bubble was popped and they just dissipated to the winds. Of course nobody imagines that's true, but quite what are they up to?
I don't believe for a moment that Starmer has convinced them to be nice, and clearly 'rational' was never on the agenda. So the riddle is a big one - where are they?
A very good question, and a branch of the question : What is happening on the left.
A possible is this: They have reconciled themselves to the reality that there is no choice but for Labour, regrettably, to win an election under social democrat colours. They will gain nothing by interfering or trying to lose it. The cause is for now lost. The 'moderates' have the numbers and the moment. This has happened before.
A chance will come to recover, though it will be harder. Never again will those in Labour who actually want power and government give the sort of chance they gave to Corbyn. But if you are Marxist and greenish you are likely to believe that the next government will bring the critical national crisis a little closer by the inexorable contradictions of capitalism because we are closer to realising that no available solutions can work. In non Marxist language, anyone can see that unstoppable forces are meeting immovable objects. (Eg Net Zero meets Global Middle Class; Debt Repayment meets Taxpayer Demands).
They are wrong. But not entirely so. Like the election the next few years will be fraught with interest. And like the poor, the left are always with us.
One tax change that has not been ruled out by Labour is reform of pension tax relief.
The general suggestion is that tax relief on higher rate tax be ended and it limited to essentially a credit of 20% against tax liability or even 25% so that lower paid workers get a boost.
There is something quite seismic about this that buy to let landlords are well aware of. Such a change would end the tax exempt status of pensions.
Sure, a tax credit of 20% against tax on pension contributions would on the face of it mean anyone on basic rate tax paid no more, but it dosent.
Currently Pension contributions are not taxable income. So they don't count towards means testing on Universal Credit, they don't tip you over the higher rate tax threshold, they don't count towards the student loan repayment threshold, or parental means test, they don't count towards tipping you over the £100k childcare payment limit etc.
Change it to a 20% credit and every penny of those pension contributions becomes taxable income.
So, for example, someone earning £55k and paying £6k pension is now earning £56k taxable income. So they get a 20% credit on that £6k but as it is in the 40% band they still pay 20% tax on it (£1,200) and lose the marriage allowance.
It is worse than that though. That £5k is probably matched by an employer £5k contribution, if that is now taxable income with a 20% credit then he pays another £1,200 tax for the benefit in kind from his employer.
Plus he has two children. His income is now £62,000, so 10% of the families child benefit is clawed back.
It is a similar story for the family on £33,000 who pay £3,000 towards pension and get £3,000 matching payment from employer. Both are "refunded" by the new 20% tax credit but the taxable income has gone up from £30k to £36k.
So income £6k higher for Universal Credit means test. Universal credit taper rate is 55%. So £3,300 hit.
Gets worse though. He has a student loan. So 9% repayments on that £6,000 too. Another £540 gone.
But that is all rather like drones in Wales. Say something very narrowly specific and complain that Labour haven't excluded that narrowly specific thing. Like the mythical drones in Wales supposedly now leering into non-innocent Tories' gardens to assess the improvements they have carefully failed to report to the valuation bureau.
Is there any evidence they have this in mind? At all? As| opposed to being a general suggestion in the Tory media?
Imagine you get tax relief at 45% or 40% on all your pension contributions. You build a pot of £1m which generates a £50k annuity. Now, you only pay 20% on the way out. Plus, you got to "borrow" the tax and get compounding returns for decades.
Practically, getting rid of 45% tax relief would be a first step. Then reducing 40% to 30%. Salami slicing. Avoids increasing incime tax rates.
Governments should encourage pension saving to prevent state-reliance in old age. But it might not be in the interest of government to make pensioners rich.
This tory is relaxed about it. But then, this tory doesn't earn enough to pay higher rate tax.
It'll only be 20% coming out of the pension if the pensioner stays below whatever the 20% tax rate (if such it is) at the time. There's no particular reason to think that the pension tax treatment will be anything (specifically) by the time I'm taking my pension, in the unlikely event my disgraceful lifestyle lets me live that long. Hopefully similar to today's but who knows.
The point is to be a tax free untouchable savings vehicle. If you don't want it to be so then that's absolutely fine as a political choice (although I disagree). But don't get today's pensions savings policy mixed up with the future's pension taking policy cause you've no idea what that'll be.
Of course, nothing is guaranteed - and indeed pensioners currently get a larger 0% chunk, I think? But it's hard to imagine any future government charging higher rates on pensioners than employees.
Pensioners getting a larger allowance for income tax? Really? Only if above 85 or whatever it is (and of course the much-touted Sunakian but relatively small change in allowance to match basic state pension which is not yet implemented, I think). (Though NI presently has the same effect, of course.)
Sorry to hear this. Incidentally I only recently discovered that Sunchyme is based on a mid-80s hit called Life In A Northern Town by The Dream Academy.
While I am very familiar with the excellent Life In A Northern Town, I've never heard of Sunchyme.
I know today has been St Nigel's Day, but has anyone seen or heard from Rishi?
The Tories seem to have gone from President Hyperactive Rishi to hiding him away. No idea why.
I think after the D-Day cock up, Rishi has realized he's just not up to it and given up.
Shame he didn't realize his limitations a couple of years ago...
Absolutely no 'World Statesman' G7, Ukraine summit boost in todays polls. Nothing is boosting them. Nothing at all. Unless a change begins immediately I think they are in a terminal death spiral
200 Tory seats seems a very very long way off now! 100 in the balance I'd say. They desperately need to start bagging 'stop the landslide' votes but I just don't see it happening. They are just toxic
Are you sure? I still think 150 to 200 plausible.
I don't see where the votes come from. For 150 to 200 I'd think they need 27% minimum, if it were one or two pollsters having them under 20 then perhaps but it's 5 pollsters with the bulk of the rest very low 20s. If their VI starts to pick up ill reassess but I see zero, nada, zilch sign anyone is coming back to them......
The only plausible way I can see for Con to get 150-200 seats is for many dyed-in-the-woolie Tories who are currently saying they are going to vote Reform to go back to Con in the privacy of the polling booth.
I don't see the opinion polls shifting between now and polling day.
One tax change that has not been ruled out by Labour is reform of pension tax relief.
The general suggestion is that tax relief on higher rate tax be ended and it limited to essentially a credit of 20% against tax liability or even 25% so that lower paid workers get a boost.
There is something quite seismic about this that buy to let landlords are well aware of. Such a change would end the tax exempt status of pensions.
Sure, a tax credit of 20% against tax on pension contributions would on the face of it mean anyone on basic rate tax paid no more, but it dosent.
Currently Pension contributions are not taxable income. So they don't count towards means testing on Universal Credit, they don't tip you over the higher rate tax threshold, they don't count towards the student loan repayment threshold, or parental means test, they don't count towards tipping you over the £100k childcare payment limit etc.
Change it to a 20% credit and every penny of those pension contributions becomes taxable income.
So, for example, someone earning £55k and paying £6k pension is now earning £56k taxable income. So they get a 20% credit on that £6k but as it is in the 40% band they still pay 20% tax on it (£1,200) and lose the marriage allowance.
It is worse than that though. That £5k is probably matched by an employer £5k contribution, if that is now taxable income with a 20% credit then he pays another £1,200 tax for the benefit in kind from his employer.
Plus he has two children. His income is now £62,000, so 10% of the families child benefit is clawed back.
It is a similar story for the family on £33,000 who pay £3,000 towards pension and get £3,000 matching payment from employer. Both are "refunded" by the new 20% tax credit but the taxable income has gone up from £30k to £36k.
So income £6k higher for Universal Credit means test. Universal credit taper rate is 55%. So £3,300 hit.
Gets worse though. He has a student loan. So 9% repayments on that £6,000 too. Another £540 gone.
But that is all rather like drones in Wales. Say something very narrowly specific and complain that Labour haven't excluded that narrowly specific thing. Like the mythical drones in Wales supposedly now leering into non-innocent Tories' gardens to assess the improvements they have carefully failed to report to the valuation bureau.
Is there any evidence they have this in mind? At all? As| opposed to being a general suggestion in the Tory media?
