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The War at Home: Labour Defences (Part Two) – politicalbetting.com

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  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,779
    pigeon said:

    kle4 said:

    Reform UK Manifesto Conclusion

    Apart from the SDP manifesto which was all over the place, the Reform manifesto is the most distinct from others (Green/LD/Lab/Con).

    The weakest on housing of all the parties so far, saying nothing whatsoever. Plenty of red meat to excite the target audience, on immigration, crime, wokeness, probably quite effective. Surprisingly little on Brexit.

    Call it a B- : not appealing to me, but short, straightforward, and probably appealing to many disaffected Tories.

    The savings/costs seem to be random.

    The IFS ripped all their mathematics to pieces. It is a fantasy. The good news for Reform being that many voters are, to varying degrees, cakeist and fantasist, so won't be put off at all.
    The IFS can safely be dismissed as part of the conspiracy, I am sure.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    Just got off the phone to my parents, who are splitting voting for the first time I can recall: Mum going for Reform and Dad staying Conservative.

    I wonder if the polls are fairly real. Reform still probably overcooked, but more real than not.

    Surveyed my parents & partners the last weekend - all live in a formerly Tory safe seat that is likely to go LD - from 1 Lab, 3 Con to 2 LD, 1 Con, 1 RFM was the conclusion. Not great for them.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839

    EXCLUSIVE: Gossip is flying round senior Tory circles that David Cameron is planning to return to the Commons in an early by-election in autumn or spring. And then he will become the "One Nation" group's next leadership contender ⬇️

    https://x.com/oflynnsocial/status/1802737560055144795

    Captain of the taxi.
    Tories nailed on to win in 2029.
    2029 will be Ed Davey's turn.

    We expect the first LibDem cabinet meeting to be held on Hyperia at Thorpe Park. Tradition demands it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    pigeon said:

    kle4 said:

    Reform UK Manifesto Conclusion

    Apart from the SDP manifesto which was all over the place, the Reform manifesto is the most distinct from others (Green/LD/Lab/Con).

    The weakest on housing of all the parties so far, saying nothing whatsoever. Plenty of red meat to excite the target audience, on immigration, crime, wokeness, probably quite effective. Surprisingly little on Brexit.

    Call it a B- : not appealing to me, but short, straightforward, and probably appealing to many disaffected Tories.

    The savings/costs seem to be random.

    The IFS ripped all their mathematics to pieces. It is a fantasy. The good news for Reform being that many voters are, to varying degrees, cakeist and fantasist, so won't be put off at all.
    Strangely, Guido who has been ramping Reform and who usually includes a lot of detail about criticisms of manifesto pledges including from the IFS, appears silent on this one so far.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,497
    kle4 said:

    Just got off the phone to my parents, who are splitting voting for the first time I can recall: Mum going for Reform and Dad staying Conservative.

    I wonder if the polls are fairly real. Reform still probably overcooked, but more real than not.

    That's my general position - not reaching the heights suggested, but enough to be devasting, not just very damaging.

    I think various Reform leaning voters are getting more excited at the prospect, not worried about consequences if the Tories get destroyed.
    I don't know of a single person, except Tory employees and local council candidates who intend to vote Tory.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,439
    kle4 said:

    https://x.com/DeltapollUK/status/1802755485331780094?s=19

    27 point lead, ouch!

    🚨New Voting Intention🚨
    Labour lead by 27 points in our latest poll.
    Con 19% (-2)
    Lab 46% (-)
    Lib Dem 10% (+1)
    Reform 16% (+4)
    SNP 2% (-2)
    Green 5% (-)
    Other 1% (-1)
    Fieldwork: 14th - 17th June 2024
    Sample: 1,383 GB adults
    (Changes from 6th - 8th June 2024)

    I'm just so glad Rishi called an early election to wrongfoot Reform.
    The best call since the Earl of Cardigan at Sevastapol*.

    *or whomever is best placed to be blamed.
    I can only conclude that Labour are absolutely fucking brilliant at placing plants ready to play the long game.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    So it looks like Brexit is quite possibly going to destroy the Tory Party. It's not what I want to see, not really, but there's a certain justice there.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631

    EXCLUSIVE: Leaked WhatsApps expose secret plot to disrupt Labour's private schools plan

    A viral message being shared on WhatsApp and Facebook urges private school parents to create 'panic' by pretending they’re going to move their kids to a state school


    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/leaked-whatsapps-expose-secret-plot-33037068

    I'd certainly panic if my kids' schools were suddenly inundated by throngs of Jocastas and Benedicts all being dropped off by Range Rover and asking the way to the hockey pitch.
    Your nasty class warfare shames you.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    algarkirk said:

    kle4 said:

    Just got off the phone to my parents, who are splitting voting for the first time I can recall: Mum going for Reform and Dad staying Conservative.

    I wonder if the polls are fairly real. Reform still probably overcooked, but more real than not.

    That's my general position - not reaching the heights suggested, but enough to be devasting, not just very damaging.

    I think various Reform leaning voters are getting more excited at the prospect, not worried about consequences if the Tories get destroyed.
    I don't know of a single person, except Tory employees and local council candidates who intend to vote Tory.
    A shy voter effect may be so extreme even polling companies cannot account for it. But to be so far out they are not in danger of extinction? Doesn't seem likely.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839

    pigeon said:

    kle4 said:

    Reform UK Manifesto Conclusion

    Apart from the SDP manifesto which was all over the place, the Reform manifesto is the most distinct from others (Green/LD/Lab/Con).

    The weakest on housing of all the parties so far, saying nothing whatsoever. Plenty of red meat to excite the target audience, on immigration, crime, wokeness, probably quite effective. Surprisingly little on Brexit.

    Call it a B- : not appealing to me, but short, straightforward, and probably appealing to many disaffected Tories.

    The savings/costs seem to be random.

    The IFS ripped all their mathematics to pieces. It is a fantasy. The good news for Reform being that many voters are, to varying degrees, cakeist and fantasist, so won't be put off at all.
    Minor parties always get away with cakeism / totally unrealistic policies. Even Farage admitted at the press conference that it is. It is more signalling how you differ from the mainstream.
    Indeed. That's probably enough to bag the angriest fifth of voters. They'll need a lot of luck and better judgment if they're going to try to eat the Tories alive.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,439
    Chameleon said:

    Just got off the phone to my parents, who are splitting voting for the first time I can recall: Mum going for Reform and Dad staying Conservative.

    I wonder if the polls are fairly real. Reform still probably overcooked, but more real than not.

    Surveyed my parents & partners the last weekend - all live in a formerly Tory safe seat that is likely to go LD - from 1 Lab, 3 Con to 2 LD, 1 Con, 1 RFM was the conclusion. Not great for them.
    The Conservatives just seem to have totally eviscerated their base.

    The only saving grace is that there's still a decent fundamental centre-right vote out there in the 35-40% range.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,779
    kinabalu said:

    So it looks like Brexit is quite possibly going to destroy the Tory Party. It's not what I want to see, not really, but there's a certain justice there.

    The revolution devours its own children.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822

    EXCLUSIVE: Gossip is flying round senior Tory circles that David Cameron is planning to return to the Commons in an early by-election in autumn or spring. And then he will become the "One Nation" group's next leadership contender ⬇️

    https://x.com/oflynnsocial/status/1802737560055144795

    I doubt Keir Starmer is going to be resigning to create that vacancy.
  • PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 580
    edited June 17

    From the excellent Beyond Topline on the strength of the Lib Dem Tactical Vote

    @OwenWntr: Interesting some polling data I'm looking at has Lib Dem retention from 2019 at 78% in seats where they came 1st or 2nd, and 44% where they didn't”

    This *strongly* suggests the Lib Dem bump is due to tactical voting.

    If this is replicated in a general election, this implies *much* stronger tactical voting than 1997.

    In 1997, Lib Dems retained ~64.5% of their 1992 vote where they were 2nd, ~50% where Labour was.

    https://x.com/beyond_topline/status/1802732115496202641?s=61

    I have been extremely bullish on Lib Dem seat totals because of the above - the increased prevalence of tactical voting websites COMBINED with the fact that unlike in 2019, it’s A. Starmer instead of Corbyn, and B. Brexit being ‘done’ - makes it much much easier for Lib Dem and Labour voters to vote ‘for the other one’

    So the incredible amazing superb “Beyond Topline” has woken up to the DUTCH SALUTE …two years after it was explained and predicted on PB? oh - Whoopee flipping doo. 🤮

    They only had to go into PB, search on Dutch Salute, the promise of the current late Lab > LibDem drift as TVs firm up leading to 16% LibDem PV was all there - and prior to vote day, that declining Labour vote in the last weeks, days and on the day, even closing Tory to Lab gap (if Sunak hadn’t been utterly shit) getting (some, the dumb ones) Tories ever so excited at shrinking Lab share, even though it actually means they are on a beach excited about the sea recede away to nothing in front of them, so it means these ignorant idiots actually excited about a bizarre occurrence going on in front of them, that’s about to wipe them out.

    And all those of everyone who went gangbusters, laughing and laughing at MoonRabbit and wetting themselves, when I posted TWO YEARS ago now, Thangham Debonaire will lose to a Green - have collective amnesia that they should have been first on ahead of the rest and on at the best odds. Because they were flipping told.

    Enough now.


    Okay, not sure what prompted this - I’ve been very hot on this for a while and have been trumpeting bullishness on the LDs and Reform in particular. My main bets this election a few weeks ago:

    - Lib Dem and REFUK ‘Most Seats Without Labour’
    - Labour 500+ Seats
    - Labour above 418.5 seats
    - REFUK to have higher vote share than Cons
    - REFUK to win 1 or more seats (laying 0)
    - REFUK to win 7 or more seats
    - Lib Dem over 40.5 seats
    - Cons under 140.5 seats
    - Cons 0-49 seats

    I don’t expect all the above to happen, many were initially trading bets - but the moment to trade out has not yet come.

    The LD tactical vote efficiency has been ignored IMO because it’s the first election where the lack of Brexit+Corbyn combines with the growth of social media sharing tactical vote websites, to make it a thing fully.

