It takes account of recent polling changes and is also now based on the final candidates list. It shows Lab 403, Con 172, LD34, SNP 18 (a Lab majority of 158).
Cons a big buy, if you're right.
That's a pretty similar forecast to my own.
With the caveat that it's entirely possible that things go entirely tits up for the Conservative party in the next three weeks.
There aren’t any Brexiteers left. And I speak as a Brexiteer who would vote Brexit again tomorrow
i also tell the truth as I see it. Brexit is perceived as a failure and most people regret it and they would vote Remain now, polls even show they don’t care about Free Movement (and you can see why, when post Brexit immigration triples rather than falls)
Labour are shit scared of Brexit as a subject because of the Red Wall and because Starmer has bad previous as a 2nd voter. The Lib Dems have always been pro EU and wanted to REVOKE at the 2019 election (insane and evil but that was their policy)
This is a howling great opportunity for the LDs. The electorate is volatile, they regret Brexit, they want to reverse it, this won’t last, the Lib Dems could surge to 20%+ if they came out full throttle NOW as the join the SM and and vote on Rejoin party, which, if given some power, could then influence Labour to do this
It’s mad they can’t see this
Why
To own the libs, clearly…
There were many reasons to vote leave, and many to vote remain. I think an awful lot of people wanted the economic integration of the single market without the bullshit politics (ok, I’m mainly talking about me, but I don’t think I’m alone). In the end I judged that the market was worth the other, and voted remain, and lost. I think before Brexit a lot of rubbish was spoken and written blaming the EU and our membership for every I’ll. and after Brexit the reverse has happened - everything that’s wrong is down to Brexit. Both positions were are are stupid, and wrong. But it’s not dishonest to want to trade freely with our friends and allies across the channel without the need for a European Parliament, that in my eyes, doesn't seem to actually run the EU.
Do you honestly think it's been worth it?
The problem is, the alternative wasn't the status quo - it would have been interpreted as a full throated mandate for further integration and greater loss of sovereignty, probably the Euro without a referendum etc.
There are plenty of people like Turbo above, who 'wanted the integration of the single market without the bullshit politics' but that was never an option.
It is also getting harder to argue that the EU is a great club to be in as it lurches to the hard right and as the economic motor - Germany - stumbles towards economic Depression and serious discontent
For a while, I thought Brexit had saved the UK from a lurch to the hard right. Now, I think we've probably only delayed it. Our politicians are making similar mistakes, e.g. on immigration. Hence the return of the Faragistas.
I overheard two women on the tube yesterday talking about politics. One had a 'palestine' bag but they didn't seem like activists. They looked like they may have gone to SOAS ten years ago. Anyway they concluded that they prefer Sunak to Starmer.
I'm not detecting any enthusiasm for Starmer.
It's entirely driven by a desire to eject the existing administration.
If Starmer confuses that for a real mandate to do whatever he likes once he's in office he's going to very quickly run into real trouble.
I overheard two women on the tube yesterday talking about politics. One had a 'palestine' bag but they didn't seem like activists. They looked like they may have gone to SOAS ten years ago. Anyway they concluded that they prefer Sunak to Starmer.
I'm not detecting any enthusiasm for Starmer.
It's entirely driven by a desire to eject the existing administration.
If Starmer confuses that for a real mandate to do whatever he likes once he's in office he's going to very quickly run into real trouble.
The mandate will be having a majority in the House of Commons.
That is a MASSIVE drop in Labour VI. I said a couple of days ago they will be nervous at the slide and was decried on here, they will be more than nervous now
No. They won’t. I decried you then and I decry you now. This is a PP reversion to the mean from the stupid LAB VI they had before.
Of course, dear. You’re not nervous at all
What kind of numbers do you think Labour could drift out too, and (presumably) the Tories gain, to bring the majority into question?
I'm sure if we Baxter them it will still bring a sizeable Labour majority
Playing around on Baxter I get Labour falling short of a majority on poll shares (and seats) of:
We're some distance from that, but the interesting thing about that scenario is that it doesn't require any particular Tory recovery. They only have to get around what their best current poll scores give them (25% with Savanta and More in Common). It then only requires Labour to fail to squeeze the Greens, and to lose a few more soft voters to LDM/RFM/GRN on the basis that they're inevitably going to win by a huge margin, and then to have been somewhat overdone in the polls by a bit.
It's a much more plausible route to a Hung Parliament than a Tory recovery to >30%.
Yes, for me the worst scenario for Labour would be a 2005 style lack of enthusiasm depressing their vote, but with the other parties doing just a bit better and denying them a majority.
I mentioned earlier today that this talk of a ’SuperMajority' is the first smart thing the Conservatives have done all campaign.
It’s very dangerous for Labour.
The supermajority fear was one I have been toying with for a while. I would prefer Starmer to win but don't want Labour to have a massive majority. The blair experience is quite instructive.
In part I think this accounts for the modest drop in Lab polling (though Con is dropping as quickly) and also folk like me not feeling the need or desire to back Labour, and can look at LD or Green. Depending on geography and if looking at their own seats could be a further wound to the Tories.
That is a MASSIVE drop in Labour VI. I said a couple of days ago they will be nervous at the slide and was decried on here, they will be more than nervous now
No. They won’t. I decried you then and I decry you now. This is a PP reversion to the mean from the stupid LAB VI they had before.
Of course, dear. You’re not nervous at all
What kind of numbers do you think Labour could drift out too, and (presumably) the Tories gain, to bring the majority into question?
I'm sure if we Baxter them it will still bring a sizeable Labour majority
I honestly have no idea, does anyone? Reform could continue their rise - or fall back. Labour could continue to slide, or surge again
it’s a long campaign and neither of the big parties has much enthusiasm behind them, but the Tories are viscerally hated and Labour are merely tolerated as an alternative - for now
If I was in the Lib Dems I would be shouting loudly about Single Market membership immediately to peel off Labour Remainers, and then also a promise of referendum on Rejoin in a few years. That would be cat in the pigeons territory and could upend everything
I’ve no idea why they aren’t slotting this open goal
I will shit my boxers with pleasure if Labour slip into the 30s on the night.
Probably the one pleasure I will get. It will set off all sorts of internal recriminations and legitimacy questions, which will dog SKS for his whole time in office.
I will be very happy and have made a very large profit on my 8/1 on SKS failing to beat Jezzas 12.9m votes from 2017
That bet is still available with Sky Bet but its now only 13/8 but based on the last 5 polls should be odds on DYOR
That is a MASSIVE drop in Labour VI. I said a couple of days ago they will be nervous at the slide and was decried on here, they will be more than nervous now
No. They won’t. I decried you then and I decry you now. This is a PP reversion to the mean from the stupid LAB VI they had before.
Of course, dear. You’re not nervous at all
No, I’m not. Because I’m not a Labour supporter. I’m a former Lib Dem member who was roundly decried on here for quitting in a huff. Get off the board, the internet, in fact the fucking planet. Read what other people are saying rather than spending all day in a self congratulatory cock polishing session.
Er, I’ve been working hard all morning making flints and then spent the afternoon walking around the moody old Jewish quarters of Odessa, famed from Isaac Babel’s wonderful short stories
Now I sit here waiting for the first of Putin’s Persian drones and Iskander missiles; he always attacks at night, It’s like the African Savannah, the predators roam nocturnally, and we are the prey, the zebras and gazelles, eyes bright and wide and fearful, in the moonlight of the wilds
I can't help viewing this exchange in the light of the few minutes of debate that I just watched. Doug, the angry audience member. You with your impalpable waffle, impervious to the fact that three quarters of the people reading your words think you're swine.
You are Rishi Sunak.
No, I’m a professional artist and writer who is being paid to be in Odessa, magical Odessa, during a war! - and you are a fuck up stuck in a bedsit in drizzly Aberdeen, and that sends you - and several other PB-ers - absolutely insane with badly disguised jealousy. Which I gleefully stoke
Hey, I didn't say I was in the three quarters, Rishi. I'm actually a huge fan. I do wish you'd tone it down with romanticising war, though. I know after a few glasses you like lurching to rag-time tunes but it makes you seem like a bit of a ghoul.
Personal question. Do you have aspirations to be a writer? I sense that maybe you do
I rather liked your limerick earlier on, it’s hard to nail a limerick, and you did
There was a young man called Farage Who one day got locked in his garage He campaigned so hard But let down his guard And fell to an electoral barrage.
That’s….. quite bad. Needs work on the scansion. Sorry Sunil!
Did Farage once say his surname rhymes with garage, or is that an urban myth?
I hope it's true because where I come from we'd all have to start calling him Nigel Farridge, which suits him better I think.
There aren’t any Brexiteers left. And I speak as a Brexiteer who would vote Brexit again tomorrow
i also tell the truth as I see it. Brexit is perceived as a failure and most people regret it and they would vote Remain now, polls even show they don’t care about Free Movement (and you can see why, when post Brexit immigration triples rather than falls)
Labour are shit scared of Brexit as a subject because of the Red Wall and because Starmer has bad previous as a 2nd voter. The Lib Dems have always been pro EU and wanted to REVOKE at the 2019 election (insane and evil but that was their policy)
This is a howling great opportunity for the LDs. The electorate is volatile, they regret Brexit, they want to reverse it, this won’t last, the Lib Dems could surge to 20%+ if they came out full throttle NOW as the join the SM and and vote on Rejoin party, which, if given some power, could then influence Labour to do this
It’s mad they can’t see this
Why
To own the libs, clearly…
There were many reasons to vote leave, and many to vote remain. I think an awful lot of people wanted the economic integration of the single market without the bullshit politics (ok, I’m mainly talking about me, but I don’t think I’m alone). In the end I judged that the market was worth the other, and voted remain, and lost. I think before Brexit a lot of rubbish was spoken and written blaming the EU and our membership for every I’ll. and after Brexit the reverse has happened - everything that’s wrong is down to Brexit. Both positions were are are stupid, and wrong. But it’s not dishonest to want to trade freely with our friends and allies across the channel without the need for a European Parliament, that in my eyes, doesn't seem to actually run the EU.
Do you honestly think it's been worth it?