Imagine you get tax relief at 45% or 40% on all your pension contributions. You build a pot of £1m which generates a £50k annuity. Now, you only pay 20% on the way out. Plus, you got to "borrow" the tax and get compounding returns for decades.
Practically, getting rid of 45% tax relief would be a first step. Then reducing 40% to 30%. Salami slicing. Avoids increasing incime tax rates.
Governments should encourage pension saving to prevent state-reliance in old age. But it might not be in the interest of government to make pensioners rich.
This tory is relaxed about it. But then, this tory doesn't earn enough to pay higher rate tax.
It'll only be 20% coming out of the pension if the pensioner stays below whatever the 20% tax rate (if such it is) at the time. There's no particular reason to think that the pension tax treatment will be anything (specifically) by the time I'm taking my pension, in the unlikely event my disgraceful lifestyle lets me live that long. Hopefully similar to today's but who knows.
The point is to be a tax free untouchable savings vehicle. If you don't want it to be so then that's absolutely fine as a political choice (although I disagree). But don't get today's pensions savings policy mixed up with the future's pension taking policy cause you've no idea what that'll be.
Of course, nothing is guaranteed - and indeed pensioners currently get a larger 0% chunk, I think? But it's hard to imagine any future government charging higher rates on pensioners than employees.
Pensioners getting a larger allowance for income tax? Really? Only if above 85 or whatever it is (and of course the much-touted Sunakian but relatively small change in allowance to match basic state pension which is not yet implemented, I think). (Though NI presently has the same effect, of course.)
I looked it up and it turns out I hallucinated that...
200 Tory seats seems a very very long way off now! 100 in the balance I'd say. They desperately need to start bagging 'stop the landslide' votes but I just don't see it happening. They are just toxic
Are you sure? I still think 150 to 200 plausible.
Yeah, they could easily still get that many at the last minute imo.
One tax change that has not been ruled out by Labour is reform of pension tax relief.
The general suggestion is that tax relief on higher rate tax be ended and it limited to essentially a credit of 20% against tax liability or even 25% so that lower paid workers get a boost.
There is something quite seismic about this that buy to let landlords are well aware of. Such a change would end the tax exempt status of pensions.
Sure, a tax credit of 20% against tax on pension contributions would on the face of it mean anyone on basic rate tax paid no more, but it dosent.
Currently Pension contributions are not taxable income. So they don't count towards means testing on Universal Credit, they don't tip you over the higher rate tax threshold, they don't count towards the student loan repayment threshold, or parental means test, they don't count towards tipping you over the £100k childcare payment limit etc.
Change it to a 20% credit and every penny of those pension contributions becomes taxable income.
So, for example, someone earning £55k and paying £6k pension is now earning £56k taxable income. So they get a 20% credit on that £6k but as it is in the 40% band they still pay 20% tax on it (£1,200) and lose the marriage allowance.
It is worse than that though. That £5k is probably matched by an employer £5k contribution, if that is now taxable income with a 20% credit then he pays another £1,200 tax for the benefit in kind from his employer.
Plus he has two children. His income is now £62,000, so 10% of the families child benefit is clawed back.
It is a similar story for the family on £33,000 who pay £3,000 towards pension and get £3,000 matching payment from employer. Both are "refunded" by the new 20% tax credit but the taxable income has gone up from £30k to £36k.
So income £6k higher for Universal Credit means test. Universal credit taper rate is 55%. So £3,300 hit.
Gets worse though. He has a student loan. So 9% repayments on that £6,000 too. Another £540 gone.
So the end of salary sacrifice for pension contributions ?
People on the right have been talking about this for the past few weeks as if it's a certainty, but it's never been mentioned within Labour circles as far as I can see, certainly not since Starmer bedded in as leader.
Has anyone actually got any form of a source for this, or is it just doomcasting?
It's a bit like the CGT talk the other day, or CGT on main residence, part paranoia and part mischief.
Yes. For what it’s worth, I think Labour will raise taxes. Because they’ll have to. I suspect that will be CGT (not on first houses though) and I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see income tax go up for higher earners (exactly how high TBC).
But a lot of this stuff reads like pie in the sky doom-mongering and I see little evidence of it being attractive to an incoming government. Disincentivising pension saving and lumbering homeowners with a sales tax are going to be fundamentally unpopular to huge chunks of the electorate. I just can’t see it.
Taxing someone when they sell a house, and have a huge dollop of cash landing in their lap, makes more sense than taxing someone when they buy a house, and need to borrow money to pay the tax.
Sure, if you’ve got plenty of equity in your house. What if you don’t?
Any capital gain is all equity. So the seller can pay tax out of it.
One tax change that has not been ruled out by Labour is reform of pension tax relief.
The general suggestion is that tax relief on higher rate tax be ended and it limited to essentially a credit of 20% against tax liability or even 25% so that lower paid workers get a boost.
There is something quite seismic about this that buy to let landlords are well aware of. Such a change would end the tax exempt status of pensions.
Sure, a tax credit of 20% against tax on pension contributions would on the face of it mean anyone on basic rate tax paid no more, but it dosent.
Currently Pension contributions are not taxable income. So they don't count towards means testing on Universal Credit, they don't tip you over the higher rate tax threshold, they don't count towards the student loan repayment threshold, or parental means test, they don't count towards tipping you over the £100k childcare payment limit etc.
Change it to a 20% credit and every penny of those pension contributions becomes taxable income.
So, for example, someone earning £55k and paying £6k pension is now earning £56k taxable income. So they get a 20% credit on that £6k but as it is in the 40% band they still pay 20% tax on it (£1,200) and lose the marriage allowance.
It is worse than that though. That £5k is probably matched by an employer £5k contribution, if that is now taxable income with a 20% credit then he pays another £1,200 tax for the benefit in kind from his employer.
Plus he has two children. His income is now £62,000, so 10% of the families child benefit is clawed back.
It is a similar story for the family on £33,000 who pay £3,000 towards pension and get £3,000 matching payment from employer. Both are "refunded" by the new 20% tax credit but the taxable income has gone up from £30k to £36k.
So income £6k higher for Universal Credit means test. Universal credit taper rate is 55%. So £3,300 hit.
Gets worse though. He has a student loan. So 9% repayments on that £6,000 too. Another £540 gone.
So the end of salary sacrifice for pension contributions ?
People on the right have been talking about this for the past few weeks as if it's a certainty, but it's never been mentioned within Labour circles as far as I can see, certainly not since Starmer bedded in as leader.
Has anyone actually got any form of a source for this, or is it just doomcasting?
It's a bit like the CGT talk the other day, or CGT on main residence, part paranoia and part mischief.
Yes. For what it’s worth, I think Labour will raise taxes. Because they’ll have to. I suspect that will be CGT (not on first houses though) and I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see income tax go up for higher earners (exactly how high TBC).
But a lot of this stuff reads like pie in the sky doom-mongering and I see little evidence of it being attractive to an incoming government. Disincentivising pension saving and lumbering homeowners with a sales tax are going to be fundamentally unpopular to huge chunks of the electorate. I just can’t see it.
Taxing someone when they sell a house, and have a huge dollop of cash landing in their lap, makes more sense than taxing someone when they buy a house, and need to borrow money to pay the tax.
Sure, if you’ve got plenty of equity in your house. What if you don’t?
Sorry to hear this. Incidentally I only recently discovered that Sunchyme is based on a mid-80s hit called Life In A Northern Town by The Dream Academy.
While I am very familiar with the excellent Life In A Northern Town, I've never heard of Sunchyme.
Sorry to hear this. Incidentally I only recently discovered that Sunchyme is based on a mid-80s hit called Life In A Northern Town by The Dream Academy.
Based on? Having looked at Utube, it *is* Life in a Northern Town but with that phrase redacted.
Judging by the Video the Northern Town is Batley and the Ladies Guild are performing.
200 Tory seats seems a very very long way off now! 100 in the balance I'd say. They desperately need to start bagging 'stop the landslide' votes but I just don't see it happening. They are just toxic
Are you sure? I still think 150 to 200 plausible.
