EXCLUSIVE: Gossip is flying round senior Tory circles that David Cameron is planning to return to the Commons in an early by-election in autumn or spring. And then he will become the "One Nation" group's next leadership contender ⬇️
If that is a correct interpretation, then we can ignore any of these stories.
“A life peerage cannot be relinquished. However, the House of Lords Reform Act 2014 enables a life peer to resign from being a member of the House.
There are also limited circumstances where hereditary peerages can be ‘disclaimed’. The Peerage Act 1963 enables hereditary peers to renounce their titles for life. The 1963 act sets out requirements that must be met to do this”.
They can renounce it to some kind of "won't sit in the Lords" level that allows them to stand, iirc. Can't remember the details.
🚨New Voting Intention🚨 Labour lead by 27 points in our latest poll. Con 19% (-2) Lab 46% (-) Lib Dem 10% (+1) Reform 16% (+4) SNP 2% (-2) Green 5% (-) Other 1% (-1) Fieldwork: 14th - 17th June 2024 Sample: 1,383 GB adults (Changes from 6th - 8th June 2024)
I'm just so glad Rishi called an early election to wrongfoot Reform.
EXCLUSIVE: Gossip is flying round senior Tory circles that David Cameron is planning to return to the Commons in an early by-election in autumn or spring. And then he will become the "One Nation" group's next leadership contender ⬇️
If that is a correct interpretation, then we can ignore any of these stories.
“A life peerage cannot be relinquished. However, the House of Lords Reform Act 2014 enables a life peer to resign from being a member of the House.
There are also limited circumstances where hereditary peerages can be ‘disclaimed’. The Peerage Act 1963 enables hereditary peers to renounce their titles for life. The 1963 act sets out requirements that must be met to do this”.
Until a couple of weeks ago, the government could presumably have passed a law to make their whims legal.
Boy, the impotence of opposition is going to come as a shock.
Apart from the SDP manifesto which was all over the place, the Reform manifesto is the most distinct from others (Green/LD/Lab/Con).
The weakest on housing of all the parties so far, saying nothing whatsoever. Plenty of red meat to excite the target audience, on immigration, crime, wokeness, probably quite effective. Surprisingly little on Brexit.
Call it a B- : not appealing to me, but short, straightforward, and probably appealing to many disaffected Tories.
The savings/costs seem to be random.
The IFS ripped all their mathematics to pieces. It is a fantasy. The good news for Reform being that many voters are, to varying degrees, cakeist and fantasist, so won't be put off at all.
🚨New Voting Intention🚨 Labour lead by 27 points in our latest poll. Con 19% (-2) Lab 46% (-) Lib Dem 10% (+1) Reform 16% (+4) SNP 2% (-2) Green 5% (-) Other 1% (-1) Fieldwork: 14th - 17th June 2024 Sample: 1,383 GB adults (Changes from 6th - 8th June 2024)
I don't believe Lab 46.
If you look at the crosstabs on Deltapoll, they have more 2016 Labour Leavers sticking with the party than Labour Remainers, which seems hard to believe. I think they're undersampling the Labour -> Leave -> Boris voter.
An entirely unhelpful and counterproductive comment by Gauke that simply fires the starting pistol in an interfratricidal war.
The Party must be better than this.
Gauke is pretty irrelevant now anyway. I think the Tories have a choice. They can work out how to appeal to a sustainable version of the 2019 vote and follow recent trends going back years, and move their centre of gravity away from London and away from corporatist policies, becoming like the Republicans; or they can double down on being a Cameroon/Orange Book party, squeezing out the LibDems.
Personally, I think if they do the latter they’ll never see power again, because the Labour shift towards urban areas is moving it into exactly the same space. But who knows.
Labour could get a 200 odd seat majority with 40% of the vote.
This is very worrying.
It would be really great if the Conservatives, or what’s left of them, could start addressing their own problems and why they may be about to get a shellacking.
Rather than the system from which they have benefited for 33 out of the last 47 years.
That's the Deltapoll Baxtered. So no questions at most PMQ's. 3 letters needed for a leadership challenge. Endless fun.
It has seemed obvious for ages that this is potentially the most game changing election since 1945, but I wonder if in fact you have to go back to Earl Grey taking over in 1830 and the events of 1832 for a greater change making time in parliament. If the Tories are rendered extinct I think this may be true. And it really could happen.
And as one who has voted Tory always in GEs for 50 years and certainly won't this time, it also feels a bit sad - like Act 5 of Lear or something. I don't like this, but I'm going to stay awake to see what happens.
That's the Deltapoll Baxtered. So no questions at most PMQ's. 3 letters needed for a leadership challenge. Endless fun.
Christ every time the Tory leader so much as breathes there'll be a challenge. Can they even staff the '22 cmtte with that few MPs? As someone who is very green on Tories coming 3rd or 4th I wouldn't be unhappy with this outcome.
🚨New Voting Intention🚨 Labour lead by 27 points in our latest poll. Con 19% (-2) Lab 46% (-) Lib Dem 10% (+1) Reform 16% (+4) SNP 2% (-2) Green 5% (-) Other 1% (-1) Fieldwork: 14th - 17th June 2024 Sample: 1,383 GB adults (Changes from 6th - 8th June 2024)
I'm just so glad Rishi called an early election to wrongfoot Reform.
The best call since the Earl of Cardigan at Sevastapol*.
EXCLUSIVE: Leaked WhatsApps expose secret plot to disrupt Labour's private schools plan
A viral message being shared on WhatsApp and Facebook urges private school parents to create 'panic' by pretending they’re going to move their kids to a state school
I'd certainly panic if my kids' schools were suddenly inundated by throngs of Jocastas and Benedicts all being dropped off by Range Rover and asking the way to the hockey pitch.
Freeze ‘non-essential’ immigration to boost wages, protect public services, end housing crisis, cut crime.
What a load of crap.
You could cut net migration to zero today and the housing crisis will remain every bit as acute as everyone in here already will still need a house.
The only way to end the housing crisis is to construct massively more housing.
Migration adds to the amount of new housing needed, but new housing is needed either way.
That's numerically false. If you have zero net migration and a below replacement fertility rate, the amount of available housing per person would go up even without any building.
Apart from the SDP manifesto which was all over the place, the Reform manifesto is the most distinct from others (Green/LD/Lab/Con).
The weakest on housing of all the parties so far, saying nothing whatsoever. Plenty of red meat to excite the target audience, on immigration, crime, wokeness, probably quite effective. Surprisingly little on Brexit.
Call it a B- : not appealing to me, but short, straightforward, and probably appealing to many disaffected Tories.
The savings/costs seem to be random.
The IFS ripped all their mathematics to pieces. It is a fantasy. The good news for Reform being that many voters are, to varying degrees, cakeist and fantasist, so won't be put off at all.
Minor parties always get away with cakeism / totally unrealistic policies. Even Farage admitted at the press conference that it is. It is more signalling how you differ from the mainstream.
Apart from the SDP manifesto which was all over the place, the Reform manifesto is the most distinct from others (Green/LD/Lab/Con).
The weakest on housing of all the parties so far, saying nothing whatsoever. Plenty of red meat to excite the target audience, on immigration, crime, wokeness, probably quite effective. Surprisingly little on Brexit.
Call it a B- : not appealing to me, but short, straightforward, and probably appealing to many disaffected Tories.
The savings/costs seem to be random.
The IFS ripped all their mathematics to pieces. It is a fantasy. The good news for Reform being that many voters are, to varying degrees, cakeist and fantasist, so won't be put off at all.
The IFS can safely be dismissed as part of the conspiracy, I am sure.
Just got off the phone to my parents, who are splitting voting for the first time I can recall: Mum going for Reform and Dad staying Conservative.
I wonder if the polls are fairly real. Reform still probably overcooked, but more real than not.
Surveyed my parents & partners the last weekend - all live in a formerly Tory safe seat that is likely to go LD - from 1 Lab, 3 Con to 2 LD, 1 Con, 1 RFM was the conclusion. Not great for them.
EXCLUSIVE: Gossip is flying round senior Tory circles that David Cameron is planning to return to the Commons in an early by-election in autumn or spring. And then he will become the "One Nation" group's next leadership contender ⬇️
Apart from the SDP manifesto which was all over the place, the Reform manifesto is the most distinct from others (Green/LD/Lab/Con).
The weakest on housing of all the parties so far, saying nothing whatsoever. Plenty of red meat to excite the target audience, on immigration, crime, wokeness, probably quite effective. Surprisingly little on Brexit.
Call it a B- : not appealing to me, but short, straightforward, and probably appealing to many disaffected Tories.
The savings/costs seem to be random.
The IFS ripped all their mathematics to pieces. It is a fantasy. The good news for Reform being that many voters are, to varying degrees, cakeist and fantasist, so won't be put off at all.
