On a lighter note have any PBers been to the Black Sea coast of Turkey?
The gazette have kindly told me I’ve got a rare Carte Blanche - I can go anywhere I’ve not been before - within Europe or very close - and write about it and have a nice freebie. Before my larger commitments kick in
Thing is I’ve been nearly everywhere in Europe
And I want sun yet I don’t want somewhere overrun with kids and tourists. Also not too pricey…
That leaves not much - here’s my list
Bulgaria esp the mountains and nearby Thrace Inland northern Portugal The Vosges (maybe too pricey and cold) Abbruzzo Black Sea coast of Turkey Possibly Albania
Thoughts? Anyone been to these places?
I hear Sochi is very nice this time of year ;-)
All joking aside, can they not send you to Russia? It would have a lot of significance - be more of a foreign correspondent sort of piece than 'Discovering hidden Albania, the next up and coming tourist spot after Haiti'. Are UK subjects allowed to go?
Aside from the Euros and cricket, the one story dominating my non politics WhatsApp groups is Surrey police and that cow.
The cow's really got my goat. Lots of enthusiastic meat eaters very upset that police prioritised human life over a dumb animal. They sorted it out relatively quickly and it's fine (until it gets tased and dissected for dinner in a few months).
It was a heifer, may be destined for life as a dairy cow
But how can this go on for hours? If as local police you don't know who the beast is likely to belong to, you are not doing your job, but anyway you can zoom in on its eartag and ask DEFRA whose it is and get the farmer to sort it.
Aside from the Euros and cricket, the one story dominating my non politics WhatsApp groups is Surrey police and that cow.
The cow's really got my goat. Lots of enthusiastic meat eaters very upset that police prioritised human life over a dumb animal. They sorted it out relatively quickly and it's fine (until it gets tased and dissected for dinner in a few months).
It was a heifer, may be destined for life as a dairy cow
But how can this go on for hours? If as local police you don't know who the beast is likely to belong to, you are not doing your job, but anyway you can zoom in on its eartag and ask DEFRA whose it is and get the farmer to sort it.
Are there not computer games where you can run over cows? They were probably keen gamers and thought they wouldn't get another chance.
At home I usually prefer wine (or whisky) but football always feels like I should have beer. I’m on the fence now, but either way you have made me thirsty!
Aside from the Euros and cricket, the one story dominating my non politics WhatsApp groups is Surrey police and that cow.
Came up at lunch with the family. No mention of the election all day.
GE campaign is over, done, finished. Even the media can't muster the energy for any real hit piece in the Sundays.
So, wither turnout?
Its really strange vibe all round. Its no 1997, it seems more get on with it and then we can all go on our holibobs.
It's 2001 all over.
We all knew what the resut would be for ages.
Highlight of the campaign was when two Jags became two jabs.
Emotionally it's very different. There's a sternness to this election, a widespread desire to hand out an electoral beating. 2001 wasn't about pulling the wings off the Tory party, it was merely about reelecting a Labour party that had done adequately well.
Aside from the Euros and cricket, the one story dominating my non politics WhatsApp groups is Surrey police and that cow.
Came up at lunch with the family. No mention of the election all day.
GE campaign is over, done, finished. Even the media can't muster the energy for any real hit piece in the Sundays.
So, wither turnout?
Its really strange vibe all round. Its no 1997, it seems more get on with it and then we can all go on our holibobs.
It's 2001 all over.
We all knew what the resut would be for ages.
Highlight of the campaign was when two Jags became two jabs.
Nah, 2028/9 will be 2001 redux with a Labour party so far ahead that its not really a competition, the voting falls, the majority falls and we settle down to another 5 years of Labour.
This will go on until the centre right reunites, just as Thatcher dominated when the SDP split the centre left.
I’m not just limiting myself to taking the knee before having a wank to remember George Floyd, either
Every time I go to purchase groceries I’m going to stand on one leg and wiggle my left elbow around, in some weird way, slightly bodging other shoppers, who will move away nervously, so that we don’t forget the Armenians. Yes, if I do it alone, it will look mad and foolish, and frankly pointless, but if everyone in Britain does this we may retrieve the dire situation in Nagorno-Karabagh
After that I’m going to pretend to be deaf for three hours, on Thursdays, for Sudan
At home I usually prefer wine (or whisky) but football always feels like I should have beer. I’m on the fence now, but either way you have made me thirsty!
Agree with beers for sport accompaniment. I am getting slightly concerned I’m going to run out of beers and end up on wine by the time of the England game starting. I accidentally started too early. Bloody 8pm kick offs.
Aside from the Euros and cricket, the one story dominating my non politics WhatsApp groups is Surrey police and that cow.
The cow's really got my goat. Lots of enthusiastic meat eaters very upset that police prioritised human life over a dumb animal. They sorted it out relatively quickly and it's fine (until it gets tased and dissected for dinner in a few months).
It was a heifer, may be destined for life as a dairy cow
But how can this go on for hours? If as local police you don't know who the beast is likely to belong to, you are not doing your job, but anyway you can zoom in on its eartag and ask DEFRA whose it is and get the farmer to sort it.
Are there not computer games where you can run over cows? They were probably keen gamers and thought they wouldn't get another chance.
Or would attain superstardom playing themselves in the movie. After that dreadful reindeer thing anything is possible.
I’m not just limiting myself to taking the knee before having a wank to remember George Floyd, either
Every time I go to purchase groceries I’m going to stand on one leg and wiggle my left elbow around, in some weird way, slightly bodging other shoppers, who will move away nervously, so that we don’t forget the Armenians. Yes, if I do it alone, it will look mad and foolish, and frankly pointless, but if everyone in Britain does this we may retrieve the dire situation in Nagorno-Karabagh
After that I’m going to pretend to be deaf for three hours, on Thursdays, for Sudan
I think you must have spent too much time watching reruns of this:
A vote for Labour is a vote for your Council Tax bill going up.
Are you fucking kidding???? Do you know how much my council tax has gone up under the Tories at a local and national level?!??!!! Have you any idea how shit the public services we get in Kent in return? Yes, council tax will go up under Labour, but it has gone up and will go up under the Tories too. At least Labour are not denying it.
And I’m not cheering more council tax. I’m saying it is a regrettable necessity given many years of utter Tory mismanagement and waste.
I think the issue is the extension of the number of bands which was the flaw in the original implementation and it is a fact that million pound homes just 500 yards from us are only paying one band higher
Wales Labour has hammered Council tax at 5% for years and more recently at plus 10.1% and 9.77% this year
Council tax should be payments for services not a matter of income redistribution. That should be a matter for national policy
It is devolved in Wales
I know
It’s not the business of local councils to be in the game of income redistribution.
So if your kid is a remedial they get a free taxi to school every day?
Such a system could never be exploited
As well as a taxi
Universal Credit Disabled child element £1,873pa.
Which exempts you from the two child limit so if 3 or more kids in family
Extra Universal Child Element £3,455pa.
So badly behaved little Johnny getting an ADHD diagnosis is worth £5k a year tax free.
When the teacher calls you in about little johnnys bad behaviour they may well suggest getting help that leads to a diagnosis. The school getting £6k a year extra government funding for little Johnny if diagnosed of course dosen't enter into teachers head.
I think you greatly exaggerate the ease of getting a "statement", it usually takes years and multiple appeals.
It might be much better to tackle the problem upstream and identify and intervene with these children much earlier.
DOI: I have a nephew with ADHD amongst other diagnoses. It's not an easy condition for a family to live with.
Yes, that's my long experience, too. MisterBedford is an interesting new addition to the comments section.
Aside from the Euros and cricket, the one story dominating my non politics WhatsApp groups is Surrey police and that cow.
Came up at lunch with the family. No mention of the election all day.
GE campaign is over, done, finished. Even the media can't muster the energy for any real hit piece in the Sundays.
So, wither turnout?
Its really strange vibe all round. Its no 1997, it seems more get on with it and then we can all go on our holibobs.
It's 2001 all over.
We all knew what the resut would be for ages.
Highlight of the campaign was when two Jags became two jabs.
Just looked up the raw vote counts from 2001.
Lab 10.7 million, Con 8.4 million.
Given that Corbyn got 10.3 million last time, Starmer ought to be able to beat Blair's 2001 score. And Rishi would be doing well to do "as well" as Hague.
(Once more with feeling: there's no point enticing lots of people to vote for you if you also motivate lots of people to vote against you.)
I am impressed that you posted that before William Glenn did.
Yes, clearly Trump is serious about pushing for a swift Ukrainian victory. If he said the opposite it would create complacency among Ukraine's European allies and give Russia an opportunity.
Trump is pushing for a swift Ukranian victory? What brings you to that interpretation?
What is the effect of his words if not to push European countries to pull their finger out and reduce dependence on the US?
An alternative theory suggests Trump is a humongous turd who will do his best to see Ukraine defeated. This is to return the favour to his friend Vladimir for his help in subverting the American political system to Trump's personal benefit.
You mean a conspiracy theory?
A conspiracy theory that a deliberate policy to starve Ukraine of the means to avoid defeat could be a deliberate policy to ensure defeat?
Yeah. I might buy into that.
How do you reconcile Trump's opposition to Germany filling Russia's coffers and underspending on defence with the view that he is determined to help Russian expansionism?
Your view depends on seeing the US as the only real actor in this with European countries reduced to being merely pawns. In a strange way you see eye-to-eye with Putin.
How do you reconcile his promise to cut support to Ukraine as his support for Ukraine?
He isn't running to be dictactor of the West and isn't proposing to do anything to prevent Ukraine acting to defend itself.
(This is in contrast to the Biden White House which has imposed conditions on Ukraine and made it fight with one hand tied behind its back as well as limiting what US allies can do to help.)
I had expected at least some engagement with the substantive content that Trump wants to cut aid, but if it is just about being an edgy right-wing internet provocateur, that's boring.
What did I say that's untrue?
The case against Trump is mainly psychological: he doesn't seem to care about which state the Donbas is part of, therefore he's a bad man, therefore everything he does has malign intent.
It's a way of thinking that is detached from the material world. Biden has acted as a drag on the Western world's response all along, placing limits on what military aid is given and how it can be used and using NATO unity as an excuse for not doing more. He also failed to deter Putin in the first place after holding a summit meeting with him before the invasion.
All of this is excused because Biden is deemed to be on the right side. He doesn't want Putin to win, so it doesn't seem to matter what effect his actions have on the outcome.
"...he doesn't seem to care about which state the Donbas is part of,"
There is much to be said about your post, little of which reflects well on you. But I thought I would concentrate on this.
If you look at what Putin has said he wants - including the maximalist surrender-of-Ukraine speech he made the other day, he does not just want the Donbass. He wants much more. Add in the way he is interfering in countries throughout Europe, including the Moldovan elections, and it is obvious you, as much as Trump, have malign intent.
What a disingenuous reply. My comment referred to what Trump wants and you responded by referring to what Putin wants.
They had Mike Pompeo on Ukrianecast, who is likely to be the sort of Republican in the running to be Trump’s secretary of state or defense (sic) secretary. He was quite the hawk.
I’m not sure we won’t find Trump quite hawkish too, as we get closer to election day. In fact my worry with him isn’t that he’s a devious Russian agent, it’s that his opinions are unpredictable and swing wildly, and we could end up fighting WWIII because Putin insulted his hair.
