Unite the right – politicalbetting.com

Heathener said:

MisterBedfordshire said:

Leon said:

Carnyx said:

Leon said:

Farooq said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Farooq said:

Leon said:

Farooq said:

Leon said:

Tres said:

kyf_100 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Nigelb said:

Starmer rules out CGT on primary residences for the duration of the next parliament.

But not CGT from other avenues.

Indeed. It's rather obvious at this point they are coming for capital gains in a big way. Canada did similar earlier this year, and is already seeing capital flight.

Fpt my story is fairly simple, I used to be on a high income, paying 40% on that and investing about half my net PAYE pay. Over the last decade I've accumulated seven figures in unrealised gains.

Let's assume 1,000,000 exactly for a quick calculation. At current rates that's 200k tax. Which is doable. At 40% that becomes 400k in tax. Which to avoid, you have to leave the UK for 5 years after making the disposal (preferably in a 0% jurisdiction such as Dubai.)

So the choice is to pay HMRC 400k, or spend, say, 200k on a nice 5 year holiday backpacking round the far east, and still being up 200k more than if remaining in the UK. From a personal perspective it really is a no brainer and I imagine most would be exploring the same options I currently am.

Capital is mobile, and tbh I'd rather pay a reasonable amount. Cgt at 40%+ would be one of the most punitive tax regimes in the world and a lot of people with more than a million or two in gains - think successful entrepreneurs cashing out of their businesses - will be making the same calculation.

but most people have no capital gains to tax. It's like the parent's crying about VAT on private school, not enough of you to matter.

The top 1% of Britons in income pay 30% of the tax. I believe. Be very careful what you wish for

How much of the income do they get?

It doesn’t matter if half of them fuck off. Suddenly you’ve got an ENORMOUS hole in already stretched HMG finances, and Britain is bankrupt. Bravo

I tired of rich people holding the country hostage. I say, tax them more. I'm willing to bet most of them stay put. Most people have friends and family and lives here. Uprooting your life is a huge time and emotional cost. It most cases it won't be worth the trouble. I say, bring it on.

250k UK citizens have moved to Dubai in the last few years. Its happening already.

Given that UK citizens emigrating is about 100k per year in total, you probably need to qualify "in the last few years".

Er, in the last year 532,000 people emigrated from the UK

ONS:

“1.2 million people migrated into the UK and 532,000 people emigrated from it, leaving a net migration figure of 685,000. This represents the balance of long-term migrants moving in and out of the country.”

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn06077/

Farroq said UK citizens.

Farooq said:

Carnyx said:

Leon said:

Farooq said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Farooq said:

Leon said:

Farooq said:

Leon said:

Tres said:

kyf_100 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Nigelb said:

Starmer rules out CGT on primary residences for the duration of the next parliament.

But not CGT from other avenues.

Indeed. It's rather obvious at this point they are coming for capital gains in a big way. Canada did similar earlier this year, and is already seeing capital flight.

Fpt my story is fairly simple, I used to be on a high income, paying 40% on that and investing about half my net PAYE pay. Over the last decade I've accumulated seven figures in unrealised gains.

Let's assume 1,000,000 exactly for a quick calculation. At current rates that's 200k tax. Which is doable. At 40% that becomes 400k in tax. Which to avoid, you have to leave the UK for 5 years after making the disposal (preferably in a 0% jurisdiction such as Dubai.)

So the choice is to pay HMRC 400k, or spend, say, 200k on a nice 5 year holiday backpacking round the far east, and still being up 200k more than if remaining in the UK. From a personal perspective it really is a no brainer and I imagine most would be exploring the same options I currently am.

Capital is mobile, and tbh I'd rather pay a reasonable amount. Cgt at 40%+ would be one of the most punitive tax regimes in the world and a lot of people with more than a million or two in gains - think successful entrepreneurs cashing out of their businesses - will be making the same calculation.

but most people have no capital gains to tax. It's like the parent's crying about VAT on private school, not enough of you to matter.

The top 1% of Britons in income pay 30% of the tax. I believe. Be very careful what you wish for

How much of the income do they get?

It doesn’t matter if half of them fuck off. Suddenly you’ve got an ENORMOUS hole in already stretched HMG finances, and Britain is bankrupt. Bravo

I tired of rich people holding the country hostage. I say, tax them more. I'm willing to bet most of them stay put. Most people have friends and family and lives here. Uprooting your life is a huge time and emotional cost. It most cases it won't be worth the trouble. I say, bring it on.

250k UK citizens have moved to Dubai in the last few years. Its happening already.

Given that UK citizens emigrating is about 100k per year in total, you probably need to qualify "in the last few years".

Er, in the last year 532,000 people emigrated from the UK

ONS:

“1.2 million people migrated into the UK and 532,000 people emigrated from it, leaving a net migration figure of 685,000. This represents the balance of long-term migrants moving in and out of the country.”

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn06077/

Farroq said UK citizens.

Exactly, and then because that's what FrancisUrquhart lead with. Just sticking to the terms of the conversation is apparently enough to make Leon dizzy and fall over.

I don’t say you were wrong I was pointing out the absurdly narrow focus of your argument. On top of 100,000 uk emigrants 400,000 others left. Who were they? How many were long term residents who actually paid a lot of tax? And how many of the trillions of incomers are going to be a net drain on the treasury, instead?

I fear the details won’t be good for UK PLC

The tax system is very harsh on writers who get big sums then very little for potentially years.

James Herriot's sons autobiography of him recounts how during the Labour 74-79 era he handed the vast majority of his book earnings to the treasury and attempted to contact the only other well earning writer who was still in the country only to find that he too had bolted.

It was iirc George Osborne who put a stop to authors being able to spread their earnings over several years

p.s. be sure to pass this back to your masters in CCHQ

MisterBedfordshire said:

Foxy said:

MisterBedfordshire said:

Its not the super rich fleeing they want to worry about it is the middle giving up.

Personally I am part time now, which keeps me below £50k. Before I was stuffing huge amounts into Pension additional voluntary contributions. Don't mind paying 28% but damned if I will pay 70% marginal rate in tax and child benefit withrawals. So by trying to get 70% off me instead of 28% they get 0%.

There are similar things happening at £100k with childcare/personal allowance cliff.

The last two years have seen inflation matching benefit rises of 10% and 8% with tax allowances. on those working (and getting much lower pay rises) to pay for it.

So people are changing sides. A huge amount of those claiming working age sickness benefits are for conditions with a subjective diagnosis (backache/mental health condition). Only 16% were turned down.

Do I blame them. No. If I had no qualifications and rented and the choice was go on the sick, get my rent paid, get a stipend, get cost of living payments, get 75% of council tax paid, pay social utility rates, get a free mobility car...

...or get an unpleasant McJob that involved being treated poorly and unsocial night shifts and having 25% more cash at the end of it if I was lucky, I'm not sure I wouldn't do the same (that is before taking into account cash in hand receipts for the former).

So tax and benefit rises are already turning net contributors into net receivers. More of the same from Labour is the path to Bankruptcy

Yes, the Labour government has really set up some bad incentives these last 14 years, haven't they? We should chuck them out and give Sunaks Conservatives a try.

It is precisely because the Conservatives have behaved like the stereotypical Labour government that they like to portray to scare voters into voting for them that they are behind Fargles lot in the polls.

If Labour decide to increase tax and benefits further and don't implement painful reform, they will face a similar fate at the 2029 election.

Heathener said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Yet another match cancelled in the T20 WC. What an omnishambles.

It has been a thoroughly peculiar tournament so far, hasn’t it?

Heathener said:

MisterBedfordshire said:

Leon said:

Carnyx said:

Leon said:

Farooq said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Farooq said:

Leon said:

Farooq said:

Leon said:

Tres said:

kyf_100 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Nigelb said:

Starmer rules out CGT on primary residences for the duration of the next parliament.

But not CGT from other avenues.

Indeed. It's rather obvious at this point they are coming for capital gains in a big way. Canada did similar earlier this year, and is already seeing capital flight.

Fpt my story is fairly simple, I used to be on a high income, paying 40% on that and investing about half my net PAYE pay. Over the last decade I've accumulated seven figures in unrealised gains.

Let's assume 1,000,000 exactly for a quick calculation. At current rates that's 200k tax. Which is doable. At 40% that becomes 400k in tax. Which to avoid, you have to leave the UK for 5 years after making the disposal (preferably in a 0% jurisdiction such as Dubai.)

So the choice is to pay HMRC 400k, or spend, say, 200k on a nice 5 year holiday backpacking round the far east, and still being up 200k more than if remaining in the UK. From a personal perspective it really is a no brainer and I imagine most would be exploring the same options I currently am.

Capital is mobile, and tbh I'd rather pay a reasonable amount. Cgt at 40%+ would be one of the most punitive tax regimes in the world and a lot of people with more than a million or two in gains - think successful entrepreneurs cashing out of their businesses - will be making the same calculation.

but most people have no capital gains to tax. It's like the parent's crying about VAT on private school, not enough of you to matter.

The top 1% of Britons in income pay 30% of the tax. I believe. Be very careful what you wish for

How much of the income do they get?

It doesn’t matter if half of them fuck off. Suddenly you’ve got an ENORMOUS hole in already stretched HMG finances, and Britain is bankrupt. Bravo

I tired of rich people holding the country hostage. I say, tax them more. I'm willing to bet most of them stay put. Most people have friends and family and lives here. Uprooting your life is a huge time and emotional cost. It most cases it won't be worth the trouble. I say, bring it on.

250k UK citizens have moved to Dubai in the last few years. Its happening already.

Given that UK citizens emigrating is about 100k per year in total, you probably need to qualify "in the last few years".

