I am impressed that you posted that before William Glenn did.
Yes, clearly Trump is serious about pushing for a swift Ukrainian victory. If he said the opposite it would create complacency among Ukraine's European allies and give Russia an opportunity.
Trump is pushing for a swift Ukranian victory? What brings you to that interpretation?
What is the effect of his words if not to push European countries to pull their finger out and reduce dependence on the US?
An alternative theory suggests Trump is a humongous turd who will do his best to see Ukraine defeated. This is to return the favour to his friend Vladimir for his help in subverting the American political system to Trump's personal benefit.
You mean a conspiracy theory?
The conspiracy theory that he is telling the truth about aid to Ukraine? Okay...
I am impressed that you posted that before William Glenn did.
Yes, clearly Trump is serious about pushing for a swift Ukrainian victory. If he said the opposite it would create complacency among Ukraine's European allies and give Russia an opportunity.
Trump is pushing for a swift Ukranian victory? What brings you to that interpretation?
What is the effect of his words if not to push European countries to pull their finger out and reduce dependence on the US?
An alternative theory suggests Trump is a humongous turd who will do his best to see Ukraine defeated. This is to return the favour to his friend Vladimir for his help in subverting the American political system to Trump's personal benefit.
Second election leaflet of the campaign! And it’s from Reform UK. Who says they have no ground game?
Is it the free election post, posted and paid for, or hand delivered. They will be mad not to do the former, although it will be interesting to see if they get their act together to address different leaflets to different individuals in the house or just go for 1 leaflet per house. If they do bugger all else I don't know whether they could do a paid for leaflet delivery within expenses. I will be amazed if they can do much hand delivery by activists.
On a Sunday afternoon, I presume it’s hand delivered.
Lots of people giving @Big_G_NorthWales a hard time because he's voting Tory.
Nasty. Really nasty.
I had this yesterday from some quarters, despite an explanation which @Heathener and others accepted and it seems that for some discussing your voting intention with the person you have been married to for 60 years is outrageous, but for me we had quite a comprehensive discussion and came to our conclusion as the last thing we want is a Farage led conservative party and it will not prevent Starmer being PM on the 5th July
On the contrary, multiplied by the hundreds of thousands of voters who will do the same, it could bring Sunak back to 31, 32% on the day. Labour down to about 35%, delivering most-seats and a minority government for Sunak and his successor.
Oh yes, I’d love to see Sunak form a minority Govt. Just for the absolute Lolz.
They can laugh all they want. But if the 2019 Tories come back like our friend here, Sunak can win 260 seats and coalesce with red wall Reform and the DUP while Starmer loses all momentum and authority to form a government.
Are these not Tory MPs and the extent to which they are threatened by a Labour candidate?
There are several seats on that list where the clear challenge comes from the Lib Dem candidate, I think.
As an example... North Devon.
Yep. The list is just the survivors. I have not differentiated the threats.
Gosh. I agree with @ClippP . If that is a survivors list (of only 72) I am surprised by some it contains. Ones that immediately spring out are Surrey Heath, Tunbridge Wells, North Devon, Maidenhead, Eastleigh, and probably others I have no knowledge of.
All LD target seats, those are the types of largely bluewall seats Rishi probably saves for the Tories (as well as Chelsea and Fulham where Hands projected to cling on), had Boris and Truss still been Conservative leader they would likely have gone yellow.
Albeit a number of redwall and Leave seats Boris would have held will go Labour under Rishi
I don't disagree with your analysis, but are these really in the safest 72 Tory seats? Surely not.
One thing that isn't discussed enough if the Tories become the official opposition with 72 MPs then democracy is going to struggle.
Good luck getting a shadow cabinet and shadow junior ministers out of that to hold the government to account.
Also they will struggle to fill the select committees, several of which the Tories should be chair of.
And they're struggling just on seat count - when you actually look at the list a large amount of them are far over the hill and should not not be involved in front line politics or just a bit too woo woo for this decade. Then throw in the vicious power struggle between the various sub groups that will break out.
One thing that isn't discussed enough if the Tories become the official opposition with 72 MPs then democracy is going to struggle.
Good luck getting a shadow cabinet and shadow junior ministers out of that to hold the government to account.
Also they will struggle to fill the select committees, several of which the Tories should be chair of.
And they're struggling just on seat count - when you actually look at the list a large amount of them are far over the hill and should not not be involved in front line politics or just a bit too woo woo for this decade. Then throw in the vicious power struggle between the various sub groups that will break out.
LOL. Sorry, I have visions of the Tories being reduced to one MP who then has a fight with themselves a la Fight Club over whch direction they should go.
I am impressed that you posted that before William Glenn did.
Yes, clearly Trump is serious about pushing for a swift Ukrainian victory. If he said the opposite it would create complacency among Ukraine's European allies and give Russia an opportunity.
If Trump wins in November and Le Pen (or Melenchon) wins in 2027 with a GOP controlled Congress and RN led National Assembly hard to see how Zelensky isn't forced to do a deal with Putin unless Germany, Poland, Canada, Italy and the UK massively increase further their aid and arms sent to Ukraine.
It is therefore vital for those wanting a free Ukraine that Biden is re elected and Macron's party recovers in France
Lots of people giving @Big_G_NorthWales a hard time because he's voting Tory.
Nasty. Really nasty.
It really hasn't been nasty at all - a bit of gentle teasing, that's all. Most of us have a lot of time for Big G's honesty and have enjoyed his tortuous convolutions to decide what we probably thought he would do all the time.
It's also the case that anybody on here who publicly announces who they (and their spouse) are going to vote for is inviting comment.
Site is full of snowflakes, least thing said and their handbags are trembling.
The introduction of more council tax bands would not be a total surprise and it might be our fault. PB has previously discussed the much higher property taxes in the land of the free, and the difficulty of taking expensive homes out of the country.
Council tax was flawed from it's introduction as it did not have enough and fairer higher ranges
I actually support extending the ranges and at present the Welsh Labour government are proceeding with just that and using drones to assess people's land and gardens
Can't read i t, but the bit I can see is MAYBE and IN THE FUTURE and SATELLITES which is probably a misunderstanding of Google "Satellite View" (which is taken from aircraft) but could just be the absolutely normal commercial databases which ANY firm can buy if they want, whether taken from aircraft or satellites.
Edit: have been able to read it on a second try. NO MENTION OF DRONES OR SUCH SPECIFIC INTRUSION. It's all about systematic checking of what is evidently standard general commercial air photography. No dsifferent from looking at the OS map whcih is made by the same means.
'The Telegraph can now reveal the data that is currently being gathered by the Valuation Office, where officials are building an “automated valuation model” to prepare up-to-date values for all of the 1.5 million homes in Wales.
As part of this model, they are using “aerial and street view photography” in order to verify the size of houses and gardens.'
I am impressed that you posted that before William Glenn did.
Yes, clearly Trump is serious about pushing for a swift Ukrainian victory. If he said the opposite it would create complacency among Ukraine's European allies and give Russia an opportunity.
Trump is pushing for a swift Ukranian victory? What brings you to that interpretation?
What is the effect of his words if not to push European countries to pull their finger out and reduce dependence on the US?
An alternative theory suggests Trump is a humongous turd who will do his best to see Ukraine defeated. This is to return the favour to his friend Vladimir for his help in subverting the American political system to Trump's personal benefit.
You mean a conspiracy theory?
More like Occam’s razor.
He has consistently pushed Europe to spend more on defence and stop giving money to Russia.
The introduction of more council tax bands would not be a total surprise and it might be our fault. PB has previously discussed the much higher property taxes in the land of the free, and the difficulty of taking expensive homes out of the country.
Council tax was flawed from it's introduction as it did not have enough and fairer higher ranges
I actually support extending the ranges and at present the Welsh Labour government are proceeding with just that and using drones to assess people's land and gardens
Can't read i t, but the bit I can see is MAYBE and IN THE FUTURE and SATELLITES which is probably a misunderstanding of Google "Satellite View" (which is taken from aircraft) but could just be the absolutely normal commercial databases which ANY firm can buy if they want, whether taken from aircraft or satellites.
Edit: have been able to read it on a second try. NO MENTION OF DRONES OR SUCH SPECIFIC INTRUSION. It's all about systematic checking of what is evidently standard general commercial air photography. No dsifferent from looking at the OS map whcih is made by the same means.
'The Telegraph can now reveal the data that is currently being gathered by the Valuation Office, where officials are building an “automated valuation model” to prepare up-to-date values for all of the 1.5 million homes in Wales.
As part of this model, they are using “aerial and street view photography” in order to verify the size of houses and gardens.'
Says it's a mix of satellite and plane and the odd drone and balloon
Doesn't even mention drones or balloons. And that isn't the Welsh Gmt doing the photography. I think someone's been winding Big G up.
Also: looking at maps is absolutely normal for a land tax revaluation. The Inland Revenue used the best technology of the day - 25" to 1 mile OS maps - as a starting point for the great revaluation of c. 1910 in Scotland (at least): the maps and notebooks are still a huge local history resource today. That modern maps are partly derived from satellites is incidental.
The thing that has put a strain on our councils finances in recent years is a tripling of children diagnosed with special needs which entitles them to free transport to school and accompanying vast taxi bill.
This interestingly started a few years after the ending of tax credits for more than two children unless one has a disability in which case they stay and there is a £3k disabled child allowance.
Any comment on that line makes you look like you want to put people in wheelchairs in workhouses, but a huge number of them have things like ADHD which are subjective diagnosis, not mobility affecting (and very lucrative tax credit/universal credit wise).
It is the sort of thing that the Tories have utterly failed to grasp.
Questions: Who is diagnosing them, how much are they paid. Why are taxi companies being enriched, what links to councillors do they have, why can't councils hire buses etc. etc.
IanB2 said: » show previous quotes The LibDems are alive to the fact that despite the likes of Big_G spending six months wasting our time reading his daily posts about how he wasn’t going to vote Tory, just like he did throughout 2019, Mrs_G had him down as a Tory voter from the start, and clearly she’s the one that gets to fill in their ballot papers.
And people here have the cheek to make caustic comments about postal votes in Tower Hamlets!
Can we give Mrs_G an account here?
Big_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,971
I am saddened that you have taken my wife and my decision to vote for the conservative in our postal vote despite an explanation of the thought and reasons and no doubt you do not like that my wife considers Davey a ' clown' and is unimpressed with his antics and his role in the PO enquiry not least as she was a customer of Alan Bates
You twist around on 2019 but fail to recognise I did not vote for Johnson as leader and I did have a vote as I was a member at the time, but of course I voted for the party v Corbyn
You need to understand that my wife and I utterly condemn Farage and it is important for all conservatives who want a one nation party to support the party on the 4th July to ensure the total numbers of votes exceed Reform
My explanation was endorsed by @Heathener and others on here so maybe you need to accept that in some families, and especially mine where my wife and I have just celebrated 60 years of marriage , that we do discuss issues and decide together how we deal with them
Just accept that your credibility here is shot.
I have no idea why you are taking this so badly, but to be honest no amount of criticism will prevent me posting as honestly as I can and if you do not like it then that is a matter for you
You’ve made a complete tit of yourself, two elections running. Even the more charitable amongst us can see that, very clearly.
Not sure why you are taking such an obnoxious line over this mate. It is not your normal style. I fear you might have caught Casino's malady.
He's just upset someone has left the Yellow Peril who he thought was a convert he'd got excited about.
I'm fine. Quite enjoying myself, actually.
The mob on here (not you) have led to several esteemed below the line posters permanently leaving the site - many of whom have privately got in contact with me, and it's pissed me off - and I've worked out being reasonable achieves nothing so I simply match them now with a corresponding level of aggression, and quite frankly they often deserve it.
What's Farage's position on this? Is he pro-Putin still?
'Nigel Farage has described Adolf Hitler as “hypnotic in a very dangerous way” after reiterating his admiration for Vladimir Putin as a “political operator”.
