When political betting can get you into trouble – politicalbetting.com

Anabobazina said:

Starmer absolutely superb on the audience Q&A. Labour’s team will be gutted this is on Sky not terrestrial telly,

I don't know how Rishi can stand the waiting for his mauling. I'd be in bits in the green room by now.

Heathener said:

If only about 5 people on pb.com are watching this, what does that mean for the general population?

How many watched the last one? Does anyone know?

5 million watched the first debate between Starmer and Sunak. Which is well down on previous debates.

...

TimS said:

MoonRabbit said:

MoonRabbit said:

Here we go, Suck Here private school killer.

Rubbish answer, Starmer. He doesn’t get it.

Individual and State socialism.

Come tomorrow you’ll be back to telling us Starmer’s performance was genius.

I'm in Malta so unable to watch. Rabbit's commentary is invaluable for me. Starmer must be wishing teleportation actually existed.

No_Offence_Alan said:

MoonRabbit said:

Starmer does not rule out fuel tax rises.

And why should he? Petrol is roughly the same price as it was 12 years ago.

Because people are struggling and also we need growth in the economy. Petrol prices effect everything, as we saw when the Russia / Ukraine war broke out. Its a tax on operating a business, even if you are a service business, increased petrol prices effect you.

Unpopular said:

Anabobazina said:

Starmer absolutely superb on the audience Q&A. Labour’s team will be gutted this is on Sky not terrestrial telly,

I don't know how Rishi can stand the waiting for his mauling. I'd be in bits in the green room by now.

Always best to shoot first.

I think Starmers done well. Looking forward to Sunak

Monksfield said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

stodge said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

stodge said:

Evening all

I was wondering where the Labour activists in East London would go given there aren't too many marginal seats in the vicinity (apart from East Ham and its 33,000 majority of course).

Would they go to Romford or to Hornchurch & Upminster?

It seems not - the Newham Mayor and the Labour candidates for Stratford & Bow and West Ham & Beckton have headed to Colchester.

https://www.opennewham.co.uk/news/the-west-ham-and-beckton-campaign-is-getting-personal

James Cracknell, the new Conservative candidate, is defending a 9,400 majority - Labour needs a swing of 8.8% to take the seat so should be quite achievable on current numbers. It is the 136th most marginal Conservvative seat (or the 236th safest if you prefer).

A very thin excuse for a jolly if you ask me, Stodge.

Colchester can be pretty wild on a Wednesday night.

You seem to speak from experience.

I wouldn't know - one place I wouldn't be next Wednesday is Ascot. I can't remember if Flat racing was your interest or whether it was the jumps.

It'll be a welcome break from the election to do some proper punting.

To me the flat was always just a way of passing time through the summer until the proper stuff started.

Always hated Ascot. The rebuild was a disaster. For flat racing, you can't see anything unless you are in the Royal Box. Perversely it wasn't so bad for the jumps because you had such small crowds you could easily find a decent spot. They always treated us jumps fans as plebs though, so I generally avoided the place.

I was always a Sandown man. Has everything, although it is probably due for a rebuild soon.

I agree with your assessments of Sandown and Ascot. Sandown is top drawer viewing. Ascot gets away with it for the jumps. Newbury is a car crash.

But I’m a Ludlow man first and foremost. Tremendous view off the stands.

Royal Ascot next week, of course, Tuesday to Saturday. The weather forecast is not too promising.

Heathener said:

“Putting down roots” when talking about dentistry

That was just a filler question.

MoonRabbit said:

nico679 said:

Starmer coming into his own now after the earlier Rigby mauling .

Couldn’t compute the robot question.

Called out as not answering questions.

That was his worst answer so far. There was a far better and more honest one at his fingertips. He could have said that when you become party leader you realise that every word you say can have massive consequences and can even move markets, so you end up more cautious with what you’re saying. But that he recognises this and will try to make sure they see the real him.

Starmer seems to struggle with the grand inspirational stuff. I thought his answers on the bread and butter issues were pretty good but he struggled with the penultimate question about not being a political robot. He’s the anti Boris in that respect.

MoonRabbit said:

Unpopular said:

Anabobazina said:

Starmer absolutely superb on the audience Q&A. Labour’s team will be gutted this is on Sky not terrestrial telly,

I don't know how Rishi can stand the waiting for his mauling. I'd be in bits in the green room by now.

