Nigel Farage @Nigel_Farage Latest polling by Survation now predicts Reform UK will win 7 seats. The momentum is building.
Almost enough to fill a taxi? 😂
The chances of Exeter/Exmouth going Reform seem vanishingly small. I could see Clacton, Boston, and maybe a red wall or two, otherwise I struggle to see how a very weak ground game delivers any seats at all.
The SNP score is particularly disappointing for me and I find it hard to relate to what I am seeing on the ground in Scotland. The SNP are almost invisible because they have no money. We have had 1 leaflet from the SNP and 6 from the Tories (neither Labour nor the Lib Dems are wasting their time in this constituency, I am not even sure Reform are standing). This is in an SNP seat.
Will that make a difference, other than to the recycling bins? Who knows, but it is a long time since the SNP have had so little impact in a major election. I will be gutted if they pick up 37 seats, gutted.
On the ground in ANME: Tories - their freepost is dropping. Addressed to household not voter. No other activity that we are aware of SNP - no money but plenty of bodies. Extensively doorknocking. Labour - nothing at all Reform - nothing at all LibDem - selected doorknocking. We're targeting key wards rather than the whole constituency. Targets will get quite a lot of stuff through the letterbox. Plus a targeted Facebook ad campaign which will be pretty intensive in the remaining weeks
As for the SNP, we're getting that much of their vote is softer than usual. A lot of upset about the state of public services. The odd mention of corruption. Frequent mentions of arrogance and being taken for granted...
I guess likely outcome there is Tories & SNP in mid-30s with Lab 3rd and Libs 4th. Think Ross will edge it. Sorry, but I doubt there is a huge suppressed LibDem vote just waiting to surge out from Buckie, Fraserburgh and Peterhead.
Its possible! You've said a couple of times that there isn't a suppressed LD vote - it isn't suppressed! We have councillors! As for finishing behind Labour? Sure - could happen. But there is no sign of a Labour vote here either - finished 4th in 2019 and have zero representation.
Ross vs Logan? I think Logan. Ross is deeply unpopular even amongst his own people - they leaked the "we think his expenses are dodgy" story last weekend and provided quotes to the newspaper...
It was quite the thing, to see a Tory getting the Rayner treatment from his own side. Even - especially - if it did not come to anything in the end.
Plenty came of it. IPSA have cleared his dirty laundry as clean. Fine. Respect that. Not sure all the people who saw them will feel the same. It smells wrong, even if it is in order. In an election, feel matters way more than fact.
His newly adopted local association threw him under the bus. With what they believed to be a scandal they had helped cover up. Complete with quotes. *Even the Tories* felt it was wrong, rules or not.
The key scandal remains the abrupt sacking of Duguid. Tories demand that sick peopl go back to work - unless they are in the way. That action is definitely wrong, and the stench remains pungent.
If Ross turns up to the hustings on Thursday it could be interesting.
The Duguid thing is very unfortunate and delicate. He most certainly was not thrown under a bus. Circumstances made his candidature unviable. He's not just a bit sick I'm afraid. It's a sad situation.
In no way was his candidature unviable. He would not be able to campaign in person. His team would continue to push his name and his message as he continues to recover.
Remember that he remained on the candidate list and was selected whilst far more seriously ill than he is now. And he is getting better every day.
What they did to him was genuinely disgusting. And from what I read / hear it is universally felt.
No. You're wrong. While opinions may vary about whether Douglas Ross was right to go for the seat - he's taking a huge risk - there is no controversy among those close to this that DD simply couldn't stand. Appreciate the optics look bad but that's the situation.
But optics *are* part of politics. Mr Ross should have followed the other half of his seat - or just stopped being a pluralist tout court and stuck with his MSP seat.
You mean he could have kept the promise he'd previously given?
There are tens, or even hundreds of thousands of BigGs out there. People who will say all sorts of things to pollsters, but who, in the quiet of the polling booth or discussing a postal vote with their wives over the kitchen table, will come home to the Tories.
There are no loyal Faragists. He’s a fling. A bit of rough. In the end they come back. Not the erstwhile Labour voters, they’re going back to that home, but the habitual Conservative voters.
That’s why the conservatives will end up with a vote share beginning with 3, and about 200 seats.
Do you fancy a bet on this?
Not a huge one, but let’s say £100. If Tories are 28% or above you pay me, if they are 24% or below I pay you, if 24-28 we call it quits.
That’s a bit boring
Let’s make it below 26% I win; above 26% you win
But just £50. Enough for a pleasant solo lunch
Deal
🥂👍
That’s a nice bet. We both have a decent chance, but we are betting what we sincerely believe
The other good thing is I’m betting against what I sincerely wish for. I want to see the Conservatives obliterated.
New polling by Charlesbye Communications shows that Cameron is the public’s preferred candidate to assume the leadership again after the election. He was on 25 per cent, with Farage on 20 per cent, one point ahead of Mordaunt, with the current bookmakers’ favourite Kemi Badenoch on 8 per cent. In the same survey, 2019 Tory voters put Mordaunt top on 27 per cent, three ahead of Cameron and four ahead of Farage, with Badenoch on 6 per cent.
As I was saying, we need the Cameron party (incorporating the Lib Dems) and the Farage party (incorporating the ERG and a bit of old Labour).
The job of the next Tory leader is to unite the right. It can't be someone who repels part of the voter coalition they need to put back together. At the mo I would say Penny Mordaunt seems best-placed.
Mordaunt loses her Portsmouth N seat to Labour on most current polls, Labour won it in 1997
How much of a personal vote does Mordaunt have? As a possible future leader, does that buy her some extra support?
It will be interesting to see how both Mordaunt and Mercer perform in terms of personal vote. Both will find it tough to retain their seats but it might be that personal vote makes all the difference. I can't see personal vote helping Rees Mogg unless it is because he has forced all his indentured tenants to vote for him.
Ress Mogg is popular with likely Reform voters though and hard Brexiteers, so may stem leakage to Reform. Rosindell and Francois could hold on in the same manner as they could easily be Reform MPs
Has anyone yet looked at these MRP polls and worked out what the likely makeup of the rump Tory party is going to be if they turn out to be accurate? I suspect that will have a far bigger impact on the post election fate of the Tories than the basic result itself.
Nigel Farage @Nigel_Farage Latest polling by Survation now predicts Reform UK will win 7 seats. The momentum is building.
Almost enough to fill a taxi? 😂
The chances of Exeter/Exmouth going Reform seem vanishingly small. I could see Clacton, Boston, and maybe a red wall or two, otherwise I struggle to see how a very weak ground game delivers any seats at all.
The Russians just haven't had time to organise widely enough.
New polling by Charlesbye Communications shows that Cameron is the public’s preferred candidate to assume the leadership again after the election. He was on 25 per cent, with Farage on 20 per cent, one point ahead of Mordaunt, with the current bookmakers’ favourite Kemi Badenoch on 8 per cent. In the same survey, 2019 Tory voters put Mordaunt top on 27 per cent, three ahead of Cameron and four ahead of Farage, with Badenoch on 6 per cent.
As I was saying, we need the Cameron party (incorporating the Lib Dems) and the Farage party (incorporating the ERG and a bit of old Labour).
The job of the next Tory leader is to unite the right. It can't be someone who repels part of the voter coalition they need to put back together. At the mo I would say Penny Mordaunt seems best-placed.
Mordaunt loses her Portsmouth N seat to Labour on most current polls, Labour won it in 1997
How much of a personal vote does Mordaunt have? As a possible future leader, does that buy her some extra support?
It will be interesting to see how both Mordaunt and Mercer perform in terms of personal vote. Both will find it tough to retain their seats but it might be that personal vote makes all the difference. I can't see personal vote helping Rees Mogg unless it is because he has forced all his indentured tenants to vote for him.
Ress Mogg is popular with likely Reform voters though and hard Brexiteers, so may stem leakage to Reform. Rosindell and Francois could hold on in the same manner as they could easily be Reform MPs
JRM is detested by a large number of actual Tories though. If he holds, it will be by tens.
Since things seem a bit quiet atm (by the standards of this campaign), who is everyone else's favourite sets of enemies on here? Personally I enjoy the @Leon V a small crew the most (and his ripostes which while variable are awesome, those who want him off the site can fuck off imo) with those who try to take on @Heathener probably coming up second (and again, her ripostes, although they're nowhere near as funny as Leon's are more delightfully vicious).
Plus those two rather dislike each other which is also fun.
And then there's @Casino_Royale versus the world, depending on sobriety and what he had for breakfast. Also awesomely ridiculous.
@BartholomewRoberts often gets piled on but I don't think anyone viscerally dislikes him. And @Dura_Ace piles on everyone else in an extremely entertaining way but also no one seems upset.
I'm sorry to those I've missed out but would like to know so I can see the simmering resentment in future posts.
It's also interesting that with the possible exception of Casino and Heathener none of the above seem to actually be any good at betting.
There was a moment last weekend when one of Rishi Sunak’s closest allies thought he had thrown in the towel. Badly bruised by the fury about his decision to come home early from the D-Day commemorations, the prime minister contemplated a disappearing act. “He was in a really bad way at the weekend,” one confidant revealed. “He wasn’t going to quit, but he was mulling whether he needed to completely remove himself from the election and let other people do it.”
On Monday, however, Sunak had snapped out of his depression. One of those who was on his 2022 leadership team, when he lost to Liz Truss, said: “He’s like he was then. He was down for the first half of the campaign and then he decided he was just going to throw everything at it. His attitude is that he has to go out and swing for the fences.”
He'll get more respect in the long run for going down fighting and with some dignity. After the election he can make a statement saying he will be resigning as Prime minister and recommending Sir Keir Starmer as his successor. He can then meet with his Conservative parliamentary colleagues to decide what the party ought to do.
He would have got considerably more respect from me acknowledging that he was totally incapable of being Prime Minister, and leaving with some dignity when his polling levelled with post-minibudget Truss, enabling someone else to steward the party through six months of Government and try to turn things around. Instead he selfishly plunged the party into a GE, jettisoning his own policy programme.
That Reform seat list doesn't pass the smell test. The unexpectedly good SNP total might, however. The woad and tartan hardcore of the pro-independence vote is quite large, and they don't really have anywhere else to go. Nobody thinks the Scottish Greens or Alba are going to win any seats.
I maintain my assumption that the Tory membership will probably install Suella as the next leader, assuming that she is returned.
They won't get the chance. Tory MPs pick the final 2 and are more likely to pick Barclay and Tugendhat, both in ultra safe seats, or Cleverly if he holds Braintree which was Labour in 1997 and goes Labour again on some projections
This very much depends on the nature of the surviving Conservative MPs. Which, to be perfectly honest, would require one to generate a list of the likely remnants from a drubbing and make a guess as to their inclinations, which I can't be bothered to do. Is it your opinion that the remnant is likely not to be inclined to go charging off further to the right?
Yes, firstly as lots of ERG Leave MPs in the redwall and Leave marginal seats in areas like the Midlands, Wales, the North, Kent and Essex will lose their seats.
Second as CCHQ ensured the shortlists given to Tory Associations in safe seats where incumbent Tory MPs stood down were only Sunak loyalist centrists
The SNP score is particularly disappointing for me and I find it hard to relate to what I am seeing on the ground in Scotland. The SNP are almost invisible because they have no money. We have had 1 leaflet from the SNP and 6 from the Tories (neither Labour nor the Lib Dems are wasting their time in this constituency, I am not even sure Reform are standing). This is in an SNP seat.
Will that make a difference, other than to the recycling bins? Who knows, but it is a long time since the SNP have had so little impact in a major election. I will be gutted if they pick up 37 seats, gutted.
On the ground in ANME: Tories - their freepost is dropping. Addressed to household not voter. No other activity that we are aware of SNP - no money but plenty of bodies. Extensively doorknocking. Labour - nothing at all Reform - nothing at all LibDem - selected doorknocking. We're targeting key wards rather than the whole constituency. Targets will get quite a lot of stuff through the letterbox. Plus a targeted Facebook ad campaign which will be pretty intensive in the remaining weeks
As for the SNP, we're getting that much of their vote is softer than usual. A lot of upset about the state of public services. The odd mention of corruption. Frequent mentions of arrogance and being taken for granted...
I guess likely outcome there is Tories & SNP in mid-30s with Lab 3rd and Libs 4th. Think Ross will edge it. Sorry, but I doubt there is a huge suppressed LibDem vote just waiting to surge out from Buckie, Fraserburgh and Peterhead.
Its possible! You've said a couple of times that there isn't a suppressed LD vote - it isn't suppressed! We have councillors! As for finishing behind Labour? Sure - could happen. But there is no sign of a Labour vote here either - finished 4th in 2019 and have zero representation.
Ross vs Logan? I think Logan. Ross is deeply unpopular even amongst his own people - they leaked the "we think his expenses are dodgy" story last weekend and provided quotes to the newspaper...
It was quite the thing, to see a Tory getting the Rayner treatment from his own side. Even - especially - if it did not come to anything in the end.
Plenty came of it. IPSA have cleared his dirty laundry as clean. Fine. Respect that. Not sure all the people who saw them will feel the same. It smells wrong, even if it is in order. In an election, feel matters way more than fact.
His newly adopted local association threw him under the bus. With what they believed to be a scandal they had helped cover up. Complete with quotes. *Even the Tories* felt it was wrong, rules or not.
The key scandal remains the abrupt sacking of Duguid. Tories demand that sick peopl go back to work - unless they are in the way. That action is definitely wrong, and the stench remains pungent.
If Ross turns up to the hustings on Thursday it could be interesting.
The Duguid thing is very unfortunate and delicate. He most certainly was not thrown under a bus. Circumstances made his candidature unviable. He's not just a bit sick I'm afraid. It's a sad situation.
In no way was his candidature unviable. He would not be able to campaign in person. His team would continue to push his name and his message as he continues to recover.
Remember that he remained on the candidate list and was selected whilst far more seriously ill than he is now. And he is getting better every day.
What they did to him was genuinely disgusting. And from what I read / hear it is universally felt.
No. You're wrong. While opinions may vary about whether Douglas Ross was right to go for the seat - he's taking a huge risk - there is no controversy among those close to this that DD simply couldn't stand. Appreciate the optics look bad but that's the situation.
Aside; The LD MP for Cheadle died 24 days from terminal cancer after being re-elected in 2005. Is being ill a barrier to standing in an election?
in short, no...
if someone dies before the close of nominations then they are withdrawn if they die following the close of nominations but before election day then the contest doesn't happen on election day and a by-election is held separately (as happened in 1997 I think) if they die following the election day it's a standard by-election.
2005 South Staffordshire was on the 23rd June.
Cheers, I knew I remembered one. reading up on south staffs, they changed the rules following it to allow the nominating party to nominate again
The SNP score is particularly disappointing for me and I find it hard to relate to what I am seeing on the ground in Scotland. The SNP are almost invisible because they have no money. We have had 1 leaflet from the SNP and 6 from the Tories (neither Labour nor the Lib Dems are wasting their time in this constituency, I am not even sure Reform are standing). This is in an SNP seat.
Will that make a difference, other than to the recycling bins? Who knows, but it is a long time since the SNP have had so little impact in a major election. I will be gutted if they pick up 37 seats, gutted.
On the ground in ANME: Tories - their freepost is dropping. Addressed to household not voter. No other activity that we are aware of SNP - no money but plenty of bodies. Extensively doorknocking. Labour - nothing at all Reform - nothing at all LibDem - selected doorknocking. We're targeting key wards rather than the whole constituency. Targets will get quite a lot of stuff through the letterbox. Plus a targeted Facebook ad campaign which will be pretty intensive in the remaining weeks
As for the SNP, we're getting that much of their vote is softer than usual. A lot of upset about the state of public services. The odd mention of corruption. Frequent mentions of arrogance and being taken for granted...
I guess likely outcome there is Tories & SNP in mid-30s with Lab 3rd and Libs 4th. Think Ross will edge it. Sorry, but I doubt there is a huge suppressed LibDem vote just waiting to surge out from Buckie, Fraserburgh and Peterhead.
Its possible! You've said a couple of times that there isn't a suppressed LD vote - it isn't suppressed! We have councillors! As for finishing behind Labour? Sure - could happen. But there is no sign of a Labour vote here either - finished 4th in 2019 and have zero representation.
Ross vs Logan? I think Logan. Ross is deeply unpopular even amongst his own people - they leaked the "we think his expenses are dodgy" story last weekend and provided quotes to the newspaper...
It was quite the thing, to see a Tory getting the Rayner treatment from his own side. Even - especially - if it did not come to anything in the end.
Plenty came of it. IPSA have cleared his dirty laundry as clean. Fine. Respect that. Not sure all the people who saw them will feel the same. It smells wrong, even if it is in order. In an election, feel matters way more than fact.
His newly adopted local association threw him under the bus. With what they believed to be a scandal they had helped cover up. Complete with quotes. *Even the Tories* felt it was wrong, rules or not.
The key scandal remains the abrupt sacking of Duguid. Tories demand that sick peopl go back to work - unless they are in the way. That action is definitely wrong, and the stench remains pungent.
If Ross turns up to the hustings on Thursday it could be interesting.
The Duguid thing is very unfortunate and delicate. He most certainly was not thrown under a bus. Circumstances made his candidature unviable. He's not just a bit sick I'm afraid. It's a sad situation.