The Reform UK leader offered his view on the public speaking abilities of Nazi Germany dictator Hitler when asked about him during a live BBC phone-in.
He also suggested Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelensky should enter negotiations with Russia, although he acknowledged Kyiv’s Western allies will continue support to support them.
The introduction of more council tax bands would not be a total surprise and it might be our fault. PB has previously discussed the much higher property taxes in the land of the free, and the difficulty of taking expensive homes out of the country.
Council tax was flawed from it's introduction as it did not have enough and fairer higher ranges
I actually support extending the ranges and at present the Welsh Labour government are proceeding with just that and using drones to assess people's land and gardens
Can't read i t, but the bit I can see is MAYBE and IN THE FUTURE and SATELLITES which is probably a misunderstanding of Google "Satellite View" (which is taken from aircraft) but could just be the absolutely normal commercial databases which ANY firm can buy if they want, whether taken from aircraft or satellites.
Edit: have been able to read it on a second try. NO MENTION OF DRONES OR SUCH SPECIFIC INTRUSION. It's all about systematic checking of what is evidently standard general commercial air photography. No dsifferent from looking at the OS map whcih is made by the same means.
'The Telegraph can now reveal the data that is currently being gathered by the Valuation Office, where officials are building an “automated valuation model” to prepare up-to-date values for all of the 1.5 million homes in Wales.
As part of this model, they are using “aerial and street view photography” in order to verify the size of houses and gardens.'
Says it's a mix of satellite and plane and the odd drone and balloon
Doesn't even mention drones or balloons. And that isn't the Welsh Gmt doing the photography. I think someone's been winding Big G up.
But, but, but it was a Welsh Government drone that spied through Big G’s window and spotted him putting an X against the Tory on his ballot paper!
I doubt it very much [irony noted, obvs] - got better things to spend their money on than look at specific properties, as opposed to high-altitude general survey work. Which already exists commercially and from the OS.
"Drones" tagreting individual properties don't make sense at all except for specific fraud investigations - in which case there are legal powers. (Which would answer the very reasonable point RT makes.)
A vote for Labour is a vote for your Council Tax bill going up.
I am against the SNP’s policy of freezing Council Tax. When services are being hollowed out, libraries and leisure centres closed, Social Services cut to the bone and roads not being repaired, Councils desperately need more money. Others may disat gree.
Fairlie, if it was evn jsut expensive then I would agree, but for £3300 a year I get teh square root of F all apart from my bins every 3 weeks and lots of potholes. WTF do they do with all the money. Do you know who funds the ones on benefits/UC that get theirs paid for them, is it Holyrood , council or Westminster.
IanB2 said: » show previous quotes The LibDems are alive to the fact that despite the likes of Big_G spending six months wasting our time reading his daily posts about how he wasn’t going to vote Tory, just like he did throughout 2019, Mrs_G had him down as a Tory voter from the start, and clearly she’s the one that gets to fill in their ballot papers.
And people here have the cheek to make caustic comments about postal votes in Tower Hamlets!
Can we give Mrs_G an account here?
Big_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,971
I am saddened that you have taken my wife and my decision to vote for the conservative in our postal vote despite an explanation of the thought and reasons and no doubt you do not like that my wife considers Davey a ' clown' and is unimpressed with his antics and his role in the PO enquiry not least as she was a customer of Alan Bates
You twist around on 2019 but fail to recognise I did not vote for Johnson as leader and I did have a vote as I was a member at the time, but of course I voted for the party v Corbyn
You need to understand that my wife and I utterly condemn Farage and it is important for all conservatives who want a one nation party to support the party on the 4th July to ensure the total numbers of votes exceed Reform
My explanation was endorsed by @Heathener and others on here so maybe you need to accept that in some families, and especially mine where my wife and I have just celebrated 60 years of marriage , that we do discuss issues and decide together how we deal with them
Just accept that your credibility here is shot.
I have no idea why you are taking this so badly, but to be honest no amount of criticism will prevent me posting as honestly as I can and if you do not like it then that is a matter for you
You’ve made a complete tit of yourself, two elections running. Even the more charitable amongst us can see that, very clearly.
Not sure why you are taking such an obnoxious line over this mate. It is not your normal style. I fear you might have caught Casino's malady.
He's just upset someone has left the Yellow Peril who he thought was a convert he'd got excited about.
I'm fine. Quite enjoying myself, actually.
The mob on here (not you) have led to several esteemed below the line posters permanently leaving the site - many of whom have privately got in contact with me, and it's pissed me off - and I've worked out being reasonable achieves nothing so I simply match them now with a corresponding level of aggression, and quite frankly they often deserve it.
In later years, after the Libdems got shafted in 2015 I think OGH (to some extent understandably) rather inuldged the Libdems and some of their cheerleaders do tend to treat the place as if it is LibDem Home.
The thing that has put a strain on our councils finances in recent years is a tripling of children diagnosed with special needs which entitles them to free transport to school and accompanying vast taxi bill.
This interestingly started a few years after the ending of tax credits for more than two children unless one has a disability in which case they stay and there is a £3k disabled child allowance.
Any comment on that line makes you look like you want to put people in wheelchairs in workhouses, but a huge number of them have things like ADHD which are subjective diagnosis, not mobility affecting (and very lucrative tax credit/universal credit wise).
It is the sort of thing that the Tories have utterly failed to grasp.
Questions: Who is diagnosing them, how much are they paid. Why are taxi companies being enriched, what links to councillors do they have, why can't councils hire buses etc. etc.
Nope the killer bit is adult social care - special needs is very secondary to that
So one of the reasons for working out this list was to get some insight from the PB brains trust about what direction they think the Parliamentary Tory party might drift/lurch/stagger after the election.
Whilst some of the obvious RWNs* like Patel and Braverman are still there, it looks like the heart of the ERG faction has been ripped out. Truss, JRM and François are all gone along with dozens of their colleagues.
But what of those who remain? Any thoughts on direction from looking at that list?
*Right Wing Nutters
Oh and thanks for posting TSE.
My goodness, you are right, even Truss loses her Norfolk SW seat with the Survation MRP, albeit Rishi survives and holds Richmond and Northallerton.
'Leftwingers with fizz, were you still up for Liz?'
The introduction of more council tax bands would not be a total surprise and it might be our fault. PB has previously discussed the much higher property taxes in the land of the free, and the difficulty of taking expensive homes out of the country.
Council tax was flawed from it's introduction as it did not have enough and fairer higher ranges
I actually support extending the ranges and at present the Welsh Labour government are proceeding with just that and using drones to assess people's land and gardens
Drones?! They don't need to do that with the Ordnance Survey mapping service and Google/Bing websites plus Land Registry!
I'd think it's only needed if there is some information laid about very recent developments.
When you look at the list of things they are including in their assessments - a lot of which are not likely to be identifiable from maps - you can see wht the Welsh Stasi are using drones.
One thing I would be interested in knowing is whether they have sorted out the legal basis for this given it is illegal to fly drones close to properties or point cameras at properties from drones without permission from the owner.
Air photography is legal. And there are several free or paid for services. Indeed the OS service is a permanently updated online database rather than discrete map sheets.
Indeed. But the rules behind drone usage are extremely tight as I know from using them for archaeology. If I want to do a building survey for example I have to make sure I have the written permission from all neighbouring porperties which might be imaged in the survey.
There are lots of obvious reasons for all of this. The use of drones for spying on people in their own homes for sordid purposes is a real thing and something that causes lots of complaints to the police.
That's a great example of the sort of nonsense that enshitifies everyones' life for no benefit. The only people who will follow that procedure are the ones doing nothing wrong, whereas the wrong-uns will just fly their drone out to perv on people without getting pemission and will never get caught. Seems like about 90% of modern life in Britain consist of similar traps that inconvenience compliant people while letting the scum go on unencumbered (think the don't assault staff signs everywhere, security packages in supermarkets, police response etc).
I am impressed that you posted that before William Glenn did.
Yes, clearly Trump is serious about pushing for a swift Ukrainian victory. If he said the opposite it would create complacency among Ukraine's European allies and give Russia an opportunity.
Trump is pushing for a swift Ukranian victory? What brings you to that interpretation?
What is the effect of his words if not to push European countries to pull their finger out and reduce dependence on the US?
An alternative theory suggests Trump is a humongous turd who will do his best to see Ukraine defeated. This is to return the favour to his friend Vladimir for his help in subverting the American political system to Trump's personal benefit.
You mean a conspiracy theory?
A conspiracy theory that a deliberate policy to starve Ukraine of the means to avoid defeat could be a deliberate policy to ensure defeat?
The thing that has put a strain on our councils finances in recent years is a tripling of children diagnosed with special needs which entitles them to free transport to school and accompanying vast taxi bill.
This interestingly started a few years after the ending of tax credits for more than two children unless one has a disability in which case they stay and there is a £3k disabled child allowance.
Any comment on that line makes you look like you want to put people in wheelchairs in workhouses, but a huge number of them have things like ADHD which are subjective diagnosis, not mobility affecting (and very lucrative tax credit/universal credit wise).
It is the sort of thing that the Tories have utterly failed to grasp.
Questions: Who is diagnosing them, how much are they paid. Why are taxi companies being enriched, what links to councillors do they have, why can't councils hire buses etc. etc.
Nope the killer bit is adult social care - special needs is very secondary to that
Not round our way. Its child social care.
Agree Adult social care is a problem in a good few places. - and what is at the root of that? The same private equity parasites who have made vets resemble US Healthcare.
However so long as those who pay most council tax will have to pay for their own social care, and to rub it in pay a couple or three hundred a week extra to subsidise council funded places as the councils get bulk discount, I can't see much support for extra council tax to sort it.
Putin is not a political operator . He’s a dictator who murders his opponents . Farage is just trying to defend his admiration for him. A vote for Farage or Trump is a vote for Putin .
Farage can go fxck himself . I’d rather the Tories avoided carnage at the GE and see Farage piss of to the USA to support his other hero Trump .
The introduction of more council tax bands would not be a total surprise and it might be our fault. PB has previously discussed the much higher property taxes in the land of the free, and the difficulty of taking expensive homes out of the country.
Council tax was flawed from it's introduction as it did not have enough and fairer higher ranges
I actually support extending the ranges and at present the Welsh Labour government are proceeding with just that and using drones to assess people's land and gardens
Drones?! They don't need to do that with the Ordnance Survey mapping service and Google/Bing websites plus Land Registry!
I'd think it's only needed if there is some information laid about very recent developments.
When you look at the list of things they are including in their assessments - a lot of which are not likely to be identifiable from maps - you can see wht the Welsh Stasi are using drones.
One thing I would be interested in knowing is whether they have sorted out the legal basis for this given it is illegal to fly drones close to properties or point cameras at properties from drones without permission from the owner.
Air photography is legal. And there are several free or paid for services. Indeed the OS service is a permanently updated online database rather than discrete map sheets.
Indeed. But the rules behind drone usage are extremely tight as I know from using them for archaeology. If I want to do a building survey for example I have to make sure I have the written permission from all neighbouring porperties which might be imaged in the survey.
There are lots of obvious reasons for all of this. The use of drones for spying on people in their own homes for sordid purposes is a real thing and something that causes lots of complaints to the police.
That's a great example of the sort of nonsense that enshitifies everyones' life for no benefit. The only people who will follow that procedure are the ones doing nothing wrong, whereas the wrong-uns will just fly their drone out to perv on people without getting pemission and will never get caught. Seems like about 90% of modern life in Britain consist of similar traps that inconvenience compliant people while letting the scum go on unencumbered (think the don't assault staff signs everywhere, security packages in supermarkets, police response etc).
The thing that has put a strain on our councils finances in recent years is a tripling of children diagnosed with special needs which entitles them to free transport to school and accompanying vast taxi bill.
This interestingly started a few years after the ending of tax credits for more than two children unless one has a disability in which case they stay and there is a £3k disabled child allowance.
Any comment on that line makes you look like you want to put people in wheelchairs in workhouses, but a huge number of them have things like ADHD which are subjective diagnosis, not mobility affecting (and very lucrative tax credit/universal credit wise).
