When political betting can get you into trouble – politicalbetting.com
Comments
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Yes, you can still watch off the top of the stands at Ludlow. The view to Titterstone Clee and to Wenlock Edge is one of the finest views in England. Life affirming! I’ve only been to Plumpton once but I enjoyed it.stodge said:
At last, a proper subject for debate.Monksfield said:
I agree with your assessments of Sandown and Ascot. Sandown is top drawer viewing. Ascot gets away with it for the jumps. Newbury is a car crash.Peter_the_Punter said:
To me the flat was always just a way of passing time through the summer until the proper stuff started.stodge said:
You seem to speak from experience.Peter_the_Punter said:
A very thin excuse for a jolly if you ask me, Stodge.stodge said:Evening all
I was wondering where the Labour activists in East London would go given there aren't too many marginal seats in the vicinity (apart from East Ham and its 33,000 majority of course).
Would they go to Romford or to Hornchurch & Upminster?
It seems not - the Newham Mayor and the Labour candidates for Stratford & Bow and West Ham & Beckton have headed to Colchester.
https://www.opennewham.co.uk/news/the-west-ham-and-beckton-campaign-is-getting-personal
James Cracknell, the new Conservative candidate, is defending a 9,400 majority - Labour needs a swing of 8.8% to take the seat so should be quite achievable on current numbers. It is the 136th most marginal Conservvative seat (or the 236th safest if you prefer).
Colchester can be pretty wild on a Wednesday night.
I wouldn't know - one place I wouldn't be next Wednesday is Ascot. I can't remember if Flat racing was your interest or whether it was the jumps.
It'll be a welcome break from the election to do some proper punting.
Always hated Ascot. The rebuild was a disaster. For flat racing, you can't see anything unless you are in the Royal Box. Perversely it wasn't so bad for the jumps because you had such small crowds you could easily find a decent spot. They always treated us jumps fans as plebs though, so I generally avoided the place.
I was always a Sandown man. Has everything, although it is probably due for a rebuild soon.
But I’m a Ludlow man first and foremost. Tremendous view off the stands.
Do they still allow you on the roof of the stand at Ludlow? One of the best views of jump racing anywhjere.
I'm not a fan of Ascot either and PtP is quite right about the rebuild. I went to the freebie organised by the Racegoers Club and it reminded me of a vast aircraft hanger. There used to be a lovely members room with wicker chairs and free hot food for reciprocal guests - Ascot back then was a class act.
Sandown viewing is first rate but it was designed to be a good viewing track. If you can get altitude Epsom is very good but I love Plumpton as you're close to the action as you are at Fontwell and down the Abbot.
My personal favourite is Goodwood on a fine sunny day from the top of the Sussex Stand - exceptional backdrop and view.
My favourite jewel in the rough is NH at Leicester. Went with no expectations but it’s a great course to watch at.0 -
There’s two aspects to this. Firstly everyone seems to sick of the Tories and Sunak is not a great PM (or even an average one). The other is that to be in the audience you are likely pretty politically engaged. I’m sure they’ve tried to balance the voting intentions, but there will be plenty of tribal activists in there, just like the weekly BBC question time audience.Stereodog said:I thought the audience reaction to Starmer was occasionally bad but this is so much worse for Sunak. The audience are just laughing and jeering.
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Representative presumably?MoonRabbit said:
Just one tiny audience.Heathener said:Jeers and getting shouted down.
It’s getting a bit brutal isn’t it?
The Conservative’s polling suggests so.0 -
this is why I've been stunned at how many PBers have been saying the Tories will end up on 200-250 or thereabouts - a lot of people seem a lot more angry than in previous elections.Stereodog said:I thought the audience reaction to Starmer was occasionally bad but this is so much worse for Sunak. The audience are just laughing and jeering.
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On the net migration questions Sunak just looks utterly broken.1
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I don't really agree with idea that audiences can heckle etc. Its not a comedy show.
They should absolutely be allowed to ask a question and the politician should be expected to have back and forth with them i.e. not just take the question and go thanks Janice, and them never have the ability to dispute / follow up.1 -
Lib Dems 10% and Others 13% in that pollTimS said:
That implies either Green or LD are significantly up.MikeL said:
Changes:Heathener said:People Polling drops
Lab 39
Con 19
Reform 17
https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1800960821763178604
Apologies if this was mentioned ages ago
Lab 39 (-7)
Con 19 (-1)
Ref 17 (+3)1 -
Pantomime audiences make political stuff unwatchableturbotubbs said:
There’s two aspects to this. Firstly everyone seems to sick of the Tories and Sunak is not a great PM (or even an average one). The other is that to be in the audience you are likely pretty politically engaged. I’m sure they’ve tried to balance the voting intentions, but there will be plenty of tribal activists in there, just like the weekly BBC question time audience.Stereodog said:I thought the audience reaction to Starmer was occasionally bad but this is so much worse for Sunak. The audience are just laughing and jeering.
