More in Common latest 🆕Our latest @moreincommon_ voting intention poll finds it’s all steady & Labour keep a 16 pt lead over the Conservatives 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🔴 LAB 41% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 11% (+1) 🟣 REF UK 14% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(- 1) Dates 14-16/6, N=2,369
I think More in Common is the only pollster currently that has the Tories as high as 25.
Yep, 24 with focaldata and survation mrp, 23 with survation phone, ipsos, opinium, JL Partners
When replying to posts there seems to be some kind of error saying that I'm 1 character too short to post.
On @Casino_Royale's position that the Labour lead is soft:
Labour's lead has eroded slightly - but I think there is a clear environment where even many Tory voters want to punish the party. For many people that just means not voting or voting Labour.
I know betting wise this isn't going to be very interesting, but I am interested to see if Labour gets a bigger % than 2017, and a bigger total number of votes. It's hilarious and stupid that we have a system where the current Labour party may get a Baathist majority on similar vote shares / total votes than 2017.
And the other thing is I think this is soft support for Labour's governing - not winning. I think the support to kill the Tory party is strong. The desire to see Starmerism, not so much.
I don't think the country is keen for any "ism" at this juncture. This is one reason for the coming SKS landslide.
But the thing is once he is in government there will be an ism. There is no such thing as "common sense" "non ideological" governance.
There can be (largely) non ideological governance (for better or worse) if the decision makers are not particularly ideological. Not completely but relatively, as compared to being driven by some grand, overarching, world-explaining belief system.
"Common sense" though, lol, yes that's a red flag in politics. It usually means trite and simplistic.
Ideology is simply unavoidable. The stuff of common ground we take for granted - free NHS, a welfare state, expensive defence, pensions, free education of a certain sort to 18, free(ish) speech, no religious compulsion, minimise animal cruelty, consent is essential in sexual relations, slavery is always wrong, as is torture, same sex relationships lawful - are all profoundly ideological. This is not thought so for the same reasons that fish are unaware of water.
None exist in our form in all places at all times.
We've moved on a long way from that. I think sometimes we forget about how long people live and how rapidly things change. My dad is 85, born just before the second world war. He was born into a country that was very very different to todays. Very few non-white people lived here in 1939. Homosexuality was illegal, and suppressed (although of course it always 'went on'). There was no NHS (which is NOT the same as saying that there was no healthcare). Kids left school at 14. Very few went to university.
In 2024 we have much more diverse population (notably so in the cities, less so in rural parts). Homosexuality is no longer illegal and widely accepted, as is same sex marriage etc. Nearly half of all kids go to University were they (hopefully) mingle with all races, genders, political thought etc. Its no wonder that older folk fail to agree with the youth - they were raised in different times.
Some like to say that science advances with every funeral (or similar). Often older academics can reject more modern theories (although I suspect its less common than the archetype). I think its a bit true for society too. Some people form views very early and never change (Corbyn, Farage seem equal and opposing examples). Others move with the times.
I struggle with transgenderism. I'm open about this. I cannot imagine what it must be like to think that you are a different gender to what you body presents. I don't think that there is anyway that a trans person can ever fully transition. But I also think they disserve compassion and respect like anyone else.
Enjoying these threads. My view is that the best value second place challenger to Lab of any of these is Lib Dem in Sheffield Hallam, who I think benefit massively from Tory>Lib Dem switchers and from "Lab will win anyway so we can vote for who we like - not who we want to keep out".
It's ridiculous that we can't manufacture such lateral flow test kits domestically.
Of course it's neither here nor there to the UK gov't whether or not Innova's profits generated at the expense of the UK taxpayer sit in the company retained profits account or are spent on big houses and private jets. The damage is already done.
That's the headline. Some of the detail in the article is more interesting.
Note that, given the large number of such kits available relatively early in the pandemic, we didn't make very good use of them until much later on. "Track and trace" ended up being a huge waste of resources, which could have been terminated much earlier, in favour of (almost free in comparison) home testing.
I suspect Labour will win Sheffield Hallam at a gentle trot.
The one that really stands out there is Islington North: I suspect that (a) most voters in the constituency were actually Labour voters rather than Corbyn voters, and (b) you may well see the 2019 LD vote go for the Labour over Corbyn.
13/8 odds look very generous.
Corbyn is about to have his arse handed to him on a plate.
I mean, that was one example - but we could talk about which party supported apartheid South Africa, which party student wing had posters saying "Hang Nelson Mandela", which party ramped up the anti immigration fervour (yes Windrush started under Labour, and Blair started the language of "legitimate asylum seekers" - but mostly to appease Tories). Hug a hoodie Cameron wanted to make the party out as more modern - but even looking to Boris Johnson we can look at the kind of views common in the Tory Party - a man writing about black people with "watermelon smiles" and using terms like "picaninnies". For Johnson it was a part of his characterisation that he also didn't always use the dog whistle - and that's why some people liked him.
Well, if we're flinging mud, we might want to consider left wing antisemitism, or the readiness of Corbyn and those close to him to offer support to horrible regimes and movements.
When it came to deportations, Blair was appeasing a lot of his party's own voters.
A Reform UK general election candidate described Adolf Hitler as “brilliant” and “able to inspire people to action” as part of a pseudoscientific theory that promotes 16 personality types.
Jack Aaron, who is standing against the incumbent Grant Shapps, the defence secretary, in Welwyn Hatfield, founded the World Socionics Society — a group promoting the theory.
However, in comments made online over the past four years he has described Hitler as “brilliant”, said President Assad, the Syrian dictator, was “gentle by nature” and that President Putin’s use of force in Ukraine was “legitimate”.
You wonder how many more of these will appear. I remain sceptical of any Reform takeover or merger with the Cons for exactly this sort of reason (that, and were I Tory myself, I would not particularly want to be making overtures to someone who is setting out to gut my party and use it as a host organism).
This website has some disturbing content, starting with a "personality type analysis" of Nelson Mandela.
When replying to posts there seems to be some kind of error saying that I'm 1 character too short to post.
On @Casino_Royale's position that the Labour lead is soft:
Labour's lead has eroded slightly - but I think there is a clear environment where even many Tory voters want to punish the party. For many people that just means not voting or voting Labour.
I know betting wise this isn't going to be very interesting, but I am interested to see if Labour gets a bigger % than 2017, and a bigger total number of votes. It's hilarious and stupid that we have a system where the current Labour party may get a Baathist majority on similar vote shares / total votes than 2017.
And the other thing is I think this is soft support for Labour's governing - not winning. I think the support to kill the Tory party is strong. The desire to see Starmerism, not so much.
I don't think the country is keen for any "ism" at this juncture. This is one reason for the coming SKS landslide.
But the thing is once he is in government there will be an ism. There is no such thing as "common sense" "non ideological" governance.
There can be (largely) non ideological governance (for better or worse) if the decision makers are not particularly ideological. Not completely but relatively, as compared to being driven by some grand, overarching, world-explaining belief system.
"Common sense" though, lol, yes that's a red flag in politics. It usually means trite and simplistic.
Sorry - I disagree. There is always an ideology. There isn't a non ideological way to view the world, let alone be in the world of politics. Even those people that argue "people just want competency from their government" have an ideology - competency at doing what, for who, in what way, etc. The things you value is about ideology, the method of delivery will be tinged by ideology, what you think is "best" will be based on ideology. There is no giant brained "non ideological" take.
I mean, that was one example - but we could talk about which party supported apartheid South Africa, which party student wing had posters saying "Hang Nelson Mandela", which party ramped up the anti immigration fervour (yes Windrush started under Labour, and Blair started the language of "legitimate asylum seekers" - but mostly to appease Tories). Hug a hoodie Cameron wanted to make the party out as more modern - but even looking to Boris Johnson we can look at the kind of views common in the Tory Party - a man writing about black people with "watermelon smiles" and using terms like "picaninnies". For Johnson it was a part of his characterisation that he also didn't always use the dog whistle - and that's why some people liked him.
The Tory student thing is true, but the canard that the Tory Party "supported" apartheid, as opposed to not doing enough to end it, has to die. Macmillan's winds of change speech led to SA walking out of the Commonwealth and even Mandela was quoted as saying Thatcher was an enemy of apartheid on a number of occasions.
I will agree that in the 80s Reagan and Thatcher were so hung up on the Soviet threat they soft soaped the apartheid government too much. But that is not the same thing as supporting it.
I mean, that was one example - but we could talk about which party supported apartheid South Africa, which party student wing had posters saying "Hang Nelson Mandela", which party ramped up the anti immigration fervour (yes Windrush started under Labour, and Blair started the language of "legitimate asylum seekers" - but mostly to appease Tories). Hug a hoodie Cameron wanted to make the party out as more modern - but even looking to Boris Johnson we can look at the kind of views common in the Tory Party - a man writing about black people with "watermelon smiles" and using terms like "picaninnies". For Johnson it was a part of his characterisation that he also didn't always use the dog whistle - and that's why some people liked him.
Assuming you are a labour supporter I give you recent Labour leader and anti-Semitic mural excusing Jeremy Corbyn and the Momentum group. Racism against Jews is presumably OK, because *they* "don't understand irony", and as Diane Abbott said, (whom has not quite been expelled by Labour -dither dither) Jewish people suffer the same type of discrimination as people with red hair. Try telling that to any descendant of the holocaust or someone who lost a loved one to Hamas. But to many in the Labour Party Jews do not count. Certain types of racism are still rife in the Labour Party. Starmer has simply brushed it under the mat.
More in Common latest 🆕Our latest @moreincommon_ voting intention poll finds it’s all steady & Labour keep a 16 pt lead over the Conservatives 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🔴 LAB 41% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 11% (+1) 🟣 REF UK 14% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(- 1) Dates 14-16/6, N=2,369
The polls aren't moving, but there are big differences between different polls in particular the Tory number. Its anywhere from really terrible night for the Tories to utter destruction.
You only need a 4% swing from these figures to reach the same ones in 2010 with the parties reversed, roughly 37% and 29%.
I mean, that was one example - but we could talk about which party supported apartheid South Africa, which party student wing had posters saying "Hang Nelson Mandela", which party ramped up the anti immigration fervour (yes Windrush started under Labour, and Blair started the language of "legitimate asylum seekers" - but mostly to appease Tories). Hug a hoodie Cameron wanted to make the party out as more modern - but even looking to Boris Johnson we can look at the kind of views common in the Tory Party - a man writing about black people with "watermelon smiles" and using terms like "picaninnies". For Johnson it was a part of his characterisation that he also didn't always use the dog whistle - and that's why some people liked him.
Well, if we're flinging mud, we might want to consider left wing antisemitism, or the readiness of Corbyn and those close to him to offer support to horrible regimes and movements.
I've had long discussions here about left wing antisemitism, and how some of it is the "socialism of fools" and some of it is just criticism of Israel that people erroneously and, arguably with an end in mind, equate to being antisemitic. Interestingly no one seems really interested in the antisemitism of non-Jewish Zionists, like Luke Akehurst, who has spoken at length about who is a "real" Jewish person and who isn't - claiming that anti-Zionist Jewish people aren't "really" Jewish.