It is the sort of thing that the Tories have utterly failed to grasp.
Questions: Who is diagnosing them, how much are they paid. Why are taxi companies being enriched, what links to councillors do they have, why can't councils hire buses etc. etc.
It buggers up the rural taxi market too. They are all far too fat on the school contracts to bother with useful work like 11pm pub pickups.
Lots of people giving @Big_G_NorthWales a hard time because he's voting Tory.
Nasty. Really nasty.
I had this yesterday from some quarters, despite an explanation which @Heathener and others accepted and it seems that for some discussing your voting intention with the person you have been married to for 60 years is outrageous, but for me we had quite a comprehensive discussion and came to our conclusion as the last thing we want is a Farage led conservative party and it will not prevent Starmer being PM on the 5th July
On the contrary, multiplied by the hundreds of thousands of voters who will do the same, it could bring Sunak back to 31, 32% on the day. Labour down to about 35%, delivering most-seats and a minority government for Sunak and his successor.
Oh yes, I’d love to see Sunak form a minority Govt. Just for the absolute Lolz.
They can laugh all they want. But if the 2019 Tories come back like our friend here, Sunak can win 260 seats and coalesce with red wall Reform and the DUP while Starmer loses all momentum and authority to form a government.
That result would likely lead to a Labour and LD coalition government though and PR, arguably worse for the Tories than a Starmer landslide, albeit still better than being wiped out by Reform under FPTP
A vote for Labour is a vote for your Council Tax bill going up.
Back at my parents for Father's day. Historically safe tory area, both council and Westminster.
Apparently major consternation on the street WhatsApp group that the council have given up cutting the verges. And quite rightly, this is third world territory.
We've had ten years of central government punching down on local authorities, pushing them toward I'll advised property investments. Something has to give.
The introduction of more council tax bands would not be a total surprise and it might be our fault. PB has previously discussed the much higher property taxes in the land of the free, and the difficulty of taking expensive homes out of the country.
Council tax was flawed from it's introduction as it did not have enough and fairer higher ranges
I actually support extending the ranges and at present the Welsh Labour government are proceeding with just that and using drones to assess people's land and gardens
Drones?! They don't need to do that with the Ordnance Survey mapping service and Google/Bing websites plus Land Registry!
I'd think it's only needed if there is some information laid about very recent developments.
When you look at the list of things they are including in their assessments - a lot of which are not likely to be identifiable from maps - you can see wht the Welsh Stasi are using drones.
One thing I would be interested in knowing is whether they have sorted out the legal basis for this given it is illegal to fly drones close to properties or point cameras at properties from drones without permission from the owner.
Air photography is legal. And there are several free or paid for services. Indeed the OS service is a permanently updated online database rather than discrete map sheets.
Indeed. But the rules behind drone usage are extremely tight as I know from using them for archaeology. If I want to do a building survey for example I have to make sure I have the written permission from all neighbouring porperties which might be imaged in the survey.
There are lots of obvious reasons for all of this. The use of drones for spying on people in their own homes for sordid purposes is a real thing and something that causes lots of complaints to the police.
That's a great example of the sort of nonsense that enshitifies everyones' life for no benefit. The only people who will follow that procedure are the ones doing nothing wrong, whereas the wrong-uns will just fly their drone out to perv on people without getting pemission and will never get caught. Seems like about 90% of modern life in Britain consist of similar traps that inconvenience compliant people while letting the scum go on unencumbered (think the don't assault staff signs everywhere, security packages in supermarkets, police response etc).
I very much doubt that the enquiry will say it, but the root cause of Grenfell is that we have ever more regulations, ever more complex regulations, ever more conflict between regulations, ever more self certification (as the more regulations the greater the cost of inspectors) and f*** all enforcement.
So, other than a few quasi nationalised industries like Rail and nuclear, where vast taxpayer subsidies pay for effective enforcement, any company trying to comply and do a good job will be beaten in the tender process by one that cuts corners.
So the choice is certain bankruptcy, or a small risk of bankruptcy if it is your job that goes catastrophically wrong.
I am impressed that you posted that before William Glenn did.
Yes, clearly Trump is serious about pushing for a swift Ukrainian victory. If he said the opposite it would create complacency among Ukraine's European allies and give Russia an opportunity.
Trump is pushing for a swift Ukranian victory? What brings you to that interpretation?
What is the effect of his words if not to push European countries to pull their finger out and reduce dependence on the US?
An alternative theory suggests Trump is a humongous turd who will do his best to see Ukraine defeated. This is to return the favour to his friend Vladimir for his help in subverting the American political system to Trump's personal benefit.
You mean a conspiracy theory?
A conspiracy theory that a deliberate policy to starve Ukraine of the means to avoid defeat could be a deliberate policy to ensure defeat?
Yeah. I might buy into that.
How do you reconcile Trump's opposition to Germany filling Russia's coffers and underspending on defence with the view that he is determined to help Russian expansionism?
Your view depends on seeing the US as the only real actor in this with European countries reduced to being merely pawns. In a strange way you see eye to eye with Putin.
IanB2 said: » show previous quotes The LibDems are alive to the fact that despite the likes of Big_G spending six months wasting our time reading his daily posts about how he wasn’t going to vote Tory, just like he did throughout 2019, Mrs_G had him down as a Tory voter from the start, and clearly she’s the one that gets to fill in their ballot papers.
And people here have the cheek to make caustic comments about postal votes in Tower Hamlets!
Can we give Mrs_G an account here?
Big_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,971
I am saddened that you have taken my wife and my decision to vote for the conservative in our postal vote despite an explanation of the thought and reasons and no doubt you do not like that my wife considers Davey a ' clown' and is unimpressed with his antics and his role in the PO enquiry not least as she was a customer of Alan Bates
You twist around on 2019 but fail to recognise I did not vote for Johnson as leader and I did have a vote as I was a member at the time, but of course I voted for the party v Corbyn
You need to understand that my wife and I utterly condemn Farage and it is important for all conservatives who want a one nation party to support the party on the 4th July to ensure the total numbers of votes exceed Reform
My explanation was endorsed by @Heathener and others on here so maybe you need to accept that in some families, and especially mine where my wife and I have just celebrated 60 years of marriage , that we do discuss issues and decide together how we deal with them
Just accept that your credibility here is shot.
I have no idea why you are taking this so badly, but to be honest no amount of criticism will prevent me posting as honestly as I can and if you do not like it then that is a matter for you
You’ve made a complete tit of yourself, two elections running. Even the more charitable amongst us can see that, very clearly.
The thing that has put a strain on our councils finances in recent years is a tripling of children diagnosed with special needs which entitles them to free transport to school and accompanying vast taxi bill.
This interestingly started a few years after the ending of tax credits for more than two children unless one has a disability in which case they stay and there is a £3k disabled child allowance.
Any comment on that line makes you look like you want to put people in wheelchairs in workhouses, but a huge number of them have things like ADHD which are subjective diagnosis, not mobility affecting (and very lucrative tax credit/universal credit wise).
It is the sort of thing that the Tories have utterly failed to grasp.
Questions: Who is diagnosing them, how much are they paid. Why are taxi companies being enriched, what links to councillors do they have, why can't councils hire buses etc. etc.
Nope the killer bit is adult social care - special needs is very secondary to that
Adult social care still eats up a larger proportion of council budgets than children's services, but demand for the latter has grown more rapidly in recent years:
County council leaders have called for an ‘honest discussion’ about service delivery as new research reveals local authorities spend two-thirds of their budgets on care services. A new analysis by Pixel Financial Management (Pixel) for the County Councils Network (CCN) has revealed that councils are spending over £200 per person more on children’s services and adult social care compared to a decade ago.
The study found that per person spending on children’s services has risen 77% over the last 10 years and consumes almost a quarter (23%) of all council expenditure – up from 18% in 2014.
Spending on adult social care has risen by 48% per person over the same period.
CCN warned that spending on care was ‘squeezing’ the funding for other services such as libraries, road repairs, street lighting, and parks maintenance.
Cllr Roger Gough, CCN Spokesperson for Children’s Services said: ‘With more than two-thirds of the average county local authority’s budget now spent on just children’s services and adult social care, rising to three quarters in some areas, there is simply less and less each year for us to spend on highly valued services such as libraries, road repairs, and street lighting.
‘This month’s Budget confirmed that the public finances remain extremely tight. Therefore, we need to have an honest discussion with all main political parties as we head into the general election on what councils can reasonably be expected to deliver, in a climate where substantive extra funds are unlikely and both demand and costs are set to rise.’
Regardless, without either a large enough injection of cash or the removal of statutory responsibilities from councils, every authority in England that currently has to fund social care is eventually going to go bankrupt. All of them. Every county and every unitary. The tsunami of demand is something that can't be funded through efficiency savings or getting rid of diversity officers. Councils will end up ceasing to provide absolutely everything not strictly mandated by law and then, when there's nothing left to get rid of that they are allowed to get rid of, they'll fold anyway. It's simple maths.
I am impressed that you posted that before William Glenn did.
Yes, clearly Trump is serious about pushing for a swift Ukrainian victory. If he said the opposite it would create complacency among Ukraine's European allies and give Russia an opportunity.
Trump is pushing for a swift Ukranian victory? What brings you to that interpretation?
What is the effect of his words if not to push European countries to pull their finger out and reduce dependence on the US?
An alternative theory suggests Trump is a humongous turd who will do his best to see Ukraine defeated. This is to return the favour to his friend Vladimir for his help in subverting the American political system to Trump's personal benefit.
You mean a conspiracy theory?
A conspiracy theory that a deliberate policy to starve Ukraine of the means to avoid defeat could be a deliberate policy to ensure defeat?
Yeah. I might buy into that.
How do you reconcile Trump's opposition to Germany filling Russia's coffers and underspending on defence with the view that he is determined to help Russian expansionism?
Your view depends on seeing the US as the only real actor in this with European countries reduced to being merely pawns. In a strange way you see eye-to-eye with Putin.
How do you reconcile his promise to cut support to Ukraine as his support for Ukraine?
I am impressed that you posted that before William Glenn did.
Yes, clearly Trump is serious about pushing for a swift Ukrainian victory. If he said the opposite it would create complacency among Ukraine's European allies and give Russia an opportunity.
I wish that was true. And if Trump wins, and it happens, I will be incredibly grateful.
But is there any example you can think of where Trump has done anything other than fawn over Putin? And is there any indication that the Trump-wing of the Republican Party has been supportive of Ukraine. (Indeed, almost all of Trump's most vocal backers have been actually anti-Ukraine.)
What is it about extremely high and incongruous migration, NIMBYism, and unprecedented housing, rental, and tax hikes that voters don't like?
BQ were also the main opposition for a term in 1993 when the reverse happened and the Liberals won a landslide rather than the projected Conservative landslide this time.
To be fair though even 37 projected seats for the Liberals would be higher than the 34 Liberal seats Trudeau inherited after the Liberal trouncing in 2011 when they trailed both Harper's re elected Conservatives and the NDP. Trudeau has also won 3 general elections for the Liberals since
The thing that has put a strain on our councils finances in recent years is a tripling of children diagnosed with special needs which entitles them to free transport to school and accompanying vast taxi bill.
This interestingly started a few years after the ending of tax credits for more than two children unless one has a disability in which case they stay and there is a £3k disabled child allowance.
Any comment on that line makes you look like you want to put people in wheelchairs in workhouses, but a huge number of them have things like ADHD which are subjective diagnosis, not mobility affecting (and very lucrative tax credit/universal credit wise).
It is the sort of thing that the Tories have utterly failed to grasp.
Questions: Who is diagnosing them, how much are they paid. Why are taxi companies being enriched, what links to councillors do they have, why can't councils hire buses etc. etc.
It buggers up the rural taxi market too. They are all far too fat on the school contracts to bother with useful work like 11pm pub pickups.
Tell me about it. A few years back I was on a course in Yate staring 9AM and found a nice (good priced) pub to stay in near Chipping Sodbury.