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This leadership performance from Sunak tonight is a disgrace.
Everything about him is he doesn’t want to be there. Or doing this election.
Right here, right now, you can see why he called it early.0 -
I'm not watching this because for me it seems pointless.0
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Irrespective of the Tory woes (and being below 20 is a massive woe, when the floor was meant to be 30), Labour do seem to be drifting down. Not suprising as the public is finally paying attention to politics for a bit.MikeL said:
Changes:Heathener said:People Polling drops
Lab 39
Con 19
Reform 17
https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1800960821763178604
Apologies if this was mentioned ages ago
Lab 39 (-7)
Con 19 (-1)
Ref 17 (+3)0 -
It is so outrageously, demonstrably untrue it is utterly contemptible. The way we treat our ex-servicemen is beyond evil. Fo this absurd lie alone, Sunak should face obliteration.williamglenn said:Sunak repeats the weird line about being "the best country in the world to be a veteran".
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I think a lot of people are just very angry at the moment. Sounded like an outburst.FrancisUrquhart said:I don't really agree with idea that audiences can heckle etc. Its not a comedy show.
They should absolutely be allowed to ask a question and the politician should be expected to have back and forth with them i.e. not just take the question and go thanks Janice, and them never have the ability to dispute / follow up.0 -
California Dreamin'.MoonRabbit said:This leadership performance from Sunak tonight is a disgrace.
Everything about him is he doesn’t want to be there. Or doing this election.
Right here, right now, you can see why he called it early.0 -
As you are doubling down on this, Hackney has less than 18,000 Jewish people total. Diane Abbott got 39,000 votes in GE19. Conservatives 7,000. If all Hackney's Jewish population lives in North, and they are all adults and they all voted Labour in GE19, and they all vote Conservative in GE24, then the Tories would win by 4,000. Seems like a lot of ifs.franklyn said:
How much is your bet, EPG? Largest orthodox community in EuropeEPG said:
Before anyone rushes to follow you, I am pretty sure there aren't 30,000 Jews in Hackney North.franklyn said:Someone was asking yesterday about constituencies where there might be odd results.
May I give you two possible examples
1. Bromsgrove where Dr David Nicholl is a very well known local personality and already on the Council. Apparently the Labour candidate did a no show at the hustings last night.
I have put some money on David at 150-1 on Ladbrokes
2. Hackney North, which has 30,000 ultraorthodox Jews in the constituency and one of their own is standing for the Conservatives. At 50-1 on Bet365
I have put my money where my mouth is on both.
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If you know his address, you might be able to spot a dish from satellite imagery from the period. Although that doesn't prove he was a subscriber of course.Tweedledee said:What we need now is a leak from Sky accounts showing a Dr Sunak of Soton paying the premium sub covering the extra telly in your son's bedroom throughout the 90s
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Kind of morbidly wish I was now.BatteryCorrectHorse said:I'm not watching this because for me it seems pointless.
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Others was 1% in their previous poll, so Greens on 12%?williamglenn said:
Lib Dems 10% and Others 13% in that pollTimS said:
That implies either Green or LD are significantly up.MikeL said:
Changes:Heathener said:People Polling drops
Lab 39
Con 19
Reform 17
https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1800960821763178604
Apologies if this was mentioned ages ago
Lab 39 (-7)
Con 19 (-1)
Ref 17 (+3)0 -
It isn’t. It’s fascinating.BatteryCorrectHorse said:I'm not watching this because for me it seems pointless.
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If they had smarts, they could have come up with a policy along the lines of the US and say if you served will we pay your university fees should you want to do it upon completion.Cicero said:
It is so outrageously, demonstrably untrue it is utterly contemptible. The way we treat our ex-servicemen is beyond evil. Fo this absurd lie alone, Sunak should face obliteration.williamglenn said:Sunak repeats the weird line about being "the best country in the world to be a veteran".