    My attention is now the constituency lines where odds look better. Thank you to @Quincel I think (but apologies if it was someone else!!) for the Sutton and Cheam LD tip, it looks very good.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,997
    edited June 17
    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    kle4 said:

    Reform UK Manifesto Conclusion

    Apart from the SDP manifesto which was all over the place, the Reform manifesto is the most distinct from others (Green/LD/Lab/Con).

    The weakest on housing of all the parties so far, saying nothing whatsoever. Plenty of red meat to excite the target audience, on immigration, crime, wokeness, probably quite effective. Surprisingly little on Brexit.

    Call it a B- : not appealing to me, but short, straightforward, and probably appealing to many disaffected Tories.

    The savings/costs seem to be random.

    The IFS ripped all their mathematics to pieces. It is a fantasy. The good news for Reform being that many voters are, to varying degrees, cakeist and fantasist, so won't be put off at all.
    Minor parties always get away with cakeism / totally unrealistic policies. Even Farage admitted at the press conference that it is. It is more signalling how you differ from the mainstream.
    Indeed. That's probably enough to bag the angriest fifth of voters. They'll need a lot of luck and better judgment if they're going to try to eat the Tories alive.
    Seems more like Farage plan is a reverse merger / takeover of the Tories and using protest vote to Reform as platform for that.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,779

    EXCLUSIVE: Leaked WhatsApps expose secret plot to disrupt Labour's private schools plan

    A viral message being shared on WhatsApp and Facebook urges private school parents to create 'panic' by pretending they’re going to move their kids to a state school


    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/leaked-whatsapps-expose-secret-plot-33037068

    I'd certainly panic if my kids' schools were suddenly inundated by throngs of Jocastas and Benedicts all being dropped off by Range Rover and asking the way to the hockey pitch.
    Your nasty class warfare shames you.
    Whatever they taught you at school, it obviously wasn't a sense of humour 😜.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631

    kle4 said:

    https://x.com/DeltapollUK/status/1802755485331780094?s=19

    27 point lead, ouch!

    🚨New Voting Intention🚨
    Labour lead by 27 points in our latest poll.
    Con 19% (-2)
    Lab 46% (-)
    Lib Dem 10% (+1)
    Reform 16% (+4)
    SNP 2% (-2)
    Green 5% (-)
    Other 1% (-1)
    Fieldwork: 14th - 17th June 2024
    Sample: 1,383 GB adults
    (Changes from 6th - 8th June 2024)

    I'm just so glad Rishi called an early election to wrongfoot Reform.
    The best call since the Earl of Cardigan at Sevastapol*.

    *or whomever is best placed to be blamed.
    I can only conclude that Labour are absolutely fucking brilliant at placing plants ready to play the long game.
    I've heard three theories from reliable sources on why Rishi went for July, I'll only discuss two of them.

    1) He has had enough of the criticism and realised if he went in July or November the result would be largely the same

    2) He was worried about an Oct/Nov election getting entangled with the US election. We all know some Tories will back Trump, which is a vote loser, then you've got Trump commentating on the election which could be messy.
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 795
    edited June 17
    pigeon said:

    kle4 said:

    Reform UK Manifesto Conclusion

    Apart from the SDP manifesto which was all over the place, the Reform manifesto is the most distinct from others (Green/LD/Lab/Con).

    The weakest on housing of all the parties so far, saying nothing whatsoever. Plenty of red meat to excite the target audience, on immigration, crime, wokeness, probably quite effective. Surprisingly little on Brexit.

    Call it a B- : not appealing to me, but short, straightforward, and probably appealing to many disaffected Tories.

    The savings/costs seem to be random.

    The IFS ripped all their mathematics to pieces. It is a fantasy. The good news for Reform being that many voters are, to varying degrees, cakeist and fantasist, so won't be put off at all.
    Well quite. Apart from the culture war, immigration, and drugs stuff it's practically my fantasy government. Since I have an IQ greater than that of a lettuce (arguably) it's obvious it's fantasy due to the whole vaguely balancing a budget thing. Sadly many post 2019 conservative voters (and one leader) are lettuces so it should do well. I can't see who that is considering Reform atm would be put off. I can see some of the hardcore remaining Tories being interested.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,628
    MattW said:

    kle4 said:

    Freeze ‘non-essential’ immigration to boost wages, protect public services, end housing crisis, cut crime.
    What a load of crap.

    You could cut net migration to zero today and the housing crisis will remain every bit as acute as everyone in here already will still need a house.

    The only way to end the housing crisis is to construct massively more housing.

    Migration adds to the amount of new housing needed, but new housing is needed either way.
    That's numerically false. If you have zero net migration and a below replacement fertility rate, the amount of available housing per person would go up even without any building.
    That assumes constant household size.
    I think I'm right in saying that older people disproportionately 'over-occupy' housing so the effect of natural churn would counteract any tendency for younger people to have smaller households.

    To give a concrete example, an elderly couple occupying a four-bedroom house could be bought by a younger couple starting a family, which could free up two single-person dwellings.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822

    kle4 said:

    https://x.com/DeltapollUK/status/1802755485331780094?s=19

    27 point lead, ouch!

    🚨New Voting Intention🚨
    Labour lead by 27 points in our latest poll.
    Con 19% (-2)
    Lab 46% (-)
    Lib Dem 10% (+1)
    Reform 16% (+4)
    SNP 2% (-2)
    Green 5% (-)
    Other 1% (-1)
    Fieldwork: 14th - 17th June 2024
    Sample: 1,383 GB adults
    (Changes from 6th - 8th June 2024)

    I'm just so glad Rishi called an early election to wrongfoot Reform.
    The best call since the Earl of Cardigan at Sevastapol*.

    *or whomever is best placed to be blamed.
    I can only conclude that Labour are absolutely fucking brilliant at placing plants ready to play the long game.
    I've heard three theories from reliable sources on why Rishi went for July, I'll only discuss two of them.

    1) He has had enough of the criticism and realised if he went in July or November the result would be largely the same

    2) He was worried about an Oct/Nov election getting entangled with the US election. We all know some Tories will back Trump, which is a vote loser, then you've got Trump commentating on the election which could be messy.
    The obvious time to go was May.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631

    EXCLUSIVE: Leaked WhatsApps expose secret plot to disrupt Labour's private schools plan

    A viral message being shared on WhatsApp and Facebook urges private school parents to create 'panic' by pretending they’re going to move their kids to a state school


    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/leaked-whatsapps-expose-secret-plot-33037068

    I'd certainly panic if my kids' schools were suddenly inundated by throngs of Jocastas and Benedicts all being dropped off by Range Rover and asking the way to the hockey pitch.
    Your nasty class warfare shames you.
    Whatever they taught you at school, it obviously wasn't a sense of humour 😜.
    Please, if there's one thing I am noted for is my legendary modesty is having a sense of humour.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,439

    kle4 said:

    https://x.com/DeltapollUK/status/1802755485331780094?s=19

    27 point lead, ouch!

    🚨New Voting Intention🚨
    Labour lead by 27 points in our latest poll.
    Con 19% (-2)
    Lab 46% (-)
    Lib Dem 10% (+1)
    Reform 16% (+4)
    SNP 2% (-2)
    Green 5% (-)
    Other 1% (-1)
    Fieldwork: 14th - 17th June 2024
    Sample: 1,383 GB adults
    (Changes from 6th - 8th June 2024)

    I'm just so glad Rishi called an early election to wrongfoot Reform.
    The best call since the Earl of Cardigan at Sevastapol*.

    *or whomever is best placed to be blamed.
    I can only conclude that Labour are absolutely fucking brilliant at placing plants ready to play the long game.
    I've heard three theories from reliable sources on why Rishi went for July, I'll only discuss two of them.

    1) He has had enough of the criticism and realised if he went in July or November the result would be largely the same

    2) He was worried about an Oct/Nov election getting entangled with the US election. We all know some Tories will back Trump, which is a vote loser, then you've got Trump commentating on the election which could be messy.
    It's (1) - he couldn't be arsed anymore and arrogance explains the rest.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    kle4 said:

    Reform UK Manifesto Conclusion

    Apart from the SDP manifesto which was all over the place, the Reform manifesto is the most distinct from others (Green/LD/Lab/Con).

    The weakest on housing of all the parties so far, saying nothing whatsoever. Plenty of red meat to excite the target audience, on immigration, crime, wokeness, probably quite effective. Surprisingly little on Brexit.

    Call it a B- : not appealing to me, but short, straightforward, and probably appealing to many disaffected Tories.

    The savings/costs seem to be random.

    The IFS ripped all their mathematics to pieces. It is a fantasy. The good news for Reform being that many voters are, to varying degrees, cakeist and fantasist, so won't be put off at all.
    Minor parties always get away with cakeism / totally unrealistic policies. Even Farage admitted at the press conference that it is. It is more signalling how you differ from the mainstream.
    Indeed. That's probably enough to bag the angriest fifth of voters. They'll need a lot of luck and better judgment if they're going to try to eat the Tories alive.
    Seems more like Farage plan is a reverse merger / takeover of the Tories and using protest vote to Reform as platform for that.
    Seems plausible.

    Tories reduced to under 100, Reform with say 1-10. At least one Tory leader candidate says merger is the answer, maybe they succeed, then Reform agrees and Farage and Tice (if elected) get plum roles in the Shadow Cabinet.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    kle4 said:

    https://x.com/DeltapollUK/status/1802755485331780094?s=19

    27 point lead, ouch!

    🚨New Voting Intention🚨
    Labour lead by 27 points in our latest poll.
    Con 19% (-2)
    Lab 46% (-)
    Lib Dem 10% (+1)
    Reform 16% (+4)
    SNP 2% (-2)
    Green 5% (-)
    Other 1% (-1)
    Fieldwork: 14th - 17th June 2024
    Sample: 1,383 GB adults
    (Changes from 6th - 8th June 2024)

    I'm just so glad Rishi called an early election to wrongfoot Reform.
    The best call since the Earl of Cardigan at Sevastapol*.

    *or whomever is best placed to be blamed.
    I can only conclude that Labour are absolutely fucking brilliant at placing plants ready to play the long game.
    I've heard three theories from reliable sources on why Rishi went for July, I'll only discuss two of them.

