The SNP score is particularly disappointing for me and I find it hard to relate to what I am seeing on the ground in Scotland. The SNP are almost invisible because they have no money. We have had 1 leaflet from the SNP and 6 from the Tories (neither Labour nor the Lib Dems are wasting their time in this constituency, I am not even sure Reform are standing). This is in an SNP seat.
Will that make a difference, other than to the recycling bins? Who knows, but it is a long time since the SNP have had so little impact in a major election. I will be gutted if they pick up 37 seats, gutted.
On the ground in ANME: Tories - their freepost is dropping. Addressed to household not voter. No other activity that we are aware of SNP - no money but plenty of bodies. Extensively doorknocking. Labour - nothing at all Reform - nothing at all LibDem - selected doorknocking. We're targeting key wards rather than the whole constituency. Targets will get quite a lot of stuff through the letterbox. Plus a targeted Facebook ad campaign which will be pretty intensive in the remaining weeks
As for the SNP, we're getting that much of their vote is softer than usual. A lot of upset about the state of public services. The odd mention of corruption. Frequent mentions of arrogance and being taken for granted...
Given the awful week they have had the Survation MPR isn't that bad for the Tories. They remain official opposition ahead of the LDs and are still ahead of Reform on votes as well as seats.
Obviously it is excellent for Labour, giving them an even bigger majority than New Labour got in 1997. Not that good for the SNP though, even 37 seats would be 11 fewer than they have now and almost as bad as the 35 they got in 2017
The Survation MRP was conducted over two weeks, not just the last week which I agree was awful for the Tories.
Have to agree with you - SNP and Reform are a buy, Tories a sell.
I wouldn't sell the Tories at 108.
I'm not going to be dabbling in the spreads this time.
But.
Almost every Tory I know won't be voting Tory this time.
I'd take 108 any day. Suspect reality could be a lot worse.
If they aren't voting Tory this time they aren't really Tories are they. Either swing voters if voting Labour or LD or rightwing nationalists if voting Reform
Are my wife and I conservatives then following our decision this morning to vote conservative
As you are in Wales, true Conservatives would be voting Plaid Cymru.
Yes and absolutely not (but maybe with one exception on here !!!!!l)
- RefUK is 12% vote share = 7 seats (1% = 0.6 seats) - Conservative is 24% vote share = 72 seats (1% = 3 seats) - Lib Dem is 11% vote share = 56 seats (1% = 5.1 seats) - SNP is 4% vote share = 37 seats (1% = 9.25 seats) - Labour is 40% vote share = 456 seats (1% = 11.4 seats)
What does the 40 year average look like? At a guess Tories have benefited at the expense of LDs, Labour where they should be. Greens and kippers absolutely shafted.
Reform’s aim must be to get 15% and at least one seat: Farage
Farage then stands a chance of doing a reverse-takeover of the rump Tory party post-election, if the Tories end up with ~20-22% and 70-110 seats
I think it’s highly unlikely (but not impossible) they can overtake the Tories in total votes and essentially impossible for them to do it in terms of seats
Here's the thing, though: Reform is likely to do much better in the Red Wall than in the South East. The Rump Conservative Party is therefore going to be full of MPs who are more terrified of the Yellow Peril than of losing to Reform.
But Farage might be far and away the most inspiring candidate for leader if he is willing to defect/merge
That’s the ting. Farage has the oomph and he appeals to the young. He is the one chance of the Tories storming back to power with an entirely new agenda. Proper right wing policies
If they elect some wet fool like tugendhat it means the Tories are accepting 10-15 years in opposition
Tory members won't elect Tugendhat, Tory MPs might put him in the last 2 but the rightwing alternative MPs put up against him, Barclay, Cleverly most likely of surviving MPs, less likely Badenoch, Jenrick or Patel would probably win.
Farage gets the right back to 30-35% if he led a united Tory and Reform party under FPTP but that is it. He also needs to win over 2019 Conservatives now voting Labour or LD and avoid any One Nation Tories going LD if he became leader of their party
Reform’s aim must be to get 15% and at least one seat: Farage
Farage then stands a chance of doing a reverse-takeover of the rump Tory party post-election, if the Tories end up with ~20-22% and 70-110 seats
I think it’s highly unlikely (but not impossible) they can overtake the Tories in total votes and essentially impossible for them to do it in terms of seats
I think Farage is hoping for more than one. His ideal is a handful, and level or better than Tories in %.
If he got 30 or 40 he would have all sorts of problems with inexperienced politicians who didn't actually want to win the seat, which would jeopardise the long game he is playing.
Given the amount he smokes and drinks, I would advise him to play a shorter game.
That's Farage's other problem. The calendar and his age don't really work.
It is just me of has Sunak had a relatively quiet few days. Has he been benched?
I don't know, but I suspect that senior party figures (Cameron? Hague? May?) have been in conclave going over ALL aspects of the campaign until polling day - and giving it a damned good kicking. Sunak will do as he is told.
Reform’s aim must be to get 15% and at least one seat: Farage
Farage then stands a chance of doing a reverse-takeover of the rump Tory party post-election, if the Tories end up with ~20-22% and 70-110 seats
I think it’s highly unlikely (but not impossible) they can overtake the Tories in total votes and essentially impossible for them to do it in terms of seats
Here's the thing, though: Reform is likely to do much better in the Red Wall than in the South East. The Rump Conservative Party is therefore going to be full of MPs who are more terrified of the Yellow Peril than of losing to Reform.
Yes, landslide defeat should at least make the Tory Parliamentary party rather posher than it was from 2019 to the recent dissolution (most of the losers will be MPs from the redwall and leave seats, even if a minority in the Home Counties and west London lose to the LDs like Hunt).
Much more private school and Oxbridge and the City or law or SPAD background and also it may be acceptable to even have a Tory MP to dinner again at Hampstead or Kensington and Chelsea or North Oxford dinner parties or one of TSE's candlelit suppers without having to worry about them being a working class by background hard Brexiteer from north of Watford. However the hosts still wouldn't be seen dead inviting a Reform MP or candidate to one of their posh dinner parties
1. The trend is your friend. Reform/LibDems up. Lab/Con down 2. Look for sample dates/events 3. Full tactical voting trend yet to play out 4. No constituency polling yet. 5. Give a point or two split appears Centre Left/Left 60% Centre Right/ Right 40% 6. Electoral history is your guide not a certainty. 7. Your local knowledge is valuable.
That said my feel for the final GB result is %/seats
Lab 40% .. 480 Con 20% .. 60 Ref 17% .. 3 LD 15% .. 69 Gr 4% .. 2 SNP 3% .. 11 PC 2% ... 4 Others .. 3
Reform’s aim must be to get 15% and at least one seat: Farage
Farage then stands a chance of doing a reverse-takeover of the rump Tory party post-election, if the Tories end up with ~20-22% and 70-110 seats
I think it’s highly unlikely (but not impossible) they can overtake the Tories in total votes and essentially impossible for them to do it in terms of seats
I think Farage is hoping for more than one. His ideal is a handful, and level or better than Tories in %.
If he got 30 or 40 he would have all sorts of problems with inexperienced politicians who didn't actually want to win the seat, which would jeopardise the long game he is playing.
Given the amount he smokes and drinks, I would advise him to play a shorter game.
Brutal but a fair point that illustrates Reforms biggest problem and asset.
Hence he needs to reverse takeover the Conservatives, ie merge with them as the smaller party but take them over ideologically. I suspect it would see a split with the one nation torys defecting to the Libdems.
It is just me of has Sunak had a relatively quiet few days. Has he been benched?
He has been at the G7 meeting re security for Ukraine
And he didn't leave early as far as I know !!!
Normally a pm in a campaign would be using this an opportunity to press their statesman persona differentiating heavily from the LotO. Sunak is not doing that. Odd.
Reform’s aim must be to get 15% and at least one seat: Farage
Farage then stands a chance of doing a reverse-takeover of the rump Tory party post-election, if the Tories end up with ~20-22% and 70-110 seats
I think it’s highly unlikely (but not impossible) they can overtake the Tories in total votes and essentially impossible for them to do it in terms of seats
Here's the thing, though: Reform is likely to do much better in the Red Wall than in the South East. The Rump Conservative Party is therefore going to be full of MPs who are more terrified of the Yellow Peril than of losing to Reform.
