When replying to posts there seems to be some kind of error saying that I'm 1 character too short to post.
On @Casino_Royale's position that the Labour lead is soft:
Labour's lead has eroded slightly - but I think there is a clear environment where even many Tory voters want to punish the party. For many people that just means not voting or voting Labour.
I know betting wise this isn't going to be very interesting, but I am interested to see if Labour gets a bigger % than 2017, and a bigger total number of votes. It's hilarious and stupid that we have a system where the current Labour party may get a Baathist majority on similar vote shares / total votes than 2017.
And the other thing is I think this is soft support for Labour's governing - not winning. I think the support to kill the Tory party is strong. The desire to see Starmerism, not so much.
@Geri_E_L_Scott Excl: A Reform candidate described Adolf Hitler as “brilliant” and “able to inspire people to action” as part of a pseudoscientific theory that promotes 16 personality types.
RefUK should just brush this all off and keep going. They need to be the antidote to polished politics with plastic candidates with no personality. It has worked for Trump. The one thing I think they are doing wrong is trying to cancel the 'woke' left, they should rise above it and just say they believe in free speech, second chances, that kind of thing.
Everyone has said something stupid in their lives. All posters on here who have ever made an interesting contribution has said something a bit dodgy that could be spun out of context, particularly given how the zeitgeist has changed over the last 20 years.
‘Punk’ former BrewDog boss launches app for social media influencers. Social Tip could turn anyone into an online personality by simply posting reviews
Reform manifesto now published. A couple of notes:
Its budget stuff is just delusional drivel. Worse, if possible, than the others and much more populist.
There are one or two noteworthy nods to the conspiracy brigade: A disparaging mention of the World Economic Forum - a key conspiracy trope..
Also a call for Public Enquiry into vaccine deaths - another trope.
Scrap Net Zero: Code for 'Climate hoax'. Another conspiracy trope.
Notable silences: Russia, China, Putin, Ukraine, Israel (all these are subject to correction. Vita brevis, manifesto longa). But not silent on Sharia law.
Notable (and surprising) long grass: Social care.
It will abolish TV licence, but not abolish BBC. Silence on how it is funded.
The lead Labour lead is solid, has been for nearly two years, at 20 points or so. The *vote share* has dropped slightly, in tandem with the Tories dropping by roughly the same amount, keeping the lead constant.
This is political betting site. This is basic stuff.
...Since my recent health and mobility issues it was not nonsense when I said I cannot shower in the bath...
If it helps, you can get walk-in showers with seats in them and the council will chip in with things like rails. I have disabled rellies and they get stuff like that. Although I don't know if you already have them.
Thank you for your kind suggestion but at present with the help of strategically placed grips I can still get in and out the bath but I cannot stand in it under the shower
In the same hopefully helpful vein, if you have a shower over your bath, there are things called Bath Boards that are solid to sit on across your bath.
I supplied one of these to one of my tenants, who is 7x years old, where it was impossible for me to install a shower seat as we did at home for mum. 9 months later the tenants are happy with it. It is robust.
I fitted it across the wide section of a shower-bath. A snug fit of the adjustable part to the bath width is the important aspect, as the main H&S risk which has to be managed is it slipping sideways and falling down whilst you are sitting on it. The important point is to prevent any cross-bath movement.
The alternative would be to have ripped the bathroom out to install a walk-in shower, which since I do good bathrooms in my rentals I was not too keen on only 6 years after refurb.
(If you want to nerd on Accessible Ablutions, I wrote a series of 6 articles for a self-build forum when we did adaptions at home for mum. Link on request ! )
JL partners with 41 ConRef 54 LLG Which is out of line with others but makes things a bit more interesting
Yes, highest RefCon/ConRef combination for a long time. It implies Ref are getting some votes from other anti-Tory parties (LD down 2 in this poll for example) and perhaps the bloc effect is weakening.
First Post crossover poll too. I think a big anti politics effect is starting to show up.
Very much following the pattern of the Cleggasm in 2010. But somewhat more subdued. The Lib Dems had a few polls hitting 30%.
What will concern the Tories the most (apart from being miles behind) is that not a single poll in over a week has had then gaining %, all level or in decline. Labour mainly in decline but a couple with added %. Suggests DKs breaking for Reform and very few coming 'home' to blue or indeed red
There was a real tetchiness in Mandelson's remarks about Reform over the weekend, as if he thought it was the Tories' job to soak up their votes (and therefore keep safe Labour seats safe).
The more the Tories collapse, the harder it becomes for Labour in areas that they are used to taking for granted.
A result along the lines of Lab 35 Con 24 Ref 22 LD 10 Green 4 SnP/PC 3 Others 2
Could mean anything from Lab mega landslide to almost HP depending on vote splits. If Reform have taken what Con they can and start cannibalising Labour votes, the 2019 Con to Lab votes basically, this isn't impossible. And yet it feels like it should be.......
Every time we get a poll with Labour in the low 40s/high 30s we get posts of the ilk: "if my aunt had a willy she'd be my uncle".
The simple truth remains: No Overall Majority (NOM) is trading at 26 – twenty six! – on Betfair Exchange. It has lengthened since last week. If you think NOM is value, presumably you are all-in on that free money?
Tbf I find that post to be really interesting. It feel like a “reasonable worst case scenario” for Labour now we know the Tories are unlikely to be back in the 30s.
And I do think there’s an interesting question about how accurate anyone’s models can be if Reform gets to 20%+.
It's just wishcasting on Woolie's part and trollcasting on the part of William.
It's not wishcasting, if it were I'd make it as a prediction. It could just as easily be Lab 44 Con 21 Ref 10
The declining Labour share however needs to stall or they will indeed be heading towards mid 30s, they are currently on track for 39/40
Is it declining as such, or is it just a series of pollsters finding the same reduction in their share from its peak ten days ago?
That's what determines whether they sink into the 30s or poll a 1997/2001 type result. It remains to be seen. The Tories are also declining towards a 20% result. Anti politics is on the menu
Is it? What do you define as anti-politics? As far as I can see traditional parties account for the vast majority of the votes?
We are all in danger of our own personal biases affecting predictions here. For example someone who still supports the government is likely to expect significant swingback between now and the election as voters "come to their senses". Someone for whom Reform and Farage appeals is likely to expect more and more voters to move in their direction until crossover happens. Lefties who think Starmer is basically a red-Tory fascist expect a massive surge to Greens because what people really wanted was Corbyn.
I learned from bitter experience as a Lib Dem that what I believe about many things isn't what the majority of Brits believe. I'm not sure that attitude has percolated into the other parties yet though.
Each party has a floor and a ceiling with its current policy platform. We just don't know what they are. Take Reform: we can agree their floor is virtually zero but their ceiling? It could be mid teens. It could be 25%. Could it be even higher? Analyses of UK voter belief systems suggests their ceiling is fairly low. The Lib Dem long term ceiling seems to be about 20% give or take. The floor around 5-6%. Tory: up to 50, as low as what? 25% I reckon. Labour similar.
That leads me into my own - doubtless biased - conclusions. That for example something like 42:25:15:10 for Lab:Con:Ref:LD is possible, but say 38:20:25:10 probably isn't. And on the left of centre side 45:25:10:15 might conceivably happen but 48:22:10:15 couldn't.
Considering you have to go back to the 1950s for a Tory vote over 45, and to 1966 for Labour, I'd put their ceilings at nearer to that figure.
With the Lib Dems 'back', and Reform having a serious go on the right, this is pretty much the first four party election.
I'd say Labour above 40 would be quite the achievement. We could well be breaking a record for a new floor, considering the Tories lowpoint in the last 100 years was 31.5%.
David Miliband has been pictured campaigning for Labour in a marginal Tory seat, in a move that will prompt speculation about a future role in the party
How on earth is that going to work out? He's not standing anywhere is he? It surely would've been reported if he was.
If Labour win, sure he's part of the winning team, but not an MP.
Unless he stands in a by-election he's out of Parliament until 2028 at the earliest, when he'll be 63.
David Miliband was Labour's bright young thing in 2007/08 but after his defeat in 2010 and then running off to leave the country there's no chance he'll be back in frontline politics now. Especially if his brother is Business Secretary after this.
Reform manifesto now published. A couple of notes:
Its budget stuff is just delusional drivel. Worse, if possible, than the others and much more populist.
There are one or two noteworthy nods to the conspiracy brigade: A disparaging mention of the World Economic Forum - a key conspiracy trope..
Also a call for Public Enquiry into vaccine deaths - another trope.
Scrap Net Zero: Code for 'Climate hoax'. Another conspiracy trope.
Notable silences: Russia, China, Putin, Ukraine, Israel (all these are subject to correction. Vita brevis, manifesto longa). But not silent on Sharia law.
Notable (and surprising) long grass: Social care.
It will abolish TV licence, but not abolish BBC. Silence on how it is funded.
@sturdyAlex The Reform con-trick, from Farage's mouth.
Challenged on lack of any plan for delivery of zero migration or zero NHS waiting lists: "It's a promise of what we're going to campaign for. We're not going to be in gov't."
So, promising stuff he knows is nonsense. Just like #Brexit.
@Geri_E_L_Scott Excl: A Reform candidate described Adolf Hitler as “brilliant” and “able to inspire people to action” as part of a pseudoscientific theory that promotes 16 personality types.