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Trend from polls seems to be Labour headed down towards 40/high 30s. Reform up, Tories stagnating in the doldrums. Still a bit of a question mark on the LDs.0
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Snp, Plaid, green, others - 3, 1, 8, 1 at a guessLostPassword said:
Others was 1% in their previous poll, so Greens on 12%?williamglenn said:
Lib Dems 10% and Others 13% in that pollTimS said:
That implies either Green or LD are significantly up.MikeL said:
Changes:Heathener said:People Polling drops
Lab 39
Con 19
Reform 17
https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1800960821763178604
Apologies if this was mentioned ages ago
Lab 39 (-7)
Con 19 (-1)
Ref 17 (+3)1 -
In five years time, it'll be Farage doing these interviews.1
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I know people say this is churn, and people going from don't know to others, but some must be going from labour to reformMikeL said:
Changes:Heathener said:People Polling drops
Lab 39
Con 19
Reform 17
https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1800960821763178604
Apologies if this was mentioned ages ago
Lab 39 (-7)
Con 19 (-1)
Ref 17 (+3)0 -
Yeah it is actually surprisingly compellingMoonRabbit said:
It isn’t. It’s fascinating.BatteryCorrectHorse said:I'm not watching this because for me it seems pointless.
Beth does have a sort-of, ‘you’re done mate’ air about her2 -
I agree, Sunak is the fall guy. Paying the full buyers remorse tab on behalf of Bullshitter Bozo and Clueless Truss. I almost feel a bit sorry for him, although he has warmed to his fate.Cleitophon said:Omg it is excruciating to watch Sunak .... it is unpleasant.
Sunak isn't brilliant as a politician, but he has been made the sin eater for the failures of the tory party in my mind.
Personally I’m not angry with Sunak. I’m angry with the Tory party for inflicting first the Johnson creature and then an incompetent like Truss on us.6 -
You think his presenting career will take off?tlg86 said:In five years time, it'll be Farage doing these interviews.
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Oh yeah. Forgot about the SNP. One of the benefits of having moved away from Scotland.wooliedyed said:
Snp, Plaid, green, others - 3, 1, 8, 1 at a guessLostPassword said:
Others was 1% in their previous poll, so Greens on 12%?williamglenn said:
Lib Dems 10% and Others 13% in that pollTimS said:
That implies either Green or LD are significantly up.MikeL said:
Changes:Heathener said:People Polling drops
Lab 39
Con 19
Reform 17
https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1800960821763178604
Apologies if this was mentioned ages ago
Lab 39 (-7)
Con 19 (-1)
Ref 17 (+3)0 -
Sunak knows it’s still going up under his manifesto. Bad moment for him here. About as convincing as Rodney selling boss eyed exploding dolls.0
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Remember as well, there were multiple providers. Early on there was BSB and Sky.ajb said:
If you know his address, you might be able to spot a dish from satellite imagery from the period. Although that doesn't prove he was a subscriber of course.Tweedledee said:What we need now is a leak from Sky accounts showing a Dr Sunak of Soton paying the premium sub covering the extra telly in your son's bedroom throughout the 90s
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From the 2021 Census:DM_Andy said:
As you are doubling down on this, Hackney has less than 18,000 Jewish people total. Diane Abbott got 39,000 votes in GE19. Conservatives 7,000. If all Hackney's Jewish population lives in North, and they are all adults and they all voted Labour in GE19, and they all vote Conservative in GE24, then the Tories would win by 4,000. Seems like a lot of ifs.franklyn said:
How much is your bet, EPG? Largest orthodox community in EuropeEPG said:
Before anyone rushes to follow you, I am pretty sure there aren't 30,000 Jews in Hackney North.franklyn said:Someone was asking yesterday about constituencies where there might be odd results.
May I give you two possible examples
1. Bromsgrove where Dr David Nicholl is a very well known local personality and already on the Council. Apparently the Labour candidate did a no show at the hustings last night.
I have put some money on David at 150-1 on Ladbrokes
2. Hackney North, which has 30,000 ultraorthodox Jews in the constituency and one of their own is standing for the Conservatives. At 50-1 on Bet365
I have put my money where my mouth is on both.
Population of Hackney North and Stoke Newington: 134200
Percentage ticking the Jewish box: 12.0%
So about 16000, not all of them of voting age. Not trivial, but not 30000.2 -
I find it objectionable that a member of the BPC is deliberately only showing Reform and not the other two, simply to make his own political point.Nunu5 said:
I know people say this is churn, and people going from don't know to others, but some must be going from labour to reformMikeL said:
Changes:Heathener said:People Polling drops
Lab 39
Con 19
Reform 17
https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1800960821763178604
Apologies if this was mentioned ages ago
Lab 39 (-7)
Con 19 (-1)
Ref 17 (+3)4 -
No I'm with Francis. The camera just panned out after a heckler was heard and you could see a mic boom being brought over his head. They're encouraging the heckling. Maybe good for engagement but this isn't fair on Sunak imo.Heathener said:
I think a lot of people are just very angry at the moment. Sounded like an outburst.FrancisUrquhart said:I don't really agree with idea that audiences can heckle etc. Its not a comedy show.