I’m not just limiting myself to taking the knee before having a wank to remember George Floyd, either
Every time I go to purchase groceries I’m going to stand on one leg and wiggle my left elbow around, in some weird way, slightly bodging other shoppers, who will move away nervously, so that we don’t forget the Armenians. Yes, if I do it alone, it will look mad and foolish, and frankly pointless, but if everyone in Britain does this we may retrieve the dire situation in Nagorno-Karabagh
After that I’m going to pretend to be deaf for three hours, on Thursdays, for Sudan
At home I usually prefer wine (or whisky) but football always feels like I should have beer. I’m on the fence now, but either way you have made me thirsty!
Agree with beers for sport accompaniment. I am getting slightly concerned I’m going to run out of beers and end up on wine by the time of the England game starting. I accidentally started too early. Bloody 8pm kick offs.
Nip to the corner shop now before kick off, or you’ll be on the weird green liquor you once bought on holiday by half time.
I am impressed that you posted that before William Glenn did.
Yes, clearly Trump is serious about pushing for a swift Ukrainian victory. If he said the opposite it would create complacency among Ukraine's European allies and give Russia an opportunity.
Trump is pushing for a swift Ukranian victory? What brings you to that interpretation?
What is the effect of his words if not to push European countries to pull their finger out and reduce dependence on the US?
An alternative theory suggests Trump is a humongous turd who will do his best to see Ukraine defeated. This is to return the favour to his friend Vladimir for his help in subverting the American political system to Trump's personal benefit.
You mean a conspiracy theory?
A conspiracy theory that a deliberate policy to starve Ukraine of the means to avoid defeat could be a deliberate policy to ensure defeat?
Yeah. I might buy into that.
How do you reconcile Trump's opposition to Germany filling Russia's coffers and underspending on defence with the view that he is determined to help Russian expansionism?
Your view depends on seeing the US as the only real actor in this with European countries reduced to being merely pawns. In a strange way you see eye-to-eye with Putin.
How do you reconcile his promise to cut support to Ukraine as his support for Ukraine?
He isn't running to be dictactor of the West and isn't proposing to do anything to prevent Ukraine acting to defend itself.
(This is in contrast to the Biden White House which has imposed conditions on Ukraine and made it fight with one hand tied behind its back as well as limiting what US allies can do to help.)
I had expected at least some engagement with the substantive content that Trump wants to cut aid, but if it is just about being an edgy right-wing internet provocateur, that's boring.
What did I say that's untrue?
The case against Trump is mainly psychological: he doesn't seem to care about which state the Donbas is part of, therefore he's a bad man, therefore everything he does has malign intent.
It's a way of thinking that is detached from the material world. Biden has acted as a drag on the Western world's response all along, placing limits on what military aid is given and how it can be used and using NATO unity as an excuse for not doing more. He also failed to deter Putin in the first place after holding a summit meeting with him before the invasion.
All of this is excused because Biden is deemed to be on the right side. He doesn't want Putin to win, so it doesn't seem to matter what effect his actions have on the outcome.
"...he doesn't seem to care about which state the Donbas is part of,"
There is much to be said about your post, little of which reflects well on you. But I thought I would concentrate on this.
If you look at what Putin has said he wants - including the maximalist surrender-of-Ukraine speech he made the other day, he does not just want the Donbass. He wants much more. Add in the way he is interfering in countries throughout Europe, including the Moldovan elections, and it is obvious you, as much as Trump, have malign intent.
What a disingenuous reply. My comment referred to what Trump wants and you responded by referring to what Putin wants.
They had Mike Pompeo on Ukrianecast, who is likely to be the sort of Republican in the running to be Trump’s secretary of state or defense (sic) secretary. He was quite the hawk.
I’m not sure we won’t find Trump quite hawkish too, as we get closer to election day. In fact my worry with him isn’t that he’s a devious Russian agent, it’s that his opinions are unpredictable and swing wildly, and we could end up fighting WWIII because Putin insulted his hair.
Putin knows not to insult a thin-skinned ally. If Trump started a war over his ridiculous hair it would be against Denmark or Bhutan or something.
Aside from the Euros and cricket, the one story dominating my non politics WhatsApp groups is Surrey police and that cow.
Came up at lunch with the family. No mention of the election all day.
GE campaign is over, done, finished. Even the media can't muster the energy for any real hit piece in the Sundays.
So, wither turnout?
Its really strange vibe all round. Its no 1997, it seems more get on with it and then we can all go on our holibobs.
It's 2001 all over.
We all knew what the resut would be for ages.
Highlight of the campaign was when two Jags became two jabs.
Just looked up the raw vote counts from 2001.
Lab 10.7 million, Con 8.4 million.
Given that Corbyn got 10.3 million last time, Starmer ought to be able to beat Blair's 2001 score. And Rishi would be doing well to do "as well" as Hague.
(Once more with feeling: there's no point enticing lots of people to vote for you if you also motivate lots of people to vote against you.)
Remember there’s probably 3-5m more potential voters in circulation now, which skews the equivalence.
Although I am very much in the camp that AI isn't going to be all jobs in every sector in 2-3 years, not to be even having a discussion about how it will effect education and work is quite crazy. We know productivity is piss poor, we should be looking at what it can do for many aspects of the state (this is where Big Dom was actually onto something).
The GE is quite weird. Labour nor Tories really have any big new ideas, its just rehashing old policies with new names as if the world hasn't changed at all since 1997. Other big issues like knife crime, shop lifting, phone snatching, the most I have heard is some nonsense from Labour about well we will make Apple make it harder to reactivate them (but they already all go to China where this is irrelevant).
I’ve talked with people in the film/TV graphics business about AI. Because it has trouble with context, it is, once again useful as an autocomplete tool for small pieces of the work. Bit like how the old masters had a horde of assistants who filled in backgrounds for them.
Same in my industry - software development. It’s being used as a somewhat improved code completion tool. Once you beyond doing some simple functions it rapidly becomes a tool for generating code that does the wrong thing.
For soft stuff it is interesting - ask it what topics are missing in an essay, for example.
There will probably be an arms race to generate vast piles of documents, in certain jobs - and to read them and condense them on the other end.
No doubt you'll approve, and maybe have a go yourself, but it's a cowardly and weak way of engaging in political debate, that commands zero respect from me.
Here's the rub: your respect isn't actually worth anything.
If my respect isn't worth anything, then it's a perfect match for your opinion.
Been at Dads making a fuss of him for Father's day, struck by the total lack of electoral paraphernalia anywhere in either of the constituencies travelled through hence and back. I think turnout is going to be absolutely shocking. I'm having a nibble at under 60%. I also think turnout filters on polling are way off as a result, but I'm not sure what effect that would have.
So if your kid is a remedial they get a free taxi to school every day?
Such a system could never be exploited
As well as a taxi
Universal Credit Disabled child element £1,873pa.
Which exempts you from the two child limit so if 3 or more kids in family
Extra Universal Child Element £3,455pa.
So badly behaved little Johnny getting an ADHD diagnosis is worth £5k a year tax free.
When the teacher calls you in about little johnnys bad behaviour they may well suggest getting help that leads to a diagnosis. The school getting £6k a year extra government funding for little Johnny if diagnosed of course dosen't enter into teachers head.
I think you greatly exaggerate the ease of getting a "statement", it usually takes years and multiple appeals.
It might be much better to tackle the problem upstream and identify and intervene with these children much earlier.
DOI: I have a nephew with ADHD amongst other diagnoses. It's not an easy condition for a family to live with.
Yes, that's my long experience, too. MisterBedford is an interesting new addition to the comments section.
It’s a trope from the MAGA/Putinist worldview that ADHD (and other child mental health issues) are fake and a woke plot. All the children really need is the cane. Etc.
Although I am very much in the camp that AI isn't going to be all jobs in every sector in 2-3 years, not to be even having a discussion about how it will effect education and work is quite crazy. We know productivity is piss poor, we should be looking at what it can do for many aspects of the state (this is where Big Dom was actually onto something).
The GE is quite weird. Labour nor Tories really have any big new ideas, its just rehashing old policies with new names as if the world hasn't changed at all since 1997. Other big issues like knife crime, shop lifting, phone snatching, the most I have heard is some nonsense from Labour about well we will make Apple make it harder to reactivate them (but they already all go to China where this is irrelevant).
I’ve talked with people in the film/TV graphics business about AI. Because it has trouble with context, it is, once again useful as an autocomplete tool for small pieces of the work. Bit like how the old masters had a horde of assistants who filled in backgrounds for them.
Same in my industry - software development. It’s being used as a somewhat improved code completion tool. Once you beyond doing some simple functions it rapidly becomes a tool for generating code that does the wrong thing.
For soft stuff it is interesting - ask it what topics are missing in an essay, for example.
There will probably be an arms race to generate vast piles of documents, in certain jobs - and to read them and condense them on the other end.
Three points:
*) Where accuracy matters, AI will be problematic. *) Where privacy matters, AI will be problematic. (though that horse has already bolted...) *) Many documents are WORN (Write Once, Read Never). They never get to the read-and-condense stage.
At home I usually prefer wine (or whisky) but football always feels like I should have beer. I’m on the fence now, but either way you have made me thirsty!
Cask ale in the pub. Wine at home. A simple tried and tested formula.
Although I am very much in the camp that AI isn't going to be all jobs in every sector in 2-3 years, not to be even having a discussion about how it will effect education and work is quite crazy. We know productivity is piss poor, we should be looking at what it can do for many aspects of the state (this is where Big Dom was actually onto something).
The GE is quite weird. Labour nor Tories really have any big new ideas, its just rehashing old policies with new names as if the world hasn't changed at all since 1997. Other big issues like knife crime, shop lifting, phone snatching, the most I have heard is some nonsense from Labour about well we will make Apple make it harder to reactivate them (but they already all go to China where this is irrelevant).
I’ve talked with people in the film/TV graphics business about AI. Because it has trouble with context, it is, once again useful as an autocomplete tool for small pieces of the work. Bit like how the old masters had a horde of assistants who filled in backgrounds for them.
Same in my industry - software development. It’s being used as a somewhat improved code completion tool. Once you beyond doing some simple functions it rapidly becomes a tool for generating code that does the wrong thing.
For soft stuff it is interesting - ask it what topics are missing in an essay, for example.
There will probably be an arms race to generate vast piles of documents, in certain jobs - and to read them and condense them on the other end.
Three points:
*) Where accuracy matters, AI will be problematic. *) Where privacy matters, AI will be problematic. (though that horse has already bolted...) *) Many documents are WORN (Write Once, Read Never). They never get to the read-and-condense stage.
1) yup 2) yup 3) the idea is that AI reading will try and help with the “bury the truth in the bullshit heap” tactic. The bullshit heaps will just expand in size to match.
@OliverKay For any England or Serbia fans who are still in the middle of Gelsenkirchen (or worse still not there yet), I’d recommend you set off on foot if you can.
It’s about three miles but the public transport situation is a total mess #ENGSER
I am impressed that you posted that before William Glenn did.
Yes, clearly Trump is serious about pushing for a swift Ukrainian victory. If he said the opposite it would create complacency among Ukraine's European allies and give Russia an opportunity.
Trump is pushing for a swift Ukranian victory? What brings you to that interpretation?
What is the effect of his words if not to push European countries to pull their finger out and reduce dependence on the US?
An alternative theory suggests Trump is a humongous turd who will do his best to see Ukraine defeated. This is to return the favour to his friend Vladimir for his help in subverting the American political system to Trump's personal benefit.