Er, in the last year 532,000 people emigrated from the UK

ONS:

“1.2 million people migrated into the UK and 532,000 people emigrated from it, leaving a net migration figure of 685,000. This represents the balance of long-term migrants moving in and out of the country.”

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn06077/

Farroq said UK citizens.

Farooq said:

Carnyx said:

Leon said:

Farooq said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Farooq said:

Leon said:

Farooq said:

Leon said:

Tres said:

kyf_100 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Nigelb said:

Starmer rules out CGT on primary residences for the duration of the next parliament.

But not CGT from other avenues.

Indeed. It's rather obvious at this point they are coming for capital gains in a big way. Canada did similar earlier this year, and is already seeing capital flight.

Fpt my story is fairly simple, I used to be on a high income, paying 40% on that and investing about half my net PAYE pay. Over the last decade I've accumulated seven figures in unrealised gains.

Let's assume 1,000,000 exactly for a quick calculation. At current rates that's 200k tax. Which is doable. At 40% that becomes 400k in tax. Which to avoid, you have to leave the UK for 5 years after making the disposal (preferably in a 0% jurisdiction such as Dubai.)

So the choice is to pay HMRC 400k, or spend, say, 200k on a nice 5 year holiday backpacking round the far east, and still being up 200k more than if remaining in the UK. From a personal perspective it really is a no brainer and I imagine most would be exploring the same options I currently am.

Capital is mobile, and tbh I'd rather pay a reasonable amount. Cgt at 40%+ would be one of the most punitive tax regimes in the world and a lot of people with more than a million or two in gains - think successful entrepreneurs cashing out of their businesses - will be making the same calculation.

but most people have no capital gains to tax. It's like the parent's crying about VAT on private school, not enough of you to matter.

The top 1% of Britons in income pay 30% of the tax. I believe. Be very careful what you wish for

How much of the income do they get?

It doesn’t matter if half of them fuck off. Suddenly you’ve got an ENORMOUS hole in already stretched HMG finances, and Britain is bankrupt. Bravo

I tired of rich people holding the country hostage. I say, tax them more. I'm willing to bet most of them stay put. Most people have friends and family and lives here. Uprooting your life is a huge time and emotional cost. It most cases it won't be worth the trouble. I say, bring it on.

250k UK citizens have moved to Dubai in the last few years. Its happening already.

Given that UK citizens emigrating is about 100k per year in total, you probably need to qualify "in the last few years".

Er, in the last year 532,000 people emigrated from the UK

ONS:

“1.2 million people migrated into the UK and 532,000 people emigrated from it, leaving a net migration figure of 685,000. This represents the balance of long-term migrants moving in and out of the country.”

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn06077/

Farroq said UK citizens.

Exactly, and then because that's what FrancisUrquhart lead with. Just sticking to the terms of the conversation is apparently enough to make Leon dizzy and fall over.

I don’t say you were wrong I was pointing out the absurdly narrow focus of your argument. On top of 100,000 uk emigrants 400,000 others left. Who were they? How many were long term residents who actually paid a lot of tax? And how many of the trillions of incomers are going to be a net drain on the treasury, instead?

I fear the details won’t be good for UK PLC

The tax system is very harsh on writers who get big sums then very little for potentially years.

James Herriot's sons autobiography of him recounts how during the Labour 74-79 era he handed the vast majority of his book earnings to the treasury and attempted to contact the only other well earning writer who was still in the country only to find that he too had bolted.

It was iirc George Osborne who put a stop to authors being able to spread their earnings over several years

p.s. be sure to pass this back to your masters in CCHQ

Heathener said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Yet another match cancelled in the T20 WC. What an omnishambles.

It has been a thoroughly peculiar tournament so far, hasn’t it?

Gallowgate said:

Is there anything more bellend-ish than boasting about your income?

Gallowgate said:

Is there anything more bellend-ish than boasting about your income?

Gallowgate said:

Is there anything more bellend-ish than boasting about your income?

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

Nigelb said:

Leon said:

MightyAlex said:

kyf_100 said:

eek said:

kyf_100 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Nigelb said:

Starmer rules out CGT on primary residences for the duration of the next parliament.

But not CGT from other avenues.

Indeed. It's rather obvious at this point they are coming for capital gains in a big way. Canada did similar earlier this year, and is already seeing capital flight.

Fpt my story is fairly simple, I used to be on a high income, paying 40% on that and investing about half my net PAYE pay. Over the last decade I've accumulated seven figures in unrealised gains.

Let's assume 1,000,000 exactly for a quick calculation. At current rates that's 200k tax. Which is doable. At 40% that becomes 400k in tax. Which to avoid, you have to leave the UK for 5 years after making the disposal (preferably in a 0% jurisdiction such as Dubai.)

So the choice is to pay HMRC 400k, or spend, say, 200k on a nice 5 year holiday backpacking round the far east, and still being up 200k more than if remaining in the UK. From a personal perspective it really is a no brainer and I imagine most would be exploring the same options I currently am.

Capital is mobile, and tbh I'd rather pay a reasonable amount. Cgt at 40%+ would be one of the most punitive tax regimes in the world and a lot of people with more than a million or two in gains - think successful entrepreneurs cashing out of their businesses - will be making the same calculation.

Except there are lifetime allowances for businessmen selling their business. Granted the £1m at 10% isn’t the £10m it used to be but it’s better than nothing

Also while you can up sticks it’s a lot harder for other people

What makes you think that allowance will survive the next budget?

The thing that gets me is a 40% cgt hits people like me who already paid 40% on our work incomes, invested the rest, and did well on the markets.

When what you really want to be going for is the "born with millions and living off the family trust fund" crowd who are far wealthier than I will ever be.

I worked 12+ hours days at my corporate drone job for years, spent little and invested my money wisely. A 1%'er I am most certainly not.

As I said in the previous thread, it's the ladder curve in action. Tax my investments at 20% and you get a few hundred thousand for UK plc's coffers, tax them at 40% and it's in my best interest to get out entirely.

And at the end of the day, we are all governed by rational self interest.

Go away then. Go be morose in Dubai or the UAE or Saudi or Monaco. You've done your bit and taken your share. Hand your passport in and live a new unmoored life as a tax exile unencumbered by social norms. You could even meet up with our resident shit and chat about the wrongs of CGT.

Just don't come back if you need a new hip or your liver stops working or a Gulf sheikh acting in rational self interest has confiscated your cash.

I’ve probably paid more in tax to the UK than you’ve earned in total

So I’ll do what I like, within the law

By your own account you're already something of a tax exile ?

But agreed, it's rather counterproductive to berate you for that.

Equally, if you do become a permanent exile, your ongoing stake in our politics (not that it will, or should bother you) is seriously diminished.

The last point is true to an extent, I can actually feel
myself caring less about the UK and about UK politics. Its a definite thing

However I will still care quite a lot because I have lots of friends and family in the UK - most of all my elder daughter

I want what’s best for them so I will still be emotionally invested

Your predicament reminds me of the White Russians when Lenin took over.

A lot of them came here - to Odessa - funnily enough. Then they moved on

The life of an exile can often be sad, morose, lonely, drunken. That’s why I’ve been experimenting with it for the last year or two. Spending more than 50% of my time abroad

Turns out I rather like it, sometimes I absolutely love it. But I only like it because I can keep moving. Seeing things and meeting people. I would become that sad lonely drunk if I was marooned on Phuket for 12 months out of 12

So I intend to keep moving and only keep the lightest foothold in some useful hub that I can call a kind of home for the few weeks/months I am there

It’s not a life for everyone or even most people. True nomadism. Most people like a nest

wooliedyed said:

Polling due tonight looks like at least
Savanta for the Sunday Telegraph teased with 'let's just say there's been some movement' (was Reforms lowest and one of the Tories and Labour better ones last time)
Should be a Deltapoll in the Mail, huge Lab lead last time
Opinium in the Observer will be their first to constituency prompt in this GE

williamglenn said:

Heathener said:

MisterBedfordshire said:

TimS said:

MisterBedfordshire said:

Its not the super rich fleeing they want to worry about it is the middle giving up.

Personally I am part time now, which keeps me below £50k. Before I was stuffing huge amounts into Pension additional voluntary contributions. Don't mind paying 28% but damned if I will pay 70% marginal rate in tax and child benefit withrawals. So by trying to get 70% off me instead of 28% they get 0%.

There are similar things happening at £100k with childcare/personal allowance cliff.

The last two years have seen inflation matching benefit rises of 10% and 8% with tax allowances. on those working (and getting much lower pay rises) to pay for it.

So people are changing sides. A huge amount of those claiming working age sickness benefits are for conditions with a subjective diagnosis (backache/mental health condition). Only 16% were turned down.

Do I blame them. No. If I had no qualifications and rented and the choice was go on the sick, get my rent paid, get a stipend, get cost of living payments, get 75% of council tax paid, pay social utility rates, get a free mobility car...

...or get an unpleasant McJob that involved being treated poorly and unsocial night shifts and having 25% more cash at the end of it if I was lucky, I'm not sure I wouldn't do the same (that is before taking into account cash in hand receipts for the former).

So tax and benefit rises are already turning net contributors into net receivers. More of the same from Labour is the path to Bankruptcy

Latest in the familiar genre of “the Tories have made things shit. So you’d better not vote Labour because they might ruin it”.

Quite the opposite. I am explaining why they are going to get the drubbing of their lives and are behind Farages lot.

However, if Labour double down on it and increase benefits and taxes further, they will go the same way in 2029. They are going to have tu implement almost Dickensian reform if they want a second term.

As I have been at pains to point out, historically if Labour do achieve a 150+ seat majority they won’t be leaving office for at least 9 years, or 10 if they go full two terms.