I then discovered that taxis between 7AM and 9AM were block booked by the local authority and had a 45 minute walk with my luggage. Luckily the overnight monsoon had abated.
I am impressed that you posted that before William Glenn did.
Yes, clearly Trump is serious about pushing for a swift Ukrainian victory. If he said the opposite it would create complacency among Ukraine's European allies and give Russia an opportunity.
Trump is pushing for a swift Ukranian victory? What brings you to that interpretation?
What is the effect of his words if not to push European countries to pull their finger out and reduce dependence on the US?
An alternative theory suggests Trump is a humongous turd who will do his best to see Ukraine defeated. This is to return the favour to his friend Vladimir for his help in subverting the American political system to Trump's personal benefit.
You mean a conspiracy theory?
A conspiracy theory that a deliberate policy to starve Ukraine of the means to avoid defeat could be a deliberate policy to ensure defeat?
Yeah. I might buy into that.
How do you reconcile Trump's opposition to Germany filling Russia's coffers and underspending on defence with the view that he is determined to help Russian expansionism?
Your view depends on seeing the US as the only real actor in this with European countries reduced to being merely pawns. In a strange way you see eye to eye with Putin.
The thing that has put a strain on our councils finances in recent years is a tripling of children diagnosed with special needs which entitles them to free transport to school and accompanying vast taxi bill.
This interestingly started a few years after the ending of tax credits for more than two children unless one has a disability in which case they stay and there is a £3k disabled child allowance.
Any comment on that line makes you look like you want to put people in wheelchairs in workhouses, but a huge number of them have things like ADHD which are subjective diagnosis, not mobility affecting (and very lucrative tax credit/universal credit wise).
It is the sort of thing that the Tories have utterly failed to grasp.
Questions: Who is diagnosing them, how much are they paid. Why are taxi companies being enriched, what links to councillors do they have, why can't councils hire buses etc. etc.
Nope the killer bit is adult social care - special needs is very secondary to that
Not round our way. Its child social care.
Agree Adult social care is a problem in a good few places. - and what is at the root of that? The same private equity parasites who have made vets resemble US Healthcare.
However so long as those who pay most council tax will have to pay for their own social care, and to rub it in pay a couple or three hundred a week extra to subsidise council funded places as the councils get bulk discount, I can't see much support for extra council tax to sort it.
In Central Beds council 36% of the budget goes on adult social care and 25% on children's social care, of which a small proportion relates to transport.
IanB2 said: » show previous quotes The LibDems are alive to the fact that despite the likes of Big_G spending six months wasting our time reading his daily posts about how he wasn’t going to vote Tory, just like he did throughout 2019, Mrs_G had him down as a Tory voter from the start, and clearly she’s the one that gets to fill in their ballot papers.
And people here have the cheek to make caustic comments about postal votes in Tower Hamlets!
Can we give Mrs_G an account here?
Big_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,971
I am saddened that you have taken my wife and my decision to vote for the conservative in our postal vote despite an explanation of the thought and reasons and no doubt you do not like that my wife considers Davey a ' clown' and is unimpressed with his antics and his role in the PO enquiry not least as she was a customer of Alan Bates
You twist around on 2019 but fail to recognise I did not vote for Johnson as leader and I did have a vote as I was a member at the time, but of course I voted for the party v Corbyn
You need to understand that my wife and I utterly condemn Farage and it is important for all conservatives who want a one nation party to support the party on the 4th July to ensure the total numbers of votes exceed Reform
My explanation was endorsed by @Heathener and others on here so maybe you need to accept that in some families, and especially mine where my wife and I have just celebrated 60 years of marriage , that we do discuss issues and decide together how we deal with them
Just accept that your credibility here is shot.
I have no idea why you are taking this so badly, but to be honest no amount of criticism will prevent me posting as honestly as I can and if you do not like it then that is a matter for you
You’ve made a complete tit of yourself, two elections running. Even the more charitable amongst us can see that, very clearly.
Goodness. What an idiot you are.!
Welcome back @felix good to see you back on here 👍
The thing that has put a strain on our councils finances in recent years is a tripling of children diagnosed with special needs which entitles them to free transport to school and accompanying vast taxi bill.
This interestingly started a few years after the ending of tax credits for more than two children unless one has a disability in which case they stay and there is a £3k disabled child allowance.
Any comment on that line makes you look like you want to put people in wheelchairs in workhouses, but a huge number of them have things like ADHD which are subjective diagnosis, not mobility affecting (and very lucrative tax credit/universal credit wise).
It is the sort of thing that the Tories have utterly failed to grasp.
Questions: Who is diagnosing them, how much are they paid. Why are taxi companies being enriched, what links to councillors do they have, why can't councils hire buses etc. etc.
Nope the killer bit is adult social care - special needs is very secondary to that
Not round our way. Its child social care.
Agree Adult social care is a problem in a good few places. - and what is at the root of that? The same private equity parasites who have made vets resemble US Healthcare.
However so long as those who pay most council tax will have to pay for their own social care, and to rub it in pay a couple or three hundred a week extra to subsidise council funded places as the councils get bulk discount, I can't see much support for extra council tax to sort it.
In Central Beds council 36% of the budget goes on adult social care and 25% on children's social care, of which a small proportion relates to transport.
One of the things in life I can't get my head round is adult social care costs. I don't get how it's so expensive - often climbing towards £100k/yr yet the charities/companies running them that I audited in my old jobs were all basket cases on the brink of going under. Every other type of organisation I worked with I could get a good handle on where the money was going/how they ticked, yet I never could with them.
I am impressed that you posted that before William Glenn did.
Yes, clearly Trump is serious about pushing for a swift Ukrainian victory. If he said the opposite it would create complacency among Ukraine's European allies and give Russia an opportunity.
Trump is pushing for a swift Ukranian victory? What brings you to that interpretation?
What is the effect of his words if not to push European countries to pull their finger out and reduce dependence on the US?
An alternative theory suggests Trump is a humongous turd who will do his best to see Ukraine defeated. This is to return the favour to his friend Vladimir for his help in subverting the American political system to Trump's personal benefit.
You mean a conspiracy theory?
A conspiracy theory that a deliberate policy to starve Ukraine of the means to avoid defeat could be a deliberate policy to ensure defeat?
Yeah. I might buy into that.
How do you reconcile Trump's opposition to Germany filling Russia's coffers and underspending on defence with the view that he is determined to help Russian expansionism?
Your view depends on seeing the US as the only real actor in this with European countries reduced to being merely pawns. In a strange way you see eye to eye with Putin.
I don't, it doesn't and I don't.
The first "I don't" invalidates your theory. If Trump's actions are not consistent with those of someone trying to help Russia, then you must be mistaken in some way.
I am impressed that you posted that before William Glenn did.
Yes, clearly Trump is serious about pushing for a swift Ukrainian victory. If he said the opposite it would create complacency among Ukraine's European allies and give Russia an opportunity.
Trump is pushing for a swift Ukranian victory? What brings you to that interpretation?
What is the effect of his words if not to push European countries to pull their finger out and reduce dependence on the US?
An alternative theory suggests Trump is a humongous turd who will do his best to see Ukraine defeated. This is to return the favour to his friend Vladimir for his help in subverting the American political system to Trump's personal benefit.
You mean a conspiracy theory?
A conspiracy theory that a deliberate policy to starve Ukraine of the means to avoid defeat could be a deliberate policy to ensure defeat?
Yeah. I might buy into that.
How do you reconcile Trump's opposition to Germany filling Russia's coffers and underspending on defence with the view that he is determined to help Russian expansionism?
Your view depends on seeing the US as the only real actor in this with European countries reduced to being merely pawns. In a strange way you see eye-to-eye with Putin.
How do you reconcile his promise to cut support to Ukraine as his support for Ukraine?
He isn't running to be dictactor of the West and isn't proposing to do anything to prevent Ukraine acting to defend itself.
(This is in contrast to the Biden White House which has imposed conditions on Ukraine and made it fight with one hand tied behind its back as well as limiting what US allies can do to help.)
IanB2 said: » show previous quotes The LibDems are alive to the fact that despite the likes of Big_G spending six months wasting our time reading his daily posts about how he wasn’t going to vote Tory, just like he did throughout 2019, Mrs_G had him down as a Tory voter from the start, and clearly she’s the one that gets to fill in their ballot papers.
And people here have the cheek to make caustic comments about postal votes in Tower Hamlets!
Can we give Mrs_G an account here?
Big_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,971
I am saddened that you have taken my wife and my decision to vote for the conservative in our postal vote despite an explanation of the thought and reasons and no doubt you do not like that my wife considers Davey a ' clown' and is unimpressed with his antics and his role in the PO enquiry not least as she was a customer of Alan Bates
You twist around on 2019 but fail to recognise I did not vote for Johnson as leader and I did have a vote as I was a member at the time, but of course I voted for the party v Corbyn
You need to understand that my wife and I utterly condemn Farage and it is important for all conservatives who want a one nation party to support the party on the 4th July to ensure the total numbers of votes exceed Reform
My explanation was endorsed by @Heathener and others on here so maybe you need to accept that in some families, and especially mine where my wife and I have just celebrated 60 years of marriage , that we do discuss issues and decide together how we deal with them
Just accept that your credibility here is shot.
I have no idea why you are taking this so badly, but to be honest no amount of criticism will prevent me posting as honestly as I can and if you do not like it then that is a matter for you
You’ve made a complete tit of yourself, two elections running. Even the more charitable amongst us can see that, very clearly.
I could say something very unkind but I will just say:
There are very many on here who could fit in the same category yourself included
I am impressed that you posted that before William Glenn did.
Yes, clearly Trump is serious about pushing for a swift Ukrainian victory. If he said the opposite it would create complacency among Ukraine's European allies and give Russia an opportunity.
Trump is pushing for a swift Ukranian victory? What brings you to that interpretation?
What is the effect of his words if not to push European countries to pull their finger out and reduce dependence on the US?
An alternative theory suggests Trump is a humongous turd who will do his best to see Ukraine defeated. This is to return the favour to his friend Vladimir for his help in subverting the American political system to Trump's personal benefit.
You mean a conspiracy theory?
A conspiracy theory that a deliberate policy to starve Ukraine of the means to avoid defeat could be a deliberate policy to ensure defeat?
Yeah. I might buy into that.
How do you reconcile Trump's opposition to Germany filling Russia's coffers and underspending on defence with the view that he is determined to help Russian expansionism?
Your view depends on seeing the US as the only real actor in this with European countries reduced to being merely pawns. In a strange way you see eye-to-eye with Putin.
How do you reconcile his promise to cut support to Ukraine as his support for Ukraine?
He isn't running to be dictactor of the West and isn't proposing to do anything to prevent Ukraine acting to defend itself.
(This is in contrast to the Biden White House which has imposed conditions on Ukraine and made it fight with one hand tied behind its back as well as limiting what US allies can do to help.)
I had expected at least some engagement with the substantive content that Trump wants to cut aid, but if it is just about being an edgy right-wing internet provocateur, that's boring.
Although I am very much in the camp that AI isn't going to be all jobs in every sector in 2-3 years, not to be even having a discussion about how it will effect education and work is quite crazy. We know productivity is piss poor, we should be looking at what it can do for many aspects of the state (this is where Big Dom was actually onto something).
The GE is quite weird. Labour nor Tories really have any big new ideas, its just rehashing old policies with new names as if the world hasn't changed at all since 1997. Other big issues like knife crime, shop lifting, phone snatching, the most I have heard is some nonsense from Labour about well we will make Apple make it harder to reactivate them (but they already all go to China where this is irrelevant).
Although I am very much in the camp that AI isn't going to be all jobs in every sector in 2-3 years, not to be even having a discussion about how it will effect education and work is quite crazy. We know productivity is piss poor, we should be looking at what it can do for many aspects of the state (this is where Big Dom was actually onto something).
The GE is quite weird. Labour nor Tories really have any big new ideas, its just rehashing old policies with new names as if the world hasn't changed at all since 1997.