But Farage might be far and away the most inspiring candidate for leader if he is willing to defect/merge
That’s the ting. Farage has the oomph and he appeals to the young. He is the one chance of the Tories storming back to power with an entirely new agenda. Proper right wing policies
If they elect some wet fool like tugendhat it means the Tories are accepting 10-15 years in opposition
Tory members won't elect Tugendhat, Tory MPs might put him in the last 2 but the rightwing alternative MPs put up against him, Barclay, Cleverly most likely of surviving MPs, less likely Badenoch, Jenrick or Patel would probably win.
Farage gets the right back to 30-35% if he led a united Tory and Reform party under FPTP but that is it. He also needs to win over 2019 Conservatives now voting Labour or LD and avoid any One Nation Tories going LD if he became leader of their party
Reform’s aim must be to get 15% and at least one seat: Farage
Farage then stands a chance of doing a reverse-takeover of the rump Tory party post-election, if the Tories end up with ~20-22% and 70-110 seats
I think it’s highly unlikely (but not impossible) they can overtake the Tories in total votes and essentially impossible for them to do it in terms of seats
Here's the thing, though: Reform is likely to do much better in the Red Wall than in the South East. The Rump Conservative Party is therefore going to be full of MPs who are more terrified of the Yellow Peril than of losing to Reform.
Yes, landslide defeat should at least make the Tory Parliamentary party rather posher than it was in 2019.
Much more private school and Oxbridge and the City or law or SPAD background and also it may be acceptable to even have a Tory MP to dinner again at Hampstead or Kensington and Chelsea dinner parties or one of TSE's candlelit suppers without having to worry about them being a working class by background hard Brexiteer from north of Watford. However the hosts still wouldn't be seen dead inviting a Reform MP or candidate to one of their posh dinner parties
Your posts are well mint. I appreciate good writing, and these are among the best.
That Opinium poll is the most recent so I suggest it’s the most accurate. Gentle decline for the two “big” parties albeit with Labour WAYY ahead
Gentle rise for Reform/LDs
Plucking numbers out of my Cornish butt I expect these trends to continue but not dramatically. So, barring black swans, here’s my mid campaign guess at a final share at the GE
"One thing largely unnoticed in Labour’s manifesto: it will give public bodies a legal duty to reduce inequality (by enacting the socio-economic duty in the 2010 Equality Act for the first time). The socio-economic duty would have posed a significant legal obstacle to austerity (one reason the Conservatives never enacted it)."
Which means they will likely face a huge economic crises before their first term is out (along the lines of having to raise interest rates significantly to shift gilts and shore up the £). The government is already spending more on interest than defence and education combined).
I said on here yesterday that SKS could be a one-term PM, and got pilloried for it.
I must say, I'm looking forward to being hailed as a great prophet if (when) it happens.
You still haven’t clarified whether you expect Labour to be swept from office after one term, or whether you simply see Starmer handing on to Reeves or Streeting?
Reform’s aim must be to get 15% and at least one seat: Farage
Farage then stands a chance of doing a reverse-takeover of the rump Tory party post-election, if the Tories end up with ~20-22% and 70-110 seats
I think it’s highly unlikely (but not impossible) they can overtake the Tories in total votes and essentially impossible for them to do it in terms of seats
Here's the thing, though: Reform is likely to do much better in the Red Wall than in the South East. The Rump Conservative Party is therefore going to be full of MPs who are more terrified of the Yellow Peril than of losing to Reform.
We need two non-Labour parties which can be personified by the figures of Cameron and Farage.
One would be the continuity coalition and the other would represent the revolt against it.
They wouldn't compete directly agaisnt each other in many places, but both would be a danger to Labour and could eventually reduce Labour to a rump.
Who needs that? Not the 40% of voters who are SBK fans please explain.
When Sir Beer Korma fans wake up with a hangover and need a detox, they'll be looking for an alternative and will want a choice.
Not much evidence of the Faragasm in tonight’s polls.
Shhhh @Leon doesn’t want to hear this. He thinks Farage is the most exciting person since the last most exciting person he championed and that ALL the young people LOVE him.
Why are people suggesting the Reform vote could "go home" to the Tories? Read the polling and the mood - most Reform voters actively want the Tories to lose. Thats the whole point in voting Reform.
That Opinium poll is the most recent so I suggest it’s the most accurate. Gentle decline for the two “big” parties albeit with Labour WAYY ahead
Gentle rise for Reform/LDs
Plucking numbers out of my Cornish butt I expect these trends to continue but not dramatically. So, barring black swans, here’s my mid campaign guess at a final share at the GE
Labour: 38 Con: 21 Ref: 16 LD: 14 Green: 4 SNP: 3
Baxtered, that gives:
Labour: 442 Con: 95 Ref: 3 LD: 65 SNP: 21
That doesn’t look too far from a likely reality
I’m with you on the Labour score. I think late 30s is likely.
Reform’s aim must be to get 15% and at least one seat: Farage
Farage then stands a chance of doing a reverse-takeover of the rump Tory party post-election, if the Tories end up with ~20-22% and 70-110 seats
I think it’s highly unlikely (but not impossible) they can overtake the Tories in total votes and essentially impossible for them to do it in terms of seats
Here's the thing, though: Reform is likely to do much better in the Red Wall than in the South East. The Rump Conservative Party is therefore going to be full of MPs who are more terrified of the Yellow Peril than of losing to Reform.
We need two non-Labour parties which can be personified by the figures of Cameron and Farage.
One would be the continuity coalition and the other would represent the revolt against it.
They wouldn't compete directly agaisnt each other in many places, but both would be a danger to Labour and could eventually reduce Labour to a rump.
Who needs that? Not the 40% of voters who are SBK fans please explain.
When Sir Beer Korma fans wake up with a hangover and need a detox, they'll be looking for an alternative and will want a choice.
Well, that was the theory behind Absolute Boy as PM.
The SNP score is particularly disappointing for me and I find it hard to relate to what I am seeing on the ground in Scotland. The SNP are almost invisible because they have no money. We have had 1 leaflet from the SNP and 6 from the Tories (neither Labour nor the Lib Dems are wasting their time in this constituency, I am not even sure Reform are standing). This is in an SNP seat.
Will that make a difference, other than to the recycling bins? Who knows, but it is a long time since the SNP have had so little impact in a major election. I will be gutted if they pick up 37 seats, gutted.
On the ground in ANME: Tories - their freepost is dropping. Addressed to household not voter. No other activity that we are aware of SNP - no money but plenty of bodies. Extensively doorknocking. Labour - nothing at all Reform - nothing at all LibDem - selected doorknocking. We're targeting key wards rather than the whole constituency. Targets will get quite a lot of stuff through the letterbox. Plus a targeted Facebook ad campaign which will be pretty intensive in the remaining weeks
As for the SNP, we're getting that much of their vote is softer than usual. A lot of upset about the state of public services. The odd mention of corruption. Frequent mentions of arrogance and being taken for granted...
I guess likely outcome there is Tories & SNP in mid-30s with Lab 3rd and Libs 4th. Think Ross will edge it. Sorry, but I doubt there is a huge suppressed LibDem vote just waiting to surge out from Buckie, Fraserburgh and Peterhead.
That Opinium poll is the most recent so I suggest it’s the most accurate. Gentle decline for the two “big” parties albeit with Labour WAYY ahead
Gentle rise for Reform/LDs
Plucking numbers out of my Cornish butt I expect these trends to continue but not dramatically. So, barring black swans, here’s my mid campaign guess at a final share at the GE
Labour: 38 Con: 21 Ref: 16 LD: 14 Green: 4 SNP: 3
Baxtered, that gives:
Labour: 442 Con: 95 Ref: 3 LD: 65 SNP: 21
That doesn’t look too far from a likely reality
I’m with you on the Labour score. I think late 30s is likely.
They might win the election, but they won't have won the Argument.
Reform’s aim must be to get 15% and at least one seat: Farage
Farage then stands a chance of doing a reverse-takeover of the rump Tory party post-election, if the Tories end up with ~20-22% and 70-110 seats
I think it’s highly unlikely (but not impossible) they can overtake the Tories in total votes and essentially impossible for them to do it in terms of seats
Here's the thing, though: Reform is likely to do much better in the Red Wall than in the South East. The Rump Conservative Party is therefore going to be full of MPs who are more terrified of the Yellow Peril than of losing to Reform.