    1) He has had enough of the criticism and realised if he went in July or November the result would be largely the same

    2) He was worried about an Oct/Nov election getting entangled with the US election. We all know some Tories will back Trump, which is a vote loser, then you've got Trump commentating on the election which could be messy.
    The third reason regarding needing a relatively clear campaigning schedule is the one I buy. That or he was deluded to think a small downtick in inflation was a real vote winner.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,439
    kyf_100 said:

    Chameleon said:

    Just got off the phone to my parents, who are splitting voting for the first time I can recall: Mum going for Reform and Dad staying Conservative.

    I wonder if the polls are fairly real. Reform still probably overcooked, but more real than not.

    Surveyed my parents & partners the last weekend - all live in a formerly Tory safe seat that is likely to go LD - from 1 Lab, 3 Con to 2 LD, 1 Con, 1 RFM was the conclusion. Not great for them.
    The Conservatives just seem to have totally eviscerated their base.

    The only saving grace is that there's still a decent fundamental centre-right vote out there in the 35-40% range.
    A best case scenario, in 2029 you get a moderate Conservative party standing against a Labour party that's put the squeeze on the middle classes for the last five years, and that 35-40%ish coalesce around a suitably chastened Conservative party that has remembered who its voters are.

    A worst case scenario, you get a Suella type in charge of the Conservatives, chasing the Reform vote and losing even more centrist voters, campaigning on culture war and small boat immigration type stuff, and they get another kicking in 2029.

    I know which one I'd rather see, but at this point, I'm afraid the latter is more likely to happen.
    Yep. All I will say is that immigration is a dog that cannot be ignored.

    But, it requires guile and political skill to solve it.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,052

    Chameleon said:

    Just got off the phone to my parents, who are splitting voting for the first time I can recall: Mum going for Reform and Dad staying Conservative.

    I wonder if the polls are fairly real. Reform still probably overcooked, but more real than not.

    Surveyed my parents & partners the last weekend - all live in a formerly Tory safe seat that is likely to go LD - from 1 Lab, 3 Con to 2 LD, 1 Con, 1 RFM was the conclusion. Not great for them.
    The Conservatives just seem to have totally eviscerated their base.

    The only saving grace is that there's still a decent fundamental centre-right vote out there in the 35-40% range.
    They have done something I never would have thought possible. They have convinced some swing voters and some of their core that they are incompetent and extreme; whilst convincing the rest of their swing voters and core that they are incompetent and basically Labour. It’s genius really. Alienate everyone and unite them on the incompetence point.

    But I think we’re in a new, more volatile end, and we might discussing Labour’s obituary again in 2029.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    Litmus anecdote test of one: UPDATE

    Went for a walk with Surrey tory friend today and I’m not now convinced that she is going to vote tory afterall. She does have serious issues about how Labour is going to generate the growth it says and was again speaking about their tax rises.

    But for the most part she went on and on and on and on about how the Conservative Party were no longer her Conservative Party. How they have become nasty and lost all values of decency. That they have gone so far to the extreme that they are unrecognisable from the Party for whom she has always voted.

    Cue, perhaps, another true blue who no longer is.


    *Don’t blame the voting system. Blame yourselves.*

  • PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 580

    EXCLUSIVE: Gossip is flying round senior Tory circles that David Cameron is planning to return to the Commons in an early by-election in autumn or spring. And then he will become the "One Nation" group's next leadership contender ⬇️

    https://x.com/oflynnsocial/status/1802737560055144795

    Reform might massively target whatever seat he stands in to stop him winning it… will there be any seat he could even be parachuted in to?

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,432

    Scott_xP said:
    An entirely unhelpful and counterproductive comment by Gauke that simply fires the starting pistol in an interfratricidal war.

    The Party must be better than this.
    It's investing a huge amount too much importance in the notice anyone takes of Gauke to imagine him firing the starting pistol on anything. He's a bitter old ex-Tory irritant, nothing more.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647

    EXCLUSIVE: Gossip is flying round senior Tory circles that David Cameron is planning to return to the Commons in an early by-election in autumn or spring. And then he will become the "One Nation" group's next leadership contender ⬇️

    https://x.com/oflynnsocial/status/1802737560055144795

    Winnable by-election? Where will that be found?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,052
    kle4 said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    kle4 said:

    Reform UK Manifesto Conclusion

    Apart from the SDP manifesto which was all over the place, the Reform manifesto is the most distinct from others (Green/LD/Lab/Con).

    The weakest on housing of all the parties so far, saying nothing whatsoever. Plenty of red meat to excite the target audience, on immigration, crime, wokeness, probably quite effective. Surprisingly little on Brexit.

    Call it a B- : not appealing to me, but short, straightforward, and probably appealing to many disaffected Tories.

    The savings/costs seem to be random.

    The IFS ripped all their mathematics to pieces. It is a fantasy. The good news for Reform being that many voters are, to varying degrees, cakeist and fantasist, so won't be put off at all.
    Minor parties always get away with cakeism / totally unrealistic policies. Even Farage admitted at the press conference that it is. It is more signalling how you differ from the mainstream.
    Indeed. That's probably enough to bag the angriest fifth of voters. They'll need a lot of luck and better judgment if they're going to try to eat the Tories alive.
    Seems more like Farage plan is a reverse merger / takeover of the Tories and using protest vote to Reform as platform for that.
    Seems plausible.

    Tories reduced to under 100, Reform with say 1-10. At least one Tory leader candidate says merger is the answer, maybe they succeed, then Reform agrees and Farage and Tice (if elected) get plum roles in the Shadow Cabinet.
    Is Tice standing? I had a look earlier and couldn’t see where.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    https://x.com/DeltapollUK/status/1802755485331780094?s=19

    27 point lead, ouch!

    🚨New Voting Intention🚨
    Labour lead by 27 points in our latest poll.
    Con 19% (-2)
    Lab 46% (-)
    Lib Dem 10% (+1)
    Reform 16% (+4)
    SNP 2% (-2)
    Green 5% (-)
    Other 1% (-1)
    Fieldwork: 14th - 17th June 2024
    Sample: 1,383 GB adults
    (Changes from 6th - 8th June 2024)

    I don't believe Lab 46.

    If you look at the crosstabs on Deltapoll, they have more 2016 Labour Leavers sticking with the party than Labour Remainers, which seems hard to believe. I think they're undersampling the Labour -> Leave -> Boris voter.
    Those are subsamples, and unweighted. Thus your post is nonsense.

    Nor did you sound the Subsample Klaxon, William.

    Tut tut.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647
    biggles said:

    kle4 said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    kle4 said:

    Reform UK Manifesto Conclusion

    Apart from the SDP manifesto which was all over the place, the Reform manifesto is the most distinct from others (Green/LD/Lab/Con).

    The weakest on housing of all the parties so far, saying nothing whatsoever. Plenty of red meat to excite the target audience, on immigration, crime, wokeness, probably quite effective. Surprisingly little on Brexit.

    Call it a B- : not appealing to me, but short, straightforward, and probably appealing to many disaffected Tories.

    The savings/costs seem to be random.

    The IFS ripped all their mathematics to pieces. It is a fantasy. The good news for Reform being that many voters are, to varying degrees, cakeist and fantasist, so won't be put off at all.
    Minor parties always get away with cakeism / totally unrealistic policies. Even Farage admitted at the press conference that it is. It is more signalling how you differ from the mainstream.
    Indeed. That's probably enough to bag the angriest fifth of voters. They'll need a lot of luck and better judgment if they're going to try to eat the Tories alive.
    Seems more like Farage plan is a reverse merger / takeover of the Tories and using protest vote to Reform as platform for that.
    Seems plausible.

    Tories reduced to under 100, Reform with say 1-10. At least one Tory leader candidate says merger is the answer, maybe they succeed, then Reform agrees and Farage and Tice (if elected) get plum roles in the Shadow Cabinet.
    Is Tice standing? I had a look earlier and couldn’t see where.
    Boston and Skegness innit?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,439
    edited June 17
    Heathener said:

    Litmus anecdote test of one: UPDATE

    Went for a walk with Surrey tory friend today and I’m not now convinced that she is going to vote tory afterall. She does have serious issues about how Labour is going to generate the growth it says and was again speaking about their tax rises.

    But for the most part she went on and on and on and on about how the Conservative Party were no longer her Conservative Party. How they have become nasty and lost all values of decency. That they have gone so far to the extreme that they are unrecognisable from the Party for whom she has always voted.

    Cue, perhaps, another true blue who no longer is.


    *Don’t blame the voting system. Blame yourselves.*

    Don't hate the player, hate the game.

    Edit: pretty much the only funny parts of the film are the ones with Stephen Merchant in it:

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=27owh5Cs5ms&pp=ygUQaSBnaXZlIGl0IGEgeWVhcg==
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,284

    EXCLUSIVE: Gossip is flying round senior Tory circles that David Cameron is planning to return to the Commons in an early by-election in autumn or spring. And then he will become the "One Nation" group's next leadership contender ⬇️

    https://x.com/oflynnsocial/status/1802737560055144795

    Rishi's seat (assuming he holds Richmond) ?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,455

    kyf_100 said:

    Chameleon said:

    Just got off the phone to my parents, who are splitting voting for the first time I can recall: Mum going for Reform and Dad staying Conservative.

    I wonder if the polls are fairly real. Reform still probably overcooked, but more real than not.

    Surveyed my parents & partners the last weekend - all live in a formerly Tory safe seat that is likely to go LD - from 1 Lab, 3 Con to 2 LD, 1 Con, 1 RFM was the conclusion. Not great for them.
    The Conservatives just seem to have totally eviscerated their base.

    The only saving grace is that there's still a decent fundamental centre-right vote out there in the 35-40% range.
    A best case scenario, in 2029 you get a moderate Conservative party standing against a Labour party that's put the squeeze on the middle classes for the last five years, and that 35-40%ish coalesce around a suitably chastened Conservative party that has remembered who its voters are.

    A worst case scenario, you get a Suella type in charge of the Conservatives, chasing the Reform vote and losing even more centrist voters, campaigning on culture war and small boat immigration type stuff, and they get another kicking in 2029.