You mean a conspiracy theory?
A conspiracy theory that a deliberate policy to starve Ukraine of the means to avoid defeat could be a deliberate policy to ensure defeat?
Yeah. I might buy into that.
How do you reconcile Trump's opposition to Germany filling Russia's coffers and underspending on defence with the view that he is determined to help Russian expansionism?
Your view depends on seeing the US as the only real actor in this with European countries reduced to being merely pawns. In a strange way you see eye-to-eye with Putin.
How do you reconcile his promise to cut support to Ukraine as his support for Ukraine?
He isn't running to be dictactor of the West and isn't proposing to do anything to prevent Ukraine acting to defend itself.
(This is in contrast to the Biden White House which has imposed conditions on Ukraine and made it fight with one hand tied behind its back as well as limiting what US allies can do to help.)
I had expected at least some engagement with the substantive content that Trump wants to cut aid, but if it is just about being an edgy right-wing internet provocateur, that's boring.
What did I say that's untrue?
The case against Trump is mainly psychological: he doesn't seem to care about which state the Donbas is part of, therefore he's a bad man, therefore everything he does has malign intent.
It's a way of thinking that is detached from the material world. Biden has acted as a drag on the Western world's response all along, placing limits on what military aid is given and how it can be used and using NATO unity as an excuse for not doing more. He also failed to deter Putin in the first place after holding a summit meeting with him before the invasion.
All of this is excused because Biden is deemed to be on the right side. He doesn't want Putin to win, so it doesn't seem to matter what effect his actions have on the outcome.
"...he doesn't seem to care about which state the Donbas is part of,"
There is much to be said about your post, little of which reflects well on you. But I thought I would concentrate on this.
If you look at what Putin has said he wants - including the maximalist surrender-of-Ukraine speech he made the other day, he does not just want the Donbass. He wants much more. Add in the way he is interfering in countries throughout Europe, including the Moldovan elections, and it is obvious you, as much as Trump, have malign intent.
What a disingenuous reply. My comment referred to what Trump wants and you responded by referring to what Putin wants.
I suggest you read the line I quoted. If you think it is just about Donbass, then you're an idiot Or worse.
To be clear; Trump doesn't care about Donbass. Or any other part of Ukraine. Or any other part of Europe. Or, in my view, about America. Trump only cares about Trump. And arse-lickers still want to support the guy.
So if your kid is a remedial they get a free taxi to school every day?
Such a system could never be exploited
As well as a taxi
Universal Credit Disabled child element £1,873pa.
Which exempts you from the two child limit so if 3 or more kids in family
Extra Universal Child Element £3,455pa.
So badly behaved little Johnny getting an ADHD diagnosis is worth £5k a year tax free.
When the teacher calls you in about little johnnys bad behaviour they may well suggest getting help that leads to a diagnosis. The school getting £6k a year extra government funding for little Johnny if diagnosed of course dosen't enter into teachers head.
I think you greatly exaggerate the ease of getting a "statement", it usually takes years and multiple appeals.
It might be much better to tackle the problem upstream and identify and intervene with these children much earlier.
DOI: I have a nephew with ADHD amongst other diagnoses. It's not an easy condition for a family to live with.
Yes, that's my long experience, too. MisterBedford is an interesting new addition to the comments section.
It’s a trope from the MAGA/Putinist worldview that ADHD (and other child mental health issues) are fake and a woke plot. All the children really need is the cane. Etc.
In my experience the dodgy end is when Tarquin and Esmerelda’s parents pay for a private prescription to say what they want to they can pop them on pills, and a GP gives in and agrees. The rich minority are the ones abusing it.
No doubt you'll approve, and maybe have a go yourself, but it's a cowardly and weak way of engaging in political debate, that commands zero respect from me.
Here's the rub: your respect isn't actually worth anything.
If my respect isn't worth anything, then it's a perfect match for your opinion.
Been at Dads making a fuss of him for Father's day, struck by the total lack of electoral paraphernalia anywhere in either of the constituencies travelled through hence and back. I think turnout is going to be absolutely shocking. I'm having a nibble at under 60%. I also think turnout filters on polling are way off as a result, but I'm not sure what effect that would have.
Yes, I was wondering if we might get a 59-61% turnout, in the zone of the 2001 and 2005GEs.
Although I am very much in the camp that AI isn't going to be all jobs in every sector in 2-3 years, not to be even having a discussion about how it will effect education and work is quite crazy. We know productivity is piss poor, we should be looking at what it can do for many aspects of the state (this is where Big Dom was actually onto something).
The GE is quite weird. Labour nor Tories really have any big new ideas, its just rehashing old policies with new names as if the world hasn't changed at all since 1997. Other big issues like knife crime, shop lifting, phone snatching, the most I have heard is some nonsense from Labour about well we will make Apple make it harder to reactivate them (but they already all go to China where this is irrelevant).
I’ve talked with people in the film/TV graphics business about AI. Because it has trouble with context, it is, once again useful as an autocomplete tool for small pieces of the work. Bit like how the old masters had a horde of assistants who filled in backgrounds for them.
Same in my industry - software development. It’s being used as a somewhat improved code completion tool. Once you beyond doing some simple functions it rapidly becomes a tool for generating code that does the wrong thing.
For soft stuff it is interesting - ask it what topics are missing in an essay, for example.
There will probably be an arms race to generate vast piles of documents, in certain jobs - and to read them and condense them on the other end.
Three points:
*) Where accuracy matters, AI will be problematic. *) Where privacy matters, AI will be problematic. (though that horse has already bolted...) *) Many documents are WORN (Write Once, Read Never). They never get to the read-and-condense stage.
1) yup 2) yup 3) the idea is that AI reading will try and help with the “bury the truth in the bullshit heap” tactic. The bullshit heaps will just expand in size to match.
2) nope
AI can be done entirely privately. Of course you don't submit private data to the ChatGPT site, but that's not the only way of doing AI.
At home I usually prefer wine (or whisky) but football always feels like I should have beer. I’m on the fence now, but either way you have made me thirsty!
Agree with beers for sport accompaniment. I am getting slightly concerned I’m going to run out of beers and end up on wine by the time of the England game starting. I accidentally started too early. Bloody 8pm kick offs.
Nip to the corner shop now before kick off, or you’ll be on the weird green liquor you once bought on holiday by half time.
The bigger question is drinks for election night. Some decent wine first, then a bottle of English sparkling from a Lib Dem target constituency ready and chilled but only opened if we beat 30 seats. Otherwise it’s gin.
@OliverKay For any England or Serbia fans who are still in the middle of Gelsenkirchen (or worse still not there yet), I’d recommend you set off on foot if you can.
It’s about three miles but the public transport situation is a total mess #ENGSER
Although I am very much in the camp that AI isn't going to be all jobs in every sector in 2-3 years, not to be even having a discussion about how it will effect education and work is quite crazy. We know productivity is piss poor, we should be looking at what it can do for many aspects of the state (this is where Big Dom was actually onto something).
The GE is quite weird. Labour nor Tories really have any big new ideas, its just rehashing old policies with new names as if the world hasn't changed at all since 1997. Other big issues like knife crime, shop lifting, phone snatching, the most I have heard is some nonsense from Labour about well we will make Apple make it harder to reactivate them (but they already all go to China where this is irrelevant).
I’ve talked with people in the film/TV graphics business about AI. Because it has trouble with context, it is, once again useful as an autocomplete tool for small pieces of the work. Bit like how the old masters had a horde of assistants who filled in backgrounds for them.
Same in my industry - software development. It’s being used as a somewhat improved code completion tool. Once you beyond doing some simple functions it rapidly becomes a tool for generating code that does the wrong thing.
For soft stuff it is interesting - ask it what topics are missing in an essay, for example.
There will probably be an arms race to generate vast piles of documents, in certain jobs - and to read them and condense them on the other end.
I'd imagine in editing/producing, it'll be able to do a lot of the initial work. Chopping up the story, identifying different people, transcribing dialogue, and making connections. It probably won't be able to do the 'human' side of understanding humour, but it's not like we need more TV. If it can be made cheaper then there is likely not to be as much work.
I'm an artist, who works mostly designing book covers, and sadly that's something that AI finds far too easy.
@OliverKay For any England or Serbia fans who are still in the middle of Gelsenkirchen (or worse still not there yet), I’d recommend you set off on foot if you can.
It’s about three miles but the public transport situation is a total mess #ENGSER
I am impressed that you posted that before William Glenn did.
Yes, clearly Trump is serious about pushing for a swift Ukrainian victory. If he said the opposite it would create complacency among Ukraine's European allies and give Russia an opportunity.
Trump is pushing for a swift Ukranian victory? What brings you to that interpretation?
What is the effect of his words if not to push European countries to pull their finger out and reduce dependence on the US?
An alternative theory suggests Trump is a humongous turd who will do his best to see Ukraine defeated. This is to return the favour to his friend Vladimir for his help in subverting the American political system to Trump's personal benefit.
You mean a conspiracy theory?
A conspiracy theory that a deliberate policy to starve Ukraine of the means to avoid defeat could be a deliberate policy to ensure defeat?
Yeah. I might buy into that.
How do you reconcile Trump's opposition to Germany filling Russia's coffers and underspending on defence with the view that he is determined to help Russian expansionism?
Your view depends on seeing the US as the only real actor in this with European countries reduced to being merely pawns. In a strange way you see eye-to-eye with Putin.
How do you reconcile his promise to cut support to Ukraine as his support for Ukraine?
He isn't running to be dictactor of the West and isn't proposing to do anything to prevent Ukraine acting to defend itself.
(This is in contrast to the Biden White House which has imposed conditions on Ukraine and made it fight with one hand tied behind its back as well as limiting what US allies can do to help.)
I had expected at least some engagement with the substantive content that Trump wants to cut aid, but if it is just about being an edgy right-wing internet provocateur, that's boring.
What did I say that's untrue?
The case against Trump is mainly psychological: he doesn't seem to care about which state the Donbas is part of, therefore he's a bad man, therefore everything he does has malign intent.
It's a way of thinking that is detached from the material world. Biden has acted as a drag on the Western world's response all along, placing limits on what military aid is given and how it can be used and using NATO unity as an excuse for not doing more. He also failed to deter Putin in the first place after holding a summit meeting with him before the invasion.
All of this is excused because Biden is deemed to be on the right side. He doesn't want Putin to win, so it doesn't seem to matter what effect his actions have on the outcome.
"...he doesn't seem to care about which state the Donbas is part of,"
There is much to be said about your post, little of which reflects well on you. But I thought I would concentrate on this.
If you look at what Putin has said he wants - including the maximalist surrender-of-Ukraine speech he made the other day, he does not just want the Donbass. He wants much more. Add in the way he is interfering in countries throughout Europe, including the Moldovan elections, and it is obvious you, as much as Trump, have malign intent.
What a disingenuous reply. My comment referred to what Trump wants and you responded by referring to what Putin wants.
I suggest you read the line I quoted. If you think it is just about Donbass, then you're an idiot Or worse.
To be clear; Trump doesn't care about Donbass. Or any other part of Ukraine. Or any other part of Europe. Or, in my view, about America. Trump only cares about Trump. And arse-lickers still want to support the guy.
You're back to psychoanalysis. Why is what they want more important than the effect of their decisions?