Strangely, Guido who has been ramping Reform and who usually includes a lot of detail about criticisms of manifesto pledges including from the IFS, appears silent on this one so far.
🚨New Voting Intention🚨 Labour lead by 27 points in our latest poll. Con 19% (-2) Lab 46% (-) Lib Dem 10% (+1) Reform 16% (+4) SNP 2% (-2) Green 5% (-) Other 1% (-1) Fieldwork: 14th - 17th June 2024 Sample: 1,383 GB adults (Changes from 6th - 8th June 2024)
I'm just so glad Rishi called an early election to wrongfoot Reform.
The best call since the Earl of Cardigan at Sevastapol*.
*or whomever is best placed to be blamed.
I can only conclude that Labour are absolutely fucking brilliant at placing plants ready to play the long game.
So it looks like Brexit is quite possibly going to destroy the Tory Party. It's not what I want to see, not really, but there's a certain justice there.
EXCLUSIVE: Leaked WhatsApps expose secret plot to disrupt Labour's private schools plan
A viral message being shared on WhatsApp and Facebook urges private school parents to create 'panic' by pretending they’re going to move their kids to a state school
I'd certainly panic if my kids' schools were suddenly inundated by throngs of Jocastas and Benedicts all being dropped off by Range Rover and asking the way to the hockey pitch.
Just got off the phone to my parents, who are splitting voting for the first time I can recall: Mum going for Reform and Dad staying Conservative.
I wonder if the polls are fairly real. Reform still probably overcooked, but more real than not.
That's my general position - not reaching the heights suggested, but enough to be devasting, not just very damaging.
I think various Reform leaning voters are getting more excited at the prospect, not worried about consequences if the Tories get destroyed.
I don't know of a single person, except Tory employees and local council candidates who intend to vote Tory.
A shy voter effect may be so extreme even polling companies cannot account for it. But to be so far out they are not in danger of extinction? Doesn't seem likely.
Apart from the SDP manifesto which was all over the place, the Reform manifesto is the most distinct from others (Green/LD/Lab/Con).
The weakest on housing of all the parties so far, saying nothing whatsoever. Plenty of red meat to excite the target audience, on immigration, crime, wokeness, probably quite effective. Surprisingly little on Brexit.
Call it a B- : not appealing to me, but short, straightforward, and probably appealing to many disaffected Tories.
The savings/costs seem to be random.
The IFS ripped all their mathematics to pieces. It is a fantasy. The good news for Reform being that many voters are, to varying degrees, cakeist and fantasist, so won't be put off at all.
Minor parties always get away with cakeism / totally unrealistic policies. Even Farage admitted at the press conference that it is. It is more signalling how you differ from the mainstream.
Indeed. That's probably enough to bag the angriest fifth of voters. They'll need a lot of luck and better judgment if they're going to try to eat the Tories alive.
Just got off the phone to my parents, who are splitting voting for the first time I can recall: Mum going for Reform and Dad staying Conservative.
I wonder if the polls are fairly real. Reform still probably overcooked, but more real than not.
Surveyed my parents & partners the last weekend - all live in a formerly Tory safe seat that is likely to go LD - from 1 Lab, 3 Con to 2 LD, 1 Con, 1 RFM was the conclusion. Not great for them.
The Conservatives just seem to have totally eviscerated their base.
The only saving grace is that there's still a decent fundamental centre-right vote out there in the 35-40% range.
So it looks like Brexit is quite possibly going to destroy the Tory Party. It's not what I want to see, not really, but there's a certain justice there.
EXCLUSIVE: Gossip is flying round senior Tory circles that David Cameron is planning to return to the Commons in an early by-election in autumn or spring. And then he will become the "One Nation" group's next leadership contender ⬇️
From the excellent Beyond Topline on the strength of the Lib Dem Tactical Vote
“@OwenWntr: Interesting some polling data I'm looking at has Lib Dem retention from 2019 at 78% in seats where they came 1st or 2nd, and 44% where they didn't”
This *strongly* suggests the Lib Dem bump is due to tactical voting.
If this is replicated in a general election, this implies *much* stronger tactical voting than 1997.
In 1997, Lib Dems retained ~64.5% of their 1992 vote where they were 2nd, ~50% where Labour was.
I have been extremely bullish on Lib Dem seat totals because of the above - the increased prevalence of tactical voting websites COMBINED with the fact that unlike in 2019, it’s A. Starmer instead of Corbyn, and B. Brexit being ‘done’ - makes it much much easier for Lib Dem and Labour voters to vote ‘for the other one’
So the incredible amazing superb “Beyond Topline” has woken up to the DUTCH SALUTE …two years after it was explained and predicted on PB? oh - Whoopee flipping doo. 🤮
They only had to go into PB, search on Dutch Salute, the promise of the current late Lab > LibDem drift as TVs firm up leading to 16% LibDem PV was all there - and prior to vote day, that declining Labour vote in the last weeks, days and on the day, even closing Tory to Lab gap (if Sunak hadn’t been utterly shit) getting (some, the dumb ones) Tories ever so excited at shrinking Lab share, even though it actually means they are on a beach excited about the sea recede away to nothing in front of them, so it means these ignorant idiots actually excited about a bizarre occurrence going on in front of them, that’s about to wipe them out.
And all those of everyone who went gangbusters, laughing and laughing at MoonRabbit and wetting themselves, when I posted TWO YEARS ago now, Thangham Debonaire will lose to a Green - have collective amnesia that they should have been first on ahead of the rest and on at the best odds. Because they were flipping told.
Enough now.
Okay, not sure what prompted this - I’ve been very hot on this for a while and have been trumpeting bullishness on the LDs and Reform in particular. My main bets this election a few weeks ago:
- Lib Dem and REFUK ‘Most Seats Without Labour’ - Labour 500+ Seats - Labour above 418.5 seats - REFUK to have higher vote share than Cons - REFUK to win 1 or more seats (laying 0) - REFUK to win 7 or more seats - Lib Dem over 40.5 seats - Cons under 140.5 seats - Cons 0-49 seats
I don’t expect all the above to happen, many were initially trading bets - but the moment to trade out has not yet come.
The LD tactical vote efficiency has been ignored IMO because it’s the first election where the lack of Brexit+Corbyn combines with the growth of social media sharing tactical vote websites, to make it a thing fully.
My attention is now the constituency lines where odds look better. Thank you to @Quincel I think (but apologies if it was someone else!!) for the Sutton and Cheam LD tip, it looks very good.
Apart from the SDP manifesto which was all over the place, the Reform manifesto is the most distinct from others (Green/LD/Lab/Con).
The weakest on housing of all the parties so far, saying nothing whatsoever. Plenty of red meat to excite the target audience, on immigration, crime, wokeness, probably quite effective. Surprisingly little on Brexit.
Call it a B- : not appealing to me, but short, straightforward, and probably appealing to many disaffected Tories.
The savings/costs seem to be random.
The IFS ripped all their mathematics to pieces. It is a fantasy. The good news for Reform being that many voters are, to varying degrees, cakeist and fantasist, so won't be put off at all.
Minor parties always get away with cakeism / totally unrealistic policies. Even Farage admitted at the press conference that it is. It is more signalling how you differ from the mainstream.
Indeed. That's probably enough to bag the angriest fifth of voters. They'll need a lot of luck and better judgment if they're going to try to eat the Tories alive.
Seems more like Farage plan is a reverse merger / takeover of the Tories and using protest vote to Reform as platform for that.
EXCLUSIVE: Leaked WhatsApps expose secret plot to disrupt Labour's private schools plan
A viral message being shared on WhatsApp and Facebook urges private school parents to create 'panic' by pretending they’re going to move their kids to a state school
I'd certainly panic if my kids' schools were suddenly inundated by throngs of Jocastas and Benedicts all being dropped off by Range Rover and asking the way to the hockey pitch.
Your nasty class warfare shames you.
Whatever they taught you at school, it obviously wasn't a sense of humour 😜.
🚨New Voting Intention🚨 Labour lead by 27 points in our latest poll. Con 19% (-2) Lab 46% (-) Lib Dem 10% (+1) Reform 16% (+4) SNP 2% (-2) Green 5% (-) Other 1% (-1) Fieldwork: 14th - 17th June 2024 Sample: 1,383 GB adults (Changes from 6th - 8th June 2024)
I'm just so glad Rishi called an early election to wrongfoot Reform.
The best call since the Earl of Cardigan at Sevastapol*.
*or whomever is best placed to be blamed.
I can only conclude that Labour are absolutely fucking brilliant at placing plants ready to play the long game.
I've heard three theories from reliable sources on why Rishi went for July, I'll only discuss two of them.
1) He has had enough of the criticism and realised if he went in July or November the result would be largely the same
2) He was worried about an Oct/Nov election getting entangled with the US election. We all know some Tories will back Trump, which is a vote loser, then you've got Trump commentating on the election which could be messy.