In no way was his candidature unviable. He would not be able to campaign in person. His team would continue to push his name and his message as he continues to recover.
Remember that he remained on the candidate list and was selected whilst far more seriously ill than he is now. And he is getting better every day.
What they did to him was genuinely disgusting. And from what I read / hear it is universally felt.
No. You're wrong. While opinions may vary about whether Douglas Ross was right to go for the seat - he's taking a huge risk - there is no controversy among those close to this that DD simply couldn't stand. Appreciate the optics look bad but that's the situation.
Given that DD himself seems to think he could have, you're essentially implying there is more to this than his condition. Or that he is lying or deluded.
That may be the case, I've no idea. But it's hard to escape that conclusion.
New polling by Charlesbye Communications shows that Cameron is the public’s preferred candidate to assume the leadership again after the election. He was on 25 per cent, with Farage on 20 per cent, one point ahead of Mordaunt, with the current bookmakers’ favourite Kemi Badenoch on 8 per cent. In the same survey, 2019 Tory voters put Mordaunt top on 27 per cent, three ahead of Cameron and four ahead of Farage, with Badenoch on 6 per cent.
As I was saying, we need the Cameron party (incorporating the Lib Dems) and the Farage party (incorporating the ERG and a bit of old Labour).
The job of the next Tory leader is to unite the right. It can't be someone who repels part of the voter coalition they need to put back together. At the mo I would say Penny Mordaunt seems best-placed.
Mordaunt loses her Portsmouth N seat to Labour on most current polls, Labour won it in 1997
How much of a personal vote does Mordaunt have? As a possible future leader, does that buy her some extra support?
It will be interesting to see how both Mordaunt and Mercer perform in terms of personal vote. Both will find it tough to retain their seats but it might be that personal vote makes all the difference. I can't see personal vote helping Rees Mogg unless it is because he has forced all his indentured tenants to vote for him.
Ress Mogg is popular with likely Reform voters though and hard Brexiteers, so may stem leakage to Reform. Rosindell and Francois could hold on in the same manner as they could easily be Reform MPs
Has anyone yet looked at these MRP polls and worked out what the likely makeup of the rump Tory party is going to be if they turn out to be accurate? I suspect that will have a far bigger impact on the post election fate of the Tories than the basic result itself.
My guess is that Reform will be strongest where UKIP was strongest - i.e. the Red Wall seats the Conservatives won in 2019, and a lot of the East coast from Kent up.
These are the seats where the Brexit vote was a vote against immigration, and where they feel they have been betrayed: not just by immigration, but also by levelling up and the cancelling of the HS2 extension.
I guess the Conservative vote will hold up better in more prosperous parts of the UK - the South East and in suburban areas: i.e. places where the principal challenge to the Conservatives is from the LibDems.
The SNP score is particularly disappointing for me and I find it hard to relate to what I am seeing on the ground in Scotland. The SNP are almost invisible because they have no money. We have had 1 leaflet from the SNP and 6 from the Tories (neither Labour nor the Lib Dems are wasting their time in this constituency, I am not even sure Reform are standing). This is in an SNP seat.
Will that make a difference, other than to the recycling bins? Who knows, but it is a long time since the SNP have had so little impact in a major election. I will be gutted if they pick up 37 seats, gutted.
On the ground in ANME: Tories - their freepost is dropping. Addressed to household not voter. No other activity that we are aware of SNP - no money but plenty of bodies. Extensively doorknocking. Labour - nothing at all Reform - nothing at all LibDem - selected doorknocking. We're targeting key wards rather than the whole constituency. Targets will get quite a lot of stuff through the letterbox. Plus a targeted Facebook ad campaign which will be pretty intensive in the remaining weeks
As for the SNP, we're getting that much of their vote is softer than usual. A lot of upset about the state of public services. The odd mention of corruption. Frequent mentions of arrogance and being taken for granted...
I guess likely outcome there is Tories & SNP in mid-30s with Lab 3rd and Libs 4th. Think Ross will edge it. Sorry, but I doubt there is a huge suppressed LibDem vote just waiting to surge out from Buckie, Fraserburgh and Peterhead.
Its possible! You've said a couple of times that there isn't a suppressed LD vote - it isn't suppressed! We have councillors! As for finishing behind Labour? Sure - could happen. But there is no sign of a Labour vote here either - finished 4th in 2019 and have zero representation.
Ross vs Logan? I think Logan. Ross is deeply unpopular even amongst his own people - they leaked the "we think his expenses are dodgy" story last weekend and provided quotes to the newspaper...
It was quite the thing, to see a Tory getting the Rayner treatment from his own side. Even - especially - if it did not come to anything in the end.
Plenty came of it. IPSA have cleared his dirty laundry as clean. Fine. Respect that. Not sure all the people who saw them will feel the same. It smells wrong, even if it is in order. In an election, feel matters way more than fact.
His newly adopted local association threw him under the bus. With what they believed to be a scandal they had helped cover up. Complete with quotes. *Even the Tories* felt it was wrong, rules or not.
The key scandal remains the abrupt sacking of Duguid. Tories demand that sick peopl go back to work - unless they are in the way. That action is definitely wrong, and the stench remains pungent.
If Ross turns up to the hustings on Thursday it could be interesting.
The Duguid thing is very unfortunate and delicate. He most certainly was not thrown under a bus. Circumstances made his candidature unviable. He's not just a bit sick I'm afraid. It's a sad situation.
In no way was his candidature unviable. He would not be able to campaign in person. His team would continue to push his name and his message as he continues to recover.
Remember that he remained on the candidate list and was selected whilst far more seriously ill than he is now. And he is getting better every day.
What they did to him was genuinely disgusting. And from what I read / hear it is universally felt.
No. You're wrong. While opinions may vary about whether Douglas Ross was right to go for the seat - he's taking a huge risk - there is no controversy among those close to this that DD simply couldn't stand. Appreciate the optics look bad but that's the situation.
Aside; The LD MP for Cheadle died 24 days from terminal cancer after being re-elected in 2005. Is being ill a barrier to standing in an election?
in short, no...
if someone dies before the close of nominations then they are withdrawn if they die following the close of nominations but before election day then the contest doesn't happen on election day and a by-election is held separately (as happened in 1997 I think) if they die following the election day it's a standard by-election.
Thirsk and Malton in 2015 or 2017, too. Edit. See it was 2010.
Since things seem a bit quiet atm (by the standards of this campaign), who is everyone else's favourite sets of enemies on here? Personally I enjoy the @Leon V a small crew the most (and his ripostes which while variable are awesome, those who want him off the site can fuck off imo) with those who try to take on @Heathener probably coming up second (and again, her ripostes, although they're nowhere near as funny as Leon's are more delightfully vicious).
Plus those two rather dislike each other which is also fun.
And then there's @Casino_Royale versus the world, depending on sobriety and what he had for breakfast. Also awesomely ridiculous.
@BartholomewRoberts often gets piled on but I don't think anyone viscerally dislikes him. And @Dura_Ace piles on everyone else in an extremely entertaining way but also no one seems upset.
I'm sorry to those I've missed out but would like to know so I can see the simmering resentment in future posts.
It's also interesting that with the possible exception of Casino and Heathener none of the above seem to actually be any good at betting.
The most fun enemies are the ones who act most childishly with each other. I like Nigel vs Malc.
But I also think it’s interesting to try to work out who has the most 180 degree opposite world view to your own world view on here. One’s ideological nemesis. I know who mine is. The nice thing is it’s usually (usually) possible to have a civilised exchange even with one’s ideological nemesis.
The SNP score is particularly disappointing for me and I find it hard to relate to what I am seeing on the ground in Scotland. The SNP are almost invisible because they have no money. We have had 1 leaflet from the SNP and 6 from the Tories (neither Labour nor the Lib Dems are wasting their time in this constituency, I am not even sure Reform are standing). This is in an SNP seat.
Will that make a difference, other than to the recycling bins? Who knows, but it is a long time since the SNP have had so little impact in a major election. I will be gutted if they pick up 37 seats, gutted.
On the ground in ANME: Tories - their freepost is dropping. Addressed to household not voter. No other activity that we are aware of SNP - no money but plenty of bodies. Extensively doorknocking. Labour - nothing at all Reform - nothing at all LibDem - selected doorknocking. We're targeting key wards rather than the whole constituency. Targets will get quite a lot of stuff through the letterbox. Plus a targeted Facebook ad campaign which will be pretty intensive in the remaining weeks
As for the SNP, we're getting that much of their vote is softer than usual. A lot of upset about the state of public services. The odd mention of corruption. Frequent mentions of arrogance and being taken for granted...
I guess likely outcome there is Tories & SNP in mid-30s with Lab 3rd and Libs 4th. Think Ross will edge it. Sorry, but I doubt there is a huge suppressed LibDem vote just waiting to surge out from Buckie, Fraserburgh and Peterhead.
Its possible! You've said a couple of times that there isn't a suppressed LD vote - it isn't suppressed! We have councillors! As for finishing behind Labour? Sure - could happen. But there is no sign of a Labour vote here either - finished 4th in 2019 and have zero representation.
Ross vs Logan? I think Logan. Ross is deeply unpopular even amongst his own people - they leaked the "we think his expenses are dodgy" story last weekend and provided quotes to the newspaper...
It was quite the thing, to see a Tory getting the Rayner treatment from his own side. Even - especially - if it did not come to anything in the end.
Plenty came of it. IPSA have cleared his dirty laundry as clean. Fine. Respect that. Not sure all the people who saw them will feel the same. It smells wrong, even if it is in order. In an election, feel matters way more than fact.
His newly adopted local association threw him under the bus. With what they believed to be a scandal they had helped cover up. Complete with quotes. *Even the Tories* felt it was wrong, rules or not.
The key scandal remains the abrupt sacking of Duguid. Tories demand that sick peopl go back to work - unless they are in the way. That action is definitely wrong, and the stench remains pungent.
If Ross turns up to the hustings on Thursday it could be interesting.
The Duguid thing is very unfortunate and delicate. He most certainly was not thrown under a bus. Circumstances made his candidature unviable. He's not just a bit sick I'm afraid. It's a sad situation.
In no way was his candidature unviable. He would not be able to campaign in person. His team would continue to push his name and his message as he continues to recover.
Remember that he remained on the candidate list and was selected whilst far more seriously ill than he is now. And he is getting better every day.
What they did to him was genuinely disgusting. And from what I read / hear it is universally felt.
No. You're wrong. While opinions may vary about whether Douglas Ross was right to go for the seat - he's taking a huge risk - there is no controversy among those close to this that DD simply couldn't stand. Appreciate the optics look bad but that's the situation.
Aside; The LD MP for Cheadle died 24 days from terminal cancer after being re-elected in 2005. Is being ill a barrier to standing in an election?
in short, no...
if someone dies before the close of nominations then they are withdrawn if they die following the close of nominations but before election day then the contest doesn't happen on election day and a by-election is held separately (as happened in 1997 I think) if they die following the election day it's a standard by-election.
2005 South Staffordshire was on the 23rd June.
Cheers, I knew I remembered one. reading up on south staffs, they changed the rules following it to allow the nominating party to nominate again
although even with that they had to postpone Thirsk in 2010.
Just had a shock as saw blue lights behind me so pulled over to let them past and instead they stopped behind me. Cop asked me to get into the back of their car.
Asked if I had insurance on my vehicle, said of course I did, and they said its showing on their system as uninsured. I said I got it through the dealer, which I did. Their colleague asked how long ago, I said it's a 73 reg so late last year, November from memory and it's a 12 month policy. Was asked if I had proof of insurance so searched my emails and pulled up the policy and showed it to him, he took a look and said he's satisfied but I should get in touch as it's not showing on their system. Glad I had phone signal to pull it up.
Had a deeper look since they drove off and spotted there's a typo on the reg plate on the certificate, which will be why it wasn't showing. Surprised it's just come up now as I've had it for ~8 months. Bad for a typo when it was arranged via the dealer.
I'll have to get in touch on Monday morning but not sure the legality of it now, would a typo on the reg plate void the policy?
The SNP score is particularly disappointing for me and I find it hard to relate to what I am seeing on the ground in Scotland. The SNP are almost invisible because they have no money. We have had 1 leaflet from the SNP and 6 from the Tories (neither Labour nor the Lib Dems are wasting their time in this constituency, I am not even sure Reform are standing). This is in an SNP seat.
Will that make a difference, other than to the recycling bins? Who knows, but it is a long time since the SNP have had so little impact in a major election. I will be gutted if they pick up 37 seats, gutted.
On the ground in ANME: Tories - their freepost is dropping. Addressed to household not voter. No other activity that we are aware of SNP - no money but plenty of bodies. Extensively doorknocking. Labour - nothing at all Reform - nothing at all LibDem - selected doorknocking. We're targeting key wards rather than the whole constituency. Targets will get quite a lot of stuff through the letterbox. Plus a targeted Facebook ad campaign which will be pretty intensive in the remaining weeks
As for the SNP, we're getting that much of their vote is softer than usual. A lot of upset about the state of public services. The odd mention of corruption. Frequent mentions of arrogance and being taken for granted...
I guess likely outcome there is Tories & SNP in mid-30s with Lab 3rd and Libs 4th. Think Ross will edge it. Sorry, but I doubt there is a huge suppressed LibDem vote just waiting to surge out from Buckie, Fraserburgh and Peterhead.
Its possible! You've said a couple of times that there isn't a suppressed LD vote - it isn't suppressed! We have councillors! As for finishing behind Labour? Sure - could happen. But there is no sign of a Labour vote here either - finished 4th in 2019 and have zero representation.
Ross vs Logan? I think Logan. Ross is deeply unpopular even amongst his own people - they leaked the "we think his expenses are dodgy" story last weekend and provided quotes to the newspaper...
It was quite the thing, to see a Tory getting the Rayner treatment from his own side. Even - especially - if it did not come to anything in the end.
Plenty came of it. IPSA have cleared his dirty laundry as clean. Fine. Respect that. Not sure all the people who saw them will feel the same. It smells wrong, even if it is in order. In an election, feel matters way more than fact.
His newly adopted local association threw him under the bus. With what they believed to be a scandal they had helped cover up. Complete with quotes. *Even the Tories* felt it was wrong, rules or not.
The key scandal remains the abrupt sacking of Duguid. Tories demand that sick peopl go back to work - unless they are in the way. That action is definitely wrong, and the stench remains pungent.
If Ross turns up to the hustings on Thursday it could be interesting.
The Duguid thing is very unfortunate and delicate. He most certainly was not thrown under a bus. Circumstances made his candidature unviable. He's not just a bit sick I'm afraid. It's a sad situation.
In no way was his candidature unviable. He would not be able to campaign in person. His team would continue to push his name and his message as he continues to recover.
Remember that he remained on the candidate list and was selected whilst far more seriously ill than he is now. And he is getting better every day.
What they did to him was genuinely disgusting. And from what I read / hear it is universally felt.
No. You're wrong. While opinions may vary about whether Douglas Ross was right to go for the seat - he's taking a huge risk - there is no controversy among those close to this that DD simply couldn't stand. Appreciate the optics look bad but that's the situation.
Are you close to this? I've heard from people who were *very* close to this that not only could he stand, was *was* standing. Its only at the last the party withdrew its approval for his candidacy.
The optics look bad because it is bad.
Very strongly suspect my folk are "closer" thsn yours. David is popular. He wasn't stabbed. Optics are a different matter.
OK. Compare and contrast what Ross says and what Duguid says. The official party line is that David was consulted. David says he was not.
Since things seem a bit quiet atm (by the standards of this campaign), who is everyone else's favourite sets of enemies on here? Personally I enjoy the @Leon V a small crew the most (and his ripostes which while variable are awesome, those who want him off the site can fuck off imo) with those who try to take on @Heathener probably coming up second (and again, her ripostes, although they're nowhere near as funny as Leon's are more delightfully vicious).
Plus those two rather dislike each other which is also fun.
And then there's @Casino_Royale versus the world, depending on sobriety and what he had for breakfast. Also awesomely ridiculous.
@BartholomewRoberts often gets piled on but I don't think anyone viscerally dislikes him. And @Dura_Ace piles on everyone else in an extremely entertaining way but also no one seems upset.
I'm sorry to those I've missed out but would like to know so I can see the simmering resentment in future posts.
It's also interesting that with the possible exception of Casino and Heathener none of the above seem to actually be any good at betting.
Oooh I'd forgotten that one. That's brilliant. Like an first year philosophy student versus a Glaswegian university plumber. Feel free to adjust analogy, I'm not the writer here
The SNP score is particularly disappointing for me and I find it hard to relate to what I am seeing on the ground in Scotland. The SNP are almost invisible because they have no money. We have had 1 leaflet from the SNP and 6 from the Tories (neither Labour nor the Lib Dems are wasting their time in this constituency, I am not even sure Reform are standing). This is in an SNP seat.
Will that make a difference, other than to the recycling bins? Who knows, but it is a long time since the SNP have had so little impact in a major election. I will be gutted if they pick up 37 seats, gutted.
On the ground in ANME: Tories - their freepost is dropping. Addressed to household not voter. No other activity that we are aware of SNP - no money but plenty of bodies. Extensively doorknocking. Labour - nothing at all Reform - nothing at all LibDem - selected doorknocking. We're targeting key wards rather than the whole constituency. Targets will get quite a lot of stuff through the letterbox. Plus a targeted Facebook ad campaign which will be pretty intensive in the remaining weeks
As for the SNP, we're getting that much of their vote is softer than usual. A lot of upset about the state of public services. The odd mention of corruption. Frequent mentions of arrogance and being taken for granted...
