Wowowowowow - Mordaunt's closing pitch - the terrible record of Labour over the last few years which you have to stop by choosing the Conservatives instead.
I can only imagine what it is like day to day inside the White House. There is no way he is making any decisions.
Indeed
That’s one of the saddest of all the videos I’ve seen. He’s just pitiable now, it cannot be fun, his wife needs to do the right thing. Imagine him trying to last til 2028??
The way Macron then Meloni have to rescue him, Jeez. This is the President of the USA!
Look at Rishi’s face too. He’s worried. He’s just incapable of acting on it as usual.
In the express the readership is widely expecting farage to be the next PM 🙄🙄🙄 apparently they don't get fptp. But it worries me, as the disappointment will be huge when they end up with 3-5 seats...
Disappointed Express readers? Where’s my miniscule violin?
Admirable honesty from the always interesting and polite @HYUFD. If he would take 71 seats if offered it, I might have to rethink my view that this won’t (can’t) be better for Labour than Sir Tony’s shift in 97.
HYUFD is one of the politest posters on this board and an absolute gent.
But if he's willing to take 71 seats, it really is a ravens leaving the tower moment for the Conservatives.
Which is sad, as I fear the Faragist insurgency that's to come will be infinitely worse, and prevent the emergence of a centre-right government for a decade or more.
I don't think this Yougov poll means much, the Tories are actually unchanged from the last Yougov, the main swing from Labour and LD to Reform. Just Yougov like to be the pollster with the big shock polls as they did in 2014 when they were the first and one of the only pollsters to have Yes ahead.
Why is Labours manifesto called “change” when they want to keep basicly everything exactly the same?
Thank you. I'm glad we're still seeing this side of the Schrodinger's Labour narrative. They are at the same time going to do nothing at all different AND usher in a new Soviet dawn.
Well that’s generally what new Soviet leaders did…..
Can confirm my FB feed is riddled with the Sky TV stuff. After no discernable election commentary. Can also report that nobody mistook us nor abused us at break time in our blue school outfits, lanyards and ID, for Tory canvassers. Perhaps they've given up on the possibility they exist?
I can only imagine what it is like day to day inside the White House. There is no way he is making any decisions.
Indeed
That’s one of the saddest of all the videos I’ve seen. He’s just pitiable now, it cannot be fun, his wife needs to do the right thing. Imagine him trying to last til 2028??
The way Macron then Meloni have to rescue him, Jeez. This is the President of the USA!
There could have been people out of shot he was giving the thumbs up too, though to be honest he could be a brain dead corpse with no pulse and still get 45-50% against Trump
Perhaps Sunak and Macron could do a secret deal to merge the UK and France and cancel their respective elections pending the formation of a joint government.
I can only imagine what it is like day to day inside the White House. There is no way he is making any decisions.
Indeed
That’s one of the saddest of all the videos I’ve seen. He’s just pitiable now, it cannot be fun, his wife needs to do the right thing. Imagine him trying to last til 2028??
The way Macron then Meloni have to rescue him, Jeez. This is the President of the USA!
There could have been people out of shot he was giving the thumbs up too, though to be honest he could be a brain dead corpse with no pulse and still get 45-50% against Trump
If it was a one off perhaps, but 2 days ago he forgot he shook somebodies hand within 30s and went to do it again and was totally confused when the person ignored it. Its a daily thing now.
Tories are sub 20 with 4 pollsters. Its over. They will disintegrate over the next 3 weeks. I cant see them being the opposition.
Yes. Lets pull this movement apart: 1) Labour are shedding the soft vote that had herded into their column. Losing a few to Green, more to LibDem, some to Reform. That will reduce the number of seats they win and the majorities they get in those seats 2) LibDems are getting a lot of attention and people like what they see. Not relevant nationally, but the target seats focus and the willingness to vote tactically will pay out. I know the party is playing it down citing past elections, but Sarah Olney's tale of woe last night is a tale of elections past, not the one in front of us 3) Reform are transformed - the Nigel has doubled their support and the Tory dam is breaking. That Jenkyns leaflet won't be the only one. Once the dam breaks properly the surge of Tory votes to Reform is unstoppable now - watch the flow accelerate the closer we get to polling day 4) Sorry Tories, its the end. Nobody is listening to you, and the bits they hear they laugh at - openly, to your face.
Unless something radical happens to abruptly reverse it, this is going to be the biggest electoral shift for a century. The Tories have launched the manifesto now, its not going to pull a Farage-shooting rabbit out of the hat. And "don't give Labour a super-majority?" Not remotely enough when voters are now heading off to spread their votes about away from Labour.
I know that ELE is "it couldn't happen here". But it IS. Look. Listen. Think. What possibly can avert it now? Fear of that anodyne Labour offer? Fear of Farage? A sudden "poor Rishi lets vote for him after all" movement?
I have no clue what that means for seats. It's going to be fun.
I mean this in the nicest possible way:
You must be shitting yourself you might actually win
Rochdale would make an above average MP, I think ?
(Admittedly that’s not the highest of bars.)
Oh I hope he does. Actually as (part of being) a kid I didn't live very far away from his seat - village/town called Cullen.
But I doubt Mrs Rochdale thought he would win when she gave him permission to run. I'm just making that sentence up though based on what most marriages are like. Who knows. It's a bit unfair cause he surely cannot be expected to answer anyway. So I'll leave it there
Cullen is IN the seat. Hustings there next Thursday! We've been promised an appearance by the Ross.
Do you ever get confused, whether you're in North Aberdeenshire OR East Moray? Or is it East Aberdeenshire and North Moray? AND how do you tell for sure?
Lead on MacDuff!
I created an acronym on day 1 - ANME. My problem is pronunciation. Depending which part of the country you are from our local places - my village included - are pronounced very differently.
As an incomer - and Cyber Nats are already telling me to fuck off out of their town / country - I want to get pronunciations as balanced as I can.
ANME - pronounced "anime"?
Regarding pronunciation, try putting an extra "f" when you say Banff = "ban'f'f". Or rather, always say one more "f" than whomever you're bandying words with does.
(Perhaps you should clear that with Malcolm f'first?)
If the Tom Tugendhat’s of this world are in charge, 100 is enough to rebuild on.