200 seats means only 170 losses, so holding places like Swindon North (falls on a 14% swing)
150 seats means only 220 losses, so holding places like Maidenhead (falls on a 17% swing)
The current wikiworm average (limitations apply) is C22L42, which is about a 16% swing but ignores tactical winding.
Write it down, and it looks bonkers, doesn't it? But electoral reality very likely is bonkers.
200 Tory seats seems a very very long way off now! 100 in the balance I'd say. They desperately need to start bagging 'stop the landslide' votes but I just don't see it happening. They are just toxic
Are you sure? I still think 150 to 200 plausible.
I don't see where the votes come from. For 150 to 200 I'd think they need 27% minimum, if it were one or two pollsters having them under 20 then perhaps but it's 5 pollsters with the bulk of the rest very low 20s. If their VI starts to pick up ill reassess but I see zero, nada, zilch sign anyone is coming back to them......
The only plausible way I can see for Con to get 150-200 seats is for many dyed-in-the-woolie Tories who are currently saying they are going to vote Reform to go back to Con in the privacy of the polling booth.
I don't see the opinion polls shifting between now and polling day.
Yep they need an active switch, any Reform 'stay at home decline' boosts the rest by as much too. Or they need there to be a very heavy shy Tory miss in the polling
Some constituency polling would be good for a steer rn
One tax change that has not been ruled out by Labour is reform of pension tax relief.
The general suggestion is that tax relief on higher rate tax be ended and it limited to essentially a credit of 20% against tax liability or even 25% so that lower paid workers get a boost.
There is something quite seismic about this that buy to let landlords are well aware of. Such a change would end the tax exempt status of pensions.
Sure, a tax credit of 20% against tax on pension contributions would on the face of it mean anyone on basic rate tax paid no more, but it dosent.
Currently Pension contributions are not taxable income. So they don't count towards means testing on Universal Credit, they don't tip you over the higher rate tax threshold, they don't count towards the student loan repayment threshold, or parental means test, they don't count towards tipping you over the £100k childcare payment limit etc.
Change it to a 20% credit and every penny of those pension contributions becomes taxable income.
So, for example, someone earning £55k and paying £6k pension is now earning £56k taxable income. So they get a 20% credit on that £6k but as it is in the 40% band they still pay 20% tax on it (£1,200) and lose the marriage allowance.
It is worse than that though. That £5k is probably matched by an employer £5k contribution, if that is now taxable income with a 20% credit then he pays another £1,200 tax for the benefit in kind from his employer.
Plus he has two children. His income is now £62,000, so 10% of the families child benefit is clawed back.
It is a similar story for the family on £33,000 who pay £3,000 towards pension and get £3,000 matching payment from employer. Both are "refunded" by the new 20% tax credit but the taxable income has gone up from £30k to £36k.
So income £6k higher for Universal Credit means test. Universal credit taper rate is 55%. So £3,300 hit.
Gets worse though. He has a student loan. So 9% repayments on that £6,000 too. Another £540 gone.
So the end of salary sacrifice for pension contributions ?
People on the right have been talking about this for the past few weeks as if it's a certainty, but it's never been mentioned within Labour circles as far as I can see, certainly not since Starmer bedded in as leader.
Has anyone actually got any form of a source for this, or is it just doomcasting?
It's a bit like the CGT talk the other day, or CGT on main residence, part paranoia and part mischief.
Yes. For what it’s worth, I think Labour will raise taxes. Because they’ll have to. I suspect that will be CGT (not on first houses though) and I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see income tax go up for higher earners (exactly how high TBC).
But a lot of this stuff reads like pie in the sky doom-mongering and I see little evidence of it being attractive to an incoming government. Disincentivising pension saving and lumbering homeowners with a sales tax are going to be fundamentally unpopular to huge chunks of the electorate. I just can’t see it.
Taxing someone when they sell a house, and have a huge dollop of cash landing in their lap, makes more sense than taxing someone when they buy a house, and need to borrow money to pay the tax.
Sure, if you’ve got plenty of equity in your house. What if you don’t?
Tax refund?
A nice big fiscal transfer to homeowners in Northern Ireland, where house prices are still below 2007-08 levels...
Not politics but our son has just confirmed he is Llandudno latest Inshore Lifeboat helm being his first command position just under 3 years since he joined the RNLI
Our family with all its seafaring connections are very proud tonight
Musings. I expect the Tories to poll much better than predicted. They usually do. However. There is no discernable sign of this. They've been heading inexorably down since the Election was called. I'm struggling to believe any of the seat numbers. Frankly, under 150 seems inconceivable. And yet I am left to reflect that under 200 seemed similar a few weeks ago. I believe my competition prediction was Labour majority of 70. More significantly, perhaps, there were a handful of people on NOM when the election was called, and a couple for Tory largest Party or even majority. Are there any now?
Sorry to hear this. Incidentally I only recently discovered that Sunchyme is based on a mid-80s hit called Life In A Northern Town by The Dream Academy.
While I am very familiar with the excellent Life In A Northern Town, I've never heard of Sunchyme.
Must be an age thing.
The finest African music inspired folk song there is
I know today has been St Nigel's Day, but has anyone seen or heard from Rishi?
The Tories seem to have gone from President Hyperactive Rishi to hiding him away. No idea why.
I think after the D-Day cock up, Rishi has realized he's just not up to it and given up.
Shame he didn't realize his limitations a couple of years ago...
Probably, and a shame most of the Labour front bench don't realise theirs too, but we will, as a country, be forced to watch as a bunch of lightweight no-hopers who would struggle to get a job in lower middle management fuck up the country in a way that that the dreaded Tories haven't even come close to even in the worst days of Lizzie Lettuce.
With a huge majority, Starmer can just ignore the leftmost cohort of Labour MPs. They will be totally impotent and irrelevant. They rebel? Government wins the division anyway.
Some fascinating maneuvers today Putin appoints his niece and billionairess Anna Tsivileva as Deputy Defence Minister. Her husband is Minister of Energy.
Totally agree @Cyclefree! Well said! The extremist trans activists that threaten those who don’t agree with them, need to be treated under the law in the same way that other people that use illegally threatening behaviour are treated. Threaten someone with a baseball bat - go to jail. Threaten to kill someone that disagrees with you regarding trans rights - no problem. It’s just wrong!
I know today has been St Nigel's Day, but has anyone seen or heard from Rishi?
The Tories seem to have gone from President Hyperactive Rishi to hiding him away. No idea why.
I think after the D-Day cock up, Rishi has realized he's just not up to it and given up.
Shame he didn't realize his limitations a couple of years ago...
Probably, and a shame most of the Labour front bench don't realise theirs too, but we will, as a country, be forced to watch as a bunch of lightweight no-hopers who would struggle to get a job in lower middle management fuck up the country in a way that that the dreaded Tories haven't even come close to even in the worst days of Lizzie Lettuce.
An Italian investment firm has made a profit of more than £50 million in the first year since George Osborne, the former chancellor, became its chairman.
Lingotto Investment Management, which is owned by the Agnelli family but is based in London, reported a profit of £53.5 million in the year to the end of December, a sharp increase on the £16.3 million it made in 2022.
Not politics but our son has just confirmed he is Llandudno latest Inshore Lifeboat helm being his first command position just under 3 years since he joined the RNLI
Our family with all its seafaring connections are very proud tonight
Is it time for Lord Cameron take over from Rishi for the rest of the campaign?
Impractical, but it does beg the question as to why Cameron wasn't chosen for the multi-candidates' debates, rather than the spectacularly hopeless Penny Mordaunt.
A financial crisis at one of Britain’s most heavily indebted local authorities has deepened after an an influential ratings agency removed its credit rating.
Moody’s said it was withdrawing the credit rating of Warrington borough council because the council could not show that successive annual accounts were signed off by external auditors.
The ratings agency cited a backlog in the publication of audited accounts that is affecting local authorities across England. Warrington has been in dispute with its auditors, Grant Thornton, amid debts of close to £2 billion.
Last month, a government inspector was appointed to look into whether Warrington was complying with a legal requirement to secure “best value” from its investments. The Labour-run authority’s audited annual accounts are years overdue.
The council has reportedly failed to pass key financial information to Grant Thornton, harming its ability to review its dealings. Auditors only recently finished reviewing its accounts for the year to April 2019 and they have called its borrowings “not affordable, prudent or sustainable”.