I guess likely outcome there is Tories & SNP in mid-30s with Lab 3rd and Libs 4th. Think Ross will edge it. Sorry, but I doubt there is a huge suppressed LibDem vote just waiting to surge out from Buckie, Fraserburgh and Peterhead.
Its possible! You've said a couple of times that there isn't a suppressed LD vote - it isn't suppressed! We have councillors! As for finishing behind Labour? Sure - could happen. But there is no sign of a Labour vote here either - finished 4th in 2019 and have zero representation.
Ross vs Logan? I think Logan. Ross is deeply unpopular even amongst his own people - they leaked the "we think his expenses are dodgy" story last weekend and provided quotes to the newspaper...
It was quite the thing, to see a Tory getting the Rayner treatment from his own side. Even - especially - if it did not come to anything in the end.
Plenty came of it. IPSA have cleared his dirty laundry as clean. Fine. Respect that. Not sure all the people who saw them will feel the same. It smells wrong, even if it is in order. In an election, feel matters way more than fact.
His newly adopted local association threw him under the bus. With what they believed to be a scandal they had helped cover up. Complete with quotes. *Even the Tories* felt it was wrong, rules or not.
The key scandal remains the abrupt sacking of Duguid. Tories demand that sick peopl go back to work - unless they are in the way. That action is definitely wrong, and the stench remains pungent.
If Ross turns up to the hustings on Thursday it could be interesting.
The Duguid thing is very unfortunate and delicate. He most certainly was not thrown under a bus. Circumstances made his candidature unviable. He's not just a bit sick I'm afraid. It's a sad situation.
In no way was his candidature unviable. He would not be able to campaign in person. His team would continue to push his name and his message as he continues to recover.
Remember that he remained on the candidate list and was selected whilst far more seriously ill than he is now. And he is getting better every day.
What they did to him was genuinely disgusting. And from what I read / hear it is universally felt.
No. You're wrong. While opinions may vary about whether Douglas Ross was right to go for the seat - he's taking a huge risk - there is no controversy among those close to this that DD simply couldn't stand. Appreciate the optics look bad but that's the situation.
Are you close to this? I've heard from people who were *very* close to this that not only could he stand, was *was* standing. Its only at the last the party withdrew its approval for his candidacy.
The optics look bad because it is bad.
Very strongly suspect my folk are "closer" thsn yours. David is popular. He wasn't stabbed. Optics are a different matter.
OK. Compare and contrast what Ross says and what Duguid says. The official party line is that David was consulted. David says he was not.
Nigel Farage @Nigel_Farage Latest polling by Survation now predicts Reform UK will win 7 seats. The momentum is building.
Almost enough to fill a taxi? 😂
The chances of Exeter/Exmouth going Reform seem vanishingly small. I could see Clacton, Boston, and maybe a red wall or two, otherwise I struggle to see how a very weak ground game delivers any seats at all.
Exeter and Exmouth are surely too pretty. The prettier the locale, the more centrist / wet conservative the electorate.
The SNP score is particularly disappointing for me and I find it hard to relate to what I am seeing on the ground in Scotland. The SNP are almost invisible because they have no money. We have had 1 leaflet from the SNP and 6 from the Tories (neither Labour nor the Lib Dems are wasting their time in this constituency, I am not even sure Reform are standing). This is in an SNP seat.
Will that make a difference, other than to the recycling bins? Who knows, but it is a long time since the SNP have had so little impact in a major election. I will be gutted if they pick up 37 seats, gutted.
On the ground in ANME: Tories - their freepost is dropping. Addressed to household not voter. No other activity that we are aware of SNP - no money but plenty of bodies. Extensively doorknocking. Labour - nothing at all Reform - nothing at all LibDem - selected doorknocking. We're targeting key wards rather than the whole constituency. Targets will get quite a lot of stuff through the letterbox. Plus a targeted Facebook ad campaign which will be pretty intensive in the remaining weeks
As for the SNP, we're getting that much of their vote is softer than usual. A lot of upset about the state of public services. The odd mention of corruption. Frequent mentions of arrogance and being taken for granted...
I guess likely outcome there is Tories & SNP in mid-30s with Lab 3rd and Libs 4th. Think Ross will edge it. Sorry, but I doubt there is a huge suppressed LibDem vote just waiting to surge out from Buckie, Fraserburgh and Peterhead.
Its possible! You've said a couple of times that there isn't a suppressed LD vote - it isn't suppressed! We have councillors! As for finishing behind Labour? Sure - could happen. But there is no sign of a Labour vote here either - finished 4th in 2019 and have zero representation.
Ross vs Logan? I think Logan. Ross is deeply unpopular even amongst his own people - they leaked the "we think his expenses are dodgy" story last weekend and provided quotes to the newspaper...
It was quite the thing, to see a Tory getting the Rayner treatment from his own side. Even - especially - if it did not come to anything in the end.
Plenty came of it. IPSA have cleared his dirty laundry as clean. Fine. Respect that. Not sure all the people who saw them will feel the same. It smells wrong, even if it is in order. In an election, feel matters way more than fact.
His newly adopted local association threw him under the bus. With what they believed to be a scandal they had helped cover up. Complete with quotes. *Even the Tories* felt it was wrong, rules or not.
The key scandal remains the abrupt sacking of Duguid. Tories demand that sick peopl go back to work - unless they are in the way. That action is definitely wrong, and the stench remains pungent.
If Ross turns up to the hustings on Thursday it could be interesting.
The Duguid thing is very unfortunate and delicate. He most certainly was not thrown under a bus. Circumstances made his candidature unviable. He's not just a bit sick I'm afraid. It's a sad situation.
In no way was his candidature unviable. He would not be able to campaign in person. His team would continue to push his name and his message as he continues to recover.
Remember that he remained on the candidate list and was selected whilst far more seriously ill than he is now. And he is getting better every day.
What they did to him was genuinely disgusting. And from what I read / hear it is universally felt.
No. You're wrong. While opinions may vary about whether Douglas Ross was right to go for the seat - he's taking a huge risk - there is no controversy among those close to this that DD simply couldn't stand. Appreciate the optics look bad but that's the situation.
Come on that's got to be balls. Ross BTW does not have Duguid's personal vote, so his poor behaviour will, most likely, anyway cost him the seat.
There are tens, or even hundreds of thousands of BigGs out there. People who will say all sorts of things to pollsters, but who, in the quiet of the polling booth or discussing a postal vote with their wives over the kitchen table, will come home to the Tories.
There are no loyal Faragists. He’s a fling. A bit of rough. In the end they come back. Not the erstwhile Labour voters, they’re going back to that home, but the habitual Conservative voters.
That’s why the conservatives will end up with a vote share beginning with 3, and about 200 seats.
Do you fancy a bet on this?
Not a huge one, but let’s say £100. If Tories are 28% or above you pay me, if they are 24% or below I pay you, if 24-28 we call it quits.
That’s a bit boring
Let’s make it below 26% I win; above 26% you win
But just £50. Enough for a pleasant solo lunch
Deal
🥂👍
That’s a nice bet. We both have a decent chance, but we are betting what we sincerely believe
Yes, much better than that ludicrous £10 to £10,000 with sandpit.
@Leon I’m on TikTok and Farage is not “all over it”
Yes, Reform are doing a better job than the tories on most social media but Labour are way ahead of both in terms of output and followers.
What you just can’t accept is that Farage is marmite. A lot of people on the right loathe him. He is not the answer.
Your description of him as a right wing Corbyn is - I think - spot on.
While he'd do a terrific job of uniting (much of) the Conservative vote and (all of) the Reform vote, he'd also supercharge tactical voting against the Conservative-Reform Party.
Which is a big problem in FPTP, unless you're getting 45% of the vote. And I don't believe that a Conservative-Reform Party led by Farage would be getting 45% of the vote.
Since things seem a bit quiet atm (by the standards of this campaign), who is everyone else's favourite sets of enemies on here? Personally I enjoy the @Leon V a small crew the most (and his ripostes which while variable are awesome, those who want him off the site can fuck off imo) with those who try to take on @Heathener probably coming up second (and again, her ripostes, although they're nowhere near as funny as Leon's are more delightfully vicious).
Plus those two rather dislike each other which is also fun.
And then there's @Casino_Royale versus the world, depending on sobriety and what he had for breakfast. Also awesomely ridiculous.
@BartholomewRoberts often gets piled on but I don't think anyone viscerally dislikes him. And @Dura_Ace piles on everyone else in an extremely entertaining way but also no one seems upset.
I'm sorry to those I've missed out but would like to know so I can see the simmering resentment in future posts.
It's also interesting that with the possible exception of Casino and Heathener none of the above seem to actually be any good at betting.
I think 1488grss and I were (to quote downthread) "swinging for the fences" vs Carlotta and CycleFree on the trans debate up until recently.
Though to be fair, I actually think both are quite intelligent and sound on most other issues, I'm just a metropolitan Londoner with a lot of queer friends.
IRL I often berate said friends for being unequivocally pro-immigration and pro-Palestine, but we somehow manage to maintain our friendships.
New polling by Charlesbye Communications shows that Cameron is the public’s preferred candidate to assume the leadership again after the election. He was on 25 per cent, with Farage on 20 per cent, one point ahead of Mordaunt, with the current bookmakers’ favourite Kemi Badenoch on 8 per cent. In the same survey, 2019 Tory voters put Mordaunt top on 27 per cent, three ahead of Cameron and four ahead of Farage, with Badenoch on 6 per cent.
As I was saying, we need the Cameron party (incorporating the Lib Dems) and the Farage party (incorporating the ERG and a bit of old Labour).
The job of the next Tory leader is to unite the right. It can't be someone who repels part of the voter coalition they need to put back together. At the mo I would say Penny Mordaunt seems best-placed.
Mordaunt loses her Portsmouth N seat to Labour on most current polls, Labour won it in 1997
How much of a personal vote does Mordaunt have? As a possible future leader, does that buy her some extra support?
It will be interesting to see how both Mordaunt and Mercer perform in terms of personal vote. Both will find it tough to retain their seats but it might be that personal vote makes all the difference. I can't see personal vote helping Rees Mogg unless it is because he has forced all his indentured tenants to vote for him.
Ress Mogg is popular with likely Reform voters though and hard Brexiteers, so may stem leakage to Reform. Rosindell and Francois could hold on in the same manner as they could easily be Reform MPs
Has anyone yet looked at these MRP polls and worked out what the likely makeup of the rump Tory party is going to be if they turn out to be accurate? I suspect that will have a far bigger impact on the post election fate of the Tories than the basic result itself.
My guess is that Reform will be strongest where UKIP was strongest - i.e. the Red Wall seats the Conservatives won in 2019, and a lot of the East coast from Kent up.
These are the seats where the Brexit vote was a vote against immigration, and where they feel they have been betrayed: not just by immigration, but also by levelling up and the cancelling of the HS2 extension.
I guess the Conservative vote will hold up better in more prosperous parts of the UK - the South East and in suburban areas: i.e. places where the principal challenge to the Conservatives is from the LibDems.
Depends which part of the East Coast. Essex, yes, Suffolk coast no. Norfolk, yes in Yarmouth but the idea they will poll as well in N Norfolk or NW Norfolk as Survation suggests is ridiculous, these are incredibly wealthy, second home type areas in large part, very agricultural, not remotely prime Reform territory.
Since things seem a bit quiet atm (by the standards of this campaign), who is everyone else's favourite sets of enemies on here? Personally I enjoy the @Leon V a small crew the most (and his ripostes which while variable are awesome, those who want him off the site can fuck off imo) with those who try to take on @Heathener probably coming up second (and again, her ripostes, although they're nowhere near as funny as Leon's are more delightfully vicious).
Plus those two rather dislike each other which is also fun.
And then there's @Casino_Royale versus the world, depending on sobriety and what he had for breakfast. Also awesomely ridiculous.
@BartholomewRoberts often gets piled on but I don't think anyone viscerally dislikes him. And @Dura_Ace piles on everyone else in an extremely entertaining way but also no one seems upset.
I'm sorry to those I've missed out but would like to know so I can see the simmering resentment in future posts.
It's also interesting that with the possible exception of Casino and Heathener none of the above seem to actually be any good at betting.
I shouldn't really indulge in this celebration of cattyness, and I'm not going to tag them in, but Doug Seal and The Union Divvie really do not care for one another. And they're not really ideological opposites - they are both on PB's left.
@Leon I’m on TikTok and Farage is not “all over it”
Yes, Reform are doing a better job than the tories on most social media but Labour are way ahead of both in terms of output and followers.
What you just can’t accept is that Farage is marmite. A lot of people on the right loathe him. He is not the answer.
Your description of him as a right wing Corbyn is - I think - spot on.
While he'd do a terrific job of uniting (much of) the Conservative vote and (all of) the Reform vote, he'd also supercharge tactical voting against the Conservative-Reform Party.
Which is a big problem in FPTP, unless you're getting 45% of the vote. And I don't believe that a Conservative-Reform Party led by Farage would be getting 45% of the vote.
Corbyn never clocked that for every vote he won he lost two. Farage is worse.
There are tens, or even hundreds of thousands of BigGs out there. People who will say all sorts of things to pollsters, but who, in the quiet of the polling booth or discussing a postal vote with their wives over the kitchen table, will come home to the Tories.
There are no loyal Faragists. He’s a fling. A bit of rough. In the end they come back. Not the erstwhile Labour voters, they’re going back to that home, but the habitual Conservative voters.
That’s why the conservatives will end up with a vote share beginning with 3, and about 200 seats.
Do you fancy a bet on this?
Not a huge one, but let’s say £100. If Tories are 28% or above you pay me, if they are 24% or below I pay you, if 24-28 we call it quits.
That’s a bit boring
Let’s make it below 26% I win; above 26% you win
But just £50. Enough for a pleasant solo lunch
Deal
🥂👍
That’s a nice bet. We both have a decent chance, but we are betting what we sincerely believe
Yes, much better than that ludicrous £10 to £10,000 with sandpit.
Approved.
Oh, don’t be a drip. @sandpit is going to win the bet which means a charity for disabled Ukrainian soldiers got a nice donation
Tho I WILL be collecting in the million-to-1 chance I win
Just had a shock as saw blue lights behind me so pulled over to let them past and instead they stopped behind me. Cop asked me to get into the back of their car.
Asked if I had insurance on my vehicle, said of course I did, and they said its showing on their system as uninsured. I said I got it through the dealer, which I did. Their colleague asked how long ago, I said it's a 73 reg so late last year, November from memory and it's a 12 month policy. Was asked if I had proof of insurance so searched my emails and pulled up the policy and showed it to him, he took a look and said he's satisfied but I should get in touch as it's not showing on their system. Glad I had phone signal to pull it up.
Had a deeper look since they drove off and spotted there's a typo on the reg plate on the certificate, which will be why it wasn't showing. Surprised it's just come up now as I've had it for ~8 months. Bad for a typo when it was arranged via the dealer.
I'll have to get in touch on Monday morning but not sure the legality of it now, would a typo on the reg plate void the policy?
New polling by Charlesbye Communications shows that Cameron is the public’s preferred candidate to assume the leadership again after the election. He was on 25 per cent, with Farage on 20 per cent, one point ahead of Mordaunt, with the current bookmakers’ favourite Kemi Badenoch on 8 per cent. In the same survey, 2019 Tory voters put Mordaunt top on 27 per cent, three ahead of Cameron and four ahead of Farage, with Badenoch on 6 per cent.
As I was saying, we need the Cameron party (incorporating the Lib Dems) and the Farage party (incorporating the ERG and a bit of old Labour).
The job of the next Tory leader is to unite the right. It can't be someone who repels part of the voter coalition they need to put back together. At the mo I would say Penny Mordaunt seems best-placed.
Mordaunt loses her Portsmouth N seat to Labour on most current polls, Labour won it in 1997
More to the point, she doesn't really unite the right. Too woke.
Ironically probably the best candidate to unite the right would be Rees Mogg, a Tory but close friends with Farage and hugely popular with Leavers.
He may not turn on swing voters anymore than Corbyn did but he could unite the right behind him in the same way Corbyn united the left behind him
Why does unite the right mean "everything to the right of the Conservative Parliamentary Party 2024"? Why doesn't it mean "everything to the left of the Conservative Parliamentary Party 2024" - a much larger group.
Since things seem a bit quiet atm (by the standards of this campaign), who is everyone else's favourite sets of enemies on here? Personally I enjoy the @Leon V a small crew the most (and his ripostes which while variable are awesome, those who want him off the site can fuck off imo) with those who try to take on @Heathener probably coming up second (and again, her ripostes, although they're nowhere near as funny as Leon's are more delightfully vicious).
Plus those two rather dislike each other which is also fun.
And then there's @Casino_Royale versus the world, depending on sobriety and what he had for breakfast. Also awesomely ridiculous.
@BartholomewRoberts often gets piled on but I don't think anyone viscerally dislikes him. And @Dura_Ace piles on everyone else in an extremely entertaining way but also no one seems upset.
I'm sorry to those I've missed out but would like to know so I can see the simmering resentment in future posts.
