Its not the super rich fleeing they want to worry about it is the middle giving up.
Personally I am part time now, which keeps me below £50k. Before I was stuffing huge amounts into Pension additional voluntary contributions. Don't mind paying 28% but damned if I will pay 70% marginal rate in tax and child benefit withrawals. So by trying to get 70% off me instead of 28% they get 0%.
There are similar things happening at £100k with childcare/personal allowance cliff.
The last two years have seen inflation matching benefit rises of 10% and 8% with tax allowances. on those working (and getting much lower pay rises) to pay for it.
So people are changing sides. A huge amount of those claiming working age sickness benefits are for conditions with a subjective diagnosis (backache/mental health condition). Only 16% were turned down.
Do I blame them. No. If I had no qualifications and rented and the choice was go on the sick, get my rent paid, get a stipend, get cost of living payments, get 75% of council tax paid, pay social utility rates, get a free mobility car...
...or get an unpleasant McJob that involved being treated poorly and unsocial night shifts and having 25% more cash at the end of it if I was lucky, I'm not sure I wouldn't do the same (that is before taking into account cash in hand receipts for the former).
So tax and benefit rises are already turning net contributors into net receivers. More of the same from Labour is the path to Bankruptcy
Yes, the Labour government has really set up some bad incentives these last 14 years, haven't they? We should chuck them out and give Sunaks Conservatives a try.
It is precisely because the Conservatives have behaved like the stereotypical Labour government that they like to portray to scare voters into voting for them that they are behind Fargles lot in the polls.
If Labour decide to increase tax and benefits further and don't implement painful reform, they will face a similar fate at the 2029 election.
Starmer rules out CGT on primary residences for the duration of the next parliament.
But not CGT from other avenues.
Indeed. It's rather obvious at this point they are coming for capital gains in a big way. Canada did similar earlier this year, and is already seeing capital flight.
Fpt my story is fairly simple, I used to be on a high income, paying 40% on that and investing about half my net PAYE pay. Over the last decade I've accumulated seven figures in unrealised gains.
Let's assume 1,000,000 exactly for a quick calculation. At current rates that's 200k tax. Which is doable. At 40% that becomes 400k in tax. Which to avoid, you have to leave the UK for 5 years after making the disposal (preferably in a 0% jurisdiction such as Dubai.)
So the choice is to pay HMRC 400k, or spend, say, 200k on a nice 5 year holiday backpacking round the far east, and still being up 200k more than if remaining in the UK. From a personal perspective it really is a no brainer and I imagine most would be exploring the same options I currently am.
Capital is mobile, and tbh I'd rather pay a reasonable amount. Cgt at 40%+ would be one of the most punitive tax regimes in the world and a lot of people with more than a million or two in gains - think successful entrepreneurs cashing out of their businesses - will be making the same calculation.
but most people have no capital gains to tax. It's like the parent's crying about VAT on private school, not enough of you to matter.
The top 1% of Britons in income pay 30% of the tax. I believe. Be very careful what you wish for
How much of the income do they get?
It doesn’t matter if half of them fuck off. Suddenly you’ve got an ENORMOUS hole in already stretched HMG finances, and Britain is bankrupt. Bravo
I tired of rich people holding the country hostage. I say, tax them more. I'm willing to bet most of them stay put. Most people have friends and family and lives here. Uprooting your life is a huge time and emotional cost. It most cases it won't be worth the trouble. I say, bring it on.
250k UK citizens have moved to Dubai in the last few years. Its happening already.
Given that UK citizens emigrating is about 100k per year in total, you probably need to qualify "in the last few years".
Er, in the last year 532,000 people emigrated from the UK
ONS:
“1.2 million people migrated into the UK and 532,000 people emigrated from it, leaving a net migration figure of 685,000. This represents the balance of long-term migrants moving in and out of the country.”
Starmer rules out CGT on primary residences for the duration of the next parliament.
But not CGT from other avenues.
Indeed. It's rather obvious at this point they are coming for capital gains in a big way. Canada did similar earlier this year, and is already seeing capital flight.
Fpt my story is fairly simple, I used to be on a high income, paying 40% on that and investing about half my net PAYE pay. Over the last decade I've accumulated seven figures in unrealised gains.
Let's assume 1,000,000 exactly for a quick calculation. At current rates that's 200k tax. Which is doable. At 40% that becomes 400k in tax. Which to avoid, you have to leave the UK for 5 years after making the disposal (preferably in a 0% jurisdiction such as Dubai.)
So the choice is to pay HMRC 400k, or spend, say, 200k on a nice 5 year holiday backpacking round the far east, and still being up 200k more than if remaining in the UK. From a personal perspective it really is a no brainer and I imagine most would be exploring the same options I currently am.
Capital is mobile, and tbh I'd rather pay a reasonable amount. Cgt at 40%+ would be one of the most punitive tax regimes in the world and a lot of people with more than a million or two in gains - think successful entrepreneurs cashing out of their businesses - will be making the same calculation.
but most people have no capital gains to tax. It's like the parent's crying about VAT on private school, not enough of you to matter.
The top 1% of Britons in income pay 30% of the tax. I believe. Be very careful what you wish for
How much of the income do they get?
It doesn’t matter if half of them fuck off. Suddenly you’ve got an ENORMOUS hole in already stretched HMG finances, and Britain is bankrupt. Bravo
I tired of rich people holding the country hostage. I say, tax them more. I'm willing to bet most of them stay put. Most people have friends and family and lives here. Uprooting your life is a huge time and emotional cost. It most cases it won't be worth the trouble. I say, bring it on.
250k UK citizens have moved to Dubai in the last few years. Its happening already.
Given that UK citizens emigrating is about 100k per year in total, you probably need to qualify "in the last few years".
Er, in the last year 532,000 people emigrated from the UK
ONS:
“1.2 million people migrated into the UK and 532,000 people emigrated from it, leaving a net migration figure of 685,000. This represents the balance of long-term migrants moving in and out of the country.”
Exactly, and then because that's what FrancisUrquhart lead with. Just sticking to the terms of the conversation is apparently enough to make Leon dizzy and fall over.
I don’t say you were wrong I was pointing out the absurdly narrow focus of your argument. On top of 100,000 uk emigrants 400,000 others left. Who were they? How many were long term residents who actually paid a lot of tax? And how many of the trillions of incomers are going to be a net drain on the treasury, instead?
I fear the details won’t be good for UK PLC
The tax system is very harsh on writers who get big sums then very little for potentially years.
James Herriot's sons autobiography of him recounts how during the Labour 74-79 era he handed the vast majority of his book earnings to the treasury and attempted to contact the only other well earning writer who was still in the country only to find that he too had bolted.
It was iirc George Osborne who put a stop to authors being able to spread their earnings over several years
p.s. be sure to pass this back to your masters in CCHQ
Its not the super rich fleeing they want to worry about it is the middle giving up.
Personally I am part time now, which keeps me below £50k. Before I was stuffing huge amounts into Pension additional voluntary contributions. Don't mind paying 28% but damned if I will pay 70% marginal rate in tax and child benefit withrawals. So by trying to get 70% off me instead of 28% they get 0%.
There are similar things happening at £100k with childcare/personal allowance cliff.
The last two years have seen inflation matching benefit rises of 10% and 8% with tax allowances. on those working (and getting much lower pay rises) to pay for it.
So people are changing sides. A huge amount of those claiming working age sickness benefits are for conditions with a subjective diagnosis (backache/mental health condition). Only 16% were turned down.
Do I blame them. No. If I had no qualifications and rented and the choice was go on the sick, get my rent paid, get a stipend, get cost of living payments, get 75% of council tax paid, pay social utility rates, get a free mobility car...
...or get an unpleasant McJob that involved being treated poorly and unsocial night shifts and having 25% more cash at the end of it if I was lucky, I'm not sure I wouldn't do the same (that is before taking into account cash in hand receipts for the former).
So tax and benefit rises are already turning net contributors into net receivers. More of the same from Labour is the path to Bankruptcy
Yes, the Labour government has really set up some bad incentives these last 14 years, haven't they? We should chuck them out and give Sunaks Conservatives a try.
It is precisely because the Conservatives have behaved like the stereotypical Labour government that they like to portray to scare voters into voting for them that they are behind Fargles lot in the polls.
If Labour decide to increase tax and benefits further and don't implement painful reform, they will face a similar fate at the 2029 election.
Do you have a set script, or do you have to ask someone higher up in the Party how to reply?
Its not the super rich fleeing they want to worry about it is the middle giving up.
Personally I am part time now, which keeps me below £50k. Before I was stuffing huge amounts into Pension additional voluntary contributions. Don't mind paying 28% but damned if I will pay 70% marginal rate in tax and child benefit withrawals. So by trying to get 70% off me instead of 28% they get 0%.
There are similar things happening at £100k with childcare/personal allowance cliff.
The last two years have seen inflation matching benefit rises of 10% and 8% with tax allowances. on those working (and getting much lower pay rises) to pay for it.
So people are changing sides. A huge amount of those claiming working age sickness benefits are for conditions with a subjective diagnosis (backache/mental health condition). Only 16% were turned down.
Do I blame them. No. If I had no qualifications and rented and the choice was go on the sick, get my rent paid, get a stipend, get cost of living payments, get 75% of council tax paid, pay social utility rates, get a free mobility car...
...or get an unpleasant McJob that involved being treated poorly and unsocial night shifts and having 25% more cash at the end of it if I was lucky, I'm not sure I wouldn't do the same (that is before taking into account cash in hand receipts for the former).
So tax and benefit rises are already turning net contributors into net receivers. More of the same from Labour is the path to Bankruptcy
Latest in the familiar genre of “the Tories have made things shit. So you’d better not vote Labour because they might ruin it”.
Quite the opposite. I am explaining why they are going to get the drubbing of their lives and are behind Farages lot.
However, if Labour double down on it and increase benefits and taxes further, they will go the same way in 2029. They are going to have tu implement almost Dickensian reform if they want a second term.
Its not the super rich fleeing they want to worry about it is the middle giving up.
Personally I am part time now, which keeps me below £50k. Before I was stuffing huge amounts into Pension additional voluntary contributions. Don't mind paying 28% but damned if I will pay 70% marginal rate in tax and child benefit withrawals. So by trying to get 70% off me instead of 28% they get 0%.
There are similar things happening at £100k with childcare/personal allowance cliff.
The last two years have seen inflation matching benefit rises of 10% and 8% with tax allowances. on those working (and getting much lower pay rises) to pay for it.
So people are changing sides. A huge amount of those claiming working age sickness benefits are for conditions with a subjective diagnosis (backache/mental health condition). Only 16% were turned down.
Do I blame them. No. If I had no qualifications and rented and the choice was go on the sick, get my rent paid, get a stipend, get cost of living payments, get 75% of council tax paid, pay social utility rates, get a free mobility car...
...or get an unpleasant McJob that involved being treated poorly and unsocial night shifts and having 25% more cash at the end of it if I was lucky, I'm not sure I wouldn't do the same (that is before taking into account cash in hand receipts for the former).
So tax and benefit rises are already turning net contributors into net receivers. More of the same from Labour is the path to Bankruptcy
Latest in the familiar genre of “the Tories have made things shit. So you’d better not vote Labour because they might ruin it”.
Quite the opposite. I am explaining why they are going to get the drubbing of their lives and are behind Farages lot.
However, if Labour double down on it and increase benefits and taxes further, they will go the same way in 2029. They are going to have tu implement almost Dickensian reform if they want a second term.
As I have been at pains to point out, historically if Labour do achieve a 150+ seat majority they won’t be leaving office for at least 9 years, or 10 if they go full two terms.
The right can try to console itself over what is happening but it’s flight reaction from the reality of the present situation.
Yet another match cancelled in the T20 WC. What an omnishambles.
It has been a thoroughly peculiar tournament so far, hasn’t it?
Between the unplayable pitch in NY, the seemingly constant rain interruptions, plus rain covers with hole in them, waterlogged outfields, and the upsets e.g. USA vs Pakistan, even Nepal could / should have beat SA this morning, I don't think it could have gone much worse for the organisers.
Starmer rules out CGT on primary residences for the duration of the next parliament.
But not CGT from other avenues.
Indeed. It's rather obvious at this point they are coming for capital gains in a big way. Canada did similar earlier this year, and is already seeing capital flight.
Fpt my story is fairly simple, I used to be on a high income, paying 40% on that and investing about half my net PAYE pay. Over the last decade I've accumulated seven figures in unrealised gains.
Let's assume 1,000,000 exactly for a quick calculation. At current rates that's 200k tax. Which is doable. At 40% that becomes 400k in tax. Which to avoid, you have to leave the UK for 5 years after making the disposal (preferably in a 0% jurisdiction such as Dubai.)
So the choice is to pay HMRC 400k, or spend, say, 200k on a nice 5 year holiday backpacking round the far east, and still being up 200k more than if remaining in the UK. From a personal perspective it really is a no brainer and I imagine most would be exploring the same options I currently am.
Capital is mobile, and tbh I'd rather pay a reasonable amount. Cgt at 40%+ would be one of the most punitive tax regimes in the world and a lot of people with more than a million or two in gains - think successful entrepreneurs cashing out of their businesses - will be making the same calculation.
but most people have no capital gains to tax. It's like the parent's crying about VAT on private school, not enough of you to matter.
The top 1% of Britons in income pay 30% of the tax. I believe. Be very careful what you wish for
How much of the income do they get?
It doesn’t matter if half of them fuck off. Suddenly you’ve got an ENORMOUS hole in already stretched HMG finances, and Britain is bankrupt. Bravo
I tired of rich people holding the country hostage. I say, tax them more. I'm willing to bet most of them stay put. Most people have friends and family and lives here. Uprooting your life is a huge time and emotional cost. It most cases it won't be worth the trouble. I say, bring it on.
250k UK citizens have moved to Dubai in the last few years. Its happening already.
Given that UK citizens emigrating is about 100k per year in total, you probably need to qualify "in the last few years".
Er, in the last year 532,000 people emigrated from the UK
ONS:
“1.2 million people migrated into the UK and 532,000 people emigrated from it, leaving a net migration figure of 685,000. This represents the balance of long-term migrants moving in and out of the country.”
Starmer rules out CGT on primary residences for the duration of the next parliament.
But not CGT from other avenues.
Indeed. It's rather obvious at this point they are coming for capital gains in a big way. Canada did similar earlier this year, and is already seeing capital flight.
Fpt my story is fairly simple, I used to be on a high income, paying 40% on that and investing about half my net PAYE pay. Over the last decade I've accumulated seven figures in unrealised gains.
Let's assume 1,000,000 exactly for a quick calculation. At current rates that's 200k tax. Which is doable. At 40% that becomes 400k in tax. Which to avoid, you have to leave the UK for 5 years after making the disposal (preferably in a 0% jurisdiction such as Dubai.)
So the choice is to pay HMRC 400k, or spend, say, 200k on a nice 5 year holiday backpacking round the far east, and still being up 200k more than if remaining in the UK. From a personal perspective it really is a no brainer and I imagine most would be exploring the same options I currently am.
Capital is mobile, and tbh I'd rather pay a reasonable amount. Cgt at 40%+ would be one of the most punitive tax regimes in the world and a lot of people with more than a million or two in gains - think successful entrepreneurs cashing out of their businesses - will be making the same calculation.
but most people have no capital gains to tax. It's like the parent's crying about VAT on private school, not enough of you to matter.
The top 1% of Britons in income pay 30% of the tax. I believe. Be very careful what you wish for
How much of the income do they get?
It doesn’t matter if half of them fuck off. Suddenly you’ve got an ENORMOUS hole in already stretched HMG finances, and Britain is bankrupt. Bravo
I tired of rich people holding the country hostage. I say, tax them more. I'm willing to bet most of them stay put. Most people have friends and family and lives here. Uprooting your life is a huge time and emotional cost. It most cases it won't be worth the trouble. I say, bring it on.
250k UK citizens have moved to Dubai in the last few years. Its happening already.
Given that UK citizens emigrating is about 100k per year in total, you probably need to qualify "in the last few years".
Er, in the last year 532,000 people emigrated from the UK
ONS:
“1.2 million people migrated into the UK and 532,000 people emigrated from it, leaving a net migration figure of 685,000. This represents the balance of long-term migrants moving in and out of the country.”
Exactly, and then because that's what FrancisUrquhart lead with. Just sticking to the terms of the conversation is apparently enough to make Leon dizzy and fall over.
I don’t say you were wrong I was pointing out the absurdly narrow focus of your argument. On top of 100,000 uk emigrants 400,000 others left. Who were they? How many were long term residents who actually paid a lot of tax? And how many of the trillions of incomers are going to be a net drain on the treasury, instead?
I fear the details won’t be good for UK PLC
The tax system is very harsh on writers who get big sums then very little for potentially years.
James Herriot's sons autobiography of him recounts how during the Labour 74-79 era he handed the vast majority of his book earnings to the treasury and attempted to contact the only other well earning writer who was still in the country only to find that he too had bolted.
It was iirc George Osborne who put a stop to authors being able to spread their earnings over several years
p.s. be sure to pass this back to your masters in CCHQ
Are you mad. I have already said that I will vote Reform (heart) or (God Help Me) Labour (head) to make sure the Tories lose in my seat. I am furious with them.
And I am not that new. Remember Brexit and the 6:1 bet the day before?
Its not the super rich fleeing they want to worry about it is the middle giving up.
Personally I am part time now, which keeps me below £50k. Before I was stuffing huge amounts into Pension additional voluntary contributions. Don't mind paying 28% but damned if I will pay 70% marginal rate in tax and child benefit withrawals. So by trying to get 70% off me instead of 28% they get 0%.
There are similar things happening at £100k with childcare/personal allowance cliff.
The last two years have seen inflation matching benefit rises of 10% and 8% with tax allowances. on those working (and getting much lower pay rises) to pay for it.
So people are changing sides. A huge amount of those claiming working age sickness benefits are for conditions with a subjective diagnosis (backache/mental health condition). Only 16% were turned down.
Do I blame them. No. If I had no qualifications and rented and the choice was go on the sick, get my rent paid, get a stipend, get cost of living payments, get 75% of council tax paid, pay social utility rates, get a free mobility car...
