It has arrived as predicted. The YouGov poll showing the Tories coming third. Now the debate on here will rage about whether the Tories get 50 seats or below.After election night the debate will continue. How did the Tories get 150, 175, 200 seats? Because people lied about who they were going to vote and several polling companies got it wrong, how why? That is the mystery. To panic Tory voters for example into voting for the party that in their heart of hearts they support. I post this now and anyone who agrees with me fantanstic. The majority will say I am wrong and it is hurting Labour etc. Rubbish. For the people who bet on this site if you are putting your money down on this poll and others like it you may as well put your money down the nearest drain. The odd person on here will thank me after the election is done and I am proved right. If I am wrong I will accept it after the election is over. Until then I will stick to my view. The debaters on here will vehemently diagree with me and justify why they are right and I am wrong. I have news for you.Do not be conned.Think outside the box.
I keep saying I think the Tories will get at least 25%, despite the polls.
That is my betting position too, but not looking a wise one. I was expecting some swingback.
I didn't think Sunak to run a good campaign, but I wasn't expecting a cross between Frank Spencer and Sideshow Bob.
If he's Sideshow Bob, at least he can definitively rebut Farage by proclaiming He Is an Englishman.
Hahah. If you extrapolate those trends (absurd but fun) Labour end up about 33%, Reform end up around 26%, the Tories and LDs both get about 15%
Baxtered:
Labour: 375 Reform: 127 LDs: 67 Con: 39
Starmer is PM. Farage is the LOTO
By the election of 2028 the rump of the Tories have been absorbed into Reform and Farage becomes PM
More and more the people who say this election is dull mystify me. It has got absolutely everything, including the potential to be the most change making election since at least 1945. And I think the actual outcome remains fairly obscure, with only clear bit being that Labour will lead the next government.
Maybe we've been looking in the wrong party for the Portillo moment of this election. It could be someone who would have had a place in Starmer's cabinet losing their seat unexpectedly to Reform.
Someone like Lisa Nandy could be vulnerable.
Can tell you aren't a Wiganer.
Her majority was slashed by 10k votes by BoJo and the Tory + Brexit Party vote last time was neck-and-neck with Labour.
Three points. First. The Tory +Reform polling is nowhere near the Tory score at the last election. Whereas the Labour polling is up substantially. Second. Lisa Nandy is extremely popular locally. Even with her opponents. Thirdly. Wigan is gentrifying at a rapid pace. It has seen some of the highest rises in rental prices in the country. It's commutable to Liverpool and Manchester and on the WCML to London, Birmingham and Glasgow. It isn't the deprived ex-pit town of my youth. I'd look elsewhere for potential Red Wall Reform gains. Ironically, Makerfield is a much better bet. That's the down at heel collection of small pit towns scattered to the south of Wigan. Which doesn't have a potential senior Cabinet Minister standing. Nor indeed an incumbent at all. Not that I reckon they'll win there either.
DATA TABLES for tonights YG shows before reallocation of DKs are out
Lab 29 Ref 15 Con 11 LD 10 DKs 15
This has the potential to result in anything
People not qualified to comment if they dont understand Data Tables!!
And you do? Judging by the bilge you posted y’day you clearly don’t.
But I’m not surprised you want to shut down discussion of your theory if you don’t believe in democracy.
Sorry pal but you are too thick to engage with if you think people surveyed are seats
You can PM me if you need advice in how to read data tables!
I’m not your “pal”, and I guess most peeps would not call me thick.
Yesterday you posted numbers and seats. Don’t try and deny it.
I don’t feel the need to insult you back but I do note that you seem to be doing that to just about everybody on this forum. I wish you well with your 13/8 bet ref. 2017 which looks a decent one. Most everything else you post though is too off-beam to take my, or many other people’s, time.
Away from British politics, an even bigger KABOOM might be the agreement Biden and Zelensky have signed today.
Great to see America once more arming Ukraine after the delay by a Republican minority in Congress has been overcome.
Biden now pledging more aid to Ukraine including F16s and hinting at more Patriot missiles.
And $50bn of frozen Russian assets to fund military aid to Ukraine too. Good!
Ukraine have now destroyed enough air defences in Crimea that Russia is deploying its only S-500 system to Crimea. We'll see if Ukraine can take that out too, before the F-16s enter Ukrainian service.
"Labour say they'll use the spare capacity in the private healthcare sector"
There's no spare capacity, its taken from the NHS. What Labour should do is build capacity in the NHS, not undermine it by diverting tax payers cash to build the pvt sector profiteers.
However Lab Donors are hang on pvt sector health lobbyists
Much as I dislike it, in the short term the private sectoris the only place that can be used to expand capacity.
The key is to treat it as a temporary prop while building permanent capacity of both people and buildings, otherwise elective surgery will go the same way as NHS dentistry.
I’ll believe this is Clegg 2.0 until we are closer to election day.
Possibly. LD warnings about 2019 as well - and that reform was utterly absurd. We got told to go fight all kinds of stretch seats until the last 2 weeks when internal polls showed we could lose Swinson and Farron.
This doesn't feel like that, or 2010. The momentum towards ELE has been visible for a year. More. Had there been a Daveygasm, with Ed's fun strategy getting everyone going FUCK ME THAT'S BRILLIANT as they did with Clegg, then maybe it would just be a 2010-style bubble.
I come back to fantasy vs reality. Tories on fantasy island refusing to accept what they have done, and they're going to be annihilated for it.
How many seats, national % shares, who is the opposition - all up in the air. A chaos election produces chaos results.
This is why I can't vote for you. You use a word like "Daveygasm" when a better word like
Tories are sub 20 with 4 pollsters. Its over. They will disintegrate over the next 3 weeks. I cant see them being the opposition.
Yes. Lets pull this movement apart: 1) Labour are shedding the soft vote that had herded into their column. Losing a few to Green, more to LibDem, some to Reform. That will reduce the number of seats they win and the majorities they get in those seats 2) LibDems are getting a lot of attention and people like what they see. Not relevant nationally, but the target seats focus and the willingness to vote tactically will pay out. I know the party is playing it down citing past elections, but Sarah Olney's tale of woe last night is a tale of elections past, not the one in front of us 3) Reform are transformed - the Nigel has doubled their support and the Tory dam is breaking. That Jenkyns leaflet won't be the only one. Once the dam breaks properly the surge of Tory votes to Reform is unstoppable now - watch the flow accelerate the closer we get to polling day 4) Sorry Tories, its the end. Nobody is listening to you, and the bits they hear they laugh at - openly, to your face.
Unless something radical happens to abruptly reverse it, this is going to be the biggest electoral shift for a century. The Tories have launched the manifesto now, its not going to pull a Farage-shooting rabbit out of the hat. And "don't give Labour a super-majority?" Not remotely enough when voters are now heading off to spread their votes about away from Labour.
I know that ELE is "it couldn't happen here". But it IS. Look. Listen. Think. What possibly can avert it now? Fear of that anodyne Labour offer? Fear of Farage? A sudden "poor Rishi lets vote for him after all" movement?
I have no clue what that means for seats. It's going to be fun.