It's also interesting that with the possible exception of Casino and Heathener none of the above seem to actually be any good at betting.
The most fun enemies are the ones who act most childishly with each other. I like Nigel vs Malc.
But I also think it’s interesting to try to work out who has the most 180 degree opposite world view to your own world view on here. One’s ideological nemesis. I know who mine is. The nice thing is it’s usually (usually) possible to have a civilised exchange even with one’s ideological nemesis.
The old "your enemies aren't the ones opposite, they're the ones on this side" thing probably applies here.
New polling by Charlesbye Communications shows that Cameron is the public’s preferred candidate to assume the leadership again after the election. He was on 25 per cent, with Farage on 20 per cent, one point ahead of Mordaunt, with the current bookmakers’ favourite Kemi Badenoch on 8 per cent. In the same survey, 2019 Tory voters put Mordaunt top on 27 per cent, three ahead of Cameron and four ahead of Farage, with Badenoch on 6 per cent.
As I was saying, we need the Cameron party (incorporating the Lib Dems) and the Farage party (incorporating the ERG and a bit of old Labour).
The job of the next Tory leader is to unite the right. It can't be someone who repels part of the voter coalition they need to put back together. At the mo I would say Penny Mordaunt seems best-placed.
Mordaunt loses her Portsmouth N seat to Labour on most current polls, Labour won it in 1997
More to the point, she doesn't really unite the right. Too woke.
Ironically probably the best candidate to unite the right would be Rees Mogg, a Tory but close friends with Farage and hugely popular with Leavers.
He may not turn on swing voters anymore than Corbyn did but he could unite the right behind him in the same way Corbyn united the left behind him
The red wall is not going to vote for Rees Mogg.
Neither is most of the blue wall.
If the answer is JRM, the question is clearly not who is the next leader of mostbof the Tories.
Since things seem a bit quiet atm (by the standards of this campaign), who is everyone else's favourite sets of enemies on here? Personally I enjoy the @Leon V a small crew the most (and his ripostes which while variable are awesome, those who want him off the site can fuck off imo) with those who try to take on @Heathener probably coming up second (and again, her ripostes, although they're nowhere near as funny as Leon's are more delightfully vicious).
Plus those two rather dislike each other which is also fun.
And then there's @Casino_Royale versus the world, depending on sobriety and what he had for breakfast. Also awesomely ridiculous.
@BartholomewRoberts often gets piled on but I don't think anyone viscerally dislikes him. And @Dura_Ace piles on everyone else in an extremely entertaining way but also no one seems upset.
I'm sorry to those I've missed out but would like to know so I can see the simmering resentment in future posts.
It's also interesting that with the possible exception of Casino and Heathener none of the above seem to actually be any good at betting.
I think 1488grss and I were (to quote downthread) "swinging for the fences" vs Carlotta and CycleFree on the trans debate up until recently.
Though to be fair, I actually think both are quite intelligent and sound on most other issues, I'm just a metropolitan Londoner with a lot of queer friends.
IRL I often berate said friends for being unequivocally pro-immigration and pro-Palestine, but we somehow manage to maintain our friendships.
Having met Cyclefree I can safely say you are completely wrong in calling her 'quite intelligent.'
Just had a shock as saw blue lights behind me so pulled over to let them past and instead they stopped behind me. Cop asked me to get into the back of their car.
Asked if I had insurance on my vehicle, said of course I did, and they said its showing on their system as uninsured. I said I got it through the dealer, which I did. Their colleague asked how long ago, I said it's a 73 reg so late last year, November from memory and it's a 12 month policy. Was asked if I had proof of insurance so searched my emails and pulled up the policy and showed it to him, he took a look and said he's satisfied but I should get in touch as it's not showing on their system. Glad I had phone signal to pull it up.
Had a deeper look since they drove off and spotted there's a typo on the reg plate on the certificate, which will be why it wasn't showing. Surprised it's just come up now as I've had it for ~8 months. Bad for a typo when it was arranged via the dealer.
I'll have to get in touch on Monday morning but not sure the legality of it now, would a typo on the reg plate void the policy?
Well: firstly, your insurance policy covers you to drive any car with Third Party liability insurance, so you will have been legal on the road irrespective.
Secondly, so long as it was a good faith mistake, and not something you did to drive the price of the policy down, then the insurance company would almost certainly cover you for anything else that happened. The regulator really doesn't like insurance companies withdrawing coverage on technicalities.
But do call your insurance company as soon as you can. It's not much fun getting pulled over by the police.
Just had a shock as saw blue lights behind me so pulled over to let them past and instead they stopped behind me. Cop asked me to get into the back of their car.
Asked if I had insurance on my vehicle, said of course I did, and they said its showing on their system as uninsured. I said I got it through the dealer, which I did. Their colleague asked how long ago, I said it's a 73 reg so late last year, November from memory and it's a 12 month policy. Was asked if I had proof of insurance so searched my emails and pulled up the policy and showed it to him, he took a look and said he's satisfied but I should get in touch as it's not showing on their system. Glad I had phone signal to pull it up.
Had a deeper look since they drove off and spotted there's a typo on the reg plate on the certificate, which will be why it wasn't showing. Surprised it's just come up now as I've had it for ~8 months. Bad for a typo when it was arranged via the dealer.
I'll have to get in touch on Monday morning but not sure the legality of it now, would a typo on the reg plate void the policy?
EDIT: Consensus seems to be I was wrong about this.
New polling by Charlesbye Communications shows that Cameron is the public’s preferred candidate to assume the leadership again after the election. He was on 25 per cent, with Farage on 20 per cent, one point ahead of Mordaunt, with the current bookmakers’ favourite Kemi Badenoch on 8 per cent. In the same survey, 2019 Tory voters put Mordaunt top on 27 per cent, three ahead of Cameron and four ahead of Farage, with Badenoch on 6 per cent.
As I was saying, we need the Cameron party (incorporating the Lib Dems) and the Farage party (incorporating the ERG and a bit of old Labour).
The job of the next Tory leader is to unite the right. It can't be someone who repels part of the voter coalition they need to put back together. At the mo I would say Penny Mordaunt seems best-placed.
Mordaunt loses her Portsmouth N seat to Labour on most current polls, Labour won it in 1997
How much of a personal vote does Mordaunt have? As a possible future leader, does that buy her some extra support?
It will be interesting to see how both Mordaunt and Mercer perform in terms of personal vote. Both will find it tough to retain their seats but it might be that personal vote makes all the difference. I can't see personal vote helping Rees Mogg unless it is because he has forced all his indentured tenants to vote for him.
Ress Mogg is popular with likely Reform voters though and hard Brexiteers, so may stem leakage to Reform. Rosindell and Francois could hold on in the same manner as they could easily be Reform MPs
Has anyone yet looked at these MRP polls and worked out what the likely makeup of the rump Tory party is going to be if they turn out to be accurate? I suspect that will have a far bigger impact on the post election fate of the Tories than the basic result itself.
My guess is that Reform will be strongest where UKIP was strongest - i.e. the Red Wall seats the Conservatives won in 2019, and a lot of the East coast from Kent up.
These are the seats where the Brexit vote was a vote against immigration, and where they feel they have been betrayed: not just by immigration, but also by levelling up and the cancelling of the HS2 extension.
I guess the Conservative vote will hold up better in more prosperous parts of the UK - the South East and in suburban areas: i.e. places where the principal challenge to the Conservatives is from the LibDems.
Depends which part of the East Coast. Essex, yes, Suffolk coast no. Norfolk, yes in Yarmouth but the idea they will poll as well in N Norfolk or NW Norfolk as Survation suggests is ridiculous, these are incredibly wealthy, second home type areas in large part, very agricultural, not remotely prime Reform territory.
Just had a shock as saw blue lights behind me so pulled over to let them past and instead they stopped behind me. Cop asked me to get into the back of their car.
Asked if I had insurance on my vehicle, said of course I did, and they said its showing on their system as uninsured. I said I got it through the dealer, which I did. Their colleague asked how long ago, I said it's a 73 reg so late last year, November from memory and it's a 12 month policy. Was asked if I had proof of insurance so searched my emails and pulled up the policy and showed it to him, he took a look and said he's satisfied but I should get in touch as it's not showing on their system. Glad I had phone signal to pull it up.
Had a deeper look since they drove off and spotted there's a typo on the reg plate on the certificate, which will be why it wasn't showing. Surprised it's just come up now as I've had it for ~8 months. Bad for a typo when it was arranged via the dealer.
I'll have to get in touch on Monday morning but not sure the legality of it now, would a typo on the reg plate void the policy?
I've been in this exact situation as a 17 year old (car imported from NI so DVLA wasn't recognising the numberplate when I got the policy & so they went for the closest match). I was running through the whole losing my licence, criminal record, car impounded panic spiral when it happened.
Turns out car insurance goes with the car VIN not the plate, and that should be correct. It's a call them up next week to get it sorted issue, not a don't drive until it's fixed thing - you are insured until then.
New polling by Charlesbye Communications shows that Cameron is the public’s preferred candidate to assume the leadership again after the election. He was on 25 per cent, with Farage on 20 per cent, one point ahead of Mordaunt, with the current bookmakers’ favourite Kemi Badenoch on 8 per cent. In the same survey, 2019 Tory voters put Mordaunt top on 27 per cent, three ahead of Cameron and four ahead of Farage, with Badenoch on 6 per cent.
As I was saying, we need the Cameron party (incorporating the Lib Dems) and the Farage party (incorporating the ERG and a bit of old Labour).
The job of the next Tory leader is to unite the right. It can't be someone who repels part of the voter coalition they need to put back together. At the mo I would say Penny Mordaunt seems best-placed.
Mordaunt loses her Portsmouth N seat to Labour on most current polls, Labour won it in 1997
More to the point, she doesn't really unite the right. Too woke.
Ironically probably the best candidate to unite the right would be Rees Mogg, a Tory but close friends with Farage and hugely popular with Leavers.
He may not turn on swing voters anymore than Corbyn did but he could unite the right behind him in the same way Corbyn united the left behind him
Why does unite the right mean "everything to the right of the Conservative Parliamentary Party 2024"? Why doesn't it mean "everything to the left of the Conservative Parliamentary Party 2024" - a much larger group.
Why would unite the right mean unite the left? If left wing parties and people feel the need to unite, let them do so.
The SNP score is particularly disappointing for me and I find it hard to relate to what I am seeing on the ground in Scotland. The SNP are almost invisible because they have no money. We have had 1 leaflet from the SNP and 6 from the Tories (neither Labour nor the Lib Dems are wasting their time in this constituency, I am not even sure Reform are standing). This is in an SNP seat.
Will that make a difference, other than to the recycling bins? Who knows, but it is a long time since the SNP have had so little impact in a major election. I will be gutted if they pick up 37 seats, gutted.
On the ground in ANME: Tories - their freepost is dropping. Addressed to household not voter. No other activity that we are aware of SNP - no money but plenty of bodies. Extensively doorknocking. Labour - nothing at all Reform - nothing at all LibDem - selected doorknocking. We're targeting key wards rather than the whole constituency. Targets will get quite a lot of stuff through the letterbox. Plus a targeted Facebook ad campaign which will be pretty intensive in the remaining weeks
As for the SNP, we're getting that much of their vote is softer than usual. A lot of upset about the state of public services. The odd mention of corruption. Frequent mentions of arrogance and being taken for granted...
I guess likely outcome there is Tories & SNP in mid-30s with Lab 3rd and Libs 4th. Think Ross will edge it. Sorry, but I doubt there is a huge suppressed LibDem vote just waiting to surge out from Buckie, Fraserburgh and Peterhead.
Its possible! You've said a couple of times that there isn't a suppressed LD vote - it isn't suppressed! We have councillors! As for finishing behind Labour? Sure - could happen. But there is no sign of a Labour vote here either - finished 4th in 2019 and have zero representation.
Ross vs Logan? I think Logan. Ross is deeply unpopular even amongst his own people - they leaked the "we think his expenses are dodgy" story last weekend and provided quotes to the newspaper...
It was quite the thing, to see a Tory getting the Rayner treatment from his own side. Even - especially - if it did not come to anything in the end.
Plenty came of it. IPSA have cleared his dirty laundry as clean. Fine. Respect that. Not sure all the people who saw them will feel the same. It smells wrong, even if it is in order. In an election, feel matters way more than fact.
His newly adopted local association threw him under the bus. With what they believed to be a scandal they had helped cover up. Complete with quotes. *Even the Tories* felt it was wrong, rules or not.
The key scandal remains the abrupt sacking of Duguid. Tories demand that sick peopl go back to work - unless they are in the way. That action is definitely wrong, and the stench remains pungent.
If Ross turns up to the hustings on Thursday it could be interesting.
The Duguid thing is very unfortunate and delicate. He most certainly was not thrown under a bus. Circumstances made his candidature unviable. He's not just a bit sick I'm afraid. It's a sad situation.
In no way was his candidature unviable. He would not be able to campaign in person. His team would continue to push his name and his message as he continues to recover.
Remember that he remained on the candidate list and was selected whilst far more seriously ill than he is now. And he is getting better every day.
What they did to him was genuinely disgusting. And from what I read / hear it is universally felt.
No. You're wrong. While opinions may vary about whether Douglas Ross was right to go for the seat - he's taking a huge risk - there is no controversy among those close to this that DD simply couldn't stand. Appreciate the optics look bad but that's the situation.
Given that DD himself seems to think he could have, you're essentially implying there is more to this than his condition. Or that he is lying or deluded.
That may be the case, I've no idea. But it's hard to escape that conclusion.
Someone is lying
Duguid: "I must however clear up a factual inaccuracy. It has been reported and repeated that I am “unable to stand”. This is simply incorrect. Having been adopted by local members, I was very much looking forward to campaigning - albeit in a different format from normal. It was not my decision not to stand. It was the SCU Management Board that decided not to allow me to be the candidate although none of them had visited me. They apparently took this decision based on two visits from the Party Director and without receiving any professional medical prognosis."
Ross and the Tories put out that they had consulted with Duguid. He says they did not.
That Reform seat list doesn't pass the smell test. The unexpectedly good SNP total might, however. The woad and tartan hardcore of the pro-independence vote is quite large, and they don't really have anywhere else to go. Nobody thinks the Scottish Greens or Alba are going to win any seats.
I maintain my assumption that the Tory membership will probably install Suella as the next leader, assuming that she is returned.
They won't get the chance. Tory MPs pick the final 2 and are more likely to pick Barclay and Tugendhat, both in ultra safe seats, or Cleverly if he holds Braintree which was Labour in 1997 and goes Labour again on some projections
This very much depends on the nature of the surviving Conservative MPs. Which, to be perfectly honest, would require one to generate a list of the likely remnants from a drubbing and make a guess as to their inclinations, which I can't be bothered to do. Is it your opinion that the remnant is likely not to be inclined to go charging off further to the right?
Yes, firstly as lots of ERG Leave MPs in the redwall and Leave marginal seats in areas like the Midlands, Wales, the North, Kent and Essex will lose their seats.
Second as CCHQ ensured the shortlists given to Tory Associations in safe seats where incumbent Tory MPs stood down were only Sunak loyalist centrists
This makes sense.I certainly know that our Tory MP, who dates back to the Ark, was replaced by a parachuted in SPAD. The Conservative situation is so bad that the 18,000 majority she has inherited might not be enough against Labour, but the general principle stands. If there's been enough packing of the ranks by Sunak-friendly candidates turn the Parliamentary party may yet choose to take the fight to Reform rather than attempting a merger. It'll be fascinating under those circumstances to see which side eventually prevails.
@Leon I’m on TikTok and Farage is not “all over it”
Yes, Reform are doing a better job than the tories on most social media but Labour are way ahead of both in terms of output and followers.
What you just can’t accept is that Farage is marmite. A lot of people on the right loathe him. He is not the answer.
Your description of him as a right wing Corbyn is - I think - spot on.
While he'd do a terrific job of uniting (much of) the Conservative vote and (all of) the Reform vote, he'd also supercharge tactical voting against the Conservative-Reform Party.
Which is a big problem in FPTP, unless you're getting 45% of the vote. And I don't believe that a Conservative-Reform Party led by Farage would be getting 45% of the vote.
Corbyn never clocked that for every vote he won he lost two. Farage is worse.
I disagree. This analysis is totally wrong. Farage is a vastly more significant figure and a much more powerful politician
Corbyn is just a standard dim lefty fringe crank who got lucky when Labour nominated him for the lols. Farage single handedly turned UKIP into a major force, forced a referendum, and we brexited. Farage changed history, Corbyn is a footnote
And here is Farage again, transforming an election and threatening to destroy “the natural party of government”
The only similarity is that they are both polarising. That’s it
Nigel Farage @Nigel_Farage Latest polling by Survation now predicts Reform UK will win 7 seats. The momentum is building.
Almost enough to fill a taxi? 😂
The chances of Exeter/Exmouth going Reform seem vanishingly small. I could see Clacton, Boston, and maybe a red wall or two, otherwise I struggle to see how a very weak ground game delivers any seats at all.
Very weak ground game and probably a raft of very weak candidates. Anyone have any intel on locally popular Reform candidates? Former councillors?