Always best to shoot first.

Hmmm, if I were him I'd be watching the savaging Rigby gave Starmer with absolute dread.

Heathener said:

Mexicanpete said:

...

TimS said:

MoonRabbit said:

MoonRabbit said:

Here we go, Suck Here private school killer.

Rubbish answer, Starmer. He doesn’t get it.

Individual and State socialism.

Come tomorrow you’ll be back to telling us Starmer’s performance was genius.

I'm in Malta so unable to watch. Rabbit's commentary is invaluable for me. Starmer must be wishing teleportation actually existed.

I could tell you how to watch it in Malta but I’d better not …

I'm out dining. I can get away with dipping in and out of PB but watching Sky won't cut it.

TimS said:

MoonRabbit said:

nico679 said:

Starmer coming into his own now after the earlier Rigby mauling .

Couldn’t compute the robot question.

Called out as not answering questions.

That was his worst answer so far. There was a far better and more honest one at his fingertips. He could have said that when you become party leader you realise that every word you say can have massive consequences and can even move markets, so you end up more cautious with what you’re saying. But that he recognises this and will try to make sure they see the real him.

That would have been a brilliant answer

Mexicanpete said:

...

TimS said:

MoonRabbit said:

MoonRabbit said:

Here we go, Suck Here private school killer.

Rubbish answer, Starmer. He doesn’t get it.

Individual and State socialism.

Come tomorrow you’ll be back to telling us Starmer’s performance was genius.

I'm in Malta so unable to watch. Rabbit's commentary is invaluable for me. Starmer must be wishing teleportation actually existed.

He did well! Especially with the audience questions. Rigby was a bit repetitive but far better than Etchingham in Debate I.

FrancisUrquhart said:

tlg86 said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

MoonRabbit said:

Starmer does not rule out fuel tax rises.

And why should he? Petrol is roughly the same price as it was 12 years ago.

The tricky thing for whoever is in power is that tax from petrol is going to vanish over the next decade. Beth Rigby saying how much the government could milk it for completely misses this point.

Its obvious we will get price per mile.

That'll go down like a bucket of cold sick.

MoonRabbit said:

Unpopular said:

MoonRabbit said:

MoonRabbit said:

Here we go, Suck Here private school killer.

Rubbish answer, Starmer. He doesn’t get it.

Individual and State socialism.

I'm a few minutes behind now, but Starmer seems to be connecting well with the general public. He seems to be dealing with the VAT question pretty well and, sensitively.

His politics just doesn’t understand aspiration though, does it. State or nothing.

That’s just crap. Understanding aspiration is an entirely different matter to allowing covert subsidies to an element of the education sector that benefits a very narrow selectorate.

FrancisUrquhart said:

turbotubbs said:

MoonRabbit said:

Starmer confirms Welsh style Garden tax.

Had to Google that and see you mean paying for green waste, something I have done for around ten years. It’s not really just a Welsh thing.

I don't think it is that is it? Its this....

The Welsh Government is using satellites to spy on homeowners with big gardens, as it seeks to overhaul council tax, The Telegraph can disclose.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/05/11/welsh-labour-to-hike-council-tax-by-spying-on-homeowners/

I’m not sure - lots of references online to green waste charges as Labours garden tax too.

Mexicanpete said:

Heathener said:

Mexicanpete said:

...

TimS said:

MoonRabbit said:

MoonRabbit said:

Here we go, Suck Here private school killer.

Rubbish answer, Starmer. He doesn’t get it.

Individual and State socialism.

Come tomorrow you’ll be back to telling us Starmer’s performance was genius.

I'm in Malta so unable to watch. Rabbit's commentary is invaluable for me. Starmer must be wishing teleportation actually existed.

I could tell you how to watch it in Malta but I’d better not …

I'm out dining. I can get away with dipping in and out of PB but watching Sky won't cut it.

Ah okay! Got it. Enjoy your dinner

Tweedledee said:

Can KCIII not emergency knight Sunak to level the playing field? It feels awfully biased with all this Sir Keir this and Sir Keir that.

He'll be Lord Sunak of Omaha Beach in a month's time so a knighthood would seem superfluous.

Here’s Sunak’s Uriah creep fake D Day apology again 🤮

What sort of leader begs for hearts to forgive his mistake.

tlg86 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

tlg86 said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

MoonRabbit said:

Starmer does not rule out fuel tax rises.