That Sean Thomas knows nothing about tech, I remember when he was convinced What.3.Words would change the world as we know it.
He is the Rogerdamus of the tech and political world.
The introduction of more council tax bands would not be a total surprise and it might be our fault. PB has previously discussed the much higher property taxes in the land of the free, and the difficulty of taking expensive homes out of the country.
Council tax was flawed from it's introduction as it did not have enough and fairer higher ranges
I actually support extending the ranges and at present the Welsh Labour government are proceeding with just that and using drones to assess people's land and gardens
Can't read i t, but the bit I can see is MAYBE and IN THE FUTURE and SATELLITES which is probably a misunderstanding of Google "Satellite View" (which is taken from aircraft) but could just be the absolutely normal commercial databases which ANY firm can buy if they want, whether taken from aircraft or satellites.
Edit: have been able to read it on a second try. NO MENTION OF DRONES OR SUCH SPECIFIC INTRUSION. It's all about systematic checking of what is evidently standard general commercial air photography. No dsifferent from looking at the OS map whcih is made by the same means.
'The Telegraph can now reveal the data that is currently being gathered by the Valuation Office, where officials are building an “automated valuation model” to prepare up-to-date values for all of the 1.5 million homes in Wales.
As part of this model, they are using “aerial and street view photography” in order to verify the size of houses and gardens.'
The thing that has put a strain on our councils finances in recent years is a tripling of children diagnosed with special needs which entitles them to free transport to school and accompanying vast taxi bill.
This interestingly started a few years after the ending of tax credits for more than two children unless one has a disability in which case they stay and there is a £3k disabled child allowance.
Any comment on that line makes you look like you want to put people in wheelchairs in workhouses, but a huge number of them have things like ADHD which are subjective diagnosis, not mobility affecting (and very lucrative tax credit/universal credit wise).
It is the sort of thing that the Tories have utterly failed to grasp.
Questions: Who is diagnosing them, how much are they paid. Why are taxi companies being enriched, what links to councillors do they have, why can't councils hire buses etc. etc.
Nope the killer bit is adult social care - special needs is very secondary to that
Not round our way. Its child social care.
Agree Adult social care is a problem in a good few places. - and what is at the root of that? The same private equity parasites who have made vets resemble US Healthcare.
However so long as those who pay most council tax will have to pay for their own social care, and to rub it in pay a couple or three hundred a week extra to subsidise council funded places as the councils get bulk discount, I can't see much support for extra council tax to sort it.
In Central Beds council 36% of the budget goes on adult social care and 25% on children's social care, of which a small proportion relates to transport.
One of the things in life I can't get my head round is adult social care costs. I don't get how it's so expensive - often climbing towards £100k/yr yet the charities/companies running them that I audited in my old jobs were all basket cases on the brink of going under. Every other type of organisation I worked with I could get a good handle on where the money was going/how they ticked, yet I never could with them.
My first guess would be that mostly the money is going on carer salaries, on the basis that the care needs people to do it, often at a fairly low client:staff ratio. But I guess if it was just that it would be visible in the audit figures that that was where the money went?
IanB2 said: » show previous quotes The LibDems are alive to the fact that despite the likes of Big_G spending six months wasting our time reading his daily posts about how he wasn’t going to vote Tory, just like he did throughout 2019, Mrs_G had him down as a Tory voter from the start, and clearly she’s the one that gets to fill in their ballot papers.
And people here have the cheek to make caustic comments about postal votes in Tower Hamlets!
Can we give Mrs_G an account here?
Big_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,971
I am saddened that you have taken my wife and my decision to vote for the conservative in our postal vote despite an explanation of the thought and reasons and no doubt you do not like that my wife considers Davey a ' clown' and is unimpressed with his antics and his role in the PO enquiry not least as she was a customer of Alan Bates
You twist around on 2019 but fail to recognise I did not vote for Johnson as leader and I did have a vote as I was a member at the time, but of course I voted for the party v Corbyn
You need to understand that my wife and I utterly condemn Farage and it is important for all conservatives who want a one nation party to support the party on the 4th July to ensure the total numbers of votes exceed Reform
My explanation was endorsed by @Heathener and others on here so maybe you need to accept that in some families, and especially mine where my wife and I have just celebrated 60 years of marriage , that we do discuss issues and decide together how we deal with them
Just accept that your credibility here is shot.
I have no idea why you are taking this so badly, but to be honest no amount of criticism will prevent me posting as honestly as I can and if you do not like it then that is a matter for you
You’ve made a complete tit of yourself, two elections running. Even the more charitable amongst us can see that, very clearly.
I wonder how they are going to cope with the revelation that every Post Office Minister since 2015 has been a Tory and it was the Tories who gave Paula Vennells a gong.
Or that whilst all three parties are liable for blame, only one - the Tories - took a look at the situation, the suffering, and the injustice, and went, "You know, we could weaponise this for political benefit."
And it looks like they were right and will reap at least some reward. Cynical and sad though it may be.
Anecdote alert. I drove to Southend and back this morning. I didn't see a single poster in Southend. Around where I am in Woking, however, there are lots of Lib Dem posters. Interestingly, in 1997 the Lib Dems were especially prominent on my estate. Not so much now, but they are very prominent with the big houses.
The thing that has put a strain on our councils finances in recent years is a tripling of children diagnosed with special needs which entitles them to free transport to school and accompanying vast taxi bill.
This interestingly started a few years after the ending of tax credits for more than two children unless one has a disability in which case they stay and there is a £3k disabled child allowance.
Any comment on that line makes you look like you want to put people in wheelchairs in workhouses, but a huge number of them have things like ADHD which are subjective diagnosis, not mobility affecting (and very lucrative tax credit/universal credit wise).
It is the sort of thing that the Tories have utterly failed to grasp.
Questions: Who is diagnosing them, how much are they paid. Why are taxi companies being enriched, what links to councillors do they have, why can't councils hire buses etc. etc.
Nope the killer bit is adult social care - special needs is very secondary to that
Not round our way. Its child social care.
Agree Adult social care is a problem in a good few places. - and what is at the root of that? The same private equity parasites who have made vets resemble US Healthcare.
However so long as those who pay most council tax will have to pay for their own social care, and to rub it in pay a couple or three hundred a week extra to subsidise council funded places as the councils get bulk discount, I can't see much support for extra council tax to sort it.
In Central Beds council 36% of the budget goes on adult social care and 25% on children's social care, of which a small proportion relates to transport.
One of the things in life I can't get my head round is adult social care costs. I don't get how it's so expensive - often climbing towards £100k/yr yet the charities/companies running them that I audited in my old jobs were all basket cases on the brink of going under. Every other type of organisation I worked with I could get a good handle on where the money was going/how they ticked, yet I never could with them.
My first guess would be that mostly the money is going on carer salaries, on the basis that the care needs people to do it, often at a fairly low client:staff ratio. But I guess if it was just that it would be visible in the audit figures that that was where the money went?
Yep that used to be my assumption, but the one I can recount the P&L/SOFA from memory had staff costs at about 50% of income - even this year the Care visas they've taken full advantage of have not really helped things at all apparently. I'm a reasonably intelligent bloke and a decent auditor, yet for this entire sector I just can't work out how on earth it doesn't make money.
Constituency polling is difficult as the polling companies themselves show. Look at North Shropshire You Gov Lib Dem 40, Con 25, Lab 19 Reform 11 Green 3 Survation Lib Dem 19 Con 30, Lab 25 Reform 18 Green 4
Somebody is hideously wrong or both. Treat it all with scepticism, look at who is funding the polls, maybe that is an indicator, maybe not.
There are many others in that list of 72, likewise there are some strange ones in the Labour and Lib Dem column.
The introduction of more council tax bands would not be a total surprise and it might be our fault. PB has previously discussed the much higher property taxes in the land of the free, and the difficulty of taking expensive homes out of the country.
Council tax was flawed from it's introduction as it did not have enough and fairer higher ranges
I actually support extending the ranges and at present the Welsh Labour government are proceeding with just that and using drones to assess people's land and gardens
Can't read i t, but the bit I can see is MAYBE and IN THE FUTURE and SATELLITES which is probably a misunderstanding of Google "Satellite View" (which is taken from aircraft) but could just be the absolutely normal commercial databases which ANY firm can buy if they want, whether taken from aircraft or satellites.
Edit: have been able to read it on a second try. NO MENTION OF DRONES OR SUCH SPECIFIC INTRUSION. It's all about systematic checking of what is evidently standard general commercial air photography. No dsifferent from looking at the OS map whcih is made by the same means.
'The Telegraph can now reveal the data that is currently being gathered by the Valuation Office, where officials are building an “automated valuation model” to prepare up-to-date values for all of the 1.5 million homes in Wales.
As part of this model, they are using “aerial and street view photography” in order to verify the size of houses and gardens.'
Who are the leaders of the future in the Conservative Party? The outstanding candidates standing fresh for the first time?
That's what I'll be looking for. To be fair, I think I'll be looking quite hard.
The other piece of analysis that would be interesting is: who is the challenger in each of these seats? Who is it the surviving MPs are scared of, because that fear may drive a lot of their choices about who should be leader.
My photo for the day is my friend @tandemkate's (twitter) travel arrangements. This is an e-Brompton towing an active wheelchair. Kate is privileged and a professional, so can afford cost of this setup of £2.5k+, even using a second hand Brompton - and also has other cycles and aids for other requirements, a car etc. Plus she is a campaigns officer for a national disabled charity, and does not embarrass easily. An active wheelchair is one using crossover tech developed for competition wheelchairs, which weigh 6kg to 15kg, rather than 20-30kg for a normal wheelchair, and cost £500 to £15,000 depending on how exotic it is. There is a stick in the front bag.
A business day in London for Kate might be cycle like this to Derby Station, train to St Pancras, cycle to say Wandsworth or Blackheath, use the wheelchair on the premises (Kate cannot do much more - except on a good day - than walk around the house). Then reverse the journey after meetings etc.
Enforcement officers of all kinds often seem to think they are Jesus. It is a constant experience of disabled people using cycles of whatever type as their mobility aid to be told to "pick up your mobility aid and walk". Here's one from from St Pancras Station: https://x.com/tandemkate/status/1668649068002697220
A fascinating thing for me is the ingrained and observable-in-practice attitude, even when denied, that disabled people are a sort of afflicted "them" who "we" can choose to help - rather than part of "us". In reality the change from "able bodied" to "disabled" happens at random in the blink of an eye, as simply as a dozy driver going through a red light when you crossing the road.
The thing that has put a strain on our councils finances in recent years is a tripling of children diagnosed with special needs which entitles them to free transport to school and accompanying vast taxi bill.
This interestingly started a few years after the ending of tax credits for more than two children unless one has a disability in which case they stay and there is a £3k disabled child allowance.
Any comment on that line makes you look like you want to put people in wheelchairs in workhouses, but a huge number of them have things like ADHD which are subjective diagnosis, not mobility affecting (and very lucrative tax credit/universal credit wise).
It is the sort of thing that the Tories have utterly failed to grasp.
Questions: Who is diagnosing them, how much are they paid. Why are taxi companies being enriched, what links to councillors do they have, why can't councils hire buses etc. etc.
Nope the killer bit is adult social care - special needs is very secondary to that
Not round our way. Its child social care.
Agree Adult social care is a problem in a good few places. - and what is at the root of that? The same private equity parasites who have made vets resemble US Healthcare.
However so long as those who pay most council tax will have to pay for their own social care, and to rub it in pay a couple or three hundred a week extra to subsidise council funded places as the councils get bulk discount, I can't see much support for extra council tax to sort it.
In Central Beds council 36% of the budget goes on adult social care and 25% on children's social care, of which a small proportion relates to transport.
One of the things in life I can't get my head round is adult social care costs. I don't get how it's so expensive - often climbing towards £100k/yr yet the charities/companies running them that I audited in my old jobs were all basket cases on the brink of going under. Every other type of organisation I worked with I could get a good handle on where the money was going/how they ticked, yet I never could with them.