Apart from the SDP manifesto which was all over the place, the Reform manifesto is the most distinct from others (Green/LD/Lab/Con).
The weakest on housing of all the parties so far, saying nothing whatsoever. Plenty of red meat to excite the target audience, on immigration, crime, wokeness, probably quite effective. Surprisingly little on Brexit.
Call it a B- : not appealing to me, but short, straightforward, and probably appealing to many disaffected Tories.
The savings/costs seem to be random.
The IFS ripped all their mathematics to pieces. It is a fantasy. The good news for Reform being that many voters are, to varying degrees, cakeist and fantasist, so won't be put off at all.
Well quite. Apart from the culture war, immigration, and drugs stuff it's practically my fantasy government. Since I have an IQ greater than that of a lettuce (arguably) it's obvious it's fantasy due to the whole vaguely balancing a budget thing. Sadly many post 2019 conservative voters (and one leader) are lettuces so it should do well. I can't see who that is considering Reform atm would be put off. I can see some of the hardcore remaining Tories being interested.
Freeze ‘non-essential’ immigration to boost wages, protect public services, end housing crisis, cut crime.
What a load of crap.
You could cut net migration to zero today and the housing crisis will remain every bit as acute as everyone in here already will still need a house.
The only way to end the housing crisis is to construct massively more housing.
Migration adds to the amount of new housing needed, but new housing is needed either way.
That's numerically false. If you have zero net migration and a below replacement fertility rate, the amount of available housing per person would go up even without any building.
That assumes constant household size.
I think I'm right in saying that older people disproportionately 'over-occupy' housing so the effect of natural churn would counteract any tendency for younger people to have smaller households.
To give a concrete example, an elderly couple occupying a four-bedroom house could be bought by a younger couple starting a family, which could free up two single-person dwellings.
🚨New Voting Intention🚨 Labour lead by 27 points in our latest poll. Con 19% (-2) Lab 46% (-) Lib Dem 10% (+1) Reform 16% (+4) SNP 2% (-2) Green 5% (-) Other 1% (-1) Fieldwork: 14th - 17th June 2024 Sample: 1,383 GB adults (Changes from 6th - 8th June 2024)
I'm just so glad Rishi called an early election to wrongfoot Reform.
The best call since the Earl of Cardigan at Sevastapol*.
*or whomever is best placed to be blamed.
I can only conclude that Labour are absolutely fucking brilliant at placing plants ready to play the long game.
I've heard three theories from reliable sources on why Rishi went for July, I'll only discuss two of them.
1) He has had enough of the criticism and realised if he went in July or November the result would be largely the same
2) He was worried about an Oct/Nov election getting entangled with the US election. We all know some Tories will back Trump, which is a vote loser, then you've got Trump commentating on the election which could be messy.
EXCLUSIVE: Leaked WhatsApps expose secret plot to disrupt Labour's private schools plan
A viral message being shared on WhatsApp and Facebook urges private school parents to create 'panic' by pretending they’re going to move their kids to a state school
I'd certainly panic if my kids' schools were suddenly inundated by throngs of Jocastas and Benedicts all being dropped off by Range Rover and asking the way to the hockey pitch.
Your nasty class warfare shames you.
Whatever they taught you at school, it obviously wasn't a sense of humour 😜.
Please, if there's one thing I am noted for is my legendary modesty is having a sense of humour.
🚨New Voting Intention🚨 Labour lead by 27 points in our latest poll. Con 19% (-2) Lab 46% (-) Lib Dem 10% (+1) Reform 16% (+4) SNP 2% (-2) Green 5% (-) Other 1% (-1) Fieldwork: 14th - 17th June 2024 Sample: 1,383 GB adults (Changes from 6th - 8th June 2024)
I'm just so glad Rishi called an early election to wrongfoot Reform.
The best call since the Earl of Cardigan at Sevastapol*.
*or whomever is best placed to be blamed.
I can only conclude that Labour are absolutely fucking brilliant at placing plants ready to play the long game.
I've heard three theories from reliable sources on why Rishi went for July, I'll only discuss two of them.
1) He has had enough of the criticism and realised if he went in July or November the result would be largely the same
2) He was worried about an Oct/Nov election getting entangled with the US election. We all know some Tories will back Trump, which is a vote loser, then you've got Trump commentating on the election which could be messy.
It's (1) - he couldn't be arsed anymore and arrogance explains the rest.
Just got off the phone to my parents, who are splitting voting for the first time I can recall: Mum going for Reform and Dad staying Conservative.
I wonder if the polls are fairly real. Reform still probably overcooked, but more real than not.
Surveyed my parents & partners the last weekend - all live in a formerly Tory safe seat that is likely to go LD - from 1 Lab, 3 Con to 2 LD, 1 Con, 1 RFM was the conclusion. Not great for them.
The Conservatives just seem to have totally eviscerated their base.
The only saving grace is that there's still a decent fundamental centre-right vote out there in the 35-40% range.
A best case scenario, in 2029 you get a moderate Conservative party standing against a Labour party that's put the squeeze on the middle classes for the last five years, and that 35-40%ish coalesce around a suitably chastened Conservative party that has remembered who its voters are.
A worst case scenario, you get a Suella type in charge of the Conservatives, chasing the Reform vote and losing even more centrist voters, campaigning on culture war and small boat immigration type stuff, and they get another kicking in 2029.
I know which one I'd rather see, but at this point, I'm afraid the latter is more likely to happen.
Apart from the SDP manifesto which was all over the place, the Reform manifesto is the most distinct from others (Green/LD/Lab/Con).
The weakest on housing of all the parties so far, saying nothing whatsoever. Plenty of red meat to excite the target audience, on immigration, crime, wokeness, probably quite effective. Surprisingly little on Brexit.
Call it a B- : not appealing to me, but short, straightforward, and probably appealing to many disaffected Tories.
The savings/costs seem to be random.
The IFS ripped all their mathematics to pieces. It is a fantasy. The good news for Reform being that many voters are, to varying degrees, cakeist and fantasist, so won't be put off at all.
Minor parties always get away with cakeism / totally unrealistic policies. Even Farage admitted at the press conference that it is. It is more signalling how you differ from the mainstream.
Indeed. That's probably enough to bag the angriest fifth of voters. They'll need a lot of luck and better judgment if they're going to try to eat the Tories alive.
Seems more like Farage plan is a reverse merger / takeover of the Tories and using protest vote to Reform as platform for that.
Seems plausible.
Tories reduced to under 100, Reform with say 1-10. At least one Tory leader candidate says merger is the answer, maybe they succeed, then Reform agrees and Farage and Tice (if elected) get plum roles in the Shadow Cabinet.
🚨New Voting Intention🚨 Labour lead by 27 points in our latest poll. Con 19% (-2) Lab 46% (-) Lib Dem 10% (+1) Reform 16% (+4) SNP 2% (-2) Green 5% (-) Other 1% (-1) Fieldwork: 14th - 17th June 2024 Sample: 1,383 GB adults (Changes from 6th - 8th June 2024)
I'm just so glad Rishi called an early election to wrongfoot Reform.
The best call since the Earl of Cardigan at Sevastapol*.
*or whomever is best placed to be blamed.
I can only conclude that Labour are absolutely fucking brilliant at placing plants ready to play the long game.
I've heard three theories from reliable sources on why Rishi went for July, I'll only discuss two of them.
1) He has had enough of the criticism and realised if he went in July or November the result would be largely the same
2) He was worried about an Oct/Nov election getting entangled with the US election. We all know some Tories will back Trump, which is a vote loser, then you've got Trump commentating on the election which could be messy.
The third reason regarding needing a relatively clear campaigning schedule is the one I buy. That or he was deluded to think a small downtick in inflation was a real vote winner.
Just got off the phone to my parents, who are splitting voting for the first time I can recall: Mum going for Reform and Dad staying Conservative.
I wonder if the polls are fairly real. Reform still probably overcooked, but more real than not.
Surveyed my parents & partners the last weekend - all live in a formerly Tory safe seat that is likely to go LD - from 1 Lab, 3 Con to 2 LD, 1 Con, 1 RFM was the conclusion. Not great for them.
The Conservatives just seem to have totally eviscerated their base.
The only saving grace is that there's still a decent fundamental centre-right vote out there in the 35-40% range.
A best case scenario, in 2029 you get a moderate Conservative party standing against a Labour party that's put the squeeze on the middle classes for the last five years, and that 35-40%ish coalesce around a suitably chastened Conservative party that has remembered who its voters are.
A worst case scenario, you get a Suella type in charge of the Conservatives, chasing the Reform vote and losing even more centrist voters, campaigning on culture war and small boat immigration type stuff, and they get another kicking in 2029.
I know which one I'd rather see, but at this point, I'm afraid the latter is more likely to happen.
Yep. All I will say is that immigration is a dog that cannot be ignored.