Yes, landslide defeat should at least make the Tory Parliamentary party rather posher than it was from 2019 to the recent dissolution (most of the losers will be MPs from the redwall and leave seats, even if a minority in the Home Counties and west London lose to the LDs like Hunt).
Much more private school and Oxbridge and the City or law or SPAD background and also it may be acceptable to even have a Tory MP to dinner again at Hampstead or Kensington and Chelsea or North Oxford dinner parties or one of TSE's candlelit suppers without having to worry about them being a working class by background hard Brexiteer from north of Watford. However the hosts still wouldn't be seen dead inviting a Reform MP or candidate to one of their posh dinner parties
Probably accurate and also sums up one of the UKs greatest problems - that class snobbery among the great and good hasn't gone away you know...
There was a moment last weekend when one of Rishi Sunak’s closest allies thought he had thrown in the towel. Badly bruised by the fury about his decision to come home early from the D-Day commemorations, the prime minister contemplated a disappearing act. “He was in a really bad way at the weekend,” one confidant revealed. “He wasn’t going to quit, but he was mulling whether he needed to completely remove himself from the election and let other people do it.”
On Monday, however, Sunak had snapped out of his depression. One of those who was on his 2022 leadership team, when he lost to Liz Truss, said: “He’s like he was then. He was down for the first half of the campaign and then he decided he was just going to throw everything at it. His attitude is that he has to go out and swing for the fences.”
1. The trend is your friend. Reform/LibDems up. Lab/Con down 2. Look for sample dates/events 3. Full tactical voting trend yet to play out 4. No constituency polling yet. 5. Give a point or two split appears Centre Left/Left 60% Centre Right/ Right 40% 6. Electoral history is your guide not a certainty. 7. Your local knowledge is valuable.
That said my feel for the final GB result is %/seats
Lab 40% .. 480 Con 20% .. 60 Ref 17% .. 3 LD 15% .. 69 Gr 4% .. 2 SNP 3% .. 11 PC 2% ... 4 Others .. 3
Not much evidence of the Faragasm in tonight’s polls.
Shhhh @Leon doesn’t want to hear this. He thinks Farage is the most exciting person since the last most exciting person he championed and that ALL the young people LOVE him.
Meanwhile, back in reality ...
I just predicted Farage will fall notably short of the Tory share and gain a mighty tally of 3 seats. Other than that yes I am doing moneyshots
Have to agree with you - SNP and Reform are a buy, Tories a sell.
I wouldn't sell the Tories at 108.
I'm not going to be dabbling in the spreads this time.
But.
Almost every Tory I know won't be voting Tory this time.
I'd take 108 any day. Suspect reality could be a lot worse.
If they aren't voting Tory this time they aren't really Tories are they? Either swing voters if voting Labour or LD or rightwing nationalists if voting Reform
Several are Tory members.
Tory enough for you?
No, clearly they are Farage loving, anti immigration hard Brexiteers more than Tories.
Nothing necessarily wrong with that but they aren't loyal Tories.
To be a loyal Tory one has to be voting for Rishi now and also to have voted for Boris in 2019, to have voted for Major in 1997 as well as in 1992, for Hague in 2001 as well as Cameron in 2010
Sighs of relief from CCHQ that there’s not been huge leaps for REF in these polls.
Was the fieldwork done after the YouGov Crossover was reported?
Given the vote share in their previous polls, it would have taken a huge rise in Reform to overtake them this time.
The % movement is consistent with Yougov though.
It is very difficult to weight correctly when minor parties abruptly start to perform exceptionally well on a sample of 1,000 to 2,000 , as you don't have previous behaviour to baseline it with.
What we do know from UKIP and from the Alliance in the 1980s, is that parties start of geographically dispersed, and then their vote gets more efficient over time, as they (a) learn to target resources efficiently, and (b) build up a councillor base that enables them to be "winning here".
That would be true for a normal party, but Reform are either a Farage Publicity Vehicle, or a Special Purpose Vehicle created for the purpose of taking over the Tories.
If they were aiming to do things the way a normal party does things then Farage would have been hard at work since Johnson was given the heave, and they'd probably have made a start on building up councillors.
That Opinium poll is the most recent so I suggest it’s the most accurate. Gentle decline for the two “big” parties albeit with Labour WAYY ahead
Gentle rise for Reform/LDs
Plucking numbers out of my Cornish butt I expect these trends to continue but not dramatically. So, barring black swans, here’s my mid campaign guess at a final share at the GE
Labour: 38 Con: 21 Ref: 16 LD: 14 Green: 4 SNP: 3
Baxtered, that gives:
Labour: 442 Con: 95 Ref: 3 LD: 65 SNP: 21
That doesn’t look too far from a likely reality
I’m with you on the Labour score. I think late 30s is likely.
They might win the election, but they won't have won the Argument.
There’s a place in Momentum waiting for you after the election.
That Opinium poll is the most recent so I suggest it’s the most accurate. Gentle decline for the two “big” parties albeit with Labour WAYY ahead
Gentle rise for Reform/LDs
Plucking numbers out of my Cornish butt I expect these trends to continue but not dramatically. So, barring black swans, here’s my mid campaign guess at a final share at the GE
Labour: 38 Con: 21 Ref: 16 LD: 14 Green: 4 SNP: 3
Baxtered, that gives:
Labour: 442 Con: 95 Ref: 3 LD: 65 SNP: 21
That doesn’t look too far from a likely reality
I’m with you on the Labour score. I think late 30s is likely.
They might win the election, but they won't have won the Argument.
That Opinium poll is the most recent so I suggest it’s the most accurate. Gentle decline for the two “big” parties albeit with Labour WAYY ahead
Gentle rise for Reform/LDs
Plucking numbers out of my Cornish butt I expect these trends to continue but not dramatically. So, barring black swans, here’s my mid campaign guess at a final share at the GE
Labour: 38 Con: 21 Ref: 16 LD: 14 Green: 4 SNP: 3
Baxtered, that gives:
Labour: 442 Con: 95 Ref: 3 LD: 65 SNP: 21
That doesn’t look too far from a likely reality
I’m with you on the Labour score. I think late 30s is likely.
Reform’s aim must be to get 15% and at least one seat: Farage
Farage then stands a chance of doing a reverse-takeover of the rump Tory party post-election, if the Tories end up with ~20-22% and 70-110 seats
I think it’s highly unlikely (but not impossible) they can overtake the Tories in total votes and essentially impossible for them to do it in terms of seats
Seeing the loyalty to Brand Tory on the doorsteps, the only way Reform poll 15% is for Labour to shed some significant votes to them. I don't see there being any chance Reform overtake the Conservatives in actual votes. The Conservatives can then tell Farage to spin on it - and begin to build their vote share on the back of Labour being a disaster.
Reform’s aim must be to get 15% and at least one seat: Farage
Farage then stands a chance of doing a reverse-takeover of the rump Tory party post-election, if the Tories end up with ~20-22% and 70-110 seats
I think it’s highly unlikely (but not impossible) they can overtake the Tories in total votes and essentially impossible for them to do it in terms of seats
Here's the thing, though: Reform is likely to do much better in the Red Wall than in the South East. The Rump Conservative Party is therefore going to be full of MPs who are more terrified of the Yellow Peril than of losing to Reform.
We need two non-Labour parties which can be personified by the figures of Cameron and Farage.
One would be the continuity coalition and the other would represent the revolt against it.
They wouldn't compete directly agaisnt each other in many places, but both would be a danger to Labour and could eventually reduce Labour to a rump.
That only works under PR or AV, with FPTP they just split the right and give Labour a landslide as on current polls
No sign of convergence between pollsters. Exit poll will be fascinating.
The uncertainty now is just as to whether the Tories get a very bad result, or a calamitous result where they fall behind another party on vote share and/or seats.
What we have definitely not seen is any 'swingback' or Tory recovery in any polls. It's just that different pollsters put their situation at varying levels of desperate.
18 days of campaigning for that to change. Maybe Reform momentum will fade and they'll bounce off their current lows, but the recovery up to 30% now seems implausible.