...or get an unpleasant McJob that involved being treated poorly and unsocial night shifts and having 25% more cash at the end of it if I was lucky, I'm not sure I wouldn't do the same (that is before taking into account cash in hand receipts for the former).
So tax and benefit rises are already turning net contributors into net receivers. More of the same from Labour is the path to Bankruptcy
Latest in the familiar genre of “the Tories have made things shit. So you’d better not vote Labour because they might ruin it”.
Quite the opposite. I am explaining why they are going to get the drubbing of their lives and are behind Farages lot.
However, if Labour double down on it and increase benefits and taxes further, they will go the same way in 2029. They are going to have tu implement almost Dickensian reform if they want a second term.
Good. Everyone should want a government that is not complacent and not resting on its laurels. Labour have to deliver and it would be good if they knew that.
Yet another match cancelled in the T20 WC. What an omnishambles.
It has been a thoroughly peculiar tournament so far, hasn’t it?
I was at the Bangladesh SA match earlier in the week. It was really quite great, and the organisation was generally really good (Better than any tournament I've been to before). Odd things though, like they'd not quite thought through needing more men's loos, and the free water stations were too few.
The wicket in NY was clearly a bit dubious, but it made for a fascinating match.
Cricket-wise there needs to be more opportunity to have alternate days available. I'd suggest a fallback week.
Starmer rules out CGT on primary residences for the duration of the next parliament.
But not CGT from other avenues.
Indeed. It's rather obvious at this point they are coming for capital gains in a big way. Canada did similar earlier this year, and is already seeing capital flight.
Fpt my story is fairly simple, I used to be on a high income, paying 40% on that and investing about half my net PAYE pay. Over the last decade I've accumulated seven figures in unrealised gains.
Let's assume 1,000,000 exactly for a quick calculation. At current rates that's 200k tax. Which is doable. At 40% that becomes 400k in tax. Which to avoid, you have to leave the UK for 5 years after making the disposal (preferably in a 0% jurisdiction such as Dubai.)
So the choice is to pay HMRC 400k, or spend, say, 200k on a nice 5 year holiday backpacking round the far east, and still being up 200k more than if remaining in the UK. From a personal perspective it really is a no brainer and I imagine most would be exploring the same options I currently am.
Capital is mobile, and tbh I'd rather pay a reasonable amount. Cgt at 40%+ would be one of the most punitive tax regimes in the world and a lot of people with more than a million or two in gains - think successful entrepreneurs cashing out of their businesses - will be making the same calculation.
but most people have no capital gains to tax. It's like the parent's crying about VAT on private school, not enough of you to matter.
The top 1% of Britons in income pay 30% of the tax. I believe. Be very careful what you wish for
How much of the income do they get?
It doesn’t matter if half of them fuck off. Suddenly you’ve got an ENORMOUS hole in already stretched HMG finances, and Britain is bankrupt. Bravo
I tired of rich people holding the country hostage. I say, tax them more. I'm willing to bet most of them stay put. Most people have friends and family and lives here. Uprooting your life is a huge time and emotional cost. It most cases it won't be worth the trouble. I say, bring it on.
So Britain will be able to rely on the taxes you pay, as a failed writer living on his own in a bed sit in Aberdeen shouting incoherently at motorcycles. That’s at least £6.87 a year. Should cover the NHS, no problem
Being a failed writer is a hobby. I've never sought any income for my failed writings. For actual work I'm a failed project manager. I manage failing projects or I take on well-run projects and cause them to fail. For this, I'm suitably rewarded. My total tax paid to the government last year was probably well into double figures.
If you have a failing project you'd like me to manage, please get in touch. my rates are surprisingly reasonable.
I know a chap who had this project of a hostile takeover of a next door country. Not going well. Looking for fresh ideas. Includes desk not next to window.
Is there anything more bellend-ish than boasting about your income?
Body positivity. Deliberately making yourself unhealthy, burdening the welfare state, and encouraging others to do the same. They are like smokers handing out fags to kids.
Its not the super rich fleeing they want to worry about it is the middle giving up.
Personally I am part time now, which keeps me below £50k. Before I was stuffing huge amounts into Pension additional voluntary contributions. Don't mind paying 28% but damned if I will pay 70% marginal rate in tax and child benefit withrawals. So by trying to get 70% off me instead of 28% they get 0%.
There are similar things happening at £100k with childcare/personal allowance cliff.
The last two years have seen inflation matching benefit rises of 10% and 8% with tax allowances. on those working (and getting much lower pay rises) to pay for it.
So people are changing sides. A huge amount of those claiming working age sickness benefits are for conditions with a subjective diagnosis (backache/mental health condition). Only 16% were turned down.
Do I blame them. No. If I had no qualifications and rented and the choice was go on the sick, get my rent paid, get a stipend, get cost of living payments, get 75% of council tax paid, pay social utility rates, get a free mobility car...
...or get an unpleasant McJob that involved being treated poorly and unsocial night shifts and having 25% more cash at the end of it if I was lucky, I'm not sure I wouldn't do the same (that is before taking into account cash in hand receipts for the former).
So tax and benefit rises are already turning net contributors into net receivers. More of the same from Labour is the path to Bankruptcy
Latest in the familiar genre of “the Tories have made things shit. So you’d better not vote Labour because they might ruin it”.
Quite the opposite. I am explaining why they are going to get the drubbing of their lives and are behind Farages lot.
However, if Labour double down on it and increase benefits and taxes further, they will go the same way in 2029. They are going to have tu implement almost Dickensian reform if they want a second term.
As I have been at pains to point out, historically if Labour do achieve a 150+ seat majority they won’t be leaving office for at least 9 years, or 10 if they go full two terms.
The right can try to console itself over what is happening but it’s flight reaction from the reality of the present situation.
Really? Remember all the "Tory's will be in power for a generstion" stories after they got a majority of 80 in 2019 (equivalent of over 100 on current boundaries).
See also John Rentouls Independent article posted by someone else a few posts above.
Is there anything more bellend-ish than boasting about your income?
That, together with the constant craving for status symbols, I must admit I have never fully understood.
It's nice to have a good income, and afford the things you want, and to do the things you want to do and support things close to your heart. I can't for the life of me understand the craving for other people to know about it though.
A useless article pointing out the obvious, when an interesting and unaddressed issue is how an incoming Labour government might strengthen those obviously weak foundations.
Is there anything more bellend-ish than boasting about your income?
If you’re accusing me, @Heathener started this by saying I was some lying failure who hadn’t had any success in nine decades, and was thus a sore loser etc etc
I merely set her straight. I would not otherwise have gone into details. You’re welcome
I think the crucial point was that the gambler and his assistant contrived the situation so that they had an edge, rather than the house, in what was otherwise a game of chance. They were not merely passively observing the cards (which would be the case with card-counting, another technique which casinos have to watch out for but which, I believe, is lawful.)
I assume PBers are familiar with the book (or the movie) 21, the tale of a group of MIT students who took millions in Vegas and Atlantic City by counting cards as a team.
They are part of the reason casinos now use continuous shuffle
Remember it well.
I first learned about card-counting in connection with a chess player, Larry Byrne, who used to clean up in the casinos between matches many years ago. Chess players tend to have the kind of mental skills that enables them to remember cards and calculate odds quickly. In those days, the casinos used six packs of cards per table. The MIT team demonstrated that that was nowhere near enough.
I seem to recall that when the Monaco authorities found out what the kids were up to, they made them an offer that simply couldn't be refused.
For those interesting in some cheating the casino stories, this is quite a good YouTube channel retelling some you may not of heard of.
Its not the super rich fleeing they want to worry about it is the middle giving up.
Personally I am part time now, which keeps me below £50k. Before I was stuffing huge amounts into Pension additional voluntary contributions. Don't mind paying 28% but damned if I will pay 70% marginal rate in tax and child benefit withrawals. So by trying to get 70% off me instead of 28% they get 0%.
There are similar things happening at £100k with childcare/personal allowance cliff.
The last two years have seen inflation matching benefit rises of 10% and 8% with tax allowances. on those working (and getting much lower pay rises) to pay for it.
So people are changing sides. A huge amount of those claiming working age sickness benefits are for conditions with a subjective diagnosis (backache/mental health condition). Only 16% were turned down.
Do I blame them. No. If I had no qualifications and rented and the choice was go on the sick, get my rent paid, get a stipend, get cost of living payments, get 75% of council tax paid, pay social utility rates, get a free mobility car...
...or get an unpleasant McJob that involved being treated poorly and unsocial night shifts and having 25% more cash at the end of it if I was lucky, I'm not sure I wouldn't do the same (that is before taking into account cash in hand receipts for the former).
So tax and benefit rises are already turning net contributors into net receivers. More of the same from Labour is the path to Bankruptcy
Latest in the familiar genre of “the Tories have made things shit. So you’d better not vote Labour because they might ruin it”.
Quite the opposite. I am explaining why they are going to get the drubbing of their lives and are behind Farages lot.
However, if Labour double down on it and increase benefits and taxes further, they will go the same way in 2029. They are going to have tu implement almost Dickensian reform if they want a second term.
As I have been at pains to point out, historically if Labour do achieve a 150+ seat majority they won’t be leaving office for at least 9 years, or 10 if they go full two terms.
The right can try to console itself over what is happening but it’s flight reaction from the reality of the present situation.
Historical precedents won't apply because of the way the parties are realigning. It doesn't take much of a swing to go from this to NOM, and then it doesn't take much more movement before Labour are going the same way as the Tories and the Lib Dems and Reform or its successor dominate the political map.
If the current trends continue, a result like this isn't out of the question, however it would only take a swing of a further 2% to Reform to wipe out the Labour majority entirely so it would be very volatile.
Starmer rules out CGT on primary residences for the duration of the next parliament.
But not CGT from other avenues.
Indeed. It's rather obvious at this point they are coming for capital gains in a big way. Canada did similar earlier this year, and is already seeing capital flight.
Fpt my story is fairly simple, I used to be on a high income, paying 40% on that and investing about half my net PAYE pay. Over the last decade I've accumulated seven figures in unrealised gains.
Let's assume 1,000,000 exactly for a quick calculation. At current rates that's 200k tax. Which is doable. At 40% that becomes 400k in tax. Which to avoid, you have to leave the UK for 5 years after making the disposal (preferably in a 0% jurisdiction such as Dubai.)
So the choice is to pay HMRC 400k, or spend, say, 200k on a nice 5 year holiday backpacking round the far east, and still being up 200k more than if remaining in the UK. From a personal perspective it really is a no brainer and I imagine most would be exploring the same options I currently am.
Capital is mobile, and tbh I'd rather pay a reasonable amount. Cgt at 40%+ would be one of the most punitive tax regimes in the world and a lot of people with more than a million or two in gains - think successful entrepreneurs cashing out of their businesses - will be making the same calculation.
Except there are lifetime allowances for businessmen selling their business. Granted the £1m at 10% isn’t the £10m it used to be but it’s better than nothing
Also while you can up sticks it’s a lot harder for other people
What makes you think that allowance will survive the next budget?
The thing that gets me is a 40% cgt hits people like me who already paid 40% on our work incomes, invested the rest, and did well on the markets.
When what you really want to be going for is the "born with millions and living off the family trust fund" crowd who are far wealthier than I will ever be.
I worked 12+ hours days at my corporate drone job for years, spent little and invested my money wisely. A 1%'er I am most certainly not.
As I said in the previous thread, it's the ladder curve in action. Tax my investments at 20% and you get a few hundred thousand for UK plc's coffers, tax them at 40% and it's in my best interest to get out entirely.
And at the end of the day, we are all governed by rational self interest.
Go away then. Go be morose in Dubai or the UAE or Saudi or Monaco. You've done your bit and taken your share. Hand your passport in and live a new unmoored life as a tax exile unencumbered by social norms. You could even meet up with our resident shit and chat about the wrongs of CGT.
Just don't come back if you need a new hip or your liver stops working or a Gulf sheikh acting in rational self interest has confiscated your cash.
I’ve probably paid more in tax to the UK than you’ve earned in total
So I’ll do what I like, within the law
By your own account you're already something of a tax exile ?
But agreed, it's rather counterproductive to berate you for that.
Equally, if you do become a permanent exile, your ongoing stake in our politics (not that it will, or should bother you) is seriously diminished.
The last point is true to an extent, I can actually feel myself caring less about the UK and about UK politics. Its a definite thing
However I will still care quite a lot because I have lots of friends and family in the UK - most of all my elder daughter
I want what’s best for them so I will still be emotionally invested
Your predicament reminds me of the White Russians when Lenin took over.
A lot of them came here - to Odessa - funnily enough. Then they moved on
The life of an exile can often be sad, morose, lonely, drunken. That’s why I’ve been experimenting with it for the last year or two. Spending more than 50% of my time abroad
Turns out I rather like it, sometimes I absolutely love it. But I only like it because I can keep moving. Seeing things and meeting people. I would become that sad lonely drunk if I was marooned on Phuket for 12 months out of 12
So I intend to keep moving and only keep the lightest foothold in some useful hub that I can call a kind of home for the few weeks/months I am there
It’s not a life for everyone or even most people. True nomadism. Most people like a nest
Yes, choose the life you want to the extent you are able to do so. Everyone does that. But not everyone alternates between romanticising their choice and making out they're being forced into it. That seems to be a you thing.
When Boris won a large majority in 2019 he was squatting like a toad over British politics and commencing a thousand year reign. If Starmer wins a similar majority this time he’ll be presiding over a castle built of sand.
Either pundits have learned from the last 5 years, or they are exhibiting their own unconscious biases about “the natural party of government” vs “the other party”.
Polling due tonight looks like at least Savanta for the Sunday Telegraph teased with 'let's just say there's been some movement' (was Reforms lowest and one of the Tories and Labour better ones last time) Should be a Deltapoll in the Mail, huge Lab lead last time Opinium in the Observer will be their first to constituency prompt in this GE
No polls for 48 hours during an election campaign.
Polling due tonight looks like at least Savanta for the Sunday Telegraph teased with 'let's just say there's been some movement' (was Reforms lowest and one of the Tories and Labour better ones last time) Should be a Deltapoll in the Mail, huge Lab lead last time Opinium in the Observer will be their first to constituency prompt in this GE
No polls for 48 hours during an election campaign.
Imagine if there were no polls allowed between the dissolution of parliament and the exit poll. Or maybe just one, half way through. It would make election night much more exciting.
Next government should do that. Ban opinion polls during elections.
Its not the super rich fleeing they want to worry about it is the middle giving up.
Personally I am part time now, which keeps me below £50k. Before I was stuffing huge amounts into Pension additional voluntary contributions. Don't mind paying 28% but damned if I will pay 70% marginal rate in tax and child benefit withrawals. So by trying to get 70% off me instead of 28% they get 0%.
There are similar things happening at £100k with childcare/personal allowance cliff.
The last two years have seen inflation matching benefit rises of 10% and 8% with tax allowances. on those working (and getting much lower pay rises) to pay for it.
So people are changing sides. A huge amount of those claiming working age sickness benefits are for conditions with a subjective diagnosis (backache/mental health condition). Only 16% were turned down.
Do I blame them. No. If I had no qualifications and rented and the choice was go on the sick, get my rent paid, get a stipend, get cost of living payments, get 75% of council tax paid, pay social utility rates, get a free mobility car...
...or get an unpleasant McJob that involved being treated poorly and unsocial night shifts and having 25% more cash at the end of it if I was lucky, I'm not sure I wouldn't do the same (that is before taking into account cash in hand receipts for the former).
So tax and benefit rises are already turning net contributors into net receivers. More of the same from Labour is the path to Bankruptcy
Latest in the familiar genre of “the Tories have made things shit. So you’d better not vote Labour because they might ruin it”.
Quite the opposite. I am explaining why they are going to get the drubbing of their lives and are behind Farages lot.
However, if Labour double down on it and increase benefits and taxes further, they will go the same way in 2029. They are going to have tu implement almost Dickensian reform if they want a second term.
As I have been at pains to point out, historically if Labour do achieve a 150+ seat majority they won’t be leaving office for at least 9 years, or 10 if they go full two terms.
The right can try to console itself over what is happening but it’s flight reaction from the reality of the present situation.
Historical precedents won't apply because of the way the parties are realigning. It doesn't take much of a swing to go from this to NOM, and then it doesn't take much more movement before Labour are going the same way as the Tories and the Lib Dems and Reform or its successor dominate the political map.
If the current trends continue, a result like this isn't out of the question, however it would only take a swing of a further 2% to Reform to wipe out the Labour majority entirely so it would be very volatile.
It's a great prediction, except that Tory 14%, Reform 25% bears no relation whatsoever to the events coming on 4th July. GIGO.
Thanks to those who said I am a CCHQ plant. It has made my day. I will inform one or two friends who will find it amusing.
I've been here on and off since roughly 2005 but have not posted since 2016 as I had too much going on in my life.
Having rejoined this morning, the weather has been rubbish and I have spent so much time reading the site I've remembered one why I stopped posting before lol, PB addiction.
Starmer rules out CGT on primary residences for the duration of the next parliament.
But not CGT from other avenues.
Indeed. It's rather obvious at this point they are coming for capital gains in a big way. Canada did similar earlier this year, and is already seeing capital flight.
Fpt my story is fairly simple, I used to be on a high income, paying 40% on that and investing about half my net PAYE pay. Over the last decade I've accumulated seven figures in unrealised gains.
Let's assume 1,000,000 exactly for a quick calculation. At current rates that's 200k tax. Which is doable. At 40% that becomes 400k in tax. Which to avoid, you have to leave the UK for 5 years after making the disposal (preferably in a 0% jurisdiction such as Dubai.)
So the choice is to pay HMRC 400k, or spend, say, 200k on a nice 5 year holiday backpacking round the far east, and still being up 200k more than if remaining in the UK. From a personal perspective it really is a no brainer and I imagine most would be exploring the same options I currently am.
Capital is mobile, and tbh I'd rather pay a reasonable amount. Cgt at 40%+ would be one of the most punitive tax regimes in the world and a lot of people with more than a million or two in gains - think successful entrepreneurs cashing out of their businesses - will be making the same calculation.
Except there are lifetime allowances for businessmen selling their business. Granted the £1m at 10% isn’t the £10m it used to be but it’s better than nothing
Also while you can up sticks it’s a lot harder for other people
What makes you think that allowance will survive the next budget?