They should absolutely be allowed to ask a question and the politician should be expected to have back and forth with them i.e. not just take the question and go thanks Janice, and them never have the ability to dispute / follow up.0 -
Check thistlg86 said:In five years time, it'll be Farage doing these interviews.
Farage is genuinely popular, with some of Generation Z
https://x.com/thenorfolklion/status/1800912286204530963?s=61&t=GGp3Vs1t1kTWDiyA-odnZg0 -
Beyond evil? A touch hyperbolic! What is it that has you so riled up?Cicero said:
It is so outrageously, demonstrably untrue it is utterly contemptible. The way we treat our ex-servicemen is beyond evil. Fo this absurd lie alone, Sunak should face obliteration.williamglenn said:Sunak repeats the weird line about being "the best country in the world to be a veteran".
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Presumably she won’t be asking about covid breaches, at least.Heathener said:
Yeah it is actually surprisingly compellingMoonRabbit said:
It isn’t. It’s fascinating.BatteryCorrectHorse said:I'm not watching this because for me it seems pointless.
Beth does have a sort-of, ‘you’re done mate’ air about her2 -
Yes, they have not achieved all they wanted, but they can and (sadly) probably will be able to hold onto a lot of what they've takenin the last few years.LostPassword said:The Russians are digging trenches to consolidate their recent gains in Kharkiv Oblast. 2.5km from the international border. I guess it makes sense to force Ukraine to make a costly assault on prepared defensive positions, albeit Russia has already suffered horrendous losses in their failed offensive on this front.
Sometimes it is easy to think that Russia is doing embarrassingly badly in the war, but they're still able to inflict heavy losses on Ukraine and occupy Ukrainian territory.0 -
Beware the curve ball question.
Tell us something that will make us like you.
I eat a lot of sugar.
🤷♀️0 -
Changes from when? And is it the same methodology?MikeL said:
Changes:Heathener said:People Polling drops
Lab 39
Con 19
Reform 17
https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1800960821763178604
Apologies if this was mentioned ages ago
Lab 39 (-7)
Con 19 (-1)
Ref 17 (+3)
Agh - Goodwin's tweet is completely useless!1 -
People like you because you eat sugar.0
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Now the media got their man in Boris, they don't want to talk about COVID full stop, as people might start to think back to their coverage. 18 months in, vaccination rolled out, and it was still full on, LOCCCCKKKKDOWWWWWNN yesterday.turbotubbs said:
Presumably she won’t be asking about covid breaches, at least.Heathener said:
Yeah it is actually surprisingly compellingMoonRabbit said:
It isn’t. It’s fascinating.BatteryCorrectHorse said:I'm not watching this because for me it seems pointless.
Beth does have a sort-of, ‘you’re done mate’ air about her
There appears zero self reflection about how wrong the media got so much of COVID, and I don't mean that the situation changed, but every f##king day they couldn't read simple stats properly.0 -
Hardly disastrous for Sunak.0
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That is a MASSIVE drop in Labour VI. I said a couple of days ago they will be nervous at the slide and was decried on here, they will be more than nervous nowMikeL said:
Changes:Heathener said:People Polling drops
Lab 39
Con 19
Reform 17
https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1800960821763178604
Apologies if this was mentioned ages ago
Lab 39 (-7)
Con 19 (-1)
Ref 17 (+3)1 -
It would have taken an extraordinary politician to turn things around. An ordinary one would probably have lost. A bad politician would lose very badly, and it's where we hae ended up.Cleitophon said:Omg it is excruciating to watch Sunak .... it is unpleasant.
Sunak isn't brilliant as a politician, but he has been made the sin eater for the failures of the tory party in my mind.1 -
Goodwin holds the unenviable crown of being the only BPC pollster PBers are allowed to challenge as being disingenuous.TimS said:
I find it objectionable that a member of the BPC is deliberately only showing Reform and not the other two, simply to make his own political point.Nunu5 said:
I know people say this is churn, and people going from don't know to others, but some must be going from labour to reformMikeL said:
Changes:Heathener said:People Polling drops
Lab 39
Con 19
Reform 17
https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1800960821763178604
Apologies if this was mentioned ages ago
Lab 39 (-7)
Con 19 (-1)
Ref 17 (+3)1 -
Brutal first question.0
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The previous several polls from People Polling all had high Labour scores so this looks like a pretty hefty change. Those scores were: 46, 45, 46, 45.Nunu5 said:
I know people say this is churn, and people going from don't know to others, but some must be going from labour to reformMikeL said:
Changes:Heathener said:People Polling drops
Lab 39
Con 19
Reform 17
https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1800960821763178604
Apologies if this was mentioned ages ago
Lab 39 (-7)
Con 19 (-1)
Ref 17 (+3)
If the Tories weren't also down since the start of the campaign then you'd definitely expect some panic in Labour ranks.0 -
The "huge majority" schtick is spreading:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9rrwe0ne7ro
"Plaid urge Welsh voters to stop a 'huge Labour majority'"1 -
I think it is on basis his party and media support will be furious with this performance.Benpointer said:Hardly disastrous for Sunak.