If it’s Suella Braverman or Robert Jenrick, in future years they will be able to look back on when they were able to get 100.
If its Braverman or Jenrick the Tories will likely merge with Reform within 5 years if we keep FPTP
Would you join them, or would that be a step too far?
Reluctantly yes, I am still more of a Conservative than LD (who based on their manifesto are back to a Charles Kennedy social democratic rather than Cleggite Orange Book party which I might be able to support) and I could never join Labour. So I suppose I would probably just have to accept Farage as my party leader with Braverman or Jenrick as Deputy (Mogg I assume would get a senior role too).
I would prefer we remain a separate party though, ironically PR probably makes that more likely than FPTP if the Tories fall under 100 seats
In the express the readership is widely expecting farage to be the next PM 🙄🙄🙄 apparently they don't get fptp. But it worries me, as the disappointment will be huge when they end up with 3-5 seats...
There was talk of them storming Westminster earlier, Capitol Hill style
My biggest surprise is how long it took for people to realise the obvious; that Sunak was terrible at politics and would likely fall further during an election campaign.
Wet centrists will own this coming defeat for a long time.
I am not sure Sunak can fall any further but it hardly matters as nobody is listening to him
Having said that when the 4th July arrives and the country expects a huge landslide do not be surprised if many conservatives hold their nose and vote for the party
My biggest surprise is how long it took for people to realise the obvious; that Sunak was terrible at politics and would likely fall further during an election campaign.
Wet centrists will own this coming defeat for a long time.
If the Tories go further right, Labour get dragged left, with Lib Dem seem to have given up on Orange Booking...where does on go if they are centre / centre right on economics and liberal on social issues....asking for a friend.
My biggest surprise is how long it took for people to realise the obvious; that Sunak was terrible at politics and would likely fall further during an election campaign.
Wet centrists will own this coming defeat for a long time.
In the express the readership is widely expecting farage to be the next PM 🙄🙄🙄 apparently they don't get fptp. But it worries me, as the disappointment will be huge when they end up with 3-5 seats...
There was talk of them storming Westminster earlier, Capitol Hill style
They'll have to get past the PIN code on the care home doors first though.
I can only imagine what it is like day to day inside the White House. There is no way he is making any decisions.
Indeed
That’s one of the saddest of all the videos I’ve seen. He’s just pitiable now, it cannot be fun, his wife needs to do the right thing. Imagine him trying to last til 2028??
The way Macron then Meloni have to rescue him, Jeez. This is the President of the USA!
Look at Rishi’s face too. He’s worried. He’s just incapable of acting on it as usual.
Respect to Meloni for having the emotional intelligence to smoothly gather him and make him appear vaguely sane. There are several videos like this from just this one G7 meeting. His decline seems to be accelerating and I’d say there’s a highly credible chance he won’t get the Nom. They just can’t risk a man in his cognitive condition
Why is Labours manifesto called “change” when they want to keep basicly everything exactly the same?
Thank you. I'm glad we're still seeing this side of the Schrodinger's Labour narrative. They are at the same time going to do nothing at all different AND usher in a new Soviet dawn.
Well that’s generally what new Soviet leaders did…..
Heh, but not really. If you know Soviet history, you know that's not often how it went down.
I can only imagine what it is like day to day inside the White House. There is no way he is making any decisions.
Indeed
That’s one of the saddest of all the videos I’ve seen. He’s just pitiable now, it cannot be fun, his wife needs to do the right thing. Imagine him trying to last til 2028??
The way Macron then Meloni have to rescue him, Jeez. This is the President of the USA!
Look at Rishi’s face too. He’s worried. He’s just incapable of acting on it as usual.
Cast your mind back to the Tory leadership debates. There was a time when the presenter fainted and he'd turned into Superrishi for a moment.
My biggest surprise is how long it took for people to realise the obvious; that Sunak was terrible at politics and would likely fall further during an election campaign.
Wet centrists will own this coming defeat for a long time.
And there's the inevitable punchline. We lost because we weren't extreme enough.
If the Tom Tugendhat’s of this world are in charge, 100 is enough to rebuild on.
If it’s Suella Braverman or Robert Jenrick, in future years they will be able to look back on when they were able to get 100.
If its Braverman or Jenrick the Tories will likely merge with Reform within 5 years if we keep FPTP
Would you join them, or would that be a step too far?
Reluctantly yes, I am still more of a Conservative than LD (who based on their manifesto are back to a social democratic rather than Orange Book party which I might be able to support) and I could never join Labour. So I suppose I would probably just have to accept Farage as my party leader with Braverman or Jenrick as Deputy.
I would prefer we remain a separate party though, ironically PR probably makes that more likely than FPTP if the Tories fall under 100 seats
At these levels there is zero change of Labour contemplating PR. It’s off the menu unless or until a tight LibLab win.
I can only imagine what it is like day to day inside the White House. There is no way he is making any decisions.
Indeed
That’s one of the saddest of all the videos I’ve seen. He’s just pitiable now, it cannot be fun, his wife needs to do the right thing. Imagine him trying to last til 2028??
The way Macron then Meloni have to rescue him, Jeez. This is the President of the USA!
There could have been people out of shot he was giving the thumbs up too, though to be honest he could be a brain dead corpse with no pulse and still get 45-50% against Trump
Perhaps the other world leaders were just worried he was 'doing a Rishi' and buggering off early.
I can only imagine what it is like day to day inside the White House. There is no way he is making any decisions.
Indeed
That’s one of the saddest of all the videos I’ve seen. He’s just pitiable now, it cannot be fun, his wife needs to do the right thing. Imagine him trying to last til 2028??
The way Macron then Meloni have to rescue him, Jeez. This is the President of the USA!
Look at Rishi’s face too. He’s worried. He’s just incapable of acting on it as usual.
Respect to Meloni for having the emotional intelligence to smoothly gather him and make him appear vaguely sane. There are several videos like this from just this one G7 meeting. His decline seems to be accelerating and I’d say there’s a highly credible chance he won’t get the Nom. They just can’t risk a man in his cognitive condition
Eh? Didn’t he go over to talk to that service person on the floor and then she said there’s a guy wanting to take photos over there? Whole load of nothing.
My biggest surprise is how long it took for people to realise the obvious; that Sunak was terrible at politics and would likely fall further during an election campaign.