One tax change that has not been ruled out by Labour is reform of pension tax relief.
The general suggestion is that tax relief on higher rate tax be ended and it limited to essentially a credit of 20% against tax liability or even 25% so that lower paid workers get a boost.
There is something quite seismic about this that buy to let landlords are well aware of. Such a change would end the tax exempt status of pensions.
Sure, a tax credit of 20% against tax on pension contributions would on the face of it mean anyone on basic rate tax paid no more, but it dosent.
Currently Pension contributions are not taxable income. So they don't count towards means testing on Universal Credit, they don't tip you over the higher rate tax threshold, they don't count towards the student loan repayment threshold, or parental means test, they don't count towards tipping you over the £100k childcare payment limit etc.
Change it to a 20% credit and every penny of those pension contributions becomes taxable income.
So, for example, someone earning £55k and paying £6k pension is now earning £56k taxable income. So they get a 20% credit on that £6k but as it is in the 40% band they still pay 20% tax on it (£1,200) and lose the marriage allowance.
It is worse than that though. That £5k is probably matched by an employer £5k contribution, if that is now taxable income with a 20% credit then he pays another £1,200 tax for the benefit in kind from his employer.
Plus he has two children. His income is now £62,000, so 10% of the families child benefit is clawed back.
It is a similar story for the family on £33,000 who pay £3,000 towards pension and get £3,000 matching payment from employer. Both are "refunded" by the new 20% tax credit but the taxable income has gone up from £30k to £36k.
So income £6k higher for Universal Credit means test. Universal credit taper rate is 55%. So £3,300 hit.
Gets worse though. He has a student loan. So 9% repayments on that £6,000 too. Another £540 gone.
So the end of salary sacrifice for pension contributions ?
People on the right have been talking about this for the past few weeks as if it's a certainty, but it's never been mentioned within Labour circles as far as I can see, certainly not since Starmer bedded in as leader.
Has anyone actually got any form of a source for this, or is it just doomcasting?
It's a bit like the CGT talk the other day, or CGT on main residence, part paranoia and part mischief.
Yes. For what it’s worth, I think Labour will raise taxes. Because they’ll have to. I suspect that will be CGT (not on first houses though) and I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see income tax go up for higher earners (exactly how high TBC).
But a lot of this stuff reads like pie in the sky doom-mongering and I see little evidence of it being attractive to an incoming government. Disincentivising pension saving and lumbering homeowners with a sales tax are going to be fundamentally unpopular to huge chunks of the electorate. I just can’t see it.
Taxing someone when they sell a house, and have a huge dollop of cash landing in their lap, makes more sense than taxing someone when they buy a house, and need to borrow money to pay the tax.
Sure, if you’ve got plenty of equity in your house. What if you don’t?
Tax refund?
Labour will not tax pension contributions because most of them, and most of their supporters hate the idea of people taking risks to generate wealth, but they as public sector workers are happy to lazily retire as early as possible on gold plated pension schemes guaranteed by the taxpayer.
Musings. I expect the Tories to poll much better than predicted. They usually do. However. There is no discernable sign of this. They've been heading inexorably down since the Election was called. I'm struggling to believe any of the seat numbers. Frankly, under 150 seems inconceivable. And yet I am left to reflect that under 200 seemed similar a few weeks ago. I believe my competition prediction was Labour majority of 70. More significantly, perhaps, there were a handful of people on NOM when the election was called, and a couple for Tory largest Party or even majority. Are there any now?
I was for NOM at the start of the year, and while it is not quite impossible I am glad that I didn't back my judgment with cash to any great extent. I think the chances now of the Tories getting under 60 seats are higher than NOM.
Psephologically interesting throughout and continuing is the massive range of arguable and predicted outcomes. Currently SFAICS Tories are expected to get between about 20 and about 220 seats depending on who you ask. This is strange.
What's happened to Labour's left? It seems that their bubble was popped and they just dissipated to the winds. Of course nobody imagines that's true, but quite what are they up to?
I don't believe for a moment that Starmer has convinced them to be nice, and clearly 'rational' was never on the agenda. So the riddle is a big one - where are they?
A very good question, and a branch of the question : What is happening on the left.
A possible is this: They have reconciled themselves to the reality that there is no choice but for Labour, regrettably, to win an election under social democrat colours. They will gain nothing by interfering or trying to lose it. The cause is for now lost. The 'moderates' have the numbers and the moment. This has happened before.
A chance will come to recover, though it will be harder. Never again will those in Labour who actually want power and government give the sort of chance they gave to Corbyn. But if you are Marxist and greenish you are likely to believe that the next government will bring the critical national crisis a little closer by the inexorable contradictions of capitalism because we are closer to realising that no available solutions can work. In non Marxist language, anyone can see that unstoppable forces are meeting immovable objects. (Eg Net Zero meets Global Middle Class; Debt Repayment meets Taxpayer Demands).
They are wrong. But not entirely so. Like the election the next few years will be fraught with interest. And like the poor, the left are always with us.
If there is a more left candidate with a chance of success, whether Green or Galloway, the left will vote for them. If not, a centrist Labour Party is better than a Tory.
An Italian investment firm has made a profit of more than £50 million in the first year since George Osborne, the former chancellor, became its chairman.
Lingotto Investment Management, which is owned by the Agnelli family but is based in London, reported a profit of £53.5 million in the year to the end of December, a sharp increase on the £16.3 million it made in 2022.
Sorry to hear this. Incidentally I only recently discovered that Sunchyme is based on a mid-80s hit called Life In A Northern Town by The Dream Academy.
While I am very familiar with the excellent Life In A Northern Town, I've never heard of Sunchyme.
Must be an age thing.
The finest African music inspired folk song there is
Low bar if the competition is koom ba yar or however you spell it and the lion sleeps tonight
Musings. I expect the Tories to poll much better than predicted. They usually do. However. There is no discernable sign of this. They've been heading inexorably down since the Election was called. I'm struggling to believe any of the seat numbers. Frankly, under 150 seems inconceivable. And yet I am left to reflect that under 200 seemed similar a few weeks ago. I believe my competition prediction was Labour majority of 70. More significantly, perhaps, there were a handful of people on NOM when the election was called, and a couple for Tory largest Party or even majority. Are there any now?
@Mexicanpete was on here every night telling anyone who would listen that Rishi was going to take the Tories to a 1992-style Tory majority. I presume he is on the 140-1 in a big way and planning his luxury world cruise.
With a huge majority, Starmer can just ignore the leftmost cohort of Labour MPs. They will be totally impotent and irrelevant. They rebel? Government wins the division anyway.
Farage pointed that out several weeks ago in response to "Vote Farage - Get Starmer" claims.
Is it time for Lord Cameron take over from Rishi for the rest of the campaign?
Impractical, but it does beg the question as to why Cameron wasn't chosen for the multi-candidates' debates, rather than the spectacularly hopeless Penny Moredaunt.
As you still haven't been given your rightful place in HoL, you could take over and head the Tory campaign!
Some fascinating maneuvers today Putin appoints his niece and billionairess Anna Tsivileva as Deputy Defence Minister. Her husband is Minister of Energy.
Is it time for Lord Cameron take over from Rishi for the rest of the campaign?
Impractical, but it does beg the question as to why Cameron wasn't chosen for the multi-candidates' debates, rather than the spectacularly hopeless Penny Moredaunt.
He towers above the rest as a performer and safe pair of hands. But he's a Blair - top quality in every way except for the crucial errors: the failure to get a deal from the EU, the dire Remain campaign, the failure to plan for both possible results and, most of all, resigning at the very moment when prior preparation and continuity was essential.
Sorry to hear this. Incidentally I only recently discovered that Sunchyme is based on a mid-80s hit called Life In A Northern Town by The Dream Academy.
While I am very familiar with the excellent Life In A Northern Town, I've never heard of Sunchyme.
Must be an age thing.
The finest African music inspired folk song there is
A great song - I also loved their version of the Smiths “please” song in Ferris Bueller.