There was a moment last weekend when one of Rishi Sunak’s closest allies thought he had thrown in the towel. Badly bruised by the fury about his decision to come home early from the D-Day commemorations, the prime minister contemplated a disappearing act. “He was in a really bad way at the weekend,” one confidant revealed. “He wasn’t going to quit, but he was mulling whether he needed to completely remove himself from the election and let other people do it.”
On Monday, however, Sunak had snapped out of his depression. One of those who was on his 2022 leadership team, when he lost to Liz Truss, said: “He’s like he was then. He was down for the first half of the campaign and then he decided he was just going to throw everything at it. His attitude is that he has to go out and swing for the fences.”
Not much evidence of the Faragasm in tonight’s polls.
Shhhh @Leon doesn’t want to hear this. He thinks Farage is the most exciting person since the last most exciting person he championed and that ALL the young people LOVE him.
Meanwhile, back in reality ...
I just predicted Farage will fall notably short of the Tory share and gain a mighty tally of 3 seats. Other than that yes I am doing moneyshots
You came out with your usual rimming of Nigel Farage.
He’s the only politician with the charisma to lead the Conservatives, and young people love him etc. etc.
Just the usual utter bollocks you spout on here hour after hour.
That Opinium poll is the most recent so I suggest it’s the most accurate.
Ahhh good old Mike would have taken you to task for such a breach of The Golden Rule.
It’s also wrong. Savanta was the same 12th-14th timeframe.
But picking and choosing a poll which most fits your preconceived idea is a fool’s game, especially for those of us betting on outcomes.
Whatever. I’ve made a prediction, I note that it is very close to that of the Hon @JackW who even if he is in his 9th incarnation, knows a thing or two
1. The trend is your friend. Reform/LibDems up. Lab/Con down 2. Look for sample dates/events 3. Full tactical voting trend yet to play out 4. No constituency polling yet. 5. Give a point or two split appears Centre Left/Left 60% Centre Right/ Right 40% 6. Electoral history is your guide not a certainty. 7. Your local knowledge is valuable.
That said my feel for the final GB result is %/seats
Lab 40% .. 480 Con 20% .. 60 Ref 17% .. 3 LD 15% .. 69 Gr 4% .. 2 SNP 3% .. 11 PC 2% ... 4 Others .. 3
The ARSE makes a welcome return!
Oh that was an unfortunate juxtaposition. Maybe there is a God.
The SNP score is particularly disappointing for me and I find it hard to relate to what I am seeing on the ground in Scotland. The SNP are almost invisible because they have no money. We have had 1 leaflet from the SNP and 6 from the Tories (neither Labour nor the Lib Dems are wasting their time in this constituency, I am not even sure Reform are standing). This is in an SNP seat.
Will that make a difference, other than to the recycling bins? Who knows, but it is a long time since the SNP have had so little impact in a major election. I will be gutted if they pick up 37 seats, gutted.
On the ground in ANME: Tories - their freepost is dropping. Addressed to household not voter. No other activity that we are aware of SNP - no money but plenty of bodies. Extensively doorknocking. Labour - nothing at all Reform - nothing at all LibDem - selected doorknocking. We're targeting key wards rather than the whole constituency. Targets will get quite a lot of stuff through the letterbox. Plus a targeted Facebook ad campaign which will be pretty intensive in the remaining weeks
As for the SNP, we're getting that much of their vote is softer than usual. A lot of upset about the state of public services. The odd mention of corruption. Frequent mentions of arrogance and being taken for granted...
I guess likely outcome there is Tories & SNP in mid-30s with Lab 3rd and Libs 4th. Think Ross will edge it. Sorry, but I doubt there is a huge suppressed LibDem vote just waiting to surge out from Buckie, Fraserburgh and Peterhead.
Its possible! You've said a couple of times that there isn't a suppressed LD vote - it isn't suppressed! We have councillors! As for finishing behind Labour? Sure - could happen. But there is no sign of a Labour vote here either - finished 4th in 2019 and have zero representation.
Ross vs Logan? I think Logan. Ross is deeply unpopular even amongst his own people - they leaked the "we think his expenses are dodgy" story last weekend and provided quotes to the newspaper...
Not much evidence of the Faragasm in tonight’s polls.
Shhhh @Leon doesn’t want to hear this. He thinks Farage is the most exciting person since the last most exciting person he championed and that ALL the young people LOVE him.
Meanwhile, back in reality ...
Its going to be a grim night but seeing Farage lose for the 9th time will be one of the highlights.
That Opinium poll is the most recent so I suggest it’s the most accurate. Gentle decline for the two “big” parties albeit with Labour WAYY ahead
Gentle rise for Reform/LDs
Plucking numbers out of my Cornish butt I expect these trends to continue but not dramatically. So, barring black swans, here’s my mid campaign guess at a final share at the GE
Labour: 38 Con: 21 Ref: 16 LD: 14 Green: 4 SNP: 3
Baxtered, that gives:
Labour: 442 Con: 95 Ref: 3 LD: 65 SNP: 21
That doesn’t look too far from a likely reality
I’m with you on the Labour score. I think late 30s is likely.
They might win the election, but they won't have won the Argument.
1. The trend is your friend. Reform/LibDems up. Lab/Con down 2. Look for sample dates/events 3. Full tactical voting trend yet to play out 4. No constituency polling yet. 5. Give a point or two split appears Centre Left/Left 60% Centre Right/ Right 40% 6. Electoral history is your guide not a certainty. 7. Your local knowledge is valuable.
That said my feel for the final GB result is %/seats
Lab 40% .. 480 Con 20% .. 60 Ref 17% .. 3 LD 15% .. 69 Gr 4% .. 2 SNP 3% .. 11 PC 2% ... 4 Others .. 3
Have to agree with you - SNP and Reform are a buy, Tories a sell.
I wouldn't sell the Tories at 108.
I'm not going to be dabbling in the spreads this time.
But.
Almost every Tory I know won't be voting Tory this time.
I'd take 108 any day. Suspect reality could be a lot worse.
If they aren't voting Tory this time they aren't really Tories are they? Either swing voters if voting Labour or LD or rightwing nationalists if voting Reform
Several are Tory members.
Tory enough for you?
No, clearly they are Farage loving, anti immigration hard Brexiteers more than Tories.
Nothing necessarily wrong with that but they aren't loyal Tories.
To be a loyal Tory one has to be voting for Rishi now and also to have voted for Boris in 2019, to have voted for Major in 1997 as well as in 1992, for Hague in 2001 as well as Cameron in 2010
There was a moment last weekend when one of Rishi Sunak’s closest allies thought he had thrown in the towel. Badly bruised by the fury about his decision to come home early from the D-Day commemorations, the prime minister contemplated a disappearing act. “He was in a really bad way at the weekend,” one confidant revealed. “He wasn’t going to quit, but he was mulling whether he needed to completely remove himself from the election and let other people do it.”
On Monday, however, Sunak had snapped out of his depression. One of those who was on his 2022 leadership team, when he lost to Liz Truss, said: “He’s like he was then. He was down for the first half of the campaign and then he decided he was just going to throw everything at it. His attitude is that he has to go out and swing for the fences.”
He is no good at swinging for fences. Boring competence is what he could - should - have offered.
Unfortunately after all the epic cock-ups he's made nobody will believe him if he offers it and it probably wouldn't be enough anyway.
Rishi got 43% in the 2022 Tory leadership vote with the members, that was closer than expected mid campaign when polls had a Truss landslide with the membership.
The final debate one on one with Starmer with no Farage a week before polling day is Rishi's chance to make his final case to undecideds
That Opinium poll is the most recent so I suggest it’s the most accurate.
Ahhh good old Mike would have taken you to task for such a breach of The Golden Rule.
It’s also wrong. Savanta was the same 12th-14th timeframe.
But picking and choosing a poll which most fits your preconceived idea is a fool’s game, especially for those of us betting on outcomes.
Whatever. I’ve made a prediction, I note that it is very close to that of the Hon @JackW who even if he is in his 9th incarnation, knows a thing or two
It’s close to mine too as it happens but your rubbish about Farage just shows you are totally out of touch with this country. They guy repulses as much as he attracts, right across the spectrum and age bands. He is NOT the answer for the Conservative Party and certainly not for the country. Only in your own MAGAnut Trumpian fantasy world.