Wet centrists will own this coming defeat for a long time.
Yup. What the public really wants right now, in uncertain times, is for the PM to put a bit of stick about.
If the Tories go further right, Labour get dragged left, with Lib Dem seem to have given up on Orange Booking...where does on go if they are centre / centre right on economics and liberal on social issues....asking for a friend.
Abroad. We go abroad.
I've been looking at digital nomad-y stuff since Leon highlighted the new Thailand visa earlier this week.
I just saw Sunak getting his photo op with Zelenskyy. I wonder if he thought its fine to bugger off early from D-Day because I will be doing the world leader thing in a few days.
I can only imagine what it is like day to day inside the White House. There is no way he is making any decisions.
Indeed
That’s one of the saddest of all the videos I’ve seen. He’s just pitiable now, it cannot be fun, his wife needs to do the right thing. Imagine him trying to last til 2028??
The way Macron then Meloni have to rescue him, Jeez. This is the President of the USA!
Look at Rishi’s face too. He’s worried. He’s just incapable of acting on it as usual.
Respect to Meloni for having the emotional intelligence to smoothly gather him and make him appear vaguely sane. There are several videos like this from just this one G7 meeting. His decline seems to be accelerating and I’d say there’s a highly credible chance he won’t get the Nom. They just can’t risk a man in his cognitive condition
Talking of Meloni fist fights broke out between the left and right in their parliament today
My biggest surprise is how long it took for people to realise the obvious; that Sunak was terrible at politics and would likely fall further during an election campaign.
Wet centrists will own this coming defeat for a long time.
Yup. What the public really wants right now, in uncertain times, is for the PM to put a bit of stick about.
My biggest surprise is how long it took for people to realise the obvious; that Sunak was terrible at politics and would likely fall further during an election campaign.
Wet centrists will own this coming defeat for a long time.
He is wet, but not centrist.
Yeah. The entire problem with the Tory Party is that it has become unmoored from where the centre is. Just look at the polls. The centre right now is the far left of the LD's or the extreme right of Labour. It's Liz Kendall. That's where the median voter sits. You've done fuck all to appeal to them. Starmer's done loads. So you don't deserve to win. Or come second.
I just saw Sunak getting his photo op with Zelenskyy. I wonder if he thought its fine to bugger off early from D-Day because I will be doing the world leader thing in a few days.
Too late. Starmer got his photo with Zelensky at D-Day event that Sunak ran away from in the manifesto.
I just saw Sunak getting his photo op with Zelenskyy. I wonder if he thought its fine to bugger off early from D-Day because I will be doing the world leader thing in a few days.
Too late. Starmer got his photo with Zelensky at D-Day event that Sunak ran away from in the manifesto.
Well yes, its was moronic. But I was just trying to work out what in hell Sunak was thinking.
LAB 43 (-1) CON 19 (-1) REF 16 (+1) LIB 11 (+1) GRN 6 (=0) SNP 2 (=0)
F/W 12-13 June
So straight away another poll still has the Tories ahead of Reform
Come on. You can see the trend as well as we can. You're down to 19 and dropping. 3 weeks left and at this rate you're below them in 3 days.
I can see Yougov like to spin the media narrative with a poll of Reform ahead of the Tories as they drove the narrative in 2014 with a poll with Yes ahead. They were always going to poll until they got that result, which they did by 1% with the Tory voteshare unchanged and with all other polls still having the Tories ahead of Reform.
However if you want PM Farage if Reform overtake the Tories on votes and seats that is what you will eventually get within a decade if they do. And from your perspective it would be a nasty, nasty, nasty government that would make you wishing for the days of Sunak and Cameron! Leon would love it of course!
It isn't about what I want. Its about what the voters want.
My biggest surprise is how long it took for people to realise the obvious; that Sunak was terrible at politics and would likely fall further during an election campaign.
Wet centrists will own this coming defeat for a long time.
Sunak is more right-wing than Boris was. He's just shit.
I can only imagine what it is like day to day inside the White House. There is no way he is making any decisions.
Indeed
That’s one of the saddest of all the videos I’ve seen. He’s just pitiable now, it cannot be fun, his wife needs to do the right thing. Imagine him trying to last til 2028??
The way Macron then Meloni have to rescue him, Jeez. This is the President of the USA!
Look at Rishi’s face too. He’s worried. He’s just incapable of acting on it as usual.
Respect to Meloni for having the emotional intelligence to smoothly gather him and make him appear vaguely sane. There are several videos like this from just this one G7 meeting. His decline seems to be accelerating and I’d say there’s a highly credible chance he won’t get the Nom. They just can’t risk a man in his cognitive condition
The way Meloni handled that looks more impressive on the second time of watching. She saw him wandering off and switched to the other side of the group and backed towards him to make the whole manouevre look as natural as possible.
I don't think this Yougov poll means much, the Tories are actually unchanged from the last Yougov, the main swing from Labour and LD to Reform. Just Yougov like to be the pollster with the big shock polls as they did in 2014 when they were the first and one of the only pollsters to have Yes ahead.
Con on 71 is a complete catastrophe for the most successful political party in British history
It isn't, provided they stay main opposition, then Labour has to deal with the economy in government and they start to get the protest vote
If this was the result then every by-election or defection could threaten the Tory's as official opposition.
I still think Con about 125 or so.
The Tories are just as likely to pick up Labour seats in by elections mid term of a Labour government than lose any to the LDs or Reform
After 1997, the first Conservative by election gain was Crewe and Nantwich in May 2008.
Yes but New Labour were gifted a better economic situation than Starmer's government will inherit, even if Sunak has reduced the worst of the Truss damage
Why is Labours manifesto called “change” when they want to keep basicly everything exactly the same?
Thank you. I'm glad we're still seeing this side of the Schrodinger's Labour narrative. They are at the same time going to do nothing at all different AND usher in a new Soviet dawn.
Well that’s generally what new Soviet leaders did…..
Heh, but not really. If you know Soviet history, you know that's not often how it went down.
Ooo now this is an interesting discussion. Lots of difference in the “who gets locked up or brutally murdered” sense. Past Stalin, less difference in real policy I would say (until the end).