The thing that gets me is a 40% cgt hits people like me who already paid 40% on our work incomes, invested the rest, and did well on the markets.
When what you really want to be going for is the "born with millions and living off the family trust fund" crowd who are far wealthier than I will ever be.
I worked 12+ hours days at my corporate drone job for years, spent little and invested my money wisely. A 1%'er I am most certainly not.
As I said in the previous thread, it's the ladder curve in action. Tax my investments at 20% and you get a few hundred thousand for UK plc's coffers, tax them at 40% and it's in my best interest to get out entirely.
And at the end of the day, we are all governed by rational self interest.
Go away then. Go be morose in Dubai or the UAE or Saudi or Monaco. You've done your bit and taken your share. Hand your passport in and live a new unmoored life as a tax exile unencumbered by social norms. You could even meet up with our resident shit and chat about the wrongs of CGT.
Just don't come back if you need a new hip or your liver stops working or a Gulf sheikh acting in rational self interest has confiscated your cash.
I’ve probably paid more in tax to the UK than you’ve earned in total
So I’ll do what I like, within the law
By your own account you're already something of a tax exile ?
But agreed, it's rather counterproductive to berate you for that.
Equally, if you do become a permanent exile, your ongoing stake in our politics (not that it will, or should bother you) is seriously diminished.
The last point is true to an extent, I can actually feel myself caring less about the UK and about UK politics. Its a definite thing
However I will still care quite a lot because I have lots of friends and family in the UK - most of all my elder daughter
I want what’s best for them so I will still be emotionally invested
Your predicament reminds me of the White Russians when Lenin took over.
A lot of them came here - to Odessa - funnily enough. Then they moved on
The life of an exile can often be sad, morose, lonely, drunken. That’s why I’ve been experimenting with it for the last year or two. Spending more than 50% of my time abroad
Turns out I rather like it, sometimes I absolutely love it. But I only like it because I can keep moving. Seeing things and meeting people. I would become that sad lonely drunk if I was marooned on Phuket for 12 months out of 12
So I intend to keep moving and only keep the lightest foothold in some useful hub that I can call a kind of home for the few weeks/months I am there
It’s not a life for everyone or even most people. True nomadism. Most people like a nest
Yes, choose the life you want to the extent you are able to do so. Everyone does that. But not everyone alternates between romanticising their choice and making out they're being forced into it. That seems to be a you thing.
But I’m not alternating. I’m saying both factors are in play. And they are - it’s a mix
Indeed if I said otherwise you’d accuse me of lying. And rightly. If I said “oh I’m off around the world because I’m a dreamy nomad” you’d say “nah, you’re just avoiding uk tax and weather”. And if I said “ugh I hate uk tax and labour weather, I’m off” you’d scoff and say “you spend all your life abroad anyway, you’re just trying to turn it into a political point”
See?
So I’m being truthful. Two things are at work at once
Its not the super rich fleeing they want to worry about it is the middle giving up.
Personally I am part time now, which keeps me below £50k. Before I was stuffing huge amounts into Pension additional voluntary contributions. Don't mind paying 28% but damned if I will pay 70% marginal rate in tax and child benefit withrawals. So by trying to get 70% off me instead of 28% they get 0%.
There are similar things happening at £100k with childcare/personal allowance cliff.
The last two years have seen inflation matching benefit rises of 10% and 8% with tax allowances. on those working (and getting much lower pay rises) to pay for it.
So people are changing sides. A huge amount of those claiming working age sickness benefits are for conditions with a subjective diagnosis (backache/mental health condition). Only 16% were turned down.
Do I blame them. No. If I had no qualifications and rented and the choice was go on the sick, get my rent paid, get a stipend, get cost of living payments, get 75% of council tax paid, pay social utility rates, get a free mobility car...
...or get an unpleasant McJob that involved being treated poorly and unsocial night shifts and having 25% more cash at the end of it if I was lucky, I'm not sure I wouldn't do the same (that is before taking into account cash in hand receipts for the former).
So tax and benefit rises are already turning net contributors into net receivers. More of the same from Labour is the path to Bankruptcy
Latest in the familiar genre of “the Tories have made things shit. So you’d better not vote Labour because they might ruin it”.
Quite the opposite. I am explaining why they are going to get the drubbing of their lives and are behind Farages lot.
However, if Labour double down on it and increase benefits and taxes further, they will go the same way in 2029. They are going to have tu implement almost Dickensian reform if they want a second term.
As I have been at pains to point out, historically if Labour do achieve a 150+ seat majority they won’t be leaving office for at least 9 years, or 10 if they go full two terms.
The right can try to console itself over what is happening but it’s flight reaction from the reality of the present situation.
Historical precedents won't apply because of the way the parties are realigning. It doesn't take much of a swing to go from this to NOM, and then it doesn't take much more movement before Labour are going the same way as the Tories and the Lib Dems and Reform or its successor dominate the political map.
If the current trends continue, a result like this isn't out of the question, however it would only take a swing of a further 2% to Reform to wipe out the Labour majority entirely so it would be very volatile.
Yes but those are just made up figures, and even those have a Labour majority!
Its not the super rich fleeing they want to worry about it is the middle giving up.
Personally I am part time now, which keeps me below £50k. Before I was stuffing huge amounts into Pension additional voluntary contributions. Don't mind paying 28% but damned if I will pay 70% marginal rate in tax and child benefit withrawals. So by trying to get 70% off me instead of 28% they get 0%.
There are similar things happening at £100k with childcare/personal allowance cliff.
The last two years have seen inflation matching benefit rises of 10% and 8% with tax allowances. on those working (and getting much lower pay rises) to pay for it.
So people are changing sides. A huge amount of those claiming working age sickness benefits are for conditions with a subjective diagnosis (backache/mental health condition). Only 16% were turned down.
Do I blame them. No. If I had no qualifications and rented and the choice was go on the sick, get my rent paid, get a stipend, get cost of living payments, get 75% of council tax paid, pay social utility rates, get a free mobility car...
...or get an unpleasant McJob that involved being treated poorly and unsocial night shifts and having 25% more cash at the end of it if I was lucky, I'm not sure I wouldn't do the same (that is before taking into account cash in hand receipts for the former).
So tax and benefit rises are already turning net contributors into net receivers. More of the same from Labour is the path to Bankruptcy
Latest in the familiar genre of “the Tories have made things shit. So you’d better not vote Labour because they might ruin it”.
Quite the opposite. I am explaining why they are going to get the drubbing of their lives and are behind Farages lot.
However, if Labour double down on it and increase benefits and taxes further, they will go the same way in 2029. They are going to have tu implement almost Dickensian reform if they want a second term.
As I have been at pains to point out, historically if Labour do achieve a 150+ seat majority they won’t be leaving office for at least 9 years, or 10 if they go full two terms.
The right can try to console itself over what is happening but it’s flight reaction from the reality of the present situation.
Really? Remember all the "Tory's will be in power for a generstion" stories after they got a majority of 80 in 2019 (equivalent of over 100 on current boundaries).
See also John Rentouls Independent article posted by someone else a few posts above.
The problem that the Tories had/have is the same Labour will run into. Their advisors. This strange third layer between ministers and the civil service really serves nobody's interest. All it does is to introduce two awkward relationships in the place of one, and hinder communication.
When Boris won a large majority in 2019 he was squatting like a toad over British politics and commencing a thousand year reign. If Starmer wins a similar majority this time he’ll be presiding over a castle built of sand.
Either pundits have learned from the last 5 years, or they are exhibiting their own unconscious biases about “the natural party of government” vs “the other party”.
Robert Peston is making the very same analysis however
“It is all very well for Starmer to set expectations relatively low for what a Labour government could achieve in the short term. But he is telling British people he represents “change”, which does not sound modest.
If in fact Starmer delivers more of the same, his apotheosis may be just as short as Johnson’s.”
Polling due tonight looks like at least Savanta for the Sunday Telegraph teased with 'let's just say there's been some movement' (was Reforms lowest and one of the Tories and Labour better ones last time) Should be a Deltapoll in the Mail, huge Lab lead last time Opinium in the Observer will be their first to constituency prompt in this GE
No polls for 48 hours during an election campaign.
Imagine if there were no polls allowed between the dissolution of parliament and the exit poll. Or maybe just one, half way through. It would make election night much more exciting.
Next government should do that. Ban opinion polls during elections.
The only problem with that is that a particular party could spread false rumours about how it was, say, overtaking another party, and there wouldn't be any solid evidence to counteract it.
Polling due tonight looks like at least Savanta for the Sunday Telegraph teased with 'let's just say there's been some movement' (was Reforms lowest and one of the Tories and Labour better ones last time) Should be a Deltapoll in the Mail, huge Lab lead last time Opinium in the Observer will be their first to constituency prompt in this GE
No polls for 48 hours during an election campaign.
Imagine if there were no polls allowed between the dissolution of parliament and the exit poll. Or maybe just one, half way through. It would make election night much more exciting.
Next government should do that. Ban opinion polls during elections.
They have undoubtedly become a factor in how the whole campaign unfolds. The case for a ban rests on the excellent idea that elections should be about shining ideals of policy and statecraft.
It would be a total disaster. At the moment the statistical flow of data is to some degree directed by the need for accuracy. Banning polls would lead to rumour mongering and (unthinkable) LD bar charts. It would be impossible to ban the relevant data collecting so in the end the parties, and other powerful individuals would have information the rest of us did not.
Thanks to those who said I am a CCHQ plant. It has made my day. I will inform one or two friends who will find it amusing.
I've been here on and off since roughly 2005 but have not posted since 2016 as I had too much going on in my life.
Having rejoined this morning, the weather has been rubbish and I have spent so much time reading the site I've remembered one why I stopped posting before lol, PB addiction.
Polling due tonight looks like at least Savanta for the Sunday Telegraph teased with 'let's just say there's been some movement' (was Reforms lowest and one of the Tories and Labour better ones last time) Should be a Deltapoll in the Mail, huge Lab lead last time Opinium in the Observer will be their first to constituency prompt in this GE
No polls for 48 hours during an election campaign.
Imagine if there were no polls allowed between the dissolution of parliament and the exit poll. Or maybe just one, half way through. It would make election night much more exciting.
Next government should do that. Ban opinion polls during elections.
Or the polling companies can only release one a week, all on a Saturday at 3pm and we get a political geek version of Match of the Day on a Saturday night. Amol Rajan hosting with John Curtice and a guest pundit with a final average league table at the end.
The better off have to be soaked, because someone has to pay for the upkeep of our increasingly elderly and decrepit population, and you're not going to get much more by squeezing and squeezing the wages of low and middle income earners until they scream for mercy. That said, you can understand the butt hurt being expressed by better off people who claim that higher taxes on their investments are simply punishment for working hard. That's not the intention of whatever tax rises or allowance reductions are likely coming after the election, even if it feels like it to them. We can't afford to give in to special pleading on the subject, but perhaps we can afford to give them a bit of space to vent rather than simply telling them to make sure that the door hits them full in the arse on the way out?
The bigger problem in all of this is that any revenue raising measures that do come will, ultimately, be insufficiently broad based and fail to raise enough cash to start to deal with all of our problems, because they are almost bound to ignore residential property. Crudely put, the Theresa May experience taught us that the only way to deal with the gigantic health and social care problem is to tax houses more and, simultaneously, you can't tax houses more because the population, especially the expensive to keep old people who also control most of the property wealth, will revolt if you try to do it. This problem seems, to me, to be fundamentally insoluble in a democratic system.
It's simply the laffer curve in action.
I was expecting to make disposals next year which would incur £300k-ish in cgt at 20%
Which is more tax than many will pay in their entire life, and I was quite happy to do it.
If as predicted that becomes 40-45% next year, I can bugger off on holiday for five years, spending fifty grand a year wibbling about and having fun not working. And _still_ have more money left over than if I had paid the UK cgt bill at 40%
Economics is simply rational choice theory. I want to pay tax and contribute to the UK economy and indeed I have paid more in tax than most people ever will.
I'm talking about being willing to pay 300k in tax next year. How much do some of the bedsit posters in here pay in tax, if they pay any at all? 10k a year? I'm prepared to pay 30 years of sad bedsit Farooq poster tax in a single year. And more again the year after. At 20%
At 40% it's worth my while becoming a listless grumpy gammony tax exile working on my tan in Pattaya. But I don't want that to happen. I want the government to tax me a sensible amount, and I want to pay a sensible amount.
Anyone else in this thread want to own up to being happy to pay 300k in tax next year?
No?
I hope some of the people in this thread telling me to eff off and pay nothing then, enjoy it when I actually eff off and pay nothing.
Well said
And then you’re accused of being “unpatriotic” by feckless losers who have probably been a net drain on HMRC all their wanky lives. Fuck em
The "patriot" ribbing is to you not him and it's because you make a massive deal of how Britain and British is in your very bones and makes your chest puff out with pride.
When Boris won a large majority in 2019 he was squatting like a toad over British politics and commencing a thousand year reign. If Starmer wins a similar majority this time he’ll be presiding over a castle built of sand.
Either pundits have learned from the last 5 years, or they are exhibiting their own unconscious biases about “the natural party of government” vs “the other party”.
Robert Peston is making the very same analysis however
“It is all very well for Starmer to set expectations relatively low for what a Labour government could achieve in the short term. But he is telling British people he represents “change”, which does not sound modest.
If in fact Starmer delivers more of the same, his apotheosis may be just as short as Johnson’s.”
Its not the super rich fleeing they want to worry about it is the middle giving up.
Personally I am part time now, which keeps me below £50k. Before I was stuffing huge amounts into Pension additional voluntary contributions. Don't mind paying 28% but damned if I will pay 70% marginal rate in tax and child benefit withrawals. So by trying to get 70% off me instead of 28% they get 0%.
There are similar things happening at £100k with childcare/personal allowance cliff.
The last two years have seen inflation matching benefit rises of 10% and 8% with tax allowances. on those working (and getting much lower pay rises) to pay for it.
So people are changing sides. A huge amount of those claiming working age sickness benefits are for conditions with a subjective diagnosis (backache/mental health condition). Only 16% were turned down.
Do I blame them. No. If I had no qualifications and rented and the choice was go on the sick, get my rent paid, get a stipend, get cost of living payments, get 75% of council tax paid, pay social utility rates, get a free mobility car...
...or get an unpleasant McJob that involved being treated poorly and unsocial night shifts and having 25% more cash at the end of it if I was lucky, I'm not sure I wouldn't do the same (that is before taking into account cash in hand receipts for the former).
So tax and benefit rises are already turning net contributors into net receivers. More of the same from Labour is the path to Bankruptcy
Latest in the familiar genre of “the Tories have made things shit. So you’d better not vote Labour because they might ruin it”.
Quite the opposite. I am explaining why they are going to get the drubbing of their lives and are behind Farages lot.
However, if Labour double down on it and increase benefits and taxes further, they will go the same way in 2029. They are going to have tu implement almost Dickensian reform if they want a second term.
As I have been at pains to point out, historically if Labour do achieve a 150+ seat majority they won’t be leaving office for at least 9 years, or 10 if they go full two terms.
The right can try to console itself over what is happening but it’s flight reaction from the reality of the present situation.
Historical precedents won't apply because of the way the parties are realigning. It doesn't take much of a swing to go from this to NOM, and then it doesn't take much more movement before Labour are going the same way as the Tories and the Lib Dems and Reform or its successor dominate the political map.
If the current trends continue, a result like this isn't out of the question, however it would only take a swing of a further 2% to Reform to wipe out the Labour majority entirely so it would be very volatile.
Yes but those are just made up figures, and even those have a Labour majority!
The point is to illustrate that not all big majorities are equal. One achieved like that would leave Labour vulnerable to very small swings.
The better off have to be soaked, because someone has to pay for the upkeep of our increasingly elderly and decrepit population, and you're not going to get much more by squeezing and squeezing the wages of low and middle income earners until they scream for mercy. That said, you can understand the butt hurt being expressed by better off people who claim that higher taxes on their investments are simply punishment for working hard. That's not the intention of whatever tax rises or allowance reductions are likely coming after the election, even if it feels like it to them. We can't afford to give in to special pleading on the subject, but perhaps we can afford to give them a bit of space to vent rather than simply telling them to make sure that the door hits them full in the arse on the way out?
The bigger problem in all of this is that any revenue raising measures that do come will, ultimately, be insufficiently broad based and fail to raise enough cash to start to deal with all of our problems, because they are almost bound to ignore residential property. Crudely put, the Theresa May experience taught us that the only way to deal with the gigantic health and social care problem is to tax houses more and, simultaneously, you can't tax houses more because the population, especially the expensive to keep old people who also control most of the property wealth, will revolt if you try to do it. This problem seems, to me, to be fundamentally insoluble in a democratic system.
It's simply the laffer curve in action.
I was expecting to make disposals next year which would incur £300k-ish in cgt at 20%
Which is more tax than many will pay in their entire life, and I was quite happy to do it.
If as predicted that becomes 40-45% next year, I can bugger off on holiday for five years, spending fifty grand a year wibbling about and having fun not working. And _still_ have more money left over than if I had paid the UK cgt bill at 40%
Economics is simply rational choice theory. I want to pay tax and contribute to the UK economy and indeed I have paid more in tax than most people ever will.
I'm talking about being willing to pay 300k in tax next year. How much do some of the bedsit posters in here pay in tax, if they pay any at all? 10k a year? I'm prepared to pay 30 years of sad bedsit Farooq poster tax in a single year. And more again the year after. At 20%
At 40% it's worth my while becoming a listless grumpy gammony tax exile working on my tan in Pattaya. But I don't want that to happen. I want the government to tax me a sensible amount, and I want to pay a sensible amount.
Anyone else in this thread want to own up to being happy to pay 300k in tax next year?
No?
I hope some of the people in this thread telling me to eff off and pay nothing then, enjoy it when I actually eff off and pay nothing.
Well said
And then you’re accused of being “unpatriotic” by feckless losers who have probably been a net drain on HMRC all their wanky lives. Fuck em
The "patriot" ribbing is to you not him and it's because you make a massive deal of how Britain and British is in your very bones and makes your chest puff out with pride.
When Boris won a large majority in 2019 he was squatting like a toad over British politics and commencing a thousand year reign. If Starmer wins a similar majority this time he’ll be presiding over a castle built of sand.