    I know which one I'd rather see, but at this point, I'm afraid the latter is more likely to happen.
    Yep. All I will say is that immigration is a dog that cannot be ignored.

    But, it requires guile and political skill to solve it.
    Good luck with that
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    I've noticed lots of subsampling creeping back into PB, years after OGH rightly clamped down on it via a potent mix of persuasion and punishment.

    I am not calling for the latter, simply for the proponents of this scurrilous behaviour to sound the Subsample Klaxon before indulging in such innumerate frivolities.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,385

    kyf_100 said:

    Chameleon said:

    Just got off the phone to my parents, who are splitting voting for the first time I can recall: Mum going for Reform and Dad staying Conservative.

    I wonder if the polls are fairly real. Reform still probably overcooked, but more real than not.

    Surveyed my parents & partners the last weekend - all live in a formerly Tory safe seat that is likely to go LD - from 1 Lab, 3 Con to 2 LD, 1 Con, 1 RFM was the conclusion. Not great for them.
    The Conservatives just seem to have totally eviscerated their base.

    The only saving grace is that there's still a decent fundamental centre-right vote out there in the 35-40% range.
    A best case scenario, in 2029 you get a moderate Conservative party standing against a Labour party that's put the squeeze on the middle classes for the last five years, and that 35-40%ish coalesce around a suitably chastened Conservative party that has remembered who its voters are.

    A worst case scenario, you get a Suella type in charge of the Conservatives, chasing the Reform vote and losing even more centrist voters, campaigning on culture war and small boat immigration type stuff, and they get another kicking in 2029.

    I know which one I'd rather see, but at this point, I'm afraid the latter is more likely to happen.
    Yep. All I will say is that immigration is a dog that cannot be ignored.

    But, it requires guile and political skill to solve it.
    It also requires honesty from politicians instead of pretending to be opposed to it while driving it ever higher. Taking people,for mugs.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631
    Foxy said:

    EXCLUSIVE: Gossip is flying round senior Tory circles that David Cameron is planning to return to the Commons in an early by-election in autumn or spring. And then he will become the "One Nation" group's next leadership contender ⬇️

    https://x.com/oflynnsocial/status/1802737560055144795

    Winnable by-election? Where will that be found?
    Richmond.

    But Dave could win anywhere as I would campaign for him.

    My knocking up the voters talent is legendary.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    biggles said:

    kle4 said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    kle4 said:

    Reform UK Manifesto Conclusion

    Apart from the SDP manifesto which was all over the place, the Reform manifesto is the most distinct from others (Green/LD/Lab/Con).

    The weakest on housing of all the parties so far, saying nothing whatsoever. Plenty of red meat to excite the target audience, on immigration, crime, wokeness, probably quite effective. Surprisingly little on Brexit.

    Call it a B- : not appealing to me, but short, straightforward, and probably appealing to many disaffected Tories.

    The savings/costs seem to be random.

    The IFS ripped all their mathematics to pieces. It is a fantasy. The good news for Reform being that many voters are, to varying degrees, cakeist and fantasist, so won't be put off at all.
    Minor parties always get away with cakeism / totally unrealistic policies. Even Farage admitted at the press conference that it is. It is more signalling how you differ from the mainstream.
    Indeed. That's probably enough to bag the angriest fifth of voters. They'll need a lot of luck and better judgment if they're going to try to eat the Tories alive.
    Seems more like Farage plan is a reverse merger / takeover of the Tories and using protest vote to Reform as platform for that.
    Seems plausible.

    Tories reduced to under 100, Reform with say 1-10. At least one Tory leader candidate says merger is the answer, maybe they succeed, then Reform agrees and Farage and Tice (if elected) get plum roles in the Shadow Cabinet.
    Is Tice standing? I had a look earlier and couldn’t see where.
    Boston and Skegness

    One of the safest Tory seats in the country, which he is probably now regretting.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,052
    Foxy said:

    biggles said:

    kle4 said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    kle4 said:

    Reform UK Manifesto Conclusion

    Apart from the SDP manifesto which was all over the place, the Reform manifesto is the most distinct from others (Green/LD/Lab/Con).

    The weakest on housing of all the parties so far, saying nothing whatsoever. Plenty of red meat to excite the target audience, on immigration, crime, wokeness, probably quite effective. Surprisingly little on Brexit.

    Call it a B- : not appealing to me, but short, straightforward, and probably appealing to many disaffected Tories.

    The savings/costs seem to be random.

    The IFS ripped all their mathematics to pieces. It is a fantasy. The good news for Reform being that many voters are, to varying degrees, cakeist and fantasist, so won't be put off at all.
    Minor parties always get away with cakeism / totally unrealistic policies. Even Farage admitted at the press conference that it is. It is more signalling how you differ from the mainstream.
    Indeed. That's probably enough to bag the angriest fifth of voters. They'll need a lot of luck and better judgment if they're going to try to eat the Tories alive.
    Seems more like Farage plan is a reverse merger / takeover of the Tories and using protest vote to Reform as platform for that.
    Seems plausible.

    Tories reduced to under 100, Reform with say 1-10. At least one Tory leader candidate says merger is the answer, maybe they succeed, then Reform agrees and Farage and Tice (if elected) get plum roles in the Shadow Cabinet.
    Is Tice standing? I had a look earlier and couldn’t see where.
    Boston and Skegness innit?
    Ah ok, so one they think is “more winnable” in relative terms.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,587
    This happens to be my own view:

    "Officers who hit an escaped cow with a car "probably did the right thing at the time" according to one union chief and farmer."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cg33v21weg3o
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647

    kle4 said:

    https://x.com/DeltapollUK/status/1802755485331780094?s=19

    27 point lead, ouch!

    🚨New Voting Intention🚨
    Labour lead by 27 points in our latest poll.
    Con 19% (-2)
    Lab 46% (-)
    Lib Dem 10% (+1)
    Reform 16% (+4)
    SNP 2% (-2)
    Green 5% (-)
    Other 1% (-1)
    Fieldwork: 14th - 17th June 2024
    Sample: 1,383 GB adults
    (Changes from 6th - 8th June 2024)

    I'm just so glad Rishi called an early election to wrongfoot Reform.
    The best call since the Earl of Cardigan at Sevastapol*.

    *or whomever is best placed to be blamed.
    I can only conclude that Labour are absolutely fucking brilliant at placing plants ready to play the long game.
    I've heard three theories from reliable sources on why Rishi went for July, I'll only discuss two of them.

    1) He has had enough of the criticism and realised if he went in July or November the result would be largely the same

    2) He was worried about an Oct/Nov election getting entangled with the US election. We all know some Tories will back Trump, which is a vote loser, then you've got Trump commentating on the election which could be messy.
    The obvious time to go was May.
    Or late September and hope people had a good summer.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839
    biggles said:

    kle4 said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    kle4 said:

    Reform UK Manifesto Conclusion

    Apart from the SDP manifesto which was all over the place, the Reform manifesto is the most distinct from others (Green/LD/Lab/Con).

    The weakest on housing of all the parties so far, saying nothing whatsoever. Plenty of red meat to excite the target audience, on immigration, crime, wokeness, probably quite effective. Surprisingly little on Brexit.

    Call it a B- : not appealing to me, but short, straightforward, and probably appealing to many disaffected Tories.

    The savings/costs seem to be random.

    The IFS ripped all their mathematics to pieces. It is a fantasy. The good news for Reform being that many voters are, to varying degrees, cakeist and fantasist, so won't be put off at all.
    Minor parties always get away with cakeism / totally unrealistic policies. Even Farage admitted at the press conference that it is. It is more signalling how you differ from the mainstream.
    Indeed. That's probably enough to bag the angriest fifth of voters. They'll need a lot of luck and better judgment if they're going to try to eat the Tories alive.
    Seems more like Farage plan is a reverse merger / takeover of the Tories and using protest vote to Reform as platform for that.
    Seems plausible.

    Tories reduced to under 100, Reform with say 1-10. At least one Tory leader candidate says merger is the answer, maybe they succeed, then Reform agrees and Farage and Tice (if elected) get plum roles in the Shadow Cabinet.
    Is Tice standing? I had a look earlier and couldn’t see where.
    Boston and Skegness.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,874
    edited June 17
    kyf_100 said:


    That result leads to a really worrying situation for democracy.

    You'd have the Lib Dems as the official opposition, and just 35 seats for Con and RefUK combined, despite their winning 36% of the national vote share combined.

    I was dismissive last week of Cleitophon's concern of a 'January 6th style event' and to be honest I still am. But I could easily see how a Faragist insurgency spends the next five years whipping up discontent on the basis of 'the right wing were just 7% behind Labour in this election, but have virtually no representation in our Parliamentary system.'

    I know that is how FPTP works, but it's not healthy for democracy when a large number of people no longer think the system is working for them, or adequately representing their voices in Parliament. You could see how a result like this could drive a small but not insignificant number of discontents into the arms of the 'democracy has failed us' far right types.

    It's not sure about "really worrying situation" for our democracy.

    The ending of certainties with which we've all become familiar can be difficult (look at what happened with the fall of the Warsaw Pact in 1989 and yet 35 years we still seem to see Russia as "the enemy" just as we did when the Red Army was two hours drive from the Rhine).

    IF it happens it will be a seismic event for both the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats in different ways and for different reasons. I don't know what will happen and that's part of the "fun" - we really would be in uncharted territory.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    kle4 said:

    https://x.com/DeltapollUK/status/1802755485331780094?s=19

    27 point lead, ouch!

    🚨New Voting Intention🚨
    Labour lead by 27 points in our latest poll.
    Con 19% (-2)
    Lab 46% (-)
    Lib Dem 10% (+1)
    Reform 16% (+4)
    SNP 2% (-2)
    Green 5% (-)
    Other 1% (-1)
    Fieldwork: 14th - 17th June 2024
    Sample: 1,383 GB adults
    (Changes from 6th - 8th June 2024)

    I'm just so glad Rishi called an early election to wrongfoot Reform.
    The best call since the Earl of Cardigan at Sevastapol*.