I mean this in the nicest possible way:
You must be shitting yourself you might actually win
"Labour say they'll use the spare capacity in the private healthcare sector"
There's no spare capacity, its taken from the NHS. What Labour should do is build capacity in the NHS, not undermine it by diverting tax payers cash to build the pvt sector profiteers.
However Lab Donors are hang on pvt sector health lobbyists
Much as I dislike it, in the short term the private sectoris the only place that can be used to expand capacity.
The key is to treat it as a temporary prop while building permanent capacity of both people and buildings, otherwise elective surgery will go the same way as NHS dentistry.
I can't say that I am enjoying this election. The Tories are not really my team but jeez.
Labour are getting away with promising something at the margins. And not being Tories. That is enough, apparently. Sunak has been a poor PM, no argument, but I don't think he deserves this. I will be glad when its over.
Aren't they? I had you down as a dyed in the wool Conservative. Have I got you totally wrong?
Me too. I have questions to answer to myself if DavidL is not a true blue Conservative.
DATA TABLES for tonights YG shows before reallocation of DKs are out
Lab 29 Ref 15 Con 11 LD 10 DKs 15
This has the potential to result in anything
People not qualified to comment if they dont understand Data Tables!!
And you do? Judging by the bilge you posted y’day you clearly don’t.
But I’m not surprised you want to shut down discussion of your theory if you don’t believe in democracy.
Sorry pal but you are too thick to engage with if you think people surveyed are seats
You can PM me if you need advice in how to read data tables!
I’m not your “pal”, and I guess most peeps would not call me thick.
Yesterday you posted numbers and seats. Don’t try and deny it.
I don’t feel the need to insult you back but I do note that you seem to be doing that to just about everybody on this forum. I wish you well with your 13/8 bet ref. 2017 which looks a decent one.
No I didn't go find me a post where i mentioned seats and i will pay £20 to a charity of your choice
Of course when you realise i didn't and you completely misinterpreted it i will let you donate the same some to my charity.
And as per my bet I got 8/1 two weeks ago not 13/8
I can't say that I am enjoying this election. The Tories are not really my team but jeez.
Labour are getting away with promising something at the margins. And not being Tories. That is enough, apparently. Sunak has been a poor PM, no argument, but I don't think he deserves this. I will be glad when its over.
Aren't they? I had you down as a dyed in the wool Conservative. Have I got you totally wrong?
No particular reason for you to read my posts but I have been very critical of the Tories for a long time. The rank dishonesty of Boris, the utter incompetence of Truss and the ineptitude of Sunak. I was disgusted with the HS2 decision, the abandonment of levelling up, the dishonesty of giving tax cuts whilst actually increasing taxes, the lack of focus on growth, the cowardice of just throwing our money at every problem that came along. And, of course, the moral turpitude and performative cruelty of the Rwanda policy. It's been terrible but I still can't believe more than 15% of my fellow citizens are going to vote for Reform.
Tories are sub 20 with 4 pollsters. Its over. They will disintegrate over the next 3 weeks. I cant see them being the opposition.
Yes. Lets pull this movement apart: 1) Labour are shedding the soft vote that had herded into their column. Losing a few to Green, more to LibDem, some to Reform. That will reduce the number of seats they win and the majorities they get in those seats 2) LibDems are getting a lot of attention and people like what they see. Not relevant nationally, but the target seats focus and the willingness to vote tactically will pay out. I know the party is playing it down citing past elections, but Sarah Olney's tale of woe last night is a tale of elections past, not the one in front of us 3) Reform are transformed - the Nigel has doubled their support and the Tory dam is breaking. That Jenkyns leaflet won't be the only one. Once the dam breaks properly the surge of Tory votes to Reform is unstoppable now - watch the flow accelerate the closer we get to polling day 4) Sorry Tories, its the end. Nobody is listening to you, and the bits they hear they laugh at - openly, to your face.
Unless something radical happens to abruptly reverse it, this is going to be the biggest electoral shift for a century. The Tories have launched the manifesto now, its not going to pull a Farage-shooting rabbit out of the hat. And "don't give Labour a super-majority?" Not remotely enough when voters are now heading off to spread their votes about away from Labour.
I know that ELE is "it couldn't happen here". But it IS. Look. Listen. Think. What possibly can avert it now? Fear of that anodyne Labour offer? Fear of Farage? A sudden "poor Rishi lets vote for him after all" movement?
I have no clue what that means for seats. It's going to be fun.
I mean this in the nicest possible way:
You must be shitting yourself you might actually win
Rochdale would make an above average MP, I think ?
"Labour say they'll use the spare capacity in the private healthcare sector"
There's no spare capacity, its taken from the NHS. What Labour should do is build capacity in the NHS, not undermine it by diverting tax payers cash to build the pvt sector profiteers.
However Lab Donors are hang on pvt sector health lobbyists
Much as I dislike it, in the short term the private sectoris the only place that can be used to expand capacity.
The key is to treat it as a temporary prop while building permanent capacity of both people and buildings, otherwise elective surgery will go the same way as NHS dentistry.
Since you're around @Foxy , went to an unrelated GP appointment on Wednesday and it is her view that the Pubic Hair Question is not an issue. Especially given the Saurus family heritage.
Also learned a tidbit - that apparently Punjabis are especially hairy. No such heritage in family Dumbosaurus, but it was nice trivia.
I’ll believe this is Clegg 2.0 until we are closer to election day.
Possibly. LD warnings about 2019 as well - and that reform was utterly absurd. We got told to go fight all kinds of stretch seats until the last 2 weeks when internal polls showed we could lose Swinson and Farron.
This doesn't feel like that, or 2010. The momentum towards ELE has been visible for a year. More. Had there been a Daveygasm, with Ed's fun strategy getting everyone going FUCK ME THAT'S BRILLIANT as they did with Clegg, then maybe it would just be a 2010-style bubble.
I come back to fantasy vs reality. Tories on fantasy island refusing to accept what they have done, and they're going to be annihilated for it.
How many seats, national % shares, who is the opposition - all up in the air. A chaos election produces chaos results.
This is why I can't vote for you. You use a word like "Daveygasm" when a better word like
Maybe we've been looking in the wrong party for the Portillo moment of this election. It could be someone who would have had a place in Starmer's cabinet losing their seat unexpectedly to Reform.
Someone like Lisa Nandy could be vulnerable.
Can tell you aren't a Wiganer.
Her majority was slashed by 10k votes by BoJo and the Tory + Brexit Party vote last time was neck-and-neck with Labour.
Three points. First. The Tory +Reform polling is nowhere near the Tory score at the last election. Whereas the Labour polling is up substantially. Second. Lisa Nandy is extremely popular locally. Even with her opponents. Thirdly. Wigan is gentrifying at a rapid pace. It has seen some of the highest rises in rental prices in the country. It's commutable to Liverpool and Manchester and on the WCML to London, Birmingham and Glasgow. It isn't the deprived ex-pit town of my youth. I'd look elsewhere for potential Red Wall Reform gains. Ironically, Makerfield is a much better bet. That's the down at heel collection of small pit towns scattered to the south of Wigan. Which doesn't have a potential senior Cabinet Minister standing. Nor indeed an incumbent at all. Not that I reckon they'll win there either.