Since things seem a bit quiet atm (by the standards of this campaign), who is everyone else's favourite sets of enemies on here? Personally I enjoy the @Leon V a small crew the most (and his ripostes which while variable are awesome, those who want him off the site can fuck off imo) with those who try to take on @Heathener probably coming up second (and again, her ripostes, although they're nowhere near as funny as Leon's are more delightfully vicious).
Plus those two rather dislike each other which is also fun.
And then there's @Casino_Royale versus the world, depending on sobriety and what he had for breakfast. Also awesomely ridiculous.
@BartholomewRoberts often gets piled on but I don't think anyone viscerally dislikes him. And @Dura_Ace piles on everyone else in an extremely entertaining way but also no one seems upset.
I'm sorry to those I've missed out but would like to know so I can see the simmering resentment in future posts.
It's also interesting that with the possible exception of Casino and Heathener none of the above seem to actually be any good at betting.
I think 1488grss and I were (to quote downthread) "swinging for the fences" vs Carlotta and CycleFree on the trans debate up until recently.
Though to be fair, I actually think both are quite intelligent and sound on most other issues, I'm just a metropolitan Londoner with a lot of queer friends.
IRL I often berate said friends for being unequivocally pro-immigration and pro-Palestine, but we somehow manage to maintain our friendships.
Having met Cyclefree I can safely say you are completely wrong in calling her 'quite intelligent.'
She is *extremely* intelligent.
True. Being smart doesn't mean you can't be bigoted, though. Cyclefree insisting on using "he" pronouns when discussing a trans woman who has undergone full SRS and has a functioning vagina being one of those moments for me, tbh.
But as I say, I have no personal grudge against either poster. Indeed, I enjoy the fact we're all able to debate to a high standard here, usually without it turning into name-calling or vindictiveness.
The SNP score is particularly disappointing for me and I find it hard to relate to what I am seeing on the ground in Scotland. The SNP are almost invisible because they have no money. We have had 1 leaflet from the SNP and 6 from the Tories (neither Labour nor the Lib Dems are wasting their time in this constituency, I am not even sure Reform are standing). This is in an SNP seat.
Will that make a difference, other than to the recycling bins? Who knows, but it is a long time since the SNP have had so little impact in a major election. I will be gutted if they pick up 37 seats, gutted.
On the ground in ANME: Tories - their freepost is dropping. Addressed to household not voter. No other activity that we are aware of SNP - no money but plenty of bodies. Extensively doorknocking. Labour - nothing at all Reform - nothing at all LibDem - selected doorknocking. We're targeting key wards rather than the whole constituency. Targets will get quite a lot of stuff through the letterbox. Plus a targeted Facebook ad campaign which will be pretty intensive in the remaining weeks
As for the SNP, we're getting that much of their vote is softer than usual. A lot of upset about the state of public services. The odd mention of corruption. Frequent mentions of arrogance and being taken for granted...
I guess likely outcome there is Tories & SNP in mid-30s with Lab 3rd and Libs 4th. Think Ross will edge it. Sorry, but I doubt there is a huge suppressed LibDem vote just waiting to surge out from Buckie, Fraserburgh and Peterhead.
Its possible! You've said a couple of times that there isn't a suppressed LD vote - it isn't suppressed! We have councillors! As for finishing behind Labour? Sure - could happen. But there is no sign of a Labour vote here either - finished 4th in 2019 and have zero representation.
Ross vs Logan? I think Logan. Ross is deeply unpopular even amongst his own people - they leaked the "we think his expenses are dodgy" story last weekend and provided quotes to the newspaper...
It was quite the thing, to see a Tory getting the Rayner treatment from his own side. Even - especially - if it did not come to anything in the end.
Plenty came of it. IPSA have cleared his dirty laundry as clean. Fine. Respect that. Not sure all the people who saw them will feel the same. It smells wrong, even if it is in order. In an election, feel matters way more than fact.
His newly adopted local association threw him under the bus. With what they believed to be a scandal they had helped cover up. Complete with quotes. *Even the Tories* felt it was wrong, rules or not.
The key scandal remains the abrupt sacking of Duguid. Tories demand that sick peopl go back to work - unless they are in the way. That action is definitely wrong, and the stench remains pungent.
If Ross turns up to the hustings on Thursday it could be interesting.
The Duguid thing is very unfortunate and delicate. He most certainly was not thrown under a bus. Circumstances made his candidature unviable. He's not just a bit sick I'm afraid. It's a sad situation.
In no way was his candidature unviable. He would not be able to campaign in person. His team would continue to push his name and his message as he continues to recover.
Remember that he remained on the candidate list and was selected whilst far more seriously ill than he is now. And he is getting better every day.
What they did to him was genuinely disgusting. And from what I read / hear it is universally felt.
No. You're wrong. While opinions may vary about whether Douglas Ross was right to go for the seat - he's taking a huge risk - there is no controversy among those close to this that DD simply couldn't stand. Appreciate the optics look bad but that's the situation.
Given that DD himself seems to think he could have, you're essentially implying there is more to this than his condition. Or that he is lying or deluded.
That may be the case, I've no idea. But it's hard to escape that conclusion.
Someone is lying
Duguid: "I must however clear up a factual inaccuracy. It has been reported and repeated that I am “unable to stand”. This is simply incorrect. Having been adopted by local members, I was very much looking forward to campaigning - albeit in a different format from normal. It was not my decision not to stand. It was the SCU Management Board that decided not to allow me to be the candidate although none of them had visited me. They apparently took this decision based on two visits from the Party Director and without receiving any professional medical prognosis."
Ross and the Tories put out that they had consulted with Duguid. He says they did not.
It may also affectd wider perceptions of the Scottish Tories in other seats, though I'm not sure if that would be significant. Mr Ross has after all promised to step down - but his previous promise [edit] seems unlikely to be held, so ...
New polling by Charlesbye Communications shows that Cameron is the public’s preferred candidate to assume the leadership again after the election. He was on 25 per cent, with Farage on 20 per cent, one point ahead of Mordaunt, with the current bookmakers’ favourite Kemi Badenoch on 8 per cent. In the same survey, 2019 Tory voters put Mordaunt top on 27 per cent, three ahead of Cameron and four ahead of Farage, with Badenoch on 6 per cent.
As I was saying, we need the Cameron party (incorporating the Lib Dems) and the Farage party (incorporating the ERG and a bit of old Labour).
The job of the next Tory leader is to unite the right. It can't be someone who repels part of the voter coalition they need to put back together. At the mo I would say Penny Mordaunt seems best-placed.
Mordaunt loses her Portsmouth N seat to Labour on most current polls, Labour won it in 1997
More to the point, she doesn't really unite the right. Too woke.
Ironically probably the best candidate to unite the right would be Rees Mogg, a Tory but close friends with Farage and hugely popular with Leavers.
He may not turn on swing voters anymore than Corbyn did but he could unite the right behind him in the same way Corbyn united the left behind him
Why does unite the right mean "everything to the right of the Conservative Parliamentary Party 2024"? Why doesn't it mean "everything to the left of the Conservative Parliamentary Party 2024" - a much larger group.
Why would unite the right mean unite the left? If left wing parties and people feel the need to unite, let them do so.
No ... The vast numbers of ex-Tories who are somewhere roughly parallel with or to the left of the PCP. Not even left of the centre. It's a huge space. Not the tiny sliver over to the right.
Just had a shock as saw blue lights behind me so pulled over to let them past and instead they stopped behind me. Cop asked me to get into the back of their car.
Asked if I had insurance on my vehicle, said of course I did, and they said its showing on their system as uninsured. I said I got it through the dealer, which I did. Their colleague asked how long ago, I said it's a 73 reg so late last year, November from memory and it's a 12 month policy. Was asked if I had proof of insurance so searched my emails and pulled up the policy and showed it to him, he took a look and said he's satisfied but I should get in touch as it's not showing on their system. Glad I had phone signal to pull it up.
Had a deeper look since they drove off and spotted there's a typo on the reg plate on the certificate, which will be why it wasn't showing. Surprised it's just come up now as I've had it for ~8 months. Bad for a typo when it was arranged via the dealer.
I'll have to get in touch on Monday morning but not sure the legality of it now, would a typo on the reg plate void the policy?
Well: firstly, your insurance policy covers you to drive any car with Third Party liability insurance, so you will have been legal on the road irrespective.
Surprised to see someone who owns an insurance company say this (although iirc it's a US one so maybe that's why?). It's not something you can assume at all. Many of the cheaper comprehensive cover policies in the UK don't do this any more (although still most do). And almost all of them will exclude cars you own and cars that aren't insured under another policy.
@Leon I’m on TikTok and Farage is not “all over it”
Yes, Reform are doing a better job than the tories on most social media but Labour are way ahead of both in terms of output and followers.
What you just can’t accept is that Farage is marmite. A lot of people on the right loathe him. He is not the answer.
Your description of him as a right wing Corbyn is - I think - spot on.
While he'd do a terrific job of uniting (much of) the Conservative vote and (all of) the Reform vote, he'd also supercharge tactical voting against the Conservative-Reform Party.
Which is a big problem in FPTP, unless you're getting 45% of the vote. And I don't believe that a Conservative-Reform Party led by Farage would be getting 45% of the vote.
Corbyn never clocked that for every vote he won he lost two. Farage is worse.
I disagree. This analysis is totally wrong. Farage is a vastly more significant figure and a much more powerful politician
Corbyn is just a standard dim lefty fringe crank who got lucky when Labour nominated him for the lols. Farage single handedly turned UKIP into a major force, forced a referendum, and we brexited. Farage changed history, Corbyn is a footnote
And here is Farage again, transforming an election and threatening to destroy “the natural party of government”
The only similarity is that they are both polarising. That’s it
Corbyn got 40% of the vote in 2017. I doubt Farage will get that. Corbyns crowds were bigger.
Since things seem a bit quiet atm (by the standards of this campaign), who is everyone else's favourite sets of enemies on here? Personally I enjoy the @Leon V a small crew the most (and his ripostes which while variable are awesome, those who want him off the site can fuck off imo) with those who try to take on @Heathener probably coming up second (and again, her ripostes, although they're nowhere near as funny as Leon's are more delightfully vicious).
Plus those two rather dislike each other which is also fun.
And then there's @Casino_Royale versus the world, depending on sobriety and what he had for breakfast. Also awesomely ridiculous.
@BartholomewRoberts often gets piled on but I don't think anyone viscerally dislikes him. And @Dura_Ace piles on everyone else in an extremely entertaining way but also no one seems upset.
I'm sorry to those I've missed out but would like to know so I can see the simmering resentment in future posts.
It's also interesting that with the possible exception of Casino and Heathener none of the above seem to actually be any good at betting.
I shouldn't really indulge in this celebration of cattyness, and I'm not going to tag them in, but Doug Seal and The Union Divvie really do not care for one another. And they're not really ideological opposites - they are both on PB's left.
I looked at Stuart Dickson’s LinkedIn profile. There is no worse crime in TUD’s book.
Missouri woman freed after 43 years after murder conviction overturned
Prison term of Sandra ‘Sandy’ Hemme, 63, longest-known wrongful conviction of a woman in US history
A Missouri woman who was imprisoned for more than 40 years for murder has had her conviction overturned after a judge found “clear and convincing” evidence that she was innocent of the killing in question.
Sandra “Sandy” Hemme, 63, was convicted of – and sentenced to life imprisonment for – the 1980 slaying of Patricia Jeschke, a library worker in St Joseph, Missouri, after Hemme made statements to the police incriminating herself while she was a psychiatric patient.
On Friday, Livingston county circuit judge Ryan Horsman ruled that “evidence directly” ties the killing of Jeschke to a local police officer who later went to prison for another crime and has since died.
Hemme, who has spent the last 43 years behind bars, must be freed within 30 days unless prosecutors decide to re-try her, the judge said. The ruling came after an evidentiary hearing in January where Hemme’s legal team presented arguments supporting her evidence.
@Leon I’m on TikTok and Farage is not “all over it”
Yes, Reform are doing a better job than the tories on most social media but Labour are way ahead of both in terms of output and followers.
What you just can’t accept is that Farage is marmite. A lot of people on the right loathe him. He is not the answer.
Your description of him as a right wing Corbyn is - I think - spot on.
While he'd do a terrific job of uniting (much of) the Conservative vote and (all of) the Reform vote, he'd also supercharge tactical voting against the Conservative-Reform Party.
Which is a big problem in FPTP, unless you're getting 45% of the vote. And I don't believe that a Conservative-Reform Party led by Farage would be getting 45% of the vote.
Corbyn never clocked that for every vote he won he lost two. Farage is worse.
I disagree. This analysis is totally wrong. Farage is a vastly more significant figure and a much more powerful politician
Corbyn is just a standard dim lefty fringe crank who got lucky when Labour nominated him for the lols. Farage single handedly turned UKIP into a major force, forced a referendum, and we brexited. Farage changed history, Corbyn is a footnote
And here is Farage again, transforming an election and threatening to destroy “the natural party of government”
The only similarity is that they are both polarising. That’s it
Corbyn got 40% of the vote at a General Election and has been an MP for decades. Farage hasn't.
@Leon I’m on TikTok and Farage is not “all over it”
Yes, Reform are doing a better job than the tories on most social media but Labour are way ahead of both in terms of output and followers.
What you just can’t accept is that Farage is marmite. A lot of people on the right loathe him. He is not the answer.
Your description of him as a right wing Corbyn is - I think - spot on.
While he'd do a terrific job of uniting (much of) the Conservative vote and (all of) the Reform vote, he'd also supercharge tactical voting against the Conservative-Reform Party.
Which is a big problem in FPTP, unless you're getting 45% of the vote. And I don't believe that a Conservative-Reform Party led by Farage would be getting 45% of the vote.
Corbyn never clocked that for every vote he won he lost two. Farage is worse.
I disagree. This analysis is totally wrong. Farage is a vastly more significant figure and a much more powerful politician
Corbyn is just a standard dim lefty fringe crank who got lucky when Labour nominated him for the lols. Farage single handedly turned UKIP into a major force, forced a referendum, and we brexited. Farage changed history, Corbyn is a footnote
And here is Farage again, transforming an election and threatening to destroy “the natural party of government”
The only similarity is that they are both polarising. That’s it
Corbyn got 40% of the vote in 2017. I doubt Farage will get that. Corbyns crowds were bigger.
Corbyn fluked it. Farage is the real deal
FWIW I reckon both would be TERRIBLE prime ministers, for very different reasons
Since things seem a bit quiet atm (by the standards of this campaign), who is everyone else's favourite sets of enemies on here? Personally I enjoy the @Leon V a small crew the most (and his ripostes which while variable are awesome, those who want him off the site can fuck off imo) with those who try to take on @Heathener probably coming up second (and again, her ripostes, although they're nowhere near as funny as Leon's are more delightfully vicious).
Plus those two rather dislike each other which is also fun.
And then there's @Casino_Royale versus the world, depending on sobriety and what he had for breakfast. Also awesomely ridiculous.
@BartholomewRoberts often gets piled on but I don't think anyone viscerally dislikes him. And @Dura_Ace piles on everyone else in an extremely entertaining way but also no one seems upset.
I'm sorry to those I've missed out but would like to know so I can see the simmering resentment in future posts.
It's also interesting that with the possible exception of Casino and Heathener none of the above seem to actually be any good at betting.
I think 1488grss and I were (to quote downthread) "swinging for the fences" vs Carlotta and CycleFree on the trans debate up until recently.
Though to be fair, I actually think both are quite intelligent and sound on most other issues, I'm just a metropolitan Londoner with a lot of queer friends.
IRL I often berate said friends for being unequivocally pro-immigration and pro-Palestine, but we somehow manage to maintain our friendships.
Having met Cyclefree I can safely say you are completely wrong in calling her 'quite intelligent.'
She is *extremely* intelligent.
True. Being smart doesn't mean you can't be bigoted, though. Cyclefree insisting on using "he" pronouns when discussing a trans woman who has undergone full SRS and has a functioning vagina being one of those moments for me, tbh.
But as I say, I have no personal grudge against either poster. Indeed, I enjoy the fact we're all able to debate to a high standard here, usually without it turning into name-calling or vindictiveness.
It seems to be a part of how polarised the debate has become that the positions move further apart from each other. I agree, I would always call a transsexual who had undergone gender reassignment surgery by their newly assigned gender. It seems kind and courteous (I would not automatically extend this to someone who had not yet undergone gender reassignment surgery, and I certainly would not if they had no intention of doing so). But when the dust settles on this argument, and those who share Cyclefree's views have won, as they will, we may find ourselves 'to the right' of where we were before.
Just had a shock as saw blue lights behind me so pulled over to let them past and instead they stopped behind me. Cop asked me to get into the back of their car.
Asked if I had insurance on my vehicle, said of course I did, and they said its showing on their system as uninsured. I said I got it through the dealer, which I did. Their colleague asked how long ago, I said it's a 73 reg so late last year, November from memory and it's a 12 month policy. Was asked if I had proof of insurance so searched my emails and pulled up the policy and showed it to him, he took a look and said he's satisfied but I should get in touch as it's not showing on their system. Glad I had phone signal to pull it up.
Had a deeper look since they drove off and spotted there's a typo on the reg plate on the certificate, which will be why it wasn't showing. Surprised it's just come up now as I've had it for ~8 months. Bad for a typo when it was arranged via the dealer.
I'll have to get in touch on Monday morning but not sure the legality of it now, would a typo on the reg plate void the policy?