Either pundits have learned from the last 5 years, or they are exhibiting their own unconscious biases about “the natural party of government” vs “the other party”.
Robert Peston is making the very same analysis however
“It is all very well for Starmer to set expectations relatively low for what a Labour government could achieve in the short term. But he is telling British people he represents “change”, which does not sound modest.
If in fact Starmer delivers more of the same, his apotheosis may be just as short as Johnson’s.”
It depends on whether people really want capital C change, or just a change in government. Public opinion didn’t seem to like Truss’s change, and resistance even to things like ULEZ or every new housing development in the country suggests not everyone is crying out for revolution of either the right or left wing kind.
We’ll find out soon enough. If Tories are really scapegoats and everyone’s ready to cheer up once they’re safely in the desert, then we may settle into a period akin to Merkel’s CDU hegemony. If they’re in a febrile state of expectation then instead we’ll see something like what’s happened in Germany since Scholz’s SPD took power. Starmer is quite a Germanic politician in many ways.
Its not the super rich fleeing they want to worry about it is the middle giving up.
Personally I am part time now, which keeps me below £50k. Before I was stuffing huge amounts into Pension additional voluntary contributions. Don't mind paying 28% but damned if I will pay 70% marginal rate in tax and child benefit withrawals. So by trying to get 70% off me instead of 28% they get 0%.
There are similar things happening at £100k with childcare/personal allowance cliff.
The last two years have seen inflation matching benefit rises of 10% and 8% with tax allowances. on those working (and getting much lower pay rises) to pay for it.
So people are changing sides. A huge amount of those claiming working age sickness benefits are for conditions with a subjective diagnosis (backache/mental health condition). Only 16% were turned down.
Do I blame them. No. If I had no qualifications and rented and the choice was go on the sick, get my rent paid, get a stipend, get cost of living payments, get 75% of council tax paid, pay social utility rates, get a free mobility car...
...or get an unpleasant McJob that involved being treated poorly and unsocial night shifts and having 25% more cash at the end of it if I was lucky, I'm not sure I wouldn't do the same (that is before taking into account cash in hand receipts for the former).
So tax and benefit rises are already turning net contributors into net receivers. More of the same from Labour is the path to Bankruptcy
Latest in the familiar genre of “the Tories have made things shit. So you’d better not vote Labour because they might ruin it”.
Quite the opposite. I am explaining why they are going to get the drubbing of their lives and are behind Farages lot.
However, if Labour double down on it and increase benefits and taxes further, they will go the same way in 2029. They are going to have tu implement almost Dickensian reform if they want a second term.
As I have been at pains to point out, historically if Labour do achieve a 150+ seat majority they won’t be leaving office for at least 9 years, or 10 if they go full two terms.
The right can try to console itself over what is happening but it’s flight reaction from the reality of the present situation.
Historical precedents won't apply because of the way the parties are realigning. It doesn't take much of a swing to go from this to NOM, and then it doesn't take much more movement before Labour are going the same way as the Tories and the Lib Dems and Reform or its successor dominate the political map.
If the current trends continue, a result like this isn't out of the question, however it would only take a swing of a further 2% to Reform to wipe out the Labour majority entirely so it would be very volatile.
Yes but those are just made up figures, and even those have a Labour majority!
The point is to illustrate that not all big majorities are equal. One achieved like that would leave Labour vulnerable to very small swings.
It's not going to happen, but you could make a fortune on the Spreads by buying Reform if you really believed it.
I think it quite likely that they won't win a single seat.
When Boris won a large majority in 2019 he was squatting like a toad over British politics and commencing a thousand year reign. If Starmer wins a similar majority this time he’ll be presiding over a castle built of sand.
Either pundits have learned from the last 5 years, or they are exhibiting their own unconscious biases about “the natural party of government” vs “the other party”.
Robert Peston is making the very same analysis however
“It is all very well for Starmer to set expectations relatively low for what a Labour government could achieve in the short term. But he is telling British people he represents “change”, which does not sound modest.
If in fact Starmer delivers more of the same, his apotheosis may be just as short as Johnson’s.”
Not apotheosis. Starmer has not been elevated to divine status, he isn't divine material any more than Attlee or John Major. He must be thinking of Taylor Swift or Mr Trump or Mr Toad of Farage Hall.
Starmer rules out CGT on primary residences for the duration of the next parliament.
But not CGT from other avenues.
Indeed. It's rather obvious at this point they are coming for capital gains in a big way. Canada did similar earlier this year, and is already seeing capital flight.
Fpt my story is fairly simple, I used to be on a high income, paying 40% on that and investing about half my net PAYE pay. Over the last decade I've accumulated seven figures in unrealised gains.
Let's assume 1,000,000 exactly for a quick calculation. At current rates that's 200k tax. Which is doable. At 40% that becomes 400k in tax. Which to avoid, you have to leave the UK for 5 years after making the disposal (preferably in a 0% jurisdiction such as Dubai.)
So the choice is to pay HMRC 400k, or spend, say, 200k on a nice 5 year holiday backpacking round the far east, and still being up 200k more than if remaining in the UK. From a personal perspective it really is a no brainer and I imagine most would be exploring the same options I currently am.
Capital is mobile, and tbh I'd rather pay a reasonable amount. Cgt at 40%+ would be one of the most punitive tax regimes in the world and a lot of people with more than a million or two in gains - think successful entrepreneurs cashing out of their businesses - will be making the same calculation.
but most people have no capital gains to tax. It's like the parent's crying about VAT on private school, not enough of you to matter.
The top 1% of Britons in income pay 30% of the tax. I believe. Be very careful what you wish for
How much of the income do they get?
It doesn’t matter if half of them fuck off. Suddenly you’ve got an ENORMOUS hole in already stretched HMG finances, and Britain is bankrupt. Bravo
I tired of rich people holding the country hostage. I say, tax them more. I'm willing to bet most of them stay put. Most people have friends and family and lives here. Uprooting your life is a huge time and emotional cost. It most cases it won't be worth the trouble. I say, bring it on.
250k UK citizens have moved to Dubai in the past decade and the numbers have been increasing year on year. These aren't poor people doing this, to go and work slave labour jobs in construction. Its happening already.
Its actually something that is not getting talked about during immigration debate. 1+ million people in, ~0.5 million out. Its record in, and record out. Who are these people, how skilled are they, why are they leaving? I think a good chunk will be students, but would be interesting to know the break down.
If I were to guess at what the Brits in Dubai are doing:
1. Entrepreneurs - people running their own businesses here. 2. Construction - mostly project managers 3. Estate agents 4. Teachers 5. Airlines - pilots and cabin crew, senior engineers 6. Senior salaried managers in local businesses - accountants, lawyers, IT pros etc.
When Boris won a large majority in 2019 he was squatting like a toad over British politics and commencing a thousand year reign. If Starmer wins a similar majority this time he’ll be presiding over a castle built of sand.
Either pundits have learned from the last 5 years, or they are exhibiting their own unconscious biases about “the natural party of government” vs “the other party”.
Robert Peston is making the very same analysis however
“It is all very well for Starmer to set expectations relatively low for what a Labour government could achieve in the short term. But he is telling British people he represents “change”, which does not sound modest.
If in fact Starmer delivers more of the same, his apotheosis may be just as short as Johnson’s.”
Rentoul and Peston have stunning levels of insight. None of this had ever occurred to anyone else at all.
Seems to be a very important point that folk who don't support a Labour government need to make to those do. In the mistaken belief that it will come as some kind of revelation to us all.
When Boris won a large majority in 2019 he was squatting like a toad over British politics and commencing a thousand year reign. If Starmer wins a similar majority this time he’ll be presiding over a castle built of sand.
Either pundits have learned from the last 5 years, or they are exhibiting their own unconscious biases about “the natural party of government” vs “the other party”.
Robert Peston is making the very same analysis however
“It is all very well for Starmer to set expectations relatively low for what a Labour government could achieve in the short term. But he is telling British people he represents “change”, which does not sound modest.
If in fact Starmer delivers more of the same, his apotheosis may be just as short as Johnson’s.”
It depends on whether people really want capital C change, or just a change in government. Public opinion didn’t seem to like Truss’s change, and resistance even to things like ULEZ or every new housing development in the country suggests not everyone is crying out for revolution of either the right or left wing kind.
We’ll find out soon enough. If Tories are really scapegoats and everyone’s ready to cheer up once they’re safely in the desert, then we may settle into a period akin to Merkel’s CDU hegemony. If they’re in a febrile state of expectation then instead we’ll see something like what’s happened in Germany since Scholz’s SPD took power. Starmer is quite a Germanic politician in many ways.
My hunch is that Starmer will get a serious honeymoon. 18 months of decent polling. The relief will be so great
Only then will he fall, but the fall will be brutal and quite fast
I sincerely hope I am wrong and he turns the UK into a sunny paradise
The tax system is very harsh on writers who get big sums then very little for potentially years.
James Herriot's sons autobiography of him recounts how during the Labour 74-79 era he handed the vast majority of his book earnings to the treasury and attempted to contact the only other well earning writer who was still in the country only to find that he too had bolted.
Is there anything stopping an author publishing through a sole-ownership ltd company & paying themselves from company funds over time to spread out their income?
Is there anything more bellend-ish than boasting about your income?
Yes, the woodlice like @OllyT@Tres@murali_s and @Northern_Al crawling out from under their decomposing logs to cry class war over it, and express schadenfreude at anyone affected.
Is there anything more bellend-ish than boasting about your income?
Yes, the woodlice like @OllyT@Tres@murali_s and @Northern_Al crawling out from under their decomposing logs to cry class war over it, and express schadenfreude at anyone affected.
Starmer rules out CGT on primary residences for the duration of the next parliament.
But not CGT from other avenues.
Indeed. It's rather obvious at this point they are coming for capital gains in a big way. Canada did similar earlier this year, and is already seeing capital flight.
Fpt my story is fairly simple, I used to be on a high income, paying 40% on that and investing about half my net PAYE pay. Over the last decade I've accumulated seven figures in unrealised gains.
Let's assume 1,000,000 exactly for a quick calculation. At current rates that's 200k tax. Which is doable. At 40% that becomes 400k in tax. Which to avoid, you have to leave the UK for 5 years after making the disposal (preferably in a 0% jurisdiction such as Dubai.)
So the choice is to pay HMRC 400k, or spend, say, 200k on a nice 5 year holiday backpacking round the far east, and still being up 200k more than if remaining in the UK. From a personal perspective it really is a no brainer and I imagine most would be exploring the same options I currently am.
Capital is mobile, and tbh I'd rather pay a reasonable amount. Cgt at 40%+ would be one of the most punitive tax regimes in the world and a lot of people with more than a million or two in gains - think successful entrepreneurs cashing out of their businesses - will be making the same calculation.
but most people have no capital gains to tax. It's like the parent's crying about VAT on private school, not enough of you to matter.
The top 1% of Britons in income pay 30% of the tax. I believe. Be very careful what you wish for
How much of the income do they get?
It doesn’t matter if half of them fuck off. Suddenly you’ve got an ENORMOUS hole in already stretched HMG finances, and Britain is bankrupt. Bravo
I tired of rich people holding the country hostage. I say, tax them more. I'm willing to bet most of them stay put. Most people have friends and family and lives here. Uprooting your life is a huge time and emotional cost. It most cases it won't be worth the trouble. I say, bring it on.
250k UK citizens have moved to Dubai in the past decade and the numbers have been increasing year on year. These aren't poor people doing this, to go and work slave labour jobs in construction. Its happening already.
Its actually something that is not getting talked about during immigration debate. 1+ million people in, ~0.5 million out. Its record in, and record out. Who are these people, how skilled are they, why are they leaving? I think a good chunk will be students, but would be interesting to know the break down.
If I were to guess at what the Brits in Dubai are doing:
1. Entrepreneurs - people running their own businesses here. 2. Construction - mostly project managers 3. Estate agents 4. Teachers 5. Airlines - pilots and cabin crew, senior engineers 6. Senior salaried managers in local businesses - accountants, lawyers, IT pros etc.
You missed out drug dealers to the new Costa del Crime.
Its not the super rich fleeing they want to worry about it is the middle giving up.
Personally I am part time now, which keeps me below £50k. Before I was stuffing huge amounts into Pension additional voluntary contributions. Don't mind paying 28% but damned if I will pay 70% marginal rate in tax and child benefit withrawals. So by trying to get 70% off me instead of 28% they get 0%.
There are similar things happening at £100k with childcare/personal allowance cliff.
The last two years have seen inflation matching benefit rises of 10% and 8% with tax allowances. on those working (and getting much lower pay rises) to pay for it.
So people are changing sides. A huge amount of those claiming working age sickness benefits are for conditions with a subjective diagnosis (backache/mental health condition). Only 16% were turned down.
Do I blame them. No. If I had no qualifications and rented and the choice was go on the sick, get my rent paid, get a stipend, get cost of living payments, get 75% of council tax paid, pay social utility rates, get a free mobility car...
...or get an unpleasant McJob that involved being treated poorly and unsocial night shifts and having 25% more cash at the end of it if I was lucky, I'm not sure I wouldn't do the same (that is before taking into account cash in hand receipts for the former).
So tax and benefit rises are already turning net contributors into net receivers. More of the same from Labour is the path to Bankruptcy
This has been the most amazing thing about a Tory government. What the core problem with UK PLC, productivity, what things have Tories done...reduced CGT threshold and entrepreneurial relief on CGT from first business sale, introduce pension pot limit on tax relief, NI rises, introduced new NI++, and continued £50k cliff edge, £100k cliff edge,.....all great for growth and improved productivity, not.
Indeed, and the expectation for a Labour government would be to make every one of those worse.
Starmer rules out CGT on primary residences for the duration of the next parliament.
But not CGT from other avenues.
Indeed. It's rather obvious at this point they are coming for capital gains in a big way. Canada did similar earlier this year, and is already seeing capital flight.
Fpt my story is fairly simple, I used to be on a high income, paying 40% on that and investing about half my net PAYE pay. Over the last decade I've accumulated seven figures in unrealised gains.
Let's assume 1,000,000 exactly for a quick calculation. At current rates that's 200k tax. Which is doable. At 40% that becomes 400k in tax. Which to avoid, you have to leave the UK for 5 years after making the disposal (preferably in a 0% jurisdiction such as Dubai.)
So the choice is to pay HMRC 400k, or spend, say, 200k on a nice 5 year holiday backpacking round the far east, and still being up 200k more than if remaining in the UK. From a personal perspective it really is a no brainer and I imagine most would be exploring the same options I currently am.
Capital is mobile, and tbh I'd rather pay a reasonable amount. Cgt at 40%+ would be one of the most punitive tax regimes in the world and a lot of people with more than a million or two in gains - think successful entrepreneurs cashing out of their businesses - will be making the same calculation.
but most people have no capital gains to tax. It's like the parent's crying about VAT on private school, not enough of you to matter.
The top 1% of Britons in income pay 30% of the tax. I believe. Be very careful what you wish for
How much of the income do they get?
It doesn’t matter if half of them fuck off. Suddenly you’ve got an ENORMOUS hole in already stretched HMG finances, and Britain is bankrupt. Bravo
I tired of rich people holding the country hostage. I say, tax them more. I'm willing to bet most of them stay put. Most people have friends and family and lives here. Uprooting your life is a huge time and emotional cost. It most cases it won't be worth the trouble. I say, bring it on.
250k UK citizens have moved to Dubai in the last few years. Its happening already.
Given that UK citizens emigrating is about 100k per year in total, you probably need to qualify "in the last few years".
Er, in the last year 532,000 people emigrated from the UK
ONS:
“1.2 million people migrated into the UK and 532,000 people emigrated from it, leaving a net migration figure of 685,000. This represents the balance of long-term migrants moving in and out of the country.”
Exactly, and then because that's what FrancisUrquhart lead with. Just sticking to the terms of the conversation is apparently enough to make Leon dizzy and fall over.
I don’t say you were wrong I was pointing out the absurdly narrow focus of your argument. On top of 100,000 uk emigrants 400,000 others left. Who were they? How many were long term residents who actually paid a lot of tax? And how many of the trillions of incomers are going to be a net drain on the treasury, instead?
I fear the details won’t be good for UK PLC
The tax system is very harsh on writers who get big sums then very little for potentially years.
James Herriot's sons autobiography of him recounts how during the Labour 74-79 era he handed the vast majority of his book earnings to the treasury and attempted to contact the only other well earning writer who was still in the country only to find that he too had bolted.
Is there anything stopping an author publishing through a sole-ownership ltd company & paying themselves from company funds over time to spread out their income?
It’s not remotely as advantageous as it was and it comes with a load more paperwork. I looked at it and then thought Nah
Voters find Starmer’s Labour more patriotic than Tories
Rishi Sunak was scored second lowest in a list of politicians when it came to perceptions about patriotism
Voters think that Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party is more proud to be British than the Conservatives under Rishi Sunak, polling has found ahead of the general election.
Mr Sunak was scored second lowest in a list of politicians when it came to perceptions about patriotism, with only Jeremy Corbyn viewed as less patriotic than the Prime Minister.
The research by the UCL Policy Lab and the More in Common think tank also found that the public think that politicians are less patriotic today than they used to be.
Last week, More in Common polled 2,037 adults in Great Britain on the subject of patriotism.
Respondents were asked to think about a number of political parties under various recent leaders and “to what extent would you say they are proud or embarrassed to be British”.
Two in five (40 per cent) thought that the Labour Party under Sir Keir is proud to be British, with 13 per cent thinking it is embarrassed.
For the Conservatives under Mr Sunak, 24 per cent felt that the party is proud to be British, with 28 per cent believing the Tories under his leadership are embarrassed to be British.
The Tories under Mr Sunak also scored below the Conservative Party under Boris Johnson, and Reform UK under Nigel Farage.
Thirty-six per cent said that Reform under Mr Farage was proud to be British, with 21 per cent believing them to be embarrassed. Thirty one per cent felt the Tories under Mr Johnson were proud to be British, compared to to the same amount who thought the party was embarrassed to be British.
Its not the super rich fleeing they want to worry about it is the middle giving up.
Personally I am part time now, which keeps me below £50k. Before I was stuffing huge amounts into Pension additional voluntary contributions. Don't mind paying 28% but damned if I will pay 70% marginal rate in tax and child benefit withrawals. So by trying to get 70% off me instead of 28% they get 0%.