Yep, you do know Wigan, and I agree re places like Makerfield. But Reform won’t win there either. It’s the old to whom they appeal.
I can't say that I am enjoying this election. The Tories are not really my team but jeez.
Labour are getting away with promising something at the margins. And not being Tories. That is enough, apparently. Sunak has been a poor PM, no argument, but I don't think he deserves this. I will be glad when its over.
Aren't they? I had you down as a dyed in the wool Conservative. Have I got you totally wrong?
No particular reason for you to read my posts but I have been very critical of the Tories for a long time. The rank dishonesty of Boris, the utter incompetence of Truss and the ineptitude of Sunak. I was disgusted with the HS2 decision, the abandonment of levelling up, the dishonesty of giving tax cuts whilst actually increasing taxes, the lack of focus on growth, the cowardice of just throwing our money at every problem that came along. And, of course, the moral turpitude and performative cruelty of the Rwanda policy. It's been terrible but I still can't believe more than 15% of my fellow citizens are going to vote for Reform.
I do read your posts, and I remember some of the above. The question was genuine, and I do think you can be critical, very critical, of a party and still affiliate with them. But if you say you aren't, I take you at your word.
Tactical voting on the right comes into play. This needs voter awareness of Reform/Tory strength in their constituencies
Which is practically non-existent I suspect whereas the sea of orange diamonds in the Lib Dems target seats give a clear indication to anti-Tory tactical voters as to where to put their cross.
This is where the ground war and the posters become significant. Genuine question -do Reform actually have bodies on the ground?. Has anyone been canvassed by Reform or seen a poster?
Tories are sub 20 with 4 pollsters. Its over. They will disintegrate over the next 3 weeks. I cant see them being the opposition.
Yes. Lets pull this movement apart: 1) Labour are shedding the soft vote that had herded into their column. Losing a few to Green, more to LibDem, some to Reform. That will reduce the number of seats they win and the majorities they get in those seats 2) LibDems are getting a lot of attention and people like what they see. Not relevant nationally, but the target seats focus and the willingness to vote tactically will pay out. I know the party is playing it down citing past elections, but Sarah Olney's tale of woe last night is a tale of elections past, not the one in front of us 3) Reform are transformed - the Nigel has doubled their support and the Tory dam is breaking. That Jenkyns leaflet won't be the only one. Once the dam breaks properly the surge of Tory votes to Reform is unstoppable now - watch the flow accelerate the closer we get to polling day 4) Sorry Tories, its the end. Nobody is listening to you, and the bits they hear they laugh at - openly, to your face.
Unless something radical happens to abruptly reverse it, this is going to be the biggest electoral shift for a century. The Tories have launched the manifesto now, its not going to pull a Farage-shooting rabbit out of the hat. And "don't give Labour a super-majority?" Not remotely enough when voters are now heading off to spread their votes about away from Labour.
I know that ELE is "it couldn't happen here". But it IS. Look. Listen. Think. What possibly can avert it now? Fear of that anodyne Labour offer? Fear of Farage? A sudden "poor Rishi lets vote for him after all" movement?
I have no clue what that means for seats. It's going to be fun.
I mean this in the nicest possible way:
You must be shitting yourself you might actually win
Rochdale would make an above average MP, I think ?
(Admittedly that’s not the highest of bars.)
Oh I hope he does. Actually as (part of being) a kid I didn't live very far away from his seat - village/town called Cullen.
But I doubt Mrs Rochdale thought he would win when she gave him permission to run. I'm just making that sentence up though based on what most marriages are like. Who knows. It's a bit unfair cause he surely cannot be expected to answer anyway. So I'll leave it there
DATA TABLES for tonights YG shows before reallocation of DKs are out
Lab 29 Ref 15 Con 11 LD 10 DKs 15
This has the potential to result in anything
People not qualified to comment if they dont understand Data Tables!!
And you do? Judging by the bilge you posted y’day you clearly don’t.
But I’m not surprised you want to shut down discussion of your theory if you don’t believe in democracy.
Sorry pal but you are too thick to engage with if you think people surveyed are seats
You can PM me if you need advice in how to read data tables!
I’m not your “pal”, and I guess most peeps would not call me thick.
Yesterday you posted numbers and seats. Don’t try and deny it.
I don’t feel the need to insult you back but I do note that you seem to be doing that to just about everybody on this forum. I wish you well with your 13/8 bet ref. 2017 which looks a decent one.
No I didn't go find me a post where i mentioned seats and i will pay £20 to a charity of your choice
Of course when you realise i didn't and you completely misinterpreted it i will let you donate the same some to my charity.
And as per my bet I got 8/1 two weeks ago not 13/8
Just to support you here, you didn’t post seats.
You posted numbers that could look a bit like seats if you squinted. But you didn’t post seats.
I’ll believe this is Clegg 2.0 until we are closer to election day.
Possibly. LD warnings about 2019 as well - and that reform was utterly absurd. We got told to go fight all kinds of stretch seats until the last 2 weeks when internal polls showed we could lose Swinson and Farron.
This doesn't feel like that, or 2010. The momentum towards ELE has been visible for a year. More. Had there been a Daveygasm, with Ed's fun strategy getting everyone going FUCK ME THAT'S BRILLIANT as they did with Clegg, then maybe it would just be a 2010-style bubble.
I come back to fantasy vs reality. Tories on fantasy island refusing to accept what they have done, and they're going to be annihilated for it.
How many seats, national % shares, who is the opposition - all up in the air. A chaos election produces chaos results.
This is why I can't vote for you. You use a word like "Daveygasm" when a better word like
Tories are sub 20 with 4 pollsters. Its over. They will disintegrate over the next 3 weeks. I cant see them being the opposition.
Yes. Lets pull this movement apart: 1) Labour are shedding the soft vote that had herded into their column. Losing a few to Green, more to LibDem, some to Reform. That will reduce the number of seats they win and the majorities they get in those seats 2) LibDems are getting a lot of attention and people like what they see. Not relevant nationally, but the target seats focus and the willingness to vote tactically will pay out. I know the party is playing it down citing past elections, but Sarah Olney's tale of woe last night is a tale of elections past, not the one in front of us 3) Reform are transformed - the Nigel has doubled their support and the Tory dam is breaking. That Jenkyns leaflet won't be the only one. Once the dam breaks properly the surge of Tory votes to Reform is unstoppable now - watch the flow accelerate the closer we get to polling day 4) Sorry Tories, its the end. Nobody is listening to you, and the bits they hear they laugh at - openly, to your face.
Unless something radical happens to abruptly reverse it, this is going to be the biggest electoral shift for a century. The Tories have launched the manifesto now, its not going to pull a Farage-shooting rabbit out of the hat. And "don't give Labour a super-majority?" Not remotely enough when voters are now heading off to spread their votes about away from Labour.
I know that ELE is "it couldn't happen here". But it IS. Look. Listen. Think. What possibly can avert it now? Fear of that anodyne Labour offer? Fear of Farage? A sudden "poor Rishi lets vote for him after all" movement?
I have no clue what that means for seats. It's going to be fun.
I mean this in the nicest possible way:
You must be shitting yourself you might actually win
Rochdale would make an above average MP, I think ?
(Admittedly that’s not the highest of bars.)