The right can try to console itself over what is happening but it’s flight reaction from the reality of the present situation.

Historical precedents won't apply because of the way the parties are realigning. It doesn't take much of a swing to go from this to NOM, and then it doesn't take much more movement before Labour are going the same way as the Tories and the Lib Dems and Reform or its successor dominate the political map.

williamglenn said:

If the current trends continue, a result like this isn't out of the question, however it would only take a swing of a further 2% to Reform to wipe out the Labour majority entirely so it would be very volatile.

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

Nigelb said:

Leon said:

MightyAlex said:

kyf_100 said:

eek said:

kyf_100 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Nigelb said:

Starmer rules out CGT on primary residences for the duration of the next parliament.

But not CGT from other avenues.

Indeed. It's rather obvious at this point they are coming for capital gains in a big way. Canada did similar earlier this year, and is already seeing capital flight.

Fpt my story is fairly simple, I used to be on a high income, paying 40% on that and investing about half my net PAYE pay. Over the last decade I've accumulated seven figures in unrealised gains.

Let's assume 1,000,000 exactly for a quick calculation. At current rates that's 200k tax. Which is doable. At 40% that becomes 400k in tax. Which to avoid, you have to leave the UK for 5 years after making the disposal (preferably in a 0% jurisdiction such as Dubai.)

So the choice is to pay HMRC 400k, or spend, say, 200k on a nice 5 year holiday backpacking round the far east, and still being up 200k more than if remaining in the UK. From a personal perspective it really is a no brainer and I imagine most would be exploring the same options I currently am.

Capital is mobile, and tbh I'd rather pay a reasonable amount. Cgt at 40%+ would be one of the most punitive tax regimes in the world and a lot of people with more than a million or two in gains - think successful entrepreneurs cashing out of their businesses - will be making the same calculation.

Except there are lifetime allowances for businessmen selling their business. Granted the £1m at 10% isn’t the £10m it used to be but it’s better than nothing

Also while you can up sticks it’s a lot harder for other people

What makes you think that allowance will survive the next budget?

The thing that gets me is a 40% cgt hits people like me who already paid 40% on our work incomes, invested the rest, and did well on the markets.

When what you really want to be going for is the "born with millions and living off the family trust fund" crowd who are far wealthier than I will ever be.

I worked 12+ hours days at my corporate drone job for years, spent little and invested my money wisely. A 1%'er I am most certainly not.

As I said in the previous thread, it's the ladder curve in action. Tax my investments at 20% and you get a few hundred thousand for UK plc's coffers, tax them at 40% and it's in my best interest to get out entirely.

And at the end of the day, we are all governed by rational self interest.

Go away then. Go be morose in Dubai or the UAE or Saudi or Monaco. You've done your bit and taken your share. Hand your passport in and live a new unmoored life as a tax exile unencumbered by social norms. You could even meet up with our resident shit and chat about the wrongs of CGT.

Just don't come back if you need a new hip or your liver stops working or a Gulf sheikh acting in rational self interest has confiscated your cash.

I’ve probably paid more in tax to the UK than you’ve earned in total

So I’ll do what I like, within the law

By your own account you're already something of a tax exile ?

But agreed, it's rather counterproductive to berate you for that.

Equally, if you do become a permanent exile, your ongoing stake in our politics (not that it will, or should bother you) is seriously diminished.

The last point is true to an extent, I can actually feel
myself caring less about the UK and about UK politics. Its a definite thing

However I will still care quite a lot because I have lots of friends and family in the UK - most of all my elder daughter

I want what’s best for them so I will still be emotionally invested

Your predicament reminds me of the White Russians when Lenin took over.

A lot of them came here - to Odessa - funnily enough. Then they moved on

The life of an exile can often be sad, morose, lonely, drunken. That’s why I’ve been experimenting with it for the last year or two. Spending more than 50% of my time abroad

Turns out I rather like it, sometimes I absolutely love it. But I only like it because I can keep moving. Seeing things and meeting people. I would become that sad lonely drunk if I was marooned on Phuket for 12 months out of 12

So I intend to keep moving and only keep the lightest foothold in some useful hub that I can call a kind of home for the few weeks/months I am there

It’s not a life for everyone or even most people. True nomadism. Most people like a nest

Yes, choose the life you want to the extent you are able to do so. Everyone does that. But not everyone alternates between romanticising their choice and making out they're being forced into it. That seems to be a you thing.

MisterBedfordshire said:

Heathener said:

MisterBedfordshire said:

TimS said:

MisterBedfordshire said:

Its not the super rich fleeing they want to worry about it is the middle giving up.

Personally I am part time now, which keeps me below £50k. Before I was stuffing huge amounts into Pension additional voluntary contributions. Don't mind paying 28% but damned if I will pay 70% marginal rate in tax and child benefit withrawals. So by trying to get 70% off me instead of 28% they get 0%.

There are similar things happening at £100k with childcare/personal allowance cliff.

The last two years have seen inflation matching benefit rises of 10% and 8% with tax allowances. on those working (and getting much lower pay rises) to pay for it.

So people are changing sides. A huge amount of those claiming working age sickness benefits are for conditions with a subjective diagnosis (backache/mental health condition). Only 16% were turned down.

Do I blame them. No. If I had no qualifications and rented and the choice was go on the sick, get my rent paid, get a stipend, get cost of living payments, get 75% of council tax paid, pay social utility rates, get a free mobility car...

...or get an unpleasant McJob that involved being treated poorly and unsocial night shifts and having 25% more cash at the end of it if I was lucky, I'm not sure I wouldn't do the same (that is before taking into account cash in hand receipts for the former).

So tax and benefit rises are already turning net contributors into net receivers. More of the same from Labour is the path to Bankruptcy

Latest in the familiar genre of “the Tories have made things shit. So you’d better not vote Labour because they might ruin it”.

Quite the opposite. I am explaining why they are going to get the drubbing of their lives and are behind Farages lot.

However, if Labour double down on it and increase benefits and taxes further, they will go the same way in 2029. They are going to have tu implement almost Dickensian reform if they want a second term.

As I have been at pains to point out, historically if Labour do achieve a 150+ seat majority they won’t be leaving office for at least 9 years, or 10 if they go full two terms.

The right can try to console itself over what is happening but it’s flight reaction from the reality of the present situation.

Really? Remember all the "Tory's will be in power for a generstion" stories after they got a majority of 80 in 2019 (equivalent of over 100 on current boundaries).

See also John Rentouls Independent article posted by someone else a few posts above.

TimS said:

Andy_JS said:

wooliedyed said:

Polling due tonight looks like at least
Savanta for the Sunday Telegraph teased with 'let's just say there's been some movement' (was Reforms lowest and one of the Tories and Labour better ones last time)
Should be a Deltapoll in the Mail, huge Lab lead last time
Opinium in the Observer will be their first to constituency prompt in this GE

No polls for 48 hours during an election campaign.

Imagine if there were no polls allowed between the dissolution of parliament and the exit poll. Or maybe just one, half way through. It would make election night much more exciting.

Next government should do that. Ban opinion polls during elections.

MisterBedfordshire said:

Thanks to those who said I am a CCHQ plant. It has made my day. I will inform one or two friends who will find it amusing.

I've been here on and off since roughly 2005 but have not posted since 2016 as I had too much going on in my life.

Having rejoined this morning, the weather has been rubbish and I have spent so much time reading the site I've remembered one why I stopped posting before lol, PB addiction.

TimS said:

Andy_JS said:

wooliedyed said:

Polling due tonight looks like at least
Savanta for the Sunday Telegraph teased with 'let's just say there's been some movement' (was Reforms lowest and one of the Tories and Labour better ones last time)
Should be a Deltapoll in the Mail, huge Lab lead last time
Opinium in the Observer will be their first to constituency prompt in this GE

No polls for 48 hours during an election campaign.

Imagine if there were no polls allowed between the dissolution of parliament and the exit poll. Or maybe just one, half way through. It would make election night much more exciting.

Next government should do that. Ban opinion polls during elections.

Leon said:

TimS said:

When Boris won a large majority in 2019 he was squatting like a toad over British politics and commencing a thousand year reign. If Starmer wins a similar majority this time he’ll be presiding over a castle built of sand.

Either pundits have learned from the last 5 years, or they are exhibiting their own unconscious biases about “the natural party of government” vs “the other party”.

Robert Peston is making the very same analysis however


“It is all very well for Starmer to set expectations relatively low for what a Labour government could achieve in the short term. But he is telling British people he represents “change”, which does not sound modest.

If in fact Starmer delivers more of the same, his apotheosis may be just as short as Johnson’s.”

https://x.com/peston/status/1801914360706564255?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

kyf_100 said:

pigeon said:

The better off have to be soaked, because someone has to pay for the upkeep of our increasingly elderly and decrepit population, and you're not going to get much more by squeezing and squeezing the wages of low and middle income earners until they scream for mercy. That said, you can understand the butt hurt being expressed by better off people who claim that higher taxes on their investments are simply punishment for working hard. That's not the intention of whatever tax rises or allowance reductions are likely coming after the election, even if it feels like it to them. We can't afford to give in to special pleading on the subject, but perhaps we can afford to give them a bit of space to vent rather than simply telling them to make sure that the door hits them full in the arse on the way out?

The bigger problem in all of this is that any revenue raising measures that do come will, ultimately, be insufficiently broad based and fail to raise enough cash to start to deal with all of our problems, because they are almost bound to ignore residential property. Crudely put, the Theresa May experience taught us that the only way to deal with the gigantic health and social care problem is to tax houses more and, simultaneously, you can't tax houses more because the population, especially the expensive to keep old people who also control most of the property wealth, will revolt if you try to do it. This problem seems, to me, to be fundamentally insoluble in a democratic system.