The problem is, the alternative wasn't the status quo - it would have been interpreted as a full throated mandate for further integration and greater loss of sovereignty, probably the Euro without a referendum etc.
There are plenty of people like Turbo above, who 'wanted the integration of the single market without the bullshit politics' but that was never an option.
It is also getting harder to argue that the EU is a great club to be in as it lurches to the hard right and as the economic motor - Germany - stumbles towards economic Depression and serious discontent
For a while, I thought Brexit had saved the UK from a lurch to the hard right. Now, I think we've probably only delayed it. Our politicians are making similar mistakes, e.g. on immigration. Hence the return of the Faragistas.
Look at the economics slides put up by Sky in the post-debate coverage. a 20% inflationary spike since Covid. On top of decades of decay in so many places.
The rise of the hard right is what happens when economies fail voters. Reform are going to score more votes than UKIP did in 2015, and win seats. More importantly they are displacing the Tories as the populist right party.
It takes account of recent polling changes and is also now based on the final candidates list. It shows Lab 403, Con 172, LD34, SNP 18 (a Lab majority of 158).
Cons a big buy, if you're right.
That's a pretty similar forecast to my own.
With the caveat that it's entirely possible that things go entirely tits up for the Conservative party in the next three weeks.
I think it's now down to brand loyalty, how much death there is left in a party, and every man for himself.
But if that’s representative, then it’s all Sunak needs….
He only needs to lose a debate by a 2-1 margin?
He only needs to get a decent chunk of 36% of voters to think he’s worth their vote….
The rest don’t matter to him.
His only strategy now is to eat into Reform and hope Labour dips a bit more.
Eh? Just because 64% said Starmer won doesn’t mean 64% will vote for him!
No. Ignore the 64%. That’s a red herring. I didn’t watch but I am sure Sunak was appalling because he always is. 36% still say he won. That’s his voter pool. That’s his max - so blind to his shit-ness or full of hate for Labour that they think he won.
And the Tories are no longer, I assume, playing to win. They are playing to minimise the loss.
Not quite - that 36% also includes all the people who hate Starmer (mainly.on the left), and merely said Sunak won because he wasn't Starmer. Sunak's voter pool is probably about 25%.
I overheard two women on the tube yesterday talking about politics. One had a 'palestine' bag but they didn't seem like activists. They looked like they may have gone to SOAS ten years ago. Anyway they concluded that they prefer Sunak to Starmer.
I'm not detecting any enthusiasm for Starmer.
It's entirely driven by a desire to eject the existing administration.
If Starmer confuses that for a real mandate to do whatever he likes once he's in office he's going to very quickly run into real trouble.
That is a given. We're in a hell of a mess (much is structural rather than explicitly the fault of the Tories alone) so of course the new government will disappoint. But not as quickly as you think, because they will throw the Tories under the bus and run it over a few times. Just as Osborne did to Labour through the coalition years.
But that is after. This is about before. There may not be enthusiasm for Starmer. Or Labour. But there is massive enthusiasm for not Tory. And increasingly for smashing the Tories. And not just from the centre or left - from the right.
John McDonnell @johnmcdonnellMP · 1h I’ve consistently campaigned for scrapping of the 2 child limit but we heard tonight it will not be in manifesto. I know this is the very last minute for an appeal for an amendment to the Labour Manifesto but before it is published tomorrow I am appealing for this to be included.
I've got to say that it's not a benefit issue that comes up much in my experience. The bedroom tax is worse but much worse still is the evil and inept approach taken to make people jump through hoops to review their disability benefits every few years, including people with conditions that only a biblical miracle would improve.
All of the above. But the fact remains removing the two child cap is, by far, the most efficient and cost effective way to take children out of poverty. To the extent that if you choose not to do so, you are making the choice for child poverty. Yes it's a question of budget priorities, but what would you be prioritising above this?
The poor people having to many kids are the ones responsible for child poverty.
If you can't afford to bring them up, don't have them.
That is a MASSIVE drop in Labour VI. I said a couple of days ago they will be nervous at the slide and was decried on here, they will be more than nervous now
No. They won’t. I decried you then and I decry you now. This is a PP reversion to the mean from the stupid LAB VI they had before.
Of course, dear. You’re not nervous at all
What kind of numbers do you think Labour could drift out too, and (presumably) the Tories gain, to bring the majority into question?
I'm sure if we Baxter them it will still bring a sizeable Labour majority
Playing around on Baxter I get Labour falling short of a majority on poll shares (and seats) of:
We're some distance from that, but the interesting thing about that scenario is that it doesn't require any particular Tory recovery. They only have to get around what their best current poll scores give them (25% with Savanta and More in Common). It then only requires Labour to fail to squeeze the Greens, and to lose a few more soft voters to LDM/RFM/GRN on the basis that they're inevitably going to win by a huge margin, and then to have been somewhat overdone in the polls by a bit.
It's a much more plausible route to a Hung Parliament than a Tory recovery to >30%.
Yes, for me the worst scenario for Labour would be a 2005 style lack of enthusiasm depressing their vote, but with the other parties doing just a bit better and denying them a majority.
I mentioned earlier today that this talk of a ’SuperMajority' is the first smart thing the Conservatives have done all campaign.
It’s very dangerous for Labour.
The supermajority fear was one I have been toying with for a while. I would prefer Starmer to win but don't want Labour to have a massive majority. The blair experience is quite instructive.
In part I think this accounts for the modest drop in Lab polling (though Con is dropping as quickly) and also folk like me not feeling the need or desire to back Labour, and can look at LD or Green. Depending on geography and if looking at their own seats could be a further wound to the Tories.
Also DKs making up their minds too.
I want to see a big Labour majority and I want to see the Tories ground into dust.
If asked in a poll I will honestly say, I am voting LibDem, because it will best achieve my aims given the seat I am in. So I won't count in the Lab %.
There aren’t any Brexiteers left. And I speak as a Brexiteer who would vote Brexit again tomorrow
i also tell the truth as I see it. Brexit is perceived as a failure and most people regret it and they would vote Remain now, polls even show they don’t care about Free Movement (and you can see why, when post Brexit immigration triples rather than falls)
Labour are shit scared of Brexit as a subject because of the Red Wall and because Starmer has bad previous as a 2nd voter. The Lib Dems have always been pro EU and wanted to REVOKE at the 2019 election (insane and evil but that was their policy)
This is a howling great opportunity for the LDs. The electorate is volatile, they regret Brexit, they want to reverse it, this won’t last, the Lib Dems could surge to 20%+ if they came out full throttle NOW as the join the SM and and vote on Rejoin party, which, if given some power, could then influence Labour to do this
It’s mad they can’t see this
Why
To own the libs, clearly…
There were many reasons to vote leave, and many to vote remain. I think an awful lot of people wanted the economic integration of the single market without the bullshit politics (ok, I’m mainly talking about me, but I don’t think I’m alone). In the end I judged that the market was worth the other, and voted remain, and lost. I think before Brexit a lot of rubbish was spoken and written blaming the EU and our membership for every I’ll. and after Brexit the reverse has happened - everything that’s wrong is down to Brexit. Both positions were are are stupid, and wrong. But it’s not dishonest to want to trade freely with our friends and allies across the channel without the need for a European Parliament, that in my eyes, doesn't seem to actually run the EU.
Do you honestly think it's been worth it?
The problem is, the alternative wasn't the status quo - it would have been interpreted as a full throated mandate for further integration and greater loss of sovereignty, probably the Euro without a referendum etc.
There are plenty of people like Turbo above, who 'wanted the integration of the single market without the bullshit politics' but that was never an option.
It is also getting harder to argue that the EU is a great club to be in as it lurches to the hard right and as the economic motor - Germany - stumbles towards economic Depression and serious discontent
For a while, I thought Brexit had saved the UK from a lurch to the hard right. Now, I think we've probably only delayed it. Our politicians are making similar mistakes, e.g. on immigration. Hence the return of the Faragistas.
We are going to see a massive swing to the Left, not the Right or Hard Right.
I’ve decided. I really hope Reform kills off the Conservative Party at this election. The Conservatives have to die ( ex-councillor and constituency association chairman).
@Benpointer has a nice preview of your wish coming true:
1. Running down military capacity, at a time of rising international tension. 2. Gutting the criminal justice system. 3. Ending border controls.
Yes these are inexcusable.
The moment things went wrong was when Cummings left and got 'replaced' briefly by Carrie, things just got confused after that. After 2022 the basis on which they won was abandoned. The Conservatives were governing with no legitimacy. This situation now is a lesson about the risks of doing this.
Carrie was a turning point, and I concur with Sean F’s three points. The Tories need to die, now
I’d never thought of it this way before but without Covid, the Cummings/Johnson team would have lasted longer and would have had more chance to show results.
Cummings had an actual post-Brexit plan. Parts of it may have been mad, and maybe he was the wrong guy to deliver it, even from the back room, but it was a plan and it was coherent - deregulate, level up, restrict immigration to highly skilled, focus on technology and destroy the Woke blob that stops everything and slows everything else. But Boris is led by his dick and fell for Carrie and got distracted and then came Covid and the war. It’s a tragedy, really. Boris had the political rizz and Cummings had the brains - it might just have worked
instead the Tories lie in ruins and the rubble needs to be cleared away, so we can start again
I get quite a scary vibe from Carrie. I don't think Boris is going to leave her and the family. Not without incurring severe bodily harm.
lol yeah, likewise. Quite feminine but a wildcat if crossed. Vagina dentata
That is a MASSIVE drop in Labour VI. I said a couple of days ago they will be nervous at the slide and was decried on here, they will be more than nervous now
No. They won’t. I decried you then and I decry you now. This is a PP reversion to the mean from the stupid LAB VI they had before.
Of course, dear. You’re not nervous at all
No, I’m not. Because I’m not a Labour supporter. I’m a former Lib Dem member who was roundly decried on here for quitting in a huff. Get off the board, the internet, in fact the fucking planet. Read what other people are saying rather than spending all day in a self congratulatory cock polishing session.