Oh I hope he does. Actually as (part of being) a kid I didn't live very far away from his seat - village/town called Cullen.
But I doubt Mrs Rochdale thought he would win when she gave him permission to run. I'm just making that sentence up though based on what most marriages are like. Who knows. It's a bit unfair cause he surely cannot be expected to answer anyway. So I'll leave it there
Tories are sub 20 with 4 pollsters. Its over. They will disintegrate over the next 3 weeks. I cant see them being the opposition.
Yes. Lets pull this movement apart: 1) Labour are shedding the soft vote that had herded into their column. Losing a few to Green, more to LibDem, some to Reform. That will reduce the number of seats they win and the majorities they get in those seats 2) LibDems are getting a lot of attention and people like what they see. Not relevant nationally, but the target seats focus and the willingness to vote tactically will pay out. I know the party is playing it down citing past elections, but Sarah Olney's tale of woe last night is a tale of elections past, not the one in front of us 3) Reform are transformed - the Nigel has doubled their support and the Tory dam is breaking. That Jenkyns leaflet won't be the only one. Once the dam breaks properly the surge of Tory votes to Reform is unstoppable now - watch the flow accelerate the closer we get to polling day 4) Sorry Tories, its the end. Nobody is listening to you, and the bits they hear they laugh at - openly, to your face.
Unless something radical happens to abruptly reverse it, this is going to be the biggest electoral shift for a century. The Tories have launched the manifesto now, its not going to pull a Farage-shooting rabbit out of the hat. And "don't give Labour a super-majority?" Not remotely enough when voters are now heading off to spread their votes about away from Labour.
I know that ELE is "it couldn't happen here". But it IS. Look. Listen. Think. What possibly can avert it now? Fear of that anodyne Labour offer? Fear of Farage? A sudden "poor Rishi lets vote for him after all" movement?
I have no clue what that means for seats. It's going to be fun.
I mean this in the nicest possible way:
You must be shitting yourself you might actually win
Had a call with the campaign team earlier. We're increasing spending on Facebook advertising...
Tories are sub 20 with 4 pollsters. Its over. They will disintegrate over the next 3 weeks. I cant see them being the opposition.
Yes. Lets pull this movement apart: 1) Labour are shedding the soft vote that had herded into their column. Losing a few to Green, more to LibDem, some to Reform. That will reduce the number of seats they win and the majorities they get in those seats 2) LibDems are getting a lot of attention and people like what they see. Not relevant nationally, but the target seats focus and the willingness to vote tactically will pay out. I know the party is playing it down citing past elections, but Sarah Olney's tale of woe last night is a tale of elections past, not the one in front of us 3) Reform are transformed - the Nigel has doubled their support and the Tory dam is breaking. That Jenkyns leaflet won't be the only one. Once the dam breaks properly the surge of Tory votes to Reform is unstoppable now - watch the flow accelerate the closer we get to polling day 4) Sorry Tories, its the end. Nobody is listening to you, and the bits they hear they laugh at - openly, to your face.
Unless something radical happens to abruptly reverse it, this is going to be the biggest electoral shift for a century. The Tories have launched the manifesto now, its not going to pull a Farage-shooting rabbit out of the hat. And "don't give Labour a super-majority?" Not remotely enough when voters are now heading off to spread their votes about away from Labour.
I know that ELE is "it couldn't happen here". But it IS. Look. Listen. Think. What possibly can avert it now? Fear of that anodyne Labour offer? Fear of Farage? A sudden "poor Rishi lets vote for him after all" movement?
I have no clue what that means for seats. It's going to be fun.
And the thing is, even if Labour had got to a majority of 1 from their starting point, that would already have been an implausibly huge shift. Now we're in a situation where even a sensible, nothing to worry about for 4-5 years majority (40 or so?) would feel like a... not quite a failure, but a let down from here.
If 1997 was the meterorite that killed the dinosaurs, this has the potential to be like the one that broke off a part of planet Earth to become the Moon.
Meanwhile, the latest Rosindellgram came through my letterbox today. Some very high-pitched "don't vote Reform, that will let Labour in and that will make Khan happy" stuff.
Looking forward to receiving mine. The Tories have been unusually quiet so far. No foot soldiers apart from their councillors, perhaps?
I can't say that I am enjoying this election. The Tories are not really my team but jeez.
Labour are getting away with promising something at the margins. And not being Tories. That is enough, apparently. Sunak has been a poor PM, no argument, but I don't think he deserves this. I will be glad when its over.
Aren't they? I had you down as a dyed in the wool Conservative. Have I got you totally wrong?
No particular reason for you to read my posts but I have been very critical of the Tories for a long time. The rank dishonesty of Boris, the utter incompetence of Truss and the ineptitude of Sunak. I was disgusted with the HS2 decision, the abandonment of levelling up, the dishonesty of giving tax cuts whilst actually increasing taxes, the lack of focus on growth, the cowardice of just throwing our money at every problem that came along. And, of course, the moral turpitude and performative cruelty of the Rwanda policy. It's been terrible but I still can't believe more than 15% of my fellow citizens are going to vote for Reform.
Fifteen percent or so is what UKIP have been scoring in Euro elections since about 2004. There's a market for what they promise. (And I can see why what they promise is popular, it's just that it's contradictory nonsense.) On top of that, the Conservatives promised a distinctly UKIP-y moon on a stick in 2019. That legitimised the desire for Faragey stuff without delivering it, because of its fundamental undeliverability.
Jack Fifield @jackfifield Fuller's sign is gone by October 2022 so this predates that month at least. Elbow bump would suggest during COVID restrictions to me. Last street view image with similar plants as video was September 2020, replaced with different plants by March 2021.
Tactical voting on the right comes into play. This needs voter awareness of Reform/Tory strength in their constituencies
Which is practically non-existent I suspect whereas the sea of orange diamonds in the Lib Dems target seats give a clear indication to anti-Tory tactical voters as to where to put their cross.
This is where the ground war and the posters become significant. Genuine question -do Reform actually have bodies on the ground?. Has anyone been canvassed by Reform or seen a poster?
I don't think we will see any local campaigning apart from A few target seats and the free mailshot.
I'm sure this has been mentioned but YouGov is NOT an opinion poll - it's a voting projection based on its MRP model. Also worth mentioning the DKs are at 15% which is a bit higher than some other recent polls.
Techne is a 7-10 likelihood of voting at 68%.
Techne has DKs at 10% which is more in line with other pollsters. The actual moves are within margin of error and the Labour lead is unchanged at 23.
Is there something happening? I'm not sure and YouGov isn't convincing me. The other pollsters seem to be herding.
Well it’s certainly going to be a media story, at least until the Euros. Much as I dislike Leon’s silly ramping about literally every topic he can troll us on, occasionally he has just cause.
This is a big moment. No one wants to back a loser. This could generate its own momentum. The Big Mo I believe they used to call it. Is that right? Reagan?
According to Nate Silver, there is no evidence of momentum in (US) opinion polling: that is the last move in vote share, tells you nothing about the next one, and it is as likely to snap back as continue onward.
With that said, I think it's clearly different in a multi-party world, and I think it's about vote efficiency. If you a right wing voter, and you are fairly agnostic about where to cast your vote (so long as it is right of center), then clearly the rise of Reform encourages you to choose them over the Conservatives.