Well: firstly, your insurance policy covers you to drive any car with Third Party liability insurance, so you will have been legal on the road irrespective.
Secondly, so long as it was a good faith mistake, and not something you did to drive the price of the policy down, then the insurance company would almost certainly cover you for anything else that happened. The regulator really doesn't like insurance companies withdrawing coverage on technicalities.
But do call your insurance company as soon as you can. It's not much fun getting pulled over by the police.
Third party doesn't cover cars that don't have insurance in their own right. Otherwise you could buy an old banger, get 3rd party insurance, and drive a Ferrari with it.
Electorate is going through its traditional period of flirting with NOTA before reluctantly returning to the old binary FTPT logic.
I’ve suffered twice from the Cleggasm and the Swinson next PM delusion and it is all right, everything is all right, the struggle is finished. I have won the victory over myself. I love FPTP. (Well I hate it, but my hate won’t change anything).
The SNP score is particularly disappointing for me and I find it hard to relate to what I am seeing on the ground in Scotland. The SNP are almost invisible because they have no money. We have had 1 leaflet from the SNP and 6 from the Tories (neither Labour nor the Lib Dems are wasting their time in this constituency, I am not even sure Reform are standing). This is in an SNP seat.
Will that make a difference, other than to the recycling bins? Who knows, but it is a long time since the SNP have had so little impact in a major election. I will be gutted if they pick up 37 seats, gutted.
On the ground in ANME: Tories - their freepost is dropping. Addressed to household not voter. No other activity that we are aware of SNP - no money but plenty of bodies. Extensively doorknocking. Labour - nothing at all Reform - nothing at all LibDem - selected doorknocking. We're targeting key wards rather than the whole constituency. Targets will get quite a lot of stuff through the letterbox. Plus a targeted Facebook ad campaign which will be pretty intensive in the remaining weeks
As for the SNP, we're getting that much of their vote is softer than usual. A lot of upset about the state of public services. The odd mention of corruption. Frequent mentions of arrogance and being taken for granted...
I guess likely outcome there is Tories & SNP in mid-30s with Lab 3rd and Libs 4th. Think Ross will edge it. Sorry, but I doubt there is a huge suppressed LibDem vote just waiting to surge out from Buckie, Fraserburgh and Peterhead.
Its possible! You've said a couple of times that there isn't a suppressed LD vote - it isn't suppressed! We have councillors! As for finishing behind Labour? Sure - could happen. But there is no sign of a Labour vote here either - finished 4th in 2019 and have zero representation.
Ross vs Logan? I think Logan. Ross is deeply unpopular even amongst his own people - they leaked the "we think his expenses are dodgy" story last weekend and provided quotes to the newspaper...
It was quite the thing, to see a Tory getting the Rayner treatment from his own side. Even - especially - if it did not come to anything in the end.
Plenty came of it. IPSA have cleared his dirty laundry as clean. Fine. Respect that. Not sure all the people who saw them will feel the same. It smells wrong, even if it is in order. In an election, feel matters way more than fact.
His newly adopted local association threw him under the bus. With what they believed to be a scandal they had helped cover up. Complete with quotes. *Even the Tories* felt it was wrong, rules or not.
The key scandal remains the abrupt sacking of Duguid. Tories demand that sick peopl go back to work - unless they are in the way. That action is definitely wrong, and the stench remains pungent.
If Ross turns up to the hustings on Thursday it could be interesting.
The Duguid thing is very unfortunate and delicate. He most certainly was not thrown under a bus. Circumstances made his candidature unviable. He's not just a bit sick I'm afraid. It's a sad situation.
In no way was his candidature unviable. He would not be able to campaign in person. His team would continue to push his name and his message as he continues to recover.
Remember that he remained on the candidate list and was selected whilst far more seriously ill than he is now. And he is getting better every day.
What they did to him was genuinely disgusting. And from what I read / hear it is universally felt.
No. You're wrong. While opinions may vary about whether Douglas Ross was right to go for the seat - he's taking a huge risk - there is no controversy among those close to this that DD simply couldn't stand. Appreciate the optics look bad but that's the situation.
Given that DD himself seems to think he could have, you're essentially implying there is more to this than his condition. Or that he is lying or deluded.
That may be the case, I've no idea. But it's hard to escape that conclusion.
Someone is lying
Duguid: "I must however clear up a factual inaccuracy. It has been reported and repeated that I am “unable to stand”. This is simply incorrect. Having been adopted by local members, I was very much looking forward to campaigning - albeit in a different format from normal. It was not my decision not to stand. It was the SCU Management Board that decided not to allow me to be the candidate although none of them had visited me. They apparently took this decision based on two visits from the Party Director and without receiving any professional medical prognosis."
Ross and the Tories put out that they had consulted with Duguid. He says they did not.
Yes. This was my understanding too. Of course it doesn't mean that @Burgessian is lying. There could be something either extremely unsavoury or extremely tragic going on with Duguid for instance.
You'd have thought though if that was the case then - certainly if it was tragic rather than unsavoury - they'd have reached out quietly to explain the situation and you'd just not bring it up. So unsavoury it is!
@Leon I’m on TikTok and Farage is not “all over it”
Yes, Reform are doing a better job than the tories on most social media but Labour are way ahead of both in terms of output and followers.
What you just can’t accept is that Farage is marmite. A lot of people on the right loathe him. He is not the answer.
Your description of him as a right wing Corbyn is - I think - spot on.
While he'd do a terrific job of uniting (much of) the Conservative vote and (all of) the Reform vote, he'd also supercharge tactical voting against the Conservative-Reform Party.
Which is a big problem in FPTP, unless you're getting 45% of the vote. And I don't believe that a Conservative-Reform Party led by Farage would be getting 45% of the vote.
Corbyn never clocked that for every vote he won he lost two. Farage is worse.
I disagree. This analysis is totally wrong. Farage is a vastly more significant figure and a much more powerful politician
Corbyn is just a standard dim lefty fringe crank who got lucky when Labour nominated him for the lols. Farage single handedly turned UKIP into a major force, forced a referendum, and we brexited. Farage changed history, Corbyn is a footnote
And here is Farage again, transforming an election and threatening to destroy “the natural party of government”
The only similarity is that they are both polarising. That’s it
Corbyn got 40% of the vote in 2017. I doubt Farage will get that. Corbyns crowds were bigger.
Corbyn fluked it. Farage is the real deal
FWIW I reckon both would be TERRIBLE prime ministers, for very different reasons
Farage is hyped by the press, Corbyn wasn’t. Boris won Brexit, not Farage.
Another variable for the PB election predictions competition? Maximum temperature in the UK on polling day.
I predict 27C.
We’re going from cold and miserable this last week, to milder but unsettled this week, to really rather nice the week after and then to mixed but very warm (I think) to start July.
I want it to be warm and summery. We need some optimism to welcome in the new era. I’ll always remember the weather on 23rd June 2016. Dark, stormy and menacing.
I remember Friday 2nd May 1997. A sunny morning and everybody beaming with a spring in their step.
Friday 5th July is going to be the same. Phew, people will be saying. Got rid.
@Leon I’m on TikTok and Farage is not “all over it”
Yes, Reform are doing a better job than the tories on most social media but Labour are way ahead of both in terms of output and followers.
What you just can’t accept is that Farage is marmite. A lot of people on the right loathe him. He is not the answer.
Your description of him as a right wing Corbyn is - I think - spot on.
While he'd do a terrific job of uniting (much of) the Conservative vote and (all of) the Reform vote, he'd also supercharge tactical voting against the Conservative-Reform Party.
Which is a big problem in FPTP, unless you're getting 45% of the vote. And I don't believe that a Conservative-Reform Party led by Farage would be getting 45% of the vote.
Corbyn never clocked that for every vote he won he lost two. Farage is worse.
I disagree. This analysis is totally wrong. Farage is a vastly more significant figure and a much more powerful politician
Corbyn is just a standard dim lefty fringe crank who got lucky when Labour nominated him for the lols. Farage single handedly turned UKIP into a major force, forced a referendum, and we brexited. Farage changed history, Corbyn is a footnote
And here is Farage again, transforming an election and threatening to destroy “the natural party of government”
The only similarity is that they are both polarising. That’s it
Corbyn got 40% of the vote in 2017. I doubt Farage will get that. Corbyns crowds were bigger.
Corbyn fluked it. Farage is the real deal
FWIW I reckon both would be TERRIBLE prime ministers, for very different reasons
Farage is hyped by the press, Corbyn wasn’t. Boris won Brexit, not Farage.
No Farage = No Brexit
And on that non-bombshell, I must abed in bomby, power-cutty Odessa. I hope we all survive the night
New polling by Charlesbye Communications shows that Cameron is the public’s preferred candidate to assume the leadership again after the election. He was on 25 per cent, with Farage on 20 per cent, one point ahead of Mordaunt, with the current bookmakers’ favourite Kemi Badenoch on 8 per cent. In the same survey, 2019 Tory voters put Mordaunt top on 27 per cent, three ahead of Cameron and four ahead of Farage, with Badenoch on 6 per cent.
As I was saying, we need the Cameron party (incorporating the Lib Dems) and the Farage party (incorporating the ERG and a bit of old Labour).
The job of the next Tory leader is to unite the right. It can't be someone who repels part of the voter coalition they need to put back together. At the mo I would say Penny Mordaunt seems best-placed.
Mordaunt loses her Portsmouth N seat to Labour on most current polls, Labour won it in 1997
How much of a personal vote does Mordaunt have? As a possible future leader, does that buy her some extra support?
It will be interesting to see how both Mordaunt and Mercer perform in terms of personal vote. Both will find it tough to retain their seats but it might be that personal vote makes all the difference. I can't see personal vote helping Rees Mogg unless it is because he has forced all his indentured tenants to vote for him.
Ress Mogg is popular with likely Reform voters though and hard Brexiteers, so may stem leakage to Reform. Rosindell and Francois could hold on in the same manner as they could easily be Reform MPs
Has anyone yet looked at these MRP polls and worked out what the likely makeup of the rump Tory party is going to be if they turn out to be accurate? I suspect that will have a far bigger impact on the post election fate of the Tories than the basic result itself.
My guess is that Reform will be strongest where UKIP was strongest - i.e. the Red Wall seats the Conservatives won in 2019, and a lot of the East coast from Kent up.
These are the seats where the Brexit vote was a vote against immigration, and where they feel they have been betrayed: not just by immigration, but also by levelling up and the cancelling of the HS2 extension.
I guess the Conservative vote will hold up better in more prosperous parts of the UK - the South East and in suburban areas: i.e. places where the principal challenge to the Conservatives is from the LibDems.
Depends which part of the East Coast. Essex, yes, Suffolk coast no. Norfolk, yes in Yarmouth but the idea they will poll as well in N Norfolk or NW Norfolk as Survation suggests is ridiculous, these are incredibly wealthy, second home type areas in large part, very agricultural, not remotely prime Reform territory.
North Norfolk looks likely to revert to the Lib Dems. NW Norfolk stays Tory save in the event of a Canada 93 implosion. It contains King's Lynn, but it's also home to the likes of Sandringham and Burnham Market. As you say, it's not especially propitious territory for Reform.
The Survation projections are just one more example of a seat calculator starting to break down when it tries to model very large shifts in public opinion. Their list of suggestions doesn't include Rotherham, which we all appreciate is a chance due to local circumstances, but does include a selection of very remote prospects. Apart from Ashfield and Clacton, the only other remotely plausible suggestion in the Survation 7 is Yarmouth, as anyone who has ever been there may appreciate.
The SNP score is particularly disappointing for me and I find it hard to relate to what I am seeing on the ground in Scotland. The SNP are almost invisible because they have no money. We have had 1 leaflet from the SNP and 6 from the Tories (neither Labour nor the Lib Dems are wasting their time in this constituency, I am not even sure Reform are standing). This is in an SNP seat.
Will that make a difference, other than to the recycling bins? Who knows, but it is a long time since the SNP have had so little impact in a major election. I will be gutted if they pick up 37 seats, gutted.
On the ground in ANME: Tories - their freepost is dropping. Addressed to household not voter. No other activity that we are aware of SNP - no money but plenty of bodies. Extensively doorknocking. Labour - nothing at all Reform - nothing at all LibDem - selected doorknocking. We're targeting key wards rather than the whole constituency. Targets will get quite a lot of stuff through the letterbox. Plus a targeted Facebook ad campaign which will be pretty intensive in the remaining weeks
As for the SNP, we're getting that much of their vote is softer than usual. A lot of upset about the state of public services. The odd mention of corruption. Frequent mentions of arrogance and being taken for granted...
I guess likely outcome there is Tories & SNP in mid-30s with Lab 3rd and Libs 4th. Think Ross will edge it. Sorry, but I doubt there is a huge suppressed LibDem vote just waiting to surge out from Buckie, Fraserburgh and Peterhead.
Its possible! You've said a couple of times that there isn't a suppressed LD vote - it isn't suppressed! We have councillors! As for finishing behind Labour? Sure - could happen. But there is no sign of a Labour vote here either - finished 4th in 2019 and have zero representation.
Ross vs Logan? I think Logan. Ross is deeply unpopular even amongst his own people - they leaked the "we think his expenses are dodgy" story last weekend and provided quotes to the newspaper...
It was quite the thing, to see a Tory getting the Rayner treatment from his own side. Even - especially - if it did not come to anything in the end.
Plenty came of it. IPSA have cleared his dirty laundry as clean. Fine. Respect that. Not sure all the people who saw them will feel the same. It smells wrong, even if it is in order. In an election, feel matters way more than fact.
His newly adopted local association threw him under the bus. With what they believed to be a scandal they had helped cover up. Complete with quotes. *Even the Tories* felt it was wrong, rules or not.
The key scandal remains the abrupt sacking of Duguid. Tories demand that sick peopl go back to work - unless they are in the way. That action is definitely wrong, and the stench remains pungent.
If Ross turns up to the hustings on Thursday it could be interesting.
The Duguid thing is very unfortunate and delicate. He most certainly was not thrown under a bus. Circumstances made his candidature unviable. He's not just a bit sick I'm afraid. It's a sad situation.
In no way was his candidature unviable. He would not be able to campaign in person. His team would continue to push his name and his message as he continues to recover.
Remember that he remained on the candidate list and was selected whilst far more seriously ill than he is now. And he is getting better every day.
What they did to him was genuinely disgusting. And from what I read / hear it is universally felt.
No. You're wrong. While opinions may vary about whether Douglas Ross was right to go for the seat - he's taking a huge risk - there is no controversy among those close to this that DD simply couldn't stand. Appreciate the optics look bad but that's the situation.
Given that DD himself seems to think he could have, you're essentially implying there is more to this than his condition. Or that he is lying or deluded.
That may be the case, I've no idea. But it's hard to escape that conclusion.
Someone is lying
Duguid: "I must however clear up a factual inaccuracy. It has been reported and repeated that I am “unable to stand”. This is simply incorrect. Having been adopted by local members, I was very much looking forward to campaigning - albeit in a different format from normal. It was not my decision not to stand. It was the SCU Management Board that decided not to allow me to be the candidate although none of them had visited me. They apparently took this decision based on two visits from the Party Director and without receiving any professional medical prognosis."
Ross and the Tories put out that they had consulted with Duguid. He says they did not.
As I said its delicate. Can't say more. But you simply shouldn't believe the worst. I'll leave it now.
@Leon I’m on TikTok and Farage is not “all over it”
Yes, Reform are doing a better job than the tories on most social media but Labour are way ahead of both in terms of output and followers.
What you just can’t accept is that Farage is marmite. A lot of people on the right loathe him. He is not the answer.
Your description of him as a right wing Corbyn is - I think - spot on.
While he'd do a terrific job of uniting (much of) the Conservative vote and (all of) the Reform vote, he'd also supercharge tactical voting against the Conservative-Reform Party.
Which is a big problem in FPTP, unless you're getting 45% of the vote. And I don't believe that a Conservative-Reform Party led by Farage would be getting 45% of the vote.
Corbyn never clocked that for every vote he won he lost two. Farage is worse.
I disagree. This analysis is totally wrong. Farage is a vastly more significant figure and a much more powerful politician
Corbyn is just a standard dim lefty fringe crank who got lucky when Labour nominated him for the lols. Farage single handedly turned UKIP into a major force, forced a referendum, and we brexited. Farage changed history, Corbyn is a footnote
And here is Farage again, transforming an election and threatening to destroy “the natural party of government”
The only similarity is that they are both polarising. That’s it
Corbyn got 40% of the vote in 2017. I doubt Farage will get that. Corbyns crowds were bigger.
Corbyn fluked it. Farage is the real deal
FWIW I reckon both would be TERRIBLE prime ministers, for very different reasons
New polling by Charlesbye Communications shows that Cameron is the public’s preferred candidate to assume the leadership again after the election. He was on 25 per cent, with Farage on 20 per cent, one point ahead of Mordaunt, with the current bookmakers’ favourite Kemi Badenoch on 8 per cent. In the same survey, 2019 Tory voters put Mordaunt top on 27 per cent, three ahead of Cameron and four ahead of Farage, with Badenoch on 6 per cent.
As I was saying, we need the Cameron party (incorporating the Lib Dems) and the Farage party (incorporating the ERG and a bit of old Labour).