@Geri_E_L_Scott Excl: A Reform candidate described Adolf Hitler as “brilliant” and “able to inspire people to action” as part of a pseudoscientific theory that promotes 16 personality types.
RefUK should just brush this all off and keep going. They need to be the antidote to polished politics with plastic candidates with no personality. It has worked for Trump. The one thing I think they are doing wrong is trying to cancel the 'woke' left, they should rise above it and just say they believe in free speech, second chances, that kind of thing.
Everyone has said something stupid in their lives. All posters on here who have ever made an interesting contribution has said something a bit dodgy that could be spun out of context, particularly given how the zeitgeist has changed over the last 20 years.
Let's be honest, we'd all priced in a bit of Adolf for Reform.
It's silly though. I don't think Farage or Tice are like that, and I don't like Farage.
They just hate foreigners a bit, but they wouldn't take it as far as Hitler did?
More in Common latest 🆕Our latest @moreincommon_ voting intention poll finds it’s all steady & Labour keep a 16 pt lead over the Conservatives 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🔴 LAB 41% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 11% (+1) 🟣 REF UK 14% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(- 1) Dates 14-16/6, N=2,369
I think More in Common is the only pollster currently that has the Tories as high as 25.
That MIC poll chimes most closely with my vibes-based assumptions about where the polls really are. Well maybe except SNP: I think they'll do much better than they might have feared.
It's ridiculous that we can't manufacture such lateral flow test kits domestically.
Of course it's neither here nor there to the UK gov't whether or not Innova's profits generated at the expense of the UK taxpayer sit in the company retained profits account or are spent on big houses and private jets. The damage is already done.
That's the headline. Some of the detail in the article is more interesting.
Note that, given the large number of such kits available relatively early in the pandemic, we didn't make very good use of them until much later on. "Track and trace" ended up being a huge waste of resources, which could have been terminated much earlier, in favour of (almost free in comparison) home testing.
Part of the problem is do you remember when people came back from summer holidays and you couldn't get a test spot within 5 minutes of your house for a couple of days, there were nearly riots. When they finally withdrew free lateral flow tests, there was unbelievable amount of screaming from every quarter.
The vast majority of the public wanted to be lockdowns, test every day, etc etc etc. The media and the public wouldn't accept some sort of sensible comprises. When Boris took the right decision on omnicron, the reaction was again he is killing grannies. The official advice and unofficial pressure groups / media was always its still too dangerous, zero covid, etc.
A Reform UK general election candidate described Adolf Hitler as “brilliant” and “able to inspire people to action” as part of a pseudoscientific theory that promotes 16 personality types.
Jack Aaron, who is standing against the incumbent Grant Shapps, the defence secretary, in Welwyn Hatfield, founded the World Socionics Society — a group promoting the theory.
However, in comments made online over the past four years he has described Hitler as “brilliant”, said President Assad, the Syrian dictator, was “gentle by nature” and that President Putin’s use of force in Ukraine was “legitimate”.
I'm feeling jealous of all these people seeing election billboards and posters all over the place. I've only seen two anywhere all campaign here or anywhere else- one on the local Labour Party HQ, and one (well, lots) on the local Conservative Party HQ. Though my daughter tells me the Tories have now got some of their billboards out in their usual spots over the weekend - I just haven't been that way since Saturday morning.
Also for the first time ever the first leaflet and personal letter from the Tory Candidate arrived after I'd already voted, which suggest a lack of volunteers compared to previous elections despite being under more pressure this time than since taking the seat back in 2001.
Still nothing from Labour since they canvassed my house last week, or from Reform (or the others, but I wouldn't expect anything).
When replying to posts there seems to be some kind of error saying that I'm 1 character too short to post.
On @Casino_Royale's position that the Labour lead is soft:
Labour's lead has eroded slightly - but I think there is a clear environment where even many Tory voters want to punish the party. For many people that just means not voting or voting Labour.
I know betting wise this isn't going to be very interesting, but I am interested to see if Labour gets a bigger % than 2017, and a bigger total number of votes. It's hilarious and stupid that we have a system where the current Labour party may get a Baathist majority on similar vote shares / total votes than 2017.
And the other thing is I think this is soft support for Labour's governing - not winning. I think the support to kill the Tory party is strong. The desire to see Starmerism, not so much.
I don't think the country is keen for any "ism" at this juncture. This is one reason for the coming SKS landslide.
But the thing is once he is in government there will be an ism. There is no such thing as "common sense" "non ideological" governance.
There can be (largely) non ideological governance (for better or worse) if the decision makers are not particularly ideological. Not completely but relatively, as compared to being driven by some grand, overarching, world-explaining belief system.
"Common sense" though, lol, yes that's a red flag in politics. It usually means trite and simplistic.
Ideology is simply unavoidable. The stuff of common ground we take for granted - free NHS, a welfare state, expensive defence, pensions, free education of a certain sort to 18, free(ish) speech, no religious compulsion, minimise animal cruelty, consent is essential in sexual relations, slavery is always wrong, as is torture, same sex relationships lawful - are all profoundly ideological. This is not thought so for the same reasons that fish are unaware of water.
None exist in our form in all places at all times.
Is there not something of a difference between ideology, and culture ?
A lot of people here are still very bullish on the Tories and down on Reform - I’m surprised you’re not taking advantage of the excellent value available right now if you’re right?
Cons to beat REFUK in vote share is 1.38. If you think many Tories will ‘come home’ on polling day that’s excellent.
You can lay REFUK to win 7 or more seats at 3.7 - that’s extremely good odds if you think they will only win 1 or 2 seats at most, as a lot of people on here do.
Full disclosure that I’m on the other side of the above bets but if I was bullish on the Tories, there is stonking value in backing them to outperform current expectations.
I suspect Labour will win Sheffield Hallam at a gentle trot.
The one that really stands out there is Islington North: I suspect that (a) most voters in the constituency were actually Labour voters rather than Corbyn voters, and (b) you may well see the 2019 LD vote go for the Labour over Corbyn.
13/8 odds look very generous.
Corbyn is about to have his arse handed to him on a plate.
I tend to agree. His support is too diffuse.
£40k traded on that Betfair Exchange market. Any other constituencies seeing as much business ?
More in Common latest 🆕Our latest @moreincommon_ voting intention poll finds it’s all steady & Labour keep a 16 pt lead over the Conservatives 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🔴 LAB 41% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 11% (+1) 🟣 REF UK 14% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(- 1) Dates 14-16/6, N=2,369
The polls aren't moving, but there are big differences between different polls in particular the Tory number. Its anywhere from really terrible night for the Tories to utter destruction.
I mean, that was one example - but we could talk about which party supported apartheid South Africa, which party student wing had posters saying "Hang Nelson Mandela", which party ramped up the anti immigration fervour (yes Windrush started under Labour, and Blair started the language of "legitimate asylum seekers" - but mostly to appease Tories). Hug a hoodie Cameron wanted to make the party out as more modern - but even looking to Boris Johnson we can look at the kind of views common in the Tory Party - a man writing about black people with "watermelon smiles" and using terms like "picaninnies". For Johnson it was a part of his characterisation that he also didn't always use the dog whistle - and that's why some people liked him.
Assuming you are a labour supporter I give you recent Labour leader and anti-Semitic mural excusing Jeremy Corbyn and the Momentum group. Racism against Jews is presumably OK, because *they* "don't understand irony", and as Diane Abbott said, (whom has not quite been expelled by Labour -dither dither) Jewish people suffer the same type of discrimination as people with red hair. Try telling that to any descendant of the holocaust or someone who lost a loved one to Hamas. But to many in the Labour Party Jews do not count. Certain types of racism are still rife in the Labour Party. Starmer has simply brushed it under the mat.
I am not a Labour supporter, nor have I ever been a Labour supporter. I am less critical of Corbyn then many, because I am on the left, but I agree he had many problems as a politician.
I disagree with this "Jews Don't Count" narrative. I spoke at length after Oct 7th about my own Jewishness and lack thereof (my Grandfather's family were Russian / Polish Jews who had to flee during a pogrom under one of the last Tsars, but I don't claim any form of Jewish identity or experience). But there is an ability for many Jewish people to "pass" as white and be assimilated into whiteness that is not afforded to black people - and that comes with a different form of racism.
I would agree with you, though, that Starmer has largely brushed the issue under the carpet; ignoring the report into his own party that highlighted that there is a feeling of hierarchy of racism within the Labour party and that it does disadvantage specifically black and Muslim members / politicians.
A lot of people here are still very bullish on the Tories and down on Reform - I’m surprised you’re not taking advantage of the excellent value available right now if you’re right?
Cons to beat REFUK in vote share is 1.38. If you think many Tories will ‘come home’ on polling day that’s excellent.
You can lay REFUK to win 7 or more seats at 3.7 - that’s extremely good odds if you think they will only win 1 or 2 seats at most, as a lot of people on here do.
Full disclosure that I’m on the other side of the above bets but if I was bullish on the Tories, there is stonking value in backing them to outperform current expectations.
For the record I am on Cons to beat RefUK in vote share @ 1.44.
I suspect Labour will win Sheffield Hallam at a gentle trot.
The one that really stands out there is Islington North: I suspect that (a) most voters in the constituency were actually Labour voters rather than Corbyn voters, and (b) you may well see the 2019 LD vote go for the Labour over Corbyn.
13/8 odds look very generous.
Corbyn is about to have his arse handed to him on a plate.
I tend to agree. His support is too diffuse.
£40k traded on that Betfair Exchange market. Any other constituencies seeing as much business ?
It's ridiculous that we can't manufacture such lateral flow test kits domestically.
Of course it's neither here nor there to the UK gov't whether or not Innova's profits generated at the expense of the UK taxpayer sit in the company retained profits account or are spent on big houses and private jets. The damage is already done.
That's the headline. Some of the detail in the article is more interesting.
Note that, given the large number of such kits available relatively early in the pandemic, we didn't make very good use of them until much later on. "Track and trace" ended up being a huge waste of resources, which could have been terminated much earlier, in favour of (almost free in comparison) home testing.
Part of the problem is do you remember when people came back from summer holidays and you couldn't get a test spot within 5 minutes of your house for a couple of days, there were nearly riots. When they finally withdrew free lateral flow tests, there was unbelievable amount of screaming from every quarter.
The vast majority of the public wanted to be lockdowns, test every day, etc etc etc. The media and the public wouldn't accept some sort of sensible comprises. When Boris took the right decision on omnicron, the reaction was again he is killing grannies. The official advice and unofficial pressure groups / media was always its still too dangerous, zero covid, etc.
(1) Use lethal force (2) Renegotiate the web of international treaties to legally deport en-masse (3) Offer anyone who wants to come a ride
Reform would never do (1) - worth noting the Greeks already seem to have been doing a bit of it though, on the sly - and the Conservatives aren't organised enough to do (2) and could never do (3). So what you get is bluster.