Tories are sub 20 with 4 pollsters. Its over. They will disintegrate over the next 3 weeks. I cant see them being the opposition.
Yes. Lets pull this movement apart: 1) Labour are shedding the soft vote that had herded into their column. Losing a few to Green, more to LibDem, some to Reform. That will reduce the number of seats they win and the majorities they get in those seats 2) LibDems are getting a lot of attention and people like what they see. Not relevant nationally, but the target seats focus and the willingness to vote tactically will pay out. I know the party is playing it down citing past elections, but Sarah Olney's tale of woe last night is a tale of elections past, not the one in front of us 3) Reform are transformed - the Nigel has doubled their support and the Tory dam is breaking. That Jenkyns leaflet won't be the only one. Once the dam breaks properly the surge of Tory votes to Reform is unstoppable now - watch the flow accelerate the closer we get to polling day 4) Sorry Tories, its the end. Nobody is listening to you, and the bits they hear they laugh at - openly, to your face.
Unless something radical happens to abruptly reverse it, this is going to be the biggest electoral shift for a century. The Tories have launched the manifesto now, its not going to pull a Farage-shooting rabbit out of the hat. And "don't give Labour a super-majority?" Not remotely enough when voters are now heading off to spread their votes about away from Labour.
I know that ELE is "it couldn't happen here". But it IS. Look. Listen. Think. What possibly can avert it now? Fear of that anodyne Labour offer? Fear of Farage? A sudden "poor Rishi lets vote for him after all" movement?
I have no clue what that means for seats. It's going to be fun.
I mean this in the nicest possible way:
You must be shitting yourself you might actually win
Rochdale would make an above average MP, I think ?
(Admittedly that’s not the highest of bars.)
I have a problem - I get bored toeing the line. I've got to where I have professionally by putting frank honesty out instead of excuses. "We fucked up, we're sorry, here's how we're making it right". Works far better than denial, spin and bullshit.
I can't say that I am enjoying this election. The Tories are not really my team but jeez.
Labour are getting away with promising something at the margins. And not being Tories. That is enough, apparently. Sunak has been a poor PM, no argument, but I don't think he deserves this. I will be glad when its over.
Aren't they? I had you down as a dyed in the wool Conservative. Have I got you totally wrong?
No particular reason for you to read my posts but I have been very critical of the Tories for a long time. The rank dishonesty of Boris, the utter incompetence of Truss and the ineptitude of Sunak. I was disgusted with the HS2 decision, the abandonment of levelling up, the dishonesty of giving tax cuts whilst actually increasing taxes, the lack of focus on growth, the cowardice of just throwing our money at every problem that came along. And, of course, the moral turpitude and performative cruelty of the Rwanda policy. It's been terrible but I still can't believe more than 15% of my fellow citizens are going to vote for Reform.
I do read your posts, and I remember some of the above. The question was genuine, and I do think you can be critical, very critical, of a party and still affiliate with them. But if you say you aren't, I take you at your word.
I will vote for them. But that is an anti SNP vote, its no endorsement of what they have done over the last couple of years. I have done nothing for them this election which is a change from the last several elections.
I’m shocked that the Tories so far have received no bounce from their manifesto . They were essentially handing out money . So either the public don’t believe they can deliver on those pledges or they just hate the party and want them eviscerated.
There was no blockbuster policy to say "ooh look at this". Because Sunak is a boring Excel guy.
There was, there was National Service as his blockbuster policy.
To which we took one look at stepped back in horror and said "f**k right off then".
That's the problem, the Tories already shot their load at the start of the campaign, and it was a terrible, terrible load too.
There is a twisted side of me that hopes for a Labour government for the rest of Farage’s life which takes the UK back into the EU, adopts the Euro, institutes compulsory Critical Race Theory lessons for all schoolchildren and introduces the daily national pledge to the NHS, like the kids in the US to their flag.
And as he lies on his death bed, the Rev Rishi Sunak, recently returned from his seminary in California, whispers in his ear, well we will never know what.
2010 general election campaign PB Angus Reid Poll about three weeks out
LD 33% Con 32% Lab 23%
Conclusion, polls three weeks out are not always reliable.
Cleggasm Vs Nigegasm ?
It’s all a load of old bollocks isn’t it?
Press feeding frenzy incoming on the creeps and weirdos who are Reform's candidates. Which I think will restore a sense of proportion.
They're already doing that. And Reform seem to still be rising in the polls. Perhaps people don't feel like being coralled into voting for parties who have a consensus of making them poor, just because the media is planning to dredge up every gamey thing every Reform candidate has ever said online. Oh well.
I can't say that I am enjoying this election. The Tories are not really my team but jeez.
Labour are getting away with promising something at the margins. And not being Tories. That is enough, apparently. Sunak has been a poor PM, no argument, but I don't think he deserves this. I will be glad when its over.
Aren't they? I had you down as a dyed in the wool Conservative. Have I got you totally wrong?
No particular reason for you to read my posts but I have been very critical of the Tories for a long time. The rank dishonesty of Boris, the utter incompetence of Truss and the ineptitude of Sunak. I was disgusted with the HS2 decision, the abandonment of levelling up, the dishonesty of giving tax cuts whilst actually increasing taxes, the lack of focus on growth, the cowardice of just throwing our money at every problem that came along. And, of course, the moral turpitude and performative cruelty of the Rwanda policy. It's been terrible but I still can't believe more than 15% of my fellow citizens are going to vote for Reform.
To add to the problems, the level of regulation that the conservative party have bought in. They started out in 2010 as pro deregulation but over the past few years they have bought in lots of new regulation, most of it massively frustrating.
Tories are sub 20 with 4 pollsters. Its over. They will disintegrate over the next 3 weeks. I cant see them being the opposition.
Yes. Lets pull this movement apart: 1) Labour are shedding the soft vote that had herded into their column. Losing a few to Green, more to LibDem, some to Reform. That will reduce the number of seats they win and the majorities they get in those seats 2) LibDems are getting a lot of attention and people like what they see. Not relevant nationally, but the target seats focus and the willingness to vote tactically will pay out. I know the party is playing it down citing past elections, but Sarah Olney's tale of woe last night is a tale of elections past, not the one in front of us 3) Reform are transformed - the Nigel has doubled their support and the Tory dam is breaking. That Jenkyns leaflet won't be the only one. Once the dam breaks properly the surge of Tory votes to Reform is unstoppable now - watch the flow accelerate the closer we get to polling day 4) Sorry Tories, its the end. Nobody is listening to you, and the bits they hear they laugh at - openly, to your face.
Unless something radical happens to abruptly reverse it, this is going to be the biggest electoral shift for a century. The Tories have launched the manifesto now, its not going to pull a Farage-shooting rabbit out of the hat. And "don't give Labour a super-majority?" Not remotely enough when voters are now heading off to spread their votes about away from Labour.
I know that ELE is "it couldn't happen here". But it IS. Look. Listen. Think. What possibly can avert it now? Fear of that anodyne Labour offer? Fear of Farage? A sudden "poor Rishi lets vote for him after all" movement?
I have no clue what that means for seats. It's going to be fun.