Is it better to want peace but take actions that create war, or to want war but take actions that create peace?
So if your kid is a remedial they get a free taxi to school every day?
Such a system could never be exploited
As well as a taxi
Universal Credit Disabled child element £1,873pa.
Which exempts you from the two child limit so if 3 or more kids in family
Extra Universal Child Element £3,455pa.
So badly behaved little Johnny getting an ADHD diagnosis is worth £5k a year tax free.
When the teacher calls you in about little johnnys bad behaviour they may well suggest getting help that leads to a diagnosis. The school getting £6k a year extra government funding for little Johnny if diagnosed of course dosen't enter into teachers head.
I think you greatly exaggerate the ease of getting a "statement", it usually takes years and multiple appeals.
It might be much better to tackle the problem upstream and identify and intervene with these children much earlier.
DOI: I have a nephew with ADHD amongst other diagnoses. It's not an easy condition for a family to live with.
Yes, that's my long experience, too. MisterBedford is an interesting new addition to the comments section.
It’s a trope from the MAGA/Putinist worldview that ADHD (and other child mental health issues) are fake and a woke plot. All the children really need is the cane. Etc.
Pretending that as many problems as possible don't really exist (e.g. anthropogenic global heating) also fits conveniently neatly with the desire for a small state and low taxes.
I am impressed that you posted that before William Glenn did.
Yes, clearly Trump is serious about pushing for a swift Ukrainian victory. If he said the opposite it would create complacency among Ukraine's European allies and give Russia an opportunity.
Trump is pushing for a swift Ukranian victory? What brings you to that interpretation?
What is the effect of his words if not to push European countries to pull their finger out and reduce dependence on the US?
An alternative theory suggests Trump is a humongous turd who will do his best to see Ukraine defeated. This is to return the favour to his friend Vladimir for his help in subverting the American political system to Trump's personal benefit.
You mean a conspiracy theory?
A conspiracy theory that a deliberate policy to starve Ukraine of the means to avoid defeat could be a deliberate policy to ensure defeat?
Yeah. I might buy into that.
How do you reconcile Trump's opposition to Germany filling Russia's coffers and underspending on defence with the view that he is determined to help Russian expansionism?
Your view depends on seeing the US as the only real actor in this with European countries reduced to being merely pawns. In a strange way you see eye-to-eye with Putin.
How do you reconcile his promise to cut support to Ukraine as his support for Ukraine?
He isn't running to be dictactor of the West and isn't proposing to do anything to prevent Ukraine acting to defend itself.
(This is in contrast to the Biden White House which has imposed conditions on Ukraine and made it fight with one hand tied behind its back as well as limiting what US allies can do to help.)
I had expected at least some engagement with the substantive content that Trump wants to cut aid, but if it is just about being an edgy right-wing internet provocateur, that's boring.
What did I say that's untrue?
The case against Trump is mainly psychological: he doesn't seem to care about which state the Donbas is part of, therefore he's a bad man, therefore everything he does has malign intent.
It's a way of thinking that is detached from the material world. Biden has acted as a drag on the Western world's response all along, placing limits on what military aid is given and how it can be used and using NATO unity as an excuse for not doing more. He also failed to deter Putin in the first place after holding a summit meeting with him before the invasion.
All of this is excused because Biden is deemed to be on the right side. He doesn't want Putin to win, so it doesn't seem to matter what effect his actions have on the outcome.
"...he doesn't seem to care about which state the Donbas is part of,"
There is much to be said about your post, little of which reflects well on you. But I thought I would concentrate on this.
If you look at what Putin has said he wants - including the maximalist surrender-of-Ukraine speech he made the other day, he does not just want the Donbass. He wants much more. Add in the way he is interfering in countries throughout Europe, including the Moldovan elections, and it is obvious you, as much as Trump, have malign intent.
What a disingenuous reply. My comment referred to what Trump wants and you responded by referring to what Putin wants.
I suggest you read the line I quoted. If you think it is just about Donbass, then you're an idiot Or worse.
To be clear; Trump doesn't care about Donbass. Or any other part of Ukraine. Or any other part of Europe. Or, in my view, about America. Trump only cares about Trump. And arse-lickers still want to support the guy.
I find it hard to keep up, but I think the QAnon/conspiracy folk more or less support Russia in Ukraine. SFAICS Trump needs their votes, and Trump's victory while likely is far from certain. Consistency, at least sometimes, with all their batty views will be needed. So he won't be saying how marvellous are: Soros, Gates, vaccinators, climate scientists, Rothschilds, Clintons, WEF, Ukraine etc even if he doesn't go full on.
@OliverKay For any England or Serbia fans who are still in the middle of Gelsenkirchen (or worse still not there yet), I’d recommend you set off on foot if you can.
It’s about three miles but the public transport situation is a total mess #ENGSER
@OliverKay Agree. It’s been really bad! Nothing like this in 2006
Maybe it's not just Britain where everything is falling apart.
It’s really not. I walk to all football matches, an hour plus. Queues are for mugs. I assumed everyone knew this???
I was staying with friends in Munich over Christmas and saying over dinner how wonderfully efficient and clean it was. The response was along the lines of “Germany’s fucked, we’re looking to move over the border to Austria and hedging our bets with a house in Kent”. The grass is always greener etc.
I am impressed that you posted that before William Glenn did.
Yes, clearly Trump is serious about pushing for a swift Ukrainian victory. If he said the opposite it would create complacency among Ukraine's European allies and give Russia an opportunity.
Trump is pushing for a swift Ukranian victory? What brings you to that interpretation?
What is the effect of his words if not to push European countries to pull their finger out and reduce dependence on the US?
An alternative theory suggests Trump is a humongous turd who will do his best to see Ukraine defeated. This is to return the favour to his friend Vladimir for his help in subverting the American political system to Trump's personal benefit.
You mean a conspiracy theory?
A conspiracy theory that a deliberate policy to starve Ukraine of the means to avoid defeat could be a deliberate policy to ensure defeat?
Yeah. I might buy into that.
How do you reconcile Trump's opposition to Germany filling Russia's coffers and underspending on defence with the view that he is determined to help Russian expansionism?
Your view depends on seeing the US as the only real actor in this with European countries reduced to being merely pawns. In a strange way you see eye-to-eye with Putin.
How do you reconcile his promise to cut support to Ukraine as his support for Ukraine?
He isn't running to be dictactor of the West and isn't proposing to do anything to prevent Ukraine acting to defend itself.
(This is in contrast to the Biden White House which has imposed conditions on Ukraine and made it fight with one hand tied behind its back as well as limiting what US allies can do to help.)
I had expected at least some engagement with the substantive content that Trump wants to cut aid, but if it is just about being an edgy right-wing internet provocateur, that's boring.
What did I say that's untrue?
The case against Trump is mainly psychological: he doesn't seem to care about which state the Donbas is part of, therefore he's a bad man, therefore everything he does has malign intent.
It's a way of thinking that is detached from the material world. Biden has acted as a drag on the Western world's response all along, placing limits on what military aid is given and how it can be used and using NATO unity as an excuse for not doing more. He also failed to deter Putin in the first place after holding a summit meeting with him before the invasion.
All of this is excused because Biden is deemed to be on the right side. He doesn't want Putin to win, so it doesn't seem to matter what effect his actions have on the outcome.
"...he doesn't seem to care about which state the Donbas is part of,"
There is much to be said about your post, little of which reflects well on you. But I thought I would concentrate on this.
If you look at what Putin has said he wants - including the maximalist surrender-of-Ukraine speech he made the other day, he does not just want the Donbass. He wants much more. Add in the way he is interfering in countries throughout Europe, including the Moldovan elections, and it is obvious you, as much as Trump, have malign intent.
What a disingenuous reply. My comment referred to what Trump wants and you responded by referring to what Putin wants.
I suggest you read the line I quoted. If you think it is just about Donbass, then you're an idiot Or worse.
To be clear; Trump doesn't care about Donbass. Or any other part of Ukraine. Or any other part of Europe. Or, in my view, about America. Trump only cares about Trump. And arse-lickers still want to support the guy.
You're back to psychoanalysis. Why is what they want more important than the effect of their decisions?
Is it better to want peace but take actions that create war, or to want war but take actions that create peace?
What makes you think that Trump cares about anything other than Trump? What contrary evidence do you have?
The person creating war is Putin. We have two choices: to back the countries facing Putin's fascist imperialism, or cave into it - wherever that leads.
You can only talk about 'peace' with people who want peace. Putin's latest so-called 'ceasefire' proposal shows that he is utterly uninterested in anything approaching peace. It is basically: "Give me what I want, and leave yourself defenceless for the future."
Although I am very much in the camp that AI isn't going to be all jobs in every sector in 2-3 years, not to be even having a discussion about how it will effect education and work is quite crazy. We know productivity is piss poor, we should be looking at what it can do for many aspects of the state (this is where Big Dom was actually onto something).
The GE is quite weird. Labour nor Tories really have any big new ideas, its just rehashing old policies with new names as if the world hasn't changed at all since 1997. Other big issues like knife crime, shop lifting, phone snatching, the most I have heard is some nonsense from Labour about well we will make Apple make it harder to reactivate them (but they already all go to China where this is irrelevant).
I’ve talked with people in the film/TV graphics business about AI. Because it has trouble with context, it is, once again useful as an autocomplete tool for small pieces of the work. Bit like how the old masters had a horde of assistants who filled in backgrounds for them.
Same in my industry - software development. It’s being used as a somewhat improved code completion tool. Once you beyond doing some simple functions it rapidly becomes a tool for generating code that does the wrong thing.
For soft stuff it is interesting - ask it what topics are missing in an essay, for example.
There will probably be an arms race to generate vast piles of documents, in certain jobs - and to read them and condense them on the other end.
I’m frankly amazed that people in industry X, when asked about the future of people in industry X, don’t all say “yeah we’re all doomed, it’s over, my family will be starving by Christmas”
Anyway greetings from my last sunny evening in Odessa. Honestly what a city. Even in a war the women are beautiful and the food is superb (it really is) and the air has a magical softness
Plus tip top Moldovan wine and a massive England win in the footy for sure. Bliss
I am impressed that you posted that before William Glenn did.
Yes, clearly Trump is serious about pushing for a swift Ukrainian victory. If he said the opposite it would create complacency among Ukraine's European allies and give Russia an opportunity.
Trump is pushing for a swift Ukranian victory? What brings you to that interpretation?
What is the effect of his words if not to push European countries to pull their finger out and reduce dependence on the US?
An alternative theory suggests Trump is a humongous turd who will do his best to see Ukraine defeated. This is to return the favour to his friend Vladimir for his help in subverting the American political system to Trump's personal benefit.
You mean a conspiracy theory?
A conspiracy theory that a deliberate policy to starve Ukraine of the means to avoid defeat could be a deliberate policy to ensure defeat?
Yeah. I might buy into that.
How do you reconcile Trump's opposition to Germany filling Russia's coffers and underspending on defence with the view that he is determined to help Russian expansionism?
Your view depends on seeing the US as the only real actor in this with European countries reduced to being merely pawns. In a strange way you see eye-to-eye with Putin.
How do you reconcile his promise to cut support to Ukraine as his support for Ukraine?
He isn't running to be dictactor of the West and isn't proposing to do anything to prevent Ukraine acting to defend itself.
(This is in contrast to the Biden White House which has imposed conditions on Ukraine and made it fight with one hand tied behind its back as well as limiting what US allies can do to help.)