There are similar things happening at £100k with childcare/personal allowance cliff.
The last two years have seen inflation matching benefit rises of 10% and 8% with tax allowances. on those working (and getting much lower pay rises) to pay for it.
So people are changing sides. A huge amount of those claiming working age sickness benefits are for conditions with a subjective diagnosis (backache/mental health condition). Only 16% were turned down.
Do I blame them. No. If I had no qualifications and rented and the choice was go on the sick, get my rent paid, get a stipend, get cost of living payments, get 75% of council tax paid, pay social utility rates, get a free mobility car...
...or get an unpleasant McJob that involved being treated poorly and unsocial night shifts and having 25% more cash at the end of it if I was lucky, I'm not sure I wouldn't do the same (that is before taking into account cash in hand receipts for the former).
So tax and benefit rises are already turning net contributors into net receivers. More of the same from Labour is the path to Bankruptcy
Latest in the familiar genre of “the Tories have made things shit. So you’d better not vote Labour because they might ruin it”.
Quite the opposite. I am explaining why they are going to get the drubbing of their lives and are behind Farages lot.
However, if Labour double down on it and increase benefits and taxes further, they will go the same way in 2029. They are going to have tu implement almost Dickensian reform if they want a second term.
As I have been at pains to point out, historically if Labour do achieve a 150+ seat majority they won’t be leaving office for at least 9 years, or 10 if they go full two terms.
The right can try to console itself over what is happening but it’s flight reaction from the reality of the present situation.
Historical precedents won't apply because of the way the parties are realigning. It doesn't take much of a swing to go from this to NOM, and then it doesn't take much more movement before Labour are going the same way as the Tories and the Lib Dems and Reform or its successor dominate the political map.
If the current trends continue, a result like this isn't out of the question, however it would only take a swing of a further 2% to Reform to wipe out the Labour majority entirely so it would be very volatile.
Yes but those are just made up figures, and even those have a Labour majority!
The point is to illustrate that not all big majorities are equal. One achieved like that would leave Labour vulnerable to very small swings.
It's not going to happen, but you could make a fortune on the Spreads by buying Reform if you really believed it.
I think it quite likely that they won't win a single seat.
Has the possibility been discussed on here of Reform winning 2 or 3 seats but Nigel Farage isn’t one of them?
Its not the super rich fleeing they want to worry about it is the middle giving up.
Personally I am part time now, which keeps me below £50k. Before I was stuffing huge amounts into Pension additional voluntary contributions. Don't mind paying 28% but damned if I will pay 70% marginal rate in tax and child benefit withrawals. So by trying to get 70% off me instead of 28% they get 0%.
There are similar things happening at £100k with childcare/personal allowance cliff.
The last two years have seen inflation matching benefit rises of 10% and 8% with tax allowances. on those working (and getting much lower pay rises) to pay for it.
So people are changing sides. A huge amount of those claiming working age sickness benefits are for conditions with a subjective diagnosis (backache/mental health condition). Only 16% were turned down.
Do I blame them. No. If I had no qualifications and rented and the choice was go on the sick, get my rent paid, get a stipend, get cost of living payments, get 75% of council tax paid, pay social utility rates, get a free mobility car...
...or get an unpleasant McJob that involved being treated poorly and unsocial night shifts and having 25% more cash at the end of it if I was lucky, I'm not sure I wouldn't do the same (that is before taking into account cash in hand receipts for the former).
So tax and benefit rises are already turning net contributors into net receivers. More of the same from Labour is the path to Bankruptcy
Latest in the familiar genre of “the Tories have made things shit. So you’d better not vote Labour because they might ruin it”.
Quite the opposite. I am explaining why they are going to get the drubbing of their lives and are behind Farages lot.
However, if Labour double down on it and increase benefits and taxes further, they will go the same way in 2029. They are going to have tu implement almost Dickensian reform if they want a second term.
As I have been at pains to point out, historically if Labour do achieve a 150+ seat majority they won’t be leaving office for at least 9 years, or 10 if they go full two terms.
The right can try to console itself over what is happening but it’s flight reaction from the reality of the present situation.
Historical precedents won't apply because of the way the parties are realigning. It doesn't take much of a swing to go from this to NOM, and then it doesn't take much more movement before Labour are going the same way as the Tories and the Lib Dems and Reform or its successor dominate the political map.
If the current trends continue, a result like this isn't out of the question, however it would only take a swing of a further 2% to Reform to wipe out the Labour majority entirely so it would be very volatile.
It's a great prediction, except that Tory 14%, Reform 25% bears no relation whatsoever to the events coming on 4th July. GIGO.
Lab 34% is just about possible.
Buying Labour under 43% on Betfair seems a pretty good bet, and a better return at 1.35 in 3 weeks than anything else.
Thanks to those who said I am a CCHQ plant. It has made my day. I will inform one or two friends who will find it amusing.
I've been here on and off since roughly 2005 but have not posted since 2016 as I had too much going on in my life.
Having rejoined this morning, the weather has been rubbish and I have spent so much time reading the site I've remembered one why I stopped posting before lol, PB addiction.
Did you used to be Paul from Bedfordshire?
Yes.
A good few familiar names but some have vanished. Including OGH sadly.
Its not the super rich fleeing they want to worry about it is the middle giving up.
Personally I am part time now, which keeps me below £50k. Before I was stuffing huge amounts into Pension additional voluntary contributions. Don't mind paying 28% but damned if I will pay 70% marginal rate in tax and child benefit withrawals. So by trying to get 70% off me instead of 28% they get 0%.
There are similar things happening at £100k with childcare/personal allowance cliff.
The last two years have seen inflation matching benefit rises of 10% and 8% with tax allowances. on those working (and getting much lower pay rises) to pay for it.
So people are changing sides. A huge amount of those claiming working age sickness benefits are for conditions with a subjective diagnosis (backache/mental health condition). Only 16% were turned down.
Do I blame them. No. If I had no qualifications and rented and the choice was go on the sick, get my rent paid, get a stipend, get cost of living payments, get 75% of council tax paid, pay social utility rates, get a free mobility car...
...or get an unpleasant McJob that involved being treated poorly and unsocial night shifts and having 25% more cash at the end of it if I was lucky, I'm not sure I wouldn't do the same (that is before taking into account cash in hand receipts for the former).
So tax and benefit rises are already turning net contributors into net receivers. More of the same from Labour is the path to Bankruptcy
Latest in the familiar genre of “the Tories have made things shit. So you’d better not vote Labour because they might ruin it”.
Quite the opposite. I am explaining why they are going to get the drubbing of their lives and are behind Farages lot.
However, if Labour double down on it and increase benefits and taxes further, they will go the same way in 2029. They are going to have tu implement almost Dickensian reform if they want a second term.
As I have been at pains to point out, historically if Labour do achieve a 150+ seat majority they won’t be leaving office for at least 9 years, or 10 if they go full two terms.
The right can try to console itself over what is happening but it’s flight reaction from the reality of the present situation.
The counter argument to that is (as you have frequently said) the benchmark election for 2024 isn’t 2019, as that was an unusual election. You could make the case for 2024. Governing party been in too long, then. Covid and Ukraine exacerbating perceived and real Brexit harms. A listless right that has split in two. Who is to say that 2028/29 won’t also be unusual?
Its not the super rich fleeing they want to worry about it is the middle giving up.
Personally I am part time now, which keeps me below £50k. Before I was stuffing huge amounts into Pension additional voluntary contributions. Don't mind paying 28% but damned if I will pay 70% marginal rate in tax and child benefit withrawals. So by trying to get 70% off me instead of 28% they get 0%.
There are similar things happening at £100k with childcare/personal allowance cliff.
The last two years have seen inflation matching benefit rises of 10% and 8% with tax allowances. on those working (and getting much lower pay rises) to pay for it.
So people are changing sides. A huge amount of those claiming working age sickness benefits are for conditions with a subjective diagnosis (backache/mental health condition). Only 16% were turned down.
Do I blame them. No. If I had no qualifications and rented and the choice was go on the sick, get my rent paid, get a stipend, get cost of living payments, get 75% of council tax paid, pay social utility rates, get a free mobility car...
...or get an unpleasant McJob that involved being treated poorly and unsocial night shifts and having 25% more cash at the end of it if I was lucky, I'm not sure I wouldn't do the same (that is before taking into account cash in hand receipts for the former).
So tax and benefit rises are already turning net contributors into net receivers. More of the same from Labour is the path to Bankruptcy
Latest in the familiar genre of “the Tories have made things shit. So you’d better not vote Labour because they might ruin it”.
Quite the opposite. I am explaining why they are going to get the drubbing of their lives and are behind Farages lot.
However, if Labour double down on it and increase benefits and taxes further, they will go the same way in 2029. They are going to have tu implement almost Dickensian reform if they want a second term.
As I have been at pains to point out, historically if Labour do achieve a 150+ seat majority they won’t be leaving office for at least 9 years, or 10 if they go full two terms.
The right can try to console itself over what is happening but it’s flight reaction from the reality of the present situation.
Historical precedents won't apply because of the way the parties are realigning. It doesn't take much of a swing to go from this to NOM, and then it doesn't take much more movement before Labour are going the same way as the Tories and the Lib Dems and Reform or its successor dominate the political map.
If the current trends continue, a result like this isn't out of the question, however it would only take a swing of a further 2% to Reform to wipe out the Labour majority entirely so it would be very volatile.
Yes but those are just made up figures, and even those have a Labour majority!
The point is to illustrate that not all big majorities are equal. One achieved like that would leave Labour vulnerable to very small swings.
It's not going to happen, but you could make a fortune on the Spreads by buying Reform if you really believed it.
I think it quite likely that they won't win a single seat.
Has the possibility been discussed on here of Reform winning 2 or 3 seats but Nigel Farage isn’t one of them?
Lee Anderson and a couple of absolute barm pots for kicks
When Boris won a large majority in 2019 he was squatting like a toad over British politics and commencing a thousand year reign. If Starmer wins a similar majority this time he’ll be presiding over a castle built of sand.
Either pundits have learned from the last 5 years, or they are exhibiting their own unconscious biases about “the natural party of government” vs “the other party”.
Starmer has a realistic chance of not being a castle of sand. This would take very high quality leadership, greater honesty and quality of explanation to the public about what government is about and up to, visible competence and humility, consistency, and a decent balance in the party of unity and discipline along with actual discussion and diversity.
It's a small though real chance. The nature of internal party politics, the media and the great British public would all indicate against it. I think he will give it a go; which is why this Tory is voting for him.
Starmer rules out CGT on primary residences for the duration of the next parliament.
But not CGT from other avenues.
Indeed. It's rather obvious at this point they are coming for capital gains in a big way. Canada did similar earlier this year, and is already seeing capital flight.
Fpt my story is fairly simple, I used to be on a high income, paying 40% on that and investing about half my net PAYE pay. Over the last decade I've accumulated seven figures in unrealised gains.
Let's assume 1,000,000 exactly for a quick calculation. At current rates that's 200k tax. Which is doable. At 40% that becomes 400k in tax. Which to avoid, you have to leave the UK for 5 years after making the disposal (preferably in a 0% jurisdiction such as Dubai.)
So the choice is to pay HMRC 400k, or spend, say, 200k on a nice 5 year holiday backpacking round the far east, and still being up 200k more than if remaining in the UK. From a personal perspective it really is a no brainer and I imagine most would be exploring the same options I currently am.
Capital is mobile, and tbh I'd rather pay a reasonable amount. Cgt at 40%+ would be one of the most punitive tax regimes in the world and a lot of people with more than a million or two in gains - think successful entrepreneurs cashing out of their businesses - will be making the same calculation.
Except there are lifetime allowances for businessmen selling their business. Granted the £1m at 10% isn’t the £10m it used to be but it’s better than nothing
Also while you can up sticks it’s a lot harder for other people
What makes you think that allowance will survive the next budget?
The thing that gets me is a 40% cgt hits people like me who already paid 40% on our work incomes, invested the rest, and did well on the markets.
When what you really want to be going for is the "born with millions and living off the family trust fund" crowd who are far wealthier than I will ever be.
I worked 12+ hours days at my corporate drone job for years, spent little and invested my money wisely. A 1%'er I am most certainly not.
As I said in the previous thread, it's the ladder curve in action. Tax my investments at 20% and you get a few hundred thousand for UK plc's coffers, tax them at 40% and it's in my best interest to get out entirely.
And at the end of the day, we are all governed by rational self interest.
Go away then. Go be morose in Dubai or the UAE or Saudi or Monaco. You've done your bit and taken your share. Hand your passport in and live a new unmoored life as a tax exile unencumbered by social norms. You could even meet up with our resident shit and chat about the wrongs of CGT.
Just don't come back if you need a new hip or your liver stops working or a Gulf sheikh acting in rational self interest has confiscated your cash.
I’ve probably paid more in tax to the UK than you’ve earned in total
So I’ll do what I like, within the law
By your own account you're already something of a tax exile ?
But agreed, it's rather counterproductive to berate you for that.
Equally, if you do become a permanent exile, your ongoing stake in our politics (not that it will, or should bother you) is seriously diminished.
The last point is true to an extent, I can actually feel myself caring less about the UK and about UK politics. Its a definite thing
However I will still care quite a lot because I have lots of friends and family in the UK - most of all my elder daughter
I want what’s best for them so I will still be emotionally invested
Your predicament reminds me of the White Russians when Lenin took over.
A lot of them came here - to Odessa - funnily enough. Then they moved on
The life of an exile can often be sad, morose, lonely, drunken. That’s why I’ve been experimenting with it for the last year or two. Spending more than 50% of my time abroad
Turns out I rather like it, sometimes I absolutely love it. But I only like it because I can keep moving. Seeing things and meeting people. I would become that sad lonely drunk if I was marooned on Phuket for 12 months out of 12
So I intend to keep moving and only keep the lightest foothold in some useful hub that I can call a kind of home for the few weeks/months I am there
It’s not a life for everyone or even most people. True nomadism. Most people like a nest
Yes, choose the life you want to the extent you are able to do so. Everyone does that. But not everyone alternates between romanticising their choice and making out they're being forced into it. That seems to be a you thing.
But I’m not alternating. I’m saying both factors are in play. And they are - it’s a mix
Indeed if I said otherwise you’d accuse me of lying. And rightly. If I said “oh I’m off around the world because I’m a dreamy nomad” you’d say “nah, you’re just avoiding uk tax and weather”. And if I said “ugh I hate uk tax and labour weather, I’m off” you’d scoff and say “you spend all your life abroad anyway, you’re just trying to turn it into a political point”
See?
So I’m being truthful. Two things are at work at once
Ok well we'll just get on with a decade of national renewal and you can observe from afar hoping it goes wrong and cheering on the hard right. Everybody happy.
Its not the super rich fleeing they want to worry about it is the middle giving up.
Personally I am part time now, which keeps me below £50k. Before I was stuffing huge amounts into Pension additional voluntary contributions. Don't mind paying 28% but damned if I will pay 70% marginal rate in tax and child benefit withrawals. So by trying to get 70% off me instead of 28% they get 0%.
There are similar things happening at £100k with childcare/personal allowance cliff.
The last two years have seen inflation matching benefit rises of 10% and 8% with tax allowances. on those working (and getting much lower pay rises) to pay for it.
So people are changing sides. A huge amount of those claiming working age sickness benefits are for conditions with a subjective diagnosis (backache/mental health condition). Only 16% were turned down.
Do I blame them. No. If I had no qualifications and rented and the choice was go on the sick, get my rent paid, get a stipend, get cost of living payments, get 75% of council tax paid, pay social utility rates, get a free mobility car...
...or get an unpleasant McJob that involved being treated poorly and unsocial night shifts and having 25% more cash at the end of it if I was lucky, I'm not sure I wouldn't do the same (that is before taking into account cash in hand receipts for the former).
So tax and benefit rises are already turning net contributors into net receivers. More of the same from Labour is the path to Bankruptcy
Latest in the familiar genre of “the Tories have made things shit. So you’d better not vote Labour because they might ruin it”.
Quite the opposite. I am explaining why they are going to get the drubbing of their lives and are behind Farages lot.
However, if Labour double down on it and increase benefits and taxes further, they will go the same way in 2029. They are going to have tu implement almost Dickensian reform if they want a second term.
As I have been at pains to point out, historically if Labour do achieve a 150+ seat majority they won’t be leaving office for at least 9 years, or 10 if they go full two terms.
The right can try to console itself over what is happening but it’s flight reaction from the reality of the present situation.
Historical precedents won't apply because of the way the parties are realigning. It doesn't take much of a swing to go from this to NOM, and then it doesn't take much more movement before Labour are going the same way as the Tories and the Lib Dems and Reform or its successor dominate the political map.
If the current trends continue, a result like this isn't out of the question, however it would only take a swing of a further 2% to Reform to wipe out the Labour majority entirely so it would be very volatile.
Yes but those are just made up figures, and even those have a Labour majority!
The point is to illustrate that not all big majorities are equal. One achieved like that would leave Labour vulnerable to very small swings.
But, it's a point that many on here don't want to engage with.
Its not the super rich fleeing they want to worry about it is the middle giving up.
Personally I am part time now, which keeps me below £50k. Before I was stuffing huge amounts into Pension additional voluntary contributions. Don't mind paying 28% but damned if I will pay 70% marginal rate in tax and child benefit withrawals. So by trying to get 70% off me instead of 28% they get 0%.
There are similar things happening at £100k with childcare/personal allowance cliff.
The last two years have seen inflation matching benefit rises of 10% and 8% with tax allowances. on those working (and getting much lower pay rises) to pay for it.
So people are changing sides. A huge amount of those claiming working age sickness benefits are for conditions with a subjective diagnosis (backache/mental health condition). Only 16% were turned down.
Do I blame them. No. If I had no qualifications and rented and the choice was go on the sick, get my rent paid, get a stipend, get cost of living payments, get 75% of council tax paid, pay social utility rates, get a free mobility car...
...or get an unpleasant McJob that involved being treated poorly and unsocial night shifts and having 25% more cash at the end of it if I was lucky, I'm not sure I wouldn't do the same (that is before taking into account cash in hand receipts for the former).