It's simply the laffer curve in action.

I was expecting to make disposals next year which would incur £300k-ish in cgt at 20%

Which is more tax than many will pay in their entire life, and I was quite happy to do it.

If as predicted that becomes 40-45% next year, I can bugger off on holiday for five years, spending fifty grand a year wibbling about and having fun not working. And _still_ have more money left over than if I had paid the UK cgt bill at 40%

Economics is simply rational choice theory. I want to pay tax and contribute to the UK economy and indeed I have paid more in tax than most people ever will.

I'm talking about being willing to pay 300k in tax next year. How much do some of the bedsit posters in here pay in tax, if they pay any at all? 10k a year? I'm prepared to pay 30 years of sad bedsit Farooq poster tax in a single year. And more again the year after. At 20%

At 40% it's worth my while becoming a listless grumpy gammony tax exile working on my tan in Pattaya. But I don't want that to happen. I want the government to tax me a sensible amount, and I want to pay a sensible amount.

Anyone else in this thread want to own up to being happy to pay 300k in tax next year?

No?

I hope some of the people in this thread telling me to eff off and pay nothing then, enjoy it when I actually eff off and pay nothing.

Well said

And then you’re accused of being “unpatriotic” by feckless losers who have probably been a net drain on HMRC all their wanky lives. Fuck em

The "patriot" ribbing is to you not him and it's because you make a massive deal of how Britain and British is in your very bones and makes your chest puff out with pride.

Leon said:

TimS said:

When Boris won a large majority in 2019 he was squatting like a toad over British politics and commencing a thousand year reign. If Starmer wins a similar majority this time he’ll be presiding over a castle built of sand.

Either pundits have learned from the last 5 years, or they are exhibiting their own unconscious biases about “the natural party of government” vs “the other party”.

Robert Peston is making the very same analysis however


“It is all very well for Starmer to set expectations relatively low for what a Labour government could achieve in the short term. But he is telling British people he represents “change”, which does not sound modest.

If in fact Starmer delivers more of the same, his apotheosis may be just as short as Johnson’s.”

https://x.com/peston/status/1801914360706564255?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

Leon said:

TimS said:

When Boris won a large majority in 2019 he was squatting like a toad over British politics and commencing a thousand year reign. If Starmer wins a similar majority this time he’ll be presiding over a castle built of sand.

Either pundits have learned from the last 5 years, or they are exhibiting their own unconscious biases about “the natural party of government” vs “the other party”.

Robert Peston is making the very same analysis however


“It is all very well for Starmer to set expectations relatively low for what a Labour government could achieve in the short term. But he is telling British people he represents “change”, which does not sound modest.

If in fact Starmer delivers more of the same, his apotheosis may be just as short as Johnson’s.”

https://x.com/peston/status/1801914360706564255?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

algarkirk said:

Leon said:

TimS said:

When Boris won a large majority in 2019 he was squatting like a toad over British politics and commencing a thousand year reign. If Starmer wins a similar majority this time he’ll be presiding over a castle built of sand.

Either pundits have learned from the last 5 years, or they are exhibiting their own unconscious biases about “the natural party of government” vs “the other party”.

Robert Peston is making the very same analysis however


“It is all very well for Starmer to set expectations relatively low for what a Labour government could achieve in the short term. But he is telling British people he represents “change”, which does not sound modest.

If in fact Starmer delivers more of the same, his apotheosis may be just as short as Johnson’s.”

https://x.com/peston/status/1801914360706564255?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

Rentoul and Peston have stunning levels of insight. None of this had ever occurred to anyone else at all.

The tax system is very harsh on writers who get big sums then very little for potentially years.

James Herriot's sons autobiography of him recounts how during the Labour 74-79 era he handed the vast majority of his book earnings to the treasury and attempted to contact the only other well earning writer who was still in the country only to find that he too had bolted.

Casino_Royale said:

Gallowgate said:

Is there anything more bellend-ish than boasting about your income?

Yes, the woodlice like @OllyT @Tres @murali_s and @Northern_Al crawling out from under their decomposing logs to cry class war over it, and express schadenfreude at anyone affected.

Sandpit said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Farooq said:

Leon said:

Farooq said:

Leon said:

Tres said:

kyf_100 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Nigelb said:

Starmer rules out CGT on primary residences for the duration of the next parliament.

But not CGT from other avenues.

Indeed. It's rather obvious at this point they are coming for capital gains in a big way. Canada did similar earlier this year, and is already seeing capital flight.

Fpt my story is fairly simple, I used to be on a high income, paying 40% on that and investing about half my net PAYE pay. Over the last decade I've accumulated seven figures in unrealised gains.

Let's assume 1,000,000 exactly for a quick calculation. At current rates that's 200k tax. Which is doable. At 40% that becomes 400k in tax. Which to avoid, you have to leave the UK for 5 years after making the disposal (preferably in a 0% jurisdiction such as Dubai.)

So the choice is to pay HMRC 400k, or spend, say, 200k on a nice 5 year holiday backpacking round the far east, and still being up 200k more than if remaining in the UK. From a personal perspective it really is a no brainer and I imagine most would be exploring the same options I currently am.

Capital is mobile, and tbh I'd rather pay a reasonable amount. Cgt at 40%+ would be one of the most punitive tax regimes in the world and a lot of people with more than a million or two in gains - think successful entrepreneurs cashing out of their businesses - will be making the same calculation.

but most people have no capital gains to tax. It's like the parent's crying about VAT on private school, not enough of you to matter.

The top 1% of Britons in income pay 30% of the tax. I believe. Be very careful what you wish for

How much of the income do they get?

It doesn’t matter if half of them fuck off. Suddenly you’ve got an ENORMOUS hole in already stretched HMG finances, and Britain is bankrupt. Bravo

I tired of rich people holding the country hostage. I say, tax them more. I'm willing to bet most of them stay put. Most people have friends and family and lives here. Uprooting your life is a huge time and emotional cost. It most cases it won't be worth the trouble. I say, bring it on.

250k UK citizens have moved to Dubai in the past decade and the numbers have been increasing year on year. These aren't poor people doing this, to go and work slave labour jobs in construction. Its happening already.

Its actually something that is not getting talked about during immigration debate. 1+ million people in, ~0.5 million out. Its record in, and record out. Who are these people, how skilled are they, why are they leaving? I think a good chunk will be students, but would be interesting to know the break down.

If I were to guess at what the Brits in Dubai are doing:

1. Entrepreneurs - people running their own businesses here.
2. Construction - mostly project managers
3. Estate agents
4. Teachers
5. Airlines - pilots and cabin crew, senior engineers
6. Senior salaried managers in local businesses - accountants, lawyers, IT pros etc.

Phil said:

Farooq said:

Carnyx said:

Leon said:

Farooq said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Farooq said:

Leon said:

Farooq said:

Leon said:

Tres said:

kyf_100 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Nigelb said:

Starmer rules out CGT on primary residences for the duration of the next parliament.

But not CGT from other avenues.

Indeed. It's rather obvious at this point they are coming for capital gains in a big way. Canada did similar earlier this year, and is already seeing capital flight.

Fpt my story is fairly simple, I used to be on a high income, paying 40% on that and investing about half my net PAYE pay. Over the last decade I've accumulated seven figures in unrealised gains.

Let's assume 1,000,000 exactly for a quick calculation. At current rates that's 200k tax. Which is doable. At 40% that becomes 400k in tax. Which to avoid, you have to leave the UK for 5 years after making the disposal (preferably in a 0% jurisdiction such as Dubai.)

So the choice is to pay HMRC 400k, or spend, say, 200k on a nice 5 year holiday backpacking round the far east, and still being up 200k more than if remaining in the UK. From a personal perspective it really is a no brainer and I imagine most would be exploring the same options I currently am.

Capital is mobile, and tbh I'd rather pay a reasonable amount. Cgt at 40%+ would be one of the most punitive tax regimes in the world and a lot of people with more than a million or two in gains - think successful entrepreneurs cashing out of their businesses - will be making the same calculation.

but most people have no capital gains to tax. It's like the parent's crying about VAT on private school, not enough of you to matter.

The top 1% of Britons in income pay 30% of the tax. I believe. Be very careful what you wish for

How much of the income do they get?

It doesn’t matter if half of them fuck off. Suddenly you’ve got an ENORMOUS hole in already stretched HMG finances, and Britain is bankrupt. Bravo

I tired of rich people holding the country hostage. I say, tax them more. I'm willing to bet most of them stay put. Most people have friends and family and lives here. Uprooting your life is a huge time and emotional cost. It most cases it won't be worth the trouble. I say, bring it on.

250k UK citizens have moved to Dubai in the last few years. Its happening already.

Given that UK citizens emigrating is about 100k per year in total, you probably need to qualify "in the last few years".

Er, in the last year 532,000 people emigrated from the UK

ONS:

“1.2 million people migrated into the UK and 532,000 people emigrated from it, leaving a net migration figure of 685,000. This represents the balance of long-term migrants moving in and out of the country.”

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn06077/

Farroq said UK citizens.

Exactly, and then because that's what FrancisUrquhart lead with. Just sticking to the terms of the conversation is apparently enough to make Leon dizzy and fall over.

I don’t say you were wrong I was pointing out the absurdly narrow focus of your argument. On top of 100,000 uk emigrants 400,000 others left. Who were they? How many were long term residents who actually paid a lot of tax? And how many of the trillions of incomers are going to be a net drain on the treasury, instead?