I had expected at least some engagement with the substantive content that Trump wants to cut aid, but if it is just about being an edgy right-wing internet provocateur, that's boring.
What did I say that's untrue?
The case against Trump is mainly psychological: he doesn't seem to care about which state the Donbas is part of, therefore he's a bad man, therefore everything he does has malign intent.
It's a way of thinking that is detached from the material world. Biden has acted as a drag on the Western world's response all along, placing limits on what military aid is given and how it can be used and using NATO unity as an excuse for not doing more. He also failed to deter Putin in the first place after holding a summit meeting with him before the invasion.
All of this is excused because Biden is deemed to be on the right side. He doesn't want Putin to win, so it doesn't seem to matter what effect his actions have on the outcome.
"...he doesn't seem to care about which state the Donbas is part of,"
There is much to be said about your post, little of which reflects well on you. But I thought I would concentrate on this.
If you look at what Putin has said he wants - including the maximalist surrender-of-Ukraine speech he made the other day, he does not just want the Donbass. He wants much more. Add in the way he is interfering in countries throughout Europe, including the Moldovan elections, and it is obvious you, as much as Trump, have malign intent.
What a disingenuous reply. My comment referred to what Trump wants and you responded by referring to what Putin wants.
I suggest you read the line I quoted. If you think it is just about Donbass, then you're an idiot Or worse.
To be clear; Trump doesn't care about Donbass. Or any other part of Ukraine. Or any other part of Europe. Or, in my view, about America. Trump only cares about Trump. And arse-lickers still want to support the guy.
You're back to psychoanalysis. Why is what they want more important than the effect of their decisions?
Is it better to want peace but take actions that create war, or to want war but take actions that create peace?
What makes you think that Trump cares about anything other than Trump? What contrary evidence do you have?
The person creating war is Putin. We have two choices: to back the countries facing Putin's fascist imperialism, or cave into it - wherever that leads.
You can only talk about 'peace' with people who want peace. Putin's latest so-called 'ceasefire' proposal shows that he is utterly uninterested in anything approaching peace. It is basically: "Give me what I want, and leave yourself defenceless for the future."
You place too much weight on caring and not enough on politics and outcomes. Biden's caring approach is why Putin chose to invade in the first place.
A US president who cares only about himself and his own legacy could nevertheless be the best person for the job.
Be still my beating heart. And we get keir bloody starmer. Sigh
Nice change from Gove on the dancefloor. And Mr Toad. Some Scottish weddings look a bit like that. But fascist is as fascist does, and she ain't done fascist like things. Come back and report when she has occupied Slovenia, invaded Tunisia and delended Carthage, bombed Paris and thrown a million ethnic minorities into the sea.
It’s a trope from the MAGA/Putinist worldview that ADHD (and other child mental health issues) are fake and a woke plot. All the children really need is the cane. Etc.
Er, no. I followed up with:
"This flushes out one of the other issues. Those with children with disabilities who are honest and play by the rules have all sorts of difficulties.
Nasty pieces of work who know how to game the system and are quite unpleasant if resisted generally get their way as doctors/assessors etc are terrified of being thrown to the wolves if a complaint is made and don't want the hassle. Especially if an -ism is involved."
Thats how you end up with half a class/ a quarter of the school on Send, as reported by another correspondent upthread.
I don't entirely blame the cheaters. Dangle £5k a year in front of people who are never going to get more than a McJob and it is fairly obvious what will happen.
"The number of students on these [Send] plans has doubled from 105,000 eight years ago to 230,000 in 2023."
"Modelling within the report predicts that the costs of providing SEND school transport will almost triple over a decade – from £397m in 2018/19 to £1.125bn in 2027/28"
Are you suggesting child disabilities have actually doubled in eight years?
Blame the messenger if you like, but don't be surprised, that if nothing is done about what amounts to institutionalised corruption and the situation continues to suck in ever more money, if someone with an agenda similar to Javier Milei is the next Farage in a few years.
Great header, Richard, thanks. That's quite a shocking list, notable for its omissions. I doubt it will end up like this, but it's certainly interesting to know who may be around to pick up the pieces if it does. Will Boris Johnson ever get the blame that he deserves for what has happened to the Tory party? I suspect not.
Although I am very much in the camp that AI isn't going to be all jobs in every sector in 2-3 years, not to be even having a discussion about how it will effect education and work is quite crazy. We know productivity is piss poor, we should be looking at what it can do for many aspects of the state (this is where Big Dom was actually onto something).
The GE is quite weird. Labour nor Tories really have any big new ideas, its just rehashing old policies with new names as if the world hasn't changed at all since 1997. Other big issues like knife crime, shop lifting, phone snatching, the most I have heard is some nonsense from Labour about well we will make Apple make it harder to reactivate them (but they already all go to China where this is irrelevant).
I’ve talked with people in the film/TV graphics business about AI. Because it has trouble with context, it is, once again useful as an autocomplete tool for small pieces of the work. Bit like how the old masters had a horde of assistants who filled in backgrounds for them.
Same in my industry - software development. It’s being used as a somewhat improved code completion tool. Once you beyond doing some simple functions it rapidly becomes a tool for generating code that does the wrong thing.
For soft stuff it is interesting - ask it what topics are missing in an essay, for example.
There will probably be an arms race to generate vast piles of documents, in certain jobs - and to read them and condense them on the other end.
I'd imagine in editing/producing, it'll be able to do a lot of the initial work. Chopping up the story, identifying different people, transcribing dialogue, and making connections. It probably won't be able to do the 'human' side of understanding humour, but it's not like we need more TV. If it can be made cheaper then there is likely not to be as much work.
I'm an artist, who works mostly designing book covers, and sadly that's something that AI finds far too easy.
@OliverKay For any England or Serbia fans who are still in the middle of Gelsenkirchen (or worse still not there yet), I’d recommend you set off on foot if you can.
It’s about three miles but the public transport situation is a total mess #ENGSER
@OliverKay Agree. It’s been really bad! Nothing like this in 2006
Maybe it's not just Britain where everything is falling apart.
It’s really not. I walk to all football matches, an hour plus. Queues are for mugs. I assumed everyone knew this???
I was staying with friends in Munich over Christmas and saying over dinner how wonderfully efficient and clean it was. The response was along the lines of “Germany’s fucked, we’re looking to move over the border to Austria and hedging our bets with a house in Kent”. The grass is always greener etc.
Other than the London and Manchester clubs, do any English clubs actually have any public transport to any of their grounds, other than buses ?
It’s a trope from the MAGA/Putinist worldview that ADHD (and other child mental health issues) are fake and a woke plot. All the children really need is the cane. Etc.
Er, no. I followed up with:
"This flushes out one of the other issues. Those with children with disabilities who are honest and play by the rules have all sorts of difficulties.
Nasty pieces of work who know how to game the system and are quite unpleasant if resisted generally get their way as doctors/assessors etc are terrified of being thrown to the wolves if a complaint is made and don't want the hassle. Especially if an -ism is involved."
Thats how you end up with half a class/ a quarter of the school on Send, as reported by another correspondent upthread.
I don't entirely blame the cheaters. Dangle £5k a year in front of people who are never going to get more than a McJob and it is fairly obvious what will happen.
"The number of students on these [Send] plans has doubled from 105,000 eight years ago to 230,000 in 2023."
"Modelling within the report predicts that the costs of providing SEND school transport will almost triple over a decade – from £397m in 2018/19 to £1.125bn in 2027/28"
Are you suggesting child disabilities have actually doubled in eight years?
Blame the messenger if you like, but don't be surprised, that if nothing is done about what amounts to institutionalised corruption and the situation continues to suck in ever more money, if someone with an agenda similar to Javier Milei is the next Farage in a few years.
Follow the money. Like water flows downhill. Never fails. Like cherchez la femme.
Reform candidate standing in Kemi Badenoch's constituency says he will resign after comments emerged in which he called on people to vote for BNP
Grant StClair-Armstrong is standing against Badenoch in North West Essex
In 2010 he said 'I could weep now, every time I pick up a British newspaper and read the latest about the state of the UK. No doubt, Enoch Powell would be doing the same if he was alive. My solution … vote BNP!'
StClair-Armstrong told The Times: 'I’ve got no excuses for that. I think they’re a disgusting party. I don’t like the English Defence League. I don’t like them'
Though not many vineyards there as a lot of it is on bagshot sands.
Lewes is probably the best realistic Lib Dem target from the perspective of viticulture. It boasts the huge Rathfinny estate, legendary Breaky Bottom, Plumpton which is the UK’s only winemaking college, Ridgeview (I think), Everflyt, and several others. I think that’s where I’ll focus my purchases for the 4th.
Although I am very much in the camp that AI isn't going to be all jobs in every sector in 2-3 years, not to be even having a discussion about how it will effect education and work is quite crazy. We know productivity is piss poor, we should be looking at what it can do for many aspects of the state (this is where Big Dom was actually onto something).
The GE is quite weird. Labour nor Tories really have any big new ideas, its just rehashing old policies with new names as if the world hasn't changed at all since 1997. Other big issues like knife crime, shop lifting, phone snatching, the most I have heard is some nonsense from Labour about well we will make Apple make it harder to reactivate them (but they already all go to China where this is irrelevant).
I’ve talked with people in the film/TV graphics business about AI. Because it has trouble with context, it is, once again useful as an autocomplete tool for small pieces of the work. Bit like how the old masters had a horde of assistants who filled in backgrounds for them.
Same in my industry - software development. It’s being used as a somewhat improved code completion tool. Once you beyond doing some simple functions it rapidly becomes a tool for generating code that does the wrong thing.
For soft stuff it is interesting - ask it what topics are missing in an essay, for example.
There will probably be an arms race to generate vast piles of documents, in certain jobs - and to read them and condense them on the other end.
I'd imagine in editing/producing, it'll be able to do a lot of the initial work. Chopping up the story, identifying different people, transcribing dialogue, and making connections. It probably won't be able to do the 'human' side of understanding humour, but it's not like we need more TV. If it can be made cheaper then there is likely not to be as much work.
I'm an artist, who works mostly designing book covers, and sadly that's something that AI finds far too easy.
If things worked according to predictions there should by now be virtually no hard copy books because of internet, kindle, smartphones and all that; and therefore already no book covers.
Books (I predict) will do fine. I hope the same can be said for proper covers.
@OliverKay For any England or Serbia fans who are still in the middle of Gelsenkirchen (or worse still not there yet), I’d recommend you set off on foot if you can.
It’s about three miles but the public transport situation is a total mess #ENGSER
@OliverKay Agree. It’s been really bad! Nothing like this in 2006
Maybe it's not just Britain where everything is falling apart.
It’s really not. I walk to all football matches, an hour plus. Queues are for mugs. I assumed everyone knew this???
I was staying with friends in Munich over Christmas and saying over dinner how wonderfully efficient and clean it was. The response was along the lines of “Germany’s fucked, we’re looking to move over the border to Austria and hedging our bets with a house in Kent”. The grass is always greener etc.
Other than the London and Manchester clubs, do any English clubs actually have any public transport to any of their grounds, other than buses ?
It shows Labour 427 seats, Conservative 134, Liberal Democrat 48, and SNP 18, giving an overall Labour majority of 206.