Not much evidence of the Faragasm in tonight’s polls.
Shhhh @Leon doesn’t want to hear this. He thinks Farage is the most exciting person since the last most exciting person he championed and that ALL the young people LOVE him.
Meanwhile, back in reality ...
I just predicted Farage will fall notably short of the Tory share and gain a mighty tally of 3 seats. Other than that yes I am doing moneyshots
You came out with your usual rimming of Nigel Farage.
He’s the only politician with the charisma to lead the Conservatives, and young people love him etc. etc.
Just the usual utter bollocks you spout on here hour after hour.
I’m just right. As ever. Farage is all over TikTok and is popular with the young in a way Starmer and Sunak can only dream
And when the Tories are down to 90 MPs and the choice is Steve Barclay or Suella Braverman suddenly Farage will look really appealing
Reform’s aim must be to get 15% and at least one seat: Farage
Farage then stands a chance of doing a reverse-takeover of the rump Tory party post-election, if the Tories end up with ~20-22% and 70-110 seats
I think it’s highly unlikely (but not impossible) they can overtake the Tories in total votes and essentially impossible for them to do it in terms of seats
Here's the thing, though: Reform is likely to do much better in the Red Wall than in the South East. The Rump Conservative Party is therefore going to be full of MPs who are more terrified of the Yellow Peril than of losing to Reform.
But Farage might be far and away the most inspiring candidate for leader if he is willing to defect/merge
That’s the ting. Farage has the oomph and he appeals to the young. He is the one chance of the Tories storming back to power with an entirely new agenda. Proper right wing policies
If they elect some wet fool like tugendhat it means the Tories are accepting 10-15 years in opposition
Tory members won't elect Tugendhat, Tory MPs might put him in the last 2 but the rightwing alternative MPs put up against him, Barclay, Cleverly most likely of surviving MPs, less likely Badenoch, Jenrick or Patel would probably win.
Farage gets the right back to 30-35% if he led a united Tory and Reform party under FPTP but that is it. He also needs to win over 2019 Conservatives now voting Labour or LD and avoid any One Nation Tories going LD if he became leader of their party
I think a Farage led Conservative party would struggle to hit 30%. The guy is marmite - a right wing Corbyn, who repels as many as he attracts.
What it does say, though, is there's a huge number of voters whose #1 priority now is immigration. Because, ultimately, that is what a vote for Farage is - it's a "tick this box if you think immigration is too high".
Both Labour and the Conservatives could shoot the Faragist fox tomorrow by providing concrete pledges on how to bring immigration down to sustainable levels, and to build infrastructure to cope with the influx we have now.
There was a moment last weekend when one of Rishi Sunak’s closest allies thought he had thrown in the towel. Badly bruised by the fury about his decision to come home early from the D-Day commemorations, the prime minister contemplated a disappearing act. “He was in a really bad way at the weekend,” one confidant revealed. “He wasn’t going to quit, but he was mulling whether he needed to completely remove himself from the election and let other people do it.”
On Monday, however, Sunak had snapped out of his depression. One of those who was on his 2022 leadership team, when he lost to Liz Truss, said: “He’s like he was then. He was down for the first half of the campaign and then he decided he was just going to throw everything at it. His attitude is that he has to go out and swing for the fences.”
There was a moment last weekend when one of Rishi Sunak’s closest allies thought he had thrown in the towel. Badly bruised by the fury about his decision to come home early from the D-Day commemorations, the prime minister contemplated a disappearing act. “He was in a really bad way at the weekend,” one confidant revealed. “He wasn’t going to quit, but he was mulling whether he needed to completely remove himself from the election and let other people do it.”
On Monday, however, Sunak had snapped out of his depression. One of those who was on his 2022 leadership team, when he lost to Liz Truss, said: “He’s like he was then. He was down for the first half of the campaign and then he decided he was just going to throw everything at it. His attitude is that he has to go out and swing for the fences.”
Reform’s aim must be to get 15% and at least one seat: Farage
Farage then stands a chance of doing a reverse-takeover of the rump Tory party post-election, if the Tories end up with ~20-22% and 70-110 seats
I think it’s highly unlikely (but not impossible) they can overtake the Tories in total votes and essentially impossible for them to do it in terms of seats
Here's the thing, though: Reform is likely to do much better in the Red Wall than in the South East. The Rump Conservative Party is therefore going to be full of MPs who are more terrified of the Yellow Peril than of losing to Reform.
But Farage might be far and away the most inspiring candidate for leader if he is willing to defect/merge
That’s the ting. Farage has the oomph and he appeals to the young. He is the one chance of the Tories storming back to power with an entirely new agenda. Proper right wing policies
This is almost verbatim what you wrote about Liz Truss too.
You are clueless when it comes to political judgement.
That Opinium poll is the most recent so I suggest it’s the most accurate.
Ahhh good old Mike would have taken you to task for such a breach of The Golden Rule.
It’s also wrong. Savanta was the same 12th-14th timeframe.
But picking and choosing a poll which most fits your preconceived idea is a fool’s game, especially for those of us betting on outcomes.
Whatever. I’ve made a prediction, I note that it is very close to that of the Hon @JackW who even if he is in his 9th incarnation, knows a thing or two
It’s close to mine too as it happens but your rubbish about Farage just shows you are totally out of touch with this country. They guy repulses as much as he attracts, right across the spectrum and age bands. He is NOT the answer for the Conservative Party and certainly not for the country. Only in your own MAGAnut Trumpian fantasy world.
You despise the Tories. You want them annihilated (as do I but for very different reasons). Why on earth should they take your advice, even if they can be persuaded that’s its genuine?
Reform’s aim must be to get 15% and at least one seat: Farage
Farage then stands a chance of doing a reverse-takeover of the rump Tory party post-election, if the Tories end up with ~20-22% and 70-110 seats
I think it’s highly unlikely (but not impossible) they can overtake the Tories in total votes and essentially impossible for them to do it in terms of seats
Here's the thing, though: Reform is likely to do much better in the Red Wall than in the South East. The Rump Conservative Party is therefore going to be full of MPs who are more terrified of the Yellow Peril than of losing to Reform.
But Farage might be far and away the most inspiring candidate for leader if he is willing to defect/merge
That’s the ting. Farage has the oomph and he appeals to the young. He is the one chance of the Tories storming back to power with an entirely new agenda. Proper right wing policies
If they elect some wet fool like tugendhat it means the Tories are accepting 10-15 years in opposition
Tory members won't elect Tugendhat, Tory MPs might put him in the last 2 but the rightwing alternative MPs put up against him, Barclay, Cleverly most likely of surviving MPs, less likely Badenoch, Jenrick or Patel would probably win.
Farage gets the right back to 30-35% if he led a united Tory and Reform party under FPTP but that is it. He also needs to win over 2019 Conservatives now voting Labour or LD and avoid any One Nation Tories going LD if he became leader of their party
I think a Farage led Conservative party would struggle to hit 30%. The guy is marmite - a right wing Corbyn, who repels as many as he attracts.
What it does say, though, is there's a huge number of voters whose #1 priority now is immigration. Because, ultimately, that is what a vote for Farage is - it's a "tick this box if you think immigration is too high".
Both Labour and the Conservatives could shoot the Faragist fox tomorrow by providing concrete pledges on how to bring immigration down to sustainable levels, and to build infrastructure to cope with the influx we have now.
No one would believe them. It is going to take more than words this time.
The SNP score is particularly disappointing for me and I find it hard to relate to what I am seeing on the ground in Scotland. The SNP are almost invisible because they have no money. We have had 1 leaflet from the SNP and 6 from the Tories (neither Labour nor the Lib Dems are wasting their time in this constituency, I am not even sure Reform are standing). This is in an SNP seat.
Will that make a difference, other than to the recycling bins? Who knows, but it is a long time since the SNP have had so little impact in a major election. I will be gutted if they pick up 37 seats, gutted.