I fear the details won’t be good for UK PLC

Foxy said:

williamglenn said:

Foxy said:

williamglenn said:

Heathener said:

MisterBedfordshire said:

TimS said:

MisterBedfordshire said:

Its not the super rich fleeing they want to worry about it is the middle giving up.

Personally I am part time now, which keeps me below £50k. Before I was stuffing huge amounts into Pension additional voluntary contributions. Don't mind paying 28% but damned if I will pay 70% marginal rate in tax and child benefit withrawals. So by trying to get 70% off me instead of 28% they get 0%.

There are similar things happening at £100k with childcare/personal allowance cliff.

The last two years have seen inflation matching benefit rises of 10% and 8% with tax allowances. on those working (and getting much lower pay rises) to pay for it.

So people are changing sides. A huge amount of those claiming working age sickness benefits are for conditions with a subjective diagnosis (backache/mental health condition). Only 16% were turned down.

Do I blame them. No. If I had no qualifications and rented and the choice was go on the sick, get my rent paid, get a stipend, get cost of living payments, get 75% of council tax paid, pay social utility rates, get a free mobility car...

...or get an unpleasant McJob that involved being treated poorly and unsocial night shifts and having 25% more cash at the end of it if I was lucky, I'm not sure I wouldn't do the same (that is before taking into account cash in hand receipts for the former).

So tax and benefit rises are already turning net contributors into net receivers. More of the same from Labour is the path to Bankruptcy

Latest in the familiar genre of “the Tories have made things shit. So you’d better not vote Labour because they might ruin it”.

Quite the opposite. I am explaining why they are going to get the drubbing of their lives and are behind Farages lot.

However, if Labour double down on it and increase benefits and taxes further, they will go the same way in 2029. They are going to have tu implement almost Dickensian reform if they want a second term.

As I have been at pains to point out, historically if Labour do achieve a 150+ seat majority they won’t be leaving office for at least 9 years, or 10 if they go full two terms.

The right can try to console itself over what is happening but it’s flight reaction from the reality of the present situation.

Historical precedents won't apply because of the way the parties are realigning. It doesn't take much of a swing to go from this to NOM, and then it doesn't take much more movement before Labour are going the same way as the Tories and the Lib Dems and Reform or its successor dominate the political map.

williamglenn said:

If the current trends continue, a result like this isn't out of the question, however it would only take a swing of a further 2% to Reform to wipe out the Labour majority entirely so it would be very volatile.

Yes but those are just made up figures, and even those have a Labour majority!

The point is to illustrate that not all big majorities are equal. One achieved like that would leave Labour vulnerable to very small swings.

It's not going to happen, but you could make a fortune on the Spreads by buying Reform if you really believed it.

I think it quite likely that they won't win a single seat.

viewcode said:

MisterBedfordshire said:

Thanks to those who said I am a CCHQ plant. It has made my day. I will inform one or two friends who will find it amusing.

I've been here on and off since roughly 2005 but have not posted since 2016 as I had too much going on in my life.

Having rejoined this morning, the weather has been rubbish and I have spent so much time reading the site I've remembered one why I stopped posting before lol, PB addiction.

Did you used to be Paul from Bedfordshire?

Heathener said:

Foxy said:

williamglenn said:

Foxy said:

williamglenn said:

Heathener said:

MisterBedfordshire said:

TimS said:

MisterBedfordshire said:

Its not the super rich fleeing they want to worry about it is the middle giving up.

Personally I am part time now, which keeps me below £50k. Before I was stuffing huge amounts into Pension additional voluntary contributions. Don't mind paying 28% but damned if I will pay 70% marginal rate in tax and child benefit withrawals. So by trying to get 70% off me instead of 28% they get 0%.

There are similar things happening at £100k with childcare/personal allowance cliff.

The last two years have seen inflation matching benefit rises of 10% and 8% with tax allowances. on those working (and getting much lower pay rises) to pay for it.

So people are changing sides. A huge amount of those claiming working age sickness benefits are for conditions with a subjective diagnosis (backache/mental health condition). Only 16% were turned down.

Do I blame them. No. If I had no qualifications and rented and the choice was go on the sick, get my rent paid, get a stipend, get cost of living payments, get 75% of council tax paid, pay social utility rates, get a free mobility car...

...or get an unpleasant McJob that involved being treated poorly and unsocial night shifts and having 25% more cash at the end of it if I was lucky, I'm not sure I wouldn't do the same (that is before taking into account cash in hand receipts for the former).

So tax and benefit rises are already turning net contributors into net receivers. More of the same from Labour is the path to Bankruptcy

Latest in the familiar genre of “the Tories have made things shit. So you’d better not vote Labour because they might ruin it”.

Quite the opposite. I am explaining why they are going to get the drubbing of their lives and are behind Farages lot.

However, if Labour double down on it and increase benefits and taxes further, they will go the same way in 2029. They are going to have tu implement almost Dickensian reform if they want a second term.

As I have been at pains to point out, historically if Labour do achieve a 150+ seat majority they won’t be leaving office for at least 9 years, or 10 if they go full two terms.

The right can try to console itself over what is happening but it’s flight reaction from the reality of the present situation.

Historical precedents won't apply because of the way the parties are realigning. It doesn't take much of a swing to go from this to NOM, and then it doesn't take much more movement before Labour are going the same way as the Tories and the Lib Dems and Reform or its successor dominate the political map.

williamglenn said:

If the current trends continue, a result like this isn't out of the question, however it would only take a swing of a further 2% to Reform to wipe out the Labour majority entirely so it would be very volatile.

Yes but those are just made up figures, and even those have a Labour majority!

The point is to illustrate that not all big majorities are equal. One achieved like that would leave Labour vulnerable to very small swings.

It's not going to happen, but you could make a fortune on the Spreads by buying Reform if you really believed it.

I think it quite likely that they won't win a single seat.

Has the possibility been discussed on here of Reform winning 2 or 3 seats but Nigel Farage isn’t one of them?

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

Nigelb said:

Leon said:

MightyAlex said:

kyf_100 said:

eek said:

kyf_100 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Nigelb said:

Starmer rules out CGT on primary residences for the duration of the next parliament.

But not CGT from other avenues.

Indeed. It's rather obvious at this point they are coming for capital gains in a big way. Canada did similar earlier this year, and is already seeing capital flight.

Fpt my story is fairly simple, I used to be on a high income, paying 40% on that and investing about half my net PAYE pay. Over the last decade I've accumulated seven figures in unrealised gains.

Let's assume 1,000,000 exactly for a quick calculation. At current rates that's 200k tax. Which is doable. At 40% that becomes 400k in tax. Which to avoid, you have to leave the UK for 5 years after making the disposal (preferably in a 0% jurisdiction such as Dubai.)

So the choice is to pay HMRC 400k, or spend, say, 200k on a nice 5 year holiday backpacking round the far east, and still being up 200k more than if remaining in the UK. From a personal perspective it really is a no brainer and I imagine most would be exploring the same options I currently am.

Capital is mobile, and tbh I'd rather pay a reasonable amount. Cgt at 40%+ would be one of the most punitive tax regimes in the world and a lot of people with more than a million or two in gains - think successful entrepreneurs cashing out of their businesses - will be making the same calculation.

Except there are lifetime allowances for businessmen selling their business. Granted the £1m at 10% isn’t the £10m it used to be but it’s better than nothing

Also while you can up sticks it’s a lot harder for other people

What makes you think that allowance will survive the next budget?

The thing that gets me is a 40% cgt hits people like me who already paid 40% on our work incomes, invested the rest, and did well on the markets.

When what you really want to be going for is the "born with millions and living off the family trust fund" crowd who are far wealthier than I will ever be.

I worked 12+ hours days at my corporate drone job for years, spent little and invested my money wisely. A 1%'er I am most certainly not.

As I said in the previous thread, it's the ladder curve in action. Tax my investments at 20% and you get a few hundred thousand for UK plc's coffers, tax them at 40% and it's in my best interest to get out entirely.

And at the end of the day, we are all governed by rational self interest.

Go away then. Go be morose in Dubai or the UAE or Saudi or Monaco. You've done your bit and taken your share. Hand your passport in and live a new unmoored life as a tax exile unencumbered by social norms. You could even meet up with our resident shit and chat about the wrongs of CGT.

Just don't come back if you need a new hip or your liver stops working or a Gulf sheikh acting in rational self interest has confiscated your cash.

I’ve probably paid more in tax to the UK than you’ve earned in total

So I’ll do what I like, within the law

By your own account you're already something of a tax exile ?

But agreed, it's rather counterproductive to berate you for that.

Equally, if you do become a permanent exile, your ongoing stake in our politics (not that it will, or should bother you) is seriously diminished.

The last point is true to an extent, I can actually feel
myself caring less about the UK and about UK politics. Its a definite thing

However I will still care quite a lot because I have lots of friends and family in the UK - most of all my elder daughter

I want what’s best for them so I will still be emotionally invested

Your predicament reminds me of the White Russians when Lenin took over.

A lot of them came here - to Odessa - funnily enough. Then they moved on

The life of an exile can often be sad, morose, lonely, drunken. That’s why I’ve been experimenting with it for the last year or two. Spending more than 50% of my time abroad

Turns out I rather like it, sometimes I absolutely love it. But I only like it because I can keep moving. Seeing things and meeting people. I would become that sad lonely drunk if I was marooned on Phuket for 12 months out of 12

So I intend to keep moving and only keep the lightest foothold in some useful hub that I can call a kind of home for the few weeks/months I am there

It’s not a life for everyone or even most people. True nomadism. Most people like a nest

Yes, choose the life you want to the extent you are able to do so. Everyone does that. But not everyone alternates between romanticising their choice and making out they're being forced into it. That seems to be a you thing.