And why should he? Petrol is roughly the same price as it was 12 years ago.

The tricky thing for whoever is in power is that tax from petrol is going to vanish over the next decade. Beth Rigby saying how much the government could milk it for completely misses this point.

Its obvious we will get price per mile.

That'll go down like a bucket of cold sick.

We already do, really. Drive more, use more fuel, pay more tax on fuel.

turbotubbs said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

turbotubbs said:

MoonRabbit said:

Starmer confirms Welsh style Garden tax.

Had to Google that and see you mean paying for green waste, something I have done for around ten years. It’s not really just a Welsh thing.

I don't think it is that is it? Its this....

The Welsh Government is using satellites to spy on homeowners with big gardens, as it seeks to overhaul council tax, The Telegraph can disclose.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/05/11/welsh-labour-to-hike-council-tax-by-spying-on-homeowners/

I’m not sure - lots of references online to green waste charges as Labours garden tax too.

I am not watching, but I can't imagine that is even worthy of discussion. In terms of tax revenue its like finding a penny down the sofa.

Where as Labour are being pushed on if not NI, IC, VAT, what...and its going to be IHT, CGT, and Council tax. I presume pensions as well, but they have U-Turned on the cap (as its stupid policy).

turbotubbs said:

tlg86 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

tlg86 said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

MoonRabbit said:

Starmer does not rule out fuel tax rises.

And why should he? Petrol is roughly the same price as it was 12 years ago.

The tricky thing for whoever is in power is that tax from petrol is going to vanish over the next decade. Beth Rigby saying how much the government could milk it for completely misses this point.

Its obvious we will get price per mile.

That'll go down like a bucket of cold sick.

We already do, really. Drive more, use more fuel, pay more tax on fuel.

And that's true with leccy cars.

DM_Andy said:

The not allowed to stand in more than one constituency thing came in later than I thought (I was sure I remembered that was why Sutch didn't stand in the 1997GE as I was working Yeovil and hoping that I would get to meet him). It's in the Representation of the People Act 1983, but that clause was inserted due to the Electoral Administration Act 2006.

https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2006/22/section/22

Candidate not to stand in more than one constituency
In Schedule 1 to the 1983 Act (parliamentary elections rules), in rule 8(3) (candidate's consent to nomination), after paragraph (b) insert—
“(c)shall state that he is not a candidate at an election for any other constituency the poll for which is to be held on the same day as that for the election to which the consent relates,”.

Came into effect 1st January 2007 for England, Wales and Scotland, 1st July 2008 for Northern Ireland.

Robert Kilroy-Silk stood in multiple seats for Veritas in 2005. I think that was probably the trigger.

Stupid rule, really, since only joke candidates did it, but most of our election rules were made for stupid reasons.

Sunak sounds soooooooooooo flat.

This is a day after mauling interview.

Up your game Sunak.

What is this thing about "my track record" about. If I was on a PIP then I wouldn't be talking about my track record.

MoonRabbit said:

Here’s Sunak’s Uriah creep fake D Day apology again 🤮

What sort of leader begs for hearts to forgive his mistake.

Sounded pretty contrite to me.

ydoethur said:

DM_Andy said:

The not allowed to stand in more than one constituency thing came in later than I thought (I was sure I remembered that was why Sutch didn't stand in the 1997GE as I was working Yeovil and hoping that I would get to meet him). It's in the Representation of the People Act 1983, but that clause was inserted due to the Electoral Administration Act 2006.

https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2006/22/section/22

Candidate not to stand in more than one constituency
In Schedule 1 to the 1983 Act (parliamentary elections rules), in rule 8(3) (candidate's consent to nomination), after paragraph (b) insert—
“(c)shall state that he is not a candidate at an election for any other constituency the poll for which is to be held on the same day as that for the election to which the consent relates,”.

Came into effect 1st January 2007 for England, Wales and Scotland, 1st July 2008 for Northern Ireland.

Robert Kilroy-Silk stood in multiple seats for Veritas in 2005. I think that was probably the trigger.

Stupid rule, really, since only joke candidates did it, but most of our election rules were made for stupid reasons.