I mean this in the nicest possible way:
You must be shitting yourself you might actually win
Rochdale would make an above average MP, I think ?
(Admittedly that’s not the highest of bars.)
Oh I hope he does. Actually as (part of being) a kid I didn't live very far away from his seat - village/town called Cullen.
But I doubt Mrs Rochdale thought he would win when she gave him permission to run. I'm just making that sentence up though based on what most marriages are like. Who knows. It's a bit unfair cause he surely cannot be expected to answer anyway. So I'll leave it there
Cullen is IN the seat. Hustings there next Thursday! We've been promised an appearance by the Ross.
Maybe we've been looking in the wrong party for the Portillo moment of this election. It could be someone who would have had a place in Starmer's cabinet losing their seat unexpectedly to Reform.
Someone like Lisa Nandy could be vulnerable.
Can tell you aren't a Wiganer.
Her majority was slashed by 10k votes by BoJo and the Tory + Brexit Party vote last time was neck-and-neck with Labour.
Three points. First. The Tory +Reform polling is nowhere near the Tory score at the last election. Whereas the Labour polling is up substantially. Second. Lisa Nandy is extremely popular locally. Even with her opponents. Thirdly. Wigan is gentrifying at a rapid pace. It has seen some of the highest rises in rental prices in the country. It's commutable to Liverpool and Manchester and on the WCML to London, Birmingham and Glasgow. It isn't the deprived ex-pit town of my youth. I'd look elsewhere for potential Red Wall Reform gains. Ironically, Makerfield is a much better bet. That's the down at heel collection of small pit towns scattered to the south of Wigan. Which doesn't have a potential senior Cabinet Minister standing. Nor indeed an incumbent at all. Not that I reckon they'll win there either.
Yep, you do know Wigan, and I agree re places like Makerfield. But Reform won’t win there either. It’s the old to whom they appeal.
What's your connection to Wigan @Monksfield? PM me if you like. Or feel free to ignore me.
It's a strange election. Without MRPs it's hard to say how votes will turn into seats with such huge swings - any 'uniform' assumption will be very wrong. The exit poll will be fascinating:
1) The Tories could hold on. 100+ seats and still in second. 2) The Lib dem gains of 50+ in the south overtake the Tories. They become the official Opposition. With Reform on their right the Tories could be no more. 3) Reform push their ceiling up to closer to 25%, but with the Tories obliterated they pick up a wave of seats in more working class Tory areas, edging ahead of Labour in certain regions. They edge past the Lib Dems to become the official Opposition. In this case the Tories are in an even worse situation they in the 2nd scenario.
There may be no doubt as to who will lead the next government, but the difference between these three outcomes is huge on the future of politics.
That supports my daughter's comment earlier about Embarrassing Dad Ed's antics cutting through in a positive way amongst her age group. I don't think any of them knew who he was before.
DATA TABLES for tonights YG shows before reallocation of DKs are out
Lab 29 Ref 15 Con 11 LD 10 DKs 15
This has the potential to result in anything
People not qualified to comment if they dont understand Data Tables!!
And you do? Judging by the bilge you posted y’day you clearly don’t.
But I’m not surprised you want to shut down discussion of your theory if you don’t believe in democracy.
Sorry pal but you are too thick to engage with if you think people surveyed are seats
You can PM me if you need advice in how to read data tables!
I’m not your “pal”, and I guess most peeps would not call me thick.
Yesterday you posted numbers and seats. Don’t try and deny it.
I don’t feel the need to insult you back but I do note that you seem to be doing that to just about everybody on this forum. I wish you well with your 13/8 bet ref. 2017 which looks a decent one.
No I didn't go find me a post where i mentioned seats and i will pay £20 to a charity of your choice
Of course when you realise i didn't and you completely misinterpreted it i will let you donate the same some to my charity.
And as per my bet I got 8/1 two weeks ago not 13/8
Just to support you here, you didn’t post seats.
You posted numbers that could look a bit like seats if you squinted. But you didn’t post seats.
Thank you for the post. Its so annoying.
About half a dozen PBers tried to explain to Heathener what my post meant of which you, TSE , DyedWoolie were prominent but to no avail
24 HRS LATER Heathener still doesn't understand and is convinced his/her muddled thinking is correct.
Oh well in a just PB land either I am £20 richer for my charity or Heathener apologises for going on and on when in the wrong
Tories are sub 20 with 4 pollsters. Its over. They will disintegrate over the next 3 weeks. I cant see them being the opposition.
Yes. Lets pull this movement apart: 1) Labour are shedding the soft vote that had herded into their column. Losing a few to Green, more to LibDem, some to Reform. That will reduce the number of seats they win and the majorities they get in those seats 2) LibDems are getting a lot of attention and people like what they see. Not relevant nationally, but the target seats focus and the willingness to vote tactically will pay out. I know the party is playing it down citing past elections, but Sarah Olney's tale of woe last night is a tale of elections past, not the one in front of us 3) Reform are transformed - the Nigel has doubled their support and the Tory dam is breaking. That Jenkyns leaflet won't be the only one. Once the dam breaks properly the surge of Tory votes to Reform is unstoppable now - watch the flow accelerate the closer we get to polling day 4) Sorry Tories, its the end. Nobody is listening to you, and the bits they hear they laugh at - openly, to your face.
Unless something radical happens to abruptly reverse it, this is going to be the biggest electoral shift for a century. The Tories have launched the manifesto now, its not going to pull a Farage-shooting rabbit out of the hat. And "don't give Labour a super-majority?" Not remotely enough when voters are now heading off to spread their votes about away from Labour.
I know that ELE is "it couldn't happen here". But it IS. Look. Listen. Think. What possibly can avert it now? Fear of that anodyne Labour offer? Fear of Farage? A sudden "poor Rishi lets vote for him after all" movement?
I have no clue what that means for seats. It's going to be fun.
And the thing is, even if Labour had got to a majority of 1 from their starting point, that would already have been an implausibly huge shift. Now we're in a situation where even a sensible, nothing to worry about for 4-5 years majority (40 or so?) would feel like a... not quite a failure, but a let down from here.
If 1997 was the meterorite that killed the dinosaurs, this has the potential to be like the one that broke off a part of planet Earth to become the Moon.
Meanwhile, the latest Rosindellgram came through my letterbox today. Some very high-pitched "don't vote Reform, that will let Labour in and that will make Khan happy" stuff.
Looking forward to receiving mine. The Tories have been unusually quiet so far. No foot soldiers apart from their councillors, perhaps?
I never get anything here. One of the safest seats, so Vicky Foxcroft needn’t bother. Our previous MP Joan Ruddock was very active but Vicky is pretty invisible.
I think I’ve had 2 door knockers in my 25 years in Brockley. Both Greens, one of them Darren Johnson who was a councillor for a while (recently kicked out of the party).
I’ve done lots of leafleting around here but no canvassing.
Back from a 5 mile cycle around various strata of Ashfield in estates around the main urban area.
101: ask the dog walkers, they always know where everything is - including the placards which are "hidden in the bushes, like the road signs". In the darkening evening at cycle speeds I may have missed some smaller ones, and some in windows - especially on a small wheel e-folder watching the road surface carefully.