On the ground in ANME: Tories - their freepost is dropping. Addressed to household not voter. No other activity that we are aware of SNP - no money but plenty of bodies. Extensively doorknocking. Labour - nothing at all Reform - nothing at all LibDem - selected doorknocking. We're targeting key wards rather than the whole constituency. Targets will get quite a lot of stuff through the letterbox. Plus a targeted Facebook ad campaign which will be pretty intensive in the remaining weeks
As for the SNP, we're getting that much of their vote is softer than usual. A lot of upset about the state of public services. The odd mention of corruption. Frequent mentions of arrogance and being taken for granted...
I guess likely outcome there is Tories & SNP in mid-30s with Lab 3rd and Libs 4th. Think Ross will edge it. Sorry, but I doubt there is a huge suppressed LibDem vote just waiting to surge out from Buckie, Fraserburgh and Peterhead.
Its possible! You've said a couple of times that there isn't a suppressed LD vote - it isn't suppressed! We have councillors! As for finishing behind Labour? Sure - could happen. But there is no sign of a Labour vote here either - finished 4th in 2019 and have zero representation.
Ross vs Logan? I think Logan. Ross is deeply unpopular even amongst his own people - they leaked the "we think his expenses are dodgy" story last weekend and provided quotes to the newspaper...
It was quite the thing, to see a Tory getting the Rayner treatment from his own side. Even - especially - if it did not come to anything in the end.
There was a moment last weekend when one of Rishi Sunak’s closest allies thought he had thrown in the towel. Badly bruised by the fury about his decision to come home early from the D-Day commemorations, the prime minister contemplated a disappearing act. “He was in a really bad way at the weekend,” one confidant revealed. “He wasn’t going to quit, but he was mulling whether he needed to completely remove himself from the election and let other people do it.”
On Monday, however, Sunak had snapped out of his depression. One of those who was on his 2022 leadership team, when he lost to Liz Truss, said: “He’s like he was then. He was down for the first half of the campaign and then he decided he was just going to throw everything at it. His attitude is that he has to go out and swing for the fences.”
There was a moment last weekend when one of Rishi Sunak’s closest allies thought he had thrown in the towel. Badly bruised by the fury about his decision to come home early from the D-Day commemorations, the prime minister contemplated a disappearing act. “He was in a really bad way at the weekend,” one confidant revealed. “He wasn’t going to quit, but he was mulling whether he needed to completely remove himself from the election and let other people do it.”
On Monday, however, Sunak had snapped out of his depression. One of those who was on his 2022 leadership team, when he lost to Liz Truss, said: “He’s like he was then. He was down for the first half of the campaign and then he decided he was just going to throw everything at it. His attitude is that he has to go out and swing for the fences.”
The whole Tory campaign is just weird. They keep persisting with President Sunak approach, but it clearly isn't working. Does he think he is way more popular than the party or something?
They came out going all Reform-y with National Service, then the manifesto was totally the opposite, no red meat for natural Tory voter.
Nothing makes any sense. And these are the people who called in the GE in the first place.
Reform’s aim must be to get 15% and at least one seat: Farage
Farage then stands a chance of doing a reverse-takeover of the rump Tory party post-election, if the Tories end up with ~20-22% and 70-110 seats
I think it’s highly unlikely (but not impossible) they can overtake the Tories in total votes and essentially impossible for them to do it in terms of seats
Seeing the loyalty to Brand Tory on the doorsteps, the only way Reform poll 15% is for Labour to shed some significant votes to them. I don't see there being any chance Reform overtake the Conservatives in actual votes. The Conservatives can then tell Farage to spin on it - and begin to build their vote share on the back of Labour being a disaster.
Yes, and polls are consistent with this narrative: Conservative vote down by less than 50%. But in fairness, they also consistently have Conservatives down by around 40%. Some of your reportage sounds like the vote is very sticky and loyal - maybe down by 10%, ending up on 39% nationally?
There was a moment last weekend when one of Rishi Sunak’s closest allies thought he had thrown in the towel. Badly bruised by the fury about his decision to come home early from the D-Day commemorations, the prime minister contemplated a disappearing act. “He was in a really bad way at the weekend,” one confidant revealed. “He wasn’t going to quit, but he was mulling whether he needed to completely remove himself from the election and let other people do it.”
On Monday, however, Sunak had snapped out of his depression. One of those who was on his 2022 leadership team, when he lost to Liz Truss, said: “He’s like he was then. He was down for the first half of the campaign and then he decided he was just going to throw everything at it. His attitude is that he has to go out and swing for the fences.”
He is no good at swinging for fences. Boring competence is what he could - should - have offered.
Unfortunately after all the epic cock-ups he's made nobody will believe him if he offers it and it probably wouldn't be enough anyway.
Rishi got 43% in the 2022 Tory leadership vote with the members, that was closer than expected mid campaign when polls had a Truss landslide with the membership.
The final debate one on one with Starmer with no Farage a week before polling day is Rishi's chance to make his final case to undecideds
Sunak lost to Truss. A woman so lazy, incompetent and arrogant she was comprehensively outmanoeuvred by that fat drunken old weirdo Sergey Lavrov. Losing to her at all, even with that electorate was a profound humiliation.
There was a moment last weekend when one of Rishi Sunak’s closest allies thought he had thrown in the towel. Badly bruised by the fury about his decision to come home early from the D-Day commemorations, the prime minister contemplated a disappearing act. “He was in a really bad way at the weekend,” one confidant revealed. “He wasn’t going to quit, but he was mulling whether he needed to completely remove himself from the election and let other people do it.”
On Monday, however, Sunak had snapped out of his depression. One of those who was on his 2022 leadership team, when he lost to Liz Truss, said: “He’s like he was then. He was down for the first half of the campaign and then he decided he was just going to throw everything at it. His attitude is that he has to go out and swing for the fences.”
Not much evidence of the Faragasm in tonight’s polls.
Shhhh @Leon doesn’t want to hear this. He thinks Farage is the most exciting person since the last most exciting person he championed and that ALL the young people LOVE him.
Meanwhile, back in reality ...
I just predicted Farage will fall notably short of the Tory share and gain a mighty tally of 3 seats. Other than that yes I am doing moneyshots
You came out with your usual rimming of Nigel Farage.
He’s the only politician with the charisma to lead the Conservatives, and young people love him etc. etc.
Just the usual utter bollocks you spout on here hour after hour.
I’m just right. As ever. Farage is all over TikTok and is popular with the young in a way Starmer and Sunak can only dream
And when the Tories are down to 90 MPs and the choice is Steve Barclay or Suella Braverman suddenly Farage will look really appealing
This website is full of people who want to believe Farage is the reincarnation of Oswald Mosley, and that his voters are racists.
They miss the point that the baseline Reform voter’s major grievance is that ITV cancelled Heartbeat, and if services worked and immigration “felt” under control, they would go back to that.
They also fail to see that Farage, like Boris, makes many people smile and fell good about themselves in a way few other current politicians do. Ken Clarke had it. Livingstone had it. It’s unevenly distributed.
Not much evidence of the Faragasm in tonight’s polls.
Shhhh @Leon doesn’t want to hear this. He thinks Farage is the most exciting person since the last most exciting person he championed and that ALL the young people LOVE him.
Meanwhile, back in reality ...
Its going to be a grim night but seeing Farage lose for the 9th time will be one of the highlights.
If you believe Farage is gonna lose in Clacton you can make easy money betting against him. He’s odds on: 1/3
New polling by Charlesbye Communications shows that Cameron is the public’s preferred candidate to assume the leadership again after the election. He was on 25 per cent, with Farage on 20 per cent, one point ahead of Mordaunt, with the current bookmakers’ favourite Kemi Badenoch on 8 per cent. In the same survey, 2019 Tory voters put Mordaunt top on 27 per cent, three ahead of Cameron and four ahead of Farage, with Badenoch on 6 per cent.
The SNP score is particularly disappointing for me and I find it hard to relate to what I am seeing on the ground in Scotland. The SNP are almost invisible because they have no money. We have had 1 leaflet from the SNP and 6 from the Tories (neither Labour nor the Lib Dems are wasting their time in this constituency, I am not even sure Reform are standing). This is in an SNP seat.
Will that make a difference, other than to the recycling bins? Who knows, but it is a long time since the SNP have had so little impact in a major election. I will be gutted if they pick up 37 seats, gutted.