My biggest surprise is how long it took for people to realise the obvious; that Sunak was terrible at politics and would likely fall further during an election campaign.
Wet centrists will own this coming defeat for a long time.
Sunak is more right-wing than Boris was. He's just shit.
I don't think Sunak is anything. I don't think he has any real idea what he believes in. That is half the problem and why people suggest wooden toys as a popular policy from the focus groups and he goes with it.
One moment he is putting up NI and introducing NI++, next he is promising to abolish it.
My biggest surprise is how long it took for people to realise the obvious; that Sunak was terrible at politics and would likely fall further during an election campaign.
Wet centrists will own this coming defeat for a long time.
I am not sure Sunak can fall any further but it hardly matters as nobody is listening to him
Having said that when the 4th July arrives and the country expects a huge landslide do not be surprised if many conservatives hold their nose and vote for the party
My biggest surprise is how long it took for people to realise the obvious; that Sunak was terrible at politics and would likely fall further during an election campaign.
Wet centrists will own this coming defeat for a long time.
Sunak is more right-wing than Boris was. He's just shit.
I don't think Sunak is anything. I don't think he has any real idea what he believes in. That is half the problem and why people suggest wooden toys as a popular policy from the focus groups and he goes with it.
One moment he is putting up NI and introducing NI++, next he is promising to abolish it.
The problem with those who seem to stand for nothing, is that they'll fall for anything...
My biggest surprise is how long it took for people to realise the obvious; that Sunak was terrible at politics and would likely fall further during an election campaign.
Wet centrists will own this coming defeat for a long time.
Yup. What the public really wants right now, in uncertain times, is for the PM to put a bit of stick about.
My biggest surprise is how long it took for people to realise the obvious; that Sunak was terrible at politics and would likely fall further during an election campaign.
Wet centrists will own this coming defeat for a long time.
I am not sure Sunak can fall any further but it hardly matters as nobody is listening to him
Having said that when the 4th July arrives and the country expects a huge landslide do not be surprised if many conservatives hold their nose and vote for the party
That's where my 25% theory comes from.
I wondered the same. Until my Thatcherite father started talking about voting for Starmer...
Perhaps Sunak and Macron could do a secret deal to merge the UK and France and cancel their respective elections pending the formation of a joint government.
Perhaps Sunak and Macron could do a secret deal to merge the UK and France and cancel their respective elections pending the formation of a joint government.
My biggest surprise is how long it took for people to realise the obvious; that Sunak was terrible at politics and would likely fall further during an election campaign.
Wet centrists will own this coming defeat for a long time.
He is wet, but not centrist.
Yeah. The entire problem with the Tory Party is that it has become unmoored from where the centre is. Just look at the polls. The centre right now is the far left of the LD's or the extreme right of Labour. It's Liz Kendall. That's where the median voter sits. You've done fuck all to appeal to them. Starmer's done loads. So you don't deserve to win. Or come second.
I wouldn't personally agree that the median voter sits on the centre right, because people are too contradictory.
He or she might have the views on business of Liz Kendall or Ed Davey, but the views on spending of Ed Miliband, or even Jeremy Corbyn.
Yes but it's four years old. Interesting that it supports his current image suggesting that it is genuine.
I’m wondering whether someone will confront him with a post-master before the election is done. Won’t look so cuddly then. Especially not if it’s Bates.
I can only imagine what it is like day to day inside the White House. There is no way he is making any decisions.
Indeed
That’s one of the saddest of all the videos I’ve seen. He’s just pitiable now, it cannot be fun, his wife needs to do the right thing. Imagine him trying to last til 2028??
The way Macron then Meloni have to rescue him, Jeez. This is the President of the USA!
There could have been people out of shot he was giving the thumbs up too, though to be honest he could be a brain dead corpse with no pulse and still get 45-50% against Trump
Even were he a brain dead corpse with no pulse, he’d deserve more than 50% against the rapist fraudster.
I'm beginning to realise that I have woefully underestimated the amount of snacks I need for election night.
What snacks do you think you will need?
I think a box of chocolates might be a good option for a Labour-style snack. "Labour is like a box of chocolates. You never know what you're gonna get." They've given precious little away in the manifesto...
Every box of chocolates I’ve bought has descriptions of each of the individual pieces. The main disappointment is that the pieces are getting smaller every year and the cost still goes up…
My biggest surprise is how long it took for people to realise the obvious; that Sunak was terrible at politics and would likely fall further during an election campaign.
Wet centrists will own this coming defeat for a long time.
Sunak is more right-wing than Boris was. He's just shit.
I don't think Sunak is anything. I don't think he has any real idea what he believes in. That is half the problem and why people suggest wooden toys as a popular policy from the focus groups and he goes with it.
One moment he is putting up NI and introducing NI++, next he is promising to abolish it.
No, he was a Brexit supporter long before the referendum. He is a right winger who presents as a centrist.
My biggest surprise is how long it took for people to realise the obvious; that Sunak was terrible at politics and would likely fall further during an election campaign.
Wet centrists will own this coming defeat for a long time.
Are you ever going to accept that Boris and Truss have their share of the responsibility ?
Together with all the other Conservative politicians who have disgraced themselves during sine the last election ?
If you think that Sunak is terrible at politics then what does that say of the rest of the Conservatives party that Sunak was the only person left standing after the previous leadership failings ?
My biggest surprise is how long it took for people to realise the obvious; that Sunak was terrible at politics and would likely fall further during an election campaign.
Wet centrists will own this coming defeat for a long time.
He is wet, but not centrist.
Yeah. The entire problem with the Tory Party is that it has become unmoored from where the centre is. Just look at the polls. The centre right now is the far left of the LD's or the extreme right of Labour. It's Liz Kendall. That's where the median voter sits. You've done fuck all to appeal to them. Starmer's done loads. So you don't deserve to win. Or come second.
I wouldn't personally agree that the median voter sits on the centre right, because people are too contradictory.
He or she might have the views on business of Liz Kendall or Ed Davey, but the views on spending of Ed Miliband, or even Jeremy Corbyn.
I'm resigned to the liklihood of little fundamentally changing until something major happens. A war, or an IMF bailout.
Too many (of all ages) have got used to the state providing. That is simply unsustainable given our demographics.