But, it requires guile and political skill to solve it.
Just got off the phone to my parents, who are splitting voting for the first time I can recall: Mum going for Reform and Dad staying Conservative.
I wonder if the polls are fairly real. Reform still probably overcooked, but more real than not.
Surveyed my parents & partners the last weekend - all live in a formerly Tory safe seat that is likely to go LD - from 1 Lab, 3 Con to 2 LD, 1 Con, 1 RFM was the conclusion. Not great for them.
The Conservatives just seem to have totally eviscerated their base.
The only saving grace is that there's still a decent fundamental centre-right vote out there in the 35-40% range.
They have done something I never would have thought possible. They have convinced some swing voters and some of their core that they are incompetent and extreme; whilst convincing the rest of their swing voters and core that they are incompetent and basically Labour. It’s genius really. Alienate everyone and unite them on the incompetence point.
But I think we’re in a new, more volatile end, and we might discussing Labour’s obituary again in 2029.
Went for a walk with Surrey tory friend today and I’m not now convinced that she is going to vote tory afterall. She does have serious issues about how Labour is going to generate the growth it says and was again speaking about their tax rises.
But for the most part she went on and on and on and on about how the Conservative Party were no longer her Conservative Party. How they have become nasty and lost all values of decency. That they have gone so far to the extreme that they are unrecognisable from the Party for whom she has always voted.
Cue, perhaps, another true blue who no longer is.
*Don’t blame the voting system. Blame yourselves.*
EXCLUSIVE: Gossip is flying round senior Tory circles that David Cameron is planning to return to the Commons in an early by-election in autumn or spring. And then he will become the "One Nation" group's next leadership contender ⬇️
An entirely unhelpful and counterproductive comment by Gauke that simply fires the starting pistol in an interfratricidal war.
The Party must be better than this.
It's investing a huge amount too much importance in the notice anyone takes of Gauke to imagine him firing the starting pistol on anything. He's a bitter old ex-Tory irritant, nothing more.
EXCLUSIVE: Gossip is flying round senior Tory circles that David Cameron is planning to return to the Commons in an early by-election in autumn or spring. And then he will become the "One Nation" group's next leadership contender ⬇️
Apart from the SDP manifesto which was all over the place, the Reform manifesto is the most distinct from others (Green/LD/Lab/Con).
The weakest on housing of all the parties so far, saying nothing whatsoever. Plenty of red meat to excite the target audience, on immigration, crime, wokeness, probably quite effective. Surprisingly little on Brexit.
Call it a B- : not appealing to me, but short, straightforward, and probably appealing to many disaffected Tories.
The savings/costs seem to be random.
The IFS ripped all their mathematics to pieces. It is a fantasy. The good news for Reform being that many voters are, to varying degrees, cakeist and fantasist, so won't be put off at all.
Minor parties always get away with cakeism / totally unrealistic policies. Even Farage admitted at the press conference that it is. It is more signalling how you differ from the mainstream.
Indeed. That's probably enough to bag the angriest fifth of voters. They'll need a lot of luck and better judgment if they're going to try to eat the Tories alive.
Seems more like Farage plan is a reverse merger / takeover of the Tories and using protest vote to Reform as platform for that.
Seems plausible.
Tories reduced to under 100, Reform with say 1-10. At least one Tory leader candidate says merger is the answer, maybe they succeed, then Reform agrees and Farage and Tice (if elected) get plum roles in the Shadow Cabinet.
Is Tice standing? I had a look earlier and couldn’t see where.
🚨New Voting Intention🚨 Labour lead by 27 points in our latest poll. Con 19% (-2) Lab 46% (-) Lib Dem 10% (+1) Reform 16% (+4) SNP 2% (-2) Green 5% (-) Other 1% (-1) Fieldwork: 14th - 17th June 2024 Sample: 1,383 GB adults (Changes from 6th - 8th June 2024)
I don't believe Lab 46.
If you look at the crosstabs on Deltapoll, they have more 2016 Labour Leavers sticking with the party than Labour Remainers, which seems hard to believe. I think they're undersampling the Labour -> Leave -> Boris voter.
Those are subsamples, and unweighted. Thus your post is nonsense.
Apart from the SDP manifesto which was all over the place, the Reform manifesto is the most distinct from others (Green/LD/Lab/Con).
The weakest on housing of all the parties so far, saying nothing whatsoever. Plenty of red meat to excite the target audience, on immigration, crime, wokeness, probably quite effective. Surprisingly little on Brexit.
Call it a B- : not appealing to me, but short, straightforward, and probably appealing to many disaffected Tories.
The savings/costs seem to be random.
The IFS ripped all their mathematics to pieces. It is a fantasy. The good news for Reform being that many voters are, to varying degrees, cakeist and fantasist, so won't be put off at all.
Minor parties always get away with cakeism / totally unrealistic policies. Even Farage admitted at the press conference that it is. It is more signalling how you differ from the mainstream.
Indeed. That's probably enough to bag the angriest fifth of voters. They'll need a lot of luck and better judgment if they're going to try to eat the Tories alive.
Seems more like Farage plan is a reverse merger / takeover of the Tories and using protest vote to Reform as platform for that.
Seems plausible.
Tories reduced to under 100, Reform with say 1-10. At least one Tory leader candidate says merger is the answer, maybe they succeed, then Reform agrees and Farage and Tice (if elected) get plum roles in the Shadow Cabinet.
Is Tice standing? I had a look earlier and couldn’t see where.
Went for a walk with Surrey tory friend today and I’m not now convinced that she is going to vote tory afterall. She does have serious issues about how Labour is going to generate the growth it says and was again speaking about their tax rises.
But for the most part she went on and on and on and on about how the Conservative Party were no longer her Conservative Party. How they have become nasty and lost all values of decency. That they have gone so far to the extreme that they are unrecognisable from the Party for whom she has always voted.
Cue, perhaps, another true blue who no longer is.
*Don’t blame the voting system. Blame yourselves.*
Don't hate the player, hate the game.
Edit: pretty much the only funny parts of the film are the ones with Stephen Merchant in it:
EXCLUSIVE: Gossip is flying round senior Tory circles that David Cameron is planning to return to the Commons in an early by-election in autumn or spring. And then he will become the "One Nation" group's next leadership contender ⬇️
Just got off the phone to my parents, who are splitting voting for the first time I can recall: Mum going for Reform and Dad staying Conservative.
I wonder if the polls are fairly real. Reform still probably overcooked, but more real than not.
Surveyed my parents & partners the last weekend - all live in a formerly Tory safe seat that is likely to go LD - from 1 Lab, 3 Con to 2 LD, 1 Con, 1 RFM was the conclusion. Not great for them.
The Conservatives just seem to have totally eviscerated their base.
The only saving grace is that there's still a decent fundamental centre-right vote out there in the 35-40% range.
A best case scenario, in 2029 you get a moderate Conservative party standing against a Labour party that's put the squeeze on the middle classes for the last five years, and that 35-40%ish coalesce around a suitably chastened Conservative party that has remembered who its voters are.
A worst case scenario, you get a Suella type in charge of the Conservatives, chasing the Reform vote and losing even more centrist voters, campaigning on culture war and small boat immigration type stuff, and they get another kicking in 2029.
I know which one I'd rather see, but at this point, I'm afraid the latter is more likely to happen.
Yep. All I will say is that immigration is a dog that cannot be ignored.
But, it requires guile and political skill to solve it.
I've noticed lots of subsampling creeping back into PB, years after OGH rightly clamped down on it via a potent mix of persuasion and punishment.
I am not calling for the latter, simply for the proponents of this scurrilous behaviour to sound the Subsample Klaxon before indulging in such innumerate frivolities.
Just got off the phone to my parents, who are splitting voting for the first time I can recall: Mum going for Reform and Dad staying Conservative.
I wonder if the polls are fairly real. Reform still probably overcooked, but more real than not.
Surveyed my parents & partners the last weekend - all live in a formerly Tory safe seat that is likely to go LD - from 1 Lab, 3 Con to 2 LD, 1 Con, 1 RFM was the conclusion. Not great for them.
The Conservatives just seem to have totally eviscerated their base.
The only saving grace is that there's still a decent fundamental centre-right vote out there in the 35-40% range.
A best case scenario, in 2029 you get a moderate Conservative party standing against a Labour party that's put the squeeze on the middle classes for the last five years, and that 35-40%ish coalesce around a suitably chastened Conservative party that has remembered who its voters are.
A worst case scenario, you get a Suella type in charge of the Conservatives, chasing the Reform vote and losing even more centrist voters, campaigning on culture war and small boat immigration type stuff, and they get another kicking in 2029.
I know which one I'd rather see, but at this point, I'm afraid the latter is more likely to happen.
Yep. All I will say is that immigration is a dog that cannot be ignored.