I expect Labour want to do (3) but will instead pretend they're doing (2), and also with a lot of bluster.
The slogan was: "If you want a (N word) for a neighbour vote Labour" Smethwick election 1964. The row is one of my very early political memories.
See, for example, the article about it in the Guardian 15 Oct 2014. I won't link as it uses the N word in full but it isn't hard to find.
I think we ought to give the Tory party (for whom I am not voting this time) credit for genuinely renouncing this shameful piece of history.
Erm, so there was a repulsive person in the Conservative Party in 1964 who used a repulsive slogan. I think most people can get behind that it was horrific.....
Sadly most Labour supporters and politicians haven't yet apologised for trying to give us a Prime Minister who was an apologist for anti-Semitic tropes. Only 5 years ago.
It's ridiculous that we can't manufacture such lateral flow test kits domestically.
Of course it's neither here nor there to the UK gov't whether or not Innova's profits generated at the expense of the UK taxpayer sit in the company retained profits account or are spent on big houses and private jets. The damage is already done.
That's the headline. Some of the detail in the article is more interesting.
Note that, given the large number of such kits available relatively early in the pandemic, we didn't make very good use of them until much later on. "Track and trace" ended up being a huge waste of resources, which could have been terminated much earlier, in favour of (almost free in comparison) home testing.
Part of the problem is do you remember when people came back from summer holidays and you couldn't get a test spot within 5 minutes of your house for a couple of days, there were nearly riots. When they finally withdrew free lateral flow tests, there was unbelievable amount of screaming from every quarter.
The vast majority of the public wanted to be lockdowns, test every day, etc etc etc. The media and the public wouldn't accept some sort of sensible comprises. When Boris took the right decision on omnicron, the reaction was again he is killing grannies. The official advice and unofficial pressure groups / media was always its still too dangerous, zero covid, etc.
That was certainly the reaction on PB.
Was it? After the vaccine became available a good chunk of PB became we must learn to live with it. The wider UK population / media were still going on lockdown harder for another year plus. Chris was like the last Japanese soldier on this.
It's ridiculous that we can't manufacture such lateral flow test kits domestically.
Of course it's neither here nor there to the UK gov't whether or not Innova's profits generated at the expense of the UK taxpayer sit in the company retained profits account or are spent on big houses and private jets. The damage is already done.
That's the headline. Some of the detail in the article is more interesting.
Note that, given the large number of such kits available relatively early in the pandemic, we didn't make very good use of them until much later on. "Track and trace" ended up being a huge waste of resources, which could have been terminated much earlier, in favour of (almost free in comparison) home testing.
Part of the problem is do you remember when people came back from summer holidays and you couldn't get a test spot within 5 minutes of your house for a couple of days, there were nearly riots. When they finally withdrew free lateral flow tests, there was unbelievable amount of screaming from every quarter.
The vast majority of the public wanted to be lockdowns, test every day, etc etc etc. The media and the public wouldn't accept some sort of sensible comprises. When Boris took the right decision on omnicron, the reaction was again he is killing grannies. The official advice and unofficial pressure groups / media was always its still too dangerous, zero covid, etc.
That was certainly the reaction on PB.
Was it? After the vaccine became available a good chunk of PB became we must learn to live with it. The wider UK population / media were still going on lockdown harder for another year plus. Chris was like the last Japanese soldier on this.
I'm not going to look back but plenty on here were of the granny killer view.
When replying to posts there seems to be some kind of error saying that I'm 1 character too short to post.
On @Casino_Royale's position that the Labour lead is soft:
Labour's lead has eroded slightly - but I think there is a clear environment where even many Tory voters want to punish the party. For many people that just means not voting or voting Labour.
I know betting wise this isn't going to be very interesting, but I am interested to see if Labour gets a bigger % than 2017, and a bigger total number of votes. It's hilarious and stupid that we have a system where the current Labour party may get a Baathist majority on similar vote shares / total votes than 2017.
And the other thing is I think this is soft support for Labour's governing - not winning. I think the support to kill the Tory party is strong. The desire to see Starmerism, not so much.
I don't think the country is keen for any "ism" at this juncture. This is one reason for the coming SKS landslide.
But the thing is once he is in government there will be an ism. There is no such thing as "common sense" "non ideological" governance.
There can be (largely) non ideological governance (for better or worse) if the decision makers are not particularly ideological. Not completely but relatively, as compared to being driven by some grand, overarching, world-explaining belief system.
"Common sense" though, lol, yes that's a red flag in politics. It usually means trite and simplistic.
Ideology is simply unavoidable. The stuff of common ground we take for granted - free NHS, a welfare state, expensive defence, pensions, free education of a certain sort to 18, free(ish) speech, no religious compulsion, minimise animal cruelty, consent is essential in sexual relations, slavery is always wrong, as is torture, same sex relationships lawful - are all profoundly ideological. This is not thought so for the same reasons that fish are unaware of water.
None exist in our form in all places at all times.
Is there not something of a difference between ideology, and culture ?
Yes, though they merge. Ideologies are about ideas, principles, meta-ethics, political philosophies and so on. Every item I mentioned is 'ideas based'. All are contestable and contested. One of the emergent properties of the effluxion of time in the mix of ideas is a thing called culture. Culture and cultures too are ideas based. Vermeer is not Dame Tracey Emin; Buxtehude is not Shostakovich, not least because their ideas are different.
Googling the story, it is from 2019, and looks like the issue is that he had his cock and balls out on full display in front of a restaurant with families in it.
It's ridiculous that we can't manufacture such lateral flow test kits domestically.
Of course it's neither here nor there to the UK gov't whether or not Innova's profits generated at the expense of the UK taxpayer sit in the company retained profits account or are spent on big houses and private jets. The damage is already done.
That's the headline. Some of the detail in the article is more interesting.
Note that, given the large number of such kits available relatively early in the pandemic, we didn't make very good use of them until much later on. "Track and trace" ended up being a huge waste of resources, which could have been terminated much earlier, in favour of (almost free in comparison) home testing.
Part of the problem is do you remember when people came back from summer holidays and you couldn't get a test spot within 5 minutes of your house for a couple of days, there were nearly riots. When they finally withdrew free lateral flow tests, there was unbelievable amount of screaming from every quarter.
The vast majority of the public wanted to be lockdowns, test every day, etc etc etc. The media and the public wouldn't accept some sort of sensible comprises. When Boris took the right decision on omnicron, the reaction was again he is killing grannies. The official advice and unofficial pressure groups / media was always its still too dangerous, zero covid, etc.
That was certainly the reaction on PB.
Was it? After the vaccine became available a good chunk of PB became we must learn to live with it. The wider UK population / media were still going on lockdown harder for another year plus. Chris was like the last Japanese soldier on this.
I'm not going to look back but plenty on here were of the granny killer view.
Personally, initially I was absolutely lock the shit down ASAP, quarantine travellers coming in, no f##king foreign summer holidays 2020. But by early 2021, it was clear who those at risk were and that although initial vaccine claims were overstated, it was still true that properly vaccinated and not already had an existing serious underlying condition were much safer, risk had shifted considerably.
I was never a why can't I test 27 times a day on the government dime. Initially, f##king stay away from people, particularly oldies. You don't need to test that frequently unless specific scenarios. Then it was well I going to get this.
I mean, that was one example - but we could talk about which party supported apartheid South Africa, which party student wing had posters saying "Hang Nelson Mandela", which party ramped up the anti immigration fervour (yes Windrush started under Labour, and Blair started the language of "legitimate asylum seekers" - but mostly to appease Tories). Hug a hoodie Cameron wanted to make the party out as more modern - but even looking to Boris Johnson we can look at the kind of views common in the Tory Party - a man writing about black people with "watermelon smiles" and using terms like "picaninnies". For Johnson it was a part of his characterisation that he also didn't always use the dog whistle - and that's why some people liked him.
Assuming you are a labour supporter I give you recent Labour leader and anti-Semitic mural excusing Jeremy Corbyn and the Momentum group. Racism against Jews is presumably OK, because *they* "don't understand irony", and as Diane Abbott said, (whom has not quite been expelled by Labour -dither dither) Jewish people suffer the same type of discrimination as people with red hair. Try telling that to any descendant of the holocaust or someone who lost a loved one to Hamas. But to many in the Labour Party Jews do not count. Certain types of racism are still rife in the Labour Party. Starmer has simply brushed it under the mat.
I am not a Labour supporter, nor have I ever been a Labour supporter. I am less critical of Corbyn then many, because I am on the left, but I agree he had many problems as a politician.
I disagree with this "Jews Don't Count" narrative. I spoke at length after Oct 7th about my own Jewishness and lack thereof (my Grandfather's family were Russian / Polish Jews who had to flee during a pogrom under one of the last Tsars, but I don't claim any form of Jewish identity or experience). But there is an ability for many Jewish people to "pass" as white and be assimilated into whiteness that is not afforded to black people - and that comes with a different form of racism.
I would agree with you, though, that Starmer has largely brushed the issue under the carpet; ignoring the report into his own party that highlighted that there is a feeling of hierarchy of racism within the Labour party and that it does disadvantage specifically black and Muslim members / politicians.
Racism need not be about skin colour at all. That's a very American way of looking at it. The Nazis had very little interest in skin colour.
A lot of people here are still very bullish on the Tories and down on Reform - I’m surprised you’re not taking advantage of the excellent value available right now if you’re right?
Cons to beat REFUK in vote share is 1.38. If you think many Tories will ‘come home’ on polling day that’s excellent.
You can lay REFUK to win 7 or more seats at 3.7 - that’s extremely good odds if you think they will only win 1 or 2 seats at most, as a lot of people on here do.
Full disclosure that I’m on the other side of the above bets but if I was bullish on the Tories, there is stonking value in backing them to outperform current expectations.
For the record I am on Cons to beat RefUK in vote share @ 1.44.
Very nice - despite being on the opposite side, if pushed I would say the Tories will just about get over the line on polling day, and will likely trade out before polling day. But we are in uncharted territory now.
I dare say, if the 5pm poll really is spicy as that Election Maps tweet implied, that there may be even better value for Conservative backers in an hour’s time.
It's ridiculous that we can't manufacture such lateral flow test kits domestically.
Of course it's neither here nor there to the UK gov't whether or not Innova's profits generated at the expense of the UK taxpayer sit in the company retained profits account or are spent on big houses and private jets. The damage is already done.
That's the headline. Some of the detail in the article is more interesting.
Note that, given the large number of such kits available relatively early in the pandemic, we didn't make very good use of them until much later on. "Track and trace" ended up being a huge waste of resources, which could have been terminated much earlier, in favour of (almost free in comparison) home testing.
Part of the problem is do you remember when people came back from summer holidays and you couldn't get a test spot within 5 minutes of your house for a couple of days, there were nearly riots. When they finally withdrew free lateral flow tests, there was unbelievable amount of screaming from every quarter.