When replying to posts there seems to be some kind of error saying that I'm 1 character too short to post.
On @Casino_Royale's position that the Labour lead is soft:
Labour's lead has eroded slightly - but I think there is a clear environment where even many Tory voters want to punish the party. For many people that just means not voting or voting Labour.
I know betting wise this isn't going to be very interesting, but I am interested to see if Labour gets a bigger % than 2017, and a bigger total number of votes. It's hilarious and stupid that we have a system where the current Labour party may get a Baathist majority on similar vote shares / total votes than 2017.
And the other thing is I think this is soft support for Labour's governing - not winning. I think the support to kill the Tory party is strong. The desire to see Starmerism, not so much.
The lead, as I say, is pretty constant. VI has dropped but the lead remains the same because so has the Conservatives'.
Off topic: A little bit of history that helps explain why Michelle Obama may not want to run for president: At his peak popularity, Colin Powell looked like a formidable candidate for the presidency. But he chose not to run, in part because his wife feared for his safety.
Coming from the crime-ridden city of Chicago, Michelle Obama has more experience than most of us with violent crime. And that, no doubt, also helps explain why she and Barack chose not to live in Chicago, after his presidency. Even with Secret Service protection.
David Miliband has been pictured campaigning for Labour in a marginal Tory seat, in a move that will prompt speculation about a future role in the party
How on earth is that going to work out? He's not standing anywhere is he? It surely would've been reported if he was.
If Labour win, sure he's part of the winning team, but not an MP.
Unless he stands in a by-election he's out of Parliament until 2028 at the earliest, when he'll be 63.
David Miliband was Labour's bright young thing in 2007/08 but after his defeat in 2010 and then running off to leave the country there's no chance he'll be back in frontline politics now. Especially if his brother is Business Secretary after this.
If only there was a recent precedent for a former party leader to be somehow parachuted into a senior cabinet role then we could take this seriously. As it is.....
Reform manifesto now published. A couple of notes:
Its budget stuff is just delusional drivel. Worse, if possible, than the others and much more populist.
There are one or two noteworthy nods to the conspiracy brigade: A disparaging mention of the World Economic Forum - a key conspiracy trope..
Also a call for Public Enquiry into vaccine deaths - another trope.
Scrap Net Zero: Code for 'Climate hoax'. Another conspiracy trope.
Notable silences: Russia, China, Putin, Ukraine, Israel (all these are subject to correction. Vita brevis, manifesto longa). But not silent on Sharia law.
Notable (and surprising) long grass: Social care.
It will abolish TV licence, but not abolish BBC. Silence on how it is funded.
@sturdyAlex The Reform con-trick, from Farage's mouth.
Challenged on lack of any plan for delivery of zero migration or zero NHS waiting lists: "It's a promise of what we're going to campaign for. We're not going to be in gov't."
So, promising stuff he knows is nonsense. Just like #Brexit.
@Geri_E_L_Scott Excl: A Reform candidate described Adolf Hitler as “brilliant” and “able to inspire people to action” as part of a pseudoscientific theory that promotes 16 personality types.
Bit of a barrel scraper that one. Do we think Hitler was unable to inspire people into action? I thought that was a fairly basic 'thing we know' about Hitler.
Reform manifesto now published. A couple of notes:
Its budget stuff is just delusional drivel. Worse, if possible, than the others and much more populist.
There are one or two noteworthy nods to the conspiracy brigade: A disparaging mention of the World Economic Forum - a key conspiracy trope..
Also a call for Public Enquiry into vaccine deaths - another trope.
Scrap Net Zero: Code for 'Climate hoax'. Another conspiracy trope.
Notable silences: Russia, China, Putin, Ukraine, Israel (all these are subject to correction. Vita brevis, manifesto longa). But not silent on Sharia law.
Notable (and surprising) long grass: Social care.
It will abolish TV licence, but not abolish BBC. Silence on how it is funded.
Any news on getting the trains to run on time?
Who cares about the time? Surely Reform are promising A4 Pacifics to pull them.
Off topic: A little bit of history that helps explain why Michelle Obama may not want to run for president: At his peak popularity, Colin Powell looked like a formidable candidate for the presidency. But he chose not to run, in part because his wife feared for his safety.
Coming from the crime-ridden city of Chicago, Michelle Obama has more experience than most of us with violent crime. And that, no doubt, also helps explain why she and Barack chose not to live in Chicago, after his presidency. Even with Secret Service protection.
Just seen the tax/spend commitments of the various parties in the BBC graphics. Labour's actually the most fiscally prudent it seems though the Tories would give me a bit more cash back via the future NI cut and I presume continuation of the 5p fuel duty cut. ~ Albeit on differing priorities (To put it mildly) the Greens and Reform both appear ready to spend like drunken sailors. Inflation would surely go up mahoosively if either were in charge. Perhaps SKS is the best bet for rate cuts...
I see that, despite all sorts of unpredictable local factors, Labour is still 1/7 on in Leicester East. That doesn't look particularly good value to me, at least in so far as there are other seats which offer far better value for a Labour win at similar odds.
So if you fancy backing Labour in a constituency market at odds of 1/7, here's an alternative offering easy money (informed by a not inconsiderable bit of local knowledge thrown in.) Wolverhampton West. The Conservatives are defending a majority over Labour of under 2% from 2019. Looks absolutely nailed on for Labour. The sitting Tory MP has done the chicken run. Labour has a local candidate who's spent his whole life in the area. He's a Sikh in the seat with the highest proportion of Sikh's in the UK, a seat in which Labour has never had a Sikh parliamentary candidate before. And while they haven't quite given up entirely, the Tories are putting on a pretty nominal campaign only.
If the Conservatives win in Wolverhampton West, the Conservatives will be on course to win most seats, a market on which you can get 50/1. That shows how nailed on Wolverhampton West is for Labour. 1/7 on is great value.
Must admit we are taking very different things from that video. I see him wave to the crowd, then look at the crowd for a few seconds, and then walk off with Obama.
The Tories got 37% in 2010 and fell short of an overall majority. Labour polled 29.7%.
On the other hand, in 2005, the Labour Party only polled 35%, was less than 3 percentage points ahead of the Conservatives, and yet won a 66 seat majority.
In the 1997-2010 era, left of centre tactical voting was real, and it was pretty awful for the Conservatives. In the immediate post-coalition period, tactical voting dried up.
I think - for 2024 - it's back.
And voting efficiency matters, and on anything that looked like the JLP poll, I would expect a Labour majority of at least 125, because that's what a gap of 17 percentage points over your nearest competitor is going to yield.
This election looks like 1983 in reverse to me, with the Conservatives and Reform playing the roles of the Labour Party and the Alliance.
It's extremely hard to see Labour losing any seats, never mind many.
The one from this list and the last post (thanks Pip) that I did wonder about was Canterbury. The students will be away. Those that stay may be tempted to the Greens. Wouldn't take much of the rest of her vote peeling away to make it vulnerable.
Yes, Rosie is marmite and will lose some erstwhile supporters, but the Conservatives will lose more so I reckon her odds (1/8) are about right.
Must admit we are taking very different things from that video. I see him wave to the crowd, then look at the crowd for a few seconds, and then walk off with Obama.
JLP adjusts its numbers based on its own assessments of likelihood to vote, reallocation of DKs etc.
The unadjusted number, with DKs excluded, is:
Lab 43% Con 21% Reform 16% LD 10% Green 5%
Whether Tory and Reform voters are more motivated to turn out than Labour and LibDem ones and whether DKs will break Tory and Reform is a judgement call. Given where we are in the campaign, I might buy it for Reform. I am not sure I do for the Tories.
I suspect Labour will win Sheffield Hallam at a gentle trot.
The one that really stands out there is Islington North: I suspect that (a) most voters in the constituency were actually Labour voters rather than Corbyn voters, and (b) you may well see the 2019 LD vote go for the Labour over Corbyn.
13/8 odds look very generous.
The way the polls are going, Labour could probably win Sheffield Hallam with a gentle Trot
I see that, despite all sorts of unpredictable local factors, Labour is still 1/7 on in Leicester East. That doesn't look particularly good value to me, at least in so far as there are other seats which offer far better value for a Labour win at similar odds.
So if you fancy backing Labour in a constituency market at odds of 1/7, here's an alternative offering easy money (informed by a not inconsiderable bit of local knowledge thrown in.) Wolverhampton West. The Conservatives are defending a majority over Labour of under 2% from 2019. Looks absolutely nailed on for Labour. The sitting Tory MP has done the chicken run. Labour has a local candidate who's spent his whole life in the area. He's a Sikh in the seat with the highest proportion of Sikh's in the UK, a seat in which Labour has never had a Sikh parliamentary candidate before. And while they haven't quite given up entirely, the Tories are putting on a pretty nominal campaign only.
If the Conservatives win in Wolverhampton West, the Conservatives will be on course to win most seats, a market on which you can get 50/1. That shows how nailed on Wolverhampton West is for Labour. 1/7 on is great value.
That's a good tip. For what it's worth the YouGov MRP gives the seat to Labour by 53% to 28% for the Conservatives.
I suspect Labour will win Sheffield Hallam at a gentle trot.