But, it requires guile and political skill to solve it.
It also requires honesty from politicians instead of pretending to be opposed to it while driving it ever higher. Taking people,for mugs.
EXCLUSIVE: Gossip is flying round senior Tory circles that David Cameron is planning to return to the Commons in an early by-election in autumn or spring. And then he will become the "One Nation" group's next leadership contender ⬇️
Apart from the SDP manifesto which was all over the place, the Reform manifesto is the most distinct from others (Green/LD/Lab/Con).
The weakest on housing of all the parties so far, saying nothing whatsoever. Plenty of red meat to excite the target audience, on immigration, crime, wokeness, probably quite effective. Surprisingly little on Brexit.
Call it a B- : not appealing to me, but short, straightforward, and probably appealing to many disaffected Tories.
The savings/costs seem to be random.
The IFS ripped all their mathematics to pieces. It is a fantasy. The good news for Reform being that many voters are, to varying degrees, cakeist and fantasist, so won't be put off at all.
Minor parties always get away with cakeism / totally unrealistic policies. Even Farage admitted at the press conference that it is. It is more signalling how you differ from the mainstream.
Indeed. That's probably enough to bag the angriest fifth of voters. They'll need a lot of luck and better judgment if they're going to try to eat the Tories alive.
Seems more like Farage plan is a reverse merger / takeover of the Tories and using protest vote to Reform as platform for that.
Seems plausible.
Tories reduced to under 100, Reform with say 1-10. At least one Tory leader candidate says merger is the answer, maybe they succeed, then Reform agrees and Farage and Tice (if elected) get plum roles in the Shadow Cabinet.
Is Tice standing? I had a look earlier and couldn’t see where.
Apart from the SDP manifesto which was all over the place, the Reform manifesto is the most distinct from others (Green/LD/Lab/Con).
The weakest on housing of all the parties so far, saying nothing whatsoever. Plenty of red meat to excite the target audience, on immigration, crime, wokeness, probably quite effective. Surprisingly little on Brexit.
Call it a B- : not appealing to me, but short, straightforward, and probably appealing to many disaffected Tories.
The savings/costs seem to be random.
The IFS ripped all their mathematics to pieces. It is a fantasy. The good news for Reform being that many voters are, to varying degrees, cakeist and fantasist, so won't be put off at all.
Minor parties always get away with cakeism / totally unrealistic policies. Even Farage admitted at the press conference that it is. It is more signalling how you differ from the mainstream.
Indeed. That's probably enough to bag the angriest fifth of voters. They'll need a lot of luck and better judgment if they're going to try to eat the Tories alive.
Seems more like Farage plan is a reverse merger / takeover of the Tories and using protest vote to Reform as platform for that.
Seems plausible.
Tories reduced to under 100, Reform with say 1-10. At least one Tory leader candidate says merger is the answer, maybe they succeed, then Reform agrees and Farage and Tice (if elected) get plum roles in the Shadow Cabinet.
Is Tice standing? I had a look earlier and couldn’t see where.
Boston and Skegness innit?
Ah ok, so one they think is “more winnable” in relative terms.
🚨New Voting Intention🚨 Labour lead by 27 points in our latest poll. Con 19% (-2) Lab 46% (-) Lib Dem 10% (+1) Reform 16% (+4) SNP 2% (-2) Green 5% (-) Other 1% (-1) Fieldwork: 14th - 17th June 2024 Sample: 1,383 GB adults (Changes from 6th - 8th June 2024)
I'm just so glad Rishi called an early election to wrongfoot Reform.
The best call since the Earl of Cardigan at Sevastapol*.
*or whomever is best placed to be blamed.
I can only conclude that Labour are absolutely fucking brilliant at placing plants ready to play the long game.
I've heard three theories from reliable sources on why Rishi went for July, I'll only discuss two of them.
1) He has had enough of the criticism and realised if he went in July or November the result would be largely the same
2) He was worried about an Oct/Nov election getting entangled with the US election. We all know some Tories will back Trump, which is a vote loser, then you've got Trump commentating on the election which could be messy.
The obvious time to go was May.
Or late September and hope people had a good summer.
Apart from the SDP manifesto which was all over the place, the Reform manifesto is the most distinct from others (Green/LD/Lab/Con).
The weakest on housing of all the parties so far, saying nothing whatsoever. Plenty of red meat to excite the target audience, on immigration, crime, wokeness, probably quite effective. Surprisingly little on Brexit.
Call it a B- : not appealing to me, but short, straightforward, and probably appealing to many disaffected Tories.
The savings/costs seem to be random.
The IFS ripped all their mathematics to pieces. It is a fantasy. The good news for Reform being that many voters are, to varying degrees, cakeist and fantasist, so won't be put off at all.
Minor parties always get away with cakeism / totally unrealistic policies. Even Farage admitted at the press conference that it is. It is more signalling how you differ from the mainstream.
Indeed. That's probably enough to bag the angriest fifth of voters. They'll need a lot of luck and better judgment if they're going to try to eat the Tories alive.
Seems more like Farage plan is a reverse merger / takeover of the Tories and using protest vote to Reform as platform for that.
Seems plausible.
Tories reduced to under 100, Reform with say 1-10. At least one Tory leader candidate says merger is the answer, maybe they succeed, then Reform agrees and Farage and Tice (if elected) get plum roles in the Shadow Cabinet.
Is Tice standing? I had a look earlier and couldn’t see where.
That result leads to a really worrying situation for democracy.
You'd have the Lib Dems as the official opposition, and just 35 seats for Con and RefUK combined, despite their winning 36% of the national vote share combined.
I was dismissive last week of Cleitophon's concern of a 'January 6th style event' and to be honest I still am. But I could easily see how a Faragist insurgency spends the next five years whipping up discontent on the basis of 'the right wing were just 7% behind Labour in this election, but have virtually no representation in our Parliamentary system.'
I know that is how FPTP works, but it's not healthy for democracy when a large number of people no longer think the system is working for them, or adequately representing their voices in Parliament. You could see how a result like this could drive a small but not insignificant number of discontents into the arms of the 'democracy has failed us' far right types.
It's not sure about "really worrying situation" for our democracy.
The ending of certainties with which we've all become familiar can be difficult (look at what happened with the fall of the Warsaw Pact in 1989 and yet 35 years we still seem to see Russia as "the enemy" just as we did when the Red Army was two hours drive from the Rhine).
IF it happens it will be a seismic event for both the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats in different ways and for different reasons. I don't know what will happen and that's part of the "fun" - we really would be in uncharted territory.
🚨New Voting Intention🚨 Labour lead by 27 points in our latest poll. Con 19% (-2) Lab 46% (-) Lib Dem 10% (+1) Reform 16% (+4) SNP 2% (-2) Green 5% (-) Other 1% (-1) Fieldwork: 14th - 17th June 2024 Sample: 1,383 GB adults (Changes from 6th - 8th June 2024)
I'm just so glad Rishi called an early election to wrongfoot Reform.
The best call since the Earl of Cardigan at Sevastapol*.
*or whomever is best placed to be blamed.
I can only conclude that Labour are absolutely fucking brilliant at placing plants ready to play the long game.
I've heard three theories from reliable sources on why Rishi went for July, I'll only discuss two of them.
1) He has had enough of the criticism and realised if he went in July or November the result would be largely the same
2) He was worried about an Oct/Nov election getting entangled with the US election. We all know some Tories will back Trump, which is a vote loser, then you've got Trump commentating on the election which could be messy.
The obvious time to go was May.
Indeed. I remain baffled as to why he chose July over May. A question nobody has seemingly answered. One of the great mysteries of modern politics.
EXCLUSIVE: Gossip is flying round senior Tory circles that David Cameron is planning to return to the Commons in an early by-election in autumn or spring. And then he will become the "One Nation" group's next leadership contender ⬇️
The Tories are seriously testing my resolve to not extend my betting purse for this election. Outside of a handful of bets that I thought were too good to pass up (RFM losing Clacton, RFM 8-12% in the teens), everything else is looking more likely than when I made the bet.
Just got off the phone to my parents, who are splitting voting for the first time I can recall: Mum going for Reform and Dad staying Conservative.
I wonder if the polls are fairly real. Reform still probably overcooked, but more real than not.
Surveyed my parents & partners the last weekend - all live in a formerly Tory safe seat that is likely to go LD - from 1 Lab, 3 Con to 2 LD, 1 Con, 1 RFM was the conclusion. Not great for them.
The Conservatives just seem to have totally eviscerated their base.
The only saving grace is that there's still a decent fundamental centre-right vote out there in the 35-40% range.
But I think we’re in a new, more volatile end, and we might [be] discussing Labour’s obituary again in 2029.
Of course you do, or you think you do.
The truth is beginning to dawn on the Conservatives that a long time in Government is coming crash down.