Remember Sunchyme coming out - such a huge hit. Was played everywhere. I guess the band chose their name back in the day when Dario Grady was a bit of Crewe hero and no one really questioned who he was happy to employ.
Labour has not explicitly ruled out a window tax. Or a beard tax.
You can only be sure with the Conservatives.
Kinda daft not to expect CGT to go up, that's basically signalled from the lack of denial. I'm in line for at least two CGT windfalls in the next few years. The first one I might get away with as it's hopefully happening before October (although I'm not holding my breath on that). The second one - far larger - no chance, still at least a couple of years away. And may not happen. Depends on us continuing to expand and do very well at whatever it is we do well, whoever us might be. Now atm it would be subject to entrepeneur's relief. But no guarantee that would exist with Labour either.
But kicking the tories in the face remains far more important to me. Even if @kyf_100 doesn't, others will think like me too. I'm nowhere near as bothered about balance sheet as I am about cashflow. And tories have had every fucking chance, EVERY FUCKING CHANCE to sort out the various cliff edges in our taxation system which as a young father are far more important to me every day. I trust Labour to either do that (unlikely) or provide a better system for my kid+upcoming kids (more likely). If it costs me a seven or (if very lucky) eight figure sum a couple of years down the line so be it. It's for the good of the country.
An Italian investment firm has made a profit of more than £50 million in the first year since George Osborne, the former chancellor, became its chairman.
Lingotto Investment Management, which is owned by the Agnelli family but is based in London, reported a profit of £53.5 million in the year to the end of December, a sharp increase on the £16.3 million it made in 2022.
Sorry to hear this. Incidentally I only recently discovered that Sunchyme is based on a mid-80s hit called Life In A Northern Town by The Dream Academy.
While I am very familiar with the excellent Life In A Northern Town, I've never heard of Sunchyme.
Must be an age thing.
The finest African music inspired folk song there is
Low bar if the competition is koom ba yar or however you spell it and the lion sleeps tonight
Top tip. Lions don't live in jungles
Well, they aren't really competition Kumbaya is a creole religious song and the lion sleeps is not a folk song. And lions indeed do not hang out in jungles
I know today has been St Nigel's Day, but has anyone seen or heard from Rishi?
The Tories seem to have gone from President Hyperactive Rishi to hiding him away. No idea why.
I think after the D-Day cock up, Rishi has realized he's just not up to it and given up.
Shame he didn't realize his limitations a couple of years ago...
Probably, and a shame most of the Labour front bench don't realise theirs too, but we will, as a country, be forced to watch as a bunch of lightweight no-hopers who would struggle to get a job in lower middle management fuck up the country in a way that that the dreaded Tories haven't even come close to even in the worst days of Lizzie Lettuce.
Feeling rather fatalistic tonight, Nigel?
Oh, I am completely expectant that there will be a Labour government, as most will expect it is a simple matter of how big their majority is. The Conservative Party completely fucked itself when it elected a buffoon to lead it because it thought, stupidly, that it would always face Labour leaders who even more ridiculous. Johnson gutted the Conservative Party so that the Conservatives look as amateurish as the Labour Party. Starmer is very much a left wing public sector man, but he is at least reasonably presentable, and I guess we have to rejoice at that news. That said, Labour always unravel in the end though, and looking at the paucity of talent on their front bench I expect it to happen fairly quickly.
Is it time for Lord Cameron take over from Rishi for the rest of the campaign?
Impractical, but it does beg the question as to why Cameron wasn't chosen for the multi-candidates' debates, rather than the spectacularly hopeless Penny Moredaunt.
As you still haven't been given your rightful place in HoL, you could take over and head the Tory campaign!
It is arguably the greatest political travesty of the century. But I'm not bitter. Genuinely, not in the slightest. Water off the proberbial duck's back.
Some fascinating maneuvers today Putin appoints his niece and billionairess Anna Tsivileva as Deputy Defence Minister. Her husband is Minister of Energy.
I know today has been St Nigel's Day, but has anyone seen or heard from Rishi?
The Tories seem to have gone from President Hyperactive Rishi to hiding him away. No idea why.
I have an idea why.
And who knows, maybe a few days of calm will work for them. The next debate isn't until the 26th, and the football will provide plenty of competition for people's attention until then.
There's clearly been a decision made to avoid an all-out attack on Refuk. I suspect that's wise - they want the Faragasm to dissipate, and boredom is probably the best way to encourage that.
Isn't there a risk that the media make the election look like a choice between Labour and Farage, if the Tories are quiet and hide?
One tax change that has not been ruled out by Labour is reform of pension tax relief.
The general suggestion is that tax relief on higher rate tax be ended and it limited to essentially a credit of 20% against tax liability or even 25% so that lower paid workers get a boost.
There is something quite seismic about this that buy to let landlords are well aware of. Such a change would end the tax exempt status of pensions.
Sure, a tax credit of 20% against tax on pension contributions would on the face of it mean anyone on basic rate tax paid no more, but it dosent.
Currently Pension contributions are not taxable income. So they don't count towards means testing on Universal Credit, they don't tip you over the higher rate tax threshold, they don't count towards the student loan repayment threshold, or parental means test, they don't count towards tipping you over the £100k childcare payment limit etc.
Change it to a 20% credit and every penny of those pension contributions becomes taxable income.
So, for example, someone earning £55k and paying £6k pension is now earning £56k taxable income. So they get a 20% credit on that £6k but as it is in the 40% band they still pay 20% tax on it (£1,200) and lose the marriage allowance.
It is worse than that though. That £5k is probably matched by an employer £5k contribution, if that is now taxable income with a 20% credit then he pays another £1,200 tax for the benefit in kind from his employer.
Plus he has two children. His income is now £62,000, so 10% of the families child benefit is clawed back.
It is a similar story for the family on £33,000 who pay £3,000 towards pension and get £3,000 matching payment from employer. Both are "refunded" by the new 20% tax credit but the taxable income has gone up from £30k to £36k.
So income £6k higher for Universal Credit means test. Universal credit taper rate is 55%. So £3,300 hit.
Gets worse though. He has a student loan. So 9% repayments on that £6,000 too. Another £540 gone.
So the end of salary sacrifice for pension contributions ?
People on the right have been talking about this for the past few weeks as if it's a certainty, but it's never been mentioned within Labour circles as far as I can see, certainly not since Starmer bedded in as leader.
Has anyone actually got any form of a source for this, or is it just doomcasting?
It's a bit like the CGT talk the other day, or CGT on main residence, part paranoia and part mischief.
Yes. For what it’s worth, I think Labour will raise taxes. Because they’ll have to. I suspect that will be CGT (not on first houses though) and I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see income tax go up for higher earners (exactly how high TBC).
But a lot of this stuff reads like pie in the sky doom-mongering and I see little evidence of it being attractive to an incoming government. Disincentivising pension saving and lumbering homeowners with a sales tax are going to be fundamentally unpopular to huge chunks of the electorate. I just can’t see it.
Taxing someone when they sell a house, and have a huge dollop of cash landing in their lap, makes more sense than taxing someone when they buy a house, and need to borrow money to pay the tax.
Sure, if you’ve got plenty of equity in your house. What if you don’t?
Tax refund?
A nice big fiscal transfer to homeowners in Northern Ireland, where house prices are still below 2007-08 levels...
A handy policy if the DUP are needed for a majority.
Is it time for Lord Cameron take over from Rishi for the rest of the campaign?
Impractical, but it does beg the question as to why Cameron wasn't chosen for the multi-candidates' debates, rather than the spectacularly hopeless Penny Mordaunt.
Has anyone other than Shapps done a morning media round in the past week?
Labour has not explicitly ruled out a window tax. Or a beard tax.
You can only be sure with the Conservatives.
The Conservatives will guarantee there will not be a Badly Fitting Blonde Wig Tax, as long a Michael Fabricant exists.
On topic(ish): it would be a Badly Fitting Blond Wig Tax unless Fabricant has transitioned?
"Fiancé/fiancée", "blond/blonde", and "brunet/brunette" are the only three gendered nouns I am aware of in the English language, and "brunet" is dying out. Unless you know of others, of course...
An Italian investment firm has made a profit of more than £50 million in the first year since George Osborne, the former chancellor, became its chairman.