Er, I’ve been working hard all morning making flints and then spent the afternoon walking around the moody old Jewish quarters of Odessa, famed from Isaac Babel’s wonderful short stories
Now I sit here waiting for the first of Putin’s Persian drones and Iskander missiles; he always attacks at night, It’s like the African Savannah, the predators roam nocturnally, and we are the prey, the zebras and gazelles, eyes bright and wide and fearful, in the moonlight of the wilds
I can't help viewing this exchange in the light of the few minutes of debate that I just watched. Doug, the angry audience member. You with your impalpable waffle, impervious to the fact that three quarters of the people reading your words think you're swine.
You are Rishi Sunak.
No, I’m a professional artist and writer who is being paid to be in Odessa, magical Odessa, during a war! - and you are a fuck up stuck in a bedsit in drizzly Aberdeen, and that sends you - and several other PB-ers - absolutely insane with badly disguised jealousy. Which I gleefully stoke
Hey, I didn't say I was in the three quarters, Rishi. I'm actually a huge fan. I do wish you'd tone it down with romanticising war, though. I know after a few glasses you like lurching to rag-time tunes but it makes you seem like a bit of a ghoul.
Personal question. Do you have aspirations to be a writer? I sense that maybe you do
I rather liked your limerick earlier on, it’s hard to nail a limerick, and you did
There was a young man called Farage Who one day got locked in his garage He campaigned so hard But let down his guard And fell to an electoral barrage.
That’s….. quite bad. Needs work on the scansion. Sorry Sunil!
Did Farage once say his surname rhymes with garage, or is that an urban myth?
I hope it's true because where I come from we'd all have to start calling him Nigel Farridge, which suits him better I think.
I’ve decided. I really hope Reform kills off the Conservative Party at this election. The Conservatives have to die ( ex-councillor and constituency association chairman).
@Benpointer has a nice preview of your wish coming true:
1. Running down military capacity, at a time of rising international tension. 2. Gutting the criminal justice system. 3. Ending border controls.
Yes these are inexcusable.
The moment things went wrong was when Cummings left and got 'replaced' briefly by Carrie, things just got confused after that. After 2022 the basis on which they won was abandoned. The Conservatives were governing with no legitimacy. This situation now is a lesson about the risks of doing this.
Carrie was a turning point, and I concur with Sean F’s three points. The Tories need to die, now
I’d never thought of it this way before but without Covid, the Cummings/Johnson team would have lasted longer and would have had more chance to show results.
Cummings had an actual post-Brexit plan. Parts of it may have been mad, and maybe he was the wrong guy to deliver it, even from the back room, but it was a plan and it was coherent - deregulate, level up, restrict immigration to highly skilled, focus on technology and destroy the Woke blob that stops everything and slows everything else. But Boris is led by his dick and fell for Carrie and got distracted and then came Covid and the war. It’s a tragedy, really. Boris had the political rizz and Cummings had the brains - it might just have worked
instead the Tories lie in ruins and the rubble needs to be cleared away, so we can start again
Cummings has never struck me as having a very coherent set of ideas underneath all his corporate/science babble. He's also peculiarly hostile to Ukraine, not simply a Russia appeaser. And Johnson was always likely to self destruct as PM because he has no self discipline. You might be able to get away with that as a flamboyant Mayor but not in the top job.
Government of Techno-Men: 100 Techno-Men select 10 of their number to appoint another 300 Techno-Men, who select 7 of their number, who appoint the House of Commons.
Make schools more like startups: 90% of kids fail.
Make lockdown compulsory except if you don't want to.
Compulsory driving tests for people who aren't sure if they are well enough to drive or can see.
I overheard two women on the tube yesterday talking about politics. One had a 'palestine' bag but they didn't seem like activists. They looked like they may have gone to SOAS ten years ago. Anyway they concluded that they prefer Sunak to Starmer.
About 20% of voters plan to vote Tory at the moment. Occasionally you are going to meet one. I haven't knowingly met one for ages, and as I live in the old Penrith and Border seat (Whitelaw, Rory, One Nation heartland), that is saying something. But they are out there somewhere.
Have you not been in the cafe in the Penrith Booths? I imagine they might gather there.
Good point. No! The new seat, Penrith and Solway embraces both Penrith and Maryport. This is known as diversity and inclusion. A seat with a touch of Witney/South Holland and a touch of Bootle. Should go Labour this time.
John McDonnell @johnmcdonnellMP · 1h I’ve consistently campaigned for scrapping of the 2 child limit but we heard tonight it will not be in manifesto. I know this is the very last minute for an appeal for an amendment to the Labour Manifesto but before it is published tomorrow I am appealing for this to be included.
John still doesn't seem to understand that Labour cannot just offer whatever people ask. As Tony Blair said, the strength for a Labour leader is to say "no". Saying yes is easy.
John McDonnell @johnmcdonnellMP · 1h I’ve consistently campaigned for scrapping of the 2 child limit but we heard tonight it will not be in manifesto. I know this is the very last minute for an appeal for an amendment to the Labour Manifesto but before it is published tomorrow I am appealing for this to be included.
I've got to say that it's not a benefit issue that comes up much in my experience. The bedroom tax is worse but much worse still is the evil and inept approach taken to make people jump through hoops to review their disability benefits every few years, including people with conditions that only a biblical miracle would improve.
All of the above. But the fact remains removing the two child cap is, by far, the most efficient and cost effective way to take children out of poverty. To the extent that if you choose not to do so, you are making the choice for child poverty. Yes it's a question of budget priorities, but what would you be prioritising above this?
The poor people having to many kids are the ones responsible for child poverty.
If you can't afford to bring them up, don't have them.
It’s a bit late for the children once they’ve been born.
John McDonnell @johnmcdonnellMP · 1h I’ve consistently campaigned for scrapping of the 2 child limit but we heard tonight it will not be in manifesto. I know this is the very last minute for an appeal for an amendment to the Labour Manifesto but before it is published tomorrow I am appealing for this to be included.
There aren’t any Brexiteers left. And I speak as a Brexiteer who would vote Brexit again tomorrow
i also tell the truth as I see it. Brexit is perceived as a failure and most people regret it and they would vote Remain now, polls even show they don’t care about Free Movement (and you can see why, when post Brexit immigration triples rather than falls)
Labour are shit scared of Brexit as a subject because of the Red Wall and because Starmer has bad previous as a 2nd voter. The Lib Dems have always been pro EU and wanted to REVOKE at the 2019 election (insane and evil but that was their policy)
This is a howling great opportunity for the LDs. The electorate is volatile, they regret Brexit, they want to reverse it, this won’t last, the Lib Dems could surge to 20%+ if they came out full throttle NOW as the join the SM and and vote on Rejoin party, which, if given some power, could then influence Labour to do this
It’s mad they can’t see this
Why
To own the libs, clearly…
There were many reasons to vote leave, and many to vote remain. I think an awful lot of people wanted the economic integration of the single market without the bullshit politics (ok, I’m mainly talking about me, but I don’t think I’m alone). In the end I judged that the market was worth the other, and voted remain, and lost. I think before Brexit a lot of rubbish was spoken and written blaming the EU and our membership for every I’ll. and after Brexit the reverse has happened - everything that’s wrong is down to Brexit. Both positions were are are stupid, and wrong. But it’s not dishonest to want to trade freely with our friends and allies across the channel without the need for a European Parliament, that in my eyes, doesn't seem to actually run the EU.
Do you honestly think it's been worth it?
The problem is, the alternative wasn't the status quo - it would have been interpreted as a full throated mandate for further integration and greater loss of sovereignty, probably the Euro without a referendum etc.
There are plenty of people like Turbo above, who 'wanted the integration of the single market without the bullshit politics' but that was never an option.
It is also getting harder to argue that the EU is a great club to be in as it lurches to the hard right and as the economic motor - Germany - stumbles towards economic Depression and serious discontent
For a while, I thought Brexit had saved the UK from a lurch to the hard right. Now, I think we've probably only delayed it. Our politicians are making similar mistakes, e.g. on immigration. Hence the return of the Faragistas.
Look at the economics slides put up by Sky in the post-debate coverage. a 20% inflationary spike since Covid. On top of decades of decay in so many places.
The rise of the hard right is what happens when economies fail voters. Reform are going to score more votes than UKIP did in 2015, and win seats. More importantly they are displacing the Tories as the populist right party.
Yes, I think that makes sense.
Look at most western nations (including the UK) GDP per capita since the GFC. Static at best. Immigrants tend to get the blame but may not be the cause. Populists benefit from that.
However, none of the main parties are offering an explanation or a solution. Farage, albeit crudely, is.
I’ve decided. I really hope Reform kills off the Conservative Party at this election. The Conservatives have to die ( ex-councillor and constituency association chairman).
I struggle to understand why this incarnation simply couldn't deliver.
Sky: 1/3 of 2019 Tory voters say Starmer won tonight...
So 2/3, which could help get him to the high twenties or 30%, thought he won.
Some of you need to reframe your thinking. If they have a brain, they know they are hated by most and almost certainly can’t win. The max target is 30% (or a bit more with a miracle), limit the Labour win or (on the best day, with a lot of luck, and weird other vote transfers) force NOM.
John McDonnell @johnmcdonnellMP · 1h I’ve consistently campaigned for scrapping of the 2 child limit but we heard tonight it will not be in manifesto. I know this is the very last minute for an appeal for an amendment to the Labour Manifesto but before it is published tomorrow I am appealing for this to be included.
I've got to say that it's not a benefit issue that comes up much in my experience. The bedroom tax is worse but much worse still is the evil and inept approach taken to make people jump through hoops to review their disability benefits every few years, including people with conditions that only a biblical miracle would improve.
All of the above. But the fact remains removing the two child cap is, by far, the most efficient and cost effective way to take children out of poverty. To the extent that if you choose not to do so, you are making the choice for child poverty. Yes it's a question of budget priorities, but what would you be prioritising above this?
The poor people having to many kids are the ones responsible for child poverty.
If you can't afford to bring them up, don't have them.
Are you economically Illiterate? The Uk economy can’t afford people to stop having kids !
This line of thinking is what is destroying the Uk. Birth rates are well below replacement rates !! Why can’t you see this is the countries biggest long-term problem?