The one that really stands out there is Islington North: I suspect that (a) most voters in the constituency were actually Labour voters rather than Corbyn voters, and (b) you may well see the 2019 LD vote go for the Labour over Corbyn.
13/8 odds look very generous.
Are you getting your numbers from Gallup or from Kantar?
It's extremely hard to see Labour losing any seats, never mind many.
The one from this list and the last post (thanks Pip) that I did wonder about was Canterbury. The students will be away. Those that stay may be tempted to the Greens. Wouldn't take much of the rest of her vote peeling away to make it vulnerable.
The students were also away on 12 December 2019 but she kept her seat nevertheless. The demographics of Canterbury now include the solidly Labour Whitstable. Rosie doesn't rely on the students.
EDIT - having checked the term officially ended the following day, 13 December, but classes had long finished for Christmas.
JLP adjusts its numbers based on its own assessments of likelihood to vote, reallocation of DKs etc.
The unadjusted number, with DKs excluded, is:
Lab 43% Con 21% Reform 16% LD 10% Green 5%
Whether Tory and Reform voters are more motivated to turn out than Labour and LibDem ones and whether DKs will break Tory and Reform is a judgement call. Given where we are in the campaign, I might buy it for Reform. I am not sure I do for the Tories.
Is it that the DKs are more likely to be Tory2019s? The polling companies can probably anticipate if/who they'll vote for by now.
The Lib Dem -2 suggests that it might be a bit skewed too, and all those changes are margin of error.
Just seen the tax/spend commitments of the various parties in the BBC graphics. Labour's actually the most fiscally prudent it seems though the Tories would give me a bit more cash back via the future NI cut and I presume continuation of the 5p fuel duty cut. ~ Albeit on differing priorities (To put it mildly) the Greens and Reform both appear ready to spend like drunken sailors. Inflation would surely go up mahoosively if either were in charge. Perhaps SKS is the best bet for rate cuts...
I mean, inflation isn't necessarily related to spending - the most recent bout we had came about due to supply chain issues, not spending. And the Greens quite clearly outline where they plan to get the money they want to spend - by taxing wealth. Making money that is sitting still do the work of acting in the common good may heat up the economy a bit, but it's targeted support at tackling the things that are currently costing the average person the most - energy (via mass insulation and investment in green energy) as well as generally supporting poorer people more.
When replying to posts there seems to be some kind of error saying that I'm 1 character too short to post.
On @Casino_Royale's position that the Labour lead is soft:
Labour's lead has eroded slightly - but I think there is a clear environment where even many Tory voters want to punish the party. For many people that just means not voting or voting Labour.
I know betting wise this isn't going to be very interesting, but I am interested to see if Labour gets a bigger % than 2017, and a bigger total number of votes. It's hilarious and stupid that we have a system where the current Labour party may get a Baathist majority on similar vote shares / total votes than 2017.
And the other thing is I think this is soft support for Labour's governing - not winning. I think the support to kill the Tory party is strong. The desire to see Starmerism, not so much.
I don't think the country is keen for any "ism" at this juncture. This is one reason for the coming SKS landslide.
The Daily Mail has been counting TikTok views so we don't have to. Unlike on Facebook and TwiX, these are not paid adverts.
They're not paid adverts, but as I understand it they might still have been subject to paid promotion. Rishi's National Service explainer reeks of that, and I'd be very surprised if all of those 3.8M views were purely organic.
A Reform UK general election candidate described Adolf Hitler as “brilliant” and “able to inspire people to action” as part of a pseudoscientific theory that promotes 16 personality types.
Jack Aaron, who is standing against the incumbent Grant Shapps, the defence secretary, in Welwyn Hatfield, founded the World Socionics Society — a group promoting the theory.
However, in comments made online over the past four years he has described Hitler as “brilliant”, said President Assad, the Syrian dictator, was “gentle by nature” and that President Putin’s use of force in Ukraine was “legitimate”.
When replying to posts there seems to be some kind of error saying that I'm 1 character too short to post.
It is a Vanilla bug that always interprets the "less than" symbol or < as the start of an html tag, which because it is never closed, swallows the rest of the message and your reply, leaving 0 characters which is one too short. When you get this error, look for something like Labour will win <600 seats in the message you have quoted.
JL partners with 41 ConRef 54 LLG Which is out of line with others but makes things a bit more interesting
Yes, highest RefCon/ConRef combination for a long time. It implies Ref are getting some votes from other anti-Tory parties (LD down 2 in this poll for example) and perhaps the bloc effect is weakening.
First Post crossover poll too. I think a big anti politics effect is starting to show up.
Very much following the pattern of the Cleggasm in 2010. But somewhat more subdued. The Lib Dems had a few polls hitting 30%.
What will concern the Tories the most (apart from being miles behind) is that not a single poll in over a week has had then gaining %, all level or in decline. Labour mainly in decline but a couple with added %. Suggests DKs breaking for Reform and very few coming 'home' to blue or indeed red
There was a real tetchiness in Mandelson's remarks about Reform over the weekend, as if he thought it was the Tories' job to soak up their votes (and therefore keep safe Labour seats safe).
The more the Tories collapse, the harder it becomes for Labour in areas that they are used to taking for granted.
A result along the lines of Lab 35 Con 24 Ref 22 LD 10 Green 4 SnP/PC 3 Others 2
Could mean anything from Lab mega landslide to almost HP depending on vote splits. If Reform have taken what Con they can and start cannibalising Labour votes, the 2019 Con to Lab votes basically, this isn't impossible. And yet it feels like it should be.......
Every time we get a poll with Labour in the low 40s/high 30s we get posts of the ilk: "if my aunt had a willy she'd be my uncle".
The simple truth remains: No Overall Majority (NOM) is trading at 26 – twenty six! – on Betfair Exchange. It has lengthened since last week. If you think NOM is value, presumably you are all-in on that free money?
Tbf I find that post to be really interesting. It feel like a “reasonable worst case scenario” for Labour now we know the Tories are unlikely to be back in the 30s.
And I do think there’s an interesting question about how accurate anyone’s models can be if Reform gets to 20%+.
It's just wishcasting on Woolie's part and trollcasting on the part of William.
And I placed a value bet on it.
So thanks to both.
The scenario implies Con+Ref share about 9 percentage points adrift of most current polling. It's 5 points adrift of JLP, which is already an outlier. Possible I guess but I think it would require a massive shift in voter sentiment from all parties towards Reform.
When replying to posts there seems to be some kind of error saying that I'm 1 character too short to post.
It is a Vanilla bug that always interprets the "less than" symbol or < as the start of an html tag, which because it is never closed, swallows the rest of the message and your reply, leaving 0 characters which is one too short. When you get this error, look for something like Labour will win <600 seats in the message you have quoted.
David Miliband has been pictured campaigning for Labour in a marginal Tory seat, in a move that will prompt speculation about a future role in the party
How on earth is that going to work out? He's not standing anywhere is he? It surely would've been reported if he was.
If Labour win, sure he's part of the winning team, but not an MP.
Unless he stands in a by-election he's out of Parliament until 2028 at the earliest, when he'll be 63.
David Miliband was Labour's bright young thing in 2007/08 but after his defeat in 2010 and then running off to leave the country there's no chance he'll be back in frontline politics now. Especially if his brother is Business Secretary after this.
If only there was a recent precedent for a former party leader to be somehow parachuted into a senior cabinet role then we could take this seriously. As it is.....
Well, if its an attempt to come back as PM, then no; there is no recent precedent. If it's an attempt to emulate David Cameron then yes, but 'anyone' [1] can do that. Neil Kinnock could be brought back on 5th July as Chancellor if Starmer really wanted.
[1] By anyone, I mean anyone the incumbent Prime Minister wants to have a senior cabinet job.
A Reform UK general election candidate described Adolf Hitler as “brilliant” and “able to inspire people to action” as part of a pseudoscientific theory that promotes 16 personality types.
Jack Aaron, who is standing against the incumbent Grant Shapps, the defence secretary, in Welwyn Hatfield, founded the World Socionics Society — a group promoting the theory.
However, in comments made online over the past four years he has described Hitler as “brilliant”, said President Assad, the Syrian dictator, was “gentle by nature” and that President Putin’s use of force in Ukraine was “legitimate”.
This is the sort of thing that makes me angry to see the pile on on Big G for voting Conservative.
Personally, I would like to see the Conservatives out of power for a long time, so they can go and sit in the naughty corner and think about what they've done to piss off most of the electorate, and come back with some new centre-right, pro-business, socially liberal policies.
But there is a big danger that the rump Conservatives shift even further rightwards and end up in coalition or being reverse taken over by the Fashy Loon Party. If you think a vote for the Conservatives reduces that possibility, then it's a reason to vote for them. Unfortunately, I think they'll just take it as an endorsement of their current direction and keep going further towards the illiberal Reform right anyway, so they will not be getting my vote.
When replying to posts there seems to be some kind of error saying that I'm 1 character too short to post.
On @Casino_Royale's position that the Labour lead is soft:
Labour's lead has eroded slightly - but I think there is a clear environment where even many Tory voters want to punish the party. For many people that just means not voting or voting Labour.
I know betting wise this isn't going to be very interesting, but I am interested to see if Labour gets a bigger % than 2017, and a bigger total number of votes. It's hilarious and stupid that we have a system where the current Labour party may get a Baathist majority on similar vote shares / total votes than 2017.