    *or whomever is best placed to be blamed.
    I can only conclude that Labour are absolutely fucking brilliant at placing plants ready to play the long game.
    I've heard three theories from reliable sources on why Rishi went for July, I'll only discuss two of them.

    1) He has had enough of the criticism and realised if he went in July or November the result would be largely the same

    2) He was worried about an Oct/Nov election getting entangled with the US election. We all know some Tories will back Trump, which is a vote loser, then you've got Trump commentating on the election which could be messy.
    The obvious time to go was May.
    Indeed. I remain baffled as to why he chose July over May. A question nobody has seemingly answered. One of the great mysteries of modern politics.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    GIN1138 said:

    EXCLUSIVE: Gossip is flying round senior Tory circles that David Cameron is planning to return to the Commons in an early by-election in autumn or spring. And then he will become the "One Nation" group's next leadership contender ⬇️

    https://x.com/oflynnsocial/status/1802737560055144795

    Rishi's seat (assuming he holds Richmond) ?
    That actually would make sense as an option, even if the plan itself does not.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    The Tories are seriously testing my resolve to not extend my betting purse for this election. Outside of a handful of bets that I thought were too good to pass up (RFM losing Clacton, RFM 8-12% in the teens), everything else is looking more likely than when I made the bet.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    biggles said:

    Chameleon said:

    Just got off the phone to my parents, who are splitting voting for the first time I can recall: Mum going for Reform and Dad staying Conservative.

    I wonder if the polls are fairly real. Reform still probably overcooked, but more real than not.

    Surveyed my parents & partners the last weekend - all live in a formerly Tory safe seat that is likely to go LD - from 1 Lab, 3 Con to 2 LD, 1 Con, 1 RFM was the conclusion. Not great for them.
    The Conservatives just seem to have totally eviscerated their base.

    The only saving grace is that there's still a decent fundamental centre-right vote out there in the 35-40% range.

    But I think we’re in a new, more volatile end, and we might [be] discussing Labour’s obituary again in 2029.
    Of course you do, or you think you do.

    The truth is beginning to dawn on the Conservatives that a long time in Government is coming crash down.

    You won’t be coming back in 2029. You may not even be back in contention in 2034/5. The earliest election that the British people would be ready to trust you with their mortgages again is 2039.

    Enjoy the desert.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,432

    kle4 said:

    https://x.com/DeltapollUK/status/1802755485331780094?s=19

    27 point lead, ouch!

    🚨New Voting Intention🚨
    Labour lead by 27 points in our latest poll.
    Con 19% (-2)
    Lab 46% (-)
    Lib Dem 10% (+1)
    Reform 16% (+4)
    SNP 2% (-2)
    Green 5% (-)
    Other 1% (-1)
    Fieldwork: 14th - 17th June 2024
    Sample: 1,383 GB adults
    (Changes from 6th - 8th June 2024)

    I'm just so glad Rishi called an early election to wrongfoot Reform.
    The best call since the Earl of Cardigan at Sevastapol*.

    *or whomever is best placed to be blamed.
    I can only conclude that Labour are absolutely fucking brilliant at placing plants ready to play the long game.
    I've heard three theories from reliable sources on why Rishi went for July, I'll only discuss two of them.

    1) He has had enough of the criticism and realised if he went in July or November the result would be largely the same

    2) He was worried about an Oct/Nov election getting entangled with the US election. We all know some Tories will back Trump, which is a vote loser, then you've got Trump commentating on the election which could be messy.
    All rumours, but:

    3) There was due to be a leadership challenge where Andrea Leadsom (Gor bless 'er) was implicated. Sort of tallies with the MPs who reisgned when he called the election.

    4) His Green Card was running out.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Heathener said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Labour could get a 200 odd seat majority with 40% of the vote.

    This is very worrying.

    It would be really great if the Conservatives, or what’s left of them, could start addressing their own problems and why they may be about to get a shellacking.

    Rather than the system from which they have benefited for 33 out of the last 47 years.

    This is starting to smack of desperation.
    I'm sure our Liberal friends on here will raise a wry smile at the PB Tories' newfound enthusiasm for PR.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    Foxy said:

    EXCLUSIVE: Gossip is flying round senior Tory circles that David Cameron is planning to return to the Commons in an early by-election in autumn or spring. And then he will become the "One Nation" group's next leadership contender ⬇️

    https://x.com/oflynnsocial/status/1802737560055144795

    Winnable by-election? Where will that be found?
    Richmond.

    But Dave could win anywhere as I would campaign for him.

    My knocking up the voters talent is legendary.
    All jesting aside, Cameron was the future once. No more. I’m sorry for you but it’s time you accepted it.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839
    kle4 said:

    biggles said:

    kle4 said:

    pigeon said:

    pigeon said:

    kle4 said:

    Reform UK Manifesto Conclusion

    Apart from the SDP manifesto which was all over the place, the Reform manifesto is the most distinct from others (Green/LD/Lab/Con).

    The weakest on housing of all the parties so far, saying nothing whatsoever. Plenty of red meat to excite the target audience, on immigration, crime, wokeness, probably quite effective. Surprisingly little on Brexit.

    Call it a B- : not appealing to me, but short, straightforward, and probably appealing to many disaffected Tories.

    The savings/costs seem to be random.

    The IFS ripped all their mathematics to pieces. It is a fantasy. The good news for Reform being that many voters are, to varying degrees, cakeist and fantasist, so won't be put off at all.
    Minor parties always get away with cakeism / totally unrealistic policies. Even Farage admitted at the press conference that it is. It is more signalling how you differ from the mainstream.
    Indeed. That's probably enough to bag the angriest fifth of voters. They'll need a lot of luck and better judgment if they're going to try to eat the Tories alive.
    Seems more like Farage plan is a reverse merger / takeover of the Tories and using protest vote to Reform as platform for that.
    Seems plausible.

    Tories reduced to under 100, Reform with say 1-10. At least one Tory leader candidate says merger is the answer, maybe they succeed, then Reform agrees and Farage and Tice (if elected) get plum roles in the Shadow Cabinet.
    Is Tice standing? I had a look earlier and couldn’t see where.
    Boston and Skegness

    One of the safest Tory seats in the country, which he is probably now regretting.
    The seat is old, poor and white, with a very low number of graduates and (I believe) the highest EU leave vote in the country. Insofar as Reform are capable of winning anything, this is one of the most likely targets.

    Might end up as a Con Lab Ref three-way marginal. See also Clacton.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,759
    Foxy said:

    EXCLUSIVE: Gossip is flying round senior Tory circles that David Cameron is planning to return to the Commons in an early by-election in autumn or spring. And then he will become the "One Nation" group's next leadership contender ⬇️

    https://x.com/oflynnsocial/status/1802737560055144795

    Winnable by-election? Where will that be found?
    Braverman seems to have the sort of safe Tory seat where a nicely deployed elbow might create a vacancy. If not then it's nicely poised for a joint Army/Navy exercise, and it's a while since we've tested our tactical nukes.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,293

    EXCLUSIVE: Gossip is flying round senior Tory circles that David Cameron is planning to return to the Commons in an early by-election in autumn or spring. And then he will become the "One Nation" group's next leadership contender ⬇️

    https://x.com/oflynnsocial/status/1802737560055144795

    Reform might massively target whatever seat he stands in to stop him winning it… will there be any seat he could even be parachuted in to?

    The Scottish Borders or Outer London.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663

    From the excellent Beyond Topline on the strength of the Lib Dem Tactical Vote

    @OwenWntr: Interesting some polling data I'm looking at has Lib Dem retention from 2019 at 78% in seats where they came 1st or 2nd, and 44% where they didn't”

    This *strongly* suggests the Lib Dem bump is due to tactical voting.

    If this is replicated in a general election, this implies *much* stronger tactical voting than 1997.

    In 1997, Lib Dems retained ~64.5% of their 1992 vote where they were 2nd, ~50% where Labour was.

    https://x.com/beyond_topline/status/1802732115496202641?s=61

    I have been extremely bullish on Lib Dem seat totals because of the above - the increased prevalence of tactical voting websites COMBINED with the fact that unlike in 2019, it’s A. Starmer instead of Corbyn, and B. Brexit being ‘done’ - makes it much much easier for Lib Dem and Labour voters to vote ‘for the other one’

    So the incredible amazing superb “Beyond Topline” has woken up to the DUTCH SALUTE …two years after it was explained and predicted on PB? oh - Whoopee flipping doo. 🤮

    They only had to go into PB, search on Dutch Salute, the promise of the current late Lab > LibDem drift as TVs firm up leading to 16% LibDem PV was all there - and prior to vote day, that declining Labour vote in the last weeks, days and on the day, even closing Tory to Lab gap (if Sunak hadn’t been utterly shit) getting (some, the dumb ones) Tories ever so excited at shrinking Lab share, even though it actually means they are on a beach excited about the sea recede away to nothing in front of them, so it means these ignorant idiots actually excited about a bizarre occurrence going on in front of them, that’s about to wipe them out.

    And all those of everyone who went gangbusters, laughing and laughing at MoonRabbit and wetting themselves, when I posted TWO YEARS ago now, Thangham Debonaire will lose to a Green - have collective amnesia that they should have been first on ahead of the rest and on at the best odds. Because they were flipping told.

    Enough now.


    I know you spent weeks banging on about the 'Dutch Salute' but not with ever enough clarity for me to have a fecking clue what you were alluding to, beyond some reference to Dutch women exposing their chests.

    I still don't know what point you were trying to make tbh.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Charlie Falconer's son Hamish is standing for Labour in Lincoln.

    https://x.com/Hamish4Lincs
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494

    Heathener said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Labour could get a 200 odd seat majority with 40% of the vote.

    This is very worrying.

    It would be really great if the Conservatives, or what’s left of them, could start addressing their own problems and why they may be about to get a shellacking.

    Rather than the system from which they have benefited for 33 out of the last 47 years.