Lingotto Investment Management, which is owned by the Agnelli family but is based in London, reported a profit of £53.5 million in the year to the end of December, a sharp increase on the £16.3 million it made in 2022.
Sorry to hear this. Incidentally I only recently discovered that Sunchyme is based on a mid-80s hit called Life In A Northern Town by The Dream Academy.
While I am very familiar with the excellent Life In A Northern Town, I've never heard of Sunchyme.
Must be an age thing.
The finest African music inspired folk song there is
Low bar if the competition is koom ba yar or however you spell it and the lion sleeps tonight
Top tip. Lions don't live in jungles
Well, they aren't really competition Kumbaya is a creole religious song and the lion sleeps is not a folk song. And lions indeed do not hang out in jungles
Some lions do live in rainforests, though ... and some in India.
Musings. I expect the Tories to poll much better than predicted. They usually do. However. There is no discernable sign of this. They've been heading inexorably down since the Election was called. I'm struggling to believe any of the seat numbers. Frankly, under 150 seems inconceivable. And yet I am left to reflect that under 200 seemed similar a few weeks ago. I believe my competition prediction was Labour majority of 70. More significantly, perhaps, there were a handful of people on NOM when the election was called, and a couple for Tory largest Party or even majority. Are there any now?
@Mexicanpete was on here every night telling anyone who would listen that Rishi was going to take the Tories to a 1992-style Tory majority. I presume he is on the 140-1 in a big way and planning his luxury world cruise.
I haven't indulged since 12-1, so if he does come in I will treat myself to a pedalo on Roath Park Lake. I fear I am reliant on the 3m overseas Tory voters with proxy votes in every 20% or less margin constituency in the country rather than genuine domestic voters, and even that might not be enough on current polling.
I could do with a grand on at 140-1 and it coming in though.
Sorry to hear this. Incidentally I only recently discovered that Sunchyme is based on a mid-80s hit called Life In A Northern Town by The Dream Academy.
While I am very familiar with the excellent Life In A Northern Town, I've never heard of Sunchyme.
Must be an age thing.
The finest African music inspired folk song there is
Low bar if the competition is koom ba yar or however you spell it and the lion sleeps tonight
Top tip. Lions don't live in jungles
Well, they aren't really competition Kumbaya is a creole religious song and the lion sleeps is not a folk song. And lions indeed do not hang out in jungles
Some lions do live in rainforests, though ... and some in India.
Labour has not explicitly ruled out a window tax. Or a beard tax.
You can only be sure with the Conservatives.
The Conservatives will guarantee there will not be a Badly Fitting Blonde Wig Tax, as long a Michael Fabricant exists.
On topic(ish): it would be a Badly Fitting Blond Wig Tax unless Fabricant has transitioned?
Are wigs make or female? In French, La perruque, so female.
Very true, but in British grammar the gender of the blondness pertains to the gender of its beholder. I am not wig-exclusionary, I am happy to consider a wig one’s ‘hair’.
One tax change that has not been ruled out by Labour is reform of pension tax relief.
The general suggestion is that tax relief on higher rate tax be ended and it limited to essentially a credit of 20% against tax liability or even 25% so that lower paid workers get a boost.
There is something quite seismic about this that buy to let landlords are well aware of. Such a change would end the tax exempt status of pensions.
Sure, a tax credit of 20% against tax on pension contributions would on the face of it mean anyone on basic rate tax paid no more, but it dosent.
Currently Pension contributions are not taxable income. So they don't count towards means testing on Universal Credit, they don't tip you over the higher rate tax threshold, they don't count towards the student loan repayment threshold, or parental means test, they don't count towards tipping you over the £100k childcare payment limit etc.
Change it to a 20% credit and every penny of those pension contributions becomes taxable income.
So, for example, someone earning £55k and paying £6k pension is now earning £56k taxable income. So they get a 20% credit on that £6k but as it is in the 40% band they still pay 20% tax on it (£1,200) and lose the marriage allowance.
It is worse than that though. That £5k is probably matched by an employer £5k contribution, if that is now taxable income with a 20% credit then he pays another £1,200 tax for the benefit in kind from his employer.
Plus he has two children. His income is now £62,000, so 10% of the families child benefit is clawed back.
It is a similar story for the family on £33,000 who pay £3,000 towards pension and get £3,000 matching payment from employer. Both are "refunded" by the new 20% tax credit but the taxable income has gone up from £30k to £36k.
So income £6k higher for Universal Credit means test. Universal credit taper rate is 55%. So £3,300 hit.
Gets worse though. He has a student loan. So 9% repayments on that £6,000 too. Another £540 gone.
But that is all rather like drones in Wales. Say something very narrowly specific and complain that Labour haven't excluded that narrowly specific thing. Like the mythical drones in Wales supposedly now leering into non-innocent Tories' gardens to assess the improvements they have carefully failed to report to the valuation bureau.
Is there any evidence they have this in mind? At all? As| opposed to being a general suggestion in the Tory media?
Imagine you get tax relief at 45% or 40% on all your pension contributions. You build a pot of £1m which generates a £50k annuity. Now, you only pay 20% on the way out. Plus, you got to "borrow" the tax and get compounding returns for decades.
Practically, getting rid of 45% tax relief would be a first step. Then reducing 40% to 30%. Salami slicing. Avoids increasing incime tax rates.
Governments should encourage pension saving to prevent state-reliance in old age. But it might not be in the interest of government to make pensioners rich.
This tory is relaxed about it. But then, this tory doesn't earn enough to pay higher rate tax.
It'll only be 20% coming out of the pension if the pensioner stays below whatever the 20% tax rate (if such it is) at the time. There's no particular reason to think that the pension tax treatment will be anything (specifically) by the time I'm taking my pension, in the unlikely event my disgraceful lifestyle lets me live that long. Hopefully similar to today's but who knows.
The point is to be a tax free untouchable savings vehicle. If you don't want it to be so then that's absolutely fine as a political choice (although I disagree). But don't get today's pensions savings policy mixed up with the future's pension taking policy cause you've no idea what that'll be.
Of course, nothing is guaranteed - and indeed pensioners currently get a larger 0% chunk, I think? But it's hard to imagine any future government charging higher rates on pensioners than employees.
Pensioners getting a larger allowance for income tax? Really? Only if above 85 or whatever it is (and of course the much-touted Sunakian but relatively small change in allowance to match basic state pension which is not yet implemented, I think). (Though NI presently has the same effect, of course.)
In 2016-7 the higher personal allowance for people born before 1938 was done away with (mainly because the standard personal allowance was increased beyond it, I think). Everyone is on the same now (unless Sunak is re-elected as PM).
Musings. I expect the Tories to poll much better than predicted. They usually do. However. There is no discernable sign of this. They've been heading inexorably down since the Election was called. I'm struggling to believe any of the seat numbers. Frankly, under 150 seems inconceivable. And yet I am left to reflect that under 200 seemed similar a few weeks ago. I believe my competition prediction was Labour majority of 70. More significantly, perhaps, there were a handful of people on NOM when the election was called, and a couple for Tory largest Party or even majority. Are there any now?
@Mexicanpete was on here every night telling anyone who would listen that Rishi was going to take the Tories to a 1992-style Tory majority. I presume he is on the 140-1 in a big way and planning his luxury world cruise.
I haven't indulged since 12-1, so if he does come in I will treat myself to a pedalo on Roath Park Lake. I fear I am reliant on the 3m overseas Tory voters with proxy votes in every 20% or less margin constituency in the country rather than genuine domestic voters, and even that might not be enough on current polling.
I could do with a grand on at 140-1 and it coming in though.
Yeah. You need 2.8 million of them to register by tomorrow night, only 200k at last count!
Musings. I expect the Tories to poll much better than predicted. They usually do. However. There is no discernable sign of this. They've been heading inexorably down since the Election was called. I'm struggling to believe any of the seat numbers. Frankly, under 150 seems inconceivable. And yet I am left to reflect that under 200 seemed similar a few weeks ago. I believe my competition prediction was Labour majority of 70. More significantly, perhaps, there were a handful of people on NOM when the election was called, and a couple for Tory largest Party or even majority. Are there any now?