And the other thing is I think this is soft support for Labour's governing - not winning. I think the support to kill the Tory party is strong. The desire to see Starmerism, not so much.
I don't think the country is keen for any "ism" at this juncture. This is one reason for the coming SKS landslide.
But the thing is once he is in government there will be an ism. There is no such thing as "common sense" "non ideological" governance.
A Reform UK general election candidate described Adolf Hitler as “brilliant” and “able to inspire people to action” as part of a pseudoscientific theory that promotes 16 personality types.
Jack Aaron, who is standing against the incumbent Grant Shapps, the defence secretary, in Welwyn Hatfield, founded the World Socionics Society — a group promoting the theory.
However, in comments made online over the past four years he has described Hitler as “brilliant”, said President Assad, the Syrian dictator, was “gentle by nature” and that President Putin’s use of force in Ukraine was “legitimate”.
This is the sort of thing that makes me angry to see the pile on on Big G for voting Conservative.
Personally, I would like to see the Conservatives out of power for a long time, so they can go and sit in the naughty corner and think about what they've done to piss off most of the electorate, and come back with some new centre-right, pro-business, socially liberal policies.
But there is a big danger that the rump Conservatives shift even further rightwards and end up in coalition or being reverse taken over by the Fashy Loon Party. If you think a vote for the Conservatives reduces that possibility, then it's a reason to vote for them. Unfortunately, I think they'll just take it as an endorsement of their current direction and keep going further towards the illiberal Reform right anyway, so they will not be getting my vote.
It does also make a bit of a mockery of some of the Tories that get particular large proportion of the incoming abuse, in which they are lazily labelled as Nazis or just like the Nazis....They are actual proper ones knocking about.
A Reform UK general election candidate described Adolf Hitler as “brilliant” and “able to inspire people to action” as part of a pseudoscientific theory that promotes 16 personality types.
Jack Aaron, who is standing against the incumbent Grant Shapps, the defence secretary, in Welwyn Hatfield, founded the World Socionics Society — a group promoting the theory.
However, in comments made online over the past four years he has described Hitler as “brilliant”, said President Assad, the Syrian dictator, was “gentle by nature” and that President Putin’s use of force in Ukraine was “legitimate”.
JL partners with 41 ConRef 54 LLG Which is out of line with others but makes things a bit more interesting
Yes, highest RefCon/ConRef combination for a long time. It implies Ref are getting some votes from other anti-Tory parties (LD down 2 in this poll for example) and perhaps the bloc effect is weakening.
First Post crossover poll too. I think a big anti politics effect is starting to show up.
Very much following the pattern of the Cleggasm in 2010. But somewhat more subdued. The Lib Dems had a few polls hitting 30%.
What will concern the Tories the most (apart from being miles behind) is that not a single poll in over a week has had then gaining %, all level or in decline. Labour mainly in decline but a couple with added %. Suggests DKs breaking for Reform and very few coming 'home' to blue or indeed red
There was a real tetchiness in Mandelson's remarks about Reform over the weekend, as if he thought it was the Tories' job to soak up their votes (and therefore keep safe Labour seats safe).
The more the Tories collapse, the harder it becomes for Labour in areas that they are used to taking for granted.
A result along the lines of Lab 35 Con 24 Ref 22 LD 10 Green 4 SnP/PC 3 Others 2
Could mean anything from Lab mega landslide to almost HP depending on vote splits. If Reform have taken what Con they can and start cannibalising Labour votes, the 2019 Con to Lab votes basically, this isn't impossible. And yet it feels like it should be.......
Every time we get a poll with Labour in the low 40s/high 30s we get posts of the ilk: "if my aunt had a willy she'd be my uncle".
The simple truth remains: No Overall Majority (NOM) is trading at 26 – twenty six! – on Betfair Exchange. It has lengthened since last week. If you think NOM is value, presumably you are all-in on that free money?
Tbf I find that post to be really interesting. It feel like a “reasonable worst case scenario” for Labour now we know the Tories are unlikely to be back in the 30s.
And I do think there’s an interesting question about how accurate anyone’s models can be if Reform gets to 20%+.
It's just wishcasting on Woolie's part and trollcasting on the part of William.
And I placed a value bet on it.
So thanks to both.
The scenario implies Con+Ref share about 9 percentage points adrift of most current polling. It's 5 points adrift of JLP, which is already an outlier. Possible I guess but I think it would require a massive shift in voter sentiment from all parties towards Reform.
Should add the last time Con+Ref share reached 46% was during Johnson's brief Covid vaccine boost.
‘Punk’ former BrewDog boss launches app for social media influencers. Social Tip could turn anyone into an online personality by simply posting reviews
It is a bit difficult trying to deny this though you would be surprised at what @Leon and others might try. That is the problem with stats. You can bend 'em more than Beckham.
A Reform UK general election candidate described Adolf Hitler as “brilliant” and “able to inspire people to action” as part of a pseudoscientific theory that promotes 16 personality types.
Jack Aaron, who is standing against the incumbent Grant Shapps, the defence secretary, in Welwyn Hatfield, founded the World Socionics Society — a group promoting the theory.
However, in comments made online over the past four years he has described Hitler as “brilliant”, said President Assad, the Syrian dictator, was “gentle by nature” and that President Putin’s use of force in Ukraine was “legitimate”.
Reform is essentially a fascist party with a fascist leadership. Farage was called out as a racist who casually uses the n-word by the founder of UKIP, Alan Sked. AFAIK Farage has not attempted to sue him on this point. I have to wonder whether Putin-apologist-Farage saying that Sunak was "not a patriot" was actually a bit of dog whistle politics to emphasise Sunak's ethnicity rather than his ill-timed attendance at the D-Day commemoration.
Reform are fascists. It is time the media called them out as such
Must admit we are taking very different things from that video. I see him wave to the crowd, then look at the crowd for a few seconds, and then walk off with Obama.
Yes but if he wasn't such a clapped-out wreck he'd have been on his rollerskates.
Where are Biden's skates? Why are they never on his feet? What are they hiding?
It's ridiculous that we can't manufacture such lateral flow test kits domestically.
If you remember, the UK government did try to get UK companies to do this, and there were a load of issues with getting them to work properly and with the level of accuracy. Several UK companies early on claimed they had them working but the government labs analysed their performances and they just weren't accurate enough.
And that's before we talk about scale. The media and the public demanded we could all test all the time, there were twats demanding the ability to test more than once a day (on the government dime), so the scale required was off the charts. You can't just magic up mega production lines. We were going through insane amount of tests.
The huge mistake Boris made post-pandemic, they shut down the task force that was looking at UK's overdependence on China for crucial items.
It's ridiculous that we can't manufacture such lateral flow test kits domestically.
We do manufacture lateral flow tests in large quantities in the UK. What is ridiculous is that our nationalised health religion (aka the NHS) deliberately does not favour British manufacturers and its procurement teams largely favour low cost devices over slightly more expensive ones that would help secure jobs in UK companies. Not expecting this situation to get any better under Labour.
Reform today have made the choice to be Tories on steroids rather than a more red-walley (or supposedly re-walley) economically left, culturally right party.
Not clear how much of that is pre-existing Tice policy as opposed to Farage policy. But I think it will blunt their firepower. It's not as regressive financially as the Tory manifesto but it also doesn't imply things like the NHS and social care being fixed are a priority. Makes it easier for Labour, Greens and Lib Dems to point to them and say they're just like the Tories.
Best for Britains tactical voting guide is out. I've just been scanning through. A few surprises (it says vote Labour in Southam and Kenilworth but my parents who live there are convinced the Lib Dems are the main challengers after the council elections - perhaps @SouthamObserver can opine), but most are as expected.
And that makes it four out of four of the tactical voting websites that come up on the first page of a google search (using my one image per day on this):
My current take is that we're (Lib Dems) ahead at the moment, but taking absolutely nothing for granted.
The Tory vote is very quiet indeed. D-day has really pissed people off. Quite a lot are coming over directly. Others are, as described by a volunteer down from London over the weekend in the pub after canvassing, "Lib-Dem-curious" and willing to take leaflets and ask questions. I suspect many will simply not vote at all.
I think we have an advantage over Labour there that it feels less of a jump to cross over to us rather than straight to Labour (the memories of the Corbyn era are still pretty strong amongst people less invested day-to-day in politics than ourselves)
Olly's name recognition is remarkably good. It's reminiscent of the way Layla's name was recognised on the doorstep in OxWAb in 2017. This has certainly been helped by the fact we've been getting out leaflets at least once a month over the past year and a bit, especially in Didcot town itself (Olly ramped up efforts in Didcot town itself early on and has been methodically doubling down on that). <1/2>
Reform manifesto now published. A couple of notes:
Its budget stuff is just delusional drivel. Worse, if possible, than the others and much more populist.
There are one or two noteworthy nods to the conspiracy brigade: A disparaging mention of the World Economic Forum - a key conspiracy trope..
Also a call for Public Enquiry into vaccine deaths - another trope.
Scrap Net Zero: Code for 'Climate hoax'. Another conspiracy trope.