The vast majority of the public wanted to be lockdowns, test every day, etc etc etc. The media and the public wouldn't accept some sort of sensible comprises. When Boris took the right decision on omnicron, the reaction was again he is killing grannies. The official advice and unofficial pressure groups / media was always its still too dangerous, zero covid, etc.
That's about leadership, though. Without the extended fixation on 'track and trace', well beyond the point at which it was obviously futile, we might at least have saved some tens of billions, even if the pandemic would have progressed in more or less the same manner.
A lot of people here are still very bullish on the Tories and down on Reform - I’m surprised you’re not taking advantage of the excellent value available right now if you’re right?
Cons to beat REFUK in vote share is 1.38. If you think many Tories will ‘come home’ on polling day that’s excellent.
You can lay REFUK to win 7 or more seats at 3.7 - that’s extremely good odds if you think they will only win 1 or 2 seats at most, as a lot of people on here do.
Full disclosure that I’m on the other side of the above bets but if I was bullish on the Tories, there is stonking value in backing them to outperform current expectations.
For the record I am on Cons to beat RefUK in vote share @ 1.44.
Very nice - despite being on the opposite side, if pushed I would say the Tories will just about get over the line on polling day, and will likely trade out before polling day. But we are in uncharted territory now.
I dare say, if the 5pm poll really is spicy as that Election Maps tweet implied, that there may be even better value for Conservative backers in an hour’s time.
Yes, I thought the Reform rise was levelling off but it looks now to be slowing (JL aside). I like my odds but it's far from nailed on. Interesting couple of weeks ahead, and Reform's polling is much harder to interpret (wide range and difficult to judge how real it is) than most.
An incoming Government should consider scrapping most sentences of up to a year in length, in order to tackle the prison overcrowding crisis, a former Labour Justice Secretary Lord Falconer has said.
He speaks a lot of sense. The expected decline of the Conservatives is clearly at the door of the Brexit obsessives and the idiot membership who thought it a good idea to overpromote an incompetent buffoon because he was "popular".
A Reform UK general election candidate described Adolf Hitler as “brilliant” and “able to inspire people to action” as part of a pseudoscientific theory that promotes 16 personality types.
Jack Aaron, who is standing against the incumbent Grant Shapps, the defence secretary, in Welwyn Hatfield, founded the World Socionics Society — a group promoting the theory.
However, in comments made online over the past four years he has described Hitler as “brilliant”, said President Assad, the Syrian dictator, was “gentle by nature” and that President Putin’s use of force in Ukraine was “legitimate”.
Saying mass murderer Assad is "gentle by nature" is a notable take, too.
@Luckyguy1983 is quite right to observe they've scraped the very mucky bottom of the barrel to find their candidates.
The Assad comment suggests they've bought the Russian talking point subscription package (£13.99 per month, first 6 months free, comes with complimentary anti-vax starter pack).
Seems fairly thin gruel for 4 years worth of online postings to me. The fact that they couldn't find even one more word to go with 'legitimate' for the Russians indicates to me that that one is deep bullshit. Just a single word? Assad was an opthalmologist before becoming everyone's evil Middle East Dictator of choice (don't mention the Saudis) that certainly indicates a gentler nature than contemporaries like Uday Hussain, whose career involved shooting people who annoyed him.
It's ridiculous that we can't manufacture such lateral flow test kits domestically.
Of course it's neither here nor there to the UK gov't whether or not Innova's profits generated at the expense of the UK taxpayer sit in the company retained profits account or are spent on big houses and private jets. The damage is already done.
That's the headline. Some of the detail in the article is more interesting.
Note that, given the large number of such kits available relatively early in the pandemic, we didn't make very good use of them until much later on. "Track and trace" ended up being a huge waste of resources, which could have been terminated much earlier, in favour of (almost free in comparison) home testing.
Part of the problem is do you remember when people came back from summer holidays and you couldn't get a test spot within 5 minutes of your house for a couple of days, there were nearly riots. When they finally withdrew free lateral flow tests, there was unbelievable amount of screaming from every quarter.
The vast majority of the public wanted to be lockdowns, test every day, etc etc etc. The media and the public wouldn't accept some sort of sensible comprises. When Boris took the right decision on omnicron, the reaction was again he is killing grannies. The official advice and unofficial pressure groups / media was always its still too dangerous, zero covid, etc.
That's about leadership, though. Without the extended fixation on 'track and trace', well beyond the point at which it was obviously futile, we might at least have saved some tens of billions, even if the pandemic would have progressed in more or less the same manner.
Yes, that's true. I believe an under discussed aspect of issues we are having is that furlough went on far too long. Zombie companies rumbled on for another year more than they should, people got out of the habit of actually working, mental health issues result from that, etc etc etc.
But all advice / pressure from every direction was but think of the Grannies. The economic side of it doesn't matter. Sunak once spoke to the group who had a differing opinion (but included some very weird individuals), but even if he did raise the economic aspect on this with cabinet, it didn't go anywhere.
A Reform UK general election candidate described Adolf Hitler as “brilliant” and “able to inspire people to action” as part of a pseudoscientific theory that promotes 16 personality types.
Jack Aaron, who is standing against the incumbent Grant Shapps, the defence secretary, in Welwyn Hatfield, founded the World Socionics Society — a group promoting the theory.
However, in comments made online over the past four years he has described Hitler as “brilliant”, said President Assad, the Syrian dictator, was “gentle by nature” and that President Putin’s use of force in Ukraine was “legitimate”.
Saying mass murderer Assad is "gentle by nature" is a notable take, too.
@Luckyguy1983 is quite right to observe they've scraped the very mucky bottom of the barrel to find their candidates.
The Assad comment suggests they've bought the Russian talking point subscription package (£13.99 per month, first 6 months free, comes with complimentary anti-vax starter pack).
Seems fairly thin gruel for 4 years worth of online postings to me. The fact that they couldn't find even one more word to go with 'legitimate' for the Russians indicates to me that that one is deep bullshit. Just a single word? Assad was an opthalmologist before becoming everyone's evil Middle East Dictator of choice (don't mention the Saudis) that certainly indicates a gentler nature than contemporaries like Uday Hussain, whose career involved shooting people who annoyed him.
I mean, that was one example - but we could talk about which party supported apartheid South Africa, which party student wing had posters saying "Hang Nelson Mandela", which party ramped up the anti immigration fervour (yes Windrush started under Labour, and Blair started the language of "legitimate asylum seekers" - but mostly to appease Tories). Hug a hoodie Cameron wanted to make the party out as more modern - but even looking to Boris Johnson we can look at the kind of views common in the Tory Party - a man writing about black people with "watermelon smiles" and using terms like "picaninnies". For Johnson it was a part of his characterisation that he also didn't always use the dog whistle - and that's why some people liked him.
Assuming you are a labour supporter I give you recent Labour leader and anti-Semitic mural excusing Jeremy Corbyn and the Momentum group. Racism against Jews is presumably OK, because *they* "don't understand irony", and as Diane Abbott said, (whom has not quite been expelled by Labour -dither dither) Jewish people suffer the same type of discrimination as people with red hair. Try telling that to any descendant of the holocaust or someone who lost a loved one to Hamas. But to many in the Labour Party Jews do not count. Certain types of racism are still rife in the Labour Party. Starmer has simply brushed it under the mat.
I am not a Labour supporter, nor have I ever been a Labour supporter. I am less critical of Corbyn then many, because I am on the left, but I agree he had many problems as a politician.
I disagree with this "Jews Don't Count" narrative. I spoke at length after Oct 7th about my own Jewishness and lack thereof (my Grandfather's family were Russian / Polish Jews who had to flee during a pogrom under one of the last Tsars, but I don't claim any form of Jewish identity or experience). But there is an ability for many Jewish people to "pass" as white and be assimilated into whiteness that is not afforded to black people - and that comes with a different form of racism.
I would agree with you, though, that Starmer has largely brushed the issue under the carpet; ignoring the report into his own party that highlighted that there is a feeling of hierarchy of racism within the Labour party and that it does disadvantage specifically black and Muslim members / politicians.
Racism need not be about skin colour at all. That's a very American way of looking at it. The Nazis had very little interest in skin colour.
Indeed. Try telling the Nazis that your grandparents were Jewish, but you're not. The Nuremberg Laws would have at the very least restricted who you could marry, what professions you could enter, and like as not - as the final solution picked up pace - seen you rounded up and treated as just as much of a Jew, despite having no Jewish identity or experience yourself.
When replying to posts there seems to be some kind of error saying that I'm 1 character too short to post.
On @Casino_Royale's position that the Labour lead is soft:
Labour's lead has eroded slightly - but I think there is a clear environment where even many Tory voters want to punish the party. For many people that just means not voting or voting Labour.
I know betting wise this isn't going to be very interesting, but I am interested to see if Labour gets a bigger % than 2017, and a bigger total number of votes. It's hilarious and stupid that we have a system where the current Labour party may get a Baathist majority on similar vote shares / total votes than 2017.
And the other thing is I think this is soft support for Labour's governing - not winning. I think the support to kill the Tory party is strong. The desire to see Starmerism, not so much.
I don't think the country is keen for any "ism" at this juncture. This is one reason for the coming SKS landslide.
But the thing is once he is in government there will be an ism. There is no such thing as "common sense" "non ideological" governance.
There can be (largely) non ideological governance (for better or worse) if the decision makers are not particularly ideological. Not completely but relatively, as compared to being driven by some grand, overarching, world-explaining belief system.
"Common sense" though, lol, yes that's a red flag in politics. It usually means trite and simplistic.
Sorry - I disagree. There is always an ideology. There isn't a non ideological way to view the world, let alone be in the world of politics. Even those people that argue "people just want competency from their government" have an ideology - competency at doing what, for who, in what way, etc. The things you value is about ideology, the method of delivery will be tinged by ideology, what you think is "best" will be based on ideology. There is no giant brained "non ideological" take.
I suspect we don't agree about much, but we agree very much about this. The claim of 'non-ideological' is a fraudulent pretence, which in UK plays on our ferocious and long standing (and of course entirely understandable given what frauds intellectuals can be) distrust of theory and theorists.
More in Common latest 🆕Our latest @moreincommon_ voting intention poll finds it’s all steady & Labour keep a 16 pt lead over the Conservatives 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🔴 LAB 41% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 11% (+1) 🟣 REF UK 14% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(- 1) Dates 14-16/6, N=2,369
I think More in Common is the only pollster currently that has the Tories as high as 25.
I'm finding it very hard to believe the Tory vote will ever fall under 30%. There are just too many always Conservatives, who will equivocate until the last moment then find a reason to justify voting Conservative as usual. I might just stretch to 29, on the grounds that this government is miles worse than John Major's, and so deserves to do measurably poorer. But that's as far as I will go.
I also can't believe that Reform will poll 10% when it comes to actual votes.