That is a MASSIVE drop in Labour VI. I said a couple of days ago they will be nervous at the slide and was decried on here, they will be more than nervous now
No. They won’t. I decried you then and I decry you now. This is a PP reversion to the mean from the stupid LAB VI they had before.
Of course, dear. You’re not nervous at all
What kind of numbers do you think Labour could drift out too, and (presumably) the Tories gain, to bring the majority into question?
I'm sure if we Baxter them it will still bring a sizeable Labour majority
I honestly have no idea, does anyone? Reform could continue their rise - or fall back. Labour could continue to slide, or surge again
it’s a long campaign and neither of the big parties has much enthusiasm behind them, but the Tories are viscerally hated and Labour are merely tolerated as an alternative - for now
If I was in the Lib Dems I would be shouting loudly about Single Market membership immediately to peel off Labour Remainers, and then also a promise of referendum on Rejoin in a few years. That would be cat in the pigeons territory and could upend everything
I’ve no idea why they aren’t slotting this open goal
I will shit my boxers with pleasure if Labour slip into the 30s on the night.
Probably the one pleasure I will get. It will set off all sorts of internal recriminations and legitimacy questions, which will dog SKS for his whole time in office.
I am not sure shitting your boxers will give you any pleasure at all, and it will likely set off all sorts of recriminations in the Royale household. You're not going to get away with blaming that one on the dog.
I’ve decided. I really hope Reform kills off the Conservative Party at this election. The Conservatives have to die ( ex-councillor and constituency association chairman).
I struggle to understand why this incarnation simply couldn't deliver.
The Thatcher and Major administrations did.
I think that centralised control over candidate selection meant we finished up with lightweights, who were there to line their own pockets.
That is a MASSIVE drop in Labour VI. I said a couple of days ago they will be nervous at the slide and was decried on here, they will be more than nervous now
No. They won’t. I decried you then and I decry you now. This is a PP reversion to the mean from the stupid LAB VI they had before.
Of course, dear. You’re not nervous at all
No, I’m not. Because I’m not a Labour supporter. I’m a former Lib Dem member who was roundly decried on here for quitting in a huff. Get off the board, the internet, in fact the fucking planet. Read what other people are saying rather than spending all day in a self congratulatory cock polishing session.
Er, I’ve been working hard all morning making flints and then spent the afternoon walking around the moody old Jewish quarters of Odessa, famed from Isaac Babel’s wonderful short stories
Now I sit here waiting for the first of Putin’s Persian drones and Iskander missiles; he always attacks at night, It’s like the African Savannah, the predators roam nocturnally, and we are the prey, the zebras and gazelles, eyes bright and wide and fearful, in the moonlight of the wilds
I can't help viewing this exchange in the light of the few minutes of debate that I just watched. Doug, the angry audience member. You with your impalpable waffle, impervious to the fact that three quarters of the people reading your words think you're swine.
I overheard two women on the tube yesterday talking about politics. One had a 'palestine' bag but they didn't seem like activists. They looked like they may have gone to SOAS ten years ago. Anyway they concluded that they prefer Sunak to Starmer.
I'm not detecting any enthusiasm for Starmer.
It's entirely driven by a desire to eject the existing administration.
If Starmer confuses that for a real mandate to do whatever he likes once he's in office he's going to very quickly run into real trouble.
The mandate will be having a majority in the House of Commons.
I despise the word mandate. It is so misused - the Tories didn;t have one apparently despite winning elections, or the other way it is claimed to cover everything even if not covered by a manifesto.
Starmer has been cautious up until now, he may be more radical in office and face consequences in public support, but that's the fate of all winners. That he may find things more difficult and lose support later is not an unsurprising idea.
That is a MASSIVE drop in Labour VI. I said a couple of days ago they will be nervous at the slide and was decried on here, they will be more than nervous now
No. They won’t. I decried you then and I decry you now. This is a PP reversion to the mean from the stupid LAB VI they had before.
Of course, dear. You’re not nervous at all
No, I’m not. Because I’m not a Labour supporter. I’m a former Lib Dem member who was roundly decried on here for quitting in a huff. Get off the board, the internet, in fact the fucking planet. Read what other people are saying rather than spending all day in a self congratulatory cock polishing session.
Er, I’ve been working hard all morning making flints and then spent the afternoon walking around the moody old Jewish quarters of Odessa, famed from Isaac Babel’s wonderful short stories
Now I sit here waiting for the first of Putin’s Persian drones and Iskander missiles; he always attacks at night, It’s like the African Savannah, the predators roam nocturnally, and we are the prey, the zebras and gazelles, eyes bright and wide and fearful, in the moonlight of the wilds
I can't help viewing this exchange in the light of the few minutes of debate that I just watched. Doug, the angry audience member. You with your impalpable waffle, impervious to the fact that three quarters of the people reading your words think you're swine.
You are Rishi Sunak.
No, I’m a professional artist and writer who is being paid to be in Odessa, magical Odessa, during a war! - and you are a fuck up stuck in a bedsit in drizzly Aberdeen, and that sends you - and several other PB-ers - absolutely insane with badly disguised jealousy. Which I gleefully stoke
Hey, I didn't say I was in the three quarters, Rishi. I'm actually a huge fan. I do wish you'd tone it down with romanticising war, though. I know after a few glasses you like lurching to rag-time tunes but it makes you seem like a bit of a ghoul.
Personal question. Do you have aspirations to be a writer? I sense that maybe you do
I rather liked your limerick earlier on, it’s hard to nail a limerick, and you did
There was a young man called Farage Who one day got locked in his garage He campaigned so hard But let down his guard And fell to an electoral barrage.
If you like to subvert the metric form, here's one for you. Sorry it's a bit silly.
A poet of note, Prasannan Wrote a poem for Bananamanan It said "I just feel That you've got the appeal. Lots of love, your number one fanananan"
I’ve decided. I really hope Reform kills off the Conservative Party at this election. The Conservatives have to die ( ex-councillor and constituency association chairman).
I struggle to understand why this incarnation simply couldn't deliver.
The Thatcher and Major administrations did.
I think that centralised control over candidate selection meant we finished up with lightweights, who were there to line their own pockets.
It's one theory, but are candidates we know are chosen with local support really that much better?
I’ve decided. I really hope Reform kills off the Conservative Party at this election. The Conservatives have to die ( ex-councillor and constituency association chairman).
@Benpointer has a nice preview of your wish coming true:
1. Running down military capacity, at a time of rising international tension. 2. Gutting the criminal justice system. 3. Ending border controls.
Yes these are inexcusable.
The moment things went wrong was when Cummings left and got 'replaced' briefly by Carrie, things just got confused after that. After 2022 the basis on which they won was abandoned. The Conservatives were governing with no legitimacy. This situation now is a lesson about the risks of doing this.
Carrie was a turning point, and I concur with Sean F’s three points. The Tories need to die, now
I’d never thought of it this way before but without Covid, the Cummings/Johnson team would have lasted longer and would have had more chance to show results.
Cummings had an actual post-Brexit plan. Parts of it may have been mad, and maybe he was the wrong guy to deliver it, even from the back room, but it was a plan and it was coherent - deregulate, level up, restrict immigration to highly skilled, focus on technology and destroy the Woke blob that stops everything and slows everything else. But Boris is led by his dick and fell for Carrie and got distracted and then came Covid and the war. It’s a tragedy, really. Boris had the political rizz and Cummings had the brains - it might just have worked
instead the Tories lie in ruins and the rubble needs to be cleared away, so we can start again
I get quite a scary vibe from Carrie. I don't think Boris is going to leave her and the family. Not without incurring severe bodily harm.
lol yeah, likewise. Quite feminine but a wildcat if crossed. Vagina dentata
Labour will make that free on the NHS.
You can’t get a dentist now, how bad will it be if the ladies get a second set?
It takes account of recent polling changes and is also now based on the final candidates list. It shows Lab 403, Con 172, LD34, SNP 18 (a Lab majority of 158).
Cons a big buy, if you're right.
That's a pretty similar forecast to my own.
With the caveat that it's entirely possible that things go entirely tits up for the Conservative party in the next three weeks.
I think it's now down to brand loyalty, how much death there is left in a party, and every man for himself.
A twist in this election would be for Farage to have a fit of hubris and overstep the mark (or for some dark secret to be exposed) and for Reform's bubble to deflate. That might help Labour a bit, but I think Labour are going to be even more defensive over the rest of the campaign than they have been for the last couple of weeks.
Plus there are an awful lot of 50:50 Tories out there. They want the Tories to be punished - but not at the expense of a Labour government. Maybe scaring them shitless with polling in the 20's might be enough to jerk the choke chain. Then the polling-booth pencil muscle memory kicks in - and they return to type.
When you drill down on the doorstep with "former" Tories, as adamant as they might be the Government doesn't deserve their vote, by the time you have had a chat, a significant portion indicate they will likely vote Conservative on the day. Now, that might be because we have a highly regarded candidate who has been a solid, hard-working constituency MP. Or it might be down to my superior sales patter. But I still think there is a good 6%-8% that can still be turned around in the remains of this campaign.
John McDonnell @johnmcdonnellMP · 1h I’ve consistently campaigned for scrapping of the 2 child limit but we heard tonight it will not be in manifesto. I know this is the very last minute for an appeal for an amendment to the Labour Manifesto but before it is published tomorrow I am appealing for this to be included.
I've got to say that it's not a benefit issue that comes up much in my experience. The bedroom tax is worse but much worse still is the evil and inept approach taken to make people jump through hoops to review their disability benefits every few years, including people with conditions that only a biblical miracle would improve.
All of the above. But the fact remains removing the two child cap is, by far, the most efficient and cost effective way to take children out of poverty. To the extent that if you choose not to do so, you are making the choice for child poverty. Yes it's a question of budget priorities, but what would you be prioritising above this?
The poor people having to many kids are the ones responsible for child poverty.
If you can't afford to bring them up, don't have them.
Hard to know where to start with where and how much I disagree with this. Fewer babies is the last thing our ageing society wants or needs. A decent society makes family life possible for all economic groups and uses a universal education system to maximise equality of opportunity for the poorest. If there is a greater joy in life than having several children I don't know what it is. No-one should feel denied this in a country as wealthy as ours.