Notable silences: Russia, China, Putin, Ukraine, Israel (all these are subject to correction. Vita brevis, manifesto longa). But not silent on Sharia law.
Notable (and surprising) long grass: Social care.
It will abolish TV licence, but not abolish BBC. Silence on how it is funded.
On the last one there are many different options open to the BBC. I do not see any issue with not advocating one specific means now.
That's an attractive policy.
Less so the other stuff although their previous utterances on net zero have not been climate denial, they say we need to do out part, and they have advocated an expansion of Nuclear power.
That's pretty poor from them. She is not a threat to our security. Shameful really.
It is a hyperbolic title, but the criticism that she has a very strong influence on Starmer and that she has opposed nuclear weapons has a basis in fact.
A Reform UK general election candidate described Adolf Hitler as “brilliant” and “able to inspire people to action” as part of a pseudoscientific theory that promotes 16 personality types.
Jack Aaron, who is standing against the incumbent Grant Shapps, the defence secretary, in Welwyn Hatfield, founded the World Socionics Society — a group promoting the theory.
However, in comments made online over the past four years he has described Hitler as “brilliant”, said President Assad, the Syrian dictator, was “gentle by nature” and that President Putin’s use of force in Ukraine was “legitimate”.
You wonder how many more of these will appear. I remain sceptical of any Reform takeover or merger with the Cons for exactly this sort of reason (that, and were I Tory myself, I would not particularly want to be making overtures to someone who is setting out to gut my party and use it as a host organism).
Best for Britains tactical voting guide is out. I've just been scanning through. A few surprises (it says vote Labour in Southam and Kenilworth but my parents who live there are convinced the Lib Dems are the main challengers after the council elections - perhaps @SouthamObserver can opine), but most are as expected.
And that makes it four out of four of the tactical voting websites that come up on the first page of a google search (using my one image per day on this):
My current take is that we're (Lib Dems) ahead at the moment, but taking absolutely nothing for granted.
The Tory vote is very quiet indeed. D-day has really pissed people off. Quite a lot are coming over directly. Others are, as described by a volunteer down from London over the weekend in the pub after canvassing, "Lib-Dem-curious" and willing to take leaflets and ask questions. I suspect many will simply not vote at all.
I think we have an advantage over Labour there that it feels less of a jump to cross over to us rather than straight to Labour (the memories of the Corbyn era are still pretty strong amongst people less invested day-to-day in politics than ourselves)
Olly's name recognition is remarkably good. It's reminiscent of the way Layla's name was recognised on the doorstep in OxWAb in 2017. This has certainly been helped by the fact we've been getting out leaflets at least once a month over the past year and a bit, especially in Didcot town itself (Olly ramped up efforts in Didcot town itself early on and has been methodically doubling down on that). <1/2>
Labour's vote has seemed also a bit soft - where I'll agree with NPXMP is that the anti-Tory vote is palpable, but it looks as though we've been steadily solidifying the tactical vote towards us (which can only be helped by the recommendations of all the tactical voting websites). This was helped by the fact Labour appeared very slow out of the traps - their first leaflet only dropped over the past weekend. (I'm now feeling a bit bad about previously feeling smug about that now that I know about poor Nick being taken out by his stroke at a key moment - he's their driving force and that really can't have helped). I've seen two Labour stakeboards and two Labour window posters (and I've been out and about and looking for them); I've been told there's a handful more of these over towards Wallingford and Brightwell. Other than that, the Labour campaign has been very much under the radar from what I've seen.
Tory campaign near-invisible - we've had one Tory GE leaflet through the post, and Johnston is getting bad press wherever he tries anything (huge bad press over a Sunak visit with him to a local school where the parents were up in arms about being told they kids were "meeting a local celebrity." They did not like this, comments about the Tories trying to use their kids for PR and them missing lessons - it made the Oxford Mail). One further leaflet on the by-election: there's a double-header by-election for county council and district council on Thursday this week and a perennial Tory candidate is out and about leafleting for that (well, we got one leaflet for it, but that's not a bad effort, seeing as their local infrastructure has disintegrated. Zero Tory posters or stakeboards seen.
Greens throwing the kitchen sink at that by-election (and only there in the constituency. Targeting ruthlessly). The cheeky buggers are using our own tactics against us - "It's between our candidate and just another Lib Dem Councillor; the Tories can't win here." (A bit blase, seeing as it was neck and neck between us and the Tories in 2013 and 2017, and our majority over the Tories in 2021 wasn't that huge).
We've been canvassing and leafleting flat out (and that by-election came at a lousy time - we could have blitzed the county division, but our resources are all over the constituency at the moment. However, we've still been able to give it a reasonable amount of work, albeit the Greens have been very visible there as well). Orange diamonds everywhere - it's almost weird to see them all over the place. There's never before been a tradition of putting them up here. Apparently we're noticeably ahead of where Oxford West and Abingdon were in the past few elections, which is a bit eye-opening. It acts to underline the tactical voting push - when you see orange diamonds on so many of the roads around the place, it's much easier to argue we're a valid choice. It's frequently being mentioned on the doorstep (in a positive way, fortunately!). <2/2>
A Reform UK general election candidate described Adolf Hitler as “brilliant” and “able to inspire people to action” as part of a pseudoscientific theory that promotes 16 personality types.
Jack Aaron, who is standing against the incumbent Grant Shapps, the defence secretary, in Welwyn Hatfield, founded the World Socionics Society — a group promoting the theory.
However, in comments made online over the past four years he has described Hitler as “brilliant”, said President Assad, the Syrian dictator, was “gentle by nature” and that President Putin’s use of force in Ukraine was “legitimate”.
Reform is essentially a fascist party with a fascist leadership. Farage was called out as a racist who casually uses the n-word by the founder of UKIP, Alan Sked. AFAIK Farage has not attempted to sue him on this point. I have to wonder whether Putin-apologist-Farage saying that Sunak was "not a patriot" was actually a bit of dog whistle politics to emphasise Sunak's ethnicity rather than his ill-timed attendance at the D-Day commemoration.
Reform are fascists. It is time the media called them out as such
The difference between Reform and the Tories is how much they use a dog whistle. Think about the Southern Strategy, and Atwater's famous interview where he said:
By 1968 you can’t say [n-word]—that hurts you, backfires. So you say stuff like, uh, forced busing, states’ rights, and all that stuff, and you’re getting so abstract. Now, you’re talking about cutting taxes, and all these things you’re talking about are totally economic things and a byproduct of them is, blacks get hurt worse than whites.… “We want to cut this,” is much more abstract than even the busing thing, uh, and a hell of a lot more abstract than [n-word, n-word]
That is what the Tory party job is - finding the line of what you can and can't say whilst cutting the state to the bone. Remember "do you want a [n-word] for a neighbour"? That was the Tories not that long ago.
And the far right, like Farage, become popular because people who like the underlying message but are bored / don't hear the dog whistles prefer the real thing. Look at the likes of Rees Mogg and the NatCons - the whole family, flag and faith idea - is essentially one of the supremacy of white Christendom, where the only acceptable family is a cishet nuclear family with white babies. Rees Mogg is better at dog whistling in a way so he comes off as an aloof pseudo-Victorian. Farage and others in Reform don't bother.
A Reform UK general election candidate described Adolf Hitler as “brilliant” and “able to inspire people to action” as part of a pseudoscientific theory that promotes 16 personality types.
Jack Aaron, who is standing against the incumbent Grant Shapps, the defence secretary, in Welwyn Hatfield, founded the World Socionics Society — a group promoting the theory.
However, in comments made online over the past four years he has described Hitler as “brilliant”, said President Assad, the Syrian dictator, was “gentle by nature” and that President Putin’s use of force in Ukraine was “legitimate”.
Saying mass murderer Assad is "gentle by nature" is a notable take, too.
@Luckyguy1983 is quite right to observe they've scraped the very mucky bottom of the barrel to find their candidates.
The Assad comment suggests they've bought the Russian talking point subscription package (£13.99 per month, first 6 months free, comes with complimentary anti-vax starter pack).
When replying to posts there seems to be some kind of error saying that I'm 1 character too short to post.
On @Casino_Royale's position that the Labour lead is soft:
Labour's lead has eroded slightly - but I think there is a clear environment where even many Tory voters want to punish the party. For many people that just means not voting or voting Labour.
I know betting wise this isn't going to be very interesting, but I am interested to see if Labour gets a bigger % than 2017, and a bigger total number of votes. It's hilarious and stupid that we have a system where the current Labour party may get a Baathist majority on similar vote shares / total votes than 2017.
And the other thing is I think this is soft support for Labour's governing - not winning. I think the support to kill the Tory party is strong. The desire to see Starmerism, not so much.
The lead, as I say, is pretty constant. VI has dropped but the lead remains the same because so has the Conservatives'.
Yes and also it’s convenient for those in denial to ignore the tactical voting element. Thus when Labour’s vote share drops by 1% it’s obviously a sign that it’s “soft." Nothing to do with people being savvy enough to know for whom to vote in order to kick out the tories.
Anyway, driving through Woking today (not my car) and LibDem banners everywhere. This is now rock solid LibDem country.
I suspect Labour will win Sheffield Hallam at a gentle trot.
The one that really stands out there is Islington North: I suspect that (a) most voters in the constituency were actually Labour voters rather than Corbyn voters, and (b) you may well see the 2019 LD vote go for the Labour over Corbyn.