But I’m not alternating. I’m saying both factors are in play. And they are - it’s a mix

Indeed if I said otherwise you’d accuse me of lying. And rightly. If I said “oh I’m off around the world because I’m a dreamy nomad” you’d say “nah, you’re just avoiding uk tax and weather”. And if I said “ugh I hate uk tax and labour weather, I’m off” you’d scoff and say “you spend all your life abroad anyway, you’re just trying to turn it into a political point”

See?

So I’m being truthful. Two things are at work at once

turbotubbs said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Yet another match cancelled in the T20 WC. What an omnishambles.

Would never happen in England in June.

FrancisUrquhart said:

turbotubbs said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Yet another match cancelled in the T20 WC. What an omnishambles.

Would never happen in England in June.

We haven't had any word of a delayed toss, but with the covers on it seems unlikely we'll start on time.

Heathener said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Yet another match cancelled in the T20 WC. What an omnishambles.

It has been a thoroughly peculiar tournament so far, hasn’t it?

boulay said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

turbotubbs said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Yet another match cancelled in the T20 WC. What an omnishambles.

Would never happen in England in June.

We haven't had any word of a delayed toss, but with the covers on it seems unlikely we'll start on time.

The guardian live blog is saying toss is delayed and there will be showers through the day so it will be a bit on/off.

viewcode said:

MisterBedfordshire said:

viewcode said:

MisterBedfordshire said:

Thanks to those who said I am a CCHQ plant. It has made my day. I will inform one or two friends who will find it amusing.

I've been here on and off since roughly 2005 but have not posted since 2016 as I had too much going on in my life.

Having rejoined this morning, the weather has been rubbish and I have spent so much time reading the site I've remembered one why I stopped posting before lol, PB addiction.

Did you used to be Paul from Bedfordshire?

Yes.

A good few familiar names but some have vanished. Including OGH sadly.

Welcome back. 😀

turbotubbs said:

boulay said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

turbotubbs said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Yet another match cancelled in the T20 WC. What an omnishambles.

Would never happen in England in June.

We haven't had any word of a delayed toss, but with the covers on it seems unlikely we'll start on time.

The guardian live blog is saying toss is delayed and there will be showers through the day so it will be a bit on/off.

If England go out only having two completed matches, then it’s an absolute joke.

Foxy said:

Sandpit said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MisterBedfordshire said:

Its not the super rich fleeing they want to worry about it is the middle giving up.

Personally I am part time now, which keeps me below £50k. Before I was stuffing huge amounts into Pension additional voluntary contributions. Don't mind paying 28% but damned if I will pay 70% marginal rate in tax and child benefit withrawals. So by trying to get 70% off me instead of 28% they get 0%.

There are similar things happening at £100k with childcare/personal allowance cliff.

The last two years have seen inflation matching benefit rises of 10% and 8% with tax allowances. on those working (and getting much lower pay rises) to pay for it.

So people are changing sides. A huge amount of those claiming working age sickness benefits are for conditions with a subjective diagnosis (backache/mental health condition). Only 16% were turned down.

Do I blame them. No. If I had no qualifications and rented and the choice was go on the sick, get my rent paid, get a stipend, get cost of living payments, get 75% of council tax paid, pay social utility rates, get a free mobility car...

...or get an unpleasant McJob that involved being treated poorly and unsocial night shifts and having 25% more cash at the end of it if I was lucky, I'm not sure I wouldn't do the same (that is before taking into account cash in hand receipts for the former).

So tax and benefit rises are already turning net contributors into net receivers. More of the same from Labour is the path to Bankruptcy

This has been the most amazing thing about a Tory government. What the core problem with UK PLC, productivity, what things have Tories done...reduced CGT threshold and entrepreneurial relief on CGT from first business sale, introduce pension pot limit on tax relief, NI rises, introduced new NI++, and continued £50k cliff edge, £100k cliff edge,.....all great for growth and improved productivity, not.

Indeed, and the expectation for a Labour government would be to make every one of those worse.

We heard a lof talk of people moving abroad in the run up to 1997 too. Its a familiar scare story that the right wing parties like to run.

Anyone who did missed out on a long period of economic growth with taxes unchanged, at least until the aftermath of the GFC.

Worth noting too that under Conservative plans tax take goes up every year of the next parliament.

turbotubbs said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Yet another match cancelled in the T20 WC. What an omnishambles.

Would never happen in England in June.

MisterBedfordshire said:

Heathener said:

MisterBedfordshire said:

Leon said:

Carnyx said:

Leon said:

Farooq said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Farooq said:

Leon said:

Farooq said:

Leon said:

Tres said:

kyf_100 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Nigelb said:

Starmer rules out CGT on primary residences for the duration of the next parliament.

But not CGT from other avenues.

Indeed. It's rather obvious at this point they are coming for capital gains in a big way. Canada did similar earlier this year, and is already seeing capital flight.

Fpt my story is fairly simple, I used to be on a high income, paying 40% on that and investing about half my net PAYE pay. Over the last decade I've accumulated seven figures in unrealised gains.

Let's assume 1,000,000 exactly for a quick calculation. At current rates that's 200k tax. Which is doable. At 40% that becomes 400k in tax. Which to avoid, you have to leave the UK for 5 years after making the disposal (preferably in a 0% jurisdiction such as Dubai.)

So the choice is to pay HMRC 400k, or spend, say, 200k on a nice 5 year holiday backpacking round the far east, and still being up 200k more than if remaining in the UK. From a personal perspective it really is a no brainer and I imagine most would be exploring the same options I currently am.

Capital is mobile, and tbh I'd rather pay a reasonable amount. Cgt at 40%+ would be one of the most punitive tax regimes in the world and a lot of people with more than a million or two in gains - think successful entrepreneurs cashing out of their businesses - will be making the same calculation.

but most people have no capital gains to tax. It's like the parent's crying about VAT on private school, not enough of you to matter.

The top 1% of Britons in income pay 30% of the tax. I believe. Be very careful what you wish for

How much of the income do they get?

It doesn’t matter if half of them fuck off. Suddenly you’ve got an ENORMOUS hole in already stretched HMG finances, and Britain is bankrupt. Bravo

I tired of rich people holding the country hostage. I say, tax them more. I'm willing to bet most of them stay put. Most people have friends and family and lives here. Uprooting your life is a huge time and emotional cost. It most cases it won't be worth the trouble. I say, bring it on.

250k UK citizens have moved to Dubai in the last few years. Its happening already.

Given that UK citizens emigrating is about 100k per year in total, you probably need to qualify "in the last few years".

Er, in the last year 532,000 people emigrated from the UK

ONS:

“1.2 million people migrated into the UK and 532,000 people emigrated from it, leaving a net migration figure of 685,000. This represents the balance of long-term migrants moving in and out of the country.”

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn06077/

Farroq said UK citizens.

Farooq said:

Carnyx said:

Leon said:

Farooq said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Farooq said:

Leon said:

Farooq said:

Leon said:

Tres said:

kyf_100 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Nigelb said:

Starmer rules out CGT on primary residences for the duration of the next parliament.

But not CGT from other avenues.

Indeed. It's rather obvious at this point they are coming for capital gains in a big way. Canada did similar earlier this year, and is already seeing capital flight.

Fpt my story is fairly simple, I used to be on a high income, paying 40% on that and investing about half my net PAYE pay. Over the last decade I've accumulated seven figures in unrealised gains.

Let's assume 1,000,000 exactly for a quick calculation. At current rates that's 200k tax. Which is doable. At 40% that becomes 400k in tax. Which to avoid, you have to leave the UK for 5 years after making the disposal (preferably in a 0% jurisdiction such as Dubai.)

So the choice is to pay HMRC 400k, or spend, say, 200k on a nice 5 year holiday backpacking round the far east, and still being up 200k more than if remaining in the UK. From a personal perspective it really is a no brainer and I imagine most would be exploring the same options I currently am.

Capital is mobile, and tbh I'd rather pay a reasonable amount. Cgt at 40%+ would be one of the most punitive tax regimes in the world and a lot of people with more than a million or two in gains - think successful entrepreneurs cashing out of their businesses - will be making the same calculation.

but most people have no capital gains to tax. It's like the parent's crying about VAT on private school, not enough of you to matter.

The top 1% of Britons in income pay 30% of the tax. I believe. Be very careful what you wish for

How much of the income do they get?

It doesn’t matter if half of them fuck off. Suddenly you’ve got an ENORMOUS hole in already stretched HMG finances, and Britain is bankrupt. Bravo

I tired of rich people holding the country hostage. I say, tax them more. I'm willing to bet most of them stay put. Most people have friends and family and lives here. Uprooting your life is a huge time and emotional cost. It most cases it won't be worth the trouble. I say, bring it on.

250k UK citizens have moved to Dubai in the last few years. Its happening already.

Given that UK citizens emigrating is about 100k per year in total, you probably need to qualify "in the last few years".

Er, in the last year 532,000 people emigrated from the UK

ONS:

“1.2 million people migrated into the UK and 532,000 people emigrated from it, leaving a net migration figure of 685,000. This represents the balance of long-term migrants moving in and out of the country.”

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn06077/

Farroq said UK citizens.

Exactly, and then because that's what FrancisUrquhart lead with. Just sticking to the terms of the conversation is apparently enough to make Leon dizzy and fall over.

I don’t say you were wrong I was pointing out the absurdly narrow focus of your argument. On top of 100,000 uk emigrants 400,000 others left. Who were they? How many were long term residents who actually paid a lot of tax? And how many of the trillions of incomers are going to be a net drain on the treasury, instead?