That is a MASSIVE drop in Labour VI. I said a couple of days ago they will be nervous at the slide and was decried on here, they will be more than nervous now
No. They won’t. I decried you then and I decry you now. This is a PP reversion to the mean from the stupid LAB VI they had before.
Of course, dear. You’re not nervous at all
No, I’m not. Because I’m not a Labour supporter. I’m a former Lib Dem member who was roundly decried on here for quitting in a huff. Get off the board, the internet, in fact the fucking planet. Read what other people are saying rather than spending all day in a self congratulatory cock polishing session.
Er, I’ve been working hard all morning making flints and then spent the afternoon walking around the moody old Jewish quarters of Odessa, famed from Isaac Babel’s wonderful short stories
Now I sit here waiting for the first of Putin’s Persian drones and Iskander missiles; he always attacks at night, It’s like the African Savannah, the predators roam nocturnally, and we are the prey, the zebras and gazelles, eyes bright and wide and fearful, in the moonlight of the wilds
I can't help viewing this exchange in the light of the few minutes of debate that I just watched. Doug, the angry audience member. You with your impalpable waffle, impervious to the fact that three quarters of the people reading your words think you're swine.
You are Rishi Sunak.
No, I’m a professional artist and writer who is being paid to be in Odessa, magical Odessa, during a war! - and you are a fuck up stuck in a bedsit in drizzly Aberdeen, and that sends you - and several other PB-ers - absolutely insane with badly disguised jealousy. Which I gleefully stoke
Hey, I didn't say I was in the three quarters, Rishi. I'm actually a huge fan. I do wish you'd tone it down with romanticising war, though. I know after a few glasses you like lurching to rag-time tunes but it makes you seem like a bit of a ghoul.
Personal question. Do you have aspirations to be a writer? I sense that maybe you do
I rather liked your limerick earlier on, it’s hard to nail a limerick, and you did
There was a young man called Farage Who one day got locked in his garage He campaigned so hard But let down his guard And fell to an electoral barrage.
That’s….. quite bad. Needs work on the scansion. Sorry Sunil!
Did Farage once say his surname rhymes with garage, or is that an urban myth?
I hope it's true because where I come from we'd all have to start calling him Nigel Farridge, which suits him better I think.
Its a good job for Sunak that Starmer didn't agree to 6 weekly debates. If he is broken after a couple of them, it wouldn't have ended well.
Sunak would have run away, useless coward that he is.
I just think he's entirely unprepared for the skills needed for a frontline politician.
Smooth selection for a safe seat isn't it.
Saw a goosipy titbit earlier that Rishi had made pretty extensive use of "get selected for a good seat" consultants to get into Parliament in the first place. OK, it's a free market and it's up to him how he spends his money, but it's another of those "are we sure this is desirable" phenomena.
I'm not keen on the extent to which politicians outsource aspects of their job to others, or at waving a chequebook at personal frailty. But some of the main victims are the polticians themselves, because they arrive at the top seriously undercooked.
Missed in all the excitement of who did / didn't have Sky, the UK economy didn't grow over the last period. No going gangbusters.
This is the reality of what Starmer will have to work with, an unproductive weak growth economy with far too many people are economically inactive. This is not 1997.
It will be fascinating to see the volte-face by liberal middle-aged men on here if the young turn rapidly to the right in the coming years.
No sign of it at present. Young Reform voters are even rarer than young Tory voters.
Not true. Look at the latest YouGov. Reform are ahead of the Tories among 18-24 year olds and 25-49 year olds. It’s only pensioners holding up the Tory share.
Just back from dinner. Fabulous restaurant, pretty decent wine too. I surmise that Keir avoided beheading any kittens live on air while enthusiastically singing la Marseillaise, and was therefore judged the clear winner of the thingy? Well done Keir.
I feel that this is an appropriate moment to offer a verse in his honour, but am struggling with booze-induced writer's block. I can practically feel your disappointment. But such is life.
Just back from dinner. Fabulous restaurant, pretty decent wine too. I surmise that Keir avoided beheading any kittens live on air while enthusiastically singing la Marseillaise, and was therefore judged the clear winner of the thingy? Well done Keir.
I feel that this is an appropriate moment to offer a verse in his honour, but am struggling with booze-induced writer's block. I can practically feel your disappointment. But such is life.
It will be fascinating to see the volte-face by liberal middle-aged men on here if the young turn rapidly to the right in the coming years.
There’s no reason to assume the UK is different to other advanced democracies.
So how, then, can we explain why it is different now? If it's different now why should it be the same in the future? The fact we've been governed into the ground by Thatcherism and its cosplay version for 45 years, rather than by social/Christian democratic consensus?
John McDonnell @johnmcdonnellMP · 1h I’ve consistently campaigned for scrapping of the 2 child limit but we heard tonight it will not be in manifesto. I know this is the very last minute for an appeal for an amendment to the Labour Manifesto but before it is published tomorrow I am appealing for this to be included.
I've got to say that it's not a benefit issue that comes up much in my experience. The bedroom tax is worse but much worse still is the evil and inept approach taken to make people jump through hoops to review their disability benefits every few years, including people with conditions that only a biblical miracle would improve.
All of the above. But the fact remains removing the two child cap is, by far, the most efficient and cost effective way to take children out of poverty. To the extent that if you choose not to do so, you are making the choice for child poverty. Yes it's a question of budget priorities, but what would you be prioritising above this?
The poor people having to many kids are the ones responsible for child poverty.
If you can't afford to bring them up, don't have them.
Are you economically Illiterate? The Uk economy can’t afford people to stop having kids !
This line of thinking is what is destroying the Uk. Birth rates are well below replacement rates !! Why can’t you see this is the countries biggest long-term problem?
He hates humans and thinks we are a scourge the universe could do without. Curiously, he doesn’t volunteer himself for euthanasia.
I’ve decided. I really hope Reform kills off the Conservative Party at this election. The Conservatives have to die ( ex-councillor and constituency association chairman).
I struggle to understand why this incarnation simply couldn't deliver.
The Thatcher and Major administrations did.
I think that centralised control over candidate selection meant we finished up with lightweights, who were there to line their own pockets.
Or, it rewarded those with slick soundbite media skills rather than those with the talent and depth of experience to think for themselves, and lead.
Now I think about it the only real two serious characters are, I think, Hague and Gove.
He got a bit obsessed with Angelina Jolie whilst Foreign Secretary but Hague is the only one I think who had the ability to think round corners and make lucid arguments.
He'd probably have neither run down our defences and courts, and would probably have delivered on Bloomberg - were it not for the 2001GE cutting him off at the knees.
It takes account of recent polling changes and is also now based on the final candidates list. It shows Lab 403, Con 172, LD34, SNP 18 (a Lab majority of 158).
Cons a big buy, if you're right.
That's a pretty similar forecast to my own.
With the caveat that it's entirely possible that things go entirely tits up for the Conservative party in the next three weeks.
I think it's now down to brand loyalty, how much death there is left in a party, and every man for himself.
A twist in this election would be for Farage to have a fit of hubris and overstep the mark (or for some dark secret to be exposed) and for Reform's bubble to deflate. That might help Labour a bit, but I think Labour are going to be even more defensive over the rest of the campaign than they have been for the last couple of weeks.
Plus there are an awful lot of 50:50 Tories out there. They want the Tories to be punished - but not at the expense of a Labour government. Maybe scaring them shitless with polling in the 20's might be enough to jerk the choke chain. Then the polling-booth pencil muscle memory kicks in - and they return to type.
When you drill down on the doorstep with "former" Tories, as adamant as they might be the Government doesn't deserve their vote, by the time you have had a chat, a significant portion indicate they will likely vote Conservative on the day. Now, that might be because we have a highly regarded candidate who has been a solid, hard-working constituency MP. Or it might be down to my superior sales patter. But I still think there is a good 6%-8% that can still be turned around in the remains of this campaign.
Maybe saying this is no longer about Rishi (screw him) might even increase the Conservative vote.
It takes account of recent polling changes and is also now based on the final candidates list. It shows Lab 403, Con 172, LD34, SNP 18 (a Lab majority of 158).
Cons a big buy, if you're right.
That's a pretty similar forecast to my own.
With the caveat that it's entirely possible that things go entirely tits up for the Conservative party in the next three weeks.
It takes account of recent polling changes and is also now based on the final candidates list. It shows Lab 403, Con 172, LD34, SNP 18 (a Lab majority of 158).
Cons a big buy, if you're right.
That's a pretty similar forecast to my own.
With the caveat that it's entirely possible that things go entirely tits up for the Conservative party in the next three weeks.
I think it's now down to brand loyalty, how much death there is left in a party, and every man for himself.
A twist in this election would be for Farage to have a fit of hubris and overstep the mark (or for some dark secret to be exposed) and for Reform's bubble to deflate. That might help Labour a bit, but I think Labour are going to be even more defensive over the rest of the campaign than they have been for the last couple of weeks.
Plus there are an awful lot of 50:50 Tories out there. They want the Tories to be punished - but not at the expense of a Labour government. Maybe scaring them shitless with polling in the 20's might be enough to jerk the choke chain. Then the polling-booth pencil muscle memory kicks in - and they return to type.
When you drill down on the doorstep with "former" Tories, as adamant as they might be the Government doesn't deserve their vote, by the time you have had a chat, a significant portion indicate they will likely vote Conservative on the day. Now, that might be because we have a highly regarded candidate who has been a solid, hard-working constituency MP. Or it might be down to my superior sales patter. But I still think there is a good 6%-8% that can still be turned around in the remains of this campaign.
That's my experience too in my (far more limited) experience of talking to traditional Tory voters. There is palpable anger but this doesn't quite overcome the block against voting Labour, and the ones I've spoken to (mostly parents and friends of parents) aren't in the slightest bit interested in Reform (more so Lib Dems but don't like the local candidate). I strongly suspect the end result on July 4th will be some way short of the disaster that current polls indicate, mostly because of the 'my local candidate is a good'un' conceit.