0 -
The words tweet and is are superfluousAlsoLei said:
Changes from when? And is it the same methodology?MikeL said:
Changes:Heathener said:People Polling drops
Lab 39
Con 19
Reform 17
https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1800960821763178604
Apologies if this was mentioned ages ago
Lab 39 (-7)
Con 19 (-1)
Ref 17 (+3)
Agh - Goodwin's tweet is completely useless!
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Big shout out for support for first time buyers buying houses up to 425k. In Grimsby. And people say he's out of touch.0
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Farage is probably sitting at home absolutely loving this, just in time for Thursday's debate and before the Football comes and takes the national focus.0
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Matthew Goodwin is a moron. Why do people post anything he writes.0
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Surely everybody has a go to something that is interesting that will make people warm to you, because we all meet new people all the time and need an ice breaker...no?MoonRabbit said:Beware the curve ball question.
Tell us something that will make us like you.
I eat a lot of sugar.
🤷♀️
If you have kids, you must have a cute thing you do with your kids story.1 -
May work better for them than the Tories - ride the red wave and since it's Wales a few seats Labour voters may feel free to experiement with a bit of PC.carnforth said:The "huge majority" schtick is spreading:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9rrwe0ne7ro
"Plaid urge Welsh voters to stop a 'huge Labour majority'"0 -
Admitting to liking a bit of white powder never did Michael Gove any harm, did it?MoonRabbit said:Beware the curve ball question.
Tell us something that will make us like you.
I eat a lot of sugar.
🤷♀️0 -
We don't have stamp duty ATM, so why is this a tax cut?AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Big shout out for support for first time buyers buying houses up to 425k. In Grimsby. And people say he's out of touch.
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No. They won’t. I decried you then and I decry you now. This is a PP reversion to the mean from the stupid LAB VI they had before.Leon said:
That is a MASSIVE drop in Labour VI. I said a couple of days ago they will be nervous at the slide and was decried on here, they will be more than nervous nowMikeL said:
Changes:Heathener said:People Polling drops
Lab 39
Con 19
Reform 17
https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1800960821763178604
Apologies if this was mentioned ages ago
Lab 39 (-7)
Con 19 (-1)
Ref 17 (+3)2 -
Good answer from Sunak on NHS question.
But then he is running in that answer against his own parties record.0 -
Seeing how ex-serviceman have actually been treated. Homeless, untreated PTSD, ignored by welfare, all the old veteren networks shut down... the list is long. Then this utter twat says how great everything is... words fail me.turbotubbs said:
Beyond evil? A touch hyperbolic! What is it that has you so riled up?Cicero said:
It is so outrageously, demonstrably untrue it is utterly contemptible. The way we treat our ex-servicemen is beyond evil. Fo this absurd lie alone, Sunak should face obliteration.williamglenn said:Sunak repeats the weird line about being "the best country in the world to be a veteran".
1 -
Being trained in Roman oratory I'm not surprised Cicero may indulge in a bit of hyperbole.turbotubbs said:
Beyond evil? A touch hyperbolic! What is it that has you so riled up?Cicero said:
It is so outrageously, demonstrably untrue it is utterly contemptible. The way we treat our ex-servicemen is beyond evil. Fo this absurd lie alone, Sunak should face obliteration.williamglenn said:Sunak repeats the weird line about being "the best country in the world to be a veteran".
2 -
What debate is on tomorrow? I wasn’t aware of that.PedestrianRock said:Farage is probably sitting at home absolutely loving this, just in time for Thursday's debate and before the Football comes and takes the national focus.
0 -
TORY MAJORITY NAILED ON!Benpointer said:Hardly disastrous for Sunak.
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Of course, dear. You’re not nervous at allDougSeal said:
No. They won’t. I decried you then and I decry you now. This is a PP reversion to the mean from the stupid LAB VI they had before.Leon said:
That is a MASSIVE drop in Labour VI. I said a couple of days ago they will be nervous at the slide and was decried on here, they will be more than nervous nowMikeL said:
Changes:Heathener said:People Polling drops
Lab 39
Con 19
Reform 17
https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1800960821763178604
Apologies if this was mentioned ages ago
Lab 39 (-7)
Con 19 (-1)
Ref 17 (+3)0 -
I think he actually meant sugar.El_Capitano said:
Admitting to liking a bit of white powder never did Michael Gove any harm, did it?MoonRabbit said:Beware the curve ball question.