@Mexicanpete was on here every night telling anyone who would listen that Rishi was going to take the Tories to a 1992-style Tory majority. I presume he is on the 140-1 in a big way and planning his luxury world cruise.
He kept up the charade for much longer than I expected.
More surprising, some folks took his posts seriously
An Italian investment firm has made a profit of more than £50 million in the first year since George Osborne, the former chancellor, became its chairman.
Lingotto Investment Management, which is owned by the Agnelli family but is based in London, reported a profit of £53.5 million in the year to the end of December, a sharp increase on the £16.3 million it made in 2022.
Labour has not explicitly ruled out a window tax. Or a beard tax.
You can only be sure with the Conservatives.
The Conservatives will guarantee there will not be a Badly Fitting Blonde Wig Tax, as long a Michael Fabricant exists.
On topic(ish): it would be a Badly Fitting Blond Wig Tax unless Fabricant has transitioned?
"Fiancé/fiancée", "blond/blonde", and "brunet/brunette" are the only three gendered nouns I am aware of in the English language, and "brunet" is dying out. Unless you know of others, of course...
They're not in the English language
Whereas actor actress, master mistress, ploughman ploughwoman and a thousand other examples are.
Labour has not explicitly ruled out a window tax. Or a beard tax.
You can only be sure with the Conservatives.
The Conservatives will guarantee there will not be a Badly Fitting Blonde Wig Tax, as long a Michael Fabricant exists.
On topic(ish): it would be a Badly Fitting Blond Wig Tax unless Fabricant has transitioned?
"Fiancé/fiancée", "blond/blonde", and "brunet/brunette" are the only three gendered nouns I am aware of in the English language, and "brunet" is dying out. Unless you know of others, of course...
Not politics but our son has just confirmed he is Llandudno latest Inshore Lifeboat helm being his first command position just under 3 years since he joined the RNLI
Our family with all its seafaring connections are very proud tonight
An Italian investment firm has made a profit of more than £50 million in the first year since George Osborne, the former chancellor, became its chairman.
Lingotto Investment Management, which is owned by the Agnelli family but is based in London, reported a profit of £53.5 million in the year to the end of December, a sharp increase on the £16.3 million it made in 2022.
Got to say I think this is the "flattest" election I can remember since 2001.
Even on the Labour side it's all weirdly low key?
I'd say it's flatter, much flatter. Still nothing here, no leaflets, no canvass, no garden or window posters, nothing. It's safe Labour but the Greens always work it hard for LEs, they had multiple placards up 2 months ago. Nada. Zilch. Zip. Turnout 55 to 60%?
An Italian investment firm has made a profit of more than £50 million in the first year since George Osborne, the former chancellor, became its chairman.
Lingotto Investment Management, which is owned by the Agnelli family but is based in London, reported a profit of £53.5 million in the year to the end of December, a sharp increase on the £16.3 million it made in 2022.
Would Cameron have saved his job / the country / the economy if it wasn’t for Osborne?
Danny Alexander deserves a lot of credit. Beaker the Park Ranger was unsung hero of the Coalition. He could have easy gone all party political spending him days planning to launch nuclear weapons ala Vince Cable, instead by all accounts got on with doing a decent job.
Musings. I expect the Tories to poll much better than predicted. They usually do. However. There is no discernable sign of this. They've been heading inexorably down since the Election was called. I'm struggling to believe any of the seat numbers. Frankly, under 150 seems inconceivable. And yet I am left to reflect that under 200 seemed similar a few weeks ago. I believe my competition prediction was Labour majority of 70. More significantly, perhaps, there were a handful of people on NOM when the election was called, and a couple for Tory largest Party or even majority. Are there any now?
@Mexicanpete was on here every night telling anyone who would listen that Rishi was going to take the Tories to a 1992-style Tory majority. I presume he is on the 140-1 in a big way and planning his luxury world cruise.
I haven't indulged since 12-1, so if he does come in I will treat myself to a pedalo on Roath Park Lake. I fear I am reliant on the 3m overseas Tory voters with proxy votes in every 20% or less margin constituency in the country rather than genuine domestic voters, and even that might not be enough on current polling.
I could do with a grand on at 140-1 and it coming in though.
You could achieve a partial hedge by agreeing with @Leon to give him £100 now in exchange for £5000 if the Tories got 0 seats. Now that he knows a bit about hedging this would teach him a bit about trading. It would also help @Sandpit mark his position to market as a minor liability if his wife asked. Everyone's a winner!
Labour has not explicitly ruled out a window tax. Or a beard tax.
You can only be sure with the Conservatives.
The Conservatives will guarantee there will not be a Badly Fitting Blonde Wig Tax, as long a Michael Fabricant exists.
On topic(ish): it would be a Badly Fitting Blond Wig Tax unless Fabricant has transitioned?
"Fiancé/fiancée", "blond/blonde", and "brunet/brunette" are the only three gendered nouns I am aware of in the English language, and "brunet" is dying out. Unless you know of others, of course...
They're not in the English language
Whereas actor actress, master mistress, ploughman ploughwoman and a thousand other examples are.
They are in the English language. They are borrowed from the French, but so are many English words.
Got to say I think this is the "flattest" election I can remember since 2001.
Even on the Labour side it's all weirdly low key?
I'd say it's flatter, much flatter. Still nothing here, no leaflets, no canvass, no garden or window posters, nothing. It's safe Labour but the Greens always work it hard for LEs, they had multiple placards up 2 months ago. Nada. Zilch. Zip. Turnout 55 to 60%?
Musings. I expect the Tories to poll much better than predicted. They usually do. However. There is no discernable sign of this. They've been heading inexorably down since the Election was called. I'm struggling to believe any of the seat numbers. Frankly, under 150 seems inconceivable. And yet I am left to reflect that under 200 seemed similar a few weeks ago. I believe my competition prediction was Labour majority of 70. More significantly, perhaps, there were a handful of people on NOM when the election was called, and a couple for Tory largest Party or even majority. Are there any now?
@Mexicanpete was on here every night telling anyone who would listen that Rishi was going to take the Tories to a 1992-style Tory majority. I presume he is on the 140-1 in a big way and planning his luxury world cruise.
He kept up the charade for much longer than I expected.
More surprising, some folks took his posts seriously
Oh he was serious alright, at least at one point. Don’t let him fool you.
Labour has not explicitly ruled out a window tax. Or a beard tax.
You can only be sure with the Conservatives.
The Conservatives will guarantee there will not be a Badly Fitting Blonde Wig Tax, as long a Michael Fabricant exists.
On topic(ish): it would be a Badly Fitting Blond Wig Tax unless Fabricant has transitioned?
"Fiancé/fiancée", "blond/blonde", and "brunet/brunette" are the only three gendered nouns I am aware of in the English language, and "brunet" is dying out. Unless you know of others, of course...
They're not in the English language
Whereas actor actress, master mistress, ploughman ploughwoman and a thousand other examples are.
Yes they are in the English language. At least according toi the dictionaries.
A financial crisis at one of Britain’s most heavily indebted local authorities has deepened after an an influential ratings agency removed its credit rating.
Moody’s said it was withdrawing the credit rating of Warrington borough council because the council could not show that successive annual accounts were signed off by external auditors.
The ratings agency cited a backlog in the publication of audited accounts that is affecting local authorities across England. Warrington has been in dispute with its auditors, Grant Thornton, amid debts of close to £2 billion.
Last month, a government inspector was appointed to look into whether Warrington was complying with a legal requirement to secure “best value” from its investments. The Labour-run authority’s audited annual accounts are years overdue.
The council has reportedly failed to pass key financial information to Grant Thornton, harming its ability to review its dealings. Auditors only recently finished reviewing its accounts for the year to April 2019 and they have called its borrowings “not affordable, prudent or sustainable”.
Labour has not explicitly ruled out a window tax. Or a beard tax.
You can only be sure with the Conservatives.
The Conservatives will guarantee there will not be a Badly Fitting Blonde Wig Tax, as long a Michael Fabricant exists.
On topic(ish): it would be a Badly Fitting Blond Wig Tax unless Fabricant has transitioned?