It's ridiculous that we can't manufacture such lateral flow test kits domestically.
Of course it's neither here nor there to the UK gov't whether or not Innova's profits generated at the expense of the UK taxpayer sit in the company retained profits account or are spent on big houses and private jets. The damage is already done.
That's the headline. Some of the detail in the article is more interesting.
Note that, given the large number of such kits available relatively early in the pandemic, we didn't make very good use of them until much later on. "Track and trace" ended up being a huge waste of resources, which could have been terminated much earlier, in favour of (almost free in comparison) home testing.
Part of the problem is do you remember when people came back from summer holidays and you couldn't get a test spot within 5 minutes of your house for a couple of days, there were nearly riots. When they finally withdrew free lateral flow tests, there was unbelievable amount of screaming from every quarter.
The vast majority of the public wanted to be lockdowns, test every day, etc etc etc. The media and the public wouldn't accept some sort of sensible comprises. When Boris took the right decision on omnicron, the reaction was again he is killing grannies. The official advice and unofficial pressure groups / media was always its still too dangerous, zero covid, etc.
That was certainly the reaction on PB.
Was it? After the vaccine became available a good chunk of PB became we must learn to live with it. The wider UK population / media were still going on lockdown harder for another year plus. Chris was like the last Japanese soldier on this.
I'm not going to look back but plenty on here were of the granny killer view.
But lateral flow tests provided (and still provide for some) a much easier and cheaper way of protecting granny.
I hadn't realised we had quite such a large supply of them early on. We might at least have got some value out of the excess billions we paid to secure an early supply - and we didn't.
It's ridiculous that we can't manufacture such lateral flow test kits domestically.
Of course it's neither here nor there to the UK gov't whether or not Innova's profits generated at the expense of the UK taxpayer sit in the company retained profits account or are spent on big houses and private jets. The damage is already done.
That's the headline. Some of the detail in the article is more interesting.
Note that, given the large number of such kits available relatively early in the pandemic, we didn't make very good use of them until much later on. "Track and trace" ended up being a huge waste of resources, which could have been terminated much earlier, in favour of (almost free in comparison) home testing.
Part of the problem is do you remember when people came back from summer holidays and you couldn't get a test spot within 5 minutes of your house for a couple of days, there were nearly riots. When they finally withdrew free lateral flow tests, there was unbelievable amount of screaming from every quarter.
The vast majority of the public wanted to be lockdowns, test every day, etc etc etc. The media and the public wouldn't accept some sort of sensible comprises. When Boris took the right decision on omnicron, the reaction was again he is killing grannies. The official advice and unofficial pressure groups / media was always its still too dangerous, zero covid, etc.
That was certainly the reaction on PB.
Was it? After the vaccine became available a good chunk of PB became we must learn to live with it. The wider UK population / media were still going on lockdown harder for another year plus. Chris was like the last Japanese soldier on this.
Yes. Once we were vaccinated it was job done as far as the median PB poster was concerned.
The slogan was: "If you want a (N word) for a neighbour vote Labour" Smethwick election 1964. The row is one of my very early political memories.
See, for example, the article about it in the Guardian 15 Oct 2014. I won't link as it uses the N word in full but it isn't hard to find.
I think we ought to give the Tory party (for whom I am not voting this time) credit for genuinely renouncing this shameful piece of history.
Erm, so there was a repulsive person in the Conservative Party in 1964 who used a repulsive slogan. I think most people can get behind that it was horrific.....
Sadly most Labour supporters and politicians haven't yet apologised for trying to give us a Prime Minister who was an apologist for anti-Semitic tropes. Only 5 years ago.
The candidate, Peter Griffiths, was a Tory MP until he lost his seat in 1997.
I do tend to agree politicians of all parties aren't in an ideal place to throw stones, though. They've just about all stood by someone, or failed to criticise them as they probably should have, for reasons of political convenience at one time or another.
It's ridiculous that we can't manufacture such lateral flow test kits domestically.
Of course it's neither here nor there to the UK gov't whether or not Innova's profits generated at the expense of the UK taxpayer sit in the company retained profits account or are spent on big houses and private jets. The damage is already done.
That's the headline. Some of the detail in the article is more interesting.
Note that, given the large number of such kits available relatively early in the pandemic, we didn't make very good use of them until much later on. "Track and trace" ended up being a huge waste of resources, which could have been terminated much earlier, in favour of (almost free in comparison) home testing.
Part of the problem is do you remember when people came back from summer holidays and you couldn't get a test spot within 5 minutes of your house for a couple of days, there were nearly riots. When they finally withdrew free lateral flow tests, there was unbelievable amount of screaming from every quarter.
The vast majority of the public wanted to be lockdowns, test every day, etc etc etc. The media and the public wouldn't accept some sort of sensible comprises. When Boris took the right decision on omnicron, the reaction was again he is killing grannies. The official advice and unofficial pressure groups / media was always its still too dangerous, zero covid, etc.
That was certainly the reaction on PB.
Was it? After the vaccine became available a good chunk of PB became we must learn to live with it. The wider UK population / media were still going on lockdown harder for another year plus. Chris was like the last Japanese soldier on this.
I'm not going to look back but plenty on here were of the granny killer view.
It's ridiculous that we can't manufacture such lateral flow test kits domestically.
Of course it's neither here nor there to the UK gov't whether or not Innova's profits generated at the expense of the UK taxpayer sit in the company retained profits account or are spent on big houses and private jets. The damage is already done.
That's the headline. Some of the detail in the article is more interesting.
Note that, given the large number of such kits available relatively early in the pandemic, we didn't make very good use of them until much later on. "Track and trace" ended up being a huge waste of resources, which could have been terminated much earlier, in favour of (almost free in comparison) home testing.
Part of the problem is do you remember when people came back from summer holidays and you couldn't get a test spot within 5 minutes of your house for a couple of days, there were nearly riots. When they finally withdrew free lateral flow tests, there was unbelievable amount of screaming from every quarter.
The vast majority of the public wanted to be lockdowns, test every day, etc etc etc. The media and the public wouldn't accept some sort of sensible comprises. When Boris took the right decision on omnicron, the reaction was again he is killing grannies. The official advice and unofficial pressure groups / media was always its still too dangerous, zero covid, etc.
That was certainly the reaction on PB.
Was it? After the vaccine became available a good chunk of PB became we must learn to live with it. The wider UK population / media were still going on lockdown harder for another year plus. Chris was like the last Japanese soldier on this.
I'm not going to look back but plenty on here were of the granny killer view.
Granny was vaccinated.
A lot of old people couldn't and can't be. Also some with certain medical conditions.
When replying to posts there seems to be some kind of error saying that I'm 1 character too short to post.
On @Casino_Royale's position that the Labour lead is soft:
Labour's lead has eroded slightly - but I think there is a clear environment where even many Tory voters want to punish the party. For many people that just means not voting or voting Labour.
I know betting wise this isn't going to be very interesting, but I am interested to see if Labour gets a bigger % than 2017, and a bigger total number of votes. It's hilarious and stupid that we have a system where the current Labour party may get a Baathist majority on similar vote shares / total votes than 2017.
And the other thing is I think this is soft support for Labour's governing - not winning. I think the support to kill the Tory party is strong. The desire to see Starmerism, not so much.
I don't think the country is keen for any "ism" at this juncture. This is one reason for the coming SKS landslide.
But the thing is once he is in government there will be an ism. There is no such thing as "common sense" "non ideological" governance.
There can be (largely) non ideological governance (for better or worse) if the decision makers are not particularly ideological. Not completely but relatively, as compared to being driven by some grand, overarching, world-explaining belief system.
"Common sense" though, lol, yes that's a red flag in politics. It usually means trite and simplistic.
Ideology is simply unavoidable. The stuff of common ground we take for granted - free NHS, a welfare state, expensive defence, pensions, free education of a certain sort to 18, free(ish) speech, no religious compulsion, minimise animal cruelty, consent is essential in sexual relations, slavery is always wrong, as is torture, same sex relationships lawful - are all profoundly ideological. This is not thought so for the same reasons that fish are unaware of water.
None exist in our form in all places at all times.
Is there not something of a difference between ideology, and culture ?
Yes, though they merge. Ideologies are about ideas, principles, meta-ethics, political philosophies and so on. Every item I mentioned is 'ideas based'. All are contestable and contested. One of the emergent properties of the effluxion of time in the mix of ideas is a thing called culture. Culture and cultures too are ideas based. Vermeer is not Dame Tracey Emin; Buxtehude is not Shostakovich, not least because their ideas are different.
Is not a difference that ideologies are necessarily prescriptive, while culture is more descriptive ?
(1) Use lethal force (2) Renegotiate the web of international treaties to legally deport en-masse (3) Offer anyone who wants to come a ride
Reform would never do (1) - worth noting the Greeks already seem to have been doing a bit of it though, on the sly - and the Conservatives aren't organised enough to do (2) and could never do (3). So what you get is bluster.
I expect Labour want to do (3) but will instead pretend they're doing (2), and also with a lot of bluster.
The problem will fester.
A variation on number 2 could work. A negotiation for a quota system of asylum seekers across Europe meaning each country agrees to take a percentage based on their population, or more if their politicians are brave enough. It seems an absurdity to me that an asylum seeker can travel through numerous safe states and then claim asylum at the one that they think looks most attractive, or where they have family. Once they are in a safe country and move to another they are economic migrants IMO.
It's ridiculous that we can't manufacture such lateral flow test kits domestically.
Of course it's neither here nor there to the UK gov't whether or not Innova's profits generated at the expense of the UK taxpayer sit in the company retained profits account or are spent on big houses and private jets. The damage is already done.
That's the headline. Some of the detail in the article is more interesting.
Note that, given the large number of such kits available relatively early in the pandemic, we didn't make very good use of them until much later on. "Track and trace" ended up being a huge waste of resources, which could have been terminated much earlier, in favour of (almost free in comparison) home testing.
Part of the problem is do you remember when people came back from summer holidays and you couldn't get a test spot within 5 minutes of your house for a couple of days, there were nearly riots. When they finally withdrew free lateral flow tests, there was unbelievable amount of screaming from every quarter.
The vast majority of the public wanted to be lockdowns, test every day, etc etc etc. The media and the public wouldn't accept some sort of sensible comprises. When Boris took the right decision on omnicron, the reaction was again he is killing grannies. The official advice and unofficial pressure groups / media was always its still too dangerous, zero covid, etc.
That was certainly the reaction on PB.
Was it? After the vaccine became available a good chunk of PB became we must learn to live with it. The wider UK population / media were still going on lockdown harder for another year plus. Chris was like the last Japanese soldier on this.
I'm not going to look back but plenty on here were of the granny killer view.
Granny was vaccinated.
The numbers quoted for the expense of Track and Trace include all the 'free' testing kits that people still have stockpiled at home (I know of people who took a box a day for months).