I just saw Sunak getting his photo op with Zelenskyy. I wonder if he thought its fine to bugger off early from D-Day because I will be doing the world leader thing in a few days.
Too late. Starmer got his photo with Zelensky at D-Day event that Sunak ran away from in the manifesto.
Meeting Starmer will have been more important for Zelenskyy anyway. He’s had a series of Tory leaders who have been reliably supportive but he’s bound to be a bit nervous about a change of government with new priorities. So this along with presumably lots of back channel contact will have been reassuring.
The smooth peaceful transition of power is one of Britain’s markers as a democratic Western society.
I am not sure Sunak can fall any further but it hardly matters as nobody is listening to him
Having said that when the 4th July arrives and the country expects a huge landslide do not be surprised if many conservatives hold their nose and vote for the party
That's where my 25% theory comes from.
Wouldn't be surprised. And that would be seen as a bit of a Houdini recovery. But it would still be a historically catastrophic record breaking low for a governing Party. We live in interesting times!
My biggest surprise is how long it took for people to realise the obvious; that Sunak was terrible at politics and would likely fall further during an election campaign.
Wet centrists will own this coming defeat for a long time.
Sunak isn't a "wet centrist" though. He's a weird combination of the things centrists can't stand about the Tory right, and the things the Tory right don't like about their party's self-described pragmatists.
So pleases and understands no one.
If the Tories do have a real disaster it's because they'll be a rare example of a party that managed to totally alienate both the moderate end of its voter coalition and its extreme end at the same time. Even Corbyn only managed one of those.
My biggest surprise is how long it took for people to realise the obvious; that Sunak was terrible at politics and would likely fall further during an election campaign.
Wet centrists will own this coming defeat for a long time.
He is wet, but not centrist.
Trouble is that @HYUFD is basically right. In the current configuration of the Conservative Party, Sunak is a wet centrist. Most of those to his left have walked or were pushed or are counting down the days to retirement.
Admirable honesty from the always interesting and polite @HYUFD. If he would take 71 seats if offered it, I might have to rethink my view that this won’t (can’t) be better for Labour than Sir Tony’s shift in 97.
HYUFD is one of the politest posters on this board and an absolute gent.
But if he's willing to take 71 seats, it really is a ravens leaving the tower moment for the Conservatives.
Which is sad, as I fear the Faragist insurgency that's to come will be infinitely worse, and prevent the emergence of a centre-right government for a decade or more.
I am having similar sentiments. I find myself looking at the likes of Sunak and Penny on the telly, and the many PB Tories on here and think: do we really want to replace these good people with whom I disagree with Farage’s mob? Answer: No.
My biggest surprise is how long it took for people to realise the obvious; that Sunak was terrible at politics and would likely fall further during an election campaign.
Wet centrists will own this coming defeat for a long time.
Are you ever going to accept that Boris and Truss have their share of the responsibility ?
Together with all the other Conservative politicians who have disgraced themselves during sine the last election ?
If you think that Sunak is terrible at politics then what does that say of the rest of the Conservatives party that Sunak was the only person left standing after the previous leadership failings ?
Why is Labours manifesto called “change” when they want to keep basicly everything exactly the same?
Thank you. I'm glad we're still seeing this side of the Schrodinger's Labour narrative. They are at the same time going to do nothing at all different AND usher in a new Soviet dawn.
Well that’s generally what new Soviet leaders did…..
Heh, but not really. If you know Soviet history, you know that's not often how it went down.
Ooo now this is an interesting discussion. Lots of difference in the “who gets locked up or brutally murdered” sense. Past Stalin, less difference in real policy I would say (until the end).
I don't think that's true apart from the Brezhnev era and his two very short-lived successors. Khrushchev and Gorbachev either side of that did transform things. As did Stalin, horribly. And Lenin before him, very notably indeed.
Admirable honesty from the always interesting and polite @HYUFD. If he would take 71 seats if offered it, I might have to rethink my view that this won’t (can’t) be better for Labour than Sir Tony’s shift in 97.
HYUFD is one of the politest posters on this board and an absolute gent.
But if he's willing to take 71 seats, it really is a ravens leaving the tower moment for the Conservatives.
Which is sad, as I fear the Faragist insurgency that's to come will be infinitely worse, and prevent the emergence of a centre-right government for a decade or more.
I am having similar sentiments. I find myself looking at the likes of Sunak and Penny on the telly, and the many PB Tories on here and think: do we really want to replace these good people with whom I disagree with Farage’s mob? Answer: No.
The Tories need the wilderness years to reflect on why promising to limit migration then letting it soar into 7 figures was a bad idea. Same with levelling up, infrastructure, defence, and everything else they've reneged on. A total capture of the oldies by Farage may let a Canadian style Conservative party rise - there's plenty of young right wingers, just (almost) none of them vote Tory.
That supports my daughter's comment earlier about Embarrassing Dad Ed's antics cutting through in a positive way amongst her age group. I don't think any of them knew who he was before.
You can get 6/1 at Ladbrokes that Ed will be fired from a cannon before the campaign is out
My biggest surprise is how long it took for people to realise the obvious; that Sunak was terrible at politics and would likely fall further during an election campaign.
Wet centrists will own this coming defeat for a long time.
Are you ever going to accept that Boris and Truss have their share of the responsibility ?
Together with all the other Conservative politicians who have disgraced themselves during sine the last election ?
If you think that Sunak is terrible at politics then what does that say of the rest of the Conservatives party that Sunak was the only person left standing after the previous leadership failings ?
Oh absolutely, Boris and Truss failed as well.
But Sunak has spent the last two years doing fundamentally unConservative things. Growing the state, increasing the tax burden, restricting liberty.
He will not be remembered well by Conservative members.
And I totally agree with you - it shows the Parliamentary party as poor ground politicians. They should have ensured there was a proper contest after Truss resigned. By failing to do so, and then failing to oust Sunak when it became obvious he wasn't up to it, many, perhaps most of them, will end up losing their seats.
My biggest surprise is how long it took for people to realise the obvious; that Sunak was terrible at politics and would likely fall further during an election campaign.
Wet centrists will own this coming defeat for a long time.
He is wet, but not centrist.