John McDonnell @johnmcdonnellMP · 1h I’ve consistently campaigned for scrapping of the 2 child limit but we heard tonight it will not be in manifesto. I know this is the very last minute for an appeal for an amendment to the Labour Manifesto but before it is published tomorrow I am appealing for this to be included.
I've got to say that it's not a benefit issue that comes up much in my experience. The bedroom tax is worse but much worse still is the evil and inept approach taken to make people jump through hoops to review their disability benefits every few years, including people with conditions that only a biblical miracle would improve.
All of the above. But the fact remains removing the two child cap is, by far, the most efficient and cost effective way to take children out of poverty. To the extent that if you choose not to do so, you are making the choice for child poverty. Yes it's a question of budget priorities, but what would you be prioritising above this?
The poor people having to many kids are the ones responsible for child poverty.
If you can't afford to bring them up, don't have them.
Hard to know where to start with where and how much I disagree with this. Fewer babies is the last thing our ageing society wants or needs...
That teenager rage:
"I didn't ask to be born. Especially not to provide for you in older age, when you are doubly incontitent...."
I’ve decided. I really hope Reform kills off the Conservative Party at this election. The Conservatives have to die ( ex-councillor and constituency association chairman).
I struggle to understand why this incarnation simply couldn't deliver.
The Thatcher and Major administrations did.
I think that centralised control over candidate selection meant we finished up with lightweights, who were there to line their own pockets.
The riposte to that would be that constituency associations are the plaything of a small number of obsessives who aren't very reflective of the general population, or even average Tory voter.
I’ve decided. I really hope Reform kills off the Conservative Party at this election. The Conservatives have to die ( ex-councillor and constituency association chairman).
I struggle to understand why this incarnation simply couldn't deliver.
The Thatcher and Major administrations did.
Here is my take. Thatcher and Major were rooted in reality. They understood the situation and proposed a route through it. Frankly, same with Blair. All partially. Remember, "Yes it hurt, yes it worked". Economy was broken by my predecessor, I took action which was painful but look at the results.
Sunak talks the talk - I did Furlough. But the problem is that h isn't rooted in reality. Listen to him tonight. In denial about tax. In denial about migration. In denial about inflation.
Your party are lying to people. Saying they have cut taxes as everyone sees taxes going up. Says they have got inflation under control as costs continue to go mad. Says migration is down as it rises. That waiting lists are down as they rise. That migration is reducing as it increases.
Compare and contrast with Farage. You may hate his solutions. His style. His dog-whistling, But it is all rooted in reality.
What happened to the Conservative Party? It isn't just this lot. Its Fuck Business. Its we've had enough of experts. Its denial of the impacts of the Brexit deal on farming and fishing and industry. Whatever happened to capitalism? Of investment? Of good money management?
G7 leaders agree to send $50bn of frozen Russian assets to Ukraine
The countries came to an agreement on Wednesday after significant pressure from the US, which has argued the profits from Russian assets should be used to secure loans for Kyiv. The US separately said it would sign a security agreement with Kyiv to lock in American support for a decade.
Title – Homecoming – not sure why that is the case,
Quote from R. H. Tawney, never heard of him.
36 pages only, so light on detail.
Design is good – simple headings (unlike the tortured Green and Tory headings), with intro paragraphs and then bullet point lists for each one.
Foreword – theme of family, neighbourhood, and nation. Government addicted to short term fixes. Problems have cultural causes.
Constitution –
English parliament outside London (note – this the first policy in the whole thing, which is interesting start, feels like constitutional stuff is a wonk concern), PR with multi member constituencies under D’Hondt, Bill of Rights, reintroduce Law Lords and abolish supreme court. Hereditary peers and bishops abolished and no political honours, new house of 400 peers to serve for 15 years.
Withdraw from ECHR, Council of Europe, Refugee Convention
Additional regional bodies and tax raising for local authorities
Government reform – Nolan principles to be upheld, EDI roles to be abolished, public sector to appoint on merit, defund many public bodies, replace senior civil servants if departments do not deliver on quarterly performance metrics based on surveys of taxpayers
Local government – enhance role of parish and community councils, increase capacity of core services, national audit to benchmark council performance and send data to all households before elections. No officer to be paid more than the PM. PCCs abolished, national corruption office to investigate allegations of local government fraud
Governance of national enterprises – Natural monopolies under government ownership, annual business plans, board members must have experience in industry but cannot have any financial interest in it.
Scottish referendum – they’re against one (but say it in 4 ways)
Social Market economy – railways, water, gas, transportation, electricity into public ownership. National Development bank. Public expenditure at 40% GDP
Industry – national industry strategy, british development board, Buy british bill, Works Council
International trade – aim to reduce trade deficit. Tax advantaged free ports, respect state aid provisions
Taxation – OECD regime for minimum rates of taxation implemented. Annual allowance restored to all income levels. Vacant property tax. Online purchases tax.
Transport – nationalize rail. Great northern railway network funded by the scaling back of HS2. Fund bus travel. Contactless payment uk wide for all public travel.licence tests for e-scooters. Landing fee tax for private jets.
Off topic, but often discussed here: If Prime Minister Sunak flees to California after losing the election, will he improve the state, have no effect on the state, or make it worse?
Reminder: Net, California has been losing population, under its current leadership. Here's a recent example of some less-than-optimal results, that may help explain why people are leaving: "In March last year, California Gov. Gavin Newsom promised 1,200 tiny homes to temporarily house homeless people, specifically those who already live in encampments, in four major regions across the Golden State. . . . . Yet a year after the governor’s announcement, the tiny homes have not housed a single resident, and only about 150 of them have even been purchased by the state and cities so far. Changing parameters from the state, along with other bureaucratic delays, are to blame for the standstill."
Just back from dinner. Fabulous restaurant, pretty decent wine too. I surmise that Keir avoided beheading any kittens live on air while enthusiastically singing la Marseillaise, and was therefore judged the clear winner of the thingy? Well done Keir.
I feel that this is an appropriate moment to offer a verse in his honour, but am struggling with booze-induced writer's block. I can practically feel your disappointment. But such is life.
Never mind that - where was the restaurant?
Burnham Market in Norfolk. There are many nice places in North Norfolk. Tourist trade plus oodles of well heeled retirees = dosh.
It will be fascinating to see the volte-face by liberal middle-aged men on here if the young turn rapidly to the right in the coming years.
There’s no reason to assume the UK is different to other advanced democracies.
So how, then, can we explain why it is different now? If it's different now why should it be the same in the future? The fact we've been governed into the ground by Thatcherism and its cosplay version for 45 years, rather than by social/Christian democratic consensus?
Every Western democracy is high tax/ high spend/ high regulate, regardless of the rhetoric.
John McDonnell @johnmcdonnellMP · 1h I’ve consistently campaigned for scrapping of the 2 child limit but we heard tonight it will not be in manifesto. I know this is the very last minute for an appeal for an amendment to the Labour Manifesto but before it is published tomorrow I am appealing for this to be included.
I've got to say that it's not a benefit issue that comes up much in my experience. The bedroom tax is worse but much worse still is the evil and inept approach taken to make people jump through hoops to review their disability benefits every few years, including people with conditions that only a biblical miracle would improve.
All of the above. But the fact remains removing the two child cap is, by far, the most efficient and cost effective way to take children out of poverty. To the extent that if you choose not to do so, you are making the choice for child poverty. Yes it's a question of budget priorities, but what would you be prioritising above this?
Also, Slab fought at least one by election claiming they would remove the cap.
I’ve decided. I really hope Reform kills off the Conservative Party at this election. The Conservatives have to die ( ex-councillor and constituency association chairman).
I struggle to understand why this incarnation simply couldn't deliver.
The Thatcher and Major administrations did.
I think that centralised control over candidate selection meant we finished up with lightweights, who were there to line their own pockets.
The riposte to that would be that constituency associations are the plaything of a small number of obsessives who aren't very reflective of the general population, or even average Tory voter.
That's true of party memberships full stop. Which is why we can predict with a fair degree of certainty that Sunak will be replaced by an extreme right wing lunatic spouting Trumpian nonsense.
It will be fascinating to see the volte-face by liberal middle-aged men on here if the young turn rapidly to the right in the coming years.
There’s no reason to assume the UK is different to other advanced democracies.
So how, then, can we explain why it is different now? If it's different now why should it be the same in the future? The fact we've been governed into the ground by Thatcherism and its cosplay version for 45 years, rather than by social/Christian democratic consensus?
Every Western democracy is high tax/ high spend/ high regulate, regardless of the rhetoric.
As you perceive it. So why are the young in this country overwhelmingly of the Left and the old of the Right? To an extent not seen in any other developed nation?
Just back from dinner. Fabulous restaurant, pretty decent wine too. I surmise that Keir avoided beheading any kittens live on air while enthusiastically singing la Marseillaise, and was therefore judged the clear winner of the thingy? Well done Keir.
I feel that this is an appropriate moment to offer a verse in his honour, but am struggling with booze-induced writer's block. I can practically feel your disappointment. But such is life.
Never mind that - where was the restaurant?
Burnham Market in Norfolk. There are many nice places in North Norfolk. Tourist trade plus oodles of well heeled retirees = dosh.
Funnily enough when we were in North Norfolk last summer we went to a few upmarket seafood places on the ocst which were ok but we had an absolutely stupendous meal in an inauspicious Thai run pub near Thursford - the Crawfish Inn. All the better for being unexpected.
I’ve decided. I really hope Reform kills off the Conservative Party at this election. The Conservatives have to die ( ex-councillor and constituency association chairman).
I struggle to understand why this incarnation simply couldn't deliver.
The Thatcher and Major administrations did.
I think that centralised control over candidate selection meant we finished up with lightweights, who were there to line their own pockets.
Starmer has ensured the NEC is just as centralised in terms of Labour candidates shortlists, see their imposition of their own candidates in Chingford and Brighton Kemptown over local Labour parties choices
It takes account of recent polling changes and is also now based on the final candidates list. It shows Lab 403, Con 172, LD34, SNP 18 (a Lab majority of 158).
Cons a big buy, if you're right.
That's a pretty similar forecast to my own.