Tell us something that will make us like you.
I eat a lot of sugar.
🤷♀️
What’s the price of Haribo on the street.0 -
Itvs 7 way debateAnabobazina said:
What debate is on tomorrow? I wasn’t aware of that.PedestrianRock said:Farage is probably sitting at home absolutely loving this, just in time for Thursday's debate and before the Football comes and takes the national focus.
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Nah. Only if it continues into next week, AND the Tory share rises a little bitLeon said:
That is a MASSIVE drop in Labour VI. I said a couple of days ago they will be nervous at the slide and was decried on here, they will be more than nervous nowMikeL said:
Changes:Heathener said:People Polling drops
Lab 39
Con 19
Reform 17
https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1800960821763178604
Apologies if this was mentioned ages ago
Lab 39 (-7)
Con 19 (-1)
Ref 17 (+3)0 -
I thought we’d already had that?wooliedyed said:
Itvs 7 way debateAnabobazina said:
What debate is on tomorrow? I wasn’t aware of that.PedestrianRock said:Farage is probably sitting at home absolutely loving this, just in time for Thursday's debate and before the Football comes and takes the national focus.
0 -
I thought Beth was giving him an easy time and should have backed him into a corner over D Day .
He then fell apart when it came to his pledges . And Beth was even kind to him about growth . Sunak came across as tetchy and putting on a fake smile .0 -
He's not bringing the tax back, so he's selling it as a cut.Daveyboy1961 said:
We don't have stamp duty ATM, so why is this a tax cut?AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Big shout out for support for first time buyers buying houses up to 425k. In Grimsby. And people say he's out of touch.
0 -
Maybe, but it's like a job interview style what is your main weakness question, easy to muck up.FrancisUrquhart said:
Surely everybody has a go to something that is interesting that will make people warm to you, because we all meet new people all the time and need an ice breaker...no?MoonRabbit said:Beware the curve ball question.
Tell us something that will make us like you.
I eat a lot of sugar.
🤷♀️
If you have kids, you must have a cute thing you do with your kids story.
"I'm really smart" might be a real reason for people to like him, but it'd look terrible to some no doubt. Say he likes some popular tv show or musician and probably get railed at by the creators for being a horrible Tory.0 -
I think you'll need to expand on that.BatteryCorrectHorse said:Matthew Goodwin is a moron. Why do people post anything he writes.
0 -
Sunak does the weird grin when he is nervous / under pressure.nico679 said:I thought Beth was giving him an easy time and should have backed him into a corner over D Day .
He then fell apart when it came to his pledges . And Beth was even kind to him about growth . Sunak came across as tetchy and putting on a fake smile .0 -
I think we forget how much of UKIP's vote came from Labour voters.
Why can't the same happen again?0 -
Bbc? It's whichever one the other one wasn't lolAnabobazina said:
I thought we’d already had that?wooliedyed said:
Itvs 7 way debateAnabobazina said:
What debate is on tomorrow? I wasn’t aware of that.PedestrianRock said:Farage is probably sitting at home absolutely loving this, just in time for Thursday's debate and before the Football comes and takes the national focus.
0 -
I’d be shocked if Sunak wins this in the viewers poll.3
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If the numbers are going to Reform and Lib Dems, Labour's biggest worry will what they do with their even larger majority.Leon said:
That is a MASSIVE drop in Labour VI. I said a couple of days ago they will be nervous at the slide and was decried on here, they will be more than nervous nowMikeL said:
Changes:Heathener said:People Polling drops
Lab 39
Con 19
Reform 17
https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1800960821763178604
Apologies if this was mentioned ages ago
Lab 39 (-7)
Con 19 (-1)
Ref 17 (+3)1 -
He is the failure of the Tory Party. He was Chancellor through the wasted Boris years and has done the square root of FA since becoming PM. Now he's finishing the party off as a force in parliament with his stupid 'I'm off to America' election.Cleitophon said:Omg it is excruciating to watch Sunak .... it is unpleasant.
Sunak isn't brilliant as a politician, but he has been made the sin eater for the failures of the tory party in my mind.0 -
Can we rewatch these anywhere? I missed Starmer.
I realise this could fall into 'LMGTFY' but I have tried, honest!0 -
Homelessness is not a simple fix though, is it, nor is PTSD. As to veterans networks - are you claiming the Tories closed things down?Cicero said:
Seeing how ex-serviceman have actually been treated. Homeless, untreated PTSD, ignored by welfare, all the old veteren networks shut down... the list is long. Then this utter twat says how great everything is... words fail me.turbotubbs said:
Beyond evil? A touch hyperbolic! What is it that has you so riled up?Cicero said:
It is so outrageously, demonstrably untrue it is utterly contemptible. The way we treat our ex-servicemen is beyond evil. Fo this absurd lie alone, Sunak should face obliteration.williamglenn said:Sunak repeats the weird line about being "the best country in the world to be a veteran".