Yeah. The entire problem with the Tory Party is that it has become unmoored from where the centre is. Just look at the polls. The centre right now is the far left of the LD's or the extreme right of Labour. It's Liz Kendall. That's where the median voter sits. You've done fuck all to appeal to them. Starmer's done loads. So you don't deserve to win. Or come second.
I wouldn't personally agree that the median voter sits on the centre right, because people are too contradictory.
He or she might have the views on business of Liz Kendall or Ed Davey, but the views on spending of Ed Miliband, or even Jeremy Corbyn.
Sorry. Have just re read that. I wasn't clear. Change "centre right now" to "centre just now" and my point may become more apparent.
My biggest surprise is how long it took for people to realise the obvious; that Sunak was terrible at politics and would likely fall further during an election campaign.
Wet centrists will own this coming defeat for a long time.
He is wet, but not centrist.
Yeah. The entire problem with the Tory Party is that it has become unmoored from where the centre is. Just look at the polls. The centre right now is the far left of the LD's or the extreme right of Labour. It's Liz Kendall. That's where the median voter sits. You've done fuck all to appeal to them. Starmer's done loads. So you don't deserve to win. Or come second.
I wouldn't personally agree that the median voter sits on the centre right, because people are too contradictory.
He or she might have the views on business of Liz Kendall or Ed Davey, but the views on spending of Ed Miliband, or even Jeremy Corbyn.
I'm resigned to the liklihood of little fundamentally changing until something major happens. A war, or an IMF bailout.
Too many (of all ages) have got used to the state providing. That is simply unsustainable given our demographics.
I am a lot less pessimistic. I can see another technology driven productivity boost around the corner, and I do think living standards will rise again pretty soon.
My biggest surprise is how long it took for people to realise the obvious; that Sunak was terrible at politics and would likely fall further during an election campaign.
Wet centrists will own this coming defeat for a long time.
He is wet, but not centrist.
Yeah. The entire problem with the Tory Party is that it has become unmoored from where the centre is. Just look at the polls. The centre right now is the far left of the LD's or the extreme right of Labour. It's Liz Kendall. That's where the median voter sits. You've done fuck all to appeal to them. Starmer's done loads. So you don't deserve to win. Or come second.
I wouldn't personally agree that the median voter sits on the centre right, because people are too contradictory.
He or she might have the views on business of Liz Kendall or Ed Davey, but the views on spending of Ed Miliband, or even Jeremy Corbyn.
I'm resigned to the liklihood of little fundamentally changing until something major happens. A war, or an IMF bailout.
Too many (of all ages) have got used to the state providing. That is simply unsustainable given our demographics.
Well, not necessarily if people accept higher immigration.
That's the key bee in their bonnet of Reform, obviously.
I can only imagine what it is like day to day inside the White House. There is no way he is making any decisions.
Indeed
That’s one of the saddest of all the videos I’ve seen. He’s just pitiable now, it cannot be fun, his wife needs to do the right thing. Imagine him trying to last til 2028??
The way Macron then Meloni have to rescue him, Jeez. This is the President of the USA!
There could have been people out of shot he was giving the thumbs up too, though to be honest he could be a brain dead corpse with no pulse and still get 45-50% against Trump
If it was a one off perhaps, but 2 days ago he forgot he shook somebodies hand within 30s and went to do it again and was totally confused when the person ignored it. Its a daily thing now.
I can only imagine what it is like day to day inside the White House. There is no way he is making any decisions.
Indeed
That’s one of the saddest of all the videos I’ve seen. He’s just pitiable now, it cannot be fun, his wife needs to do the right thing. Imagine him trying to last til 2028??
The way Macron then Meloni have to rescue him, Jeez. This is the President of the USA!
Look at Rishi’s face too. He’s worried. He’s just incapable of acting on it as usual.
Respect to Meloni for having the emotional intelligence to smoothly gather him and make him appear vaguely sane. There are several videos like this from just this one G7 meeting. His decline seems to be accelerating and I’d say there’s a highly credible chance he won’t get the Nom. They just can’t risk a man in his cognitive condition
Eh? Didn’t he go over to talk to that service person on the floor and then she said there’s a guy wanting to take photos over there? Whole load of nothing.
Why the fuck are the media (Sky and the Telegraph to start with today) harping on about Starmer's wife. The Telegraph have a whole headline about her not being at the manifesto launch. What does it matter? We are not electing a president and first lady. Whether or not she is taking any part in the campaign or living her own life is entirely her business and fuck all to do with the media.
Starmer has not in any way 'used' his wife and family as other politicans have done in the past and until and unless he does the media should stay the fuck out of her life.
I am not sure Sunak can fall any further but it hardly matters as nobody is listening to him
Having said that when the 4th July arrives and the country expects a huge landslide do not be surprised if many conservatives hold their nose and vote for the party
Its definitely possible. Hold your nose happens an awful lot.
But, and its a big but.
The remaining people still prone to vote Tory appear to want Farage and not Sunak or any of the 3rd rate Farage wannabes who may survive the electoral cull.
If the current momentum continues - and its accelerating remember - then the stampede to back the Nigel will be similar to the GOP stampede to back Trump.
My biggest surprise is how long it took for people to realise the obvious; that Sunak was terrible at politics and would likely fall further during an election campaign.
Wet centrists will own this coming defeat for a long time.
Are you ever going to accept that Boris and Truss have their share of the responsibility ?
Together with all the other Conservative politicians who have disgraced themselves during sine the last election ?
If you think that Sunak is terrible at politics then what does that say of the rest of the Conservatives party that Sunak was the only person left standing after the previous leadership failings ?
Oh absolutely, Boris and Truss failed as well.
But Sunak has spent the last two years doing fundamentally unConservative things. Growing the state, increasing the tax burden, restricting liberty.
He will not be remembered well by Conservative members.
And I totally agree with you - it shows the Parliamentary party as poor ground politicians. They should have ensured there was a proper contest after Truss resigned. By failing to do so, and then failing to oust Sunak when it became obvious he wasn't up to it, many, perhaps most of them, will end up losing their seats.
Did you vote for Truss in the first leadership election?
My biggest surprise is how long it took for people to realise the obvious; that Sunak was terrible at politics and would likely fall further during an election campaign.
Wet centrists will own this coming defeat for a long time.