That forecast uses the current default settings, fairly similar to those used for reasonably accurate forecasts in the past, using the actual candidate list and taking some account of incumbency and tactical voting. To be honest, though, it is very easy to produce a range of results just by adjusting the algorithm slightly, ranging from similar to most MRP polls (Con seats 83) through to similar to UNS (Con seats 175). Which is correct in the current political circumstances? After some detailed research, and reading some of the experts in the field - I wish I knew!
It’s a trope from the MAGA/Putinist worldview that ADHD (and other child mental health issues) are fake and a woke plot. All the children really need is the cane. Etc.
Er, no. I followed up with:
"This flushes out one of the other issues. Those with children with disabilities who are honest and play by the rules have all sorts of difficulties.
Nasty pieces of work who know how to game the system and are quite unpleasant if resisted generally get their way as doctors/assessors etc are terrified of being thrown to the wolves if a complaint is made and don't want the hassle. Especially if an -ism is involved."
Thats how you end up with half a class/ a quarter of the school on Send, as reported by another correspondent upthread.
I don't entirely blame the cheaters. Dangle £5k a year in front of people who are never going to get more than a McJob and it is fairly obvious what will happen.
"The number of students on these [Send] plans has doubled from 105,000 eight years ago to 230,000 in 2023."
"Modelling within the report predicts that the costs of providing SEND school transport will almost triple over a decade – from £397m in 2018/19 to £1.125bn in 2027/28"
Are you suggesting child disabilities have actually doubled in eight years?
Blame the messenger if you like, but don't be surprised, that if nothing is done about what amounts to institutionalised corruption and the situation continues to suck in ever more money, if someone with an agenda similar to Javier Milei is the next Farage in a few years.
Follow the money. Like water flows downhill. Never fails. Like cherchez la femme.
Indeed.
Another form of such corruption is the recipients of housing benefit (local housing allowance it is called now I think)
The recipients are not the people who everyone thinks are recipients (ie tenants), they are just the handlers.
The recipients are the landlords. No means test for them, just a lobby to raise housing allowance. That lobby includes those landlords who do not have "benefits" tenants as any raise in housing allorance boosts rental levels throughout the market (as does allowing more immigration than properties being built to house the unfortunate incomers)
"A total of 83 Tories have declared they received the sizeable rental payments since the last election in December 2019, along with 18 Labour MPs, four Liberal Democrats and one member of the SNP"
I am impressed that you posted that before William Glenn did.
Yes, clearly Trump is serious about pushing for a swift Ukrainian victory. If he said the opposite it would create complacency among Ukraine's European allies and give Russia an opportunity.
Trump is pushing for a swift Ukranian victory? What brings you to that interpretation?
What is the effect of his words if not to push European countries to pull their finger out and reduce dependence on the US?
An alternative theory suggests Trump is a humongous turd who will do his best to see Ukraine defeated. This is to return the favour to his friend Vladimir for his help in subverting the American political system to Trump's personal benefit.
You mean a conspiracy theory?
A conspiracy theory that a deliberate policy to starve Ukraine of the means to avoid defeat could be a deliberate policy to ensure defeat?
Yeah. I might buy into that.
How do you reconcile Trump's opposition to Germany filling Russia's coffers and underspending on defence with the view that he is determined to help Russian expansionism?
Your view depends on seeing the US as the only real actor in this with European countries reduced to being merely pawns. In a strange way you see eye-to-eye with Putin.
How do you reconcile his promise to cut support to Ukraine as his support for Ukraine?
He isn't running to be dictactor of the West and isn't proposing to do anything to prevent Ukraine acting to defend itself.
(This is in contrast to the Biden White House which has imposed conditions on Ukraine and made it fight with one hand tied behind its back as well as limiting what US allies can do to help.)
I had expected at least some engagement with the substantive content that Trump wants to cut aid, but if it is just about being an edgy right-wing internet provocateur, that's boring.
What did I say that's untrue?
The case against Trump is mainly psychological: he doesn't seem to care about which state the Donbas is part of, therefore he's a bad man, therefore everything he does has malign intent.
It's a way of thinking that is detached from the material world. Biden has acted as a drag on the Western world's response all along, placing limits on what military aid is given and how it can be used and using NATO unity as an excuse for not doing more. He also failed to deter Putin in the first place after holding a summit meeting with him before the invasion.
All of this is excused because Biden is deemed to be on the right side. He doesn't want Putin to win, so it doesn't seem to matter what effect his actions have on the outcome.
"...he doesn't seem to care about which state the Donbas is part of,"
There is much to be said about your post, little of which reflects well on you. But I thought I would concentrate on this.
If you look at what Putin has said he wants - including the maximalist surrender-of-Ukraine speech he made the other day, he does not just want the Donbass. He wants much more. Add in the way he is interfering in countries throughout Europe, including the Moldovan elections, and it is obvious you, as much as Trump, have malign intent.
What a disingenuous reply. My comment referred to what Trump wants and you responded by referring to what Putin wants.
I suggest you read the line I quoted. If you think it is just about Donbass, then you're an idiot Or worse.
To be clear; Trump doesn't care about Donbass. Or any other part of Ukraine. Or any other part of Europe. Or, in my view, about America. Trump only cares about Trump. And arse-lickers still want to support the guy.
You're back to psychoanalysis. Why is what they want more important than the effect of their decisions?
Is it better to want peace but take actions that create war, or to want war but take actions that create peace?
What makes you think that Trump cares about anything other than Trump? What contrary evidence do you have?
The person creating war is Putin. We have two choices: to back the countries facing Putin's fascist imperialism, or cave into it - wherever that leads.
You can only talk about 'peace' with people who want peace. Putin's latest so-called 'ceasefire' proposal shows that he is utterly uninterested in anything approaching peace. It is basically: "Give me what I want, and leave yourself defenceless for the future."
You place too much weight on caring and not enough on politics and outcomes. Biden's caring approach is why Putin chose to invade in the first place.
A US president who cares only about himself and his own legacy could nevertheless be the best person for the job.
IMV the only reason that Putin did not order troops to invade the rest of Ukraine before 2022 were Covid (post 2020), and the rather important fact that he was still in the process of building up and renewing his military after the travails of the 1990s and 2000s.
Fortunately for the free world, Putin's military still was not ready in 2022.
I am impressed that you posted that before William Glenn did.
Yes, clearly Trump is serious about pushing for a swift Ukrainian victory. If he said the opposite it would create complacency among Ukraine's European allies and give Russia an opportunity.
Trump is pushing for a swift Ukranian victory? What brings you to that interpretation?
What is the effect of his words if not to push European countries to pull their finger out and reduce dependence on the US?
An alternative theory suggests Trump is a humongous turd who will do his best to see Ukraine defeated. This is to return the favour to his friend Vladimir for his help in subverting the American political system to Trump's personal benefit.
You mean a conspiracy theory?
A conspiracy theory that a deliberate policy to starve Ukraine of the means to avoid defeat could be a deliberate policy to ensure defeat?
Yeah. I might buy into that.
How do you reconcile Trump's opposition to Germany filling Russia's coffers and underspending on defence with the view that he is determined to help Russian expansionism?
Your view depends on seeing the US as the only real actor in this with European countries reduced to being merely pawns. In a strange way you see eye-to-eye with Putin.
How do you reconcile his promise to cut support to Ukraine as his support for Ukraine?
He isn't running to be dictactor of the West and isn't proposing to do anything to prevent Ukraine acting to defend itself.
(This is in contrast to the Biden White House which has imposed conditions on Ukraine and made it fight with one hand tied behind its back as well as limiting what US allies can do to help.)
I had expected at least some engagement with the substantive content that Trump wants to cut aid, but if it is just about being an edgy right-wing internet provocateur, that's boring.
What did I say that's untrue?
The case against Trump is mainly psychological: he doesn't seem to care about which state the Donbas is part of, therefore he's a bad man, therefore everything he does has malign intent.
It's a way of thinking that is detached from the material world. Biden has acted as a drag on the Western world's response all along, placing limits on what military aid is given and how it can be used and using NATO unity as an excuse for not doing more. He also failed to deter Putin in the first place after holding a summit meeting with him before the invasion.
All of this is excused because Biden is deemed to be on the right side. He doesn't want Putin to win, so it doesn't seem to matter what effect his actions have on the outcome.
"...he doesn't seem to care about which state the Donbas is part of,"
There is much to be said about your post, little of which reflects well on you. But I thought I would concentrate on this.
If you look at what Putin has said he wants - including the maximalist surrender-of-Ukraine speech he made the other day, he does not just want the Donbass. He wants much more. Add in the way he is interfering in countries throughout Europe, including the Moldovan elections, and it is obvious you, as much as Trump, have malign intent.
What a disingenuous reply. My comment referred to what Trump wants and you responded by referring to what Putin wants.
I suggest you read the line I quoted. If you think it is just about Donbass, then you're an idiot Or worse.
To be clear; Trump doesn't care about Donbass. Or any other part of Ukraine. Or any other part of Europe. Or, in my view, about America. Trump only cares about Trump. And arse-lickers still want to support the guy.
You're back to psychoanalysis. Why is what they want more important than the effect of their decisions?
Is it better to want peace but take actions that create war, or to want war but take actions that create peace?
What makes you think that Trump cares about anything other than Trump? What contrary evidence do you have?
The person creating war is Putin. We have two choices: to back the countries facing Putin's fascist imperialism, or cave into it - wherever that leads.
You can only talk about 'peace' with people who want peace. Putin's latest so-called 'ceasefire' proposal shows that he is utterly uninterested in anything approaching peace. It is basically: "Give me what I want, and leave yourself defenceless for the future."
You place too much weight on caring and not enough on politics and outcomes. Biden's caring approach is why Putin chose to invade in the first place.
A US president who cares only about himself and his own legacy could nevertheless be the best person for the job.
IMV the only reason that Putin did not order troops to invade the rest of Ukraine before 2022 were Covid (post 2020), and the rather important fact that he was still in the process of building up and renewing his military after the travails of the 1990s and 2000s.
Fortunately for the free world, Putin's military still was not ready in 2022.
Also that Trump told him that if he did he would Nuke Moscow.
As Trump himself admitted, Putin didn't 50% believe it, not even 10%; he maybe 5% believed it. But that was enough.
It shows Labour 427 seats, Conservative 134, Liberal Democrat 48, and SNP 18, giving an overall Labour majority of 206.
That forecast uses the current default settings, fairly similar to those used for reasonably accurate forecasts in the past, using the actual candidate list and taking some account of incumbency and tactical voting. To be honest, though, it is very easy to produce a range of results just by adjusting the algorithm slightly, ranging from similar to most MRP polls (Con seats 83) through to similar to UNS (Con seats 175). Which is correct in the current political circumstances? After some detailed research, and reading some of the experts in the field - I wish I knew!
This looks about right to me, and would suit my betting position, much as I would like to see the Tories down to double figures.
Back to politics and betting for a moment. Those who recall my epic "London Falling" thread from a couple of weeks back my recall I offered these as attractive bets for the election:
Harrow East – CON 9/4 Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner – CON 4/5 Bromley & Biggin Hill – CON 11/8 Croydon East – CON 10/1 Croydon South – CON 2/1 Romford – CON 6/4
In the light of some comments expressing the view the Conservatives may not do too badly in Outer London compared with other areas, I thought I'd see what I was standing in against the latest Survation MRP.