In total I saw about 7-8 Ashfield Independent signs, and 1 Labour. No Tories - they are pretty much screwed, and they know it.
1940s-50s Council houses - nothing. Is there a "no placards" condition in the rental agreements? Will be mainly genuine working class I think, manual and trades, and mums and other priviliged-by-the-points groups, and the same retired or still there after having done RIght-to-Buy.
1990s housing a bit of AI. These will middle aged and decent pensions, or commuters living here for the house prices and nice environment. Some AI.
2000s and more recent housing. These will be mainly younger relatively newer on the housing ladder, and some Eastern Europeans. Lots of Audi, BMW and Mercedes wankers on 7-10 year old plates, with some Tonka Plonkers with older Range Rovers etc. Obviously parked all over the pavements. Again a bit of AI.
The one Labour was in my own lane, which is relatively mixed and mainly more upmarket, with properties from 150k to say 600k.
I haven't gone to 60s and 70s housing, of which we have swathes, and terraced areas of which have fair amounts.
DATA TABLES for tonights YG shows before reallocation of DKs are out
Lab 29 Ref 15 Con 11 LD 10 DKs 15
This has the potential to result in anything
People not qualified to comment if they dont understand Data Tables!!
And you do? Judging by the bilge you posted y’day you clearly don’t.
But I’m not surprised you want to shut down discussion of your theory if you don’t believe in democracy.
Sorry pal but you are too thick to engage with if you think people surveyed are seats
You can PM me if you need advice in how to read data tables!
I’m not your “pal”, and I guess most peeps would not call me thick.
Yesterday you posted numbers and seats. Don’t try and deny it.
I don’t feel the need to insult you back but I do note that you seem to be doing that to just about everybody on this forum. I wish you well with your 13/8 bet ref. 2017 which looks a decent one.
No I didn't go find me a post where i mentioned seats and i will pay £20 to a charity of your choice
Of course when you realise i didn't and you completely misinterpreted it i will let you donate the same some to my charity.
And as per my bet I got 8/1 two weeks ago not 13/8
Just to support you here, you didn’t post seats.
You posted numbers that could look a bit like seats if you squinted. But you didn’t post seats.
Thank you for the post. Its so annoying.
About half a dozen PBers tried to explain to Heathener what my post meant of which you, TSE , DyedWoolie were prominent but to no avail
24 HRS LATER Heathener still doesn't understand and is convinced his/her muddled thinking is correct.
Oh well in a just PB land either I am £20 richer for my charity or Heathener apologises for going on and on when in the wrong
We may not live in a just PB land though.
I do think you make an interesting point too. It may mean less nowhere but we SHOULD as questions about assumptions on reallocation of DKs when the other data shows big moves.
I can't say that I am enjoying this election. The Tories are not really my team but jeez.
Labour are getting away with promising something at the margins. And not being Tories. That is enough, apparently. Sunak has been a poor PM, no argument, but I don't think he deserves this. I will be glad when its over.
Aren't they? I had you down as a dyed in the wool Conservative. Have I got you totally wrong?
No particular reason for you to read my posts but I have been very critical of the Tories for a long time. The rank dishonesty of Boris, the utter incompetence of Truss and the ineptitude of Sunak. I was disgusted with the HS2 decision, the abandonment of levelling up, the dishonesty of giving tax cuts whilst actually increasing taxes, the lack of focus on growth, the cowardice of just throwing our money at every problem that came along. And, of course, the moral turpitude and performative cruelty of the Rwanda policy. It's been terrible but I still can't believe more than 15% of my fellow citizens are going to vote for Reform.
To add to the problems, the level of regulation that the conservative party have bought in. They started out in 2010 as pro deregulation but over the past few years they have bought in lots of new regulation, most of it massively frustrating.
Yes, its been like governing is too hard work, especially when you can make a song and dance about gender or something equally irrelevant. HTH does the business secretary think that is a more important part of her job than, you know, identifying the needs of business and encouraging investment in the UK?
The civil service has been allowed to run riot with almost no guidance or direction, responding to every pressure group in the country rather than using the opportunity we had to simplify and clarify the mess we had made of EU law.
Tories are sub 20 with 4 pollsters. Its over. They will disintegrate over the next 3 weeks. I cant see them being the opposition.
Yes. Lets pull this movement apart: 1) Labour are shedding the soft vote that had herded into their column. Losing a few to Green, more to LibDem, some to Reform. That will reduce the number of seats they win and the majorities they get in those seats 2) LibDems are getting a lot of attention and people like what they see. Not relevant nationally, but the target seats focus and the willingness to vote tactically will pay out. I know the party is playing it down citing past elections, but Sarah Olney's tale of woe last night is a tale of elections past, not the one in front of us 3) Reform are transformed - the Nigel has doubled their support and the Tory dam is breaking. That Jenkyns leaflet won't be the only one. Once the dam breaks properly the surge of Tory votes to Reform is unstoppable now - watch the flow accelerate the closer we get to polling day 4) Sorry Tories, its the end. Nobody is listening to you, and the bits they hear they laugh at - openly, to your face.
Unless something radical happens to abruptly reverse it, this is going to be the biggest electoral shift for a century. The Tories have launched the manifesto now, its not going to pull a Farage-shooting rabbit out of the hat. And "don't give Labour a super-majority?" Not remotely enough when voters are now heading off to spread their votes about away from Labour.
I know that ELE is "it couldn't happen here". But it IS. Look. Listen. Think. What possibly can avert it now? Fear of that anodyne Labour offer? Fear of Farage? A sudden "poor Rishi lets vote for him after all" movement?
I have no clue what that means for seats. It's going to be fun.
I mean this in the nicest possible way:
You must be shitting yourself you might actually win
Rochdale would make an above average MP, I think ?
(Admittedly that’s not the highest of bars.)
Oh I hope he does. Actually as (part of being) a kid I didn't live very far away from his seat - village/town called Cullen.
But I doubt Mrs Rochdale thought he would win when she gave him permission to run. I'm just making that sentence up though based on what most marriages are like. Who knows. It's a bit unfair cause he surely cannot be expected to answer anyway. So I'll leave it there
Cullen is IN the seat. Hustings there next Thursday! We've been promised an appearance by the Ross.
Do you ever get confused, whether you're in North Aberdeenshire OR East Moray? Or is it East Aberdeenshire and North Moray? AND how do you tell for sure?
Comments
First. The Tory +Reform polling is nowhere near the Tory score at the last election. Whereas the Labour polling is up substantially.
Second. Lisa Nandy is extremely popular locally. Even with her opponents.
Thirdly. Wigan is gentrifying at a rapid pace. It has seen some of the highest rises in rental prices in the country. It's commutable to Liverpool and Manchester and on the WCML to London, Birmingham and Glasgow.
It isn't the deprived ex-pit town of my youth.
I'd look elsewhere for potential Red Wall Reform gains.
Ironically, Makerfield is a much better bet. That's the down at heel collection of small pit towns scattered to the south of Wigan. Which doesn't have a potential senior Cabinet Minister standing. Nor indeed an incumbent at all. Not that I reckon they'll win there either.
Yesterday you posted numbers and seats. Don’t try and deny it.