My first guess would be that mostly the money is going on carer salaries, on the basis that the care needs people to do it, often at a fairly low client:staff ratio. But I guess if it was just that it would be visible in the audit figures that that was where the money went?
Home care is labour intensive, the number of recipients is large and keeps on growing, and there are substantial costs beyond staff salaries (notably, the amount of time wasted traveling between recipients, and the fuel required to do so.) It's a simple consequence of having a population that is ageing, in declining health, and at the mercy both of a decaying healthcare system and a lack of attention to measures that reduce the risk of illness.
The thing that has put a strain on our councils finances in recent years is a tripling of children diagnosed with special needs which entitles them to free transport to school and accompanying vast taxi bill.
This interestingly started a few years after the ending of tax credits for more than two children unless one has a disability in which case they stay and there is a £3k disabled child allowance.
Any comment on that line makes you look like you want to put people in wheelchairs in workhouses, but a huge number of them have things like ADHD which are subjective diagnosis, not mobility affecting (and very lucrative tax credit/universal credit wise).
It is the sort of thing that the Tories have utterly failed to grasp.
Questions: Who is diagnosing them, how much are they paid. Why are taxi companies being enriched, what links to councillors do they have, why can't councils hire buses etc. etc.
Nope the killer bit is adult social care - special needs is very secondary to that
Not round our way. Its child social care.
Agree Adult social care is a problem in a good few places. - and what is at the root of that? The same private equity parasites who have made vets resemble US Healthcare.
However so long as those who pay most council tax will have to pay for their own social care, and to rub it in pay a couple or three hundred a week extra to subsidise council funded places as the councils get bulk discount, I can't see much support for extra council tax to sort it.
In Central Beds council 36% of the budget goes on adult social care and 25% on children's social care, of which a small proportion relates to transport.
Conversation on facebook (town group, 10,000 members) with independent councillor in Jan 2024.
Independent Councillor "A gentle reminder…. Tough decisions are having to be made at the moment due to the £19m short fall in the 2024/25 council budget."
Resident: "Where did the 19M go? Can we get some honesty for a change? It's easy to blame the previous administration, show us the losses"
Independent Councillor " Here are some of the answers: 1. Exponentially rising costs for SEND children transport costs 2. Much higher than anticipated costs for children and adult social care 3. Savings not realised for promised council efficiencies
If you look at some of the pinned posts you will see more of the actual detail. It’s late now hence not having all the correct facts and figures to hand."
Here is one of the earlier posts:
Independent Councillor "WHY IS CHILDREN'S SERVICES SO HIGH AND OVER FORECAST? We have a statutory duty to provide educational transport. The council has to provide it where the needs assessment (such as an EHCP) determines that the child requires it to access schooling.
Another earlier post by said Independent Councillor "It’s definitely a legacy left by the outgoing administration, i.e. the conservatives.
If we had seen more attention to children’s services, particularly the number of SEND places available in CBC, we wouldn’t need to spend as much on educational transport.
However, we must remember that the plight of CBC’s finances are replicated across the UK. Educational transport costs - a statutory duty - are causing huge financial strain on most unitary authorities."
"Modelling within the report predicts that the costs of providing SEND school transport will almost triple over a decade – from £397m in 2018/19 to £1.125bn in 2027/28 – with the number of children eligible for free school transport increasing 122% over the same period, from 58,000 to 129,000.
This increase is driven by the introduction of SEND legislation in 2014 and a subsequent explosion in the number of children receiving Education, Health and Care Plans (EHCPs) which set out the support they need, including transport to school. The number of students on these plans has doubled from 105,000 eight years ago to 230,000 in 2023."
And who was responsible for 2014 Send Legislation? Step Forrward Baron Wet of Chipping Norton. Current Foreign Sectretary.
Depressing. I wished they’d stuck to their line yesterday when they bumped into the French lads: “You’re shit, you’re shit, but your birds are fit.”
Make love not war, England.
There seems to be some uncertainty about this. There are reports that Albanians attacked the Serbs and the English were caught up in it as they were nearby.
"German police have dealt with an incident involving Albanian & Serbian fans near the centre of Gelsenkirchen. Most senior German police officer on the scene says at the moment they believe the incident did not involve England fans."
Still miss the little car that brings the ball to the centre circle for kickoff.
I presume they couldn't get a company to stump up the money to sponsor it. The rest of the tournament appears to be sponsored by the Chinese, BYD, HiSense, Alipay.
Depressing. I wished they’d stuck to their line yesterday when they bumped into the French lads: “You’re shit, you’re shit, but your birds are fit.”
Make love not war, England.
There seems to be some uncertainty about this. There are reports that Albanians attacked the Serbs and the English were caught up in it as they were nearby.
"German police have dealt with an incident involving Albanian & Serbian fans near the centre of Gelsenkirchen. Most senior German police officer on the scene says at the moment they believe the incident did not involve England fans."
Interesting. Thanks. Our reputation proceeds us. But hopefully that report is right. As I say, we were mixing reasonably well with France yesterday - and their fans take no prisoners (at least in club football). So fingers crossed 🤞
Depressing. I wished they’d stuck to their line yesterday when they bumped into the French lads: “You’re shit, you’re shit, but your birds are fit.”
Make love not war, England.
There seems to be some uncertainty about this. There are reports that Albanians attacked the Serbs and the English were caught up in it as they were nearby.
"German police have dealt with an incident involving Albanian & Serbian fans near the centre of Gelsenkirchen. Most senior German police officer on the scene says at the moment they believe the incident did not involve England fans."
Depressing. I wished they’d stuck to their line yesterday when they bumped into the French lads: “You’re shit, you’re shit, but your birds are fit.”
Make love not war, England.
There seems to be some uncertainty about this. There are reports that Albanians attacked the Serbs and the English were caught up in it as they were nearby.
"German police have dealt with an incident involving Albanian & Serbian fans near the centre of Gelsenkirchen. Most senior German police officer on the scene says at the moment they believe the incident did not involve England fans."
Interesting. Thanks. Our reputation proceeds is but hopefully that report is right. As I say, we were mixing reasonably well with France yesterday - and their fans take no prisoners (at least in club football). So fingers crossed 🤞
The Ch4 series on football cops was quite interesting on the state of violence in English game.
Ciff notes, the oldies are a load of softies these days or been banned from everything. The trouble they are having is young teenagers at lower league games, which is a bit worrying if they don't nip it in the bud for when they get to their late teens / early 20s.
Depressing. I wished they’d stuck to their line yesterday when they bumped into the French lads: “You’re shit, you’re shit, but your birds are fit.”
Make love not war, England.
There seems to be some uncertainty about this. There are reports that Albanians attacked the Serbs and the English were caught up in it as they were nearby.
"German police have dealt with an incident involving Albanian & Serbian fans near the centre of Gelsenkirchen. Most senior German police officer on the scene says at the moment they believe the incident did not involve England fans."
Interesting. Thanks. Our reputation proceeds is but hopefully that report is right. As I say, we were mixing reasonably well with France yesterday - and their fans take no prisoners (at least in club football). So fingers crossed 🤞
The Ch4 series on football cops was quite interesting on the state of violence in English game.
Ciffnotes, the oldies are a load of softies these days or banned. The trouble they are having is young teenagers at lower league games.
The thing that has put a strain on our councils finances in recent years is a tripling of children diagnosed with special needs which entitles them to free transport to school and accompanying vast taxi bill.
This interestingly started a few years after the ending of tax credits for more than two children unless one has a disability in which case they stay and there is a £3k disabled child allowance.
Any comment on that line makes you look like you want to put people in wheelchairs in workhouses, but a huge number of them have things like ADHD which are subjective diagnosis, not mobility affecting (and very lucrative tax credit/universal credit wise).
It is the sort of thing that the Tories have utterly failed to grasp.
Questions: Who is diagnosing them, how much are they paid. Why are taxi companies being enriched, what links to councillors do they have, why can't councils hire buses etc. etc.
Nope the killer bit is adult social care - special needs is very secondary to that
Adult social care still eats up a larger proportion of council budgets than children's services, but demand for the latter has grown more rapidly in recent years:
County council leaders have called for an ‘honest discussion’ about service delivery as new research reveals local authorities spend two-thirds of their budgets on care services. A new analysis by Pixel Financial Management (Pixel) for the County Councils Network (CCN) has revealed that councils are spending over £200 per person more on children’s services and adult social care compared to a decade ago.
The study found that per person spending on children’s services has risen 77% over the last 10 years and consumes almost a quarter (23%) of all council expenditure – up from 18% in 2014.
Spending on adult social care has risen by 48% per person over the same period.
CCN warned that spending on care was ‘squeezing’ the funding for other services such as libraries, road repairs, street lighting, and parks maintenance.
Cllr Roger Gough, CCN Spokesperson for Children’s Services said: ‘With more than two-thirds of the average county local authority’s budget now spent on just children’s services and adult social care, rising to three quarters in some areas, there is simply less and less each year for us to spend on highly valued services such as libraries, road repairs, and street lighting.
‘This month’s Budget confirmed that the public finances remain extremely tight. Therefore, we need to have an honest discussion with all main political parties as we head into the general election on what councils can reasonably be expected to deliver, in a climate where substantive extra funds are unlikely and both demand and costs are set to rise.’
Regardless, without either a large enough injection of cash or the removal of statutory responsibilities from councils, every authority in England that currently has to fund social care is eventually going to go bankrupt. All of them. Every county and every unitary. The tsunami of demand is something that can't be funded through efficiency savings or getting rid of diversity officers. Councils will end up ceasing to provide absolutely everything not strictly mandated by law and then, when there's nothing left to get rid of that they are allowed to get rid of, they'll fold anyway. It's simple maths.
Depressing. I wished they’d stuck to their line yesterday when they bumped into the French lads: “You’re shit, you’re shit, but your birds are fit.”
Make love not war, England.
There seems to be some uncertainty about this. There are reports that Albanians attacked the Serbs and the English were caught up in it as they were nearby.
"German police have dealt with an incident involving Albanian & Serbian fans near the centre of Gelsenkirchen. Most senior German police officer on the scene says at the moment they believe the incident did not involve England fans."
Very revealing how quickly Sky etc were drooling at the prospect of having a go at England fans vs covering the two terror attacks this tournament has already had. Just a despicable profession that should attract far more opprobrium.
The thing that has put a strain on our councils finances in recent years is a tripling of children diagnosed with special needs which entitles them to free transport to school and accompanying vast taxi bill.
This interestingly started a few years after the ending of tax credits for more than two children unless one has a disability in which case they stay and there is a £3k disabled child allowance.
Any comment on that line makes you look like you want to put people in wheelchairs in workhouses, but a huge number of them have things like ADHD which are subjective diagnosis, not mobility affecting (and very lucrative tax credit/universal credit wise).
It is the sort of thing that the Tories have utterly failed to grasp.
Questions: Who is diagnosing them, how much are they paid. Why are taxi companies being enriched, what links to councillors do they have, why can't councils hire buses etc. etc.
Nope the killer bit is adult social care - special needs is very secondary to that
Not round our way. Its child social care.
Agree Adult social care is a problem in a good few places. - and what is at the root of that? The same private equity parasites who have made vets resemble US Healthcare.
However so long as those who pay most council tax will have to pay for their own social care, and to rub it in pay a couple or three hundred a week extra to subsidise council funded places as the councils get bulk discount, I can't see much support for extra council tax to sort it.
In Central Beds council 36% of the budget goes on adult social care and 25% on children's social care, of which a small proportion relates to transport.
One of the things in life I can't get my head round is adult social care costs. I don't get how it's so expensive - often climbing towards £100k/yr yet the charities/companies running them that I audited in my old jobs were all basket cases on the brink of going under. Every other type of organisation I worked with I could get a good handle on where the money was going/how they ticked, yet I never could with them.