Sunak isn't a "wet centrist" though. He's a weird combination of the things centrists can't stand about the Tory right, and the things the Tory right don't like about their party's self-described pragmatists.
So pleases and understands no one.
If the Tories do have a real disaster it's because they'll be a rare example of a party that managed to totally alienate both the moderate end of its voter coalition and its extreme end at the same time. Even Corbyn only managed one of those.
This is an excellent comment. I'm a longtime member and Tory activist, so to me he seems a wet centrist.
Sunak's terrible attempts at triangulation have pushed me to cheering on the coming defeat.
My biggest surprise is how long it took for people to realise the obvious; that Sunak was terrible at politics and would likely fall further during an election campaign.
Wet centrists will own this coming defeat for a long time.
Sunak isn't a "wet centrist" though. He's a weird combination of the things centrists can't stand about the Tory right, and the things the Tory right don't like about their party's self-described pragmatists.
So pleases and understands no one.
If the Tories do have a real disaster it's because they'll be a rare example of a party that managed to totally alienate both the moderate end of its voter coalition and its extreme end at the same time. Even Corbyn only managed one of those.
It's like someone triangulated the perfect man to annoy everyone. Enormously right wing rhetoric and left wing action annoys everyone equally.
Why the fuck are the media (Sky and the Telegraph to start with today) harping on about Starmer's wife. The Telegraph have a whole headline about her not being at the manifesto launch. What does it matter? We are not electing a president and first lady. Whether or not she is taking any part in the campaign or living her own life is entirely her business and fuck all to do with the media.
Starmer has not in any way 'used' his wife and family as other politicans have done in the past and until and unless he does the media should stay the fuck out of her life.
Rant over. Apologies.
It's desperation.
Is there something? Anything. Something as small as an atom that we can throw at them?
I am not sure Sunak can fall any further but it hardly matters as nobody is listening to him
Having said that when the 4th July arrives and the country expects a huge landslide do not be surprised if many conservatives hold their nose and vote for the party
That's where my 25% theory comes from.
I wondered the same. Until my Thatcherite father started talking about voting for Starmer...
Why the fuck are the media (Sky and the Telegraph to start with today) harping on about Starmer's wife. The Telegraph have a whole headline about her not being at the manifesto launch. What does it matter? We are not electing a president and first lady. Whether or not she is taking any part in the campaign or living her own life is entirely her business and fuck all to do with the media.
Starmer has not in any way 'used' his wife and family as other politicans have done in the past and until and unless he does the media should stay the fuck out of her life.
Rant over. Apologies.
They recon they have their dirt and they're determined to use it.
My biggest surprise is how long it took for people to realise the obvious; that Sunak was terrible at politics and would likely fall further during an election campaign.
Wet centrists will own this coming defeat for a long time.
Are you ever going to accept that Boris and Truss have their share of the responsibility ?
Together with all the other Conservative politicians who have disgraced themselves during sine the last election ?
If you think that Sunak is terrible at politics then what does that say of the rest of the Conservatives party that Sunak was the only person left standing after the previous leadership failings ?
Oh absolutely, Boris and Truss failed as well.
But Sunak has spent the last two years doing fundamentally unConservative things. Growing the state, increasing the tax burden, restricting liberty.
He will not be remembered well by Conservative members.
And I totally agree with you - it shows the Parliamentary party as poor ground politicians. They should have ensured there was a proper contest after Truss resigned. By failing to do so, and then failing to oust Sunak when it became obvious he wasn't up to it, many, perhaps most of them, will end up losing their seats.
Did you vote for Truss in the first leadership election?
I did. I was very disappointed that her growth plans failed. I think we would probably both suggest that it was largely her own fault, however....
Why is Labours manifesto called “change” when they want to keep basicly everything exactly the same?
Thank you. I'm glad we're still seeing this side of the Schrodinger's Labour narrative. They are at the same time going to do nothing at all different AND usher in a new Soviet dawn.
Well that’s generally what new Soviet leaders did…..
Heh, but not really. If you know Soviet history, you know that's not often how it went down.
Ooo now this is an interesting discussion. Lots of difference in the “who gets locked up or brutally murdered” sense. Past Stalin, less difference in real policy I would say (until the end).
I don't think that's true apart from the Brezhnev era and his two very short-lived successors. Khrushchev and Gorbachev either side of that did transform things. As did Stalin, horribly. And Lenin before him, very notably indeed.
Yeah, to be fair I was ignoring Khrushchev and the near end of the world.
Why the fuck are the media (Sky and the Telegraph to start with today) harping on about Starmer's wife. The Telegraph have a whole headline about her not being at the manifesto launch. What does it matter? We are not electing a president and first lady. Whether or not she is taking any part in the campaign or living her own life is entirely her business and fuck all to do with the media.
Starmer has not in any way 'used' his wife and family as other politicans have done in the past and until and unless he does the media should stay the fuck out of her life.
Rant over. Apologies.
You know when the Press thought something was a great story but didn't want to touch it our of fear of legals? Well several disreputable outlets have hinted at that.
I can only imagine what it is like day to day inside the White House. There is no way he is making any decisions.
Indeed
That’s one of the saddest of all the videos I’ve seen. He’s just pitiable now, it cannot be fun, his wife needs to do the right thing. Imagine him trying to last til 2028??
The way Macron then Meloni have to rescue him, Jeez. This is the President of the USA!
There could have been people out of shot he was giving the thumbs up too, though to be honest he could be a brain dead corpse with no pulse and still get 45-50% against Trump
If it was a one off perhaps, but 2 days ago he forgot he shook somebodies hand within 30s and went to do it again and was totally confused when the person ignored it. Its a daily thing now.
I can only imagine what it is like day to day inside the White House. There is no way he is making any decisions.
Indeed
That’s one of the saddest of all the videos I’ve seen. He’s just pitiable now, it cannot be fun, his wife needs to do the right thing. Imagine him trying to last til 2028??
The way Macron then Meloni have to rescue him, Jeez. This is the President of the USA!
Look at Rishi’s face too. He’s worried. He’s just incapable of acting on it as usual.
Respect to Meloni for having the emotional intelligence to smoothly gather him and make him appear vaguely sane. There are several videos like this from just this one G7 meeting. His decline seems to be accelerating and I’d say there’s a highly credible chance he won’t get the Nom. They just can’t risk a man in his cognitive condition
Eh? Didn’t he go over to talk to that service person on the floor and then she said there’s a guy wanting to take photos over there? Whole load of nothing.