13/8 odds look very generous.
Corbyn is about to have his arse handed to him on a plate.
A Reform UK general election candidate described Adolf Hitler as “brilliant” and “able to inspire people to action” as part of a pseudoscientific theory that promotes 16 personality types.
Jack Aaron, who is standing against the incumbent Grant Shapps, the defence secretary, in Welwyn Hatfield, founded the World Socionics Society — a group promoting the theory.
However, in comments made online over the past four years he has described Hitler as “brilliant”, said President Assad, the Syrian dictator, was “gentle by nature” and that President Putin’s use of force in Ukraine was “legitimate”.
You wonder how many more of these will appear. I remain sceptical of any Reform takeover or merger with the Cons for exactly this sort of reason (that, and were I Tory myself, I would not particularly want to be making overtures to someone who is setting out to gut my party and use it as a host organism).
The Tory party are not without their own candidates and councillors with murky social media pasts, mind. (Nor, to be honest, the other parties especially when it comes to anti-semitic ravings).
It's ridiculous that we can't manufacture such lateral flow test kits domestically.
If you remember, the UK government did try to get UK companies to do this, and there were a load of issues with getting them to work properly and with the level of accuracy. Several UK companies early on claimed they had them working but the government labs analysed their performances and they just weren't accurate enough.
And that's before we talk about scale. The media and the public demanded we could all test all the time, there were twats demanding the ability to test more than once a day (on the government dime), so the scale required was off the charts. You can't just magic up mega production lines. We were going through insane amount of tests.
The huge mistake Boris made post-pandemic, they shut down the task force that was looking at UK's overdependence on China for crucial items.
I recall it very well. My point is that we got scammed by a US middleman (avoidably or not), and we've done nothing to prevent a future repeat. This isn't even particularly complicated tech.
"Verdict: I would be really surprised if the Tory vote held up enough to win even if Labour did lose more votes than normal to former MPs (and that’s typically a few thousand at most). On the other hand, The Spectator’s local producer thinks Vaz might storm home. Make of that what you will."
Fascinating Speccy article - especially drawing out the differences between different community groups.
Elsewise: I have just done today's YouGov (mostly about gambling). The usual VI questions have been joined by an additional question identifying the constituency I live in, listing the candidates by name and asking which one I will be voting for. Presumably this is something to do with verification against their MRP conclusions?
@Geri_E_L_Scott Excl: A Reform candidate described Adolf Hitler as “brilliant” and “able to inspire people to action” as part of a pseudoscientific theory that promotes 16 personality types.
RefUK should just brush this all off and keep going. They need to be the antidote to polished politics with plastic candidates with no personality. It has worked for Trump. The one thing I think they are doing wrong is trying to cancel the 'woke' left, they should rise above it and just say they believe in free speech, second chances, that kind of thing.
Everyone has said something stupid in their lives. All posters on here who have ever made an interesting contribution has said something a bit dodgy that could be spun out of context, particularly given how the zeitgeist has changed over the last 20 years.
Let's be honest, we'd all priced in a bit of Adolf for Reform.
It's silly though. I don't think Farage or Tice are like that, and I don't like Farage.
A Reform UK general election candidate described Adolf Hitler as “brilliant” and “able to inspire people to action” as part of a pseudoscientific theory that promotes 16 personality types.
Jack Aaron, who is standing against the incumbent Grant Shapps, the defence secretary, in Welwyn Hatfield, founded the World Socionics Society — a group promoting the theory.
However, in comments made online over the past four years he has described Hitler as “brilliant”, said President Assad, the Syrian dictator, was “gentle by nature” and that President Putin’s use of force in Ukraine was “legitimate”.
Reform is essentially a fascist party with a fascist leadership. Farage was called out as a racist who casually uses the n-word by the founder of UKIP, Alan Sked. AFAIK Farage has not attempted to sue him on this point. I have to wonder whether Putin-apologist-Farage saying that Sunak was "not a patriot" was actually a bit of dog whistle politics to emphasise Sunak's ethnicity rather than his ill-timed attendance at the D-Day commemoration.
Reform are fascists. It is time the media called them out as such
The difference between Reform and the Tories is how much they use a dog whistle. Think about the Southern Strategy, and Atwater's famous interview where he said:
By 1968 you can’t say [n-word]—that hurts you, backfires. So you say stuff like, uh, forced busing, states’ rights, and all that stuff, and you’re getting so abstract. Now, you’re talking about cutting taxes, and all these things you’re talking about are totally economic things and a byproduct of them is, blacks get hurt worse than whites.… “We want to cut this,” is much more abstract than even the busing thing, uh, and a hell of a lot more abstract than [n-word, n-word]
That is what the Tory party job is - finding the line of what you can and can't say whilst cutting the state to the bone. Remember "do you want a [n-word] for a neighbour"? That was the Tories not that long ago.
And the far right, like Farage, become popular because people who like the underlying message but are bored / don't hear the dog whistles prefer the real thing. Look at the likes of Rees Mogg and the NatCons - the whole family, flag and faith idea - is essentially one of the supremacy of white Christendom, where the only acceptable family is a cishet nuclear family with white babies. Rees Mogg is better at dog whistling in a way so he comes off as an aloof pseudo-Victorian. Farage and others in Reform don't bother.
There are plenty of racists and sexists in the Labour/trade union movement (with large amounts of anti-semitism), so trying to equate the Conservatives with the obvious odiousness of Reform by referring to stupidities of yesteryear make you look very foolishly partisan. There are idiots in the Conservative Party and the Labour Party, but neither are a fascist party by any stretch. My contention is that Reform most definitely are.
When replying to posts there seems to be some kind of error saying that I'm 1 character too short to post.
It is a Vanilla bug that always interprets the "less than" symbol or < as the start of an html tag, which because it is never closed, swallows the rest of the message and your reply, leaving 0 characters which is one too short. When you get this error, look for something like Labour will win <600 seats in the message you have quoted.
Often the best thing to do is delete everything and then type 'purge' and post. We will all know what that means!
It's ridiculous that we can't manufacture such lateral flow test kits domestically.
Of course it's neither here nor there to the UK gov't whether or not Innova's profits generated at the expense of the UK taxpayer sit in the company retained profits account or are spent on big houses and private jets. The damage is already done.
When replying to posts there seems to be some kind of error saying that I'm 1 character too short to post.
On @Casino_Royale's position that the Labour lead is soft:
Labour's lead has eroded slightly - but I think there is a clear environment where even many Tory voters want to punish the party. For many people that just means not voting or voting Labour.
I know betting wise this isn't going to be very interesting, but I am interested to see if Labour gets a bigger % than 2017, and a bigger total number of votes. It's hilarious and stupid that we have a system where the current Labour party may get a Baathist majority on similar vote shares / total votes than 2017.
And the other thing is I think this is soft support for Labour's governing - not winning. I think the support to kill the Tory party is strong. The desire to see Starmerism, not so much.
I don't think the country is keen for any "ism" at this juncture. This is one reason for the coming SKS landslide.
But the thing is once he is in government there will be an ism. There is no such thing as "common sense" "non ideological" governance.
There can be (largely) non ideological governance (for better or worse) if the decision makers are not particularly ideological. Not completely but relatively, as compared to being driven by some grand, overarching, world-explaining belief system.
"Common sense" though, lol, yes that's a red flag in politics. It usually means trite and simplistic.
It's ridiculous that we can't manufacture such lateral flow test kits domestically.
If you remember, the UK government did try to get UK companies to do this, and there were a load of issues with getting them to work properly and with the level of accuracy. Several UK companies early on claimed they had them working but the government labs analysed their performances and they just weren't accurate enough.
And that's before we talk about scale. The media and the public demanded we could all test all the time, there were twats demanding the ability to test more than once a day (on the government dime), so the scale required was off the charts. You can't just magic up mega production lines. We were going through insane amount of tests.
The huge mistake Boris made post-pandemic, they shut down the task force that was looking at UK's overdependence on China for crucial items.
I recall it very well. My point is that we got scammed by a US middleman (avoidably or not), and we've done nothing to prevent a future repeat. This isn't even particularly complicated tech.
As I said, shutting down the taskforce on trying to make ourselves less dependent on China was a big misstep. Its just easier to keep importing absolutely everything from China, price of everything, value of nothing. When it comes to certain things, it isn't about the lowest possible price.
Best for Britains tactical voting guide is out. I've just been scanning through. A few surprises (it says vote Labour in Southam and Kenilworth but my parents who live there are convinced the Lib Dems are the main challengers after the council elections - perhaps @SouthamObserver can opine), but most are as expected.
And that makes it four out of four of the tactical voting websites that come up on the first page of a google search (using my one image per day on this):
My current take is that we're (Lib Dems) ahead at the moment, but taking absolutely nothing for granted.
The Tory vote is very quiet indeed. D-day has really pissed people off. Quite a lot are coming over directly. Others are, as described by a volunteer down from London over the weekend in the pub after canvassing, "Lib-Dem-curious" and willing to take leaflets and ask questions. I suspect many will simply not vote at all.