My first guess would be that mostly the money is going on carer salaries, on the basis that the care needs people to do it, often at a fairly low client:staff ratio. But I guess if it was just that it would be visible in the audit figures that that was where the money went?
Yep that used to be my assumption, but the one I can recount the P&L/SOFA from memory had staff costs at about 50% of income - even this year the Care visas they've taken full advantage of have not really helped things at all apparently. I'm a reasonably intelligent bloke and a decent auditor, yet for this entire sector I just can't work out how on earth it doesn't make money.
Don't the PE lot do the 'rent the building to our offshore company at an above market rate' trick?
The introduction of more council tax bands would not be a total surprise and it might be our fault. PB has previously discussed the much higher property taxes in the land of the free, and the difficulty of taking expensive homes out of the country.
Council tax was flawed from it's introduction as it did not have enough and fairer higher ranges
I actually support extending the ranges and at present the Welsh Labour government are proceeding with just that and using drones to assess people's land and gardens
Can't read i t, but the bit I can see is MAYBE and IN THE FUTURE and SATELLITES which is probably a misunderstanding of Google "Satellite View" (which is taken from aircraft) but could just be the absolutely normal commercial databases which ANY firm can buy if they want, whether taken from aircraft or satellites.
Edit: have been able to read it on a second try. NO MENTION OF DRONES OR SUCH SPECIFIC INTRUSION. It's all about systematic checking of what is evidently standard general commercial air photography. No dsifferent from looking at the OS map whcih is made by the same means.
'The Telegraph can now reveal the data that is currently being gathered by the Valuation Office, where officials are building an “automated valuation model” to prepare up-to-date values for all of the 1.5 million homes in Wales.
As part of this model, they are using “aerial and street view photography” in order to verify the size of houses and gardens.'
The introduction of more council tax bands would not be a total surprise and it might be our fault. PB has previously discussed the much higher property taxes in the land of the free, and the difficulty of taking expensive homes out of the country.
Council tax was flawed from it's introduction as it did not have enough and fairer higher ranges
I actually support extending the ranges and at present the Welsh Labour government are proceeding with just that and using drones to assess people's land and gardens
Can't read i t, but the bit I can see is MAYBE and IN THE FUTURE and SATELLITES which is probably a misunderstanding of Google "Satellite View" (which is taken from aircraft) but could just be the absolutely normal commercial databases which ANY firm can buy if they want, whether taken from aircraft or satellites.
Edit: have been able to read it on a second try. NO MENTION OF DRONES OR SUCH SPECIFIC INTRUSION. It's all about systematic checking of what is evidently standard general commercial air photography. No dsifferent from looking at the OS map whcih is made by the same means.
'The Telegraph can now reveal the data that is currently being gathered by the Valuation Office, where officials are building an “automated valuation model” to prepare up-to-date values for all of the 1.5 million homes in Wales.
As part of this model, they are using “aerial and street view photography” in order to verify the size of houses and gardens.'
I trust England are still taking the knee. If they don’t do that racism will return to the world
It's worse: they've convinced themselves it's racist not to take the knee.
Southgate, or a better manager, needs to tell them to stop it.
Are you joking? I was joking. Are they STILL taking the fucking knee for that dead fentanyl addict and proven villain? Why don’t they do a special hoppity skip for Jack the fucking ripper?
The thing that has put a strain on our councils finances in recent years is a tripling of children diagnosed with special needs which entitles them to free transport to school and accompanying vast taxi bill.
This interestingly started a few years after the ending of tax credits for more than two children unless one has a disability in which case they stay and there is a £3k disabled child allowance.
Any comment on that line makes you look like you want to put people in wheelchairs in workhouses, but a huge number of them have things like ADHD which are subjective diagnosis, not mobility affecting (and very lucrative tax credit/universal credit wise).
It is the sort of thing that the Tories have utterly failed to grasp.
Questions: Who is diagnosing them, how much are they paid. Why are taxi companies being enriched, what links to councillors do they have, why can't councils hire buses etc. etc.
Nope the killer bit is adult social care - special needs is very secondary to that
Not round our way. Its child social care.
Agree Adult social care is a problem in a good few places. - and what is at the root of that? The same private equity parasites who have made vets resemble US Healthcare.
However so long as those who pay most council tax will have to pay for their own social care, and to rub it in pay a couple or three hundred a week extra to subsidise council funded places as the councils get bulk discount, I can't see much support for extra council tax to sort it.
In Central Beds council 36% of the budget goes on adult social care and 25% on children's social care, of which a small proportion relates to transport.
One of the things in life I can't get my head round is adult social care costs. I don't get how it's so expensive - often climbing towards £100k/yr yet the charities/companies running them that I audited in my old jobs were all basket cases on the brink of going under. Every other type of organisation I worked with I could get a good handle on where the money was going/how they ticked, yet I never could with them.
My first guess would be that mostly the money is going on carer salaries, on the basis that the care needs people to do it, often at a fairly low client:staff ratio. But I guess if it was just that it would be visible in the audit figures that that was where the money went?
Yep that used to be my assumption, but the one I can recount the P&L/SOFA from memory had staff costs at about 50% of income - even this year the Care visas they've taken full advantage of have not really helped things at all apparently. I'm a reasonably intelligent bloke and a decent auditor, yet for this entire sector I just can't work out how on earth it doesn't make money.
Don't the PE lot do the 'rent the building to our offshore company at an above market rate' trick?
I'm sure some sale & leaseback (to connected parties) may go on - but it's not relevant for any of the ones I was involved with, which without exception were still struggling to stay afloat.
Who are the leaders of the future in the Conservative Party? The outstanding candidates standing fresh for the first time?
That's what I'll be looking for. To be fair, I think I'll be looking quite hard.
The other piece of analysis that would be interesting is: who is the challenger in each of these seats? Who is it the surviving MPs are scared of, because that fear may drive a lot of their choices about who should be leader.
I have the data for that. I will post it later this evening. As I mentioned at least 8 of these survivors have challengers within 1% of them.
That said I assume a fair few of those Tories who fall will also be within 1% of their successful opponent so it could just as easily seing the other way.
I trust England are still taking the knee. If they don’t do that racism will return to the world
It's worse: they've convinced themselves it's racist not to take the knee.
Southgate, or a better manager, needs to tell them to stop it.
Are you joking? I was joking. Are they STILL taking the fucking knee for that dead fentanyl addict and proven villain? Why don’t they do a special hoppity skip for Jack the fucking ripper?
The thing that has put a strain on our councils finances in recent years is a tripling of children diagnosed with special needs which entitles them to free transport to school and accompanying vast taxi bill.
This interestingly started a few years after the ending of tax credits for more than two children unless one has a disability in which case they stay and there is a £3k disabled child allowance.
Any comment on that line makes you look like you want to put people in wheelchairs in workhouses, but a huge number of them have things like ADHD which are subjective diagnosis, not mobility affecting (and very lucrative tax credit/universal credit wise).
It is the sort of thing that the Tories have utterly failed to grasp.
Questions: Who is diagnosing them, how much are they paid. Why are taxi companies being enriched, what links to councillors do they have, why can't councils hire buses etc. etc.
Nope the killer bit is adult social care - special needs is very secondary to that
Adult social care still eats up a larger proportion of council budgets than children's services, but demand for the latter has grown more rapidly in recent years:
County council leaders have called for an ‘honest discussion’ about service delivery as new research reveals local authorities spend two-thirds of their budgets on care services. A new analysis by Pixel Financial Management (Pixel) for the County Councils Network (CCN) has revealed that councils are spending over £200 per person more on children’s services and adult social care compared to a decade ago.
The study found that per person spending on children’s services has risen 77% over the last 10 years and consumes almost a quarter (23%) of all council expenditure – up from 18% in 2014.
Spending on adult social care has risen by 48% per person over the same period.
CCN warned that spending on care was ‘squeezing’ the funding for other services such as libraries, road repairs, street lighting, and parks maintenance.
Cllr Roger Gough, CCN Spokesperson for Children’s Services said: ‘With more than two-thirds of the average county local authority’s budget now spent on just children’s services and adult social care, rising to three quarters in some areas, there is simply less and less each year for us to spend on highly valued services such as libraries, road repairs, and street lighting.
‘This month’s Budget confirmed that the public finances remain extremely tight. Therefore, we need to have an honest discussion with all main political parties as we head into the general election on what councils can reasonably be expected to deliver, in a climate where substantive extra funds are unlikely and both demand and costs are set to rise.’
Regardless, without either a large enough injection of cash or the removal of statutory responsibilities from councils, every authority in England that currently has to fund social care is eventually going to go bankrupt. All of them. Every county and every unitary. The tsunami of demand is something that can't be funded through efficiency savings or getting rid of diversity officers. Councils will end up ceasing to provide absolutely everything not strictly mandated by law and then, when there's nothing left to get rid of that they are allowed to get rid of, they'll fold anyway. It's simple maths.
And so much of this is because of immigration
Well the kind of immigration we used to have from the EU before Brexit was a huge plus, because so much of it was young healthy working people making minimal demands on public services.
Xenophobia pushed by Tory politicians for their own ends has put a stop to that. Perhaps it's time to stop pushing xenophobia?
The thing that has put a strain on our councils finances in recent years is a tripling of children diagnosed with special needs which entitles them to free transport to school and accompanying vast taxi bill.
This interestingly started a few years after the ending of tax credits for more than two children unless one has a disability in which case they stay and there is a £3k disabled child allowance.
Any comment on that line makes you look like you want to put people in wheelchairs in workhouses, but a huge number of them have things like ADHD which are subjective diagnosis, not mobility affecting (and very lucrative tax credit/universal credit wise).
It is the sort of thing that the Tories have utterly failed to grasp.
Questions: Who is diagnosing them, how much are they paid. Why are taxi companies being enriched, what links to councillors do they have, why can't councils hire buses etc. etc.
Nope the killer bit is adult social care - special needs is very secondary to that
Adult social care still eats up a larger proportion of council budgets than children's services, but demand for the latter has grown more rapidly in recent years:
County council leaders have called for an ‘honest discussion’ about service delivery as new research reveals local authorities spend two-thirds of their budgets on care services. A new analysis by Pixel Financial Management (Pixel) for the County Councils Network (CCN) has revealed that councils are spending over £200 per person more on children’s services and adult social care compared to a decade ago.
The study found that per person spending on children’s services has risen 77% over the last 10 years and consumes almost a quarter (23%) of all council expenditure – up from 18% in 2014.
Spending on adult social care has risen by 48% per person over the same period.
CCN warned that spending on care was ‘squeezing’ the funding for other services such as libraries, road repairs, street lighting, and parks maintenance.
Cllr Roger Gough, CCN Spokesperson for Children’s Services said: ‘With more than two-thirds of the average county local authority’s budget now spent on just children’s services and adult social care, rising to three quarters in some areas, there is simply less and less each year for us to spend on highly valued services such as libraries, road repairs, and street lighting.
‘This month’s Budget confirmed that the public finances remain extremely tight. Therefore, we need to have an honest discussion with all main political parties as we head into the general election on what councils can reasonably be expected to deliver, in a climate where substantive extra funds are unlikely and both demand and costs are set to rise.’
Regardless, without either a large enough injection of cash or the removal of statutory responsibilities from councils, every authority in England that currently has to fund social care is eventually going to go bankrupt. All of them. Every county and every unitary. The tsunami of demand is something that can't be funded through efficiency savings or getting rid of diversity officers. Councils will end up ceasing to provide absolutely everything not strictly mandated by law and then, when there's nothing left to get rid of that they are allowed to get rid of, they'll fold anyway. It's simple maths.
And so much of this is because of immigration
Surely, by your own logic, importing people from countries with lower life expectancy to do the work in care homes helps solve the problem?
I trust England are still taking the knee. If they don’t do that racism will return to the world
It's worse: they've convinced themselves it's racist not to take the knee.
Southgate, or a better manager, needs to tell them to stop it.
Are you joking? I was joking. Are they STILL taking the fucking knee for that dead fentanyl addict and proven villain? Why don’t they do a special hoppity skip for Jack the fucking ripper?