What would have happened if someone genuinely popular had done it and won in hundreds of constituencies? Would they just count as a single MP and get outvoted by the rest or could they form a one-man majority?

turbotubbs said:

Pagan2 said:

turbotubbs said:

MoonRabbit said:

Starmer confirms Welsh style Garden tax.

Had to Google that and see you mean paying for green waste, something I have done for around ten years. It’s not really just a Welsh thing.

My council charges for a green bin...I just gave it back as it is more than I can pay so all my garden wast e will now be hidden in the black bin.....so green

Ours is about a pound a week. Quite useful as although I’d love to Monty Don all our garden waste, I dont have the space of the five huge compost bins needed, or indeed the time.

Shrugs I just shove all my garden waste in the black bin now

What is Rishi doing? He sounds like he's reminiscing about some particularly formative summer in his teenage years!

FrancisUrquhart said:

turbotubbs said:

MoonRabbit said:

Starmer confirms Welsh style Garden tax.

Had to Google that and see you mean paying for green waste, something I have done for around ten years. It’s not really just a Welsh thing.

I don't think it is that is it? Its this....

The Welsh Government is using satellites to spy on homeowners with big gardens, as it seeks to overhaul council tax, The Telegraph can disclose.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/05/11/welsh-labour-to-hike-council-tax-by-spying-on-homeowners/

All they need to do is look at Google Maps and the OS commercial arm. Those get info from air photography (though Google calls it 'satellite view' which is probably where the Daily Telecomic gets its excuse).

tlg86 said:

Sunak should say "If I win from here, I'll be fucking untouchable."

You joke but if Sunak actually swore and said "This is bloody fucking difficult, and Keir won't find it any easier" or something, it would probably actually make him more popular!

"You say that you can solve the turmoil, but what do you do when the tories are the turmoil."

"With the division in the party, how do we know you will be PM even if you win with all the leadership contenders"


BRUTAL ... the interviewer chose violence.

(I thought Starmer did very well indeed)

MoonRabbit said:

Taz said:

MoonRabbit said:

Here’s Sunak’s Uriah creep fake D Day apology again 🤮

What sort of leader begs for hearts to forgive his mistake.

Sounded pretty contrite to me.

Every answer here is “but I did my best for you.” Then the sorrowful eyes.

He’s expecting us to feel sorry for him

Its the Ed Miliband...but at least I tried....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zMXrpKzzcus

Monksfield said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

stodge said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

stodge said:

Evening all

I was wondering where the Labour activists in East London would go given there aren't too many marginal seats in the vicinity (apart from East Ham and its 33,000 majority of course).

Would they go to Romford or to Hornchurch & Upminster?

It seems not - the Newham Mayor and the Labour candidates for Stratford & Bow and West Ham & Beckton have headed to Colchester.

https://www.opennewham.co.uk/news/the-west-ham-and-beckton-campaign-is-getting-personal

James Cracknell, the new Conservative candidate, is defending a 9,400 majority - Labour needs a swing of 8.8% to take the seat so should be quite achievable on current numbers. It is the 136th most marginal Conservvative seat (or the 236th safest if you prefer).

A very thin excuse for a jolly if you ask me, Stodge.

Colchester can be pretty wild on a Wednesday night.

You seem to speak from experience.

I wouldn't know - one place I wouldn't be next Wednesday is Ascot. I can't remember if Flat racing was your interest or whether it was the jumps.

It'll be a welcome break from the election to do some proper punting.

To me the flat was always just a way of passing time through the summer until the proper stuff started.

Always hated Ascot. The rebuild was a disaster. For flat racing, you can't see anything unless you are in the Royal Box. Perversely it wasn't so bad for the jumps because you had such small crowds you could easily find a decent spot. They always treated us jumps fans as plebs though, so I generally avoided the place.

I was always a Sandown man. Has everything, although it is probably due for a rebuild soon.

I agree with your assessments of Sandown and Ascot. Sandown is top drawer viewing. Ascot gets away with it for the jumps. Newbury is a car crash.

But I’m a Ludlow man first and foremost. Tremendous view off the stands.

At last, a proper subject for debate.

Do they still allow you on the roof of the stand at Ludlow? One of the best views of jump racing anywhjere.

I'm not a fan of Ascot either and PtP is quite right about the rebuild. I went to the freebie organised by the Racegoers Club and it reminded me of a vast aircraft hanger. There used to be a lovely members room with wicker chairs and free hot food for reciprocal guests - Ascot back then was a class act.

