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The War at Home: Labour Defences (Part Two) – politicalbetting.com
The War at Home: Labour Defences (Part Two) – politicalbetting.com
There are eight seats which Labour won in 2019 adjusted for the new boundaries, but where you can get real odds (1/10 or longer) on them winning this time. The first four were covered earlier. The final four are below.
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The Tories with their weird try to park their tank on Reform lawn early on, only then to launch a manifesto that was the biggest nothingness, keep calm and carry on doing the same thing, really are left in no-man's land.
Angela Rayner is a threat to European security
I know that many people are tempted to cast a protest vote. But this is not a council by-election. We cannot take risks with defence policy
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/17/angela-rayner-is-a-threat-to-european-security/
Again.
Looney Tunes were at least funny.
It's extremely hard to see Labour losing any seats, never mind many.
The one from this list and the last post (thanks Pip) that I did wonder about was Canterbury. The students will be away. Those that stay may be tempted to the Greens. Wouldn't take much of the rest of her vote peeling away to make it vulnerable.
You and @williamglenn are specialists of the art.
The simple truth remains: No Overall Majority (NOM) is trading at 26 – twenty six! – on Betfair Exchange. It has lengthened since last week. If you think NOM is value, presumably you are all-in on that free money?
I'm used to the Conservatives using the flag in this way, but have Labour used it before? If so, I can't remember seeing it.
Just need the Express to say she'll bring Diana back next...
Whether it would be as widespread as the impact of pit closures is a rather different question.
And I do think there’s an interesting question about how accurate anyone’s models can be if Reform gets to 20%+.
Islington North Update
Rather more activity on the ground this week, with the Corbyn campaign in particular taking off after a slow start.
They held a number of mini-rallies over the weekend - I walked past one at Archway on Saturday afternoon, where there were maybe 20-25 people listening to him speak, with as many again milling around in the vicinity. Apparently there had been heavier turnout in the morning - Socialist Worker reckons there were "around 400", though I take that with a pinch of salt. By contrast, Labour had set up closer to Finsbury Park with a group of around 15 people with placards and leaflets, but no speeches and not much interest from passers by.
Corbyn's been pushing heavily on the theme of NHS privatisation - attacking Labour's Nargund, who runs a chain of fertility clinics. Labour are running a more positive campaign, based solely on national politics and not mentioning Corbyn at all. Both have dedicated websites and active social media. Local media have long-standing relationships with Corbyn and have attacked Nargund for not making much of an effort to engage with them.
I've now been canvassed by both camps. I asked both what they thought was the most important local issue at the election, and both provided depressingly NIMBYish answers about (different) nearby planning disputes... in retrospect, I should have asked something about national politics! Meanwhile, I've had two leaflet drops from Labour, and one from Corbyn. Labour are apparently moving into "get out the postal vote" mode for the next week, whilst Corbyn is still running normal canvassing sessions.
It looks like we'll soon be getting a constituency poll after a successful fundraiser - I'm not sure if it'll shed much light as constituency polling is notoriously unreliable and the important demographic factors here (religion, housing tenure, and length of time living in the constituency) aren't ones that are ordinarily controlled for by the pollsters.
In summary, Corbyn's campaign experience is beginning to show. However, it's not (yet!) at a by-election level and with postal votes now going out it may be that the increase in activity has come too late. At the Corbyn rally, I overheard two women very confidently telling a third that Corbyn wasn't standing in this election, and that he had been replaced by Keir Starmer - so perhaps no amount of campaigning would be enough for him to win.
Corbyn Street
Labour: 3 window posters (same number as last week, but one house gained and one lost)
Corbyn: 2 window posters (up one from last week)
Lib Dem: 0 (but one window poster and one garden stake in adjacent streets - not a "winning here" because not even the most optimistic LD would claim that!)
(previous update here: https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4813319/#Comment_4813319 )
Good luck identifying the party in each position in those circumstances
It isn't putting in my subtle puns and pop culture references but choosing pictures for thread headers.
Lab 44
Con 21
Ref 10
The declining Labour share however needs to stall or they will indeed be heading towards mid 30s, they are currently on track for 39/40
So thanks to both.
(That would mean magistrates could no longer imprison anyone, of course.)
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/consumer-affairs/20-year-old-earns-25k-betting-wins-cover-weekly-spend/
Checks article, the guy is placing £2 bets ..
Didcot and Wantage it has as Lib Dem
https://www.getvoting.org/constituency/E14001197
Remarkable in that the fields all used to vote Tory.
Still works...
How, then, can they call on the one they have not believed in? And how can they believe in the one of whom they have not heard? And how can they hear without someone preaching to them? 15 And how can anyone preach unless they are sent? As it is written: “How beautiful are the feet of those who bring good news!”
It remains to be seen.
The Tories are also declining towards a 20% result.