Harrow East - Lab 41.4%, Con 38.6% - Conservatives out to 5/2 but looks a decent bet. Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner - Lab 34.6%, Con 34.2% - Conservatives still 4/5, Labour 10/11 so the bookies taking no chances. Bromley & Biggin Hill Lab 36.8%., Con 28.8% - Conservatives still 11/8 but I may be on the wrong side of the bet. Croydon East Lab 46.6%, Con 26.2% - Conservatives still 10/1. The humble pie is in the oven and cooking slowly but I will be astonished if Labour win this by 20 points. Croydon South Lab 46.7%, Con 31.4% - Conservatives now 5/2. Rather like Harrow East, I don't believe the MRP but as I've said on here more than once just before you don't believe or can conceive of something happening doesn't mean it can't happen. Romford Lab 36.3%, Con 35% - Conservatives 6/4 and I'm still happy with the bet.
I also offered Sutton & Cheam as an LD gain at 11/10. The Survation MRP has the LDs at 31.1% and the Conservatives at 25.7%. The LDs are now 10/11 with the Conservatives at 11/10 so I might just be on the right side of that one.
Closer to home (well, my home) the MRP for East Ham has Labour down to 65% and the Conservatives at 10.6% with a real scrap on for third between the Greens, Reform and the Newham Indpendents.
I am impressed that you posted that before William Glenn did.
Yes, clearly Trump is serious about pushing for a swift Ukrainian victory. If he said the opposite it would create complacency among Ukraine's European allies and give Russia an opportunity.
Trump is pushing for a swift Ukranian victory? What brings you to that interpretation?
What is the effect of his words if not to push European countries to pull their finger out and reduce dependence on the US?
An alternative theory suggests Trump is a humongous turd who will do his best to see Ukraine defeated. This is to return the favour to his friend Vladimir for his help in subverting the American political system to Trump's personal benefit.
You mean a conspiracy theory?
A conspiracy theory that a deliberate policy to starve Ukraine of the means to avoid defeat could be a deliberate policy to ensure defeat?
Yeah. I might buy into that.
How do you reconcile Trump's opposition to Germany filling Russia's coffers and underspending on defence with the view that he is determined to help Russian expansionism?
Your view depends on seeing the US as the only real actor in this with European countries reduced to being merely pawns. In a strange way you see eye-to-eye with Putin.
How do you reconcile his promise to cut support to Ukraine as his support for Ukraine?
He isn't running to be dictactor of the West and isn't proposing to do anything to prevent Ukraine acting to defend itself.
(This is in contrast to the Biden White House which has imposed conditions on Ukraine and made it fight with one hand tied behind its back as well as limiting what US allies can do to help.)
I had expected at least some engagement with the substantive content that Trump wants to cut aid, but if it is just about being an edgy right-wing internet provocateur, that's boring.
What did I say that's untrue?
The case against Trump is mainly psychological: he doesn't seem to care about which state the Donbas is part of, therefore he's a bad man, therefore everything he does has malign intent.
It's a way of thinking that is detached from the material world. Biden has acted as a drag on the Western world's response all along, placing limits on what military aid is given and how it can be used and using NATO unity as an excuse for not doing more. He also failed to deter Putin in the first place after holding a summit meeting with him before the invasion.
All of this is excused because Biden is deemed to be on the right side. He doesn't want Putin to win, so it doesn't seem to matter what effect his actions have on the outcome.
"...he doesn't seem to care about which state the Donbas is part of,"
There is much to be said about your post, little of which reflects well on you. But I thought I would concentrate on this.
If you look at what Putin has said he wants - including the maximalist surrender-of-Ukraine speech he made the other day, he does not just want the Donbass. He wants much more. Add in the way he is interfering in countries throughout Europe, including the Moldovan elections, and it is obvious you, as much as Trump, have malign intent.
What a disingenuous reply. My comment referred to what Trump wants and you responded by referring to what Putin wants.
I suggest you read the line I quoted. If you think it is just about Donbass, then you're an idiot Or worse.
To be clear; Trump doesn't care about Donbass. Or any other part of Ukraine. Or any other part of Europe. Or, in my view, about America. Trump only cares about Trump. And arse-lickers still want to support the guy.
You're back to psychoanalysis. Why is what they want more important than the effect of their decisions?
Is it better to want peace but take actions that create war, or to want war but take actions that create peace?
What makes you think that Trump cares about anything other than Trump? What contrary evidence do you have?
The person creating war is Putin. We have two choices: to back the countries facing Putin's fascist imperialism, or cave into it - wherever that leads.
You can only talk about 'peace' with people who want peace. Putin's latest so-called 'ceasefire' proposal shows that he is utterly uninterested in anything approaching peace. It is basically: "Give me what I want, and leave yourself defenceless for the future."
You place too much weight on caring and not enough on politics and outcomes. Biden's caring approach is why Putin chose to invade in the first place.
A US president who cares only about himself and his own legacy could nevertheless be the best person for the job.
IMV the only reason that Putin did not order troops to invade the rest of Ukraine before 2022 were Covid (post 2020), and the rather important fact that he was still in the process of building up and renewing his military after the travails of the 1990s and 2000s.
Fortunately for the free world, Putin's military still was not ready in 2022.
How was he financing his military build up, and did any US president warn against this and try to stop it?
A vote for Labour is a vote for your Council Tax bill going up.
It's going up under the Tories anyway! As is tax (highest on record) and immigration (highest on record) The reasons I normally vote Tory no longer exist. Better to start again with another centre right alternative
My reading is that he is comparing the Ottoman authorities to the Nazis, since they are the ones who claimed authority to allocate the monuments.
Well, yes. Obviously. How impressed would you be if somewhere like Uruguay had bought the arc de triomphe and refused to return it, because they had a valid sale contract signed by Eichmann?
@OliverKay For any England or Serbia fans who are still in the middle of Gelsenkirchen (or worse still not there yet), I’d recommend you set off on foot if you can.
It’s about three miles but the public transport situation is a total mess #ENGSER
@OliverKay Agree. It’s been really bad! Nothing like this in 2006
Maybe it's not just Britain where everything is falling apart.
It’s really not. I walk to all football matches, an hour plus. Queues are for mugs. I assumed everyone knew this???
I was staying with friends in Munich over Christmas and saying over dinner how wonderfully efficient and clean it was. The response was along the lines of “Germany’s fucked, we’re looking to move over the border to Austria and hedging our bets with a house in Kent”. The grass is always greener etc.
Other than the London and Manchester clubs, do any English clubs actually have any public transport to any of their grounds, other than buses ?
Portman Road is about ten minutes walk from Ipswich railway station, does that count?
@OliverKay For any England or Serbia fans who are still in the middle of Gelsenkirchen (or worse still not there yet), I’d recommend you set off on foot if you can.
It’s about three miles but the public transport situation is a total mess #ENGSER
@OliverKay Agree. It’s been really bad! Nothing like this in 2006
Maybe it's not just Britain where everything is falling apart.
It’s really not. I walk to all football matches, an hour plus. Queues are for mugs. I assumed everyone knew this???
I was staying with friends in Munich over Christmas and saying over dinner how wonderfully efficient and clean it was. The response was along the lines of “Germany’s fucked, we’re looking to move over the border to Austria and hedging our bets with a house in Kent”. The grass is always greener etc.
Other than the London and Manchester clubs, do any English clubs actually have any public transport to any of their grounds, other than buses ?
Portman Road is about ten minutes walk from Ipswich railway station, does that count?
Walking to the City Ground from the station is/was half the fun.
At home I usually prefer wine (or whisky) but football always feels like I should have beer. I’m on the fence now, but either way you have made me thirsty!
Agree with beers for sport accompaniment. I am getting slightly concerned I’m going to run out of beers and end up on wine by the time of the England game starting. I accidentally started too early. Bloody 8pm kick offs.
Nip to the corner shop now before kick off, or you’ll be on the weird green liquor you once bought on holiday by half time.
The bigger question is drinks for election night. Some decent wine first, then a bottle of English sparkling from a Lib Dem target constituency ready and chilled but only opened if we beat 30 seats. Otherwise it’s gin.
I start with a decent bottle of red, and get the whisky out for the Scottish seats. Cheese and charcuterie of course.
@OliverKay For any England or Serbia fans who are still in the middle of Gelsenkirchen (or worse still not there yet), I’d recommend you set off on foot if you can.
It’s about three miles but the public transport situation is a total mess #ENGSER
@OliverKay Agree. It’s been really bad! Nothing like this in 2006
Maybe it's not just Britain where everything is falling apart.
It’s really not. I walk to all football matches, an hour plus. Queues are for mugs. I assumed everyone knew this???
I was staying with friends in Munich over Christmas and saying over dinner how wonderfully efficient and clean it was. The response was along the lines of “Germany’s fucked, we’re looking to move over the border to Austria and hedging our bets with a house in Kent”. The grass is always greener etc.
Other than the London and Manchester clubs, do any English clubs actually have any public transport to any of their grounds, other than buses ?
Portman Road is about ten minutes walk from Ipswich railway station, does that count?
Gillingham Station is similarly only about 12 minutes from Priestfield.
Ipswich were voted into the Football League at Gillingham’s expense back in the day which is why I’ve kept my allegiance quiet in this part of the world.
To lighten the mood here’s a picture of our new rescue, Rocko, and the torso of my human alter ego.
Fascinating language creep. You say "rescue" when what I am seeing is a second hand dog. If stuff was happening to it that it really needed "rescuing" from I would be cautious with that breed.
Back to politics and betting for a moment. Those who recall my epic "London Falling" thread from a couple of weeks back my recall I offered these as attractive bets for the election:
Harrow East – CON 9/4 Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner – CON 4/5 Bromley & Biggin Hill – CON 11/8 Croydon East – CON 10/1 Croydon South – CON 2/1 Romford – CON 6/4
In the light of some comments expressing the view the Conservatives may not do too badly in Outer London compared with other areas, I thought I'd see what I was standing in against the latest Survation MRP.
Harrow East - Lab 41.4%, Con 38.6% - Conservatives out to 5/2 but looks a decent bet. Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner - Lab 34.6%, Con 34.2% - Conservatives still 4/5, Labour 10/11 so the bookies taking no chances. Bromley & Biggin Hill Lab 36.8%., Con 28.8% - Conservatives still 11/8 but I may be on the wrong side of the bet. Croydon East Lab 46.6%, Con 26.2% - Conservatives still 10/1. The humble pie is in the oven and cooking slowly but I will be astonished if Labour win this by 20 points. Croydon South Lab 46.7%, Con 31.4% - Conservatives now 5/2. Rather like Harrow East, I don't believe the MRP but as I've said on here more than once just before you don't believe or can conceive of something happening doesn't mean it can't happen. Romford Lab 36.3%, Con 35% - Conservatives 6/4 and I'm still happy with the bet.
I also offered Sutton & Cheam as an LD gain at 11/10. The Survation MRP has the LDs at 31.1% and the Conservatives at 25.7%. The LDs are now 10/11 with the Conservatives at 11/10 so I might just be on the right side of that one.
Closer to home (well, my home) the MRP for East Ham has Labour down to 65% and the Conservatives at 10.6% with a real scrap on for third between the Greens, Reform and the Newham Indpendents.
I have Labour friends in Croydon East - they are quietly confident though taking no chances.
At home I usually prefer wine (or whisky) but football always feels like I should have beer. I’m on the fence now, but either way you have made me thirsty!