    This is starting to smack of desperation.
    I'm sure our Liberal friends on here will raise a wry smile at the PB Tories' newfound enthusiasm for PR.
    indeed, but looking at some of the MRP polls which have come out of late, there's a lot of seats which could be won on minimal vote share. The last Survation one had 25 seats being won on less than 30% and 93 on less that 33.34%
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,219
    Heathener said:

    Foxy said:

    EXCLUSIVE: Gossip is flying round senior Tory circles that David Cameron is planning to return to the Commons in an early by-election in autumn or spring. And then he will become the "One Nation" group's next leadership contender ⬇️

    https://x.com/oflynnsocial/status/1802737560055144795

    Winnable by-election? Where will that be found?
    Richmond.

    But Dave could win anywhere as I would campaign for him.

    My knocking up the voters talent is legendary.
    All jesting aside, Cameron was the future once. No more. I’m sorry for you but it’s time you accepted it.
    Do the timings particularly work?

    If Rishi loses to the degree that he's likely to, surely he can't hang around long enough to get Dave back in?

    (But long story short, Dave took over the Conservative leadership nearly twenty years ago. If he's the answer, One Nation Conservatives are asking the wrong question.)
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,432
    Omnium said:

    Foxy said:

    EXCLUSIVE: Gossip is flying round senior Tory circles that David Cameron is planning to return to the Commons in an early by-election in autumn or spring. And then he will become the "One Nation" group's next leadership contender ⬇️

    https://x.com/oflynnsocial/status/1802737560055144795

    Winnable by-election? Where will that be found?
    Braverman seems to have the sort of safe Tory seat where a nicely deployed elbow might create a vacancy. If not then it's nicely poised for a joint Army/Navy exercise, and it's a while since we've tested our tactical nukes.
    Because we don't have any.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Andy_JS said:

    Charlie Falconer's son Hamish is standing for Labour in Lincoln.

    https://x.com/Hamish4Lincs

    Will the Good Lord have to resign?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,052
    edited June 17
    Heathener said:

    biggles said:

    Chameleon said:

    Just got off the phone to my parents, who are splitting voting for the first time I can recall: Mum going for Reform and Dad staying Conservative.

    I wonder if the polls are fairly real. Reform still probably overcooked, but more real than not.

    Surveyed my parents & partners the last weekend - all live in a formerly Tory safe seat that is likely to go LD - from 1 Lab, 3 Con to 2 LD, 1 Con, 1 RFM was the conclusion. Not great for them.
    The Conservatives just seem to have totally eviscerated their base.

    The only saving grace is that there's still a decent fundamental centre-right vote out there in the 35-40% range.

    But I think we’re in a new, more volatile end, and we might [be] discussing Labour’s obituary again in 2029.
    Of course you do, or you think you do.

    The truth is beginning to dawn on the Conservatives that a long time in Government is coming crash down.

    You won’t be coming back in 2029. You may not even be back in contention in 2034/5. The earliest election that the British people would be ready to trust you with their mortgages again is 2039.

    Enjoy the desert.
    You keep making assumptions about me and putting words in my mouth. It’s really boring. Stop it.

    Who is “you” in this anyway? I’m not a member of the Conservative Party and couldn’t care less if it’s destroyed. Nor am I one of its reliable voters.

    Even if it’s not getting more volatile (and the lack of a “normal” election since 2010 does make me doubt that) that would mean Starmer getting three to four terms. Whichever party displaces him, and whatever name it has, it will be with a centre right to right agenda.

    Meanwhile, he’s just fine, and will mostly do very little.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,759

    Omnium said:

    Foxy said:

    EXCLUSIVE: Gossip is flying round senior Tory circles that David Cameron is planning to return to the Commons in an early by-election in autumn or spring. And then he will become the "One Nation" group's next leadership contender ⬇️

    https://x.com/oflynnsocial/status/1802737560055144795

    Winnable by-election? Where will that be found?
    Braverman seems to have the sort of safe Tory seat where a nicely deployed elbow might create a vacancy. If not then it's nicely poised for a joint Army/Navy exercise, and it's a while since we've tested our tactical nukes.
    Because we don't have any.
    Always with the technicalities!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647
    Good header @Quincel

    Leicester East is a crazy seat, but I really wouldn't bet on Labour at current odds.

    The Labour East constituency party is faction ridden, and the suppression of the attempted putsch by Labour councillors against Mayor Soulsby last year has left a lot of ill feeling and created the One Leicester Party. I don't think Webbe has any real support as she has been a useless and absent MP. It is also one of the country's most Hindu seats, and one of the few where Sunak is popular.

    The politics is internecine and opaque, but I reckon on a 3 way battle between Lab, Con and Vaz. Stop laughing at the back but Vaz is very popular there and ran a patronage programme that owes him lots of favours.

    I reckon a narrow Lab win but either Con or Vaz could win. I got on Vaz at 41, but the current 29 is still value.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    3 hours to get out of Ukraine at the Moldovan border



    But, we’re out of the war now

    *breaks into that last song from Oh What a Lovely
    War*

    https://youtu.be/yqrc46ouZz8?si=KkS02CnkYFfeYr6l
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    edited June 17
    Omnium said:

    Foxy said:

    EXCLUSIVE: Gossip is flying round senior Tory circles that David Cameron is planning to return to the Commons in an early by-election in autumn or spring. And then he will become the "One Nation" group's next leadership contender ⬇️

    https://x.com/oflynnsocial/status/1802737560055144795

    Winnable by-election? Where will that be found?
    Braverman seems to have the sort of safe Tory seat where a nicely deployed elbow might create a vacancy. If not then it's nicely poised for a joint Army/Navy exercise, and it's a while since we've tested our tactical nukes.
    Braverman stepping aside for Dave to be the 'One-Nation' leader?

    In other news, Putin is planning to hand over control of Russia to a UN peace keeping force.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,052
    Andy_JS said:

    Charlie Falconer's son Hamish is standing for Labour in Lincoln.

    https://x.com/Hamish4Lincs

    Any news on his Dad’s resignation?
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,747

    EXCLUSIVE: Gossip is flying round senior Tory circles that David Cameron is planning to return to the Commons in an early by-election in autumn or spring. And then he will become the "One Nation" group's next leadership contender ⬇️

    https://x.com/oflynnsocial/status/1802737560055144795

    Could be Dave versus Boris.

    Very credible article by Andrew Gimson why Boris, rather than Farage, could be beneficiary of the election going less than optimally for the Blues..

    https://conservativehome.com/2024/06/16/johnson-is-preparing-to-run-again/
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    What about shy tories though?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631

    EXCLUSIVE: Gossip is flying round senior Tory circles that David Cameron is planning to return to the Commons in an early by-election in autumn or spring. And then he will become the "One Nation" group's next leadership contender ⬇️

    https://x.com/oflynnsocial/status/1802737560055144795

    Could be Dave versus Boris.

    Very credible article by Andrew Gimson why Boris, rather than Farage, could be beneficiary of the election going less than optimally for the Blues..

    https://conservativehome.com/2024/06/16/johnson-is-preparing-to-run-again/
    Boris Johnson is too lazy to do the hard yards of Leader of the Opposition and also he likes earning money.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    @TomHCalver
    Around 15% of voters are still undecided. Which way are they leaning?

    For months there was an assumption that these undecided voters – of which plenty voted Tory in 2019 – would lean Tory again

    Yet @Survation's latest MRP suggests when pressed, they're breaking for Labour


    https://x.com/TomHCalver/status/1802744645132132510
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,377

    Scott_xP said:
    An entirely unhelpful and counterproductive comment by Gauke that simply fires the starting pistol in an interfratricidal war.

    The Party must be better than this.
    It's investing a huge amount too much importance in the notice anyone takes of Gauke to imagine him firing the starting pistol on anything. He's a bitter old ex-Tory irritant, nothing more.
    Not sure why you're so hostile to Gauke - you called him repulsive earlier. Obviously his politics are different from yours - he's an old-school one-nation Tory, but he's still a Tory. It's to their credit that Conservative Home give him a platform every month or so, although his articles attract comments much like yours. But he's a pretty harmless chap undeserving of such vitriol, as far as I can see.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    This feels like an appropriately distracted moment to raise my hands, though not in a charismatic way, and confess that I was talking complete rubbish about Big John’s data.

    I’m still baffled as to what it was attempting to show etc. etc. but that doesn’t alter the fact that I completely misread the two datasets.

    There. I feel better now. Like in those school days when everyone knows it was you who raided the kitchen.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,052
    Foxy said:

    Good header @Quincel

    Leicester East is a crazy seat, but I really wouldn't bet on Labour at current odds.

    The Labour East constituency party is faction ridden, and the suppression of the attempted putsch by Labour councillors against Mayor Soulsby last year has left a lot of ill feeling and created the One Leicester Party. I don't think Webbe has any real support as she has been a useless and absent MP. It is also one of the country's most Hindu seats, and one of the few where Sunak is popular.

    The politics is internecine and opaque, but I reckon on a 3 way battle between Lab, Con and Vaz. Stop laughing at the back but Vaz is very popular there and ran a patronage programme that owes him lots of favours.

    I reckon a narrow Lab win but either Con or Vaz could win. I got on Vaz at 41, but the current 29 is still value.

    What’s Vaz actually campaigning on locally? Him as a local MP?
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    kinabalu said:

    What about shy tories though?

    You know how tortoises retreat fully into their shell and do nothing when very shy? Well that's their plan for the 4th I believe.
  • Hot off the press anecdotal from Croydon South:

    "Just had the conservative candidate for Croydon around. Said I’m voting reform and he got annoyed"
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,293
    edited June 17
    Come to think of it, maybe the SCONS should have parachuted Cameron into Aberdeenshire North and Moray East instead of Douglas Ross. I'm sure @RochdalePioneers would have relished taking the fight to Dave.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631
    Heathener said:

    This feels like an appropriately distracted moment to raise my hands, though not in a charismatic way, and confess that I was talking complete rubbish about Big John’s data.

    I’m still baffled as to what it was attempting to show etc. etc. but that doesn’t alter the fact that I completely misread the two datasets.

    There. I feel better now. Like in those school days when everyone knows it was you who raided the kitchen.

    What it shows is there are a large number of undecideds.

    Back in the day OGH used to flag this up when he thought the polls were overstating one party or another.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663

    EXCLUSIVE: Gossip is flying round senior Tory circles that David Cameron is planning to return to the Commons in an early by-election in autumn or spring. And then he will become the "One Nation" group's next leadership contender ⬇️

    https://x.com/oflynnsocial/status/1802737560055144795

    Could be Dave versus Boris.