Anti politics is on the menu
The value in these is less obvious than in part 1 I think, but food for thought.
/ JLP poll, 14th-16th June
*Reform UK at record high, Tories at record low; Labour lead at 17 points*
Change on last week in brackets
LAB: 40% (-1)
CON: 23% (-1)
REF: 18% (+3)
LDEM: 9% (-2)
GRN: 5% (-)
Labour could get anything from 35% to 43% in my view.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.223276482
"Sunak has committed £20bn to carbon capture"
Nothing is committed yet. Contracts not due to be signed until September.
I suspect Labour will want to take a good hard look before taking the plunge.
You think <36% is a bad value bet at 20/1?
It's on the menu but so are Ham, egg and chips or a Burger.
I'm not sure suggesting Reform are attracting a disillusioned with politics crowd is particularly controversial
No –– I think that's value. But my point is that if you are betting you should do so on your own analysis rather than on a set of fabricated numbers from another PBer that he himself does not bet upon!
I can easily see Labour hitting 42% as the Tory vote finds something more interesting to do on July 4th
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13526359/TikTok-election-Labour-Cilla-Black-Reform.html
The Daily Mail has been counting TikTok views so we don't have to. Unlike on Facebook and TwiX, these are not paid adverts.
Excl: A Reform candidate described Adolf Hitler as “brilliant” and “able to inspire people to action” as part of a pseudoscientific theory that promotes 16 personality types.
https://x.com/Geri_E_L_Scott/status/1802698595423977728
I'm also somewhat concerned that Galloway is going to hold his seat. As much as I like Starmer's Labour getting a kick in the teeth, I'd prefer that wasn't to the benefit of Galloway.
But everybody is bored of GE now. The footy is on, media clearly have nothing or not interesting in deploying any real hit pieces as yesterday would have been when they got released. I think we just stagger to election day with little changing the narrative for any party.
I learned from bitter experience as a Lib Dem that what I believe about many things isn't what the majority of Brits believe. I'm not sure that attitude has percolated into the other parties yet though.
Each party has a floor and a ceiling with its current policy platform. We just don't know what they are. Take Reform: we can agree their floor is virtually zero but their ceiling? It could be mid teens. It could be 25%. Could it be even higher? Analyses of UK voter belief systems suggests their ceiling is fairly low. The Lib Dem long term ceiling seems to be about 20% give or take. The floor around 5-6%. Tory: up to 50, as low as what? 25% I reckon. Labour similar.
That leads me into my own - doubtless biased - conclusions. That for example something like 42:25:15:10 for Lab:Con:Ref:LD is possible, but say 38:20:25:10 probably isn't. And on the left of centre side 45:25:10:15 might conceivably happen but 48:22:10:15 couldn't.
The 2019 Tory voters are starting to return home, and not just because they’ve been told what to do by their wife.
Its budget stuff is just delusional drivel. Worse, if possible, than the others and much more populist.
There are one or two noteworthy nods to the conspiracy brigade:
A disparaging mention of the World Economic Forum - a key conspiracy trope..
Also a call for Public Enquiry into vaccine deaths - another trope.
Scrap Net Zero: Code for 'Climate hoax'. Another conspiracy trope.
Notable silences: Russia, China, Putin, Ukraine, Israel (all these are subject to correction. Vita brevis, manifesto longa).
But not silent on Sharia law.
Notable (and surprising) long grass: Social care.
It will abolish TV licence, but not abolish BBC. Silence on how it is funded.
The Reform con-trick, from Farage's mouth.
Challenged on lack of any plan for delivery of zero migration or zero NHS waiting lists: "It's a promise of what we're going to campaign for. We're not going to be in gov't."
So, promising stuff he knows is nonsense. Just like #Brexit.
The one that really stands out there is Islington North: I suspect that (a) most voters in the constituency were actually Labour voters rather than Corbyn voters, and (b) you may well see the 2019 LD vote go for the Labour over Corbyn.
13/8 odds look very generous.
On @Casino_Royale's position that the Labour lead is soft:
Labour's lead has eroded slightly - but I think there is a clear environment where even many Tory voters want to punish the party. For many people that just means not voting or voting Labour.
I know betting wise this isn't going to be very interesting, but I am interested to see if Labour gets a bigger % than 2017, and a bigger total number of votes. It's hilarious and stupid that we have a system where the current Labour party may get a Baathist majority on similar vote shares / total votes than 2017.
And the other thing is I think this is soft support for Labour's governing - not winning. I think the support to kill the Tory party is strong. The desire to see Starmerism, not so much.
https://taxpolicy.org.uk/2024/06/17/reform_uk_manifesto_2024
Everyone has said something stupid in their lives. All posters on here who have ever made an interesting contribution has said something a bit dodgy that could be spun out of context, particularly given how the zeitgeist has changed over the last 20 years.