I’m not agreeing with Sunak - he’s taking a few small changes and claiming a huge amount, but you might be being a touch harsh.0 -
It might be the case were Labour bleeding votes to the Tories. But they can still afford to lose much more and come out with a comfortable majority.Leon said:
That is a MASSIVE drop in Labour VI. I said a couple of days ago they will be nervous at the slide and was decried on here, they will be more than nervous nowMikeL said:
Changes:Heathener said:People Polling drops
Lab 39
Con 19
Reform 17
https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1800960821763178604
Apologies if this was mentioned ages ago
Lab 39 (-7)
Con 19 (-1)
Ref 17 (+3)
And Labour haven't even launched their manifesto yet - they'll probably see a bounce from that too.1 -
I’ve decided. I really hope Reform kills off the Conservative Party at this election. The Conservatives have to die ( ex-councillor and constituency association chairman).6
-
If you look back you’ll find lots of Labour posters laughing at the stratospheric Labour numbers the ludicrous Goodwin was posting a few weeks back.Leon said:
Of course, dear. You’re not nervous at allDougSeal said:
No. They won’t. I decried you then and I decry you now. This is a PP reversion to the mean from the stupid LAB VI they had before.Leon said:
That is a MASSIVE drop in Labour VI. I said a couple of days ago they will be nervous at the slide and was decried on here, they will be more than nervous nowMikeL said:
Changes:Heathener said:People Polling drops
Lab 39
Con 19
Reform 17
https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1800960821763178604
Apologies if this was mentioned ages ago
Lab 39 (-7)
Con 19 (-1)
Ref 17 (+3)
Labour have lost 3 points or so this week. Not cause for any panic.0 -
When a politician says they like a band or tv show and the people in involved in it spit their dummy, it looks worse on them than it does the politician. It looks petty and also make them appear like they don't actually want anybody but those with a very narrow politician view to enjoy their art. Its basket of deplorables stuff.kle4 said:
Maybe, but it's like a job interview style what is your main weakness question, easy to muck up.FrancisUrquhart said:
Surely everybody has a go to something that is interesting that will make people warm to you, because we all meet new people all the time and need an ice breaker...no?MoonRabbit said:Beware the curve ball question.
Tell us something that will make us like you.
I eat a lot of sugar.
🤷♀️
If you have kids, you must have a cute thing you do with your kids story.
"I'm really smart" might be a real reason for people to like him, but it'd look terrible to some no doubt. Say he likes some popular tv show or musician and probably get railed at by the creators for being a horrible Tory.
And as we are seeing with Doctor Who ratings, not sure it works out well in the end telling people not to watch it and to go touch grass.0 -
Given that I don't think there's a particularly strong attachment to voting for Labour, as opposed to voting against the Tories, I think there's a real chance this could save a very large number of Tory seats, and maybe even bring about a Hung Parliament.carnforth said:The "huge majority" schtick is spreading:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9rrwe0ne7ro
"Plaid urge Welsh voters to stop a 'huge Labour majority'"
It's a fascinating example of how voting intentions in FPTP are distorted by how people think other people will vote, and how they balance what they want to vote for, as opposed to what they want to vote against.0 -
It could. But when Labour are running so far ahead and Reform are pitching much more to Tory voters than Labour, a) will it? b) even if it does, they are so far ahead will it prevent a win?Nunu5 said:I think we forget how much of UKIP's vote came from Labour voters.
Why can't the same happen again?0 -
Vote Conservative. Because we're not sweet enough already.Tweedledee said:People like you because you eat sugar.
0 -
The audience questions have been very good.
NB I never watch these kinds of things. Haven’t seen Question Time.0 -
It's on YouTube, https://youtu.be/vGcVqGfvI8U You can start at the beginning and watch at double speed.maxh said:Can we rewatch these anywhere? I missed Starmer.
I realise this could fall into 'LMGTFY' but I have tried, honest!0 -
Frankly while they enjoy a gap of over 20% over their nearest rival they won’t be particularly perturbed.Leon said:
That is a MASSIVE drop in Labour VI. I said a couple of days ago they will be nervous at the slide and was decried on here, they will be more than nervous nowMikeL said:
Changes:Heathener said:People Polling drops
Lab 39
Con 19
Reform 17
https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1800960821763178604
Apologies if this was mentioned ages ago
Lab 39 (-7)
Con 19 (-1)
Ref 17 (+3)
If the Tories pulled it back a little and we saw something like 38/28 then yes there would be a need to worry.