With the caveat that it's entirely possible that things go entirely tits up for the Conservative party in the next three weeks.
I think it's now down to brand loyalty, how much death there is left in a party, and every man for himself.
A twist in this election would be for Farage to have a fit of hubris and overstep the mark (or for some dark secret to be exposed) and for Reform's bubble to deflate. That might help Labour a bit, but I think Labour are going to be even more defensive over the rest of the campaign than they have been for the last couple of weeks.
Plus there are an awful lot of 50:50 Tories out there. They want the Tories to be punished - but not at the expense of a Labour government. Maybe scaring them shitless with polling in the 20's might be enough to jerk the choke chain. Then the polling-booth pencil muscle memory kicks in - and they return to type.
When you drill down on the doorstep with "former" Tories, as adamant as they might be the Government doesn't deserve their vote, by the time you have had a chat, a significant portion indicate they will likely vote Conservative on the day. Now, that might be because we have a highly regarded candidate who has been a solid, hard-working constituency MP. Or it might be down to my superior sales patter. But I still think there is a good 6%-8% that can still be turned around in the remains of this campaign.
Maybe saying this is no longer about Rishi (screw him) might even increase the Conservative vote.
Everyone's assumption (including Rishi's) is that Rishi is toast after the election. He isn't a material factor any more.
It will be fascinating to see the volte-face by liberal middle-aged men on here if the young turn rapidly to the right in the coming years.
There’s no reason to assume the UK is different to other advanced democracies.
Alternatively, there is no reason to assume that other advanced democracies are different to us.
The challenges faced by every country are pretty much the same: competition from emerging markets for resources, shitty demographics and insufficient housing provision leading to costs rising faster than incomes.
And this has been compounded by countries attempting to solve the second issue via immigration and lying.
None of the political parties are honest about the challenges facing the UK, either because they don't understand them, or because they fear that concentrating on the negatives wouldn't do them any favours with the electorate.
Neither the Faragist Right, nor the Corbyn Left has solutions. Heck, it's not even clear they understand what the problems are.
Above all, we need to pay our way in the world. Because the willingness of the rest of the world to lend us money to pay for us to import things we don't make and don't need is not unlimited.
Just back from dinner. Fabulous restaurant, pretty decent wine too. I surmise that Keir avoided beheading any kittens live on air while enthusiastically singing la Marseillaise, and was therefore judged the clear winner of the thingy? Well done Keir.
I feel that this is an appropriate moment to offer a verse in his honour, but am struggling with booze-induced writer's block. I can practically feel your disappointment. But such is life.
Donkey lovers don't Meet kittens with katanas In our multiverse.
It will be fascinating to see the volte-face by liberal middle-aged men on here if the young turn rapidly to the right in the coming years.
There’s no reason to assume the UK is different to other advanced democracies.
So how, then, can we explain why it is different now? If it's different now why should it be the same in the future? The fact we've been governed into the ground by Thatcherism and its cosplay version for 45 years, rather than by social/Christian democratic consensus?
Every Western democracy is high tax/ high spend/ high regulate, regardless of the rhetoric.
And that's because the promises made during times voters hark back to have costs that we're paying now.
Pensions,welfare and social security - National resilience strategy. Long term unemployment abolished – local authorities to employ people for civic improvement projects. State pension increased in sustainable metric based way not political reasons (note – means nothing). National insurance ID cards for all citizens.
Tech regulation – age control for smart phones for under 16s. banned in school. Strengthen online safety act. Advertising online gambling banned. Legal age to access pornography raised to 18 (note – it isn’t already?)
Sex based rights – sex segregation in sport, prisons, women’s refuges. Medical gatekeeping for trans.
Defence – 2.5% GDP. Overhaul defence procurement (note – everyone promises this). 10 days leave for reservists. Increase MI5 and NCA spending. Restore the offence of sedition and pursue inciters of terrorism.
Foreign affairs – No intervention unless direct threat to national security. Review all international treaties and withdraw if appropriate. Defence pact sought with Canada, NZ, and Aus. Forestall Chinese control of uk infrastructure. Get rid of 0.7% overseas aid. Supportive of Russia (note - says condemns ‘self defeating’ invasion and supports resistance, but pushes for cessation of military activity, ie allow Russia to hold its gains).
Crime and Justice – increase front line police resources significantly (note – no detail). Courts funding so justice no later than 3 months after charge. Sentences for repeat offenders to double. 3 strikes law for serious offences. Anyone released from prison given a job with a partner employer at minimum wage funded by government, if they have no job to go to. Deport and bar foreign cannibals. On the spot fines for cannabis use.
Its a good job for Sunak that Starmer didn't agree to 6 weekly debates. If he is broken after a couple of them, it wouldn't have ended well.
Sunak would have run away, useless coward that he is.
I just think he's entirely unprepared for the skills needed for a frontline politician.
Smooth selection for a safe seat isn't it.
Saw a goosipy titbit earlier that Rishi had made pretty extensive use of "get selected for a good seat" consultants to get into Parliament in the first place. OK, it's a free market and it's up to him how he spends his money, but it's another of those "are we sure this is desirable" phenomena.
I'm not keen on the extent to which politicians outsource aspects of their job to others, or at waving a chequebook at personal frailty. But some of the main victims are the polticians themselves, because they arrive at the top seriously undercooked.
The basic problem Sunak has with his gilded rise is that it also coincided with a time the Tories were playing on easy mode and in government. Thus he's never actually had to deal with political failure (other than the brief loss to Truss, swiftly 'corrected') or the idea that the public have fallen out with your party and politics, and you may need to rethink your ideas and ask people why they are rejecting you.
He hasn't learned the skills other politicians learned either in opposition or having to fight their way to the top over a long period in which they have constantly had to prove themselves in different roles.
Something similar happened with the New Labour SpAds turned politicians in that they got so used to following a template that had been successful for Blair and Brown, that they looked clueless when Britain had got fed up with them.
Or conversely, you can look at Starmer - who is far from a natural politician. But entered into politics in possibly the worst period in Labour's modern history if you were on the centre-left. He appears to have been hardened by it into having fairly sound judgment about the fundamentals of Labour's positioning and who it listens to (not puffed up Guardian columnists), even while lacking the flair to make that exciting.
He's learned some useful political skills by having to negotiate and repair Labour being a basketcase and seemingly out of power for the foreseeable he really wouldn't have if he'd arrived as Keir Starmer QC in 2001 or 2005 as a Blair or Brown protege.
Off topic, but often discussed here: If Prime Minister Sunak flees to California after losing the election, will he improve the state, have no effect on the state, or make it worse?
Reminder: Net, California has been losing population, under its current leadership. Here's a recent example of some less-than-optimal results, that may help explain why people are leaving: "In March last year, California Gov. Gavin Newsom promised 1,200 tiny homes to temporarily house homeless people, specifically those who already live in encampments, in four major regions across the Golden State. . . . . Yet a year after the governor’s announcement, the tiny homes have not housed a single resident, and only about 150 of them have even been purchased by the state and cities so far. Changing parameters from the state, along with other bureaucratic delays, are to blame for the standstill."
Totally irrelevant. He'd just be one bloke, who isn't well known in the US, moving to a state. I mean, good luck to him, but I don't see how it could possibly be relevant to the price of fish.
I’ve decided. I really hope Reform kills off the Conservative Party at this election. The Conservatives have to die ( ex-councillor and constituency association chairman).
I struggle to understand why this incarnation simply couldn't deliver.
The Thatcher and Major administrations did.
Here is my take. Thatcher and Major were rooted in reality. They understood the situation and proposed a route through it. Frankly, same with Blair. All partially. Remember, "Yes it hurt, yes it worked". Economy was broken by my predecessor, I took action which was painful but look at the results.
Sunak talks the talk - I did Furlough. But the problem is that h isn't rooted in reality. Listen to him tonight. In denial about tax. In denial about migration. In denial about inflation.
Your party are lying to people. Saying they have cut taxes as everyone sees taxes going up. Says they have got inflation under control as costs continue to go mad. Says migration is down as it rises. That waiting lists are down as they rise. That migration is reducing as it increases.
Compare and contrast with Farage. You may hate his solutions. His style. His dog-whistling, But it is all rooted in reality.
What happened to the Conservative Party? It isn't just this lot. Its Fuck Business. Its we've had enough of experts. Its denial of the impacts of the Brexit deal on farming and fishing and industry. Whatever happened to capitalism? Of investment? Of good money management?
I think this failing is really one of late-stage Cameronism.
If people are struggling to get on the housing ladder, instead of looking at the structural causes, you just have a policy called "Help to Buy" and ignore the 101 other things you're doing that make the problem worse.
Comments
With the caveat that it's entirely possible that things go entirely tits up for the Conservative party in the next three weeks.
Sunak representing the UK.
OK, make that G6.5
It's entirely driven by a desire to eject the existing administration.
If Starmer confuses that for a real mandate to do whatever he likes once he's in office he's going to very quickly run into real trouble.
Also DKs making up their minds too.
That bet is still available with Sky Bet but its now only 13/8 but based on the last 5 polls should be odds on DYOR
I hope it's true because where I come from we'd all have to start calling him Nigel Farridge, which suits him better I think.
The rise of the hard right is what happens when economies fail voters. Reform are going to score more votes than UKIP did in 2015, and win seats. More importantly they are displacing the Tories as the populist right party.
Smooth selection for a safe seat isn't it.
But that is after. This is about before. There may not be enthusiasm for Starmer. Or Labour. But there is massive enthusiasm for not Tory. And increasingly for smashing the Tories. And not just from the centre or left - from the right.
If you can't afford to bring them up, don't have them.
If asked in a poll I will honestly say, I am voting LibDem, because it will best achieve my aims given the seat I am in. So I won't count in the Lab %.
Make schools more like startups: 90% of kids fail.
Make lockdown compulsory except if you don't want to.
Compulsory driving tests for people who aren't sure if they are well enough to drive or can see.
Look at most western nations (including the UK) GDP per capita since the GFC. Static at best. Immigrants tend to get the blame but may not be the cause. Populists benefit from that.
However, none of the main parties are offering an explanation or a solution. Farage, albeit crudely, is.