Sandown viewing is first rate but it was designed to be a good viewing track. If you can get altitude Epsom is very good but I love Plumpton as you're close to the action as you are at Fontwell and down the Abbot.

My personal favourite is Goodwood on a fine sunny day from the top of the Sussex Stand - exceptional backdrop and view.

Here we go... the audience anger is mounting.

Better answer on boats this week

Farooq said:

TimS said:

Rigby is much lower energy with Sunak. Less spark. I don’t know if it’s a deliberate more in sorrow than anger sort of thing, or she’s she’s just feeling a bit tired.

That's how it is when you're interviewing someone for a job and you already know they ain't getting it.

Going through the motions

Stupid from Sunak to blame the doctors, completely unprompted.

(By the way, I agree with @Taz that he did sound contrite about the D-Day thing.)

EPG said:

franklyn said:

Someone was asking yesterday about constituencies where there might be odd results.
May I give you two possible examples

1. Bromsgrove where Dr David Nicholl is a very well known local personality and already on the Council. Apparently the Labour candidate did a no show at the hustings last night.
I have put some money on David at 150-1 on Ladbrokes

2. Hackney North, which has 30,000 ultraorthodox Jews in the constituency and one of their own is standing for the Conservatives. At 50-1 on Bet365

I have put my money where my mouth is on both.

Before anyone rushes to follow you, I am pretty sure there aren't 30,000 Jews in Hackney North.

How much is your bet, EPG? Largest orthodox community in Europe

I’m on YouTube now. Election interviews are dull

MoonRabbit said:

Taz said:

MoonRabbit said:

Here’s Sunak’s Uriah creep fake D Day apology again 🤮

What sort of leader begs for hearts to forgive his mistake.

Sounded pretty contrite to me.

Every answer here is “but I did my best for you.” Then the sorrowful eyes.

He’s expecting us to feel sorry for him

There’s always an apposite TTOI quote.

Couple of sub 40 Labour polls now, they're obviously fine as long as the Reform and Tory shares stay fairly evenly split but it looks very unlike a Blair 43% to me now

TimS said:

Heathener said:

People Polling drops

Lab 39
Con 19
Reform 17

https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1800960821763178604

Apologies if this was mentioned ages ago

Notice he doesn’t mention Lib Dem and Green.

From the changes to LAB/CON/RFM there is +5pp (rounding permitting) to add to the LDM/GRN scores in the last poll, where each were on 8%. I think this is their first poll of the campaign.

williamglenn said:

ydoethur said:

DM_Andy said:

The not allowed to stand in more than one constituency thing came in later than I thought (I was sure I remembered that was why Sutch didn't stand in the 1997GE as I was working Yeovil and hoping that I would get to meet him). It's in the Representation of the People Act 1983, but that clause was inserted due to the Electoral Administration Act 2006.

https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2006/22/section/22

Candidate not to stand in more than one constituency
In Schedule 1 to the 1983 Act (parliamentary elections rules), in rule 8(3) (candidate's consent to nomination), after paragraph (b) insert—
“(c)shall state that he is not a candidate at an election for any other constituency the poll for which is to be held on the same day as that for the election to which the consent relates,”.

Came into effect 1st January 2007 for England, Wales and Scotland, 1st July 2008 for Northern Ireland.

Robert Kilroy-Silk stood in multiple seats for Veritas in 2005. I think that was probably the trigger.

Stupid rule, really, since only joke candidates did it, but most of our election rules were made for stupid reasons.

What would have happened if someone genuinely popular had done it and won in hundreds of constituencies? Would they just count as a single MP and get outvoted by the rest or could they form a one-man majority?

You could be elected for multiple constituencies but only sworn in for one. The rest would be declared vacant and there would be by-elections.

So, for example, in 1784 Fox was elected the MP for Tain Boroughs and also for Westminster. The Westminster result was stayed pending a 'scrutiny' which was finally abandoned in March 1785. This led to Fox being returned for Westminster and a by-election in Kirkwall.

MikeL said:

Heathener said:

People Polling drops

Lab 39
Con 19
Reform 17

https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1800960821763178604

Apologies if this was mentioned ages ago

Changes:

Lab 39 (-7)
Con 19 (-1)
Ref 17 (+3)

That implies either Green or LD are significantly up.