The job of the next Tory leader is to unite the right. It can't be someone who repels part of the voter coalition they need to put back together. At the mo I would say Penny Mordaunt seems best-placed.
Mordaunt loses her Portsmouth N seat to Labour on most current polls, Labour won it in 1997
More to the point, she doesn't really unite the right. Too woke.
Ironically probably the best candidate to unite the right would be Rees Mogg, a Tory but close friends with Farage and hugely popular with Leavers.
He may not turn on swing voters anymore than Corbyn did but he could unite the right behind him in the same way Corbyn united the left behind him
Why does unite the right mean "everything to the right of the Conservative Parliamentary Party 2024"? Why doesn't it mean "everything to the left of the Conservative Parliamentary Party 2024" - a much larger group.
Why would unite the right mean unite the left? If left wing parties and people feel the need to unite, let them do so.
No ... The vast numbers of ex-Tories who are somewhere roughly parallel with or to the left of the PCP. Not even left of the centre. It's a huge space. Not the tiny sliver over to the right.
If you want a purely electoral answer, because there are two (in Scotland and Wales three apiece) major parties occupying that space and speaking to those people, so why occupy that crowded space when there's clearly a lack of provision on the other side?
@Leon I’m on TikTok and Farage is not “all over it”
Yes, Reform are doing a better job than the tories on most social media but Labour are way ahead of both in terms of output and followers.
What you just can’t accept is that Farage is marmite. A lot of people on the right loathe him. He is not the answer.
Your description of him as a right wing Corbyn is - I think - spot on.
While he'd do a terrific job of uniting (much of) the Conservative vote and (all of) the Reform vote, he'd also supercharge tactical voting against the Conservative-Reform Party.
Which is a big problem in FPTP, unless you're getting 45% of the vote. And I don't believe that a Conservative-Reform Party led by Farage would be getting 45% of the vote.
Corbyn never clocked that for every vote he won he lost two. Farage is worse.
I disagree. This analysis is totally wrong. Farage is a vastly more significant figure and a much more powerful politician
Corbyn is just a standard dim lefty fringe crank who got lucky when Labour nominated him for the lols. Farage single handedly turned UKIP into a major force, forced a referendum, and we brexited. Farage changed history, Corbyn is a footnote
And here is Farage again, transforming an election and threatening to destroy “the natural party of government”
The only similarity is that they are both polarising. That’s it
Corbyn got 40% of the vote in 2017. I doubt Farage will get that. Corbyns crowds were bigger.
Corbyn fluked it. Farage is the real deal
FWIW I reckon both would be TERRIBLE prime ministers, for very different reasons
They are different with their own different strengths and weaknesses.
Farage is a more accomplished polemicist than Corbyn. He’s also more relatable to most people.
Corbyn however is more of a Jesus-like prophet. A blanket canvas on to which his disciples could project whatever they liked.
Farage the charismatic entertainer. Corbyn the mysterious otherworldly ascetic. Farage the Martin McGuinness, Corbyn the Gerry Adams.
@Leon I’m on TikTok and Farage is not “all over it”
Yes, Reform are doing a better job than the tories on most social media but Labour are way ahead of both in terms of output and followers.
What you just can’t accept is that Farage is marmite. A lot of people on the right loathe him. He is not the answer.
Tiktok shows you things it thinks you will be interested in - its algorithm for doing so is one of the best in the business. So neither you nor Leon can say for sure if he is "all over it" or not.
Since things seem a bit quiet atm (by the standards of this campaign), who is everyone else's favourite sets of enemies on here? Personally I enjoy the @Leon V a small crew the most (and his ripostes which while variable are awesome, those who want him off the site can fuck off imo) with those who try to take on @Heathener probably coming up second (and again, her ripostes, although they're nowhere near as funny as Leon's are more delightfully vicious).
Plus those two rather dislike each other which is also fun.
And then there's @Casino_Royale versus the world, depending on sobriety and what he had for breakfast. Also awesomely ridiculous.
@BartholomewRoberts often gets piled on but I don't think anyone viscerally dislikes him. And @Dura_Ace piles on everyone else in an extremely entertaining way but also no one seems upset.
I'm sorry to those I've missed out but would like to know so I can see the simmering resentment in future posts.
It's also interesting that with the possible exception of Casino and Heathener none of the above seem to actually be any good at betting.
I think 1488grss and I were (to quote downthread) "swinging for the fences" vs Carlotta and CycleFree on the trans debate up until recently.
Though to be fair, I actually think both are quite intelligent and sound on most other issues, I'm just a metropolitan Londoner with a lot of queer friends.
IRL I often berate said friends for being unequivocally pro-immigration and pro-Palestine, but we somehow manage to maintain our friendships.
Having met Cyclefree I can safely say you are completely wrong in calling her 'quite intelligent.'
She is *extremely* intelligent.
True. Being smart doesn't mean you can't be bigoted, though. Cyclefree insisting on using "he" pronouns when discussing a trans woman who has undergone full SRS and has a functioning vagina being one of those moments for me, tbh.
But as I say, I have no personal grudge against either poster. Indeed, I enjoy the fact we're all able to debate to a high standard here, usually without it turning into name-calling or vindictiveness.
It seems to be a part of how polarised the debate has become that the positions move further apart from each other. I agree, I would always call a transsexual who had undergone gender reassignment surgery by their newly assigned gender. It seems kind and courteous (I would not automatically extend this to someone who had not yet undergone gender reassignment surgery, and I certainly would not if they had no intention of doing so). But when the dust settles on this argument, and those who share Cyclefree's views have won, as they will, we may find ourselves 'to the right' of where we were before.
Indeed. If I suddenly decided to identify as "she" despite the fact I'm a bedraggled middle aged dude with a beard, I wouldn't expect anyone else to identify me as such.
I do have one or two MTF friends who began their transition over a decade ago, and had "the op" years ago, and to call them "he" at this point isn't just disrespectful, it's absurd, if you ever met them. Ditto forcing them to use a male toilet., when they 100% pass as female and no longer have the male "equipment".
The line gets drawn somewhere in the middle of that transition. Cyclefree's decision to continue describing trans women who have fully completed their transition, post-op, as male, was a bit beyond the pale for me, tbh. It's a bit of a dog whistle at that point, that no matter what you do, up to and including having your own johnson cut off, will never be enough.
Tbh if someone is serious enough about being born in the wrong body they're willing to undergo such invasive surgery, I think calling them by she/her pronouns is a pretty reasonable, kind, and civilised thing to do.
The SNP score is particularly disappointing for me and I find it hard to relate to what I am seeing on the ground in Scotland. The SNP are almost invisible because they have no money. We have had 1 leaflet from the SNP and 6 from the Tories (neither Labour nor the Lib Dems are wasting their time in this constituency, I am not even sure Reform are standing). This is in an SNP seat.
Will that make a difference, other than to the recycling bins? Who knows, but it is a long time since the SNP have had so little impact in a major election. I will be gutted if they pick up 37 seats, gutted.
On the ground in ANME: Tories - their freepost is dropping. Addressed to household not voter. No other activity that we are aware of SNP - no money but plenty of bodies. Extensively doorknocking. Labour - nothing at all Reform - nothing at all LibDem - selected doorknocking. We're targeting key wards rather than the whole constituency. Targets will get quite a lot of stuff through the letterbox. Plus a targeted Facebook ad campaign which will be pretty intensive in the remaining weeks
As for the SNP, we're getting that much of their vote is softer than usual. A lot of upset about the state of public services. The odd mention of corruption. Frequent mentions of arrogance and being taken for granted...
I guess likely outcome there is Tories & SNP in mid-30s with Lab 3rd and Libs 4th. Think Ross will edge it. Sorry, but I doubt there is a huge suppressed LibDem vote just waiting to surge out from Buckie, Fraserburgh and Peterhead.
Its possible! You've said a couple of times that there isn't a suppressed LD vote - it isn't suppressed! We have councillors! As for finishing behind Labour? Sure - could happen. But there is no sign of a Labour vote here either - finished 4th in 2019 and have zero representation.
Ross vs Logan? I think Logan. Ross is deeply unpopular even amongst his own people - they leaked the "we think his expenses are dodgy" story last weekend and provided quotes to the newspaper...
It was quite the thing, to see a Tory getting the Rayner treatment from his own side. Even - especially - if it did not come to anything in the end.
Plenty came of it. IPSA have cleared his dirty laundry as clean. Fine. Respect that. Not sure all the people who saw them will feel the same. It smells wrong, even if it is in order. In an election, feel matters way more than fact.
His newly adopted local association threw him under the bus. With what they believed to be a scandal they had helped cover up. Complete with quotes. *Even the Tories* felt it was wrong, rules or not.
The key scandal remains the abrupt sacking of Duguid. Tories demand that sick peopl go back to work - unless they are in the way. That action is definitely wrong, and the stench remains pungent.
If Ross turns up to the hustings on Thursday it could be interesting.
The Duguid thing is very unfortunate and delicate. He most certainly was not thrown under a bus. Circumstances made his candidature unviable. He's not just a bit sick I'm afraid. It's a sad situation.
In no way was his candidature unviable. He would not be able to campaign in person. His team would continue to push his name and his message as he continues to recover.
Remember that he remained on the candidate list and was selected whilst far more seriously ill than he is now. And he is getting better every day.
What they did to him was genuinely disgusting. And from what I read / hear it is universally felt.
No. You're wrong. While opinions may vary about whether Douglas Ross was right to go for the seat - he's taking a huge risk - there is no controversy among those close to this that DD simply couldn't stand. Appreciate the optics look bad but that's the situation.
Given that DD himself seems to think he could have, you're essentially implying there is more to this than his condition. Or that he is lying or deluded.
That may be the case, I've no idea. But it's hard to escape that conclusion.
Someone is lying
Duguid: "I must however clear up a factual inaccuracy. It has been reported and repeated that I am “unable to stand”. This is simply incorrect. Having been adopted by local members, I was very much looking forward to campaigning - albeit in a different format from normal. It was not my decision not to stand. It was the SCU Management Board that decided not to allow me to be the candidate although none of them had visited me. They apparently took this decision based on two visits from the Party Director and without receiving any professional medical prognosis."
Ross and the Tories put out that they had consulted with Duguid. He says they did not.
As I said its delicate. Can't say more. But you simply shouldn't believe the worst. I'll leave it now.
Yet why intrude Mr Ross, when he could have gone to the other side, rather than having a local candidate? That really speaks to the abuse impression.
@Leon I’m on TikTok and Farage is not “all over it”
Yes, Reform are doing a better job than the tories on most social media but Labour are way ahead of both in terms of output and followers.
What you just can’t accept is that Farage is marmite. A lot of people on the right loathe him. He is not the answer.
Tiktok shows you things it thinks you will be interested in - its algorithm for doing so is one of the best in the business. So neither you nor Leon can say for sure if he is "all over it" or not.
Absolutely. My FB is riddled with poverty Rishi memes. I know why that is.
Just had a shock as saw blue lights behind me so pulled over to let them past and instead they stopped behind me. Cop asked me to get into the back of their car.
Asked if I had insurance on my vehicle, said of course I did, and they said its showing on their system as uninsured. I said I got it through the dealer, which I did. Their colleague asked how long ago, I said it's a 73 reg so late last year, November from memory and it's a 12 month policy. Was asked if I had proof of insurance so searched my emails and pulled up the policy and showed it to him, he took a look and said he's satisfied but I should get in touch as it's not showing on their system. Glad I had phone signal to pull it up.
Had a deeper look since they drove off and spotted there's a typo on the reg plate on the certificate, which will be why it wasn't showing. Surprised it's just come up now as I've had it for ~8 months. Bad for a typo when it was arranged via the dealer.
I'll have to get in touch on Monday morning but not sure the legality of it now, would a typo on the reg plate void the policy?
Well: firstly, your insurance policy covers you to drive any car with Third Party liability insurance, so you will have been legal on the road irrespective.
Mine doesn't. In fact, I phoned them up to add it, and they said they couldn't because the policy had already been sold on. Hastings "Essential", for reference.
It looks like Savanta are swimming against the tide. Their last poll before the election was called had CON-LAB 26-43 and this latest poll has 21-46. So they are C-5,L+3.
I think every other pollster have Labour down. Hmm, no. Deltapoll are L+1. So there's a wider divergence.
Since things seem a bit quiet atm (by the standards of this campaign), who is everyone else's favourite sets of enemies on here? Personally I enjoy the @Leon V a small crew the most (and his ripostes which while variable are awesome, those who want him off the site can fuck off imo) with those who try to take on @Heathener probably coming up second (and again, her ripostes, although they're nowhere near as funny as Leon's are more delightfully vicious).
Plus those two rather dislike each other which is also fun.
And then there's @Casino_Royale versus the world, depending on sobriety and what he had for breakfast. Also awesomely ridiculous.
@BartholomewRoberts often gets piled on but I don't think anyone viscerally dislikes him. And @Dura_Ace piles on everyone else in an extremely entertaining way but also no one seems upset.
I'm sorry to those I've missed out but would like to know so I can see the simmering resentment in future posts.
It's also interesting that with the possible exception of Casino and Heathener none of the above seem to actually be any good at betting.
I think 1488grss and I were (to quote downthread) "swinging for the fences" vs Carlotta and CycleFree on the trans debate up until recently.
Though to be fair, I actually think both are quite intelligent and sound on most other issues, I'm just a metropolitan Londoner with a lot of queer friends.
IRL I often berate said friends for being unequivocally pro-immigration and pro-Palestine, but we somehow manage to maintain our friendships.
Having met Cyclefree I can safely say you are completely wrong in calling her 'quite intelligent.'
She is *extremely* intelligent.
True. Being smart doesn't mean you can't be bigoted, though. Cyclefree insisting on using "he" pronouns when discussing a trans woman who has undergone full SRS and has a functioning vagina being one of those moments for me, tbh.
But as I say, I have no personal grudge against either poster. Indeed, I enjoy the fact we're all able to debate to a high standard here, usually without it turning into name-calling or vindictiveness.
It seems to be a part of how polarised the debate has become that the positions move further apart from each other. I agree, I would always call a transsexual who had undergone gender reassignment surgery by their newly assigned gender. It seems kind and courteous (I would not automatically extend this to someone who had not yet undergone gender reassignment surgery, and I certainly would not if they had no intention of doing so). But when the dust settles on this argument, and those who share Cyclefree's views have won, as they will, we may find ourselves 'to the right' of where we were before.
Indeed. If I suddenly decided to identify as "she" despite the fact I'm a bedraggled middle aged dude with a beard, I wouldn't expect anyone else to identify me as such.
I do have one or two MTF friends who began their transition over a decade ago, and had "the op" years ago, and to call them "he" at this point isn't just disrespectful, it's absurd, if you ever met them. Ditto forcing them to use a male toilet., when they 100% pass as female and no longer have the male "equipment".
The line gets drawn somewhere in the middle of that transition. Cyclefree's decision to continue describing trans women who have fully completed their transition, post-op, was a bit beyond the pale for me, tbh. It's a bit of a dog whistle at that point, that no matter what you do, up to and including having your own johnson cut off, will never be enough.
Tbh if someone is serious enough about being born in the wrong body they're willing to undergo such invasive surgery, I think calling them by she/her pronouns is a pretty reasonable, kind, and civilised thing to do.
I can't speak for Cyclefree, but attitudes seem to have hardened during the course of the debate.
I can only totally agree with you that for me, for all sorts of reasons, the cut off point should be the cut off point. A post-op transsexual surely represents a vanishingly small threat of sexual assault in a women's loo or a prison - I would imagine similar statistically to being attacked by a fellow woman. I am open to the contrary being shown to be true.
Another variable for the PB election predictions competition? Maximum temperature in the UK on polling day.
I predict 27C.
We’re going from cold and miserable this last week, to milder but unsettled this week, to really rather nice the week after and then to mixed but very warm (I think) to start July.
I want it to be warm and summery. We need some optimism to welcome in the new era. I’ll always remember the weather on 23rd June 2016. Dark, stormy and menacing.
I remember Friday 2nd May 1997. A sunny morning and everybody beaming with a spring in their step.
Friday 5th July is going to be the same. Phew, people will be saying. Got rid.
There’s a scenario where everyone is quite happy with this election. Say:
Labour win an 80-90 seat majority. Not as huge as some polls suggested, but pretty damn good
Conservatives keep 200 seats. A big sigh of relief. Live to fight another day. Just the pendulum of democracy
Lib Dems get 35 seats, including a couple of notable blue wall scalps. Pretty good. Not the mad numbers some polls were showing but by far the best since 2010.
SNP do much better than feared. Swingback in the closing stages and a collapse of unionist tactical voting. They lose seats, but remain 3rd party in Westminster
Reform win 2 or 3 seats including Clactom, even though their vote gets seriously squeezed. Nigel has his place in the sun and a foothold to justify more appearances on QT.
Greens keep Brighton Pavilion and win Bristol central.
Galloway retains Rochdale. The grift goes on.
In that scenario everyone might head off on summer holidays feeling reasonably contented.
@Leon I’m on TikTok and Farage is not “all over it”
Yes, Reform are doing a better job than the tories on most social media but Labour are way ahead of both in terms of output and followers.
What you just can’t accept is that Farage is marmite. A lot of people on the right loathe him. He is not the answer.
Your description of him as a right wing Corbyn is - I think - spot on.