On the ground in ANME: Tories - their freepost is dropping. Addressed to household not voter. No other activity that we are aware of SNP - no money but plenty of bodies. Extensively doorknocking. Labour - nothing at all Reform - nothing at all LibDem - selected doorknocking. We're targeting key wards rather than the whole constituency. Targets will get quite a lot of stuff through the letterbox. Plus a targeted Facebook ad campaign which will be pretty intensive in the remaining weeks
As for the SNP, we're getting that much of their vote is softer than usual. A lot of upset about the state of public services. The odd mention of corruption. Frequent mentions of arrogance and being taken for granted...
I guess likely outcome there is Tories & SNP in mid-30s with Lab 3rd and Libs 4th. Think Ross will edge it. Sorry, but I doubt there is a huge suppressed LibDem vote just waiting to surge out from Buckie, Fraserburgh and Peterhead.
Its possible! You've said a couple of times that there isn't a suppressed LD vote - it isn't suppressed! We have councillors! As for finishing behind Labour? Sure - could happen. But there is no sign of a Labour vote here either - finished 4th in 2019 and have zero representation.
Ross vs Logan? I think Logan. Ross is deeply unpopular even amongst his own people - they leaked the "we think his expenses are dodgy" story last weekend and provided quotes to the newspaper...
Interesting. I just suspect there may be a latent Labour vote in the larger towns which could appear. Buckie used to elect Labour cllrs not so long ago. I don't know anything about Logan except someone telling me he was pro-Sinn Fein. Not sure if thst is right. The "expenses story" btw went nowhere - Ross was exonerated by the parliamentary authorities despite Swinney's harrumphing.
There was a moment last weekend when one of Rishi Sunak’s closest allies thought he had thrown in the towel. Badly bruised by the fury about his decision to come home early from the D-Day commemorations, the prime minister contemplated a disappearing act. “He was in a really bad way at the weekend,” one confidant revealed. “He wasn’t going to quit, but he was mulling whether he needed to completely remove himself from the election and let other people do it.”
On Monday, however, Sunak had snapped out of his depression. One of those who was on his 2022 leadership team, when he lost to Liz Truss, said: “He’s like he was then. He was down for the first half of the campaign and then he decided he was just going to throw everything at it. His attitude is that he has to go out and swing for the fences.”
New polling by Charlesbye Communications shows that Cameron is the public’s preferred candidate to assume the leadership again after the election. He was on 25 per cent, with Farage on 20 per cent, one point ahead of Mordaunt, with the current bookmakers’ favourite Kemi Badenoch on 8 per cent. In the same survey, 2019 Tory voters put Mordaunt top on 27 per cent, three ahead of Cameron and four ahead of Farage, with Badenoch on 6 per cent.
There was a moment last weekend when one of Rishi Sunak’s closest allies thought he had thrown in the towel. Badly bruised by the fury about his decision to come home early from the D-Day commemorations, the prime minister contemplated a disappearing act. “He was in a really bad way at the weekend,” one confidant revealed. “He wasn’t going to quit, but he was mulling whether he needed to completely remove himself from the election and let other people do it.”
On Monday, however, Sunak had snapped out of his depression. One of those who was on his 2022 leadership team, when he lost to Liz Truss, said: “He’s like he was then. He was down for the first half of the campaign and then he decided he was just going to throw everything at it. His attitude is that he has to go out and swing for the fences.”
New polling by Charlesbye Communications shows that Cameron is the public’s preferred candidate to assume the leadership again after the election. He was on 25 per cent, with Farage on 20 per cent, one point ahead of Mordaunt, with the current bookmakers’ favourite Kemi Badenoch on 8 per cent. In the same survey, 2019 Tory voters put Mordaunt top on 27 per cent, three ahead of Cameron and four ahead of Farage, with Badenoch on 6 per cent.
There was a moment last weekend when one of Rishi Sunak’s closest allies thought he had thrown in the towel. Badly bruised by the fury about his decision to come home early from the D-Day commemorations, the prime minister contemplated a disappearing act. “He was in a really bad way at the weekend,” one confidant revealed. “He wasn’t going to quit, but he was mulling whether he needed to completely remove himself from the election and let other people do it.”
On Monday, however, Sunak had snapped out of his depression. One of those who was on his 2022 leadership team, when he lost to Liz Truss, said: “He’s like he was then. He was down for the first half of the campaign and then he decided he was just going to throw everything at it. His attitude is that he has to go out and swing for the fences.”
New polling by Charlesbye Communications shows that Cameron is the public’s preferred candidate to assume the leadership again after the election. He was on 25 per cent, with Farage on 20 per cent, one point ahead of Mordaunt, with the current bookmakers’ favourite Kemi Badenoch on 8 per cent. In the same survey, 2019 Tory voters put Mordaunt top on 27 per cent, three ahead of Cameron and four ahead of Farage, with Badenoch on 6 per cent.
There was a moment last weekend when one of Rishi Sunak’s closest allies thought he had thrown in the towel. Badly bruised by the fury about his decision to come home early from the D-Day commemorations, the prime minister contemplated a disappearing act. “He was in a really bad way at the weekend,” one confidant revealed. “He wasn’t going to quit, but he was mulling whether he needed to completely remove himself from the election and let other people do it.”
On Monday, however, Sunak had snapped out of his depression. One of those who was on his 2022 leadership team, when he lost to Liz Truss, said: “He’s like he was then. He was down for the first half of the campaign and then he decided he was just going to throw everything at it. His attitude is that he has to go out and swing for the fences.”
Why are people suggesting the Reform vote could "go home" to the Tories? Read the polling and the mood - most Reform voters actively want the Tories to lose. Thats the whole point in voting Reform.
I'm expecting three things to end up being true.
1. The Reform polling will, in part, prove to be a bit of a social media bubble and they won't turn out in the numbers suggested.
2. A lot of reluctant Tories who might currently be telling pollsters they won't vote, or don't know how they will vote, will in the end device it is their duty to vote, and that vote will be for the Tories, because it's always been for the Tories (and anyway, their conscience is clean, because the Tories are obviously going to lose in a landslide).
3. There will be quite a few voters who would definitely pick Farage over Sunak, but won't have either on their ballot paper. They'll have a choice between their local Conservative, for their local Conservative party, or some random weirdo candidate for Reform that they've never heard of before. They will vote for their local Conservative confident that Sunak will be far away in California and hoping that the good people of Clacton will elect Farage.
There was a moment last weekend when one of Rishi Sunak’s closest allies thought he had thrown in the towel. Badly bruised by the fury about his decision to come home early from the D-Day commemorations, the prime minister contemplated a disappearing act. “He was in a really bad way at the weekend,” one confidant revealed. “He wasn’t going to quit, but he was mulling whether he needed to completely remove himself from the election and let other people do it.”
On Monday, however, Sunak had snapped out of his depression. One of those who was on his 2022 leadership team, when he lost to Liz Truss, said: “He’s like he was then. He was down for the first half of the campaign and then he decided he was just going to throw everything at it. His attitude is that he has to go out and swing for the fences.”
New polling by Charlesbye Communications shows that Cameron is the public’s preferred candidate to assume the leadership again after the election. He was on 25 per cent, with Farage on 20 per cent, one point ahead of Mordaunt, with the current bookmakers’ favourite Kemi Badenoch on 8 per cent. In the same survey, 2019 Tory voters put Mordaunt top on 27 per cent, three ahead of Cameron and four ahead of Farage, with Badenoch on 6 per cent.
New polling by Charlesbye Communications shows that Cameron is the public’s preferred candidate to assume the leadership again after the election. He was on 25 per cent, with Farage on 20 per cent, one point ahead of Mordaunt, with the current bookmakers’ favourite Kemi Badenoch on 8 per cent. In the same survey, 2019 Tory voters put Mordaunt top on 27 per cent, three ahead of Cameron and four ahead of Farage, with Badenoch on 6 per cent.
There was a moment last weekend when one of Rishi Sunak’s closest allies thought he had thrown in the towel. Badly bruised by the fury about his decision to come home early from the D-Day commemorations, the prime minister contemplated a disappearing act. “He was in a really bad way at the weekend,” one confidant revealed. “He wasn’t going to quit, but he was mulling whether he needed to completely remove himself from the election and let other people do it.”