    Very credible article by Andrew Gimson why Boris, rather than Farage, could be beneficiary of the election going less than optimally for the Blues..

    https://conservativehome.com/2024/06/16/johnson-is-preparing-to-run-again/
    Ffs the cadaver of the Right being fought over by Cameron, Johnson and Farage would be hilarious.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,504

    kle4 said:

    https://x.com/DeltapollUK/status/1802755485331780094?s=19

    27 point lead, ouch!

    🚨New Voting Intention🚨
    Labour lead by 27 points in our latest poll.
    Con 19% (-2)
    Lab 46% (-)
    Lib Dem 10% (+1)
    Reform 16% (+4)
    SNP 2% (-2)
    Green 5% (-)
    Other 1% (-1)
    Fieldwork: 14th - 17th June 2024
    Sample: 1,383 GB adults
    (Changes from 6th - 8th June 2024)

    I'm just so glad Rishi called an early election to wrongfoot Reform.
    The best call since the Earl of Cardigan at Sevastapol*.

    *or whomever is best placed to be blamed.
    I can only conclude that Labour are absolutely fucking brilliant at placing plants ready to play the long game.
    I've heard three theories from reliable sources on why Rishi went for July, I'll only discuss two of them.

    1) He has had enough of the criticism and realised if he went in July or November the result would be largely the same

    2) He was worried about an Oct/Nov election getting entangled with the US election. We all know some Tories will back Trump, which is a vote loser, then you've got Trump commentating on the election which could be messy.
    I not only predicted 4th July, so it couldn’t come as a complete shock to PBers, but I told you all the reasoning as to why in the weeks and months before they even started reasoning it for themselves.

    Waiting for interest rate cut had run out of road, this meant mortgage and re-mortgage pain all up to autumn election. July and summer would bring not only surge to a record of Channel crossings, but none of the long promised covid flights as it got bogged down in courts. A Covid report, to put the “after that how can we trust you ever again?” on voters lips in time for autumn campaign. Autumn also brings higher energy prices and food prices, and inflation creeping back up. It could also mean a party conference, and a fiscal event for which there was no money left for rabbits from the pre election hat, at least not in these days of the OBR, the so called headroom Hunt had invented, he had already maxxed out.

    They are not bright this Tory top team - Sunak’s switch to now fighting on individual freedom and aspiration for working families in his hustings speeches this week, wouldn’t have happened if I hadn’t told him to do that on PB. Tory’s are making this campaign up as they go along, from reading PB and cribbing from my posts in particular.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    War is to men what romance is to women

    Men read military history; women read romantic fiction

    Men fancy themselves as soldiers; women imagine themselves as beauties

    Both are fantasies, both are eternal, both are corrosively intoxicating
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631
    edited June 17

    kle4 said:

    https://x.com/DeltapollUK/status/1802755485331780094?s=19

    27 point lead, ouch!

    🚨New Voting Intention🚨
    Labour lead by 27 points in our latest poll.
    Con 19% (-2)
    Lab 46% (-)
    Lib Dem 10% (+1)
    Reform 16% (+4)
    SNP 2% (-2)
    Green 5% (-)
    Other 1% (-1)
    Fieldwork: 14th - 17th June 2024
    Sample: 1,383 GB adults
    (Changes from 6th - 8th June 2024)

    I'm just so glad Rishi called an early election to wrongfoot Reform.
    The best call since the Earl of Cardigan at Sevastapol*.

    *or whomever is best placed to be blamed.
    I can only conclude that Labour are absolutely fucking brilliant at placing plants ready to play the long game.
    I've heard three theories from reliable sources on why Rishi went for July, I'll only discuss two of them.

    1) He has had enough of the criticism and realised if he went in July or November the result would be largely the same

    2) He was worried about an Oct/Nov election getting entangled with the US election. We all know some Tories will back Trump, which is a vote loser, then you've got Trump commentating on the election which could be messy.
    I not only predicted 4th July, so it couldn’t come as a complete shock to PBers, but I told you all the reasoning as to why in the weeks and months before they even started reasoning it for themselves.

    Waiting for interest rate cut had run out of road, this meant mortgage and re-mortgage pain all up to autumn election. July and summer would bring not only surge to a record of Channel crossings, but none of the long promised covid flights as it got bogged down in courts. A Covid report, to put the “after that how can we trust you ever again?” on voters lips in time for autumn campaign. Autumn also brings higher energy prices and food prices, and inflation creeping back up. It could also mean a party conference, and a fiscal event for which there was no money left for rabbits from the pre election hat, at least not in these days of the OBR, the so called headroom Hunt had invented, he had already maxxed out.

    They are not bright this Tory top team - Sunak’s switch to now fighting on individual freedom and aspiration for working families in his hustings speeches this week, wouldn’t have happened if I hadn’t told him to do that on PB. Tory’s are making this campaign up as they go along, from reading PB and cribbing from my posts in particular.
    You also predicted May.

    Now people like me tipped July at 20s.

    Can you boast of such a tip?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,052
    edited June 17

    Scott_xP said:
    An entirely unhelpful and counterproductive comment by Gauke that simply fires the starting pistol in an interfratricidal war.

    The Party must be better than this.
    It's investing a huge amount too much importance in the notice anyone takes of Gauke to imagine him firing the starting pistol on anything. He's a bitter old ex-Tory irritant, nothing more.
    Not sure why you're so hostile to Gauke - you called him repulsive earlier. Obviously his politics are different from yours - he's an old-school one-nation Tory, but he's still a Tory. It's to their credit that Conservative Home give him a platform every month or so, although his articles attract comments much like yours. But he's a pretty harmless chap undeserving of such vitriol, as far as I can see.
    See, what I take issue with is people calling Gauke (or Cameron/Osborne) “one nation”. When you look at what they they did to the benefits system, and the line they took on its recipients, I would describe them as pretty economically dry Tories. We’ve ended up recasting anyone who voted against Brexit as one nation. See also Ken Clarke - he’s a keep of the Thatcherite flame. I would describe a one nation Tory as more of a 1950s paternalist that’s extinct now. The people who were pushed out as “wet”. My kind of Tory.
  • biggles said:

    Foxy said:

    Good header @Quincel

    Leicester East is a crazy seat, but I really wouldn't bet on Labour at current odds.

    The Labour East constituency party is faction ridden, and the suppression of the attempted putsch by Labour councillors against Mayor Soulsby last year has left a lot of ill feeling and created the One Leicester Party. I don't think Webbe has any real support as she has been a useless and absent MP. It is also one of the country's most Hindu seats, and one of the few where Sunak is popular.

    The politics is internecine and opaque, but I reckon on a 3 way battle between Lab, Con and Vaz. Stop laughing at the back but Vaz is very popular there and ran a patronage programme that owes him lots of favours.

    I reckon a narrow Lab win but either Con or Vaz could win. I got on Vaz at 41, but the current 29 is still value.

    What’s Vaz actually campaigning on locally? Him as a local MP?
    Foxy is right on the money here - but I suspect a big lead among non-Hindu voters will get Lab home. Not all Hindus are Cons and I can say from anecdotal experience that not all Hindu Cons have time for Mr Sunak. There will be a Reform vote there.ii
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    Heathener said:

    This feels like an appropriately distracted moment to raise my hands, though not in a charismatic way, and confess that I was talking complete rubbish about Big John’s data.

    I’m still baffled as to what it was attempting to show etc. etc. but that doesn’t alter the fact that I completely misread the two datasets.

    There. I feel better now. Like in those school days when everyone knows it was you who raided the kitchen.

    What it shows is there are a large number of undecideds.

    Back in the day OGH used to flag this up when he thought the polls were overstating one party or another.
    Thanks @TSE

    Speaking of him, is there any update that family or you are able to share, or is it too private and difficult? I’m guessing he is too ill to be helped pen one last thread header for this possibly seismic election? @rcs1000

    I won’t ask again as it’s intrusive but we all miss him.

    xx
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    Foxy said:

    EXCLUSIVE: Gossip is flying round senior Tory circles that David Cameron is planning to return to the Commons in an early by-election in autumn or spring. And then he will become the "One Nation" group's next leadership contender ⬇️

    https://x.com/oflynnsocial/status/1802737560055144795

    Winnable by-election? Where will that be found?
    Richmond if Sunak holds looks the obvious one to me.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    Heathener said:

    This feels like an appropriately distracted moment to raise my hands, though not in a charismatic way, and confess that I was talking complete rubbish about Big John’s data.

    I’m still baffled as to what it was attempting to show etc. etc. but that doesn’t alter the fact that I completely misread the two datasets.

    There. I feel better now. Like in those school days when everyone knows it was you who raided the kitchen.

    The "tuck shop", you mean?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Leon said:

    War is to men what romance is to women

    Men read military history; women read romantic fiction

    Men fancy themselves as soldiers; women imagine themselves as beauties

    Both are fantasies, both are eternal, both are corrosively intoxicating

    I found today’s YouGov that found both Starmer and Rayner more popular than your boy Farage corrosively intoxicating.
  • kle4 said:

    https://x.com/DeltapollUK/status/1802755485331780094?s=19

    27 point lead, ouch!

    🚨New Voting Intention🚨
    Labour lead by 27 points in our latest poll.
    Con 19% (-2)
    Lab 46% (-)
    Lib Dem 10% (+1)
    Reform 16% (+4)
    SNP 2% (-2)
    Green 5% (-)
    Other 1% (-1)
    Fieldwork: 14th - 17th June 2024
    Sample: 1,383 GB adults
    (Changes from 6th - 8th June 2024)

    I'm just so glad Rishi called an early election to wrongfoot Reform.
    The best call since the Earl of Cardigan at Sevastapol*.

    *or whomever is best placed to be blamed.
    I can only conclude that Labour are absolutely fucking brilliant at placing plants ready to play the long game.
    I've heard three theories from reliable sources on why Rishi went for July, I'll only discuss two of them.