So tax and benefit rises are already turning net contributors into net receivers. More of the same from Labour is the path to Bankruptcy
This has been the most amazing thing about a Tory government. What the core problem with UK PLC, productivity, what things have Tories done...reduced CGT threshold and entrepreneurial relief on CGT from first business sale, introduce pension pot limit on tax relief, NI rises, introduced new NI++, and continued £50k cliff edge, £100k cliff edge,.....all great for growth and improved productivity, not.
Indeed, and the expectation for a Labour government would be to make every one of those worse.
We heard a lof talk of people moving abroad in the run up to 1997 too. Its a familiar scare story that the right wing parties like to run.
Anyone who did missed out on a long period of economic growth with taxes unchanged, at least until the aftermath of the GFC.
Worth noting too that under Conservative plans tax take goes up every year of the next parliament.
Thanks to those who said I am a CCHQ plant. It has made my day. I will inform one or two friends who will find it amusing.
I've been here on and off since roughly 2005 but have not posted since 2016 as I had too much going on in my life.
Having rejoined this morning, the weather has been rubbish and I have spent so much time reading the site I've remembered one why I stopped posting before lol, PB addiction.
Did you used to be Paul from Bedfordshire?
Yes.
A good few familiar names but some have vanished. Including OGH sadly.
Thanks to those who said I am a CCHQ plant. It has made my day. I will inform one or two friends who will find it amusing.
I've been here on and off since roughly 2005 but have not posted since 2016 as I had too much going on in my life.
Having rejoined this morning, the weather has been rubbish and I have spent so much time reading the site I've remembered one why I stopped posting before lol, PB addiction.
Did you used to be Paul from Bedfordshire?
Yes.
A good few familiar names but some have vanished. Including OGH sadly.
Welcome back. 😀
Thank You.
I am 8 years older. I would like to think I am a little wiser
Meanwhile the large scale pattern continues to flirt heavily (more than flirt, practically reaching to get its coat) with warmer settled weather at the end of June.
The evolution modelled is remarkably like June 1995. As has been the first half of the month.
1995 was the year Britain fully turned the corner from the early 90s recession and started to look and feel seriously optimistic. Peak Britpop, warmest driest summer in a generation, economy firing, London swinging again.
Yet another match cancelled in the T20 WC. What an omnishambles.
Would never happen in England in June.
We haven't had any word of a delayed toss, but with the covers on it seems unlikely we'll start on time.
The guardian live blog is saying toss is delayed and there will be showers through the day so it will be a bit on/off.
If England go out only having two completed matches, then it’s an absolute joke.
It’s not exactly ideal when trying to break a new market and the whole competition loses matches, results and teams because they can’t consider extra rain days or play the tournament in a dry season or dry areas.
Its not the super rich fleeing they want to worry about it is the middle giving up.
Personally I am part time now, which keeps me below £50k. Before I was stuffing huge amounts into Pension additional voluntary contributions. Don't mind paying 28% but damned if I will pay 70% marginal rate in tax and child benefit withrawals. So by trying to get 70% off me instead of 28% they get 0%.
There are similar things happening at £100k with childcare/personal allowance cliff.
The last two years have seen inflation matching benefit rises of 10% and 8% with tax allowances. on those working (and getting much lower pay rises) to pay for it.
So people are changing sides. A huge amount of those claiming working age sickness benefits are for conditions with a subjective diagnosis (backache/mental health condition). Only 16% were turned down.
Do I blame them. No. If I had no qualifications and rented and the choice was go on the sick, get my rent paid, get a stipend, get cost of living payments, get 75% of council tax paid, pay social utility rates, get a free mobility car...
...or get an unpleasant McJob that involved being treated poorly and unsocial night shifts and having 25% more cash at the end of it if I was lucky, I'm not sure I wouldn't do the same (that is before taking into account cash in hand receipts for the former).
So tax and benefit rises are already turning net contributors into net receivers. More of the same from Labour is the path to Bankruptcy
Latest in the familiar genre of “the Tories have made things shit. So you’d better not vote Labour because they might ruin it”.
Quite the opposite. I am explaining why they are going to get the drubbing of their lives and are behind Farages lot.
However, if Labour double down on it and increase benefits and taxes further, they will go the same way in 2029. They are going to have tu implement almost Dickensian reform if they want a second term.
As I have been at pains to point out, historically if Labour do achieve a 150+ seat majority they won’t be leaving office for at least 9 years, or 10 if they go full two terms.
The right can try to console itself over what is happening but it’s flight reaction from the reality of the present situation.
Historical precedents won't apply because of the way the parties are realigning. It doesn't take much of a swing to go from this to NOM, and then it doesn't take much more movement before Labour are going the same way as the Tories and the Lib Dems and Reform or its successor dominate the political map.
If the current trends continue, a result like this isn't out of the question, however it would only take a swing of a further 2% to Reform to wipe out the Labour majority entirely so it would be very volatile.
Yes but those are just made up figures, and even those have a Labour majority!
The point is to illustrate that not all big majorities are equal. One achieved like that would leave Labour vulnerable to very small swings.
It's not going to happen, but you could make a fortune on the Spreads by buying Reform if you really believed it.
I think it quite likely that they won't win a single seat.
Has the possibility been discussed on here of Reform winning 2 or 3 seats but Nigel Farage isn’t one of them?
I think that very possible. Not only do many Tories dislike Farage, in Clacton there is a very obvious Stop Farage Candidate. It's the only seat in the UK where I would vote Conservative, and I am not the only one thinking that.
Even in 2015 at the height of UKIP mania, Carswell had only a modest majority and was well known locally as a constituency MP. Now Watling has that advantage.
Its not the super rich fleeing they want to worry about it is the middle giving up.
Personally I am part time now, which keeps me below £50k. Before I was stuffing huge amounts into Pension additional voluntary contributions. Don't mind paying 28% but damned if I will pay 70% marginal rate in tax and child benefit withrawals. So by trying to get 70% off me instead of 28% they get 0%.
There are similar things happening at £100k with childcare/personal allowance cliff.
The last two years have seen inflation matching benefit rises of 10% and 8% with tax allowances. on those working (and getting much lower pay rises) to pay for it.
So people are changing sides. A huge amount of those claiming working age sickness benefits are for conditions with a subjective diagnosis (backache/mental health condition). Only 16% were turned down.
Do I blame them. No. If I had no qualifications and rented and the choice was go on the sick, get my rent paid, get a stipend, get cost of living payments, get 75% of council tax paid, pay social utility rates, get a free mobility car...
...or get an unpleasant McJob that involved being treated poorly and unsocial night shifts and having 25% more cash at the end of it if I was lucky, I'm not sure I wouldn't do the same (that is before taking into account cash in hand receipts for the former).
So tax and benefit rises are already turning net contributors into net receivers. More of the same from Labour is the path to Bankruptcy
This has been the most amazing thing about a Tory government. What the core problem with UK PLC, productivity, what things have Tories done...reduced CGT threshold and entrepreneurial relief on CGT from first business sale, introduce pension pot limit on tax relief, NI rises, introduced new NI++, and continued £50k cliff edge, £100k cliff edge,.....all great for growth and improved productivity, not.
Indeed, and the expectation for a Labour government would be to make every one of those worse.
We heard a lof talk of people moving abroad in the run up to 1997 too. Its a familiar scare story that the right wing parties like to run.
Anyone who did missed out on a long period of economic growth with taxes unchanged, at least until the aftermath of the GFC.
Worth noting too that under Conservative plans tax take goes up every year of the next parliament.
In 1997 nobody was talking about doubling taxes on capital at the next budget.
Imagine if it was mooted -and not denied- that the higher rate of income tax was going to go from 40% this year to 80% next. It might cause some consternation.
I might even stick around to pay 25% cgt. But 20% to 40% overnight makes it makes it worth my while to get out. And I'm only a poor wage slave with a mil or two as an investment portfolio. The calculation becomes even more obvious for the uber-rich.
Voters find Starmer’s Labour more patriotic than Tories
Rishi Sunak was scored second lowest in a list of politicians when it came to perceptions about patriotism
Voters think that Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party is more proud to be British than the Conservatives under Rishi Sunak, polling has found ahead of the general election.
Mr Sunak was scored second lowest in a list of politicians when it came to perceptions about patriotism, with only Jeremy Corbyn viewed as less patriotic than the Prime Minister.
The research by the UCL Policy Lab and the More in Common think tank also found that the public think that politicians are less patriotic today than they used to be.
Last week, More in Common polled 2,037 adults in Great Britain on the subject of patriotism.
Respondents were asked to think about a number of political parties under various recent leaders and “to what extent would you say they are proud or embarrassed to be British”.
Two in five (40 per cent) thought that the Labour Party under Sir Keir is proud to be British, with 13 per cent thinking it is embarrassed.
For the Conservatives under Mr Sunak, 24 per cent felt that the party is proud to be British, with 28 per cent believing the Tories under his leadership are embarrassed to be British.
The Tories under Mr Sunak also scored below the Conservative Party under Boris Johnson, and Reform UK under Nigel Farage.
Thirty-six per cent said that Reform under Mr Farage was proud to be British, with 21 per cent believing them to be embarrassed. Thirty one per cent felt the Tories under Mr Johnson were proud to be British, compared to to the same amount who thought the party was embarrassed to be British.
Even before DDgate many on the right including Rishi have a very weird concept of patriotism at the moment. The UK is simultaneously an overly woke, lazy, crime ridden cesspit full of people who don't even speak proper and also the best place to live in the world. If anyone else than them says a word against the country they are a traitor.
Starmer rules out CGT on primary residences for the duration of the next parliament.
But not CGT from other avenues.
Indeed. It's rather obvious at this point they are coming for capital gains in a big way. Canada did similar earlier this year, and is already seeing capital flight.
Fpt my story is fairly simple, I used to be on a high income, paying 40% on that and investing about half my net PAYE pay. Over the last decade I've accumulated seven figures in unrealised gains.
Let's assume 1,000,000 exactly for a quick calculation. At current rates that's 200k tax. Which is doable. At 40% that becomes 400k in tax. Which to avoid, you have to leave the UK for 5 years after making the disposal (preferably in a 0% jurisdiction such as Dubai.)
So the choice is to pay HMRC 400k, or spend, say, 200k on a nice 5 year holiday backpacking round the far east, and still being up 200k more than if remaining in the UK. From a personal perspective it really is a no brainer and I imagine most would be exploring the same options I currently am.
Capital is mobile, and tbh I'd rather pay a reasonable amount. Cgt at 40%+ would be one of the most punitive tax regimes in the world and a lot of people with more than a million or two in gains - think successful entrepreneurs cashing out of their businesses - will be making the same calculation.
but most people have no capital gains to tax. It's like the parent's crying about VAT on private school, not enough of you to matter.
The top 1% of Britons in income pay 30% of the tax. I believe. Be very careful what you wish for
How much of the income do they get?
It doesn’t matter if half of them fuck off. Suddenly you’ve got an ENORMOUS hole in already stretched HMG finances, and Britain is bankrupt. Bravo
I tired of rich people holding the country hostage. I say, tax them more. I'm willing to bet most of them stay put. Most people have friends and family and lives here. Uprooting your life is a huge time and emotional cost. It most cases it won't be worth the trouble. I say, bring it on.
250k UK citizens have moved to Dubai in the last few years. Its happening already.
Given that UK citizens emigrating is about 100k per year in total, you probably need to qualify "in the last few years".
Er, in the last year 532,000 people emigrated from the UK
ONS:
“1.2 million people migrated into the UK and 532,000 people emigrated from it, leaving a net migration figure of 685,000. This represents the balance of long-term migrants moving in and out of the country.”
Starmer rules out CGT on primary residences for the duration of the next parliament.
But not CGT from other avenues.
Indeed. It's rather obvious at this point they are coming for capital gains in a big way. Canada did similar earlier this year, and is already seeing capital flight.
Fpt my story is fairly simple, I used to be on a high income, paying 40% on that and investing about half my net PAYE pay. Over the last decade I've accumulated seven figures in unrealised gains.
Let's assume 1,000,000 exactly for a quick calculation. At current rates that's 200k tax. Which is doable. At 40% that becomes 400k in tax. Which to avoid, you have to leave the UK for 5 years after making the disposal (preferably in a 0% jurisdiction such as Dubai.)
So the choice is to pay HMRC 400k, or spend, say, 200k on a nice 5 year holiday backpacking round the far east, and still being up 200k more than if remaining in the UK. From a personal perspective it really is a no brainer and I imagine most would be exploring the same options I currently am.
Capital is mobile, and tbh I'd rather pay a reasonable amount. Cgt at 40%+ would be one of the most punitive tax regimes in the world and a lot of people with more than a million or two in gains - think successful entrepreneurs cashing out of their businesses - will be making the same calculation.
but most people have no capital gains to tax. It's like the parent's crying about VAT on private school, not enough of you to matter.
The top 1% of Britons in income pay 30% of the tax. I believe. Be very careful what you wish for
How much of the income do they get?
It doesn’t matter if half of them fuck off. Suddenly you’ve got an ENORMOUS hole in already stretched HMG finances, and Britain is bankrupt. Bravo
I tired of rich people holding the country hostage. I say, tax them more. I'm willing to bet most of them stay put. Most people have friends and family and lives here. Uprooting your life is a huge time and emotional cost. It most cases it won't be worth the trouble. I say, bring it on.
250k UK citizens have moved to Dubai in the last few years. Its happening already.
Given that UK citizens emigrating is about 100k per year in total, you probably need to qualify "in the last few years".
Er, in the last year 532,000 people emigrated from the UK
ONS:
“1.2 million people migrated into the UK and 532,000 people emigrated from it, leaving a net migration figure of 685,000. This represents the balance of long-term migrants moving in and out of the country.”
Exactly, and then because that's what FrancisUrquhart lead with. Just sticking to the terms of the conversation is apparently enough to make Leon dizzy and fall over.
I don’t say you were wrong I was pointing out the absurdly narrow focus of your argument. On top of 100,000 uk emigrants 400,000 others left. Who were they? How many were long term residents who actually paid a lot of tax? And how many of the trillions of incomers are going to be a net drain on the treasury, instead?
I fear the details won’t be good for UK PLC
The tax system is very harsh on writers who get big sums then very little for potentially years.
James Herriot's sons autobiography of him recounts how during the Labour 74-79 era he handed the vast majority of his book earnings to the treasury and attempted to contact the only other well earning writer who was still in the country only to find that he too had bolted.
It was iirc George Osborne who put a stop to authors being able to spread their earnings over several years
p.s. be sure to pass this back to your masters in CCHQ
Are you mad. I have already said that I will vote Reform (heart) or (God Help Me) Labour (head) to make sure the Tories lose in my seat. I am furious with them.
And I am not that new. Remember Brexit and the 6:1 bet the day before?
Your ♥ surely cannot lie with Nigel Farage. Where's the romance in bad breath and obsessing about immigration?
Yet another match cancelled in the T20 WC. What an omnishambles.
Would never happen in England in June.
We haven't had any word of a delayed toss, but with the covers on it seems unlikely we'll start on time.
The guardian live blog is saying toss is delayed and there will be showers through the day so it will be a bit on/off.
If England go out only having two completed matches, then it’s an absolute joke.
It’s not exactly ideal when trying to break a new market and the whole competition loses matches, results and teams because they can’t consider extra rain days or play the tournament in a dry season or dry areas.
In addition to this. The groups are too small. 4 games isn't enough for T20.
Starmer rules out CGT on primary residences for the duration of the next parliament.
But not CGT from other avenues.
Indeed. It's rather obvious at this point they are coming for capital gains in a big way. Canada did similar earlier this year, and is already seeing capital flight.
Fpt my story is fairly simple, I used to be on a high income, paying 40% on that and investing about half my net PAYE pay. Over the last decade I've accumulated seven figures in unrealised gains.
Let's assume 1,000,000 exactly for a quick calculation. At current rates that's 200k tax. Which is doable. At 40% that becomes 400k in tax. Which to avoid, you have to leave the UK for 5 years after making the disposal (preferably in a 0% jurisdiction such as Dubai.)
So the choice is to pay HMRC 400k, or spend, say, 200k on a nice 5 year holiday backpacking round the far east, and still being up 200k more than if remaining in the UK. From a personal perspective it really is a no brainer and I imagine most would be exploring the same options I currently am.
Capital is mobile, and tbh I'd rather pay a reasonable amount. Cgt at 40%+ would be one of the most punitive tax regimes in the world and a lot of people with more than a million or two in gains - think successful entrepreneurs cashing out of their businesses - will be making the same calculation.
but most people have no capital gains to tax. It's like the parent's crying about VAT on private school, not enough of you to matter.
The top 1% of Britons in income pay 30% of the tax. I believe. Be very careful what you wish for
How much of the income do they get?
It doesn’t matter if half of them fuck off. Suddenly you’ve got an ENORMOUS hole in already stretched HMG finances, and Britain is bankrupt. Bravo
I tired of rich people holding the country hostage. I say, tax them more. I'm willing to bet most of them stay put. Most people have friends and family and lives here. Uprooting your life is a huge time and emotional cost. It most cases it won't be worth the trouble. I say, bring it on.
250k UK citizens have moved to Dubai in the last few years. Its happening already.
Given that UK citizens emigrating is about 100k per year in total, you probably need to qualify "in the last few years".
Er, in the last year 532,000 people emigrated from the UK
ONS:
“1.2 million people migrated into the UK and 532,000 people emigrated from it, leaving a net migration figure of 685,000. This represents the balance of long-term migrants moving in and out of the country.”
Starmer rules out CGT on primary residences for the duration of the next parliament.
But not CGT from other avenues.
Indeed. It's rather obvious at this point they are coming for capital gains in a big way. Canada did similar earlier this year, and is already seeing capital flight.
Fpt my story is fairly simple, I used to be on a high income, paying 40% on that and investing about half my net PAYE pay. Over the last decade I've accumulated seven figures in unrealised gains.
Let's assume 1,000,000 exactly for a quick calculation. At current rates that's 200k tax. Which is doable. At 40% that becomes 400k in tax. Which to avoid, you have to leave the UK for 5 years after making the disposal (preferably in a 0% jurisdiction such as Dubai.)