"Fiancé/fiancée", "blond/blonde", and "brunet/brunette" are the only three gendered nouns I am aware of in the English language, and "brunet" is dying out. Unless you know of others, of course...
Musings. I expect the Tories to poll much better than predicted. They usually do. However. There is no discernable sign of this. They've been heading inexorably down since the Election was called. I'm struggling to believe any of the seat numbers. Frankly, under 150 seems inconceivable. And yet I am left to reflect that under 200 seemed similar a few weeks ago. I believe my competition prediction was Labour majority of 70. More significantly, perhaps, there were a handful of people on NOM when the election was called, and a couple for Tory largest Party or even majority. Are there any now?
@Mexicanpete was on here every night telling anyone who would listen that Rishi was going to take the Tories to a 1992-style Tory majority. I presume he is on the 140-1 in a big way and planning his luxury world cruise.
I haven't indulged since 12-1, so if he does come in I will treat myself to a pedalo on Roath Park Lake. I fear I am reliant on the 3m overseas Tory voters with proxy votes in every 20% or less margin constituency in the country rather than genuine domestic voters, and even that might not be enough on current polling.
I could do with a grand on at 140-1 and it coming in though.
I hadn't realised you were in Cardiff. I used to walk past Roath Park Lake every evening on the way back to Uni Hall.
Labour has not explicitly ruled out a window tax. Or a beard tax.
You can only be sure with the Conservatives.
The Conservatives will guarantee there will not be a Badly Fitting Blonde Wig Tax, as long a Michael Fabricant exists.
On topic(ish): it would be a Badly Fitting Blond Wig Tax unless Fabricant has transitioned?
"Fiancé/fiancée", "blond/blonde", and "brunet/brunette" are the only three gendered nouns I am aware of in the English language, and "brunet" is dying out. Unless you know of others, of course...
Labour has not explicitly ruled out a window tax. Or a beard tax.
You can only be sure with the Conservatives.
The Conservatives will guarantee there will not be a Badly Fitting Blonde Wig Tax, as long a Michael Fabricant exists.
On topic(ish): it would be a Badly Fitting Blond Wig Tax unless Fabricant has transitioned?
"Fiancé/fiancée", "blond/blonde", and "brunet/brunette" are the only three gendered nouns I am aware of in the English language, and "brunet" is dying out. Unless you know of others, of course...
Comments
Shame he didn't realize his limitations a couple of years ago...
A possible is this: They have reconciled themselves to the reality that there is no choice but for Labour, regrettably, to win an election under social democrat colours. They will gain nothing by interfering or trying to lose it. The cause is for now lost. The 'moderates' have the numbers and the moment. This has happened before.
A chance will come to recover, though it will be harder. Never again will those in Labour who actually want power and government give the sort of chance they gave to Corbyn. But if you are Marxist and greenish you are likely to believe that the next government will bring the critical national crisis a little closer by the inexorable contradictions of capitalism because we are closer to realising that no available solutions can work. In non Marxist language, anyone can see that unstoppable forces are meeting immovable objects. (Eg Net Zero meets Global Middle Class; Debt Repayment meets Taxpayer Demands).
They are wrong. But not entirely so. Like the election the next few years will be fraught with interest. And like the poor, the left are always with us.
Must be an age thing.
Nothing is boosting them. Nothing at all. Unless a change begins immediately I think they are in a terminal death spiral
I don't see the opinion polls shifting between now and polling day.
Judging by the Video the Northern Town is Batley and the Ladies Guild are performing.
150 seats means only 220 losses, so holding places like Maidenhead (falls on a 17% swing)
The current wikiworm average (limitations apply) is C22L42, which is about a 16% swing but ignores tactical winding.
Write it down, and it looks bonkers, doesn't it? But electoral reality very likely is bonkers.
Or they need there to be a very heavy shy Tory miss in the polling
Some constituency polling would be good for a steer rn
Our family with all its seafaring connections are very proud tonight
I expect the Tories to poll much better than predicted. They usually do.
However. There is no discernable sign of this. They've been heading inexorably down since the Election was called. I'm struggling to believe any of the seat numbers. Frankly, under 150 seems inconceivable.
And yet I am left to reflect that under 200 seemed similar a few weeks ago. I believe my competition prediction was Labour majority of 70.
More significantly, perhaps, there were a handful of people on NOM when the election was called, and a couple for Tory largest Party or even majority.
Are there any now?
@simonmontefiore
Imperial succession.
Some fascinating maneuvers today
Putin appoints his niece and billionairess Anna Tsivileva as Deputy Defence Minister. Her husband is Minister of Energy.
https://x.com/simonmontefiore/status/1802727976200478831
An Italian investment firm has made a profit of more than £50 million in the first year since George Osborne, the former chancellor, became its chairman.
Lingotto Investment Management, which is owned by the Agnelli family but is based in London, reported a profit of £53.5 million in the year to the end of December, a sharp increase on the £16.3 million it made in 2022.
https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/companies/article/george-osbornes-investment-firm-triples-profits-in-a-year-whdknfcz5
A financial crisis at one of Britain’s most heavily indebted local authorities has deepened after an an influential ratings agency removed its credit rating.
Moody’s said it was withdrawing the credit rating of Warrington borough council because the council could not show that successive annual accounts were signed off by external auditors.
The ratings agency cited a backlog in the publication of audited accounts that is affecting local authorities across England. Warrington has been in dispute with its auditors, Grant Thornton, amid debts of close to £2 billion.
Last month, a government inspector was appointed to look into whether Warrington was complying with a legal requirement to secure “best value” from its investments. The Labour-run authority’s audited annual accounts are years overdue.
The council has reportedly failed to pass key financial information to Grant Thornton, harming its ability to review its dealings. Auditors only recently finished reviewing its accounts for the year to April 2019 and they have called its borrowings “not affordable, prudent or sustainable”.
https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/companies/article/warrington-council-loses-credit-rating-over-missing-audits-hrg2nnkk7
Psephologically interesting throughout and continuing is the massive range of arguable and predicted outcomes. Currently SFAICS Tories are expected to get between about 20 and about 220 seats depending on who you ask. This is strange.
Top tip. Lions don't live in jungles
Remember Sunchyme coming out - such a huge hit. Was played everywhere. I guess the band chose their name back in the day when Dario Grady was a bit of Crewe hero and no one really questioned who he was happy to employ.
But kicking the tories in the face remains far more important to me. Even if @kyf_100 doesn't, others will think like me too. I'm nowhere near as bothered about balance sheet as I am about cashflow. And tories have had every fucking chance, EVERY FUCKING CHANCE to sort out the various cliff edges in our taxation system which as a young father are far more important to me every day. I trust Labour to either do that (unlikely) or provide a better system for my kid+upcoming kids (more likely). If it costs me a seven or (if very lucky) eight figure sum a couple of years down the line so be it. It's for the good of the country.
Kumbaya is a creole religious song and the lion sleeps is not a folk song.
And lions indeed do not hang out in jungles
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2018/jun/29/in-the-red-again-george-osborne-leads-evening-standard-to-10m-loss
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-67144607
I could do with a grand on at 140-1 and it coming in though.
There's no discernable sign of them choosing the Tories in numbers sufficient to stop them sliding in the polls.
France are favourites and England have performed about the same in the opening game. Belgium have done worse
More surprising, some folks took his posts seriously
Even on the Labour side it's all weirdly low key?
Whereas actor actress, master mistress, ploughman ploughwoman and a thousand other examples are.
Turnout 55 to 60%?
I think a low turnout too, which is a shame.
REF is either going to surge and supplant, or it’s going to fall back and the Tories will probably recover a little.
If you’re a wavering Tory/REF voter you now have everything you need to make up your mind. And Farage has now played pretty much all his cards.
On balance, I think we will see that modest Tory recovery. But then I thought at this stage in the campaign, they’d be hovering around 28-29%, so….
The polls in the next 3-4 days are going to be absolutely crucial, I think.
https://x.com/Telegraph/status/1802808774572363861?s=19
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loanword
(the Russian word for "tank" is "tank", by the way)
*Insert hilarious Trans joke here