    1) He has had enough of the criticism and realised if he went in July or November the result would be largely the same

    2) He was worried about an Oct/Nov election getting entangled with the US election. We all know some Tories will back Trump, which is a vote loser, then you've got Trump commentating on the election which could be messy.
    I not only predicted 4th July, so it couldn’t come as a complete shock to PBers, but I told you all the reasoning as to why in the weeks and months before they even started reasoning it for themselves.

    Waiting for interest rate cut had run out of road, this meant mortgage and re-mortgage pain all up to autumn election. July and summer would bring not only surge to a record of Channel crossings, but none of the long promised covid flights as it got bogged down in courts. A Covid report, to put the “after that how can we trust you ever again?” on voters lips in time for autumn campaign. Autumn also brings higher energy prices and food prices, and inflation creeping back up. It could also mean a party conference, and a fiscal event for which there was no money left for rabbits from the pre election hat, at least not in these days of the OBR, the so called headroom Hunt had invented, he had already maxxed out.

    They are not bright this Tory top team - Sunak’s switch to now fighting on individual freedom and aspiration for working families in his hustings speeches this week, wouldn’t have happened if I hadn’t told him to do that on PB. Tory’s are making this campaign up as they go along, from reading PB and cribbing from my posts in particular.
    You also predicted May.

    Now people like me tipped July at 20s.

    Can you boast of such a tip?
    You put money on July at 20's?

    Your name will go on ze list!
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,779
    Leon said:

    War is to men what romance is to women

    Men read military history; women read romantic fiction

    Men fancy themselves as soldiers; women imagine themselves as beauties

    Both are fantasies, both are eternal, both are corrosively intoxicating

    I'm more of a musical theatre kind of guy. War is boring.
  • So we have two streams of polling - the 'adjusted' and the 'unadjusted'. I would be betting in line with the former. When Opinium and Survation put out polls with almost identical results it will take some persuading to get me to ignore them. The issue may now be those undecided ex-Cons who finally decide to poll. Will they vote to save the current incarnation of their old party or will they vote to destroy it. A lot of them seem minded to do the latter and Reform is a handy non-Bolshevik weapon to use
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Leon said:

    War is to men what romance is to women

    Men read military history; women read romantic fiction

    Men fancy themselves as soldiers; women imagine themselves as beauties

    Both are fantasies, both are eternal, both are corrosively intoxicating

    I'm more of a musical theatre kind of guy. War is boring.
    I said “men”
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663

    Foxy said:

    EXCLUSIVE: Gossip is flying round senior Tory circles that David Cameron is planning to return to the Commons in an early by-election in autumn or spring. And then he will become the "One Nation" group's next leadership contender ⬇️

    https://x.com/oflynnsocial/status/1802737560055144795

    Winnable by-election? Where will that be found?
    Richmond.

    But Dave could win anywhere as I would campaign for him.

    My knocking up the voters talent is legendary.
    But to be expected: Tories always screw the voters.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    EXCLUSIVE: Gossip is flying round senior Tory circles that David Cameron is planning to return to the Commons in an early by-election in autumn or spring. And then he will become the "One Nation" group's next leadership contender ⬇️

    https://x.com/oflynnsocial/status/1802737560055144795

    Winnable by-election? Where will that be found?
    Richmond if Sunak holds looks the obvious one to me.
    No - he pinky promised to serve the full Parliament if elected.
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405

    kle4 said:

    https://x.com/DeltapollUK/status/1802755485331780094?s=19

    27 point lead, ouch!

    🚨New Voting Intention🚨
    Labour lead by 27 points in our latest poll.
    Con 19% (-2)
    Lab 46% (-)
    Lib Dem 10% (+1)
    Reform 16% (+4)
    SNP 2% (-2)
    Green 5% (-)
    Other 1% (-1)
    Fieldwork: 14th - 17th June 2024
    Sample: 1,383 GB adults
    (Changes from 6th - 8th June 2024)

    I'm just so glad Rishi called an early election to wrongfoot Reform.
    The best call since the Earl of Cardigan at Sevastapol*.

    *or whomever is best placed to be blamed.
    I can only conclude that Labour are absolutely fucking brilliant at placing plants ready to play the long game.
    I've heard three theories from reliable sources on why Rishi went for July, I'll only discuss two of them.

    1) He has had enough of the criticism and realised if he went in July or November the result would be largely the same

    2) He was worried about an Oct/Nov election getting entangled with the US election. We all know some Tories will back Trump, which is a vote loser, then you've got Trump commentating on the election which could be messy.
    I not only predicted 4th July, so it couldn’t come as a complete shock to PBers, but I told you all the reasoning as to why in the weeks and months before they even started reasoning it for themselves.

    Waiting for interest rate cut had run out of road, this meant mortgage and re-mortgage pain all up to autumn election. July and summer would bring not only surge to a record of Channel crossings, but none of the long promised covid flights as it got bogged down in courts. A Covid report, to put the “after that how can we trust you ever again?” on voters lips in time for autumn campaign. Autumn also brings higher energy prices and food prices, and inflation creeping back up. It could also mean a party conference, and a fiscal event for which there was no money left for rabbits from the pre election hat, at least not in these days of the OBR, the so called headroom Hunt had invented, he had already maxxed out.

    They are not bright this Tory top team - Sunak’s switch to now fighting on individual freedom and aspiration for working families in his hustings speeches this week, wouldn’t have happened if I hadn’t told him to do that on PB. Tory’s are making this campaign up as they go along, from reading PB and cribbing from my posts in particular.
    Konigsdammerung will turn out to be the correct theory
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631

    kle4 said:

    https://x.com/DeltapollUK/status/1802755485331780094?s=19

    27 point lead, ouch!

    🚨New Voting Intention🚨
    Labour lead by 27 points in our latest poll.
    Con 19% (-2)
    Lab 46% (-)
    Lib Dem 10% (+1)
    Reform 16% (+4)
    SNP 2% (-2)
    Green 5% (-)
    Other 1% (-1)
    Fieldwork: 14th - 17th June 2024
    Sample: 1,383 GB adults
    (Changes from 6th - 8th June 2024)

    I'm just so glad Rishi called an early election to wrongfoot Reform.
    The best call since the Earl of Cardigan at Sevastapol*.

    *or whomever is best placed to be blamed.
    I can only conclude that Labour are absolutely fucking brilliant at placing plants ready to play the long game.
    I've heard three theories from reliable sources on why Rishi went for July, I'll only discuss two of them.

    1) He has had enough of the criticism and realised if he went in July or November the result would be largely the same

    2) He was worried about an Oct/Nov election getting entangled with the US election. We all know some Tories will back Trump, which is a vote loser, then you've got Trump commentating on the election which could be messy.
    I not only predicted 4th July, so it couldn’t come as a complete shock to PBers, but I told you all the reasoning as to why in the weeks and months before they even started reasoning it for themselves.

    Waiting for interest rate cut had run out of road, this meant mortgage and re-mortgage pain all up to autumn election. July and summer would bring not only surge to a record of Channel crossings, but none of the long promised covid flights as it got bogged down in courts. A Covid report, to put the “after that how can we trust you ever again?” on voters lips in time for autumn campaign. Autumn also brings higher energy prices and food prices, and inflation creeping back up. It could also mean a party conference, and a fiscal event for which there was no money left for rabbits from the pre election hat, at least not in these days of the OBR, the so called headroom Hunt had invented, he had already maxxed out.

    They are not bright this Tory top team - Sunak’s switch to now fighting on individual freedom and aspiration for working families in his hustings speeches this week, wouldn’t have happened if I hadn’t told him to do that on PB. Tory’s are making this campaign up as they go along, from reading PB and cribbing from my posts in particular.
    You also predicted May.

    Now people like me tipped July at 20s.

    Can you boast of such a tip?
    You put money on July at 20's?

    Your name will go on ze list!
    I am already on many lists.

    I know when a revolution comes, be it a far right one or a hard left one, I will be one of the first people lined up against a wall.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,219
    edited June 17

    Scott_xP said:
    An entirely unhelpful and counterproductive comment by Gauke that simply fires the starting pistol in an interfratricidal war.

    The Party must be better than this.
    It's investing a huge amount too much importance in the notice anyone takes of Gauke to imagine him firing the starting pistol on anything. He's a bitter old ex-Tory irritant, nothing more.
    Not sure why you're so hostile to Gauke - you called him repulsive earlier. Obviously his politics are different from yours - he's an old-school one-nation Tory, but he's still a Tory. It's to their credit that Conservative Home give him a platform every month or so, although his articles attract comments much like yours. But he's a pretty harmless chap undeserving of such vitriol, as far as I can see.
    A newly elected young MP, eagerly taking up a place on the benches and pointing to the benches opposite, said to his leader, “So that’s the enemy”.
    His leader replied, “No son, that’s the opposition”,
    and then pointed to the benches behind and said, “That is the enemy”.

    Until the Conservatives can find an approach that most people to the right of Labour are content to endorse, they're stuffed. That is unlikely to be Gaukeism, but it won't be Trussism or Faragism either.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,354
    biggles said:

    Scott_xP said:
    An entirely unhelpful and counterproductive comment by Gauke that simply fires the starting pistol in an interfratricidal war.

    The Party must be better than this.
    It's investing a huge amount too much importance in the notice anyone takes of Gauke to imagine him firing the starting pistol on anything. He's a bitter old ex-Tory irritant, nothing more.
    Not sure why you're so hostile to Gauke - you called him repulsive earlier. Obviously his politics are different from yours - he's an old-school one-nation Tory, but he's still a Tory. It's to their credit that Conservative Home give him a platform every month or so, although his articles attract comments much like yours. But he's a pretty harmless chap undeserving of such vitriol, as far as I can see.
    See, what I take issue with is people calling Gauke (or Cameron/Osborne) “one nation”. When you look at what they they did to the benefits system, and the line they took on its recipients, I would describe them as pretty economically dry Tories. We’ve ended up recasting anyone who voted against Brexit as one nation. See also Ken Clarke - he’s a keep of the Thatcherite flame. I would describe a one nation Tory as more of a 1950s paternalist that’s extinct now. The people who were pushed out as “wet”. My kind of Tory.
    There is a weird view that pro-Brexit = ultra right wing. Pro-EU, = Centrist.
This discussion has been closed.