While he'd do a terrific job of uniting (much of) the Conservative vote and (all of) the Reform vote, he'd also supercharge tactical voting against the Conservative-Reform Party.
Which is a big problem in FPTP, unless you're getting 45% of the vote. And I don't believe that a Conservative-Reform Party led by Farage would be getting 45% of the vote.
Corbyn never clocked that for every vote he won he lost two. Farage is worse.
I disagree. This analysis is totally wrong. Farage is a vastly more significant figure and a much more powerful politician
Corbyn is just a standard dim lefty fringe crank who got lucky when Labour nominated him for the lols. Farage single handedly turned UKIP into a major force, forced a referendum, and we brexited. Farage changed history, Corbyn is a footnote
And here is Farage again, transforming an election and threatening to destroy “the natural party of government”
The only similarity is that they are both polarising. That’s it
Corbyn got 40% of the vote in 2017. I doubt Farage will get that. Corbyns crowds were bigger.
Corbyn fluked it. Farage is the real deal
FWIW I reckon both would be TERRIBLE prime ministers, for very different reasons
Farage is hyped by the press, Corbyn wasn’t. Boris won Brexit, not Farage.
"Corbyn fluked it"
WTF! He won 40%! The apparently amazing "Lord" Cameron got 36% and then 37% and was PM twice. Corbs didn't win but he didn't get 40% through mere luck either.
The SNP score is particularly disappointing for me and I find it hard to relate to what I am seeing on the ground in Scotland. The SNP are almost invisible because they have no money. We have had 1 leaflet from the SNP and 6 from the Tories (neither Labour nor the Lib Dems are wasting their time in this constituency, I am not even sure Reform are standing). This is in an SNP seat.
Will that make a difference, other than to the recycling bins? Who knows, but it is a long time since the SNP have had so little impact in a major election. I will be gutted if they pick up 37 seats, gutted.
On the ground in ANME: Tories - their freepost is dropping. Addressed to household not voter. No other activity that we are aware of SNP - no money but plenty of bodies. Extensively doorknocking. Labour - nothing at all Reform - nothing at all LibDem - selected doorknocking. We're targeting key wards rather than the whole constituency. Targets will get quite a lot of stuff through the letterbox. Plus a targeted Facebook ad campaign which will be pretty intensive in the remaining weeks
As for the SNP, we're getting that much of their vote is softer than usual. A lot of upset about the state of public services. The odd mention of corruption. Frequent mentions of arrogance and being taken for granted...
I guess likely outcome there is Tories & SNP in mid-30s with Lab 3rd and Libs 4th. Think Ross will edge it. Sorry, but I doubt there is a huge suppressed LibDem vote just waiting to surge out from Buckie, Fraserburgh and Peterhead.
Its possible! You've said a couple of times that there isn't a suppressed LD vote - it isn't suppressed! We have councillors! As for finishing behind Labour? Sure - could happen. But there is no sign of a Labour vote here either - finished 4th in 2019 and have zero representation.
Ross vs Logan? I think Logan. Ross is deeply unpopular even amongst his own people - they leaked the "we think his expenses are dodgy" story last weekend and provided quotes to the newspaper...
It was quite the thing, to see a Tory getting the Rayner treatment from his own side. Even - especially - if it did not come to anything in the end.
Plenty came of it. IPSA have cleared his dirty laundry as clean. Fine. Respect that. Not sure all the people who saw them will feel the same. It smells wrong, even if it is in order. In an election, feel matters way more than fact.
His newly adopted local association threw him under the bus. With what they believed to be a scandal they had helped cover up. Complete with quotes. *Even the Tories* felt it was wrong, rules or not.
The key scandal remains the abrupt sacking of Duguid. Tories demand that sick peopl go back to work - unless they are in the way. That action is definitely wrong, and the stench remains pungent.
If Ross turns up to the hustings on Thursday it could be interesting.
The Duguid thing is very unfortunate and delicate. He most certainly was not thrown under a bus. Circumstances made his candidature unviable. He's not just a bit sick I'm afraid. It's a sad situation.
In no way was his candidature unviable. He would not be able to campaign in person. His team would continue to push his name and his message as he continues to recover.
Remember that he remained on the candidate list and was selected whilst far more seriously ill than he is now. And he is getting better every day.
What they did to him was genuinely disgusting. And from what I read / hear it is universally felt.
No. You're wrong. While opinions may vary about whether Douglas Ross was right to go for the seat - he's taking a huge risk - there is no controversy among those close to this that DD simply couldn't stand. Appreciate the optics look bad but that's the situation.
Given that DD himself seems to think he could have, you're essentially implying there is more to this than his condition. Or that he is lying or deluded.
That may be the case, I've no idea. But it's hard to escape that conclusion.
Someone is lying
Duguid: "I must however clear up a factual inaccuracy. It has been reported and repeated that I am “unable to stand”. This is simply incorrect. Having been adopted by local members, I was very much looking forward to campaigning - albeit in a different format from normal. It was not my decision not to stand. It was the SCU Management Board that decided not to allow me to be the candidate although none of them had visited me. They apparently took this decision based on two visits from the Party Director and without receiving any professional medical prognosis."
Ross and the Tories put out that they had consulted with Duguid. He says they did not.
As I said its delicate. Can't say more. But you simply shouldn't believe the worst. I'll leave it now.
Since things seem a bit quiet atm (by the standards of this campaign), who is everyone else's favourite sets of enemies on here? Personally I enjoy the @Leon V a small crew the most (and his ripostes which while variable are awesome, those who want him off the site can fuck off imo) with those who try to take on @Heathener probably coming up second (and again, her ripostes, although they're nowhere near as funny as Leon's are more delightfully vicious).
Plus those two rather dislike each other which is also fun.
And then there's @Casino_Royale versus the world, depending on sobriety and what he had for breakfast. Also awesomely ridiculous.
@BartholomewRoberts often gets piled on but I don't think anyone viscerally dislikes him. And @Dura_Ace piles on everyone else in an extremely entertaining way but also no one seems upset.
I'm sorry to those I've missed out but would like to know so I can see the simmering resentment in future posts.
It's also interesting that with the possible exception of Casino and Heathener none of the above seem to actually be any good at betting.
I think 1488grss and I were (to quote downthread) "swinging for the fences" vs Carlotta and CycleFree on the trans debate up until recently.
Though to be fair, I actually think both are quite intelligent and sound on most other issues, I'm just a metropolitan Londoner with a lot of queer friends.
IRL I often berate said friends for being unequivocally pro-immigration and pro-Palestine, but we somehow manage to maintain our friendships.
Having met Cyclefree I can safely say you are completely wrong in calling her 'quite intelligent.'
She is *extremely* intelligent.
True. Being smart doesn't mean you can't be bigoted, though. Cyclefree insisting on using "he" pronouns when discussing a trans woman who has undergone full SRS and has a functioning vagina being one of those moments for me, tbh.
But as I say, I have no personal grudge against either poster. Indeed, I enjoy the fact we're all able to debate to a high standard here, usually without it turning into name-calling or vindictiveness.
It seems to be a part of how polarised the debate has become that the positions move further apart from each other. I agree, I would always call a transsexual who had undergone gender reassignment surgery by their newly assigned gender. It seems kind and courteous (I would not automatically extend this to someone who had not yet undergone gender reassignment surgery, and I certainly would not if they had no intention of doing so). But when the dust settles on this argument, and those who share Cyclefree's views have won, as they will, we may find ourselves 'to the right' of where we were before.
Indeed. If I suddenly decided to identify as "she" despite the fact I'm a bedraggled middle aged dude with a beard, I wouldn't expect anyone else to identify me as such.
I do have one or two MTF friends who began their transition over a decade ago, and had "the op" years ago, and to call them "he" at this point isn't just disrespectful, it's absurd, if you ever met them. Ditto forcing them to use a male toilet., when they 100% pass as female and no longer have the male "equipment".
The line gets drawn somewhere in the middle of that transition. Cyclefree's decision to continue describing trans women who have fully completed their transition, post-op, as male, was a bit beyond the pale for me, tbh. It's a bit of a dog whistle at that point, that no matter what you do, up to and including having your own johnson cut off, will never be enough.
Tbh if someone is serious enough about being born in the wrong body they're willing to undergo such invasive surgery, I think calling them by she/her pronouns is a pretty reasonable, kind, and civilised thing to do.
The trans debate just seems to turn people on both sides a bit mad. Trans derangement syndrome.
It may be a cop out but I liked the good old days when we all fudged the issue in a very British way and nobody got too offended.
Comments
Fat chance of that.
@malcolmg versus @Nigel_Foremain is quite magnificently unhinged
Second as CCHQ ensured the shortlists given to Tory Associations in safe seats where incumbent Tory MPs stood down were only Sunak loyalist centrists
reading up on south staffs, they changed the rules following it to allow the nominating party to nominate again
That may be the case, I've no idea. But it's hard to escape that conclusion.
These are the seats where the Brexit vote was a vote against immigration, and where they feel they have been betrayed: not just by immigration, but also by levelling up and the cancelling of the HS2 extension.
I guess the Conservative vote will hold up better in more prosperous parts of the UK - the South East and in suburban areas: i.e. places where the principal challenge to the Conservatives is from the LibDems.
Edit. See it was 2010.
But I also think it’s interesting to try to work out who has the most 180 degree opposite world view to your own world view on here. One’s ideological nemesis. I know who mine is. The nice thing is it’s usually (usually) possible to have a civilised exchange even with one’s ideological nemesis.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thirsk_and_Malton_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s
Can't remember any since.
Asked if I had insurance on my vehicle, said of course I did, and they said its showing on their system as uninsured. I said I got it through the dealer, which I did. Their colleague asked how long ago, I said it's a 73 reg so late last year, November from memory and it's a 12 month policy. Was asked if I had proof of insurance so searched my emails and pulled up the policy and showed it to him, he took a look and said he's satisfied but I should get in touch as it's not showing on their system. Glad I had phone signal to pull it up.
Had a deeper look since they drove off and spotted there's a typo on the reg plate on the certificate, which will be why it wasn't showing. Surprised it's just come up now as I've had it for ~8 months. Bad for a typo when it was arranged via the dealer.
I'll have to get in touch on Monday morning but not sure the legality of it now, would a typo on the reg plate void the policy?
Someone isn't telling the truth.
Approved.
While he'd do a terrific job of uniting (much of) the Conservative vote and (all of) the Reform vote, he'd also supercharge tactical voting against the Conservative-Reform Party.
Which is a big problem in FPTP, unless you're getting 45% of the vote. And I don't believe that a Conservative-Reform Party led by Farage would be getting 45% of the vote.
Though to be fair, I actually think both are quite intelligent and sound on most other issues, I'm just a metropolitan Londoner with a lot of queer friends.
IRL I often berate said friends for being unequivocally pro-immigration and pro-Palestine, but we somehow manage to maintain our friendships.
Tho I WILL be collecting in the million-to-1 chance I win
If the answer is JRM, the question is clearly not who is the next leader of mostbof the Tories.
She is *extremely* intelligent.
Secondly, so long as it was a good faith mistake, and not something you did to drive the price of the policy down, then the insurance company would almost certainly cover you for anything else that happened. The regulator really doesn't like insurance companies withdrawing coverage on technicalities.
But do call your insurance company as soon as you can. It's not much fun getting pulled over by the police.
Match stopped due to rain.
Turns out car insurance goes with the car VIN not the plate, and that should be correct. It's a call them up next week to get it sorted issue, not a don't drive until it's fixed thing - you are insured until then.
Duguid:
"I must however clear up a factual inaccuracy. It has been reported and repeated that I am “unable to stand”. This is simply incorrect. Having been adopted by local members, I was very much looking forward to campaigning - albeit in a different format from normal. It was not my decision not to stand.
It was the SCU Management Board that decided not to allow me to be the candidate although none of them had visited me. They apparently took this decision based on two visits from the Party Director and without receiving any professional medical prognosis."
Ross and the Tories put out that they had consulted with Duguid. He says they did not.
Corbyn is just a standard dim lefty fringe crank who got lucky when Labour nominated him for the lols. Farage single handedly turned UKIP into a major force, forced a referendum, and we brexited. Farage changed history, Corbyn is a footnote
And here is Farage again, transforming an election and threatening to destroy “the natural party of government”
The only similarity is that they are both polarising. That’s it
But as I say, I have no personal grudge against either poster. Indeed, I enjoy the fact we're all able to debate to a high standard here, usually without it turning into name-calling or vindictiveness.
Can anyone clear it up?
https://x.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1802053431382987203
“None of these” now comes top again for best PM. Need to have RON.
Prison term of Sandra ‘Sandy’ Hemme, 63, longest-known wrongful conviction of a woman in US history
A Missouri woman who was imprisoned for more than 40 years for murder has had her conviction overturned after a judge found “clear and convincing” evidence that she was innocent of the killing in question.
Sandra “Sandy” Hemme, 63, was convicted of – and sentenced to life imprisonment for – the 1980 slaying of Patricia Jeschke, a library worker in St Joseph, Missouri, after Hemme made statements to the police incriminating herself while she was a psychiatric patient.
On Friday, Livingston county circuit judge Ryan Horsman ruled that “evidence directly” ties the killing of Jeschke to a local police officer who later went to prison for another crime and has since died.
Hemme, who has spent the last 43 years behind bars, must be freed within 30 days unless prosecutors decide to re-try her, the judge said. The ruling came after an evidentiary hearing in January where Hemme’s legal team presented arguments supporting her evidence.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jun/15/missouri-woman-freed-43-years-wrongful-conviction-?CMP=twt_b-gdnnews
Farage hasn't.
FWIW I reckon both would be TERRIBLE prime ministers, for very different reasons
I’ve suffered twice from the Cleggasm and the Swinson next PM delusion and it is all right, everything is all right, the struggle is finished. I have won the victory over myself. I love FPTP. (Well I hate it, but my hate won’t change anything).
You'd have thought though if that was the case then - certainly if it was tragic rather than unsavoury - they'd have reached out quietly to explain the situation and you'd just not bring it up. So unsavoury it is!
Friday 5th July is going to be the same. Phew, people will be saying. Got rid.
And on that non-bombshell, I must abed in bomby, power-cutty Odessa. I hope we all survive the night
The Survation projections are just one more example of a seat calculator starting to break down when it tries to model very large shifts in public opinion. Their list of suggestions doesn't include Rotherham, which we all appreciate is a chance due to local circumstances, but does include a selection of very remote prospects. Apart from Ashfield and Clacton, the only other remotely plausible suggestion in the Survation 7 is Yarmouth, as anyone who has ever been there may appreciate.
The US ambassador has arrived in Odessa.
https://x.com/USAmbKyiv/status/1801985966309101643
Maybe meet up for drinks and a flint exclusive if you are still there?
Farage is a more accomplished polemicist than Corbyn. He’s also more relatable to most people.
Corbyn however is more of a Jesus-like prophet. A blanket canvas on to which his disciples could project whatever they liked.
Farage the charismatic entertainer. Corbyn the mysterious otherworldly ascetic. Farage the Martin McGuinness, Corbyn the Gerry Adams.
Edit - ooops. I'll shut up.
I do have one or two MTF friends who began their transition over a decade ago, and had "the op" years ago, and to call them "he" at this point isn't just disrespectful, it's absurd, if you ever met them. Ditto forcing them to use a male toilet., when they 100% pass as female and no longer have the male "equipment".
The line gets drawn somewhere in the middle of that transition. Cyclefree's decision to continue describing trans women who have fully completed their transition, post-op, as male, was a bit beyond the pale for me, tbh. It's a bit of a dog whistle at that point, that no matter what you do, up to and including having your own johnson cut off, will never be enough.
Tbh if someone is serious enough about being born in the wrong body they're willing to undergo such invasive surgery, I think calling them by she/her pronouns is a pretty reasonable, kind, and civilised thing to do.
I know why that is.
I think every other pollster have Labour down. Hmm, no. Deltapoll are L+1. So there's a wider divergence.
I can only totally agree with you that for me, for all sorts of reasons, the cut off point should be the cut off point. A post-op transsexual surely represents a vanishingly small threat of sexual assault in a women's loo or a prison - I would imagine similar statistically to being attacked by a fellow woman. I am open to the contrary being shown to be true.
That's probably beyond them, so the key is will the rain return in the first five overs?
Labour win an 80-90 seat majority. Not as huge as some polls suggested, but pretty damn good
Conservatives keep 200 seats. A big sigh of relief. Live to fight another day. Just the pendulum of democracy
Lib Dems get 35 seats, including a couple of notable blue wall scalps. Pretty good. Not the mad numbers some polls were showing but by far the best since 2010.
SNP do much better than feared. Swingback in the closing stages and a collapse of unionist tactical voting. They lose seats, but remain 3rd party in Westminster
Reform win 2 or 3 seats including Clactom, even though their vote gets seriously squeezed. Nigel has his place in the sun and a foothold to justify more appearances on QT.
Greens keep Brighton Pavilion and win Bristol central.
Galloway retains Rochdale. The grift goes on.
In that scenario everyone might head off on summer holidays feeling reasonably contented.
Namibia and the Tory Party.
WTF! He won 40%! The apparently amazing "Lord" Cameron got 36% and then 37% and was PM twice. Corbs didn't win but he didn't get 40% through mere luck either.
It may be a cop out but I liked the good old days when we all fudged the issue in a very British way and nobody got too offended.