So the choice is to pay HMRC 400k, or spend, say, 200k on a nice 5 year holiday backpacking round the far east, and still being up 200k more than if remaining in the UK. From a personal perspective it really is a no brainer and I imagine most would be exploring the same options I currently am.
Capital is mobile, and tbh I'd rather pay a reasonable amount. Cgt at 40%+ would be one of the most punitive tax regimes in the world and a lot of people with more than a million or two in gains - think successful entrepreneurs cashing out of their businesses - will be making the same calculation.
but most people have no capital gains to tax. It's like the parent's crying about VAT on private school, not enough of you to matter.
The top 1% of Britons in income pay 30% of the tax. I believe. Be very careful what you wish for
How much of the income do they get?
It doesn’t matter if half of them fuck off. Suddenly you’ve got an ENORMOUS hole in already stretched HMG finances, and Britain is bankrupt. Bravo
I tired of rich people holding the country hostage. I say, tax them more. I'm willing to bet most of them stay put. Most people have friends and family and lives here. Uprooting your life is a huge time and emotional cost. It most cases it won't be worth the trouble. I say, bring it on.
250k UK citizens have moved to Dubai in the last few years. Its happening already.
Given that UK citizens emigrating is about 100k per year in total, you probably need to qualify "in the last few years".
Er, in the last year 532,000 people emigrated from the UK
ONS:
“1.2 million people migrated into the UK and 532,000 people emigrated from it, leaving a net migration figure of 685,000. This represents the balance of long-term migrants moving in and out of the country.”
Exactly, and then because that's what FrancisUrquhart lead with. Just sticking to the terms of the conversation is apparently enough to make Leon dizzy and fall over.
I don’t say you were wrong I was pointing out the absurdly narrow focus of your argument. On top of 100,000 uk emigrants 400,000 others left. Who were they? How many were long term residents who actually paid a lot of tax? And how many of the trillions of incomers are going to be a net drain on the treasury, instead?
I fear the details won’t be good for UK PLC
The tax system is very harsh on writers who get big sums then very little for potentially years.
James Herriot's sons autobiography of him recounts how during the Labour 74-79 era he handed the vast majority of his book earnings to the treasury and attempted to contact the only other well earning writer who was still in the country only to find that he too had bolted.
It was iirc George Osborne who put a stop to authors being able to spread their earnings over several years
p.s. be sure to pass this back to your masters in CCHQ
Are you mad. I have already said that I will vote Reform (heart) or (God Help Me) Labour (head) to make sure the Tories lose in my seat. I am furious with them.
And I am not that new. Remember Brexit and the 6:1 bet the day before?
Your ♥ surely cannot lie with Nigel Farage. Where's the romance in bad breath and obsessing about immigration?
If Reform actually won the election I would be horrified. I suspect Farage would be too.
Yet another match cancelled in the T20 WC. What an omnishambles.
Would never happen in England in June.
We haven't had any word of a delayed toss, but with the covers on it seems unlikely we'll start on time.
The guardian live blog is saying toss is delayed and there will be showers through the day so it will be a bit on/off.
If England go out only having two completed matches, then it’s an absolute joke.
It’s not exactly ideal when trying to break a new market and the whole competition loses matches, results and teams because they can’t consider extra rain days or play the tournament in a dry season or dry areas.
I'm trying to think of any other sport where bad weather would result in cancelling most of the competition outright and, effectively, resorting to a bent lottery to decide who advances. Cricket is ridiculous, but then we knew that already.
The difference between 1997 and now is the economy was going gangbusters, Blair / Mandy had signally they were very comfortable with people getting filthy rich and the tax rates were much lower than now. And really they fudged a lot of things e.g. minimum wage was set at a rate that was pretty business friendly.
The Labour government before that, we had a big brain drain to places like Australia and US, because taxes got out of control. The past few years the Tories have acted like a Labour government continuous raising taxes.
I am not saying that will happen now, but it is true to say the situation is much trickier. High taxes, going higher, poor productivity, poor growth, etc, and there are countries signally loudly come live or do business here. Not just middle east, places like Estonia are very business friendly.
I don't envy Starmer government trying to sort this out, it will require difficult and unpopular decisions (some of which are against Starmer's ideological bent). A lot of the big ideas aren't really new and didn't work very well before e.g. centralised PFI fund, Help to Buy.
Yet another match cancelled in the T20 WC. What an omnishambles.
Would never happen in England in June.
We haven't had any word of a delayed toss, but with the covers on it seems unlikely we'll start on time.
The guardian live blog is saying toss is delayed and there will be showers through the day so it will be a bit on/off.
If England go out only having two completed matches, then it’s an absolute joke.
It’s not exactly ideal when trying to break a new market and the whole competition loses matches, results and teams because they can’t consider extra rain days or play the tournament in a dry season or dry areas.
I'm trying to think of any other sport where bad weather would result in cancelling most of the competition outright and, effectively, resorting to a bent lottery to decide who advances. Cricket is ridiculous, but then we knew that already.
Indeed. Imagine in the Euros two of France’s games get cancelled because of freak weather and it means they don’t qualify for the knock out rounds. Everyone would go mad and it would totally undermine the tournament.
Its not the super rich fleeing they want to worry about it is the middle giving up.
Personally I am part time now, which keeps me below £50k. Before I was stuffing huge amounts into Pension additional voluntary contributions. Don't mind paying 28% but damned if I will pay 70% marginal rate in tax and child benefit withrawals. So by trying to get 70% off me instead of 28% they get 0%.
There are similar things happening at £100k with childcare/personal allowance cliff.
The last two years have seen inflation matching benefit rises of 10% and 8% with tax allowances. on those working (and getting much lower pay rises) to pay for it.
So people are changing sides. A huge amount of those claiming working age sickness benefits are for conditions with a subjective diagnosis (backache/mental health condition). Only 16% were turned down.
Do I blame them. No. If I had no qualifications and rented and the choice was go on the sick, get my rent paid, get a stipend, get cost of living payments, get 75% of council tax paid, pay social utility rates, get a free mobility car...
...or get an unpleasant McJob that involved being treated poorly and unsocial night shifts and having 25% more cash at the end of it if I was lucky, I'm not sure I wouldn't do the same (that is before taking into account cash in hand receipts for the former).
So tax and benefit rises are already turning net contributors into net receivers. More of the same from Labour is the path to Bankruptcy
Latest in the familiar genre of “the Tories have made things shit. So you’d better not vote Labour because they might ruin it”.
Quite the opposite. I am explaining why they are going to get the drubbing of their lives and are behind Farages lot.
However, if Labour double down on it and increase benefits and taxes further, they will go the same way in 2029. They are going to have tu implement almost Dickensian reform if they want a second term.
As I have been at pains to point out, historically if Labour do achieve a 150+ seat majority they won’t be leaving office for at least 9 years, or 10 if they go full two terms.
The right can try to console itself over what is happening but it’s flight reaction from the reality of the present situation.
Historical precedents won't apply because of the way the parties are realigning. It doesn't take much of a swing to go from this to NOM, and then it doesn't take much more movement before Labour are going the same way as the Tories and the Lib Dems and Reform or its successor dominate the political map.
If the current trends continue, a result like this isn't out of the question, however it would only take a swing of a further 2% to Reform to wipe out the Labour majority entirely so it would be very volatile.
Yes but those are just made up figures, and even those have a Labour majority!
The point is to illustrate that not all big majorities are equal. One achieved like that would leave Labour vulnerable to very small swings.
It's not going to happen, but you could make a fortune on the Spreads by buying Reform if you really believed it.
I think it quite likely that they won't win a single seat.
Has the possibility been discussed on here of Reform winning 2 or 3 seats but Nigel Farage isn’t one of them?
I think that very possible. Not only do many Tories dislike Farage, in Clacton there is a very obvious Stop Farage Candidate. It's the only seat in the UK where I would vote Conservative, and I am not the only one thinking that.
Even in 2015 at the height of UKIP mania, Carswell had only a modest majority and was well known locally as a constituency MP. Now Watling has that advantage.
When Boris won a large majority in 2019 he was squatting like a toad over British politics and commencing a thousand year reign. If Starmer wins a similar majority this time he’ll be presiding over a castle built of sand.
Either pundits have learned from the last 5 years, or they are exhibiting their own unconscious biases about “the natural party of government” vs “the other party”.
Robert Peston is making the very same analysis however
“It is all very well for Starmer to set expectations relatively low for what a Labour government could achieve in the short term. But he is telling British people he represents “change”, which does not sound modest.
If in fact Starmer delivers more of the same, his apotheosis may be just as short as Johnson’s.”
But I thought the general principle here was that Peston analysis wasn't always very good?
On the substantive point, the Conservative victory in 2019 really ought to have been big enough to see them through two terms. All they had to do was not stuff up too badly. Unfortunately, stuffing up badly was exactly what they have done. At many times, in many ways and on a scale that the most creative satirist couldn't invent. With the consequences now beginning to play out. (I think we can say that, if postal votes have started to go out, voting has begun.)
That is what should haunt the entire British centre-right. What's happening to them is very largely self-inflicted. Not entirely- there was Covid, there is Ukraine. But the rest of it is the "Find Out" phase of FAFO.
Now it's possible that Boring Old Starmer will stuff up to a similar degree. But ask yourself- is it likely?
Its not the super rich fleeing they want to worry about it is the middle giving up.
Personally I am part time now, which keeps me below £50k. Before I was stuffing huge amounts into Pension additional voluntary contributions. Don't mind paying 28% but damned if I will pay 70% marginal rate in tax and child benefit withrawals. So by trying to get 70% off me instead of 28% they get 0%.
There are similar things happening at £100k with childcare/personal allowance cliff.
The last two years have seen inflation matching benefit rises of 10% and 8% with tax allowances. on those working (and getting much lower pay rises) to pay for it.
So people are changing sides. A huge amount of those claiming working age sickness benefits are for conditions with a subjective diagnosis (backache/mental health condition). Only 16% were turned down.
Do I blame them. No. If I had no qualifications and rented and the choice was go on the sick, get my rent paid, get a stipend, get cost of living payments, get 75% of council tax paid, pay social utility rates, get a free mobility car...
...or get an unpleasant McJob that involved being treated poorly and unsocial night shifts and having 25% more cash at the end of it if I was lucky, I'm not sure I wouldn't do the same (that is before taking into account cash in hand receipts for the former).
So tax and benefit rises are already turning net contributors into net receivers. More of the same from Labour is the path to Bankruptcy
This has been the most amazing thing about a Tory government. What the core problem with UK PLC, productivity, what things have Tories done...reduced CGT threshold and entrepreneurial relief on CGT from first business sale, introduce pension pot limit on tax relief, NI rises, introduced new NI++, and continued £50k cliff edge, £100k cliff edge,.....all great for growth and improved productivity, not.
Indeed, and the expectation for a Labour government would be to make every one of those worse.
We heard a lof talk of people moving abroad in the run up to 1997 too. Its a familiar scare story that the right wing parties like to run.
Anyone who did missed out on a long period of economic growth with taxes unchanged, at least until the aftermath of the GFC.
Worth noting too that under Conservative plans tax take goes up every year of the next parliament.
In 1997 nobody was talking about doubling taxes on capital at the next budget.
Imagine if it was mooted -and not denied- that the higher rate of income tax was going to go from 40% this year to 80% next. It might cause some consternation.
I might even stick around to pay 25% cgt. But 20% to 40% overnight makes it makes it worth my while to get out. And I'm only a poor wage slave with a mil or two as an investment portfolio. The calculation becomes even more obvious for the uber-rich.
Why isn't it in a SIPP or ISA, thereby exempt from CGT?
And why realise the entire gain in one year, rather than sell it off bit by bit? To have made a CG of £1,500,000 it must have been an even bigger capital sum originally.
I would like to see the CGT allowance that has been heavily cut by the Tories restored, and for there to be taper relief to allow for inflation. Only real terms CG should be taxable.
I have a sum in CG taxable investments, but have been revaluing the portfolio regularly and paying CGT on the gain annually. Wasn't this an option for you? Indeed couldn't you do it now in this tax year?
Yet another match cancelled in the T20 WC. What an omnishambles.
Would never happen in England in June.
We haven't had any word of a delayed toss, but with the covers on it seems unlikely we'll start on time.
The guardian live blog is saying toss is delayed and there will be showers through the day so it will be a bit on/off.
If England go out only having two completed matches, then it’s an absolute joke.
It’s not exactly ideal when trying to break a new market and the whole competition loses matches, results and teams because they can’t consider extra rain days or play the tournament in a dry season or dry areas.
In addition to this. The groups are too small. 4 games isn't enough for T20.
Going out because of rain is awful. Makes cricket, the finest of sports, look silly.
Its not the super rich fleeing they want to worry about it is the middle giving up.
Personally I am part time now, which keeps me below £50k. Before I was stuffing huge amounts into Pension additional voluntary contributions. Don't mind paying 28% but damned if I will pay 70% marginal rate in tax and child benefit withrawals. So by trying to get 70% off me instead of 28% they get 0%.
There are similar things happening at £100k with childcare/personal allowance cliff.
The last two years have seen inflation matching benefit rises of 10% and 8% with tax allowances. on those working (and getting much lower pay rises) to pay for it.
So people are changing sides. A huge amount of those claiming working age sickness benefits are for conditions with a subjective diagnosis (backache/mental health condition). Only 16% were turned down.
Do I blame them. No. If I had no qualifications and rented and the choice was go on the sick, get my rent paid, get a stipend, get cost of living payments, get 75% of council tax paid, pay social utility rates, get a free mobility car...
...or get an unpleasant McJob that involved being treated poorly and unsocial night shifts and having 25% more cash at the end of it if I was lucky, I'm not sure I wouldn't do the same (that is before taking into account cash in hand receipts for the former).
So tax and benefit rises are already turning net contributors into net receivers. More of the same from Labour is the path to Bankruptcy
This has been the most amazing thing about a Tory government. What the core problem with UK PLC, productivity, what things have Tories done...reduced CGT threshold and entrepreneurial relief on CGT from first business sale, introduce pension pot limit on tax relief, NI rises, introduced new NI++, and continued £50k cliff edge, £100k cliff edge,.....all great for growth and improved productivity, not.
Indeed, and the expectation for a Labour government would be to make every one of those worse.
We heard a lof talk of people moving abroad in the run up to 1997 too. Its a familiar scare story that the right wing parties like to run.
Anyone who did missed out on a long period of economic growth with taxes unchanged, at least until the aftermath of the GFC.
Worth noting too that under Conservative plans tax take goes up every year of the next parliament.
In 1997 nobody was talking about doubling taxes on capital at the next budget.
Imagine if it was mooted -and not denied- that the higher rate of income tax was going to go from 40% this year to 80% next. It might cause some consternation.
I might even stick around to pay 25% cgt. But 20% to 40% overnight makes it makes it worth my while to get out. And I'm only a poor wage slave with a mil or two as an investment portfolio. The calculation becomes even more obvious for the uber-rich.
At that sort of level why are you reliant on realising CGT? Pensions, ISAs, VCT, EIS and SEIS should give plenty of scope to live a comfortable middle class lifestlyle without actually paying regular CGT.
Its not the super rich fleeing they want to worry about it is the middle giving up.
Personally I am part time now, which keeps me below £50k. Before I was stuffing huge amounts into Pension additional voluntary contributions. Don't mind paying 28% but damned if I will pay 70% marginal rate in tax and child benefit withrawals. So by trying to get 70% off me instead of 28% they get 0%.
There are similar things happening at £100k with childcare/personal allowance cliff.
The last two years have seen inflation matching benefit rises of 10% and 8% with tax allowances. on those working (and getting much lower pay rises) to pay for it.
So people are changing sides. A huge amount of those claiming working age sickness benefits are for conditions with a subjective diagnosis (backache/mental health condition). Only 16% were turned down.
Do I blame them. No. If I had no qualifications and rented and the choice was go on the sick, get my rent paid, get a stipend, get cost of living payments, get 75% of council tax paid, pay social utility rates, get a free mobility car...
...or get an unpleasant McJob that involved being treated poorly and unsocial night shifts and having 25% more cash at the end of it if I was lucky, I'm not sure I wouldn't do the same (that is before taking into account cash in hand receipts for the former).
So tax and benefit rises are already turning net contributors into net receivers. More of the same from Labour is the path to Bankruptcy
This has been the most amazing thing about a Tory government. What the core problem with UK PLC, productivity, what things have Tories done...reduced CGT threshold and entrepreneurial relief on CGT from first business sale, introduce pension pot limit on tax relief, NI rises, introduced new NI++, and continued £50k cliff edge, £100k cliff edge,.....all great for growth and improved productivity, not.
Indeed, and the expectation for a Labour government would be to make every one of those worse.
We heard a lof talk of people moving abroad in the run up to 1997 too. Its a familiar scare story that the right wing parties like to run.
Anyone who did missed out on a long period of economic growth with taxes unchanged, at least until the aftermath of the GFC.
Worth noting too that under Conservative plans tax take goes up every year of the next parliament.
In 1997 nobody was talking about doubling taxes on capital at the next budget.
Imagine if it was mooted -and not denied- that the higher rate of income tax was going to go from 40% this year to 80% next. It might cause some consternation.
I might even stick around to pay 25% cgt. But 20% to 40% overnight makes it makes it worth my while to get out. And I'm only a poor wage slave with a mil or two as an investment portfolio. The calculation becomes even more obvious for the uber-rich.
Why would you need to realise your capital gains now anyway?
Differential CGT and income tax rates drive serious behavioural distortions in the economy, something Lawson understood when he equalised the rates in the 80s. Even after equalisation there is no NI so it remains beneficial relative to income.
I think one sensible option would be to equalise the rates but I cease the annual exempt amount.
Actually a clever option would be to raise immediately to 30% then pre-announce a further rise to equal income tax. That would trigger a huge surge in realisations, a big injection of cash into the treasury that could be spent on some immediate priorities. A bit like Brown’s 3G auction windfall.
Is there anything more bellend-ish than boasting about your income?
boasting about how much tax you've paid
It's quite remarkable how many Gazillionaires we have on PB, but no sink estate single mums or dads on benefits.
Lots of dads on benefits on here. They even think they paid for them with their "stamp", bless.
Not sure political betting has ever been popular with sink estate single mums.
Do you mean Child Benefit?
If so guilty as charged, but so long as I pay more income tax than I get child benefit, it is a defacto tax allowance, as it was de jure until the 74-79 Labour government changed it.