Partly true, and partly untrue. Johnson, Truss, and Sunak were indeed appalling, and chose a lot of appalling people. But, the problems of bad candidates, funnelling money to core voters, and loading the burden of austerity onto younger people predate them.
SUB SAMPLE KLAXON just for fun, MiC had the Tories ahead in the SW in the sub sample. First Tory lead in any region I've seen in months. NOTE - Just For Fun!
More in Common latest 🆕Our latest @moreincommon_ voting intention poll finds it’s all steady & Labour keep a 16 pt lead over the Conservatives 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🔴 LAB 41% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 11% (+1) 🟣 REF UK 14% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(- 1) Dates 14-16/6, N=2,369
I think More in Common is the only pollster currently that has the Tories as high as 25.
I'm finding it very hard to believe the Tory vote will ever fall under 30%. There are just too many always Conservatives, who will equivocate until the last moment then find a reason to justify voting Conservative as usual. I might just stretch to 29, on the grounds that this government is miles worse than John Major's, and so deserves to do measurably poorer. But that's as far as I will go.
I also can't believe that Reform will poll 10% when it comes to actual votes.
UKIP polled at around 13% throughout the 2015 campaign, and got 13% on polling day, so Farage does have a record of actual votes in GEs.
It's ridiculous that we can't manufacture such lateral flow test kits domestically.
Of course it's neither here nor there to the UK gov't whether or not Innova's profits generated at the expense of the UK taxpayer sit in the company retained profits account or are spent on big houses and private jets. The damage is already done.
That's the headline. Some of the detail in the article is more interesting.
Note that, given the large number of such kits available relatively early in the pandemic, we didn't make very good use of them until much later on. "Track and trace" ended up being a huge waste of resources, which could have been terminated much earlier, in favour of (almost free in comparison) home testing.
Part of the problem is do you remember when people came back from summer holidays and you couldn't get a test spot within 5 minutes of your house for a couple of days, there were nearly riots. When they finally withdrew free lateral flow tests, there was unbelievable amount of screaming from every quarter.
The vast majority of the public wanted to be lockdowns, test every day, etc etc etc. The media and the public wouldn't accept some sort of sensible comprises. When Boris took the right decision on omnicron, the reaction was again he is killing grannies. The official advice and unofficial pressure groups / media was always its still too dangerous, zero covid, etc.
That was certainly the reaction on PB.
Was it? After the vaccine became available a good chunk of PB became we must learn to live with it. The wider UK population / media were still going on lockdown harder for another year plus. Chris was like the last Japanese soldier on this.
I'm not going to look back but plenty on here were of the granny killer view.
Granny was vaccinated.
A lot of old people couldn't and can't be. Also some with certain medical conditions.
I did think of you as one of the small minority who disagreed.
There's a difference between actions you'd take for the whole country and actions to take for specific vulnerable groups. With the vast majority of the country vaccinated it provided the basis for a wholesale change in strategy. The subsequent rates of hospitalisation and death have vindicated such a shift in strategy post-vaccination.
SUB SAMPLE KLAXON just for fun, MiC had the Tories ahead in the SW in the sub sample. First Tory lead in any region I've seen in months. NOTE - Just For Fun!
Textbook, and might I add admirable, use of the Subsample Klaxon there. You are a role model, and a gentleman.
Partly true, and partly untrue. Johnson, Truss, and Sunak were indeed appalling, and chose a lot of appalling people. But, the problems of bad candidates, funnelling money to core voters, and loading the burden of austerity onto younger people predate them.
Sure, but they signed up to those approaches which they inherited. They didn't change them. In fact perhaps they made them worse - the focus on houser-owning pensioners has continued to try and build on the RNRB provisions made by Mr Osborne, vide all the IHT proposal floaters.
Partly true, and partly untrue. Johnson, Truss, and Sunak were indeed appalling, and chose a lot of appalling people. But, the problems of bad candidates, funnelling money to core voters, and loading the burden of austerity onto younger people predate them.
The Tories chased the dragon to the right and are about to go extinct.
Moving further right will not fix their existential problem.
@Geri_E_L_Scott Excl: A Reform candidate described Adolf Hitler as “brilliant” and “able to inspire people to action” as part of a pseudoscientific theory that promotes 16 personality types.
RefUK should just brush this all off and keep going. They need to be the antidote to polished politics with plastic candidates with no personality. It has worked for Trump. The one thing I think they are doing wrong is trying to cancel the 'woke' left, they should rise above it and just say they believe in free speech, second chances, that kind of thing.
Everyone has said something stupid in their lives. All posters on here who have ever made an interesting contribution has said something a bit dodgy that could be spun out of context, particularly given how the zeitgeist has changed over the last 20 years.
Let's be honest, we'd all priced in a bit of Adolf for Reform.
It's silly though. I don't think Farage or Tice are like that, and I don't like Farage.
They just hate foreigners a bit, but they wouldn't take it as far as Hitler did?
Silly comment.
My God - you don't think Farage hates foreigners?
Either way, that's something considerably worse than "silly".
SUB SAMPLE KLAXON just for fun, MiC had the Tories ahead in the SW in the sub sample. First Tory lead in any region I've seen in months. NOTE - Just For Fun!
Textbook, and might I add admirable, use of the Subsample Klaxon there. You are a role model, and a gentleman.
More in Common latest 🆕Our latest @moreincommon_ voting intention poll finds it’s all steady & Labour keep a 16 pt lead over the Conservatives 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🔴 LAB 41% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 11% (+1) 🟣 REF UK 14% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(- 1) Dates 14-16/6, N=2,369
I think More in Common is the only pollster currently that has the Tories as high as 25.
I'm finding it very hard to believe the Tory vote will ever fall under 30%. There are just too many always Conservatives, who will equivocate until the last moment then find a reason to justify voting Conservative as usual. I might just stretch to 29, on the grounds that this government is miles worse than John Major's, and so deserves to do measurably poorer. But that's as far as I will go.
I also can't believe that Reform will poll 10% when it comes to actual votes.
To pair this and @Farooq’s comment above - I can totally see where you are coming from. But it would be a humongous polling miss now, if the Tories were to get 30%.
I just looked on Wikipedia - unless I’ve missed something, the last time the Tories were on 30% in ANY opinion poll from ANY pollster was 7-9 July 2023 (Savanta) - almost a year ago!
I think the difference vs past elections, is even if you think Reform will fade away, they are much more of a factor than previously.
Sure they only got 2% in 2019 but that was when they only had 275 candidates - the clear Brexit vote was for Boris’ Tories. So with that in mind (and Farage’s return) it’s easier to see Reform’s baseline a bit higher than it might initially seem.
If you think the Tories are going to get 25-30% then you could get on ‘Conservative Vote Percentage 24.00% or higher’ which is currently 4.1 on BF Exchange. I’m not on this market on either side but that looks good if you are bullish.
Either way - I can’t believe anyone can say this is a ‘boring’ election - it seems absolutely fascinating from a lot of angles!
It's ridiculous that we can't manufacture such lateral flow test kits domestically.
Of course it's neither here nor there to the UK gov't whether or not Innova's profits generated at the expense of the UK taxpayer sit in the company retained profits account or are spent on big houses and private jets. The damage is already done.
That's the headline. Some of the detail in the article is more interesting.
Note that, given the large number of such kits available relatively early in the pandemic, we didn't make very good use of them until much later on. "Track and trace" ended up being a huge waste of resources, which could have been terminated much earlier, in favour of (almost free in comparison) home testing.
Part of the problem is do you remember when people came back from summer holidays and you couldn't get a test spot within 5 minutes of your house for a couple of days, there were nearly riots. When they finally withdrew free lateral flow tests, there was unbelievable amount of screaming from every quarter.
The vast majority of the public wanted to be lockdowns, test every day, etc etc etc. The media and the public wouldn't accept some sort of sensible comprises. When Boris took the right decision on omnicron, the reaction was again he is killing grannies. The official advice and unofficial pressure groups / media was always its still too dangerous, zero covid, etc.
That was certainly the reaction on PB.
Was it? After the vaccine became available a good chunk of PB became we must learn to live with it. The wider UK population / media were still going on lockdown harder for another year plus. Chris was like the last Japanese soldier on this.
I'm not going to look back but plenty on here were of the granny killer view.
Granny was vaccinated.
A lot of old people couldn't and can't be. Also some with certain medical conditions.
I did think of you as one of the small minority who disagreed.
There's a difference between actions you'd take for the whole country and actions to take for specific vulnerable groups. With the vast majority of the country vaccinated it provided the basis for a wholesale change in strategy. The subsequent rates of hospitalisation and death have vindicated such a shift in strategy post-vaccination.
Quite. Though covid is still no joke. It's useful to be able to checj one's status if one is sniffling etc. when about to visit an elderly relative.
It's ridiculous that we can't manufacture such lateral flow test kits domestically.
Of course it's neither here nor there to the UK gov't whether or not Innova's profits generated at the expense of the UK taxpayer sit in the company retained profits account or are spent on big houses and private jets. The damage is already done.
That's the headline. Some of the detail in the article is more interesting.
Note that, given the large number of such kits available relatively early in the pandemic, we didn't make very good use of them until much later on. "Track and trace" ended up being a huge waste of resources, which could have been terminated much earlier, in favour of (almost free in comparison) home testing.
Part of the problem is do you remember when people came back from summer holidays and you couldn't get a test spot within 5 minutes of your house for a couple of days, there were nearly riots. When they finally withdrew free lateral flow tests, there was unbelievable amount of screaming from every quarter.
The vast majority of the public wanted to be lockdowns, test every day, etc etc etc. The media and the public wouldn't accept some sort of sensible comprises. When Boris took the right decision on omnicron, the reaction was again he is killing grannies. The official advice and unofficial pressure groups / media was always its still too dangerous, zero covid, etc.
That was certainly the reaction on PB.
Was it? After the vaccine became available a good chunk of PB became we must learn to live with it. The wider UK population / media were still going on lockdown harder for another year plus. Chris was like the last Japanese soldier on this.
I'm not going to look back but plenty on here were of the granny killer view.
Granny was vaccinated.
The numbers quoted for the expense of Track and Trace include all the 'free' testing kits that people still have stockpiled at home (I know of people who took a box a day for months).
They should just have been distributed direct to consumer earlier - they're of most utility when everyone has access them. The testing centres became redundant.
(As should, much earlier, the debate over lockdowns, which they ought to have rendered unnecessary.)
A Reform UK general election candidate described Adolf Hitler as “brilliant” and “able to inspire people to action” as part of a pseudoscientific theory that promotes 16 personality types.
Jack Aaron, who is standing against the incumbent Grant Shapps, the defence secretary, in Welwyn Hatfield, founded the World Socionics Society — a group promoting the theory.
However, in comments made online over the past four years he has described Hitler as “brilliant”, said President Assad, the Syrian dictator, was “gentle by nature” and that President Putin’s use of force in Ukraine was “legitimate”.