Or if Farage does manage his leapfrog and you get Ref in the mid 20s. Baxter thinks Ref have to be getting into the high 20s before they start winning a significant number of seats - in actuality, given their vote is quite concentrated in certain areas a score like that would start really throwing up some wacky results all over the place and I suspect net them a decent haul.1 -
You can also run the slider on Sky News live back to the beginning - online I meanDM_Andy said:
It's on YouTube, https://youtu.be/vGcVqGfvI8U You can start at the beginning and watch at double speed.maxh said:Can we rewatch these anywhere? I missed Starmer.
I realise this could fall into 'LMGTFY' but I have tried, honest!
https://news.sky.com/
0 -
Ever? Add in a lack of knowledge of To The Manor Born and I’m starting to think you just don’t watch TV at all!Heathener said:The audience questions have been very good.
NB I never watch these kinds of things. Haven’t seen Question Time.0 -
Why is a pollster who only releases the figure for LAB, CON and REF in the BPC. Can we have even a smidgen of other data?1
-
Labour haven’t won a general election in about six centuries. They are nervous congenitally. They are also used to surprising defeats by the Tories, it’s in their DNA. See the entire commentary of @SouthamObserver passim, it’s either massive anxiety attacks or overly cheerful whistling and wishcastingNunu5 said:
Nah. Only if it continues into next week, AND the Tory share rises a little bitLeon said:
That is a MASSIVE drop in Labour VI. I said a couple of days ago they will be nervous at the slide and was decried on here, they will be more than nervous nowMikeL said:
Changes:Heathener said:People Polling drops
Lab 39
Con 19
Reform 17
https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1800960821763178604
Apologies if this was mentioned ages ago
Lab 39 (-7)
Con 19 (-1)
Ref 17 (+3)
Don’t get me wrong, I still expect Labour to win this easily. But maybe not at as easily as we all anticipated
More pertinently, the idea a party - any party - will look at a legitimate poll and see a SEVEN point drop and just shrug and chuckle and say “Yeah, whatever, it means nothing, we’re bound to win” that is absurd. They will be wobbling in Labour HQ - and rightly - all polls show them sliding
They’re still gonna win tho3 -
What kind of numbers do you think Labour could drift out too, and (presumably) the Tories gain, to bring the majority into question?Leon said:
Of course, dear. You’re not nervous at allDougSeal said:
No. They won’t. I decried you then and I decry you now. This is a PP reversion to the mean from the stupid LAB VI they had before.Leon said:
That is a MASSIVE drop in Labour VI. I said a couple of days ago they will be nervous at the slide and was decried on here, they will be more than nervous nowMikeL said:
Changes:Heathener said:People Polling drops
Lab 39
Con 19
Reform 17
https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1800960821763178604
Apologies if this was mentioned ages ago
Lab 39 (-7)
Con 19 (-1)
Ref 17 (+3)
I'm sure if we Baxter them it will still bring a sizeable Labour majority0 -
You'd hope so, but I feel like more often than not the politician, by virtue of being less popularity than a celebrity, still takes a hit.FrancisUrquhart said:
When a politician says they like a band or tv show and the people in involved in it spit their dummy, it looks worse on them than it does the politician. It looks petty and also make them appear like they don't actually want anybody with a very narrow politician view to enjoy their art. Its basket of deplorables stuff.kle4 said:
Maybe, but it's like a job interview style what is your main weakness question, easy to muck up.FrancisUrquhart said:
Surely everybody has a go to something that is interesting that will make people warm to you, because we all meet new people all the time and need an ice breaker...no?MoonRabbit said:Beware the curve ball question.
Tell us something that will make us like you.
I eat a lot of sugar.
🤷♀️
If you have kids, you must have a cute thing you do with your kids story.
"I'm really smart" might be a real reason for people to like him, but it'd look terrible to some no doubt. Say he likes some popular tv show or musician and probably get railed at by the creators for being a horrible Tory.0 -
@Benpointer has a nice preview of your wish coming true:Sean_F said:I’ve decided. I really hope Reform kills off the Conservative Party at this election. The Conservatives have to die ( ex-councillor and constituency association chairman).
https://x.com/TorinPhable/status/18002261990479012923 -
It’s hard to find Sky programmes on catch up. I am a subscriber on Virgin cable and don’t have that facility as far as I know.maxh said:Can we rewatch these anywhere? I missed Starmer.
I realise this could fall into 'LMGTFY' but I have tried, honest!0 -
What odds this Tory doesn't turn out to be a Tory?0