I fear the details won’t be good for UK PLC

The tax system is very harsh on writers who get big sums then very little for potentially years.

James Herriot's sons autobiography of him recounts how during the Labour 74-79 era he handed the vast majority of his book earnings to the treasury and attempted to contact the only other well earning writer who was still in the country only to find that he too had bolted.

It was iirc George Osborne who put a stop to authors being able to spread their earnings over several years

p.s. be sure to pass this back to your masters in CCHQ

Are you mad. I have already said that I will vote Reform (heart) or (God Help Me) Labour (head) to make sure the Tories lose in my seat. I am furious with them.

And I am not that new. Remember Brexit and the 6:1 bet the day before?

kinabalu said:

MisterBedfordshire said:

Heathener said:

MisterBedfordshire said:

Leon said:

Carnyx said:

Leon said:

Farooq said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Farooq said:

Leon said:

Farooq said:

Leon said:

Tres said:

kyf_100 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Nigelb said:

Starmer rules out CGT on primary residences for the duration of the next parliament.

But not CGT from other avenues.

Indeed. It's rather obvious at this point they are coming for capital gains in a big way. Canada did similar earlier this year, and is already seeing capital flight.

Fpt my story is fairly simple, I used to be on a high income, paying 40% on that and investing about half my net PAYE pay. Over the last decade I've accumulated seven figures in unrealised gains.

Let's assume 1,000,000 exactly for a quick calculation. At current rates that's 200k tax. Which is doable. At 40% that becomes 400k in tax. Which to avoid, you have to leave the UK for 5 years after making the disposal (preferably in a 0% jurisdiction such as Dubai.)

So the choice is to pay HMRC 400k, or spend, say, 200k on a nice 5 year holiday backpacking round the far east, and still being up 200k more than if remaining in the UK. From a personal perspective it really is a no brainer and I imagine most would be exploring the same options I currently am.

Capital is mobile, and tbh I'd rather pay a reasonable amount. Cgt at 40%+ would be one of the most punitive tax regimes in the world and a lot of people with more than a million or two in gains - think successful entrepreneurs cashing out of their businesses - will be making the same calculation.

but most people have no capital gains to tax. It's like the parent's crying about VAT on private school, not enough of you to matter.

The top 1% of Britons in income pay 30% of the tax. I believe. Be very careful what you wish for

How much of the income do they get?

It doesn’t matter if half of them fuck off. Suddenly you’ve got an ENORMOUS hole in already stretched HMG finances, and Britain is bankrupt. Bravo

I tired of rich people holding the country hostage. I say, tax them more. I'm willing to bet most of them stay put. Most people have friends and family and lives here. Uprooting your life is a huge time and emotional cost. It most cases it won't be worth the trouble. I say, bring it on.

250k UK citizens have moved to Dubai in the last few years. Its happening already.

Given that UK citizens emigrating is about 100k per year in total, you probably need to qualify "in the last few years".

Er, in the last year 532,000 people emigrated from the UK

ONS:

“1.2 million people migrated into the UK and 532,000 people emigrated from it, leaving a net migration figure of 685,000. This represents the balance of long-term migrants moving in and out of the country.”

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn06077/

Farroq said UK citizens.

Farooq said:

Carnyx said:

Leon said:

Farooq said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Farooq said:

Leon said:

Farooq said:

Leon said:

Tres said:

kyf_100 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Nigelb said:

Starmer rules out CGT on primary residences for the duration of the next parliament.

But not CGT from other avenues.

Indeed. It's rather obvious at this point they are coming for capital gains in a big way. Canada did similar earlier this year, and is already seeing capital flight.

Fpt my story is fairly simple, I used to be on a high income, paying 40% on that and investing about half my net PAYE pay. Over the last decade I've accumulated seven figures in unrealised gains.

Let's assume 1,000,000 exactly for a quick calculation. At current rates that's 200k tax. Which is doable. At 40% that becomes 400k in tax. Which to avoid, you have to leave the UK for 5 years after making the disposal (preferably in a 0% jurisdiction such as Dubai.)

So the choice is to pay HMRC 400k, or spend, say, 200k on a nice 5 year holiday backpacking round the far east, and still being up 200k more than if remaining in the UK. From a personal perspective it really is a no brainer and I imagine most would be exploring the same options I currently am.

Capital is mobile, and tbh I'd rather pay a reasonable amount. Cgt at 40%+ would be one of the most punitive tax regimes in the world and a lot of people with more than a million or two in gains - think successful entrepreneurs cashing out of their businesses - will be making the same calculation.

but most people have no capital gains to tax. It's like the parent's crying about VAT on private school, not enough of you to matter.

The top 1% of Britons in income pay 30% of the tax. I believe. Be very careful what you wish for

How much of the income do they get?

It doesn’t matter if half of them fuck off. Suddenly you’ve got an ENORMOUS hole in already stretched HMG finances, and Britain is bankrupt. Bravo

I tired of rich people holding the country hostage. I say, tax them more. I'm willing to bet most of them stay put. Most people have friends and family and lives here. Uprooting your life is a huge time and emotional cost. It most cases it won't be worth the trouble. I say, bring it on.

250k UK citizens have moved to Dubai in the last few years. Its happening already.

Given that UK citizens emigrating is about 100k per year in total, you probably need to qualify "in the last few years".

Er, in the last year 532,000 people emigrated from the UK

ONS:

“1.2 million people migrated into the UK and 532,000 people emigrated from it, leaving a net migration figure of 685,000. This represents the balance of long-term migrants moving in and out of the country.”

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn06077/

Farroq said UK citizens.

Exactly, and then because that's what FrancisUrquhart lead with. Just sticking to the terms of the conversation is apparently enough to make Leon dizzy and fall over.

I don’t say you were wrong I was pointing out the absurdly narrow focus of your argument. On top of 100,000 uk emigrants 400,000 others left. Who were they? How many were long term residents who actually paid a lot of tax? And how many of the trillions of incomers are going to be a net drain on the treasury, instead?

I fear the details won’t be good for UK PLC

The tax system is very harsh on writers who get big sums then very little for potentially years.

James Herriot's sons autobiography of him recounts how during the Labour 74-79 era he handed the vast majority of his book earnings to the treasury and attempted to contact the only other well earning writer who was still in the country only to find that he too had bolted.

It was iirc George Osborne who put a stop to authors being able to spread their earnings over several years

p.s. be sure to pass this back to your masters in CCHQ

Are you mad. I have already said that I will vote Reform (heart) or (God Help Me) Labour (head) to make sure the Tories lose in my seat. I am furious with them.

And I am not that new. Remember Brexit and the 6:1 bet the day before?

Your ♥ surely cannot lie with Nigel Farage. Where's the romance in bad breath and obsessing about immigration?

pigeon said:

boulay said:

turbotubbs said:

boulay said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

turbotubbs said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Yet another match cancelled in the T20 WC. What an omnishambles.

Would never happen in England in June.

We haven't had any word of a delayed toss, but with the covers on it seems unlikely we'll start on time.

The guardian live blog is saying toss is delayed and there will be showers through the day so it will be a bit on/off.

If England go out only having two completed matches, then it’s an absolute joke.

It’s not exactly ideal when trying to break a new market and the whole competition loses matches, results and teams because they can’t consider extra rain days or play the tournament in a dry season or dry areas.

I'm trying to think of any other sport where bad weather would result in cancelling most of the competition outright and, effectively, resorting to a bent lottery to decide who advances. Cricket is ridiculous, but then we knew that already.

Foxy said:

Heathener said:

Foxy said:

williamglenn said:

Foxy said:

williamglenn said:

Heathener said:

MisterBedfordshire said:

TimS said:

MisterBedfordshire said:

Its not the super rich fleeing they want to worry about it is the middle giving up.

Personally I am part time now, which keeps me below £50k. Before I was stuffing huge amounts into Pension additional voluntary contributions. Don't mind paying 28% but damned if I will pay 70% marginal rate in tax and child benefit withrawals. So by trying to get 70% off me instead of 28% they get 0%.

There are similar things happening at £100k with childcare/personal allowance cliff.

The last two years have seen inflation matching benefit rises of 10% and 8% with tax allowances. on those working (and getting much lower pay rises) to pay for it.

So people are changing sides. A huge amount of those claiming working age sickness benefits are for conditions with a subjective diagnosis (backache/mental health condition). Only 16% were turned down.

Do I blame them. No. If I had no qualifications and rented and the choice was go on the sick, get my rent paid, get a stipend, get cost of living payments, get 75% of council tax paid, pay social utility rates, get a free mobility car...

...or get an unpleasant McJob that involved being treated poorly and unsocial night shifts and having 25% more cash at the end of it if I was lucky, I'm not sure I wouldn't do the same (that is before taking into account cash in hand receipts for the former).

So tax and benefit rises are already turning net contributors into net receivers. More of the same from Labour is the path to Bankruptcy

Latest in the familiar genre of “the Tories have made things shit. So you’d better not vote Labour because they might ruin it”.

Quite the opposite. I am explaining why they are going to get the drubbing of their lives and are behind Farages lot.

However, if Labour double down on it and increase benefits and taxes further, they will go the same way in 2029. They are going to have tu implement almost Dickensian reform if they want a second term.

As I have been at pains to point out, historically if Labour do achieve a 150+ seat majority they won’t be leaving office for at least 9 years, or 10 if they go full two terms.

The right can try to console itself over what is happening but it’s flight reaction from the reality of the present situation.

Historical precedents won't apply because of the way the parties are realigning. It doesn't take much of a swing to go from this to NOM, and then it doesn't take much more movement before Labour are going the same way as the Tories and the Lib Dems and Reform or its successor dominate the political map.

williamglenn said:

If the current trends continue, a result like this isn't out of the question, however it would only take a swing of a further 2% to Reform to wipe out the Labour majority entirely so it would be very volatile.