"It all leaves the president with one option that can be a win for America and, ultimately, his place in history. He can still choose not to run, to cede the field to a Democrat who can win — paging Josh Shapiro or Gretchen Whitmer — and do the hard and brave things it will take to secure security and peace for the free world.
There’s still time, if only just. It would be a courageous, honorable and transformative legacy."
My biggest surprise is how long it took for people to realise the obvious; that Sunak was terrible at politics and would likely fall further during an election campaign.
Wet centrists will own this coming defeat for a long time.
He is wet, but not centrist.
Yeah. The entire problem with the Tory Party is that it has become unmoored from where the centre is. Just look at the polls. The centre right now is the far left of the LD's or the extreme right of Labour. It's Liz Kendall. That's where the median voter sits. You've done fuck all to appeal to them. Starmer's done loads. So you don't deserve to win. Or come second.
I wouldn't personally agree that the median voter sits on the centre right, because people are too contradictory.
He or she might have the views on business of Liz Kendall or Ed Davey, but the views on spending of Ed Miliband, or even Jeremy Corbyn.
I'm resigned to the liklihood of little fundamentally changing until something major happens. A war, or an IMF bailout.
Too many (of all ages) have got used to the state providing. That is simply unsustainable given our demographics.
Well, not necessarily if people accept higher immigration.
That's the key bee in their bonnet of Reform, obviously.
There's little to no evidence the unis selling visas to aspiring deliveroo drivers has helped anything.
Why the fuck are the media (Sky and the Telegraph to start with today) harping on about Starmer's wife. The Telegraph have a whole headline about her not being at the manifesto launch. What does it matter? We are not electing a president and first lady. Whether or not she is taking any part in the campaign or living her own life is entirely her business and fuck all to do with the media.
Starmer has not in any way 'used' his wife and family as other politicans have done in the past and until and unless he does the media should stay the fuck out of her life.
Rant over. Apologies.
Are they? Oh FFS they aren’t using the Guido muck next week are they?
Comments
But if he's willing to take 71 seats, it really is a ravens leaving the tower moment for the Conservatives.
Which is sad, as I fear the Faragist insurgency that's to come will be infinitely worse, and prevent the emergence of a centre-right government for a decade or more.
"See how he does the flower beds ? That's what I want you to be doing."
Can also report that nobody mistook us nor abused us at break time in our blue school outfits, lanyards and ID, for Tory canvassers.
Perhaps they've given up on the possibility they exist?
That is the killer for them
Regarding pronunciation, try putting an extra "f" when you say Banff = "ban'f'f". Or rather, always say one more "f" than whomever you're bandying words with does.
(Perhaps you should clear that with Malcolm f'first?)
I would prefer we remain a separate party though, ironically PR probably makes that more likely than FPTP if the Tories fall under 100 seats
Wet centrists will own this coming defeat for a long time.
Having said that when the 4th July arrives and the country expects a huge landslide do not be surprised if many conservatives hold their nose and vote for the party
Angela is surprisingly good.
I've been looking at digital nomad-y stuff since Leon highlighted the new Thailand visa earlier this week.
The entire problem with the Tory Party is that it has become unmoored from where the centre is.
Just look at the polls. The centre right now is the far left of the LD's or the extreme right of Labour.
It's Liz Kendall.
That's where the median voter sits.
You've done fuck all to appeal to them. Starmer's done loads. So you don't deserve to win. Or come second.
And they don't want the Conservatives.
He's just shit.
Thanks to Rishi "Ferfuxsake" Sunak!
One moment he is putting up NI and introducing NI++, next he is promising to abolish it.
He or she might have the views on business of Liz Kendall or Ed Davey, but the views on spending of Ed Miliband, or even Jeremy Corbyn.
Together with all the other Conservative politicians who have disgraced themselves during sine the last election ?
If you think that Sunak is terrible at politics then what does that say of the rest of the Conservatives party that Sunak was the only person left standing after the previous leadership failings ?
Too many (of all ages) have got used to the state providing. That is simply unsustainable given our demographics.
The smooth peaceful transition of power is one of Britain’s markers as a democratic Western society.
But it would still be a historically catastrophic record breaking low for a governing Party.
We live in interesting times!
So pleases and understands no one.
If the Tories do have a real disaster it's because they'll be a rare example of a party that managed to totally alienate both the moderate end of its voter coalition and its extreme end at the same time. Even Corbyn only managed one of those.
But Sunak has spent the last two years doing fundamentally unConservative things. Growing the state, increasing the tax burden, restricting liberty.
He will not be remembered well by Conservative members.
And I totally agree with you - it shows the Parliamentary party as poor ground politicians. They should have ensured there was a proper contest after Truss resigned. By failing to do so, and then failing to oust Sunak when it became obvious he wasn't up to it, many, perhaps most of them, will end up losing their seats.
That's the key bee in their bonnet of Reform, obviously.
https://x.com/mylordbebo/status/1801143195247526195?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
Biden trying to give a speech at the G7
https://x.com/stillgray/status/1801329462979793012?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
There are loads of vids from just this one summit
Why the fuck are the media (Sky and the Telegraph to start with today) harping on about Starmer's wife. The Telegraph have a whole headline about her not being at the manifesto launch. What does it matter? We are not electing a president and first lady. Whether or not she is taking any part in the campaign or living her own life is entirely her business and fuck all to do with the media.
Starmer has not in any way 'used' his wife and family as other politicans have done in the past and until and unless he does the media should stay the fuck out of her life.
Rant over. Apologies.
But, and its a big but.
The remaining people still prone to vote Tory appear to want Farage and not Sunak or any of the 3rd rate Farage wannabes who may survive the electoral cull.
If the current momentum continues - and its accelerating remember - then the stampede to back the Nigel will be similar to the GOP stampede to back Trump.
Sunak's terrible attempts at triangulation have pushed me to cheering on the coming defeat.
Is there something? Anything. Something as small as an atom that we can throw at them?
There’s still time, if only just. It would be a courageous, honorable and transformative legacy."
Bret Stephens - NY Times.
Not going to happen of course.