You won’t be coming back in 2029. You may not even be back in contention in 2034/5. The earliest election that the British people would be ready to trust you with their mortgages again is 2039.
🚨New Voting Intention🚨 Labour lead by 27 points in our latest poll. Con 19% (-2) Lab 46% (-) Lib Dem 10% (+1) Reform 16% (+4) SNP 2% (-2) Green 5% (-) Other 1% (-1) Fieldwork: 14th - 17th June 2024 Sample: 1,383 GB adults (Changes from 6th - 8th June 2024)
I'm just so glad Rishi called an early election to wrongfoot Reform.
The best call since the Earl of Cardigan at Sevastapol*.
*or whomever is best placed to be blamed.
I can only conclude that Labour are absolutely fucking brilliant at placing plants ready to play the long game.
I've heard three theories from reliable sources on why Rishi went for July, I'll only discuss two of them.
1) He has had enough of the criticism and realised if he went in July or November the result would be largely the same
2) He was worried about an Oct/Nov election getting entangled with the US election. We all know some Tories will back Trump, which is a vote loser, then you've got Trump commentating on the election which could be messy.
All rumours, but:
3) There was due to be a leadership challenge where Andrea Leadsom (Gor bless 'er) was implicated. Sort of tallies with the MPs who reisgned when he called the election.
Labour could get a 200 odd seat majority with 40% of the vote.
This is very worrying.
It would be really great if the Conservatives, or what’s left of them, could start addressing their own problems and why they may be about to get a shellacking.
Rather than the system from which they have benefited for 33 out of the last 47 years.
This is starting to smack of desperation.
I'm sure our Liberal friends on here will raise a wry smile at the PB Tories' newfound enthusiasm for PR.
EXCLUSIVE: Gossip is flying round senior Tory circles that David Cameron is planning to return to the Commons in an early by-election in autumn or spring. And then he will become the "One Nation" group's next leadership contender ⬇️
Apart from the SDP manifesto which was all over the place, the Reform manifesto is the most distinct from others (Green/LD/Lab/Con).
The weakest on housing of all the parties so far, saying nothing whatsoever. Plenty of red meat to excite the target audience, on immigration, crime, wokeness, probably quite effective. Surprisingly little on Brexit.
Call it a B- : not appealing to me, but short, straightforward, and probably appealing to many disaffected Tories.
The savings/costs seem to be random.
The IFS ripped all their mathematics to pieces. It is a fantasy. The good news for Reform being that many voters are, to varying degrees, cakeist and fantasist, so won't be put off at all.
Minor parties always get away with cakeism / totally unrealistic policies. Even Farage admitted at the press conference that it is. It is more signalling how you differ from the mainstream.
Indeed. That's probably enough to bag the angriest fifth of voters. They'll need a lot of luck and better judgment if they're going to try to eat the Tories alive.
Seems more like Farage plan is a reverse merger / takeover of the Tories and using protest vote to Reform as platform for that.
Seems plausible.
Tories reduced to under 100, Reform with say 1-10. At least one Tory leader candidate says merger is the answer, maybe they succeed, then Reform agrees and Farage and Tice (if elected) get plum roles in the Shadow Cabinet.
Is Tice standing? I had a look earlier and couldn’t see where.
One of the safest Tory seats in the country, which he is probably now regretting.
The seat is old, poor and white, with a very low number of graduates and (I believe) the highest EU leave vote in the country. Insofar as Reform are capable of winning anything, this is one of the most likely targets.
Might end up as a Con Lab Ref three-way marginal. See also Clacton.
EXCLUSIVE: Gossip is flying round senior Tory circles that David Cameron is planning to return to the Commons in an early by-election in autumn or spring. And then he will become the "One Nation" group's next leadership contender ⬇️
Braverman seems to have the sort of safe Tory seat where a nicely deployed elbow might create a vacancy. If not then it's nicely poised for a joint Army/Navy exercise, and it's a while since we've tested our tactical nukes.
EXCLUSIVE: Gossip is flying round senior Tory circles that David Cameron is planning to return to the Commons in an early by-election in autumn or spring. And then he will become the "One Nation" group's next leadership contender ⬇️
From the excellent Beyond Topline on the strength of the Lib Dem Tactical Vote
“@OwenWntr: Interesting some polling data I'm looking at has Lib Dem retention from 2019 at 78% in seats where they came 1st or 2nd, and 44% where they didn't”
This *strongly* suggests the Lib Dem bump is due to tactical voting.
If this is replicated in a general election, this implies *much* stronger tactical voting than 1997.
In 1997, Lib Dems retained ~64.5% of their 1992 vote where they were 2nd, ~50% where Labour was.
I have been extremely bullish on Lib Dem seat totals because of the above - the increased prevalence of tactical voting websites COMBINED with the fact that unlike in 2019, it’s A. Starmer instead of Corbyn, and B. Brexit being ‘done’ - makes it much much easier for Lib Dem and Labour voters to vote ‘for the other one’
So the incredible amazing superb “Beyond Topline” has woken up to the DUTCH SALUTE …two years after it was explained and predicted on PB? oh - Whoopee flipping doo. 🤮
They only had to go into PB, search on Dutch Salute, the promise of the current late Lab > LibDem drift as TVs firm up leading to 16% LibDem PV was all there - and prior to vote day, that declining Labour vote in the last weeks, days and on the day, even closing Tory to Lab gap (if Sunak hadn’t been utterly shit) getting (some, the dumb ones) Tories ever so excited at shrinking Lab share, even though it actually means they are on a beach excited about the sea recede away to nothing in front of them, so it means these ignorant idiots actually excited about a bizarre occurrence going on in front of them, that’s about to wipe them out.
And all those of everyone who went gangbusters, laughing and laughing at MoonRabbit and wetting themselves, when I posted TWO YEARS ago now, Thangham Debonaire will lose to a Green - have collective amnesia that they should have been first on ahead of the rest and on at the best odds. Because they were flipping told.
Enough now.
I know you spent weeks banging on about the 'Dutch Salute' but not with ever enough clarity for me to have a fecking clue what you were alluding to, beyond some reference to Dutch women exposing their chests.
I still don't know what point you were trying to make tbh.
Labour could get a 200 odd seat majority with 40% of the vote.
This is very worrying.
It would be really great if the Conservatives, or what’s left of them, could start addressing their own problems and why they may be about to get a shellacking.
Rather than the system from which they have benefited for 33 out of the last 47 years.
This is starting to smack of desperation.
I'm sure our Liberal friends on here will raise a wry smile at the PB Tories' newfound enthusiasm for PR.
indeed, but looking at some of the MRP polls which have come out of late, there's a lot of seats which could be won on minimal vote share. The last Survation one had 25 seats being won on less than 30% and 93 on less that 33.34%
EXCLUSIVE: Gossip is flying round senior Tory circles that David Cameron is planning to return to the Commons in an early by-election in autumn or spring. And then he will become the "One Nation" group's next leadership contender ⬇️
But Dave could win anywhere as I would campaign for him.
My knocking up the voters talent is legendary.
All jesting aside, Cameron was the future once. No more. I’m sorry for you but it’s time you accepted it.
Do the timings particularly work?
If Rishi loses to the degree that he's likely to, surely he can't hang around long enough to get Dave back in?
(But long story short, Dave took over the Conservative leadership nearly twenty years ago. If he's the answer, One Nation Conservatives are asking the wrong question.)
EXCLUSIVE: Gossip is flying round senior Tory circles that David Cameron is planning to return to the Commons in an early by-election in autumn or spring. And then he will become the "One Nation" group's next leadership contender ⬇️
Braverman seems to have the sort of safe Tory seat where a nicely deployed elbow might create a vacancy. If not then it's nicely poised for a joint Army/Navy exercise, and it's a while since we've tested our tactical nukes.
Just got off the phone to my parents, who are splitting voting for the first time I can recall: Mum going for Reform and Dad staying Conservative.
I wonder if the polls are fairly real. Reform still probably overcooked, but more real than not.
Surveyed my parents & partners the last weekend - all live in a formerly Tory safe seat that is likely to go LD - from 1 Lab, 3 Con to 2 LD, 1 Con, 1 RFM was the conclusion. Not great for them.
The Conservatives just seem to have totally eviscerated their base.
The only saving grace is that there's still a decent fundamental centre-right vote out there in the 35-40% range.
But I think we’re in a new, more volatile end, and we might [be] discussing Labour’s obituary again in 2029.
Of course you do, or you think you do.
The truth is beginning to dawn on the Conservatives that a long time in Government is coming crash down.
You won’t be coming back in 2029. You may not even be back in contention in 2034/5. The earliest election that the British people would be ready to trust you with their mortgages again is 2039.
Enjoy the desert.
You keep making assumptions about me and putting words in my mouth. It’s really boring. Stop it.
Who is “you” in this anyway? I’m not a member of the Conservative Party and couldn’t care less if it’s destroyed. Nor am I one of its reliable voters.