You wonder how many more of these will appear. I remain sceptical of any Reform takeover or merger with the Cons for exactly this sort of reason (that, and were I Tory myself, I would not particularly want to be making overtures to someone who is setting out to gut my party and use it as a host organism).
One thing that unites the Tory Party is opposing Putin/supporting Ukraine/support for NATO.
We're also pretty united on the antivax bollocks that people like Andrew Bridgen and the GB News mob put out.
Just look at how Liz Truss was derided by so many Tories for her pro Trump bullshit.
Partly true, and partly untrue. Johnson, Truss, and Sunak were indeed appalling, and chose a lot of appalling people. But, the problems of bad candidates, funnelling money to core voters, and loading the burden of austerity onto younger people predate them.
I have no idea why they let that repulsive man write for Conhome. He is neither a Conservative nor a conservative.
(1) Use lethal force (2) Renegotiate the web of international treaties to legally deport en-masse (3) Offer anyone who wants to come a ride
Reform would never do (1) - worth noting the Greeks already seem to have been doing a bit of it though, on the sly - and the Conservatives aren't organised enough to do (2) and could never do (3). So what you get is bluster.
I expect Labour want to do (3) but will instead pretend they're doing (2), and also with a lot of bluster.
The problem will fester.
Make a crime of entering the country illegally. Five years in prison/youth institution.
A valid defence is any of the following: * Travelled on scheduled plane, train or ferry. * British (or Irish Citizen) or have leave to remain at time of journey * Travelled directly from country of persecution (and did not go via a safe country) and claiming Asylum.
Prison/Youth Detention centre for the purpose built on Falkland Islands.
@Geri_E_L_Scott Excl: A Reform candidate described Adolf Hitler as “brilliant” and “able to inspire people to action” as part of a pseudoscientific theory that promotes 16 personality types.
RefUK should just brush this all off and keep going. They need to be the antidote to polished politics with plastic candidates with no personality. It has worked for Trump. The one thing I think they are doing wrong is trying to cancel the 'woke' left, they should rise above it and just say they believe in free speech, second chances, that kind of thing.
Everyone has said something stupid in their lives. All posters on here who have ever made an interesting contribution has said something a bit dodgy that could be spun out of context, particularly given how the zeitgeist has changed over the last 20 years.
Let's be honest, we'd all priced in a bit of Adolf for Reform.
It's silly though. I don't think Farage or Tice are like that, and I don't like Farage.
They just hate foreigners a bit, but they wouldn't take it as far as Hitler did?
Silly comment.
My God - you don't think Farage hates foreigners?
Either way, that's something considerably worse than "silly".
It's ridiculous that we can't manufacture such lateral flow test kits domestically.
Of course it's neither here nor there to the UK gov't whether or not Innova's profits generated at the expense of the UK taxpayer sit in the company retained profits account or are spent on big houses and private jets. The damage is already done.
That's the headline. Some of the detail in the article is more interesting.
Note that, given the large number of such kits available relatively early in the pandemic, we didn't make very good use of them until much later on. "Track and trace" ended up being a huge waste of resources, which could have been terminated much earlier, in favour of (almost free in comparison) home testing.
Part of the problem is do you remember when people came back from summer holidays and you couldn't get a test spot within 5 minutes of your house for a couple of days, there were nearly riots. When they finally withdrew free lateral flow tests, there was unbelievable amount of screaming from every quarter.
The vast majority of the public wanted to be lockdowns, test every day, etc etc etc. The media and the public wouldn't accept some sort of sensible comprises. When Boris took the right decision on omnicron, the reaction was again he is killing grannies. The official advice and unofficial pressure groups / media was always its still too dangerous, zero covid, etc.
That was certainly the reaction on PB.
Was it? After the vaccine became available a good chunk of PB became we must learn to live with it. The wider UK population / media were still going on lockdown harder for another year plus. Chris was like the last Japanese soldier on this.
I'm not going to look back but plenty on here were of the granny killer view.
Granny was vaccinated.
A lot of old people couldn't and can't be. Also some with certain medical conditions.
I did think of you as one of the small minority who disagreed.
There's a difference between actions you'd take for the whole country and actions to take for specific vulnerable groups. With the vast majority of the country vaccinated it provided the basis for a wholesale change in strategy. The subsequent rates of hospitalisation and death have vindicated such a shift in strategy post-vaccination.
Quite. Though covid is still no joke. It's useful to be able to checj one's status if one is sniffling etc. when about to visit an elderly relative.
Indeed. And plenty of people are buying cheap LFTs for that purpose from supermarkets where they are routinely available.
Election news, had one of my local Tory councillors knocking on my door. She seemed quite sad when I said I didn't agree with her that our Conservative MP (Gareth Bacon - who he? I hear you ask) has been doing a fantastic job.
Partly true, and partly untrue. Johnson, Truss, and Sunak were indeed appalling, and chose a lot of appalling people. But, the problems of bad candidates, funnelling money to core voters, and loading the burden of austerity onto younger people predate them.
I have no idea why they let that repulsive man write for Conhome. He is neither a Conservative nor a conservative.
Were they to ban the repulsive from Conhome, it would be a far lonelier place than now.
Googling the story, it is from 2019, and looks like the issue is that he had his cock and balls out on full display in front of a restaurant with families in it.
Also he had drugs and past convictions.
Strikes me as a very poor use of a prison place. Chap obviously needs substantial psychiatric help.
It's ridiculous that we can't manufacture such lateral flow test kits domestically.
Of course it's neither here nor there to the UK gov't whether or not Innova's profits generated at the expense of the UK taxpayer sit in the company retained profits account or are spent on big houses and private jets. The damage is already done.
That's the headline. Some of the detail in the article is more interesting.
Note that, given the large number of such kits available relatively early in the pandemic, we didn't make very good use of them until much later on. "Track and trace" ended up being a huge waste of resources, which could have been terminated much earlier, in favour of (almost free in comparison) home testing.
Part of the problem is do you remember when people came back from summer holidays and you couldn't get a test spot within 5 minutes of your house for a couple of days, there were nearly riots. When they finally withdrew free lateral flow tests, there was unbelievable amount of screaming from every quarter.
The vast majority of the public wanted to be lockdowns, test every day, etc etc etc. The media and the public wouldn't accept some sort of sensible comprises. When Boris took the right decision on omnicron, the reaction was again he is killing grannies. The official advice and unofficial pressure groups / media was always its still too dangerous, zero covid, etc.
That was certainly the reaction on PB.
Was it? After the vaccine became available a good chunk of PB became we must learn to live with it. The wider UK population / media were still going on lockdown harder for another year plus. Chris was like the last Japanese soldier on this.
I'm not going to look back but plenty on here were of the granny killer view.
Granny was vaccinated.
The numbers quoted for the expense of Track and Trace include all the 'free' testing kits that people still have stockpiled at home (I know of people who took a box a day for months).
They should just have been distributed direct to consumer earlier - they're of most utility when everyone has access them. The testing centres became redundant.
We also suffered from some poor thinking by those in the public health domain. The lateral flow tests were not perfect and some we dead against them being used widely, when in population terms an imperfect, but useful test would have had a decent impact. Sure there would have been false positives and false negatives, but thats on the whole better than no test at all. And is isolating after a false positive that different from isolating through contact tracing (which I had to do)? And two false positives in a row are very unlikely, so test again, or test tomorrow etc.
It's ridiculous that we can't manufacture such lateral flow test kits domestically.
Of course it's neither here nor there to the UK gov't whether or not Innova's profits generated at the expense of the UK taxpayer sit in the company retained profits account or are spent on big houses and private jets. The damage is already done.
That's the headline. Some of the detail in the article is more interesting.
Note that, given the large number of such kits available relatively early in the pandemic, we didn't make very good use of them until much later on. "Track and trace" ended up being a huge waste of resources, which could have been terminated much earlier, in favour of (almost free in comparison) home testing.
Part of the problem is do you remember when people came back from summer holidays and you couldn't get a test spot within 5 minutes of your house for a couple of days, there were nearly riots. When they finally withdrew free lateral flow tests, there was unbelievable amount of screaming from every quarter.
The vast majority of the public wanted to be lockdowns, test every day, etc etc etc. The media and the public wouldn't accept some sort of sensible comprises. When Boris took the right decision on omnicron, the reaction was again he is killing grannies. The official advice and unofficial pressure groups / media was always its still too dangerous, zero covid, etc.
That was certainly the reaction on PB.
Was it? After the vaccine became available a good chunk of PB became we must learn to live with it. The wider UK population / media were still going on lockdown harder for another year plus. Chris was like the last Japanese soldier on this.
I'm not going to look back but plenty on here were of the granny killer view.
Granny was vaccinated.
A lot of old people couldn't and can't be. Also some with certain medical conditions.
I did think of you as one of the small minority who disagreed.
There's a difference between actions you'd take for the whole country and actions to take for specific vulnerable groups. With the vast majority of the country vaccinated it provided the basis for a wholesale change in strategy. The subsequent rates of hospitalisation and death have vindicated such a shift in strategy post-vaccination.
Quite. Though covid is still no joke. It's useful to be able to checj one's status if one is sniffling etc. when about to visit an elderly relative.
Indeed. And plenty of people are buying cheap LFTs for that purpose from supermarkets where they are routinely available.
The handed-out ones are, in any case, time expired by now, I should think.
@Geri_E_L_Scott Excl: A Reform candidate described Adolf Hitler as “brilliant” and “able to inspire people to action” as part of a pseudoscientific theory that promotes 16 personality types.
RefUK should just brush this all off and keep going. They need to be the antidote to polished politics with plastic candidates with no personality. It has worked for Trump. The one thing I think they are doing wrong is trying to cancel the 'woke' left, they should rise above it and just say they believe in free speech, second chances, that kind of thing.
Everyone has said something stupid in their lives. All posters on here who have ever made an interesting contribution has said something a bit dodgy that could be spun out of context, particularly given how the zeitgeist has changed over the last 20 years.
Let's be honest, we'd all priced in a bit of Adolf for Reform.
It's silly though. I don't think Farage or Tice are like that, and I don't like Farage.
They just hate foreigners a bit, but they wouldn't take it as far as Hitler did?
Silly comment.
My God - you don't think Farage hates foreigners?
Either way, that's something considerably worse than "silly".
He married a foreigner.
If I was Farage, I'd have to really hate someone to marry them!
More in Common latest 🆕Our latest @moreincommon_ voting intention poll finds it’s all steady & Labour keep a 16 pt lead over the Conservatives 🔵 CON 25% (-) 🔴 LAB 41% (-) 🟠 LIB DEM 11% (+1) 🟣 REF UK 14% (+1) 🟢 GRN 5% (-) 🟡 SNP 2%(- 1) Dates 14-16/6, N=2,369
I think More in Common is the only pollster currently that has the Tories as high as 25.
I'm finding it very hard to believe the Tory vote will ever fall under 30%. There are just too many always Conservatives, who will equivocate until the last moment then find a reason to justify voting Conservative as usual. I might just stretch to 29, on the grounds that this government is miles worse than John Major's, and so deserves to do measurably poorer. But that's as far as I will go.