Osbornes higher rate tax charge on Child Benefit is one major reason that 2015 was the only election other than 1997 I didn't vote Conservative.
This election will be the third (been voting since 87 GE).
When Boris won a large majority in 2019 he was squatting like a toad over British politics and commencing a thousand year reign. If Starmer wins a similar majority this time he’ll be presiding over a castle built of sand.
Either pundits have learned from the last 5 years, or they are exhibiting their own unconscious biases about “the natural party of government” vs “the other party”.
Robert Peston is making the very same analysis however
“It is all very well for Starmer to set expectations relatively low for what a Labour government could achieve in the short term. But he is telling British people he represents “change”, which does not sound modest.
If in fact Starmer delivers more of the same, his apotheosis may be just as short as Johnson’s.”
But I thought the general principle here was that Peston analysis wasn't always very good?
On the substantive point, the Conservative victory in 2019 really ought to have been big enough to see them through two terms. All they had to do was not stuff up too badly. Unfortunately, stuffing up badly was exactly what they have done. At many times, in many ways and on a scale that the most creative satirist couldn't invent. With the consequences now beginning to play out. (I think we can say that, if postal votes have started to go out, voting has begun.)
That is what should haunt the entire British centre-right. What's happening to them is very largely self-inflicted. Not entirely- there was Covid, there is Ukraine. But the rest of it is the "Find Out" phase of FAFO.
Now it's possible that Boring Old Starmer will stuff up to a similar degree. But ask yourself- is it likely?
“ there was Covid, there is Ukraine”
Not exactly small matters - the worst outside factors to hit the country since WW2 would have hammered whoever was in government.
Its not the super rich fleeing they want to worry about it is the middle giving up.
Personally I am part time now, which keeps me below £50k. Before I was stuffing huge amounts into Pension additional voluntary contributions. Don't mind paying 28% but damned if I will pay 70% marginal rate in tax and child benefit withrawals. So by trying to get 70% off me instead of 28% they get 0%.
There are similar things happening at £100k with childcare/personal allowance cliff.
The last two years have seen inflation matching benefit rises of 10% and 8% with tax allowances. on those working (and getting much lower pay rises) to pay for it.
So people are changing sides. A huge amount of those claiming working age sickness benefits are for conditions with a subjective diagnosis (backache/mental health condition). Only 16% were turned down.
Do I blame them. No. If I had no qualifications and rented and the choice was go on the sick, get my rent paid, get a stipend, get cost of living payments, get 75% of council tax paid, pay social utility rates, get a free mobility car...
...or get an unpleasant McJob that involved being treated poorly and unsocial night shifts and having 25% more cash at the end of it if I was lucky, I'm not sure I wouldn't do the same (that is before taking into account cash in hand receipts for the former).
So tax and benefit rises are already turning net contributors into net receivers. More of the same from Labour is the path to Bankruptcy
Latest in the familiar genre of “the Tories have made things shit. So you’d better not vote Labour because they might ruin it”.
Quite the opposite. I am explaining why they are going to get the drubbing of their lives and are behind Farages lot.
However, if Labour double down on it and increase benefits and taxes further, they will go the same way in 2029. They are going to have tu implement almost Dickensian reform if they want a second term.
As I have been at pains to point out, historically if Labour do achieve a 150+ seat majority they won’t be leaving office for at least 9 years, or 10 if they go full two terms.
The right can try to console itself over what is happening but it’s flight reaction from the reality of the present situation.
Historical precedents won't apply because of the way the parties are realigning. It doesn't take much of a swing to go from this to NOM, and then it doesn't take much more movement before Labour are going the same way as the Tories and the Lib Dems and Reform or its successor dominate the political map.
If the current trends continue, a result like this isn't out of the question, however it would only take a swing of a further 2% to Reform to wipe out the Labour majority entirely so it would be very volatile.
Yes but those are just made up figures, and even those have a Labour majority!
The point is to illustrate that not all big majorities are equal. One achieved like that would leave Labour vulnerable to very small swings.
But, it's a point that many on here don't want to engage with.
I think most of us know that as a matter of maths in a two party state of 50,000,000 voter with 650 seats it is possible to win all 650 by getting 650 more votes nationally than the other side. It is also possible to get 650 more votes than the other side and lose all but one of them as well.
Between that and one party getting all the votes and all the seats is every possible vulnerability of outcome. We are engaged.
When Boris won a large majority in 2019 he was squatting like a toad over British politics and commencing a thousand year reign. If Starmer wins a similar majority this time he’ll be presiding over a castle built of sand.
Either pundits have learned from the last 5 years, or they are exhibiting their own unconscious biases about “the natural party of government” vs “the other party”.
Robert Peston is making the very same analysis however
“It is all very well for Starmer to set expectations relatively low for what a Labour government could achieve in the short term. But he is telling British people he represents “change”, which does not sound modest.
If in fact Starmer delivers more of the same, his apotheosis may be just as short as Johnson’s.”
But I thought the general principle here was that Peston analysis wasn't always very good?
On the substantive point, the Conservative victory in 2019 really ought to have been big enough to see them through two terms. All they had to do was not stuff up too badly. Unfortunately, stuffing up badly was exactly what they have done. At many times, in many ways and on a scale that the most creative satirist couldn't invent. With the consequences now beginning to play out. (I think we can say that, if postal votes have started to go out, voting has begun.)
That is what should haunt the entire British centre-right. What's happening to them is very largely self-inflicted. Not entirely- there was Covid, there is Ukraine. But the rest of it is the "Find Out" phase of FAFO.
Now it's possible that Boring Old Starmer will stuff up to a similar degree. But ask yourself- is it likely?
Not really. Johnson, Truss and Sunak had visible character flaws that led to the imminent loss of their majority.
I don't see that same potential in Starmer and Reeves. Excessive caution initially to reassure markets might frustrate voters, but voters desperate for improved public services are not going to flip Tory or Reform.
Starmer rules out CGT on primary residences for the duration of the next parliament.
But not CGT from other avenues.
Indeed. It's rather obvious at this point they are coming for capital gains in a big way. Canada did similar earlier this year, and is already seeing capital flight.
Fpt my story is fairly simple, I used to be on a high income, paying 40% on that and investing about half my net PAYE pay. Over the last decade I've accumulated seven figures in unrealised gains.
Let's assume 1,000,000 exactly for a quick calculation. At current rates that's 200k tax. Which is doable. At 40% that becomes 400k in tax. Which to avoid, you have to leave the UK for 5 years after making the disposal (preferably in a 0% jurisdiction such as Dubai.)
So the choice is to pay HMRC 400k, or spend, say, 200k on a nice 5 year holiday backpacking round the far east, and still being up 200k more than if remaining in the UK. From a personal perspective it really is a no brainer and I imagine most would be exploring the same options I currently am.
Capital is mobile, and tbh I'd rather pay a reasonable amount. Cgt at 40%+ would be one of the most punitive tax regimes in the world and a lot of people with more than a million or two in gains - think successful entrepreneurs cashing out of their businesses - will be making the same calculation.
but most people have no capital gains to tax. It's like the parent's crying about VAT on private school, not enough of you to matter.
The top 1% of Britons in income pay 30% of the tax. I believe. Be very careful what you wish for
How much of the income do they get?
It doesn’t matter if half of them fuck off. Suddenly you’ve got an ENORMOUS hole in already stretched HMG finances, and Britain is bankrupt. Bravo
I tired of rich people holding the country hostage. I say, tax them more. I'm willing to bet most of them stay put. Most people have friends and family and lives here. Uprooting your life is a huge time and emotional cost. It most cases it won't be worth the trouble. I say, bring it on.
So Britain will be able to rely on the taxes you pay, as a failed writer living on his own in a bed sit in Aberdeen shouting incoherently at motorcycles. That’s at least £6.87 a year. Should cover the NHS, no problem
Being a failed writer is a hobby. I've never sought any income for my failed writings. For actual work I'm a failed project manager. I manage failing projects or I take on well-run projects and cause them to fail. For this, I'm suitably rewarded. My total tax paid to the government last year was probably well into double figures.
If you have a failing project you'd like me to manage, please get in touch. my rates are surprisingly reasonable.
Yet another match cancelled in the T20 WC. What an omnishambles.
Would never happen in England in June.
We haven't had any word of a delayed toss, but with the covers on it seems unlikely we'll start on time.
The guardian live blog is saying toss is delayed and there will be showers through the day so it will be a bit on/off.
If England go out only having two completed matches, then it’s an absolute joke.
It’s not exactly ideal when trying to break a new market and the whole competition loses matches, results and teams because they can’t consider extra rain days or play the tournament in a dry season or dry areas.
In addition to this. The groups are too small. 4 games isn't enough for T20.
Going out because of rain is awful. Makes cricket, the finest of sports, look silly.
The sensible thing is to book a couple of optional extra days in one of the stadia at the end of the knockout stages. Into which a previously-cancelled match can be inserted.
Comments
If Labour decide to increase tax and benefits further and don't implement painful reform, they will face a similar fate at the 2029 election.
A Labour government might have a huge majority, but weak foundations
John Rentoul"
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/keir-starmer-poll-sunak-labour-tories-election-b2563201.html
I’m curious
However, if Labour double down on it and increase benefits and taxes further, they will go the same way in 2029. They are going to have tu implement almost Dickensian reform if they want a second term.
The right can try to console itself over what is happening but it’s flight reaction from the reality of the present situation.
And I am not that new. Remember Brexit and the 6:1 bet the day before?
The wicket in NY was clearly a bit dubious, but it made for a fascinating match.
Cricket-wise there needs to be more opportunity to have alternate days available. I'd suggest a fallback week.
See also John Rentouls Independent article posted by someone else a few posts above.
It's nice to have a good income, and afford the things you want, and to do the things you want to do and support things close to your heart. I can't for the life of me understand the craving for other people to know about it though.
I merely set her straight. I would not otherwise have gone into details. You’re welcome
James Milner is old enough to be his dad.
Either pundits have learned from the last 5 years, or they are exhibiting their own unconscious biases about “the natural party of government” vs “the other party”.
Next government should do that. Ban opinion polls during elections.
Lab 34% is just about possible.
I've been here on and off since roughly 2005 but have not posted since 2016 as I had too much going on in my life.
Having rejoined this morning, the weather has been rubbish and I have spent so much time reading the site I've remembered one why I stopped posting before lol, PB addiction.
Indeed if I said otherwise you’d accuse me of lying. And rightly. If I said “oh I’m off around the world because I’m a dreamy nomad” you’d say “nah, you’re just avoiding uk tax and weather”. And if I said “ugh I hate uk tax and labour weather, I’m off” you’d scoff and say “you spend all your life abroad anyway, you’re just trying to turn it into a political point”
See?
So I’m being truthful. Two things are at work at once
“It is all very well for Starmer to set expectations relatively low for what a Labour government could achieve in the short term. But he is telling British people he represents “change”, which does not sound modest.
If in fact Starmer delivers more of the same, his apotheosis may be just as short as Johnson’s.”
https://x.com/peston/status/1801914360706564255?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
It would be a total disaster. At the moment the statistical flow of data is to some degree directed by the need for accuracy. Banning polls would lead to rumour mongering and (unthinkable) LD bar charts. It would be impossible to ban the relevant data collecting so in the end the parties, and other powerful individuals would have information the rest of us did not.
And what would PB talk about?
It's not the winning, it's the taking part that counts.
We’ll find out soon enough. If Tories are really scapegoats and everyone’s ready to cheer up once they’re safely in the desert, then we may settle into a period akin to Merkel’s CDU hegemony. If they’re in a febrile state of expectation then instead we’ll see something like what’s happened in Germany since Scholz’s SPD took power. Starmer is quite a Germanic politician in many ways.
I think it quite likely that they won't win a single seat.
1. Entrepreneurs - people running their own businesses here.
2. Construction - mostly project managers
3. Estate agents
4. Teachers
5. Airlines - pilots and cabin crew, senior engineers
6. Senior salaried managers in local businesses - accountants, lawyers, IT pros etc.
In the mistaken belief that it will come as some kind of revelation to us all.
Only then will he fall, but the fall will be brutal and quite fast
I sincerely hope I am wrong and he turns the UK into a sunny paradise
James Herriot's sons autobiography of him recounts how during the Labour 74-79 era he handed the vast majority of his book earnings to the treasury and attempted to contact the only other well earning writer who was still in the country only to find that he too had bolted.
Is there anything stopping an author publishing through a sole-ownership ltd company & paying themselves from company funds over time to spread out their income?
It’s not remotely as advantageous as it was and it comes with a load more paperwork. I looked at it and then thought Nah
Rishi Sunak was scored second lowest in a list of politicians when it came to perceptions about patriotism
Voters think that Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party is more proud to be British than the Conservatives under Rishi Sunak, polling has found ahead of the general election.
Mr Sunak was scored second lowest in a list of politicians when it came to perceptions about patriotism, with only Jeremy Corbyn viewed as less patriotic than the Prime Minister.
The research by the UCL Policy Lab and the More in Common think tank also found that the public think that politicians are less patriotic today than they used to be.
Last week, More in Common polled 2,037 adults in Great Britain on the subject of patriotism.
Respondents were asked to think about a number of political parties under various recent leaders and “to what extent would you say they are proud or embarrassed to be British”.
Two in five (40 per cent) thought that the Labour Party under Sir Keir is proud to be British, with 13 per cent thinking it is embarrassed.
For the Conservatives under Mr Sunak, 24 per cent felt that the party is proud to be British, with 28 per cent believing the Tories under his leadership are embarrassed to be British.
The Tories under Mr Sunak also scored below the Conservative Party under Boris Johnson, and Reform UK under Nigel Farage.
Thirty-six per cent said that Reform under Mr Farage was proud to be British, with 21 per cent believing them to be embarrassed. Thirty one per cent felt the Tories under Mr Johnson were proud to be British, compared to to the same amount who thought the party was embarrassed to be British.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/15/voters-find-starmers-labour-more-patriotic-than-tories/
A good few familiar names but some have vanished. Including OGH sadly.
Who is to say that 2028/29 won’t also be unusual?
It's a small though real chance. The nature of internal party politics, the media and the great British public would all indicate against it. I think he will give it a go; which is why this Tory is voting for him.
Anyone who did missed out on a long period of economic growth with taxes unchanged, at least until the aftermath of the GFC.
Worth noting too that under Conservative plans tax take goes up every year of the next parliament.
I am 8 years older. I would like to think I am a little wiser
The evolution modelled is remarkably like June 1995. As has been the first half of the month.
1995 was the year Britain fully turned the corner from the early 90s recession and started to look and feel seriously optimistic. Peak Britpop, warmest driest summer in a generation, economy firing, London swinging again.
Even in 2015 at the height of UKIP mania, Carswell had only a modest majority and was well known locally as a constituency MP. Now Watling has that advantage.
Imagine if it was mooted -and not denied- that the higher rate of income tax was going to go from 40% this year to 80% next. It might cause some consternation.
I might even stick around to pay 25% cgt. But 20% to 40% overnight makes it makes it worth my while to get out. And I'm only a poor wage slave with a mil or two as an investment portfolio. The calculation becomes even more obvious for the uber-rich.
It is most confusing to many of us.
The groups are too small.
4 games isn't enough for T20.
The Labour government before that, we had a big brain drain to places like Australia and US, because taxes got out of control. The past few years the Tories have acted like a Labour government continuous raising taxes.
I am not saying that will happen now, but it is true to say the situation is much trickier. High taxes, going higher, poor productivity, poor growth, etc, and there are countries signally loudly come live or do business here. Not just middle east, places like Estonia are very business friendly.
I don't envy Starmer government trying to sort this out, it will require difficult and unpopular decisions (some of which are against Starmer's ideological bent). A lot of the big ideas aren't really new and didn't work very well before e.g. centralised PFI fund, Help to Buy.
Not sure political betting has ever been popular with sink estate single mums.
Third and fourth games in the entire competition's history in which teams have scored three in the first half.
I will watch this one with interest.
On the substantive point, the Conservative victory in 2019 really ought to have been big enough to see them through two terms. All they had to do was not stuff up too badly. Unfortunately, stuffing up badly was exactly what they have done. At many times, in many ways and on a scale that the most creative satirist couldn't invent. With the consequences now beginning to play out. (I think we can say that, if postal votes have started to go out, voting has begun.)
That is what should haunt the entire British centre-right. What's happening to them is very largely self-inflicted. Not entirely- there was Covid, there is Ukraine. But the rest of it is the "Find Out" phase of FAFO.
Now it's possible that Boring Old Starmer will stuff up to a similar degree. But ask yourself- is it likely?
And why realise the entire gain in one year, rather than sell it off bit by bit? To have made a CG of £1,500,000 it must have been an even bigger capital sum originally.
I would like to see the CGT allowance that has been heavily cut by the Tories restored, and for there to be taper relief to allow for inflation. Only real terms CG should be taxable.
I have a sum in CG taxable investments, but have been revaluing the portfolio regularly and paying CGT on the gain annually. Wasn't this an option for you? Indeed couldn't you do it now in this tax year?
Differential CGT and income tax rates drive serious behavioural distortions in the economy, something Lawson understood when he equalised the rates in the 80s. Even after equalisation there is no NI so it remains beneficial relative to income.
I think one sensible option would be to equalise the rates but I cease the annual exempt amount.
Actually a clever option would be to raise immediately to 30% then pre-announce a further rise to equal income tax. That would trigger a huge surge in realisations, a big injection of cash into the treasury that could be spent on some immediate priorities. A bit like Brown’s 3G auction windfall.
If so guilty as charged, but so long as I pay more income tax than I get child benefit, it is a defacto tax allowance, as it was de jure until the 74-79 Labour government changed it.
Osbornes higher rate tax charge on Child Benefit is one major reason that 2015 was the only election other than 1997 I didn't vote Conservative.
This election will be the third (been voting since 87 GE).
Not exactly small matters - the worst outside factors to hit the country since WW2 would have hammered whoever was in government.
Between that and one party getting all the votes and all the seats is every possible vulnerability of outcome. We are engaged.
I don't see that same potential in Starmer and Reeves. Excessive caution initially to reassure markets might frustrate voters, but voters desperate for improved public services are not going to flip Tory or Reform.