I don’t feel the need to insult you back but I do note that you seem to be doing that to just about everybody on this forum. I wish you well with your 13/8 bet ref. 2017 which looks a decent one. Most everything else you post though is too off-beam to take my, or many other people’s, time.
The key is to treat it as a temporary prop while building permanent capacity of both people and buildings, otherwise elective surgery will go the same way as NHS dentistry.
I've been saying for a while I've been intending to sell the libs on the spreads once the bid is higher. I'm starting to consider buying them!
(And why it sucks.)
So what is S-500? S-500 is a long-range air and missile defense system operated by the VKS (Russian Aerospace Forces).
It is a direct derivative of S-300V, the principal long-range maneuver SAM operated by the SV (Russian Ground Forces)...
https://x.com/John_A_Ridge/status/1801322095185375647
EDJACULATION
is right there begging to be unleashed?You must be shitting yourself you might actually win
Perfect for ITV viewers
More out of his depth than Donald Trump at a Nevada rally.
Of course when you realise i didn't and you completely misinterpreted it i will let you donate the same some to my charity.
And as per my bet I got 8/1 two weeks ago not 13/8
(Admittedly that’s not the highest of bars.)
Also learned a tidbit - that apparently Punjabis are especially hairy. No such heritage in family Dumbosaurus, but it was nice trivia.
For those that haven’t seen it… https://x.com/christiancalgie/status/1801268147749638260?s=61
Stop trying to make edjaculation a thing.
Unless it’s 2010, with the Farage-gasm eventually collapsing back to the Tories.
The point above that everyone has to be a bit more skeptical about DK when so many trends are in flux is well made.
Who knows. Exit poll could be fun.
This is where the ground war and the posters become significant. Genuine question -do Reform actually have bodies on the ground?. Has anyone been canvassed by Reform or seen a poster?
But I doubt Mrs Rochdale thought he would win when she gave him permission to run. I'm just making that sentence up though based on what most marriages are like. Who knows. It's a bit unfair cause he surely cannot be expected to answer anyway. So I'll leave it there
You posted numbers that could look a bit like seats if you squinted. But you didn’t post seats.
That'll do it surely.
Issue an addendum to their manifesto.
A grim harbinger, I say.
LAB: 41%
LD: 22%
REF: 15%
GRN: 8%
CON: 7%
Catastrophic decision what was he thinking
And that's about the worst possible combination.
@jackfifield
Fuller's sign is gone by October 2022 so this predates that month at least. Elbow bump would suggest during COVID restrictions to me. Last street view image with similar plants as video was September 2020, replaced with different plants by March 2021.
England win in just 3.1 overs !!!
I'm sure this has been mentioned but YouGov is NOT an opinion poll - it's a voting projection based on its MRP model. Also worth mentioning the DKs are at 15% which is a bit higher than some other recent polls.
Techne is a 7-10 likelihood of voting at 68%.
Techne has DKs at 10% which is more in line with other pollsters. The actual moves are within margin of error and the Labour lead is unchanged at 23.
Is there something happening? I'm not sure and YouGov isn't convincing me. The other pollsters seem to be herding.
May 2021.
With that said, I think it's clearly different in a multi-party world, and I think it's about vote efficiency. If you a right wing voter, and you are fairly agnostic about where to cast your vote (so long as it is right of center), then clearly the rise of Reform encourages you to choose them over the Conservatives.
leakeddiscovered.Thrust of his argument remains true. Couldn’t find their arsehole (even after changing leader a couple of times).
We've beaten Oman - that would be the equivalent in football of us beating Iceland.
Er...
(Doesn't Sunak actually just use Downing St as an office and live elsewhere?)
A party whip would hate me.
“The sun on the meadow is summery warm,
The stag in the forest runs free,
But gather together to greet the storm,
Tomorrow belongs to me”….
To which we took one look at stepped back in horror and said "f**k right off then".
That's the problem, the Tories already shot their load at the start of the campaign, and it was a terrible, terrible load too.
There is a twisted side of me that hopes for a Labour government for the rest of Farage’s life which takes the UK back into the EU, adopts the Euro, institutes compulsory Critical Race Theory lessons for all schoolchildren and introduces the daily national pledge to the NHS, like the kids in the US to their flag.
And as he lies on his death bed, the Rev Rishi Sunak, recently returned from his seminary in California, whispers in his ear, well we will never know what.
Julie Etchingham not good
PM me if you like. Or feel free to ignore me.
1) The Tories could hold on. 100+ seats and still in second.
2) The Lib dem gains of 50+ in the south overtake the Tories. They become the official Opposition. With Reform on their right the Tories could be no more.
3) Reform push their ceiling up to closer to 25%, but with the Tories obliterated they pick up a wave of seats in more working class Tory areas, edging ahead of Labour in certain regions. They edge past the Lib Dems to become the official Opposition. In this case the Tories are in an even worse situation they in the 2nd scenario.
There may be no doubt as to who will lead the next government, but the difference between these three outcomes is huge on the future of politics.
About half a dozen PBers tried to explain to Heathener what my post meant of which you, TSE , DyedWoolie were prominent but to no avail
24 HRS LATER Heathener still doesn't understand and is convinced his/her muddled thinking is correct.
Oh well in a just PB land either I am £20 richer for my charity or Heathener apologises for going on and on when in the wrong
We may not live in a just PB land though.
I think I’ve had 2 door knockers in my 25 years in Brockley. Both Greens, one of them Darren Johnson who was a councillor for a while (recently kicked out of the party).
I’ve done lots of leafleting around here but no canvassing.
101: ask the dog walkers, they always know where everything is - including the placards which are "hidden in the bushes, like the road signs". In the darkening evening at cycle speeds I may have missed some smaller ones, and some in windows - especially on a small wheel e-folder watching the road surface carefully.
In total I saw about 7-8 Ashfield Independent signs, and 1 Labour. No Tories - they are pretty much screwed, and they know it.
1940s-50s Council houses - nothing. Is there a "no placards" condition in the rental agreements? Will be mainly genuine working class I think, manual and trades, and mums and other priviliged-by-the-points groups, and the same retired or still there after having done RIght-to-Buy.
1990s housing a bit of AI. These will middle aged and decent pensions, or commuters living here for the house prices and nice environment. Some AI.
2000s and more recent housing. These will be mainly younger relatively newer on the housing ladder, and some Eastern Europeans. Lots of Audi, BMW and Mercedes wankers on 7-10 year old plates, with some Tonka Plonkers with older Range Rovers etc. Obviously parked all over the pavements. Again a bit of AI.
The one Labour was in my own lane, which is relatively mixed and mainly more upmarket, with properties from 150k to say 600k.
I haven't gone to 60s and 70s housing, of which we have swathes, and terraced areas of which have fair amounts.
If England beat Namibia, Scotland will need something against Australia.
(I realise you can win and your overall tournament NRR can still fall but in practice the above will hold).
Are racism and dirty Russian money nothing? I think not.
Mordaunt doing better than I expected. No mention of £2000 tax rise again.
The civil service has been allowed to run riot with almost no guidance or direction, responding to every pressure group in the country rather than using the opportunity we had to simplify and clarify the mess we had made of EU law.
Lead on MacDuff!