I also can't believe that Reform will poll 10% when it comes to actual votes.
To pair this and @Farooq’s comment above - I can totally see where you are coming from. But it would be a humongous polling miss now, if the Tories were to get 30%.
I just looked on Wikipedia - unless I’ve missed something, the last time the Tories were on 30% in ANY opinion poll from ANY pollster was 7-9 July 2023 (Savanta) - almost a year ago!
I think the difference vs past elections, is even if you think Reform will fade away, they are much more of a factor than previously.
Sure they only got 2% in 2019 but that was when they only had 275 candidates - the clear Brexit vote was for Boris’ Tories. So with that in mind (and Farage’s return) it’s easier to see Reform’s baseline a bit higher than it might initially seem.
If you think the Tories are going to get 25-30% then you could get on ‘Conservative Vote Percentage 24.00% or higher’ which is currently 4.1 on BF Exchange. I’m not on this market on either side but that looks good if you are bullish.
Either way - I can’t believe anyone can say this is a ‘boring’ election - it seems absolutely fascinating from a lot of angles!
I'm expecting there to be a gradual shift back to the Tories, and also that they will outperform the polls as they usually do when in government. So perhaps to 27% or so in the polls, which isn't so far away from the upper end of the range now.
I base my Reform estimate on how they have polled in by-elections, compared to the national polling at the time - they seem to get about 60% of what I would expect if the polls are right. Why this is so when compared to UKIP in 2015, I don't know. Even less of an organisation on the ground, perhaps?
Even so, something like 40/29 would still mean a hefty defeat in terms of seats, on the scale of 1997.
EDIT: Forgot to add - and certainly not a boring election, even if no electioneering is taking place anywhere I go.
Partly true, and partly untrue. Johnson, Truss, and Sunak were indeed appalling, and chose a lot of appalling people. But, the problems of bad candidates, funnelling money to core voters, and loading the burden of austerity onto younger people predate them.
The Tories chased the dragon to the right and are about to go extinct.
Moving further right will not fix their existential problem.
What would you say was more right than say Cameron in 2015? We have had at least five years of heavy state spending, heavy big government solutions, and a lot of centralised planning across many elements of society and the economy, easily of a scale much greater than the 97-2010 labour government.
Comments
None exist in our form in all places at all times.
In 2024 we have much more diverse population (notably so in the cities, less so in rural parts). Homosexuality is no longer illegal and widely accepted, as is same sex marriage etc. Nearly half of all kids go to University were they (hopefully) mingle with all races, genders, political thought etc. Its no wonder that older folk fail to agree with the youth - they were raised in different times.
Some like to say that science advances with every funeral (or similar). Often older academics can reject more modern theories (although I suspect its less common than the archetype). I think its a bit true for society too. Some people form views very early and never change (Corbyn, Farage seem equal and opposing examples). Others move with the times.
I struggle with transgenderism. I'm open about this. I cannot imagine what it must be like to think that you are a different gender to what you body presents. I don't think that there is anyway that a trans person can ever fully transition. But I also think they disserve compassion and respect like anyone else.
https://x.com/NoContextBrits/status/1802664388333105401/photo/1
Some of the detail in the article is more interesting.
Note that, given the large number of such kits available relatively early in the pandemic, we didn't make very good use of them until much later on.
"Track and trace" ended up being a huge waste of resources, which could have been terminated much earlier, in favour of (almost free in comparison) home testing.
When it came to deportations, Blair was appeasing a lot of his party's own voters.
https://worldsocionics.blogspot.com
"Jack Oliver Aaron
@worldsocionics
Business psychologist and founder of the World Socionics Society. Specialist in personality type."
https://x.com/worldsocionics?lang=en
I will agree that in the 80s Reagan and Thatcher were so hung up on the Soviet threat they soft soaped the apartheid government too much. But that is not the same thing as supporting it.
When you post a poll can you post a link if there is one.
The vast majority of the public wanted to be lockdowns, test every day, etc etc etc. The media and the public wouldn't accept some sort of sensible comprises. When Boris took the right decision on omnicron, the reaction was again he is killing grannies. The official advice and unofficial pressure groups / media was always its still too dangerous, zero covid, etc.
Smethwick election 1964. The row is one of my very early political memories.
See, for example, the article about it in the Guardian 15 Oct 2014. I won't link as it uses the N word in full but it isn't hard to find.
I think we ought to give the Tory party (for whom I am not voting this time) credit for genuinely renouncing this shameful piece of history.
Also for the first time ever the first leaflet and personal letter from the Tory Candidate arrived after I'd already voted, which suggest a lack of volunteers compared to previous elections despite being under more pressure this time than since taking the seat back in 2001.
Still nothing from Labour since they canvassed my house last week, or from Reform (or the others, but I wouldn't expect anything).
- Cons to beat REFUK in vote share is 1.38. If you think many Tories will ‘come home’ on polling day that’s excellent.
- You can lay REFUK to win 7 or more seats at 3.7 - that’s extremely good odds if you think they will only win 1 or 2 seats at most, as a lot of people on here do.
Full disclosure that I’m on the other side of the above bets but if I was bullish on the Tories, there is stonking value in backing them to outperform current expectations.Any other constituencies seeing as much business ?
UK (GB), JL Partners poll:
Preferred Prime Minister
Keir Starmer (LAB-S&D): 35%
Rishi Sunak (CON~ECR): 19%
Nigel Farage (REFORM~NI): 17%
Ed Davey (LDEM-RE): 7%
Fieldwork: 14-16 July 2024
Sample size: 2,083"
https://x.com/EuropeElects
I disagree with this "Jews Don't Count" narrative. I spoke at length after Oct 7th about my own Jewishness and lack thereof (my Grandfather's family were Russian / Polish Jews who had to flee during a pogrom under one of the last Tsars, but I don't claim any form of Jewish identity or experience). But there is an ability for many Jewish people to "pass" as white and be assimilated into whiteness that is not afforded to black people - and that comes with a different form of racism.
I would agree with you, though, that Starmer has largely brushed the issue under the carpet; ignoring the report into his own party that highlighted that there is a feeling of hierarchy of racism within the Labour party and that it does disadvantage specifically black and Muslim members / politicians.
Labour 0%
Tories 0%
Judea The Awesome People's Party 100%
RESULT: Judea The Awesome People's Party landslide
Sorry, no links
(1) Use lethal force
(2) Renegotiate the web of international treaties to legally deport en-masse
(3) Offer anyone who wants to come a ride
Reform would never do (1) - worth noting the Greeks already seem to have been doing a bit of it though, on the sly - and the Conservatives aren't organised enough to do (2) and could never do (3). So what you get is bluster.
I expect Labour want to do (3) but will instead pretend they're doing (2), and also with a lot of bluster.
The problem will fester.
Sadly most Labour supporters and politicians haven't yet apologised for trying to give us a Prime Minister who was an apologist for anti-Semitic tropes. Only 5 years ago.
@DavidGauke
on who is to blame
https://conservativehome.com/2024/06/17/david-gauke-the-tory-right-will-try-to-shift-the-blame-but-the-looming-electoral-disaster-is-of-their-making/
Also he had drugs and past convictions.
I was never a why can't I test 27 times a day on the government dime. Initially, f##king stay away from people, particularly oldies. You don't need to test that frequently unless specific scenarios. Then it was well I going to get this.
I dare say, if the 5pm poll really is spicy as that Election Maps tweet implied, that there may be even better value for Conservative backers in an hour’s time.
I googled 'man has sex with leaves' which means I am going to get interesting adverts for the next few months.
Without the extended fixation on 'track and trace', well beyond the point at which it was obviously futile, we might at least have saved some tens of billions, even if the pandemic would have progressed in more or less the same manner.
But all advice / pressure from every direction was but think of the Grannies. The economic side of it doesn't matter. Sunak once spoke to the group who had a differing opinion (but included some very weird individuals), but even if he did raise the economic aspect on this with cabinet, it didn't go anywhere.
I also can't believe that Reform will poll 10% when it comes to actual votes.
I hadn't realised we had quite such a large supply of them early on. We might at least have got some value out of the excess billions we paid to secure an early supply - and we didn't.
I do tend to agree politicians of all parties aren't in an ideal place to throw stones, though. They've just about all stood by someone, or failed to criticise them as they probably should have, for reasons of political convenience at one time or another.
just for fun, MiC had the Tories ahead in the SW in the sub sample. First Tory lead in any region I've seen in months. NOTE - Just For Fun!
There's a difference between actions you'd take for the whole country and actions to take for specific vulnerable groups. With the vast majority of the country vaccinated it provided the basis for a wholesale change in strategy. The subsequent rates of hospitalisation and death have vindicated such a shift in strategy post-vaccination.
Moving further right will not fix their existential problem.
Either way, that's something considerably worse than "silly".
I just looked on Wikipedia - unless I’ve missed something, the last time the Tories were on 30% in ANY opinion poll from ANY pollster was 7-9 July 2023 (Savanta) - almost a year ago!
I think the difference vs past elections, is even if you think Reform will fade away, they are much more of a factor than previously.
Sure they only got 2% in 2019 but that was when they only had 275 candidates - the clear Brexit vote was for Boris’ Tories. So with that in mind (and Farage’s return) it’s easier to see Reform’s baseline a bit higher than it might initially seem.
If you think the Tories are going to get 25-30% then you could get on ‘Conservative Vote Percentage 24.00% or higher’ which is currently 4.1 on BF Exchange. I’m not on this market on either side but that looks good if you are bullish.
Either way - I can’t believe anyone can say this is a ‘boring’ election - it seems absolutely fascinating from a lot of angles!
The testing centres became redundant.
(As should, much earlier, the debate over lockdowns, which they ought to have rendered unnecessary.)
We're also pretty united on the antivax bollocks that people like Andrew Bridgen and the GB News mob put out.
Just look at how Liz Truss was derided by so many Tories for her pro Trump bullshit.
This Reform lot are worse than the CND mob.
A merger would fall apart very easily.
A valid defence is any of the following:
* Travelled on scheduled plane, train or ferry.
* British (or Irish Citizen) or have leave to remain at time of journey
* Travelled directly from country of persecution (and did not go via a safe country) and claiming Asylum.
Prison/Youth Detention centre for the purpose built on Falkland Islands.
https://www.facebook.com/groups/www.radcliffefirst.co.uk/posts/1905814806599918/
I base my Reform estimate on how they have polled in by-elections, compared to the national polling at the time - they seem to get about 60% of what I would expect if the polls are right. Why this is so when compared to UKIP in 2015, I don't know. Even less of an organisation on the ground, perhaps?
Even so, something like 40/29 would still mean a hefty defeat in terms of seats, on the scale of 1997.
EDIT: Forgot to add - and certainly not a boring election, even if no electioneering is taking place anywhere I go.