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Into the Great Wide Yonder – politicalbetting.com
Into the Great Wide Yonder – politicalbetting.com
So for a bit of fun, I decided to look at the Survation MRP polling conducted between 31st May and 13th June. This showed that all but 72 Tory MPs would lose their seats and I wondered what the make up of the Tory party would look like after the election if this prediction came true.
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You can still get 1/3 from Ladbrokes on the Tories holding Sevenoaks. Surely your life saving should be heading their way? I have £100 on already.
There are several seats on that list where the clear challenge comes from the Lib Dem candidate, I think.
As an example... North Devon.
The Tories could do far worse, and probably will, but worth a few bob.
As I said on the previous thread of the survivors above I tip the rump of more southern Tory MPs remaining to put Tugendhat and Barclay to the members, with Barclay winning and becoming Leader of the Opposition to the Starmer government.
Should be pointed out Opinium last night still gives the Tories 104 seats, so slightly better than Survation but not much better. Pleased to see Brentwood and Ongar and Epping Forest at least stay blue though with both the Survation MRP above and Opinium
https://x.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1802053423900065820?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=23&LAB=40&LIB=12&Reform=14&Green=7&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=15.2&SCOTLAB=36.7&SCOTLIB=6.9&SCOTReform=3.2&SCOTGreen=2.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=33.1&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/16/general-election-latest-news-2024/
I don’t know enough about the individuals here to guess which group would be in the ascendant though.
Mid Dorset and North Poole meanwhile went LD in 2001 but is projected to stay Tory even now too
IanB2 said:
» show previous quotes
The LibDems are alive to the fact that despite the likes of Big_G spending six months wasting our time reading his daily posts about how he wasn’t going to vote Tory, just like he did throughout 2019, Mrs_G had him down as a Tory voter from the start, and clearly she’s the one that gets to fill in their ballot papers.
And people here have the cheek to make caustic comments about postal votes in Tower Hamlets!
Can we give Mrs_G an account here?
Big_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,971
I am saddened that you have taken my wife and my decision to vote for the conservative in our postal vote despite an explanation of the thought and reasons and no doubt you do not like that my wife considers Davey a ' clown' and is unimpressed with his antics and his role in the PO enquiry not least as she was a customer of Alan Bates
You twist around on 2019 but fail to recognise I did not vote for Johnson as leader and I did have a vote as I was a member at the time, but of course I voted for the party v Corbyn
You need to understand that my wife and I utterly condemn Farage and it is important for all conservatives who want a one nation party to support the party on the 4th July to ensure the total numbers of votes exceed Reform
My explanation was endorsed by @Heathener and others on here so maybe you need to accept that in some families, and especially mine where my wife and I have just celebrated 60 years of marriage , that we do discuss issues and decide together how we deal with them
It's been suggested to me that a lot of the survivors will have been selected and positioned in ultra safe seats to try to prevent a hard right supremacy (which, as a first step, would require both leading candidates offered to the fossil membership in the leader ballot NOT to be Suella or some such similar figure.) That, in turn, would imply the start of a march back to a more orthodox small-c conservative offering, and a strong rejection of any accommodation with Reform. What do we think of that?
https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-ukraine-russia-war-threatens-cut-aid-election-2024/
So one of the reasons for working out this list was to get some insight from the PB brains trust about what direction they think the Parliamentary Tory party might drift/lurch/stagger after the election.
Whilst some of the obvious RWNs* like Patel and Braverman are still there, it looks like the heart of the ERG faction has been ripped out. Truss, JRM and François are all gone along with dozens of their colleagues.
But what of those who remain? Any thoughts on direction from looking at that list?
*Right Wing Nutters
Oh and thanks for posting TSE.
Various left-wingere cheering Council Tax rises.
That's what happens if Labour get in.
A vote for Labour is a vote for your Council Tax bill going up.
I actually support extending the ranges and at present the Welsh Labour government are proceeding with just that and using drones to assess people's land and gardens
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cglp252kyj0o
I'd think it's only needed if there is some information laid about very recent developments.
Nasty. Really nasty.
There are hundreds of thousands of BigGs the length and breadth of this island. It’s why the Tories will end up with way more seats than commonly supposed.
And I’m not cheering more council tax. I’m saying it is a regrettable necessity given many years of utter Tory mismanagement and waste.
One thing I would be interested in knowing is whether they have sorted out the legal basis for this given it is illegal to fly drones close to properties or point cameras at properties from drones without permission from the owner.
Not sure if this counts as 'widely reported' but the body of the article mentions drones as well as satellites.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/05/11/welsh-labour-to-hike-council-tax-by-spying-on-homeowners/
There's also a good argument for substantially raising the existing 5% cap on annual Council Tax rises and letting authorities impose painful hikes that will allow them to avoid becoming statutory only providers, or slide into outright insolvency. That, or you admit the need for Whitehall to take on the immense burden of social care by centralising its provision or doling out a lot more money in grants.
The only other choice is to remove the legal obligation to provide social care, and abandon neglected children and the dependent elderly to survive on charity or to rot, in order to save money.
Have you a better suggestion for how to raise enough money to pay for everything or, alternatively, what not to fund anymore? We've already had a decade and a half of cuts, stagnant or declining real incomes for most people under 65, and repeated economic shocks. There are no easy choices left.
A rampaging group of English hooligans have attacked a bar where Serbia supporters were drinking before the Serbia v England game at Euro 2024.
Report by @danielboffey on a predictably depressing turn of events in Gelsenkirchen.
https://x.com/SachinNakrani/status/1802351512271700406
It's also the case that anybody on here who publicly announces who they (and their spouse) are going to vote for is inviting comment.
Thank-you for the header, Mr Tyndall. I'll keep quiet on this, as I'm not especially well informed on the comparatives and superlatives of nuttiness amongst likely rump Conservative MPs.
I wonder if they would take Lee Anderson back?
Big Gs commentary is very valuable. Take note and bet accordingly (but not necessarily on a Lib Dem Blue Wall Massacre).
Edit: have been able to read it on a second try. NO MENTION OF DRONES OR SUCH SPECIFIC INTRUSION. It's all about systematic checking of what is evidently standard general commercial air photography. No dsifferent from looking at the OS map whcih is made by the same means.
'The Telegraph can now reveal the data that is currently being gathered by the Valuation Office, where officials are building an “automated valuation model” to prepare up-to-date values for all of the 1.5 million homes in Wales.
As part of this model, they are using “aerial and street view photography” in order to verify the size of houses and gardens.'
Good luck getting a shadow cabinet and shadow junior ministers out of that to hold the government to account.
Also they will struggle to fill the select committees, several of which the Tories should be chair of.
(By Bill Cash ex-MP)
Wales Labour has hammered Council tax at 5% for years and more recently at plus 10.1% and 9.77% this year
‘We are a big tent..’
There are lots of obvious reasons for all of this. The use of drones for spying on people in their own homes for sordid purposes is a real thing and something that causes lots of complaints to the police.
We have a dripping wet centrist candidate in our constituency.
Were it someone like Mogg, then I might but so determined am I for Onenation Delenda Est, I will vote tactically for Labour while holding my nose if it comes to it.
https://archive.ph/frA7c
Says it's a mix of satellite and plane and the odd drone and balloon
Albeit a number of redwall and Leave seats Boris would have held will go Labour under Rishi
https://x.com/RealAlbanianPat/status/1802330370492231765
What is it about extremely high and incongruous migration, NIMBYism, and unprecedented housing, rental, and tax hikes that voters don't like?