The Thatcher and Major administrations did.
Some of you need to reframe your thinking. If they have a brain, they know they are hated by most and almost certainly can’t win. The max target is 30% (or a bit more with a miracle), limit the Labour win or (on the best day, with a lot of luck, and weird other vote transfers) force NOM.
This line of thinking is what is destroying the Uk. Birth rates are well below replacement rates !! Why can’t you see this is the countries biggest long-term problem?
Is Tim planning on not being around long?
Starmer has been cautious up until now, he may be more radical in office and face consequences in public support, but that's the fate of all winners. That he may find things more difficult and lose support later is not an unsurprising idea.
If a new dish comes out, then, well.. there are more choices.
A poet of note, Prasannan
Wrote a poem for Bananamanan
It said "I just feel
That you've got the appeal.
Lots of love, your number one fanananan"
Plus there are an awful lot of 50:50 Tories out there. They want the Tories to be punished - but not at the expense of a Labour government. Maybe scaring them shitless with polling in the 20's might be enough to jerk the choke chain. Then the polling-booth pencil muscle memory kicks in - and they return to type.
When you drill down on the doorstep with "former" Tories, as adamant as they might be the Government doesn't deserve their vote, by the time you have had a chat, a significant portion indicate they will likely vote Conservative on the day. Now, that might be because we have a highly regarded candidate who has been a solid, hard-working constituency MP. Or it might be down to my superior sales patter. But I still think there is a good 6%-8% that can still be turned around in the remains of this campaign.
😂
I'm not keen on the extent to which politicians outsource aspects of their job to others, or at waving a chequebook at personal frailty. But some of the main victims are the polticians themselves, because they arrive at the top seriously undercooked.
Anyway it is only 3 weeks tomorrow so as 'tempus fugit' it will really start for Starmer the day after
This is the reality of what Starmer will have to work with, an unproductive weak growth economy with far too many people are economically inactive. This is not 1997.
https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Sky_VI_240611.pdf
I feel that this is an appropriate moment to offer a verse in his honour, but am struggling with booze-induced writer's block. I can practically feel your disappointment. But such is life.
If it's different now why should it be the same in the future?
The fact we've been governed into the ground by Thatcherism and its cosplay version for 45 years, rather than by social/Christian democratic consensus?
Now I think about it the only real two serious characters are, I think, Hague and Gove.
He got a bit obsessed with Angelina Jolie whilst Foreign Secretary but Hague is the only one I think who had the ability to think round corners and make lucid arguments.
He'd probably have neither run down our defences and courts, and would probably have delivered on Bloomberg - were it not for the 2001GE cutting him off at the knees.
Having not seen the original Broadcast, the clips shown looked unremarkable.
the disaster that current polls indicate, mostly because of the 'my local candidate is a good'un' conceit.
"I didn't ask to be born. Especially not to provide for you in older age, when you are doubly incontitent...."
A new party Front Judea comes in with 100% of the vote
Labour 0%
Tories 0%
Reform 0%
Sunak talks the talk - I did Furlough. But the problem is that h isn't rooted in reality. Listen to him tonight. In denial about tax. In denial about migration. In denial about inflation.
Your party are lying to people. Saying they have cut taxes as everyone sees taxes going up. Says they have got inflation under control as costs continue to go mad. Says migration is down as it rises. That waiting lists are down as they rise. That migration is reducing as it increases.
Compare and contrast with Farage. You may hate his solutions. His style. His dog-whistling, But it is all rooted in reality.
What happened to the Conservative Party? It isn't just this lot. Its Fuck Business. Its we've had enough of experts. Its denial of the impacts of the Brexit deal on farming and fishing and industry. Whatever happened to capitalism? Of investment? Of good money management?
The countries came to an agreement on Wednesday after significant pressure from the US, which has argued the profits from Russian assets should be used to secure loans for Kyiv. The US separately said it would sign a security agreement with Kyiv to lock in American support for a decade.
https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/ed0708a1123367955ac410bb7c43de9ddff8d0c8/0_0_5456_3640/master/5456.jpg?width=700&dpr=2&s=none
Social Democratic Party Manifesto
- Title – Homecoming – not sure why that is the case,
- Quote from R. H. Tawney, never heard of him.
- 36 pages only, so light on detail.
- Design is good – simple headings (unlike the tortured Green and Tory headings), with intro paragraphs and then bullet point lists for each one.
Foreword – theme of family, neighbourhood, and nation. Government addicted to short term fixes. Problems have cultural causes.Constitution –
- English parliament outside London (note – this the first policy in the whole thing, which is interesting start, feels like constitutional stuff is a wonk concern), PR with multi member constituencies under D’Hondt, Bill of Rights, reintroduce Law Lords and abolish supreme court. Hereditary peers and bishops abolished and no political honours, new house of 400 peers to serve for 15 years.
- Withdraw from ECHR, Council of Europe, Refugee Convention
- Additional regional bodies and tax raising for local authorities
Government reform – Nolan principles to be upheld, EDI roles to be abolished, public sector to appoint on merit, defund many public bodies, replace senior civil servants if departments do not deliver on quarterly performance metrics based on surveys of taxpayersLocal government – enhance role of parish and community councils, increase capacity of core services, national audit to benchmark council performance and send data to all households before elections. No officer to be paid more than the PM. PCCs abolished, national corruption office to investigate allegations of local government fraud
Governance of national enterprises – Natural monopolies under government ownership, annual business plans, board members must have experience in industry but cannot have any financial interest in it.
Scottish referendum – they’re against one (but say it in 4 ways)
Social Market economy – railways, water, gas, transportation, electricity into public ownership. National Development bank. Public expenditure at 40% GDP
Industry – national industry strategy, british development board, Buy british bill, Works Council
International trade – aim to reduce trade deficit. Tax advantaged free ports, respect state aid provisions
Taxation – OECD regime for minimum rates of taxation implemented. Annual allowance restored to all income levels. Vacant property tax. Online purchases tax.
Transport – nationalize rail. Great northern railway network funded by the scaling back of HS2. Fund bus travel. Contactless payment uk wide for all public travel.licence tests for e-scooters. Landing fee tax for private jets.
Reminder: Net, California has been losing population, under its current leadership. Here's a recent example of some less-than-optimal results, that may help explain why people are leaving:
"In March last year, California Gov. Gavin Newsom promised 1,200 tiny homes to temporarily house homeless people, specifically those who already live in encampments, in four major regions across the Golden State.
. . . .
Yet a year after the governor’s announcement, the tiny homes have not housed a single resident, and only about 150 of them have even been purchased by the state and cities so far. Changing parameters from the state, along with other bureaucratic delays, are to blame for the standstill."
source: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/california-s-homelessness-solution-is-a-1-billion-deal-for-1-200-tiny-homes-that-might-not-even-come-with-a-bathroom/ar-BB1o2rYG?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=f9bc7dd2ca5946bbaa873ad55cd2f77c&ei=27
So why are the young in this country overwhelmingly of the Left and the old of the Right? To an extent not seen in any other developed nation?
The challenges faced by every country are pretty much the same: competition from emerging markets for resources, shitty demographics and insufficient housing provision leading to costs rising faster than incomes.
And this has been compounded by countries attempting to solve the second issue via immigration and lying.
None of the political parties are honest about the challenges facing the UK, either because they don't understand them, or because they fear that concentrating on the negatives wouldn't do them any favours with the electorate.
Neither the Faragist Right, nor the Corbyn Left has solutions. Heck, it's not even clear they understand what the problems are.
Above all, we need to pay our way in the world. Because the willingness of the rest of the world to lend us money to pay for us to import things we don't make and don't need is not unlimited.
Meet kittens with katanas
In our multiverse.
Pensions,welfare and social security - National resilience strategy. Long term unemployment abolished – local authorities to employ people for civic improvement projects. State pension increased in sustainable metric based way not political reasons (note – means nothing). National insurance ID cards for all citizens.
Tech regulation – age control for smart phones for under 16s. banned in school. Strengthen online safety act. Advertising online gambling banned. Legal age to access pornography raised to 18 (note – it isn’t already?)
Sex based rights – sex segregation in sport, prisons, women’s refuges. Medical gatekeeping for trans.
Defence – 2.5% GDP. Overhaul defence procurement (note – everyone promises this). 10 days leave for reservists. Increase MI5 and NCA spending. Restore the offence of sedition and pursue inciters of terrorism.
Foreign affairs – No intervention unless direct threat to national security. Review all international treaties and withdraw if appropriate. Defence pact sought with Canada, NZ, and Aus. Forestall Chinese control of uk infrastructure. Get rid of 0.7% overseas aid. Supportive of Russia (note - says condemns ‘self defeating’ invasion and supports resistance, but pushes for cessation of military activity, ie allow Russia to hold its gains).
Crime and Justice – increase front line police resources significantly (note – no detail). Courts funding so justice no later than 3 months after charge. Sentences for repeat offenders to double. 3 strikes law for serious offences. Anyone released from prison given a job with a partner employer at minimum wage funded by government, if they have no job to go to. Deport and bar foreign cannibals. On the spot fines for cannabis use.
He hasn't learned the skills other politicians learned either in opposition or having to fight their way to the top over a long period in which they have constantly had to prove themselves in different roles.
Something similar happened with the New Labour SpAds turned politicians in that they got so used to following a template that had been successful for Blair and Brown, that they looked clueless when Britain had got fed up with them.
Or conversely, you can look at Starmer - who is far from a natural politician. But entered into politics in possibly the worst period in Labour's modern history if you were on the centre-left. He appears to have been hardened by it into having fairly sound judgment about the fundamentals of Labour's positioning and who it listens to (not puffed up Guardian columnists), even while lacking the flair to make that exciting.
He's learned some useful political skills by having to negotiate and repair Labour being a basketcase and seemingly out of power for the foreseeable he really wouldn't have if he'd arrived as Keir Starmer QC in 2001 or 2005 as a Blair or Brown protege.
If people are struggling to get on the housing ladder, instead of looking at the structural causes, you just have a policy called "Help to Buy" and ignore the 101 other things you're doing that make the problem worse.
This isn't something that began in 2016.