Even if it’s not getting more volatile (and the lack of a “normal” election since 2010 does make me doubt that) that would mean Starmer getting three to four terms. Whichever party displaces him, and whatever name it has, it will be with a centre right to right agenda.
Meanwhile, he’s just fine, and will mostly do very little.
EXCLUSIVE: Gossip is flying round senior Tory circles that David Cameron is planning to return to the Commons in an early by-election in autumn or spring. And then he will become the "One Nation" group's next leadership contender ⬇️
Braverman seems to have the sort of safe Tory seat where a nicely deployed elbow might create a vacancy. If not then it's nicely poised for a joint Army/Navy exercise, and it's a while since we've tested our tactical nukes.
Leicester East is a crazy seat, but I really wouldn't bet on Labour at current odds.
The Labour East constituency party is faction ridden, and the suppression of the attempted putsch by Labour councillors against Mayor Soulsby last year has left a lot of ill feeling and created the One Leicester Party. I don't think Webbe has any real support as she has been a useless and absent MP. It is also one of the country's most Hindu seats, and one of the few where Sunak is popular.
The politics is internecine and opaque, but I reckon on a 3 way battle between Lab, Con and Vaz. Stop laughing at the back but Vaz is very popular there and ran a patronage programme that owes him lots of favours.
I reckon a narrow Lab win but either Con or Vaz could win. I got on Vaz at 41, but the current 29 is still value.
EXCLUSIVE: Gossip is flying round senior Tory circles that David Cameron is planning to return to the Commons in an early by-election in autumn or spring. And then he will become the "One Nation" group's next leadership contender ⬇️
Braverman seems to have the sort of safe Tory seat where a nicely deployed elbow might create a vacancy. If not then it's nicely poised for a joint Army/Navy exercise, and it's a while since we've tested our tactical nukes.
Braverman stepping aside for Dave to be the 'One-Nation' leader?
In other news, Putin is planning to hand over control of Russia to a UN peace keeping force.
EXCLUSIVE: Gossip is flying round senior Tory circles that David Cameron is planning to return to the Commons in an early by-election in autumn or spring. And then he will become the "One Nation" group's next leadership contender ⬇️
From the excellent Beyond Topline on the strength of the Lib Dem Tactical Vote
“@OwenWntr: Interesting some polling data I'm looking at has Lib Dem retention from 2019 at 78% in seats where they came 1st or 2nd, and 44% where they didn't”
This *strongly* suggests the Lib Dem bump is due to tactical voting.
If this is replicated in a general election, this implies *much* stronger tactical voting than 1997.
In 1997, Lib Dems retained ~64.5% of their 1992 vote where they were 2nd, ~50% where Labour was.
I have been extremely bullish on Lib Dem seat totals because of the above - the increased prevalence of tactical voting websites COMBINED with the fact that unlike in 2019, it’s A. Starmer instead of Corbyn, and B. Brexit being ‘done’ - makes it much much easier for Lib Dem and Labour voters to vote ‘for the other one’
So the incredible amazing superb “Beyond Topline” has woken up to the DUTCH SALUTE …two years after it was explained and predicted on PB? oh - Whoopee flipping doo. 🤮
They only had to go into PB, search on Dutch Salute, the promise of the current late Lab > LibDem drift as TVs firm up leading to 16% LibDem PV was all there - and prior to vote day, that declining Labour vote in the last weeks, days and on the day, even closing Tory to Lab gap (if Sunak hadn’t been utterly shit) getting (some, the dumb ones) Tories ever so excited at shrinking Lab share, even though it actually means they are on a beach excited about the sea recede away to nothing in front of them, so it means these ignorant idiots actually excited about a bizarre occurrence going on in front of them, that’s about to wipe them out.
And all those of everyone who went gangbusters, laughing and laughing at MoonRabbit and wetting themselves, when I posted TWO YEARS ago now, Thangham Debonaire will lose to a Green - have collective amnesia that they should have been first on ahead of the rest and on at the best odds. Because they were flipping told.
Enough now.
I know you spent weeks banging on about the 'Dutch Salute' but not with ever enough clarity for me to have a fecking clue what you were alluding to, beyond some reference to Dutch women exposing their chests.
I still don't know what point you were trying to make tbh.
Only three people have ever really understood the Dutch salute business – the Prince Consort, who is dead – MoonRabbit, who has gone mad – and I, who have forgotten all about it.
EXCLUSIVE: Gossip is flying round senior Tory circles that David Cameron is planning to return to the Commons in an early by-election in autumn or spring. And then he will become the "One Nation" group's next leadership contender ⬇️
An entirely unhelpful and counterproductive comment by Gauke that simply fires the starting pistol in an interfratricidal war.
The Party must be better than this.
It's investing a huge amount too much importance in the notice anyone takes of Gauke to imagine him firing the starting pistol on anything. He's a bitter old ex-Tory irritant, nothing more.
Not sure why you're so hostile to Gauke - you called him repulsive earlier. Obviously his politics are different from yours - he's an old-school one-nation Tory, but he's still a Tory. It's to their credit that Conservative Home give him a platform every month or so, although his articles attract comments much like yours. But he's a pretty harmless chap undeserving of such vitriol, as far as I can see.
This feels like an appropriately distracted moment to raise my hands, though not in a charismatic way, and confess that I was talking complete rubbish about Big John’s data.
I’m still baffled as to what it was attempting to show etc. etc. but that doesn’t alter the fact that I completely misread the two datasets.
There. I feel better now. Like in those school days when everyone knows it was you who raided the kitchen.
Leicester East is a crazy seat, but I really wouldn't bet on Labour at current odds.
The Labour East constituency party is faction ridden, and the suppression of the attempted putsch by Labour councillors against Mayor Soulsby last year has left a lot of ill feeling and created the One Leicester Party. I don't think Webbe has any real support as she has been a useless and absent MP. It is also one of the country's most Hindu seats, and one of the few where Sunak is popular.
The politics is internecine and opaque, but I reckon on a 3 way battle between Lab, Con and Vaz. Stop laughing at the back but Vaz is very popular there and ran a patronage programme that owes him lots of favours.
I reckon a narrow Lab win but either Con or Vaz could win. I got on Vaz at 41, but the current 29 is still value.
What’s Vaz actually campaigning on locally? Him as a local MP?
Come to think of it, maybe the SCONS should have parachuted Cameron into Aberdeenshire North and Moray East instead of Douglas Ross. I'm sure @RochdalePioneers would have relished taking the fight to Dave.
This feels like an appropriately distracted moment to raise my hands, though not in a charismatic way, and confess that I was talking complete rubbish about Big John’s data.
I’m still baffled as to what it was attempting to show etc. etc. but that doesn’t alter the fact that I completely misread the two datasets.
There. I feel better now. Like in those school days when everyone knows it was you who raided the kitchen.
What it shows is there are a large number of undecideds.
Back in the day OGH used to flag this up when he thought the polls were overstating one party or another.
EXCLUSIVE: Gossip is flying round senior Tory circles that David Cameron is planning to return to the Commons in an early by-election in autumn or spring. And then he will become the "One Nation" group's next leadership contender ⬇️
🚨New Voting Intention🚨 Labour lead by 27 points in our latest poll. Con 19% (-2) Lab 46% (-) Lib Dem 10% (+1) Reform 16% (+4) SNP 2% (-2) Green 5% (-) Other 1% (-1) Fieldwork: 14th - 17th June 2024 Sample: 1,383 GB adults (Changes from 6th - 8th June 2024)
I'm just so glad Rishi called an early election to wrongfoot Reform.
The best call since the Earl of Cardigan at Sevastapol*.
*or whomever is best placed to be blamed.
I can only conclude that Labour are absolutely fucking brilliant at placing plants ready to play the long game.
I've heard three theories from reliable sources on why Rishi went for July, I'll only discuss two of them.
1) He has had enough of the criticism and realised if he went in July or November the result would be largely the same
2) He was worried about an Oct/Nov election getting entangled with the US election. We all know some Tories will back Trump, which is a vote loser, then you've got Trump commentating on the election which could be messy.
I not only predicted 4th July, so it couldn’t come as a complete shock to PBers, but I told you all the reasoning as to why in the weeks and months before they even started reasoning it for themselves.
Waiting for interest rate cut had run out of road, this meant mortgage and re-mortgage pain all up to autumn election. July and summer would bring not only surge to a record of Channel crossings, but none of the long promised covid flights as it got bogged down in courts. A Covid report, to put the “after that how can we trust you ever again?” on voters lips in time for autumn campaign. Autumn also brings higher energy prices and food prices, and inflation creeping back up. It could also mean a party conference, and a fiscal event for which there was no money left for rabbits from the pre election hat, at least not in these days of the OBR, the so called headroom Hunt had invented, he had already maxxed out.