Agree with beers for sport accompaniment. I am getting slightly concerned I’m going to run out of beers and end up on wine by the time of the England game starting. I accidentally started too early. Bloody 8pm kick offs.
Nip to the corner shop now before kick off, or you’ll be on the weird green liquor you once bought on holiday by half time.
The bigger question is drinks for election night. Some decent wine first, then a bottle of English sparkling from a Lib Dem target constituency ready and chilled but only opened if we beat 30 seats. Otherwise it’s gin.
I start with a decent bottle of red, and get the whisky out for the Scottish seats. Cheese and charcuterie of course.
I'm starting the night playing Poker, which will pause for the exit poll, which will include beer. after the poker finishes the rest of the night will be English Whiskey interleaved with Coffees.
Comments
But how can this go on for hours? If as local police you don't know who the beast is likely to belong to, you are not doing your job, but anyway you can zoom in on its eartag and ask DEFRA whose it is and get the farmer to sort it.
This we could be taking about the most successful party in British politics being reduced a single taxi for all their MPs ..but its all round boredom.
This will go on until the centre right reunites, just as Thatcher dominated when the SDP split the centre left.
Every time I go to purchase groceries I’m going to stand on one leg and wiggle my left elbow around, in some weird way, slightly bodging other shoppers, who will move away nervously, so that we don’t forget the Armenians. Yes, if I do it alone, it will look mad and foolish, and frankly pointless, but if everyone in Britain does this we may retrieve the dire situation in Nagorno-Karabagh
After that I’m going to pretend to be deaf for three hours, on Thursdays, for Sudan
https://youtu.be/JLYYui4GJuk?si=RFG5sCXKuQH0ebBo
It’s not the business of local councils to be in the game of income redistribution.
MisterBedford is an interesting new addition to the comments section.
Lab 10.7 million, Con 8.4 million.
Given that Corbyn got 10.3 million last time, Starmer ought to be able to beat Blair's 2001 score. And Rishi would be doing well to do "as well" as Hague.
(Once more with feeling: there's no point enticing lots of people to vote for you if you also motivate lots of people to vote against you.)
I’m not sure we won’t find Trump quite hawkish too, as we get closer to election day. In fact my worry with him isn’t that he’s a devious Russian agent, it’s that his opinions are unpredictable and swing wildly, and we could end up fighting WWIII because Putin insulted his hair.
Same in my industry - software development. It’s being used as a somewhat improved code completion tool. Once you beyond doing some simple functions it rapidly becomes a tool for generating code that does the wrong thing.
For soft stuff it is interesting - ask it what topics are missing in an essay, for example.
There will probably be an arms race to generate vast piles of documents, in certain jobs - and to read them and condense them on the other end.
https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1802383539226218749?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
Fascist, flirty and fun
Be still my beating heart. And we get keir bloody starmer. Sigh
I think turnout is going to be absolutely shocking. I'm having a nibble at under 60%.
I also think turnout filters on polling are way off as a result, but I'm not sure what effect that would have.
*) Where accuracy matters, AI will be problematic.
*) Where privacy matters, AI will be problematic. (though that horse has already bolted...)
*) Many documents are WORN (Write Once, Read Never). They never get to the read-and-condense stage.
2) yup
3) the idea is that AI reading will try and help with the “bury the truth in the bullshit heap” tactic. The bullshit heaps will just expand in size to match.
https://x.com/OliverKay/status/1802391241235046877
@OliverKay
For any England or Serbia fans who are still in the middle of Gelsenkirchen (or worse still not there yet), I’d recommend you set off on foot if you can.
It’s about three miles but the public transport situation is a total mess #ENGSER
https://x.com/OliverKay/status/1802392659736314188
@OliverKay
Agree. It’s been really bad! Nothing like this in 2006
Maybe it's not just Britain where everything is falling apart.
To be clear; Trump doesn't care about Donbass. Or any other part of Ukraine. Or any other part of Europe. Or, in my view, about America. Trump only cares about Trump. And arse-lickers still want to support the guy.
Something like that.
AI can be done entirely privately. Of course you don't submit private data to the ChatGPT site, but that's not the only way of doing AI.
I’m not a mod but please could we try and be a bit nicer to one another?
xx
I'm an artist, who works mostly designing book covers, and sadly that's something that AI finds far too easy.
Is it better to want peace but take actions that create war, or to want war but take actions that create peace?
The person creating war is Putin. We have two choices: to back the countries facing Putin's fascist imperialism, or cave into it - wherever that leads.
You can only talk about 'peace' with people who want peace. Putin's latest so-called 'ceasefire' proposal shows that he is utterly uninterested in anything approaching peace. It is basically: "Give me what I want, and leave yourself defenceless for the future."
Plus tip top Moldovan wine and a massive England win in the footy for sure. Bliss
Lib Dems will be second here.
A US president who cares only about himself and his own legacy could nevertheless be the best person for the job.
Towers of Trebizond well worth a read BTW.
"This flushes out one of the other issues. Those with children with disabilities who are honest and play by the rules have all sorts of difficulties.
Nasty pieces of work who know how to game the system and are quite unpleasant if resisted generally get their way as doctors/assessors etc are terrified of being thrown to the wolves if a complaint is made and don't want the hassle. Especially if an -ism is involved."
Thats how you end up with half a class/ a quarter of the school on Send, as reported by another correspondent upthread.
I don't entirely blame the cheaters. Dangle £5k a year in front of people who are never going to get more than a McJob and it is fairly obvious what will happen.
"The number of students on these [Send] plans has doubled from 105,000 eight years ago to 230,000 in 2023."
"Modelling within the report predicts that the costs of providing SEND school transport will almost triple over a decade – from £397m in 2018/19 to £1.125bn in 2027/28"
Are you suggesting child disabilities have actually doubled in eight years?
https://www.countycouncilsnetwork.org.uk/spiralling-send-transport-budgets-threaten-financial-sustainability-of-englands-largest-councils-report-reveals/
Blame the messenger if you like, but don't be surprised, that if nothing is done about what amounts to institutionalised corruption and the situation continues to suck in ever more money, if someone with an agenda similar to Javier Milei is the next Farage in a few years.
Will Boris Johnson ever get the blame that he deserves for what has happened to the Tory party? I suspect not.
I am going to need a new party.
Exclusive from @MaxKendix
Reform candidate standing in Kemi Badenoch's constituency says he will resign after comments emerged in which he called on people to vote for BNP
Grant StClair-Armstrong is standing against Badenoch in North West Essex
In 2010 he said 'I could weep now, every time I pick up a British newspaper and read the latest about the state of the UK. No doubt, Enoch Powell would be doing the same if he was alive. My solution … vote BNP!'
StClair-Armstrong told The Times: 'I’ve got no excuses for that. I think they’re a disgusting party. I don’t like the English Defence League. I don’t like them'
https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1802396814647164943
https://amp.theguardian.com/artanddesign/article/2024/jun/17/stephen-fry-parthenon-marbles-british-museum-returned-greece
Stephen Fry is bang on the money.
Lewes is probably the best realistic Lib Dem target from the perspective of viticulture. It boasts the huge Rathfinny estate, legendary Breaky Bottom, Plumpton which is the UK’s only winemaking college, Ridgeview (I think), Everflyt, and several others. I think that’s where I’ll focus my purchases for the 4th.
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/02/18/i-agree-with-david-gauke/
Books (I predict) will do fine. I hope the same can be said for proper covers.
The latest UK-Elect General Election forecst has now been released at https://www.ukelect.co.uk/HTML/forecasts/20240616ForecastUK.html
It shows Labour 427 seats, Conservative 134, Liberal Democrat 48, and SNP 18, giving an overall Labour majority of 206.
That forecast uses the current default settings, fairly similar to those used for reasonably accurate forecasts in the past, using the actual candidate list and taking some account of incumbency and tactical voting. To be honest, though, it is very easy to produce a range of results just by adjusting the algorithm slightly, ranging from similar to most MRP polls (Con seats 83) through to similar to UNS (Con seats 175). Which is correct in the current political circumstances? After some detailed research, and reading some of the experts in the field - I wish I knew!
Another form of such corruption is the recipients of housing benefit (local housing allowance it is called now I think)
The recipients are not the people who everyone thinks are recipients (ie tenants), they are just the handlers.
The recipients are the landlords. No means test for them, just a lobby to raise housing allowance.
That lobby includes those landlords who do not have "benefits" tenants as any raise in housing allorance boosts rental levels throughout the market (as does allowing more immigration than properties being built to house the unfortunate incomers)
"A total of 83 Tories have declared they received the sizeable rental payments since the last election in December 2019, along with 18 Labour MPs, four Liberal Democrats and one member of the SNP"
https://news.sky.com/story/more-than-100-mps-earn-over-10-000-a-year-as-landlords-13121633.
As you say, follow the money.
Fortunately for the free world, Putin's military still was not ready in 2022.
Yeah the weather is quite shit for much of the year, but still, better than NW Europe
And in summer it’s warm and sunny with the odd shower. And surely there is tons of history. And still - no one goes there. Superb!
As Trump himself admitted, Putin didn't 50% believe it, not even 10%; he maybe 5% believed it. But that was enough.
Would YOU put Trump past doing that?
Reform null points I see.
Patel or Badenoch as leader means Farage is brought into the Tory party which is a big fucking red line for me.
Not even Dave or George could persuade me to stay.
Back to politics and betting for a moment. Those who recall my epic "London Falling" thread from a couple of weeks back my recall I offered these as attractive bets for the election:
Harrow East – CON 9/4
Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner – CON 4/5
Bromley & Biggin Hill – CON 11/8
Croydon East – CON 10/1
Croydon South – CON 2/1
Romford – CON 6/4
In the light of some comments expressing the view the Conservatives may not do too badly in Outer London compared with other areas, I thought I'd see what I was standing in against the latest Survation MRP.
Harrow East - Lab 41.4%, Con 38.6% - Conservatives out to 5/2 but looks a decent bet.
Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner - Lab 34.6%, Con 34.2% - Conservatives still 4/5, Labour 10/11 so the bookies taking no chances.
Bromley & Biggin Hill Lab 36.8%., Con 28.8% - Conservatives still 11/8 but I may be on the wrong side of the bet.
Croydon East Lab 46.6%, Con 26.2% - Conservatives still 10/1. The humble pie is in the oven and cooking slowly but I will be astonished if Labour win this by 20 points.
Croydon South Lab 46.7%, Con 31.4% - Conservatives now 5/2. Rather like Harrow East, I don't believe the MRP but as I've said on here more than once just before you don't believe or can conceive of something happening doesn't mean it can't happen.
Romford Lab 36.3%, Con 35% - Conservatives 6/4 and I'm still happy with the bet.
I also offered Sutton & Cheam as an LD gain at 11/10. The Survation MRP has the LDs at 31.1% and the Conservatives at 25.7%. The LDs are now 10/11 with the Conservatives at 11/10 so I might just be on the right side of that one.
Closer to home (well, my home) the MRP for East Ham has Labour down to 65% and the Conservatives at 10.6% with a real scrap on for third between the Greens, Reform and the Newham Indpendents.
The reasons I normally vote Tory no longer exist.
Better to start again with another centre right alternative
Please. We need the support! 👍
To lighten the mood here’s a picture of our new rescue, Rocko, and the torso of my human alter ego.
Ipswich were voted into the Football League at Gillingham’s expense back in the day which is why I’ve kept my allegiance quiet in this part of the world.