I think we have an advantage over Labour there that it feels less of a jump to cross over to us rather than straight to Labour (the memories of the Corbyn era are still pretty strong amongst people less invested day-to-day in politics than ourselves)
Olly's name recognition is remarkably good. It's reminiscent of the way Layla's name was recognised on the doorstep in OxWAb in 2017. This has certainly been helped by the fact we've been getting out leaflets at least once a month over the past year and a bit, especially in Didcot town itself (Olly ramped up efforts in Didcot town itself early on and has been methodically doubling down on that). <1/2>
Well, Best for Britain have now told me to vote Labour in Newton Abbot, whilst tactical.vote are saying vote LibDem (although theirs is only based on previous). Meanwhile tacticalvote.co.uk haven’t made up their minds.
It's ridiculous that we can't manufacture such lateral flow test kits domestically.
If you remember, the UK government did try to get UK companies to do this, and there were a load of issues with getting them to work properly and with the level of accuracy. Several UK companies early on claimed they had them working but the government labs analysed their performances and they just weren't accurate enough.
And that's before we talk about scale. The media and the public demanded we could all test all the time, there were twats demanding the ability to test more than once a day (on the government dime), so the scale required was off the charts. You can't just magic up mega production lines. We were going through insane amount of tests.
The huge mistake Boris made post-pandemic, they shut down the task force that was looking at UK's overdependence on China for crucial items.
I recall it very well. My point is that we got scammed by a US middleman (avoidably or not), and we've done nothing to prevent a future repeat. This isn't even particularly complicated tech.
As I said, shutting down the taskforce on trying to make ourselves less dependent on China was a big misstep. Its just easier to keep importing absolutely everything from China, cost of everything, value of nothing.
Though I'd still be encouraging China to build a battery factory here, if it came to it. We should learn from what they did to western manufacturing a couple of decades back, and get them to set up over here to learnt their manufacturing tech - which in batteries is as good, if not better than anyone's. We're currently nowhere.
Best for Britains tactical voting guide is out. I've just been scanning through. A few surprises (it says vote Labour in Southam and Kenilworth but my parents who live there are convinced the Lib Dems are the main challengers after the council elections - perhaps @SouthamObserver can opine), but most are as expected.
And that makes it four out of four of the tactical voting websites that come up on the first page of a google search (using my one image per day on this):
My current take is that we're (Lib Dems) ahead at the moment, but taking absolutely nothing for granted.
The Tory vote is very quiet indeed. D-day has really pissed people off. Quite a lot are coming over directly. Others are, as described by a volunteer down from London over the weekend in the pub after canvassing, "Lib-Dem-curious" and willing to take leaflets and ask questions. I suspect many will simply not vote at all.
I think we have an advantage over Labour there that it feels less of a jump to cross over to us rather than straight to Labour (the memories of the Corbyn era are still pretty strong amongst people less invested day-to-day in politics than ourselves)
Olly's name recognition is remarkably good. It's reminiscent of the way Layla's name was recognised on the doorstep in OxWAb in 2017. This has certainly been helped by the fact we've been getting out leaflets at least once a month over the past year and a bit, especially in Didcot town itself (Olly ramped up efforts in Didcot town itself early on and has been methodically doubling down on that). <1/2>
I've just signed up with a vote swapping thing. Who knows whether it's just a mailing list farm or what, but hopefully someone will put a tick in the box I'd like to, but won't.
More in Common latest 🆕Our latest @moreincommon_ voting intention poll finds it’s all steady & Labour keep a 16 pt lead over the Conservatives 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🔴 LAB 41% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 11% (+1) 🟣 REF UK 14% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(- 1) Dates 14-16/6, N=2,369
I mean, that was one example - but we could talk about which party supported apartheid South Africa, which party student wing had posters saying "Hang Nelson Mandela", which party ramped up the anti immigration fervour (yes Windrush started under Labour, and Blair started the language of "legitimate asylum seekers" - but mostly to appease Tories). Hug a hoodie Cameron wanted to make the party out as more modern - but even looking to Boris Johnson we can look at the kind of views common in the Tory Party - a man writing about black people with "watermelon smiles" and using terms like "picaninnies". For Johnson it was a part of his characterisation that he also didn't always use the dog whistle - and that's why some people liked him.
Best for Britains tactical voting guide is out. I've just been scanning through. A few surprises (it says vote Labour in Southam and Kenilworth but my parents who live there are convinced the Lib Dems are the main challengers after the council elections - perhaps @SouthamObserver can opine), but most are as expected.
And that makes it four out of four of the tactical voting websites that come up on the first page of a google search (using my one image per day on this):
My current take is that we're (Lib Dems) ahead at the moment, but taking absolutely nothing for granted.
The Tory vote is very quiet indeed. D-day has really pissed people off. Quite a lot are coming over directly. Others are, as described by a volunteer down from London over the weekend in the pub after canvassing, "Lib-Dem-curious" and willing to take leaflets and ask questions. I suspect many will simply not vote at all.
I think we have an advantage over Labour there that it feels less of a jump to cross over to us rather than straight to Labour (the memories of the Corbyn era are still pretty strong amongst people less invested day-to-day in politics than ourselves)
Olly's name recognition is remarkably good. It's reminiscent of the way Layla's name was recognised on the doorstep in OxWAb in 2017. This has certainly been helped by the fact we've been getting out leaflets at least once a month over the past year and a bit, especially in Didcot town itself (Olly ramped up efforts in Didcot town itself early on and has been methodically doubling down on that). <1/2>
Well, Best for Britain have now told me to vote Labour in Newton Abbot, whilst tactical.vote are saying vote LibDem (although theirs is only based on previous). Meanwhile tacticalvote.co.uk haven’t made up their minds.
Comments
On @Casino_Royale's position that the Labour lead is soft:
Labour's lead has eroded slightly - but I think there is a clear environment where even many Tory voters want to punish the party. For many people that just means not voting or voting Labour.
I know betting wise this isn't going to be very interesting, but I am interested to see if Labour gets a bigger % than 2017, and a bigger total number of votes. It's hilarious and stupid that we have a system where the current Labour party may get a Baathist majority on similar vote shares / total votes than 2017.
And the other thing is I think this is soft support for Labour's governing - not winning. I think the support to kill the Tory party is strong. The desire to see Starmerism, not so much.
https://taxpolicy.org.uk/2024/06/17/reform_uk_manifesto_2024
Everyone has said something stupid in their lives. All posters on here who have ever made an interesting contribution has said something a bit dodgy that could be spun out of context, particularly given how the zeitgeist has changed over the last 20 years.
‘Punk’ former BrewDog boss launches app for social media influencers. Social Tip could turn anyone into an online personality by simply posting reviews
They've got my vote!!
This is political betting site. This is basic stuff.
I supplied one of these to one of my tenants, who is 7x years old, where it was impossible for me to install a shower seat as we did at home for mum. 9 months later the tenants are happy with it. It is robust.
I fitted it across the wide section of a shower-bath. A snug fit of the adjustable part to the bath width is the important aspect, as the main H&S risk which has to be managed is it slipping sideways and falling down whilst you are sitting on it. The important point is to prevent any cross-bath movement.
The alternative would be to have ripped the bathroom out to install a walk-in shower, which since I do good bathrooms in my rentals I was not too keen on only 6 years after refurb.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/B07KSHC1RX
(If you want to nerd on Accessible Ablutions, I wrote a series of 6 articles for a self-build forum when we did adaptions at home for mum. Link on request ! )
Far more pressing priorities, and far more promising investments exist.
With the Lib Dems 'back', and Reform having a serious go on the right, this is pretty much the first four party election.
I'd say Labour above 40 would be quite the achievement. We could well be breaking a record for a new floor, considering the Tories lowpoint in the last 100 years was 31.5%.
If Labour win, sure he's part of the winning team, but not an MP.
Unless he stands in a by-election he's out of Parliament until 2028 at the earliest, when he'll be 63.
David Miliband was Labour's bright young thing in 2007/08 but after his defeat in 2010 and then running off to leave the country there's no chance he'll be back in frontline politics now.
Especially if his brother is Business Secretary after this.
That said some of those fuckers would be Trump/Putin so they can fuck right off.
Coming from the crime-ridden city of Chicago, Michelle Obama has more experience than most of us with violent crime. And that, no doubt, also helps explain why she and Barack chose not to live in Chicago, after his presidency. Even with Secret Service protection.
I went into this election assuming that the grey vote would pile in behind the Tories and rescue them, but there's no meaningful sign of it yet.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/us-politics/joe-biden-health-freeze-age-us-president-election-campaign-donald-trump-video-b1164759.html
Albeit on differing priorities (To put it mildly) the Greens and Reform both appear ready to spend like drunken sailors. Inflation would surely go up mahoosively if either were in charge.
Perhaps SKS is the best bet for rate cuts...
So maybe it's not a "change" election after all.
So if you fancy backing Labour in a constituency market at odds of 1/7, here's an alternative offering easy money (informed by a not inconsiderable bit of local knowledge thrown in.) Wolverhampton West. The Conservatives are defending a majority over Labour of under 2% from 2019. Looks absolutely nailed on for Labour. The sitting Tory MP has done the chicken run. Labour has a local candidate who's spent his whole life in the area. He's a Sikh in the seat with the highest proportion of Sikh's in the UK, a seat in which Labour has never had a Sikh parliamentary candidate before. And while they haven't quite given up entirely, the Tories are putting on a pretty nominal campaign only.