On Monday, however, Sunak had snapped out of his depression. One of those who was on his 2022 leadership team, when he lost to Liz Truss, said: “He’s like he was then. He was down for the first half of the campaign and then he decided he was just going to throw everything at it. His attitude is that he has to go out and swing for the fences.”
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Tories - their freepost is dropping. Addressed to household not voter. No other activity that we are aware of
SNP - no money but plenty of bodies. Extensively doorknocking.
Labour - nothing at all
Reform - nothing at all
LibDem - selected doorknocking. We're targeting key wards rather than the whole constituency. Targets will get quite a lot of stuff through the letterbox. Plus a targeted Facebook ad campaign which will be pretty intensive in the remaining weeks
As for the SNP, we're getting that much of their vote is softer than usual. A lot of upset about the state of public services. The odd mention of corruption. Frequent mentions of arrogance and being taken for granted...
Farage gets the right back to 30-35% if he led a united Tory and Reform party under FPTP but that is it. He also needs to win over 2019 Conservatives now voting Labour or LD and avoid any One Nation Tories going LD if he became leader of their party
Shouldn't have ducked out in 2019.
And then quietly depart the stage after July 5th.
And he didn't leave early as far as I know !!!
Much more private school and Oxbridge and the City or law or SPAD background and also it may be acceptable to even have a Tory MP to dinner again at Hampstead or Kensington and Chelsea or North Oxford dinner parties or one of TSE's candlelit suppers without having to worry about them being a working class by background hard Brexiteer from north of Watford. However the hosts still wouldn't be seen dead inviting a Reform MP or candidate to one of their posh dinner parties
1. The trend is your friend. Reform/LibDems up. Lab/Con down
2. Look for sample dates/events
3. Full tactical voting trend yet to play out
4. No constituency polling yet.
5. Give a point or two split appears Centre Left/Left 60% Centre Right/ Right 40%
6. Electoral history is your guide not a certainty.
7. Your local knowledge is valuable.
That said my feel for the final GB result is %/seats
Lab 40% .. 480
Con 20% .. 60
Ref 17% .. 3
LD 15% .. 69
Gr 4% .. 2
SNP 3% .. 11
PC 2% ... 4
Others .. 3
Hence he needs to reverse takeover the Conservatives, ie merge with them as the smaller party but take them over ideologically. I suspect it would see a split with the one nation torys defecting to the Libdems.
Gentle rise for Reform/LDs
Plucking numbers out of my Cornish butt I expect these trends to continue but not dramatically. So, barring black swans, here’s my mid campaign guess at a final share at the GE
Labour: 38
Con: 21
Ref: 16
LD: 14
Green: 4
SNP: 3
Baxtered, that gives:
Labour: 442
Con: 95
Ref: 3
LD: 65
SNP: 21
That doesn’t look too far from a likely reality
Essex Man going Reform?
Plus- once the swing goes proportional, big majorities are much easier to overcome.
Start 9
11 overs a side match.
Meanwhile, back in reality ...
There was a moment last weekend when one of Rishi Sunak’s closest allies thought he had thrown in the towel. Badly bruised by the fury about his decision to come home early from the D-Day commemorations, the prime minister contemplated a disappearing act. “He was in a really bad way at the weekend,” one confidant revealed. “He wasn’t going to quit, but he was mulling whether he needed to completely remove himself from the election and let other people do it.”
On Monday, however, Sunak had snapped out of his depression. One of those who was on his 2022 leadership team, when he lost to Liz Truss, said: “He’s like he was then. He was down for the first half of the campaign and then he decided he was just going to throw everything at it. His attitude is that he has to go out and swing for the fences.”
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/project-fear-keir-rishi-sunaks-last-roll-of-the-dice-z2pxl00w3
It’s also wrong. Savanta was the same 12th-14th timeframe.
But picking and choosing a poll which most fits your preconceived idea is a fool’s game, especially for those of us betting on outcomes.
Nothing necessarily wrong with that but they aren't loyal Tories.
To be a loyal Tory one has to be voting for Rishi now and also to have voted for Boris in 2019, to have voted for Major in 1997 as well as in 1992, for Hague in 2001 as well as Cameron in 2010
If they were aiming to do things the way a normal party does things then Farage would have been hard at work since Johnson was given the heave, and they'd probably have made a start on building up councillors.
Straight out of a spoof.
Tories 32%.
Reform 6%
The uncertainty now is just as to whether the Tories get a very bad result, or a calamitous result where they fall behind another party on vote share and/or seats.
What we have definitely not seen is any 'swingback' or Tory recovery in any polls. It's just that different pollsters put their situation at varying levels of desperate.
18 days of campaigning for that to change. Maybe Reform momentum will fade and they'll bounce off their current lows, but the recovery up to 30% now seems implausible.
He is no good at swinging for fences. Boring competence is what he could - should - have offered.
Unfortunately after all the epic cock-ups he's made nobody will believe him if he offers it and it probably wouldn't be enough anyway.
He’s the only politician with the charisma to lead the Conservatives, and young people love him etc. etc.
Just the usual utter bollocks you spout on here hour after hour.
Ross vs Logan? I think Logan. Ross is deeply unpopular even amongst his own people - they leaked the "we think his expenses are dodgy" story last weekend and provided quotes to the newspaper...
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/14/we-won-the-argument-but-i-regret-we-didnt-convert-that-into-a-majority-for-change
The final debate one on one with Starmer with no Farage a week before polling day is Rishi's chance to make his final case to undecideds
And when the Tories are down to 90 MPs and the choice is Steve Barclay or Suella Braverman suddenly Farage will look really appealing
What it does say, though, is there's a huge number of voters whose #1 priority now is immigration. Because, ultimately, that is what a vote for Farage is - it's a "tick this box if you think immigration is too high".
Both Labour and the Conservatives could shoot the Faragist fox tomorrow by providing concrete pledges on how to bring immigration down to sustainable levels, and to build infrastructure to cope with the influx we have now.
You are clueless when it comes to political judgement.
Poll cherrypicking is another worrying development. A veteran like @Leon really ought to know better.
They came out going all Reform-y with National Service, then the manifesto was totally the opposite, no red meat for natural Tory voter.
Nothing makes any sense. And these are the people who called in the GE in the first place.
They miss the point that the baseline Reform voter’s major grievance is that ITV cancelled Heartbeat, and if services worked and immigration “felt” under control, they would go back to that.
They also fail to see that Farage, like Boris, makes many people smile and fell good about themselves in a way few other current politicians do. Ken Clarke had it. Livingstone had it. It’s unevenly distributed.
https://www.oddschecker.com/insight/politics/20240604-general-election-odds-which-seats-are-the-reform-party-most-likely-to-win
I suggest you save your pennies. He’s highly likely to win that seat
New polling by Charlesbye Communications shows that Cameron is the public’s preferred candidate to assume the leadership again after the election. He was on 25 per cent, with Farage on 20 per cent, one point ahead of Mordaunt, with the current bookmakers’ favourite Kemi Badenoch on 8 per cent. In the same survey, 2019 Tory voters put Mordaunt top on 27 per cent, three ahead of Cameron and four ahead of Farage, with Badenoch on 6 per cent.
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/project-fear-keir-rishi-sunaks-last-roll-of-the-dice-z2pxl00w3
The "expenses story" btw went nowhere - Ross was exonerated by the parliamentary authorities despite Swinney's harrumphing.
They should have said: he’s gone Bazball
At least use a British reference rather than an Americanism no one understands. They are so CRINGE
1. The Reform polling will, in part, prove to be a bit of a social media bubble and they won't turn out in the numbers suggested.
2. A lot of reluctant Tories who might currently be telling pollsters they won't vote, or don't know how they will vote, will in the end device it is their duty to vote, and that vote will be for the Tories, because it's always been for the Tories (and anyway, their conscience is clean, because the Tories are obviously going to lose in a landslide).
3. There will be quite a few voters who would definitely pick Farage over Sunak, but won't have either on their ballot paper. They'll have a choice between their local Conservative, for their local Conservative party, or some random weirdo candidate for Reform that they've never heard of before. They will vote for their local Conservative confident that Sunak will be far away in California and hoping that the good people of Clacton will elect Farage.
For most pollsters their political polling accounts for less than 1% of their revenue.
Oddly it is on their political polling most pollsters get judged on.