Yes but those are just made up figures, and even those have a Labour majority!

The point is to illustrate that not all big majorities are equal. One achieved like that would leave Labour vulnerable to very small swings.

It's not going to happen, but you could make a fortune on the Spreads by buying Reform if you really believed it.

I think it quite likely that they won't win a single seat.

Has the possibility been discussed on here of Reform winning 2 or 3 seats but Nigel Farage isn’t one of them?

I think that very possible. Not only do many Tories dislike Farage, in Clacton there is a very obvious Stop Farage Candidate. It's the only seat in the UK where I would vote Conservative, and I am not the only one thinking that.

Even in 2015 at the height of UKIP mania, Carswell had only a modest majority and was well known locally as a constituency MP. Now Watling has that advantage.

kyf_100 said:

Foxy said:

Sandpit said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MisterBedfordshire said:

Its not the super rich fleeing they want to worry about it is the middle giving up.

Personally I am part time now, which keeps me below £50k. Before I was stuffing huge amounts into Pension additional voluntary contributions. Don't mind paying 28% but damned if I will pay 70% marginal rate in tax and child benefit withrawals. So by trying to get 70% off me instead of 28% they get 0%.

There are similar things happening at £100k with childcare/personal allowance cliff.

The last two years have seen inflation matching benefit rises of 10% and 8% with tax allowances. on those working (and getting much lower pay rises) to pay for it.

So people are changing sides. A huge amount of those claiming working age sickness benefits are for conditions with a subjective diagnosis (backache/mental health condition). Only 16% were turned down.

Do I blame them. No. If I had no qualifications and rented and the choice was go on the sick, get my rent paid, get a stipend, get cost of living payments, get 75% of council tax paid, pay social utility rates, get a free mobility car...

...or get an unpleasant McJob that involved being treated poorly and unsocial night shifts and having 25% more cash at the end of it if I was lucky, I'm not sure I wouldn't do the same (that is before taking into account cash in hand receipts for the former).

So tax and benefit rises are already turning net contributors into net receivers. More of the same from Labour is the path to Bankruptcy

This has been the most amazing thing about a Tory government. What the core problem with UK PLC, productivity, what things have Tories done...reduced CGT threshold and entrepreneurial relief on CGT from first business sale, introduce pension pot limit on tax relief, NI rises, introduced new NI++, and continued £50k cliff edge, £100k cliff edge,.....all great for growth and improved productivity, not.

Indeed, and the expectation for a Labour government would be to make every one of those worse.

We heard a lof talk of people moving abroad in the run up to 1997 too. Its a familiar scare story that the right wing parties like to run.

Anyone who did missed out on a long period of economic growth with taxes unchanged, at least until the aftermath of the GFC.

Worth noting too that under Conservative plans tax take goes up every year of the next parliament.

In 1997 nobody was talking about doubling taxes on capital at the next budget.

Imagine if it was mooted -and not denied- that the higher rate of income tax was going to go from 40% this year to 80% next. It might cause some consternation.

I might even stick around to pay 25% cgt. But 20% to 40% overnight makes it makes it worth my while to get out. And I'm only a poor wage slave with a mil or two as an investment portfolio. The calculation becomes even more obvious for the uber-rich.

kyf_100 said:

Foxy said:

Sandpit said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MisterBedfordshire said:

Its not the super rich fleeing they want to worry about it is the middle giving up.

Personally I am part time now, which keeps me below £50k. Before I was stuffing huge amounts into Pension additional voluntary contributions. Don't mind paying 28% but damned if I will pay 70% marginal rate in tax and child benefit withrawals. So by trying to get 70% off me instead of 28% they get 0%.

There are similar things happening at £100k with childcare/personal allowance cliff.

The last two years have seen inflation matching benefit rises of 10% and 8% with tax allowances. on those working (and getting much lower pay rises) to pay for it.

So people are changing sides. A huge amount of those claiming working age sickness benefits are for conditions with a subjective diagnosis (backache/mental health condition). Only 16% were turned down.

Do I blame them. No. If I had no qualifications and rented and the choice was go on the sick, get my rent paid, get a stipend, get cost of living payments, get 75% of council tax paid, pay social utility rates, get a free mobility car...

...or get an unpleasant McJob that involved being treated poorly and unsocial night shifts and having 25% more cash at the end of it if I was lucky, I'm not sure I wouldn't do the same (that is before taking into account cash in hand receipts for the former).

So tax and benefit rises are already turning net contributors into net receivers. More of the same from Labour is the path to Bankruptcy

This has been the most amazing thing about a Tory government. What the core problem with UK PLC, productivity, what things have Tories done...reduced CGT threshold and entrepreneurial relief on CGT from first business sale, introduce pension pot limit on tax relief, NI rises, introduced new NI++, and continued £50k cliff edge, £100k cliff edge,.....all great for growth and improved productivity, not.

Indeed, and the expectation for a Labour government would be to make every one of those worse.

We heard a lof talk of people moving abroad in the run up to 1997 too. Its a familiar scare story that the right wing parties like to run.

Anyone who did missed out on a long period of economic growth with taxes unchanged, at least until the aftermath of the GFC.

Worth noting too that under Conservative plans tax take goes up every year of the next parliament.

In 1997 nobody was talking about doubling taxes on capital at the next budget.

Imagine if it was mooted -and not denied- that the higher rate of income tax was going to go from 40% this year to 80% next. It might cause some consternation.

I might even stick around to pay 25% cgt. But 20% to 40% overnight makes it makes it worth my while to get out. And I'm only a poor wage slave with a mil or two as an investment portfolio. The calculation becomes even more obvious for the uber-rich.

noneoftheabove said:

Mexicanpete said:

Tres said:

Gallowgate said:

Is there anything more bellend-ish than boasting about your income?

boasting about how much tax you've paid

It's quite remarkable how many Gazillionaires we have on PB, but no sink estate single mums or dads on benefits.

Lots of dads on benefits on here. They even think they paid for them with their "stamp", bless.

Not sure political betting has ever been popular with sink estate single mums.

Stuartinromford said:

Leon said:

TimS said:

When Boris won a large majority in 2019 he was squatting like a toad over British politics and commencing a thousand year reign. If Starmer wins a similar majority this time he’ll be presiding over a castle built of sand.

Either pundits have learned from the last 5 years, or they are exhibiting their own unconscious biases about “the natural party of government” vs “the other party”.

Robert Peston is making the very same analysis however


“It is all very well for Starmer to set expectations relatively low for what a Labour government could achieve in the short term. But he is telling British people he represents “change”, which does not sound modest.

If in fact Starmer delivers more of the same, his apotheosis may be just as short as Johnson’s.”

https://x.com/peston/status/1801914360706564255?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

But I thought the general principle here was that Peston analysis wasn't always very good?

On the substantive point, the Conservative victory in 2019 really ought to have been big enough to see them through two terms. All they had to do was not stuff up too badly. Unfortunately, stuffing up badly was exactly what they have done. At many times, in many ways and on a scale that the most creative satirist couldn't invent. With the consequences now beginning to play out. (I think we can say that, if postal votes have started to go out, voting has begun.)

That is what should haunt the entire British centre-right. What's happening to them is very largely self-inflicted. Not entirely- there was Covid, there is Ukraine. But the rest of it is the "Find Out" phase of FAFO.

Now it's possible that Boring Old Starmer will stuff up to a similar degree. But ask yourself- is it likely?

Stuartinromford said:

Leon said:

TimS said:

When Boris won a large majority in 2019 he was squatting like a toad over British politics and commencing a thousand year reign. If Starmer wins a similar majority this time he’ll be presiding over a castle built of sand.

Either pundits have learned from the last 5 years, or they are exhibiting their own unconscious biases about “the natural party of government” vs “the other party”.

Robert Peston is making the very same analysis however


“It is all very well for Starmer to set expectations relatively low for what a Labour government could achieve in the short term. But he is telling British people he represents “change”, which does not sound modest.

If in fact Starmer delivers more of the same, his apotheosis may be just as short as Johnson’s.”

https://x.com/peston/status/1801914360706564255?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

But I thought the general principle here was that Peston analysis wasn't always very good?

On the substantive point, the Conservative victory in 2019 really ought to have been big enough to see them through two terms. All they had to do was not stuff up too badly. Unfortunately, stuffing up badly was exactly what they have done. At many times, in many ways and on a scale that the most creative satirist couldn't invent. With the consequences now beginning to play out. (I think we can say that, if postal votes have started to go out, voting has begun.)

That is what should haunt the entire British centre-right. What's happening to them is very largely self-inflicted. Not entirely- there was Covid, there is Ukraine. But the rest of it is the "Find Out" phase of FAFO.

Now it's possible that Boring Old Starmer will stuff up to a similar degree. But ask yourself- is it likely?

biggles said:

dixiedean said:

boulay said:

turbotubbs said:

boulay said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

turbotubbs said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Yet another match cancelled in the T20 WC. What an omnishambles.

Would never happen in England in June.

We haven't had any word of a delayed toss, but with the covers on it seems unlikely we'll start on time.

The guardian live blog is saying toss is delayed and there will be showers through the day so it will be a bit on/off.

If England go out only having two completed matches, then it’s an absolute joke.

It’s not exactly ideal when trying to break a new market and the whole competition loses matches, results and teams because they can’t consider extra rain days or play the tournament in a dry season or dry areas.

In addition to this.
The groups are too small.
4 games isn't enough for T20.

Going out because of rain is awful. Makes cricket, the finest of sports, look silly.