They are not bright this Tory top team - Sunak’s switch to now fighting on individual freedom and aspiration for working families in his hustings speeches this week, wouldn’t have happened if I hadn’t told him to do that on PB. Tory’s are making this campaign up as they go along, from reading PB and cribbing from my posts in particular.
Comments
Boy, the impotence of opposition is going to come as a shock.
If you look at the crosstabs on Deltapoll, they have more 2016 Labour Leavers sticking with the party than Labour Remainers, which seems hard to believe. I think they're undersampling the Labour -> Leave -> Boris voter.
Personally, I think if they do the latter they’ll never see power again, because the Labour shift towards urban areas is moving it into exactly the same space. But who knows.
Rather than the system from which they have benefited for 33 out of the last 47 years.
This is starting to smack of desperation.
And as one who has voted Tory always in GEs for 50 years and certainly won't this time, it also feels a bit sad - like Act 5 of Lear or something. I don't like this, but I'm going to stay awake to see what happens.
I wonder if the polls are fairly real. Reform still probably overcooked, but more real than not.
*or whomever is best placed to be blamed.
I think various Reform leaning voters are getting more excited at the prospect, not worried about consequences if the Tories get destroyed.
We expect the first LibDem cabinet meeting to be held on Hyperia at Thorpe Park. Tradition demands it.
The only saving grace is that there's still a decent fundamental centre-right vote out there in the 35-40% range.
- Lib Dem and REFUK ‘Most Seats Without Labour’
- Labour 500+ Seats
- Labour above 418.5 seats
- REFUK to have higher vote share than Cons
- REFUK to win 1 or more seats (laying 0)
- REFUK to win 7 or more seats
- Lib Dem over 40.5 seats
- Cons under 140.5 seats
- Cons 0-49 seats
I don’t expect all the above to happen, many were initially trading bets - but the moment to trade out has not yet come.
The LD tactical vote efficiency has been ignored IMO because it’s the first election where the lack of Brexit+Corbyn combines with the growth of social media sharing tactical vote websites, to make it a thing fully.
My attention is now the constituency lines where odds look better. Thank you to @Quincel I think (but apologies if it was someone else!!) for the Sutton and Cheam LD tip, it looks very good.
1) He has had enough of the criticism and realised if he went in July or November the result would be largely the same
2) He was worried about an Oct/Nov election getting entangled with the US election. We all know some Tories will back Trump, which is a vote loser, then you've got Trump commentating on the election which could be messy.
To give a concrete example, an elderly couple occupying a four-bedroom house could be bought by a younger couple starting a family, which could free up two single-person dwellings.
legendary modestyis having a sense of humour.A worst case scenario, you get a Suella type in charge of the Conservatives, chasing the Reform vote and losing even more centrist voters, campaigning on culture war and small boat immigration type stuff, and they get another kicking in 2029.
I know which one I'd rather see, but at this point, I'm afraid the latter is more likely to happen.
Tories reduced to under 100, Reform with say 1-10. At least one Tory leader candidate says merger is the answer, maybe they succeed, then Reform agrees and Farage and Tice (if elected) get plum roles in the Shadow Cabinet.
But, it requires guile and political skill to solve it.
But I think we’re in a new, more volatile end, and we might discussing Labour’s obituary again in 2029.
Went for a walk with Surrey tory friend today and I’m not now convinced that she is going to vote tory afterall. She does have serious issues about how Labour is going to generate the growth it says and was again speaking about their tax rises.
But for the most part she went on and on and on and on about how the Conservative Party were no longer her Conservative Party. How they have become nasty and lost all values of decency. That they have gone so far to the extreme that they are unrecognisable from the Party for whom she has always voted.
Cue, perhaps, another true blue who no longer is.
*Don’t blame the voting system. Blame yourselves.*
Nor did you sound the Subsample Klaxon, William.
Tut tut.
Edit: pretty much the only funny parts of the film are the ones with Stephen Merchant in it:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=27owh5Cs5ms&pp=ygUQaSBnaXZlIGl0IGEgeWVhcg==
I am not calling for the latter, simply for the proponents of this scurrilous behaviour to sound the Subsample Klaxon before indulging in such innumerate frivolities.
But Dave could win anywhere as I would campaign for him.
My knocking up the voters talent is legendary.
One of the safest Tory seats in the country, which he is probably now regretting.
"Officers who hit an escaped cow with a car "probably did the right thing at the time" according to one union chief and farmer."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cg33v21weg3o
The ending of certainties with which we've all become familiar can be difficult (look at what happened with the fall of the Warsaw Pact in 1989 and yet 35 years we still seem to see Russia as "the enemy" just as we did when the Red Army was two hours drive from the Rhine).
IF it happens it will be a seismic event for both the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats in different ways and for different reasons. I don't know what will happen and that's part of the "fun" - we really would be in uncharted territory.
The truth is beginning to dawn on the Conservatives that a long time in Government is coming crash down.
You won’t be coming back in 2029. You may not even be back in contention in 2034/5. The earliest election that the British people would be ready to trust you with their mortgages again is 2039.
Enjoy the desert.
3) There was due to be a leadership challenge where Andrea Leadsom (Gor bless 'er) was implicated. Sort of tallies with the MPs who reisgned when he called the election.
4) His Green Card was running out.
Might end up as a Con Lab Ref three-way marginal. See also Clacton.
I still don't know what point you were trying to make tbh.
https://x.com/Hamish4Lincs
If Rishi loses to the degree that he's likely to, surely he can't hang around long enough to get Dave back in?
(But long story short, Dave took over the Conservative leadership nearly twenty years ago. If he's the answer, One Nation Conservatives are asking the wrong question.)
Who is “you” in this anyway? I’m not a member of the Conservative Party and couldn’t care less if it’s destroyed. Nor am I one of its reliable voters.
Even if it’s not getting more volatile (and the lack of a “normal” election since 2010 does make me doubt that) that would mean Starmer getting three to four terms. Whichever party displaces him, and whatever name it has, it will be with a centre right to right agenda.
Meanwhile, he’s just fine, and will mostly do very little.
Leicester East is a crazy seat, but I really wouldn't bet on Labour at current odds.
The Labour East constituency party is faction ridden, and the suppression of the attempted putsch by Labour councillors against Mayor Soulsby last year has left a lot of ill feeling and created the One Leicester Party. I don't think Webbe has any real support as she has been a useless and absent MP. It is also one of the country's most Hindu seats, and one of the few where Sunak is popular.
The politics is internecine and opaque, but I reckon on a 3 way battle between Lab, Con and Vaz. Stop laughing at the back but Vaz is very popular there and ran a patronage programme that owes him lots of favours.
I reckon a narrow Lab win but either Con or Vaz could win. I got on Vaz at 41, but the current 29 is still value.
But, we’re out of the war now
*breaks into that last song from Oh What a Lovely
War*
https://youtu.be/yqrc46ouZz8?si=KkS02CnkYFfeYr6l
In other news, Putin is planning to hand over control of Russia to a UN peace keeping force.
Very credible article by Andrew Gimson why Boris, rather than Farage, could be beneficiary of the election going less than optimally for the Blues..
https://conservativehome.com/2024/06/16/johnson-is-preparing-to-run-again/
Around 15% of voters are still undecided. Which way are they leaning?
For months there was an assumption that these undecided voters – of which plenty voted Tory in 2019 – would lean Tory again
Yet @Survation's latest MRP suggests when pressed, they're breaking for Labour
https://x.com/TomHCalver/status/1802744645132132510
I’m still baffled as to what it was attempting to show etc. etc. but that doesn’t alter the fact that I completely misread the two datasets.
There. I feel better now. Like in those school days when everyone knows it was you who raided the kitchen.
"Just had the conservative candidate for Croydon around. Said I’m voting reform and he got annoyed"
Back in the day OGH used to flag this up when he thought the polls were overstating one party or another.
Waiting for interest rate cut had run out of road, this meant mortgage and re-mortgage pain all up to autumn election. July and summer would bring not only surge to a record of Channel crossings, but none of the long promised covid flights as it got bogged down in courts. A Covid report, to put the “after that how can we trust you ever again?” on voters lips in time for autumn campaign. Autumn also brings higher energy prices and food prices, and inflation creeping back up. It could also mean a party conference, and a fiscal event for which there was no money left for rabbits from the pre election hat, at least not in these days of the OBR, the so called headroom Hunt had invented, he had already maxxed out.
They are not bright this Tory top team - Sunak’s switch to now fighting on individual freedom and aspiration for working families in his hustings speeches this week, wouldn’t have happened if I hadn’t told him to do that on PB. Tory’s are making this campaign up as they go along, from reading PB and cribbing from my posts in particular.
Men read military history; women read romantic fiction
Men fancy themselves as soldiers; women imagine themselves as beauties
Both are fantasies, both are eternal, both are corrosively intoxicating