Stop being a racist prick.
Do you think they should still take the knee? Its fucking ludicrous
Comments
It is therefore vital for those wanting a free Ukraine that Biden is re elected and Macron's party recovers in France
That's local democracy.
This interestingly started a few years after the ending of tax credits for more than two children unless one has a disability in which case they stay and there is a £3k disabled child allowance.
Any comment on that line makes you look like you want to put people in wheelchairs in workhouses, but a huge number of them have things like ADHD which are subjective diagnosis, not mobility affecting (and very lucrative tax credit/universal credit wise).
It is the sort of thing that the Tories have utterly failed to grasp.
Questions: Who is diagnosing them, how much are they paid. Why are taxi companies being enriched, what links to councillors do they have, why can't councils hire buses etc. etc.
I'm fine. Quite enjoying myself, actually.
The mob on here (not you) have led to several esteemed below the line posters permanently leaving the site - many of whom have privately got in contact with me, and it's pissed me off - and I've worked out being reasonable achieves nothing so I simply match them now with a corresponding level of aggression, and quite frankly they often deserve it.
The Reform UK leader offered his view on the public speaking abilities of Nazi Germany dictator Hitler when asked about him during a live BBC phone-in.
He also suggested Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelensky should enter negotiations with Russia, although he acknowledged Kyiv’s Western allies will continue support to support them.
Mr Farage, challenged about his previous remarks praising Russian president Mr Putin as an operator, told Nicky Campbell on BBC Radio 5 Live: “Yeah, but not as a human being.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/nigel-farage-adolf-hitler-vladimir-putin-volodymyr-zelensky-bbc-b2562595.html
"Drones" tagreting individual properties don't make sense at all except for specific fraud investigations - in which case there are legal powers. (Which would answer the very reasonable point RT makes.)
'Leftwingers with fizz, were you still up for Liz?'
Yeah. I might buy into that.
Agree Adult social care is a problem in a good few places. - and what is at the root of that? The same private equity parasites who have made vets resemble US Healthcare.
However so long as those who pay most council tax will have to pay for their own social care, and to rub it in pay a couple or three hundred a week extra to subsidise council funded places as the councils get bulk discount, I can't see much support for extra council tax to sort it.
Farage can go fxck himself . I’d rather the Tories avoided carnage at the GE and see Farage piss of to the USA to support his other hero Trump .
Apparently major consternation on the street WhatsApp group that the council have given up cutting the verges. And quite rightly, this is third world territory.
We've had ten years of central government punching down on local authorities, pushing them toward I'll advised property investments. Something has to give.
So, other than a few quasi nationalised industries like Rail and nuclear, where vast taxpayer subsidies pay for effective enforcement, any company trying to comply and do a good job will be beaten in the tender process by one that cuts corners.
So the choice is certain bankruptcy, or a small risk of bankruptcy if it is your job that goes catastrophically wrong.
Your view depends on seeing the US as the only real actor in this with European countries reduced to being merely pawns. In a strange way you see eye to eye with Putin.
County council leaders have called for an ‘honest discussion’ about service delivery as new research reveals local authorities spend two-thirds of their budgets on care services.
A new analysis by Pixel Financial Management (Pixel) for the County Councils Network (CCN) has revealed that councils are spending over £200 per person more on children’s services and adult social care compared to a decade ago.
The study found that per person spending on children’s services has risen 77% over the last 10 years and consumes almost a quarter (23%) of all council expenditure – up from 18% in 2014.
Spending on adult social care has risen by 48% per person over the same period.
CCN warned that spending on care was ‘squeezing’ the funding for other services such as libraries, road repairs, street lighting, and parks maintenance.
Cllr Roger Gough, CCN Spokesperson for Children’s Services said: ‘With more than two-thirds of the average county local authority’s budget now spent on just children’s services and adult social care, rising to three quarters in some areas, there is simply less and less each year for us to spend on highly valued services such as libraries, road repairs, and street lighting.
‘This month’s Budget confirmed that the public finances remain extremely tight. Therefore, we need to have an honest discussion with all main political parties as we head into the general election on what councils can reasonably be expected to deliver, in a climate where substantive extra funds are unlikely and both demand and costs are set to rise.’
https://www.localgov.co.uk/CCN-Two-thirds-of-council-budgets-spent-on-care/59063#:~:text=The study found that per,person over the same period.
Regardless, without either a large enough injection of cash or the removal of statutory responsibilities from councils, every authority in England that currently has to fund social care is eventually going to go bankrupt. All of them. Every county and every unitary. The tsunami of demand is something that can't be funded through efficiency savings or getting rid of diversity officers. Councils will end up ceasing to provide absolutely everything not strictly mandated by law and then, when there's nothing left to get rid of that they are allowed to get rid of, they'll fold anyway. It's simple maths.
But is there any example you can think of where Trump has done anything other than fawn over Putin? And is there any indication that the Trump-wing of the Republican Party has been supportive of Ukraine. (Indeed, almost all of Trump's most vocal backers have been actually anti-Ukraine.)
To be fair though even 37 projected seats for the Liberals would be higher than the 34 Liberal seats Trudeau inherited after the Liberal trouncing in 2011 when they trailed both Harper's re elected Conservatives and the NDP. Trudeau has also won 3 general elections for the Liberals since
I then discovered that taxis between 7AM and 9AM were block booked by the local authority and had a 45 minute walk with my luggage. Luckily the overnight monsoon had abated.
https://www.centralbedfordshire.gov.uk/info/141/budget/1568/budget_2024-2025/2
(This is in contrast to the Biden White House which has imposed conditions on Ukraine and made it fight with one hand tied behind its back as well as limiting what US allies can do to help.)
There are very many on here who could fit in the same category yourself included
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/ai-will-change-everything-so-why-is-the-election-ignoring-it/
Although I am very much in the camp that AI isn't going to be all jobs in every sector in 2-3 years, not to be even having a discussion about how it will effect education and work is quite crazy. We know productivity is piss poor, we should be looking at what it can do for many aspects of the state (this is where Big Dom was actually onto something).
The GE is quite weird. Labour nor Tories really have any big new ideas, its just rehashing old policies with new names as if the world hasn't changed at all since 1997. Other big issues like knife crime, shop lifting, phone snatching, the most I have heard is some nonsense from Labour about well we will make Apple make it harder to reactivate them (but they already all go to China where this is irrelevant).
He is the Rogerdamus of the tech and political world.
However, the main point is Welsh Labour is about to revalue and implement new council tax bands from next April or the year after
Make love not war, England.
Southgate, or a better manager, needs to tell
them to stop it.
Who are the leaders of the future in the Conservative Party? The outstanding candidates standing fresh for the first time?
That's what I'll be looking for. To be fair, I think I'll be looking quite hard.
But funny.
And it looks like they were right and will reap at least some reward. Cynical and sad though it may be.
- FIFA-like radar overlays
- player recognition
- pass distance measurement
- ball speed and trajectory tracking during shots
https://x.com/skalskip92/status/1802361043727098355
Instead we get f##king Wayne Rooney taking bollocks.
Look at North Shropshire
You Gov
Lib Dem 40, Con 25, Lab 19 Reform 11 Green 3
Survation Lib Dem 19 Con 30, Lab 25 Reform 18 Green 4
Somebody is hideously wrong or both.
Treat it all with scepticism, look at who is funding the polls, maybe that is an indicator, maybe not.
There are many others in that list of 72, likewise there are some strange ones in the Labour and Lib Dem column.
https://www.gov.wales/council-tax-reform
This is an e-Brompton towing an active wheelchair. Kate is privileged and a professional, so can afford cost of this setup of £2.5k+, even using a second hand Brompton - and also has other cycles and aids for other requirements, a car etc. Plus she is a campaigns officer for a national disabled charity, and does not embarrass easily. An active wheelchair is one using crossover tech developed for competition wheelchairs, which weigh 6kg to 15kg, rather than 20-30kg for a normal wheelchair, and cost £500 to £15,000 depending on how exotic it is. There is a stick in the front bag.
A business day in London for Kate might be cycle like this to Derby Station, train to St Pancras, cycle to say Wandsworth or Blackheath, use the wheelchair on the premises (Kate cannot do much more - except on a good day - than walk around the house). Then reverse the journey after meetings etc.
Enforcement officers of all kinds often seem to think they are Jesus. It is a constant experience of disabled people using cycles of whatever type as their mobility aid to be told to "pick up your mobility aid and walk". Here's one from from St Pancras Station:
https://x.com/tandemkate/status/1668649068002697220
St Pancras staff are normally good, and deserve praise, as here - plus some coping strategies and 'lived experience'
.https://x.com/tandemkate/status/1656322127241396225
A fascinating thing for me is the ingrained and observable-in-practice attitude, even when denied, that disabled people are a sort of afflicted "them" who "we" can choose to help - rather than part of "us". In reality the change from "able bodied" to "disabled" happens at random in the blink of an eye, as simply as a dozy driver going through a red light when you crossing the road.
Conversation on facebook (town group, 10,000 members) with independent councillor in Jan 2024.
Independent Councillor "A gentle reminder….
Tough decisions are having to be made at the moment due to the £19m short fall in the 2024/25 council budget."
Resident: "Where did the 19M go? Can we get some honesty for a change? It's easy to blame the previous administration, show us the losses"
Independent Councillor "
Here are some of the answers:
1. Exponentially rising costs for SEND children transport costs
2. Much higher than anticipated costs for children and adult social care
3. Savings not realised for promised council efficiencies
If you look at some of the pinned posts you will see more of the actual detail. It’s late now hence not having all the correct facts and figures to hand."
Here is one of the earlier posts:
Independent Councillor "WHY IS CHILDREN'S SERVICES SO HIGH AND OVER FORECAST?
We have a statutory duty to provide educational transport. The council has to provide it where the needs assessment (such as an EHCP) determines that the child requires it to access schooling.
Another earlier post by said Independent Councillor "It’s definitely a legacy left by the outgoing administration, i.e. the conservatives.
If we had seen more attention to children’s services, particularly the number of SEND places available in CBC, we wouldn’t need to spend as much on educational transport.
However, we must remember that the plight of CBC’s finances are replicated across the UK. Educational transport costs - a statutory duty - are causing huge financial strain on most unitary authorities."
This assertion is backed up here:
https://www.countycouncilsnetwork.org.uk/spiralling-send-transport-budgets-threaten-financial-sustainability-of-englands-largest-councils-report-reveals/
"Modelling within the report predicts that the costs of providing SEND school transport will almost triple over a decade – from £397m in 2018/19 to £1.125bn in 2027/28 – with the number of children eligible for free school transport increasing 122% over the same period, from 58,000 to 129,000.
This increase is driven by the introduction of SEND legislation in 2014 and a subsequent explosion in the number of children receiving Education, Health and Care Plans (EHCPs) which set out the support they need, including transport to school. The number of students on these plans has doubled from 105,000 eight years ago to 230,000 in 2023."
And who was responsible for 2014 Send Legislation? Step Forrward Baron Wet of Chipping Norton. Current Foreign Sectretary.
People like you and me are like aristos in st Petersburg in 1915, or Jews in krakow in 1938. GO
"German police have dealt with an incident involving Albanian & Serbian fans near the centre of Gelsenkirchen. Most senior German police officer on the scene says at the moment they believe the incident did not involve England fans."
https://x.com/SkySportsNews/status/1802357897503940949
https://www.theguardian.com/football/article/2024/jun/16/england-and-serbia-fans-clash-in-gelsenkirchen-before-euro-2024-game
Ciff notes, the oldies are a load of softies these days or been banned from everything. The trouble they are having is young teenagers at lower league games, which is a bit worrying if they don't nip it in the bud for when they get to their late teens / early 20s.
That said I assume a fair few of those Tories who fall will also be within 1% of their successful opponent so it could just as easily seing the other way.
Xenophobia pushed by Tory politicians for their own ends has put a stop to that. Perhaps it's time to stop pushing xenophobia?