If the Conservatives win in Wolverhampton West, the Conservatives will be on course to win most seats, a market on which you can get 50/1. That shows how nailed on Wolverhampton West is for Labour. 1/7 on is great value.
For Biden, I'd be seeing if he does fact-based rebuttals if Mr Trump repeats any of the outright lies from his one stump speech.
In the 1997-2010 era, left of centre tactical voting was real, and it was pretty awful for the Conservatives. In the immediate post-coalition period, tactical voting dried up.
I think - for 2024 - it's back.
And voting efficiency matters, and on anything that looked like the JLP poll, I would expect a Labour majority of at least 125, because that's what a gap of 17 percentage points over your nearest competitor is going to yield.
This election looks like 1983 in reverse to me, with the Conservatives and Reform playing the roles of the Labour Party and the Alliance.
The unadjusted number, with DKs excluded, is:
Lab 43%
Con 21%
Reform 16%
LD 10%
Green 5%
Whether Tory and Reform voters are more motivated to turn out than Labour and LibDem ones and whether DKs will break Tory and Reform is a judgement call. Given where we are in the campaign, I might buy it for Reform. I am not sure I do for the Tories.
EDIT - having checked the term officially ended the following day, 13 December, but classes had long finished for Christmas.
The Lib Dem -2 suggests that it might be a bit skewed too, and all those changes are margin of error.
Jack Aaron, who is standing against the incumbent Grant Shapps, the defence secretary, in Welwyn Hatfield, founded the World Socionics Society — a group promoting the theory.
However, in comments made online over the past four years he has described Hitler as “brilliant”, said President Assad, the Syrian dictator, was “gentle by nature” and that President Putin’s use of force in Ukraine was “legitimate”.
https://www.thetimes.com/article/reform-uk-candidate-jack-aaron-hitler-al-assad-cndwsfjdt
As I was saying ...
<would fix it then, as in your post.If it's an attempt to emulate David Cameron then yes, but 'anyone' [1] can do that.
Neil Kinnock could be brought back on 5th July as Chancellor if Starmer really wanted.
[1] By anyone, I mean anyone the incumbent Prime Minister wants to have a senior cabinet job.
Personally, I would like to see the Conservatives out of power for a long time, so they can go and sit in the naughty corner and think about what they've done to piss off most of the electorate, and come back with some new centre-right, pro-business, socially liberal policies.
But there is a big danger that the rump Conservatives shift even further rightwards and end up in coalition or being reverse taken over by the Fashy Loon Party. If you think a vote for the Conservatives reduces that possibility, then it's a reason to vote for them. Unfortunately, I think they'll just take it as an endorsement of their current direction and keep going further towards the illiberal Reform right anyway, so they will not be getting my vote.
@Luckyguy1983 is quite right to observe they've scraped the very mucky bottom of the barrel to find their candidates.
Reform are fascists. It is time the media called them out as such
Boss of US firm given £4bn in UK Covid contracts accused of squandering millions on jets and properties
https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/17/boss-us-firm-uk-covid-contracts-accused-squandering-millions-on-jets-properties
It's ridiculous that we can't manufacture such lateral flow test kits domestically.
Where are Biden's skates? Why are they never on his feet? What are they hiding?
And that's before we talk about scale. The media and the public demanded we could all test all the time, there were twats demanding the ability to test more than once a day (on the government dime), so the scale required was off the charts. You can't just magic up mega production lines. We were going through insane amount of tests.
The huge mistake Boris made post-pandemic, they shut down the task force that was looking at UK's overdependence on China for crucial items.
Con 25-27%
Lab 37-29 (perhaps just sneaking 40%)
However I would note that JLP and Opinium have had the narrowest Labour leads, along with MiC. That doesn’t mean they’re wrong.
Not clear how much of that is pre-existing Tice policy as opposed to Farage policy. But I think it will blunt their firepower. It's not as regressive financially as the Tory manifesto but it also doesn't imply things like the NHS and social care being fixed are a priority. Makes it easier for Labour, Greens and Lib Dems to point to them and say they're just like the Tories.
My current take is that we're (Lib Dems) ahead at the moment, but taking absolutely nothing for granted.
The Tory vote is very quiet indeed. D-day has really pissed people off. Quite a lot are coming over directly. Others are, as described by a volunteer down from London over the weekend in the pub after canvassing, "Lib-Dem-curious" and willing to take leaflets and ask questions. I suspect many will simply not vote at all.
I think we have an advantage over Labour there that it feels less of a jump to cross over to us rather than straight to Labour (the memories of the Corbyn era are still pretty strong amongst people less invested day-to-day in politics than ourselves)
Olly's name recognition is remarkably good. It's reminiscent of the way Layla's name was recognised on the doorstep in OxWAb in 2017. This has certainly been helped by the fact we've been getting out leaflets at least once a month over the past year and a bit, especially in Didcot town itself (Olly ramped up efforts in Didcot town itself early on and has been methodically doubling down on that).
<1/2>
That's an attractive policy.
Less so the other stuff although their previous utterances on net zero have not been climate denial, they say we need to do out part, and they have advocated an expansion of Nuclear power.
Tory campaign near-invisible - we've had one Tory GE leaflet through the post, and Johnston is getting bad press wherever he tries anything (huge bad press over a Sunak visit with him to a local school where the parents were up in arms about being told they kids were "meeting a local celebrity." They did not like this, comments about the Tories trying to use their kids for PR and them missing lessons - it made the Oxford Mail). One further leaflet on the by-election: there's a double-header by-election for county council and district council on Thursday this week and a perennial Tory candidate is out and about leafleting for that (well, we got one leaflet for it, but that's not a bad effort, seeing as their local infrastructure has disintegrated. Zero Tory posters or stakeboards seen.
Greens throwing the kitchen sink at that by-election (and only there in the constituency. Targeting ruthlessly). The cheeky buggers are using our own tactics against us - "It's between our candidate and just another Lib Dem Councillor; the Tories can't win here." (A bit blase, seeing as it was neck and neck between us and the Tories in 2013 and 2017, and our majority over the Tories in 2021 wasn't that huge).
We've been canvassing and leafleting flat out (and that by-election came at a lousy time - we could have blitzed the county division, but our resources are all over the constituency at the moment. However, we've still been able to give it a reasonable amount of work, albeit the Greens have been very visible there as well). Orange diamonds everywhere - it's almost weird to see them all over the place. There's never before been a tradition of putting them up here. Apparently we're noticeably ahead of where Oxford West and Abingdon were in the past few elections, which is a bit eye-opening. It acts to underline the tactical voting push - when you see orange diamonds on so many of the roads around the place, it's much easier to argue we're a valid choice. It's frequently being mentioned on the doorstep (in a positive way, fortunately!).
<2/2>
By 1968 you can’t say [n-word]—that hurts you, backfires. So you say stuff like, uh, forced busing, states’ rights, and all that stuff, and you’re getting so abstract. Now, you’re talking about cutting taxes, and all these things you’re talking about are totally economic things and a byproduct of them is, blacks get hurt worse than whites.… “We want to cut this,” is much more abstract than even the busing thing, uh, and a hell of a lot more abstract than [n-word, n-word]
That is what the Tory party job is - finding the line of what you can and can't say whilst cutting the state to the bone. Remember "do you want a [n-word] for a neighbour"? That was the Tories not that long ago.
And the far right, like Farage, become popular because people who like the underlying message but are bored / don't hear the dog whistles prefer the real thing. Look at the likes of Rees Mogg and the NatCons - the whole family, flag and faith idea - is essentially one of the supremacy of white Christendom, where the only acceptable family is a cishet nuclear family with white babies. Rees Mogg is better at dog whistling in a way so he comes off as an aloof pseudo-Victorian. Farage and others in Reform don't bother.
Anyway, driving through Woking today (not my car) and LibDem banners everywhere. This is now rock solid LibDem country.
My point is that we got scammed by a US middleman (avoidably or not), and we've done nothing to prevent a future repeat. This isn't even particularly complicated tech.
Fascinating Speccy article - especially drawing out the differences between different community groups.
Elsewise: I have just done today's YouGov (mostly about gambling). The usual VI questions have been joined by an additional question identifying the constituency I live in, listing the candidates by name and asking which one I will be voting for. Presumably this is something to do with verification against their MRP conclusions?
That was one Conservative, 59 years ago.
It's silly though. I don't think Farage or Tice are like that, and I don't like Farage.
"Common sense" though, lol, yes that's a red flag in politics. It usually means trite and simplistic.
https://www.getvoting.org/constituency/E14001381
@TimS
I can’t remember who the other pb’er is who lives in my constituency?
We should learn from what they did to western manufacturing a couple of decades back, and get them to set up over here to learnt their manufacturing tech - which in batteries is as good, if not better than anyone's.
We're currently nowhere.
🆕Our latest @moreincommon_ voting intention poll finds it’s all steady & Labour keep a 16 pt lead over the Conservatives
🔵 CON 25% (-)
🔴 LAB 41% (-)
🟠 LIB DEM 11% (+1)
🟣 REF UK 14% (+1)
🟢 GRN 5% (-)
🟡 SNP 2%(- 1)
Dates 14-16/6, N=2,369